What does a “ceasefire” even mean anymore?

What does a “ceasefire” even mean anymore?

MS NOW

0:00 So despite the United States and Iran trading

0:02 fire last week in the Strait of Hormuz,

0:03 President Donald Trump insisted that the ceasefire is very much still intact.

0:08 Watch.

0:14 Yeah, it is.

0:15 They trifled with us today.

0:18 We blew them away.

0:20 They trifled.

0:21 I call that a trifle.

0:23 I'll let you know when there's no ceasefire.

0:24 You won't have to know.

0:26 If there's no ceasefire, you're not going to have to know.

0:28 You're just going to have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran.

0:33 Now, even as the president tries to downplay these strikes,

0:36 the fact is that shots were fired.

0:38 And this is far from the only instance of this.

0:41 Russia and Ukraine are already accusing each other of violating

0:44 a days-old ceasefire that Trump just announced on Friday.

0:46 In Lebanon, at least 380 people have been killed

0:50 since a ceasefire was announced and extended last month,

0:53 according to the United Nations.

0:54 In fact, Israel carried out a deadly wave of strikes in Lebanon just yesterday.

0:58 And, of course, in Gaza,

1:00 at least 800 people, including women, children and journalists,

1:03 have been killed due to Israeli

1:05 strikes since their ceasefire began last October.

1:09 This, according to their health ministry.

1:11 So how much weight does the word ceasefire even and hold

1:15 when that's clearly not what is happening on the ground?

1:18 Joining us now, retired General Wesley Clark.

1:20 He's a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander.

1:23 General Clark, it's great to have you back on the show.

1:26 Breakdown for us from a military perspective,

1:29 what actually constitutes a break in a ceasefire?

1:34 Well, that's a really interesting question because,

1:36 you know, technically a ceasefire is nobody shoots.

1:40 But there are political reasons for saying that it's a ceasefire going on.

1:44 The president has domestic political reasons

1:47 for saying this with the War Powers Act.

1:49 And maybe if you can maintain the fiction of a ceasefire,

1:54 it facilitates third parties doing mediations and negotiations.

1:58 So there may be some advantages to it.

2:00 I can tell you the U .S.

2:01 military is prepared because it doesn't

2:03 believe that the ceasefire means it's over.

2:06 But there's always a difference between diplomacy and what

2:11 we in the military are thinking about and preparing for.

2:15 General, what do you think these repeated

2:17 violations are doing I THINK THE REAL PROBLEM

2:26 WE'VE GOT HERE FOR THE UNITED STATES AT LEAST IS THAT WE STARTED A WAR.

2:32 WE'RE IN A POSITION WHERE WE WE DID FINE WITH THE AIR ATTACKS.

2:36 THE ISRAELIS TOOK OUT THE OPPOSING

2:38 LEADERSHIP BUT IT'S NOT STRATEGICALLY DECISIVE.

2:42 AND SO WE'RE IN A POSITION WHERE WE'VE EXPENDED A LOT

2:45 OF ORDINANCE THAT WE DON'T HAVE AN EASY REPLINEGEMENT FOR.

2:49 WE'VE DISCOVERED THAT WE CAN'T GET OUR SHIPS

2:52 VERY CLOSE TO THE STRAIGHT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED.

2:55 IT LOOKS LIKE THAT'S GOING TO BE AN EXPENSIVE OPERATION TO TRY TO OPEN IT.

2:59 THE NUCLEAR MATERIALS HAVEN'T BEEN DISPATCHED.

3:03 WE DON'T HAVE THEM AND WE WE DON'T HAVE ANY PHYSICAL PLAN TO GET THEM.

3:08 LOOKS LIKE THAT WOULD BE A VERY TOUGH MILITARY OPERATION.

3:10 AND SO THERE'S A GLOBAL FUEL CRISIS EMERGING.

3:16 THE CLOCK IS TICKING AGAINST IT'S A SORT

3:19 OF MUTUAL PAIN INFLICTED BETWEEN US AND IRAN.

3:24 IT LOOKS LIKE ACCORDING TO THE CIA THAT IRAN CAN WITHHOLD I'M NOT SURE WE CAN.

3:35 GENERAL, THIS WAR HAS UNLEASHED CHAOS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

3:40 AND IT'S OBVIOUSLY HAD a ripple effect around the world.

3:43 But specifically, how has the war challenged and tested the security guarantees

3:50 that America has made with our regional partners and allies in the GULF?

3:55 WELL, IT HAS SHOWN THAT THE SECURITY GUARANTEES REALLY WEREN'T VERY EFFECTIVE.

4:01 NOW, WE DIDN'T REALLY COORDINATE AND CONSULT

4:04 WITH OUR ALLIES BEFORE THE WAR BEGAN.

4:06 I KNOW THERE'S AN EXCUSE FOR WE WERE GOING TO DO IT BY SURPRISE,

4:10 WE DIDN'T WANT INFORMATION TO LEAK OUT, BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.

4:13 BUT THE POINT IS, I THINK WE SHOULD HAVE

4:15 FOUND A WAY TO CONSULT WITH THEM, WE DIDN'T.

4:17 THEY WEREN'T QUITE PREPARED.

4:20 AND PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID HE DIDN'T EXPECT RETALIATION AGAINST THEM.

4:23 WELL, MOST OF US DID EXPECT RETALIATION AGAINST THEM

4:25 IF THE SHOOTING WAR STARTED AND THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED.

4:30 AND THERE'S BEEN some redeployment of assets.

4:35 The Israelis put Iron Dome into the Emirates.

4:38 The Ukrainians came in with some drone-killing technology.

4:42 And, you know, the Saudis are defending THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT U .S.

4:52 SECURITY GUARANTEES.

4:54 SO IF YOU'RE A LEADERSHIP IN THE GULF STATES,

4:56 YOU'RE ASKING YOURSELF, WHAT'S COMING NEXT,

5:01 CAN YOU TRUST THE UNITED STATES, WILL THEY CONSULT WITH US THE NEXT TIME,

5:06 WHAT'S THEIR NEXT STEP AND WHAT'S THE VALUE OF THE SECURITY GUARANTEES

5:10 THAT WE IN THE GULF states have paid hundreds of millions of dollars for.

5:15 General, Trump said on Friday that Russia and Ukraine

5:19 had agreed to his request for a ceasefire

5:23 from Saturday through Monday to mark victory

5:25 day which is Russia's celebration marking the defeat

5:29 of Nazi Germany I'm curious do you

5:31 think that this purported pause in firing benefits

5:35 Russia more than it does Ukraine precisely because

5:39 of that celebration yes I do think it benefits Russia more than it does Ukraine

5:44 and besides the Russians really didn't support the ceasefire

5:48 in terms of their other activities in Ukraine

5:50 now the truth is right now Ukraine has

5:52 a moment of on the battlefield and and when you have the momentum you need

5:59 to press forward and so Ukraine had been

6:03 doing that the ceasefire was an effort by Mr.

6:07 Putin to block it while he does some reorganization of his forces perhaps

6:12 and then yes there was a small

6:15 celebration in Moscow but Ukraine is moving forward

6:19 with its drone attacks it's setting up a no movement zone a kill zone going

6:26 many kilometers in front of its front line positions it's a new FORM OF WARFARE,

6:31 AND IT'S TAKING EFFECT AGAINST THE RUSSIANS.

6:33 GENERAL CLARK, I WANTED TO ASK YOU A QUESTION ABOUT THE CEASE

6:37 FIRE AND HOW PERHAPS IT'S BEING EXPLOITED BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN,

6:41 CERTAINLY FROM THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE,

6:43 PETE Texas in a congressional testimony,

6:45 a justification that this administration does not need to go

6:49 and seek congressional authorization under the War Powers Resolution

6:54 or the War Powers Act because it's a ceasefire and it

6:58 automatically resets the 60 days as a result of that ceasefire.

7:04 That's his legal explanation.

7:07 You're a military guy.

7:09 Is that how you understand the ceasefire?

7:11 Is that how you understand the war

7:14 powers resolution to act that in this ceasefire,

7:16 the 60-day clock to get congressional authorization resets?

7:21 Well, that wouldn't have been the way it was taught

7:23 to me and the way I read it at the time.

7:25 But it is, you know, the commanders look to lawyers,

7:28 the uniform code of military justice,

7:30 the judge, the general system and so forth for their guidance.

7:34 So really, this is a political question.

7:37 And the question is, then what's Congress going to do about it?

7:40 If they think it falls outside the scope of the law,

7:45 then Congress has action to take.

7:47 They can cut off funding.

7:49 This is what happened 70-some odd years ago

7:53 in the case of the secret bombing in Laos.

7:57 Congress cut off funding.

7:59 Congress can do that.

8:00 But Congress and that's going to be interpreted to us by the lawyers.

8:18 And for larger questions like this, you have to go to the politics.

8:24 So we don't want our military guys deeply involved in the politics.

8:29 We want our congressmen, our senators to do the politics.

8:33 Let us worry about what we should do militarily.

8:37 We're in a very tough military position right

8:39 now with and we're going to stop that retaliation.

8:55 And going against the energy infrastructure is

8:58 not necessarily going to result in Iran saying,

9:01 oh, okay, let's open the Strait of Hormuz.

9:04 So we've got to be planning what are we going

9:07 to do WE WANTED TO PRY OPEN THE STRAIGHT OF ORMOUZE.

9:10 WE SENT THREE DESTROYERS IN.

9:11 THEY TOOK WE TOOK FIRE, WE RETURN FIRE.

9:15 WE'RE GOING TO DO THAT AGAIN AND AGAIN

9:17 AND AGAIN UNTIL WE ELIMINATE THE IRAQI IRANIAN

9:20 ASSETS AND ARE WE GOING TO THAT'S WHAT

9:25 THE MILITARY GUYS ARE THINKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW.

9:28 AND THEY'RE HOPING TO GET THE RIGHT GUIDANCE FROM WHAT WE CALL THE SUITS.

9:35 GENERAL WESLEY Clark, thanks so much for your time tonight.

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