What does a “ceasefire” even mean anymore?
MS NOW
0:00 So despite the United States and Iran trading
0:02 fire last week in the Strait of Hormuz,
0:03 President Donald Trump insisted that the ceasefire is very much still intact.
0:08 Watch.
0:14 Yeah, it is.
0:15 They trifled with us today.
0:18 We blew them away.
0:20 They trifled.
0:21 I call that a trifle.
0:23 I'll let you know when there's no ceasefire.
0:24 You won't have to know.
0:26 If there's no ceasefire, you're not going to have to know.
0:28 You're just going to have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran.
0:33 Now, even as the president tries to downplay these strikes,
0:36 the fact is that shots were fired.
0:38 And this is far from the only instance of this.
0:41 Russia and Ukraine are already accusing each other of violating
0:44 a days-old ceasefire that Trump just announced on Friday.
0:46 In Lebanon, at least 380 people have been killed
0:50 since a ceasefire was announced and extended last month,
0:53 according to the United Nations.
0:54 In fact, Israel carried out a deadly wave of strikes in Lebanon just yesterday.
0:58 And, of course, in Gaza,
1:00 at least 800 people, including women, children and journalists,
1:03 have been killed due to Israeli
1:05 strikes since their ceasefire began last October.
1:09 This, according to their health ministry.
1:11 So how much weight does the word ceasefire even and hold
1:15 when that's clearly not what is happening on the ground?
1:18 Joining us now, retired General Wesley Clark.
1:20 He's a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander.
1:23 General Clark, it's great to have you back on the show.
1:26 Breakdown for us from a military perspective,
1:29 what actually constitutes a break in a ceasefire?
1:34 Well, that's a really interesting question because,
1:36 you know, technically a ceasefire is nobody shoots.
1:40 But there are political reasons for saying that it's a ceasefire going on.
1:44 The president has domestic political reasons
1:47 for saying this with the War Powers Act.
1:49 And maybe if you can maintain the fiction of a ceasefire,
1:54 it facilitates third parties doing mediations and negotiations.
1:58 So there may be some advantages to it.
2:00 I can tell you the U .S.
2:01 military is prepared because it doesn't
2:03 believe that the ceasefire means it's over.
2:06 But there's always a difference between diplomacy and what
2:11 we in the military are thinking about and preparing for.
2:15 General, what do you think these repeated
2:17 violations are doing I THINK THE REAL PROBLEM
2:26 WE'VE GOT HERE FOR THE UNITED STATES AT LEAST IS THAT WE STARTED A WAR.
2:32 WE'RE IN A POSITION WHERE WE WE DID FINE WITH THE AIR ATTACKS.
2:36 THE ISRAELIS TOOK OUT THE OPPOSING
2:38 LEADERSHIP BUT IT'S NOT STRATEGICALLY DECISIVE.
2:42 AND SO WE'RE IN A POSITION WHERE WE'VE EXPENDED A LOT
2:45 OF ORDINANCE THAT WE DON'T HAVE AN EASY REPLINEGEMENT FOR.
2:49 WE'VE DISCOVERED THAT WE CAN'T GET OUR SHIPS
2:52 VERY CLOSE TO THE STRAIGHT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED.
2:55 IT LOOKS LIKE THAT'S GOING TO BE AN EXPENSIVE OPERATION TO TRY TO OPEN IT.
2:59 THE NUCLEAR MATERIALS HAVEN'T BEEN DISPATCHED.
3:03 WE DON'T HAVE THEM AND WE WE DON'T HAVE ANY PHYSICAL PLAN TO GET THEM.
3:08 LOOKS LIKE THAT WOULD BE A VERY TOUGH MILITARY OPERATION.
3:10 AND SO THERE'S A GLOBAL FUEL CRISIS EMERGING.
3:16 THE CLOCK IS TICKING AGAINST IT'S A SORT
3:19 OF MUTUAL PAIN INFLICTED BETWEEN US AND IRAN.
3:24 IT LOOKS LIKE ACCORDING TO THE CIA THAT IRAN CAN WITHHOLD I'M NOT SURE WE CAN.
3:35 GENERAL, THIS WAR HAS UNLEASHED CHAOS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
3:40 AND IT'S OBVIOUSLY HAD a ripple effect around the world.
3:43 But specifically, how has the war challenged and tested the security guarantees
3:50 that America has made with our regional partners and allies in the GULF?
3:55 WELL, IT HAS SHOWN THAT THE SECURITY GUARANTEES REALLY WEREN'T VERY EFFECTIVE.
4:01 NOW, WE DIDN'T REALLY COORDINATE AND CONSULT
4:04 WITH OUR ALLIES BEFORE THE WAR BEGAN.
4:06 I KNOW THERE'S AN EXCUSE FOR WE WERE GOING TO DO IT BY SURPRISE,
4:10 WE DIDN'T WANT INFORMATION TO LEAK OUT, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.
4:13 BUT THE POINT IS, I THINK WE SHOULD HAVE
4:15 FOUND A WAY TO CONSULT WITH THEM, WE DIDN'T.
4:17 THEY WEREN'T QUITE PREPARED.
4:20 AND PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID HE DIDN'T EXPECT RETALIATION AGAINST THEM.
4:23 WELL, MOST OF US DID EXPECT RETALIATION AGAINST THEM
4:25 IF THE SHOOTING WAR STARTED AND THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED.
4:30 AND THERE'S BEEN some redeployment of assets.
4:35 The Israelis put Iron Dome into the Emirates.
4:38 The Ukrainians came in with some drone-killing technology.
4:42 And, you know, the Saudis are defending THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT U .S.
4:52 SECURITY GUARANTEES.
4:54 SO IF YOU'RE A LEADERSHIP IN THE GULF STATES,
4:56 YOU'RE ASKING YOURSELF, WHAT'S COMING NEXT,
5:01 CAN YOU TRUST THE UNITED STATES, WILL THEY CONSULT WITH US THE NEXT TIME,
5:06 WHAT'S THEIR NEXT STEP AND WHAT'S THE VALUE OF THE SECURITY GUARANTEES
5:10 THAT WE IN THE GULF states have paid hundreds of millions of dollars for.
5:15 General, Trump said on Friday that Russia and Ukraine
5:19 had agreed to his request for a ceasefire
5:23 from Saturday through Monday to mark victory
5:25 day which is Russia's celebration marking the defeat
5:29 of Nazi Germany I'm curious do you
5:31 think that this purported pause in firing benefits
5:35 Russia more than it does Ukraine precisely because
5:39 of that celebration yes I do think it benefits Russia more than it does Ukraine
5:44 and besides the Russians really didn't support the ceasefire
5:48 in terms of their other activities in Ukraine
5:50 now the truth is right now Ukraine has
5:52 a moment of on the battlefield and and when you have the momentum you need
5:59 to press forward and so Ukraine had been
6:03 doing that the ceasefire was an effort by Mr.
6:07 Putin to block it while he does some reorganization of his forces perhaps
6:12 and then yes there was a small
6:15 celebration in Moscow but Ukraine is moving forward
6:19 with its drone attacks it's setting up a no movement zone a kill zone going
6:26 many kilometers in front of its front line positions it's a new FORM OF WARFARE,
6:31 AND IT'S TAKING EFFECT AGAINST THE RUSSIANS.
6:33 GENERAL CLARK, I WANTED TO ASK YOU A QUESTION ABOUT THE CEASE
6:37 FIRE AND HOW PERHAPS IT'S BEING EXPLOITED BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN,
6:41 CERTAINLY FROM THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE,
6:43 PETE Texas in a congressional testimony,
6:45 a justification that this administration does not need to go
6:49 and seek congressional authorization under the War Powers Resolution
6:54 or the War Powers Act because it's a ceasefire and it
6:58 automatically resets the 60 days as a result of that ceasefire.
7:04 That's his legal explanation.
7:07 You're a military guy.
7:09 Is that how you understand the ceasefire?
7:11 Is that how you understand the war
7:14 powers resolution to act that in this ceasefire,
7:16 the 60-day clock to get congressional authorization resets?
7:21 Well, that wouldn't have been the way it was taught
7:23 to me and the way I read it at the time.
7:25 But it is, you know, the commanders look to lawyers,
7:28 the uniform code of military justice,
7:30 the judge, the general system and so forth for their guidance.
7:34 So really, this is a political question.
7:37 And the question is, then what's Congress going to do about it?
7:40 If they think it falls outside the scope of the law,
7:45 then Congress has action to take.
7:47 They can cut off funding.
7:49 This is what happened 70-some odd years ago
7:53 in the case of the secret bombing in Laos.
7:57 Congress cut off funding.
7:59 Congress can do that.
8:00 But Congress and that's going to be interpreted to us by the lawyers.
8:18 And for larger questions like this, you have to go to the politics.
8:24 So we don't want our military guys deeply involved in the politics.
8:29 We want our congressmen, our senators to do the politics.
8:33 Let us worry about what we should do militarily.
8:37 We're in a very tough military position right
8:39 now with and we're going to stop that retaliation.
8:55 And going against the energy infrastructure is
8:58 not necessarily going to result in Iran saying,
9:01 oh, okay, let's open the Strait of Hormuz.
9:04 So we've got to be planning what are we going
9:07 to do WE WANTED TO PRY OPEN THE STRAIGHT OF ORMOUZE.
9:10 WE SENT THREE DESTROYERS IN.
9:11 THEY TOOK WE TOOK FIRE, WE RETURN FIRE.
9:15 WE'RE GOING TO DO THAT AGAIN AND AGAIN
9:17 AND AGAIN UNTIL WE ELIMINATE THE IRAQI IRANIAN
9:20 ASSETS AND ARE WE GOING TO THAT'S WHAT
9:25 THE MILITARY GUYS ARE THINKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW.
9:28 AND THEY'RE HOPING TO GET THE RIGHT GUIDANCE FROM WHAT WE CALL THE SUITS.
9:35 GENERAL WESLEY Clark, thanks so much for your time tonight.