Professor Pape REACTS: Hegseth Says 'Red, White Blue' DOME Over Hormuz Strait

0:00 Joining us now is Professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago.

0:03 He also has the escalation trap Substack where he'll be

0:06 doing a live briefing on May 10th at 5:00 p.m.

0:10 Eastern time with the escalation trap, which we always look forward to.

0:14 Link down in the description that you can go ahead and sign up for.

0:16 Professor, thank you so much for joining us.

0:18 As always, we appreciate you.

0:19 Uh yeah, thank you very much for having me.

0:22 Thank uh well, let's go ahead and start, sir,

0:24 with all of these developments in the Strait of Hormuz.

0:27 Initially, we have this announcement from the Secretary

0:30 of Defense this morn- or sorry, Secretary of War this morning,

0:34 Pete Hegseth, about Operation Freedom to try

0:37 and to guide ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.

0:40 Not to get them back in, but at the very least, in the initial time, out.

0:44 Here is his announcement about a red, white, and blue dome.

0:47 Let's take a listen.

0:48 As a direct gift from the United States to the world,

0:52 we have established a powerful red, white, and blue dome over the strait.

0:57 American destroyers are on station supported by hundreds of fighter jets,

1:01 helicopters, drones, and surveillance aircraft providing 24/7

1:05 overwatch for peaceful commercial vessels.

1:10 Except Iran's, of course.

1:12 Which is why our ironclad blockade remains in full effect as well.

1:16 In fact, six ships tried to run the blockade

1:20 out of Iranian ports as Project Freedom commenced,

1:23 and they were all turned around.

1:26 What do you make of this Project Freedom, sir, of this red,

1:29 white, and blue dome and this rhetoric now coming from the Pentagon?

1:33 Uh this is a high-risk bet that the Trump administration is making,

1:38 and it's a bet they really cannot afford to lose.

1:41 Uh the goal here is fairly straightforward.

1:44 Um what you are seeing is an effort by the United States to run the blockade.

1:49 They're trying to break Iran's grip

1:52 on the Strait of Hormuz by literally running ships

1:56 through the blockade and then the bet is and this is the risk, the gamble.

2:01 The bet is that Iran will not fight back.

2:05 That Iran will not shoot back.

2:08 That's the issue here.

2:09 There's a certain lane, that lane is identified and what you are already seeing

2:16 is that Iran yesterday signaled

2:19 quite clearly with essentially demonstration shots

2:23 and even warning shots across the bow of our of our US

2:27 Navy ships that it is going to fight back.

2:31 So, the Trump administration has not lost the bet yet,

2:36 but it is right on the edge of that and if

2:40 in fact as we're hearing from Secretary Hagseth this morning,

2:44 we're going to run that blockade,

2:47 there is an extremely good chance that Iran is going to respond

2:51 and then this will mean if they hit just one ship,

2:55 one US vessel, I don't mean the South Korean, I don't mean the UAE.

2:59 If they hit a US vessel here,

3:03 that is probably going to trigger what you are

3:06 hearing Secretary Hagseth with all of that other force,

3:09 the spiral then of escalation and that's really what

3:13 we're on the on the precipice of here this week.

3:17 It's I'm sorry to say that this is what the escalation trap looks like.

3:22 It's not folks linear.

3:24 So, a lot of people think that that it should be

3:27 happening day by day and just simply progressing day by day.

3:31 History, we need to understand, we're watching history in motion now and when we

3:37 read about history in the past of the past events,

3:41 that kind of smooths out the lumpiness of history.

3:45 History is lumpier and that's why it feels lumpier, you know, not linear,

3:51 but the truth is, when we write about these events,

3:54 it it's going to seem pretty linear.

3:57 Yeah.

3:57 Good Yeah.

3:58 I want to get your reaction to another clip from that press conference.

4:00 This one from General Keane, because to your point, yesterday after our show,

4:05 we were watching these strikes from Iran on the UAE,

4:07 the damage to South Korean ship, and we're saying,

4:10 "Oh boy, this may be we may be looking at, you know,

4:12 back to total war." Um Trump administration seems to have

4:16 taken the decision to downplay the significance of those attacks.

4:20 That trend continued with General Keane.

4:22 Here, let's take a listen to that.

4:23 The map shows the examples and samples

4:25 of Iranian attacks against commercial vessels in the Strait,

4:29 as well as the Gulf of Gulf of Oman,

4:32 and up in the Arabian and Gulf Arabian Gulf.

4:35 Since the ceasefire was announced,

4:36 Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times, and seized two container ships.

4:42 And they've attacked US forces more than 10 times, all below the threshold of uh

4:48 of restarting major combat operations at this point.

4:52 You can also see the group of tankers and cargo

4:54 vessels in the US blockade line, as I mentioned.

4:57 As a result of Iran's indiscriminate attacks across the region,

5:02 there are currently 22,500 mariners embarked on more than 1,550

5:10 commercial vessels trapped in the Arabian Gulf, unable to transit.

5:15 So, the key line there, he says all of those attacks were quote below

5:18 the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point.

5:22 What do you make of this type of language?

5:24 Uh so, this is what I was anticipating when

5:27 I said uh an attack on a US Navy ship.

5:30 And also, this is what I published yesterday morning on the Substack before

5:34 all this really unfolded is the key threshold here for the Trump administration

5:41 [clears throat] is likely going to be Iran attacking US Navy ships directly,

5:46 hitting one of those ships.

5:49 Now, of course, they're not oblivious to the attack on the UAE,

5:53 and they're not going to be oblivious to attack on the tankers,

5:56 but in order for this to go forward,

5:58 if we're really going to have this operation run,

6:01 the United States can't accept damage to uh

6:04 the ships and can accept damage to our allies.

6:07 The real where this will get America's attention

6:10 for real is when those sailors are are killed.

6:13 Uh the first time those ships are hit,

6:16 the first time there's a fire on those ships,

6:18 the first time there's actually dead sailors on those ships,

6:22 this is going to be uh as much as we're paying attention to this now,

6:26 you maybe have special sessions here at Breaking Points.

6:29 This is going to create a lot more consternation inside of America.

6:34 Um and so that's why I was specific about the threshold and General Keane,

6:38 I you know, he said it today,

6:40 but it's not a surprise that a military US military, the leading officer,

6:45 would have the number one threshold be don't attack my troops.

6:50 Right.

6:50 And yet, you know, he did say that they had been attacked.

6:52 It's just that, you know, thankfully, they haven't been killed.

6:55 Yeah, that's right.

6:56 It's really about that breaking through.

6:58 Iran, for it what it said was it didn't uh

7:01 it was a warning set of shots it fired yesterday.

7:04 Now, we don't really know.

7:05 We're not in Iran's head in the in the decision loop.

7:08 So, we don't know if they meant to hit a US ship and missed,

7:12 or if it was a warning shot,

7:13 but this is going to become clearer in the in the next

7:16 day or two or this week, very, very likely.

7:20 Uh it really is the case the Trump

7:22 administration has effectively If you play chess,

7:25 what they've done is they've put a pawn in the middle of the board,

7:28 and they've dared the other player to take it when the other

7:32 player has a lot of pieces to go and take it,

7:36 and if it doesn't take that pawn, then more is coming.

7:39 You see what I mean?

7:40 That's the kind of gambit that is uh that's going on, but it's

7:44 a very high risk gambit and it's risky for US troops

7:48 and it's really going to be risky for the world's economy because

7:51 the kind of damage coming is going to be much more longer-term damage.

7:57 Right.

7:57 Sticking to that, sir,

7:59 after the announcement of Project Freedom in Iran, a ship captain,

8:03 an Indian ship captain who is trapped in the Straits of Hormuz reacted and said,

8:07 "There's no way that I'm still going to be going through

8:10 this." Let's take a listen to that and we'll get your reaction.

8:12 My ship is stranded here in Persian Gulf hours since the war started.

8:16 So, so far we are safe and you know Yes,

8:21 we have witnessed various uh various missiles or explosions

8:26 and we heard so many attacks on merchant ships.

8:29 Thankfully, our ship is keeping safe.

8:31 We have a clear written instruction from our company office,

8:35 do not pass the Strait of Hormuz.

8:38 My company would would never take this decision

8:41 at the moment until unless everyone assess the situation.

8:44 They know that it is clearly safe to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

8:49 At the moment, there is no, you know,

8:51 concrete information regarding the safe passage through Strait of Hormuz.

8:55 None of the ships will, you know,

8:58 try to become hero and they will show their courage to pass through Strait

9:02 of Hormuz until unless it is declared officially that it is safe to transit.

9:09 So Yes, it it is going to take time.

9:11 So, nobody would dare at the moment pass through Strait of Hormuz.

9:16 So, the captain there saying that he

9:18 would not go through until hostilities are over.

9:21 So, not really reacting positively or to the reaction of the US that's right.

9:26 This is completely to be expected

9:29 and and you've heard me talk about this earlier.

9:31 It's so civilians here are are not signing up as soldiers in a war to be ordered

9:38 by Donald Trump to take the risk of death

9:43 for whatever project President Trump comes up with.

9:47 Now, the military is a different story.

9:48 They have to obey those orders,

9:51 but civilians both in the United States and around the world,

9:54 they just simply don't.

9:55 And by the way, they have they have they have other reasons.

9:58 This is not simply I don't think it's quite right

10:01 to call them all cowards the way President Trump does.

10:04 I mean, the fact of the matter is he did

10:06 not he dodged the the draft during the Vietnam War.

10:11 So, this is not a simply a matter of I just don't think this is right.

10:15 People who are civilians have not signed up here.

10:18 They're not conscripted and they have families.

10:21 They have other people that depend on them.

10:23 So, if they die, there's consequences to this.

10:26 And what you're seeing with that captain here is

10:29 they're they're just simply not going to do it.

10:31 I think even if their companies order them to do it,

10:33 they they may just simply not obey those orders.

10:36 This is a lot to ask people to die to get oil through a strait in the world.

10:43 This is that's that's a lot to die I mean,

10:46 that's not really a goal worth anybody dying for.

10:49 Yeah, agreed.

10:50 Yeah, and the companies are not going to be anxious to risk their assets there,

10:53 which are incredibly expensive.

10:55 These massive massive ships, massive tankers.

10:59 What do you see as the pressures that are likely to build over

11:03 the coming days that could lead to the next step in this conflict?

11:07 Yeah, so I think you're already have see saw the pressures last week.

11:12 We talked a bit about this on on the breaking points last week that I was on.

11:16 I published again, I'm I'm I'm traveling a lot

11:19 on these airplanes now to do all these mega podcasts,

11:22 which gives you lots of time believe it not.

11:26 And so, I was explaining and amplifying what

11:29 I said on the on the breaking points podcast.

11:32 So, if you look at the pressures on Donald Trump,

11:34 it's not just the pressure of what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz.

11:38 You see the disintegration of NATO right in front of our eyes.

11:42 This is what we were talking about last week with Chancellor Merkel,

11:45 the leader of Germany,

11:47 embarrassing the United States on the world stage in his comments.

11:51 These are quite embarrassing to to President Trump here.

11:55 And then you see Iran is disrespecting President Trump.

12:00 Iran went to Pakistan to negotiate, but not with Americans.

12:04 In fact, the Iranian negotiators left to go

12:06 to Russia before Trump could even get his people there.

12:10 So, this is another big sign of disrespect.

12:12 And then in on May 14th, in just about 10 days,

12:16 you're going to see President Trump is supposed to be meeting with President Xi.

12:19 Well, my goodness gracious,

12:21 the amount of embarrassment here where Trump is a failed

12:25 war going to President Xi almost on bended knee.

12:30 Please do anything to help me a little bit.

12:33 What do you want from Taiwan?

12:34 What can I give you?

12:35 I mean, this is not this is not

12:37 what we would expect out of America's presidency.

12:41 We're supposed to be the strongest country in the world,

12:43 the richest country in the world.

12:45 We're not supposed to be in this groveling position here.

12:48 And this is I'm sure President Trump this must be personally driving him,

12:52 you know, tearing him apart inside.

12:55 Here but it's it's also bad any president would be facing this.

13:00 Even a new president would not enjoy this by any stretch.

13:04 So, these are really I think what was

13:06 underneath why Trump forced the issue, why he started.

13:10 Notice it was last Thursday that he had the meeting for the new options.

13:15 This is after the disrespectful Iranian behavior, disrespectful German behavior.

13:21 You're seeing around the world America's position in the world disintegrating.

13:27 And that is happening in real time.

13:30 On your show I've said NATO is dead.

13:32 We're just writing its obituary and we're just

13:35 adding paragraphs to that obituary week by week.

13:38 And look, I'm I'm just calling it as I'm seeing it and this helps

13:42 us to understand why the trap I talk about is so gripping.

13:47 I'm not saying Trump prefers war.

13:49 That's not what's going on.

13:51 He just prefers losing less.

13:54 That's the problem here.

13:55 And by the way, Iran is also stuck in this trap.

13:58 The idea that Iran is going to lose this new found superpower

14:03 of controlling the Strait of Hormuz without threatening to kill an American?

14:08 I mean, seriously?

14:10 I think this is just not right.

14:11 They're both trapped in the escalation trap, both sides.

14:15 And what is unfortunate here that's it's worse that it's a tragedy,

14:19 really, is the gas price for Americans it's gas prices.

14:24 We're going to blow through $5 gas.

14:27 Here in Chicago it's already $4.99 here where I got my gas.

14:31 This is going to be $6 here in a month.

14:33 I mean, we're blowing through this and it's

14:35 going to have dramatically big consequences as we

14:39 go forward inside of our country and this could lead to violence in the fall.

14:44 This this is not a good situation we're in, but this is the problem.

14:49 The president will not accept that big L.

14:52 Yeah.

14:53 Well, and we've obviously found your framework

14:54 to be incredibly useful and very predictive,

14:57 which is why we continue to have you

14:58 back to help us understand, you know, as things really appreciate it.

15:01 You more than anybody else.

15:03 It's really been an a real honor here because you

15:05 allow and I get all these emails here from people.

15:08 They really appreciate these like weekly updates.

15:11 You you see what I mean?

15:12 Because that's what we're able to do and that helps

15:15 them to make to make real sense of it.

15:17 I I wish, you know, I'm I'm hoping we'll have some

15:21 updates and then you'll probably stop bringing me on but that's okay.

15:23 I'm I'm okay with that.

15:24 [laughter] I got an actual mic here but I'm but I'm just

15:28 saying I'm trying to be positive here and I hope that could happen.

15:32 Yeah.

15:33 Well, but so so let me ask you, what would be some events that could

15:36 occur that you think would falsify your framework?

15:38 Where if such and such were to happen, you'd look at it and say,

15:41 I got to go back to the drawing board.

15:43 I'm I'm missing something here.

15:44 There was some flaw in my analysis.

15:46 Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

15:47 And so I've I've said this before.

15:49 It's like the inverse of my indicators.

15:51 So I keep telling people that the key thing to do is

15:54 try to ignore the rhetoric and look at the behavior of states.

15:58 And one of the things that would be a thing that would be

16:01 going in the other direction would be if President Trump were to withdraw,

16:06 say, all the carriers.

16:08 So let's let's just start with the carriers.

16:10 We now have three carriers.

16:12 One of the three was supposed to be there to help rotate the other two.

16:15 Well, that hasn't happened yet.

16:17 But still, let's say that we he pulls back the three

16:20 carriers here and says he's going to go do Cuba or something.

16:24 Well, that would be that would mean we're not going into the escalation trap.

16:29 He's marching out.

16:30 If he would also move out hundreds

16:32 of the aircraft that he has stationed in the region,

16:35 that would mean we're marching out.

16:37 If he would withdraw troops, the Marines.

16:41 So we've you know, famously moved 10,000 Marines.

16:44 So if we withdraw those Marines,

16:47 and I mean put them back at Camp Pendleton or back in Japan,

16:51 I don't just mean we declare they're they're gone.

16:54 I mean they physically move.

16:56 That's those are really key indicators and that would

17:00 tell me we're on the track of de-escalation, not stuck in the escalation trap.

17:06 All right.

17:06 Well, Professor Pape, as always, we appreciate your analysis.

17:09 Everybody go check out the escalation trap Substack and that would

17:12 enable you to get access to that live briefing this Sunday.

17:16 Thank you so much.

17:16 Great to see you again, sir.

17:17 Thank you very much.

17:18 And also, I love the tough questions here.

17:20 This is the way we should be doing

17:22 this, and I really appreciate your and keep keep them coming.

17:26 We need to have serious conversations here.

17:29 Thank you.

17:29 I agree.

17:30 Our pleasure.

17:30 Thank you very much, sir.

17:31 Appreciate it.

17:32 Okay.

17:32 Bye-bye.

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