The Hill's Decision Desk 2026 - Data Nerds track Nebraska, West Virginia primary elections

1:52 Good Tuesday evening everybody.

1:55 Hope you are doing well.

1:56 Welcome to the Hills Decision Desk 26 data nerds.

2:00 We have been monitoring primaries all across the country these last few months.

2:04 And here we are again on another Tuesday night in 2026

2:07 with a host of juicy races in the United States.

2:10 Tonight, it's all eyes on Nebraska and West Virginia.

2:14 As you know by now, I am Corey Smith,

2:15 host of Sunrise on the Hill here in Washington DC.

2:19 But I cannot do this alone.

2:21 And once again, tonight we are going to be joined

2:23 by uh a host of guests helping us walk through the data,

2:27 the results, and the political intrigue.

2:29 Joining me to start, Drew Petramo here to my left.

2:31 Good evening to you, Drew.

2:32 What's going on, man?

2:32 Good to be here.

2:33 I'm doing pretty well.

2:34 And Jeron Zhao, uh, prediction markets expert,

2:38 a guy we go to to to get the pulse of all the, uh, you know, betters out there,

2:42 the folks who like to put a little money

2:43 down on the way these races, uh, shape up.

2:46 How are you doing, Jerome?

2:48 Doing great.

2:48 Thanks for having me.

2:49 All right.

2:49 Hey, let's dive right in.

2:51 Uh, I think I want to start in Nebraska

2:53 tonight first because you've got some interesting races.

2:56 We've got a US Senate race.

2:57 We've got a governor's race and of course there's

2:59 the open Omaha area seat any to the blue

3:03 dot as it's known but Republican Don Bacon

3:05 has held that seat uh for the last term.

3:08 He is retiring so it's an open seat and we've

3:10 got a slew of GOP and Democratic candidates going for it.

3:14 Um but we're going to start in the Senate

3:16 because that is a very interesting race.

3:19 You have incumbent Senator Pete Rickettts who was uh appointed

3:22 then won a special election after uh Ben Sass left Congress.

3:27 uh he is running for reelection.

3:28 He's the the the heavy favorite in that GOP primary.

3:32 And then you have a Democratic primary between Cindy Burbank and William J.

3:37 J.

3:37 Forbes.

3:38 Now, here's what's interesting.

3:39 If Cindy Burbank wins the Democratic nomination,

3:43 she is going to drop out of the race.

3:45 At least that is uh what she is saying thus far.

3:48 The reason is because come the general election,

3:51 it's going to be perhaps Pete Ricketts

3:52 on the Republican side and then Dan Osborne,

3:55 an independent, a populist, a mechanic, uh,

3:58 who lost to Deb Fischer in 2024 by a slim margin.

4:02 He is running again.

4:03 And the thinking is from Democrats uh,

4:05 at least in the Burbank camp is that if she wins, she drops out.

4:09 That gives him a clearer path to take on Pete Rickettts one by one.

4:13 Now, William J.

4:13 Forbes, he is facing accusations that he's a dino,

4:17 I guess, if you will, a Democrat in name,

4:19 only that he is basically a plant just to siphon some votes away from Burbank,

4:24 perhaps enter the race himself, and then cut into Dan Osborne's lead.

4:28 So, that is what I am looking at in Nebraska.

4:31 But, as we do every primary night,

4:33 I'll ask my guests to chime in on what they are looking for this primary night.

4:37 Drew, we'll start with you.

4:38 Yeah.

4:38 No, I think that Senate race is really interesting.

4:40 You have to think of it like this.

4:42 This is a Trump plus 20 state in 2024.

4:47 So this is a state that went heavily Republican in the presidential race.

4:50 But you mentioned and you have to look at it because in the Senate race,

4:53 which was Deb Fischer, who's the other senator from Nebraska,

4:57 she ran against Dan Osborne last cycle and she only won by 6.5 points.

5:03 So he ran 14 points ahead of Kla Harris in that state.

5:08 And that is what I think gives Democrats hope that if

5:12 they get a candidate in and that candidate drops out and everybody

5:16 puts all their weight behind Dan Osborne in a midterm election

5:20 where you have the party in power that has hit some turbulence.

5:24 President Trump underwater in many states and and you have some agricultural

5:28 states where uh like Nebraska where there's some farmers that could be upset.

5:33 Can you get Dan Osborne across the finish line

5:35 in an off-year election uh running against a party in power?

5:39 That is the big question here.

5:40 And the Democrats are really pulling out all

5:42 the stops to try to make that happen.

5:44 It's kind of emblematic of of what you what

5:47 you have with the modern iteration of both parties.

5:49 You have a billionaire Republican running against

5:52 a not Democrat because he can't call himself

5:56 a Democrat because the Democratic party is so toxic in that part of the country.

6:01 Very interesting race to watch.

6:02 And that's to say nothing of this blue dot race,

6:04 but also has all the makings of an interesting race

6:07 uh because that is a hotly contested uh congressional district.

6:12 That congressional district, Kla Harris won,

6:14 but Dominican currently represents that.

6:16 He's retiring and he's a Republican.

6:18 Of course, he's a moderate Republican and has been

6:20 one of the most frequent Republican critics of President Trump.

6:23 Very interesting things happening in Nebraska.

6:26 Yeah.

6:26 Unshackled by having to run for reelection.

6:28 Uh Don Bacon is we'll turn things over to you.

6:31 what are you personally looking at?

6:32 And then in terms of the prediction markets, where is the action tonight?

6:37 Yeah, I mean on Nebraska,

6:39 like I think that is the main state uh with the elections tonight.

6:43 There's West Virginia as well, but you know,

6:45 the general election in Nebraska does have the potential to be very competitive.

6:48 The markets have this as sort of lean Republican.

6:52 Um Republicans only have around a 64% chance of winning that election.

6:56 um which shows you know with the right independent candidate

7:00 right not with the Democrat Dan Osborne could potentially uh

7:04 make this a real race although it is tough

7:06 for any independent or third party we've seen um you know

7:10 plenty of them in the past from Dan Hosman

7:13 himself in 2024 to you know Evan McMullen in 2022

7:18 to even Greg Orman in 2014 in Kansas where there's

7:22 a lot of tight polling um and ultimately the, you know,

7:27 Republican in all three of those cases ends up pulling it

7:29 out by a narrower margin than they would have against a Democrat.

7:33 Um, but structurally, I do think it is tough for independence in in any state.

7:38 Um, on the Nebraska second congressional district, you know,

7:42 this is the markets are very confident on John Kavanaaugh,

7:46 who is a state legislator um in Nebraska to pull out the win of the primary.

7:51 It's interesting the dynamics there in terms of, you know,

7:54 if his vacancy is appointed by uh the governor

7:59 um how that impacts the balance of power in Nebraska's,

8:04 you know, unicameal state legislature.

8:07 Um and it's a state where with all

8:10 this redistricting fervor kind of happening again um there have

8:14 been talks of making that district you know more

8:17 out of reach for Democrats which would affect not

8:19 just the balance of power in the house but potentially

8:24 the presidential election because Nebraska is one of two

8:26 states that allocates its you know electoral votes um

8:29 district by district in addition to the statewide winner.

8:32 Uh we've also got a governor's race uh in Nebraska happening as well.

8:36 You've got a primary there that we are

8:38 all very much looking forward to uh tonight.

8:40 We'll go to West Virginia very quickly because here it is 8:07

8:43 on the East Coast and we already have our first race call.

8:46 Shelley Moore Capo in the GOP primary.

8:48 She is headed uh for the general election in November.

8:53 No surprise there.

8:54 She had the endorsement of uh President Trump to fall back on.

8:58 She had a lot of money in the war chest as well.

9:00 So, she will make her way uh to the Senate.

9:04 uh Democrats, five Democrats competing for this seat.

9:07 We'll ultimately see who comes out on top there.

9:09 Um we're also watching um a big school

9:12 choice issue going on in West Virginia where

9:15 a lot of money is being pumped in um on both sides of of that argument.

9:19 So we'll dive a little bit into that uh as well.

9:22 But let's circle back to Nebraska.

9:23 Uh Jerome, if you can, can you go ahead and share your screen uh with us?

9:27 That way we can sort of see where the markets are.

9:30 Uh I mentioned that governor's race.

9:31 We've got Jim Pan, incumbent,

9:33 facing a couple of Republican challengers and Democrats uh Lynn

9:36 Walls and Larry Marvin competing for that nomination uh as well.

9:41 And then in the other congressional uh districts,

9:43 it's not all about any two in that blue dot.

9:46 You've got Nebraska's first district where I believe

9:48 Mike Flood is running uh unopposed in that district.

9:52 Uh there are two challengers,

9:53 Eric Moyer and Chris Bachamire on the Democratic side of things.

9:57 the NE2 race, Brinker Harding, the Republican.

10:00 He's running unopposed against a slew of Democratic candidates.

10:03 And then Nebraska's third district, you've got the incumbent, Adrienne Smith.

10:06 He's got one challenger on the Republican primary side,

10:09 and Becky Kelly still is the Democratic primary challenger.

10:13 She is running on a post, so she is going to make it uh to the general election.

10:17 What's interesting here is you've got um

10:20 progressive socialist candidates running in these races.

10:22 You've got city councilors, you got county clerks,

10:25 state senators uh from Nebraska,

10:27 all trying to make their way to the federal level.

10:29 Uh so some interesting races to watch.

10:31 Uh Jerome, why don't we go ahead and start

10:33 with that Nebraska Senate race and uh show us

10:36 what the markets have been saying um I guess

10:39 over the the life of this race if you can,

10:42 as far back as you can go, and where people thought we would ultimately end up.

10:47 So So this is the general election uh for the Nebraska Senate seat.

10:52 Um, and you can see, you know, before, this is way back in 2025,

10:57 before Dan Osborne sort of jumped in, this was extremely lopsided.

11:01 The Republicans are favored with, you know, well above 80% in the market.

11:06 And currently he has, you know, brought it closer, right?

11:11 Currently it's um, as I said,

11:13 Republicans are kind of in the 60s and he's in the 30s.

11:16 the Democrats, as we expect um Cindy Burbank to win, at least the markets do.

11:22 You know, she said she would drop out.

11:23 So, Democrats are not really a uh factor

11:26 in terms of a party candidate in this general election.

11:29 Um so, yeah, I think it's fascinating that, you know,

11:32 over time Dan Osborne's chances have been improving.

11:34 We've seen this across different Senate races um

11:37 from you know Ohio and Alaska to even

11:41 elections where there's not a Democrat but it's

11:43 a Democratic aligned independent which I think

11:46 speaks to just the general um broader climate

11:50 that the candidates are running in which you

11:53 know we had an inflation report come out

11:55 that was you know the highest since 2023.

11:57 um if the situation in the Middle East straight

12:00 up is not open that could impact the general election,

12:04 you know, the economic argument even more down the line.

12:08 One other wrinkle that we should talk about uh in this Senate race

12:11 and on the Democratic side of things is you actually had um Burbank thrown off

12:16 the ballot earlier this year back in March because of a complaint filed

12:20 by the Republican Party of Nebraska saying

12:21 that she was not running in good faith.

12:23 Uh the Supreme Court in Nebraska ultimately

12:25 interveneed and got Burbank back on the ballot,

12:27 but as we mentioned, if she wins tonight,

12:29 she has said that she's going to drop out.

12:30 Uh that way it gives Dan Osborne a clear

12:32 one-on-one path uh with incumbent Senator uh Pete Rickettts.

12:36 Uh Drew, you want to come in here and and you know,

12:39 we we've talked about the Nebraska House,

12:40 the Nebraska Governor uh is an interesting race uh as well.

12:44 Um but a lot of things going on.

12:46 You've got political organizers, as I said, county clerks,

12:48 nonprofit founders running for these races uh in the corn husker state.

12:51 Yeah.

12:52 You know, and I think that House race is really interesting

12:54 when you look at the different Democrats that are in that race.

12:56 And we have talked about John Kavanaaugh.

12:59 he is a state senator and there's the interesting dynamic there where

13:02 if he is out of the uh state senate and he comes,

13:07 you know, ends up becoming a congressperson,

13:09 then uh there's a major question about whether or not

13:11 that tips the balance of power and they could possibly do

13:15 away with the blue dot status of Nebraska where they

13:17 would award the electoral college uh points for the whole state.

13:23 You have to wonder though,

13:24 I'm sure while maybe Republicans would like to see that because they'd get so,

13:28 you know, that additional electoral college point,

13:30 the amount of tension and money, uh,

13:33 the the political consulting class could not be too happy with losing that uh,

13:38 you know, all the advertising money and all the attention.

13:41 It kind of would take away from the political clout of the state.

13:44 And I think there probably some Republicans that do enjoy that aspect

13:47 of of so much focus coming to Nebraska around election time.

13:52 And we saw this debate take place last

13:56 election cycle and there was pressure being put

13:58 on state lawmakers to overturn that status then

14:02 and then there was resistance within the Republican party.

14:04 So it'll be interesting to see if we

14:06 do come to that if that resistance persists.

14:09 Uh but but that is an interesting race inside the Democratic party.

14:12 You also have Denise Pal.

14:13 She's a a political action committee co-founder.

14:16 She founded this uh political action committee

14:18 that helps women run for office in Nebraska.

14:22 and she has seen a ton of outside money flood her direction.

14:25 Uh $1.6 million as of April 22nd.

14:29 So, a lot of money being poured into that race.

14:32 She's actually been labeled by the other candidates as dark money Denise.

14:36 Uh there has been some dynamics.

14:40 You know, there you'd have to really parse the words,

14:42 but as we've seen in so many of these Democratic primary primaries,

14:46 the issue of Israel has become uh an important issue in this Democratic primary.

14:51 you have to really parse the words

14:53 to find differentiation between the um between the candidates.

14:57 But because that is such a tense issue and because it is so heated

15:02 inside these Democratic primaries and has become

15:04 really a touch point inside the Democratic party,

15:07 there's a lot of parsing of the words going on between

15:09 the different statements that the candidates have made about that issue.

15:13 So, a lot of of scrutiny be being put

15:15 on that on that Democratic primary and then that will be one

15:19 of the most closely watched House races whoever comes out

15:23 as the victor in the Democratic primary because uh it's an interesting race.

15:27 You know, we've talked about uh Kla Harris winning that race.

15:30 Don Bacon has been successful there.

15:32 You've had many that's been one of the few

15:35 places in the country where you've seen a lot of split ticket voting voting

15:38 for a Republican congressman and a Democratic presidential candidate.

15:42 And I think Democrats are keen to pick up

15:44 that in part of their effort to take over the House.

15:47 Uh Jeron, uh before I'm gonna ask you to stop sharing your screen,

15:50 but before you do that, walk us through uh

15:52 the prediction market when it comes to this any two race.

15:56 Yeah.

15:56 So this is the primary race on the Democratic side.

15:58 The Republican um have a kind of a presumptive nominee and Braden Harding.

16:03 this so you know this this actually has been going back

16:06 and forth if you look at the full history of it um

16:09 between Kavanaaugh and Denise Powell and currently on the eve

16:14 of the votes coming in Kavanaaugh has favored to win at around 80%.

16:18 Um but there's a lot of uncertainty.

16:21 Um you know they have led in fundraising.

16:25 There's been a lot of money spent

16:26 in this primary and there are implications for the house,

16:30 the electoral college, all of that.

16:32 Now in the actual general election for any two.

16:36 Um this is a district that I think is one of only two or three

16:42 where um a Republican represents a district

16:45 that you know Kla Harris or Democrats have won,

16:48 right?

16:49 Um the other I think would be you

16:50 know Brian Fitzpatrick maybe in Pennsylvania's first district.

16:54 Um and this one is one that Republicans that Democrats are heavily favored in.

16:59 I think it's not a huge surprise given that, you know,

17:03 Don Bacon was a very strong incumbent with, you know, cross party appeal.

17:08 Um, that this district was one that Harris and Biden had won by, you know,

17:14 five or more points and that the general, you know,

17:17 midterm environment is still favorable for Democrats as of now.

17:22 Um, so Democrats have a 83% chance of winning this in the market.

17:27 Um and it has not really shifted because this district has not, you know,

17:30 been redrawn or there's not been other forces that have

17:33 really affected um the trajectory of this general election.

17:37 All right, Jeron, go ahead and stop sharing

17:39 your screen because we have another guest joining us.

17:41 That of course would be Jeffrey Skellyy, chief elections analyst at DDHQ,

17:46 joining us for another Tuesday night primary watchathon, basically.

17:51 Uh Jeffrey, thank you so much for being here.

17:53 Uh same question I ask every single time we do one of these.

17:56 What are you watching on this primary Tuesday night?

18:00 Well, I think the sort of the the curiously the most interesting thing going

18:04 on tonight uh is the the Nebraska Senate primaries where you have a situation

18:10 where the the main two candidates are

18:12 going to be Republican Senator Pete Rickettts

18:15 and independent Dan Osborne who's who's challenging

18:18 him and essentially has the support of Democrats,

18:20 but you still have a Democratic primary

18:23 and also the legalized marijuana now minor

18:27 primary in Nebraska and The situ the situation is

18:31 if if sort of two candidates, one in each win,

18:34 they are going to both probably drop out

18:36 and set up a head-to-head race between Rickettts and Osborne.

18:39 But if the others win,

18:41 uh you will have uh likely another candidate or potentially two if if both

18:45 of the other candidates win in the Democratic

18:47 and legalized marijuana now primaries on the ballot.

18:50 And that matters because for Dan Osborne his chances

18:54 uh you know he's going to be an underdog

18:56 in this race against Pete Rickettts sort of regardless uh

18:59 you know at least at this point it's looking that way.

19:03 But if he has a head-to-head race that means

19:05 all the anti- Ricketts vote goes to Osborne.

19:07 Whereas if you have if you had a Democrat on the ballot,

19:10 even technically a Democrat winning the nomination

19:13 and getting three 4% of the vote,

19:15 even though most Democrats are aware of Osborne or focused on Osborne,

19:19 just a little bit could could splintering that anti- Ricketts vote

19:23 could cost him a chance at at pulling off this win.

19:26 Go ahead, Drew.

19:27 I was just going to ask,

19:27 is the legalized marijuana now candidate trying to essentially do

19:32 the same thing that the Democratic candidate is going to do?

19:34 occupy that space so that somebody else can't take up

19:37 votes as some as a as a legalized marijuana candidate.

19:42 Yeah.

19:42 So, the the I'd like to be clear that some of the reporting around

19:46 this and the the clarity of just what is

19:50 happening and what is just accusations is a little murky,

19:53 but essentially you do have a situation where

19:55 the legalized marijuana now primary there are two candidates.

19:59 In fact, if I can bring it up here.

20:01 Yeah.

20:02 Go ahead and share power.

20:03 I'm sharing it.

20:04 Uh if I can get to the Nebraska.

20:07 Yes.

20:07 Um we don't always add in minor third party primaries, but we added this one in.

20:12 Um so yes, you have uh again this is a situation where this the if

20:18 there is a candidate from from the legal legalized marijuana now LMN party.

20:22 Maybe that's just easier to say.

20:23 LMN the marijuana party.

20:25 Uh if if you have someone from from that party on the ballot,

20:30 they'll get like 2% of the vote or something.

20:32 in the general election, give or take.

20:35 But again, if you're Dan Osborne and you think those voters

20:38 might be somewhat more likely to vote for you than Pete Rickettts,

20:42 the Republican uh Senate incumbent,

20:45 uh you'd like there to be no legalized marijuana now candidate on the ballot.

20:49 So essentially what is going on here is that Earl Starky had

20:52 had filed uh in January and is apparently a member of the party.

20:57 Uh, and then right before the filing deadline,

21:00 Mike Marvin, this other candidate, got in the race and essentially the the chair

21:04 of the legalized marijuana now party in Nebraska,

21:07 has accused or alleged at least that Marvin

21:10 is a plant from the Osborne campaign uh

21:12 because he has union connections and Osborne is

21:14 is a union leader in terms of his background.

21:17 And uh Marvin denies that this is the case.

21:20 But it is interesting because the Democrat in the Democratic primary,

21:23 which I can also flip over to uh that where

21:27 you have a similar situation where there are two candidates,

21:29 one of them might be thinking about dropping out and one of them might not be.

21:35 Uh sorry, this is the Republican race.

21:37 I thought I brought up thinking about dropping out.

21:39 She says she's going to drop out.

21:41 Yeah, Cindy Burbank.

21:42 Uh and I'm I'm I I think it's going to be this one.

21:45 Uh anyway, Cindy Burbank apparently paid

21:48 that legalized marijuana now uh filing fee.

21:53 Mhm.

21:52 That candidate Marvin's which is like hm interesting.

21:56 So is he is he going to drop out if he wins?

21:59 Yeah.

21:59 I mean that that's less clear, but it would seem that uh Burbank is

22:05 definitely intending on dropping out if she wins.

22:07 Forbes, William Forbes, the other Democrat candidate who uh the Osborne camp

22:12 and Democrats accused of being a plant, a Republican plant,

22:14 uh because he is an anti-abortion pastor who uh apparently attended

22:19 a conservative training for for politicians and activists uh and uh is anyway,

22:26 he denies that he's a plant.

22:28 Again, it there's some murkiness to all this, but if Burbank does win,

22:32 she intends on dropping out.

22:34 Marvin hasn't said that he's going to drop out as far as I know explicitly,

22:38 but the thought is that he is more likely to withdraw.

22:41 Now, it is true uh that under the state party rules,

22:45 I'm pretty sure that the legalized marijuana now campaign could

22:49 they could substitute a nominee if he did drop out.

22:52 So you might, whereas the Democrats wouldn't want to nominate anybody to replace

22:55 Burbank if she dropped out and leave the v leave the nomination slot vacant,

23:00 which is also what happened in 2024 when

23:02 Osborne ended up running headto-head against Deb Fischer.

23:05 Uh I think in the other case it might be that you

23:08 have a candidate win the primary and then they do no campaigning, zero.

23:12 Zilch, don't do anything to try to win any votes.

23:14 So you try to minimize the legalized marijuana now

23:17 vote as much as possible by winning that primary.

23:19 So, there is some very interesting uh gamesmanship going on for in two

23:24 primaries where the winners will not have

23:25 any chance of winning the general election.

23:27 Hey, must must be nice.

23:29 You can survive the primary and then dust

23:30 your hands off and say I'm good uh till November.

23:33 Um before we go any further, uh we do have another projection.

23:37 DHQ projects that Carol Mill Carol Miller is the winner of the West

23:41 Virginia GOP primary for the first congressional district in West Virginia.

23:45 She was the incumbent taking on one challenger.

23:48 Um, so waiting for the Democratic side of things to shake out,

23:51 but uh, that race is won.

23:53 You already got President Trump taking to Truth

23:55 Social to congratulate Shelley Moore Capo, uh,

23:58 winning her Republican primary, the incumbent senator from West Virginia,

24:02 and congratulating uh, Carol Miller.

24:04 He's also congratulated Riley Moore,

24:06 but I don't think that race has been called yet.

24:07 So, I'm going to wait on our pals at DDHQ to ultimately uh, make that decision.

24:12 But perhaps the president getting out ahead of things uh, in West Virginia.

24:15 I believe Moore I believe I believe Moore is unopposed.

24:18 Moore is unopposed.

24:18 Okay.

24:19 Yes, he is.

24:19 As I as I look down to my trusty notes,

24:21 West Virginia second district, he is unopposed.

24:23 So you can't lose if nobody else is running against you.

24:26 Um so so we were talking about of course the Nebraska Senate race.

24:30 Um any two is is is very interesting

24:33 because there's been so much conversation about the blue

24:36 dot and sort of where that goes uh

24:38 from a national perspective uh during this midterm year.

24:43 Uh you're hearing a lot more from Don Bacon ever since he did decide to retire.

24:47 Uh he he still supports the president in a lot of things,

24:49 but he has also questioned um a lot of things that the president uh has done.

24:54 Um what is the Democratic primary for any two looking like?

24:59 Jeffrey, what are what are the polls uh telling you

25:01 guys about where we may be headed for this race?

25:04 So, we don't really have much polling.

25:06 Uh there was a an internal poll released,

25:08 I think, in January by John Kavanaaugh's campaign.

25:11 He's a state senator.

25:12 He's one of the leading candidates in the race.

25:14 Uh but we don't have any really recent data at all.

25:17 Uh on the polling front and you know in a race like

25:19 this, it is mostly going to be internal polls for a house race.

25:22 You're not going to get a lot of independent polling.

25:26 Is that just because it's Nebraska or No, that's because it's almost any very

25:31 few US House primaries get independent polling.

25:35 Um it's harder to pull a house district than it is to pull a state.

25:38 And in most cases, those are not the same thing.

25:41 uh you know, Wyoming would beg to differ,

25:42 but it's also hard harder to pull a seat

25:44 like Wyoming uh because the population is not as large.

25:48 Um so so really Kavanaaugh is the the one of the front runners.

25:53 He's viewed as more progressive.

25:54 He has the endorsement of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

25:57 Uh but his main challenger seems to be uh uh Denise Powell,

26:01 who is a political strategist and seems to have the support

26:05 of the sort of the more center-left portion of the party.

26:10 uh the new Democratic uh the New Democrats who are

26:12 sort of the center-left caucus in Congress and the House,

26:15 they've they've endorsed her and spent money on and they're they're there,

26:20 you know, their independent expenditure group has spent money on her behalf.

26:23 There's actually been a ton of outside

26:25 spending uh against Kavanaaugh or for Powell.

26:29 And that's one of the big stories in this race is that Kavanaaugh,

26:31 you know, represents part of Omaha.

26:33 And so on paper at least, he would seemingly be the stronger candidate.

26:36 But Powell has got about it's about5 million dollars in outside spending

26:41 that has either attacked Kavanaaugh or supported

26:43 her which could perhaps boost her candidacy.

26:46 Um and so that's that's sort of the the big

26:49 question here and and critic there there are I mean there

26:52 are other layers and we could get into them if

26:54 you want but that's sort of the main the main situation.

26:57 What has been the crux of the attack ads that have been airing in that state?

27:00 Do you have a do you have a sense of what are the fault lines in that race?

27:05 So what's interesting is that Kavanaaugh because because

27:09 Powell has gotten so much outside money support.

27:11 He has tried to turn this against her as you know which is understandable if

27:16 you're getting outspent to that degree by outside

27:18 groups and basically calling her dark money Denise.

27:21 Uh one interesting angle and you mentioned the blue dot.

27:25 Uh so again the Omaha based second district

27:27 I think you guys were already talking about it.

27:29 It deliver has tends to deliver one electoral

27:32 vote in presidential elections for Democrats in recent years.

27:35 uh because Nebraska and Maine are the only two states

27:37 that aortion some of their electoral votes by congressional district.

27:40 Everybody else is winner take all statewide.

27:43 Well, the current makeup of the state senate in Nebraska,

27:47 which is technically nonpartisan, formally nonpartisan,

27:50 but at the end of the day,

27:50 everybody knows that most are Republicans or Democrats.

27:54 Uh the and again, it's a unicameal state legislature.

27:57 It's the only state in the country that has only one chamber.

27:59 Uh they got rid of the the lower house in the 30s uh during the New Deal.

28:04 um the the or maybe it was even earlier than that, but it was a long time ago.

28:08 So, they've been unicamel for a long time ago.

28:10 A long time.

28:12 The way the rules of the Nebraska state senate

28:14 work is that you can filibuster and block legislation.

28:19 And that has happened in recent times right ahead of the 2024 election.

28:22 And it was one of the reasons why Nebraska did not switch

28:24 its rules for assigning electoral votes to win or take all statewide,

28:29 which would, you know, would have added one more into President Trump's tally

28:34 because Nebraska overall is a very Republican leading state.

28:38 uh Kavanaaugh, critics of Kavanaaugh, people who want someone else to win,

28:42 have claimed if Kavanaaugh wins this primary and ends

28:46 up winning the election uh in in November,

28:49 he will step down from the Senate and then the governor,

28:52 who is a Republican, Jim Pan,

28:54 actually has the ability to appoint Kavanaaugh's replacement.

28:57 So, he would, you know,

28:58 almost certainly appoint someone who is of a Republican ilk.

29:02 And uh as such that could put at risk that filibuster proof

29:08 line and it's it's like right on the line that that opponents

29:11 of changing the rules for the electoral college are essentially right

29:14 they have just enough to to block legislation on this issue.

29:18 And so some people who are opposing Kavana are

29:20 saying well we can't we can't elect him because he

29:22 if he loses that seat we might you know

29:23 lose the blue dot and lose the one electoral vote.

29:26 Kavanaaugh has countered this by saying democrats are doing well.

29:29 Well, we're in a position where we're going to probably

29:30 pick up a few seats in the state senate.

29:32 Like not take a majority.

29:34 It's going to be Republican leaning regardless,

29:35 but enough to hold on to that that uh

29:38 that filibuster proof minority, if you will.

29:41 And Jeeoff, I hate to interrupt you.

29:42 We're going to have to leave it there.

29:43 We got to take a quick break, but when we come back,

29:45 I know you're going to be with us later on, but we

29:47 will be back to the Hills Decision Desk 2026 data nerd.

29:50 Stay with us.

31:54 All right, welcome back everybody to the Hills Decision Desk 26 data nerds.

32:00 We are watching the Nebraska and the West Virginia primaries tonight.

32:05 Just to get you caught up, uh Carol Miller in West Virginia's

32:08 first congressional district has won her primary.

32:10 Shelley Mor Capo, the incumbent senator from West Virginia,

32:13 has won her uh primary.

32:16 So, those are just the early results uh

32:18 that have come in thus far as we continue uh for the votes to be counted in West

32:21 Virginia and for the polls to close in Nebraska.

32:24 Uh joining us now, Scott Tranter, director of data science at DDHQ.

32:29 Scott, thank you so much for being with us tonight.

32:31 Really appreciate it.

32:32 How you guys doing?

32:34 I didn't realize you guys took commercial breaks.

32:35 I thought we were on streaming.

32:37 Hey, man, you got to pay the bills somehow, right?

32:39 Every little bit counts, especially during this election season.

32:43 Um, Scott, first time I've spoken to you in a while.

32:46 Uh, the question I give everybody who joins us here on Data

32:49 Nerds is what are you watching for tonight during these primaries?

32:54 I'm not going to lie, there's not a lot to watch tonight.

32:57 It's not super exciting.

32:58 We're going to talk about other things tonight.

33:00 Look, the big one was Shelley Moore Capital,

33:02 which that race was called about 10 minutes ago.

33:04 Yeah.

33:04 In West Virginia.

33:05 And look, it's an incumbent who is definitely going to win.

33:09 Um, but you're looking at margins, right?

33:11 Same thing with Pete Rickettts coming up.

33:13 Um, I heard Jeffrey talking about that earlier.

33:15 We're looking at margins, but we're looking at margins the same way

33:17 a sports person goes to spring training and says,

33:21 "Look, that shortstop looks a little bit healthier this time.

33:24 Maybe they're going all the way." I mean, look, it's fun to talk about.

33:27 It's interesting, but spring trading does not a World Series MVP make.

33:31 So, with that said, then uh just overall your 35,000 macro

33:35 view of uh these primaries that we have had thus far,

33:39 the ones that are still on the calendar, of course,

33:42 looking ahead to the big Texas runoff and the GOP Senate primary there.

33:47 Uh what really gets your blood flowing?

33:49 Which which races which states are you really

33:51 watching for as the primary calendar rolls on?

33:55 I'm glad you brought up Texas.

33:56 I'm pulling that up now.

33:57 Where is my Texas?

34:00 Ah, because I want to pull up the market for it.

34:02 And I see Don, you got Don in the back.

34:04 He's waiting.

34:06 We could bring it back in so we could talk about it because

34:08 that's my favorite thing is let's look at the markets on this one.

34:11 Right.

34:11 So, Texas Senate primary, right?

34:14 We got Ken Paxton here.

34:15 I guess we could blow this up a little bit.

34:17 This is the poly market one.

34:19 Let's look at the couch one.

34:20 It's got a little bit more volume.

34:22 $13 million.

34:22 We got Ken Paxton at 62 cents.

34:24 John Cornin at 38.

34:26 Um, that one's been going back and forth, right?

34:28 Like if we look at this market over the last month and I'll zoom in so

34:32 you guys because I know we we got to talk to your graphics people, right?

34:35 So over the last month, in fact, we'll go over the last week, right?

34:39 So March 3rd, 2026, we had Ken Paxton and 81%.

34:44 So that's Cali, right?

34:45 Everyone knows what a prediction market is.

34:47 People put their money where their mouth is and they say, "Hey,

34:51 my money says that it's Ken Paxton." All of a sudden,

34:53 March 3rd drops down to basically 5346.

34:56 the markets thought something there and then all of a sudden it jumped

34:59 out to John Cornin um and Paxton and again it's going back and forth.

35:04 Why is that doing that?

35:05 Let's take a look at this here.

35:07 Let's flip another one because we keep with you guys polling averages

35:13 which what makes my favorite thing is what makes these lines move?

35:18 Crazy stuff, right?

35:19 People do ads, people say stupid stuff, debates happen, all that kind of stuff.

35:24 But what a lot moves this stuff is these polling averages.

35:27 What we've seen the polling averages,

35:29 especially after that March 3rd primary when when um John

35:32 Cornin didn't get enough to necessarily win um avoid a runoff,

35:37 but he actually outperformed.

35:38 All of a sudden, the polling averages coming out of that really

35:41 evened up and you can kind of see it going back and forth,

35:44 especially over the last month, and it's tightening up a little bit.

35:46 This is one we've got that that that that runoff coming up in a couple weeks.

35:50 This one is going to be the big one.

35:52 It kicked off our primary season.

35:54 essentially in the first week of March and it's going

35:56 to be a big one coming up in a couple weeks.

35:57 Everyone's going to be looking at LA mayor and California and things like that.

36:00 But these are the kind of data points, you know,

36:02 I'm looking at and I know we're talking Nebraska, West Virginia tonight,

36:05 but um you know, as we wait to see what kind of margin um you know,

36:10 uh uh Pete Ricketts is going to get.

36:12 It's good to see what else is going on out there.

36:14 Well, hey, look, they all used to be in the Big 12 together,

36:16 one big happy family.

36:16 So, we can bring in a little Texas with

36:19 Nebraska Senator Pete Ricks has got an opinion about the Big 12.

36:22 Exactly.

36:22 Right.

36:23 Drew, good.

36:24 What do you want to add?

36:24 What do you make of President Trump staying out of that Texas Senate primary?

36:28 There was a time where it looked like he was going to get in it.

36:30 Then Paxton makes this deal.

36:32 I'll get out.

36:32 If they pass the Save Act, President Trump ends up staying out of it.

36:36 Uh I I'm sure there's some Republican senators who are not too happy about that.

36:40 But nevertheless, doesn't seem like he's going to get involved.

36:44 Yeah.

36:44 Well, he might get involved, right?

36:46 He's famous for I'll never forget that Missouri

36:48 primary way back then where he's like

36:50 I I invoy I I endorse Eric and there was two Erics in the race.

36:53 It was the weekend before.

36:55 Um you know so look I I would

36:58 never say never with a President Trump endorsement.

37:00 Um it could certainly happen.

37:02 He always likes to come in near the end when he when

37:04 he when it appears he's going to pick on the winning side.

37:06 And right now as we just put out you know this race the polling says it's tied.

37:10 The prediction markets are a little bit different on that.

37:13 We'll see as they spend a whole lot of money on this going down the stretch.

37:16 Do you think the prediction markets underestimate John Cornin?

37:21 Because the prediction markets were heavy for Ken Paxton in the first

37:24 round and and he ended up coming out pretty well.

37:29 So yeah, that's a good question and I again I I I would love to hear I

37:32 got to ask I got to ask Geron about that because he was looking at that before.

37:36 Um, I think the prediction markets are a very

37:38 good reflection of the best available knowledge at that moment.

37:42 And at that moment on election night,

37:44 the best available knowledge had Ken Paxton winning.

37:47 Um, and so I think the markets

37:49 very quickly readjusted themselves to the best available

37:53 knowledge as those votes came in and Cordon

37:55 started outperforming his vocals in those counties.

37:58 I mean, we we we were looking at those markets live.

38:00 In fact, while I'm talking here, maybe we can even pull it up.

38:04 I guess we're I pulled it this up, but yeah.

38:06 No, the these things the the the conventional wisdom

38:09 on cornin and Paxton um I I think is a you

38:12 know the markets are a reflection of that and I

38:14 think there's still some twists and turns to go.

38:16 Look, Cornin and Paxton don't like each other.

38:18 Tens of millions of dollars have been spent against

38:20 each other and for both these guys it's somewhat existential.

38:23 John Cornin been in the Senate way longer than I've been alive

38:27 been in been in in Congress way longer than I've been alive.

38:31 Um, you know, there was there was there was a time

38:33 when he was thought to be a presidential candidate or VP pick.

38:37 This is not how he wants to go out against a guy that he

38:40 thinks shouldn't probably be he probably thinks he should be in jail right now.

38:44 Ken Pax, on the other hand, has bet his entire political career on on um,

38:48 you know, the last 10 years supporting Donald Trump,

38:50 has been on the front lines of being very supportive of the president's agenda,

38:55 really sold out to that, and it's paid off for him.

38:57 He has risen in the ranks.

38:58 He's wildly popular.

39:00 um you could attribute him still being in the primary in the runoff

39:03 to the fact that he had that kind of Trump support because

39:06 there was talk about maybe him

39:08 dropping out after underperforming in that primary

39:10 but you know as he said his supporters encouraged him to stay in.

39:14 So I think that that race it's existential

39:16 for both of them because the loser it could be

39:20 the end of their of their of their or at least

39:21 the twilight the down trend of their political career.

39:25 Yeah.

39:25 Look, we we talk a lot about um you know,

39:29 affordability and the issues that are driving people to the polls

39:33 uh in these primaries and in this November midterms.

39:36 Uh what I've been doing the last couple of weeks since since I've been doing

39:38 these primary nights is immediately going to TripleA

39:40 to see what the gas prices are doing.

39:42 And gas is above just one cent, but gas is above $4 a gallon in Texas.

39:47 And I say this as a born and bred Texan.

39:50 I do not remember ever seeing gas over $4

39:52 in the state of Texas uh in my lifetime.

39:55 I I may be wrong.

39:56 Somebody who's been around this plane much more

39:58 than I have uh can certainly tell me.

40:00 But when you think about the affordability

40:02 conversation uh and the war with Iran,

40:06 when you have Ken Paxton who's very much MAGA through and through,

40:09 John Cornin also supporting the president here in terms

40:11 of his his desires and goals for the war.

40:14 It's interesting to see if affordability is playing that big

40:17 of a role in this primary or if it is.

40:20 I am simply more conservative than you are.

40:24 So, a couple things on affordability and you you bring

40:29 up um you know gas prices and we can talk about

40:31 in the context of Texas and then I I brought up

40:33 the Donald Trump approval rating here which we'll talk through here.

40:36 Look, at the end of the day,

40:37 whether whenever you look at polling or you sit in focus groups,

40:41 the average American does not think about politics on a daily basis,

40:44 they think about what's on TV, what am I going to have for dinner,

40:47 what are my kids doing today, where am I going on vacation,

40:50 how's my job going, normal stuff, right?

40:52 And so all of a sudden,

40:53 when normal stuff that they do starts having causing problems for them,

40:58 then they start looking around and being like, "Huh,

40:59 what's causing me problems?" In this case, you bring up gas.

41:02 Everyone's got to buy gas.

41:04 Even if you live in the city, what gets trucked into the store that you take

41:07 the metro to Dubai gets trucked in by gas, flown in by gas, whatever it is.

41:11 And so as those prices raise, as people say, "Huh, that plane trip,

41:16 that vacation I want to take this summer,

41:18 that plane trip's more expensive, that car trip's more expensive,

41:21 whatever I'm looking to buy is more expensive,

41:23 they start looking around to blame." And look,

41:25 these campaigns also, you you see in these campaigns,

41:27 these campaign ads are very quick to blame.

41:29 Look, gas prices are high because of you or gas

41:31 prices are high because of how you voted here.

41:34 And so they kind of feed into that and I think you're

41:36 seeing the voters's reaction here as they assign blame to where it is.

41:39 I think we can see that a little bit

41:41 nationally outside of Texas nationally with the approval level.

41:44 You bring up gas again.

41:45 Look, the war in Iran has obviously carried on, you know,

41:49 we're 8 10 weeks into it and so gas prices are high.

41:52 It's a very very uh the Middle East is very tied into oil straight removals,

41:56 all that kind of stuff.

41:56 So you may not understand exactly what's going

41:58 on, but you see the gas prices is high.

42:01 You see it being talked about on the news

42:02 and you start looking around who's to blame here.

42:04 And we can kind of see that with the Donald Trump disapproval rating, right?

42:07 So this orange line is the amount

42:09 of people nationally who disapprove of Donald Trump.

42:12 And right before the war started, you know, in January, February,

42:15 it was ticking up a little bit,

42:16 but we were in the mid50s and then it ticked down.

42:19 And then right before the war started, he was at 54% disapproval.

42:24 And as of today, he's at 56.

42:26 Now everyone would be like two points.

42:27 That's not a whole whole whole lot of movement.

42:29 But I would also say the approval has gone down as well, right?

42:33 Right before the war started about 55 and now down

42:36 to uh I'm sorry at 42 and now down below 40.

42:40 So there's a lot of people who are moving both directions here.

42:43 And obviously it's it's binary.

42:44 But these types of things,

42:46 these types of trends and averages are what we look for.

42:48 One and two point movements are very are are a big deal,

42:51 especially over a couple of months.

42:53 All right.

42:53 So, can we just quickly peer past

42:55 the primary in Texas if you are James Talerico,

42:59 the Democrat who's uh running in that race?

43:02 Would you rather face a Ken Paxton and all the scandals

43:06 that he's had in his career or a John Cordon, Jordan John Cornin,

43:10 who would come into that race as an incumbent, as somebody who, you know,

43:15 may be looked upon negatively by the core

43:18 MAGA base of the Republican party in Texas?

43:22 So, look, if you're James Telerico, I think you're just happy to be here, right?

43:26 You won a very bruising primary.

43:29 Jasmine Crockett, um, you know, h had a pretty big base of support.

43:32 As we look here, he won 5246.

43:36 Um, and especially near the end on that race,

43:38 it was it was a little bit unclear who was going to be able to take it away.

43:41 What I would say about James Hiller Rico is look,

43:44 I imagine his consultants in the back room are saying,

43:46 "Look, we'd rather face Ken Paxton because they're looking

43:49 at a mountain of of data and a mountain of opposition research.

43:53 I mean, just go look at the tweets about his ex-wife,

43:55 you know, saying that he was, you know,

43:57 uh Ken Paxton is was committed adultery um multiple

44:01 times during their marriage." And it wasn't an accusation.

44:03 She tweeted this out.

44:05 This was like great campaign fodder for some of these guys.

44:07 Ken Paxton indicted now obviously acquitted and and and I believe uh

44:13 pardon I don't know if he was pardoned I know he was seeking

44:15 one at one point but you know all those those backgrounds so James

44:18 Kil Rico's consultants really want want to face uh a Paxton but look

44:24 Cornin been in been in Congress for for dozens of years they can

44:28 easily pin on John Cornin look you've had this guy for 20 30

44:32 years it's time for a change and so I think Telerico looks

44:35 at either candidate he's got a path um at least have a good message.

44:40 But I would say structurally speaking, Texas is a red state.

44:43 And I understand, look,

44:44 we at some point we could dedicate an entire show and I know you've

44:47 had some guests on like Mike Madrid in the past who who study this intensely,

44:51 but look, Texas is solidly Republican.

44:54 Democrats get very close each time,

44:56 and they might they might get close enough to uh

44:58 to to really make it close on this Senate race, too.

45:02 But it's it's the the fundamentals are are

45:04 are with the GOP in the state of Texas.

45:06 Yeah.

45:06 Look, Tyler Rico's pathway is he's going to have to run up the score in Houston,

45:10 El Paso, Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, which most Democrats usually do.

45:15 It's that Texas is a giant state.

45:18 It's rural.

45:19 Uh he's going to have to do well

45:20 in places that Democrats don't usually uh do well in.

45:25 But he has the Christianity that he wears on his sleeve.

45:30 He leads with empathy.

45:31 Uh he's not afraid, much like Better Orc was not

45:33 afraid to go anywhere in Texas to talk to people.

45:37 Um Beto got close.

45:38 I will say um Talico may be wanting to run against Ted

45:43 Cruz because that's probably sort of the the the person who's who's

45:47 who a Democrat is at least set up uh to beat best

45:50 just because as even though he has won multiple elections in Texas,

45:54 not the most popular Texas senator uh that is out there.

45:58 But it's going to be interesting who ultimately comes out on top.

46:00 I believe uh the margin in Texas,

46:03 Wesley Hunt got about 300,000 votes or so in that March primary.

46:07 That's who is ultimately going to make or break

46:09 this race for Kim Paxton or John Cornin.

46:12 Was the Wesley Hunt vote all anti- Cornin?

46:14 Was it I don't want to vote for Kim Paxton

46:16 or John Cornin or I'm going to stay stay at home?

46:19 That's the questions that we're going to be watching

46:20 as we get closer and closer to that Texas primary.

46:24 But tonight, all about West Virginia, all about Nebraska.

46:27 Scott, we're going to uh say goodbye to you,

46:29 but I know you're going to be back in about 15 minutes uh with us.

46:33 Uh want to go ahead and bring in some

46:35 more friends joining us here on primary Tuesday night.

46:39 We've got Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report joining us.

46:44 And we've got Julia Mueller,

46:46 who's going to be joining us as well later on tonight.

46:48 Let's go ahead and bring in Jessica first if we can.

46:51 Oh, they're both there.

46:52 Hello, uh ladies.

46:53 So glad to have you with us on this Tuesday night.

46:56 I know I'm a broken record, guys, but same question.

46:58 Jessica, what are you watching in Nebraska or West Virginia tonight?

47:02 I'm watching the Nebraska Senate primaries.

47:04 Aren't we all?

47:05 Aren't we all?

47:06 Legal marijuana now primary.

47:09 Yeah.

47:09 Yeah.

47:10 Yeah.

47:10 It's uh it's it's interesting.

47:11 It's it's it's palace intrigue, but I guess on the electoral version,

47:15 I've been covering politics for a pretty long time.

47:17 Never heard a candidate say, "I can't wait to win so I can drop out." Right.

47:21 Yeah.

47:21 It's really fascinating.

47:22 So, um the Yeah.

47:25 Yeah, I mean you have Cindy Burbank that said that she

47:27 will step aside um versus the proTrump pastor um William Forbes.

47:33 So I'm watching to see who wins in that Democratic primary.

47:36 You know, we shifted our rating of this race

47:38 last month and I I do think that Burbank

47:40 is the favorite here that they've educated their voters

47:43 enough to to do that, but then you know,

47:45 you have in the legal marijuana now um if Mike Marvin wins,

47:50 it sounds like he would step down um in that instance.

47:53 So, uh, you know, it's a lot of because, you know,

47:57 I get asked a lot about some of these independent races.

48:00 Uh, you know, there's independents on the ballot trying to sort of run

48:04 the same gambit that that Dan Osborne did last time in Montana,

48:09 in South Dakota, in Idaho.

48:11 I mean, the difference is is that you've sort

48:13 of got to have a clear shot at the Republican,

48:17 and that's what Dan Osborne has the chance to do here.

48:20 Uh, Julia, let's go ahead and bring you in.

48:22 Thanks for joining us on another Tuesday primary night.

48:25 Appreciate it as always.

48:26 Uh what are you looking for?

48:27 What are your sources telling you out there

48:29 as we watch the primary calendar continue to roll on?

48:33 Yeah, happy election night.

48:35 Another Tuesday primary.

48:36 Um I'm watching also the the Senate race in Nebraska and you described

48:41 the contours of that race which are very um particular very unique um as we're

48:46 seeing and it's an opening for an independent uh which you know there are

48:50 only a couple independents currently holding seats

48:52 in either the House or the Senate.

48:55 Independents are particularly excited about

48:58 the opportunities this cycle presents

49:00 in particular uh because there's frustration with both major parties.

49:04 You know, the Democratic Party brand really took a hit after losses in 2024.

49:09 Republicans are sort of figuring out what

49:12 their brand is going to look like after Trump.

49:15 Um, so independents, you know, they're always looking for opportunities to make

49:19 inroads and break into the, you know,

49:21 two major party system.

49:23 But uh a lot of people I've talked to in the independent space uh

49:26 feel that this cycle uniquely presents

49:29 an opportunity um for some of these candidates

49:32 to to break in and maybe make some inroads if not for this cycle

49:35 than for cycles ahead capitalizing

49:37 on this frustration with the two major parties.

49:39 So that's something to watch out for with Osborne's candidacy tonight.

49:43 Do we have Oh, sorry.

49:44 Go ahead.

49:44 I'm sorry.

49:45 Go ahead.

49:45 Oh, no.

49:46 Sorry.

49:46 Like Scott just said, you know, I know this is a sleepier primary night,

49:49 but we certainly have a calendar that is um going

49:53 to keep us wide awake for the rest of this month.

49:55 So, I'm also looking this Saturday we have a Senate primary

49:58 in Louisiana that will be on the on the radar as well.

50:02 I'm already starting to chug coffee tonight for next week because

50:05 that is the the next two weeks are really big there.

50:09 We got a lot of states to get to.

50:10 Yeah, Georgia.

50:11 Uh that Georgia race is going to be really interesting next

50:14 week in both the Senate and both governor's sides um of races.

50:19 We've got some intriguing uh Alabama next week as well.

50:23 Kentucky.

50:23 This is like college bowl season.

50:25 You know, you have to play some warm-up games.

50:27 I mean, it's all the first one.

50:28 And eventually we're going to get to the we're

50:30 getting to the Orange Bowl coming up.

50:33 The poptart bowl of electoral.

50:35 This is the tax slayer bowl.

50:37 And then we're going to get to the big Yeah.

50:38 Who gets eaten at the end though, you know, if it's the Pop-Tart bowl?

50:41 Uh, Julia, one question.

50:43 Do we know obviously Dan Dan Osourne running as an independent?

50:46 Would he caucus with the Democrats or do we have any sort of inkling

50:50 of where he is politically speaking if

50:52 you had to just remove the independent label?

50:56 I believe he hasn't said whether he'd caucus with either party, which, you know,

51:00 that's the really the question because especially in this landscape,

51:03 both major parties are trying to pad their numbers, minimize their losses.

51:07 That's what we're seeing with this redistricting.

51:09 So, an independent candidate could really throw a wrench in the works.

51:13 Um, at the same time, you know, for Democrats,

51:16 if there is an independent and you know,

51:18 as we saw that the Democratic party in Nebraska is

51:21 trying to create an avenue for Osborne to move forward,

51:24 you know, what it does is it takes out a Republican

51:27 if if he is able to unseed Rickettts in this uphill climb.

51:30 So, you know, uh it's it remains unclear, I think, at this point,

51:33 you know, whether how faithful he would be or how, you know,

51:36 much he'd interact with Democrats on the Hill if he gets there,

51:40 but at the very least it would help

51:41 Democrats by removing um Ricketts from the picture.

51:44 Uh Julia, I'm going stick with you for a second because you you mentioned

51:48 redistricting and there's been a slew of news since we last spoke on uh

51:52 Indiana primary night where so much

51:54 of the conversation was about the redistricting and President

51:57 Trump uh running challengers against these incumbents

52:00 and he had a pretty good night.

52:01 Since then, we've had the Virginia

52:03 Supreme Court strike down their referendum there.

52:06 Uh we've had the Voting Rights Act decision come down uh from the Supreme Court.

52:10 I believe Mississippi or excuse me,

52:12 Missouri got its uh redistricting done today.

52:15 Uh where the city of Kansas City is sort of split.

52:18 Memphis uh split now and and sort of leans in that Republican uh way.

52:25 How has this changed campaigns?

52:27 Like in Virginia, I remember interviewing people who thought they

52:30 were going to run in one district, now they're not.

52:32 Uh depending on whether the Supreme Court ultimately weighs

52:35 in and if it sides with the Democrats in Virginia.

52:38 How is this sort of redistricting

52:40 minute-by-minute change shaping the campaign season?

52:46 Well, for one thing, it's throwing a lot of chaos at voters in particular.

52:51 uh to again point to Louisiana this weekend.

52:54 Um they'll hold the Senate race uh uh the Senate

52:57 primary this weekend um and and other races in the state,

53:01 but the House primaries have been put on pause

53:04 uh for until a later date as the state deals

53:08 with these developments out of the Supreme Court's decision on Louisiana's

53:12 maps and the state legislature sort of takes action there.

53:15 So that's, you know, a piece of confusion for voters.

53:18 They'll cast their ballots in one race.

53:20 some had already turned in their ballots um

53:23 but those won't be counted for the house race.

53:25 So there it creates a logistical lots

53:27 of logistical questions for voters in terms

53:30 of you know when their primaries are happening when they cast their ballots.

53:33 We saw the same thing uh in a way in Virginia.

53:36 They delayed their primaries to make

53:38 room for the referendum vote on redistricting.

53:42 So lots of chaos and it also causes

53:45 a lot of logistical hurdles for election officials.

53:48 Now, for the large part, they're saying, of course, they can handle it.

53:51 They have all these plans in place.

53:53 Um, but, you know, it it uh, you know,

53:55 shakes up the calendar as people were starting to make plans and, um,

53:59 certainly as well for candidates and their campaigns,

54:02 you know, looking to fundraising and events.

54:05 Any changes to the calendar or to the processes um,

54:09 can throw a wrench in the works there as well.

54:10 Well, look, as a sign of this new normal that we're in, Jeff Landry,

54:14 governor of Louisiana, was on 60 Minutes over the weekend, uh, and was asked,

54:18 you know, hey, you've already got these ballots that you said now.

54:20 What are you going to do?

54:20 We're just going to discard them.

54:21 And the journal said, you you make it seem like that's not a big deal.

54:24 And he was basically like, yeah, I mean, look, it's not my fault.

54:26 The the Supreme Court ruled the way that it did.

54:29 So, we just adjusted.

54:30 Yeah, we do have that statewide primary uh, you know, on on the 16th, uh,

54:34 which is a fun race on the GOP side of things,

54:36 but then you have these other races that are suspended.

54:38 Uh sort of same question to you Jessica.

54:40 Given what you guys do over the Cook Political Report,

54:42 how has this changed what you are able

54:44 to sort of glean about some of these races

54:47 given that the numbers are just constantly

54:49 changing as the lines on the map change?

54:51 Yeah, I mean I'll give a shout out to my colleagues that cover redistricting,

54:54 Aaron CVY, um Matthew Klein, and uh the great David Wasserman,

54:58 uh who you can find at redistrict who has no no shortage of things to report on.

55:03 Um, so our current estimate is that, you know,

55:06 before Virginia it looked like it was sort of going to be a wash

55:09 when you threw in Florida and different

55:10 things and Friday was a flurry of activity.

55:13 I that just felt like, you know,

55:15 one thing happening after the other with with Virginia getting struck down.

55:19 Now it seems like it could be a gain of between

55:22 between six to seven seats for Republicans is our current estimate.

55:26 Um, and still Democrats are still favored to take the House.

55:31 they're no longer the overwhelming favorites.

55:33 So, we have on our website, you can go there,

55:36 we have a redistricting tracker that you can take

55:38 a look at where we're tracking all of the court cases, all of the challenges.

55:42 I mean, you know, I've been most interested

55:45 in Tennessee's actually because that's where I'm from originally.

55:48 I mean, it's just fascinating.

55:50 I have family that live in Nashville that live close to each other

55:53 and they're in different completely different districts

55:55 and now Memphis is split into, you know, you've got what, you know,

55:59 you've got one district running to from West Tennessee into Middle Tennessee.

56:02 I mean, it's just the way that they have cut that up is just I mean,

56:06 it's just something to behold certainly.

56:09 Um, so I'm watching there.

56:11 You know, I know that they've filed challenges um because there is there

56:15 is a statute that you Tennessee is not supposed to redistrict mid decade,

56:18 but I mean, what are laws nowadays?

56:21 Hey, look, I I've been saying this.

56:23 At least everybody's admitting we're just openly gerrymandering at this point.

56:26 At least they're not trying to hide the football, which I guess credit to them.

56:29 Yeah, there's that.

56:29 Though, I mean, it looks like South Carolina,

56:31 they were trying to push that today and doesn't look like they're gonna

56:33 get that one done to try to draw out um James Klyurn there.

56:37 So yeah, I mean, who who knows if the, you know,

56:41 certainly I think the Indiana redistricting that happened,

56:44 there was such momentum and just the amount of money that they poured

56:48 in there where they were able to get state senators um and push them out,

56:52 but you know, state senators in South Carolina aren't up for two more years.

56:56 Is there still going to be the same momentum to get them off?

56:59 How long does Trump's retribution uh go, I think, is a real question.

57:04 What do you make of the notion that it could backfire

57:07 on Republicans where you are basically taking Democrats out of these safe

57:11 Democrat seats and putting them in safe Republican seats and diluting

57:15 the Republican vote to a certain extent and if there is a wave

57:19 election like we saw maybe in what that been 2010 election

57:24 where you have that big of a wave that it could compound

57:27 itself where you're all of a sudden making these what were formerly

57:30 safe Republican districts more competitive especially

57:32 if you have a Democratic wave.

57:34 I think there's a real concern about

57:35 that in some of these Texas and Florida districts really.

57:38 Um, you know, there were even some members in Florida that were a little

57:42 hesitant to do this because they didn't want to give up their um,

57:45 you know, their their big districts where they have a a very comfortable um,

57:51 very comfortable cushion there.

57:52 Um, but I've certainly heard in Texas, you know,

57:55 when you have James Tarico that's leading the top

57:57 of the ticket that there's a lot of energy there.

58:00 uh that he's going to have a ton of money to essentially be able

58:03 to run the type of coordinated program that Bato was able to do in 2018.

58:07 Uh that, you know, I'm not sure that they can get to five.

58:10 You know, maybe it's just three that they pick up.

58:12 That's still three seats that like gets them closer um you know,

58:15 than than they would have before in the in the whole thing.

58:19 But, uh you know, I'm you know,

58:21 because they're basing this on the 2024 numbers and especially

58:26 there along those those border states in the Latino voters.

58:29 Yeah.

58:29 I mean that I'm not sure that they're going to hit those same

58:32 numbers that they were if you're basing it just on the 2024 numbers.

58:35 All right.

58:36 Uh we've got about a minute left.

58:37 Julia, I know you're going to be leaving us,

58:38 but want to give you a second just to weigh

58:40 in just one sort of parting thought on this Tuesday night.

58:43 It doesn't have to be about Nebraska or West Virginia,

58:44 but just sort of what you have your eyes

58:46 on as we move through May and into June.

58:50 Yeah.

58:50 You know, I'm curious to watch how much of a factor Trump

58:54 continues to play in all of these races this week and next week.

58:58 uh you know, Trump is obviously, you know, looms over a lot of these races like

59:02 we saw in Indiana in those state senate races.

59:05 Um at the same time, he's not on the ballot.

59:07 Uh and I know you guys were talking earlier about, you know,

59:09 Trump's um uh approval rating and how that could play in.

59:13 So, I'm watching, you know,

59:14 all these different ways that Trump can factor into these races,

59:17 whether it's through endorsement or his broader presence in the race.

59:21 All right, we're going to have to leave it there.

59:23 Julia, thank you so much for your time.

59:25 Drew, Jessica, don't go anywhere.

59:26 Scott Tranter's coming back with us.

59:27 You're watching the Hills Decision Desk26 data nerds.

59:30 We're back after this.

1:01:35 Welcome back to the Hills Decision Desk 26 data nerds.

1:01:39 We are watching the Nebraska and West Virginia primaries tonight.

1:01:44 Corey Smith, Drew Petro, Jessica Taylor, and Scott Tranter here with you.

1:01:48 Uh most of us or all of us here in Washington DC.

1:01:50 I should say.

1:01:51 Uh so let let's get back into um Nebraska

1:01:55 and either the Senate race or the blue dot race.

1:01:58 Um Democrats looking at this again as a seat that Don Bacon,

1:02:02 a Republican, won, but Kla Harris won it in 24.

1:02:06 Uh Drew, as you look at that race, sort of what stands out to you,

1:02:10 what do you think perhaps Democrats are going to have

1:02:12 to do uh in order to get this seat?

1:02:15 Is it going to be an anti-Trump message or this is what we believe in?

1:02:19 this is how this is what we're going to do once

1:02:20 we have power cuz we were just talking within the break.

1:02:23 How much of a cushion let's say Democrats take back take back the house.

1:02:26 How much of a cushion does a potential speaker Hakee Jeff need to where he's not

1:02:31 running into the same problems that Kevin McCarthy

1:02:34 and now Speaker Mike Johnson are running into?

1:02:36 Well, you know, this is this is a great example of one

1:02:39 of those seats that Democrats are going to have to win if

1:02:41 they're first of all going to overcome the Republican advantage now

1:02:44 that we've seen after these redistricting

1:02:47 fights turned out in the Republican direction.

1:02:49 But across the country, you're going to have to if you're Democrats win

1:02:52 seats like this, it's expected to be a tough race, but it's definitely winnable.

1:02:56 Any district that Kla Harris won in 2024 is prime

1:03:01 district for Democrats to try to win back in this race.

1:03:05 You know, you have to think in Nebraska, it's a heavily agricultural state.

1:03:09 We've been reporting all year on some

1:03:11 of the problems that have been facing by farmers, not just from the tariffs,

1:03:14 but now from the closing of the straight

1:03:16 of Hormuz and the problem that's caused for fertilizer.

1:03:19 There are definitely some farmers

1:03:21 that are upset with Trump administration policy.

1:03:23 Of course, that has been a group that has tended

1:03:25 to vote Republican and has supported President Trump in the past.

1:03:29 So, we'll have to see uh especially as we get closer to election day,

1:03:33 what is happening in the current state of the economy,

1:03:36 what is happening with the war in Iran,

1:03:38 what is happening with gas prices because we know the price

1:03:40 of diesel is something that affects farmers to a great extent.

1:03:43 So, in a state like Nebraska that's heavily reliant on agriculture,

1:03:46 I think that's going to be important,

1:03:48 but this is a swingy district and this is a you know, this blue dot.

1:03:51 So there's definitely a progressive uh you know core in that in that seat

1:03:55 and it'll be very interesting to see how it shakes out.

1:03:59 But I think if Dem Democrats hope to have

1:04:01 the type of performance that they want to have this fall,

1:04:04 they're going to definitely need to to pick up a seat like that.

1:04:07 Uh Scott, I see you're sharing your screen

1:04:09 and polls just closed in Nebraska at 9:00 p.m.

1:04:13 local time and it appears that we've already got some vote

1:04:15 count coming in from Omaha uh in that Nebraska US Senate race.

1:04:20 Anything you can tell us there?

1:04:22 Looks like Burbank is hitting her vote goals,

1:04:26 which is kind of what the markets expect.

1:04:28 Oh, look, we even got some more out here.

1:04:29 Burbank 80% margins 80.

1:04:32 Now it's early.

1:04:33 I'm We don't have vote method based here.

1:04:37 Although I can show you a neat little tool.

1:04:38 This isn't public.

1:04:39 We can look at the vote drop.

1:04:41 Interestingly, yeah, look, this is Burbank um all the way on the US Senate side.

1:04:47 That's for sure.

1:04:48 Yeah.

1:04:48 Um, or go ahead.

1:04:49 I'm sorry, Jessica.

1:04:50 Yeah.

1:04:51 No, I mean, I think it was all I think that they Democrats there in Nebraska,

1:04:55 I think, got out the message that, you know,

1:04:57 there her opponent was a proTrump uh pastor, anti-abortion, you know,

1:05:04 allegedly put there on the ballot by Ricketts and different things.

1:05:07 So, I think that, you know, Burbank got her message out and yeah,

1:05:10 she's she's running to win the nomination and then

1:05:13 will expectedly promptly drop off of the ballot.

1:05:16 What what do you guys make of that strategy on the part of Democrats?

1:05:20 We are so unpopular and so toxic in Nebraska

1:05:24 that we have to run a candidate who is going

1:05:26 to promise to drop out so that somebody who's not

1:05:29 a Democrat can possibly challenge the Republican uh the Republican incumbent.

1:05:33 I I I will say this, it's it's an understanding at least perhaps

1:05:36 on the part of this candidate and the part of our voters that math matters.

1:05:40 Doesn't matter whether they got a D or an R.

1:05:42 Do you have do you have the numbers?

1:05:44 And it's interesting to see Democrats say we don't

1:05:48 and let's figure out a way that we can

1:05:50 put the math into our favor even if the guy doesn't have a D next to his name.

1:05:54 Yeah.

1:05:54 I mean, as Julia was talking about earlier, they're trying this, like I said,

1:05:59 Osborne kind of um pioneered this last time,

1:06:03 but I do think that it's sort of going back to our football analogy,

1:06:06 it's a trick play that I think you can sort of only run once,

1:06:10 which is why I've been a little bit more skeptical of this.

1:06:13 I mean, he's, you know, if you look at the polling, he's leading in polling,

1:06:18 but he's getting 47% in the polls, which is what he got last time.

1:06:22 I mean, I think that he has a ceiling even as, you know, he has he said he he's,

1:06:28 you know, said, "I'm not going to say which party

1:06:30 I'm going to caucus with," or he he's even said,

1:06:32 "I don't want to caucus with either party." Well, functionally,

1:06:36 you have to be either team red or team blue to get committee assignments.

1:06:40 I think at one point he said that if the independent thing doesn't work out,

1:06:43 he might end up caucusing with the Democrats.

1:06:46 Yeah.

1:06:46 I mean, listen, I think he's a Democrat in sheep's clothing, you know,

1:06:49 just by evidence, by the hoops that they are jumping through in this primary.

1:06:53 His consultants, most of them are Democrats.

1:06:56 You know, this is not a big secret.

1:06:59 And, you know, I think last time he caught uh uh you know,

1:07:04 the the senator there, Deb Fischer, was asleep at the wheel.

1:07:08 Pete Ricketts is not going to is taking him seriously.

1:07:12 He also has more money than he knows what to do with his the Ricketts family can

1:07:16 put money in as much as they need to in order to try to save this race.

1:07:20 So, you know, we shifted this rating

1:07:22 in a likely Republican indicating that we're watching it.

1:07:25 But I still think Democrats should if if Nebraska is going

1:07:30 to an independent that is probably going to caucus with Democrats.

1:07:34 I mean, I think that we have we are beyond talking about Democrats taking

1:07:38 back the Senate that they have better opportunities next door in in Iowa really.

1:07:43 You know, you we're sort of talking about this, you know,

1:07:46 there there is this uh for instance Josh Turk who that primary is

1:07:50 coming up in a couple of weeks at the beginning of June there.

1:07:53 He's talked about this prairie populism and I think

1:07:57 as you were mentioning about uh Corey about the tariffs

1:08:01 and agriculture and everything that's a real concern and I

1:08:05 think that's something that Osborne is clearly running on.

1:08:07 He's running as this bluecollar um workingclass hero

1:08:11 and I think that that's sort of the path

1:08:13 forward if a state like Iowa is going to be in play as well in the Senate level.

1:08:18 All right, before we move forward,

1:08:19 let's go ahead and bring you uh some projections

1:08:21 that we have in that uh Nebraska US Senate race.

1:08:24 Cindy Burbank projected by DDHQ to win that race.

1:08:28 Pete Rickettts, the incumbent US senator for Nebraska on the Republican side,

1:08:32 projected to win his race.

1:08:33 And then in the governor's race, uh you've got Larry, excuse me, Lyn Walls,

1:08:38 who has won that race over Larry Marvin and uh Jim Pan,

1:08:42 the incumbent governor, uh winning his primary as well.

1:08:46 So, a slew of results coming in uh in uh Nebraska.

1:08:51 And if real quick, I'll go to West Virginia.

1:08:54 Nothing called other than the Sherry Morapo,

1:08:56 Shelley Morapo race uh which was called when our night first began.

1:09:00 So, that's sort of where things are uh right now.

1:09:03 Still waiting for West Virginia's House districts one and two, as well as Oh,

1:09:08 we got a Nebraska House one race in the Democratic primary.

1:09:11 So, that race uh is done.

1:09:13 Chris Bachamire and in uh New Nebraska US House District to uh Jim Kavanaaugh

1:09:20 the uh winner there John Kavanagh excuse me the winner there uh in Nebraska.

1:09:24 So that's where we one's been called.

1:09:27 Oh excuse me.

1:09:27 He's a leader.

1:09:28 I'm so sorry.

1:09:28 He's I got my looks very close.

1:09:32 He's in the lead only only by a little bit.

1:09:34 So yeah, that race uh not over uh Denise Pal running uh in a close second.

1:09:38 So, we'll see if she can ultimately uh catch up uh and and take

1:09:42 that race home uh on the Nebraska side of things for Democrats.

1:09:45 Um Scott, go ahead.

1:09:46 Go.

1:09:47 What are you looking at?

1:09:48 I got a question.

1:09:48 Jessica, you cover the governor for Cooks and Senate side, right?

1:09:54 Yes.

1:09:54 All right.

1:09:54 I've got to ask you.

1:09:55 I know we're in a lull.

1:09:56 There'll be a little bit more from Nebraska, but I got to ask you.

1:09:59 Um Oh, where is it?

1:10:01 South Carolina GOP primary.

1:10:06 Yeah.

1:10:04 Okay.

1:10:05 talk to me about um uh the Senate side.

1:10:09 I gotta pull up Nancy Mace's um we've got it.

1:10:14 Hold on.

1:10:15 Anyway, Nancy Mace, the the the the the primary in South Carolina.

1:10:19 What are we thinking?

1:10:20 I you know, it's going to go to a runoff.

1:10:22 I Mace I feel like has kind of hit her ceiling.

1:10:27 There have been so many negative stories about her.

1:10:30 Um you know, Alan Wilson, Pamvette have a lot of money.

1:10:33 Ralph Norman has just started spending his money.

1:10:36 I mean, this is such a quick like it's a quick turnaround uh two week runoff.

1:10:41 It's very quick there in South Carolina.

1:10:44 There is a self-funding candidate that didn't recently get in, Rod Ready.

1:10:48 Um whether he can kind of make a name,

1:10:50 but I mean, you know, this this is going to be,

1:10:52 you know, people getting 20% of the vote

1:10:55 that they're all kind of almost equally splitting it up.

1:10:58 So, it's all very much within the margin of error.

1:11:01 Um, you know, Allan Wilson,

1:11:02 he uh he kind of made it his he's the son of he's the son of Joe Wilson.

1:11:08 Um, the you exactly congressman.

1:11:11 Um, but he also there was there was a big murder trial there,

1:11:14 the Murdoch murder trial.

1:11:16 And so he helped sort of make his name there.

1:11:19 Pamela Avette has been endorsed by her running mate,

1:11:22 by her former running mate, uh, Henry McMaster, the outgoing governor.

1:11:26 Um, you know, she comes from the upstate.

1:11:29 She's from uh just outside of Greenville.

1:11:32 Uh shout out to Travelers Rest,

1:11:34 which is uh right outside of where I went to college at Ferman University.

1:11:38 Uh so Alan Wilson kind of in the Midlands.

1:11:41 Nancy Mace has some in the Low Country,

1:11:43 but Avette also has a home in uh Myrtle Beach that she can pull from.

1:11:48 So sort of the PD region there.

1:11:50 And then the question, you know,

1:11:52 Norman's just uh started spending his money and he comes from another sort

1:11:56 of vote rich area of Republican votes outside of uh sort of Rock Hill area,

1:12:02 outside of Charlotte, which is a big growing area of the state.

1:12:06 So, yeah, that primary is fascinating to me.

1:12:08 It's one that I've circled on my calendar.

1:12:10 Um if nothing else, because uh going to college

1:12:13 in South Carolina is what made me love politics.

1:12:16 Become involved that race too closely.

1:12:18 Yeah.

1:12:18 Just a little.

1:12:19 You said you said gubanatorial and senate, right?

1:12:22 I do.

1:12:22 Yeah.

1:12:22 Okay.

1:12:23 Um Scott, do you have something else you

1:12:24 wanted to add before I ask her about this?

1:12:25 I want to ask you one final question

1:12:27 on this and and it's cuz you're the South Carolina expert.

1:12:29 You look at this like I do.

1:12:31 Look, when we have this polling average here,

1:12:33 bunch of different polls that go in it.

1:12:34 We've seen Nancy Mace, excuse me, drop seven points in the last month.

1:12:39 All them are coalesing around 20 points average like you were saying earlier.

1:12:43 Yeah.

1:12:43 Look at all of these.

1:12:44 These are generally speaking Republican leading firms.

1:12:47 We got Coefficient.

1:12:48 We got, we got Stratus, and the ones we have highlighted here.

1:12:52 This one was sponsored by Nancy Mace.

1:12:54 Has six.

1:12:54 This one sponsored by six.

1:12:57 Can we trust any of this polling?

1:12:59 Like, is it possible in our average, we got Nancy Mace minus seven,

1:13:02 but could we be surprised with a Nancy Mace first or second?

1:13:07 I wouldn't be surprised if she I I would

1:13:10 still be surprised if she got into the runoff.

1:13:12 Would I be like completely floored?

1:13:14 No.

1:13:14 Just because they're all so close to each other.

1:13:17 If she finishes first, I would I would be pretty shocked.

1:13:20 I feel like probably Wilson or Avette

1:13:23 is could get is probably gonna finish first.

1:13:26 Um, you know, and then the question is, does Trump endorse in this race?

1:13:29 You know, certainly they're all making their overtures to him.

1:13:32 We know that he likes to go in.

1:13:34 I I you know, certainly team Trump is is

1:13:38 uh telegraphing that they are not fans of Nancy Mace,

1:13:41 especially after um with the Epstein uh vote and different things.

1:13:45 So, I could see him weighing in against her in some sort of public post.

1:13:51 Um, but his team has been tiptoeing around that for some time.

1:13:57 One final question for you, Jessica.

1:13:59 Bigger upset if it happens.

1:14:01 Well, we know this happened.

1:14:02 Cornin winning the first run in the runoff.

1:14:04 That was a pretty big upset.

1:14:05 We were kind of surprised

1:14:06 if Massie wins on Tuesday or Nancy Mace wins this primary.

1:14:10 Of those three, which I would call premier, Republican, primary season ones,

1:14:15 if any of those three happen, which one would you say would be the biggest one?

1:14:19 It might be Mace to me.

1:14:22 Mace.

1:14:21 Okay.

1:14:22 Yeah.

1:14:22 Yeah, I would put that one, too.

1:14:23 Mace would be the biggest surprise.

1:14:24 I think I think Massiey's probably got an edge

1:14:27 next Tuesday and Cornin was a fighter till the end.

1:14:29 So, I mean, Cornin Yeah, that surprised me.

1:14:32 I I I was very pessimistic on Cornin um early on and he

1:14:36 overperformed but the qu you know in the polling he which I

1:14:40 can't see is sort of where you all have the polling average

1:14:43 right now um you know can he sort of build on that 4243

1:14:47 really um you know but I've heard from my sources that you

1:14:51 know there he has more money to spend he has the better ground

1:14:55 game than Paxton has and in a runoff environment that can really make

1:15:00 a difference so would I shocked if he's able to pull it out.

1:15:04 No, I mean, uh, I would have thought actually that he would have

1:15:08 been the first could have been the first one out over Bill Cassidy,

1:15:11 but there's a chance this runoff on Saturday that maybe

1:15:14 Bill Cassidy doesn't even get a slot in the runoff.

1:15:16 Actually, I'm glad you brought up.

1:15:17 Yeah, Cassidy, that's another one related to this.

1:15:19 I think I got two more minutes and they should let us go longer.

1:15:22 Are you if you had to pick

1:15:23 go for as long as you want, Scott, as long as Rabbi not

1:15:25 if you had to pick one Democrat to upset in the Senate, right?

1:15:29 And let me let me refine that.

1:15:31 Who do you think is more likely to make a surprise win, OAF or Telerico?

1:15:38 And one could argue OAF winning in the Senate is a surprise.

1:15:42 Yeah.

1:15:42 I started to say I don't think Oaf's a surprise.

1:15:44 We shifted that race to lean Democrat last month.

1:15:46 So I don't think Oaf's a surprise.

1:15:48 I mean I still think

1:15:49 what's a better one than Tal what's another similar race to Terico that

1:15:54 I mean it might be Os Osborne.

1:15:56 Yeah.

1:15:56 I mean, if it's Paxton, I think uh if it's Paxton versus Alaska.

1:16:02 Yeah.

1:16:02 Pelola, I think would I I would pick over Terico.

1:16:06 I think Pelah certainly has a better

1:16:08 I'm not I'm not letting you leave before we talk about Michigan.

1:16:11 Oh, yeah.

1:16:12 And that and with with the news that came out today and whether Abdul sayed may

1:16:16 is a physician or is a physician or is not a physician.

1:16:19 I mean, you've got the Apac things going.

1:16:21 I mean, that race and we've got a big debate coming up soon as well.

1:16:24 That one is really juicy.

1:16:26 Yeah.

1:16:26 I mean, and that one's still not until August.

1:16:29 So, we have so many twists and turns left.

1:16:31 I mean, the way this race is being covered,

1:16:33 which I I think is fascinating because if Democrats mess up anywhere,

1:16:38 it might be in Michigan, you know,

1:16:40 if they are able to flip talk about if they're able to flip Iowa or Texas,

1:16:44 but they lose Michigan and that ends up costing them the Senate.

1:16:47 Um, because that primary, I mean, I do think Alsad is the riskiest of the three.

1:16:53 Mallerie McMaro now facing heat because of her sort of anti-man

1:16:57 tweets that she made when she was still living in California.

1:17:00 Haley Stevens not lighting the world on fire with her campaigning.

1:17:04 But I mean, she has a base with the African-American community,

1:17:08 with the auto industry.

1:17:09 So, she's sort of the safe establishment pick.

1:17:12 I mean, to me, Michigan is that primary is, you know,

1:17:17 sort of the microcosm of the fights within the Democratic party.

1:17:20 You have Abdullah Sayed, that's the Bernie candidate.

1:17:23 Maro is sort of somewhere in between.

1:17:25 She's sort of this new vogue progressive.

1:17:27 And then Stevens is the establishment pick.

1:17:30 So it's, you know, she's seen as the Chuck Schumer favorite,

1:17:33 even if he hasn't officially endorsed.

1:17:35 But Debbie Stabinau just endorsed Stevens.

1:17:37 You know, I think um it the fact

1:17:40 that there is oppo starting to trickle out against Elsad.

1:17:44 That's not coming from the Republicans.

1:17:45 That's coming from within the House.

1:17:48 Um, and then also I mean does anybody want

1:17:50 to be uh governor of California at this point?

1:17:53 I mean Javier Bera like if you're on camera assume

1:17:57 that you are on camera and be nice to journalists.

1:18:01 You don't get to set the questions.

1:18:03 We get to ask the questions.

1:18:04 That's how this works.

1:18:05 So yeah.

1:18:07 Yeah.

1:18:07 That that's that's an interesting one.

1:18:09 And then the LA mayor's race has been interesting as well.

1:18:11 There's just so much going on right now.

1:18:13 But we're focused on Nebraska and West Virginia as we just told you.

1:18:16 Um the results are are coming in.

1:18:18 Race is pretty much settled uh in Nebraska for the most part uh

1:18:22 minus that second house district of course which is uh very very important.

1:18:27 Um so we know we're probably going to be done before all the results uh come in.

1:18:31 But of course just stay tuned to DDHQ

1:18:33 the Hill for all uh your latest election results.

1:18:36 Um Scott, I don't know if you're going to hang

1:18:38 with us uh for even longer or if we need to.

1:18:41 Actually, sorry.

1:18:42 Nope.

1:18:42 You got to go sir.

1:18:43 We got to bring in Jeffrey Scott.

1:18:45 Oh, wait.

1:18:46 No, I think we can make this work technologically.

1:18:48 We will ask Scott to stay on and bring in Jeffrey Skellyy.

1:18:51 Um, five bucks.

1:18:52 Look at that.

1:18:53 It's a brave new world, everybody.

1:18:55 Uh, Jeffrey, good to see you.

1:18:57 Um, anything standing out to you or is everything

1:19:00 kind of going the way you expected it to go?

1:19:04 Well, I do think it's interesting that the uh

1:19:06 legalized marijuana now primary um in terms of

1:19:11 if we had results in that one yet.

1:19:14 Yeah.

1:19:13 Yes.

1:19:14 So, uh, looking, uh, give me two seconds.

1:19:16 I will bring it up.

1:19:18 Uh, it is the the candidate who was seen as the, uh,

1:19:24 the the supporter of Dan Osborne.

1:19:27 Again, there it's not actually none of this is clear.

1:19:30 There's a lot of murky.

1:19:31 We talked about this earlier.

1:19:32 Uh but Mike Marvin, who is seen as the pro Osborne

1:19:35 candidate and most likely if he wins the nomination to not

1:19:39 do much as the legalized marijuana now candidate is currently

1:19:42 leading with 280 vi 285 votes to Earl Stark is 138.

1:19:48 So and obviously Burb Cindy Burbank uh won the Democratic primary.

1:19:53 So, if you're Dan Osborne

1:19:55 and that the legalized marijuana now primary stays similar,

1:19:59 which who knows how many votes will even be

1:20:01 in that contest at the end of the day,

1:20:03 um you know, you're probably feeling decent about your chances

1:20:06 of it being essentially a head-to-head race uh against Peter Ricketts.

1:20:10 Cindy Burbank paid Mike Marvin's uh fee fil coincidence.

1:20:15 They just happened.

1:20:16 But it's just a coincidence.

1:20:17 She didn't know him at the filing office at the same time.

1:20:21 You don't believe that?

1:20:22 a lot of coincidences.

1:20:23 And I love the notion that all these candidates are just

1:20:26 like hanging out at the elections office trying to see

1:20:29 if the other part is going to uh run somebody

1:20:31 so then they can run so they could be the spoiler.

1:20:33 They don't let somebody else be the spoiler.

1:20:35 Hey, small town America, man.

1:20:36 Everybody knows everybody.

1:20:38 So, they're going to try and work.

1:20:39 Everybody's just hanging out at the state capital in Lincoln

1:20:41 or the election secretary of state's office in Lincoln.

1:20:44 So, so by I guess by the end of the night and it looks like, you know,

1:20:48 if if Cindy Burbank does what she says she's going to do,

1:20:52 what does what does Osborne have to do?

1:20:55 Does he does he have to go after those disillusioned Republicans out there?

1:21:00 Does he have to track to the left a little

1:21:02 bit to try and grab moderates and liberals and progressives?

1:21:06 Or is it just, hey, I'm the independent guy?

1:21:09 14 points ahead of Kla Harris in Nebraska.

1:21:13 That's a in modern politics, that is a pretty amazing feat, right?

1:21:17 But again, I want to he's got to, like I said, every poll I've seen,

1:21:21 his internal polling, an independent poll that came out this week, he's at 47.

1:21:25 That's exactly what he got last time.

1:21:27 Like, he's got to somehow grow that.

1:21:30 And that means, I think, picking off some Republicans.

1:21:32 He's got to hope for lower Republican turnout.

1:21:35 I was going to say, does Trump's unpopularity help him a little bit?

1:21:38 Maybe get over that 47% ceiling?

1:21:40 Yeah, I mean I think he's got the the the the makeup of the electorate,

1:21:45 I think, is going to have to change dramatically there.

1:21:49 Um, you know, you're going to need he he overperformed,

1:21:52 I think, was it in the was it in the third district.

1:21:55 I I think last time he overperformed a little bit um in in that district there.

1:22:01 Uh but I mean in obviously the blue dot that's

1:22:04 a very probable pickup um with Don Bacon not running there.

1:22:09 So, I think he's got to heavily even outperform whether whether

1:22:14 it's uh whether it's Kavanaaugh or or or another candidate there.

1:22:18 Um so, I don't know.

1:22:20 I I can see how it, you know,

1:22:24 forcing Republicans just to have to spend money here, I think,

1:22:27 would be would be the victory that they've the Democrats

1:22:30 have expanded Democrats and by extension Osborne have expanded the map.

1:22:34 But I still think Democrats have better pickup

1:22:38 opportunities in places like Iowa and places like Alaska

1:22:42 and places like Texas even uh than than

1:22:45 I think than I think they do in Nebraska.

1:22:48 What can you tell us about this Iowa Senate candidate?

1:22:50 Because I've heard some rumblings that he's pretty impressive.

1:22:55 Josh Tourk, he is I mean he has a really compelling personal story.

1:22:59 He was born with spinobipida.

1:23:02 he um due to his father's service in Vietnam from Agent Orange.

1:23:06 So he um so this is sort of how Vote

1:23:08 Vets has spent a lot of money on his behalf,

1:23:10 which his opponent Zach Walls is saying really is

1:23:13 just Chuck Schumer trying to help win the race.

1:23:15 But I mean he won his first state house race by just six votes.

1:23:21 Um he's won in the most Trump friendly district held

1:23:25 by a Democrat versus Walls is from Johnson County, Iowa City there.

1:23:31 very very blue area.

1:23:32 He Walls has never even faced a Republican opponent.

1:23:36 So it comes down I think to a more electability argument.

1:23:40 You know if Walls if excuse me if Turk has been able to win over Trump voters.

1:23:45 In fact you hear him talk and his dad is even a three-time Trump voter.

1:23:49 So you know presumably he's got one voter there if his father's going to vote

1:23:53 for him for Senate which you would think that hope that you would hope.

1:23:57 But you never know.

1:23:58 You never know.

1:23:59 I do think Ashley Henson is a strong candidate though

1:24:02 um for you she's going to have a lot of money.

1:24:05 She's a former newscaster.

1:24:07 Um you know so she's got to be smart.

1:24:11 Well yeah there you go.

1:24:12 Yeah.

1:24:13 Um but I mean she's very polished.

1:24:15 She's not going to say these things like Joanie Erns did.

1:24:18 I don't think I think Journey Joanie Erns was just kind of tired

1:24:21 of Washington and was just kind of out there saying what she thought.

1:24:24 We're all going to die anyway.

1:24:25 Yeah, we all are.

1:24:27 Hey, I grew up in a funeral home.

1:24:28 I know that we are all going to die one day.

1:24:30 So, uh, you know, um,

1:24:32 so I think Iowa's Iowa is my, this is the canary in the coal mine to me.

1:24:37 If they're very competitive in Iowa, I mean,

1:24:40 you have up to three congressional seats that are also very competitive in Iowa.

1:24:44 I think Iowa is possibly the most fascinating state.

1:24:47 Plus, you have uh Rob Sand is

1:24:50 running an incredibly strong race for governor there,

1:24:52 and it's sort of the feeling is that possibly

1:24:54 a rising tide could lift all boats there as well.

1:24:57 Interesting.

1:24:58 Interesting.

1:24:58 Uh, real quick, I I am keeping an eye

1:25:00 on the West Virginia West Virginia Senate race on the Democratic side.

1:25:04 Obviously, Shelley Morapo won the Republican nomination.

1:25:07 We got about 61ish% of the vote in and right now Rachel Fetty Anderson is

1:25:13 your leader uh with about 34% up about

1:25:17 oh 6ish,000 votes uh over the next challenger.

1:25:21 So, watching that race as well as some of the other races u in Nebraska.

1:25:25 Uh still waiting on that any two Democratic uh primary right now.

1:25:29 John Kavanaaugh in the lead there.

1:25:32 Guys, got about five more minutes.

1:25:34 Uh let's go ahead and look forward.

1:25:37 Um Jessica, you were mentioning just how busy this primary calendar gets.

1:25:42 um this race in Louisiana um and Bill

1:25:46 Cassidy uh facing this Trump endorsed challenger

1:25:50 and all kinds just goes back to RFK and vaccines and him just

1:25:54 really uh at his wit's end with some of the changes that RFK Jr.

1:25:58 has made and has landed him on uh Trump's bad side.

1:26:02 Well, I mean it goes back even further than

1:26:04 that with his vote to convict Trump in the first impeachment.

1:26:07 And here's the thing.

1:26:09 I think when I when Cassidy made that political decision,

1:26:13 he had just won reelection and he thought that Louisiana

1:26:17 was going to keep its all party jungle primary system.

1:26:20 Landry changes the primary system.

1:26:22 So now he has to face um face just Republican voters.

1:26:27 Independents can also vote.

1:26:28 So he's hoping that enough independent voters cross

1:26:31 over into this primary to possibly save him.

1:26:34 There was even um there was a Substack article written uh

1:26:38 by a Democrat there actually that I I I've talked to who

1:26:44 Cassidy actually called him and was trying to convince Democrats

1:26:47 to reregister as either independents or Republicans to vote in that primary.

1:26:53 So that shows you just really how desperate Cassidy is.

1:26:56 I mean, again, I would not be shocked on Saturday if Cassidy

1:27:00 is not even finishing in the top two because you have John Fleming,

1:27:02 this the state treasurer, former member of Congress,

1:27:05 former Trump deputy chief of staff um

1:27:08 who has a lot of MAGA conservative support.

1:27:11 In fact, um, one one source said to me that, um,

1:27:15 it was almost like a murder suicide pact that, uh,

1:27:19 Cassidy is hitting Leto so much that it's inadvertently helping

1:27:24 Fleming that if he isn't going to win this race,

1:27:26 then he's going to try to make sure that Lelo doesn't either.

1:27:28 You know, hitting her, she doesn't have

1:27:30 the best score with the American Conservatives Union,

1:27:33 hitting her when she was a college administrator, um, over DEI policies.

1:27:38 So, you know, it really is it's a fascinating race, you know,

1:27:42 and I'm going to be spending my Saturday

1:27:44 night Saturday night following that one uh this Saturday.

1:27:47 But again, I would I would not be shocked

1:27:49 at this point if Cassidy does not even make the runoff.

1:27:51 I I think he's probably still a slight favorite, too.

1:27:54 But I don't know.

1:27:56 I go back and forth.

1:27:57 I think the only true way to cover that race

1:27:59 and give it the the just desserts that it deserves, you got to go to Louisiana.

1:28:03 I think I think you need to convince your bosses.

1:28:06 Maybe not the hotel in New Orleans.

1:28:08 watch the boat come in.

1:28:09 Yeah, I mean that would be that would be real nice and worse places to be.

1:28:13 Yeah, that there are worse places to be than Louisiana.

1:28:15 That is true.

1:28:16 Um, all right guys, we've got just a couple more minutes left.

1:28:18 I want to go around the horn one more time.

1:28:20 Uh, if you can maybe give me either a state or a race

1:28:23 that you were watching as we sort

1:28:25 of move forward through uh the primary calendar.

1:28:28 Drew, we'll start with you uh here in studio.

1:28:30 What What do you have your eye on looking forward?

1:28:33 I mean, I think it's got to be Texas.

1:28:34 I I'm fascinated by the Texas race because this primary has been so interesting.

1:28:40 I mean, you have on one side

1:28:42 a a longtime incumbent who is has many friends inside

1:28:48 the Republican Senate uh who kind of has

1:28:51 the albatross of being establishment hung around his neck.

1:28:55 Meanwhile, on the other side, you have Ken Paxton who has this this check

1:28:59 political and personal baggage baggage galore.

1:29:02 Um, and it seemed like Paxton was going to be able to overcome all

1:29:08 that and there was talk of him possibly

1:29:09 even winning outright in in the initial round.

1:29:13 He corn overperformed and so I'll be

1:29:16 very interested to see what happens on that.

1:29:18 And then Terarico to me is just such an interesting candidate.

1:29:21 We've seen different iterations of this from Democrats

1:29:24 who get their hopes up for Texas.

1:29:26 He's a different one.

1:29:28 We have not seen kind of the preacher Democrat try to run a race in Texas.

1:29:33 Is this the time that finally Democrats can can win

1:29:37 a state that they've had their eyes set on for so long?

1:29:39 So, I think there's so many interesting things

1:29:40 to watch in that Texas uh primary that's coming up.

1:29:44 Jeffrey Jeffrey, 30 seconds.

1:29:45 Uh what are you looking at?

1:29:48 I mean, I think Georgia, given that if you're thinking about next week,

1:29:53 uh what is what is what what state could actually be competitive in the fall?

1:29:57 Uh it's it's Republicans picking their nominee

1:29:59 for Senate and probably going to a runoff there.

1:30:02 Uh and also in go for governor doing

1:30:05 pos probably the same thing going to a runoff

1:30:07 uh and potentially nominating a pretty MAGA heavy candidate

1:30:10 at the end of the day uh for governor.

1:30:12 Uh the two front runners are both both in that camp including Bert Jones,

1:30:16 Lieutenant Governor who's who's got Trump's endorsement.

1:30:18 Uh so maybe that's an opening for Democrats

1:30:20 to to potentially flip a state where if you

1:30:23 could win over some of those Kimp voters who

1:30:25 were willing to vote for Raphael Waro in 2022, uh you might be able to win.

1:30:29 Scott, can you give me 15 seconds?

1:30:31 What you're looking forward to?

1:30:34 Primary night next Tuesday, Massie primary.

1:30:36 We're going to see if the uh the Trump train can go for the general election.

1:30:40 My favorite bell weather.

1:30:41 I'm going to be looking at election night.

1:30:43 Ohio 9 Marcy Captor seat.

1:30:45 Jessica, 15 seconds.

1:30:46 Take us home.

1:30:46 Iowa Iowa Senate race primary there between Josh Tok and Zack Wallace could

1:30:51 have really big consequences for how

1:30:53 competitive this is in the general election.

1:30:55 All right, we will have to leave it there guys.

1:30:56 Thank you so much for joining us tonight.

1:30:58 Really do appreciate it.

1:31:00 For Drew Petrobo, Scott Trancher, Jeff Skellyy,

1:31:02 Jessica Taylor, thank you so much.

1:31:04 I'm Corey Smith.

1:31:05 We'll see you next Tuesday.