College Football Playoff Prediction - Josh Pate's College Football Show

0:00 prepare to be slapped in the face with the cold, hard hand of science.

0:05 Every year we go through the NFL draft

0:08 and we see all these teams that made the playoffs.

0:10 They litter the first round with all these draft picks and then

0:14 they restock the cupboards and it's like that again the next year.

0:19 But class is in session.

0:20 We have class on Sunday night here at P

0:22 State and it's not an opinion class, okay?

0:26 It's not a philosophy class.

0:28 This is hardcore science.

0:30 What if I told you we don't really even need to play the season?

0:34 We already know who's going to play in the national championship game.

0:36 Would you be interested?

0:38 Yes, you would.

0:39 Follow me here.

0:40 Again, not my opinion, science.

0:42 The past three years, 75% of the final four teams in the playoff went

0:49 on to be top five in first round draft selections.

0:55 Let me state it again.

0:56 If you were in the final four of the playoff,

1:00 you were 75% of the time about to go on to be

1:05 one of the top five teams in first round draft selections.

1:08 So, not so shockingly,

1:10 strong correlation between having the best players in the country

1:13 and making the final four in the playoff.

1:15 That all makes sense so far.

1:17 Okay, but here's what you're probably thinking.

1:20 What does that have to do with this upcoming year's college football playoff?

1:24 because the draft is going to happen after the playoff.

1:26 So, how are we supposed to know who's going to get drafted?

1:28 How are we supposed to know how many teams

1:30 are going to have how many first round draft picks?

1:33 That's where the science comes into play in the form of mock drafts.

1:37 And we got several of them.

1:39 We have accumulated or rather acquired

1:42 an accumulation of first round mock drafts.

1:45 Cooper Pagna is on the hook over CBS.

1:48 Jordan Reed at ESPN, he's on the hook tonight.

1:51 Dane Bugler from The Athletic.

1:53 Brennan Donahghue from Sharp Football.

1:55 We have taken their first round mock drafts and we have wadded all

1:59 of them up respectfully because we had to put them in a blender.

2:02 We turned the blender on minute or so.

2:07 Turned it off, poured it out, took the average of those mock drafts

2:12 and what it provided us was pretty shocking, Jesse.

2:15 Well, not really if you follow recruiting and portaling,

2:18 but it was pretty shocking in that it's crystal clear according to science,

2:23 not us, who's going to play for the national championship this year.

2:26 Now, I know some of you have kids at home and some of you

2:29 yourselves are kids at heart and you don't want this spoiled for you.

2:32 So, if you don't want to know who's going

2:34 to play in the national championship game this upcoming year,

2:39 I rarely tell you to do this, but this is probably where you want to skip ahead.

2:43 So, I'm giving you a fair warning on spoiler alerts here.

2:46 Three, two, one.

2:48 If you're still here, I assume that means you want to know who's going to play

2:52 in the national championship game this year

2:54 as proven scientifically by first round mountain drafts.

2:59 Two teams rose above the pack.

3:01 One of those teams is the University of Texas and their counterpart

3:07 in the national championship game will be the University of Oregon.

3:11 Texas in the M draft scientific community right now

3:14 averages 4.25 first round draft selections for this upcoming

3:19 cycle and Oregon is close behind with 3.75

3:22 first round picks on average this upcoming cycle.

3:26 Texas versus Oregon.

3:28 The all-time nightmare college football national championship

3:32 game for the can't crowd, the cannot crowd.

3:35 Because for everyone who tells me Steve

3:36 Sarkeesian cannot win a national championship game,

3:39 I've got someone over here on the other side of the fence that tells me,

3:42 "Oh yeah, what about Dan Lanning?

3:44 He can't win one either." And it is a fact that if they play each other,

3:48 unless there's like a a white flag parlay situation early fourth quarter,

3:52 someone's got to win a national title.

3:54 Quick 5-second timeout.

3:55 check and make sure you're subscribed to the channel.

3:57 It keeps it free.

3:58 We love you.

3:59 All right, back to the show.

4:01 So, that's going to be the matchup.

4:03 Now, if you happen to think that maybe Cooper Pagna screwed up,

4:09 maybe Jordan Reed screwed up,

4:10 cuz that's all that could happen here at this point.

4:13 If it's not Texas versus Oregon, it's because either players,

4:16 coaches, officials, or mock drafters screwed up.

4:19 Certainly not on us.

4:20 We want the credit.

4:21 We don't want the blame.

4:23 But you might be wondering in the very

4:26 very remote chance that it's not Texas versus Oregon,

4:30 who were some of the other college football playoff favorites,

4:33 how does their projection in the first round M draft average look?

4:38 Well, LSU had about two and a half players on average.

4:42 Bama and Notre Dame two and a quarter.

4:45 Georgia's right there at two.

4:47 Ohio State, man.

4:48 Ohio State and Indiana, well, with good reason.

4:52 All their guys just got taken, so they're gonna have younger rosters this year.

4:55 Ohio State, Indiana, one and three quarters.

4:58 Is Ohio State's icon green?

5:00 Jesse, what happened to them?

5:03 What is that on?

5:05 Did Arthur Smith bring that a new color palette in?

5:08 Got a new SID up there, Jerry Emig.

5:10 Did he take the color palette with him?

5:12 Anyway, Bradley, put that old graphic back up.

5:14 I wasn't even done yet.

5:16 Throw me back the slider with the uh the averages on it.

5:19 Ohio State and Indiana were at 1.75.

5:22 Miami, Old Miss about 1.5 per piece.

5:26 Uh South Carolina is in this.

5:29 So if you're listening over there and and all hope is lost over in Myrtle Beach.

5:34 No, it's not.

5:34 First off, you're in Myrtle Beach in May.

5:37 Secondly, South Carolina's right there with the Miami

5:40 and Indiana and Ohio states of the world.

5:42 In fact, hear me tonight.

5:44 Not according to me, but according to the Cooper Pagnas and Jordan Reeds

5:49 and Dne Buglers and Brendan Donahghues of the world,

5:53 essentially a quote from them, South Carolina and Miami are the same thing.

5:59 Essentially, that is a quote from them as evidenced in their mock draft.

6:03 Uh Texas&M one total, yet they have the eighth best odds to win it all.

6:10 Michigan and USC sitting right there at about one a piece on average.

6:13 Oklahoma and Texas Tech a little bit lower than that.

6:16 Tennessee and Penn State goose egg.

6:18 Jesse, is that true?

6:20 You're going to have no guys drafted.

6:23 Roco Obeck's about to dunk on every one of y'all.

6:28 If, and look, this is a big if,

6:31 but if you feel like disagreeing with science, be my guest.

6:35 How has that worked out in history?

6:36 But if you want to disagree with science, you can go over to FanDuel right now

6:40 and you can bet against everything I just said.

6:43 You can you can absolutely bet Tennessee

6:45 to win the national championship if you want to.

6:48 And if it pans out for you, what a story you'll have to tell.

6:52 What a story you'll have to tell.

6:53 FanDuel, the exclusive odds provider of the show.

6:56 We appreciate them.

6:57 Talked a lot with FanDuel this week,

6:58 and we do every week because we're in pretty constant communication with them.

7:02 I mean, it won't be too long from now

7:04 that I'll be hitting FanDuel Mike up saying, "Hey,

7:07 putting together the JP poll for tonight." Out of curiosity,

7:11 what would Minnesota versus, I don't know, Florida State be on a neutral field?

7:17 Who amongst us hasn't ever wondered about that matchup?

7:19 Every Saturday I wake up and before I even put my contacts

7:23 in, I use one eye and I scroll index finger like this through

7:28 the eye Josh and I find the cornfield picture and I tweet it

7:33 out with a reminder of how many Saturdays we are from college football season.

7:40 Alex and allegedly producer Jesse allegedly looked at that and said,

7:47 "Well, if that means college football is coming eventually,

7:50 and we've got the P State store over here

7:53 just sitting there with infinite amounts of shelf space,

7:57 why shouldn't we put representation about college

8:02 football approaching in the store?" And then they

8:06 found out that Savannah State has recently gotten

8:09 me to watch Game of Thrones very recently.

8:13 It's a new thing.

8:13 I don't know what to think about it yet.

8:15 But what I do know is whatever winter is coming means is of secondary

8:22 concern to me at the moment because

8:24 college football coming is of primary concern.

8:27 And as you can see here, we have brand new items, not merch,

8:33 items in the Pate State store to signify that football is coming,

8:37 ladies and gentlemen.

8:38 It will be here.

8:39 Now, in the meantime, we can have a lot of fun.

8:43 Just a just a sun-filled, vacationfilled summer.

8:46 And there's also a new shirt for the Pate

8:48 State summer series just made up right now.

8:51 Uh but yeah, we got two new items in the Pate State store.

8:53 Pstatematerial.com.

8:55 Jesse predicts that the football is coming shirt

8:57 will be our biggest mover of the month.

8:59 I think you've got an unfair advantage because it's a new item.

9:02 So, I'm not betting him on it.

9:04 But yeah, I already bought the sleeveless version.

9:07 I had Alex make sleeveless versions.

9:09 By the way, I know our audience.

9:10 Jesse may not lift, but our audience lifts.