Supreme Court ruling sets off gerrymandering scramble
CNN
0:00 Today is exactly 6 months until the midterm elections.
0:02 And with so much at stake for President
0:05 Trump and the future direction of the United States,
0:07 what is the likelihood Democrats can win back one,
0:10 if not both chambers of Congress?
0:12 We'll break all that down this hour.
0:14 But given that this past week there was a hu such huge news impacting the races
0:19 for the House and the Senate with a major
0:21 jolt upending a critical primary and one
0:24 of the nation's marquee senate races and also
0:26 the Supreme Court blowing up how congressional maps can
0:29 be drawn g of a huge boost to the GOP and upending the race for the House.
0:35 Also potentially changing that institution for decades to come.
0:39 So, how will voters respond?
0:41 And will Trump drag down his party or be
0:44 fixated with political retribution at the ballot box,
0:47 which he is seeking to exact on Republicans, beginning in Indiana this week.
0:52 We have an excellent group of reporters to break all this down,
0:55 including NPR's Tamara Keith, CNN's Jeff Zelony, and Dearra Walsh from Notice.
0:59 Good morning to you all.
1:01 It's great to see you.
1:02 Morning.
1:03 Morning, Jeeoff.
1:04 You've been digesting the map of these district
1:07 lines all week long because it is so significant.
1:10 It could impact the race for the House.
1:12 We've been through this gerrymandering world war unprecedented.
1:15 Really, we have not seen this happening
1:17 in this mid decade state-by-state fight that's been going
1:21 on in the beginning of this cycle since Trump
1:24 began that fight this year, last year in Texas.
1:26 You can see on your screen.
1:28 Republicans right now have an advantage in that ongoing
1:31 gerrymandering role by by about three seats.
1:33 But then the Supreme Court steps in this past week,
1:37 limits the Voting Rights Act,
1:39 changes how minority majority districts lines can be drawn,
1:43 and now we're seeing several state legislators trying to help Republicans.
1:47 There you see on your screen there,
1:50 these are what's expect Alabama try to add two Republican seats.
1:54 Louisiana tried to add two Republican seats.
1:56 Tennessee won.
1:56 That is this year's midterms.
1:58 Just for this year's midterms, Jeff,
1:59 is that going to be enough for Republicans to stay in power?
2:03 Unlikely.
2:03 I mean, look, the reality is uh looking at the president's approval rating,
2:06 looking at just the mood of the economy and other things, I mean,
2:10 Republicans realize that they are up against some dramatic headwinds,
2:13 but this is a historical a historic moment
2:16 here in terms of a the Voting Rights Act.
2:19 I mean, I'm obviously uh um it's been
2:22 a pillar of our country's politics uh for decades,
2:25 and all of that has been slowly changing starting
2:28 with the with the Shelby County decision in 201 uh 13,
2:32 but this uh really effectively dismantled the rest of it.
2:35 But you only had to look at just the exact
2:38 moment when the Supreme Court was reading this opinion.
2:41 The Florida House of Representatives uh was voting on this new map in Florida.
2:45 So, it's effectively taking this tit for tat that we've
2:47 seen all year long into overdrive or overtime, I guess.
2:51 And look, the short-term effects for the midterms this year are
2:55 not going to be that much because many primaries have already happened.
2:58 The filing deadlines have already happened,
2:59 but next year it means that redistricting is going to be in overdrive as well.
3:03 And not just the southern states that we saw.
3:05 Democrats are going to respond in kind.
3:07 So, we are going to see this new divide in American politics.
3:10 But for this year at least, it is not likely enough to protect the Republicans.
3:15 And we say that a plus five in Texas.
3:17 We don't know that Republicans are going to win all these.
3:19 That's up to five seats they're trying to get.
3:22 But also, Democrats could lose this Virginia case.
3:24 It's before the state supreme court there.
3:26 They're trying to get four seats as a result
3:29 of that ballot referendum that just passed a couple of weeks ago.
3:32 They could potentially, if they lost that, that would be a disaster for them.
3:35 The question though is look,
3:36 there are so few House seats that are truly in play right now.
3:40 So if you're battling seat by seat, state by state,
3:43 a couple seats here and a couple
3:45 seats there could potentially determine the majority.
3:47 I mean, it's a paper thin margin in in the House of Representatives.
3:50 And I think up until, you know, right around the time of the Virginia vote,
3:54 there was among Republicans some redistricting regret, right?
3:57 because they saw that vote and they were worried about what you just
4:01 talked about this tit fortat uh you know that they started in Texas
4:05 at the beginning of the year but I think once the Supreme
4:08 Court decision came down this week on the voting rights act Republicans started
4:12 to feel like okay maybe this will be in our favor but also
4:16 we were debating mid decade redistricting up until the Supreme Court now we're
4:20 looking at bianial redistricting redistricting is just here to stay and I think
4:25 it's just going to be you a dog fight from here on out,
4:29 we're going to see court cases just in these states.
4:32 But now, as these special sessions uh start up in Tennessee,
4:35 which starts tomorrow,
4:36 some of these are starting in Alabama is starting on tomorrow,
4:39 Tuesday in Tennessee.
4:40 So, this is going to begin as you as you as you say.
4:44 I I want to ask you about what
4:46 the Democrats would be pointing to here is that look,
4:49 yes, the Republicans are coming in here.
4:50 They're changing the lines in these states and they can add a couple more seats.
4:54 But Trump's they can't get past Trump's poll numbers cuz
4:57 new poll out from the Washington Post out this morning.
5:01 This is Trump's approval rating among independents.
5:03 25% that is rock bottom among the critical voting block
5:08 in some of these key primary key swing districts and states.
5:13 And then the overall generic ballot.
5:15 The Democrats have an advantage here when 49
5:18 to 44% 5% advantage when the question is asked,
5:22 who do you prefer to control Congress?
5:25 Democrat versus Republican.
5:27 That's up a couple points since earlier this this year.
5:31 So, they hope that Trump drags down Republicans enough that they
5:35 could eek into the majority or maybe get a solid majority, right?
5:39 and and the fact that there is so much fighting
5:42 over district lines up right this close to to people
5:47 voting Louisiana having to move back congressional primaries that just
5:52 gives you a sense of how intense this is.
5:56 Um but right the president's approval rating is in the basement.
6:01 He has broken through below where where we thought his floor was.
6:06 uh and just drive by a gas station and you'll know why.
6:10 Um it was very clear that President Trump started the war in Iran,
6:15 went into this war and a lot of voters initially,
6:18 his voters were willing to give him the benefit
6:20 of the doubt to say he's got a plan.
6:22 These gas prices are going to come down quickly.
6:24 He's been saying the war is ending any minute now for more than a month.
6:29 Meanwhile, every time people drive by a gas station,
6:32 and you drive by several a day, generally, the prices are up.
6:36 It's over $4 a gallon.
6:38 It's something like 435 for the national
6:40 average right now for a gallon of regular.
6:42 That is tough.
6:44 Uh, and whether those people are so mad
6:46 they're going to vote for Democrats is one thing.
6:49 Whether they're so mad they just stay home is something entirely different.
6:53 And in these midterms, we already know that Democrats have the energy advantage.
6:58 Yeah.
6:58 And and that poll confirms that as well as we've
7:01 seen so many data points to suggest that, including
7:03 the poll said that the Democrats advantage grows to nine
7:06 points among those who are absolutely certain to vote.
7:08 So Democrats would be happy to see that.
7:11 But the impacts on this Supreme Court ruling could impact
7:15 how how many districts they can actually pick up this cycle,
7:19 whether they could have to defend some new districts
7:22 and also what will happen as Jeff noted in the future.
7:25 Look at the current congressional map.
7:26 When you look at the map of the South,
7:29 there are 37 Democratic seats to 94 Republican seats.
7:32 Expect in 2028 when they come in here
7:35 and that could be just a sea of red there, Jeeoff.
7:39 It absolutely could and that is why we are going to see really
7:43 a generational and just a foundational uh
7:45 uh change in the House of Representatives.
7:47 And what we're not showing there, the North is going to and the West is going
7:51 to a responding kind like Illinois for example could be all blue,
7:54 New York could be all blue.
7:56 California could be all blue.
7:57 So what it means overall is more uh division, more polarization.
8:01 gerrymandering is something that uh neither party likes,
8:05 but both parties are willing to jump right into it
8:08 uh because it has become just a race to the bottom.
8:11 But I think that this the Supreme
8:13 Court decision is something probably the biggest
8:16 uh case of the year in terms of the overall ramifications for our politics.
8:20 So again, I think shortterm uh long-term
8:22 and the long-term effects to your point, every two years now,
8:26 it's going to be redrawing and redrawing and it also
8:29 puts a highlight on governor's races and state uh senate races,
8:33 state house races because, you know, these are the people that are going to be
8:37 deciding these maps in Colorado and New York and Illinois.
8:40 And it'll be very important who's running the state.
8:43 And those very states are the ones that Hakeem Jeff
8:46 is pointing to to deal with in the 2028 cycle.
8:49 He's not talking about 2026 or 2028.
8:51 The question will be how does this ruling impact 2026?