Trump ADMITS DEFEAT During WILD PRESS Conference

0:00 Welcome to Pod Save America.

0:01 My guest today is an old friend of mine.

0:03 She actually stole my car literally 25 years ago.

0:06 She gave it back.

0:07 It's fine.

0:08 But she went

0:08 Without gas in it.

0:09 Without gas in it.

0:10 Long story.

0:11 But today Sarah Longwell has left a life of crime

0:14 behind her to become the publisher of The Bulwark.

0:17 You can find her on excellent podcasts like The Next Level, The Focus Group.

0:21 Sarah, it's great to see you.

0:23 Thanks, man.

0:23 It's great to see you.

0:24 You are in my office, just so people know.

0:26 It's very nice.

0:27 It's a very professional, very nice office here in DC.

0:30 And I'm so grateful to be here because

0:31 I want to take stock of this political moment.

0:33 Like 6 months out from the midterms.

0:35 We're all letting ourselves get excited.

0:37 And but you do more focus groups with voters than anyone I know,

0:41 like several a week.

0:43 And I want to ask you about those conversations because we're all sickos who,

0:47 you know, Hoover up the latest polls.

0:49 But I think you can really learn interesting insights by listening to voters.

0:53 What a What a crazy concept.

0:55 like they're the people who comprise this democracy of ours.

0:57 It's almost like they make the decisions.

0:58 And by the way, if listeners are as obsessed

1:00 with this stuff as we are and they want to learn more,

1:03 you should right now pause the podcast and pre-order Sarah's book,

1:07 How to Eat an Elephant One Voter at a Time.

1:10 You'll learn about Sarah's life, her time in politics,

1:13 the insights she's gleaned from literally thousands

1:15 of hours of focus group conversations with voters.

1:18 And also, if you pre-order it now, what that means is when the New York Times

1:22 bestseller list comes out, she will be on it.

1:25 And like Don Jr.'s Triggered 2 or whatever book

1:29 is getting bulk ordered by the RNC will get bounced.

1:32 That's right.

1:33 So I think this is important.

1:34 It is important to me that no super PAC

1:37 is buying this book to get it on the list,

1:40 that it is made up of real people in large part

1:42 because I want people to hear and sometimes people are like,

1:45 "Oh my god, do I have to listen to voters?" And I'm like,

1:48 "Yes." Was [laughter] you doing JBL impression right there?

1:51 I was doing a JBL impression, yeah.

1:53 Sarah and The Bulwark team, they're they're independent pro-democracy media,

1:56 so are we at Crooked Media.

1:58 Check out everything The Bulwark is doing.

1:59 Go to Substack.

2:00 They have amazing podcasts.

2:01 They do written content.

2:03 You should be a subscriber.

2:04 I've been a subscriber for a long time.

2:05 It's so good.

2:06 Nice of you.

2:06 I mean, it's it's great stuff.

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2:30 Okay.

2:30 So Sarah, let's start with what you're hearing about Donald Trump himself.

2:35 On the Focus Group pod,

2:36 you guys recently talked about was like Catholic Trump and Harris voters.

2:40 You talked about It was Trump voters who were angry at him.

2:44 There was an interesting Iran war pod like

2:46 just tons of great episodes people should check out.

2:48 But like what are the big themes

2:49 and problems and concerns that kind of keep arising?

2:52 Yeah, okay.

2:52 So the easy one is So we ask the same question at the beginning of every group.

2:57 How do you think things are going in the country?

2:59 There was only one answer to that question that we are hearing right now.

3:03 Great.

3:03 Two thumbs up.

3:04 It is bad.

3:05 Nobody thinks things are good,

3:07 including some of the people who still support Trump.

3:09 Like they don't think things are going well.

3:11 People who are still riding with Trump just tend to have hope that maybe they

3:15 will start going well at some point because you got to trust the plan, Tommy.

3:19 You trust the plan, we might get there.

3:21 But but the big thing is just costs, right?

3:23 Everybody talks about How do you think things are going in the country?

3:26 People say bad.

3:27 Gas prices are high.

3:29 We're suddenly in a war with Iran.

3:31 You know, I wanted Trump to deport criminals,

3:34 but he's doing all this other stuff.

3:36 And it's this pervasive feeling.

3:38 In fact, we just did a focus group and I really liked this group.

3:40 It was people who are still approvers of Trump.

3:44 People who are still rocking with him, that that 32%.

3:47 I've got my Bush line, right?

3:50 Um But people who are, let's call it, below the Bush line, people who are like,

3:54 "I'm still in it with Trump." Surprised I

3:56 managed to get that by you without you giggling.

3:58 I did smile.

4:00 [laughter] Do you know that I coined that phrase entirely

4:02 innocently and only until I said it to Tim Miller

4:05 reason I'm laughing is because I was texting with Tim about this today

4:07 and I asked him for oppo about you and he responded the Bush line.

4:12 Yeah.

4:13 Well, he They bastardized things that I take

4:16 purely You're so innocent with compared to him.

4:18 [laughter] So, but the people who are still riding with Trump,

4:23 who think things are going great, even they think that the state of the country,

4:28 like the way that we relate to each other, is awful.

4:31 Like they feel like the country is a powder keg.

4:33 They feel like we're too divided.

4:34 They're scared about civil war.

4:36 And so there's this like deep pervading sense or pervasive sense of unease.

4:42 But the prices are the things you hear because when prices are high,

4:46 people's anxiety is high.

4:48 And they've been high kind of now for a long time.

4:50 And so people are starting to crack.

4:52 And I I got to tell you, a year ago,

4:54 what we would hear from these voters is okay.

4:58 Like Trump is going to fix it.

4:59 And like Rome wasn't built in a day, but I think he's going to get there.

5:02 And like every week, you just see the sort of the sliding

5:05 off of the optimism from Trump voters that say, "I think things are going to get

5:10 better." Like they just see things getting worse.

5:12 It drives with that I've heard from others

5:13 like folks probably heard of Swing Left.

5:16 They are a great grassroots organization.

5:18 They're doing this big canvassing project called Ground Truth,

5:21 where they don't do like a walk list.

5:23 It's not like the Democratic Party saying like, "Hey,

5:25 knock on these Democratic doors." They're knocking on every

5:27 door and they're trying to have longer conversations.

5:30 And you know, issues rise and fall, right?

5:32 Like the Iran war happens and all

5:34 of a sudden that spikes in what they're hearing.

5:35 But the number one issue, like lingering pervasive issue,

5:39 is about the integrity of the political system itself.

5:42 It's about trust and that ranges from corruption.

5:45 It's people feeling like politicians lie and they're self-dealing.

5:48 It's that the system is corrupted or captured by corporate interests.

5:53 And it's just, you know,

5:54 it's interesting that they're hearing that you're hearing the same thing.

5:56 Like that is like the mood music.

5:58 Yeah.

5:59 And I think like to the extent that we

6:01 now take our signals are also bifurcated and everywhere,

6:05 but they all come together in this thing that we now call vibes.

6:08 And one of the things I talk about in the book is the rise of the vibes voter.

6:12 And like the vibes are bad and Trump's vibes are bad.

6:16 And the you know, um It's funny that the the way you just said it,

6:22 uh which is around corruption and things.

6:23 A lot of the things about doing the focus

6:25 groups is you get a lot of specifics into that.

6:27 So like what are people angry about?

6:29 Well, they're angry that Trump lied and said

6:31 we weren't going to get into these stupid wars.

6:34 And now we're at war with Iran.

6:36 They're upset about Epstein.

6:37 Epstein comes up a lot.

6:39 I think a lot of people thought like this isn't a real story.

6:41 This isn't actually going to matter.

6:43 But for a lot of the voters, Epstein isn't just about Epstein.

6:47 It's about the idea that Trump was supposed

6:48 to be somebody who was going to be transparent, right?

6:51 And he was going to put people in his cabinet.

6:52 There's a secret cabal running everything,

6:55 but we're going to tell you the truth.

6:56 We are on your side.

6:57 And there's a sense of betrayal around that, which is why I always

7:00 think about who are still part of the people who approve of Trump.

7:04 For them, what they have is like they're keeping

7:07 the faith in Trump that it's going to come,

7:09 but they're clear that it hasn't come yet and we're not getting it right now.

7:13 Interesting.

7:14 So, um we both are in the media world now,

7:17 but like at heart we're political hacks who especially

7:19 focus on messaging and how to go after Trump.

7:22 Um the messaging that resonates with me, my my bias,

7:26 my prior is around corruption because I think

7:28 the corruption bucket gives you the why, right?

7:31 It's like It explains why Trump is pushing

7:33 bad tax policies cuz his donors want them,

7:35 bad foreign policy, crypto, like it can apply to everything.

7:39 And I think Senator Jon Ossoff has been messaging

7:42 this and I think in a really effective, interesting way.

7:44 We'll drop in a clip here.

7:46 How much do you guys know about Jared Kushner?

7:48 Ivanka's husband.

7:50 He's on the Saudi payroll for $2 billion.

7:53 And now he's leading American diplomacy in the Middle East,

7:56 apparently while at the very same time asking princes

7:59 and sheiks across the Arab world to give him billions more.

8:04 Can you imagine like a normal sitting US ambassador just hitting

8:09 up Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for billions of dollars?

8:13 The rules are for us, not for them.

8:17 And it's not just Jared getting in on the action.

8:19 A company owned in part by Eric and Don Jr.

8:22 has been pitching Gulf kingdoms on its drone interceptors during this war.

8:28 Never before have we seen so little effort to hide so much corruption.

8:35 Do you think this is effective messaging what Ossoff is saying?

8:37 Is this kind of thing like popping in groups?

8:39 Yeah.

8:40 It's And here's the thing about corruption.

8:42 Okay, so I'm going to put a different frame on it, which is like I said,

8:46 people are focused on prices, they're focused on affordability.

8:49 But you can make everything an economic issue.

8:51 Corruption, especially, can be an economic issue, right?

8:54 It's about a total story you're telling.

8:56 And it's saying he's getting rich while you're getting poor.

9:00 Everything has to have the contrast to it.

9:03 You know, I don't ever I'm talking to people.

9:05 I'm like him bad, you good.

9:08 Like Like let's get like some real basics, right?

9:11 Trump bad, you good.

9:13 Republicans bad, them good.

9:15 Like yeah.

9:16 That's right.

9:16 He break, we fix.

9:18 Um it's like get the contrast in there.

9:20 I am minorly developing an obsession with Jon

9:23 Ossoff entirely based on tight shirts and good messaging.

9:27 Yeah, which is funny cuz that's not for me exactly,

9:30 but it is it's for Me either, but hard not to see it.

9:33 the comms stuff just has me swooning.

9:36 Yes.

9:37 The demeanor, the the the vibes, the likeability.

9:40 doing like all So there's a couple of things he's doing.

9:42 One is cadence, right?

9:44 He's holding an audience in his hand and that's the stuff you can't teach.

9:48 Some of it is the that the the handsomeness of it all,

9:51 like the optics of feeling like oh oh you look

9:55 you look like a person I could see being president.

9:58 He's got nice young man energy similar

9:59 to to Obama and and some other people Buddha judge

10:04 has some of that nice young man energy which

10:06 I think works with a lot of the moms.

10:09 I think you know, there's always a soccer mom or a you know,

10:12 security mom or whatever let's just have the nice young man moms.

10:15 They could be coming out for Democrats this time.

10:17 But the thing about Ossoff is that he is a natural contrast storyteller.

10:22 He is saying and a lot of people get they worry well look if I if I

10:26 start talking about corruption people are going to get

10:28 bored or they don't understand the ins and outs.

10:31 He trusts people to understand where he's going

10:34 with it and he says have you heard?

10:36 Did you know?

10:37 I'm here to give you this information if

10:39 you haven't been getting it in your bubble.

10:41 It's so simple it's like an old Leno bit.

10:43 Like do you hear about this one?

10:44 You read this one?

10:45 And so I am finding him from a an Optics Cadence

10:49 and message discipline standpoint to be doing the thing that I I've been

10:55 feeling pretty desperate for politicians to do which is find a way

10:58 to rhetorically get your arms around the chaos and people get distracted.

11:02 It feels like it's so much and the voters feel like it's too much

11:05 but he's like no going to focus

11:06 your attention on these things and they they provide

11:10 the contrast not just him versus Trump

11:13 but the way in which he's approaching issues versus

11:17 the corruption of Trump and corruption Trump's getting

11:21 richer you're getting poorer like that's the contrast.

11:25 Maria Bartiromo saying congrats Don and Eric

11:28 on your drone contract from the Pentagon or whatever.

11:31 I don't know if you know this but Hunter Biden had a painting.

11:34 Yeah, right.

11:35 Yeah, had a burisma.

11:37 I want [clears throat] to talk about

11:37 how Democrats should chip away at this Trump

11:40 coalition from 2024 and kind of build their own big motley anti-trump coalition.

11:47 You and your co-hosts on the next level had a spirited debate

11:50 about Tucker Carlson and his turn from Trump and denunciation of Trump.

11:54 Let's listen to Tucker talking about that.

11:56 You and I and everyone else who supported him you wrote speeches for him.

12:00 I campaigned for him.

12:01 We're implicated in this for sure.

12:03 Yes.

12:04 It's not enough to say well I changed my mind or like oh this is bad.

12:08 I'm out.

12:09 It's like in very small ways but in real ways you and me

12:14 and millions of people like us are the reason this is happening right now.

12:18 Yes.

12:19 So I do think it's like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences.

12:24 You know, we'll be tormented by it for a long time.

12:26 I will be.

12:28 And and I want to say I'm sorry

12:29 for misleading people and it was not intentional.

12:33 That's all I'll say.

12:33 You you and JBL um and Tim you know,

12:36 I think you guys had sort of different takes on how

12:38 to respond to Tucker or what you made of Tucker.

12:41 I'll let you talk about that.

12:42 But I think I sort of landed in a middle

12:44 ground listening to you guys like yes, you know,

12:48 Tucker is someone I think we should be skeptical

12:50 of because he's sort of in the media political business.

12:54 It was knowable and there's evidence that he

12:57 did know that Trump was a charlatan.

12:59 But I do think he was sincerely disappointed and angry that Trump went

13:03 full neocon and like invaded Venezuela and now was is at war with Iran.

13:08 A lot of it is undergirded by this anger at the Israeli government

13:12 and Bibi Netanyahu that can veer into anti-Semitism and we have to watch that.

13:16 But I'm curious like how do you think Democrats

13:18 use these comments because it's him, it's Alex Jones,

13:21 it's Candace Owens not like lib fan favorites usually

13:25 but saying things that are potentially helpful to us.

13:27 I mean this I think this ends up being

13:29 like kind of weirdly an academic debate as opposed

13:32 to a practical one cuz as a practical matter use the out of all of it, right?

13:36 Like amplify the fractures in their coalition.

13:41 Like again just with the framework of him good they bad like you

13:46 want them to fall apart and you want to hold your side together.

13:48 Like and I think that though people get wrapped up a little

13:51 bit in whether you have to sort of welcome people into the tent.

13:54 This is a phrase where people decide who's

13:56 in the coalition and who's out of the coalition.

13:59 Is there a gate somewhere?

14:01 Well there's this has been a big big conversation lately, right?

14:04 I mean I know you guys have also talked about Hasan who is

14:06 a more leftist sort of Twitch streamer who said some offensive things about

14:10 Israel or a bunch of other topics and and that's been part

14:12 of this question too and like I don't know how do you think about that?

14:15 How do you how do we define whether there are gates?

14:17 I mean I think look there's sort

14:19 of like is something somebody says bad objectively, right?

14:24 So I think I think Tucker Carlson is a malign actor.

14:27 I think he is a liar.

14:28 I think the reason that he has decided to take

14:31 on Trump on this issue isn't because he's got super sincerely held

14:34 beliefs or maybe he does as part of his worldview

14:37 but also he was specifically brought into the White House multiple times.

14:40 I think tried to talk Trump out of Iran.

14:43 Trump went against him.

14:44 Now Tucker's going against him.

14:46 They're all falling apart but like Tucker is not a good person.

14:51 In in my opinion like I think he has been a malign

14:53 actor on our politics and I think he does overall more damage.

14:57 That doesn't mean that Tucker Carlson doesn't

14:59 have an audience and doesn't play a role in helping to sort of fracture

15:03 that coalition and so sometimes amplifying his disagreements.

15:06 He is a particular kind of messenger for people but that's like a utility.

15:11 It's not hey let's have them in the coalition and because there is no

15:16 Cuz they're not part of they don't want to be part of the coalition.

15:18 But also because there is no gatekeeping around the coalition, right?

15:22 Like there's nobody who decides really I mean the DNC can decide who speaks

15:27 at a at the who gets a platform but like and that was sort of you know,

15:32 my argument with Tim around was I felt like Tim and Tim

15:37 Tim knows this so I don't want to like speak out

15:38 of school cuz he's not [clears throat] here to defend himself

15:40 but I felt like he was kind of downplaying some of the toxicity

15:43 of the things that was saying and more than that I

15:47 just cared about on our platform I didn't want it to sound

15:49 like we didn't have a clear sense of who this guy

15:52 is and what he is saying and what he talks about.

15:55 But like if that guy says I like Jon Ossoff because

15:59 I agree with his views on this well then like okay.

16:02 That's and so I just had this idea

16:04 of people being gatekeepers on this stuff but I

16:06 do think we should all as moral actors be

16:10 gatekeepers about what is right and what is wrong.

16:14 And so for me if my lines are liberal versus illiberal then when people

16:19 are using violent rhetoric if they side with terrorists or want to you know,

16:24 pump up terrorists or celebrate them in ways or the Chinese

16:28 Communist government or Putin's annexation of Crimea you know,

16:33 or that you know, 9/11 happening was a what was it?

16:37 America deserved 9/11.

16:39 And people are like these are out of context and then I

16:42 go and watch the context and I'm like they're not out of context.

16:45 You just you have an explanation for why you think these things to be true.

16:49 Okay, well that's an academic debate or an intellectual

16:51 debate and we can have that debate.

16:52 I'm just telling you I think those things are wrong and I think as a moral

16:55 line I think that they're not good but that doesn't mean but the idea

17:01 that like podcasters can't talk to each

17:03 other or people can't debate ideas like So

17:05 you're not a fan of deplatforming cuz

17:07 that that was very like 2018 through 2020, right?

17:09 It's like all the scolding of people went on Joe

17:11 Rogan or like scolding of Barstool Sports or things.

17:14 But people conflate the idea of saying I think that person's

17:17 ideas are bad or I I object to what that person's saying.

17:20 Like I don't think stealing stuff from stores

17:23 is an act of righteous courage against corporations.

17:26 Like I think that is I think that's basically you decided okay

17:30 well we're just going to opt out of having a society and laws

17:34 and to me those are illiberal things and I'm trying to part

17:37 of the reason I objected to Donald Trump was the illiberalism of Donald Trump,

17:41 the violent rhetoric of Donald Trump.

17:43 Now Hasan Piker's like a streamer who

17:46 most of the American country doesn't know about.

17:47 Well yeah, I mean He's not president.

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20:41 Maybe like a a less discussed, maybe more complicated,

20:44 more interesting case is Marjorie Taylor Greene.

20:46 Yeah, okay.

20:47 Who has voted in some bad ways,

20:51 has said some noxious things, has held some terrible views.

20:54 But I got to say I listened to her I've been listening to her pretty closely

20:58 for the better part of a year talk about her opposition to the war in Iran,

21:04 um some of the things she said about the war in Venezuela,

21:07 things she's been saying about Gaza.

21:09 And it just it strikes me as totally sincere.

21:11 And now maybe it's all a political game that is

21:15 setting up a run for the presidency in 2028.

21:18 Whatever, we'll find out.

21:19 But it was interesting.

21:20 I was talking to Ilhan Omar a couple weeks ago about this um and whether,

21:26 you know, she had reached out to um uh Marjorie Taylor Greene.

21:30 And it was interesting to hear like Ilhan Omar, who's taken more attacks,

21:35 who's been treated more viciously by MTG and a lot of Republicans,

21:39 showed such grace and was like, "Yeah, we should, you know, give her a hug,

21:42 welcome her into the coalition." I thought it was interesting

21:43 to hear that from her, that she was thinking like that.

21:46 Yeah, and I think look, I think grace is good.

21:50 Um I also and I I think um part

21:53 of what's happening though is like they're finding common ground.

21:56 Right?

21:56 Like they share their their feelings about Israel,

21:59 I think are like both sincerely held and uh are maybe closer

22:05 to each other than Marjorie Taylor Greene's are to many in her own party.

22:08 Right.

22:09 Um and uh and that might be true of Ilhan

22:12 Omar and some of the members of her own party.

22:14 And so, if they can they find that common ground and so,

22:17 but like that might not be true if they didn't have like

22:21 a an issue that was binding them

22:23 together that they both care passionately about.

22:25 And that is um I think that uh increased

22:29 skepticism of Israel is totally warranted in this moment.

22:33 Uh I think that increased skepticism of the American

22:36 government is quite warranted uh in this moment.

22:39 Um but like that wouldn't necessarily bind me together with somebody.

22:43 That wouldn't be like the glue that holds us together.

22:46 But I think that we have and have had now for a while

22:51 a fracturing of the old way of politics orienting the parties.

22:58 And so, as these issues shift and there's these huge

23:01 changes in the way people are thinking about different things,

23:03 Israel being one of them,

23:05 you're going to start to see sort of the strange bedfellows.

23:07 Totally.

23:08 But politics is always like that, right?

23:09 Politics finds strange bedfellows.

23:11 And I think that is fine.

23:13 Again, this is where is it really welcoming somebody into a coalition?

23:18 Cuz I think there's a difference.

23:20 And this is when you say I carry you.

23:24 Like we are together in this.

23:26 And this is why the question of do

23:28 politicians go on like these more really incendiary podcasters,

23:32 people who are more sort of shock jock politics.

23:35 So like, okay, you've got two there's two sides of that coin.

23:37 There's the side that's trying to reach audience.

23:39 And so you need to go every do everything everywhere all at once.

23:42 You got to be going, finding audience,

23:44 going into uncomfortable places, having new conversations.

23:47 You also have the judgment to know that for some

23:50 people you will end up owning some of their baggage.

23:52 Um and some of the worst things that they said if you're

23:55 not willing to press them on it or engage in that, right?

23:58 And so um that is the thing with Marjorie Taylor Greene

24:01 is like I think that she got into Congress and thought

24:07 maybe it was going to be easier for her to just

24:09 love Trump enough to get things done and then that didn't happen.

24:12 And now maybe she's mad she didn't have enough influence or whatever.

24:15 She's looking for influence in other ways.

24:18 I just don't know that I think I'm not going to be like,

24:21 "Boy, I really want to run hang out with Marjorie Taylor Greene." But J.D.

24:25 Hill does.

24:25 I'd love to work out with her, maybe do a little CrossFit.

24:27 No, it's it's just an interesting conversation to sort

24:29 of like thinking about how Democrats offer grace,

24:32 whether the amount number of hoops we make you jump through to kind

24:35 of like get to be treated as sincere versus Trump who's like,

24:39 "Oh, you like Trump?

24:39 Oh, you called me Hitler back in the day?

24:41 You're VP now, J.D.

24:42 Vance." You know what I mean?

24:43 Like, "Oh, Bobby Kennedy, you you like Trump now?

24:45 You hate these vaccines?

24:46 it, I hate vaccines, too.

24:47 You're like, come on in." Well, but that's bad, right?

24:49 We think middle coalition We we we we ultimately don't

24:52 think it's good as a objective matter that J.D.

24:57 Vance specifically, who did say Trump was Hitler, then was like, "Please, Mr.

25:01 Trump, let me be all your things, all for you.

25:03 I just love you." I hope you're my Goebbels.

25:05 I will do what you need, yeah.

25:08 [laughter]

25:07 It's a joke.

25:07 Uh but so I guess there's the part of me that is

25:11 again every successful political coalition that has ever existed has involved,

25:19 like especially at really fractious times,

25:22 has involved lots of strange bedfellows, has involved lots of weird coalitions.

25:25 So, I think you want your coalition to be as big as possible.

25:29 And I don't think we can or like we can't like police who everybody talks to.

25:35 Like what you want out of your political leadership

25:38 is you want somebody who's so good up here.

25:40 This is why what I was objecting to is the idea

25:41 that you have to go on someone's podcast to reach their audience.

25:46 My point is a bigger point that's much beyond like a particular person.

25:49 It is if Jon Ossoff is really good, he will make me and Hasan be like,

25:57 "I support that guy." Not because he comes to us to like reach our audience.

26:01 I think we've gotten a little too obsessed with the these micro

26:04 conversations around Joe Rogan of the left or podcasters in general.

26:08 Like actually it's about the candidates.

26:11 It's the candidates.

26:12 Can they show leadership and can we find ways to say,

26:16 "I can support that person." And can they appeal

26:18 to a really large coalition for a variety of reasons?

26:21 And you want it to be because they're

26:23 leaning into the thing like the good things, the things that were like, "Yes,

26:27 I find goodness in this person." And a lot of people tag into them.

26:30 Not, "Hey, I hate the same people you do." Right.

26:33 Yes, for sure.

26:33 You we want unifying messages, especially on our side.

26:36 Um let me just ask you a couple more things about Iran because I

26:39 can imagine like a half dozen ways that this is bad for Trump politically.

26:43 There's uh gas prices are up.

26:46 People are sick of wars in the Middle East generally.

26:48 Uh the price tag of the war itself is huge, right?

26:51 Like 30 billion, 40 billion dollars already has been burned.

26:54 Then there's the fact that Trump lied and he said

26:56 he would not go to war in the Middle East.

26:58 What what are you hearing though from voters

27:01 who are expressing frustration and about the war,

27:03 especially the Trump supporters you guys have

27:05 been talking to who've who've spoken out?

27:08 Yeah, I would say the main thing is um people thought,

27:13 and this was always uh my take on it was Trump could

27:16 get away with it if it was a really short period of time.

27:18 Because if if it was kind of an in and out like the first

27:21 first Iran bombing was first 12-day war.

27:23 It was like It's like voters by the time it's happened

27:26 it's like it's already you're already buying it with the voters.

27:29 And they're back to caring just about costs.

27:32 Uh the longer this goes on, you've got two things.

27:35 You've got the impacts here at home, which is really around gas prices,

27:38 but ultimately is going to be all things getting more expensive,

27:41 which on top of the tariffs.

27:42 And this is the thing about something like the Iran war.

27:45 Voters know what caused it.

27:46 Voters know that tariffs caused the price increases and they know

27:49 that the war in Iran is causing gas and gas price increases, okay?

27:52 And when they know where it came

27:54 from, that's the first like bucket of the problem.

27:58 Then you get to the second bucket of the problem,

28:00 which is you said no more of this stuff.

28:03 Like you want to go in and do a smash and grab job like Venezuela or whatever,

28:07 and like I don't have to feel it, fine.

28:09 You end up in a prolonged thing where now I'm listening to you be like,

28:12 "Hey, Vietnam was 18 years.

28:14 What are you guys complaining about?" Crazy comment, by the way.

28:16 Uh yeah, like and then they're like,

28:18 "Wait a minute." Because and then this is where Trump is boxed in on this.

28:22 And this is going back to Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson.

28:26 The thing about them is that they are creating there's there's

28:29 sort of there's a fracture in the Republican Party right now.

28:32 There's the America First wing, right?

28:35 Which is no, we're not going to do wars

28:36 cuz we're going to focus on people here at home.

28:39 Then there's the MAGA establishment.

28:41 Uh and that is the Rubio and that is Trump.

28:44 And uh and so America Firsters are like

28:49 "You are not helping um the American people.

28:51 You are lying.

28:52 You're not doing what you said." And there was a real

28:54 part of his coalition that feels betrayed because Trump and again,

28:57 this is when I say everything's an economic issue,

29:00 it's like we hired you to do one thing, man.

29:02 Yeah.

29:02 Maybe two.

29:03 Maybe we wanted you to also secure the border.

29:05 But like it was about prices and you're not doing it.

29:08 And so literally everything you're doing that is not that makes us mad.

29:12 Yeah.

29:12 You hear this from Nick Fuentes You hear this from very vocal people.

29:14 Nick Fuentes, uh Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, a lot of people.

29:19 Again, a lot of flawed messengers there, but they're uh they have audience.

29:23 You mentioned Epstein a minute ago.

29:26 So, the Epstein files saga, it was long,

29:28 but it feels like a lifetime ago at this point.

29:31 But you're how much does the mishandling of Epstein kind

29:35 of linger with voters who are angry with him and and how?

29:38 How does it manifest?

29:39 Yeah, so the main thing again is it goes to um a lot

29:43 of Trump's voters believed that the essential promise of Trump of Trump.

29:47 So, I think there's the people who These are the more

29:50 casual voters who are just like Trump's a business guy,

29:52 he's going to lower prices.

29:53 But then there's the voters who are like no, Trump is going to smash the system.

29:57 And all of the things you guys have been hiding from us, the deep state.

30:01 Talk a lot about this in the book, the grammar of hidden knowledge,

30:04 the idea that there are big structural forces keeping information

30:07 from regular people and and meant to keep people down.

30:11 Trump was going to disrupt all that.

30:13 Right.

30:13 When you don't get the Epstein files.

30:15 And for whatever reason it's funny, if you go back,

30:17 Cash Patel promised the Epstein files, Bondi promised the Epstein files.

30:21 Trump didn't really

30:22 Trump barely He's like, "Yeah, we'll look at that." He's like

30:24 JD Vance promised the Epstein files.

30:26 This was not for Trump wanted to do.

30:29 not.

30:28 And Trump is mad now that he is at the center of that he is at the center of it.

30:32 But they feel like it disrupts the central promise of his, which is that I

30:35 was going to be your guy who was

30:36 going to show you everything and be transparent.

30:38 And so they just and they basically have started to be like, probably yeah,

30:42 he's in them, you know, and it like we know he's in them now.

30:45 And so I do think there's the people who have either decided

30:48 that matters to them because it is disrupted so much of this is cumulative.

30:52 It's not just the Epstein files.

30:54 It's like, well, I didn't get the Epstein files

30:56 and I don't get lower prices and people are basically like,

31:00 I guess I get a secure border and like bad stuff's happening to trans people.

31:04 Like that's the only thing he's mean to my enemies.

31:06 He's mean to my enemies.

31:06 Like that is the only thing that they feel like is

31:09 going right for Trump and the rest of it they're not

31:12 getting and people will are like they'll generally those kind

31:15 of reach for the trans stuff is something that they're glad about.

31:19 But like that's not driving their votes.

31:21 That's not the essential thing pushing most people.

31:23 Not that yeah.

31:24 And the other interesting thing about Epstein that I

31:25 was I think you guys talked about this on one

31:27 of your focus group episodes was um being into conspiracy theories

31:32 used to be a thing that maybe people were embarrassed about.

31:36 Now they're like, oh, I'm a big conspiracy theory person.

31:38 It's like they're proud.

31:40 And I don't know, maybe they all just feel vindicated by the Epstein thing

31:42 cuz like QAnon was just kind of aiming at the wrong target in hindsight.

31:47 But it's it's interesting.

31:48 What did one guy say?

31:49 He was like, "How does an How does a a conspiracy

31:53 theory go like turn into a fact?" And it's like,

31:55 "Just give it time." But what is amazing is it is You

31:59 used to hear people start their sentences with, "I'm not a conspiracy theorist,

32:03 but" and you were always kind of like, "Okay, well,

32:06 I'm I'm waiting to hear the conspiracy." But now they're like,

32:09 "I'm a big conspiracy theorist and let me

32:11 tell you what I think about Erica Kirks,

32:13 like the bodies buried in her basement." Right.

32:15 You know, I mean, the Candace Owens of it all,

32:18 the extent to which the conspiracy I mean,

32:20 used to be like you'd go to the grocery store and there'd

32:23 be like "Bat Boy kills seven" or whatever stuff we used to see.

32:27 And America's always had a strain of you know,

32:29 there's a second gunman on the grassy knoll and whatever.

32:32 America They like it.

32:33 It's fun.

32:34 Now and and the way that people own it now shows you how

32:39 much people are leaning into this as a way of politics as entertainment,

32:45 um the characters that they watch.

32:46 And this is something that the right does

32:48 in some ways to its benefit and to its detriment,

32:51 which is that they are creating an ecosystem of like MAGA soap opera stars Yes.

32:56 Will Sommer.

32:57 Oh, I know.

32:58 Thank god for Will cuz I wouldn't know what the hell was going on.

33:00 Like who's mad at who and who did what in the ballroom at TPUSA event anyway.

33:05 Yeah, there's a lot of like minor celebrities that I mean,

33:07 Will Sommer's constantly saying like, "Well, so-and-so." And I'm like,

33:10 "I'm sorry, who is that?" He's like, "You know,

33:12 the girl who threw up in the plant at the Mar-a-Lago." And I'm like,

33:16 "I don't know this story." Um And so

33:19 the conspiracy stuff uh is and and and again,

33:23 you hear it with people saying, "Well, I trust the plan." You know,

33:26 I whatever Trump's doing, I trust the plan.

33:28 I mean, it's sort of like it's it's all the way

33:30 from deep QAnon stuff that can be pernicious and kind of dangerous

33:34 and lead somebody to show up at a pizza shop with a gun

33:37 all the way over to Bravo doesn't have a new series now.

33:41 So I'm like really into what's happening with Erica Kirks.

33:44 And you think I mean like I I having worked in government,

33:47 I've just found that like big government conspiracies are unlikely

33:51 because when you have a bunch of people read into something,

33:55 the odds of it remaining a secret are very low

33:57 and the government is tends to be incompetent at scale.

34:00 say like you think the government can't figure

34:03 out how to solve a bunch of these problems,

34:04 but you think they know how to cover up like Yeah, exactly.

34:07 [laughter] They fake that stuff?

34:09 But you can totally see the appeal of it,

34:10 which is like simple answers to why the world can feel

34:16 chaotic and scary and why bad things happen to good people, right?

34:19 Like Oh, it's cuz of that.

34:21 And this is why, you know,

34:22 um I tend to still be despite all of the the chaos we see,

34:28 really like really pro-American voter um because

34:32 in some ways they are being poisoned

34:35 every day um and they're being lied to by their government every single day.

34:40 Um I think that whether it's Epstein,

34:43 whether it's the way that Trump has talked about Warren

34:45 or on like we are both being lied to and the only

34:47 way we're getting information is on his like janky social media

34:50 feed and like that's how things are coming is privately owned.

34:53 Like I I have a hard time blaming

34:56 the American people who for a long time were like, "But but he's the president.

34:59 He certainly wouldn't lie about all of this stuff or and I

35:02 I just um and they're trying to parse this new information landscape

35:07 It's effective.

35:08 Yeah.

35:09 um and and there's conflict merchants everywhere telling them who to hate

35:13 and how to hate and ju- you know, ginning people up.

35:16 And so I just I feel like um I feel

35:19 like people when I That's why I like the focus groups.

35:22 They're actually much nicer in person than actually the way and when people

35:25 fight with you on the internet and they're just like screaming things at you.

35:29 Um you know, people in the groups they're really wrestling with stuff.

35:32 They're just coming away with some wild conclusions.

35:36 Um but you can see how they get there if you

35:37 listen to them based on the world that we live in.

35:40 Totally.

35:40 And the algorithms that they're getting forced into.

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38:30 A couple quick issue things I'm just wondering if you're hearing about.

38:32 Um I'm Look, I'm skeptical that a midterms

38:35 going to be won on like policy per se,

38:37 but there are some policy areas that are popping.

38:39 First of all, there's AI.

38:41 So there's some districts Politico had a good write-up

38:43 on this the other day where um fights over AI data

38:47 centers are really um they're big deals in certain communities

38:52 that don't want them there or do want them there.

38:54 Um and then there's also just sort of like

38:55 anger from the left and the right at big tech, at the tech oligarchs.

38:59 And it's like you it's the kind of thing where you could listen I could read

39:03 you a sentence and it could be Bernie

39:04 Sanders or it could be Steve Bannon, right?

39:06 And it's like verbatim the same language.

39:08 How much are you hearing about AI, big tech like in your groups?

39:13 So tons of AI, not nearly enough about big tech.

39:16 And let me So the I was actually um when I

39:20 was doing the focus groups specifically on the races for Mikie Sherrill,

39:24 Abigail Spanberger, in both those races uh

39:28 the AI data centers were a huge issue.

39:30 Came up all the time because people know how much water they're using.

39:34 They know it that they're raising their energy prices.

39:36 Again, it's an economic issue for them.

39:38 They're like they're like, "Hey, it's getting more expensive for me." And both

39:41 of them made them parts of their campaigns

39:43 like they were addressing it cuz clearly

39:45 something they're hearing from voters all the time.

39:48 And this is but on the other thing on the tech oligarchs and this is I

39:51 also talk about this in the book and I need you to do me a favor.

39:55 I'm in.

39:56 Okay, go tell all your Democratic friends that they keep doing

40:00 this thing where they're like big corporations they're the bad guys.

40:04 I'm like can you guys just like like okay,

40:06 I'm not here to talk you out of this don't say.

40:08 Could you please just really focus on the big

40:10 tech oligarchs sure because they are both uh

40:14 becoming outrageously wealthy at the expense of the health

40:19 both mental and physical of the American people.

40:21 They are taking two of our dominant human emotions

40:24 fear and anger and they are algorithmically for their own

40:28 profit and to keep us on those things

40:29 they are making us want to hate each other.

40:32 They are the poisoners in many cases

40:35 or they're the the platforms that deliver the poison

40:38 and try and keep you there and like Elon Musk should be an enemy that we name.

40:43 Yeah.

40:43 Peter Thiel should be an enemy that we name

40:46 and you know what it's not just that these these guys

40:48 walked in to help Trump because they knew he

40:51 doesn't care about people doesn't care about their health

40:54 and well-being and he was going to help them

40:56 be profitable he's going to let them raid our data

40:58 like these we are not talking enough about

41:01 the tech oligarchs as a specific element of the problem.

41:05 You just say big nameless faceless corporation fine you know

41:07 what most Americans work for corporations so the tech oligarchs though

41:12 they are bleeding us and and and and look I

41:16 think there's lots of promise for AI too and there's lots

41:18 of downsides I'm not just like reflexively against it

41:22 but we do need to sort of balance our humanity here

41:26 and I think that um these guys are not they they

41:30 there's a reason Elon Musk talks about immigration all the time.

41:33 He wants to make sure that we think immigrants are the problem

41:37 and not the tech oligarchs like they are playing a distraction game.

41:41 And I do think people need to so if you could

41:42 just tell your friends who are talking about I'll tell them.

41:45 the big thing Hey, listen up.

41:47 Well would you include Mark Zuckerberg what about Google Tim Cook over at Apple?

41:51 I mean I look I fundamentally agree with you.

41:55 I think that the more specificity in messaging

41:58 the better for a whole host of reasons

42:00 but in part just it's easier to like visualize the enemy when you name it.

42:03 Um I'm with you though my frustration with the AI industry generally is like we

42:10 watched all these tech barons create social media

42:14 and tell us it was going to bring the world together and fix all our problems

42:17 and it created a massive number of problems

42:19 and then you have a bunch of the same people kind of running it back

42:22 and now doing the AI thing and it's it goes from Elon to Mark Zuckerberg over

42:26 at Facebook and then Sam Altman who is you know running Y Combinator for a long

42:32 time and incubating a lot of these companies and it just seems like there's no

42:35 lessons learned in fact they they care

42:37 even less about being perceived as good guys.

42:40 They're just like rapacious capitalists who want it all.

42:43 Okay and so as somebody who doesn't necessarily discount

42:46 people just cuz of rapacious capitalism I would say [laughter] [snorts]

42:50 you know my favorite description of the board cuz

42:52 people are like you're the capitalist wing of Antifa.

42:55 [laughter] Take it.

42:56 So good.

42:59 Um but I I think that for me a lot

43:01 of it is and that's why look there are I believe

43:04 in innovation and I believe in trying to solve big intractable

43:08 problems and I think technology can be a big part of that.

43:12 What you do want is for it to not live in a place of nihilism.

43:16 Like you want these guys are becoming

43:17 extraordinarily powerful extraordinarily powerful in our politics

43:22 in ways I mean this is why I think the specificity of an Elon

43:25 Musk like Elon Musk is somebody who I think you can look at and say

43:29 this person is doing an enormous amount of damage and doing it on purpose.

43:33 I don't think every tech oligarch is like that and I

43:36 think that you you know we should probably be

43:38 careful about not sort of lumping in everybody together because

43:41 I think there are people who are like actually there are

43:44 responsible ways to do this and like what are the ways

43:46 that you could regulate this and but those people are

43:49 becoming fewer and further between and one of the reasons

43:52 that so many people capitulated

43:54 to Trump including Zuckerberg including Washington

43:57 Post uh Bezos Elon whatever is cuz they were like

44:02 oh this guy will just do what we want and I'm

44:04 not here for the social good I'm here to get

44:07 what I want and look again doesn't all have to be

44:10 social good but it does have to be with like

44:12 I don't know some sense of responsibility to uh the health

44:16 of the country and Elon is happy happy to be

44:20 a comma trillionaire at the expense of us destroying each other.

44:24 Absolutely destroying anything in his way.

44:26 Um Maha uh the RFK Jr.

44:30 obviously he like exploded into the consciousness

44:34 into popularity by demagoguing vaccines primarily

44:37 the COVID pandemic supercharged everything that he

44:39 was doing but there was a part of Maha that is totally reasonable right

44:44 it's like healthier foods less processed foods

44:47 fewer chemicals in what we're eating you know like thinking more about like what

44:52 we're feeding kids like all of that is eminently reasonable and I have tons

44:56 of friends I'm sure you do too who are like Maha curious and we're

45:00 like well what's what why are you critical of this RFK guy like

45:03 what is what's wrong with any

45:04 of this right it becomes a complicated conversation.

45:06 Um but it was always obvious that as a political

45:09 matter and as a political coalition there was going

45:12 to be tension between sincere Maha and Trump's pro-corporation deregulation

45:19 agenda getting rid of the EPA things like that and you

45:23 saw this explode recently where they gave this sweetheart

45:27 legal deal to the folks who make Roundup which is

45:29 this big weed killer that a lot of Maha

45:31 folks absolutely hate cuz they think it's linked to cancer.

45:34 Um what are you hearing anything about Maha these days like is there anger?

45:39 Um or opportunity for Democrats?

45:41 I mean I heard a lot about Maha going into the election.

45:45 I mean the number of it's not just women but it was a lot of women who were

45:49 like I want red dyes out of food like

45:52 they had these Very specific yeah red dyes always one.

45:55 Um that I was like and I'm a parent but I I was like I don't

45:59 even like I've been following this for but look

46:02 there are a bunch of things I don't

46:04 know if you feel this way there are a bunch of things as you become a parent

46:07 that are happening with kids where you're like

46:09 I don't know it wasn't like this before.

46:10 Nobody had all these nut allergies or like there wasn't you didn't know

46:15 tons of kids who are autistic or like there's like all these things feel new.

46:19 Things that feel new right and so you're like where is this coming from?

46:22 Why is this happening?

46:23 And I think for for parents who of autistic children who feel like they

46:27 don't know exactly why there's a lot of people who are like okay well maybe

46:32 he's going to get to the bottom of some of this and actually I

46:34 think it's I'm not sure if I think it's less about what you're selling it's

46:38 a little bit more like he's basically a crank uh who is now um

46:45 you know is like well we've we're

46:47 getting rid of vaccines everywhere and we're cutting

46:50 all this medical research and I what I hear about Maha when I do hear

46:56 about it is like oh I was excited for RFK but like they haven't really

47:00 gotten anywhere on like X Y or Z whenever the bespoke issue was that they

47:04 were interested in doing it and in fact there was a spate of time

47:08 when they came out um there was a lot of people who were upset

47:12 about the idea of like it was

47:15 Tylenol causing autism in part because mothers felt

47:20 like they were being blamed like the idea that they took Tylenol Cuz it's

47:23 the only thing you can take when you're pregnant for pain relief and to suddenly

47:26 take that away from women and then say and by the way you're at fault

47:31 if your children has a medical problem because you took that that is so cruel.

47:35 And if you don't think that those women

47:37 haven't figured out how to read 11 peer-reviewed studies

47:39 on these things like they have and so I think

47:42 that there was there was some real frustration about that.

47:45 Now it doesn't come up as much I think in part because I actually think

47:49 that the amount of damage being done especially on the did you I don't know

47:53 if you saw this the other day but they have found an mRNA vaccine that is

47:58 showing tremendous signs of adding longevity

48:02 to to the lives of people with pancreatic cancer.

48:04 Extraordinary development yeah.

48:05 Extraordinary medical breakthrough.

48:07 You think we've been spending more money on mRNA vaccines these days or not?

48:12 And so like and I think what's unfortunate is that unlike Trump's tariffs

48:17 and unlike the war in Iran Americans feel acute pain from those things.

48:23 The cutting of scientific research the gutting

48:25 of those things it's kind of thing

48:26 that takes a decade to show up and it's also when discoveries not made

48:30 and therefore much harder to figure out and so I you don't hear as much

48:35 of that as directly although it's there but it's much more focused on prices.

48:41 But I I just know that we are paying we're paying a lot

48:46 and it's just we're going to we're going to learn about it down the road.

48:48 Yeah bill's coming due later.

48:49 I have a couple more things and I'll get the hell out of your office.

48:52 So we've been talking about the midterms.

48:55 Gallup just released some new polling this week about approval of Congress.

48:59 They said they asked people like do

49:00 you approve or disapprove of Congress the institution?

49:03 10% approve 86% disapprove.

49:06 Congrats guys you did it.

49:07 it.

49:07 The all-time [laughter] low is 9%.

49:09 The partisan breakdown was 20% approval from Republicans 11% from Independents

49:15 3% from Democrats which is not surprising it's a Republican Congress.

49:18 Now for context Congress's approval rating has

49:20 been mostly underwater since 1974 the average

49:24 is 28% approve 65% disapprove which is bad but you know 10% is terrible.

49:31 Does that help Democrats that people like

49:34 hate the institution and have more challenges.

49:37 How do you think about that?

49:40 Uh Yeah, Congress is funny because it's weird to get

49:43 to such a low approval rating when you're not doing anything.

49:46 Literally nothing.

49:47 Like And so, I'm actually I'm like, well,

49:49 people are mad that they're not doing anything.

49:51 And especially on the Democratic side, here's what I do know.

49:53 I know that Democratic voters are so frustrated with their leadership.

49:58 I mean, they are mad.

49:59 They're like, "Down with the gerontocracy." And if Hakeem Jeffries more.

50:03 and Schumer don't start going toe-to-toe with Trump,

50:05 and they are not satisfied by the answer

50:07 of, "We're shut out from political power." They're like,

50:10 "I don't know, you're up there.

50:11 Can you go do something?" Like they want to see

50:13 reflected back to them this I I keep uh

50:16 kind of rejecting this fight that we have on Twitter

50:19 about does the Democratic Party need to be more moderate?

50:22 Does it need to be more progressive?

50:23 Like all the voters really want is for it to be more aggressive.

50:27 They could sort of take or leave which side

50:29 of the ideological spectrum you're on as long as you

50:31 are going in there and reflecting the anger

50:34 and upsetness that they feel at what Trump is doing.

50:36 And when you're not doing that, they are mad,

50:38 which is I think where you're getting sort of those Democratic numbers.

50:42 Um and I think Look,

50:44 so much of this is just I you gave me a body of the government,

50:49 and I think things are going terribly in the country,

50:52 and so I want to tell you that I think

50:54 they're doing a terrible job because the country feels bad.

50:57 So, I don't know that I And And Tristan,

50:58 in terms of how it affects the midterms, people blame the party in power.

51:02 I mean, this is The only reason that I think Democrats can't pick up the kind

51:06 of seats that they picked up in 2018 is cuz there's not enough seats available.

51:11 Like there's just because it's so close right now, they can't pick up 40 seats.

51:15 But like they can certainly take control.

51:17 40 seats, we'd have to be winning like Trump plus 12 districts.

51:21 Yeah.

51:22 And I think like Look,

51:23 you can get a wave where you are picking up Trump plus seven districts,

51:27 Trump plus eight districts.

51:27 I mean, that wave would have to be so big.

51:29 But you know what?

51:31 I'm not discounting it in part because Look,

51:36 uh Democrats are extraordinarily motivated, and Republicans are sucking wind.

51:41 Yes.

51:42 And that's where like the Tucker stuff

51:43 I think helps like depressing that MAGA base.

51:46 Like I love that.

51:46 Well, one one one counterpoint to this, The New

51:48 York Times reported uh that Republicans have a $600 million advantage in terms

51:53 of fundraising of like Republican groups over Democratic ones.

51:56 How much does that worry you?

51:57 Cuz I think it's easy after 2024 to be like,

51:59 "We pissed away a billion dollars, didn't move the vote a goddamn point.

52:02 Who cares anymore?" But in midterms, bit of a different story often.

52:06 So, okay.

52:09 It doesn't worry me that much uh in the sense

52:12 that the voters are given to the candidates.

52:15 The like you the Democratic candidates like

52:17 Tal Riego and Cooper and uh Mary Peltola, like they're putting up huge numbers,

52:23 like way over their Republican counterparts.

52:26 And so, there's an asymmetry that is on either side

52:29 where Democ- the actual Democratic

52:31 candidates are outraising their Republican counterparts,

52:34 whereas the Republican infrastructure and the committees

52:37 are outraising their Democratic counterparts.

52:40 PACs.

52:40 And so, and the PACs, right?

52:41 So, there's like tons of the big money coming in, whereas I think

52:45 a lot of the big money on the left is Yeah, feeling scared.

52:50 [laughter] And And scared.

52:50 People don't want to put their names

52:52 on FEC reports cuz Trump will go after them.

52:54 Like that is a real thing um that is happening, which And that's why Look,

52:59 I don't know how much money's going into C4s or stuff,

53:01 but like that money might be evening out somewhere,

53:03 but uh there is a lot of chilling of civic participation via

53:10 donation dollars because people are afraid

53:11 of showing up on Donald Trump's radar.

53:13 Yeah.

53:14 And the DOJ me from that It worries me from that point of view.

53:18 And then it worries me I think from um I don't want to just like,

53:21 you know, crap on Ken Martin,

53:23 but I do think that the DNC could stand to um up its up its game a little bit.

53:30 Yeah.

53:30 Um I I actually we've been in touch with Ken's team.

53:32 We're hoping to get him on the show sometime next week to talk about

53:35 this and the fundraising and some of the concerns

53:36 cuz it is um it's a challenging atmosphere.

53:40 I'm sure it is an absolute slog for him to try

53:42 to rebuild that place and clear the decks after 2024.

53:46 Um but yeah, I'm I'm anxious like you are.

53:48 And also, but you're right,

53:49 the the candidate fundraising is better on the Democratic side,

53:52 and that's also important cuz you get more efficient ad rates

53:55 as a elected official than you do as a party committee or a PAC.

53:59 So, that's something.

54:00 Yeah.

54:00 And for people who are like, "Oh,

54:01 get money out of politics and stuff." I I totally I hear I hear you.

54:05 But But But as right now, right,

54:07 when you have only so many metrics for things like money,

54:10 especially to candidates, is a good metric for enthusiasm.

54:13 And so, the idea that these Democratic candidates are outperforming

54:16 on the money side is just a good metric for I think enthusiasm,

54:20 especially in a midterm and not a presidential.

54:22 Yes, totally agree.

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55:23 Last question.

55:23 Let's just end with some um maybe irresponsible,

55:26 definitely premature speculation about 2028.

55:29 Yeah.

55:29 Yeah.

55:29 Uh on the Republican side, you have a great piece in The Atlantic

55:32 this week about how groups are ta- focus groups,

55:35 Trump voters are talking more and more about Marco Rubio, the archivist.

55:39 Uh I think that's his only job.

55:41 Um [laughter] and less about J.D.

55:42 Vance.

55:43 Yeah.

55:43 Tell us more about that.

55:45 So, uh this is Marco Rubio is maybe the first candidate

55:49 I've seen where like a meme seems to be springing to life.

55:53 Yes.

55:53 And so, the meme of Marco Rubio in the chair like this with the new job,

55:57 whatever the job is.

55:57 Like is he the new coach of the Panthers?

55:59 Is he the new Like every every garbage job that you can get,

56:03 it actually It is It is a funny joke,

56:06 but what it is showing people or I think what people are taking away

56:09 from that is like there is one person

56:11 in this administration who's not a total clown.

56:14 Right.

56:14 Like And so, you got to give him all

56:15 the jobs cuz he's the only actual serious person.

56:18 And then that's one piece of it.

56:19 And then another piece is They're kind of looking around, and it's like, "J.D.

56:23 Vance, who people still will say is the heir apparent." And like "Okay,

56:30 yeah, yeah, I like J.D.

56:31 on the MAGA side.

56:32 Like I don't really feel it." He's He is for me in focus groups now,

56:35 having done this long enough to see different candidates rise and fall,

56:39 he's got total Ron DeSantis vibes from Republican voters.

56:43 Where to God's ears.

56:44 the longer they look at him,

56:45 the more they're like, Uh [laughter] And And And so,

56:49 like they want to like him or they want to do it,

56:51 but like he's not lighting anybody up, and he's getting himself in a sour spot

56:54 with those two groups I'm talking about that he

56:57 thought he was going to be able to stand

56:58 over both of them and bring them together,

57:00 and instead he's sitting in the bad spot

57:02 where Tucker's got this part marshaled over here,

57:04 and and Rubio's starting to marshal the MAGA establishment over here.

57:09 Um And so, that is just interesting to me.

57:11 It also doesn't help that Donald Trump walks around his, you know,

57:14 the White House being like, "Who do you like better, J.D.

57:16 or Marco?" You know.

57:18 Crazy.

57:18 Go every donor at Mar-A-Lago is getting

57:20 asked who he likes better, Rubio or Vance.

57:21 Also like look, Rubio I think gets a lot of credit

57:24 from the base on Venezuela operation cuz he's seen as owning that one.

57:28 Yeah.

57:28 Uh when it comes to Iran,

57:31 uh they started a war, and Marco Rubio has disappeared.

57:34 He went to the He went to the UFC fight.

57:36 Yeah.

57:36 Yeah.

57:37 While J.D.

57:37 Vance went over to Pakistan.

57:39 J.D.

57:39 Vance like sits on the tarmac for 21 hours in Pakistan,

57:42 gets humiliated, flies home.

57:44 J.D.

57:44 And Marco goes to um goes to a uh a UFC fight.

57:48 But also, Marco Rubio like did one press conference where he

57:50 went up on Capitol Hill and he was like, "Oh yeah,

57:52 we invaded cuz the Israel uh the lobby made us do it."

57:55 And then he walked away and created this huge disaster for everyone involved,

57:59 and then has not said a word since.

58:00 He's just divorced himself from this problem.

58:02 Probably smart politically.

58:03 Probably smart politically.

58:04 I I think And this is um So, look,

58:06 I don't I I think that those two are an interesting contrast to me.

58:09 And I just I think for me, one of the reasons I'm so interested

58:12 in hearing the strange new respect from Trump voters

58:15 in the focus groups is I think I

58:16 had long thought that people from the pre-Trump era,

58:20 Republicans from the pre-Trump era, were a non-starter for voters.

58:24 But what's interesting is that especially for younger voters,

58:29 they don't even know Marco Rubio.

58:30 The Marco Rubio that I was like, "Oh, this young man, I like him.

58:34 We'll see what he does." Guys like the water.

58:35 Yeah, that's right.

58:36 But you know, he was like he was going to be the new person.

58:39 He led uh on on immigration reform, whatever.

58:42 Time magazine, right?

58:43 He was like the future.

58:44 Nobody thinks that.

58:45 Like these guys don't know that guy.

58:46 They just know the guy who's been in the tank for Trump.

58:49 And so, they're sort of meeting him for the first time,

58:51 people who are like 30 and below.

58:53 And then for a lot of the other people,

58:54 there's he's been enough of a lapdog for Trump and transformed himself enough

58:59 that like I obviously uh would never vote for him in a million years ever.

59:04 Uh but a lot of Trump voters might.

59:07 Like they wouldn't Nikki Haley, but he's transformed himself enough.

59:09 That So, that that was interesting to me.

59:11 Sucks.

59:11 I will just say on the Republican side,

59:14 I think this is another reason I don't give Tucker sort of the genuine

59:18 uh thing is like I do think Tru- Tucker's thinking about running for president.

59:21 I think Look, I was talking to someone yesterday who sort of been in that world.

59:24 I asked this question, he thought, "No, because it's like a lot of work.

59:27 And also, you have to have a genuine

59:29 thick skin." And Tucker doesn't seem like he's Yeah.

59:32 someone who's very pugilistic, but I look I I yeah,

59:35 I've long wondered if he if he could jump

59:37 into a primary and do very well on the Republican side.

59:40 He would immediately have a base of support.

59:43 Yep.

59:43 Yeah, it would be interesting.

59:44 Last question, um on the Democratic side, is anyone making your heart flutter?

59:49 Yeah, so I already mentioned Ossoff and his communication style.

59:51 Like I I tend to be um I I I I I'm from Pennsylvania.

59:57 People get mad.

59:58 They're like, "No one will ever nominate Josh

59:59 Shapiro." But like if you follow Pennsylvania politics closely,

1:00:03 he is beloved in Pennsylvania.

1:00:06 Um there's just not that many Democrats who have,

1:00:08 you know, a 60% approval rating.

1:00:10 He's going to beat his Democratic challenger.

1:00:12 People are like, I'm sorry, his uh his Republican challenger.

1:00:16 Everybody's like, "I'm sorry, yeah, who's he even running against?" even know.

1:00:19 Uh it's a woman.

1:00:20 I'm forgetting her name right now, but like it's a non-starter.

1:00:22 It's not going anywhere.

1:00:23 No, he's going to destroy her.

1:00:24 Again, cuz he crushed Mastriano, too.

1:00:26 That's right.

1:00:26 Um and she's a Well, there's also part of the reason is there's like

1:00:30 a Now there's like a weird Mastriano write-in Oh, really?

1:00:33 that people are doing.

1:00:34 Yeah, it doesn't matter.

1:00:35 Anyway, but Pete, Jon Ossoff,

1:00:38 um Shapiro because he's successful in the biggest swing state,

1:00:41 like all three of them are kind of in my uh zone for people.

1:00:46 But like here's the main reason.

1:00:48 And And actually I'm not going to put Josh Shapiro in this.

1:00:50 He's kind of like a personal I I like him,

1:00:53 um but I recognize that the Democratic base

1:00:55 seems to have some particular feelings about him.

1:00:58 Uh Well, it's a matter of how well how salient Gaza is, probably, right?

1:01:02 I mean, that's what you're getting at.

1:01:03 Well, one of my pet theory Yes, well,

1:01:04 that is what what people don't like about him.

1:01:06 Stacey Garrity, by the way.

1:01:08 Stacey Garrity, good job.

1:01:09 Way to effort that.

1:01:09 Thank you.

1:01:10 Um I do have a pet theory that the way

1:01:13 that Democrats deal with what is becoming like

1:01:16 a I'm not even sure it's as much of a wedge

1:01:18 issue because Democratic voters now are pretty I mean,

1:01:21 I can't tell you how many focus groups I do with Dems um in these Dem primaries.

1:01:25 They all know who AIPAC is giving money to.

1:01:27 It's not just sort of track AIPAC.

1:01:28 Like people are locked in on this issue.

1:01:31 They are mad at Israel.

1:01:31 It is shifting quickly among Democratic and independent voters.

1:01:35 Um and so I do think I I think that the one of the ways

1:01:39 that Democrats could handle this is by having

1:01:42 a Jewish candidate who is deeply critical of Israel.

1:01:45 J.B.

1:01:45 Pritzker fits that bill.

1:01:47 Ossoff fits that bill.

1:01:48 And Shapiro fits that bill.

1:01:49 Rahm Emanuel Rahm Emanuel Rahm Emanuel I don't mean to erase Rahm.

1:01:53 I think Rahm's going to I'm going to Rahm's

1:01:55 going to inject some interesting energy into the primary.

1:01:57 of energy.

1:01:58 I do not think that's where voters are going.

1:02:00 Okay.

1:02:01 But Uh Yeah, and I just think people are looking

1:02:04 for a brand new Like not not brand brand new,

1:02:07 but like someplace we haven't tried before, that not a long history.

1:02:12 Um and so uh but the thing is I I'll just say Pete does make

1:02:17 my heart go pitter-patter because Pete does

1:02:20 the thing that I'm desperate for Democrats to do,

1:02:22 which is like it's not just going on podcasts.

1:02:25 And I saw you guys reacting to his thing,

1:02:27 and I did not think you were nice enough to him.

1:02:29 That's Dude, the the the Pete hive Boy,

1:02:32 if you are like all I said about Pete was I

1:02:35 think he's the best one of the best communicators out there.

1:02:38 He's unbelievably good.

1:02:39 You can send him anywhere, Fox News, conservatives, All-In podcast, anyone.

1:02:42 He'll dominate CNBC, crush Joe Kernen.

1:02:45 But all I said was I thought that is actually kind of a different skill than

1:02:49 being able to go into every community and get

1:02:51 votes in every community because as we've seen,

1:02:53 his numbers with black voters, for example, are like very very low,

1:02:56 and he really needs to work on that.

1:02:58 That was it was an observation about data.

1:03:00 People take that so personally.

1:03:02 Yeah, well, I think part of it is that um Pete part

1:03:06 of the reason that they take it personally is Pete inspires love in people.

1:03:09 Like they really do.

1:03:11 And and he does that kind of for me uh where I think that he is he's

1:03:16 the this idea of like I'm going to go

1:03:17 to Oklahoma and I'm going to talk to people there.

1:03:19 that's great, by the way.

1:03:20 And and the thing is is that while we tend to get in these Twitter

1:03:23 arguments about do you go on this podcast or this streamer, he's like,

1:03:25 "Oh, I'm going to actually go sit with people because that's actually the real

1:03:29 thing." The rest of this stuff over here is a sideshow to the real voters.

1:03:34 And so I'm because I'm obsessed with listening to voters,

1:03:36 I'm obsessed with candidates who care about engaging with voters.

1:03:40 This was like young Joe Biden with the arm around

1:03:43 people and like being around Trump with his stupid rallies,

1:03:47 but like creating good dance party vibes.

1:03:49 Like the Democrat who was going to win, who I do think is going to be somebody

1:03:53 who manages to not tip over into saccharine or treacle,

1:03:56 but does have a very clear sense of vision, hope,

1:04:00 future, how we bring come back together as a country.

1:04:03 I do think people are hungry for that.

1:04:05 I think he has it.

1:04:06 Um and so And Ossoff has just been like

1:04:10 as a I think messaging matters more now than ever.

1:04:13 Uh and I think he is doing it.

1:04:15 And every time I see him give a speech,

1:04:16 I kind of like do a lap in the room with my head Yes.

1:04:19 Yeah, it's hard not to just turn into a cheerleader for the guy.

1:04:22 If he wins that Georgia Senate election, which, you know, knock on wood,

1:04:26 uh he will be vaulted into, you know,

1:04:28 top top candidate for the Democratic primary.

1:04:31 Well, I'll be pushing him.

1:04:32 Uh Sarah Longwell, thank you so much for doing this.

1:04:35 Fascinating to talk to you.

1:04:36 Uh and really appreciate it.

1:04:37 Yeah, thanks, Tommy.

1:04:38 Good to see you.

1:04:38 Too.

1:04:39 I'll put gas in your car next time.