US Awaits Iranian Response After Hormuz Clashes Strain Ceasefire

0:00 US is waiting on an offer, but still striking in the straight.

0:03 The Iranian foreign minister said, quote,

0:05 every time a diplomatic solution is on the table,

0:07 The US opts for a reckless military adventure.

0:10 Is it crude pressure tactics?

0:11 What is the state of play here,

0:14 and are we really expecting to get a response any minute?

0:17 Good question.

0:18 As of last night, the the president at least wasn't

0:21 ready to tell us that a response had come in.

0:24 You played the clip earlier as he was leaving the White House,

0:28 and he said he was expecting a response last last evening.

0:32 I hung around the White House for his return from his live golf dinner,

0:36 and he came back around 10:00 ish.

0:39 And we shouted questions at him then as well.

0:41 Did you get a response?

0:43 Did you get a response?

0:44 And he didn't respond to these to those questions and just walked by.

0:47 But from from what he said and from what secretary Rubio said,

0:51 that's what they're waiting for and still TBD on on what it says and and whether

0:57 the Iranians are willing to engage in a way that The United States wants.

1:02 The the response or the the note that you

1:05 just made that they said about hostilities impacting their desire

1:10 to continue is has been an part of the ups

1:13 and downs between the two sides really since the war began.

1:16 Abir, let me turn to you.

1:17 And we have this statement in a recent Bloomberg

1:19 piece from the the foreign ministry in Iran saying,

1:22 Tehran's response is under review.

1:23 Jeff giving us the latest there from the president who is occupied

1:26 this weekend with a number of things

1:27 including this golf tournament in in Virginia.

1:29 What have we heard from from Tehran beyond that?

1:32 What are they looking at, and how likely are we to get a response,

1:35 from our reporting, in the hours ahead?

1:38 Yeah.

1:38 Good morning, David.

1:39 So that is the latest copy that we have.

1:42 Essentially, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson

1:44 saying that the proposal where president

1:46 Trump gave Iran until yesterday to respond to is still under review.

1:51 Now Iran did not give a timeline to the response.

1:54 It's something else that is worthy of noting here.

1:57 So we're supposed to hear from them imminently about this respond.

2:01 Now Iran did come out over the past few weeks,

2:04 and they have called The US proposals that have come

2:07 through maximalist and that a lot of them are actually,

2:10 and I quote, some of the Iranian officials saying that some

2:13 of the requests that The US is putting through are quite impossible.

2:16 But let me bring you back to the beginning of this week and the region

2:20 and some of the escalations that you guys have mentioned at the top of the show.

2:24 And, essentially, these escalations that we're

2:26 seeing across the Strait Of Hormuz have

2:28 caught up to where I'm sitting right now in The UAE, in Dubai.

2:32 On Monday, We had, Monday evening starting at 7PM about four missile,

2:38 threat alerts that came through, our phones,

2:41 and essentially the defense ministry here came out later,

2:44 and said that those were,

2:47 Iranian attacks that The UAE defense system had intercepted

2:52 about 15 missiles all in all and a few drones.

2:56 So those escalations are still very much there.

2:59 They're still very much in in the sphere of of the Gulf Region.

3:04 But both The US and Iran came out and said that those attacks

3:09 do not violate the ceasefire clauses that have been put through on April 8.

3:14 And further, I mean,

3:16 the the the escalations that we've seen across the Strait Of Hormuz

3:19 have so far not impacted the ceasefire that is already in place.

3:24 So that's a positive sign,

3:26 but you're seeing the market reaction to those kinda seesaw requests

3:31 that are being put through by either The US or Iran.

3:35 And they're essentially just behaving markets, whether it's energy or equities,

3:39 are essentially behaving in response to those direct

3:43 calls from either president Trump or the Iranian side.

3:46 But as you mentioned, we're waiting to see the Iranian response again.

3:50 It was supposed to come out yesterday,

3:52 or that's the expectation of the Trump administration.

3:55 It's still not out yet.

3:57 So something that we're keeping a very close eye on over the next few days.

4:01 Jeff, I also wanna ask you about this Washington Post report because we've

4:04 been hearing messaging from the administration

4:05 saying Iran is really feeling the hurt.

4:07 They're getting close to the breaking point.

4:09 This has really been effective.

4:11 But the Washington Post, reports on confidential intelligence,

4:15 analysis sent to the White House.

4:17 Policymakers are being told Iran can survive for three

4:20 to four months before facing severe economic hardships.

4:22 Do you think that changes the calculation at all?

4:25 Because that's three or four months

4:27 of this and three or four months closer to November.

4:30 Well, it certainly raises questions about,

4:32 a, what the president and the White House are saying about this, and, b,

4:36 exactly what you just asked,

4:38 whether or not Iran can last significantly longer than

4:42 than right now people perhaps expect in the West.

4:46 Yes.

4:46 It could delay this conflict or it could extend this conflict.

4:51 The Iranians, at least from their rhetoric,

4:54 have suggested that they feel that they're

4:56 in a stronger position than than The United States.

5:00 President Trump has been using rhetoric saying that the war is over,

5:03 saying that the conflict is over.

5:05 That in part has some connection to congress and the deadline that passed there.

5:11 But in but the truth is it hasn't.

5:13 I mean, there's a ceasefire,

5:15 and that ceasefire has more or less held with the exception

5:18 of these skirmishes that have happened in the Strait Of Hormuz.

5:22 But Iran is not, so far,

5:25 until we until The United States gets that response, specifically standing down.

5:30 And and president Trump, despite saying they want a deal and he wants a deal,

5:36 has also used escalatory language to say that if a deal doesn't come,

5:41 then the striking the strikes, the bombs will flow and fall again and at an even

5:46 more intense level than they did before the cease fire.

5:49 Abir, the energy story here is so crucial

5:50 as it has been since the beginning of this war.

5:52 We know that vice president, D.

5:54 Vance, met with the Qatari prime minister this week.

5:56 They talked about regional security.

5:57 They talked about Iran.

5:59 They talked about natural gas as well.

6:01 I'm I'm curious what you can tell us about

6:03 the the level of coordination cooperation between The US,

6:06 and and the prime minister right now and sort

6:08 of what came out of those meetings and the degree

6:10 to which they're satisfied with what they're hearing

6:12 from The United States about the trajectory of this war.

6:16 Yeah.

6:16 So, look, I mean, the meeting that happened between

6:18 The US vice president and the Qatari prime minister,

6:21 we had a readout of that, and it's essentially what you just said.

6:24 They are, you know, talking about the those LNG,

6:28 shipments that are that have traditionally gone through the Strait Of Hormuz,

6:32 a fraction of that is going through.

6:34 Look.

6:34 Some of our reporting actually suggests this was

6:36 a report that came out by Bloomberg a couple of days ago suggesting that perhaps

6:42 some oil shipments and some LNG shipments are

6:45 going through the Strait Of Hormuz that are

6:48 not being tracked by by shipping companies

6:51 and that we name quite a few companies that are the biggest ones in the region.

6:56 That's Saudi Aramco and The UAE's ADNOC that where where

6:59 their ships are essentially having a little bit of success moving through.

7:04 Now, again, we're talking about from over 12,000,000 tankers

7:07 going through the Strait Of Hormuz to about 500,000, so very small figure.

7:12 But some of what we heard from that meeting that happened

7:15 between Vance and the Qatari prime minister is that The US

7:20 and Qatar are still keeping those relationships that have enabled them

7:25 in the past to essentially carry through those those wider LNG shipments.

7:31 But something else that's quite interesting here is,

7:34 you know and I allude to some of what you've mentioned about

7:38 the relationships between Gulf countries

7:40 and The United States and Israel as well.

7:43 We're seeing a little bit of a a friction between Gulf countries now.

7:47 When The UAE was attacked earlier this week,

7:50 we saw a flood of world leaders, including Saudi Arabia's MBS.

7:54 We saw Egypt's president, Sisi,

7:56 also coming to Abu Dhabi to show their solidarity.

7:59 Now MBS did hold a call with The UAE's leader, MBZ.

8:03 But something that I've been hearing a lot about is post this war,

8:08 what happens to this alliance in the GCC,

8:11 especially in the wake of The UAE leaving OPEC?

8:14 What does that mean for the wider cooperation within the sixth country at GCC?

8:18 We're seeing a little bit of friction signs there,

8:21 and so that is something that I thought was quite interesting

8:25 to think about once this war if this war is is over, David.

8:30 And I think exactly what you just talked about,

8:32 you know, Iran has created this Persian Gulf straight authority,

8:34 and and I'm sure you're hearing the same thing, Avril and Jeff,

8:36 but sources I'm talking to in the region are

8:38 really afraid that The US is gonna leave with some

8:40 sort of half measure that kind of enables Iran

8:43 to, if not stop trafficking in the strait altogether,

8:45 to taper it or control it or benefit or tax

8:48 it or toll it or any of these things.

8:50 And I think fears are really growing.

8:51 I kinda have the same question for both of you.

8:54 But, Abir, I'm gonna start with you.

8:55 Who is running this policy, both in the White House and Iran?

8:59 Abir, CNN has a report,

9:00 that US intel says Iran's supreme leader is still shaping war policy,

9:04 but we haven't really seen him.

9:06 The Iranians are saying he's in complete health.

9:08 Do we know who's running this on Iran's side, or does that still a little bit

9:12 opaque as to who's actually making these decisions?

9:15 Yeah.

9:15 Look.

9:16 I mean, you're absolutely right.

9:17 We haven't seen him.

9:18 A lot of reasons behind why we haven't seen him go through a lot.

9:21 You know, the some some reports earlier by the Wall Street Journal,

9:24 we spoke about this a couple of weeks ago,

9:26 say that he is his health condition is on in tatters a little bit,

9:31 that he needs plastic surgery.

9:33 Now none of this has been verified,

9:35 but a lot of what we're hearing from the Iranian

9:38 side is that he's still calling the calls behind the scenes,

9:42 but this collection of Iranian officials that have been front and center,

9:46 now that includes the the the foreign minister, Abasajja,

9:49 who has been in China meeting with his counterpart.

9:52 We understand as well that that meeting in China has led

9:56 to some kind of resolution or not not necessarily a resolution,

9:59 but to some kind of breakthrough in Iran coming back to the table.

10:04 The spokesperson in the ministry and the head of the parliament

10:08 as well as members of the IRGC are still very much,

10:13 you know, the officials that are keeping track

10:16 of these conversations that are happening with The US, Christina.

10:20 Jeff, same question to you.

10:23 Rubio, Vance, Witkow, Trump?

10:25 Yes?

10:26 Who's handling it on The US or handling it?

10:29 Who's really driving this policy?

10:30 Yeah.

10:31 Is it it's a combination of all of the above?

10:33 Yes.

10:34 Although I would I would say that as with all

10:37 things foreign policy and for that matter domestic policy,

10:40 everything comes down to president Trump.

10:42 This is someone who follows his instincts,

10:45 who can sometimes change his mind on a whim.

10:49 He has lieutenants, and certainly Woodcock and Kushner have

10:53 been his top lieutenants in terms of negotiation with JD

10:57 Vance also stepping in for for one set of very

11:01 high profile talks in Pakistan, as you well know.

11:04 But at the end of the day, it's it's president Trump who's driving this train.

11:08 It's president Trump who is deciding when he's ready to end and deciding

11:13 whether or not to issue additional threats or try to be deescalatory.

11:18 And he's done both.

11:19 He's done both.

11:20 On that on that last question to you, Jeff,

11:21 just about this other ceasefire we saw between Ukraine

11:24 and Russia announced by the president at the request,

11:26 I gather, of of president Putin.

11:28 What do you make of this coming about?

11:30 And I guess there's the the hope here that that could be extended further.

11:32 Any signs that that might be in the offing?

11:34 Well, I asked actually asked president Trump that last

11:36 night as he was leaving the White House,

11:38 and, he said that it was possible that that ceasefire,

11:42 between the two could be extended.

11:44 Now I don't I don't know if that's based in anything beyond optimism,

11:48 but, it was interesting that he announced this in part because the Russia,

11:52 Ukraine war, though, of course,

11:54 we know it's still going on and still very intense,

11:57 has gotten a lot less attention over the last several weeks,

12:00 at least from this side of the pond,

12:02 as president Trump has focused on, the Iran war.

12:05 So he he portrayed it as a hopeful sign and as something that either could

12:10 be extended or could lead to a broader

12:13 agreement at some point between those two sides.