The Hill's Decision Desk 2026 - Data Nerds track Ohio, Indiana primary elections

0:06 Good Tuesday evening live from the Hill Studios in Washington DC.

0:10 This is the Hill's Decision Desk 2026 data nerds.

0:14 My name is Corey Smith and for the next 2 and 1/2 hours or so,

0:17 we're going to be talking all things Illinois or Illinois,

0:20 I'm already struggling.

0:20 Indiana and Ohio primaries.

0:24 It's a little bit late, been up for a long time this morning,

0:26 but I am not alone, thank goodness.

0:27 I've got a big gang of friends here

0:29 to walk us through both of these exciting primaries tonight.

0:32 Joining me in studio, Bill Sammons,

0:34 senior vice president of editorial at The Hill,

0:37 Chris Starwalt, political editor, The Hill,

0:39 host of The Hill Sunday as well, and Bill and Chris, you know,

0:42 Whole Hog Politics as well, and Grace Panetta, politics reporter at The 19th.

0:47 Good evening, everybody.

0:48 How we doing?

0:49 Great, my home state of Ohio back in the news.

0:52 Yes, yes, as always.

0:53 A big gubernatorial race there.

0:55 Uh a big race big races in Indiana

0:58 and we're not just talking about the federal level.

1:00 These state races in in in Indiana are juicy because of redistricting.

1:06 So, we'll get into that a little bit later on tonight,

1:08 but why don't we start in the great state of Ohio?

1:11 Uh Bill, what do you have your eyes on tonight

1:14 as we get ready for polls to close in Ohio?

1:17 Well, I'm I'm really interested in the race

1:19 that involves Nancy Kaptur because I'm from northern Ohio.

1:23 Nancy Kaptur entered Congress 43 years ago

1:28 as I was graduating from uh Miami of Ohio.

1:32 And she is now the longest-serving woman in congressional history.

1:36 She's 79 years old.

1:38 And you know, with each successive election, at least lately,

1:42 it's gotten tighter and tighter, her margin of victory.

1:44 The last time she won back in 2024,

1:47 she actually won by less than a percentage point and actually

1:50 was the first time she got less than 50% of the vote.

1:54 So, it's getting real tight up in Toledo.

1:56 And so, now there's a concern that she is

2:00 going to be possibly beaten by woman named Madison Sheehan,

2:05 uh who is the deputy was the deputy director of ICE.

2:09 She's a Republican uh and may go on to face her in the general election.

2:13 Now, Democrats think, "Oh,

2:15 this would be great because we'll have an ICE person that we can demonize,

2:18 and that way we'll get Nancy Kaptur across the finish line."

2:21 And that may or or may not end up being true,

2:24 but I tell you, as I look across the country

2:26 a lot of these races from from Maine to Michigan to Texas,

2:32 I wonder whether the old adage that, you know,

2:35 the the more controversial less candidates

2:37 don't do well in the general elections,

2:39 whether that's going to hold true this time because I got a feeling you're

2:42 going to get some real controversial people

2:44 that actually end up winning the general election.

2:47 So, I'd watch for uh Nancy Kaptur to see if this is her last rodeo.

2:52 Uh Chris, what are you watching tonight?

2:55 We don't just have to talk about Ohio.

2:56 We can of course talk about Indiana.

2:58 Uh but what's getting your goat on this Tuesday primary night?

3:01 My goat is not gotten.

3:03 Uh I'm chill.

3:04 I'm chill about it.

3:05 And as a West Virginian, I'm not I'm definitely not going to talk

3:09 about Ohio unless I talk about how they drive.

3:11 Uh I just saying.

3:15 I resemble that statement.

3:16 The the left lane is for passing, Ohio.

3:18 Just please please bear it in mind.

3:21 Um okay, so you've got these seven state Senate districts in Indiana

3:28 where these are the people who when uh President Trump said,

3:32 "You have to redistrict to get back at California,

3:36 who was getting back at Texas, you have to do it." And these state

3:41 senators acted rationally uh in Indiana political terms,

3:47 which is gerrymandering's unpopular, our state has pretty fair districts,

3:51 we're good, we're not going to do it.

3:53 So, I don't know how much money uh MAGA

3:58 uh in in the broader sense has spent here,

4:00 but we're talking about more than $10 million

4:03 probably on Indiana state Senate races, which is bananas.

4:08 Um the if you want one to watch just to keep

4:12 your keep your eye on, there's a guy named Jim Buck.

4:16 Uh he represents a Kokomo district to the so north uh of India Indianapolis.

4:23 He has been there since Orville Redenbacher was in knee socks.

4:28 Uh he is uh he he is a fixture of the Indiana state Senate,

4:32 and he voted against the Trump measure.

4:36 He's been endorsed by Mike Pence, the former congressman,

4:40 former governor of Indiana before he was vice president.

4:43 And this is probably your good core sample of how this is going to go.

4:48 And the fact that Pence has become so engaged and involved here uh

4:52 is probably worthwhile cuz it's now a test of both of their clouds.

4:56 And for your bonus points,

4:58 uh you've got a state Senate race in Michigan uh up in the thumb.

5:04 Uh well, in between the thumb uh that if

5:09 the Republicans can pull off uh if they can flip it,

5:12 it's a very narrow district.

5:14 If the Republicans can flip it,

5:15 the Democrats will lose uh trifecta control in Michigan,

5:20 and it will be a big problem for Gretchen Whitmer,

5:22 and both sides have gone big on that one there.

5:24 All right, so a little bit of a side

5:26 dish from the the co-hosts of Hold All Politics.

5:28 Uh let's uh bring Grayson.

5:30 Grayson, what are you watching uh tonight?

5:32 You're a politics reporter, you cover this stuff uh day and night.

5:35 Um what do you have your eye on as we wait for these polls to close?

5:40 Yeah, there are a few really interesting races

5:42 in addition to everything Bill and Chris just said.

5:44 Um one in other congressional primary in Indiana

5:48 that I haven't seen getting a ton of national attention,

5:50 but uh Congressman Andre Carson, long-time Democrat representing Indianapolis,

5:55 his district is the one that would have gotten split

5:58 up had the White House succeeded in its redistricting push.

6:00 He's facing um Sorry, I'm like hearing myself back.

6:10 Oh, we got a little mix minus issue.

6:11 We'll we'll get that taken care of on our side, Grace.

6:14 Um if you want to continue?

6:17 Um No, it's it's like don't worry about it.

6:19 It's it's like the real broadcaster's test.

6:21 Yeah, it can be disconcerting.

6:22 It can be disconcerting, for sure.

6:24 it's all set now.

6:25 Anyway, Andre Carson uh is facing three Democratic primary

6:28 challengers um and that's one that's going to be Okay.

6:39 Sorry.

6:40 Yes, Grace?

6:41 All right, we'll we'll we'll get we'll

6:42 get Grace figured out technical uh technically.

6:44 Um we can talk about this gubernatorial race in Ohio

6:48 because it somewhat appears that the field is set.

6:51 You're going to have uh the Vake looks like

6:52 Vivek Ramaswamy uh be the GOP uh candidate there,

6:56 of course, former uh presidential uh candidate.

7:00 Uh and it it appears that the Democrat race, you know,

7:03 no primary, so we're going to get uh an Amy Acton v.

7:06 Vivek Ramaswamy.

7:08 Um what's interesting uh and Bill, we'll come to you on this.

7:10 Uh when the word affordability started to rise

7:14 to the fore uh and really start to surface,

7:16 Vivek Ramaswamy was one of those first uh Republican um politicians to say "GOP,

7:23 we may have an issue here.

7:24 We've got to start talking about this affordability piece." And since then,

7:28 the domino effect is it's you can't go a day

7:30 in this town without talking about the word affordability.

7:32 Yeah, he was a bit of a canary in the coal mine, and he's been quite effective.

7:36 The guy is extremely articulate.

7:38 I watched an interview with him today on on one of the networks.

7:41 Um he's just very good at marshalling his facts.

7:44 The other thing I was thinking about with Vivek Ramaswamy is that you know,

7:49 I think it may have been smart of him to get out of dodge,

7:52 to get out of DC in the Trump era because what you know,

7:55 running for governor in Ohio is probably a safer place to be.

7:59 Remember Vivek ran for president briefly.

8:02 But then as you know, the the second Trump presidency got underway,

8:06 he was paired with Elon Musk at the head of Dodge and then he quickly said, "No,

8:10 actually I'm going back to Ohio run for governor."

8:12 And if you look at the people in Trump's orbit,

8:15 his immediate orbit, you're always in danger of being sort of, you know,

8:20 nuked by Trump politically.

8:21 You know, I think my friend Chris Starwalt once said is

8:25 Trump strip mines the credibility of all those around him eventually.

8:29 And I think it was probably the smart move

8:32 to go get some political experience in the governor's mansion.

8:36 Assuming he wins, I mean I think

8:37 he's probably the favorite going into the November,

8:39 but although the polls still show that it's so early.

8:43 Obviously we haven't gone through the primary,

8:44 but I think his name recognition is so high that that's got to be an advantage.

8:49 Uh another one another person running

8:51 tonight with name recognition is Sherrod Brown

8:55 trying to get back into the Senate after being beaten by Bernie Moreno.

8:59 Going to be running against the incumbent John Husted.

9:02 Uh Chris, I was listening earlier today

9:04 and and they were talking about the evolution

9:06 of Ohio over the last few decades into this sort of solidly ruby red GOP state.

9:12 Any chance that Sherrod Brown who who has a name

9:15 recognition and was somewhat of pretty popular senator in his day.

9:19 Any chance that he can get back into the fold

9:20 and beat an incumbent who is endorsed by Trump?

9:24 Sure.

9:25 Um I think you'd have to say that given how

9:30 Republican and inelastically Republican Ohio has been since 2016 really.

9:38 2012 it was still a little toss-uppy,

9:42 but it's been very solidly Republican since then and every

9:46 expectation is that will it will only get more so.

9:50 But sometimes our expectations are defeated and look,

9:55 I think I think Ramaswamy has obviously big problems.

10:00 I think that there are substantial parts of the Republican base that are

10:06 very angry about the idea of having to nominate a Hindu American.

10:12 They detractors in the Republican Party have come after him again and again.

10:17 It's been ugly.

10:19 Ramaswamy obviously as Bill says is very quick

10:23 and he's got a good lines on this stuff, but it's it's a little bit of a slog

10:27 and I'm I'm reminded of when the Republicans nominated Dr.

10:32 Oz in Pennsylvania.

10:35 And it was like I don't know if you want

10:37 to ask people in a difficult year to to ask

10:41 Pennsylvanians to to vote for the first Muslim senator

10:47 from to to go to the United States Senate.

10:50 It's unfortunate that these are characterizations

10:53 that matter still to some voters,

10:55 but I think Ramaswamy has has substantial problems.

10:59 I think Houcksted has a different problem, which is he is an unknown, right?

11:06 He's been elected statewide and if Houcksted was a Democrat

11:11 in a midterm year like this being of a shapeless void being

11:18 a dude in a suit would be good because you want

11:22 in a in a year when the wind's blowing your direction,

11:25 you just want to be a neutral choice, but I think Houcksted gets

11:29 the disadvantages of incumbency without the advantages.

11:32 All that to say I favor Republicans still in both of those races,

11:36 but this is Bill mentioned canary in a coal mine.

11:40 I think for sure Ohio is the red alert warning for Republicans.

11:46 If the polls are still this close with Democrats leading sometimes

11:50 in these races by the time we get to Labor Day,

11:53 that's going to be a a real mark of warning for Republicans across the country.

11:57 All right, we're going to try and fly this plane and build it at the same time.

12:00 Grace, give me just a quick test and let's

12:03 see if your mix minus issue has been fixed.

12:05 Yes, yes, it's all good now.

12:07 Okay, perfect.

12:09 So back to the original question that I asked you.

12:11 What are you looking at tonight?

12:13 Yes, so there's a Congressman Andre

12:15 Carson and his three Democratic primary challengers.

12:18 Obviously Indiana is a first past the post state.

12:21 It is not like some of the southern

12:23 states we've been talking about where there are run-offs.

12:25 So depending on where that vote splits, that could get interesting for sure.

12:30 And then a couple of other down ballot races in Ohio

12:33 that are kind of flying a little bit under the radar right

12:35 now is there are a number of Republican candidates running

12:39 in the primary to challenge State

12:41 Supreme Court Justice Jennifer Brunner in November.

12:44 Ohio is a state that has very partisan state

12:47 Supreme Court elections and state courts have only gotten more

12:50 and more important in the you know second Trump era

12:53 as we've seen including with the Supreme Court decision last week.

12:57 So there are a number of Republican candidates buying to challenge her.

13:00 And then there's also an interesting primary for Secretary

13:03 of State in Ohio on the Democratic side.

13:07 Ohio is a state that has long considered about the center of a lot

13:11 of these debates around redistricting and election

13:13 law that we've been talking about.

13:14 So two candidates Allison Russo who's a long

13:17 time Democratic state legislative leader in the state

13:20 and then a doctor Brian Hambly is running in this Democratic primary as well.

13:26 You know as we've you know,

13:27 been talking about Ohio's a pretty solidly Republican state,

13:30 but these are for sure some fascinating primaries.

13:34 And then the other uh one I'll just mention

13:36 is the GOP primary in um Illino- or sorry, Ohio's um I believe Yeah,

13:45 in the 13th District,

13:46 uh Emilia Sykes is another frontline congresswoman

13:49 like Marcy Kaptur who's in a very, very competitive seat.

13:52 And I think those are going to be, you know,

13:53 top bellwether races this November as Bill was saying.

13:57 So, we know President Trump's name physically

14:00 won't be on any of these ballots tonight,

14:02 but he has endorsed candidates in Ohio.

14:04 Of course, there's redistricting issue uh in Indiana.

14:08 Uh let's say hypothetically, the president his endorsed uh candidates ultimately

14:13 win tonight and and win in Indiana.

14:16 What does that tell you uh Bill about the president's um impact,

14:22 long-lasting impact on on the GOP,

14:25 especially as his poll numbers, at least it appears nationally, continue to sag?

14:29 Yeah.

14:29 What I'm looking for is, you know,

14:31 we talk about the seven candidate state senators.

14:33 I think there's a really also an eighth that President Trump is targeting.

14:36 There's really eight people that Trump would like to see lose their jobs

14:41 as a as retribution because and let's just back up for a second.

14:45 Last December, the Trump wanted the Indiana legislature to um

14:51 to redistrict in the middle of a of a of a decade

14:54 instead of at the end of the decade

14:56 when you normally redistrict at the decen- decennial census.

15:00 And the Republicans there said no, we're not.

15:03 You know, a lot of these other states engaged in redistricting wars,

15:06 California on the Democratic side, Texas on the Republican side,

15:09 and so on and so forth.

15:10 But a couple of them held out.

15:11 Indiana was one on the Republican side.

15:14 And and so that cost probably Republicans two seats,

15:17 which is what why Trump is so angry about

15:20 it because they would have probably picked up two seats.

15:21 By the way, on the Democratic side, Maryland refused to do it and that would

15:24 have that would have given Democrats one seat.

15:27 But, the reason that tonight is so important to Trump is that he has

15:31 gone all in and getting rid

15:33 of these eight state senators that voted against him.

15:36 He feels they betrayed him.

15:38 He calls them RINOs, Republican in name only,

15:41 and so they've spent a lot of money to get rid of these people.

15:44 So, to answer your question, I would say this.

15:46 I think if Trump succeeds in getting rid of a majority of the eight,

15:52 he can credibly call it somewhat of a victory.

15:55 I think if the if a majority of the eight end up retaining their jobs,

16:00 I think we can say this was a setback for Trump.

16:03 Look, if it's a four-to-four draw, I mean, you know, I guess it's a draw.

16:06 But, I really am looking at that number.

16:08 How many can Trump get rid of and how many or how many end up staying?

16:12 That'll be a measure a measure of how well

16:16 Trump Trump still has that sort of political throw weight.

16:20 But, I will just say one last thing.

16:22 Remember, at this point of the game, it really is only about retribution.

16:26 It's not about redistricting.

16:27 That that ship has sailed at least in Indiana

16:30 where the the window has closed for redistricting.

16:33 Now, the Supreme Court last week sort of opened

16:37 up another window into redistricting by ruling that you cannot

16:41 racially gerrymander congressional districts

16:44 and that's going to have ramifications

16:46 going into the next cycle and even into the 2030s,

16:49 all of which will probably benefit Republicans slightly

16:53 when you look at what's happening this cycle, 2028, and at the end of the 2030s,

16:58 you're probably going to see a net pick up of Republican seats.

17:01 Who knows?

17:02 Maybe it's seven to 10, something like that.

17:04 And of course, a lot of other things could change between now and then.

17:06 Or yeah, yeah, yeah.

17:07 This is the big picture of of where we are in the redistricting wars,

17:10 but Trump is looking for revenge tonight.

17:14 Uh Chris, let's say to to reverse Bill's, you know,

17:17 results, Let's say a majority of them ultimately do lose.

17:20 Um we know the president is is want to say, well, look,

17:23 the candidate I endorsed lost, but I really wasn't involved in that race.

17:26 And you know, I I just, you know, said nice things about him.

17:29 Um does it stick if if these challengers that the president has backed,

17:33 if they ultimately lose in these races,

17:35 is that sort of another black mark on his record,

17:38 especially when it comes to multiple calls

17:40 to continue to redistrict across across the country?

17:43 Oh, to be Donald Trump, every day is a holiday, every meal is a banquet.

17:47 There are no losses, everything is better than it's ever been before.

17:51 And there there is no Donald Trump is not going to come out and say,

17:56 well, we learned a valuable lesson.

17:59 We went out to Indiana,

18:00 we tried to force them to do something they didn't want to do.

18:03 It was costly and harmed party unity, and I regret the decision.

18:08 And moving forward, we're going to do this diff- Come on, you know,

18:12 like this is the I think the most important thing

18:15 to remember in all of this is that it's insane.

18:18 It's all insane.

18:19 It's just pure madness.

18:23 Um the idea that a sitting president would

18:26 invest himself deeply in state legislative races in Indiana,

18:33 a red state where they the people are happy with their maps and it's

18:37 there's one Democrat basically in the state

18:40 that he would invest himself in this.

18:43 And then basically he got Mike Braun,

18:46 the governor out there, to eat the whole pickle, man.

18:50 He Mike Braun has like gone to war with his own state Senate,

18:54 jeopardizing his own legislative agenda.

18:57 All of this wreckage out in Indiana for nothing.

19:01 For nothing.

19:02 For zero.

19:03 For goose egg.

19:04 In a year where the Republicans are in huge trouble.

19:08 They have trouble coming out of their ears.

19:11 Everywhere that they turn is trouble, trouble, trouble.

19:15 And it doesn't matter ultimately who wins or loses in these races.

19:20 It matters as a test of the president's power,

19:23 but ultimately more than anything,

19:25 it is it speaks to a deepening dysfunction inside the Republican Party.

19:31 Uh the president's latest job approval

19:32 numbers among Republicans are down to 79%.

19:37 Donald Trump won 94% of self-identified Republicans in 2024,

19:41 and we almost never saw him below 85.

19:45 And so now he's clocking in he's he's got his first 70s from Republicans.

19:50 And obviously the Iran war is the the major driving force here,

19:55 but it's also just it's just silliness like this.

19:59 It's it it it's it's all of it taken together.

20:02 It's just silliness.

20:03 Well, but also can I just can I just can I jump in?

20:05 Chris is right in that you know,

20:08 when we first started these re- districting wars

20:11 and Chris and I have talked about this before,

20:13 it was still an open question as to whether it would

20:15 be a close race to who's going to control the House, right?

20:19 So, when when this whole thing started last year, and you know,

20:23 Texas was talking about we could pick up five Republican seats

20:25 and California was saying we could pick up five Democrat seats,

20:28 and all these states started weighing in, it

20:30 seemed very relevant because if it came down

20:33 to a close election that would be decided

20:35 by a couple of House seats one side or the other,

20:37 then it would turn out to be this this would be this would pay off big time.

20:42 But now look at the reality we're in now as Chris just talked about

20:46 with the president's approval ratings where they

20:48 are and with all the other troubles, the gas prices and so on and so forth,

20:52 it is generally believed and who knows what's going to happen in the election,

20:55 but it is generally believed that it's not going to be a close election,

20:58 that it's going to be not a not a necessarily a wave election,

21:01 but it'll be probably a double-digit Democratic gain in the House.

21:05 So, but it goes to the point of the those two votes that you

21:10 would have picked up in Indiana probably didn't matter even if you got them.

21:13 If you lose by 10 and you you know in the now instead you lose by eight,

21:17 it didn't really matter.

21:18 So, Trump's still upset about it,

21:20 but the truth is in hindsight those votes probably wouldn't have made much

21:24 difference in terms of the Republican

21:26 prospects for maintaining control of the house.

21:29 This is material you should be saving for the hog on Friday.

21:31 You shouldn't be squandering this here.

21:34 With strange more.

21:35 We'll make more.

21:36 This should be for us on Friday.

21:38 We appreciate it.

21:39 We we we certainly appreciate the wisdom and the insight.

21:42 Uh Grace, let's go ahead and bring you back in the conversation.

21:44 I'll ask you to go ahead and share your screen again as we

21:47 are just a few minutes out from uh polls closing uh in Ohio.

21:52 They've closed in Indiana except for sort of the part

21:55 that uh touches a little bit of Chicago.

21:58 Um but Grace, go ahead and I'll I'll go ahead

21:59 and turn things over to you and just uh let

22:01 you pick and choose some of the uh more interesting

22:03 races that you're watching tonight and give us some data.

22:05 Great.

22:05 Yeah, okay.

22:06 Let's start with some of these state senate primaries.

22:09 Um let's start see what results we have in.

22:12 Okay, not nothing district one so far.

22:16 Oh, you got a winner in 19.

22:19 Looks like.

22:20 Yeah.

22:22 Yeah.

22:23 Okay, sorry.

22:23 Hold on.

22:24 Let's see.

22:25 District six.

22:28 Yeah.

22:28 Okay, nothing yet.

22:30 Yeah, that's in Yeah, I guess that's in the part of the state that may

22:33 or may not be in the in the central or whichever.

22:36 I know Indiana is one of those states that splits by time zones.

22:39 Um okay, they got some got some results in from the 11th

22:43 state senate district about 30% reporting and it is

22:46 very very close uh between the incumbent Linda Rogers and Brian

22:51 Schmeltzer as I'm going to guess the pronunciation of his name.

22:55 Yep, he is one of the He is one of the candidates

22:59 uh that President Trump backed uh because Linda Rogers said no to redistricting.

23:04 So they're there's one of the the early

23:06 results we got great Trump back challenger.

23:08 What do you have anything for that Senate District 19 by any chance?

23:11 Yes, I pulled it up.

23:13 Yes, yes, here we go.

23:15 Okay, another close one.

23:16 Yeah, about 60% of the vote in so far and yeah,

23:20 we had the incumbent Travis Holdman appears to be down so far it's

23:26 looking about 60/40 so far in this He's not coming back from that.

23:30 He's not He's not coming back from that.

23:32 I'm not making race calls but there's no

23:35 there's no way that he's coming back from that.

23:37 That's a win for Trump right there.

23:39 Yep, because Travis Holdman was a no on redistricting.

23:42 Blake Fletcher with Trump back challenger.

23:45 So it looks like we could have a notch

23:48 in Trump's belt at least for one of these races.

23:52 Yes, and you got to shout out the score of the point.

23:53 It was in fact 13.5 million dollars that groups linked

23:58 to Trump and US Senator Jim Banks spent in these primaries

24:01 which is just That's a lot of money for congressional

24:04 race to say nothing of you know state senate races.

24:07 So just really really lots of money here.

24:10 Okay, let's take a look.

24:12 See 21.

24:14 Okay, yeah, yep, same same pattern here.

24:16 You got the incumbent Jim Buck also down

24:20 60/40 to the to a Trump back challenger.

24:24 Yeah, yeah, okay.

24:27 This is Is Chris ready to make

24:29 a a dis a data nerds breaking news decision ruling?

24:34 I have no power.

24:35 I have no power.

24:36 Did you Was there anything for us Was

24:39 there anything for SD 23 Grace by any chance?

24:42 SD 23 No, it didn't look like there were results in yet.

24:46 So now you're on what you had SD Now this is 38.

24:49 Okay, yeah, go ahead and pull up 38 cuz

24:50 you got you have another Trump back challenger there.

24:52 Greg Good voted no for redistricting.

24:56 And you got a Trump back challenger.

24:58 Okay.

24:58 Okay, he's he's at least faring better than the other

25:02 candidates that we saw a little bit earlier on tonight.

25:05 And then anything on SD 41 by any chance?

25:10 Let's see.

25:11 It was interesting that one he has

25:13 two primary challengers both last name Wilson.

25:16 Yep.

25:17 Interesting.

25:18 Okay, so Greg Walker the incumbent in this district.

25:21 He's ahead so far but only about 20% of the vote in a little 22%.

25:26 So another of the candidates who voted no

25:28 on redistricting and he's facing a Trump-backed challenger.

25:30 So a bit of a mixed bag but at least we got one that looks like the incumbent is

25:34 going to lose and the president's going to get

25:37 his way and get the retribution that we've been talking about.

25:41 Yeah, and it's interesting the dynamics in these kind of races

25:44 kind of cut both ways because in a primary especially Republican primary

25:48 the people who turn out are going to tend to be

25:50 more in that super engaged super mega supportive of the president mode.

25:55 But at the same time it can be hard to get people to care about

25:59 a state legislative primary election especially

26:02 in a district that has always been traditionally Republican.

26:05 But at you know at the same time you know 13.5 million dollars over seven

26:10 or eight districts that is an amount of money

26:12 that can really really go a long way.

26:13 Grace Grace will you will you say the number

26:15 I just just for for the audience's delight.

26:19 Will you say the numbers of ballots that have been cast

26:23 in these races just pick any district you want and say the numbers.

26:28 Okay, so so far in 41 it looks like see votes remaining.

26:34 This is it looks like it's going to be around 10,000.

26:37 Overall I think it averages out to about 10,000 expected votes.

26:41 in a in a big one and in these other

26:44 in these other races it will be substantially less than that.

26:47 These will be these will be these will

26:48 be races where the winner will get 6,000 votes.

26:53 right?

26:53 These are races where people are going to get 5,500 votes and that's what

26:58 the $13.5 million was spent on was in these This is Talk about micro-targeting.

27:05 How many dollars per vote?

27:07 Yeah, it's This is why I'm saying it's like it matters who wins and I

27:11 understand the narrative and I get how

27:12 that goes and if if the Trump candidates win,

27:15 Trump will say that he's great and if the Trump candidates lose,

27:18 Democrats will say Trump is dead and it'll be whatever.

27:22 But just for a moment, Mr.

27:24 and Mrs.

27:24 America, think about how insane it is to spend $13

27:27 million on races that get less than a suburban school board.

27:30 Just putting it out there.

27:31 Chris, I I I want to go back to something

27:33 you you told me recently and by the way, Chris and I do a podcast at 9:00 a.m.

27:38 Eastern every Friday called Whole Hog Politics at the hill.com.

27:41 But anyway, Oh, Chris, sorry sorry, Bill.

27:43 We're going to leave it there.

27:44 You're out.

27:44 I'm getting the wrap from my producer in my ear.

27:47 Bill and Chris Star Walt Whole Hog Politics every Friday morning.

27:50 You do not want to miss it, guys.

27:51 We will see you later on tonight.

27:53 But for now, we're going to take a quick

27:54 break and we will be right back with more results.

30:01 Welcome back to The Hill's Decision Desk 2026 data nerds.

30:05 I am Cory Smith rolling with you until about 9:30 tonight

30:09 as we start getting the first results in from Indiana and Ohio,

30:12 a big primary night in the Midwest.

30:15 Grace Panetta back with me and uh joining

30:17 us is Sadiqah congressional reporter for The Hill.

30:20 Good evening Sadiqah, thank you so much for being here.

30:23 I'll ask you the same question we ask all the guests when we do these shows.

30:26 What are you looking for tonight?

30:29 Yeah, I think one of the big things we're looking for is

30:32 kind of what Trump's influence will be like in these races.

30:36 Obviously, in Ohio we're seeing Vivek Ramaswamy run for Ohio governor.

30:41 Um, that's going to be a big race um, just because,

30:44 you know, he used to work um, under the Trump administration.

30:47 He was a former member of DOE.

30:49 She was leading that before um, he jumped into the Ohio governor's race.

30:53 We also have the Ohio Senate race, which is also equally important.

30:57 Um, you know, we have two candidates that are running um,

31:00 to fill in for Vice President J.D.

31:03 Vance um, who is tapped obviously to serve in the administration.

31:07 Um, and so these two uh, uh, three candidates really are running in the Ohio

31:12 Senate race to fill Vance's seat in the Senate.

31:14 Um, and so I think one of the big things we're

31:16 looking for is what Trump's influence will be like in these races.

31:20 Obviously in the races that we've seen so far in primary elections,

31:24 but also just previously what we saw in the off-year election um,

31:29 is that Democrats have been doing really well.

31:31 They've been having um, a lot of great momentum um, in these past few months um,

31:36 and even last year in the off election off-year elections.

31:39 Um, and so we're going to be seeing if Democrats will

31:42 keep up that momentum and it seems like Democrats are very confident.

31:45 At least Democrats I've spoken to on Capitol Hill are

31:47 very confident that they're going to carry on the momentum,

31:50 seize the midterm races, um, and win back the House and Senate.

31:54 It seems like they're very confident of that um,

31:56 or whether Trump's influence will outweigh that momentum.

31:59 Democrats confident without the uh, 2024 autopsy being released cuz that appears

32:04 to be the only thing that they really want

32:06 to talk about these days at at least the the Twitter left I guess you might say.

32:10 Um, Grace, let's go ahead and bring you back in.

32:12 We know polls just closed uh, in Ohio at 7:30.

32:16 Any early results perhaps in um, that uh,

32:19 GOP primary for the governor's race um,

32:23 or any of the House seats uh, that are for grabs?

32:26 Yeah.

32:27 All right, I'm taking a look here.

32:28 Nothing yet in for the governor's race.

32:31 Um, let's see what else we might have.

32:35 Okay, let's look at first house district.

32:40 Nothing yet.

32:40 This is Greg Landsman seat that's down by Cincinnati

32:44 and let's let's take a look at the

32:46 Anything in that either that or anything in the Senate race

32:49 that Senate Democratic Party Uh the US Senate race, let's see.

32:52 That's the the Sherrod Brown versus Vance Kaptur race.

32:56 Yes, okay, that's not Oh, here we go.

33:00 Yeah, nothing nothing in quite yet.

33:03 Polls just closed what 3 minutes ago,

33:04 so it stands to reason that uh that things aren't quite in just yet.

33:10 But but just looking more broadly at Ohio, Sudeep,

33:14 obviously this is a state that has gone to the right.

33:18 The president popular in Ohio, obviously JD Vance popular in Ohio.

33:24 Vivek Ramaswamy, when you you talked about a little

33:27 bit about his time up on the hill.

33:29 He was a firebrand during the GOP primary back in 2024.

33:35 Do you get the sense that he's maybe not toned it down necessarily,

33:39 but sort of honed his message a little bit better,

33:43 really focusing on those statewide issues

33:45 and not necessarily the big national issues.

33:47 Although as I was saying to Bill when he was here,

33:50 he was one of the first GOP politicians to really

33:52 talk about affordability and the need to focus on it.

33:56 Yeah, that's a really good question.

33:57 So I actually covered Vivek Ramaswamy back when

34:02 the 2024 presidential race was happening and he

34:04 did focus a lot on the national issues

34:06 then obviously cuz he was running for president.

34:09 But what I saw when he started running for Ohio

34:11 governor was kind of a switch over to the local issues,

34:15 you know, focusing a lot more on what you know,

34:18 members in his community are saying.

34:20 He would do a lot of these like stops at local places,

34:23 talk to community members.

34:25 And so he kind of really shifted from that national aspect to the local aspect.

34:29 Now there are some um know, posts and there are some uh places where he's gone

34:35 to where he has um gotten a little bit of national attention.

34:38 You know, he's taken pictures with Trump while running for Ohio governor.

34:42 Um he's talking about um you know,

34:43 basically how he had the support from President Trump

34:47 and some other national figures when running for Ohio Ohio governor.

34:51 Um but he has focused a lot on the local issues.

34:53 Um one thing that I will say which I found really interesting

34:56 is um on immigration his talking points have been very interesting I think.

35:01 Um you know, he has certainly taken somewhat of a turn on that.

35:05 Um I think back when he was um you know,

35:07 running for president on the national stage,

35:10 I think it was a little bit different.

35:12 Um I think he was a little bit more further right on immigration,

35:15 but I think he's kind of toned it down a little bit.

35:18 And so that's been interesting.

35:19 I think that might upset some MAGA voters.

35:21 Um but other than that I I think that he has a very strong um case right now.

35:25 He you know, a lot of national figures

35:28 um Republican national figure figures have endorsed him.

35:31 And so he seems in a pretty good spot at this time.

35:34 But um yeah, he has taken a big shift from uh

35:38 focusing on national politics to really focusing in on local politics,

35:43 which I think was his specialty all along to be honest.

35:46 All right, Grace.

35:46 Let's go ahead and get you to share your screen again and let's go

35:48 ahead and run back to Indiana and check in on uh these Trump backed challengers.

35:54 Let's start in uh Senate District 1 if we can.

35:57 This is uh Senator Dan Dernulc seat.

36:01 Uh he voted no on redistricting and is facing a Trump backed challenger.

36:05 And as you see there, wow, he is he is down by quite a bit.

36:10 Yeah.

36:11 Yes, yes.

36:11 He's down by quite a bit.

36:12 Uh it appears up there in the northwest corner of the state.

36:16 Um let's see who else we have.

36:19 District Uh let's go to SD 11 if we can.

36:23 Okay, yes.

36:25 Yes.

36:25 Okay.

36:26 That is uh where you have incumbent Linda Rogers.

36:29 She's on the ballot, but she voted no on redistricting and is

36:32 being challenged by Brian Shmutzler and is down

36:36 what's nine-ish points right now with more than

36:39 half of the precincts reporting up in northern Indiana.

36:43 All right, so that's two things looking good for the president.

36:47 Let's go to SD 19 if we can.

36:49 19.

36:50 All right.

36:54 Oh, yep.

36:55 All right, so we have the incumbent Travis Holdman down.

36:58 Wow, down nearly 20 points with What is that?

37:00 Is that 66%?

37:03 Of precincts in this right right east of the Fort Wayne area there in Indiana.

37:08 So it looks like another good good night for the Trump back challenger.

37:12 SD 21 if you don't mind.

37:15 All right.

37:16 This is Jim Buck seat, the incumbent.

37:18 Again, voted no on redistricting.

37:21 He is down by quite a lot it looks like.

37:24 That's sort of the central part of the state just north of Indianapolis.

37:27 Okay, so right now President Trump's looking 4-0.

37:31 Let's go to Spencer Deery in SD 23, Grace.

37:36 And I so appreciate you following along with me.

37:38 Yeah.

37:39 You got it.

37:41 All right, Spencer Deery.

37:42 Okay.

37:42 Okay, so this one's looking a little bit better

37:44 for a uh incumbent in Indiana who voted no on redistricting.

37:51 Spencer Deery in that Lafayette area it looks like.

37:55 Let's go to SD 38, the seat held by Greg Good in Indiana.

38:01 He again voted no on redistricting and he is up.

38:05 Okay, he's up by at least 21 points over Brenda Wilson it looks like there.

38:11 So Okay, so now the the the redistricting no's are staging a bit of a comeback.

38:17 And let's finish it out with Greg Walker in SD 41.

38:20 If we can.

38:22 See what the results are there.

38:25 Okay.

38:26 Okay, this one's a bit closer and you have, you know,

38:29 only 28% of the precincts reporting but right now he is up

38:32 by 10 points over Michelle Davis who is the Trump back challenger.

38:37 So, I think if my math is right, that's about three races looking good

38:41 for the Republicans who voted no on redistricting

38:45 and four races not looking so good

38:47 for Republicans who voted no on redistricting.

38:49 So, that's something that we're going

38:50 to continue to watch as the night progresses, as we get more results come in.

38:57 So, Suductions, I'll bring you back in.

38:59 What are you hearing on Congress when

39:01 it comes to these whole redistricting wars?

39:03 As Bill said earlier, we at the beginning of this, we sort of thought,

39:07 okay, wow, the the GOP is going to do this.

39:09 They're going to get more seats.

39:10 They're going to hold on to power and then California said, hold my beer, Texas.

39:14 And then you had Illinois come into the fray,

39:17 Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana about to do the same thing.

39:21 What is the mood like on the hill when it comes

39:23 to the sort of the redistricting wars that the president started?

39:26 Yeah, so I think that Democrats

39:28 and Republicans are really going head-to-head with this.

39:30 I mean, obviously we saw in Virginia and that was a really big one,

39:33 that redistricting referendum where you know,

39:36 they voted yes that they were okay with that and that ended up passing.

39:39 And so, obviously I've spoken to a lot

39:42 of Democrats on Capitol Hill who were like,

39:44 you know, this all started because of President

39:46 Trump and that they're going to keep fighting back.

39:48 And so, it's become sort of a tit-for-tat where

39:51 it's like when one state does it, you know,

39:53 another red state is going to go do it or when a blue state does it,

39:56 you know, they're trying to counteract each other to see how they can,

40:00 you know, play this out.

40:01 And the midterms in particular are very important this year.

40:04 You know, Trump really wants to make sure that Republicans retain control

40:08 of the House and Senate whereas Democrats are really looking to flip.

40:11 And so, this redistricting war is really an opportunity for Trump um,

40:15 be able to see how many seats he can possibly have Republicans keep,

40:21 um, and Democrats know that and they're, you know, willing to go head-to-head.

40:24 And so, um, it's been interesting.

40:26 I think the mood is very competitive on Capitol Hill.

40:28 It's very, um, I would say grim in some aspects,

40:31 but also it seems like, you know, Democrats are very angry.

40:34 There's a lot of anger and frustration

40:36 on Capitol Hill because of all this redistricting,

40:38 um, but at the same time they're like,

40:40 you know, if they're going to if Republicans are going to do it,

40:42 we're going to do it.

40:43 Um, and so it has become sort of tit-for-tat,

40:46 um, that we're seeing on Capitol Hill.

40:48 All right, we do have, uh, our first call of the night,

40:50 official call from our colleagues over at DDHQ.

40:53 Uh, Vivek Ramaswamy has won the GOP primary for the Senate in Ohio.

40:59 So, he will move on to the general election, uh, to take on Amy Acton.

41:04 There was no Democratic primary.

41:05 And this was the result, uh, that a lot of people,

41:08 uh, thought was going to happen again, as Sadichha said, a very well-known, uh,

41:13 face uh, in MAGA, uh, very well-known in Ohio.

41:17 Um, we had J.D.

41:18 Vance in Cincinnati earlier today, uh, voting.

41:22 He's got a lot of money.

41:23 Um, he's not He's He's He's doing well for himself personally, uh,

41:28 about $25 million from his personal funds, a $31 million war chest.

41:32 So, he is primed and ready, uh, to go for this race against Amy Acton.

41:36 Uh, according to Bowling Green State University, um,

41:39 they have Ramaswamy leading Acton by just one point in a head-to-head poll.

41:43 Uh, so we might see a very close race, um, come November,

41:48 but we should always say it is an an eternity

41:51 until we get to the general election, um, in November.

41:54 I say eternity, although we've been talking 6 months.

41:57 Um, so So, not not It is around the corner, uh,

42:00 but in in politics, uh, that that is a very long time.

42:04 Uh, Grace, go ahead and share your screen one more time for me if you can.

42:08 Um, wanted to see the other races, uh, in Indiana.

42:12 Um, why don't we go ahead and uh,

42:14 go to the house where we do have some interesting

42:16 races shaping up a lot of incumbents running when we start

42:21 in the that Indiana District 1 we have Frank Mervyn

42:24 running against what 1 2 3 4 4 or 5 people.

42:28 And he looks like he's he's doing pretty well for for an incumbent right now.

42:33 Yeah, yeah.

42:33 He looks like he'll be he'll be safe and then the other is

42:37 of course Andre Carson in Indianapolis he

42:40 has several primary challenges and he yeah,

42:42 he looks like he's going to be pretty safe as well.

42:45 He currently has nearly two-thirds of the vote.

42:48 With 67% in.

42:50 What is the fifth district in Indiana looking like

42:52 this is the seat held by Victoria Spartz who is

42:56 not afraid to buck her party when need be

42:59 and has been a crucial vote on some occasions in Congress.

43:03 Let's see how she is fairing tonight.

43:05 Yeah, it's a good question.

43:06 She's not here in the featured races so I'm just going to go back.

43:12 A little bit.

43:14 Let's see.

43:19 Okay.

43:19 That's House District 5.

43:20 Oh, here we go.

43:27 Staten Indiana okay.

43:30 Let's see what else we got.

43:33 That is that oh that's Staten 21.

43:34 Do you have the the fifth district the US House race in Indiana?

43:40 Yes, so that's the one I have.

43:42 On my screen I might be a little bit

43:43 of a delay but in any case Victoria Spartz yeah,

43:45 she has 60% so far over a Republican challenger.

43:51 With about half in so she looks like she'll be.

43:54 Okay.

43:55 Sedisha we're going to say goodbye to you here

43:57 in a second but before you go just some parting thoughts.

43:59 What are you going to be looking at tomorrow

44:01 as more of these results roll in from Indiana and Ohio?

44:05 Yeah, I'm particularly interested about how Trump

44:08 Act candidates will do in these races.

44:10 It seems like they're ahead right now.

44:12 Um, but one thing I do want to note is that Trump

44:14 has been declining in several polls related to the economy and immigration.

44:18 Um, seems that a lot of voters are not happy with what's going on with Iran.

44:22 Um, and so he his approval rating has been going down.

44:25 Um, and it seems like a lot of Republicans are worried about that.

44:28 They think that that could impact them in the midterms.

44:30 Um, and they're worried that that could impact

44:32 their chances of retaining control of the House and Senate.

44:35 So, I am particularly interested to see how these Trump Act candidates will do,

44:39 um, in these elections.

44:40 And again, I'm also very interested to see what

44:42 the momentum is like with Democrats in these races.

44:45 Um, again, I know that these are primaries,

44:47 but I think it's important to kind of see, you know, how much, um,

44:51 even if there are some races where you

44:52 have like two or three different Democratic candidates running,

44:55 um, just to see what the what the, um, mood is like there.

44:59 Um, you know, are younger candidates kind of coming up on top?

45:02 Are older candidates coming up on top?

45:03 I know that the Democratic Party had sort

45:05 of an age problem in 2024 when, um, you know, uh,

45:09 former President Biden was still on the ballot, um,

45:12 you know, before, uh, former Vice President Kamala Harris took over.

45:15 I think age was a big issue.

45:17 Um, and so something I'm interested in is it it it will age still

45:20 be an issue for Democrats moving forward

45:23 or has that issue completely been solved,

45:26 um, and that they have a fresh new slate of candidates,

45:28 uh, coming in for the 2026 midterms.

45:30 So, those are some things I'm looking out for.

45:32 All right, Sadisha Kochi, congressional reporter for The Hill.

45:35 Sadisha, thank you so much, uh, for being here.

45:37 We appreciate it, uh, as always.

45:39 I know you're going going to be very busy watching these races,

45:42 uh, play out and see how things shake out,

45:44 um, as the polls, uh, the votes get counted because the polls have closed.

45:48 Uh, we are data nerds.

45:50 We like to think of ourselves as data nerds here.

45:52 Uh, let's go ahead and bring in, uh, the data nerds of data nerds, uh,

45:56 and that would be Jeffrey Skelly with DDHQ,

46:00 uh, chief elections analyst, uh, if we can.

46:02 There he is.

46:03 Uh, good evening to you, Jeffrey.

46:05 How's it going?

46:06 Hey, doing great.

46:07 Doing great.

46:08 Uh, what are you seeing so far?

46:09 Obviously still early, uh,

46:10 but as we've been talking about throughout the night, it appears that, uh,

46:14 these Trump-backed challengers in Indiana, uh,

46:17 after some of the incumbents voted no on the redistricting effort,

46:21 are faring pretty well.

46:23 Yes, uh, you know, right now here in sort of the early going,

46:26 it it looks like, uh, well, we have at least one projection, uh,

46:30 and possibly another one not too far away if if trends continue,

46:34 uh, for for a Trump-endorsed candidate.

46:37 And overall, so there were seven races where

46:40 President Trump endorsed a primary challenger to, uh,

46:43 a Republican state Senate incumbent who was seeking

46:46 re-election and voted no on redistricting last year.

46:49 And currently, uh, three of the three

46:53 of the incumbents are leading and four of them

46:55 are trailing and one of them we've

46:57 of those that was trailing we've projected as lost.

46:59 So, in that sense, if you're if your barometer,

47:02 which I'm I I'm not saying this is right or wrong,

47:04 but if your barometer were Trump getting

47:06 a majority of these senators knocked out,

47:09 uh, then he would at least at the moment, uh,

47:12 be close more on track to do that than not, uh, but we'll see.

47:16 Okay.

47:16 Okay.

47:17 Uh, hey, Grace, if you can, stop sharing your screen and, um,

47:21 we'll let Jeffrey, if you can share your screen.

47:25 Uh, any chance you can do that?

47:27 Yeah, sure.

47:28 All right, yeah.

47:28 Just sort of walk us through.

47:31 sharing it.

47:32 I think so.

47:33 There we go.

47:35 Yeah, so, um, we as I said, one race has already been projected for one

47:40 of the primary challengers supported by President Trump.

47:43 Uh, here we have another incumbent, Jim Buck, who is trailing.

47:47 Uh, we do think that there are more votes to come in this race

47:51 and possibly that our our our vote estimate actually is going to be increased,

47:55 um, in terms of the the number of votes outstanding.

47:58 Um, I've just some chatter behind the scenes here about that.

48:01 Uh, but there's no question that Buck uh, is well behind uh, to Tracy Powell.

48:06 Um, and my understanding is actually that Powell was already planning

48:08 to run for this seat and Buck was expected to retire.

48:11 But then after the redistricting uh, kerfuffle,

48:15 Buck and another another state senator uh,

48:17 Greg Walker, basically they both backtracked on on planning

48:20 to retire and decided to run again.

48:22 Um, you know, maybe they were feeling feisty for having uh, uh,

48:27 gotten all this kind of negative blowback for opposing the redistricting bill,

48:30 decided to run again.

48:32 But right now Buck is looking like he's in some trouble.

48:35 Uh, you have a similar um, uh,

48:38 I would say in terms of the the incumbents who are in maybe a better place.

48:42 I actually I mentioned Greg Walker.

48:44 Um, trying to bring this up.

48:46 Uh, the uh, he Walker,

48:49 another guy who was contemplating retiring, decided not to.

48:52 He is currently ahead, but we don't have as much of the vote in there yet.

48:55 But he is facing a state representative, so um,

48:58 who might in in some ways Michelle Davis might be

49:00 the most notable candidate of the challenges

49:02 primary challenges endorsed by Trump,

49:04 at least in the sense of uh, elected office that she has attained.

49:08 Um, so there's still quite a ways to go on that one.

49:11 Um, one of the more notable races of this whole group uh,

49:15 was the 38th State Senate District where Greg Good um,

49:20 had who who is apparently is the political director for Indiana Senator

49:25 Todd Young or or works is very close to Indiana Senator Todd Young,

49:29 who is sort of the more establishment flavored,

49:31 if you would, Republican senators there.

49:33 Jim Banks is is closer to to President Trump.

49:37 Um, and he and actually Jim Banks,

49:38 a couple groups close sort of associated with him were big outside

49:42 players in the outside spending in a lot of these state senate races.

49:45 But Greg Good uh, so far um, with about a third of the expected vote in, uh,

49:50 is a little bit above 50% and a three-way race.

49:53 And this was a interesting one because you have two candidates that the Brenda

49:56 Brenda Wilson on screen there is

49:58 the candidate who is the has Trump's endorsement.

50:03 However, there's a third candidate in the race,

50:06 Alexandra Wilson, just to confuse things.

50:09 And there was actually an advertisement run by supporters of Will Brenda Wilson,

50:15 the Trump endorsed candidate,

50:16 where they essentially talked about Greg Good and Alexandra Wilson,

50:20 but just called them Greg and Alexandra and went back

50:22 and forth on different descriptors for them and said like,

50:25 you know, ignore them, vote Brenda.

50:27 And then they had a shot of Brenda

50:29 at the end with President Trump in the Oval Office.

50:32 So So it's just kind of an interesting like,

50:34 how do you how do you approach this problem

50:35 of having multiple Wilsons on the ballot with an incumbent?

50:39 Yeah.

50:39 Hey, do me a favor.

50:40 What are What are you seeing in Senate District 6?

50:43 That's the seat held by Rick Niemeyer.

50:45 He voted no on redistricting,

50:48 but there was no Trump-backed challenger in that race,

50:52 according to to my or to my research.

50:54 By all means, correct me if I'm wrong.

50:56 Oh, no, no, you're you're correct.

50:58 You're correct.

50:58 No, he Oh, wow.

51:00 Okay.

51:01 It's It's looking like it's close.

51:02 Now, this is interesting because yes,

51:04 James Starkey was not endorsed by President Trump or or Trump's team,

51:10 whereas the other seven So So Rick Niemeyer, the the incumbent here,

51:14 the other He's one of eight on the ballot.

51:17 And So in Indiana, it's worth noting that about

51:19 half the state Senate seats are up every two years.

51:21 So for instance, Rod Bray, the state Senate majority leader,

51:24 who has caught a lot of President Trump's

51:27 anger over the failure to redistrict the congressional map,

51:31 he's not up until 2028.

51:32 So Trump could not endorse a candidate against him

51:35 because he wasn't going to be on the ballot yet.

51:37 But eight of the the no votes in the state Senate,

51:42 who were Republicans, are were seeking re-election.

51:45 And so But Niemeyer is the only one Niemeyer, I think is how you pronounce it.

51:48 Niemeyer is the only one who is not um did not face a Trump-endorsed candidate.

51:53 But obviously, you know,

51:54 if if if it stays like this, he may be in for a close one.

51:58 All right.

51:59 Uh let's see.

52:01 So, we got And oh, we just actually we just projected Okay.

52:05 I'll bring it up.

52:06 Um we I talked about it just a moment ago.

52:09 We have a projection here.

52:10 Uh Jim Buck will uh we're projecting that Jim Buck, the incumbent, Mhm.

52:15 will lose to Tracy Powell, the Trump-endorsed challenger, in State Senate C-21.

52:21 So, at this point, that means we have two

52:23 projections out of that sort of seven or eight, if you want to include Niemeyer,

52:27 uh races that are of interest here in the State Senate,

52:30 where the redistricting battle um was sort of the source

52:33 of this conflict within the Republican Party in Indiana.

52:36 So far, two projections two projections for Trump-endorsed candidates.

52:40 All right.

52:40 So, it looks like the president having somewhat of a good night thus far.

52:46 Can you go to This race interests me because we've had

52:49 her on I host a show called Sunrise on the Hill.

52:52 We've had Erin Houchin, Republican in Indiana's ninth district.

52:57 She's, you know, in a safe GOP seat, but I am curious to see how she

53:02 is faring against any primary challenger she may have.

53:06 Well, she's unopposed.

53:07 She's unopposed?

53:08 So, my notes were wrong.

53:10 Okay.

53:10 Well, then she's Well, you know, you know,

53:12 it's it's very possible that that someone was

53:15 was their their ballot position was knocked off.

53:19 Or, you know, it they Sometimes when you the final

53:22 list looks a little different from from the filed list.

53:26 Um so, it's it's you know,

53:28 that's what I heard you guys talking about Victoria Spartz,

53:29 though, who is always an interesting character.

53:32 Um and and so, I'll bring her up cuz I

53:35 know you guys are talking about her a little bit.

53:37 Um you know, she's she looks like she's

53:39 on pace to win renomination in the fifth congressional district,

53:43 Uh the Republican there,

53:44 Um but she obviously against a candidate who's not gotten a lot of attention.

53:49 Scott King, she's only she's running under 60% right now, Sparks,

53:52 which I think speaks to the fact that, you know,

53:54 she was going to retire, then she decided to run again.

53:58 Wins a highly contested primary, and it's just sort of I I think

54:03 she's just sort of an idiosyncratic iconoclastic character.

54:07 Yeah.

54:07 She's a She's very much a her own woman, for sure.

54:11 Yes, and so, you know, maybe her vote total reflects that.

54:14 People like her enough,

54:15 but they don't She's She's She has frustrated some Republican voters.

54:21 Yeah.

54:20 And I see the the mistake that I made on the Aaron Houchin race is I didn't

54:23 see the big D next to Jim Graham

54:24 and Brad Meyer and Tim Peck because they're Democrats.

54:28 So, yes, she is running unopposed.

54:29 So, she she is very much headed to the general election.

54:34 What was the I guess when when

54:37 Indiana started this redistricting effort and when

54:40 these Trump challengers got into the races

54:44 and over ultimately getting his endorsements,

54:46 did we see major fluctuations in the polling?

54:50 Did it have any sort of impact on how

54:53 well these these candidates were doing before and after?

54:57 So, it's interesting is we didn't really have

54:58 any public polling to go on in these races.

55:01 And you know, that that reflects You don't usually

55:03 see a lot of that for state legislative races.

55:06 You know, if you if you think about it, I mean,

55:08 it is very likely that the incumbent campaigns

55:13 had enough money to to have a poll done.

55:16 But they may have only had one done.

55:17 And of course, the timing on this could have

55:19 mattered in terms of when that poll was conducted,

55:22 when Trump had endorsed, when because because he did it sort of in waves.

55:26 It wasn't all at one time.

55:29 So, so in that sense, it was difficult to get a read on this in some cases.

55:34 I think something that is Basically,

55:36 the one the numbers we did have were were the ad spending.

55:41 And so I'm going to bring up uh AdImpact had a good uh synopsis of um

55:48 uh this if I can get it to to show up here on my my tab.

55:52 Um let you know we blow that up.

55:54 So so uh primary spending in Senate State Senate

55:57 primaries uh ad spending uh in Indiana by cycle.

56:01 Uh you'll notice that one of those numbers is a lot larger than the others.

56:05 Uh yeah.

56:06 Yeah, you know, roughly a half million here,

56:08 a half million there, and then suddenly 13 and 1/2 million.

56:11 And I think that reflects the fact that you had you had a lot

56:14 of outside groups coming in mainly to oppose

56:17 the incumbents who had voted no on redistricting.

56:19 Uh a couple groups associated with uh uh Jim Banks,

56:22 the Republican senator there, um were and were run by uh a guy

56:27 a guy who's part part of Trump's political team.

56:30 Uh he they they spent a lot of money.

56:32 Club for Growth was involved in in anti-incumbent efforts.

56:36 Uh Turning Point USA was was organizing events against these incumbents.

56:40 You did have a a fair amount of spending by the sort

56:44 of the the outside group that's associated with the Indiana Senate GOP caucus,

56:49 which was for the incumbents, was supporting the incumbents.

56:52 Um but that was their main source of outside support.

56:54 And so at the end of the day, there was a lot more outside money

56:57 here than than the candidates individually were raising.

56:59 Though the though I should note that the incumbents

57:01 at the end of the day did outraise their challengers a lot.

57:03 So the challengers were very reliant on this outside money.

57:06 But obviously this is completely out of step with what

57:09 we usually see in state Senate primaries in Indiana.

57:13 So so you know, it's a it's a it's an unusual situation.

57:16 Yeah, look, we we've said it all night.

57:18 President Trump's name not on the ballot, but uh the money tells you otherwise.

57:23 The interest in the races tells you otherwise.

57:25 I can't remember another primary night where we were actually

57:27 more focused on state level races than actual congressional races.

57:32 But such is life under a Trump uh uh 2.0.

57:35 Jeff, we'll say goodbye to you for now.

57:37 Grace, I know you're going to stick around.

57:39 We're going to have more guests joining us as we continue to watch

57:41 the results come in in the great states of Indiana and Ohio.

57:45 This is The Hill's Decision Desk 2026 Data Nerds.

57:48 We will be right back.

59:53 All right, welcome back to the Hill decision desk

59:55 26 data nerds primary night in Indiana and Ohio.

1:00:00 I'm Corey Smith and joining me is co-host of Rising

1:00:04 Lindsey Granger and of course 19th News political reporter Grace Panetta.

1:00:09 Lindsey, thanks for joining us.

1:00:10 Much appreciated.

1:00:13 No problem.

1:00:14 Um so what we've been talking about all night is uh it's

1:00:17 interesting to be covering a primary where you're actually kind of more

1:00:20 interested in what's happening at the state level and not the federal

1:00:24 level especially in Indiana where you

1:00:26 have President Trump call for redistricting.

1:00:28 Republicans basically tell him no,

1:00:31 not going to happen and then Trump coming back and saying,

1:00:33 "Okay, then I'm going to endorse some challengers."

1:00:36 We already got one incumbent who has gone down.

1:00:38 That would be Jim Buck in Senate District 21.

1:00:41 Um what do you think if the president has a good

1:00:44 night tonight in terms of the candidates that he endorsed winning?

1:00:48 What does that tell you about sort of the sway that he still is

1:00:52 able to hold on the Republican party despite what the poll numbers are saying,

1:00:57 despite how Iran appears to be dragging

1:00:59 down his support even within the MAGA base?

1:01:03 I think it tells you that specifically like this kind

1:01:05 of story that we heard historically is that some states

1:01:08 have a higher tolerance for President Trump than other states

1:01:11 do and more than people do across the United States.

1:01:13 So we see those low poll numbers and know that you know,

1:01:16 there's a lot of money that was spent directly like in Indiana with Trump.

1:01:19 They spent heavily a lot of Trump's allies.

1:01:22 But there's not been coherent messaging.

1:01:24 So if everyone can get on the same page about what the messaging is,

1:01:27 we'll see that that doesn't whether it matters or not because President Trump,

1:01:31 just the name attached to it means more than the messaging.

1:01:34 Because a lot of people haven't decided about

1:01:35 what their messaging is around how the Iran

1:01:38 war affects each each state or how they're

1:01:40 going to talk about these kind of things.

1:01:41 But they have decided that they're walking along President Trump's endorsement.

1:01:45 And so I think within Indiana it's the loyalty

1:01:46 test we're seeing for the Trump versus the Trump

1:01:50 loyalists versus the dissenting Republicans and what that looks

1:01:52 like and what Indiana itself feels about the president.

1:01:56 I think there's different levels of the way

1:01:59 that people react to the president and different levels

1:02:01 of tolerance especially because he's already been president once

1:02:05 and now he's going or he's into his second presidency.

1:02:08 I don't think there's ever a blanket statement

1:02:10 about how the country feels about the president.

1:02:11 There's so much nuance.

1:02:13 President Trump's an anomaly in that way.

1:02:14 But I think because we know he can't run again,

1:02:16 his name will never be on the ballot again.

1:02:19 Um this is kind of that last ditch effort to see if

1:02:21 the party as a whole I think when we see individual races

1:02:24 should sway in a different direction or stay as closely aligned

1:02:27 as they can to this mega message that he really created and solidified.

1:02:31 All right, let's go ahead and bring in I won't say Lindsey's better half,

1:02:34 just say her other half, Robbie Soave, co-host of Rising.

1:02:38 A good evening to you, sir.

1:02:40 Hope you're doing well.

1:02:41 We've been talking about Indiana and these Republican incumbents

1:02:45 who told the president we are not going to redistrict.

1:02:48 The president came back and endorsed a challenge.

1:02:50 We've already gotten one who is not going to make it to the November election.

1:02:55 What do you think about sort of how this could shake out?

1:02:59 If the president has a good night here and the candidates that he endorses wins,

1:03:04 does that put more winds behind his sails or is this just

1:03:06 sort of a this is Indiana doing what Indiana wants to do?

1:03:11 I mean going up against Trump is never a a idea within the Republican coalition,

1:03:17 so he has settled that dispute decisively already.

1:03:22 Of course, there will come a time where Trump perhaps

1:03:26 commands less influence within the party than he does right now.

1:03:31 He's only going to be the president for the rest of this term.

1:03:34 I still think his word will go for a long time after that.

1:03:38 So, yes, this is a message really to any Republicans who are thinking about,

1:03:43 "Yeah, I can kind of go my own way.

1:03:45 I don't have to do exactly what Trump says." Especially

1:03:47 if it's a battle over something that is important to him.

1:03:50 I think there is wide latitude within the party

1:03:53 to have a difference of opinion on policy with Trump.

1:03:57 And frankly, there are differences on immigration,

1:04:02 economic policies, foreign policies.

1:04:03 I think there will be room

1:04:05 for Republican candidates have a different foreign policy.

1:04:14 You know, down ballot we've seen,

1:04:15 but when it's something when it comes down to a a procedural

1:04:21 or a political battle that Trump says is important in a in a personal way.

1:04:26 This is about his redistricting efforts.

1:04:28 This is something important to him that is really not so

1:04:32 much about it's a policy of how the Republican Party endorses electorally.

1:04:37 There you got to be with him.

1:04:38 You can't be saying you can't be disagreeing with him on 2020 or January 6th

1:04:47 or whether the efforts to remove him or keep him off the ballot are witch hunts.

1:04:52 Like those kinds of things, you have to be with Trump on that.

1:04:56 So, this was the wrong thing to deviate from him on is what I would say.

1:05:01 Grace, are you able to share your screen with us if you can because we just got

1:05:04 another call by DDHQ Sherrod Brown has won

1:05:08 the Democratic primary for the special election uh Ohio.

1:05:12 He was going up against Ron Kind Cade.

1:05:14 Be interesting to see what uh the vote uh total is looking like right now.

1:05:20 Um Lindsey Sherrod Brown's interesting character lost

1:05:22 to Bernie Moreno in that change election of 2024.

1:05:26 Um His place in the party is interesting when

1:05:28 we're having this debate over is the is the Democratic

1:05:31 Party uh need to go further to the left

1:05:34 or sort of back towards uh the center a little bit.

1:05:37 I'm interested to know where do you

1:05:38 think Sherrod Brown falls along that spectrum, especially in a state like Ohio?

1:05:44 I think Sherrod Brown has been pretty

1:05:45 consistent uh with the traditional Democratic stance.

1:05:48 I think that um you know, there is a a big disconnect.

1:05:53 Like I said, it's state by state about what the party wants to do.

1:05:56 Uh there's a lot of levels of where to go next and what will be the right step.

1:05:59 And I think that every step that the Democrats take takes

1:06:02 seems like a delicate one because 2026 is really going to be

1:06:06 a referendum on both parties about what Democrats should do next

1:06:10 and about uh what Republicans feel about what Trump has done so far.

1:06:14 And even if each state is different,

1:06:16 I think keeping people whose names have been um

1:06:19 in politics for so long and people know a lot

1:06:21 about uh are are definitely a signal that perhaps they

1:06:25 don't want to go as far as like an AOC,

1:06:27 but there still is some room to have conversations about big voices

1:06:31 and big ideas and people with with high energy like Sherrod Brown has.

1:06:36 Uh Grace, what about the Republican primary

1:06:38 for that US uh Senate special election?

1:06:40 You see any data there?

1:06:43 That of course John Houston uh

1:06:45 the the incumbent appointed uh Republican appointed obviously

1:06:48 once JD Vance uh ascended to the vice presidency of uh the United States.

1:06:53 Be interesting to see sort of how he is faring.

1:06:56 Um Robbie, same question to you.

1:06:57 The the the Sherrod Browns of the world,

1:06:58 still a place for him in today's modern Democratic Party?

1:07:03 Well, if there is room, it's just a little bit of room.

1:07:08 Um I'm I'm I'm skeptical, frankly.

1:07:11 Um you know, it it the the Trump coalition, MAGA,

1:07:16 Republican Party has absorbed a lot

1:07:19 of traditional blue-collar worker type voters.

1:07:24 I you know, people who were Bernie first,

1:07:27 Trump second, Hillary third going back to 2016.

1:07:32 I I don't see those people so much being wooed back toward the party.

1:07:38 If anyone can do it, it's a it's Sherrod Brown.

1:07:41 Certainly, I get the appeal.

1:07:43 But I kind of think that train has left the station.

1:07:48 The Democratic Party is still searching for an identity.

1:07:51 I think it's realized, it you know, going so hard on wokeness or cultural

1:07:57 progressivism has lost those kind of voters.

1:08:00 And so there's certainly a significant part of the Democratic

1:08:04 Party that wants to not do that anymore.

1:08:06 But it's not like they're counter-signaling hard enough, if that makes sense.

1:08:10 They're still figuring it out.

1:08:11 They won't even release I can't read

1:08:13 the autopsy report cuz they won't release it.

1:08:15 So I've no idea what they've decided is their way forward.

1:08:18 I don't know.

1:08:19 If it says appeal to more Sherrod Brown type people by doing XYZ things,

1:08:23 then then then maybe.

1:08:25 But more likely, Sherrod Brown-esque people will will

1:08:30 there's still room for more of them to leave.

1:08:33 Look at John Fetterman being courted by Republicans in recent days.

1:08:36 I think it's more likely John Fetterman becomes a Republican

1:08:40 before his next election than than Sherrod Brown becomes senator.

1:08:45 Can I jump in here, Kurt?

1:08:46 Go ahead.

1:08:46 No, go ahead.

1:08:47 By all means.

1:08:48 So this is the thing.

1:08:49 Like I know that we live in a digital age.

1:08:51 I mean, the show right now is running digitally.

1:08:54 And I know that the loudest voices are coming across

1:08:56 on X and people that are really social media savvy.

1:08:59 I get that.

1:09:00 So you would think that the dominating voice,

1:09:02 like even in the Republican Party, is all MAGA.

1:09:04 And you would think that the dominating

1:09:06 voice within the Democratic Party is all AOC.

1:09:09 But there are large polls that show us that Sherrod Brown's age,

1:09:13 which is 73, is really the voting block.

1:09:16 The people who vote the most are around his age.

1:09:18 And so Yeah, John, I know it.

1:09:20 I know.

1:09:20 So, Robbie, we can't forget that like the Sherrod Browns

1:09:23 of the world are the ones going down to the polls.

1:09:25 We might be loud, but we have all this apathy that maybe some

1:09:28 people who are talking the loudest aren't even going down to the polls.

1:09:31 So, Sherrod Brown and others reflect in I think

1:09:34 a time that still exists even just like the Republican Party.

1:09:37 Robbie argues that there's no going back.

1:09:40 The MAGA train has train has left and it's

1:09:42 staying in left the station and it's MAGA forward.

1:09:45 But I think there's still a large Republican faction

1:09:48 that knew about and remembers the Republican Party prior to Trump.

1:09:51 And some of them are still in government and want to go back there.

1:09:53 And there are tons of elderly people

1:09:55 and not even using elderly super loosely, older people,

1:09:58 older than 50 and 60 that still are voting and very highly engaged that remember

1:10:02 the reason why they had all these conservative

1:10:04 values that they've instilled in their kids.

1:10:06 So, I think on both parties, even with Sherrod Brown,

1:10:08 he's representing a large number of people who

1:10:10 maybe think that the Momdanis of the world,

1:10:13 the AOCs, don't wholly represent them.

1:10:15 And so, you have to remember that parties and Congress

1:10:18 is made up of people who decide and disagree,

1:10:20 which is why I welcome Fetterman into the Democratic Party.

1:10:23 And I invite him to have more conversations often

1:10:25 with other Democrats rather than shunning them on CNN and Fox.

1:10:28 We should find ways to discuss amongst his party.

1:10:30 But you don't want to isolate the older

1:10:33 folks just because the younger folks are louder.

1:10:34 Louder doesn't always mean correct.

1:10:37 Uh let's talk about the gubernatorial race.

1:10:38 Have you either of you noticed any sort

1:10:41 of change in Vivek Ramaswamy when you compare the Vivek

1:10:45 Ramaswamy who ran for president in '24 and the Vivek

1:10:48 Ramaswamy who's running for governor in Ohio right now?

1:10:52 Uh sure, I can speak to that.

1:10:54 Very interesting uh Vivek Ramaswamy, very interesting character.

1:10:59 Uh someone who obviously ran in the Republican the 2024 primaries as a Sorry,

1:11:06 let me just mute Slack there.

1:11:08 Uh as a sort of running against Trump, but almost you know,

1:11:14 defending him and so almost running as a surrogate

1:11:16 for him while being in the race.

1:11:18 But someone of a slightly different You know, there's all these flavors of MAGA.

1:11:23 There's the hardcore Steve Bannon type populist who want um an economic

1:11:29 package that not everyone on the MAGA is on board with.

1:11:33 Very supportive of tariffs.

1:11:35 Everyone in the coalition wants immigration

1:11:38 reductions and deportations and more immigration restrictions,

1:11:42 but there are actually two camps about high-skilled immigration.

1:11:46 And Vivek Ramaswamy was very upfront about Like Elon Musk,

1:11:51 wants high-skilled immigration that's very tech- conscious,

1:11:55 that knows um the really smart people from India and Asia,

1:12:00 we want them in the US.

1:12:01 That's the Vivek view, that's the Elon view.

1:12:04 It's not the view of, for instance,

1:12:05 Steve Bannon, the people on that side of MAGA.

1:12:07 Now, Trump is actually in the in the Elon Vivek

1:12:11 side of that it when whenever he speaks on this issue.

1:12:13 But it's it's not something everybody gets on board

1:12:16 with, and so he took a lot of attack from the other wing when he was becoming

1:12:20 vocal about that and then kind of step back.

1:12:23 Kind of exited the whole dodge thing.

1:12:25 Kind of kind of faded a little bit into the background.

1:12:28 And you know, I think he has

1:12:30 a very strong likelihood still of being the governor,

1:12:34 but you also heard him speaking out the other day.

1:12:37 I thought he gave a really sharp answer.

1:12:38 I mean, a full disclosure, I like him.

1:12:40 I agree with him.

1:12:41 He's close to my own political view,

1:12:43 so of course I'm going to be defensive of him.

1:12:45 But he said he was asked by um a student at a Turning Point USA event,

1:12:52 you know, about Israel, this issue that's so dividing the Republican base now.

1:12:55 And he said, "Well, actually,

1:12:57 I was for not sending foreign aid to Israel or anyone else from the beginning.

1:13:02 I was the first person to stand up on the Republican stage and say that.

1:13:05 But, also, I think it's wrong to blame or to be overly focused or obsessed

1:13:09 with Israel the way so many of the young people in MAGA are now." I

1:13:13 thought that was very interesting and and we'll

1:13:15 see if that's a possible way forward to diffuse this issue because this issue is

1:13:20 so bitterly dividing the MAGA coalition right now,

1:13:22 a phrase I keep using, but that could be a way forward,

1:13:26 um not fund it and pay less attention to it.

1:13:30 Um he's got a lot of money on hand in his war chest,

1:13:33 both that he's raised in his own personal funding.

1:13:36 But, right now, we we said earlier,

1:13:37 Bowling Green State University has this as a one-point

1:13:40 race between him and Amy Acton, the Democratic challenger in this race.

1:13:44 Lindsey, do you think she has any sort of chance of beating Ramaswamy

1:13:48 in a state that is becoming a little

1:13:50 bit redder and redder as each election passes?

1:13:53 It is becoming more red,

1:13:54 but I think Amy Acton is doing what she's listening

1:13:58 to what people said after the last few elections for Democrats,

1:14:01 and she's talking about the economy.

1:14:03 She's talking to the average everyday working

1:14:06 American in Ohio and trying to really connect.

1:14:09 She's relying on some of her experience.

1:14:11 I know that she worked in talked a lot about her COVID

1:14:14 response and working in health departments

1:14:17 and how she's had experience with that.

1:14:18 So, I think this is a COVID era

1:14:20 governance and her running about that versus economic

1:14:23 and cultural messaging that people disagree within the primaries

1:14:27 for Vivek Ramaswamy about the things that he's said.

1:14:29 So, they are polar opposites.

1:14:30 Obviously, when we get to the general election,

1:14:32 that'll be something to watch between both of them.

1:14:34 But, I think she actually does have a chance

1:14:36 because people still want some levels of governance.

1:14:39 Like like Robbie said, there's like layers to MAGA,

1:14:42 and I'm not sure that the people who like Vivek Ramaswamy like

1:14:46 the idea that Ramaswamy might be so closely attached to President Trump,

1:14:51 um even if he did try to run against him.

1:14:53 All right, uh so we are waiting for more results to come in.

1:14:56 Uh we're talking about Indiana and uh

1:14:59 Ohio primaries tonight at in Indiana, of course,

1:15:02 everyone on the lookout for these Trump-backed uh candidates uh who

1:15:06 are running against incumbents uh who voted no on the redistricting effort,

1:15:10 and some other uh interesting races going on in Ohio,

1:15:12 not to mention just the uh the the governor's race, the Senate race.

1:15:16 Uh we're also, as uh I forgot who

1:15:18 was I might have been Grayson mentioned it earlier,

1:15:20 there's this uh or it was Stywall who mentioned it earlier.

1:15:22 We got this state Senate district uh

1:15:24 race in Michigan where if the Republicans win,

1:15:27 uh the trifecta for Democrats goes away.

1:15:29 You've got a 19-19 deadlock tie uh in the Senate there.

1:15:33 If the Democrat wins, obviously,

1:15:35 then the trifecta still holds and you've got a majority uh Democratic uh Senate,

1:15:39 House, and of course, the governor of Michigan uh is uh a Democrat uh as well.

1:15:45 Um guys, as the primary calendar continues to roll on, um what

1:15:49 sort of impact do you think the redistricting fight will continue to have?

1:15:54 When it's all said and done, when all the lines on the map stop moving,

1:15:58 um do you think either party is going to come out ahead here,

1:16:01 or is this all just going to be for naught

1:16:03 and we're just basically going to get a wash?

1:16:06 I think we'll eventually get a wash.

1:16:08 Uh sorry to step in there a little bit.

1:16:10 I mean, Go ahead.

1:16:11 this is if you think about it,

1:16:12 this is a pretty closely divided We're basically a 50-50 country.

1:16:17 Um Trump got a little bit more the popular vote,

1:16:20 a little bit more in the electoral you know,

1:16:21 narrow narrow victories in all the uh swing states coming out on top.

1:16:26 So, if everybody plays the game exactly correctly,

1:16:29 and everybody does redistricting where

1:16:31 wherever Democrats have narrow majorities,

1:16:33 they redraw the lines to give themselves maximum advantage,

1:16:35 Republicans do the same,

1:16:37 we're going to come out in basically the same place we're in now,

1:16:40 maybe slight advantage for the Republicans based

1:16:43 on the votes in the last election,

1:16:44 could totally evaporate in the midterms.

1:16:47 And that's actually where it's supposed to be.

1:16:49 The problem right now is half the states playing by the old rules,

1:16:52 trying to have you know, fair fairly drawn lines,

1:16:56 and half the states playing hardball politics

1:16:59 and doing it to maximize their advantage.

1:17:01 It's got to all be one way or the other.

1:17:03 Well, look, we're in a time now where racial gerrymandering bad,

1:17:07 partisan gerrymandering good, according to the Supreme Court in this Voting

1:17:10 Rights Act that that that just came down.

1:17:13 Lindsey, how do you think that ultimately could play a part?

1:17:15 I mean, we were getting our schedules together for primary nights to come,

1:17:19 and we just exed Louisiana off the the calendar because they put

1:17:22 their primary on hold just to redraw their maps and redo races.

1:17:27 Right.

1:17:28 That Supreme Court decision I spoke at length about.

1:17:30 I think the distinct differences between why that ruling

1:17:34 affected the Voting Rights Act and how giving

1:17:37 black more black people specifically a voice doesn't

1:17:39 necessarily mean that, even though historically they voted Democratic,

1:17:42 they need to continue voting Democratic.

1:17:44 I think it means the policies and the representation has to match.

1:17:48 If Republicans want more black voters,

1:17:49 maybe they they should create policies to support that.

1:17:53 But, separate from that, I think redistricting,

1:17:55 we're going to see that maybe it's not a mobilizing issue.

1:17:58 This is this mid-decade gerrymandering race that's happening right now.

1:18:02 We're seeing more and more states throw their name in the hat.

1:18:04 Florida, even in Virginia,

1:18:05 we saw that the it only passed by a few number of votes.

1:18:09 Like, it was split right down the middle of what

1:18:11 whether primary voters even cared about this kind of thing.

1:18:14 And I think it's being driven by party elites on both sides.

1:18:17 It's unclear, and we'll find out today whether primary voters actually are even

1:18:21 part of this or want to be part of this or are completely disconnected.

1:18:24 We're not seeing like 90% of people voted for redistricting.

1:18:28 We're seeing like splits in a lot of these votes.

1:18:31 So, I think this is going to be, hopefully,

1:18:33 a message to a lot of these candidates that you

1:18:35 guys are having this high-level federal conversation and trying to decide

1:18:39 who your voters are rather than trying to garner votes

1:18:41 from folks and actually just make people vote for you.

1:18:44 You're trying to redistrict in a way that no matter what the policies are,

1:18:47 you have the right people voting for you that automatically would say yes.

1:18:50 So, it's a numbers game.

1:18:51 When more and more people probably feel closer to how Robbie

1:18:53 feels about the Electoral College and the way we vote in general,

1:18:56 even though it'll be an uphill battle trying to change a lot of that, I think

1:18:59 it's frustrating to folks that it's more games

1:19:01 being played as opposed to policies being created.

1:19:05 Uh Robbie, just your thoughts on the on the Supreme

1:19:07 Court ruling and and how it could impact things moving forward.

1:19:11 I mean, you know, the Supreme Court said that it seems a little silly.

1:19:16 I agree with it that you can't draw

1:19:18 a district you you can do partisan gerry- I mean, you put it very well.

1:19:21 You can do partisan gerrymandering.

1:19:23 That's okay.

1:19:23 That's what we're doing.

1:19:24 You just can't do uh race-based gerrymandering.

1:19:27 But, of course, the Republican argument and is that it's

1:19:30 not people are people are being gerrymandered to the advantage

1:19:33 of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party voters

1:19:36 of a certain race happen to vote more for one party.

1:19:39 It's not uh it's not racial animus.

1:19:41 It's just the reality of who votes for who.

1:19:44 It's not It's not designed to keep people of a certain

1:19:47 race limit their political uh effort because of their race.

1:19:51 It's designed to limit their political power because

1:19:53 of their voter affiliation and who they vote for.

1:19:55 So, I I think we are just getting to a realistic place that again,

1:19:59 both parties We're now Look what Virginia just voted

1:20:02 to do very narrowly by 51% voted to give the voters

1:20:06 in suburban Arlington progressive liberal

1:20:08 Democrats disproportionately more and more

1:20:11 sway and say over rural voters in that state.

1:20:16 That's not illegal.

1:20:17 Doesn't violate any rule.

1:20:19 Republicans are really mad about it, but fair is fair.

1:20:22 They won, so they get to do that.

1:20:24 I don't know why you wouldn't be able to do that for any other reason.

1:20:26 I think that's what we decided.

1:20:28 All right, Robbie, we will go ahead and say goodbye to you, sir.

1:20:32 Lindsey, I believe you're hanging around maybe just for a little bit longer.

1:20:36 If you can If you can chill with us I've been told no.

1:20:39 I've been told no.

1:20:41 She's out of here.

1:20:42 She Cinco de Mayo, yeah.

1:20:43 She's got a margarita with her name on it.

1:20:45 Well, guys, hey, thank you so much for your time tonight.

1:20:48 I really do appreciate it.

1:20:49 Of course, you can watch Rising every Monday through

1:20:52 Friday on The Hill streaming site at 9:00 a.m.

1:20:55 Lindsey Granger, Robbie Soave, guys, thank you very much.

1:20:58 We appreciate it.

1:20:59 Thank you.

1:21:00 All right, you were watching The Hill's Decision Desk 26 data nerds.

1:21:04 Grace had to step away for a little bit.

1:21:06 She's having some technical issues.

1:21:08 But, I have the DDHQ motherboard here in front of me.

1:21:12 So, bear with me a little bit as we sort of walk you through these races.

1:21:16 Again, in in Indiana, all eyes are on the state Senate

1:21:19 races because the president wanted Indiana to redistrict.

1:21:24 It failed in the Senate, did not get done.

1:21:26 The president then went in and backed

1:21:29 a number of candidates to run against Republican incumbents.

1:21:33 And just looking at the the data yet, only one race called so far.

1:21:38 That's Senate District 21 where incumbent Jim Buck will lose to Tracy Powell.

1:21:43 Things looking pretty good right now

1:21:45 for the candidates that were endorsed by President Trump.

1:21:49 We'll start in Senate District 1 where we have Dan Dernulc.

1:21:52 Right now, he is down by nearly 45 points to a challenger in that race.

1:21:59 So, he's got a very big uphill battle to climb

1:22:02 with nearly half of the ballots in and counted right now.

1:22:08 We'll go to what Senate District 11.

1:22:10 That's Linda Rogers.

1:22:12 She is down by seven-ish points right now to a challenger.

1:22:19 So, there She's She still has a chance.

1:22:23 Like, we only got about 70-ish percent of the vote total in.

1:22:27 and I'm told Grace is back who she's somebody who

1:22:30 can walk us through this much better than I can.

1:22:33 So, let's go ahead and bring Grace Finney

1:22:34 to back in from the 19th and also Kristen Escott,

1:22:39 my colleague here in DC NewsNation Washington correspondent.

1:22:42 Good for coming in.

1:22:43 Thanks for coming in.

1:22:44 We appreciate it.

1:22:46 you.

1:22:46 I ask every person this question and since you're joining us for the first time,

1:22:49 I'll ask you, what are you looking for tonight?

1:22:51 What are you watching?

1:22:52 I'm definitely watching these state senate races in Indiana.

1:22:55 How many of the incumbents are going

1:22:57 to go down compared to the Trump backed challengers.

1:23:01 One race I'm watching in particular is out of Terre Haute, the Greg Good race.

1:23:07 He's being challenged by Brenda Wilson there and Greg Good's case is a little

1:23:11 interesting because unlike some of the other

1:23:13 incumbents we've seen who were against redistricting,

1:23:17 he very publicly talked with people in his district about the issue.

1:23:22 He held a town hall back in the fall and during that event,

1:23:27 no one spoke up in support of redistricting.

1:23:30 He heard from dozens of people, all of them spoke out against it.

1:23:34 And he really highlighted that when he went to the floor to vote

1:23:37 no back in December when the special session was held on redistricting.

1:23:42 Talking about that this wasn't something

1:23:44 that his constituents wanted to see and while we have heard that from the other

1:23:48 incumbents who voted no on redistricting as well,

1:23:51 he very publicly made it known that he spoke with people and had this town

1:23:56 hall and didn't see the appetite for redistricting

1:24:00 and really cited that for his vote.

1:24:02 So, that's one race I'm watching in particular.

1:24:04 It looks like right now from the results we're seeing

1:24:06 that Greg Good is up compared to his challenger Brenda Wilson.

1:24:09 Grace, if you can share your screen,

1:24:12 let's go ahead and just run through these races one more time.

1:24:15 I talked about SD1 Dan Darnoc down by a lot.

1:24:19 Linda Rogers down by not so much,

1:24:22 but why don't we pick up I had a Senate District 19,

1:24:25 the seat held by Travis Holdman.

1:24:27 Uh he voted no on redistricting and is facing

1:24:29 a Trump back challenger and not fairing very well.

1:24:34 Yes, uh this is just HQ uh projecting that he

1:24:37 will lose his seat to um his challenger Blake Bucher Beacher.

1:24:41 All right, so that is another another X another X next to the name

1:24:45 of an incumbent who's going to go down uh to a Trump back challenger.

1:24:48 What about SD 23 and Spencer Deery?

1:24:51 Yes, 23.

1:24:55 Okay, he's still ahead.

1:24:57 All right, so this is looking good for Spencer Deery thus far what

1:25:01 up by four-ish or so points with about 66% of the ballots coming in.

1:25:06 So uh he continues to fight on.

1:25:09 Um the race uh that Chris was talking about Greg Good in SD 38.

1:25:14 What are the numbers looking like there if you don't mind?

1:25:19 see.

1:25:18 Yeah, super interesting 38.

1:25:24 Okay, so less than half of precincts reporting uh but he

1:25:28 looks to have a pretty sizable lead there over Brenda Wilson.

1:25:31 This is the race uh Jeff Skelley was talking about where you had

1:25:34 uh two women running in this race with the last name of Wilson.

1:25:37 Uh so you can only imagine uh

1:25:39 the campaign ads there and the difficulties uh there.

1:25:42 And then let's go to a Greg Walker in SD 41 if we can.

1:25:45 That is the one of the last ones uh of these Republicans again

1:25:49 who voted no on redistricting and are now facing a Trump backed challenger.

1:25:53 Okay, he is down somewhat 16 or so points with about is that 95% reporting?

1:25:59 Thus far?

1:25:59 Yes, and yeah, it looks like DDHQ is projecting that he will lose.

1:26:03 Okay, okay, so that's Greg Walker who is done.

1:26:06 He le- losing to Michelle Davis who I believe Jeffrey says

1:26:09 was a state rep so has has the the name recognition.

1:26:13 Uh she's been in the house for the Indiana State House.

1:26:16 We you know Kristen let's bring Let's talk about

1:26:18 that a little bit cuz we've been talking about

1:26:19 Ohio and this sort of lurch uh to the right for the last decade, 15 years or so.

1:26:25 What is the lay of the land, politically speaking, uh in Indiana?

1:26:29 I think from an outsider perspective perspective,

1:26:31 it's blue dot Indianapolis, red everywhere else.

1:26:34 That is about right.

1:26:36 What's interesting about the dynamic, I think, in Indiana is,

1:26:39 unlike many other red states, we see a big sort of libertarian following there.

1:26:45 The Libertarian Party always has a candidate

1:26:48 in statewide races who has a bigger following,

1:26:50 perhaps, than we'd see in other states.

1:26:53 And that's why the redistricting issue,

1:26:55 it was so interesting how that played out there because Indiana,

1:26:59 with some of those libertarian leanings,

1:27:01 isn't big on passing laws that, you know,

1:27:04 the Republican lawmakers feel aren't totally necessary.

1:27:08 And when you talk with folks who in Indiana,

1:27:10 I remember talking with some of the state

1:27:12 lawmakers as they were making up their minds

1:27:14 about this, they felt like it wasn't something

1:27:16 their constituents wanted and that it wasn't really necessary.

1:27:20 And they also don't like outside influence.

1:27:23 And we saw a lot of that during

1:27:24 the redistricting fight from Turning Point USA and other organizations.

1:27:28 And that turned off quite a few of those Republican state senators,

1:27:32 some of whom are being challenged tonight.

1:27:34 course, it's important to keep in mind with the Indiana State Senate,

1:27:37 those are four-year terms.

1:27:39 So, we're not seeing all of the incumbents

1:27:41 who voted for redistricting on the ballot.

1:27:43 The remaining ones will be on the ballot next time in '28.

1:27:46 All right, we're going to have to leave it there,

1:27:47 but we will be right back with Grace

1:27:48 and Kristen on the Hill's Decision Desk 2026 Data Nerds.

1:29:55 All right, welcome back to the Hill's Decision Desk 2026 data nerds,

1:30:00 Corey Smith, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Grace Panetta with you.

1:30:03 We are covering the Illinois I keep doing that.

1:30:06 Indiana and Ohio primaries.

1:30:09 I'm getting my Midwest states mixed up.

1:30:11 I states.

1:30:12 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1:30:13 So you and I were talking during the break Kristen

1:30:15 about the feeling going into tonight with these um Senate races

1:30:22 in Indiana at the at the state level where you had

1:30:25 incumbents voting no on redistricting and then getting challenged by Trump.

1:30:30 In your reporting and the sources that you've

1:30:31 been talking to, was there a feeling

1:30:33 of optimism that the president's endorsements and his endorsed

1:30:36 challengers were going to have a good night?

1:30:39 So there was some expectation,

1:30:41 but the expectations I wouldn't say are very high.

1:30:43 So I've been talking with some of my Republican

1:30:46 sources from Indiana and the number I keep hearing is

1:30:50 that folks expect to see three of the incumbents

1:30:54 of the seven who have Trump endorsed challengers go down.

1:30:58 So three out of seven, that's not particularly high.

1:31:02 But there are people who are, you know,

1:31:04 telling me that three they'll view as a good night.

1:31:07 You know, again, I think it's interesting to see perhaps

1:31:10 we and perhaps we will be seeing this play out,

1:31:12 how do Hoosiers feel about outside influence?

1:31:15 And I heard a lot during the special session on redistricting

1:31:19 that folks were turned off by all the outside influence we've been seeing.

1:31:23 And of course that's really coming to play here in these primary elections.

1:31:26 So will Hoosiers warm to these Trump endorsed candidates or will

1:31:32 they ultimately stick with the incumbents who represent their communities?

1:31:35 Several of them have for some time.

1:31:37 Let's move to Ohio just for a second.

1:31:40 We got a call that Vivek Ramaswamy going

1:31:42 to be the GOP nominee for Governor Sherrod Brown

1:31:46 winning the Democratic primary for the Senate special

1:31:48 election to seat held by now Vice President J.D.

1:31:52 Vance.

1:31:53 Grace, I know you said that you were watching a big Ohio Supreme Court race.

1:31:59 State Supreme Court race going on.

1:32:00 Have you seen any results there thus far?

1:32:10 I think you might be muted, Grace.

1:32:12 Is that on our end or Yes.

1:32:14 Oh, there you go.

1:32:14 That was good.

1:32:14 That That was my bad.

1:32:15 No, now we hear you.

1:32:16 That was my bad.

1:32:17 Um yes, we have about 20% of the vote

1:32:19 in reporting on the Republican primary for that Supreme Court race.

1:32:23 Um so far Colleen O'Donnell is in the lead,

1:32:26 but only by a few percentage points with three opponents trailing her.

1:32:30 Uh and with the increased importance of state

1:32:32 court races in our current political era,

1:32:35 uh this is definitely going to be a big,

1:32:36 really interesting one to watch um this November.

1:32:40 And it will be interesting to see

1:32:41 as we're talking about outside group spending um

1:32:44 what role we're going to see outside

1:32:45 groups playing in Supreme Court races this year.

1:32:48 In the recent Supreme Court race in Wisconsin this spring,

1:32:51 a lot of the major conservative and anti-abortion groups really

1:32:55 pulled back and did not spend a lot in Wisconsin.

1:32:58 So, it will be really interesting to see how that continues to shake out,

1:33:02 including in a race like this that is openly partisan.

1:33:05 Uh can Oh, we uh Jeffrey Skelley is back with us.

1:33:09 Let's go ahead and bring in uh Jeffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst.

1:33:13 Um not sure if it's Jeffrey or Grace who can share their screen,

1:33:17 but I was interested to looking at that 9th Congressional District in Ohio.

1:33:20 We have incumbent uh Marcy Kaptur, longest-serving woman uh in Congress,

1:33:26 but a big battleground uh and the interesting

1:33:30 race is the GOP primary actually because you have

1:33:32 a former ICE deputy uh director who's thought

1:33:35 to be the frontrunner running against some other candidates.

1:33:37 What are you guys seeing there uh on the Republican side of things?

1:33:43 Yeah, so uh uh Cap- Marcy Kaptur is the Democratic incumbent

1:33:48 and her 2024 opponent was uh now former state representative Derek Merrin.

1:33:52 Merrin is back, and he is currently leading.

1:33:56 Uh we don't have that much of the vote yet though.

1:33:57 You just a little bit shy to shy of 20%

1:34:00 of the uh estimated vote is is has come in.

1:34:03 So, we're we're quite a ways from I think knowing the outcome here,

1:34:06 but you would rather be Marin running at close to 50% uh early.

1:34:11 Uh the other two at this point it looks like the other

1:34:13 two sort of candidates who are going to be in the mix

1:34:16 are state representative Josh Williams uh and and Madison Sheehan who Madison

1:34:21 Sheehan uh is the former deputy director deputy deputy director of ICE.

1:34:26 Um and so she was seen as a candidate

1:34:30 who would have some sort of national backing.

1:34:32 She's come in actually fundraised rather well,

1:34:34 but she didn't get in the race until mid-January.

1:34:36 Um so it's very very late actually.

1:34:38 Maybe she thought she saw there was an opportunity.

1:34:40 Things were uh there was a crowded

1:34:43 race and and maybe someone could break through.

1:34:45 And so she she has fundraised pretty well,

1:34:48 but at least here in the early going she's she's in a distant third.

1:34:53 Uh what are you seeing in uh district one there

1:34:56 in Ohio where you have uh Greg Landsman uh where

1:35:00 redistricting appears to be perhaps going to make his seat

1:35:03 a little bit more vulnerable uh come uh the general election.

1:35:07 How is he doing so far in uh district one there in Ohio?

1:35:12 So so Landsman uh it he looks like he's going to face Eric Conroy

1:35:17 who um is a uh a former CIA official uh and and military veteran.

1:35:24 And Conroy got Trump's endorsement uh in mid-April in this race

1:35:29 and uh actually the best sort of his his leading opponent

1:35:33 uh in terms of just sort of looking at fundraising um

1:35:36 was a a physician who dropped out after Trump endorsed Conroy.

1:35:41 So, Conroy was was viewed as the frontrunner and it looks like he's you know,

1:35:45 we don't actually have that much of the vote yet, but the trends are clear.

1:35:48 We've projected this for a reason um

1:35:50 which is that Conroy will be facing Landsman.

1:35:52 Now, this is a seat that in redistricting went from being

1:35:56 one that uh President Trump actually lost, or sorry, yes,

1:36:02 President Trump lost by about three points, um or six points,

1:36:05 excuse me, to one that he actually carried by two or three.

1:36:09 Uh so, we're talking about about a nine-point swing in redistricting.

1:36:11 However, you know, in a blue-leading midterm environment uh

1:36:15 that that seems to be uh in the offing, how blue remains to be seen.

1:36:19 Um, I think Landsman's viewed as at least having a slight upper hand,

1:36:23 uh but it's obviously still We've got 6 months to go.

1:36:26 Yeah.

1:36:26 And those two districts we just discussed there,

1:36:28 Marcy Kaptur's district and Greg Landsman's district,

1:36:31 have long time been targets for the Ohio GOP.

1:36:34 I've been covering Ohio for a while since I used to be a reporter in Dayton,

1:36:38 and you'd hear every cycle the Ohio GOP say,

1:36:42 and you talk with the Republicans or so in Ohio saying,

1:36:44 "This is going to be our year.

1:36:45 This is going to be our year." So,

1:36:47 I think that's why those are definitely two important races to watch this cycle,

1:36:51 especially given those new district boundaries from the new Ohio map.

1:36:56 Um, Jeff, can we talk about the president's polling just for a second?

1:37:00 Obviously, again, President Trump not on the ballot,

1:37:02 but one of the things that that we've been hearing the last couple of days

1:37:05 as poll after poll after poll comes out

1:37:07 is that his approval rating continues to sag.

1:37:11 And the question is, is that going to have any perhaps sort of lag,

1:37:13 especially when you're talking about these Indiana

1:37:17 challengers to some of the incumbents?

1:37:20 What are you seeing in terms of the president

1:37:22 right now in terms of how the American people,

1:37:24 the average of of polls out there, assess his job?

1:37:29 So, right now, President Trump overall,

1:37:33 his approval rating in Decision Desk HQ's average is about 40%.

1:37:38 So, that sort of greenish line on the screen there.

1:37:41 And then the orange line is the disapproval, which is at about 57%.

1:37:44 So, overall, not doing too great, But, if you do look at if you're

1:37:50 thinking about sort of the context of a primary,

1:37:52 where Trump's standing is among Republicans,

1:37:55 he's is approval rating among Republicans is still about 80%.

1:37:58 So, that's that's considering that his overall approval is

1:38:03 at about 40 or even a hair below that.

1:38:06 Uh he's he's maintained his position among Republicans pretty well.

1:38:10 And and you know, correspondingly, he has you know,

1:38:14 obviously Democrats are very It's like 95-5 kind of thing um in disapproving.

1:38:21 Uh but then independents are at this point

1:38:23 are pretty pretty strongly disapproving of the president,

1:38:27 which I think is a problem for Republicans in a midterm election.

1:38:31 You know, some of those independents probably voted for Donald

1:38:33 Trump if they do show up in a midterm election,

1:38:35 which again will have lower turnout.

1:38:37 And so, you're more independents are going to be sort of less engaged

1:38:40 voters because they independents tend to not be as engaged as partisans are.

1:38:45 Mhm.

1:38:45 Uh or people who openly identify with a party.

1:38:47 And but at the end of the day,

1:38:49 if some of those voters do show up and they voted for Donald

1:38:52 Trump last time and they vote for a Democrat in their local House race,

1:38:56 that's really important because that's not just gaining one vote,

1:38:59 that's actually gaining two on net.

1:39:01 And that's like the those voters who actually switch are

1:39:07 very important to arithmetic because turnout's such a big thing,

1:39:11 but if you can persuade some voters to to to switch sides in terms of party,

1:39:16 you're actually gaining more out of it.

1:39:18 Uh Chris, I'm glad you mentioned that you worked in Ohio cuz I've been

1:39:21 talking about Sherrod Brown and sort of where

1:39:24 he falls in today's current Democratic Party.

1:39:27 Well-known face.

1:39:28 There was even talk back in '24 about

1:39:31 him perhaps jumping into the race you know,

1:39:34 once President Biden ultimately stepped down.

1:39:38 How popular/unpopular is he in the state of Ohio?

1:39:41 Where is he in that spectrum when

1:39:43 you talk about progressive or liberal or moderate?

1:39:46 He's quite popular in Ohio, a very well-known face.

1:39:49 I remember covering as a local reporter his 2018 re-election.

1:39:55 When he won in huge numbers.

1:39:56 Now, that was a huge year, of course,

1:39:58 for Democrats, 2 years after President Trump was elected,

1:40:02 and we're seeing perhaps another favorable year

1:40:04 shaping up for Democrats this go around after,

1:40:08 you know, you have the White House, House, and Senate under Republican control.

1:40:12 So, the Democratic Party in Ohio knows that this is

1:40:15 going to be a formidable challenge for Jon Husted,

1:40:18 who used to be the Lieutenant Governor,

1:40:20 now is the Senator, and it very well could be

1:40:24 one of the closer races that we see this cycle.

1:40:27 And I think it also is going to show how red is Ohio, right?

1:40:31 Will Ohio ultimately go for Jon Husted?

1:40:33 What will the margins be?

1:40:35 Or will they turn back to Sherrod Brown, who lost in 2024,

1:40:40 but is looking for a comeback, and is a very well-known,

1:40:44 well-liked person in Ohio,

1:40:46 seen as somebody who's very deeply connected to the labor

1:40:49 movement and and labor folks there, union workers.

1:40:53 Of course, in Northeast Ohio, he's got a lot of roots there.

1:40:55 So, it'll be very interesting to see how that race shapes up.

1:41:00 And, you know, if it is even close,

1:41:03 you could really question is Ohio a red state?

1:41:05 Cuz when I talk with people in Ohio,

1:41:07 they'll often cite the 2018 race when Sherrod

1:41:10 Brown won as why Ohio isn't truly red, that it still has a bit of purple in it.

1:41:15 Jeff, go ahead and I see you've pulled up

1:41:17 a generic ballot test between this hypothetical match up between,

1:41:20 I guess not hypothetical anymore, Sherrod Brown and Jon Husted.

1:41:24 Yeah, so the early polling in this race since both candidates did not,

1:41:29 I mean, Husted had literally no primary opposition,

1:41:31 and Brown had very minor primary opposition.

1:41:34 So, we've known for a while this was going to be the match up.

1:41:36 And the early polling here you know shows a close race.

1:41:39 I And I think that does speak to a combination of things.

1:41:43 Brown is better known than than a you know just having been a US

1:41:49 Senator for for three terms is obviously

1:41:51 very well known figure in Ohio politics.

1:41:53 So in the sense that you're not going

1:41:55 to have a situation where the Democrats coming

1:41:58 in and running against Husted and is it

1:41:59 like 41% cuz people aren't as familiar with them.

1:42:02 But at the same time I think it also is a reflection of the the political

1:42:06 environment where you know we do expect

1:42:09 it to be more democratically leaning overall.

1:42:11 And so in a state that President Trump carried by what

1:42:14 about 10 11 percentage points you're you're getting it closer

1:42:19 to a situation where a Democrat could potentially win it especially if

1:42:23 if that Democrat can run ahead of sort of the Democratic baseline.

1:42:26 And it's worth noting that Brown won roughly 3% more of the vote

1:42:31 in his 2024 loss when he lost re-election than Kamala Harris did in Ohio.

1:42:37 So if you're sort of thinking about okay

1:42:38 Brown has shown evidence that he can sort

1:42:40 of run a a little bit ahead of sort of the the the top of the ticket.

1:42:45 And of course he will be the top of the ticket this time.

1:42:48 So that's a little different.

1:42:49 But if you're just sort of thinking about the most recent presidential election

1:42:51 as an indicator of the partisanship of a place Brown did better than that.

1:42:55 Not a lot better but in this day and age it's hard to do a ton

1:42:58 better because things are so polarized and there

1:43:01 are just not as many split ticket voters.

1:43:04 Grace you've been looking at the data coming in tonight vote tallies.

1:43:08 What is standing out to you thus far on this primary night?

1:43:13 Yeah.

1:43:13 I think so far what's really standing out is you know

1:43:16 first of all the results of these state Senate elections in Indiana.

1:43:22 We're so far seeing the pro-Trump backed primary

1:43:26 challengers doing pretty well winning the, you know,

1:43:31 of races that have been called.

1:43:33 I believe in DDHQ's latest, yeah,

1:43:35 there have been four or five races that have been called.

1:43:39 All of which were won by challengers.

1:43:41 The one exception to that being Greg Good in District 38 who

1:43:45 had those two primary challengers as Jeffrey Skelly was talking about earlier.

1:43:50 So, it's an interesting interesting result, interesting, you know, split so far.

1:43:55 And I think there's going to be more even in, you know,

1:43:58 these relatively low turnout primaries.

1:44:00 I think that, you know, the data can tell us some some interesting things.

1:44:03 Jeff, I see I see you laughing there.

1:44:05 I thought it was interesting when you brought up the just the low turnout.

1:44:07 The low turnout cuz it is low.

1:44:09 I mean, Indiana, it's worth noting

1:44:11 there's no statewide race driving interest here.

1:44:14 So, you know, whereas in Ohio, you have races, you know,

1:44:18 you have obviously major statewide races even that aren't even contested,

1:44:21 but you do have the Supreme Court race.

1:44:24 You have other things going on up and down the ballot,

1:44:27 whereas in Indiana, you know, it elects its governors in presidential years.

1:44:31 There's no Senate race this year.

1:44:34 And Indiana is one of a couple

1:44:36 states in Michigan that nominate lower statewide offices,

1:44:41 like lower state executive, like attorney general or secretary of state.

1:44:45 They nominate those at a convention.

1:44:47 So, they don't nominate They only nominate governor and US Senate statewide.

1:44:50 And so, in that sense,

1:44:52 you just don't have a a race that's driving turnout as much

1:44:56 in the same way you do in in an Ohio, for instance.

1:44:59 All right.

1:44:59 Jeffrey, we'll say goodbye to you.

1:45:00 Kristen, we'll say goodbye to you.

1:45:02 Thank you so much for joining us tonight and providing your insight.

1:45:05 It's great to talk to a local reporter who's actually been

1:45:08 been in these states to give us some insight and background.

1:45:11 So, we appreciate that.

1:45:12 Grace is staying with me.

1:45:14 Let's go ahead and bring in Jerome Zao, predictions market expert.

1:45:18 He walked us through the Illinois primary weeks and weeks ago.

1:45:22 Jerome, thank you so much for joining us.

1:45:25 Prediction markets always fun.

1:45:27 It's sort of new wrinkle in our politics, a new wrinkle on an election night.

1:45:31 Uh, what are you looking for tonight?

1:45:34 Where is the action on the prediction

1:45:36 markets when you talk about these two primaries?

1:45:39 Yeah, well, as you guys have noted,

1:45:41 most of the primaries were not particularly contested.

1:45:44 Um, in Ohio specifically with, you know,

1:45:47 several uncontested races and then with the, uh, I guess most competitive,

1:45:53 um, you know, Senate or governor race there

1:45:55 being Vivek Ramaswamy in the Republican governor primary election.

1:46:00 And, you know, even with that, Ramaswamy has already won it.

1:46:04 Um, we actually have a market though that asks about his exact vote percent.

1:46:10 Mhm.

1:46:09 And whether he will actually clear 80% of the, uh, you know, vote.

1:46:14 As kind of like a metric of how united the party is,

1:46:16 there was some talk of, you know, Casey Pugh, like perhaps he could, um,

1:46:21 mount some sort of strong challenge to Ramaswamy and um,

1:46:25 currently that is the most,

1:46:26 I guess, competitive market in either Ohio or Indiana at the moment.

1:46:31 Uh, Grace, if you can't share your screen,

1:46:33 let's go ahead and look at that vote total.

1:46:34 So, the what the the number was about 80% Yes.

1:46:38 of the vote is Jerome.

1:46:39 I mean, I'm curious to see, uh, how much he actually, uh, did get.

1:46:43 Again, he was the front runner, uh, very much so,

1:46:45 very big name recognition, a lot of money.

1:46:48 Um, okay, 83% with, oh, it's only what, about 25% of, uh, ballots.

1:46:53 So, that number could ultimately come down.

1:46:56 Um, Yeah.

1:46:57 And and so it's it's funny because

1:46:59 when the votes first started coming in, right, he was actually closer to 85%.

1:47:04 So, as the vote, I think, you know, more election day votes have come in, uh,

1:47:08 his numbers have actually been dropping.

1:47:09 Which is what actually makes this market so much more competitive.

1:47:13 Okay.

1:47:14 Um, Grace, do us a favor, if you can stop sharing your screen,

1:47:17 uh, Jerome, are you able to share your screen?

1:47:19 If you Could you camera down just a little bit for us?

1:47:23 Yes.

1:47:24 I should be able to.

1:47:27 Okay.

1:47:26 Let's see.

1:47:31 All right.

1:47:32 And yeah, you able to share it?

1:47:36 Yes.

1:47:40 All right.

1:47:41 So just uh There we go.

1:47:43 reset with everybody.

1:47:44 You're watching the Hills Decision Desk 2026 date and we're

1:47:46 talking about the Illinois and I've done it again.

1:47:49 I need to I swear to God almost.

1:47:51 Indiana and I was so sorry Indiana and Ohio.

1:47:54 That's my fault.

1:47:55 That's my fault.

1:47:55 It's been a long day.

1:47:56 Um okay, so so so walk us through sort of what

1:47:58 the prediction markets were thinking when it comes to this Vivek Ramaswamy race.

1:48:02 So the Ramaswamy and currently as I said

1:48:06 the most competitive market is the vote percentage.

1:48:08 As you can see, you know,

1:48:09 his likelihood to get above 80% spiked when the first votes came in and now

1:48:13 I think as the more votes have come in and his vote has dropped,

1:48:16 it's actually more uncertain about where he'll actually end up.

1:48:19 But what really matters is the general election in Ohio.

1:48:24 And so now we know who the nominees will be officially, right?

1:48:27 Amy Acton on the Democratic side, Vivek on the Republican side.

1:48:31 This is actually an an extremely tight race in the markets.

1:48:36 Um you know, currently we would call

1:48:37 this a toss-up and it's something where you know,

1:48:42 Ohio this year it's a very, you know,

1:48:45 supposed to be a better year for Democrats.

1:48:47 Um but this is a Trump plus 11 state and you would need a, you know,

1:48:53 D plus nine national environment or so um

1:48:57 for a Democrat to win if the state shifted uniformly.

1:49:00 Um what's actually interesting is this governor's race is closer in the markets

1:49:06 than the Senate race um where we also have our nominees tonight.

1:49:09 And part of that, which I would hypothesize,

1:49:12 is due to the strength of Sherrod Brown, right?

1:49:16 The former senator.

1:49:17 He lost by around four uh when Harris lost the state by 11.

1:49:20 That's a 7% over-performance.

1:49:23 And, you know, there's some like math

1:49:25 there because Mike DeWine against John Husted, who is an incumbent.

1:49:29 But, given his strong electoral track record,

1:49:32 the markets give him a slight edge,

1:49:35 you know, over the Democrat Amy Acton in the governor's race.

1:49:38 Mhm.

1:49:39 So, you mentioned you mentioned, you know,

1:49:41 that you know, a plus nine or so environment.

1:49:44 In Rasmussen's most recent polling had in that generic

1:49:47 congressional ballot Democrats with that that 10-point lead over Republicans.

1:49:52 Still with a good amount of undecided voters.

1:49:56 What are prediction markets saying there in terms of are Democrats going

1:49:59 to be able to flip the house and I've been kind of maybe

1:50:01 more interested on where they think the sort of Senate races are

1:50:04 ultimately going to end up and whether Democrats can actually flip the Senate,

1:50:07 which go back to 2024,

1:50:09 a lot of folks thought that was just a an impossibility given

1:50:11 that you had a bunch of races in the ruby red states.

1:50:15 And also just the the fact that the president won by so much in 2024.

1:50:20 Yep, so the house is still strongly favoring Democrats.

1:50:23 Although, I think after the Louisiana decision in the Supreme Court,

1:50:29 Democrats dropped a little bit from 85% now down to around 80.

1:50:33 Just because, you know, they might lose a seat, a blue seat in Louisiana.

1:50:37 And there might be other ramifications

1:50:39 in the south that might be a longer-term thing,

1:50:41 but there's more uncertainty certainly with redistricting in the cycle.

1:50:46 Mhm.

1:50:46 Also coincides with Florida redrawing its maps to, I think,

1:50:49 with the goal of eliminating four Democratic seats,

1:50:52 which will balance out Virginia, which itself is still uncertain.

1:50:56 That, you know, the referendum is being challenged in the courts.

1:50:59 Not entirely clear, I think, how that will end up affecting the midterms.

1:51:03 So, there is more uncertainty in the house because of redistricting.

1:51:07 I will say in the Senate, Republicans, you know,

1:51:12 this has been a toss-up for a while and it's been very close,

1:51:15 but Republicans have, you know,

1:51:18 edged out to a slight lead in the market at 55% although, you know,

1:51:23 that's still not statistically significant in terms of saying it

1:51:27 leans one way or the other and I think you're right.

1:51:29 It's because these Senate races that Democrats must win are pretty

1:51:33 much all in double-digit Trump states if they want the majority, right?

1:51:36 That's Alaska, you know, Trump plus 13, Texas Trump plus like 14,

1:51:42 Ohio Trump plus 11, Iowa Trump plus 13.

1:51:45 These are all huge swings that need to happen and in more than

1:51:49 one and likely two of these states for Democrats to win the Senate.

1:51:53 So, I know you when we talk about redistricting Florida's jumping into it,

1:51:56 Mississippi's jumping into it, Maryland might do it.

1:51:58 Is there a market for the total number

1:52:02 of seats that Democrats or Republicans will have over like,

1:52:06 you know, Republicans to gain a net of five or six?

1:52:09 Is there a prediction market for what

1:52:11 how redistricting is ultimately going to shake out?

1:52:14 So, there is it's not it's not necessarily a question of, you know,

1:52:19 who will net the most seats because that I

1:52:21 think is is a little bit hard to measure.

1:52:23 It's it's more about which states will actually redistrict before the midterms.

1:52:28 And so, you could see we have a whole litany of states you know, you have Texas,

1:52:34 Ohio redistricted, California, North Carolina,

1:52:37 but now we have states like Alabama at 87% Louisiana 87%, Florida 79,

1:52:42 you know, Missouri which we did redraw its maps at 72,

1:52:47 Virginia only at 63 which reflects the uncertainty in the courts and then,

1:52:52 you know, other states like South Carolina have really jumped recently.

1:52:55 So, there's a lot of activity in this list

1:52:58 of states that might redistrict especially in recent weeks.

1:53:02 Okay.

1:53:03 Jeron, I ask you to stop sharing your screen

1:53:05 and then Grace I'll have you share your screen

1:53:07 while they do that, I'll go ahead and just

1:53:09 read you some of the other DDHQ projections we've got.

1:53:11 We've got Marlon Stutzman winning the Indiana US House District 3 GOP primary,

1:53:16 Jim Baird winning the District 4 GOP primary, and J.D.

1:53:19 Ford winning the District 5 GOP primary.

1:53:23 Andre Carson, this was a race that Grace was talking about earlier today.

1:53:27 DDHQ projects that he will win the Democratic

1:53:30 primary in the 7th District there Indiana.

1:53:34 And all in all, Grace, it doesn't seem like it was a very close,

1:53:37 even though there was a sort of crowded field.

1:53:40 No, it wasn't.

1:53:42 You know, I think the field was split a little bit between the three candidates,

1:53:45 but even still, even if they're combined all their three vote totals,

1:53:49 he would still win pretty comfortably.

1:53:51 And I think there is kind of an anti-establishment

1:53:56 anti-incumbent somewhat sentiment right now in the Democratic Party,

1:53:59 but it just, you know, goes to show that when you're an incumbent,

1:54:03 you have a lot of advantages.

1:54:04 And I think especially with the dynamic

1:54:06 that Jeffrey mentioned a little bit earlier,

1:54:08 there not really being a lot of big marquee statewide races on the ballot,

1:54:14 it's, you know, definitely benefits incumbents in certain situations.

1:54:20 Obviously not with these state senators who are losing their seats,

1:54:24 but that obviously has the added sort of Trump and money factor behind it.

1:54:28 We have about three more minutes left before we got to go to our next break.

1:54:32 Let's go ahead and if we can, Grace,

1:54:34 run through some of these Indiana primaries where you had

1:54:38 incumbents voting no on redistricting and getting a Trump-backed challenger.

1:54:41 Let's start in Senate District 1 and Dan Dernulc

1:54:44 to see how he is ultimately faring right now.

1:54:48 This race hasn't been called, correct?

1:54:51 No, DDHQ has not yet made a prediction, but he is down quite a by quite a bit.

1:54:56 Okay.

1:54:57 Let's go to Linda Rogers' race in Senate District 11.

1:55:04 Also no projection yet, but she is yeah, remains down.

1:55:09 All right.

1:55:10 Do we know Travis Holdman,

1:55:11 Jim Buck in 19 and 21 respectively both lost their races?

1:55:16 What about Spencer Deery in SD 23?

1:55:18 How is uh How's that race going right now?

1:55:22 Okay, he's he's he's maintained his lead throughout much of the night.

1:55:26 Yeah, that could be he could be one of the ones that manages to hold on.

1:55:30 Okay.

1:55:31 And then we have the Greg Good race that Kristen was

1:55:33 talking about incumbent there well known in the the Hoosier state.

1:55:37 Let's see how he is faring as we uh continue to watch these results come in.

1:55:43 Okay.

1:55:44 He's doing he's he's I seems like if I remember right,

1:55:46 he might be doing the best of all these incumbents uh

1:55:49 right now when it comes to these challengers backed by Trump.

1:55:53 Yeah, he is projected to hang on to his seat.

1:55:55 Okay.

1:55:56 And then we know Greg Walker lost his race or is projected to lose his race.

1:56:00 Um and then there was one more Rick Niemeyer.

1:56:03 Go to SD6.

1:56:04 He voted no on redistricting.

1:56:06 Um but there was no Trump backed challenger here.

1:56:10 No one got an endorsement and I guess perhaps it did not matter.

1:56:14 He is he's down by some nine-ish points a margin

1:56:17 um that has held pretty steady as the night has progressed.

1:56:23 Yeah, that is super interesting.

1:56:24 Yeah, his challenger not endorsed by the Trump aligned efforts here,

1:56:29 but still yes, still beating him.

1:56:32 All right.

1:56:33 Jerome, we got about a minute left before we have to say goodbye to you.

1:56:37 Moving forward through the primary calendar,

1:56:39 any states that really interest you or or that were

1:56:42 you're seeing a lot of action so far?

1:56:44 Yeah, I mean there's a lot that's going to happen in 2 weeks on May 19th.

1:56:49 We have Kentucky which you know,

1:56:51 the marquee race there is Thomas Massie's primary

1:56:54 and perhaps some of the fates of the you know, Indiana senators who had Trump uh

1:57:00 endorse against them and campaign against them.

1:57:03 You know, that's very reminiscent of what Massie is facing against Ed Galligan.

1:57:07 And so, it'll be interesting to see if he can survive.

1:57:10 And on that same day you have, you know,

1:57:12 Senate and governor primaries in a lot of other states including Georgia,

1:57:16 which is one of the key states in the fall as well,

1:57:19 both on the Senate and governor side.

1:57:21 And even though, you know,

1:57:23 the Democratic Senate is pretty much settled with Jon Ossoff.

1:57:27 There's a lot of certainty on the Republican side

1:57:29 as well as on both sides for the governor race.

1:57:31 And it's a state where if no one gets 50% it goes to a top two runoff.

1:57:36 All right.

1:57:37 So, the, you know, nominees may not be decided for a while.

1:57:39 All right.

1:57:40 We'll have to leave it there.

1:57:41 We're going to take another quick break.

1:57:43 You're watching The Hill's Decision Desk 2026 primary night.

1:57:46 Great states of Indiana and Ohio.

1:57:48 Chris Stirewalt going to rejoin us after the break.

1:57:49 We'll be right back.

1:59:55 Welcome back to the Hills Decision Desk 2026

1:59:59 data nerds primary night in Indiana and Ohio.

2:00:03 Finally got it right.

2:00:04 Grace Panetta back with us.

2:00:06 Let's go ahead and bring Chris Stirewalt back in.

2:00:09 Chris, we will pick up where we left off and the notion of how

2:00:13 these challengers in Indiana were going to do

2:00:15 against incumbents who voted no on redistricting.

2:00:18 By my count, we've got three incumbents that have fallen.

2:00:21 Travis Holdman, Jim Butt, Greg Walker.

2:00:23 Things are not looking good for Dan Dornuk, Rick Niemeyer,

2:00:27 and Linda Rogers, though those races have not been called.

2:00:30 Greg Good was able to hang on to his seat.

2:00:33 What do you make of the results thus far?

2:00:35 It appears like the president could be on his way

2:00:38 to a pretty good night in the Hoosier state.

2:00:40 Yeah, he's looks like he's on his way to going six for eight or seven for eight.

2:00:48 So, the certainly this points to for the most politically engaged Republicans,

2:00:56 Donald Trump, you know,

2:00:59 uh I mentioned when we talked earlier about how the president's job

2:01:02 approval rating among Republicans had fallen into the 70s for the first time.

2:01:06 Certainly this term, uh maybe since the post-January 6 period.

2:01:13 I don't recall what the numbers were like then.

2:01:15 But uh his critics ought to remember that the people

2:01:19 who leave first are the most lightly attached partisans.

2:01:25 They are the the people who are notionally

2:01:28 Republican uh and among the hardcore Republican voters,

2:01:31 what you see here tonight in this little core

2:01:34 sample taken in Indiana is that the these I think

2:01:38 that the two things you can take away is that the Trump

2:01:40 brand is very strong with the Republican primary electorate still.

2:01:45 Number one and number two, these folks want to fight, right?

2:01:49 These the the the bloodlust in both parties around redistricting is intense.

2:01:57 Um and what you saw in Virginia, what we're seeing in Florida,

2:02:02 and what happens here, we should remember that on the question of redistricting,

2:02:06 the southern states, the former Jim Crow states,

2:02:09 are going to are going to nick a few here.

2:02:12 They'll make a couple moves.

2:02:14 I don't know whether they can do it in uh in Alabama or not,

2:02:18 but Tennessee's taking a look and so let's say

2:02:21 there's a couple more that can be squeezed out.

2:02:25 Democrats are not going to stop.

2:02:27 Uh the the response here is going to be

2:02:30 that Democrats are going to look to break

2:02:33 up minority influence districts in these blue states

2:02:36 to try to squeeze out the remaining Republicans there.

2:02:39 So, I think that the bad news for Americans exhausted of this or for people

2:02:45 in search of a more humane representative way to draw districts,

2:02:50 we we've only just begun.

2:02:52 We've only just begun the gerrymandering Armageddon.

2:02:55 Uh we'll talk about a state not too far

2:02:58 from us here in DC that being Maryland, of course.

2:03:01 You got a state senator who's asked Maryland to pause

2:03:03 his primaries and hold a special session on redistricting.

2:03:06 Governor Moore had been all for redistricting very early on.

2:03:10 Bill Ferguson there in the Senate, the Senate President said no,

2:03:12 Governor, we're not going to do that.

2:03:14 They've been at this sort of impasse.

2:03:17 But just given where we've seen with the Voting Rights Act that came down,

2:03:20 the decision from the Supreme Court, Chris,

2:03:22 as you sit here today, do you think Maryland gets in?

2:03:24 I mean, look, there's not a lot of juice to squeeze out of that lemon.

2:03:27 They've just got that one congressional Republican.

2:03:31 But when the margins are so small, every seat counts.

2:03:35 Well, Wes Moore, no doubt,

2:03:37 is looking tonight and maybe taking some encouragement from this.

2:03:45 The Mike Braun, the governor in Indiana, was rebuked by his Senate, right?

2:03:52 His state Senate, Republican-controlled,

2:03:54 said we're not going to do this, and now a bunch

2:03:56 of them are going to lose their seats as a result.

2:04:00 Wes Moore did not want to have that kind

2:04:04 of fight with the state Senate in Maryland.

2:04:06 The the Maryland the lower chamber in Maryland was all for it.

2:04:10 Good, good, good.

2:04:11 Let's go, punch them in the nose.

2:04:13 And the state Senate balked.

2:04:15 And we should remember that there are

2:04:18 the considerations of people that are that go beyond,

2:04:22 go beneath, and go beyond the concerns about winning the house.

2:04:26 You know, we talked earlier about how I don't have a good

2:04:30 projection today about how the November results are going to look,

2:04:35 but I'd say 20 or more Democratic gains is would

2:04:40 not be an unreasonable number looking at where we are now.

2:04:43 And that means Democrats are running

2:04:45 the table basically uh in in competitive districts.

2:04:50 That Michigan race that we talked about earlier,

2:04:52 the special election in the Michigan Senate.

2:04:54 Uh there's not a ton of vote in there yet.

2:04:57 There's There's very little uh result of the very little of the vote in.

2:05:02 But if Democrats were to to win by, you know,

2:05:06 the 20 points or something there in what is Saginaw County,

2:05:11 Michigan is the is the the swing county of swing counties.

2:05:14 It's right up there with uh Luzerne County,

2:05:17 Pennsylvania or Erie County, Pennsylvania.

2:05:20 They're bellwethers.

2:05:21 They are 50/50 places.

2:05:23 If Democrats continue to perform like that in those places,

2:05:27 we will look back on this redistricting mania

2:05:31 that is costing these folks their seats in Indiana tonight,

2:05:34 that Wes Moore's going to wrestle with it, all this stuff.

2:05:36 And we will say it was ridiculous, right?

2:05:37 We will say that in the end it it

2:05:40 doesn't matter if Republicans lose the House by 10 seats,

2:05:44 15 seats, 15 seats, or 20 seats.

2:05:48 That it's just uh that that this has been a corrosive

2:05:52 experience that has damaged trust

2:05:55 between voters and their elected representatives,

2:05:58 betw- uh between and amongst the lawmakers and the governors.

2:06:03 It has been a real toxic stew.

2:06:05 And I don't think anybody's going to walk away

2:06:07 from this and say that it was worth it.

2:06:09 Uh Grace, do you have access to a to to a generic ballot?

2:06:12 Um cuz we were talking about that earlier.

2:06:14 Um you know, over the weekend and the numbers were

2:06:18 coming in and and you had Republican or Democrats up,

2:06:20 you know, about 10 points on the generic

2:06:22 ballot still with a good amount of folks undecided.

2:06:25 There was a Fox News poll a few weeks ago uh that showed

2:06:28 uh more voters trusted the Democrats than the Republicans on the economy.

2:06:33 Uh given that we are 6 months out, Chris, um where where are you at?

2:06:38 Do you you know, I I I know Bill

2:06:40 O'Reilly was uh speaking earlier today and said, you know,

2:06:43 if a Republican is running away from Trump, they they, you know,

2:06:46 run the risk of getting slaughtered uh in in their races.

2:06:49 How are you seeing the midterm shape up given that we are just

2:06:53 a little bit less than 6 months out with the president's poll numbers sagging,

2:06:56 with this generic ballot um showing Democrats being over,

2:07:00 you know, above Republicans right now?

2:07:02 So, in our weekly average uh for the Whole Hog Politics,

2:07:07 it's coming in about six points to about

2:07:10 a it's about a six-point lead for Democrats.

2:07:12 Now, we have to remember, Democrats uh need to win by three points or more

2:07:17 and just based on how the composition of the House goes.

2:07:22 Uh Republicans, as the rural party, do better.

2:07:25 They have They have a built-in structural advantage because

2:07:29 they control the less dense parts of the country.

2:07:33 Uh and also their performance with working-class

2:07:36 voters uh has been part of that, too.

2:07:39 But, let's just say for convenience's sake that for Democrats to win the House,

2:07:46 there is no popular national popular vote for the House

2:07:48 anymore than there is for the president's sake.

2:07:50 But, Democrats need to win the national popular vote

2:07:53 of all House votes cast for Democrats to get the House,

2:07:57 they need to win by at least three points.

2:07:58 Let's just say that's the rough arithmetic.

2:08:01 So, Democrats up by six would be plenty.

2:08:04 Um I will point out that uh in the 2018 midterms,

2:08:10 at this point, guess how much Democrats were up.

2:08:14 They were up about six points,

2:08:16 and they won 40 seats when they got eight and a half

2:08:20 percent eight and a 8.5 points uh in the national popular vote.

2:08:24 The generic ballot is useful, Um but more useful right now is the is

2:08:31 the knowledge that you have high intensity among Democrats.

2:08:35 That's what you're looking at in Michigan right now

2:08:38 as these votes are coming in in that Saginaw County district.

2:08:42 You have this high voter intensity among Democrats.

2:08:45 You have some apathy.

2:08:46 Good turnout for Republicans tonight.

2:08:48 Presidential year level turnout for Republicans in Indiana certainly.

2:08:53 This 13 map million dollars I think we heard

2:08:56 earlier tonight will get some folks to the polls.

2:09:00 Um but Democrats are beating down the doors to go vote.

2:09:05 So in the base versus base contest Democrats have the advantage.

2:09:08 Then we say, "Okay, what about the persuadable voter?

2:09:11 What about the independents who dislike both parties?" And when you look at what

2:09:15 and I don't like the term double haters uh cuz I don't think it's hatred.

2:09:19 I think it's just disdain.

2:09:20 I think they just have I think they have there's contempt perhaps

2:09:24 but certainly disdain for both parties for about 40% of the country.

2:09:29 When you look at the people who have negative

2:09:31 opinions about both parties Democrats are winning by 30 points.

2:09:35 And that's that's just sort of where Republicans are hit under the waterline.

2:09:40 And for the next 6 months Republicans are going

2:09:44 to live out the same uh waking nightmare where they say,

2:09:48 "Okay, well what if we did this?

2:09:50 What if we said that?

2:09:51 What if we tried this message?

2:09:53 What if we did this other thing?" And in the end the the verdict

2:09:56 of the ages for midterms is when you're

2:09:58 in for a beating you're going to get one.

2:10:00 You when you're in for it you are just going to get one.

2:10:03 Uh they may mitigate it if gas prices drop a buck.

2:10:08 Uh if things get better, uh if prices come down,

2:10:12 it may it may it may ease some of the pain.

2:10:16 But I think here at the 6-month mark this is where um um Bill

2:10:21 you said said uh Bill O'Reilly said that if you run away from Trump,

2:10:25 you're going to get slaughtered.

2:10:27 Well, if you run to Trump, you're probably going to get slaughtered.

2:10:29 You're probably just going to get slaughtered.

2:10:31 And the And the as as the great

2:10:35 uh political philosopher Chris Kristofferson said,

2:10:38 "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose." So,

2:10:40 if I was a Republican, I'd spend the next 6 months doing exactly whatever

2:10:44 I wanted to do cuz nobody knows what works anyway.

2:10:47 And if you're probably going to lose, you're probably going to lose.

2:10:49 Yeah.

2:10:50 You know, what was interesting is is back to 2024,

2:10:53 the the thought of Democrats perhaps retaking

2:10:54 the Senate was almost viewed as impossible.

2:10:56 It is still very much an uphill battle,

2:10:58 but you got some saying maybe it's not impossible, but improbable.

2:11:02 Any chance that that the Democrats could ultimately pull

2:11:05 off this this huge upset and retake both chambers?

2:11:08 I'd give them oh, it's not quite 40%, but it's pretty like it's it's decent.

2:11:16 They have a decent shot.

2:11:18 So, if it's a 90% likelihood that the Democrats are going to retake the house,

2:11:22 and now we're really just talking about

2:11:24 is it another three-seat majority or is it,

2:11:27 you know, a 15- or 20-seat majority that would be useful?

2:11:31 Um, that's mostly the question of the house.

2:11:34 In the Senate, it is true, you got to pick the lock,

2:11:36 but you know, we're talking about Ohio tonight.

2:11:39 Um, can Sherrod Brown beat John Husted?

2:11:43 Yes, he certainly could.

2:11:45 Um, the the way to think about it,

2:11:49 the way I think about it is there are 11 Senate

2:11:52 races in the United States that are at least nominally competitive, right?

2:11:58 And this is sweeping them all in, the leaners.

2:12:01 You take in New Hampshire, you take in Minnesota,

2:12:04 you take take them all in and say there's 11

2:12:07 that are in battleground condition to some degree or another.

2:12:11 Democrats then have to win eight.

2:12:14 So, that's that's a lot uh because they've

2:12:18 got they've got fat in the fire themselves.

2:12:21 They have retirement in Michigan.

2:12:23 They have retirement in Minnesota.

2:12:25 They have retirement in New Hampshire.

2:12:26 They they have work to do in these places.

2:12:29 And they've only got a couple pickups that look likely.

2:12:33 Maine and North Carolina.

2:12:36 And then after that you just start flipping coins.

2:12:38 But we will definitely Vice President Vance was in Iowa.

2:12:42 Or is going to Iowa.

2:12:43 And the very fact that they're trying to shore up Iowa

2:12:47 which is an R plus 12 or I forget what Iowa's been.

2:12:53 But a good a good indication for what the battle for the Senate looks like is

2:12:58 that you will see increasingly Republicans spending lots

2:13:01 of money and lots of time in red states.

2:13:04 They will be spending money and time in Ohio.

2:13:07 In Iowa.

2:13:08 In Texas.

2:13:09 North Carolina they're going to write off pretty quickly.

2:13:12 I would imagine.

2:13:14 But you you can you can tell where the struggle

2:13:17 is based on where the where the fight is being waged.

2:13:20 And I think it's going to be preponderantly in red states.

2:13:23 Since you mentioned it I'll be a little bit selfish.

2:13:25 I'm a Texas guy and that race is

2:13:27 Paxton v Cornyn race is absolutely fascinating to watch.

2:13:32 Big runoff coming up later this month.

2:13:35 Where do you think that ultimately lands Chris?

2:13:38 Because you got a lot of people who are very

2:13:40 much worried that Ken Paxton ultimately could pull this thing off.

2:13:43 And not necessarily to say that James Talarico would be a shoe-in to win.

2:13:46 He still very much has a steep hill to climb.

2:13:49 But it's not a steep of a climb if it's

2:13:51 John Cornyn against James Talarico as compared to what Ken Paxton.

2:13:55 It's the Strait of Hormuz primary.

2:13:57 Uh we've got we've got uh uh two weeks or so

2:14:04 until until primary day until runoff primary day down there.

2:14:08 And the Republicans have not found a way to resolve the conflict.

2:14:12 And it has been damaging and it has been wasteful.

2:14:15 There is no defensible reason from the practice of politics to have a a cruel,

2:14:26 mudslinging, awful primary like this in a state that look,

2:14:32 if John Cornyn if Ken Paxton had dropped out of this out of this race after

2:14:38 finishing second in the first round if the president

2:14:42 had done what many people said he was

2:14:43 going to do and endorse Cornyn and told Paxton that he was going to get to go

2:14:47 join Shield of the Americas with Kristi Noem

2:14:49 or whatever and gotten him out of the race, we wouldn't be talking about Texas.

2:14:55 We would not be talk No one would be talking about Texas.

2:14:57 In very short order, they'd say, "Oh, he's an incumbent.

2:15:00 Yeah, it's a good Democratic year,

2:15:02 but Talarico's a kid and he has a bunch of baggage from old sermons

2:15:07 and stuff that he gave and Cornyn can Cornyn can muscle this thing out.

2:15:11 I still think that even with Ken Paxton as damaged of a candidate

2:15:16 as Paxton is as as just a he is you know,

2:15:20 the the flea-bitten resume of Ken Paxton can

2:15:24 still beat James Talarico given how Republican Texas is.

2:15:28 But it's going to be brutal and it's going to be expensive.

2:15:32 It's going to take all the money that you know,

2:15:34 the Republicans right now are very happy about

2:15:36 their cash advantage for fundraising on the Senate side.

2:15:39 They're very happy about it.

2:15:40 And it's good for them.

2:15:42 They they should be happy about that cuz they're going to need it.

2:15:45 And they're going to need it in race after race.

2:15:48 They're going to have to defend Texas with as you know as a Texan

2:15:52 uh how many of the top 10 largest media markets are in Texas?

2:15:56 I don't know.

2:15:56 It's like five Yes.

2:15:58 It's up there.

2:15:58 It's a lot.

2:15:59 It's a lot.

2:16:00 It's it's this crazy this crazily expensive place to run.

2:16:05 They're going to have to spend it uh in Ohio.

2:16:08 They're going to have to spend it in, uh Maine.

2:16:12 They're going to have to buy all that Boston media.

2:16:14 They're just going to bleed money.

2:16:16 The Republicans are just going to have to spend and spend and spend

2:16:19 because they're going to be fighting this war on so many fronts.

2:16:23 I think Democrats can win the Senate.

2:16:25 They just have to get very lucky.

2:16:26 So, if the Senate is,

2:16:28 uh if the house is 90 10 likely to turn Democratic to some degree.

2:16:33 Uh I'll I'll I'll make the fearless forecast that I'll deny ever having made

2:16:38 and I'll say that it's a 35% uh

2:16:41 likelihood that the Democrats will win the Senate.

2:16:44 Okay.

2:16:44 Okay, that's a conversation for another day as we await that primary.

2:16:48 Uh Grace, let's let's get back uh to Indiana.

2:16:50 We've got about 12 or so minutes left.

2:16:53 Want to go back through these races.

2:16:55 Again, we've got three challengers, uh three incumbents, excuse me,

2:16:58 who lost two Trump-backed challengers after voting no against redistricting.

2:17:03 Uh if you can, Grace, share your screen.

2:17:05 Let's go ahead and look at Senate District 1.

2:17:06 See how Dan Dernulc is is holding up against this uh Trump-backed challenger.

2:17:10 He was not doing very well and he continues to do not very well.

2:17:15 Uh has this race been called?

2:17:16 Is that Is Am I seeing that green check mark?

2:17:19 Okay.

2:17:19 Yes, you're seeing the green check mark.

2:17:20 Uh yes, um Dan Dernulc he has lost his seat to Trevor De Reese.

2:17:25 Okay.

2:17:26 Uh head to Senate District 6, Rick Niemeyer, who voted no,

2:17:29 but there was no Trump endorsement here uh

2:17:32 in this race uh in Senate District 6 for Rick Niemeyer.

2:17:36 Okay, he's So, that's it's that nine-point lead that he just hasn't been able

2:17:40 to eat into with about three quarters of of the results uh coming in.

2:17:44 So, we'll just leave him in in the maybe column.

2:17:46 And then SD 11, Linda Rogers.

2:17:48 Let's see how she's doing uh because she was also down.

2:17:52 Yes, and there has been a call there.

2:17:54 Yes.

2:17:54 Oh, okay.

2:17:55 All right, another one in the Trump column.

2:17:57 Okay, so Another one in the Trump column.

2:17:59 four.

2:17:59 And then Spencer Deery, uh he was holding on a little bit there in SD 23.

2:18:03 That's the one.

2:18:04 Yes, tell us tell us.

2:18:06 We want to know.

2:18:07 Oh, that one's so close.

2:18:09 Ooh.

2:18:09 Yes, that's the one to watch.

2:18:11 Interesting.

2:18:12 With what?

2:18:12 Is that Is that 95% reporting so far?

2:18:15 Yeah.

2:18:16 And he's only up by goodness, not even I We're journalists.

2:18:22 I'm terrible at math on the on the fly.

2:18:23 It's It's It's not very much.

2:18:24 He's He's not up by Not very much.

2:18:27 1.4 points.

2:18:28 Yes.

2:18:29 Uh the this this has been close all night.

2:18:33 This this one has been cooking.

2:18:35 Mhm.

2:18:36 This is a It's a real nail-biter.

2:18:38 Wow.

2:18:38 Really really interesting.

2:18:39 I I I can only imagine what the Truth Social post

2:18:42 is going to look like uh later on tonight if these results

2:18:46 hold and you only get uh maybe what one uh incumbent

2:18:50 able to hold on uh to their seat there in in Indiana,

2:18:54 which is which is absolutely fascinating.

2:18:56 Um let's move over to Ohio just for a little bit

2:18:59 as we as we wrap up here again with Vivek Ramaswamy,

2:19:01 Amy Acton uh looking uh like that is going to be

2:19:04 or it is going to be the general election race uh come November.

2:19:09 Do you guys at DDHQ have any polling

2:19:11 on that head-to-head match-up by any chance, Grace?

2:19:14 Ooh, that's a good question.

2:19:15 I don't know if I have that immediately handy for me in my dashboard here.

2:19:20 While you look for it, I'll ask Chris about this race.

2:19:23 Um any chance Amy Acton can can pull this off against

2:19:26 the guy who has name recognition and a lot of money behind him?

2:19:30 Sure.

2:19:31 Oh, yeah.

2:19:31 He's in trouble.

2:19:32 I I I think he's uh Vivek Ramaswamy's probably uh still favored.

2:19:37 You'd You'd favor him to win, but it's it's it's going to be hard

2:19:41 and it's going to be hard for Jon Husted, too.

2:19:44 Um I think you know, when we were talking earlier tonight,

2:19:48 I think Ohio's the canary in the coal mine.

2:19:49 If the Republicans are are swept in Ohio uh by the time we get to Labor Day,

2:19:54 you know it's going to be bad.

2:19:56 Uh do you let guests Do you do you guys play requests?

2:19:58 Do you let guests ask for requests?

2:20:01 By all means, go ahead.

2:20:03 What you got?

2:20:04 I just want I'm obsessed with Michigan State Senate District 35.

2:20:08 I just it's it's every it's everything to me.

2:20:12 Uh, and I it's I don't know how close it's going to be,

2:20:16 but I just want to say that as an elect if if we are going to be data nerds,

2:20:21 let me just say there are very few counties

2:20:23 in America that are magic unicorns like Saginaw County.

2:20:28 Saginaw, I believe has has voted

2:20:31 for the winner of the national presidential election,

2:20:34 I think in five consecutive presidential contests.

2:20:37 Oh, wow.

2:20:38 Okay.

2:20:39 I've I got I've got a fever and only Saginaw can cure it.

2:20:43 So, for those unfamiliar with this race, it's a state Senate race,

2:20:47 but the Democratic trifecta is on the line.

2:20:50 If the Republican comes out, you end up with a 19-19 tie in the Michigan Senate.

2:20:54 If the Democrat wins, ultimately the trifecta holds with the house,

2:20:58 Senate, and of course, Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

2:21:02 So, it looks like the the Democrat is up here right now, Cheddar Green,

2:21:05 but a lot of a lot of votes still yet to be counted.

2:21:09 Am I seeing that right?

2:21:10 One just about 1% of the total in right now, Grace?

2:21:15 Yeah.

2:21:16 Yeah, that's right.

2:21:16 Just a little bit of the vote in so far.

2:21:18 And also, Cheddar Green is a great name.

2:21:20 I may I may I may start asking you all to refer to me as Cheddar Green.

2:21:25 Cheddar Green Star Wars, we like we like it.

2:21:27 I believe we have Jeffrey in, is that right, Tom?

2:21:29 Is Jeffrey here ready to ready to go?

2:21:31 All right.

2:21:32 Um, I am here.

2:21:33 I should have used a different name, like,

2:21:35 you know, Elbridge Elbridge Gerry, not Jerry, wrongly.

2:21:38 I don't know if if Chris pointed that out, but Put it in a put it in a GIF.

2:21:43 Yes.

2:21:43 Yes.

2:21:44 I did notice that and got a good laugh out of that.

2:21:46 instead of Gerrymandering.

2:21:47 There you go.

2:21:48 There you go.

2:21:48 If only.

2:21:49 If only.

2:21:50 Uh, Jeffrey, anything anything standing out to you

2:21:52 and you can share your screen if you want.

2:21:53 Grace, if you want to throw yours down,

2:21:54 but anything standing out to you as we sort of get to toward

2:21:57 the end of our coverage here of a primary night in Indiana and Ohio?

2:22:01 Yeah, I mean, I I think at this point it to your to to to Chris's point,

2:22:05 the the Michigan State Senate race is is sort of the next thing on the docket,

2:22:10 but you know, it it might run a bit later to get final results there.

2:22:13 But the the one race that is left out in Indiana of that group of State

2:22:19 Senate seats that is looking very close is the the race in the 23rd District.

2:22:27 And now that that one was interesting.

2:22:29 Spencer Deery is the the incumbent.

2:22:31 And he had just about the most money spent against him

2:22:35 of the of the he's so he's incumbent

2:22:38 opposed by President Trump who endorsed Paula Overhaver, the the the opponent.

2:22:42 Uh, he so Deery had it was like over

2:22:45 $2 million spent on ads in the State Senate race.