Preseason Top 25 Rankings | New Bold Predictions | SEC Job Approval Grades | Brendan Sorsby Latest

0:00 uh got in my hand here.

0:02 I've got our schedule for this week.

0:03 I've got our speaker series stops for this week.

0:06 And long-time viewers of the show will understand once the week concludes,

0:11 we got a big one coming up.

0:12 No immunity.

0:13 It's just a big big week here on the campus of Pate State.

0:16 But tonight, we're jam-packed.

0:17 We're high atop a stunning sunburnt downtown Nashville, Tennessee.

0:22 Sunday night, May 3rd, the year of our Lord 2026.

0:25 You know what that means, Jesse?

0:26 Actually, you don't cuz there's nothing special about May 3rd,

0:28 but what it means for us this year, tonight, is we're doing post-spring top 25.

0:35 Commissioner's poll.

0:36 Yeah, not ratings, rankings.

0:38 These are good old-fashioned rankings.

0:40 How do we feel you're going to start the year?

0:41 How would we slot them?

0:43 And by we, I mean I.

0:44 I'm putting my name on this.

0:45 How would I slot them right now?

0:47 We got bowl predictions on the show tonight.

0:49 We've got the truth about Lane Kiffin, which could be its own show,

0:51 but it's just going to be a segment in our show.

0:53 And I've got some more thoughts on Brendan Sorsby and the whole situation out

0:57 of Texas Tech cuz we had a fair amount of feedback the other day.

1:00 Not even a whole lot of negative feedback,

1:01 just some I don't know, some interesting feedback.

1:04 People have different points of view on all this.

1:07 So, we got a jam-packed show.

1:09 They're watching us in Jacksonville, Florida.

1:11 For the first time ever, Pawtucket, Rhode Island is checking in.

1:14 I don't remember Rhode Island viewership,

1:16 which means we got some work to do in the Northeast.

1:19 Marysville, Ohio, Round Rock, Texas,

1:21 wherever you are watching {slash} listening,

1:23 make sure you are subscribed to the channel.

1:27 And it's free.

1:29 We have not raised the price.

1:31 It is $0.00 to subscribe.

1:33 It's just nice and it helps us out.

1:36 And like I said, big week coming up here on the channel.

1:40 But big night, too.

1:41 Here we go.

1:41 Let's dive in.

1:43 Spring is over.

1:45 I did a pre-spring top 25.

1:47 It sounds only right that we do a post-spring top 25.

1:49 We had some injuries.

1:50 We learned some things.

1:52 Then we got plenty more questions thrown in our face.

1:55 So, the commissioner's poll is not a power rating.

1:57 That's the JP poll.

1:58 We do it way more towards the season.

2:01 The commissioner's poll is just straight-up rankings.

2:03 If I were an AP voter, this is how I would vote these teams right now.

2:07 Uh given time over the summer, things could change, but probably not.

2:12 So, I wanted to go 25 to 1 as I see the country exiting spring.

2:17 And I'll go from 25 to 1.

2:19 And I'm going to start with the fact that I will

2:21 never leave Louisville and Jeff Brohm out of the top 25.

2:23 So, Louisville and Jeff Brohm sitting there at 25.

2:26 Lincoln Kienholz and Jeff Brohm, that's really what I'm banking on there.

2:30 Uh quarterback.

2:30 If you believe in in Jesse's words,

2:32 if you believe the scuttlebutt from a couple of years ago.

2:35 He took Julian Sayin to the wire.

2:38 He was fighting tooth and nail for that quarterback job at Ohio State.

2:41 So, Jeff Brohm, QB whisperer, noted QB whisperer, Jeff Brohm has him there.

2:45 I have got Washington at 24.

2:49 Uh some roster churn is bad.

2:51 I think the churn for the roster up there

2:53 has ended up in a net positive situation for Washington.

2:57 Jedd Fisch in year three, Demond Williams tried to escape, couldn't,

3:01 and now he's going to make the most

3:02 of Washington in sort of a second life type situation.

3:06 Hey, whatever.

3:07 I believe in him enough to have him preseason top 25.

3:09 I got Missouri at 23.

3:12 And this is where we call on friend

3:13 of the program Eli Drinkwitz to just prove me right.

3:17 You got Austin Simmons.

3:19 A year ago, Austin Simmons was good enough for Lane

3:21 Kiffin to name him as starter at Ole Miss.

3:24 We remember how that season went.

3:25 He has now transferred to Missouri.

3:27 Having him up there and having Emari Hardy

3:29 up there means you could have explosivity offensively.

3:32 They have had a fair amount of attrition though.

3:35 So, that's where you're kind of walking a tightrope here uh with Missouri.

3:39 I feel properly slotted in the 20 to 25 range, but maybe with a little bit more

3:45 variance in potential outcome this year than normal.

3:48 Speaking of variance and outcome, there's virtually none at 22.

3:52 Iowa just stays parked here.

3:54 I I wrote down it's Iowa.

3:57 That's all I had to write now.

3:58 It's Iowa.

3:59 They're They're not They're not ever going

4:01 to bottom out until something drastic happens offensively there.

4:06 They're never going to peak at anywhere higher

4:08 than having a ceiling in the teens range.

4:12 But, as has been noted on this show recently,

4:16 that's not the worst thing in the world.

4:17 The worst thing in the world would be to be in that position

4:21 and then try and reinvent yourself and you know what you end up being?

4:24 Wisconsin.

4:25 So, 22 for Iowa, good starting point.

4:28 Florida at 21 is an offensive coordinator quarterback bet a little bit here.

4:34 Buster Faulkner and I think Aaron Faelan is going to win

4:36 the job down there and I don't expect Heisman contention there.

4:40 What I do expect is good solid QB play on an otherwise really underrated roster.

4:44 They are nasty at wide receiver.

4:47 Have the potential to be one of the best wide receiver rooms in the country.

4:50 It's a really good running back situation.

4:52 The just the overall talent roster that Sumrall's inheriting there truly good.

4:55 Now, they had good talent and couldn't get it done under Billy Napier.

4:59 So, this is also kind of a bet on Jon Sumrall

5:01 to walk in with an abnormally high floor for a first-year inherited situation.

5:08 Top 20, number 20, Southern Methodist

5:12 University right there in beautiful Dallas, Texas.

5:16 That's a top 25 returning production roster.

5:19 Kevin Jennings is there.

5:20 Rhett Lashlee's there.

5:21 They're just a really good team.

5:23 I mean, I if anything, I may be a little low on them at 20.

5:27 But, I had to make room for Utah at 19.

5:29 Now, we've got coaching transition there.

5:32 Again, sometimes that's bad.

5:35 And uh it's really one of two ways you can look at this.

5:38 You could say, "Boy, Utah lost Kyle Whittingham.

5:41 He left them for Michigan." But, that's not what happened.

5:44 Utah got coaching transition by choice.

5:48 And so, look, Michigan thought Kyle Whittingham was

5:51 plenty good enough to be the head coach there,

5:53 but that's beside the point as it relates to Utah.

5:55 Utah's in the position that they want to be in, well,

5:59 at least from a coaching perspective.

6:01 Last year, they were number two in the country rushing.

6:04 They were 82nd in the country passing.

6:07 And so, I've got a I've got to think and I've

6:09 got to kind of bank on Devin Dampier growth this year.

6:14 I've got to bank on a little bit more balanced offensive approach this year.

6:18 Lost some big-time offensive line pieces to the draft,

6:21 but I trust Utah to at least be in that 15

6:25 to 20 range of serviceable there to start the season.

6:28 I'm putting Houston at 18.

6:30 Jesse, do you think the AP will have Houston ranked?

6:32 I don't think they will, either.

6:33 So, we're higher on Houston going into the season, I think,

6:36 than our friends down the road at the AP will be, but there are reasons.

6:41 So, Willie Fritz has got a really good foundation here.

6:43 Also, side note, Willie Fritz is real good, period.

6:46 Top 20 returning production that has a top 10 portal class baked into it.

6:52 And this is not a projection of what your record's going to be,

6:55 but if you did want to take the added step of thinking about

6:57 what they're capable of, which we're going to do later in this very show,

7:01 big Houston show tonight.

7:03 I will also remind you, they don't have the um I don't know,

7:09 most arduous murderers' row of a schedule this year.

7:12 But, this is not a strength of schedule thing.

7:14 We just think Houston's going to be a pretty good team.

7:16 Penn State's at 17.

7:18 You'll notice, if you're a Penn State fan,

7:20 that that is a couple of notches lower than we had them going into spring.

7:24 Well, what what could have happened in spring?

7:26 Well, we may have heard some things about some

7:28 other teams that bumped them ahead of Penn State.

7:30 Or, half the team may have been hurt in spring,

7:33 which leaves me with questions as it relates

7:36 to how you would fare entering the season right now.

7:39 Again, this This not predicting what you'll be in December,

7:42 it's where I'd slot you right now.

7:45 And I'd put Penn State in the 17 range because of so many spring injuries.

7:49 Now, eventually those guys will return.

7:51 We're not talking about a bunch of true freshman who were out,

7:53 so it's experienced guys.

7:55 We're not asking a quarterback to learn the new system.

7:57 We're just asking him to acclimate

8:00 to a new campus basically because Joey McGuire

8:02 looks to his left and right and he recognizes a lot of the people,

8:05 both players and staff there.

8:07 Again, this is not a strength of schedule thing.

8:09 I'm not taking that into account at all,

8:10 but the same thing can be said about number 17 there,

8:13 Penn State, as could be said about Houston at 18.

8:17 And that is if we're right and this is the quality

8:21 of team that either one of them are going to be,

8:23 either one of them could win 10 plus

8:24 games cuz that's how the schedule shakes out.

8:27 Now, I had a lot of trouble at 16.

8:29 This is where I'm putting Texas Tech.

8:31 So, I'm going to assume no Brendan Sorsby until someone tells me otherwise,

8:36 until Jeffrey Kessler and associates tell me otherwise,

8:40 I'm going to put Texas Tech at 16.

8:42 It It may be too low.

8:45 Will Hammond plug him in and they may still have the best team in the Big 12.

8:50 That's an eventually thing.

8:53 In the immediate future, I can't help but slot them down at 16.

8:58 It's a number two portal class in the country,

9:00 so they're not going to be hurting for talent.

9:02 It's not that.

9:03 It's just Understand now, Brendan Sorsby's the real deal.

9:07 There's a reason why plan A is somehow,

9:10 someway beat the NCAA legally and wind up back on the field for Texas Tech,

9:15 but plan B is supplemental draft because he would warrant

9:20 what would be the equivalent of first round QB consideration.

9:23 So, really, really good player.

9:24 Significant upgrade, all due respect to what they had last year.

9:28 So, if we're losing him,

9:30 I've talked to a lot of Texas Tech folks about All right,

9:32 what's the best case scenario with him and without him?

9:35 It's a world's difference.

9:37 Now, that may only be the difference in maybe one game in the regular season.

9:42 The difference as it relates to your playoff hopes is like a Grand Canyon to me.

9:46 So, I'll put Texas Tech at 16.

9:49 And I'll put Michigan at 15 as we get into the top 15.

9:52 They're kind of a tough team to slot.

9:53 Michigan's one of those teams if you're if you're banking on potential,

9:57 if you're banking on roster talent, which is a lot of what we go

10:00 on in the spring cuz no football games have happened yet,

10:03 then it's tough to knock Michigan way lower than this.

10:08 Then come the questions.

10:09 With the new staff in, uh this is this is

10:12 not one of those instances of bad staff churn.

10:15 This is good staff churn.

10:17 This is going to be a a pretty significant

10:19 net upgrade over what the situation was last year.

10:22 Now, what does that mean for Bryce Underwood?

10:25 What does that mean for his production?

10:27 And then I could say that, you know,

10:28 downstream for the rest of the roster, but I feel okay having Michigan at 15.

10:34 If you had him at 12th or 20th, I wouldn't probably argue either way.

10:37 May argue a little bit more against 12 than 20, but I've got them there.

10:42 I put Brigham Young at 14.

10:44 Like I think a lot of folks probably are

10:46 going to sleep on Brigham Young a little bit.

10:47 Everyone's just going to kind of throw this this blanket feeling

10:51 that the Big 12 is Texas Tech with or without Brandon Soursby.

10:55 Well, I don't automatically feel that way.

10:57 I do feel it if they have him.

10:59 I don't automatically feel that.

11:01 And it ain't even cuz I think Texas Tech's going to suck.

11:03 It's just cuz Brigham Young's a really good team.

11:06 And they got a lot of returning production off of a group from last

11:09 year that has been told you didn't really win anything cuz they didn't.

11:14 They ran up against Texas Tech twice.

11:16 They lost to him twice, and that's it.

11:18 Just no one remembers anything.

11:20 Well, here's what I remember.

11:22 Otherwise, that was a really good team that won a lot of games.

11:26 Those are dependable players.

11:28 That's a head coach that had a shot at the Penn State job and turned it down.

11:31 And that's a place that's extremely hungry,

11:33 and because they don't have a ton of newness all over the place,

11:37 I expect them to enter the season playing at a pretty high level.

11:41 So, I put Brigham Young in the top 15.

11:43 I put them at number 14.

11:44 I put Alabama at number 13.

11:48 Quarterback's going to be talked about a whole lot.

11:49 It should be talked about a whole lot.

11:50 Like I said the other day,

11:52 I expect quarterback to end up being a strength of this team.

11:56 I don't know that I can say that for offensive line.

11:58 I don't know that I can say that for the ground game.

12:01 What I do know is I expect them to be

12:04 upgraded at least in terms of running the ball, only because it can't get worse.

12:10 So, I'm not really saying a whole lot there.

12:12 It's how much do they upgrade?

12:13 Do they go from the 100s to like 81st,

12:17 or do they do what Georgia did 2 years ago

12:20 and go from the 100s back up into the top 30?

12:22 Those are two different worlds.

12:24 Because I don't know which is which, that's why I've got them down at 13.

12:28 I will say this, though.

12:30 The defensive personnel along the defensive front

12:33 is really upgraded in terms of size.

12:36 Said that when I watched them scrimmage a few weeks ago,

12:38 and you're starting to hear a lot more

12:39 people talk about that as spring is wrapped up.

12:42 That's a real thing.

12:43 They made some moves and got some guys

12:45 that can really really help against the run,

12:47 which is where they probably were a little looser

12:50 than they wanted to be at times last year.

12:52 I got LSU at 12.

12:54 LSU needs a real big asterisk next to their name

12:57 to remind everyone this is a post-spring top 25.

13:01 In other words, this is kind of how

13:03 I would think the season would start right now.

13:06 LSU ceiling is that of a final four team.

13:11 But, there are a ton of injury concerns, not the least of which was quarterback,

13:15 so they couldn't really practice fully the way they wanted to in spring.

13:18 You had injuries at corner, and you just got a whole bunch of newness.

13:22 So, it's your starting point, which is what I'm trying to figure out right now,

13:27 And then your ending point being two different stories.

13:29 If I'm doing a playoff projection or maybe just an end of the season projection,

13:34 I may have LSU a lot different than number 12,

13:36 but I got them at number 12 right now cuz

13:38 that's where I feel like they would enter the season.

13:40 I got Southern Cal at number 11.

13:42 This has got to be the year for USC.

13:45 And I think for the first time under Lincoln Riley,

13:48 I do agree with him when he says,

13:50 "Hey, we're entering a window here." Should it have taken that long?

13:53 Of course not, but nevertheless, we're entering a window here.

13:56 There is more to like about this USC team entering

13:59 a season than I think any team Lincoln has had there.

14:03 I feel like at the line of scrimmage,

14:05 we can finally look at them as at least a break-even team in the Big 10.

14:09 Now, I'm speaking cautiously here cuz I

14:11 understand the weight of what I'm saying.

14:13 A Lincoln Riley team being in a break-even position on the line

14:18 of scrimmage in the Big 10 is no small sentence.

14:21 So, we're going to find out if we're right about that.

14:23 But outside of that, they I think should expect to win some big games this year.

14:29 And I think they should expect to be a playoff team this year.

14:32 I expect them to be in the hunt for a playoff spot.

14:34 So, I got them at number 11.

14:36 Lincoln Riley has never let me down with any prediction my entire life, Jessie.

14:41 We move on.

14:41 Number 10, Texas A&M.

14:44 I've got questions, but I don't

14:47 automatically assume my questions equal weaknesses.

14:50 A&M's one of those teams that because they recruit

14:52 and portal inside the top 10 every year on average,

14:56 they can enter a season with questions meaning, "Oh,

14:59 we lost some guys to the draft or graduation or transferring.

15:02 There's a guy or guys in their places that are questions.

15:06 You've never heard of them." Well,

15:07 sometimes that equals weakness in college football.

15:10 That's not necessarily the case there.

15:13 It's just what will end up being a bunch

15:15 of really good players that you don't know.

15:16 And I think it'll be a lot of that for A&M this year.

15:19 Now, what we do have to ask ourselves and what I'm trying

15:22 to figure out is what's the floor for Marcel Reed this year.

15:26 His ceiling notwithstanding, I don't really even so much care about his ceiling.

15:29 I want to know what's the worst it could be.

15:32 Are there any like crash and burn moments this year or is a lot more steady?

15:36 Cuz I could go without the spikes in production, frankly,

15:40 if I don't have the massive dips every now and then.

15:42 That's what I would love to see.

15:44 They're really strong at the skill spots.

15:46 I think the offensive line, while everyone looks at replacing four or five,

15:51 needs to also be understood that they got a really good depth situation there.

15:57 So, I don't think it's nearly as drastic or dire as people

15:59 who don't know that team are going to make it out to be.

16:01 I put Oklahoma at nine.

16:04 I got a healthy Quinshon Judkins,

16:06 the rightful 2025 Heisman Trophy winner who was robbed.

16:10 Yes, robbed.

16:11 You're Well, Jesse, when he got hurt, who led the overall Heisman odds?

16:16 Quinshon Judkins led the Heisman odds, and I was holding the ticket.

16:20 I should know.

16:21 So, the rightful 2025 Heisman Trophy winner is back and healthy.

16:26 The ground game, again, will improve this year.

16:29 How do I know that?

16:30 Cuz it can't get worse.

16:32 I said the same thing about Alabama that I'd say about Oklahoma.

16:35 And so, offensive line, I need some upgrade there.

16:38 I need some upgrade in the ground game.

16:40 Defense is going to be really good.

16:42 It's a really good team.

16:42 They're in a good position.

16:44 I'll tell you the one that's being overlooked

16:46 that I put at number eight is Ole Miss.

16:48 People are badly overlooking Ole Miss.

16:51 People looked at Ole Miss and said, "Oh,

16:53 Quinshon Judkins, his status is up in the air.

16:56 We're going to put him in the 15 to 20 range." I did that.

17:00 But I also said, "If Judkins is eligible,

17:03 this is a an a bonafide slam dunk top 10 team." And then,

17:07 Quinshon Judkins was ruled eligible.

17:10 Ole Miss is a top 10 team.

17:12 It's not a one-man show over here.

17:13 Quinshon Judkins is still there.

17:15 Uh people were thinking this defense is going to fall off a cliff.

17:18 It's not.

17:19 Ole Miss is a really, really dangerous team, really good team.

17:23 This is a team that's a player two

17:25 away from going to the national title last year,

17:28 and a team with a breakout star at quarterback in the playoffs.

17:32 And I don't know if America has awoken

17:34 to the fact that that guy's playing again this year.

17:37 Or maybe they have, but they don't know how to value it properly.

17:41 So, I'm really high on Ole Miss right now.

17:43 If you expect them to fall off, even if you do,

17:46 you may want to delay that expectation at least a year.

17:49 Sounds a little disrespectful.

17:51 Maybe they won't fall off.

17:52 I'm just saying I don't think the fall off's coming this year.

17:55 I have a hard time forecasting fall

17:58 off with that guy playing quarterback for you.

18:01 Georgia at number seven.

18:04 All right, excellent overall team.

18:06 This is where you start to get into that range of teams where just the overall

18:10 structure of organization and roster makes it

18:12 such that their floor is as top 10.

18:15 Georgia's been that for a long time.

18:17 Only questions there would be, you know, pass rush,

18:21 lost one of those guys in the spring,

18:23 wide receiver at its top end, is it dynamic enough?

18:28 What kind of progression do we get from Gunnar Stockton?

18:31 But all in all, I mean, Georgia, I don't have to vouch for them.

18:34 They vouch for themselves with their play on the field every year.

18:36 I'm putting Indiana at six, which is probably their floor right now.

18:41 Although they don't have as long a track record as some of these other schools,

18:46 but then again, when you,

18:47 you know, blowtorch your way to a national championship doing it your way,

18:50 I'm kind of going to trust your way.

18:52 So, do they lose a lot?

18:53 Yeah.

18:54 Do they have a lot?

18:55 Also, yeah.

18:57 Their ceiling is number one.

18:59 The only reason I'm putting them at number six is this is a preseason thing,

19:03 and I I got to find out for myself what the Indiana Josh Hoover consists of.

19:09 I found out who Fernando Mendoza was at Indiana.

19:13 I need to find out what Josh Hoover is at Indiana.

19:16 I I just want to make sure that these wide receiver backfills pan out,

19:20 but all in all, the defensive replacements, if those pan out,

19:25 I mean, if you're anywhere remotely close

19:27 to what they were able to do last year,

19:29 then yeah, they're probably even low at six.

19:32 Top five, Miami is my number five team right now.

19:37 I expect them to be an equal or better version of last

19:40 year's team mainly because I think they are upgraded at quarterback,

19:43 especially relative to the system that they run down there.

19:46 Love D'Eriq King being able to work under Shannon Dawson.

19:48 Love D'Eriq King being able to work under Shannon Dawson.

19:50 Love the receiver room.

19:52 Love the tailbacks.

19:53 Love the eventual potential of the offensive line,

19:56 even if it takes a little while to round into form, truthfully.

20:01 That's the only reason I got Miami as low as five,

20:03 cuz this is a really, really loaded team.

20:05 Really loaded.

20:07 People can pay attention to what they lost all you want to.

20:10 I would pay much more attention to what they still have.

20:13 Ohio State at number four, same thing.

20:16 I basically look at them every year as being a floor top five team.

20:21 Uh draft attrition for the second year in a row, yes.

20:25 I just blindly trust them.

20:28 I blindly trust Ryan Day and having

20:30 a pair of NFL coordinators under him right now.

20:33 So, the staff's loaded, the roster's loaded.

20:36 Are they capable of starting hot?

20:39 And unlike some years,

20:41 you kind of need to cuz they play a really tough schedule this year.

20:44 Oregon at number three.

20:47 Love the quarterback wide receiver combos here.

20:50 Uh we got Evan Stewart back, De'Corian Morris still up there,

20:53 and you can go down the list, man.

20:54 Like even if I were to take those two away,

20:57 the guys under them will probably be mentioned

21:00 a whole lot less because they play at Oregon.

21:02 Those would be standout players at some of these other places.

21:06 Uh but also the defensive line depth there

21:08 is the envy of the rest of the country.

21:11 And I also think that Oregon the kind of as a as a program,

21:15 they sort of built to this year.

21:17 That doesn't mean that they were incapable of winning before,

21:20 but it's like you put yourself in range

21:22 of playoff and title contention every year,

21:25 but some years you'll be closer than other years.

21:28 Like Ohio State in 2024, that was their year.

21:32 They're still going to be close enough every other year.

21:34 Texas this is their year.

21:36 Well, Oregon, this is one of those years.

21:38 Speaking of Texas, got them at number two.

21:41 This is the year.

21:42 This is the year they have the best chance of it happening.

21:45 They crushed the portal with that in mind.

21:48 Cam Coleman at Texas is going to be insane.

21:51 Ryan Wingo should also be insane.

21:54 Don't forget with all the talk about the offense there,

21:58 they brought in Will Muschamp at defensive coordinator.

22:01 Now, the working theory is when you go up against the Georgia's of the world,

22:06 there aren't many, and you're second best physically,

22:11 you got to find a way to inject a little

22:13 more of what they have into what you do.

22:15 And I don't think it's any accident that they

22:17 targeted some of the staff additions that they did.

22:21 And so Texas elsewhere is they're just loaded.

22:24 It's a loaded roster.

22:26 But yet I didn't put them at number one because I remain convinced

22:31 that Notre Dame needs to be my number one team to start the year.

22:34 They've got everything I want to from a roster perspective.

22:37 They've got CJ Carr at quarterback.

22:39 I don't care what Dembrock says about him driving stuff in the ditch.

22:41 He's not going to do it in the season.

22:43 That's not going to happen.

22:43 Mike Dembrock does not know his quarterback like I do.

22:46 So, he'll be fine.

22:48 He'll be fine.

22:48 Defense will be fine.

22:50 In fact, they'll be loaded.

22:51 There's an urgency there because of what happened last year.

22:55 So, I don't expect them to ease into the season.

22:57 I actually expect them to annihilate people.

22:59 You know they play Rice early, Jesse.

23:02 Fried Rice early this year.

23:04 And for all the talk about them losing a couple of first round running backs,

23:08 and there should be talk about that, I still

23:10 expect that position to be very good for them.

23:12 So, that as of this moment is my post-spring preseason top 25.

23:20 Subject to change.

23:22 It is, after all, early May.

23:24 Happy to have you guys with us.

23:25 We've got a jam-packed show.

23:26 I got a lot to get to.

23:29 And uh just humbly ask that you subscribe to the channel,

23:32 if you haven't already.

23:33 Got a lot of you watching live.

23:36 Beautiful.

23:36 Beautiful.

23:38 And then we transition to this, not so beautiful.

23:41 Mike from Phoenix, Arizona, hit me up.

23:44 He said, "Do you think a special exception should exist

23:47 for teams like Texas Tech to get a portal window after spring,

23:50 since they may have lost their starting quarterback for something

23:53 they had nothing to do with?" How should I put this?

23:58 No, I don't think that.

24:00 I think that's insane.

24:01 You're not insane, Mike.

24:02 You You are not a casual person, but smart people sometimes say casual things,

24:06 and I think this is kind of a casual suggestion.

24:09 Now, I'm going to work off an assumption here.

24:11 I'm going to assume that Brendan Sorsby's not

24:14 going to play this year for Texas Tech, but that is not decided.

24:17 I want to make sure everyone understands,

24:19 and I'm going to circle back around to this in a few minutes,

24:21 cuz there have been some developments there.

24:24 And so, I'll give you all the latest.

24:27 I'm still unconvinced that it's going to go his way.

24:29 That's why I'm putting it off until the end.

24:31 So, let's assume Brendan Sorsby's not going to play this year.

24:34 And let's assume that Texas Tech made it

24:37 to the Orange Bowl last year in the playoffs,

24:40 and then they got stuffed by Oregon,

24:42 and they realized on that flight home, "We were really good this year.

24:45 Defensively, we were good enough to win a title.

24:48 Quarterback was not good enough to win a title." So,

24:50 they go and they get a future first-round NFL quarterback in Brendan Sorsby,

24:54 and they pay however many millions of dollars they

24:57 had to, but that's okay cuz it's legal now.

25:00 We we pride ourselves in it and we get them

25:02 out there and then we find out after the portal closes,

25:05 after spring's done, he's suspended for illegal gambling activity.

25:12 Well, that's what happened.

25:13 Get you up to speed so far.

25:14 That's what happened.

25:18 And you're asking me if the Texas Tech

25:21 Red Raiders should have an opportunity that the rest

25:24 of college football doesn't have to go

25:28 into a portal that doesn't exist, by the way.

25:30 I don't even know how that would work, but theoretically,

25:32 they could just uh go poach any player off any roster.

25:35 Why?

25:35 Because misfortune befell them?

25:38 That's how that's supposed to work?

25:40 Here's Here's the thing.

25:41 Mike It It was Mike, right, Bradley?

25:43 It was Mike, yeah.

25:44 Mike, I assume you're a good and decent person and you're really

25:48 asking this question cuz you hate to see this happen at Texas Tech.

25:51 I love Texas Tech.

25:54 I might as well look for rental property out there.

25:56 Okay, Savannah State loves it more than I do.

25:58 So, we we love Lubbock, Texas.

26:00 Love Joey.

26:01 Love all that.

26:01 I'm I'm giving you all these qualifiers cuz I'm about

26:03 to say something that sounds kind of mean to Texas Tech,

26:06 but someone's got to do it.

26:10 This is the way it works.

26:13 You get one portal window and you go and get the guys that you can get.

26:17 You got your choice, especially if you're Texas Tech.

26:19 Okay, and you can spend like they do.

26:21 It's an adult world.

26:23 It's a big boy world, okay?

26:25 It's not preschool.

26:26 So, you go and you you get the players and then you

26:29 assemble them as best you can using the information at your disposal.

26:33 I don't even blame them.

26:35 It's not like we're vetting a Supreme Court justice here.

26:37 This stuff happens really quick.

26:39 So, I don't blame them so much for not knowing.

26:41 How are they going to know?

26:42 Uh what's Joey McGuire going to do?

26:44 Like pull his online betting records?

26:46 How would he ever know that?

26:47 So, I'm not blaming Texas Tech for not knowing,

26:50 but I'm also not blaming the rest of college football.

26:52 Like it is what it is.

26:54 What if he got hurt?

26:55 What what if he had no history of illegal gambling activity by NCAA standards,

27:01 but he tore his ACL?

27:02 That happens all the time.

27:04 If he got hurt instead of getting suspended,

27:07 should I let Texas Tech go to the portal in that case?

27:10 I I got a lot of other teams out here that just lost players in the spring.

27:14 Should I Should I let Texas A&M go to the portal for a linebacker?

27:19 Should Should that be the way that works?

27:21 Or is it just in special circumstances like this?

27:24 Look, this is reality.

27:25 And if Texas Tech suffers for it this year, so be it.

27:28 But remember what the alternative was, Mike, and everyone else.

27:32 Remember what the alternative was.

27:33 It's just 1 year ago that we were living

27:36 in a world where we had one transfer portal window.

27:39 Then we had spring football.

27:41 Then we had a second transfer portal window,

27:44 which was total insanity and one of the dumbest concepts imaginable.

27:47 So, we finally got that closed.

27:50 And we closed it with an understanding.

27:53 And the understanding was this move is a net positive for college football,

27:58 but it won't be without victims.

28:01 But for the greater good of the sport, we collectively,

28:04 and I'm I'm part of we we decided I don't think we want a second portal window.

28:09 It seems kind of stupid and counterintuitive.

28:11 So, let's close it.

28:12 Now, could I have players get hurt leaving

28:16 me with no recourse and me just having

28:19 to suck it up and go into the season with a glaring hole on my roster?

28:22 Yes, that could happen.

28:24 Could I have a quarterback get himself wrapped up in a scandal

28:27 and I lose him for the year and I've got I've got no recourse?

28:32 I've just got to play with what I got on my roster.

28:34 Yeah, that could happen.

28:35 It's It's football.

28:37 Everyone's playing by the same rules at least.

28:40 It's not like Texas Tech's playing by one set

28:42 of rules and everyone else gets a second portal window.

28:45 So, these it's just the way the cards fell for Texas Tech.

28:48 And by the way, we don't even know that's the way it's going to turn out.

28:50 We just think that's the way it's going to turn out.

28:52 Now, we talked about Brenda Sorsby the other night.

28:55 I talked about this whole situation the other night,

28:57 and I did get a little pushback on it.

28:59 Frankly, not as much as I thought I would,

29:02 but I did get a little pushback on it.

29:03 And you can imagine,

29:05 like a lot a lot of you guys listening and you girls listening,

29:07 you've got varying thoughts about maybe just sports betting in general,

29:11 maybe the way sports betting is in bed

29:15 with various professional leagues and college football,

29:18 maybe the way it's advertised.

29:20 So, you got a lot of feelings about that.

29:22 That's separate from this.

29:24 Whether you think that or not, it's separate from this.

29:26 And what I noticed in a lot of the pushback we

29:28 got the other night was it was misguided anger at something else.

29:32 A lot of people saw that Brendan Sorsby had been suspended because he is alleged

29:37 to have bet on college football games he was a part of at Indiana a while back.

29:44 And your retort to me in DMs and whatnot was, "Well,

29:49 this is BS." And I interacted with a lot of you.

29:52 You know who you are.

29:53 And I said, "Why is it BS?

29:54 Are you telling me he shouldn't be suspended?"

29:56 And a lot of what I got back was just,

29:58 "Well, well, you got you got gambling ads all over the place.

30:01 And well, these leagues are allowed to do deals and these networks are allowed

30:05 to do deals and everyone's allowed to do

30:06 deals with gambling companies and participate in it,

30:09 but the players can't." And I said, "Yes.

30:12 Yeah, that's pretty much the state of affairs.

30:15 What are you trying to say to me?

30:17 And what you're really trying to say is you don't like something else,

30:22 and you're kind of taking out that anger on the situation.

30:24 You may think it's hypocritical that leagues

30:27 can do deals with sports betting companies, but the players can't bet.

30:32 It makes total sense to me.

30:34 I again want to remind everyone, we're a FanDuel partner.

30:38 So, I'm in I'm in a relationship that spans several years with FanDuel.

30:43 So, if you think that makes me a hypocrite taking the stance I do, okay.

30:47 I promise you I'd have this stance whether we made a dime from FanDuel or not.

30:52 I could look at it, if I were to put myself in your shoes for a second,

30:55 I've got no problem looking and saying,

30:58 I personally don't love the proliferation of sports betting.

31:04 Period.

31:05 I could look at it and say, you know,

31:07 I don't maybe have a problem with sports betting so much,

31:10 but I don't like that it's constantly in my face.

31:12 I get that.

31:14 I could look at it and say, you know,

31:16 and maybe maybe this is where rubber meets the road a little bit.

31:20 If your stance is, if it's illegal for the participants of the leagues,

31:25 of the sports to bet on the sport,

31:27 then the sport itself and the leagues should not be

31:31 able to profit off of advertising with sports betting companies.

31:36 If you've got that stance, that makes sense to me.

31:39 That makes sense to me, okay?

31:41 So, I'm going to put that one to the side.

31:42 But, most of what I got was the former.

31:46 And so, really what you're upset about is something

31:48 else that's unrelated to Brendan Sorsby, is all I'm saying.

31:51 Now, there is an update here.

31:52 So, before we move on, I did want

31:54 to remind everyone or inform you, Ross Dellenger,

31:58 while the rest of you were at the beach or at the lake or, you know,

32:01 living your lives over the weekend,

32:02 he was hard at work and he put this out yesterday, right, Jesse?

32:07 It's about a day old now.

32:08 On Twitter, quote, Quarterback Sorsby has retained attorney

32:13 Jeffrey Kessler in his potential fight to regain eligibility,

32:17 Kessler tells Yahoo Sports.

32:19 Sorsby is hoping to reach a compromise with the NCAA.

32:23 If not, he may pursue the legal path.

32:26 Any legal challenge is independent of Texas Tech.

32:29 So, this is Brendan Sorsby versus the NCAA, basically.

32:33 And he is I don't really know what the case would be here.

32:36 It seems like it's a pretty dead

32:39 to rights situation on the fact that this happened.

32:41 Although I myself have not had the evidence put in front of me,

32:44 but all the reporting on this is that he he bet on college football.

32:49 At Indiana.

32:50 Betting on games that Indiana was playing in.

32:53 That happened.

32:54 Again, allegedly, that happened among several other bets that were

32:58 on sports and that are not named college football.

33:00 So they're seeking an injunction there.

33:02 Now, here is the devil in the details.

33:06 The NCAA moves pretty slow on this.

33:08 I don't know how fast the legal process would move,

33:11 but there's a very important date out there on the horizon.

33:14 Right now, it's May 3rd.

33:16 The supplemental draft is June 30th.

33:19 The supplemental NFL draft,

33:20 which you mostly don't even know happens, is June 30th.

33:25 And his alternatives here, his choices here rather,

33:28 are get an injunction and somehow he's able to play.

33:32 That's A.

33:33 B, he reaches a resolution with the NCAA or compromise

33:38 in Ross's words with the NCAA and he's able to play.

33:40 That's two.

33:41 Both of those would get him on the field.

33:43 Option three, he holds out in the fight past June 30th,

33:48 but then he's still ruled ineligible and he's just out

33:52 for the year and then he goes and enters the NFL draft.

33:55 That's option three.

33:56 Option four is he realizes he's got no shot

34:00 and or the injunction is not granted before June 30th,

34:04 at which point he says, "Well, let's see.

34:06 We're still pre-June 30th.

34:07 The supplemental draft is June 30th.

34:09 I'll just enter the supplemental draft and I'll I'll head to the NFL

34:13 in time for this year." Which he has every right to do.

34:18 So, that is what we're waiting on right now.

34:21 But yeah, as as far as Texas Tech having recourse,

34:24 it doesn't feel like there's much recourse here.

34:25 They're at the mercy of the NCAA and the rules and look,

34:29 it if you're a Texas Tech fan, I mean, I'd be upset about it.

34:33 But, I don't think you can rightly sit here unless

34:36 you unless you're privy to information I'm not privy to.

34:38 You can't honestly be sitting here saying, uh you know what?

34:41 He should be able to play anyway,

34:43 cuz you never would have said that if it didn't involve your team.

34:48 If it involved Arizona State and Arizona State's

34:50 quarterback was was found Arizona State's transfer quarterback

34:54 was found guilty of betting on games that he

34:56 was a participant in at his prior stop.

35:00 You would never in your right mind look at that situation and say,

35:02 I'll let him play anyway.

35:04 Uh uh what what do we really lose there?

35:06 Well, you know, the integrity of the game.

35:08 Some people laugh at that because there

35:10 are different ways to define integrity of game.

35:12 I mean the actual competitive integrity of the game.

35:14 If you don't have that, you don't have a sport.

35:17 You've got Well, you got WWE essentially,

35:20 which is okay as long as it's presented properly.

35:22 That's not what we're trying to do with football.

35:26 Speaking of football.

35:28 Every Saturday I wake up and before I even put

35:31 my contacts in, I use one eye and I scroll,

35:36 index finger like this, through the eye Josh and I find the cornfield picture.

35:42 And I tweet it out with a reminder

35:45 of how many Saturdays we are from college football season.

35:49 Alex and allegedly producer Jessie, allegedly, looked at that and said,

35:56 well, if that means college football is coming eventually,

36:00 and we've got the Pate State store over here

36:02 just sitting there with infinite amounts of shelf space,

36:06 why shouldn't we put representation about

36:10 college football approaching in the store?

36:14 And then they found out that Savannah State

36:17 has recently gotten me to watch Game of Thrones.

36:21 Very recently.

36:22 It's a new thing.

36:22 I don't know what to think about it yet.

36:24 But, what I do know is whatever Winter is Coming

36:28 means is of secondary concern to me at the moment.

36:33 Because college football coming is of primary concern.

36:36 And as you can see here, we have brand new items,

36:41 not merch, items in the Pate State store to signify that.

36:45 Football is coming, ladies and gentlemen.

36:47 It will be here.

36:48 Now, in the meantime, we can have a lot of fun.

36:52 Just a just a sun-filled vacation-filled summer.

36:56 And there's also a new shirt for the Pate State Summer Series,

36:59 which I just made up right now.

37:00 Uh but yeah, we got two new items in the Pate State store, patestate.com.

37:04 Jesse predicts that the football is coming shirt

37:06 will be our biggest mover of the month.

37:08 I think you've got an unfair advantage cuz it's a new item,

37:11 so I'm not betting him on it, but yeah.

37:14 I already bought the sleeveless version.

37:16 I had Alex make sleeveless versions, by the way.

37:18 I know our audience.

37:19 Jesse may not lift, but our audience lifts.

37:22 Let's move on.

37:25 Jesse's been working out an apartment gym for a long time

37:27 and tried to pass it off as a real gym, not working.

37:30 And now he's allegedly joined a real gym, but no one can vouch for it.

37:36 No one has seen him.

37:38 No one I don't know what the address is.

37:40 You've not told me a thing about it.

37:43 All I know is producer Jesse showed up to the Y one day,

37:48 and that was the end for producer Jesse.

37:50 Yeah.

37:51 And then he blew out his hamstring in softball, and the rest is history.

37:54 All right.

37:55 Job approval time.

37:56 SEC job approval.

37:58 What do the fan bases think about these head coaches?

38:01 Who's Is there any hot seat situation in the SEC right now?

38:04 Well, there's not in Athens, Georgia.

38:06 We start with Kirby Smart.

38:08 Uh Kirby would be at an A+ pretty much anywhere else.

38:11 I think he's a prisoner of his own success a little bit,

38:13 so his grade would just be an A, which is like one notch down from A+.

38:18 This has obviously been the best era in the history of Georgia football.

38:22 He his his program's got the highest

38:24 floor of any program year-over-year in the conference.

38:28 It's like you could just bank on 10 wins minimum.

38:31 Now, it's a new SEC, so no one could bank on 10 wins minimum anymore.

38:36 No one can do that.

38:37 But up until 5 minutes ago, Kirby and Georgia could do it.

38:40 I think he's a little bit of a prisoner of his own success in that you know,

38:45 they've made the playoffs back-to-back years.

38:46 They've won the SEC back-to-back years.

38:49 And once upon a time, I mean, that would be ticker tape parade stuff.

38:53 But now since they win so much, it's just it's just what we do, quote-unquote.

38:59 And then you take a more fine-tooth comb through the situation.

39:02 So, you know, like uh Georgia fan up in Dahlonega,

39:06 if this were to be happening 15 years ago,

39:08 would be slam-dunk A+ turn the ballot in.

39:10 Now, it's well, I'm glad that we won the SEC back-to-back years.

39:16 And I appreciate the style of play.

39:20 And I appreciate that we've made the playoff, but we got beat by Notre Dame.

39:26 And then Trinidad Chambliss beat us last year.

39:29 Defense really failed us.

39:32 And and also, Mike Bobo, man.

39:35 And there's nothing following that.

39:36 It's just Mike Bobo, man.

39:38 Period.

39:39 So, I'm going to bump him down to an A.

39:41 That I think, if you were to take

39:43 a thousand fan sample size amongst our Georgia friends,

39:47 you'd probably hear a fair amount of that.

39:49 I'm not claiming that he's perfect.

39:50 I'm just claiming I think he's doing the best job in the conference right now.

39:53 So, he'd be an A+ for me.

39:55 I think he would grade out at an A.

39:56 What about Josh Heupel at Tennessee?

39:58 And we've struggled on this one.

40:00 We struggled on this one.

40:01 So again, what what I'm trying to do here is

40:03 figure out if we took a poll of a thousand fans,

40:07 not like fringe minority either way, I mean, the the core of the fan base,

40:12 and they graded the head coach, what would would grade out at?

40:17 I think Heupel would be at a B- here.

40:20 But this is very, very fluid.

40:22 I could see it being anywhere from a C+ to a B+.

40:26 And it really all depends on probably your age.

40:28 Cuz if you're 45 years old and you can remember the Derek Dooley era,

40:32 and you can remember the Butch Jones era,

40:34 and you can remember several eras that weren't much of anything,

40:37 and you know how long it's been since Phil Fulmer roamed the sidelines there,

40:41 you know how long it's been since you had a streak going against Alabama

40:45 instead of them rattling off like 15 in a row against you up until recently.

40:49 If you are of that age, you're probably closer to B or B+.

40:53 Cuz Heupel pulled them out of the ditch.

40:55 And I don't mean one wheel in the ditch.

40:57 I mean on on the roof in the ditch.

41:01 And he got the tow truck and he hooked the hooks

41:03 into it and got the bus back out on the road, and it's moving fairly well, too.

41:07 Had a couple of double-digit win seasons his first couple of years there.

41:11 They ended the streak against Bama.

41:13 They've beat them in '22 and '24.

41:14 I thought that banked a ton of equity for him.

41:17 They've made the playoff.

41:18 Now, they got blown out, so I just listed all the positives.

41:21 Some of the negatives start to seep in.

41:23 I think more of the C+ B- crowd would tell you, "Okay,

41:27 yeah, we made the playoff, but 12 teams make the playoff now.

41:30 And we've made it once, and we got blown out.

41:33 So, you know another way to say that?

41:35 He's He's half a decade in and we have no playoff wins to show for him here.

41:40 He's half a decade in.

41:41 We haven't made it to Atlanta to play for the SEC Championship.

41:45 Those things are true.

41:47 It's pretty hard to do.

41:49 But those things are true.

41:50 The wild card, this is where it gets really fluid.

41:54 The wild card is the way he handled the Nico Iamaleava stuff last year.

42:00 I thought was interpreted really well by the fan base,

42:03 and they understood we're proud of the way he just handled this.

42:07 He didn't allow a kid or his representation to hold the program hostage.

42:11 He said, "See you later.

42:12 If that means we lose a couple of more games this year,

42:14 okay." And they went eight and five

42:16 and it wasn't a disastrous eight and five either.

42:19 There weren't a bunch of blowouts there.

42:21 So, it wasn't as bad as it could have been.

42:25 But, I still think you're left wanting more.

42:28 And so, I still think people look in the totality

42:31 of it and they look at what Kurt

42:32 Signetti just did and they understand in this day

42:35 and age when you can just do it overnight, you can immunity, flip it overnight,

42:40 you have to look and say, "All right, look,

42:42 we're we're we're willing to have some

42:43 level of understanding here." But, still, man,

42:48 you're not getting B+ or A- out of me until you've got a playoff win,

42:52 until we host one of those things here.

42:55 So, I think B-.

42:56 Jeff Lebby at Mississippi State.

42:59 I consulted some people very close to the program today,

43:03 who shall remain nameless per their request,

43:06 cuz I had to get a feel of where Mississippi State fans were on Jeff Lebby.

43:11 Now, my best guess is that he would land at a C+.

43:16 In my personal opinion,

43:18 I would go B- to maybe even B because of where the program was and then the fact

43:24 that he pulled them from two and 10

43:27 in his first year to five and eight last year.

43:31 But, last year, the five and eight included one-possession losses to Texas,

43:38 to Tennessee, and to Florida.

43:41 So, it was one of those teams that was

43:43 probably a lot better than the record indicated they were.

43:46 Now, that's the so far.

43:48 Like, so I think maybe the fan base would look and say, "We don't care.

43:51 We lost the games." I don't ever look at it that way,

43:54 especially with Mississippi State.

43:55 If it was Georgia, I would look at it that way.

43:57 You lost You lost close to Texas.

43:59 Okay, you're Georgia.

44:00 That's a loss.

44:01 Tennessee, you're Georgia.

44:02 That's a loss.

44:03 I don't look at Mississippi State the same way.

44:05 So, I'd put him in a B-, maybe even a B.

44:09 But I understand if if the fan base would go C-plus.

44:11 Now, they got a lot to prove this year

44:14 cuz there's a ton of churn on the roster there,

44:16 but it could all be covered up with either development,

44:20 evaluation, or Kamario Taylor going off at quarterback,

44:23 or ideally all of the three,

44:26 in which case Mississippi State's like the surprise of the league.

44:29 So, C-plus, and I will grant you I

44:31 expect pushback on this cuz they're going to be

44:34 There's a Mississippi State fan out there

44:36 that would put an A-minus on him right now.

44:38 But I promise you, sir or ma'am, in Tupelo or Natchez or Hattiesburg,

44:44 what have you, Philadelphia, Yazoo City, I just name them.

44:49 I can assure you that as much as you want to give him an A-minus,

44:53 I received correspondence in the C-minus range.

44:56 So, there would be a wide range, and I had to, you know, average it out.

45:01 So, that's where we are on Jeff Lebby right now.

45:03 Let's move on.

45:04 Happy to have you guys with us if you're watching live,

45:06 if you're listening to the replay,

45:07 or watching the replay, happy to have you with us.

45:09 Just make sure you subscribe to the channel,

45:12 and then five of your friends do the same.

45:14 You know what we got today, Jesse.

45:16 You do know cuz you opened the envelope.

45:19 I don't think I've ever instructed the audience to send us wedding invitations.

45:23 Have I?

45:24 Have I ever told them to do that?

45:26 No, I have not.

45:27 Does it stop our audience from sending us wedding invitations?

45:32 No, it does not.

45:33 And we received one more today.

45:36 Uh we've got a nice stack of summer wedding invitations.

45:41 We throw the fall invitations in the garbage sight unseen.

45:44 I don't even acknowledge those weddings on Saturdays in the fall as happening,

45:47 and I saw I know some of you are being dragged into those against your will,

45:52 and that's between you and God and your spouse,

45:54 but I have nothing to do with it.

45:56 But for our spring and summer wedding crowd, preemptive congratulations.

46:00 I have received a lot of invitations,

46:03 so I assume yours is in the stack if you've sent us one.

46:06 And um for those of you who are on the fence about sending an invitation.

46:13 I don't even publicize the address of this place.

46:15 I have no clue how they find it.

46:17 But if you can find it, go for it.

46:20 It's not my home address.

46:21 If you want a home address, I'll give you Jesse's.

46:23 I'm not handing mine out on the show.

46:25 So, yeah.

46:26 But we got some and I've never I've

46:28 never talked about that publicly on the show.

46:31 So, those trees are going to good use.

46:34 Uh we were not throwing those things away unless they're fall weddings.

46:37 Next up, bold prediction season continues.

46:40 We are 3 weeks in to bold predictions, predictions that you make, not me,

46:46 and predictions that you guys claim you would bet

46:48 your own money on, but money's not on the line here.

46:50 Chalice of supremacy are on the line.

46:52 That's the plural of chalice.

46:54 The rule around here is any of these predictions that rate

46:57 9.5 or higher on the bold prediction scale and hit,

47:01 win you a chalice of supremacy at the end of the year.

47:04 We gave out only three last year.

47:07 And we did like a hundred of these.

47:09 Matthew from Lincoln, Nebraska leads us off tonight.

47:12 He says Indiana finishes the regular season with eight wins or fewer.

47:17 That's your national champion.

47:20 That is Curt Cignetti flames to the rest of college football last year,

47:25 and he's only winning eight this year at most.

47:28 Well, the over/under win total, to give you some frame of reference here,

47:32 over/under win total is 10 and 1/2.

47:35 They lost eight in the draft,

47:37 but they had the number one portal class in the country.

47:40 I am putting a nine on this.

47:43 I think it's unlikely, not impossible,

47:46 because the schedules in college football,

47:48 specifically the Big Ten and the SEC, are what they are today.

47:51 Here's what I've got to do.

47:53 If you're listening on podcast,

47:54 Bradley just put the Indiana schedule up for this year.

47:58 Can I find four losses at least here?

48:00 Well, sure you could.

48:02 You assume Ohio State's got to be one of them.

48:04 I would assume Michigan's got to be one of them at Michigan.

48:08 USC has got to be one of them.

48:10 Look, as high as I am on USC this year, Bloomington, Indiana in November?

48:17 But, yes, I will grant you it could happen.

48:20 And maybe Washington's a surprise team this year

48:22 and Indiana's got to go out there late.

48:24 But, here's what you'll notice if you're looking at this.

48:27 Where are the lose-able games?

48:29 I don't count 1 2 3 4 5.

48:32 I don't count any of their first five games as those.

48:34 And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

48:36 So, we really start in week six or their sixth game.

48:41 And that's at Nebraska.

48:42 So, they run off a string of games that sounds like this.

48:45 At Nebraska, Ohio State, at Michigan, Minnesota, USC, at Washington.

48:50 All due respect to Barry, I'm going to cut it off right there.

48:54 If they lose four games, it's probably coming in this stretch,

48:58 which means they would lose four games over the span of 1 2 3 4 5 6 games.

49:04 So, are they going to go two and four at some point during the season?

49:08 I got a hard time seeing that.

49:09 So, I'mma put it at a nine on the boldness scale.

49:12 What it takes is Josh Heupel just being a turnover machine.

49:16 Or or them really having problems with like complacency

49:20 and stuff that past champions have not been immune to.

49:24 Yeah, that could happen.

49:26 That's hard to forecast, though.

49:28 Next up, ellipsis in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

49:34 Beautiful name.

49:35 The prediction, however, well, I'll just let you be the judge.

49:39 The SEC will have at least five quarterbacks

49:42 finish the regular season with 30 or more passes.

49:46 No, they won't.

49:47 This is a 10.

49:49 Touchdown passes.

49:50 What did I say?

49:51 Passes, they'll probably happen.

49:54 Probably happen.

49:55 All right, ellipsis, apologies.

49:57 Let me reread it though,

49:58 put it back up Bradley cuz we do have to clip this eventually.

50:03 Watch this.

50:04 This is the sausage getting made here.

50:07 Ellipsis from Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

50:10 Beautiful name.

50:11 The prediction, I'll let you be the judge.

50:14 There's no teleprompter in here.

50:15 Uh the SEC will have at least five quarterbacks

50:19 finish the regular season with 30 or more touchdown passes.

50:23 To this I say, no they won't.

50:27 No they will not.

50:28 How do I know that?

50:30 Well, not a single one had 30 TD passes last year, first off.

50:34 Secondly, there were only eight quarterbacks in the entire country that had

50:40 30 or more touchdown passes in the regular season last year.

50:42 Again, none of them from the SEC.

50:45 Uh and this is with me acknowledging, if we look at the Heisman board right now.

50:50 If we look at the Heisman odds at FanDuel,

50:52 nine of the top 20 are SEC quarterbacks,

50:55 but that's that's relative to just what else is out there.

50:58 That's not indicative that oh we got we got five slam-dunk 30-plus

51:03 touchdown passers here and a bunch of these guys are dual-threat guys.

51:07 Chamblee's is just as likely to run it in.

51:09 Arch is just as likely to run it in.

51:10 So, you need these dudes getting a vast

51:13 majority of their touchdown production through the air.

51:16 You need great injury luck and you need all of them to pan out and defense to go

51:21 off a cliff in the SEC in an era

51:24 where defense is making a big comeback nationwide.

51:27 So, this is not happening.

51:29 This is not happening.

51:30 Maybe two of them?

51:32 Maybe?

51:33 That would be a great year by the way.

51:35 So, not five.

51:36 No, ellipsis, not five.

51:37 We're going to give that a 10 on the boldness scale.

51:41 Next up, let's head to Notre Dame.

51:44 Actually, let's head to Wildwood, Missouri.

51:46 That's where Tyler is, but he's got a prediction about Notre Dame.

51:50 Notre Dame loses their seventh game

51:52 in the month of September under Marcus Freeman.

51:57 Nine and a half on the boldness scale.

52:00 Now, it is true in the interest of big J journalism and full disclosure,

52:06 our investigation reveals that yes,

52:08 Marcus Freeman has lost to Northern Illinois in September once upon a time.

52:12 Yes, Marcus Freeman has lost to Marshall in September once upon a time.

52:17 But that that was yesteryear.

52:19 Okay, this is Marcus Freeman 2.0.

52:22 This is Notre Dame 2.0.

52:24 That sort of thing just doesn't happen anymore.

52:26 We used to have dinosaurs here.

52:27 We don't anymore.

52:28 So, consider that Marshall game a Stegosaurus.

52:31 It is gone.

52:32 The concept of it is gone.

52:34 And let me tell you what you're left with.

52:36 Wisconsin, Rice, Michigan State, and Purdue.

52:40 One of those has to beat Notre Dame,

52:42 aka my preseason number one team in the country.

52:45 Is it going to be Wisconsin?

52:48 19 and a half point underdog right now Wisconsin is to Notre Dame.

52:53 Probably be 21 by kickoff.

52:55 That's at Lambeau Field, by the way.

52:57 Is it going to be Wisconsin?

53:01 Do I acknowledge the week two game?

53:03 Yes, I do.

53:04 Rice Rice is heading to South Bend,

53:07 Indiana for what can only be described as an early season mercy killing.

53:12 And so, that's not where it's going to happen.

53:14 Week three and week four are Notre Dame Michigan State and Notre Dame Purdue.

53:21 Michigan State and Purdue each have over under win

53:24 totals of three and a half this year at FanDuel.

53:27 Notre Dame's not losing a game in September.

53:31 Notre Dame may not lose a game, period, but if they do,

53:34 it's much more likely to be November than September.

53:38 September's not happening.

53:39 So, I'm going to put a nine and a half on that one.

53:42 And lastly, Colin in Friendswood, Texas.

53:47 Houston wins 11 games and makes an appearance in the Big 12 Championship.

53:51 This is my kind of bold prediction cuz I'm very high on Houston.

53:55 And you didn't say they have to win the Big 12.

53:57 They just have to appear in the conference title game.

53:59 So, the over under win total here is only 7 and 1/2.

54:03 They've got the fourth best odds to win the conference,

54:07 but they went 10 and 3 last year.

54:09 They are top 20 in returning production.

54:11 They have a bottom eight strength of schedule

54:14 according to our in-house metrics at least.

54:16 So, they're a solid springboard candidate as we would call them.

54:20 So, winning 11 games is within the realm of possibility.

54:25 Making the Big 12 Championship game takes care of itself if they win 11 games.

54:30 I am only putting a nine on this.

54:32 That is how confident I am that Houston's

54:35 going to have a pretty good year this year.

54:37 11 wins, we'll see, but I feel pretty good about Houston.

54:42 So, that's a nine.

54:43 They're watching us in Gilbert, Arizona, Charlotte,

54:46 North Carolina, and Moulton, Alabama, and Clay, Alabama.

54:51 I marked one off for some reason, so we'll acknowledge both.

54:54 Appreciate you guys being tuned in.

54:57 And you're probably tuned in for opinions and entertainment,

55:00 fun, and all that sort of thing.

55:01 And to those of you who I just described,

55:05 prepare to be slapped in the face with a cold, hard hand of science.

55:11 Every year, we go through the NFL draft

55:13 and we see all these teams that made the playoffs.

55:16 They litter the first round with all these draft picks and then

55:19 they restock the cupboards and it's like that again the next year.

55:24 But class is in session.

55:26 We have class on Sunday night here at Pate State.

55:29 And it's not an opinion class.

55:31 Okay, it's not a philosophy class.

55:33 This is hardcore science.

55:35 What if I told you we don't really need to play the season?

55:39 We already know who's going to play in the national championship game.

55:42 Would you be interested?

55:43 Yes, you would.

55:44 Follow me here.

55:45 Again, not my opinion, science.

55:48 The past 3 years, 75% of the final four teams

55:52 in the playoff went on to be top five in first-round draft selections.

56:00 Let me state it again.

56:02 If you were in the final four of the playoff,

56:05 you were 75% of the time about to go on to be

56:10 one of the top five teams in first-round draft selections.

56:13 So, not so shockingly,

56:15 strong correlation between having the best players in the country

56:18 and making the final four in the playoff.

56:20 That all makes sense so far.

56:22 Okay.

56:23 But, here's what you're probably thinking.

56:25 What does that have to do with this upcoming year's college football playoff?

56:29 Because the draft is going to happen after the playoff.

56:32 So, how are we supposed to know who's going to get drafted?

56:34 How are we supposed to know how many teams

56:36 are going to have how many first-round draft picks?

56:38 That's where the science comes into play in the form of mock drafts,

56:42 and we got several of them.

56:44 We have accumulated, or rather acquired,

56:48 an accumulation of first-round mock drafts.

56:51 Cooper Petagna's on the hook over CBS.

56:54 Jordan Reed at ESPN, he's on the hook tonight.

56:57 Dane Brugler from The Athletic.

56:59 Brandon Donahue from Sharp Football.

57:01 We have taken their first-round mock drafts,

57:04 and we have wadded all of them up respectfully,

57:06 because we had to put them in a blender.

57:08 We turned the blender on.

57:12 Minute or so.

57:13 Turned it off, poured it out, took the average of those mock drafts,

57:18 and what it provided us was pretty shocking, Jesse.

57:20 Well, not really if you follow recruiting and portaling,

57:23 but it was pretty shocking in that it's crystal clear,

57:27 according to science, not us,

57:29 who's going to play for the the championship this year.

57:31 Now, I know some of you have kids at home and some of you

57:34 yourselves are kids at heart and you don't want this spoiled for you.

57:38 So, if you don't want to know who's going

57:40 to play in the national championship game this upcoming year,

57:44 I rarely tell you to do this, but this is probably where you want to skip ahead.

57:48 So, I'm giving you a fair warning on spoiler alerts here.

57:52 3 2 1.

57:54 If you're still here, I assume that means you want to know who's going to play

57:58 in the national championship game this year

57:59 as proven scientifically by first round mock drafts.

58:04 Two teams rose above the pack.

58:07 One of those teams is the University of Texas and their counterpart

58:12 in the national championship game will be the University of Oregon.

58:16 Texas in the mock draft scientific community right now

58:19 averages 4.25 first round draft selections for this upcoming

58:24 cycle and Oregon is close behind with 3.75

58:28 first round picks on average this upcoming cycle.

58:31 Texas versus Oregon, the all-time nightmare college football national

58:37 championship game for the can't crowd,

58:39 the cannot crowd cuz for everyone who tells

58:41 me Steve Sarkisian cannot win a national championship game,

58:45 I've got someone over here on the other side of the fence that tells me,

58:47 "Oh yeah, well what about Dan Lanning?

58:49 He can't win one either." And it is a fact that if they play each other,

58:53 unless there's like a a white flag parlay situation early fourth quarter,

58:57 someone's got to win a national title.

59:00 So, that's going to be the match-up.

59:01 Now, if you happen to think that maybe Cooper Petagna screwed up,

59:08 maybe Jordan Reid screwed up cuz that's all that could happen here.

59:11 At this point, if it's not Texas versus Oregon,

59:13 it's because either players, coaches, officials, or mock drafters screwed up.

59:18 Certainly not on us.

59:19 We want the credit.

59:20 We don't want the blame.

59:22 But, you might be wondering in the very,

59:25 very remote chance that it's not Texas versus Oregon.

59:29 Who were some of the other college football playoff favorites?

59:32 How does their projection in the first round mock draft average look?

59:37 Well, LSU had about two and a half players on average.

59:41 Bama and Notre Dame two and a quarter.

59:44 Georgia's right there at two.

59:46 Ohio State, man.

59:47 Ohio State and Indiana.

59:49 Well, with good reason, all their guys just got taken,

59:52 so they're going to have younger rosters this year.

59:54 Ohio State, Indiana one and three quarters.

59:57 Is Ohio State's icon green, Jesse?

1:00:00 What happened to them?

1:00:02 What Is that on Did Arthur Smith bring that a new color palette in?

1:00:07 Got a new SID up there.

1:00:08 Jerry Emig, did he take the color palette with him?

1:00:11 Anyway, Bradley put that old graphic back up.

1:00:13 I wasn't even done yet.

1:00:15 Throw me back the slider with the the averages on it.

1:00:18 Ohio State and Indiana were at 1.75.

1:00:20 Miami Ole Miss about 1.5 per piece.

1:00:25 Uh South Carolina is in this.

1:00:28 So, if you're listening over there and and all

1:00:31 hope is lost over in Myrtle Beach, no, it's not.

1:00:33 First off, you're in Myrtle Beach in May.

1:00:35 Secondly, South Carolina's right there with the Miamis

1:00:39 and Indianas and Ohio States of the world.

1:00:41 In fact, hear me tonight, not according to me,

1:00:44 but according to the Cooper Petagnas and Jordan Reeds

1:00:48 and Dane Brugler's and Brendan Donahues of the world,

1:00:52 essentially a quote from them, South Carolina and Miami are the same thing.

1:00:58 Essentially, that is a quote from them as evidenced in their mock draft.

1:01:02 Uh Texas A&M one total, yet they have the eighth best odds to win it all.

1:01:09 Michigan and USC sitting right there at about one a piece on average.

1:01:12 Oklahoma and Texas Tech a little bit lower than that.

1:01:15 Tennessee and Penn State goose egg.

1:01:17 Jesse, is that true?

1:01:19 Going to have no guys drafted?

1:01:22 Rocco Baggs is to dunk on every one of y'all.

1:01:27 If and look, this is a big if,

1:01:30 but if you feel like disagreeing with science, be my guest.

1:01:34 How has that worked out in history?

1:01:35 But if you want to disagree with science, you can go over to FanDuel right now

1:01:39 and you can bet against everything I just said.

1:01:42 You can you can absolutely bet Tennessee

1:01:44 to win the national championship if you want to.

1:01:46 And if it pans out for you, what a story you'll have to tell.

1:01:51 What a story you'll have to tell.

1:01:52 FanDuel, the exclusive odds provider of the show, we appreciate them.

1:01:56 Talked a lot with FanDuel this week and we do

1:01:58 every week cuz we're in pretty constant communication with them.

1:02:01 I mean, it won't be too long from now

1:02:03 that I'll be hitting FanDuel Mike up saying,

1:02:05 "Hey, putting together the JP poll for tonight.

1:02:08 Out of curiosity, what would Minnesota versus I don't know,

1:02:13 Florida State be on a neutral field?" Who's

1:02:16 to amongst us hasn't ever wondered about that matchup?

1:02:19 Let's wrap the show with this.

1:02:21 The truth teller series is what we do this time

1:02:23 of year where we just pick a certain topic

1:02:25 or a person or whatever and just kind of tell

1:02:27 the truth about them as best we know the truth.

1:02:30 And we we spun the the wheel tonight and it landed on Lane Kiffin.

1:02:35 But specifically, you know, Lane Kiffin over the last few years,

1:02:39 Lane Kiffin even over the last year,

1:02:41 that's like a whole book, a whole novel, if you will.

1:02:44 The move from Ole Miss to LSU, what's the truth about all that?

1:02:47 Well, I think the truth about Lane in general historically

1:02:51 is going to have to be split into two categories.

1:02:53 So, you got two compartments, if you will.

1:02:55 You got the one compartment, which is Lane Kiffin the person,

1:02:57 and I don't think many people are changing their minds at this point.

1:03:00 Everyone's got a pretty fully formed opinion

1:03:02 on what they think of Lane Kiffin the person.

1:03:05 Now, most of you don't know Lane Kiffin the person,

1:03:08 but you know of Lane Kiffin the person.

1:03:10 So, you got your opinion on that.

1:03:12 Let's table that for a second.

1:03:13 Then over here in this compartment, you've got Lane Kiffin the football coach.

1:03:18 That one is still very much evolving.

1:03:21 One of them is set, the other one I think very much is not.

1:03:25 So, Lane Kiffin at LSU has the chance to become a legend.

1:03:29 Has the chance to become an icon.

1:03:32 He has the chance to do at LSU what Nick Saban did,

1:03:35 what Les Miles did, and Ed Orgeron found a way to do it.

1:03:38 Brian Kelly, this millennium's the only guy who

1:03:39 didn't find a way to win a championship there.

1:03:42 And if he wins a championship there,

1:03:44 then it will affirm everything that they believed about

1:03:46 him that made them pursue him in the first place.

1:03:50 And also, Lane coming in there was it was part

1:03:53 it was like the face of this this big churn.

1:03:58 There was a ton of change down there,

1:04:01 but there was also a ton of looking around the country and realizing,

1:04:04 "Oh, that's the way college football works now." Well, game on.

1:04:09 And Lane's going to be the face of it.

1:04:12 Now, if he falls flat on his face, well, that's one thing.

1:04:16 And you know, at that point, okay, well, he still had his years at Ole Miss.

1:04:20 Uh he still lasted a lot longer than most

1:04:23 people thought he would when he got tarmacked at USC.

1:04:26 Like, no no one Who in the world would have ever predicted him

1:04:29 all these years later to be the head coach at multiple SEC stops,

1:04:33 ending with LSU, which is a premier job in college football.

1:04:36 Uh but even if he fails there,

1:04:38 he will have accomplished more than most people thought he would if you

1:04:41 go back to that period in time where he got fired at USC.

1:04:44 But that's not the fun thing to talk about.

1:04:45 The fun thing to talk about is if Lane Kiffin gets it rolling at LSU,

1:04:50 which he's almost certain to do to some degree,

1:04:53 then you will not find probably a more entertaining,

1:04:57 must-watch, just fun team to follow.

1:05:01 I think about like Shea Dixon,

1:05:03 who's who's just been on the LSU beat for a long time.

1:05:07 And I think about Shea Dixon being able to cover Lane Kiffin's LSU.

1:05:13 Uh but going back to the decision for just

1:05:16 a second cuz that was kind of you know,

1:05:18 the genesis for why we talked about this tonight.

1:05:23 Everybody's got an opinion, it seems.

1:05:27 Or go back to the time it was happening.

1:05:28 You remember December?

1:05:31 Ole Miss, LSU, Lane Kiffin, and Ole Miss is headed towards the playoff.

1:05:39 We talked about it for several weeks on this show.

1:05:41 I mean, November was a crazy time last year.

1:05:44 Cuz LSU has already fired Kelly.

1:05:46 You know they've circled Lane Kiffin.

1:05:48 Everyone knows they've circled Lane Kiffin.

1:05:50 Lane Kiffin knows they've circled Lane Kiffin.

1:05:51 Ole Miss knows they've circled Lane Kiffin.

1:05:53 And Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin are in the thick of a playoff run.

1:05:57 And then it was, well, what do you do?

1:05:59 What do you do if you're laying and you're going to make the playoff?

1:06:02 What do you do if LSU says, "Hey, we need you down here.

1:06:06 Signing day is coming up right after the regular season wraps.

1:06:09 We don't care if you make the playoff.

1:06:10 If you're taking our job,

1:06:11 you're going to be down here coaching this team, running this program.

1:06:15 We're not paying you to stay up in Oxford,

1:06:17 Mississippi." Hey, what are you doing?

1:06:18 Everyone had an opinion.

1:06:20 And I remember pretty consistently saying then,

1:06:23 as I will say now that we know how the story ended,

1:06:26 nobody else's opinion mattered.

1:06:28 His mattered.

1:06:29 So, like some people out there looked at it and said,

1:06:32 "It's foolish to think LSU is a significant step up from Ole Miss in today's

1:06:38 college football because of what portal and NIL have done to flatten things out.

1:06:42 Like if Kurt Cignetti can walk into Indiana

1:06:45 and do what he's done over Ohio State,

1:06:47 certainly you could duplicate those kind of results in the modern day

1:06:51 at Ole Miss over LSU." And that's a fairer stance to have.

1:06:57 But Lane didn't have that stance is the only point.

1:07:00 So, it didn't even matter if I thought it.

1:07:03 I'm not the one who's being pursued.

1:07:05 Lane Kiffin was.

1:07:07 So, he obviously looked at it and said, "Even today,

1:07:12 it is a significant jump up in caliber of job

1:07:16 to go to LSU as opposed to remaining at Ole Miss." Well,

1:07:19 that was the long and short of it.

1:07:20 And then, you can be mad at him, which a lot of people will be.

1:07:23 You can choose to not forgive him, which a lot of people won't.

1:07:26 You could be an outsider and just look and say,

1:07:29 "I don't know if I would have done that." Or "Oh,

1:07:30 absolutely I would have done that." Doesn't matter.

1:07:33 Didn't matter what I thought or you thought or anything like that.

1:07:36 That's the truth of it.

1:07:37 Now, it is also true that he could very much come to regret the decision.

1:07:42 That happens all the time.

1:07:43 That happens all the time.

1:07:45 It's also true that we could look back on it 5 years from now and say,

1:07:49 "That's the best decision he could have ever made." That's the fun of it.

1:07:53 We don't know yet.

1:07:56 Oh, that's our show, Jesse.

1:07:57 That's it.

1:07:57 Wow, yeah.

1:07:58 Hour and 8 minutes.

1:07:59 Why wouldn't it be?

1:08:00 Guys, we've got a big week this week.

1:08:03 Two big speaker series stops.

1:08:04 We're actually me and Prez are about to fly out

1:08:06 right after the show tonight and head to one tomorrow.

1:08:09 So, I just strongly encourage you to follow on the socials @JoshPateCFB.

1:08:14 Uh we're going to a couple of places

1:08:16 that it's really fun to see behind the scenes.

1:08:19 One we know very well.

1:08:20 One we don't know so well.

1:08:22 But, we soon will.

1:08:24 Appreciate you so much.

1:08:25 We'll be back Thursday.

1:08:26 We'll have a couple of speaker series uploads between now and then.

1:08:29 Until then, for director Bradley, producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate.

1:08:33 Take care.

1:08:33 Let's have a good start to the week and God bless.