"A Deal With BARBARIANS!" Scott Horton FIERY Debate On Iran War & Trump | With John Bolton

0:00 We have propagandized so heavily in the United

0:02 States of America that the only reason anyone would

0:06 ever criticize Israel is just because they hate

0:08 Jews and want to kill them all or something.

0:10 And for people to have gone from believing that to where

0:15 they are now is due solely to two things.

0:19 Israel's slaughter in the Gaza Strip and then dragging

0:22 us into another no- win war in the Middle East.

0:26 has threatened to nuke London and Paris and Berlin and Rome.

0:31 It's called the Samson option.

0:33 They said if the Western democracy

0:35 you say you're not a crackpot conspiracy.

0:36 It's no serious.

0:37 That's the second time you tried to say conspiracy

0:39 to me as though that debunks anything that I've said.

0:42 Is the IDF the most moral army in the world?

0:45 No, it tries to be.

0:47 That's not true.

0:47 They deliberately target women and children.

0:49 Um I don't agree with you.

0:51 I wouldn't do a deal with the regime in Tehran.

0:53 I don't trust them.

0:54 So what would you do?

0:59 Well, there are many reasons why Israel gets

1:00 to blame all the credit for the Iran war.

1:02 They include the words of a US Secretary of State,

1:04 the Speaker of the House, several sen senior US senators,

1:07 the former US Secretary of State,

1:09 and the extremely detailed insider reporting of the New York Times and others.

1:13 Even without all that, the fundamental truth is Israel has the most

1:17 to gain from a conflict which has so far delivered only grave costs.

1:21 After nine weeks and 25 billion dollars,

1:24 the current peace talks are centered on opening a waterway that was

1:27 open to maritime trade for thousands of years before this war

1:30 began and on limiting Iran's nuclear ambitions to a level they

1:34 were at in the agreement which the current US president scrapped.

1:37 With inflation and gas prices heading up

1:39 while Trump's poll numbers head ever down,

1:42 many are urging the US president to accept defeat, declare victory,

1:46 and bring it all to an end in a few minutes.

1:48 will debate that with a special studio panel

1:51 assembled in honor of the visiting Scott Horton.

1:53 Scott, great to see you in the uncensored tube.

1:56 We finally meet.

1:57 We begin with Ambassador John Bolton,

1:59 former US National Security Adviser who thinks

2:01 the US must stay on and finish the job.

2:04 Uh, Ambassador Bolton, welcome back to Uncensored.

2:07 Glad to be with you.

2:08 What does finish the job mean?

2:10 Because most experts that I've talked to, whatever their view

2:15 about whether this should should have started or not,

2:18 they agree that if the endgame goal,

2:20 which President Trump has now sort of tried to reinforce and ring

2:24 fence of stopping Iran developing a nuclear weapon is still the goal,

2:29 then that has to mean that the enriched

2:32 uranium is either destroyed or handed over.

2:36 and that the only way if the Iranians resist

2:38 that of getting the enriched uranium is to have a ground invasion.

2:42 Otherwise, there's no way of getting it.

2:44 Um, so what does finish the job to you mean?

2:50 Well, let's start with Trump.

2:51 I don't know what his objectives are

2:52 and they've been unclear from the beginning.

2:54 I I know what my objective is and has been for 20

2:57 years and that is there is no route to peace and security

3:01 in the Middle East in any lasting basis until the regime

3:05 in Tehran is removed and that includes dealing with uh the nuclear program.

3:10 Now I I thought that might have been

3:11 Trump's objective at the beginning of the attacks.

3:14 I don't I don't think it is today.

3:16 I think today he desperately wants to get out.

3:19 Uh but but over the long term, even if uh the nuclear issue is the center

3:24 of attention for Trump and and that's understandable,

3:27 there's there's simply no secure guaranteed way to accomplish

3:32 the objective that he says he wants until

3:34 you get a regime uh in Tehran that flatly

3:38 disavows any nuclear intentions and does what Marmar Gaddafi's

3:43 regime in Libya did in 2003 2004 and allow at that in that case US and UK uh

3:52 uh nuclear experts to come in and pack up

3:55 the Libyan nuclear program and take it to Oakidge,

3:58 Tennessee, where it resides today.

4:00 That's how you deal with it with certainty.

4:03 Right.

4:03 So, but so what you're talking about this job finishing can only come if there's

4:09 a change of regime and they agree to to hand over the enrianium or destroy it.

4:16 Is that how you see it?

4:18 Well, I think that's the only certain way to do it.

4:20 And it's not just on the nuclear side.

4:22 It's on the support for international terrorism

4:24 and on uh closing the straight of Hormuz.

4:27 Right.

4:27 Right now, I think the uh

4:29 the Ayatollas and the Revolutionary Guard think they're

4:32 in a position to open and close the straight

4:34 like turning a light switch on and off.

4:36 And uh that that's simply unacceptable.

4:39 Not not just to the United States, but certainly to the Gulf.

4:42 How do you stop I mean, you know, how how do you actually stop them?

4:45 I mean, I think that's true.

4:47 And I think there's been this asymmetric war where you have a military war where

4:51 America and Israel's been pounding the military capability

4:55 of Iran and I'm sure massively damaging it.

4:58 But they very quickly realize the Iranians that if

5:00 they control the straight of Hormuse they can cause enormous

5:04 global damage to the global uh economic uh market

5:08 particularly in relation to energy and fertilizer and so on.

5:11 and they've been whacking their neighboring Gulf States in a way

5:14 that's been very damaging to their business models going forward.

5:18 So, if you're Iran and you think that the United States wants

5:22 to get rid of the regime and decapitate your nuclear uh ambition as well,

5:29 where's the incentive to do any deal that takes away

5:32 your leverage now that you've realized you've got this tremendous leverage?

5:37 I I wouldn't do a deal with the regime in Tehran.

5:40 I don't trust them.

5:41 Uh and I don't think that uh simply doing a deal kind of security you need.

5:46 Well, let let me make the predicate point which I think is important.

5:49 Uh the the the the regime didn't wake

5:52 up four or five weeks ago and say, "Amazing.

5:56 Why don't we close the straight

5:57 of Hormuz?" Nobody's ever thought of that before.

6:00 Uh everybody knows, everybody who looks at a map knows that the Gulf itself,

6:06 not just the straight of Hormuz, uh is easily disrupted.

6:09 In in the US Navy, they refer to sailing in the Arabian Gulf or Persian Gulf,

6:14 you can take your pick, as like sailing in a bathtub.

6:17 They don't they don't like being in there.

6:20 Uh, and it's not like Iran hasn't tried to disrupt uh commercial trafficking,

6:24 particularly in oil, in the Gulf and through the straight before.

6:27 They did it in 1987 and 88.

6:30 Reagan reflaged Kuwaiti tankers as American tankers,

6:34 and we escorted them through.

6:36 So, this was this was obvious uh uh from the get-go uh as as was

6:41 the possibility that Iran would attack the Gulf Arab states, which it did.

6:45 And Trump knew that.

6:46 He may say nobody expected that, but I will tell you in the first

6:50 term when I was arguing that our policy should be regime change,

6:54 uh those who objected to it raised all of these potential contingencies.

6:58 So, the fact that this is a problem now is

7:01 more due to Trump either not paying attention to what

7:04 his advisers were telling them or thinking he could somehow

7:08 fake his way through it without taking this into account.

7:11 That that's a that's one of the problems

7:13 with the way Trump has gone about this whole operation.

7:16 Okay.

7:17 So, you don't want to do a deal with the regime.

7:21 I mean, do you think a ground invasion is the only

7:24 way that you could get to where you want to get to?

7:26 And if not, I'm still No.

7:29 Okay.

7:29 So, so, so let's rule that off the table as well.

7:32 I'm still struggling to see how you get what you want as an endgame.

7:37 Well, I if you look at the situation inside Iran,

7:41 uh I think the regime is before the attacks was

7:44 at its weakest point since it took power in 1979.

7:48 The population is overwhelmingly opposed to the regime.

7:52 uh young people uh ma who make up 70% of the population are under

7:57 30 massively dissatisfied with the regime when

8:00 the internet's on when they look across

8:02 the Gulf they know they could have a different life ever since the murder

8:05 of the young Kurdish woman Masamini over three

8:08 years ago almost 50% of the population i.e.

8:12 The women are dissatisfied.

8:14 They've told the Ayatollah,

8:16 "You do not speak the word of God when it comes to our dress code.

8:20 It's not just about the dress code.

8:21 It's a fundamental attack on the legitimacy

8:24 of the Ayatollah system." The ethnic groups are dissatisfied.

8:28 The Kurds, the Beluchi, the Armenians, the sorry, the Azeris, and inside Iran,

8:33 the economy was a wreck uh even before the attack began.

8:37 That's why people were demonstrating in December.

8:39 Yeah.

8:39 None of these people have been demonstrating since the war started.

8:43 So again, I mean, I know that I know the That's for sure.

8:46 Yeah, but I know the Israelis the Isra murdered over 40,000 of them.

8:50 That'll get your attention, right?

8:51 And I just have that debate with with a a guy in Tan.

8:54 But but the the Israelis, according to the New York Times,

8:58 sold Trump on a series of events that would be triggered by killing

9:02 the Supreme Leader and a lot of the top uh members of the regime,

9:06 that the IRGC would collapse from within and that the people

9:09 would rise up and you would get a natural revolution

9:12 and that the straight of Hormuse would be a distraction

9:15 that no one would be interested in in in worrying about.

9:18 Well, the top bit happened,

9:20 but all that happened was the Supreme Leader got replaced by his son.

9:23 The the others all moved up a notch.

9:25 The IGC appears to still have an iron grip on the country.

9:29 There have been no uprisings whatsoever since

9:32 this war started for a number of reasons,

9:33 but none of the people that you're talking

9:35 about have risen up in this war at all.

9:38 And Australia foremost has become this enormously effective weapon

9:41 for the Iranian regime in causing

9:44 massive damage both economically and politically.

9:47 So again, I mean, I'm I'm I'm just asking if you

9:51 were in charge right now to get to finish the job,

9:56 as you put it, what do you actually do?

10:00 Well, it it would take me about two hours

10:01 to to go through the short answer and explain what's wrong.

10:05 Well, let's start with the with the idea

10:07 that somehow BB Netanyahu conned Trump into this operation.

10:11 You know, in the first term, Netanyahu was in favor of regime change, too.

10:16 and he said to Trump, I'm sure, the same things he said in the second term.

10:20 So, the idea that that the US government

10:23 is an unwitting tool of the Israelis isn't true.

10:26 I don't know what convinced Trump to do this.

10:28 I was as amazed as anybody else, but it wasn't because of uh BB Netanyahu.

10:33 There there must have been some other factor.

10:35 Uh and in indeed, Trump didn't do a lot

10:39 of necessary uh preliminary work before the attacks began.

10:43 It's not a question of the people going out into the streets

10:46 willy-nilly so they can be machine gunned by the besieged militia again.

10:50 It's a question of preparation.

10:52 The widespread opposition needs resources.

10:56 It needs telecommunications capabilities.

10:58 It needs money.

10:59 It needs weapons.

11:00 All of which we could have been supplying but do not.

11:03 Okay.

11:03 But we are Look, we I've got to wrap this up.

11:05 But we are where we are.

11:07 And again, if you were the president of the United States right now

11:10 and you say we got to finish the job, what do you do?

11:14 I would do two things.

11:15 One, I would clear the straight of Hormuz militarily,

11:18 which I thought Trump had started about 48 hours

11:21 ago until he paused it in typical Trump fashion.

11:24 Uh, and I would massively ramp up support for opponents of the regime inside,

11:29 in including uh the ethnic groups,

11:32 many of which are already armed and organized.

11:34 I think that kind of internal pressure combined with maintaining the economic

11:39 pressure of the blockade against Iranian exports uh and opening up the rest

11:43 of the Gulf so that its oil could come out into international markets

11:47 and bring the prices down globally I I think would be very powerful.

11:52 It's not all I would do, but those are the two things I'd start with.

11:55 Okay, Ambassador Balden, always good to have you on our sensor.

11:58 Thank you very much.

11:59 Thank you.

12:00 Well, joining me in the studio, as I said very excitedly,

12:02 Scott Horton, author of Provoked and a new book,

12:05 which we'll discuss in a moment, journalist with the Spectator, uh,

12:08 Jonathan Sachadotti, and Bob Stewart,

12:11 the former Conservative MP and Army Colonel.

12:13 Welcome to all of you.

12:14 Uh, unusual to have a threeman panel in the studio.

12:17 So, great to have you all.

12:19 Uh, Scott, you were, I would say,

12:21 sniggering was probably a right way of describing it as some

12:24 of the things you were hearing there from Ambassador Bolton.

12:26 He's an entertaining guy.

12:28 Go on, explain.

12:30 I mean, he thinks this is quite straightforward.

12:31 What you do is you basically militarily

12:34 seize back control of the straight of Hulmmoose

12:37 and you empower and arm the people of Iran to rise up against the regime.

12:43 Well, and that's what he's been saying.

12:44 And Israel didn't force any of this.

12:47 Yeah.

12:47 Well, he added the word unwitting as though Donald Trump wasn't convinced.

12:52 Of course, Donald Trump is the president.

12:53 He's the one who issues the orders and pulls the trigger.

12:56 But he was convinced by Netanyahu.

12:58 We all know that.

12:59 No question about that.

13:00 That the question was where do you move the red line?

13:03 And Netanyahu convinced him to move the red line to enrichment at all.

13:06 Any enrichment is the same thing as a weapons program and we won't tolerate it.

13:10 As Trump says, no nuclear and just, you know, exceptionally vague like that.

13:14 But, you know, we have John Bolton um on a recorded conference call with Apac

13:18 in 2007 saying that through all the sanctions

13:21 and all the bullying, this is in the W.

13:23 Bush administration,

13:24 they were trying to get Iran to withdraw from the non-prololiferation

13:28 treaty and kick the inspectors out of the country

13:31 as he said then to put that would put us in a better position to launch the war.

13:35 He wants full regime change.

13:37 And then you hear his answer.

13:38 He has no answer to how to do this.

13:40 Oh, we'll arm some Kurdish communists from PJ.

13:43 It wasn't the most convincing way that this all gets resolved, I must say.

13:46 Yeah.

13:46 And then and then he says, "Oh, we'll we'll arm the Belookis." He means jandala,

13:50 the bin ladenite head chopping, suicide bombing lunatics.

13:54 That's who he means by the belooki desenters which

13:56 America and Israel backed against Iran in the W.

14:00 Bush and Obama administrations.

14:02 And then I think it's so crucial that he continues and the war party

14:05 on on uh you know the media and in the government continue to push this lie,

14:10 this completely preposterous hoax,

14:12 Pierce that the Iranian government massacred 40,000

14:16 people in January to put down that insurrection.

14:18 First of all, we already know Donald Trump

14:20 admitted now that we're living in the future here.

14:22 Donald Trump admitted last week or two

14:24 weeks ago that Israel armed those Kurdish groups.

14:27 Those weren't peaceful protesters.

14:28 There were peaceful protests,

14:30 but the fighting was not the massacre of peaceful protests.

14:33 The fighting was fighting against Kurdish communists who were sacking police

14:37 stations and burning mosques and trying to overthrow the government there.

14:41 And then just think about that casualty count, 40,000.

14:44 That's like the battle of Gettysburg.

14:46 You know, the worst well,

14:48 I don't I don't know about all of them, but in Ukraine,

14:50 the worst massacre of the Holocaust was at Babinar in September of 1941,

14:57 where the German Nazis coraled 30,000 Jews

15:01 and massacred them and dunked them in a ravine.

15:04 30,000 of them.

15:05 It was one of the absolute worst atrocities of the entire Second World War.

15:11 We're to believe that the Ayatollah pulled that off something like that.

15:15 maybe 10,000 more than that in January without carpet bombing his own city,

15:21 without committing some kind of dresdon,

15:23 without leaving tens of thousands of body bags everywhere.

15:28 And what do we see in the propaganda?

15:31 12 body bags.

15:32 And then they go, "Oh, how can you deny the massacre?" But see,

15:35 here's the important point is one is this was

15:37 propaganda to get you outraged so you'll support the war.

15:40 But two, it's still bolsters this propaganda line

15:44 that the regime in Tyrron has no support whatsoever because why?

15:49 After all, in January, they had to kill 40,000 of their own

15:52 people to presumably make what I don't know,

15:55 the other hundreds of thousands of them go home.

15:57 But it's just not true.

15:59 It was some Kurdish communists who were attacking

16:01 in a protest that they kind of co-opted,

16:04 a protest that was started by the United States,

16:06 waging economic war against the currency.

16:09 So, it's just a lie that they were so desperate to cling

16:12 on to power that they had to use that level of ultraviolence to do so.

16:16 And that's why John Bolton and Donald Trump

16:19 were so surprised when when once the war started,

16:22 there were rallies of hundreds of thousands of people

16:24 in downtown Tyrron in support of the regime there.

16:27 Now, I'm not saying I support the regime there.

16:29 I'm saying people there do and especially when you bomb them.

16:32 Well, there's no doubt that they they have a body of support there.

16:34 I think that's unquestionable.

16:36 Uh Jonathan Sachadi, your response to that?

16:40 I'd rather respond if I can to what Trump's

16:42 actually doing because a lot of obviously we don't

16:44 agree on quite a lot of things to do with the view um of what's going on now,

16:47 but what Ambassador Bolton said,

16:49 I firmly agree with which is this seems like a really strange moment for Trump.

16:54 Um you could have been thinking about this 24 hours,

16:57 48 hours ago and thought Trump is pulling off a master stroke.

17:01 He's paused the actual war, the military action,

17:04 and instead he's now strangling the Iranian regime with this economic move.

17:08 And it was working that it was costing them for 400500 million a day,

17:13 the Iranians the longer.

17:14 But how much has it all been costing the global economy?

17:17 Sure.

17:17 But if you ask Trump says absolutely and time became the weapon.

17:21 So I think that what happened here was that many people said, "Well,

17:24 who can hold out the longest?" And Trump said gas prices will go up a bit.

17:29 They're not up as high as people thought they would be.

17:31 He said people said $300.

17:33 He said they're around $100.

17:35 He said we can cope with that for a short while.

17:37 And every so often he tries to manipulate them with different statements.

17:40 That might be what he's doing now because

17:42 the idea that he's capitulated to the regime

17:44 to the barbarians of the Islamic Republic regime

17:47 now after all of this is almost unthinkable.

17:50 And the reason I But is it not also a possibility that Donald

17:53 Trump who's always trusted his gut instinct that he

17:57 has realized that politically and economically this is

18:01 turning into a disaster because he's got the midterm

18:04 elections coming within six months that they've already

18:07 predicted Republicans to lose the House in that which

18:10 is normal actually for an incumbent president but they

18:13 now are highly likely to lose the Senate.

18:15 He becomes a lame duck president.

18:17 his nightmare to have two years probably of facing new impeachments and so

18:20 on and he's scrabbling as he has been it seems to me from day

18:24 one of this war scrabbling for a way to declare victory and now

18:29 he's I think scrabbling for a way to get out of this where

18:32 it doesn't look like he's capitulated as you put it well I think

18:36 that if he does capitulate and if this isn't another moment of Trump

18:39 calling people's bluff or lying or trying to regain an element of surprise

18:44 because he has no element of surprise if he's planning to engage militarily.

18:47 It's not a surprise.

18:48 All he can do is make a tactical surprise

18:50 as he did last time by start negotiations and then act.

18:54 But what I'm saying is I don't think he gets out of it

18:56 in your version of of this because what does it look like?

18:58 It looks like the Iranian regime beat Donald Trump Pakistan.

19:03 And and so I don't think Trump is a stupid man.

19:05 I think Trump knows that.

19:06 I don't think it helps him domestically either.

19:09 They'll say he took us to war with this huge

19:10 expenditure and all this effort and then he capitulated.

19:13 And I don't think it helps Iran.

19:15 certainly doesn't help the Iranians who want to get rid of the regime.

19:18 Uh it destroys the credibility of the United States in the whole Gulf region.

19:22 The Gulf partners don't want him to back down now and allow

19:25 No, but it may be he's calculating that he's got to do something.

19:29 And I hope he isn't.

19:30 I hope that this is another Trump bluff and and you'll know Trump from your days

19:33 when you were in his entertainment world and he is an entertainer as well.

19:36 He's a guy that understands TV.

19:38 He understands the news cycle and that's been my problem with this.

19:41 How to distract us.

19:42 That's, you know, in a way, in a way,

19:44 I think he's treated the whole thing a bit like a reality TV show.

19:47 For sure.

19:47 I think and I don't think I don't think it's been

19:49 helpful that he every day has been out there

19:52 with a new episode dropping with constant flip-flopping of both

19:57 the the mission goals and what he's going to do.

20:01 One minute we're told he's going to annihilate the whole of Iran,

20:04 90 million people, right?

20:06 It's all going to happen tomorrow morning.

20:08 and then the next thing he's he's doing a deal or this or that.

20:12 I just think eventually you you fall into the boy

20:14 that cried wolf territory or the emperor with no clothes.

20:17 I think the interesting thing about that and and I you know I

20:19 completely understand your position on that and and all of us I think watch

20:22 Trump geopolitics and Trump diplomacy a gasp

20:25 because nobody's done it this way before

20:27 but maybe you get the US presidents that your time deserves and calls for.

20:31 I don't know.

20:32 I'm just saying that because that is his technique.

20:34 We never know when he says I have a one-page deal.

20:37 It could all be over tomorrow or by the time I go to China.

20:39 I don't Well, I don't know if we can believe him and I don't know if we

20:42 can't and whether or not it's a good thing that he operates that way or not.

20:45 All I

20:46 think I think in this world

20:47 if he if he does if he does carry out

20:48 50% of his threats on X or Truth Social and not

20:52 the other 50% the only benefit of that strategy is nobody

20:55 ally or adversary knows ever if this one this time is real.

20:59 Well, that's that's the boy that cry wolf problem.

21:01 Um Colonel Steel, great to see you looking a fine fettle if I may say so.

21:05 Thank you.

21:06 and I'm very envious of your jacket.

21:08 Um, militarily first, if Trump wants to prevent and have it be seen

21:16 to be that he's prevented Iran from developing a nuclear weapon,

21:20 then he has to, it seems to me,

21:23 get either Iran to provably destroy their enriched uranium

21:27 or to get in there and get it himself with US forces,

21:31 which would mean a substantial ground invasion.

21:34 Am I missing something or is that the only way that this can actually represent

21:39 stopping them?

21:41 Two options.

21:42 They the Iranian regime voluntarily get rid gets

21:47 rid of its nuclear intentions and proves it.

21:51 Or if you really want to get rid

21:54 of that, you've got to do some sort of invasion.

21:57 Now invasion, people think Iran's a huge country.

22:02 What do you invade?

22:03 I mean you it's there be no idea where this uranium is.

22:06 Yeah.

22:06 Quite.

22:07 So um I personally agree to start with the aims were not clear.

22:14 Uh I hoped that a bash on the nose at the start

22:19 of the war would would actually bring everyone out on the streets again

22:25 and actually topple the regime.

22:27 But frankly they're terrified.

22:29 The Iranian people are terrified because as soon

22:32 as they put their head above the parapit,

22:35 the revolutionary guard will murder them.

22:38 But they're terrified because the IRGC remains in firm control.

22:41 Exactly.

22:42 So all these claims that they've been destroyed

22:44 and wiped out and the leaders have all gone.

22:47 None of that can actually be true.

22:48 If the people on the ground, 90 million of them, if none of them are coming out,

22:53 it means they must be seeing with their own eyes

22:56 in the streets evidence that the IRGC remains in tight control.

23:01 And it does.

23:01 Otherwise, they'd be doing it.

23:02 And it does.

23:03 And that's the problem.

23:05 I mean, how do you get rid of the IRGC?

23:08 That is

23:09 250,000 heavily armed, very well-trained, ruthless revolutionary guards

23:14 who benefit from the present regime, of course.

23:17 And that's that's the problem.

23:18 These people benefit from keeping the ayatollas in in charge.

23:23 And actually that is the problem.

23:26 So what would you do if you're Trump now?

23:28 Well, I know if he has quietly thought to himself, I've got to get out of this.

23:32 And I think he should, even if it means he has to, you know,

23:35 eat crow and just take a hit on it.

23:38 I think the longer term damage of not doing that now is incalculable.

23:42 So if you're Trump, what do you do?

23:44 Well, he's going to he's actually going

23:46 to try and get out of the whole situation.

23:48 Yeah, that's what he's going to do.

23:50 I mean, you could see it beginning to occur.

23:53 I mean, the fact of the matter is they want to have the straight of homes open.

23:58 That's key now.

23:59 But it was open before the war.

24:02 It was open.

24:03 Um, and we want to go back.

24:05 The whole situation is quite absurd.

24:09 It has gone wrong for the United States big time.

24:13 And um I think Trump now wants to to get out of the situation.

24:18 If he can call it victory,

24:21 he will he will call it victory regardless of whether it is or not.

24:26 But actually the situation will not be resolved

24:29 and the situation will remain as as it is now.

24:32 the Iranian uh government will remain in power and the poor people of Iran,

24:38 the long-suffering poor people of Iran will

24:41 continue to be absolutely dominated by the IRGC.

24:45 Now, that's what's likely to happen.

24:47 Yeah.

24:48 And uh I cannot see the idea of invading a country like Iran is militarily mad.

24:54 But I think also never mind militarily politically disastrous for Trump.

24:58 Yeah, if you suddenly had a load of Marines getting killed, right,

25:02 and they didn't get their hands on the enriched uranium, it's over.

25:06 I mean, I said at the start of this, Scott,

25:08 I thought this was the biggest risk I've ever seen Donald Trump take.

25:12 Interest I always thought, interestingly, his foreign policy,

25:14 certainly compared to people like George Bush and others,

25:17 was actually reasonably measured.

25:19 I mean, Trump was a guy that believed in taking

25:22 out Sulmani and then getting out of there, right?

25:24 Maduro was a classic Trump foreign policy move.

25:26 People may not agree with it but actually as a military operation

25:31 in and out snatch the leader put a more malient number two

25:35 in place and maybe you can you know it's fine there's no

25:38 sort of casualty list this one from the moment he did it

25:41 I was like wow this is you're staking everything here and I

25:46 still believe that and I think I I sense knowing him very

25:50 well that he's now wrestling with the a massive dilemma how do

25:54 I get out of this without losing faith and without America losing face, right?

25:59 Well, yes.

26:00 First of all, um, as Mr.

26:03 Bolton said, they've always known what

26:06 the potential consequences of this could be.

26:08 I thought that was interesting.

26:10 Yeah.

26:09 Because any attempt by any of them to try and say,

26:12 well, we didn't realize they might.

26:14 Bolton was saying they had the open conversations about it.

26:17 I found an article that I wrote in August

26:18 of 2005 for anti-war.com saying that this is what could happen.

26:23 Iran can close the whole gate.

26:25 the straight of horror moves out of interest.

26:27 Why have they never done it before?

26:29 Because we hadn't attacked them.

26:30 No, but why wouldn't they have done it as a strategic thing to cause economics?

26:35 Well, that would have provoked the war that they

26:36 were trying to avoid this whole time, too.

26:38 And you know, the Bush administration, everybody but W.

26:42 Bush, including John Bolton, pushed him very hard to do this.

26:46 And it was the military that talked him out of it.

26:48 In January 2007, the chiefs told W.

26:50 Bush, "We don't want to do this.

26:52 We'll triple that the Iraq war, but we don't want to go to Iran.

26:55 And the reason why is because they can hit back in ways that we can't control.

26:59 We don't want to fight anyone unless we

27:00 know we control every single stage of the What do you think on the Gulf States?

27:04 I've had lots of different views about this.

27:06 I spent a lot of time in the Middle East

27:08 in the last two years in in Saudi, in Qatar, in UAE.

27:12 Uh it's been a very vibrant, dynamic place to be.

27:16 They've been pouring money into a new business model of opening up tourism,

27:21 sport, sunshine, safety,

27:24 and it's all designed to replace the dwindling oil supplies.

27:28 And now you see their worst nightmare unfurling as a region.

27:33 uh because actually it's it's what Iran has done uh you know

27:37 from a tactical point of view

27:39 pretty skillfully is they've targeted the vulnerable

27:42 spot of the whole region which is if you can stop people going

27:46 there you're you're wrecking their business

27:48 model going forward that applies huge pressure

27:51 well and they've completely called America's conventional military

27:54 what do you think the Gulf States are really thinking about Trump

27:57 and and America in this are they as some people argue it's drawn them closer

28:02 to America because of what Iran has done to them or do you

28:05 think that they're blaming America for the whole

28:07 mess unfurling in the first place?

28:09 Well, I don't know about the the blame.

28:10 I mean, I could see, you know,

28:12 part of the motive for them to want to get closer.

28:15 But then again, our bluff has been called.

28:17 They've the Iranians have just proven uh due to Trump's

28:21 unforced error here that America's conventional dominance of the Gulf,

28:25 it was always a bluff.

28:27 They closed down all of our bases.

28:29 Um they kicked us out of the region

28:30 and you know our our aircraft carrier our our star

28:34 destroyers are now parked in orbit way off

28:36 hundreds of miles away in the Arabian Sea.

28:38 Can't even get anywhere near it.

28:39 Have to fire their missiles from standoff ranges.

28:41 So it seems to me like every especially

28:44 all those smaller states they're probably going to have

28:47 to take a stance closer to cutters where they

28:49 split the difference and try to get along with Iran.

28:52 Now as Justin Logan said,

28:53 what good is a military base if you can't fight a war from it?

28:56 So America's entire conventional posture in the region is over now.

29:00 I think

29:01 Jonathan, you're shaking your head.

29:02 Well, I think what you said about the Gulf States is important because I think

29:07 I don't actually know the answer.

29:08 I've not spoken to many.

29:09 I don't think anyone knows.

29:10 No,

29:11 I think the UAE and Saudi Arabia may be very much against capitulation,

29:15 but you might find that Qatar and Oman are less averse to it.

29:19 But that's one element of it.

29:21 I would say that one thing we haven't

29:22 discussed because it seems unlikely is that actually

29:25 this so-called deal that Trump maybe is striking

29:28 actually gets a lot of what he wanted.

29:30 There there was an interview that he did

29:31 on PBS over the phone where he was asked

29:35 that there was a rumor that the nuclear material

29:38 will be transferred out of Iran, maybe to the US.

29:41 He said not maybe to the US, definitely to the US.

29:43 Now, if that's part of an agreement that the Iranians will transfer it,

29:46 that avoids your scenario of troops on the ground.

29:48 But I will say this that any deal made with the Iranian regime is a bad deal

29:52 because to make a deal with the barbarians

29:54 of the Islamic Republic of Iran uh to make

29:57 any deal with them when their technique has

29:58 always been to use negotiations to drag things

30:01 on as long as possible to wear people out to use time to their favor rather than

30:06 and they've done that even without the the knowledge now.

30:08 They have this tremendous leverage of what they can do with the straight of

30:11 that's what I mean with the straight of moves.

30:12 This is what's so perplexing about what Trump is doing now because there

30:16 is no reason not to have carried on what he had just started.

30:19 Absolutely.

30:20 He can strangle their economy just cost to do so.

30:26 What is what is the evidence that they cannot bear

30:28 the economic pain of having the the blockade on the street?

30:33 The exchange rate is now way worse than

30:35 it was when the uprising started because it was okay.

30:38 America supported Saddam Hussein in a brutal war

30:41 against him for eight years and they was able

30:43 to say there is a fair amount of evidence

30:45 which is that they can't really afford to do anything.

30:47 They are now having to subsidize things in the lives

30:49 of their nation who they don't really care about their citizens that much.

30:52 Uh there is a lot of evidence that if you carry on strangling them

30:55 their hopeful pivot towards China has not really

30:58 worked out the way they'd hoped economically either.

31:00 There is an enormous amount of pressure on the Islamic Republic regime.

31:04 Certainly they can withstand a lot of that pressure because they are ruthless,

31:07 horrible people who will let their own population suffer.

31:10 But eventually what Trump was doing was

31:12 a nonviolent method of continuing this war.

31:14 He had moved out of the kinetic stage of air strikes

31:18 and and all that we saw there into this stage of playing them

31:21 at their own game with the straight of Hormuz and trying to open

31:24 it up to relief release the pressure on the rest of the world.

31:27 not doing too well on that yet, but starting and also managing to choke them off

31:32 to suffocate them to gradually economically the problem here.

31:35 That's why you should carry on.

31:37 Well, hang on, hang on one sec.

31:38 You're you're a very pro-Israeli commentator.

31:41 You'd accept that.

31:42 I think I'm a fair commenter.

31:44 Okay.

31:44 I mean, how how in all your columns you've written for the spectator,

31:47 how many have been critical of Israel?

31:49 I often have criticisms of Israel.

31:50 Oh, it's a headline on the column.

31:51 I don't write the headlines.

31:52 Have you ever had a critical headline on one of your columns about Israel

31:55 from the subs?

31:55 I'd have to go back and check.

31:56 I can tell you.

31:57 I checked.

31:57 Okay.

31:57 Have I?

31:58 You haven't.

31:59 Okay.

31:59 So, you've never had written a column as

32:00 I did once actually.

32:01 I think I wrote one about um something.

32:03 It's pre-occtober 7th about Okay.

32:05 I I only check forest issue in the West Bank or something.

32:08 I only checked since October 7th.

32:09 But you would accept that you're a partisan commentator.

32:12 I don't think I'm partisan.

32:13 No.

32:13 But you've never written a column that's been critical of Israel.

32:16 Plenty of my columns have criticisms of Israeli policy in them.

32:18 But not in the last three years.

32:20 No.

32:20 No.

32:20 Within the last three years.

32:21 Go and read them.

32:22 What was the

32:23 Did you read them or did Chhat GPT read them or did your researchers read them?

32:25 I went and checked everyone.

32:27 You read them all.

32:28 I checked every headline of every column headines.

32:31 I didn't write the headlines.

32:32 That your own head.

32:33 I don't know why you're you're complaining

32:34 about being perceived as a pro-Israeli government.

32:37 Many of the things I say do defend positions of Israel

32:39 because I think Israel there's a reason this war has been No,

32:42 I get there's a reason you

32:42 No, the reason I'm asking is you didn't ask me if I if I have sympathy

32:46 for Israel's actions during the last two years of this war.

32:48 You ask me if I consider myself a partisan or or or somehow

32:52 I think your words in your spectator column about me slavishly pro pro-Israel.

32:56 I'm not slavishly anything.

32:57 I look at the facts and I look at what I see is going on in the region.

33:00 I try to analyze it from a perspective which does very

33:02 often come down in this scenario in favor of the Israeli actions.

33:06 It doesn't mean I'm slavishly or or um no I I resent that.

33:10 And I think you know afterwards let's talk about it.

33:12 I'll find you the criticisms I've put in some.

33:14 You know what the great thing is in the digital

33:16 era people can tap in your name the spectator

33:18 website they can check every column and they can see

33:20 if any of them have a headlines clicking a visual

33:22 I don't like the headlines peers

33:24 maybe that's the theme of the column

33:26 well sometimes I don't like the headlines they give me

33:28 here's the here's why I'm asking the question there's

33:30 no point disputing this much longer but I'm not trying

33:34 to pay gotchas the reason I'm asking is that there

33:37 is a belief that Israel's operating on a different

33:41 side to this whole thing that they don't care if there's total chaos in Iran.

33:45 They've got a much wider bigger picture that they're going after here.

33:49 And that actually if Trump does look like he's reigning back too

33:53 much here and that the Iranian regime may stay intact and may

33:56 have the enrich uranium and so on that Netanyahu just won't accept

33:59 it and that he that Israel could actually unilaterally go and attack again.

34:04 Do you think that's likely?

34:05 Well, I do think you're absolutely right and um that Israel and America

34:09 don't have entirely the same aims in this war and they never did,

34:14 but they had a huge amount of overlap and I think

34:16 that's why it came together that this happened as a joint action.

34:20 Uh so from Israel's perspective,

34:22 which you know I do write a lot about Israel and I am very sympathetic

34:24 to many of the actions Israel takes

34:26 and has taken especially during this war period.

34:28 Um from Israel's perspective,

34:30 it's interesting to consider what this will mean if Trump capitulates now.

34:34 Will it be good for them or will it be bad for them?

34:36 In some respects, if you think about October the 7th

34:40 and pre-occtober the 7th and the end of the war,

34:42 if we drew a line here, they are net up on that.

34:46 If they were below zero on some kind of numerical scale uh on October the 7th

34:51 when that horror happened uh on the 28th

34:54 of October when that war started in Gaza,

34:57 uh they increased massively in that scale.

34:59 Then with Lebanon and Hezbollah, uh,

35:01 with the 12-day war in Iran, they will have increased more.

35:03 If he capitulates now, it will come down slightly.

35:06 So they might have gone up to a 70 and now they'll come down to a 60 or 50.

35:10 They're still up 50 from zero when they were below zero.

35:13 But I do think that what it has done in some respects, whilst not conclusively,

35:17 it has demolished a lot of the capability

35:19 of the Shia access that Iran leads in the region.

35:22 The problem is it hasn't got rid of it,

35:24 but it has stopped Syria being a corridor

35:26 for Iran to funnel things towards Hezbollah.

35:28 They are currently trying to deal with Hezbollah but that's on pause because

35:31 of this ceasefire that the Americans

35:33 bring Colonel it's swings and roundabouts that's

35:36 Colonel Bob I mean there you know I saw

35:38 one report which said that in Gaza for example

35:41 because of the destruction of 70 80% of Gaza

35:45 because of the killing of 70 80,000 people there

35:48 some of whom obviously were Hamas we don't

35:50 know the exact split of of terrorists who civilians

35:55 but because of that I read one report from American

35:59 intelligence that for every Hamas terrorists who've been killed,

36:02 five more were now lining up with the same ideology

36:06 because they were so enraged by what Israel had done.

36:08 That's normal, Pierce.

36:09 is normal if you but but my my point being though how

36:12 big a problem is Israel potentially creating for itself

36:15 by the what many perceive to be and I

36:18 would be one of them now that the disproportionate response

36:22 to what happened on October the 7th just in terms of what they did to Gaza

36:26 that actually if you look at I mean

36:27 for example I never thought I'd see a time when

36:29 the majority of Americans had an anti-Israeli perspective

36:34 in the polling I didn't think that day would

36:36 come so clearly there's been a movement in public

36:39 sentence globally about what the Israeli government's been doing.

36:42 And I look to be crystal clear, this is not aimed at Israeli people,

36:47 my criticism or Jewish people certainly it is

36:50 aimed specifically at this Israeli government that I

36:52 think is very hardline right driven by in cases

36:56 of Smodrich and Bengavir in particular absolute maniacs.

37:00 I mean, when when Bengavir's wife on his 50th birthday

37:05 last week gives him a birthday cake of a golden noose,

37:10 you're dealing with psychopathic mentality.

37:12 I'm sorry.

37:13 And Jonathan, you can respond to that in a moment,

37:15 but I I just feel like this has been part of the problem.

37:18 I'm not a spokesman.

37:18 It's I have to no sure.

37:23 Israel has two objectives.

37:24 One, get rid of the nuclear threat.

37:28 Two, bring down the regime.

37:30 Make the place safe.

37:32 Make the Middle East safe.

37:34 That's understandable.

37:36 The United States had one objective to start with, definitely

37:41 take out the nuclear facilities and a more fuzzy one.

37:46 When they did that, as they attacked, perhaps the regime would fall.

37:51 Yeah.

37:51 We're now going to get to the situation where Trump may well

37:57 maintain he's neutralized the nuclear situation and he can't change the regime

38:03 and he's actually going to draw stumps and say actually we've won

38:07 this war when he hasn't because all he will have done is delayed.

38:12 Just for my American viewers, draw stumps is a cricket phrase.

38:16 Yeah.

38:16 Which means you basically end the game.

38:18 Exactly.

38:19 Yes.

38:20 May I jump in?

38:21 Um just say I think that Israel actually um

38:24 if has un undeniably come out of this war

38:28 though it may not have gone how they wanted or how the US wanted or to plan.

38:32 There is no denying that its reputation

38:34 has altered but it's altered in both directions.

38:36 So some of the Gulf states and many

38:38 of the states in the Middle East now see Israel's

38:40 deterrence as massively renewed after the day in which

38:43 its deterrence was seen as massively compromised, October the 7th.

38:46 Uh and now if it's got this renewed deterrence,

38:48 if it has managed to do so much in that two

38:50 years from the low point of October the 7th, if it also managed to do it in such

38:54 tight collaboration and operational partnership with the US,

38:57 albeit under this particular president,

39:00 it has shown itself to be an extremely strong ally.

39:02 It even gave an Iron Dome battery uh to one

39:05 of its Arab neighbors to use during the Iranian attacks on them.

39:08 And those countries have seen as well that Iran

39:11 will not hold back from attacking them and their people.

39:14 And that is something that has taught them a lesson

39:16 about who their real allies are in the region.

39:18 So I think Israel's reputation may be bad among some

39:20 campuses in the west and even some western and European parliaments.

39:24 But if you look at the region that it exists in many

39:26 of the people in the region have understood that country as renewed in strength,

39:31 renewed in alliance, a valuable partner to have.

39:34 And I think that Europe as it's getting weaker

39:35 and weaker you know Mertz said that this has humiliated Trump.

39:38 Uh Mertz would like Trump to capitulate though he won't say so because

39:42 it will prove that Europe was right not to get involved because if

39:45 America can't do this what could depleted Europe have done but the point

39:49 is Europe is depleted sadly and that means that Israel is far more

39:52 concerned with how its neighbors see it far more concerned with how

39:55 the US and the US administration see it than how Mertz and Europe sees

39:59 it and this is a problem for Israel but also it is

40:02 in a stronger position than it was on October the 7th without any doubt.

40:05 Scott, could it be that Israel is more unpopular

40:09 in the way that Jonathan articulated in those areas,

40:12 but that actually is stronger as a result of all its actions,

40:16 even if people don't agree with what they did?

40:18 Yeah.

40:18 There's a document from back in the 80s where they say, you know,

40:20 all our support for Iran and the Iran Iraq war,

40:23 it could backfire and Iran could conquer Baghdad, which they didn't want that.

40:27 They just wanted the war to continue.

40:29 Then they said, "You know, if that happens, that's okay, though,

40:31 because that'll just help drive all the Sunni kings closer

40:33 to us because of their fear of the Shiites." So, um,

40:37 the fact that, and I'm sure you saw the Wet story the other day about how

40:40 the military and intelligence officials in Israel considered

40:44 this war to be an absolute and complete unmitigated disaster.

40:48 They didn't get the regime change.

40:49 They did not destroy the nuclear material.

40:52 They did not end Iran's alliance with Hezbala,

40:56 the Iraqi PMUs or the uh Ansar Allah in Yemen or any other thing.

41:01 They've accomplished absolutely none of their goals

41:03 and instead they've proved that America's

41:06 conventional footprint in the military east is

41:08 in the Middle East is completely obsolete.

41:11 So um and then as so yes I'm sure all the people in the region

41:15 are upset although the the kings and sultans

41:18 and amirs and potentates and monarchs and elp

41:21 presidentes of the of the GCC may have been driven closer to Israel in a way

41:26 but I want to talk about American public opinion uh that you cited there.

41:30 We have propagandized so heavily in the United

41:32 States of America that the only reason anyone would

41:35 ever criticize Israel is just because they hate

41:38 Jews and want to kill them all or something.

41:40 And for people to have gone from believing that to where

41:45 they are now is due solely to two things.

41:48 Israel's slaughter in the Gaza Strip unremitting cruelty which

41:52 we all can see them deliberately killing children etc.

41:56 and then dragging us into another no- win war in the Middle East.

42:00 Just like with W.

42:01 Bush, Netanyahu and his men promised it'll be easy.

42:04 We'll just tell them that they're making nuclear weapons.

42:07 We'll go in there, we'll get a regime change, and everything will be fine.

42:10 And you know, last time in in uh Iraq, word,

42:13 they put Iran's best friends in power from Dawa and the Supreme Islamic Council.

42:17 They still rule Iraq to this day.

42:19 They tried to support the bin Laden against Assad in Syria,

42:23 which ended up driving Assad closer to Iran for 15 years.

42:26 Although they did finally get their victory when

42:28 Al Qaeda seized Damascus at the end of 2024.

42:33 Um, and so Israel is definitely stronger there for having uh,

42:38 you know, helped al Qaeda.

42:39 And Netanyahu bragged about it, by the way, that he helped al Qaeda.

42:41 So did Joe Biden helped Al Qaeda seize Damascus.

42:44 So that weakens Iran's ability to arm Hezbala.

42:48 But then again, they thought that Hezbollah had

42:51 been severely weakened by the killing of their leader,

42:54 by the pager attack and the air strikes.

42:56 And then when the current war broke out

42:58 and Hezbala jumped in, all the Israeli intelligence officials said,

43:02 "Oh my god, they're much more powerful than we thought.

43:05 They they had survived in a much stronger capacity than we thought

43:08 before." So now we're now we're right where John Bolton left off.

43:12 None of this is going to work, Pierce,

43:13 unless we drop an Hbomb on Tyrron or we send in the entire,

43:18 you know, conscript 10 million men and Persia and take over the place.

43:22 You've actually just touched on what I was going to ask Jonathan.

43:25 One of the interesting aspects of all this is

43:27 that I've asked repeatedly Israeli guests, pro-Israeli guests,

43:32 why is it that as we talk about Iran not being allowed to have a nuclear weapon,

43:39 why is it that Israel is consistently allowed and given a pass

43:45 to never say whether it has a nuclear weapon or not?

43:48 You know, I interviewed uh uh an American commentator on a show

43:53 yesterday and he said that Israel obviously has 170 nuclear weapons.

43:59 Everybody knows that.

44:00 I see.

44:00 But they've never admitted it.

44:01 I know the answer to that question.

44:03 I saw the um it's illegal for America to give aid to Israel if they're

44:07 a nuclear weapons state that has not signed the non-prololiferation treaty.

44:11 So they lie and they give the strategic ambiguity.

44:14 Pretend they don't know that Israel is a nuclear weapon state.

44:17 that way.

44:18 Conspiracy nothing.

44:19 It's the Glenn Simington law.

44:22 It says it's illegal to give them aid if they're a non

44:25 if they're a nuclear weapon state that does not sign the NPT.

44:27 Is that is that right, John?

44:29 So, my answer to the question would be that Israel's

44:31 policy of nuclear ambiguity is what it's usually referred to.

44:34 And you're quite right that most of the world

44:36 assumes slash knows about Israel's uh nuclear bombs.

44:41 um has been I think it was Shimon Perez who introduced

44:43 the phrase Israel will never introduce nuclear weapons into the region.

44:47 It was this weird phrase that meant to say well we're not

44:50 going to say we've got them that will be to introduce them.

44:52 Um the reason for it you're right because it's one of those sticky

44:55 things that you might wonder why should Israel have them and not Iran.

44:58 Uh but basically the obvious the answer is kind of obvious.

45:01 It's what it sounds like because Israel got the nuclear weapons to protect

45:04 itself from basically a region which in every direction wanted to annihilate

45:09 it since it was born or reborn in 1948 and has never used

45:14 those weapons to threaten the annihilation

45:15 of another country as Iran frequently does.

45:18 For example, the Islamic Republic of Iran does to Israel.

45:20 They have a countdown.

45:22 They even threaten Western countries.

45:24 Why should Iran should Iran have shouldn't have nuclear weapons?

45:28 But just to be clear, why should Iran have to be

45:31 completely transparent about its own nuclear aspirations?

45:34 Because it is a regime which wishes to kill us.

45:37 Okay, that's your opinion.

45:38 It's their opinion.

45:39 They say it to America to Israel, the great Satan,

45:43 the little Satan, but there are other countries.

45:45 But if you go to Russia or China or North Korea,

45:48 vast sways of the world don't agree with you.

45:50 Right.

45:50 So the point being these What do you mean they don't agree that those are facts

45:53 that Iran says death to Israel and death to America has launched?

45:57 I mean they are supportive of the regime that you detest.

46:00 Right.

46:01 So my my point being that there are globally hang on hang this is your opinion.

46:06 Okay that's fine.

46:07 That's what I'm saying.

46:07 That's fine.

46:07 I'm saying uncensored.

46:09 Of course of course.

46:10 Oh no no no.

46:11 Of course.

46:11 Well my point being a lot of the world has a different opinion about Iran.

46:14 Sure they do.

46:15 Right.

46:16 So my point is the point of my question.

46:18 No but the point of my question why should we

46:21 be compelling Iran to be transparent about what it has.

46:25 They have a nuclear weapon.

46:27 But why is Israel not compelled to be Israel?

46:29 Because because Iran signed the NPT and Israel didn't.

46:32 That's why Iran is actually Iran is that's correct.

46:36 Iran is obligated and is not it.

46:40 Would it not be a powerful thing for for Israel

46:42 to say in full transparency we have 170 nukes?

46:47 Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't.

46:48 Um how do you claim to be

46:49 a transparent democracy when I'm saying remotely transparent?

46:53 I personally have not seen the nuclear weapons of Israel

46:56 and I personally is not something that I have personal proof of.

46:59 Okay.

47:00 I mean, do you think they have them?

47:01 Well, yes, that seems to be the the received opinion.

47:03 However, if it were some giant bluff, then, you know,

47:06 it would be an magnificent one they've pulled off.

47:08 That's not what I'm suggesting.

47:09 I'm telling you that the difference between the two states,

47:11 why should Iran be transparent or stopped when they're not being transparent?

47:14 It's be it's because they are a threat to the West.

47:17 They are a threat to civilization.

47:19 Israel is not Israel has threatened to nuke

47:22 London and Paris and Berlin and Rome.

47:26 It's called the Samson option.

47:28 They said if the western democracy You say you're not a crackpot conspiracy.

47:31 There's a book by Seymour Hirs called the Samson option.

47:35 Israel wants to nuke the West.

47:37 I I didn't say they want to.

47:38 I said they have threatened that if the western states

47:42 abandon Israel to be overrun that they'll nuke us, too.

47:45 And I'm not saying that's always been the permanent doctrine,

47:48 but it's called the Samson option,

47:49 and it was their doctrine, at least in the 1970s.

47:52 There's a book about it by Seymour.

47:53 You can pretend like you've never heard of such a thing,

47:55 but everyone else watching this can just Google

47:57 up the Samson option and read it for themselves.

48:00 There is no serious.

48:01 That's the second time you tried to say conspiracy to me as though

48:04 that debunks anything from the state of Israel

48:06 to the West of having nuclear weapons.

48:08 That's been proven by the fact that it has never used them.

48:11 It's never threatened to use them.

48:12 It's not threatening the annihilation of any other country.

48:15 At most, what it does is uses its military strength shielded

48:19 by a nuclear umbrella to fight back people who try to eradicate Israel,

48:24 who try to eradicate the Jewish people, who have a genocidal intent,

48:28 who have united Shia militias in the entire region.

48:32 Israel, who have attacked Americans for over 40 years,

48:35 who have attacked Europeans,

48:37 who bombed during this war a British base, who tried to bomb Diego Garcia.

48:41 This is a regime which cannot be allowed to have nuclear

48:44 weapons and there is no such similar started this point of information.

48:50 Let me bring in Colonel Bob.

48:51 The the constant refrain we hear from the IDF or people talking

48:56 about the IDF is they are the most moral army in the world.

48:59 You were a colonel in the British army as my brother was.

49:03 Um is the IDF from everything we've seen in the last

49:06 few years the most moral army in the world?

49:10 No.

49:11 I don't suppose any army is the most moral.

49:13 There are always people that do things wrong.

49:16 It tries to be like all armies do.

49:19 It tries to be, but sometimes because

49:22 human beings are involved, they get it wrong.

49:25 That's not true.

49:26 They deliberately target women and children.

49:28 Um, sorry, I'm I don't believe that.

49:31 I've got a number of friends in the IDF

49:34 who actually are appalled if that was the case.

49:37 I don't think I don't agree with you.

49:38 I think a lot of them keep blowing their brains

49:40 out because of the orders that they were made to follow.

49:43 Could it be could it be that actually the reality is

49:47 that they have used and they've doomed the same with Hezbollah in Lebanon?

49:51 I think that is the Israeli government has used the fact

49:55 that undoubtedly Hamas and Hezbollah embed themselves in civilian areas.

50:01 Yeah.

50:01 and that they have used that as the excuse to go and just obliterate

50:06 these areas knowing full knowing that in the process

50:10 a lot of civilians get killed,

50:12 women, children who have nothing to do with this and that it's

50:15 it's an it's a sort of umbrella excuse.

50:17 In other words, they could say,

50:19 "We don't deliberately target the women and children," but they know

50:23 for a fact that if they blow up that whole I mean,

50:26 some of the some of the scenes I've

50:27 seen from Lebanon recently are very reminiscent of Gaza,

50:31 which just obliteration has been the order of the day,

50:34 they know this most moral army in the world that when they attack in that way,

50:39 a lot of civilians are going to get killed.

50:41 So they can say we're not deliberately targeting the civilians,

50:44 but they also know a lot of civilians are going to die.

50:47 Now the argument back at that, Bob is World War II,

50:52 Dresden, you know, the the nuclear bomb,

50:54 the Geneva Conventions were all written after all that all that.

50:58 And that's the argument I've put forward,

50:59 which is that's why we set up Geneva Conventions.

51:02 But as an army man, what do you feel about about that?

51:05 Well, when I was in parliament, and that was nearly two years ago,

51:08 I stopped being a member of parliament.

51:09 I used I would make speeches and my view was that after

51:14 October 7th actually Israel should not invade Gaza but should use

51:20 its special forces and lightning pinpoint raids with a target that can

51:26 be identified to avoid civilian casualties by putting mass troops into Gaza.

51:34 inevitably things like you've just portrayed will

51:37 happen and innocence will die more than necessary.

51:42 It's always you can't actually unleash the sword as it were and expect everyone.

51:47 Is it morally defensible to target uh civilian areas where you know

51:54 or you believe or you suspect terrorists are are living and operating?

51:58 Is that morally defensible?

52:00 No.

52:00 Because the Geneva Convention say to soldiers like myself,

52:04 you should not unleash weapons if there is a chance that civilians

52:09 So, Jonathan, why does the IDF just ride rough shot over that?

52:12 Well, my understanding of of how the IDF from from the people I speak to there,

52:16 how how it's operated, for example, in Lebanon for an awfully long time,

52:20 they didn't go into Lebanon on a grand operation

52:23 or or do the damage they've just done now.

52:25 But after Hezbollah joined in uh on October the 7th

52:29 or 8th whenever it was uh and and Israel

52:31 evacuated like huge swades of the north of Israel

52:34 to create a buffer so that its population

52:36 would be protected and indeed that population has been

52:39 under threat for some time um with the unif

52:42 forces the UN peacekeeping forces uh not keeping peace

52:45 in the south of Lebanon below the Latani River.

52:47 So though Israel did tolerate that for an extraordinary amount of time

52:50 while its people were under fire for many years which was

52:52 very under reportported in the west um they did then eventually

52:56 after October the 7th I believe make a different calculation which is

52:59 to say with warnings to evacuate civilians and attempt to do

53:03 those sorts of things which you're right don't always work and you

53:06 end up often with civilian death counts which will you know be

53:09 hideous for people to see but I think they made the evaluation

53:12 that tiny country same with the Gaza Strip which they now

53:15 hold 50% of in this weird stalemate going back and I think

53:19 just just to finish that just to say I think they've decided

53:22 the buffer zone should no longer be inside Israel it should be

53:25 inside the enemies that are threatening Israel and so I do think

53:27 they made you're right and it's up up to anyone to decide

53:30 whether they agree with it or not I think most moral

53:32 army in the world is a useless phrase that we should all

53:34 but also you know my big problem they

53:37 believe the buffer should be within Lebanon or within

53:39 my my big problem actually with the claims made

53:42 about for example what the IDF has done in Gaza

53:44 is that to this day despite there being a supposed

53:47 ceasefire which seems to be constantly broken in some way.

53:51 But despite that, the international media are still

53:54 not allowed in to operate freely in Gaza

53:58 and they killed hundreds of reporters who were from there over 200.

54:01 But but but and they sort of framed all of them

54:03 as they were all linked to Hamas, which is fine.

54:06 If there are no international journalists on the ground to verify either way,

54:10 you can make any claim you like and it can't be challenged.

54:13 And I I've had people like Jonathan comriers

54:16 and others say he totally agrees with me.

54:18 That is completely wrong.

54:19 I mean, do you as a journalist agree?

54:20 Well, look, I I tried I asked many many times to go into the Gaza Strip.

54:23 Eventually, they let me in on an embed, but you're right.

54:25 That's it's very limited what you can see.

54:27 Again, I I understand why they made that decision.

54:30 It's less easy to understand it now.

54:32 There's the so-called

54:33 I think there's only reason there's only one reason they're doing it.

54:35 That's where you and I do.

54:36 They don't want people and I say that may be part of it.

54:40 I would agree, but I'm not sure that's the only reason.

54:43 But I think there is part of the reason.

54:44 I think also the other part of the reason is that they

54:47 believe that the war is still ongoing in a different status.

54:50 And it sort of is because both sides, as you said,

54:52 well, no, they shouldn't, but you're the one that said it.

54:54 Both sides are constantly.

54:55 I know a lot of guys who fought

54:56 in Iraq and Afghanistan who are absolutely outraged every

55:00 time they hear the Israelis pretend that they follow

55:03 the same battlefield procedures as our army guys do.

55:07 And I don't know all the exact numbers,

55:08 but it's like the most civilians that you can kill to get a medium

55:12 value target or a high value target is 10 or 20 something like that.

55:16 Obama's the last example is that's my point.

55:19 The US many people have drone strikes under Obama.

55:23 It's not true that there's a such

55:24 a massive distinction in the each army evaluates

55:27 the drone strikes are 50 lb hellfire missiles, okay?

55:30 Is what Obama was doing with the drone strikes.

55:32 He killed a lot of people in double tap strikes.

55:34 It's nothing like the 300 to1 type ratio that the Israelis adopted.

55:39 I know you you covered it when they bombed the tents.

55:42 They claim they're going after one guy and they bomb the tent city.

55:46 They killed 300 people claiming they're going after one

55:49 guy when they're not even going after one guy.

55:50 And then crucially, there's the Israeli journalistic outlet 972 MAG,

55:56 who did the groundbreaking reports on the use of artificial intelligence,

56:02 Lavender, and Daddy's Home.

56:04 And what the program Daddy's Home is,

56:07 it follows alleged uh Hamas fighters home and then kills

56:10 them in front of their families andor with their families.

56:14 Um, and Lavender, they talked all about in the the program Lavender,

56:17 they say, "We've identified all the Hamas targets.

56:20 we can find.

56:20 We killed them all already.

56:22 So now what do we do?

56:22 So what do they do?

56:24 They turn the dial on the AI to now figuratively to now include far more people.

56:30 Now it's just all fighting age males.

56:32 Now they're all Hamas and you don't even have IDF super,

56:36 you know, humans supervising this.

56:38 You just trust the computer program to pick

56:40 targets and go out there and kill people.

56:42 And I I do think I do think one

56:45 of the reasons that the reputation of Israel globally has

56:50 taken such a hit is because people can

56:53 see the scenes on the ground in the cruelty.

56:55 That's right.

56:56 And they can see the scenes in Lebanon

56:58 and they just think it's massively disproportionate.

57:01 It doesn't mean in my case, for example,

57:03 I spent many months being pillaried by the pro

57:06 Palestinian side for defending Israel's right to defend itself.

57:10 I fundamentally believe they had a right to defend themselves and aggressively.

57:13 Can we go back to what the colonel said about how easy it would be for the IDF,

57:17 Shinbet, massage to go in there and pin prick

57:20 and get these worse because by not doing that, you've massively invaded.

57:27 You killed a hell of a lot of people.

57:29 And going back to some point, a point you made earlier.

57:33 By doing that, kill your brother turns you into a terrorist.

57:38 I mean, the British army learned that in Northern Ireland,

57:42 you know, in the early '7s, and there are weird things, I've got to say,

57:45 we got to wrap this up a bit, but but there are weird things here,

57:49 which I think we'll find out more about over time, but how the MOSAD,

57:53 which is reputed to be the most brilliant intelligence agency in the world.

57:58 So intelligent that he can blow up 3,000 Hezbollah

58:02 terrorists in one moment with pages that they've infiltrated.

58:06 so intelligent that it can track the movements of the Ayatollah of Iran

58:09 with his people through traffic lights reportedly and so on and so on and so on.

58:14 how that agency appeared to have no idea that the billions of of dollars being

58:21 funneled into uh into Gaza were being

58:24 misused by uh Hamas to build this extraordinary

58:28 you supported an operation before October the 7th because they

58:31 did know if they knew would you have supported them

58:33 in a military far how did the Mosad not have

58:38 any comprehension that anything on October the 7th of that scale

58:42 there was Israeli intelligence had a lot

58:43 of knowledge of what was going on in Gaza,

58:45 but they thought that the misconception,

58:47 as I understand it, is that they believed that a the world

58:49 would not support them preemptively striking in the Gaza Strip.

58:53 So what happened on October the 7th was the pretext,

58:55 but b they also had this massive

58:56 preconception that nonviolent means would be better.

58:59 So a technological fence that it would never be possible to break through.

59:02 But the question I was going to ask Jonath How did how did

59:06 they not know that 3,000 Hamas terrorists were about to pour over the border?

59:11 Right.

59:11 But what?

59:12 So you think they they they were part of it?

59:14 No, not at all.

59:14 I don't I don't buy into that conspiracy.

59:16 I'm just saying there was a massive ball dropping here.

59:19 Huge.

59:20 And I don't I still can't get my head around.

59:23 This is on their on their doorstep.

59:25 It's easy.

59:25 It's easy.

59:26 Okay.

59:27 Net Netanyahu repeated this over and over again.

59:30 If you wish to thwart the creation of a Palestinian state,

59:34 you must support Hamas in the Gaz.

59:38 That's why I believe he was waiting divide

59:40 and rule control the height of the flame

59:42 and he denied saying that when he had three

59:45 sources said he said it to a Lood meeting,

59:47 but now we have him on tape saying it to there's no doubt.

59:50 There's no doubt.

59:51 But wait to answer question he was trying to play

59:53 divide and rule with the Palestinian Authority in a mass.

59:56 That's right.

59:56 That's right.

59:56 We we prevent a Palestinian state by keeping them divided and conquered.

1:00:00 But then he said, "We control the height

1:00:01 of a flame." Which means that yeah, they're dangerous.

1:00:05 They're just dangerous enough that we can tell the US Congress,

1:00:08 "Well, you don't expect us to negotiate with these terrorists, do you?

1:00:11 But don't worry, they won't break out of their pen and do anything." But then

1:00:14 that means that everyone down the chain

1:00:16 of command knew that that was Netanyahu's policy.

1:00:20 And so if anyone is reporting up the chain of command,

1:00:23 I see suspicious movements at the fence.

1:00:26 I see, you know, whatever dangerous things,

1:00:28 those warnings don't go all the way up to the prime

1:00:31 minister's office because lieutenant colonel

1:00:33 and colonel and captain and whoever,

1:00:36 they know that the boss doesn't want to hear that, right?

1:00:38 And so they don't pass.

1:00:40 None of it none of it really makes much sense.

1:00:42 And I hope we we get to the bottom of it.

1:00:44 Maybe if we let journalists into Gaza, we'll we'll get some way to finding out.

1:00:48 the the prediction markets poly market is asking

1:00:51 US and Iran permanent peace deal by $75 million

1:00:56 currently in this market May 15th 16% May 31st

1:01:00 29% June 30th 51% December 31st 73% Bob let me just very quickly I mean peace is

1:01:09 a very movable feast obviously but when do you think

1:01:12 we may see the end of this war officially

1:01:15 in terms of a declaration of it being over.

1:01:18 The answer is no one knows.

1:01:21 Yeah.

1:01:20 However, I hope within the next four weeks.

1:01:25 Okay.

1:01:24 I really hope within the next four weeks that there's some sort of deal.

1:01:28 Yeah.

1:01:28 Trump will have to accept that he has not achieved everything,

1:01:33 but he will declare it as a victory.

1:01:36 Iran will actually say they've won and that's it.

1:01:39 And you know what?

1:01:40 I'm I'm I'm comfortable with that if it's if it stops it.

1:01:43 Jonathan, when do you think?

1:01:44 Uh I I couldn't tell you when it will,

1:01:45 but if you build put those back or I'll have a look

1:01:47 when I should put my money on and see what I can do.

1:01:50 Hopefully people in the Trump administration aren't putting

1:01:52 money on it right now knowing quite often.

1:01:56 Yeah.

1:01:56 So maybe we should watch what they've done and that will give us a guide to

1:02:00 probably not a bad idea.

1:02:01 The truth what history should ask is

1:02:05 what solution will end up with the least number of people dead.

1:02:11 Yeah, that is actually what we've got to aim for.

1:02:15 And it's very difficult to say factor

1:02:17 in that calculation though um in the in the numbers

1:02:20 uh barbarian uh people who want to kill

1:02:24 everyone around them and people who want peace.

1:02:27 I would say that there is there is unfortunately a number of bad actors.

1:02:33 You know what guys I would love to carry

1:02:36 on I'd love to carry on a more extended debate.

1:02:38 We haven't got time.

1:02:39 Scott, quickly, when do you think we may see a deal?

1:02:42 I I really wish I could say Trump has

1:02:44 got himself in such a tough position here where, as you're indicating,

1:02:48 he can't quit without essentially admitting he lost or at least

1:02:51 just lying and calling it a victory in the most absurd way.

1:02:54 But I do encourage that.

1:02:55 And quite frankly, I think the best case scenario really would be

1:03:00 for America to just abandon our world

1:03:02 empire and our Middle Eastern Empire altogether.

1:03:05 Tell the captain, "Fly home.

1:03:08 Admiral, sail home." and completely disengage,

1:03:11 then that shifts the entire burden on to Iran to deal with the rest of Eurasia,

1:03:16 which is quite frankly none of the

1:03:18 leads me to a chance to promote your new book, Enough Already.

1:03:22 Time to end the war on terrorism by Scott Horton.

1:03:25 Whether you love what Scott says, hate what he says,

1:03:29 there is no denying you are a brilliant writer

1:03:31 and you immerse yourself in incredible amounts of detail and research

1:03:35 for these books and I always find them riveting

1:03:37 to read even if I don't agree with all of it.

1:03:39 I don't I don't think you would expect everyone to agree with all of it.

1:03:42 You spark great debate and it's great to have you

1:03:44 in the studio and to meet you for the first time.

1:03:46 So, thank you very much.

1:03:47 Jonathan, continue to whack me in your columns.

1:03:50 I think I think it actually is quite brand enhancing when you

1:03:53 do it and it gives me a chance to whack it back.

1:03:55 You do.

1:03:55 That's the point.

1:03:57 But it's good to see you too.

1:03:58 The point about uncens I like having people in that don't agree with me.

1:04:01 It's agree with everything you say.

1:04:03 I I totally agree.

1:04:04 And Bob, great to see you again.

1:04:06 You seem to be the Benjamin Button of military commentators.

1:04:10 Younger every time I see you.

1:04:11 Really?

1:04:12 Yeah.

1:04:12 How kind.

1:04:13 I'm coming here again.

1:04:15 Great to see you all.

1:04:15 Thank you very much.

1:04:17 Well, House Democrats this week wrote to the US Secretary of State

1:04:19 Marco Rubio urging the White House

1:04:21 to come clean about Israel's nuclear capability.

1:04:24 They argue that it's untenable for the US to fight a war alongside

1:04:28 a military with nuclear armed power

1:04:29 whose nukes are never acknowledged in public.

1:04:31 Joining me now to discuss this is is Bianca Nobel,

1:04:33 host of History Uncensored, who's been exploring why that is.

1:04:37 Bianca, uh, congrats on your channel.

1:04:40 It's going great.

1:04:40 Guns, subscribers pouring in, views pouring in.

1:04:45 This is a really interesting quandry because I keep asking people,

1:04:51 including this panel we've just had, why is it that Israel gets this weird

1:04:55 pass about being transparent about their nukes?

1:04:58 And before you give me your more expert opinion, I just want to play a clip.

1:05:03 This is from Napali Bennett, who is the guy leading the polls

1:05:06 at the moment to replace Netanyahu as prime minister.

1:05:08 When I asked him this question, why if everyone else should be transparent

1:05:14 about nuclear capability and is transparent about it,

1:05:18 why does Israel get a pass?

1:05:19 Why can't he just say, "Yeah,

1:05:21 we have nuclear weapons and here's how many we've got?"

1:05:25 As I said, we're not going to be the first ones to introduce.

1:05:28 But I I will say that no other country.

1:05:30 Does that mean you don't have any is so I I believe peers you're you're a very

1:05:36 intelligent guy and uh you can ask it in 20

1:05:39 different ways and I'll all I can say is there's

1:05:42 no other country on earth that is so threatened by others.

1:05:48 So Biano, apparently that's the reason.

1:05:51 So, we have this weird situation where Israel's

1:05:53 gone to war with the United States against

1:05:56 Iran because they don't believe them when they

1:06:00 make statements about their own nuclear capabilities or intentions.

1:06:05 And Iran is apparently obligated to be fully transparent about this.

1:06:09 But Israel, who many people believe have up to several hundred nuclear weapons,

1:06:15 have never publicly admitted this.

1:06:18 You are history uncensored.

1:06:21 Explain this to me.

1:06:24 I'd call it Schroinger's bomb.

1:06:25 And the reason that it's been able to continue since approximately 1968.

1:06:30 So that's when CIA officials said that President Lyndon Johnson

1:06:33 was informed by the CIA director that Israel had nuclear capability.

1:06:38 And where did that come from?

1:06:39 Israel worked with France in the aftermath of the Suez crisis.

1:06:43 France needed Israel's support against Egypt.

1:06:46 It was kind of a quid proquo.

1:06:47 I'm oversimplifying, but France helped Israel build the nuclear program.

1:06:51 It was masked in various ways like they were building a textile plant,

1:06:55 a manganese plant, doing other things,

1:06:58 but essentially the consensus is they had them from then.

1:07:02 So the reason this is allowed to continue

1:07:04 is obviously if the US admitted that Israel had

1:07:07 a bomb and their intelligence suggested that that would

1:07:10 break a decades old taboo which would be

1:07:12 really problematic because as you're pointing out that would

1:07:16 hinder the US's argument to say that they

1:07:18 are essentially fighting in aid of nonprololiferation

1:07:21 that the US doesn't want more countries with nuclear weapons.

1:07:24 They've said that since the end of the Cold War along with Russia.

1:07:28 So if you admit Israel has that, then you're kind of screwed argument wise.

1:07:33 And also there's this very valid strategic concern

1:07:36 which not just the US has, but also Russia,

1:07:39 China, other nuclear states, that if Israel admits to having the bomb,

1:07:43 then you have this regional cascade.

1:07:45 Then Iran obviously wants one.

1:07:47 So does Turkey, Saudi Arabia,

1:07:49 and that's problematic for all of the nuclear powers for different reasons.

1:07:53 So it's weird.

1:07:53 I mean there are nine countries who officially have nuclear weapons.

1:07:58 The United States, the United Kingdom, Russia,

1:08:00 France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.

1:08:05 I mean, we all know they have.

1:08:06 Um, how does it work?

1:08:08 I mean, if you if you want to have a nuclear weapon, what is the process?

1:08:14 You don't have an option now.

1:08:16 So, prior to 1967, you needed to test one.

1:08:19 So, that's the rule.

1:08:20 The world is governed allegedly by the nuclear non-prololiferation

1:08:24 treaty which was inked in 1967 became official in 1968.

1:08:29 So the countries that officially have the nuclear

1:08:31 bomb they're nuclear weapons states and that's just China,

1:08:34 France, the UK, the US and Russia.

1:08:38 So they're official.

1:08:40 After that you're not allowed to have a nuclear weapon.

1:08:43 No country is according to this treaty.

1:08:46 However, if you sign the treaty and therein lies a big issue.

1:08:50 you are entitled to have all access to civilian nuclear power.

1:08:55 Now, this has been a problem from the very beginning

1:08:57 and the elephant in the room because it's dual use essentially.

1:09:01 So, you could say I won't build a nuclear bomb in Iran's case,

1:09:05 but I do want civilian nuclear access.

1:09:08 But the problem is the resources, the infrastructure, the intelligence,

1:09:14 the expertise, these can obviously be transferred to make a weapon.

1:09:18 But in answer to your question, how do you go about it?

1:09:21 You're not allowed.

1:09:22 Which is why when countries try

1:09:23 to create their nuclear weapons like North Korea,

1:09:25 the world will try and stop you until you build one.

1:09:28 And then the world has no options because of fear of catastrophic retaliation.

1:09:33 So if you're in Iran's case,

1:09:34 and let's say hypothetically you did want to build a nuclear bomb,

1:09:37 you want to do that as quickly as possible strategically because then the world

1:09:39 has no option other than to let you have it and suddenly accept it.

1:09:44 There are 12,000 nuclear weapons apparently on planet Earth.

1:09:49 How many of those are active, effective, usable?

1:09:53 Because there is a theory that a lot of the Russian ones, for example, are not,

1:09:56 but they still wave their kind of nuclear uh weaponry as a sort

1:10:02 of saber rattling thing to scare people off when in fact it may be.

1:10:05 A lot of their nukes are not really usable.

1:10:10 That is almost certainly true.

1:10:12 However, in the last couple of years, China, Russia,

1:10:15 and the US have all poured more money into their nuclear weapons programs

1:10:20 in terms of expanding their arsenals of modernization

1:10:22 than they have done in previous decades.

1:10:25 So, most experts that watch this space clo closely say that we

1:10:29 are moving towards a slow but steady renewed nuclear arms race.

1:10:33 So while it might be true that a lot

1:10:35 of these weapons would be redundant or not usable,

1:10:38 there is an effort underway across all of the nuclear

1:10:40 powers to make sure that that won't be the case imminently.

1:10:44 Underpinning all this is ironically the word MAD,

1:10:49 which is mutually assured destruction.

1:10:51 That the point of having a number of countries that have nuclear

1:10:55 arsenals is that nobody would start

1:10:58 a nuclear war because everyone gets vaporized.

1:11:02 is is the reason why people are so particularly

1:11:05 agitated about Iran uh because they believe that it's

1:11:09 in the mentality of this regime that they would

1:11:13 take their own lives quite willingly for the greater good,

1:11:16 the greater cause and therefore present a different

1:11:19 threat to countries with a different mindset.

1:11:24 There are a couple of issues with mutually assured destruction or MAD.

1:11:28 The first one is it relies on everyone being a rational actor to work,

1:11:32 which I think is what you're getting at.

1:11:34 It's the notion that I'm not going to strike this country

1:11:36 because they won't want to be struck and they'll strike me back.

1:11:39 So mutual annihilation, of course, that's the worry.

1:11:42 And for people who would criticize Iran and say it is an irrational

1:11:46 theocracy that could act in a certain way backed into a corner,

1:11:49 I mean, we don't know that.

1:11:50 North Korea has had nuclear weapons since their first test, I think, in 2006.

1:11:54 But that's one of the issues.

1:11:55 However, there are plenty of people in this field that would say

1:11:58 you can't actually say that the reason that the world has been

1:12:01 more stable up until this point over the last decades is

1:12:05 the fact that there are so many nuclear weapons pointing at one another.

1:12:08 It could be economic, it could be the rules-based order,

1:12:12 which is obviously incomplete and hypocritical, but it still does exist.

1:12:16 So, nobody can really say for sure that this works,

1:12:19 which seems like a massive amount of jeopardy given what what could happen.

1:12:24 Bianca Nomolo, fascinating.

1:12:26 You are the great explainer of these complex things.

1:12:29 Uh, history uncensored is up and running as a brilliant new YouTube channel

1:12:33 for the uncensored family presented by Biana

1:12:37 who will explain the inexplicable to the masses.

1:12:40 I can't think of a more valuable public service.

1:12:43 Uh, so please uh check it out, subscribe,

1:12:46 and join the growing army of Bianca fans.

1:12:49 Bianca, lovely to talk to you.

1:12:51 You too, thanks.

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