Tim Miller: Sen. Cassidy Chose to Lose Like a Coward | Focus Group

0:00 They like Marco because he's bilingual, because he's calm,

0:04 because he's level-headed, because he's strong character.

0:08 They think JD is too aggressive.

0:11 It's like, all of YOU VOTED FOR TRUMP THREE TIMES.

0:14 Trump has terrible character.

0:15 He's not calm.

0:16 He's not level-headed.

0:17 He doesn't want to mend fences.

0:18 He can barely speak one language.

0:24 Hello everyone and welcome to the Focus Group podcast.

0:27 I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark,

0:29 and this week we're going to Louisiana,

0:31 which in all of my years of doing focus groups,

0:34 I have never done to cover an election.

0:37 Uh so I start now.

0:38 Well, because Senator Cassidy is really on the ropes as he runs for re-election.

0:44 You may remember him as one of the seven Republican

0:47 senators who voted to convict Donald Trump after January 6th.

0:50 Good for him.

0:51 I was a big Cassidy stan in the wake of that.

0:55 Uh because that meant he wanted to bar Trump from ever holding office again.

1:00 Unfortunately, after Trump won his re-election in 2024,

1:05 Cassidy has been now a force for sort

1:07 of rubber stamping a lot of Trump's worst impulses,

1:10 not the least of which was giving Robert F.

1:13 Kennedy Jr.

1:14 the key vote he needed to become HHS secretary in which was a uh

1:19 pretty obvious self-serving tactic to try to get back on MAGA's good side,

1:24 but does not look like it's worked.

1:26 Uh sadly for Cassidy,

1:27 Republicans in Louisiana have a very long memory about his impeachment vote uh

1:32 and he may finish third in this primary getting locked out of the runoff.

1:36 In the back half of the show,

1:37 we also have some surprising focus group

1:39 audio about the Marco Rubio boomlet that we

1:43 have been watching cuz we're seeing a lot of it in our focus groups.

1:46 So stay tuned.

1:47 We're also going to test the waters on the Don Jr.

1:50 presidential run that JVL talks about so much.

1:53 My guest today is adopted Louisianan Tim Miller, host of The Bulwark podcast,

1:59 my co-host on The Next Level,

2:01 and my, you know, friend in all things, Tim Miller.

2:04 What's up, buddy?

2:05 What up, Sarah?

2:06 Thank you for the invite.

2:08 I was happy to do it.

2:09 I love hearing the Louisiana accents, the best accents in the country.

2:12 I will say for listeners like me who

2:15 find the Focus Group podcast a torment at times,

2:20 listening to the entire Focus Group unedit

2:23 unedited without Sarah's takes in the middle, uh just listening to all of it,

2:29 being in the room with these people for hours at a time,

2:33 it is a torture only Sartre could imagine.

2:36 It is It's brutal.

2:38 And I I just I mean yeah, I honor you in all things for continuing to do this.

2:43 You don't love it?

2:43 You don't listen to them and still see You don't find like glimmers of hope?

2:47 You don't find places where you the humanity really shines humanity.

2:50 We're I'm kind of close I'm closer to you than I am to JVL on this question.

2:53 I love being among the people of being at a jazz fest.

2:56 I love talking to people.

2:57 Here's what I don't really love, hearing idiots tell me what they think about

3:01 politics for two or three hours at a time.

3:03 You know what I mean?

3:04 Like I'd love to listen to this group

3:06 talk to me about their favorite gumbo recipe,

3:09 what they think about Lane Kiffin, you know, what anything,

3:12 what how their kids are doing, what their life aspirations are.

3:17 Having to listen to their politics takes, it's it's a it's a specific torture.

3:23 And it's tough for me, but I did it for you and for the listeners.

3:26 that.

3:27 I appreciate that.

3:27 I will say, and this is my rejoinder

3:30 to everyone who makes the similar point to you,

3:32 that democracy is made up of these voters.

3:37 I know.

3:37 This is what we're working with, and I

3:38 think it is essential as we navigate this moment

3:42 to understand what it is we are dealing

3:44 with in terms of people across the political spectrum.

3:47 Quick housekeeping note,

3:49 if you like this episode and you want to see us in person in California,

3:53 go to the bullwark.com/ events.

3:57 Tim, Sam Stein and I will be in San Diego on May 20th and LA on May 21st.

4:01 Come hang out with us.

4:02 Okay, Tim, we're going to start with Cassidy.

4:03 You know how I've started to do that now?

4:05 I have this tick.

4:06 I do okay.

4:07 Okay.

4:07 Okay.

4:08 It's to you.

4:09 I develop this tick.

4:10 I've picked up your tick.

4:11 People in the office here do it, too.

4:12 It's one of the It's just a Sarah-ism that like gets contagious.

4:16 Uh sorry.

4:17 Okay.

4:20 Okay.

4:19 Since you are there in Louisiana

4:21 and and actually before you even get to Cassidy,

4:23 just give us a quick primer on Louisiana politics now that you're down there.

4:28 Like what kind of state is it?

4:30 Like it's so interesting because the local politics is like very vibrant.

4:35 You know, I mean and it's a little less so now.

4:37 I think now that the Democratic Party has become so weakened and eviscerated.

4:41 Like but there's a period of time where you had I mean,

4:44 John Kennedy was a Democrat.

4:45 They talked about this in the in the focus group, right?

4:47 Like we had these conservative Democrats and uh

4:50 then you have kind of the black Democratic

4:52 faction and you have Creole and Cajun voters

4:54 and you have the social conservatives and that's Louisiana.

4:57 So, you have a like more so than like Alabama or whatever,

5:00 you have people who are conservative impulse voters but are also,

5:06 you know, partiers and cussers and all that, right?

5:08 You know, so it's it's it's very It was,

5:11 I think, at one time very dynamic and, you know,

5:13 I had a bunch of friends who worked for Buddy Roemer and various things

5:16 who'd work for races down here who'd tell stories of the tales of yore.

5:19 Um to JBL's newsletter recently from the triad.

5:22 Like there's been an inshitification of Louisiana politics, too.

5:25 Like it's just like I mean, like Trump has overtaken everything.

5:28 The state has become so Republican it's become like

5:30 a one-party state where it's like not that interesting, really.

5:34 Um I went I remember going to I

5:36 went to the Louisiana Republican convention a year

5:38 or two ago just kind of get a sense of what's happening on the ground.

5:41 And people feel There just was not a energy.

5:44 People feel very kind of checked out.

5:47 Like I do feel like it's kind of right for disruption in a way.

5:49 It was interesting listening to the focus groups.

5:51 You hear a lot of these people that kind

5:52 of they don't really love any of the candidates.

5:53 They're kind of frustrated.

5:54 I think there's at least it was kind of right

5:56 for some kind of Louisiana-ish Trump uh to him.

5:59 Like if John Kennedy wasn't so old,

6:01 like maybe that could be him cuz he's kind of distancing from Trump in ways.

6:05 Um and so it probably wouldn't be something that like I

6:07 would like in particular or whatever that person was would emerge,

6:10 but I do think the state is is kind of right for it.

6:13 Uh and then here in in New Orleans it is much

6:16 more dynamic politically and like there's like very big, you know,

6:19 like New Orleans versus the rest of the state, you know,

6:22 type dynamic which you see in a lot of kind of southern states.

6:25 Um where you know, there's a lot

6:27 of tension between city politics and state politics.

6:30 And And for a while that was there was a lot more comity there.

6:33 And I think now less so.

6:34 Like the current governor is very hostile to New Orleans.

6:37 And and you know, so I I I who I think if this kind

6:40 of new that I in the that dynamic has become much more acute recently.

6:44 So I'll kind of see how it all plays out.

6:45 Uh this is not what we talk about in this episode,

6:48 but it's probably worth noting that one of the other

6:50 things that has got me looking at Louisiana lately is

6:53 that they're one of the states where the VRA uh

6:56 that was just sort of gutted by the Supreme Court,

6:59 they're like holding off on their primaries so

7:01 that they can redistrict really fast and try to get They're nullifying votes.

7:04 42,000 people have voted.

7:05 I could go vote right now as we're taping this.

7:08 Um and the house races would be on the ballot.

7:12 And they're going to cancel those votes and move on.

7:14 You know, you want to talk about this.

7:15 It's interesting.

7:15 One of the dynamics of of Louisiana politics is

7:18 as I was just talking about all those factions.

7:20 Like part of what they're doing and and this attack

7:25 on New Orleans is the the second majority minority,

7:29 excuse me, district that they had added.

7:31 Uh they drew around Baton Rouge.

7:33 Big black population in Baton Rouge, too.

7:35 And part because uh the a lot of the MAGA Republicans here hated

7:39 this guy Garrett Graves who's in the Kevin McCarthy kind of wing of the party,

7:42 and I was just a little too rhino-ish for everyone.

7:45 And so they drew him out.

7:47 And and now what they're talking about in this map is to keep

7:51 that new district that prompted the lawsuit around Baton Rouge, you know,

7:54 kind of somewhat intact,

7:56 and that representative was more moderate uh black uh congressman,

8:01 and carve up New Orleans so that New

8:03 Orleans doesn't really have a representative anymore.

8:06 Um and I think that's part of the dynamic that's at play here.

8:09 So, Cassidy, I want to I want to set

8:11 the stage cuz we're going to get to the voters,

8:13 but it's it's not going to be a surprise.

8:15 Spoiler alert, the voters are down on Cassidy.

8:18 Let's have a you and I like a real accounting of our feelings

8:21 about Cassidy cuz both of us have some guilt around Cassidy.

8:25 Um in that I desperately wanted Republicans to vote for impeaching Trump.

8:31 I wanted to protect all of the Republicans who took those votes.

8:36 Uh I thought that was really important to try

8:38 to help people who took that that sort of brave stand.

8:43 The problem is the way Not all of them,

8:45 but some of them have sort of re-engaged with Trump after his election.

8:50 Like they've basically all run in this direction

8:52 of like Cassidy has a trying to protect

8:55 their own political careers from that vote

8:59 by showing just how onside they are subsequently.

9:02 And Cassidy's been particularly difficult for me

9:05 to swallow because he's a doctor

9:07 who knew exactly how dangerous our fake junior was to medicine in this country,

9:13 health in this country.

9:15 And he took what I considered to be like one

9:17 of the one of the worst votes in the Senate.

9:20 How much can we demand of these people?

9:22 And like should we Should we stick with someone like Cassidy

9:25 and continue to support him because he took that brave vote,

9:27 or do we have to judge him?

9:28 Should we judge him by the things he's done subsequently?

9:31 How do you think about it?

9:32 Yeah, I'm going to free you.

9:33 Um I'm going to give you a Louisiana Catholic penance um

9:36 here uh on this and it's because the the the people

9:41 that took a vote to convict Trump or to impeach

9:43 Trump in the house I deserved defense and cover.

9:49 They did.

9:49 Like they took it was a very challenging vote, a brave vote really.

9:54 And um there've been several of them that have

9:55 since gone on to do things that annoy me

9:58 including Peter Meijer in the house who's now like

10:01 on CNN saying the most annoying things all the time.

10:04 And so you know, it doesn't mean that you did

10:06 one brave thing we get to shower you with praises forever.

10:10 In life, you know, you have to continue to act

10:13 with integrity and I thought that Bill Cassidy did.

10:16 I think I would have given a lot of leeway to somebody like

10:19 Bill Cassidy to do various things

10:21 to demonstrate that he still was a conservative,

10:24 you know, but that this was a principled stand.

10:27 Um but like there just limits to that leeway.

10:29 And what Bill Cassidy has done which we're going to find out

10:32 in these focus groups is I think really tanked his credibility with everybody.

10:38 And it was a choice that he made.

10:39 It wasn't a choice that he had to make and I don't I think that it

10:43 would have been very challenging going any route

10:47 for him to be reelected to the Senate.

10:49 There are greater things in life than being in the Senate

10:51 your entire life but had he wanted to try,

10:54 I I do think that there was a path of running with integrity

10:56 and trying to do like an Evan McMullin style thing or Dan Osborne, right?

11:01 Where he could have said he was going to be an independent or John Fetterman.

11:05 How about Fetterman is a decent example.

11:07 Fetterman votes with the Democrats 91% of the time but just on key

11:11 things doesn't and the Democrats don't like

11:13 him and that's never going to change.

11:15 Cassidy could have tried that approach.

11:16 Like voted his conscience on conservative issues.

11:19 Uh said he was going to re-run for reelected as an independent.

11:22 The Louisiana Democratic primary is it's maybe the weakest recruitment

11:28 field in any state in the country and even Alabama,

11:30 Mississippi have have decently credible candidates running this time.

11:35 We we don't the people that are good I've met

11:37 them they're nice people but it's just there's no juice.

11:40 And so imagine had he decided to do that like

11:43 let this mega primary play out run as a conservative independent.

11:47 Follow up his integrity on RFK Jr.

11:49 He was a doctor he is a vaccine advocate

11:51 his wife is as well opposed RFK opposed Trump when he

11:55 does corrupt things but still support whatever conservative mega policies

11:59 you want to vote for the stupid big beautiful bill whatever.

12:02 Run as an independent.

12:03 I think he probably still loses.

12:05 But I don't maybe not though who knows like how bad

12:08 the economy gets we'll see how things go in red states um.

12:11 That would have at least been a path I think they would have

12:14 had an equal chance at success maybe slightly less chance of success but more.

12:18 Chance of being able to look yourself in mirror at night and he

12:21 didn't do that he chose to do this and his ads are disgusting.

12:23 I guess the one other thing before we get

12:24 to the focus groups and you hear this in the focus groups.

12:27 Like the ads here are just.

12:30 They're everywhere you can't get away from them

12:32 and it is just entirely Julia Letlow is a moderate

12:36 squish rhino and Bill Cassidy is the real mega

12:40 Bill Cassidy betrayed Trump and Julia Letlow is the real

12:43 mega that's the only thing the ads are about

12:45 it's just they've they're spending tens upon millions of dollars

12:48 to do TV ads about how the other person

12:49 is a rhino and how they love Trump the most.

12:51 And so if you're going to run that kind kind of campaign[ __] him.

12:54 That's where I'm at.

12:55 Yeah I mean this is I guess this is where I am which is.

12:59 You took that vote cuz you knew it was the right thing to do

13:02 which means you know all the rest of this how wrong it is and.

13:06 You can lose.

13:09 Swinging like you can go down swinging and saying like this stuff is wrong.

13:14 Or you can lose.

13:16 The way he's losing now like you've you've actually have done.

13:20 Harm to.

13:22 The medical community that you that like you swore an oath to you have done

13:26 harm to our to America and like you're going to get crushed and they hate you.

13:32 Like I don't know.

13:34 Um I guess I I can't quite find it in my heart

13:36 to be sad for him um because of the damage that he's done.

13:40 Um but sometimes I feel guilty about that.

13:43 I'll just So I'll just name that.

13:45 All right, let's listen how the voters talk about Cassidy right now.

13:48 Just to be clear for this uh for this episode uh we did

13:52 two groups of Louisiana Republicans who are voting in their May 16th primary.

13:58 Let's start by listening to how they talk about Cassidy.

14:01 Bill Cassidy?

14:02 Outdated.

14:04 He's slimy in my opinion.

14:06 He reminds me a lot of a lot

14:08 of the 80s politicians where he's very uh two-faced.

14:14 Well, I was just saying it that way.

14:16 A lot of these guys and it's one face

14:19 for the media and then it's another face for the public.

14:23 It's one of the reasons why I'm kind

14:24 of turned off a little bit by him right now.

14:26 Anybody trying to impeach my man Trump doesn't have my vote.

14:30 I just don't feel that I can immediately just go vote for Bill Cassidy again.

14:36 There's something holding me back to like investigate um

14:40 more of the other two people that are running.

14:44 And I don't know if I necessarily call it slimy cuz

14:47 like I'm saying I haven't really paid attention to everything he's done.

14:52 It worked for kids like and um I was 100% behind him for every election.

15:00 For it all.

15:01 Um but lately it started with the impeachment of Trump and a lot

15:06 of other things where he changes his mind um he's just changing

15:10 too much to um if you know if if he believes in a certain

15:14 thing and he doesn't believe exactly what Trump does then it's okay.

15:17 He's changing.

15:18 He's wishy-washy because he wants to stay in the party.

15:22 He's not It's like he's not performing as in his beliefs.

15:26 He's more uh performing to just keep the job.

15:29 And I want somebody in that job that believes and wants to work for his beliefs,

15:33 not because anything else.

15:35 If you look at Bill Cassidy 10 years ago as opposed to today, it's like Dr.

15:42 Jekyll and Mr.

15:43 Hyde.

15:44 Like she said, he's slimy.

15:47 He just seems to be very full of himself.

15:50 Awful.

15:51 Like he, you know, he's an expert.

15:54 Um and whether it be, you know,

15:58 uh political field, medical field, or whatever it may be,

16:01 always seems like he's got the facts behind him,

16:04 but rarely does he back himself up.

16:08 He was also very vocal during COVID about how, you know,

16:11 the importance, like wanting to mandate the vaccine,

16:14 the isolation, things like that.

16:17 So, I mean, I get he has a, you know, a medical background,

16:20 but um he he was just he kind of followed Fauci's,

16:25 you know, trust the science mantra,

16:27 and I don't feel like he really had the best interests of the people.

16:31 He had the best interests of his pockets at the time.

16:35 Okay.

16:36 Um when you say best interests of his pockets, he was getting paid.

16:41 I mean, like I don't know of a better way to put it.

16:44 He got paid.

16:45 And paid by who?

16:47 Uh Big Pharma.

16:48 I've probably been waiting six years to not

16:51 vote for him for other reasons as well.

16:55 He now says these positive things about Trump,

16:58 and he is trying to ingratiate himself with uh Trump supporters,

17:04 and there were just too many of us.

17:06 I wrote him a letter after he did that, and promised him that I'd be voting,

17:12 and told him a lot of people would be voting against him.

17:16 And I think he thought 6 years we'd forget.

17:18 We didn't forget.

17:20 So, Tim, do you feel what like how do you receive those clips?

17:25 Is it Is it a little bit of Schadenfreude at Cassidy kind of saying like,

17:31 you know, this is what you get for running into MAGA?

17:33 Or is it a like, man, you buck Trump in a place like there's

17:38 no room for bucking Trump and that remains alarming.

17:40 Like tell me how you receive it.

17:41 Yeah, for sure there's some Schadenfreude.

17:43 I I That last guy I mean me and him aren't going to agree very much

17:46 on politics I wouldn't think as he defines himself

17:48 as a loyal Trump supporter, but he was right.

17:51 Like show me the lie.

17:52 And that's how I feel about these Cassidy ads.

17:54 It's like, you literally voted to bar him from running again.

17:58 And it's not as It's one of these things where it's like,

18:00 I don't know, you know, had you voted, you know,

18:02 had you bucked Trump on some big tax policy thing or, you know,

18:06 had you spoken out against the corruption

18:08 of his of his sons or something and then you still ran for Senate and said you

18:12 still think on balance he's good for the Okay.

18:15 Like you could imagine a way to do that.

18:17 Like Cassidy voted to bar him from ever running again.

18:20 And now his ads are all like, we love you Mr.

18:23 Trump.

18:24 You look so handsome.

18:27 __] you.

18:28 It's fake.

18:28 It's fake and everybody can see it's fake and so the MAGA guy's right.

18:32 Um The thing that I that made me feel a little

18:35 bit of sadness or whatever listening to all of it

18:39 is just nobody's even open to the idea that like what

18:42 Donald Trump did on January 6th was meriting of some censure.

18:47 Um you know, and like that is to me

18:49 the the most depressing part about all of it.

18:53 Um that people I had a lot of disagreements, a lot of takes obviously,

18:56 but generally speaking and that one lady had the crazy

18:59 theory about how Cassidy's being paid by pharma companies.

19:02 But you know, generally their points were There are people that follow

19:06 the news for the most part and there are a couple of examples,

19:09 but you know, there are people who who seemed relatively smart but just having

19:12 misguided views I think on mag and foreign policy and and other policy matters.

19:17 Um but they just I don't know there's something

19:20 about Trump like he has that hold on them

19:23 with that they just can't even abide like

19:27 the idea that him trying to overturn the election

19:31 and and sending a mob to the capital that killed

19:33 police officers is something that requires criticism I forget

19:36 impeachment like anything like there was just no there's

19:39 just no brokering of any critique of Trump on that.

19:42 And that's just kind of the partisan tribal brain

19:45 poisoning that you see and that that part is sad.

19:48 Look I think that one of the things that is I don't know if

19:50 sad's the right way to put it but it is it is a thing

19:52 that we have to contend with which is that as deeply unpopular as Trump

19:56 is like as we tape this uh he is hitting new lows all the time.

20:01 We talked on the next level when we were taping

20:03 yesterday about just how bad his polling is like there's

20:06 and there's sections of like lots of Trump voters abandoning

20:09 him certainly right leading independents abandoning him Hispanics young people.

20:13 It is this grip though that he holds on what

20:17 is a minority of people very much in the country

20:20 and perhaps half of the Republican party because like

20:24 you again last night we watched him in Indiana he

20:26 decided to seek retribution against the state senate people

20:30 who would not redraw the lines uh to gerrymander Indiana

20:35 so he set up a pack spent tons of money

20:37 against them for not doing it and he beat them.

20:40 Like he and so this morning you got reporters being like see how you know how

20:45 incredibly strong Trump is and whatever and it's

20:48 like like he still does he grips the party.

20:52 He can have he can win just about any Republican primary

20:56 that he wants to and that's still the state of the Republican party.

20:59 Yeah and I guess this is kind of the point of the Bush line so to speak

21:02 or like and it's a little different that's why he kind of has to get a little

21:05 lower than that because because Bush was

21:07 like dropping with Republicans at the same time

21:08 at the same rate he was dropping with independents

21:10 and Democrats and that isn't happening with Trump really.

21:13 Um but I that's the point about getting is like how

21:16 can you get low enough where his hold is not great.

21:19 Like there'll be obviously people that are with him to the better

21:21 end but where where that number starts to to dissipate

21:25 You see some evidence of that in the conversation that you you teased

21:29 which we'll get to about like how the party should look in the future.

21:32 Um there are a couple of lines that just come

21:34 to my ear where you can mention as we go along.

21:36 So you know there's like on the outer edges like you can feel like a little bit

21:41 of discontent in the groups but like

21:44 at the fundamental question of like Trump the man nada.

21:49 That's right.

21:49 Okay.

21:50 So there is not a lot of public polling in a race like a three-way

21:55 race in a Republican primary in Louisiana

21:57 but it does look possible that as I said

21:58 before Cassidy could finish third in this primary

22:01 which would trigger a runoff between Representative Julia

22:04 Letlow who is the person that Trump has

22:06 endorsed and the 74-year-old state treasurer John Fleming.

22:10 So uh I'm going to go through how

22:12 the voters talked about both these guys starting with Fleming.

22:14 Let's listen.

22:16 ABC anybody but Cassidy.

22:19 I'd be fine with Letlow instead of Fleming.

22:21 I plan to vote for Fleming but I'd be fine with Letlow.

22:25 I think he's a little bit more of a conservative than she is.

22:28 Um I don't I guess we don't really know how

22:33 they are until they get into office how strong they're going

22:37 to be but from what I've read of him I also

22:40 had an early impression of him from a couple of years back.

22:43 I've been following him where I haven't been following Letlow.

22:47 I was at the doctor's office the other day the other day and there was

22:51 a a group of gentlemen that were sitting

22:55 in the waiting room and they were talking about Fleming.

22:58 And they had one of them knew him from when he was younger.

23:02 And they were talking about how he's very steadfast and everything,

23:07 but the fact was that his age was up there.

23:11 And they all concluded that the reason why he was running was that he felt

23:16 that the state really needed him to at least

23:21 get through one more term to find younger politicians.

23:30 John Fleming, the way they say he he wanted open borders.

23:35 I was against that.

23:36 So, I mean, you look at these candidates and it's

23:39 like they don't vote for the people once they get in.

23:42 Right now, all they're doing is telling you,

23:44 "Oh, I'm going to take care of this.

23:46 I'm going to take Oh." Have they ever enacted a bill?

23:51 I mean, it's like they got a free lunch.

23:53 That's all I have to say.

23:55 Now, look at Fleming.

23:56 He doesn't look too promising.

23:59 And it's just that when we go to vote,

24:02 we really don't have really good candidates anymore.

24:05 It just seems like they all have some kind of skeleton in their closet.

24:11 Uh They took money from somebody, inside trading, um had affairs, stole money.

24:20 You you just get sick of when they have an election

24:22 because it's just all it is is just mere campaigns to me.

24:27 I would just wish we could get somebody different, totally different.

24:31 New ideas.

24:33 I'm going to play the Letlow sound next unless you

24:35 have something specific you want to talk about from that sound.

24:39 No, I just Fleming there's Fleming doesn't

24:41 have the money and Trump endorsed Letlow.

24:43 Um it does feel like that there was is appetite.

24:46 I mean, obviously there's appetite for a more true MAGA type

24:49 candidate here um that just didn't emerge uh for various reasons,

24:53 but yeah, I mean, I think that I was funny listening to everybody.

24:56 I thought maybe there was a path where Fleming sneaks through

24:59 just because Cassidy and Latlow are crushing each other so much.

25:03 But I I don't know.

25:04 My my my suspect I I suspect

25:06 the Trump endorsement probably prevents that from happening.

25:09 Yeah, I mean, we'll play the Latlow sound,

25:11 but I I it to me what was interesting is we selected

25:14 these groups because they said they were going to vote in the primaries, right?

25:17 And so they are actually kind of plugged

25:20 in in the sense that they're following politics.

25:22 They're going to vote in a Republican primary.

25:23 At the same time, they did not have of the candidates.

25:27 Like they seem to This is one of those where sometimes people are like,

25:30 "Do ads make a difference?" And I'm like, listening to these voters,

25:33 they're just repeating stuff they've seen about the candidates

25:36 from the ads that they're getting bombarded with.

25:39 Um and so the candidates themselves don't seem to have

25:42 broken through in a way that has connected to these people.

25:45 Um All right, let's listen to how they talked about Julia Letlow,

25:48 the one that Trump endorsed.

25:50 I'm for Letlow, for sure.

25:52 I haven't really done I don't really know a whole lot about uh Fletcher,

25:56 but um Letlow, I think, you know, I think she has more of a presence.

26:00 I've heard more not not in trying to dig information up, but, you know,

26:06 she comes up more so than than Fleming has on my end.

26:11 There's a commercial on where um Trump is supporting her.

26:15 But then I saw from one of the other candidates,

26:18 maybe it was from from Cassidy's camp, saying that she um she had done some

26:24 things that were very much on the socialistic side.

26:29 I was thinking about why would Trump do this?

26:34 She's pretty much a newbie, right?

26:37 She got into politics because her husband passed away, but whatever.

26:43 Um And then I thought, knowing Trump,

26:47 maybe he wants a weaker link there who would definitely be a true

26:52 100% follower and not question or not give any any blowback at all.

27:03 And if that's the case, then that's sort of a negative because I

27:10 want someone who can be their own person.

27:13 Especially a woman.

27:16 But only from literature that I read that came through direct mail

27:21 that I see anything about her liberal dealings and her liberal voting.

27:27 So, again, just because somebody prints it, doesn't mean it's necessarily true.

27:33 I can't vote for Cassidy after he voted to impeach Trump.

27:37 So, then I'm left with Fleming and Letlow

27:40 and Letlow seems like the better option.

27:43 I'd like that she's a woman.

27:44 I feel for her being a mother and a widow

27:47 and I think she's the middle ground of the race.

27:53 I I feel like she's more left-leaning and she's somewhat

27:58 deceitful when she gives her speeches out to the public.

28:05 But behind closed doors, I think she votes more liberal.

28:10 Uh more like D E I and other things and L B G what ever.

28:21 All those kind of issues.

28:23 I think she's more left-leaning when it comes to those things.

28:27 So, she's not a solid Republican as far as I can tell.

28:33 I do like Ms.

28:33 Letlow.

28:34 I have a uh some of the things she's focused on.

28:37 I think for me personally,

28:38 there's two issues in particular is uh crime and education.

28:44 Trump might be looking at her as um you know,

28:48 um a possible candidate simply because of that.

28:52 She might appeal to more woman voters.

28:55 Okay.

28:56 Um I I hear a bunch of things in here that I that I find interesting.

29:00 One of them is is I try to explain to people all the time

29:02 who kind of want to pick apart how voters talk and I'm like,

29:04 "Guys, this is not linear." Like this is If

29:07 you're looking for like a real linear through line,

29:10 often times you're not going to get one.

29:11 And one of the obvious things is Cassidy is

29:14 getting bombarded with hate because he went against the team.

29:18 The rest of the criticism for some of these other

29:19 guys is that they're they don't think for themselves enough.

29:22 They're like they're instead To me, this is this is classic.

29:26 When people are like, "Well, what do voters think?" I'm like,

29:28 "Guys, like there's not a there's not always a through line here."

29:32 Yeah, they're not thinking that much.

29:34 IT'S LIKE, "AH." AND THEN THEY'VE GOT A LOT

29:36 of deep theories about what might be happening.

29:39 Maybe it's the pharma company.

29:40 Maybe Trump has a hold on her.

29:43 Maybe it's because he wants women voters." And it's just kind of like, "Guys,

29:47 it's not like maybe try to read up

29:50 on what's actually happening." Um I bet it's you know,

29:53 it's easier to concoct theories.

29:55 You got in this focus group.

29:55 You got to come up with something to say.

29:56 I don't know.

29:57 But uh the DEI or LGB LBG, whatever, uh one stood out to me.

30:02 Some great accents though.

30:04 You know, it's not the hee-haw southern accents in Louisiana.

30:07 That that lady saying again, you know, you got the Cajun.

30:11 Um a lot of a lot of differentiation in the accents I like.

30:14 No, they're not a Actually a lot more, really.

30:16 Like there's not a lot of excitement for him.

30:18 They really they dislike Bill Cassidy.

30:21 And um and kind of what I said at the top about

30:24 like the insipidification and and me going to that uh Republican event,

30:27 uh there's just not a lot of energy and enthusiasm.

30:30 You don't see there's not this deep bench of people.

30:34 It's different that you kind of need This is

30:36 where our old free market Republicanism comes in.

30:38 You kind of need competition and creative destruction to get You know,

30:42 if you look at for like where are the exciting Republicans coming from?

30:46 At least Republicans that they're excited about it.

30:47 It's states that are like kind of red,

30:49 but like there's still some competition there.

30:52 And that's not happening here.

30:54 And so it's kind of dying out in a way, but I yeah, I don't know.

30:58 I mean she's probably going to win, but there's no enthusiasm.

31:02 And the whole thing feel And they're right to think it

31:04 feels like a charade cuz it kind of is a charade.

31:06 Like she's not a mega person, Fleming's not a mega person.

31:09 Trump has to endorse one of them.

31:11 They kind of want a mega person.

31:13 And I think what they're trying to say when they

31:14 want independence is they like is what John Kennedy does.

31:17 Like they want somebody that's going to like spout off when they,

31:20 you know, disagree about something, but almost in a populist direction.

31:25 Yeah.

31:24 And like that's sort of what they're looking for.

31:26 And then there's none of these options are giving it to them.

31:29 Not to take us in a whole crazy direction,

31:31 but I've been uh I've been spending a lot

31:33 of time with Democratic focus groups lately, too.

31:37 And watching how they are shifting in ways that feel in some ways I

31:42 don't know how to how to say this except for the same but different.

31:47 Familiar.

31:47 It feels familiar.

31:48 That's right.

31:48 It feels it's an echo of what we saw during the transformation of Trump,

31:53 which is basically the sense of Trump is not far right.

31:59 People describe him as far right.

32:01 People Trump is uh and that's because he's fascist, he's fascistic,

32:06 but he doesn't exist on this left to right spectrum in quite the same way.

32:10 And so people who are having an argument on the Dem side about whether they

32:13 should be more moderate or more progressive

32:15 sort of misunderstand what's happening with the voters.

32:18 And another way to talk about it is sort of establishment versus insurgent,

32:22 but the insurgent doesn't need to be progressive.

32:26 The insurgent could be sort of whatever on policy side as long

32:30 as it look like they were going to show up and fight like crazy.

32:33 Um right?

32:34 Because this is the the appetite uh that you can feel.

32:39 And this is like what it is for these voters, too.

32:41 They don't want normal politicians.

32:43 Like, the best they'll get is the Trump endorsement

32:46 because at least Trump is the non-regular politician picking somebody.

32:50 But, like, it does feel as though if somebody came in, uh,

32:57 as an independent and ran a super

33:00 populist working-class campaign that never mentioned DEI,

33:04 never mentioned LGB whatever.

33:06 Um, like, they could get really far in a place like Louisiana.

33:11 Like, that's the shift in the politics is this like anti-elitist,

33:16 anti-people controlling things.

33:17 I mean, you hear this is everywhere.

33:19 And it's not just conspiracies,

33:20 it's just like the grammar of hidden knowledge is what I call it in the book.

33:23 But, this idea that there's like cabals out there,

33:25 people pulling the strings, there's something they're not telling us.

33:29 That is replete.

33:29 It's like money in politics.

33:32 How do you Are you shifting anything that you think about just

33:35 how we talk about politics or how we think about the political coalitions?

33:39 I think that's a good question.

33:39 But, there's a specific example.

33:40 There's a gal named Liz who has a great, we call it a New Orleans yacht accent.

33:45 Um, and she's saying, I don't know, I won't I won't try to imitate her.

33:48 But, she goes, "Is crime better?

33:49 Is education better?

33:50 Is the economy better?

33:52 No.

33:53 And we don't pay our TSA workers?

33:56 I I don't think they care about the people.

33:58 I have to vote Republican, but they don't vote for the people." And I I

34:01 I think that that really kind of encapsulated it for me.

34:03 Like, that woman was there was among the people in the focus group

34:06 we were watching like felt like she was following the news the most.

34:09 And, um, I I think she ended up saying she'd be for Letlow.

34:11 But, like, that There were head nods.

34:15 Like, that idea, I think, is out there on on both sides.

34:19 Right?

34:19 Like, now, what they want, you know, what that woman, Liz,

34:22 would want is is probably very different from what

34:25 somebody in like a Michigan Democratic focus group.

34:27 They could say the same sentence, basically,

34:29 but want largely different, you know, policies and candidates.

34:34 But that is out there.

34:35 I I think that it's ripe for the taking.

34:38 And I And And I don't I don't know.

34:39 I just I don't There's something about maybe it's

34:42 the internet age where things spread so quickly where conventional wisdom

34:48 becomes Everyone accepts this conventional wisdom so quickly that you

34:52 end up getting people that sound a lot the same, you know, on both sides.

34:58 And And And or maybe a couple different types of the same, you know,

35:01 like you have the populist guy and the establishment

35:03 person on both sides and then that's it.

35:05 They're like four different brands.

35:07 And people want something that changes it up and mixes it up.

35:11 And I do think I don't know.

35:13 I I don't actually know what the answer is,

35:15 but the more I listen to stuff like this, the more I'm like I you know,

35:19 I I I do think that someone could could in this moment

35:24 or soon reorient the coalitions in a way that people don't expect.

35:29 Um And that that could backfire, too,

35:32 but I I I think that it's possible with the right type of, you know,

35:36 populist or populist-adjacent type of messaging.

35:39 Yeah, I mean, I'm trying not to talk about my book

35:42 too much because while I'm trying to dial it back.

35:46 I'm trying to dial it back, okay?

35:49 Um because nobody gets I can keep talking about it,

35:51 but people can't actually read it.

35:53 And so this is like an annoying little juncture here where it's not out there,

35:57 but like I know what I said in it.

35:59 And like the thesis is kind of this is that there's a world

36:04 for a This is why it's like people are like Sarah's a centrist or a Mhm.

36:08 you know, whatever.

36:08 And I'm like, this is not the politics Yeah,

36:10 but but this is not the politics of Sarah Longwell.

36:13 Like it's just not my It is the politics

36:15 of the people that I have listened to and what is

36:18 so clear to me is like people are pitchfork

36:22 at the ready on the right and the left against elites,

36:27 against people they think are controlling things,

36:28 but what they want is that they're kind of filling in the gaps with that.

36:31 What they want is for everyone to focus

36:34 on their material well-being and the opportunities to get there,

36:37 which is education, uh which is the jobs, it's the economy,

36:41 it's how do I afford how do I make

36:42 the trade-off choice between child care and having a job,

36:46 um it's how do I have afford health care

36:48 in an environment where health care is becoming increasingly unaffordable.

36:51 Like that's what people talk about and think about.

36:54 And so like when they get mad about

36:56 the ballroom or when they get mad about LGBT whatever,

37:00 most of that is just like a why are you talking about that?

37:02 I don't care about that.

37:04 It's not even that they're hostile.

37:06 Like the number of Democrats in the focus groups

37:08 who are like I I'm cool with trans people.

37:11 Trans great.

37:12 I don't care.

37:12 They're grown-ups.

37:13 Let them do whatever.

37:14 But can we stop talking about it because it

37:16 doesn't do anything to lower the rent prices of me

37:18 and my friends or like the job opportunities

37:21 or like what are we going to do about AI?

37:23 Even the gerontocracy, right?

37:24 The down with the gerontocracy feeling is related to that, too.

37:28 It's like be strong enough and vibrant enough

37:30 and and young enough that you understand this new world

37:33 we're living in and the technology that's advancing

37:35 and the way that it's impacting the economy that affects me.

37:38 And so like there is a whole world for the taking there, in my opinion,

37:43 if somebody would just do like I'm going to focus entirely on people's material

37:47 well-being like that also doesn't matter about

37:49 what the precise solutions are while saying

37:52 we wanted a a closed border um but some plan to allow immigrants to come

37:57 here the right way and like don't talk about the DEI LGBT LGB whatever.

38:03 Like doesn't mean that you don't have it.

38:04 Just like it shouldn't be what you lead with because the vast majority of people

38:10 don't like they'll fight about it if you throw it as chum in the water,

38:14 but that's not what matters to their lives.

38:16 This has been bubbling up.

38:17 I wrote a piece for the Atlantic man usually I

38:19 write pieces for the Atlantic just to make J V L

38:21 mad about this, about the fact that I am hearing

38:23 in groups pretty regularly a lot of praise for Marco Rubio.

38:27 Now, I can't tell quite if that is because people hate J.D.

38:31 Vance as an alternative, if it's because Marco seems like

38:34 the one grown-up in this idiotic administration.

38:37 I think it kind of has to do with that meme where Marco

38:39 ends up with every job because he's the one person they give stuff to.

38:43 He's the one who knows how to do anything.

38:44 Um so, I've got a mashup here of the Vance-Rubio sentiments we've heard.

38:49 Before we get to it, can I just say my I could shout out my mother?

38:52 Yeah, why not?

38:53 I was on the phone with my mother last night.

38:55 She was listening to the next level this week.

38:58 And she had written down notes.

38:59 I'm so embarrassed she listened to that, to us

39:01 do all that Bush-line, Dick-line stuff.

39:04 It is I it's kind of weird I try not to tell her that, to be honest.

39:07 I know, I know she didn't she's not not a cuss or sex talk person.

39:10 So, I'm I'm grateful that she's listening.

39:12 But she said I was very I was too positive about J.D.

39:16 Vance's prospects and too negative about Marco's.

39:19 And she's like with my friends, she was just like,

39:21 I need to tell them that it's like it's people are ready are moving to Marco.

39:26 And so, she tells me that last night and then I

39:28 listen and then I know some of these focus groups this morning.

39:30 So, anyway, shout out to my mother for her political analysis.

39:33 Yeah, let's let's let's listen to the clips.

39:35 I think it's amazing that Marco Rubio, he's bilingual.

39:37 I think that's neat to have someone with that ability.

39:42 Okay.

39:41 He comes across like he he knows what he's talking about and he seems confident.

39:49 I would definitely vote for him over J.D.

39:53 Vance.

39:54 He's a good vice president.

39:55 I just don't know that I he would definitely

39:59 wouldn't be as strong a leader as as Trump is.

40:03 I wouldn't put all my eggs in Vance's basket,

40:05 so I of course I don't want to hear what Rubio has to say.

40:07 I know J.D.

40:08 Vance has experience,

40:09 but I find that Marco Rubio is just very polished and poised.

40:14 He's very quick-witted, so he he's able to react quickly,

40:17 but I don't feel like he reacts with any kind of like I

40:23 like I feel like his reactions are very well gauged for the situation.

40:28 Marco Rubio has just done a phenomenal job.

40:31 Um with like all of the people I I feel like he's going to every

40:37 hostile country lately and negotiated peace treaties

40:41 and tried to just make people be friends almost,

40:45 but at least just be civil to each other.

40:48 Um so I feel like he's done a really really good job with that.

40:52 As vice president, he really is just a spare um when he's needed.

40:57 You don't see him doing as much as Marco Rubio,

41:01 so that's why a lot of attention isn't on him.

41:04 If there's a a vote breaker, he goes in.

41:08 Um he may travel, he may do speeches,

41:12 but I just see Marco Rubio as a person that is for us

41:18 he's more level-headed and can speak

41:21 to somebody without really putting them down.

41:25 J.D.

41:26 Vance, I like him, but sometimes he he appears too aggressive when he talks.

41:36 I think he's also going to be a great candidate.

41:38 Um you know, not only because he's Latino,

41:41 which I I think he'll go much further towards maybe um mending a lot of fences.

41:49 I guess, you know, because of um you know,

41:52 you have the immigration policies and then uh just a lot of the policies

41:57 that have taken place in the last couple years as far as you know,

42:01 the big cities with the immigrants.

42:02 I think he'll he'll mend a lot of fences that way.

42:05 J.D.

42:05 Vance is going to have the same problem that Kamala Harris had.

42:08 Uh right now people are kind of struggling with the uh economy,

42:12 the cost of living, stuff like that.

42:14 And I think that maybe a failure to distinguish

42:19 that if it continues all the way into 2028,

42:22 he's going to lose because people want change.

42:24 And then And then Marco Rubio, he doesn't really stand out as a person.

42:29 I just think America's blessed to have either one.

42:32 So, I'm not That's kind of a toss-up and no telling

42:37 what issues could come up or changes in the next couple years.

42:41 But uh it's just all pros and no cons for both of them for me.

42:47 I'm just amazed at the quality of people that are attracted to work for Trump.

42:52 I think the key they both represent

42:54 the great American story from their backgrounds,

42:57 where they came from as young people,

42:58 and how they built themselves up into this.

43:00 It's just It shows you the quality of bench of the Republican Party.

43:04 So, I don't think you can lose with either one.

43:08 Like Vance, but I think Marco Rubio is has a stronger character.

43:16 And I think more people would probably more

43:21 Republicans would definitely vote for him than for Vance.

43:25 Maybe him as for running as president and Vance as vice president again.

43:32 So, to be clear, plenty of Republicans we talked to still like J.D.

43:35 Vance fine.

43:36 Like there's a lot of people who just see him as like heir apparent.

43:38 Like that's in there.

43:39 But Rubio's entire brand has become sort of like toughness and competency,

43:44 while Vance is like mini Trump kind of.

43:49 Uh angry.

43:48 I I don't And this is the part that's enough to make you start cutting.

43:53 Uh they like Marco because he's bilingual,

43:57 because he's going to mend fence with Latinos,

44:00 because he's calm, because he's level-headed, because he's strong character.

44:05 They think J.D.

44:06 is too aggressive.

44:08 It's like, all of YOU VOTED FOR TRUMP THREE TIMES.

44:11 Trump has terrible character.

44:13 He's not calm.

44:13 He's not level-headed.

44:14 He doesn't want to build fences.

44:15 He can barely SPEAK ONE LANGUAGE.

44:20 WHAT?

44:21 WHAT?

44:22 AND SO like this is where it's just like we know nothing.

44:25 Nobody knows anything.

44:26 We can pretend to know, we can think,

44:28 but the like the power of rationalization is so strong.

44:30 And I think that just a lot of this is like people backfill.

44:35 Like they decide they like somebody for whatever reason,

44:37 and then they backfill reasons.

44:40 Yeah.

44:39 Right?

44:40 And so it's like I like Trump, and I like him because he's gruff and he

44:44 says what he thinks and because he's whatever.

44:46 And uh and I like Marco,

44:48 and it's cuz he's calm and he's measured and he's level-headed.

44:53 And it's uh you know, and so I don't know.

44:55 It's it'll it'll make you pull your hair out.

44:57 But I That's the part that's like, okay, well,

45:00 that rationale for Marco cuts against what you're saying, clearly.

45:05 Like I I if people, you know,

45:06 maybe maybe Republican voters at some level get, you know,

45:11 not that they want to go back to the old Republican party, don't get me wrong.

45:13 But maybe they've gotten enough of a fill over

45:16 12 years with Trump as the outsider that they're like,

45:21 as long as it's a Trump person,

45:23 maybe we could use something that's a little bit more whatever.

45:28 You know, calm.

45:29 Um a little bit less crazy.

45:31 I I This is just a I'm just throwing out a theory,

45:33 you know, that that that that's possible.

45:35 And that's a rationale for kind of an establishment handover.

45:38 A MAGA establishment.

45:40 Yeah, a handover, not like a populist uprising.

45:44 And maybe that's where the right is headed.

45:47 And uh and you know,

45:48 less interest in some populist replacement like Tucker Carlson.

45:51 I don't I don't know.

45:52 And I just think that's something to continue to monitor.

45:55 I I think that overanalyzing this stuff maybe can be a little bit.

45:57 Because like I said,

45:58 I think that a lot of them are just like they like Marco right now.

46:00 He seems like he's doing a good job,

46:01 and now they're just kind of telling us why.

46:03 That's right.

46:03 And I So, I don't I do not want to over like read into this exactly.

46:11 I guess the reason I'm so fascinated by it is for two reasons.

46:15 One is I actually think people liking Rubio has

46:18 a Even though some of these people are like, "What an embarrassment of riches,

46:21 these men you know, these great people that Trump has around him."

46:24 But, I think for a lot of people it's just them souring on J.D.

46:29 And they're like, "The other one sort of in the offing is Rubio." Yeah.

46:33 The The other thing that I think is interesting just to track,

46:38 is that as we watch the Tucker Marjorie Taylor Greene America First

46:42 wing sort of break with Trump and become a thing of its own,

46:46 and then versus the MAGA establishment, you can see a world where J.D.

46:50 Vance, in an attempt to try to be over

46:54 both of those and sort of bring them together,

46:56 actually ends up in the sour spot.

46:58 And it's sort of a MAGA establishment

46:59 versus America First head-to-head, um and J.D.

47:05 Vance like there's no place for him.

47:07 Um So, it's just an interesting thing to watch.

47:10 It's It's just possible.

47:11 Among other things.

47:12 Is it?

47:12 Okay.

47:13 Well, uh you know, this is why I listen to voters.

47:16 They often know where things are going a little bit more than

47:18 She's got a lot of Trump voting friends.

47:20 Yep.

47:20 That's right.

47:22 Uh okay, so JVL has been talking about Don Jr.

47:26 as like the obvious replacement.

47:28 And I push back on this all the time, cuz I I just don't see it.

47:31 Um Also, it never comes up.

47:34 Like, I've never heard a voter be like, "You know who I'm really got my eye

47:38 on." But, since JVL and I have been arguing about it,

47:41 I've started to asking it specifically in the groups

47:44 what people think of the idea of Don Jr.

47:45 running.

47:46 And so, this is those two groups of Louisiana Republicans.

47:49 We talked about it with both of them.

47:50 Let's hear what they had to say about Don Jr.

47:53 We don't really know a whole lot about him politically.

47:57 You know what I mean?

47:58 Um just be like based on that Trump's son,

48:03 um depending on what our other options would be,

48:06 you know, I I wouldn't be against it, you know?

48:11 Hard pass on him.

48:13 Um just I you didn't really hear much of his name before Trump became president,

48:18 even as a business person.

48:20 Um I mean, I know he's had his own personal successes,

48:22 but most of them had been because of who his father is.

48:26 Um you hear more about his struggles with drug addiction and you know,

48:31 his his downfalls than you do any positive.

48:34 Um I think he's a really good public speaker,

48:37 but I also I don't feel like he really has the knowledge behind

48:41 him to lead our country and and do what would need to be done.

48:45 I feel like not in '28, maybe down the road, but

48:48 Yeah, most definitely farther down the road.

48:49 Uh I think if you give Junior I will call him Junior.

48:54 If you give him another 10, 15 years,

48:58 uh with the right experience and uh you know,

49:03 following his father's example, I think he'll be a good candidate.

49:05 I really do.

49:07 Um you go back, look at the Kennedys.

49:09 Look at the Bushes and all of the the issues

49:12 we've had with both of those families over the years and we've had some some

49:17 pretty good politicians or leaders come out of that.

49:20 So, give him a fair shake and I think he'll be all right, you know?

49:25 I think maybe Eric Trump uh I think he's sharp.

49:31 But I agree, not in '28.

49:33 Not in '28.

49:35 At the end of the day, he still has to get elected,

49:36 but I don't know, like what are his qualifications?

49:39 Um like is it just cuz his daddy was president?

49:42 Like suddenly now like he I mean,

49:43 of course Donald Trump didn't have many either.

49:46 Um but yeah, so I guess I'm just a little skeptical.

49:50 Rather than Don Jr.,

49:51 I think Jared Kushner has more experience and is getting more

49:55 experience these days and I I'd prefer to vote for him

50:01 than um Trump just because of the Trump name because

50:05 he's the son of Donald Trump as far as that goes.

50:08 So Tim, your thesis on Don Jr.

50:10 was that he comes across as the idiot kid.

50:12 Um how do you think these clips jive with that particular analysis?

50:16 yeah, I I think that what my one caveat to this is we're not in a campaign.

50:22 And if if we ended up in a campaign and and the chips fell where uh you know,

50:28 for whatever reason uh there was not a compelling case being

50:34 made to these voters by the other Republicans and Don Jr.

50:36 decided to run and his dad got fully behind him and uh you know, who knows?

50:40 Like uh uh this is crazy.

50:43 Our country's crazy.

50:44 The Republican Party's crazy.

50:45 You could imagine a bandwagon effect occurring.

50:48 Like it's not a 0% chance.

50:50 But like the weakness of the case is just laid out there.

50:54 And you know, the one the the uh the woman who made the casual point,

50:58 well Donald Trump didn't have any qualifications either.

51:00 It was the one woman who's like the most

51:01 hostile to Trump in the whole in both focus groups.

51:03 Like she was the closest person to contributing to the Bush

51:06 line and she just felt like things were going poorly.

51:09 And everybody else though,

51:12 I think that they think that Trump was very successful businessman

51:14 and and it was exactly what we needed for the country, right?

51:17 And so like they don't see Trump like we see Trump.

51:21 That's right.

51:21 So you know what I mean?

51:22 I think that that's like the weakness of the JVL

51:24 case is that I think that JVL sees Trump Jr.

51:26 as he sees Trump.

51:28 And so it's like why not?

51:30 Um they're both clowns.

51:31 They both had to use daddy's money.

51:34 Like they both appeal to the MAGA bulk.

51:38 Maybe he could do it.

51:40 And there's not nothing to that, but I think that like the the problem is

51:43 that a lot of the voters and and MAGA

51:45 voters look at them and see very different things.

51:47 Like they see the dad as somebody who was

51:49 very successful on his own and the son who's whatever,

51:52 you know, kind of a little bit clownish.

51:55 And so, you know, I I I think you saw that in that group

51:59 and and you start to see I wouldn't see a little bit I wouldn't see fatigue.

52:03 There's not really Trump fatigue.

52:06 But it's subtle.

52:08 But you do hear the not in '28.

52:12 Yeah.

52:11 You know, it's like a it's like a Trump break.

52:13 We could use a little break here.

52:15 Yeah.

52:16 See what else happens.

52:17 Yeah.

52:17 Let's give somebody else a try.

52:19 You know, if we put up some stiff and the Democrats beat him,

52:22 maybe we're going to have to go back to the Trump family in '32.

52:27 So, I know that now everyone's breaking out in hives.

52:29 But like you can you in that just using that group as an example,

52:32 you can kind of hear that.

52:33 Like you you could imagine that world, right?

52:36 Where the Democrats win a blowout in 2028 over somebody and it's

52:39 like maybe we do need to turn back to the to Trump.

52:42 He was the one that could win.

52:44 Um I don't think that's crazy about.

52:46 Um but but I think it's a tough tough road to hoe for him in '28.

52:50 Yeah.

52:50 I do love just the casual like after all the hostility

52:55 to dynastic politics that we saw from you be like,

52:58 you know, political dynasties were good actually.

53:01 Look at this.

53:02 We got RFK.

53:02 The Kennedys were great.

53:04 You know, we had a period we had a period of bad ones, but then we came around.

53:07 We got this great one with the brain worm in his head.

53:13 All right.

53:14 Tim Miller, thank you so much for coming on the show.

53:16 It was great to talk to you and thanks to all

53:18 of you for listening to another episode of the Focus Group podcast.

53:21 We'll be back next week, but in the meantime,

53:22 remember to rate and review us on Apple podcast,

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53:31 Come see us next week.

53:33 Bye, guys.

53:35 Bye.

53:58 Mhm.