Trump Demands Deal From Tehran | Balance of Power: Early Edition 5/8/2026

0:06 ANNOUNCER: LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.,

0:13 THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER WITH JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ.

0:17 PRESIDENT TRUMP SOME DOMESTIC WINS, BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME QUESTIONS.

0:23 THE U.S.

0:25 SAYS IT IS EXPECTING TO RECEIVE A RESPONSE BACK FROM IRAN TO ITS LATEST PEACE

0:31 PROPOSAL AS SOON AS TODAY AFTER SKIRMISHES

0:33 IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TEST THE FRAGILE CEASE-FIRE.

0:36 WE WILL HAVE MORE THIS HOUR WITH TYLER

0:39 KENDALL AND ANALYSIS FROM THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE.

0:43 DOMESTICALLY THERE WAS REASON TO CELEBRATE FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP

0:46 AND REPUBLICANS AS A STRONGER NONFARM PAYROLLS REPORT HIS HAND

0:50 DOWN AND THE SUPREME COURT STRIKES DOWN THE CONGRESSIONAL

0:53 MAP THAT WOULD HAVE FAVORED DEMOCRATS GOING INTO THE MIDTERMS.

0:58 WE WILL HAVE MORE ON THAT AS WELL AS JIM SENA,

1:01 A FORMER CAMPAIGN MANAGER FOR OBAMA.

1:04 LET'S BEGIN IS ALWAYS A CHECK ON THE MARKET

1:06 REACTING TO THAT STRONG JOBS DATA ON THIS FRIDAY.

1:13 INDEED, THE S&P 500 INDEX KEEPING AN EYE ON INTEL SHARES.

1:22 HEADLINE ON THE BLOOMBERG,

1:24 APPLE AND INTEL HAVE REACHED APRIL LUMINARY CHIPMAKING AGREEMENT.

1:31 APPLE UP BY 1.6% BUT INTEL KEEPS ON GOING.

1:46 S&P 500 INDEX, DOW INDUSTRIALS DOWN 28 NOW,

1:53 A DROP OF 1/10 OF 1% AND SWINGING BETWEEN GAINS AND LOSSES.

2:01 NASDAQ 100 INDEX ALSO AT A RECORD, 1.4%.

2:07 ALL OF THIS WITH THE VIX JUST ABOVE 17.

2:10 THE 10 YEAR, FOUR POINT 36%.

2:14 THE 30 YEAR, 4.94%.

2:18 GOLD IS UP $28 AN OUNCE, UP 6/10 OF 1%.

2:23 WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE.

2:26 A BARREL OF BRENT, 101.43.

2:31 CLOUDFLARE IS TUMBLING AFTER THE COMPANY SAID IT WOULD

2:36 SLASH JOBS AND PROJECTED REVENUE THAT FALL SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS.

2:40 DOWN IT NOW BY 23.9%.

2:50 AKAMAI UP NOW BY 23%.

2:53 THAT ACCORDING TO THE WALL STREET JOURNAL RIGHT NOW, UP BY JUST ABOUT 15%.

3:02 THAT IS OUR BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH.

3:06 KAILEY: CHARLIE PELLETT, THANK YOU VERY MUCH, INDEED.

3:11 FASCINATING TO SEE THE REACTION OR PERHAPS LACK

3:13 OF REACTION IN THE OIL MARKET TO WHAT HAS BEEN

3:16 A RETURN KINETIC ACTIVITY IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

3:17 WITH THE EXCHANGE OF FIRE WE SAW BETWEEN THE U.S.

3:19 AND IRAN.

3:20 BOTH SIDES MAINTAINED THAT DID NOT VIOLATE

3:24 A CEASE-FIRE EVEN IF IT WAS HOSTILE ACTIVITY.

3:28 WE ARE SEEING RELATIVELY MODEST UPWARD PRESSURE ON OIL, JUST ABOUT 1%.

3:32 JUST ABOUT 00 PER BARREL AT THE MOMENT.

3:36 THIS SEEMS TO BE MARKET STILL CLINGING TO THE IDEA

3:40 OF A POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC BREAKTHROUGH IN THE PEACE PROCESS.

3:45 THAT SAID, NO INDICATION YET FROM IRAN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THEY

3:48 ARE LIKELY TO ACQUIESCE TO THE PROPOSAL

3:53 THAT WAS THIS ONE-PAGE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING,

3:55 THOUGH MARCO RUBIO DID SAY THAT BY THE END

3:57 OF TODAY WE COULD SEE THE IRANIAN RESPONSE TO THAT.

4:01 SO HOW MUCH WILL THAT RESPONSE BE COVERED BY THE ACTIVITY WE SAW IN MR.

4:06 HORMUZ YESTERDAY?

4:07 PRESIDENT TRUMP DESCRIBED IT SIMPLY AS A LOVE TAP OR A TRIFLING.

4:13 THEY TRIFLED WITH US TODAY.

4:15 WE BLEW THEM AWAY.

4:17 YOU DON'T HAVE TO KNOW.

4:18 IF THERE IS NO CEASE-FIRE YOU ARE NOT GOING TO HAVE TO KNOW.

4:21 YOU CAN JUST LOOK AT ONE BIG GLOW COMING OUT OF IRAN.

4:26 THEY BETTER SIGN THAT AGREEMENT FAST.

4:29 KAILEY: SO ARE THEY WILLING TO DO SO?

4:32 WE DO NOT YET KNOW THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION.

4:36 FOR WHAT WE DO KNOW, LET'S TURN OUT THE TYLER KENDALL,

4:37 ARE WASHINGTON RESPONDENT WAS HERE WITH ME IN HER DECEASED YEAR.

4:42 DO WE KNOW AT THE VERY LEAST WHAT FORM IRAN'S RESPONSE WILL TAKE?

4:48 IS THIS GOING TO BE A TWITTER POST FROM SOMEONE OR IS THIS SENT TO PAKISTAN?

4:56 OUR RECORDING HAD INDICATED A RESPONSE WOULD COME VIA PAKISTANI MEDIATORS.

4:58 WE KNOW THE WHITE HOUSE HAS BEEN FOR THE COMPANY.

5:02 ABOUT THE ROLE THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING IN HELPING

5:04 TO GET THE CONVERSATION GOING BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES,

5:07 THOUGH THE RHETORIC THAT REFERRED TODAY HAS SO FAR COME

5:10 FROM POSTS ON TRUTH SOCIAL INCLUDING THAT WE HEARD FROM IRAN'S FOREIGN

5:13 MINISTER EARLIER SAYING THAT IRAN ISN'T GOING TO BOW TO ANY

5:16 PRESSURE AS BOTH SIDES APPEAR TO BE RAMPING UP THE STAKES.

5:19 JUST EARLIER TODAY SOME HEADLINES CROSSING THE TERMINAL INCLUDING THAT THE U.S.

5:28 AND INTERCEPTED TWO IRANIAN-FLAGGED VESSELS THAT WERE

5:32 TRYING TO, THEY SAY, AVERT THE U.S.

5:33 BLOCKADE AND IRAN ITSELF IS SAYING THAT IT IS

5:33 SEIZING ADDITIONAL OIL TANKERS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

5:37 THAT IS REALLY WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO, THIS STANDOFF OVER THE CRITICAL WATERWAY.

5:42 WE KNOW THAT THIS MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING THAT IRAN IS

5:46 SUPPOSEDLY REVIEWING AND GOING TO GET BACK TO THE U.S.

5:49 ON THAT FIRST PHASE IS GOING TO BE A GRADUAL REOPENING,

5:53 BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT EITHER OF SIDE— EITHER

5:56 SIDE WANTS TO LET UP THEIR GRIP WHEN IT COMES TO IT.

6:00 KAILEY: SO IF NEITHER SIDE IS REALLY WILLING TO BUDGE ANY MATERIAL WAY,

6:05 WHAT DOES THAT MEAN HERE AT HOMES IN TERMS OF THE POLITICAL

6:07 PRESSURE THAT MAY BUILD FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP TO GET HIM TO REPLACE THAT?

6:14 CLEARLY THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE IS NOT THRILLED IN THE FIRST PLACE

6:17 AND EVERY DAY THAT PASSES BRINGS US CLOSER TO THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS.

6:21 TYLER: WE KNOW THE POLITICAL PRESSURE IS GLOWING INCLUDING THAT IT

6:25 TAKES A LONGER TIME FOR RETAIL GASOLINE PRICES TO COME DOWN.

6:30 WE BASK ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS ABOUT THIS BEFORE,

6:33 IF THEY ARE WILLING TO TAKE ANY ADDITIONAL

6:35 ACTION AFTER BE SEEN IN TAKE A SERIES,

6:38 TRYING TO GET HIGHER ETHANOL CONTENT GASOLINE ON THE MARKET

6:41 AND AS OF NOW WE HAVEN'T HEARD ANY NEW IDEAS AROUND THE ADMINISTRATION,

6:46 THOUGH I WILL POINT OUT SOME REPORTING FROM YESTERDAY

6:49 THAT THIS WHITE HOUSE MAY BE LOOKING AT DRILLING UNDER U.S.

6:54 MILITARY BASES TO HELP GET MORE OIL INTO THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE BECAUSE

6:55 THAT OF COURSE HAS BEEN DRAWN DOWN DURING THIS CONFLICT BUT YOU ARE RIGHT,

6:59 IT IS A POLITICAL ISSUE THAT THE PRESIDENT IS CONTENDING WITH NOW

7:07 WITH THE NATIONAL GAS AVERAGE ABOVE FOUR DOLLARS— $4.50 PER GALLON,

7:12 ITS HIGHEST POINT EVER FOR A SEASONAL HEIGHT.

7:15 LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW UNDER THE LAST ADMINISTRATION DURING

7:18 THE WAR WITH UKRAINE AS THIS ADMINISTRATION LIKES TO POINT OUT,

7:23 BUT THE LAST POINT IS SOME EARLIER REPORTING THIS WEEK

7:25 FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL BUT PRIVATELY SOME OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S

7:28 AIDES ARE GROWING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED THAT REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO PAY

7:31 A POLITICAL PRICE IN NOVEMBER BECAUSE OF THESE HIGHER FUEL COSTS.

7:34 KAILEY: IT BEGS THE QUESTION WHEN CONGRESS COMES

7:37 BACK FROM THE RECESS TAKEN ON THIS WEEK, THEY RETURNED TO WASHINGTON ON MONDAY.

7:40 ARE WE LIKELY TO SEE ANY BEHAVIORAL TO DISTANT TERMS OF THE WILLINGNESS

7:44 TO ACT AS A CHECK ON THE PRESIDENT WERE AUTHORITY HERE?

7:48 TYLER: YOUR GUESS IS AS GOOD AS MINE.

7:54 THERE IS GROWING PRESSURE FROM DEMOCRATS BUT SO

7:55 FAR RECEIVED 10 MORE POWER RESOLUTIONS ULTIMATELY FAIL.

7:59 THIS ADMINISTRATION HAS BEFORE THAT THEY DON'T THINK THERE NEEDS

8:01 TO BE SUCH A RESOLUTION BECAUSE OPERATION THEORY THEY SAY IS DONE.

8:06 BUT I'M REALLY WATCHING FOR IS WHEN THE ADMINISTRATION ASKED SUPPLEMENTAL

8:10 ON THE RELATED TO THIS CONFLICT WE'VE ALREADY GOTTEN THE PENTAGON,

8:15 BUT WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO PUT FORWARD ANOTHER REQUEST AND I

8:17 THINK THAT IS WHERE YOU WILL START TO SEE SOME OF PUBLIC

8:22 AND VOICING CONCERNS ABOUT THE DURATION OF THE CONFLICT AS THEY

8:25 DEBATE WHETHER OR NOT CONGRESS SHOULD

8:26 PROVIDE ADDITIONAL APPROPRIATIONS FOR THE PROCESS.

8:28 KAILEY: TYLER KENDALL, THANK YOU SO MUCH AS ALWAYS FOR YOUR REPORTING.

8:32 AS WE WERE DISCUSSING ON THE POLITICAL PRESSURE,

8:35 THAT ARISE FROM HIGHER GAS PRICES,

8:37 NEW ANALYSIS OF GTMO BIT INDICATES GASOLINE PRICES COULD BE HEADING EVEN HIGHER.

8:42 ANALYSTS SEEN TODAY THERE IS A LEGITIMATE CHANCE THAT U.S.

8:45 GAS PRICES COULD RISE TO FIVE DOLLARS PER GALLON.

8:50 THEY ARGUE BECAUSE REFINERIES ARE PRIORITIZING— AT THE EXPENSE OF OTHER PRODUCTS

8:56 LIKE THE ONES THAT PEOPLE PUT INTO THEIR CARS OR THEIR TRUCKS.

9:02 AND OF COURSE, THAT WOULD MAKE IT EVEN MORE

9:03 POLITICALLY COMPLICATED FOR THE INCUMBENT

9:04 REPUBLICAN MAJORITY HEADING INTO NOVEMBER.

9:06 WE WANT TO GET INTO THE POLITICAL STAKES

9:09 OF THIS, ESPECIALLY AS NOVEMBER BALL ALSO BE COLORED

9:13 BY THE REDISTRICTING FIGHT AND TURNED TO THE FORMER

9:16 CAMPAIGN MANAGER FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA'S 2012 REELECTION CAMPAIGN.

9:18 PREVIOUS WHITE HOUSE DENNY CHIEF OF STAFF AS WELL.

9:23 WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG TV, RADIO, ALWAYS GOOD TO HAVE YOU.

9:28 FOR THE LITTLE CONSEQUENCE THE OF FIVE DOLLARS DOWN?

9:34 WHAT IS THAT $.50 DIFFERENCE POTENTIALLY GOING TO BE?

9:40 IT COULD BE A WHOLE BUNCH OF POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE.

9:44 I JUST SAW SOME NUMBERS SHOWING THAT THE PRESIDENT'S APPROVAL RATING AND MEMBERS

9:47 OF CONGRESS APPROVAL RATING ARE MOVING UP AND DOWN THE PRICE OF GAS.

9:52 IT MAKES SENSE.

9:55 RESEARCH WE DID IN THE OBAMA YEARS SHOWS THAT PEOPLE'S

9:59 VIEW OF THE ECONOMY GETS BAKED IN BY JUNE.

10:02 IF BECAUSE THAT IS A PEOPLE GET THEIR KIDS AT SCHOOL AND GO ON THE ROAD

10:04 WITH THEIR BIG NATION START TO LOOK AT HOW IT ENDS OF THINGS ARE.

10:07 IF YOU ARE SITTING IN JUNE WITH FIVE DOLLAR DANCE,

10:11 YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE A WHOLE BUNCH OF ANGRY SWING VOTERS OUT THERE

10:14 AND I THINK THAT IS A REALLY BIG PROBLEM FOR THE PARTY IN POWER.

10:23 IT'S A PROBLEM FOR ALL PEOPLE BUT ESPECIALLY WHEN

10:25 THE PRESIDENT'S PARTY WITH THIS WAR OF CHOICE IN IRAN.

10:31 I THINK YOU ARE SEEING A WHITE HOUSE VERY FOCUSED ON TRYING

10:33 TO GET THE WAR OVER BECAUSE THEY UNDERSTAND WHAT THE GAS PRICE ISSUE IS

10:36 DOING TO THE PRESIDENT'S APPROVAL RATING AND I THINK THAT IS WHY YOU

10:40 ARE SEEING THE PRESIDENT PUSH SO HARD TO GET A DEAL WITH IRAN.

10:46 KAILEY: I'VE ASKED THIS QUESTION REPEATEDLY AS WE HAVE SEEN HIM MORE

10:49 ADAMANTLY MAKING THE CASE THAT HE WANTS TO SEE THIS WRAPPED UP.

10:51 IF YOU THINK THAT HE COULD BE WILLING

10:55 FOR THE SAKE OF DOMESTIC POLITICS TO MAKE A LESS STRATEGICALLY

10:59 ADVANTAGEOUS DEAL WITH IRAN AND HE MIGHT HAVE OTHERWISE

11:05 AGREED TO HAD WE NOT BEEN APPROACHING A MIDTERM ELECTION?

11:10 WHEN YOU ARE IN THE WHITE HOUSE YOU REALIZE YOU HAVE A WHOLE BUNCH

11:13 OF REALLY BAD DECISIONS IN FRONT OF YOU

11:17 AND RIGHT NOW 179 DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION,

11:20 WHAT HIS POLITICAL TEAM IS LIKELY TELLING HIM IS GET THIS THING OVER QUICKLY.

11:23 IT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER HOW YOU GET IT OVER.

11:26 THE PROBLEM IS THAT CIRCLING SHORT-TERM BALL INSTEAD OF PLAYING LONG-TERM.

11:30 IN THE WHITE HOUSE YOU WANT TO PLAY LONG-TERM.

11:34 IF YOU AGREED TO SOMETHING THAT IS WORSE THAN THE OBAMA DEAL,

11:41 IS GOING TO HAVE HUGE PROBLEMS IN THE WAY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FOR USE,

11:44 AND HIS PARTY SAYING WHY DID YOU PULL US INTO A VERY

11:48 UNPOPULAR WAR TO GET LESS THAN WE HAD WHEN WE STARTED?

11:50 THERE AREN'T ANY GREAT SOLUTIONS HERE.

11:52 IT'S VERY HARD TO GET OUT OF THE THINGS ONCE HE STARTED

11:58 THE OF THE POLITICAL PRESSURE BECOMES THE REASON

12:02 FOR MAKING DEALS HE WOULDN'T ORDINARILY MAKE.

12:05 KAILEY: SO CLEARLY THIS IS QUITE LITERALLY A WAR THAT HE

12:08 IS STILL TRYING TO WIN OR CLAIMS OF VICTORY FROM.

12:12 I'D LIKE TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT A WAR OF A DIFFERENT KIND,

12:16 A EUPHEMISM HERE WHICH IS THE REDISTRICTING WAR WHICH BEGAN IN TEXAS,

12:20 TRICKLED OVER TO CALIFORNIA,

12:21 NOW THEY GONE ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY PUTTING COMING TO VIRGINIA WHERE VOTERS

12:26 DID DECIDE TO APPROVE A NEW CONGRESSIONAL MAP THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN 10-1,

12:31 10 DEMOCRATS, ONE REPUBLICAN, A NET OF FOUR SEATS.

12:32 THE SUPREME COURT TODAY STRUCK THAT DOWN.

12:35 WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE THE PARTY NOW AHEAD OF NOVEMBER?

12:42 NO ONE CAN SAY THIS IS A GOOD MOMENT FOR THE DEMOCRATS,

12:48 LET'S JUST PASS THE PERFECT MATCH FOR THEM

12:50 AND SPENT TENS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO GET

12:51 IT DONE AND THE FACT THAT THE PORT JUST

12:53 DID THIS IS A BAD MOMENT FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

12:55 THE DEMOCRATS WILL ARGUE WE STILL HAVE A SHOT AT REAR OF THE FOUR SEATS,

13:01 SO MAYBE THIS ISN'T AS BAD.

13:03 IT WOULD ALSO POINT OUT THAT IF THE PRECEDENT THAT THE COURT USED TO INVALIDATE

13:11 THIS RULE HAD A TECHNICALITY SAYING THERE

13:16 MUST BE AN ELECTION FROM THIS DECISION, IF WE ARE GOING TO APPLY THAT TO FLORIDA

13:20 WHICH IS WHERE REPUBLICANS ARE NOW APPLYING,

13:22 THEIR COURTS WOULD STRIKE THIS DOWN AS WELL.

13:26 IN GENERAL I THINK THESE REDISTRICTING EFFORTS ARE NOT GREAT FOR THE COUNTRY.

13:28 I THINK THE COUNTRY DOESN'T WANT MORE PARTISAN DISTRICTS,

13:32 THEY WANT MORE PEOPLE TO WORK TOGETHER BUT BOTH

13:35 PARTIES ARE TRYING TO GET CONTROL OF THE U.S.

13:38 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES INSTANT NOW WE'RE GOING

13:41 TO SPEND THE NEXT TWO OR FOUR YEARS

13:43 WITH WHEN I TALKING ON BLOOMBERG RADIO AND TV AND AT ALL OF THESE STATES,

13:45 BLUE AND RED TRYING TO DO THIS.

13:47 WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE IT IS BASICALLY GOING TO BE A WASH AND YOU

13:53 SEE THE KIND OF PREDICTION MARKETS AND OTHER

13:56 ANALYSTS TODAY SAYING EVEN WITH THE VIRGINIA RULINGS,

13:58 THE DEMOCRATS ARE STILL FAVORED TO WIN THE HOUSE.

14:01 BUT WE ARE NOW IN A REDISTRICTING WAR THAT YOU

14:03 AND I ARE GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT FOR YEARS.

14:06 KAILEY: SO WHERE IS THIS ULTIMATELY GOING

14:11 TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY IN TERMS OF POLITICAL POLARIZATION?

14:15 ON THE ONE HAND, I FOR THE ARGUMENT THAT WHAT YOU'RE SEEING

14:17 WITH A LOT OF THESE REPUBLICAN REDISTRICTING EFFORTS IN PARTICULAR IS A WATERING

14:26 DOWN OF MUCH STRONGER DOUBLE DIGITS THAT ARE NOW NOT QUITE AS MUCH

14:33 OF A STRONGHOLD IN TERMS OF THE REPUBLICANS PRESENT IN THAT DISTRICT.

14:37 BUT I'VE ALSO HEARD THAT THIS IS JUST GOING TO CREATE

14:42 MORE HARD R'S AND HARD D'S IN TERMS OF DISTRICTS,

14:45 THERE'S GOING TO BE FEWER SWING DISTRICTS AND THEREFORE IT'S GOING TO LEAD

14:48 TO BASICALLY THAT ALREADY IS A RARE THING ON CAPITOL HILL THESE DAYS,

14:51 MODERATE IN EVEN LESS FREQUENT ELECTED INTO OFFICE.

14:53 WHERE DO YOU COME DOWN ON THAT?

14:59 I COME DOWN ON BOTH SIDES.

15:01 IN THE SHORT TERM, CLEARLY THERE THE LAST WEEK DISTRICTS.

15:06 BUT THE 430 FIVE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS RIGHT NOW,

15:11 A POLITICAL REPORT WHICH IS SORT OF THE BIBLE FOR POLITICAL

15:15 GEEKS LIKE ME SAY THAT ONLY 17 SEATS ARE TRULY TOSSUP SEATS.

15:19 THAT NUMBER USED TO BE IN THE 70'S, 80'S OR 90'S.

15:23 I THINK THAT IS BAD FOR THE COUNTRY.

15:24 OVER THE LONG-TERM I'M HOPEFUL THAT YOUR SECOND SCENARIO IS RIGHT.

15:31 BUT YOU'RE GOING TO SEE MORE DISTRICTS PUT INTO PLAY,

15:36 THAT THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT THAT THE SUPREME COURT DID WAS GOING TO PUT

15:38 A BUNCH OF MINORITY VOTES INTO MANY DISTRICTS

15:40 TO ALLOW MORE DISTRICTS TO BE IN PLACE.

15:44 THAT'S THE ONLY GOOD HOPE OUT OF WHAT

15:47 I THOUGHT WAS A TERRIBLE SUPREME COURT RULING.

15:50 IN GENERAL I THINK THE COUNTRY IS BETTER OFF WITH MORE SEATS BEING PLAYED.

15:55 YOU TEND FOR MEMBERS WHO WANT TO WORK AT BOTH

15:58 WANT TO PUT ASIDE POLITICS AND GET THINGS DONE.

15:59 I DON'T THINK IT IS GOOD AT 400 MEMBERS ONLY

16:03 CARE ABOUT THEIR PRIMARIES AND DON'T CARE ABOUT THEIR GENERAL ELECTIONS.

16:06 KAILEY: AS WE TALK ABOUT THAT SUPREME COURT DECISION ON THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT,

16:13 DATA COURSES COURSE IS WHAT ENABLED TENNESSEE YESTERDAY TO DRAW OUT

16:16 THE ONLY DEMOCRATIC SEAT THAT THAT STATE HAD IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.

16:20 THERE'S A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER SOUTH CAROLINA WOULD BE WILLING TO DO

16:26 THE SAME NUMBER OF NONDEMOCRATIC SEAT IS OWNED BY CONGRESSMAN JIM CLYBURN.

16:32 WHAT THE CONSEQUENCE BE IF WE SAW CLYBURN DRAWN OUT?

16:36 JIM: YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT A GUY WHO

16:39 WAS A FORMER WHIP OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES,

16:41 UNIVERSALLY LOVED BY BOTH PARTIES,

16:43 KNOWN AS ONE OF THE PEOPLE WHO WORK WITH BOTH SIDES TO GET THINGS DONE.

16:49 THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU WERE A NARROW TALKING ABOUT.

16:52 THE LAST THING EITHER PARTY SHOULD WANT IS

16:53 THE LIKES OF JIM CLYBURN OUT OF HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.

16:56 BOTH PARTY SHOULD WANT HIM IN THERE BECAUSE HE WORKED WITH BOTH SIDES TO GET

16:59 THINGS DONE BUT WHEN YOU'RE IN A REDISTRICTING

17:01 MODE OF SCRAMBLING TO EVERY STATE, BOTH PARTIES ARE DOING THIS.

17:04 THE LONG-TERM DAMAGE COULD BE REAL.

17:07 THE OTHER THING IS WE SHOULDN'T HAVE A STATE

17:11 LIKE SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THERE IS NOT ONE DEM,

17:14 WE SHOULDN'T HAVE STAYED WHERE THERE IS NOT ONE REPUBLICAN.

17:16 THERE IS A WAY TO REDISTRICT CALIFORNIA SO THERE IS

17:20 ONLY ONE REPUBLICAN MEMBER OF THE HOUSE OUT OF 55.

17:22 GREAT YOU CAN DO THAT, BUT SHOULD YOU?

17:24 IS THAT THE BEST THING FOR THE FOURTH LARGEST ECONOMY?

17:28 I DON'T THINK SO AND I DON'T THINK YOUR LISTENERS DO EITHER.

17:34 THE COURTS SORT OF CAUSE THIS.

17:38 I HOPE AT SOME POINT THE COURT STEPS BACK AND SAYS WHAT HELL HAVE WE WROUGHT?

17:42 MAYBE WE CAN TAKE A STEP BACK AND FIGURE OUT

17:46 A WAY TO PUT THE GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE HERE.

17:49 KAILEY: ON THE COURTS, A QUESTION AS TO WHY THE ORIGINAL DEMOCRATS

17:53 IN PARTICULAR WILL CHOOSE TO CONTINUE THIS LEGAL FIGHT,

17:56 POTENTIALLY ESCALATE IT TO THE UNITED STATES SUPREME COURT

17:58 AFTER THE STATE SUPREME COURT RULED IT THIS WAY.

18:01 DO YOU THINK THAT WOULD BE A WASTE

18:05 OF RESOURCES GIVEN THE ALREADY SPENT TENS OF MILLIONS

18:07 OF DOLLARS ON THIS IN THE FIRST PLACE

18:09 AND THIS WILL BE A MUCH MORE COMPETITIVE MIDTERM ELECTION,

18:11 IS THAT MONEY BETTER SPENT ELSEWHERE?

18:13 JIM: NEVER A GOOD IDEA TO ASK A POLITICAL

18:17 HACK ABOUT LEGAL ISSUES BUT I THINK THEY HAVE TO.

18:23 THEY HAVE A BUNCH OF DONORS AND 3

18:24 MILLION PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR THOSE WHO ARE SAYING,

18:26 I'M SORRY, WHAT JUST HAPPENED?

18:29 A BUNCH OF SMART LAWYERS WILL GET IN A ROOM TONIGHT AND READ THIS CASE,

18:32 DETERMINE IF THEY HAVE A CASE IN FRONT OF THE UNITED STATES SUPREME COURT.

18:34 MAYBE THIS IS A MOMENT WHERE THE COURT CAN

18:37 PUT THE GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE, AS WE DISCUSSED.

18:39 I THINK YOU'LL SEE THE DEMS DO EVERYTHING THEY

18:44 CAN TO PROTECT 3 MILLION VOTERS WHO JUST NOTED.

18:48 KAILEY: JIM MESSINA, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US ON "BALANCE

18:51 OF POWER." SOME NEW JUST BREAKING FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL,

18:54 PRESIDENT TRUMP IS PLANNING TO FIRE THE FDA COMMISSIONER MARTY MAKARY.

18:57 WE WILL HAVE MORE ON THAT COMING UP ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO.

19:00 JOBS FRIDAY.

19:02 WHEN A JOBS REPORT IT WAS FOR THE SECOND MONTH IN A ROW,

19:05 TOPPING EXPECTATIONS AT LEAST ON THE HEAD NONFARM PAYROLLS NUMBER,

19:10 WHICH FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL CAME IN AT 115,000 JOBS ADDED IN THE U.S.

19:14 ECONOMY COMPARED TO THE AVERAGE ESTIMATE OF JUST 65,000.

19:16 WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY AS WELL IS THE REVISION TO THE MARCH FIGURE.

19:23 MARK REVISE HIGHER MEETING BETWEEN MARCH AND APRIL WE SAW

19:26 THE STRONGEST TWO MONTHS OF JOB GAINS FOR THE U.S.

19:28 ECONOMY GOING BACK TO 2024.

19:29 IT'S A GOOD STORY FOR THE WHITE HOUSE TO SELL.

19:33 CERTAINLY, NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL DIRECTOR KEVIN HASSETT TRIED

19:37 TO DO SO WHEN HE JOINED BLOOMBERG EARLIER TODAY.

19:43 IT IS A RIPROARING JOBS MARKET AND IT'S COMPLETELY CONSISTENT

19:44 WITH WHAT WE SAW WITH THE CLAIMS DATA A FEW DAYS AGO.

19:46 INITIAL CLAIM FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE RIGHT NOW ARE

19:50 THE LOWEST SINCE WE'VE EVER BEEN COUNTING THEM, ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE 1960'S.

19:55 THE JOB MARKET IS REALLY STRONG.

20:00 KAILEY: AS HE DESCRIBES IT AS A RIPROARING,

20:02 IF THAT IS NOT THE PERCEPTION OF THE AMERICAN

20:05 ELECTORATE ABOUT THE JOBS MARKET OR THIS ECONOMY OVER ALL,

20:10 HOW MUCH DOES THE FIRM DATA COMING

20:12 FROM THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS ULTIMATELY MATTER?

20:19 LET'S GET INTO THAT WITH OUR POLITICAL PANEL.

20:20 RICK DAVIS, JEANNE SHEEHAN ZAINO.

20:22 RICK DAVIS IS A PARTNER AT STONECOURT CAPITAL.

20:27 JEANNE IS A VISITING CENTER AT HARVARD SCHOOL ASH CENTER.

20:31 THIS IS A CONVERSATION WE HAD OPTED FOR YEARS NOW INCLUDING

20:35 WHEN WE WERE TALKING ABOUT PRESIDENT BIDEN AND HIS REELECTION EFFORT,

20:38 THE DATA LOOKED OK IN SOME OF THE HARD DATA,

20:40 BUT IT WAS DIFFICULT TO SELL IT TO THE AMERICAN

20:44 PEOPLE WHO FELT VERY MUCH THAT THINGS WERE NOT OK, AT THE VERY LEAST NOT GREAT.

20:48 CAN THIS WHITE HOUSE SO THIS ECONOMY AS RIPROARING RIGHT NOW WHEN POLLING

20:53 SUGGESTS MOST AMERICANS THINK IT IS NOT GOING WELL AT LEAST FOR THEM PERSONALLY?

20:57 RICK: IT IS A BIT OF A TRAP.

21:00 YOU LOOK AT THE MARKET, RECORD LEVELS EVEN TODAY POTENTIALLY.

21:05 THE PRESIDENT LOVES TO TALK ABOUT HOW MUCH MONEY PEOPLE ARE MAKING,

21:09 THE GOLDEN AGE IS TRYING TO USHER IN.

21:14 A HEALTHIER TO-MONTH JOB MARKET IS OBVIOUSLY

21:14 GOING TO FUEL SOME OF THAT RHETORIC.

21:17 THEY DESERVE A LITTLE BIT OF I WOULD SAY A VICTORY LAP.

21:23 FOR A LONG TIME, THIS JOBS MARKET HAS BEEN REALLY FLAT.

21:28 THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE SEEN SOME MOVEMENT

21:32 AND IT IS GOING TO GO TO THEIR BENEFIT.

21:35 IT IS GOOD NEWS IN A VERY BAD NEWS CYCLE OR THIS ADMINISTRATION.

21:36 THAT BEING SAID, YOU ARE 100% RIGHT IN MY VIEW.

21:42 YOU HAVE TO TALK ABOUT THINGS THAT PEOPLE REALLY CARE ABOUT,

21:47 COST OF LIVING, AFFORDABILITY, GAS PRICE.

21:49 IF YOU ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT THOSE THINGS, YOU ARE TALKING PAST VOTERS.

21:55 UNFORTUNATELY FOR THIS ADMINISTRATION, THAT IS THE ONLY STORE THEY HAVE TO SELL.

21:59 KAILEY: ON THE AFFORDABILITY QUESTION, WE WERE TOLD AT THE OUTSET OF THIS YEAR,

22:06 THAT WOULD BE THE FOCUS OF PRESIDENT TRUMP,

22:08 THAT HE WOULD BE TOURING THE COUNTRY TO SPREAD THAT MESSAGE.

22:11 INSTEAD, HE HAS BEEN DEALING WITH AN ONGOING CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

22:15 THAT HAS OBVIOUSLY ADDED TO THOSE VERY

22:18 AFFORDABILITY PRESSURES HE WAS SUPPOSED TO BE ADDRESSING.

22:21 WHEN WE CONSIDER THAT KIND OF NOTION OF THE AFFORDABILITY QUESTION,

22:26 TO WHAT EXTENT DOES A LABOR MARKET THAT DOES APPEAR

22:28 TO BE STABILIZING GRANT HIM SOMETHING OF A POLITICAL GIFT?

22:32 JEANNE: IT IS A GOOD DAY FOR DONALD

22:35 TRUMP BETWEEN THE VIRGINIA DECISION AND THESE NUMBERS.

22:42 WE HEARD KEVIN HASSETT OUT THERE TRYING TO SELL IT, RIPROARING.

22:44 I'M NOT SURE THE KIDS LOVE THAT TERM ANYMORE.

22:48 BUT HE IS TRYING TO SELL IT.

22:52 THE PROBLEM IS, PEOPLE NEED TO FEEL IT.

22:54 THAT IS WHERE THE CONSUMER SENTIMENT NUMBERS ARE REALLY DISASTROUS.

22:56 I AM JUST STRUCK BY HOW DIFFERENT THE STORY WOULD

23:02 BE FOR THE ADMINISTRATION IF WE WERE NOT IN THIS WAR

23:08 OF CHOICE IN IRAN THAT HAS TURNED OUT TO BE

23:11 AN ENORMOUS POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEM FOR THIS PARTY AND PRESIDENT,

23:13 NOT TO MENTION THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.

23:18 THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT THE CONSUMER SENTIMENT NUMBERS AS HISTORICALLY LOW,

23:22 DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE PRICE OF GASOLINE,

23:26 AND AS YOU HAVE TALKED ABOUT, WE HAVE THIS J.P.

23:29 MORGAN REPORT SAYING DON'T BE SURPRISED IF THESE NUMBERS GO UP TO FIVE.

23:31 WHEN THE WAR STARTED, WE WERE SAYING,

23:35 I WONDER IF THIS GETS TO 3.50, THEN IT GETS TO FOUR.

23:43 NOW THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT FIVE,

23:45 IT'S A REMINDER EVERY DAY THAT THE AMERICAN PUBLIC,

23:47 ESPECIALLY AS THEY GO ON THEIR SUMMER VACATIONS,

23:50 THE PRICES AT THE PUMP TO DRIVE TO THEIR VACATION,

23:53 THEY CANNOT FLY I, AFFORDABLE AIRLINES ARE SHUTTERING.

23:56 THIS IS ENORMOUSLY NEGATIVELY IMPACTING ON THEM AND WILL

24:02 BE REFLECTED IN THEIR VOTES IN THE FALL.

24:07 KAILEY: RICK DAVIS, I'M SURE YOU ARE SALIVATING

24:09 AROUND THESE COMMENTS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN INDICATOR.

24:13 WHEN YOU SEE THE HEADLINE CROSSES THAT IT FALLS TO A SECOND STRAIGHT RECORD LOW,

24:18 48 .2, WHAT GOES THROUGH YOUR HEAD?

24:21 RICK: IT KINDA BLOWS MY MIND.

24:27 74-YEAR HISTORY OF THE MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX,

24:29 AND TODAY IT IS AT THE LOWEST IT'S EVER BEEN.

24:31 WE HAVE SEEN SOME TOUGH TIMES DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME.

24:34 CERTAINLY WHEN I WAS RUNNING JOHN MCCAIN'S CAMPAIGN IN 2008,

24:38 WE THOUGHT WE WOULD NEVER SEE ANYTHING

24:39 LOWER THAN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL COLLAPSE DATA.

24:42 THIS IS LOWER THAN WHAT PEOPLE WERE

24:47 FEELING BECAUSE OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL COLLAPSE.

24:49 THAT IS EXTRAORDINARY.

24:50 ESPECIALLY AT A TIME WHEN WE ARE JUST

24:52 TALKING ABOUT THE JOB MARKET IS LOOKING ALL RIGHT, RECORD STOCK MARKETS.

24:55 WE DIDN'T HAVE ANY OF THOSE THINGS IN 2008.

25:00 IT IS STILL LOWER.

25:02 AT THE END OF THE DAY,

25:03 I DON'T THINK YOU CAN DENY THE FACT THAT THIS ADMINISTRATION,

25:07 BAD CYCLE BUT CONSUMERS.

25:11 DILATORY US EFFECT ON THE ECONOMY.

25:15 THAT WILL MAKE IT EVEN TOUGHER.

25:16 I AGREE WITH JIM THE SENA,

25:18 VOTER START LOCKING IN IN JUNE BECAUSE THEY ARE ON VACATION.

25:22 IF THEY'VE GOT FIVE DOLLAR GAS PRICES GOING ON VACATION THIS SUMMER,

25:26 THEY ARE GOING TO BE GRUMPY IN NOVEMBER AND I

25:27 THINK THAT IS THE CYCLE WE ARE LOOKING AT.

25:31 KAILEY: JUST QUICKLY ON THAT POINT BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY

25:37 I ALSO SPOKE EXPENSIVELY WITH JIM MUSSINA ABOUT REDISTRICTING,

25:40 TO WHAT EXTENT THIS CARVING OUT MORE REPUBLICAN SEATS

25:43 HAVE AN OFFSETTING EFFECT OF THE KIND OF DOUR

25:45 ECONOMIC SENTIMENT THAT USUALLY WOULD WORK AGAINST INCUMBENTS

25:48 IN A VERY MATERIAL WAY IN A MIDTERM YEAR LIKE THIS?

25:52 I JUST WONDER WHAT KIND OF LOSSES TO THE REPUBLICANS COULD BE LOOKING AT NOW

25:56 AND HOW MUCH WORSE THEY COULD HAVE

25:58 BEEN HAD THEY NOT PURSUED THIS REDISTRICTING EFFORT,

25:59 IF THESE ARE THE KIND OF SENTIMENT FIGURES WE ARE LOOKING AT.

26:04 RICK: IF YOU LOOK AT A COMBINATION OF THE PRESIDENCY

26:12 STORY—— PRESIDENT'S APPROVAL RATING WHICH IS A HISTORIC LOW,

26:16 GEORGE BUSH WITH THE LOWEST AT 34%, DONALD TRUMP IS ONE POINT OFF OF THAT.

26:21 THEN YOU LOOK THE MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX AND OTHER POLLING,

26:25 A LACK OF PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR SOME OF THE MAIN

26:28 EFFORTS LIKE THE IRAN WAR THE PRESIDENT IS DOING,

26:29 YOU ARE REALLY LOOKING AT A TRAIN WRECK.

26:32 SO YES, 2018 COULD BE A SIMILAR CYCLE.

26:36 SURE, LESS COMPETITIVE DISTRICTS BUT WHEN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT PEOPLE WHO WILL

26:46 DIMINISH THE TRUMP EFFECT IN THE LAST ELECTION BY AS MUCH AS 15%,

26:50 YOU ARE TALKING 30 MEMBERS OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY ARE

26:52 GOING TO LOSE THEIR JOBS AND THAT IS JUST MATH.

26:54 THAT'S GOT NOTHING TO DO WITH THE CAMPAIGN ITSELF.

26:58 THAT'S JUST IF THOSE VOTERS DON'T SUPPORT

27:02 DONALD TRUMP'S CANDIDATES THEY ARE GOING DOWN.

27:05 SO YEAH, IT TAKES A LITTLE EDGE OFF REDISTRICTING OF THAT NUMBER BUT IT

27:08 DOESN'T CHANGE THE OUTCOME WHICH IS

27:10 AN OVERWHELMING CHANGE IN CONGRESS FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

27:14 KAILEY: AS RICK MENTIONS PEOPLE LOSING THEIR JOBS I WANT TO COME BACK

27:16 TO THE BREAKING NEWS THAT WE GOT FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL EARLIER THIS HOUR.

27:20 THE JOURNAL IS REPORTING THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS

27:24 PLANNING TO FIRE THE COMMISSIONER OF THE FDA,

27:27 MARTY MAKARY WE UNDERSTAND THERE'S BEEN SOME CONFLICT,

27:30 AND A LOT OF QUESTIONS AROUND HIS DRUG APPROVAL SYSTEM IN PARTICULAR.

27:34 BUT I WONDER WHAT THIS WOULD SEND TO YOU KNOWING THAT THIS WOULD

27:39 BE YET MORE TURNOVER IN THE WIDER HHS UNDER RFK JR.

27:43 WHEN WE'VE ALREADY SEEN THE CDC DIRECTOR OUSTED LAST YEAR,

27:48 THE DEPUTY SECRETARY WENT AS WELL.

27:52 IS THIS AN RFK JR.

27:53 PROBLEM OR IF THIS EMBLEMATIC OF THE KIND OF WIDER TURNOVER

27:55 WE ARE STARTING TO SEE NOW IN THE SECOND TRUMP ADMINISTRATION?

27:59 I THINK IT'S BOTH.

28:00 I THINK IT HAS A LOT TO DO WITH RFK.

28:02 I ALSO THINK IT WOULDN'T BE

28:06 HAPPENING WITHOUT THE PRESIDENT'S APPROVAL, OF COURSE,

28:09 AND IT SPEAKS TO TURNOVER THAT HAPPENS AT THESE TIMES

28:14 BUT I THINK IN PARTICULAR WITH THIS COMMISSIONER,

28:17 THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CONSTERNATION,

28:18 A LOT OF TENSION BETWEEN HIM AND THE WHITE HOUSE ON VARIOUS THINGS.

28:28 IT'S THE VAPING, IS THE ABORTION, THERE WAS A LOT OF FRUSTRATION MANY CAP

28:36 THAT BIDEN ERA MAIL ACCESS IN PLACE, IT'S VACCINES.

28:43 A LITTLE BIT OF WHAT WE SAW IN THE DHS,

28:44 FOR INSTANCE, WHERE THERE HAS BEEN FRUSTRATION AND TENSION.

28:51 SO I THINK ALL OF THAT PLUS INDUSTRY

28:53 PUSHBACK IS COMBINING TO MAKE A SITUATION THAT YEAH, IT SPEAKS TO TURNOVER,

28:59 BUT I ALSO THINK IT IS ABOUT THIS MAHA DOCTOR AND HOW HE HAS RUN THE FDA

29:03 OVER THE LAST YEAR AND RUFFLED MANY FEATHERS

29:05 AND I THINK IT'S COMING HOME TO ROOST.

29:09 KAILEY: RICK, JUST QUICKLY, IS THERE SOMETHING TO BE SAID FOR THE RIFT THAT IT

29:13 APPEARS IS GROWING BETWEEN THE MAHA MOVEMENT AND THE MAGA MOVEMENT?

29:18 RICK: THIS IS A CLASSIC,

29:21 THE PRESIDENT TAKES A SECRETARY LICENSES RUN YOUR OWN AGENCY.

29:25 UNLESS YOU PICK SOMEBODY YOU DON'T LIKE AND THEN I'M GOING TO FIRE THEM.

29:35 MAHA IS BANGING UP AGAINST MAGA AND IT'S INTERESTING BECAUSE

29:39 TRADITIONAL DEMOCRATIC ORGANIZATIONS CAME RIGHT

29:41 OUT OF THE BERNIE SANDERS OPERATION.

29:43 THEY ARE KIND OF IN A TOUGH PLACE BECAUSE

29:45 THEY DON'T WANT TO SUPPORT ANYTHING THAT TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

29:48 IS DOING BUT SOME OF THE FOOD AND HEALTH

29:52 ASPECTS OF THE MOVEMENT ARE APPEALING TO SOME DEMOCRATS.

29:57 SO YOU'VE GOT DEMOCRATS ROOTING FOR CANDIDATES

29:59 LIKE MAKARY AND TRUMP ISN'T BUYING IT.

30:05 KAILEY: RICK DAVIS, THANK YOU SO MUCH

30:08 AS ALWAYS FOR JOINING US AND REACTING AGAIN

30:09 TO THAT REPORTING FROM THE JOURNAL THAT PRESIDENT

30:11 TRUMP IS GETTING READY TO FIRE THE FDA COMMISSIONER.

30:12 WE STILL HAVE MORE AHEAD ON "BALANCE OF POWER.

30:16 WE WILL TURN TO IRAN NEXT.

30:20 RECORD HIGHS FOR U.S.

30:22 EQUITY BENCHMARKS AND OIL DOWN ON A WEEK IN WHICH WE

30:25 SEE REPEATED SKIRMISHES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BETWEEN THE U.S.

30:28 AND IRAN.

30:29 AND EXCHANGING THE FIRE HAPPENING AGAIN FOR A SECOND DAY.

30:33 THE U.S.

30:34 SAYS IT WAS TAKING ACTION AGAINST TWO VESSELS

30:36 THAT WERE TRYING TO VIOLATE THE ONGOING U.S.

30:37 NAVAL BLOCKADE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THAT OF COURSE COMES AFTER

30:44 YESTERDAY'S CENTCOM CONFIRMED THAT THEY ATTACKED IRANIAN

30:46 TARGETS THAT WERE USED TO TARGET U.S.

30:49 DESTROYERS TRYING TO TRANSIT THE STRAIT.

30:52 HOSTILE ACTIVITY AND GET THE U.S.

30:56 SAYS THE CEASE-FIRE IS STILL IN PLACE.

30:58 VENDOR ASSESSMENT, TURN TO COLONEL WAYNE SANDERS.

31:04 IN ADDITION TO BEING A RETIRED COLONEL.

31:06 I WONDER WHAT YOUR READ IS HERE AND I UNDERSTAND YOU MAY TAKE

31:14 ANOTHER MOMENT TO JOIN US BUT IT IS INCREDIBLE TO CONSIDER THE NOTION

31:18 THAT YOU COULD HAVE AN EXCHANGE OF FIRE WHICH IRAN SAID DID VIOLATE

31:23 THE CEASE-FIRE AND STILL HAVE YOU SAYING THAT THERE IS STILL A TRUCE IN PLACE.

31:29 PRESIDENT TRUMP WHEN ASKED BY JOURNALISTS YESTERDAY

31:30 SUGGESTED THAT SIMPLY THIS WAS A LOVE CAP.

31:33 HE SAID THE U.S.

31:35 WAS JUST BEING TRIFLED WITH AND THAT WE

31:36 WOULD ALL KNOW IF THE CEASE-FIRE WAS OVER,

31:38 HE SAID HE RUN WITH THE LIT UP RED IF THAT WAS THE CASE.

31:43 THE QUESTION IS WHAT THIS CONDUCTIVITY MEANS

31:46 THE ONGOING DIPLOMATIC PROCESS AT THE U.S.

31:49 DID JUST THIS PAST WEDNESDAY SUBMIT A ONE-PAGE MEMORANDUM

31:52 OF UNDERSTANDING TO IRAN AND WE ARE STILL AWAITING IRAN'S PROPOSAL,

31:57 THE SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO SAYING IT COULD COME

32:00 AS SOON AS TODAY WHEN HE SPOKE TO REPORTERS IN ITALY EARLIER.

32:06 WE ARE EFFECTING A RESPONSE, WE'VE NOT RECEIVED THAT YET.

32:09 PERHAPS THAT WILL COME.

32:10 THERE SYSTEM IS STILL HIGHLY FRACTURED AND A BIT DYSFUNCTIONAL AS WELL.

32:17 I HOPE IT'S A SERIOUS OFFER, I REALLY DO.

32:20 KAILEY: SO LET'S DIG INTO THE DIPLOMATIC PORTION

32:22 OF THIS BEFORE WE GET TO THE MILITARY PORTION WITH WAYNE WHO IS JOINING US

32:27 FROM THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE WHERE SHE IS A SENIOR FELLOW.

32:29 SHE'S ALSO THE AUTHOR OF THE SUB STACK.

32:32 WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG TV RADIO.

32:35 I WONDER WHAT YOU ARE ANTICIPATING IN TERMS OF IRAN'S RESPONSE,

32:42 IF YOU EXPECT IT TO BE A POSITIVE ONE GIVEN THE ACTIVITY

32:46 WE'VE SEEN IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

32:50 SEPARATE FROM THE ACTIVITY I THINK

32:51 THE SUBSTANCE HAS BEEN AT LEAST PURPORTEDLY NOTED

32:54 BY THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THAT THIS MEMORANDUM

32:57 OF UNDERSTANDING IS SAID TO BE A ONE-PAGER.

33:04 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTED ON 14 POINTS.

33:07 A LOT OF IT HAS TO DO WITH THE COUNTRY'S CONTROVERSIAL NUCLEAR PROGRAM,

33:10 THE ONE THAT PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP HAD SAID WAS OBLITERATED LAST SUMMER.

33:13 THE REASON I'M BRINGING THIS UP, A LOT OF THE POINTS ARE SAYING IRAN

33:19 CAN BASICALLY NOT HAVING NUCLEAR PROGRAM AT ALL,

33:21 ZERO ENRICHMENT, SOUGHT— SHUTTING DOWN ITS NUCLEAR FACILITIES,

33:25 HANDING ANY HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM OUTSIDE OF THE COUNTRY.

33:30 THIS IS REALLY A STUPID QUOTE FOR THE IRANIANS.

33:33 THEY INVESTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS INTO THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

33:34 THEY HAD THEIR NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS KILLED OVER THE YEARS AND THEY HAVE

33:42 HAD TWO WARS AND NOW THESE GROWING CALLS FROM HARDLINERS IN TEHRAN SAYING,

33:45 IF WE HAD A NUCLEAR WEAPON,

33:47 WE WOULDN'T HAVE HAD THESE WARS TO BEGIN WITH BECAUSE ONE WOULD HAVE TURN A WAR.

33:52 THAT WILL BE THE STICKING POINTS FOR THE IRANIANS.

33:55 I'M NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE TRUMP

33:58 ADMINISTRATION GETTING A RESPONSE THEY ARE HOPING FOR.

34:02 KAILEY: ESPECIALLY AS THE WASHINGTON POST REPORTED YESTERDAY THAT THERE

34:07 IS NEW CIA ANALYSIS THAT INDICATES IRAN CAN WITHSTAND THIS U.S.

34:10 NAVAL BLOCKADE FOR ANOTHER THREE OR FOUR MONTHS

34:12 BEFORE IT STARTS TO FEEL REAL ECONOMIC PAIN.

34:19 IS IT NOT JUST THE TIME WHERE IRAN MAY BE WILLING

34:20 TO MAKE CONCESSIONS LIKE ON THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM AS YOU SUGGEST?

34:24 WILL THE PRESIDENT ULTIMATELY HAVE TO WAIT THIS OUT A LITTLE LONGER?

34:26 HOLLY: UNFORTUNATELY, YES.

34:31 EVEN YOUR OWN OUTLETS REPORTING,

34:33 THEY WERE SAYING THERE WERE A CHINESE CARGO PLANES

34:35 GOING INTO THE COUNTRY EVERY THREE OR FOUR DAYS REPORTEDLY.

34:41 IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC

34:44 HAS ONE OF THE BEST SANCTIONS EVASIONS PLAYBOOK GLOBALLY.

34:46 SO MUCH SO, WHEN THE UKRAINE WAR STARTED IN 2022

34:53 AND RUSSIA WAS BEING SANCTIONED ON A MULTILATERAL FRONT,

34:57 THEY HAD RUSSIAN BUSINESSMEN FLYING INTO TEHRAN TO LEARN THEIR WAYS.

35:03 I THINK THEY ARE WILLING TO FEEL THAT PAIN, IN MANY WAYS,

35:08 AMBLE ALONG LIKE A ZOMBIE REGIME LIKE IT'S BEEN DOING FOR YEARS.

35:11 THEY ARE REALLY COUNTING ON PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP TO BLINK FIRST BECAUSE,

35:15 GRANTED NOW WE ARE IN A BLOCKADE,

35:17 BUT THEY STILL HAVE A STRANGLE ON MUCH OF THE WORLD'S

35:20 ECONOMY BECAUSE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AT THIS JUNCTURE.

35:25 KAILEY: HELP ME RATIONALIZE THIS, HOLLY.

35:29 IF WE ARE TALKING ABOUT IN IRAN THAT IS WILLING TO WITHSTAND A CERTAIN

35:32 AMOUNT OF ECONOMIC PAIN FOR THE REGIME AND FOR THE PEOPLE OF IRAN,

35:36 WHY WOULD THEY THEN BE INCENTIVIZED BY SANCTIONS RELIEF IN ANY AGREEMENT?

35:42 WHAT WOULD SANCTIONS REALLY PROVIDE TO THE REGIME

35:45 THAT THEY WOULD BE WILLING TO MAKE CONCESSIONS FOR, IF THEY ARE SO WILLING

35:48 TO TOLERATE AND OPERATE AS A ZOMBIE ECONOMY?

35:55 HOLLY: SINKS AND RELIEF ARE A BAND-AID.

35:57 REMEMBER THE REASON THAT ACIDS WERE MOVED FROM THE REGION IN JANUARY WAS BECAUSE

36:03 OF THE ANTIREGIME UPRISING THAT RESULTED IN THE UNPRECEDENTED

36:07 MASSACRE OF TENS OF THOUSANDS OF IRANIAN PROTESTERS.

36:09 SOME OF THAT HAS TO DO WITH THEM

36:12 BEING FED UP WITH SYSTEMIC ISSUES OF MISMANAGEMENT, CORRUPTION, AND REPRESSION.

36:18 IF SANCTIONS RELIEF WERE TO BE GIVEN TO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC,

36:21 IT COULD BE A BAND-AID ON SOME OF THOSE ECONOMIC ISSUES AND ACTUALLY KEEP SOME

36:23 OF THE PIECE ON THE GROUND FOR THE TIME

36:26 BEING UNTIL THEY DECIDE WHAT THEY WILL DO NEXT.

36:32 FOR THEM, IT IS SOMETHING, UNFORTUNATELY, REALISTICALLY SPEAKING,

36:35 WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IS THAT THEY WILL NOT

36:37 BE GIVING THAT MONEY EXACTLY TO THE IRANIAN PEOPLE.

36:41 THEY WILL BE BUILDING MUCH OF THEIR DOMESTIC NUCLEAR PROGRAM,

36:45 BALLISTIC MISSILES CAPABILITIES, DEFENSE CAPABILITIES,

36:48 AND ANYTHING THAT IS LEFT THAT WILL TRICKLE DOWN WILL BE

36:52 AN ECONOMIC BONE TO THE SMALL GROUP OF SUPPORTERS IT HAS LEFT.

36:57 KAILEY: LET WE USE TERMS LIKE IT, REFERRING TO THE REGIME, THEY,

37:05 WHO ARE WE TALKING ABOUT AS THE DECISION-MAKERS

37:06 THAT WILL PROVIDE A FORMAL RESPONSE,

37:08 MAKING AN ULTIMATE DECISION ON A PROPOSAL AND DEAL WITH UNITED STATES?

37:12 HOW DO WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT WHOEVER

37:15 MAKES THOSE DECISIONS IS ONE THAT EVERYBODY IS GOING

37:18 TO BE WILLING TO GO WITH, A DECISION THAT WILL

37:21 BE STOOD BY BY ALL PARTIES INCLUDING THE IRGC?

37:22 HOLLY: I KNOW THERE'S A LOT OF COMMENTARY ABOUT THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC

37:29 BEING FRACTURED DUE TO THE KILLING OF SENIOR LEADERSHIP SINCE THE WAR BEGAN.

37:36 THAT BEING SAID, I THINK WHAT WE ARE SEEING HERE IS

37:39 A MORE HARD-LINE AND REPRESSIVE ELEMENT OF THE CLERICAL ESTABLISHMENT TAKEOVER.

37:46 OUR UNDERSTANDING IS THE SUPREME LEADER MOJTABA KHAMENEI IS ALIVE,

37:50 IN HIDING, GRAVELY INJURED.

37:51 MUCH OF THE LEADERSHIP IS STILL IN PLACE,

37:56 GRANTED THERE ARE NEW FACES LEADING THE IRGC,

38:00 SECRETARY OF THE SUPREME NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL,

38:01 BUT THESE PEOPLE WERE A PART OF THE CLERICAL ESTABLISHMENT BEFORE.

38:07 WHEN YOU ARE SEEING IS THIS JOCKEYING OF POWER BETWEEN

38:09 SOME OF THE MORE TRADITIONAL ELEMENTS OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC,

38:15 AND NOW THIS MORE FRONT FACING IRGC.

38:21 BASICALLY IT IS MORE OF THESE HARD-LINE VOICES THAT ARE

38:26 PUSHING FOR A STRONGER POSTURE AGAINST THE UNITED STATES

38:27 BECAUSE THEY BELIEVE THAT IF THEY DON'T DO THAT, THEY

38:31 WILL HAVE TO FACE ANOTHER WAR IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

38:35 KAILEY: QUICKLY, IF THIS IS A MORE HARD-LINE REGIME,

38:40 DOES THAT MEAN ISRAEL MAY HAVE MORE TO FEAR NOW IN TERMS

38:42 OF THE EXISTENTIAL THREAT AND IT DID PRIOR TO THIS OPERATION STARTING?

38:48 HOLLY: POTENTIALLY.

38:50 I THINK THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION THOUGHT THEY WERE GOING TO GET

38:52 A VENEZUELA OUT OF THIS, THEY WERE GOING TO KILL THE SUPREME LEADER,

38:56 SOMEBODY WOULD COME UP AND MAKE THE DEAL THEY WERE HOPING TO GET.

39:03 WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IS, UNFORTUNATELY, WE HAVE COME UP WITH A NORTH KOREA INSTEAD,

39:08 ONE THAT IS MORE HARD-LINE, MORE REPRESSIVE, MORE EMBOLDENED.

39:11 IF IT HAD ITS DRUTHERS, IT WOULD GO FORWARD WITH ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM BECAUSE

39:17 THEY THINK THAT WOULD DETER FROM FUTURE CONFLICT LIKE THIS.

39:21 WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THESE TRENDLINES

39:21 FROM THE COMMENTARY FROM SENIOR LEADERSHIP.

39:23 THE NEW SUPREME LEADER HAS COME OUT AND SAID THEY

39:27 WOULD NOT BE NEGOTIATING OVER THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM OR BALLISTIC MISSILES.

39:31 THERE IS ALSO A STATE IMPOSED INTERNET SET

39:34 DOWN THAT SHUT DOWN SINCE THE WAR BEGAN,

39:35 SO PEOPLE CANNOT EXPRESS THEMSELVES IN THESE MOMENTS.

39:40 KAILEY: HOLLY DAGRES OF THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE,

39:43 THANK YOU FOR JOINING US WITH YOUR INSIGHT AND EXPERTISE.

39:46 WE TURNED ONTO THE EXPERTISE OF COLONEL WAYNE SANDERS OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE,

39:50 OUR SENIOR RESEARCH DEFENSE ANALYST.

39:52 AS WE TALKED ABOUT THE STRUGGLES

39:56 AND THE PATH FORWARD ARE ON THE DIPLOMATIC PROCESS,

40:00 I IMAGINE THAT WILL BE VERY MUCH INFORMED

40:02 BY THE ACTIVITY WE ARE SEEING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ,

40:05 THE EXCHANGE OF FIRE FOR MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW, THAT THE U.S.

40:07 SAYS IT IS NOT THE END OF THE CEASE-FIRE.

40:11 I WONDER FOR HOW LONG THAT CAN REMAIN THE CASE

40:12 IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE HOSTILE ACTIVITY LIKE THIS?

40:16 WAYNE: THANKS FOR HAVING ME ON.

40:19 RIGHT NOW, THEY ARE TRYING TO, USCENTCOM IS LOOKING AT THIS AS SELF-DEFENSE,

40:24 RULES OF ENGAGEMENT.

40:25 WE WERE SHOT AT BY THE IRANIANS, SO WE CAME OVER AND STRUCK.

40:32 THEY ARE STILL DOING IT ALMOST AS A RESPONSE ACTION AS OPPOSED TO AN OFFENSIVE.

40:35 INSTEAD OF MOVING BACK INTO OPERATION EPIC FURY.

40:43 CONTINUED STRIKES, CONTINUED ATTACKS AGAINST SOME

40:46 OF THOSE NAVAL VESSELS, I HAVE A FEELING,

40:48 IT WILL BE A POINT WHERE PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS I'M GOING TO EXPAND.

40:52 WE CALL IT ESCALATION OF FORCE.

40:54 I DON'T THINK HE WOULD GO BACK TO A FULL CAMPAIGN,

40:59 BUT THE ISLAND IS ONE OF THOSE AREAS WHERE HE WOULD SAY,

41:02 ALL I'VE DONE IS HIT OR FAST BOATS,

41:03 I HAVE MOVED TO LAND AND I'M WILLING TO GO BEYOND THAT.

41:08 KAILEY: IS MORE OF THIS FRANKLY INEVITABLE AS LONG

41:10 AS WE ARE INSISTENT ON MAINTAINING THIS NAVAL BLOCKADE?

41:14 WAYNE: TO A CERTAIN EXTENT.

41:17 ONE OF THE BIGGEST PIECES RIGHT NOW IS IRAN'S RESPONSE,

41:21 EVEN AS YOU BROUGHT UP THE CIA REPORT, IF THAT IS TRUE, THAT BRINGS DOWN SOME

41:26 OF THE URGENCY OF IRAN NEEDING TO CONTINUE THESE STRIKES.

41:30 IF YOU THINK ABOUT WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW,

41:34 OVER 5400 MISSILES AND DRONE ATTACKS HAVE HAPPENED SINCE 28 FEBRUARY.

41:41 YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT.

41:44 19 ON MONDAY, A HANDFUL AFTER U.S.

41:47 NAVAL VESSELS, BUT WELL BELOW THE THRESHOLD WE WERE SEEING WHERE

41:50 THE AVERAGE WAS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 65 AND 150 ATTACKS A DAY.

41:54 KAILEY: AS YOU TALK ABOUT THAT DIMINISHED PACE

42:00 IN TERMS OF THE ATTACKS IRAN IS ABLE TO EXECUTE,

42:04 I JUST WONDER HOW YOU THINK THAT COLORS THEIR POSITION,

42:08 HOW THEY ARE LIKELY TO POSITION THEMSELVES

42:09 IN THE DIPLOMATIC RESPONSE THAT THE U.S.

42:11 IS EXPECTING TO RECEIVE FROM THEM TODAY.

42:18 IS THIS AN IRAN, LOOKING AT THEIR OWN MILITARY CAPABILITIES,

42:19 IS INCENTIVIZED TO MAKE A DEAL AT THIS POINT?

42:24 WAYNE: AS YOU ARE BRINGING UP ABOUT THE IRGC,

42:27 THEY CONTINUED TO BE ABLE TO PRESS FROM THE ASYMMETRIC CAPABILITIES.

42:32 FROM A CONVENTIONAL MILITARY STANDPOINT, YOU HAVE HEARD THEM SAY IT.

42:39 IRAN DOESN'T HAVE A WHOLE LOT LEFT.

42:42 BUT IF YOU HAVE ASYMMETRIC CAPABILITY THAT CAN HOLD THE REST

42:46 OF THE WORLD HOSTAGE FOR 20% OF ITS OIL SUPPLY,

42:48 YOU STILL HAVE LEVERS YOU CAN HOLD ONTO.

42:49 IN THE MILITARY, THE IRGC CAN STILL CONTINUE

42:53 TO IMPOSE THAT, EVEN WHEN STRIKES ARE UNSUCCESSFUL.

42:57 IT IS STILL BEING REPORTED THAT THEY ARE STRIKING, SO THEY CAN HOLD ONTO SOME

43:01 OF THAT STRANGLEHOLD UNTIL THEY BRING THAT LEVERAGE FORWARD.

43:06 KAILEY: COLONEL WAYNE SANDERS,

43:08 SENIOR DEFENSE ANALYST FOR BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE, THANK YOU.

43:13 BLOOMBERG NEWS CONFIRMING EARLIER REPORTING

43:15 BY THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THAT PRESIDENT

43:17 TRUMP IS SIGNING OFF ON FIRING THE FDA COMMISSIONER MARTY MAKARY.

43:20 THEY WILL HAVE MORE ON THAT ON BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY.

43:24 I WILL HAVE MORE ON THE LATE EDITION OF BALANCE OF POWER AT 5:00.