2026 PGA Championship Preview: Betting Strategy, Picks & Analysis
SportsLine
0:12 Good afternoon, everyone.
0:14 Happy Monday and welcome to the Early Edge on CBS Sports Network.
0:17 My name is Sia Nejad and we are brought to you by BetMGM.
0:21 Make it legendary.
0:22 Another legendary show coming your way.
0:24 We're going to be talking a lot of PGA Championship, some previews,
0:28 some picks, and we're going to get to the NBA playoffs as well.
0:31 But first things first,
0:33 we've got our second major and we've got some major stars
0:36 of the show to bring in because we got a preview Aronimink.
0:40 We got a preview the types of players
0:42 we are looking for, some outrights, some long shots.
0:45 Mike McClure, David Bearman, Brady Cannon, gentlemen, we're headed to Philly.
0:49 We're headed to Aronimink.
0:51 We got a par 70, 7,300 and change.
0:55 Brady, one thing that's compelling to me about this course,
0:58 at least from a betting standpoint, is that this is not a typical,
1:02 necessarily a typical major where you got to be long and you know,
1:06 it kind of slices out some portions of the field here.
1:10 This is the type of course where everybody's
1:13 kind of in play to some degree, right?
1:16 I would agree with you, Sia.
1:17 We're used to seeing, you know,
1:19 the PGA Championship has really turned into a bomber's
1:22 paradise in maybe the last decade or so.
1:25 Bryson DeChambeau finishing runner-up the last couple of years.
1:29 You look at the last 10 years, Brooks Koepka's won three times.
1:32 We're used to Quail Hollow and Valhalla and Oak Hill.
1:36 And and I think this is a different test.
1:39 And and I'm really excited to see it.
1:41 I hope mother nature doesn't spoil the party and make it too wet and too soft.
1:46 It could be that way on Thursday, but I think it's going to get more difficult
1:50 as the week goes on, the temperatures heat up, and that moisture goes away.
1:54 And and that's hopefully what we get to see.
1:57 A Donald Ross firm and fast, you know, examination of the short game.
2:02 That's see it to answer your question.
2:04 That's where I'm kind of starting my handicap from about
2:08 150 to 200 yards in and then an exquisite short game.
2:13 That That's the player I'm kind of focused on right now.
2:16 And and I've got a few in mind, a few in pocket,
2:19 um but that's where I'm starting for how to solve this test of anatomy.
2:23 A few in mind and a few in pocket.
2:25 We're going to get to that, so hold that thought, Brady.
2:27 David Beerman, I like the description that that Brady just
2:31 delivered there because I'm kind of thinking of you know,
2:34 the some of those approach ranges, but just just approach in general.
2:37 We know we we have these big greens,
2:39 but you still got to be really solid on approach and get it.
2:42 These greens are going to be tough.
2:43 We get we want we want to be like playing target practice to some
2:46 degree and we probably want to be in the fairway off the tee.
2:49 What are your thoughts in terms of the type of golfer you're looking for?
2:53 Yeah, to agree with Brady,
2:54 the first thing that I did when I was handicapping this is I opened up
2:57 the PGA Tour stats and I started with approaches
2:59 from 150 to 200 just like Brady said.
3:02 That's where I started my list.
3:03 You got to also get off the tee and hit the fairways.
3:06 Even though the rough isn't as penal as some of the US Open courses,
3:10 to be able to hit these greens on the correct side.
3:12 You want to be on the correct side or you're
3:14 you're going to be hitting three putts a lot.
3:16 You got to be able to hit from the fairway.
3:17 So accuracy off the tee to me is a lot more
3:20 important than length off the tee as you noted off the top.
3:22 It's not a bomber's course.
3:24 Get to the fairway, be able to approach from 150
3:27 to 200 and the key here with these large greens,
3:30 not just to be on it, but to be on the correct side of it.
3:33 So you're putting having a decent shot at lagging it towards
3:36 the hole as opposed to watching it wind and dine around.
3:39 We've seen some of these greens not as fast as Augusta National,
3:42 but you know how important it is to be on the correct
3:44 side of them and you're not going to get the correct
3:46 side of them if you can't control the spin and you
3:48 can't control the spin if you're hitting out of the rough.
3:50 So hit the fairways, get those good approach shots, and like Brady said,
3:54 you also got to be good around the greens when you do miss.
3:57 Mike McClure, owner of an outright winner yesterday.
4:00 Anything to add as we turn the page to Aronimink?
4:04 Uh you know, really see I'm just echoing a lot of what the guys have said.
4:07 Uh certainly not a traditional PGA Championship in the sense
4:11 of really having a distinct edge to some of those longer hitters.
4:15 As David mentioned, I think off the tee in terms
4:18 of being accurate is an interesting one to look at.
4:21 And I think it's always interesting when
4:22 you talk about strokes gained off the tee
4:24 because so often that metric actually also
4:26 does kind of include the bombers, right?
4:29 If you're long off the tee,
4:30 you're generally in a better position to kind of gain strokes off
4:33 the tee in general at some of the courses that you play.
4:36 More focused on approach though,
4:38 more focused on short game as well as Brady mentioned.
4:41 For me, it'll be a little bit of scrambling included here.
4:45 I I think that it's really though about
4:47 those approach buckets and that short game overall.
4:51 Mike, one thing that you specialize in, which I really
4:54 appreciate on like the Early Edge Morning Show for example, is the live betting.
4:59 In some of the round will say round one betting
5:01 in this case because that's obviously the first round we're going to see,
5:04 but you like to dabble in the round scores.
5:07 You like to look at things that some people don't always look at.
5:10 For example, who is paired with each other?
5:13 You know, what what groups are going out together?
5:15 Talk to me about your day one strategy at Aronimink.
5:19 Yeah, day one and just tournament in general,
5:21 see I I think that playing partners at major
5:23 championships is still an underrated correlation to success.
5:28 That's especially true in first rounds,
5:31 opening rounds, but the weather in general.
5:33 The reason I like to bet the round scores in round one,
5:36 nobody really has a lot of data yet.
5:38 So, it's heavy speculation on what course conditions will be,
5:42 how things will play.
5:43 As the guys mentioned, a little weather, you know,
5:46 Brady talked about potentially hoping that this thing
5:48 isn't too soft and easy early.
5:50 I think it will be on Thursday.
5:52 I will look for some of the elite uh
5:55 players early Thursday in terms of going round scores under.
5:59 I think it will get fast and firm throughout the weekend.
6:01 So, I think it'll be a very different golf course
6:03 on Thursday than it will be on that final round on Sunday.
6:07 Yeah, that's a really good call in terms of that ship.
6:09 Brady, you mentioned the rain that's probably coming on Wednesday,
6:12 maybe into Thursday, softening conditions a bit.
6:15 When you look at round one,
6:16 is there anything in particular you were going to be looking for?
6:20 Well, I think Mike really nailed it there.
6:22 We're all kind of going in a little bit blind.
6:24 We haven't seen this golf course since 2018
6:27 when Keegan Bradley beat Justin Rose in a playoff.
6:30 Uh and that one was affected by weather.
6:33 The winning score, I believe, was 20 under par.
6:35 So, the guys took it pretty low.
6:37 Uh so, I kind of like to use that first
6:39 day to just look at how the golf course is playing, who looks to be comfortable,
6:44 who is not really volatile as far as their stat sheet is going,
6:48 who is playing really steadily,
6:50 and then come along in day two and maybe nine holes in or something.
6:55 I'm starting to get a feel for opportunities that exist with certain players.
7:00 So, I probably won't be doing anything except
7:03 observing on day one and starting to build
7:06 my thoughts heading into round two and the weekend
7:09 and possibly make some in-game wagers from there.
7:12 All right.
7:13 I love the in-game wager aspect of golf.
7:16 You get the four days to get some information or at least some
7:19 of the four days to get some information and then spring on a live outright,
7:23 for example, or some round scores or some matchups.
7:25 David Beerman, let's switch gears a little bit here.
7:27 Let's talk about maybe a golfer that's not
7:31 completely on the radar that you're looking for.
7:34 Maybe a guy that's not Scottie Scheffler or Rory or Cam
7:37 Young or Fitz that maybe isn't getting the right attention.
7:41 I think Russell Henley at plus 46 to one right now and he
7:44 is the definition of flying under the radar for his entire career.
7:48 When you think major championships and big courses,
7:51 you're not thinking Russell Henley.
7:52 And yes, his iron game has not been good
7:54 of late and he's lost strokes in six out
7:57 of last eight rounds so would would make you not
8:00 want to pick him because you need good irons here.
8:02 But the last time he had good irons was all four rounds of the Masters
8:05 and his game shows at these difficult courses
8:08 that aren't necessarily the T3 at the Masters,
8:12 he's had he's had five top 10s in his last seven major starts.
8:16 He's ninth in shots gained total over that time in major championships.
8:20 So even though he has been struggling of late,
8:23 he shows up at these courses and you know,
8:25 Mike talked about driving and accuracy off the tee.
8:28 This guy leads the tour in accuracy off the tee.
8:31 So if he can get an iron or two into the green,
8:34 I think 46 to one is a nice under the radar play.
8:37 Had his irons not been so bad the last
8:39 two tournaments with six of the eight being losing strokes,
8:43 he might be in my outrights right now as one of my favorites.
8:46 Mike, how about an under the radar guy at Aronimink?
8:50 Uh we're going to talk about him a little later in the show,
8:52 Sia, but for me it's Tyrrell Hatton.
8:54 Uh Hatton is someone who's had top 10
8:56 finishes at every major championship throughout his career.
8:59 Not everyone he's played, but at each of the majors.
9:02 Uh coming off that T3 at the Masters.
9:05 Just a guy that's kind of out of sight, out of mind.
9:07 You know, you think about the guys that aren't regulars on the PGA tour.
9:10 What immediately does come to mind is still Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau.
9:14 Uh Tyrrell Hatton is someone that I think has the skillset and has the current
9:18 form right now to really surprise here and he certainly isn't priced like it.
9:23 Uh Tyrrell Hatton very interesting there.
9:24 Brady Cannon, who's your under the radar guy?
9:27 Well, I I think Hatton is a really sneaky pick and I've
9:31 already seen what appears to be some sharp money come in on Hatton.
9:34 If you look at the odds board at Circa Sports,
9:37 which is known as a pretty sharp store out here in Las Vegas,
9:40 Hatton's number has come down.
9:42 You referenced the third-place finish at the Masters.
9:45 Also interesting to note, guys,
9:47 since 2019 when the PGA Championship moved to May,
9:51 five of the six winners of the PGA Championship
9:56 had finished top 10 in the Masters a month prior.
9:58 Both Russell Henley, the guy David mentioned,
10:01 and Tyrrell Hatton finished top 10 at the Masters.
10:04 Now, my guy as far as under the radar,
10:07 uh missed the cut at Augusta National, and he's cooled off.
10:10 He was red-hot to begin the season, won at Bay Hill.
10:13 Akshay Bhatia, little shaky off the tee, but will guys be, you know,
10:18 dummying down to a three-wood or something just to find fairways here?
10:22 Because after that, Bhatia is money.
10:24 He he's great on approach.
10:26 He is fifth on tour in strokes gained putting.
10:28 He can scramble.
10:29 He has the short game and the approach game chops,
10:33 but you know, will he be in form?
10:35 That's what I'm wondering about.
10:36 But 80 to 1 on a guy that, you know, is a top 40 player in the world on a course
10:41 that just might fit what he does the best,
10:44 could be a sneaky under the radar move.
10:47 I have a feeling Mike McClure was nodding his head vigorously
10:50 when you said the two words Akshay and Bhatia, Brady Cannon.
10:55 You love [laughter] to hear it.
10:56 I've got a long shot to give out uh later on in the show,
10:59 a couple long shots actually, and some outrights.
11:01 But I do want to remind everybody to join SportsLine and to get all
11:04 the picks from the guys you see on the screen in the entire SportsLine universe.
11:07 All you got to do is go over sportsline.com/join.
11:10 And once you're there, make sure you join the SportsLine Discord.
11:13 That's discord.gg/sportsline.
11:17 Well, like I said, we're not done making picks yet.
11:19 We got to get to our outrights.
11:20 We got to get to our long shots.
11:22 And I'm going to dive into the pool here as well.
11:24 That's all coming up next on the Early Edge.
11:40 We're back on the early edge and it's time to hit
11:42 some outrights and consider some long shots for the PGA Championship.
11:46 And Mike, you've got to do the the honors
11:48 here because you hit the outright yesterday, of course.
11:52 So, let's see what we have in store for Aaron Rodgers.
11:55 Who are your outrights or at least
11:56 the ones you're considering early in the week?
12:00 See, I really just want to roll the tape
12:01 from Brady and I last week talking about Tommy Fleetwood.
12:05 Talked about that number being 30 to 1 last week.
12:07 He looked phenomenal.
12:09 Brady was on here basically talking about I hope he doesn't end up,
12:12 you know, if you're looking to bet him here and not winning the week before.
12:16 He didn't win.
12:17 He finished top five in the Truist.
12:19 I think Tommy is back.
12:20 I think the setup is certainly one that fits his skill set pretty well.
12:25 Talking about the iron play and the approach.
12:28 We know he's kind of a wizard around the green.
12:30 So, I'll be on Tommy and I will also be on Ludwig at 20 to 1 or better.
12:35 I have that number closer to 17 personally.
12:39 I think Ludwig is a little underrated when he's right.
12:42 I know that we all know and recognize the upside that he has.
12:46 But I think it's still gets underrated a bit
12:48 in difficult fields like a major event, major championship.
12:52 I like the number here on Ludwig.
12:53 I think he is going to be right there on Sunday.
12:57 Mike, I feel bad because and Brady, I'm going to go to you next here.
13:00 But I remember the Fleetwood conversation and for some reason Brady,
13:04 I thought you were the one that brought him up.
13:05 I didn't realize both of you brought him up.
13:06 So, I tweeted out like hey Brady, good job.
13:09 I put it in the SportsLine Discord because I
13:11 went ahead and it's not an official play for me,
13:13 but I went ahead when you guys talked about it
13:14 and grabbed that number at 30 to 1 as well.
13:16 Brady, are you also on Fleetwood?
13:18 And if not, who you on?
13:20 Well, I'm not.
13:21 But I I was disappointed a little bit to see him not
13:25 win last week cuz I was on him last week and you know,
13:28 we were playing on the drift.
13:29 You guys mentioned you saw his price go to 30 to one for the PGA.
13:33 It was all the way to 27 or 28 for the truest.
13:36 I thought, wait a minute, you know.
13:38 And and I thought maybe I had nailed it and then couple bogeys on the back
13:41 nine on Sunday and of course Christopher Wright
13:44 Tan was able to get it home for Mike.
13:46 Congratulations there.
13:48 Um but another guy that I was hoping would not
13:50 win yesterday because I'm on him this week is Ricky Fowler.
13:54 Uh this guy's maybe playing the best golf of his career.
13:57 Certainly one of his top five years probably.
14:00 Was second at Pinehurst, another Donald Ross course in 2014.
14:05 He's had very good success on Donald Ross designs and he
14:09 fits that mold for me where he's not necessarily a bomber.
14:13 He's long enough.
14:14 He's very accurate off the tee.
14:16 He is spot on with the irons and the short
14:18 game is absolutely firing once again for Ricky Fowler.
14:21 We know over the course of his career, he's typically been a great putter.
14:25 Hasn't worked year in and year out,
14:27 but it's definitely year in this year for Ricky
14:30 Fowler with the flatstick and and it showed
14:33 up at at Quail Hollow last week and and I
14:35 I love the fact that he finished runner-up.
14:37 To taste the winner's circle like that, but to come up short,
14:41 I think he's pretty live this week.
14:43 It would be It would be pretty great to see Ricky Fowler win this tournament.
14:47 David Bierman, one of the guys I like.
14:49 I like two guys.
14:50 One of them is Matt Fitzpatrick for very obvious reasons.
14:52 He's already won three times in 2026.
14:55 A second place finish as well.
14:56 I mean, obviously last week wasn't great
14:58 for him off the tee and with the putter,
14:59 but I think this is a great course fit for Matt Fitzpatrick.
15:03 But I also like Cameron Young and David you like him as well.
15:07 I do.
15:08 I actually took this at 20 to one once he
15:10 won the once he won the Players Championship back in March.
15:13 I've always been a Cam Young fan.
15:15 I've always been a believer.
15:16 He just need to put it all together.
15:17 Once I saw him do it at the Players,
15:19 I jumped on him and also had him at Doral two weeks ago.
15:22 He's a guy he went down to 16 or 15 to 1, but I still like it.
15:26 He has all the ingredients you're looking for.
15:28 He's second in shots gained total, sixth off the tee, 21st on approach,
15:32 16th around the green, which we've talked about, and second in hitting greens.
15:36 And what I like the most is the fact that he's top
15:38 10 in that range that we talked about, 175 to 200 yards.
15:42 Once he won the Players,
15:44 you knew that he could do this and win big events, but keep in mind,
15:47 he's also finished third at the Arnold seventh in the Genesis
15:50 and T3 at the Masters with that final day battle with Rory.
15:53 So, he's big time at these big time events, and I like him here.
15:57 And be remiss if I didn't say without knowing Mike had him,
16:00 I'm also on Tommy Fleetwood to win this week as well.
16:03 I like his profile here at this event.
16:06 I absolutely love that.
16:07 I think those are all great selections.
16:09 Let's talk about a long shot.
16:10 Let's go down the board a little bit, gentlemen.
16:12 Couple long shots I have in mind, Patrick Reed.
16:14 I mean, it's kind of one of those out of sight, out of mind situations with him.
16:17 His number is 74 to 1.
16:18 I think he's a fine course fit, obviously playing really good golf in 2026.
16:23 It's just a really long number for him,
16:24 a number that I expected to be in that 50 to 60 range.
16:27 And speaking of that range, Patrick Cantlay.
16:30 I mean, talk about a guy over the last 16 rounds,
16:32 which of course is a short sample size, where you know, he's sort of back
16:35 to the Patrick Patrick Cantlay we know and love.
16:37 He's gaining across the bag.
16:39 I think a number in that it's now in that 45 to 1 range,
16:42 but it opened at 60, 55 to 1 in some places.
16:45 I think those are two great long shots,
16:47 either to win or maybe in the finishing position
16:49 market at at a top 10, top 20 price.
16:52 Brady Cannon, long shots.
16:54 Yeah, very much agree with you on both of those guys.
16:57 Everybody looks at Patrick Reed as a Masters guy, so why not here?
17:01 And Cantlay's a guy I've been taking a hard look at for sure.
17:05 I don't know if I'll get there, his putting worries me a little bit,
17:07 but also finished third at Pinehurst at the US Open.
17:11 Again, another Donald Ross course just a couple of years ago.
17:15 This guy is similar to my Akshay Bhatia under the radar
17:19 play I because I worry about him off the tee.
17:22 He can get a little shaky off the tee,
17:24 but if he can find the fairways again from 150 to 100 yards in, he's
17:30 money and that's Sihwan Kim who is trading in the neighborhood of 150 to 1.
17:35 His form has been okay.
17:37 He hasn't He's only missed one cut all season,
17:40 has four top 10 finishes this year.
17:43 We know he can putt lights out.
17:45 He's like top 40 in scrambling on the PGA Tour.
17:48 So, the the short game is really his strength.
17:52 The iron play is solid.
17:53 If he can just reel it in off the tee and find some fairways this week,
17:57 I don't think he's a bad long shot play.
17:59 Maybe, you know, not an outright is he ready to win a major yet,
18:03 but you talk about finish positions.
18:05 I think he could be a guy that nobody's really paying attention to, Seeya.
18:10 Mike McLure on the LIV Tour,
18:12 we're paying attention to Jon Rahm, we're paying attention to Bryson DeChambeau,
18:16 but you mentioned a guy earlier in the show that you
18:18 like as a long shot that honestly just doesn't get any headlines.
18:21 Talk to me about Tyrrell Hatton.
18:24 Yeah, look Hatton here I think that he's just
18:26 a little bit in the sense of a long shot, right?
18:29 I think we know that he probably is a consistent top 25 player
18:34 in an event like this and probably should be in terms of odds,
18:38 but the number kind of drifting here a bit.
18:40 It's starting to move a little bit
18:41 at some of the sharper spots as Brady mentioned,
18:44 but 55 to 1 you can still catch on Hatton right now.
18:48 I think that number should be around 37 to 40 on Hatton.
18:52 So, I like the value that we're getting here.
18:54 Again, another out of sight out of mind LIV player that profiles extremely well.
18:59 Doesn't need the distance, doesn't really have that distance,
19:02 but it's not a problem here.
19:04 He's an elite player with those irons in terms of approach.
19:07 Very good on the putting greens, very good around the greens.
19:11 I think with changing conditions, why I like Hatton is I think again
19:15 the course is going to be very different Thursday
19:17 than it is Saturday and Sunday and what I
19:19 like to call the championship rounds of the tournament.
19:22 As long as he has a fine day on Thursday,
19:24 I think Hatton's going to be on the front page of that leaderboard.
19:27 David, you know who's not having fine Thursdays?
19:30 Adam Scott.
19:32 But I'll tell you what, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday pretty good.
19:35 Talk to me about your long shot.
19:38 Yeah, when we talk about iron players,
19:39 there's no better iron player right now this season
19:42 than Adam Scott and get him at 64 to 1.
19:44 He's in the top five of every approach stat, whether it's total,
19:48 ball striking, greens regulations from 175, from 200, from 150.
19:53 He's at the top every single one of those metrics.
19:56 He led at Doral the field in greens hit and shots gained approach.
20:00 And if he hadn't played the wrong ball on Thursday,
20:02 which I still don't know how that happens,
20:04 he might have given Cam Young a little bit of a scare there.
20:07 And once again, this past week, as you mentioned on Thursday,
20:09 he goes out there and shoots a 76,
20:11 losing an absurd three shots on approach to the field.
20:16 Well, he was top five the rest of the week.
20:17 He bounced back on Friday, had plus three shots gained on approach,
20:21 and then wound up finishing in the top 25.
20:23 Cuz like you said, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
20:26 This is a guy who has a major championship.
20:28 He's been close many times since.
20:30 He's playing as good as he's played in many, many years.
20:32 If he can get over the Thursday hump, you have a live guy at 64 to 1.
20:37 Also want to throw a second one out there.
20:38 I like J.J.
20:39 Spaun at 100 to 1 to kind of stick around.
20:42 Remember, he won a major in Pennsylvania last year,
20:45 albeit Oakmont being much more difficult.
20:48 Similar that it's not the longest course in the world
20:50 and you need good irons and around the green, and he fits the mold for both.
20:54 Not playing exceptionally well since his win earlier this season,
20:58 but if the irons are good, 100 to 1 is a good price on a major champion.
21:02 Yeah, and J.J.
21:02 Spaun starting to turn things around.
21:04 Now, we've got a few more bets and weather implications,
21:07 maybe some DFS to consider, but I do encourage everyone to catch
21:10 the early wedge every Tuesday night at 7:00.
21:13 We'll be delivering our best bets on the SportsLine YouTube channel.
21:17 There again, Tuesdays at 7:00.
21:19 All right, we got to talk some more PGA Championship.
21:22 How about some daily fantasy?
21:24 A lot of people like to get involved in the majors.
21:26 We're going to get involved next on the early edge.
21:43 Let's talk a little daily fantasy sports here on the early edge,
21:46 and we've got the crew to do it for the PGA Championship.
21:49 Mike, I got Mike, I got to start with you because you are very,
21:53 you know, you are in the weeds in DFS.
21:55 Everybody knows that about you.
21:56 We see it sometimes in the SportsLine Discord
21:58 over at SportsLine with your DFS plays and simulations.
22:01 It's interesting this time around because we have a 5K range,
22:05 and it it allows us with so many guys in the 5K
22:08 range and even 6K range that are really good golfers.
22:11 It allows us to kind of do whatever we want,
22:13 right, in terms of lineup construction?
22:16 Yeah, see, look, I think you can absolutely build however you want,
22:20 and I personally like that.
22:22 Um you know, in DFS oftentimes you do get situations
22:26 where the pricing kind of forces your hand where you
22:28 do have to either play a balanced build or play
22:32 more of a quote-unquote stars and scrubs kind of lineup.
22:35 Uh that is not the case here at this major championship.
22:38 With a 5K range, uh you can absolutely build
22:41 uh really any kind of lineup that you want.
22:43 And when that happens,
22:45 I personally tend to lean a little more into balanced builds overall.
22:49 Uh and just the the value of having all of your golfers make the cut
22:53 is going to be significant uh with the number of golfers in the field.
22:57 Again, we are not talking signature event, limited fields.
23:00 We're talking a full full field with a really pretty aggressive cut line.
23:05 So, that changes DFS a lot from what we've seen over
23:08 the last year or so with all the heavy emphasis on signature events.
23:12 This is a very different week in DFS compared to normal.
23:15 David, how are you approaching this week?
23:18 I mean, I agree with Mike that I mean,
23:19 you need all six to make the cut if you want to have
23:21 a chance at winning one of these major championships and winning in DFS.
23:25 So, you really need the high floor players.
23:27 The guys that you're really confident, listen, they may not win the event,
23:31 but they're going to be there on Saturday and Sunday
23:33 cuz if you go in with four out of six, you're not winning anything.
23:36 So, look for guys whether, you know, Brady said he liked Ricky Fowler overall,
23:39 the way Ricky's playing should make the cut.
23:41 You like Adam Scott, guy should make the cut.
23:44 Keegan Bradley who's had success at this course before should make the cut.
23:47 So, you look for guys that will make the cut
23:50 and do well in addition to trying to obviously find your champion.
23:54 And yes, having the $5,000 range will allow you to do and maybe pick a Scotty.
23:58 I have avoided doing that in the past just
24:00 cuz it takes up a chunk of your money,
24:02 but being able to choose what you want to me, you got to find the guys that are
24:06 the high floor guys that even on an average day,
24:09 you're like, all right, they're going to hit that cut line.
24:11 You get as many people to the weekend as possible
24:13 and then you let the chips fall where they may.
24:15 Brady, two-part question.
24:17 I do want your strategy going into the PGA Championship,
24:19 but also are there any players in particular that you have your eyes on?
24:24 Well, I'll tell you there's three players that I
24:27 will be staying away from if I was playing DFS.
24:30 Guys, our friends at BetMGM,
24:32 I got the notification this morning the three most popular
24:36 players as far as ticket count and handle are Scotty Scheffler,
24:41 Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick.
24:43 No surprise, the big three at the top
24:45 of the board at BetMGM so far early in the week.
24:49 And we know as part of a DFS strategy,
24:52 you don't necessarily want to be in the majority.
24:54 So, I would probably looking to avoid those guys, Se-A.
24:57 As hard as it is to do, and I know a couple of you guys are I mean,
25:01 I think all three of those names have
25:02 been mentioned as far as outright winners this week,
25:05 but just purely from a DFS strategy, I think I'd be leaving them off my card.
25:11 Mike, let me ask you about that cuz
25:13 those are three big names for obvious reasons.
25:15 And it does sometimes come down to lineup construction, but of those three guys,
25:20 and I want you to consider pricing and lineup construction as well,
25:23 which do you think you'd be more likely to fade?
25:25 Scotty at the top or somebody like Cam or Fitz?
25:29 Uh I will be more likely to fade Cam at this point personally.
25:33 Just in that price range, there's a number of guys that I like.
25:37 Scotty's a different price range, right?
25:39 So your lineup construction is totally
25:41 different if you're playing Scotty versus Cam.
25:44 As far as Fitzpatrick, I'm going to have to get a little bit better
25:47 ownership data in terms of projection on that right now.
25:51 General thought though, I think that a lot of times people do get a little
25:56 too caught up in the individual projected ownership number of a single golfer.
26:02 And what matters more in this right now is
26:05 going to be the overall combination of your lineup.
26:08 And you can still build a lineup
26:10 with relatively chalky players and still be quite
26:13 unique depending on some of the leverage
26:16 plays and decisions you make in that lineup.
26:19 So talking about Fitzpatrick being in the same range as like Xander Schauffele,
26:23 Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa,
26:24 you're essentially going to get paid off three to one,
26:27 four to one by taking essentially anyone other than Fitz at that spot.
26:32 David, we got about 30 seconds left to cover some DFS.
26:35 Any names that come to mind that you really want to jam into your lineups?
26:39 Yeah, I'm going to be putting Adam Scott in there like I said earlier.
26:42 I'll be having Tommy Fleetwood at one of the guys at the top of the card.
26:45 And and I agree with Brady in terms of trying to not take those guys.
26:49 I'm not sure I've had Scottie Scheffler in any of the events
26:52 and he looks stupid because he finishes runner-up every single week.
26:55 But, for the chunk of 13, 14,000, it's very tough cuz then you're really,
26:59 as Mike said, you're you're pigeonholing yourself into a certain lineup.
27:03 I like the balanced structure.
27:04 I'm probably going to have a whole bunch of 7,400,
27:07 $7,500 guys to go with a 9,500 to $10,000 range cuz you
27:11 want a couple of good guys that are going to finish top 10,
27:14 and a couple of guys, like I said, you got to have them make the cut.
27:17 So, looking at Adam Scott's, Fleetwood, I'll have J.T.
27:20 Poston in there as well,
27:21 and guys who play this course well, like Keegan Bradley.
27:24 Well, I like the balanced approach, too,
27:26 because I think a lot of people will just
27:28 have a typical lineup construction that starts with Scotty
27:30 at the top and a 5K guy like
27:32 a Matt McCarthy or Retief Goosen or something like that.
27:35 If you can avoid those obvious and common lineup constructions,
27:38 your lineup will already be different, and it might allow you to play some
27:40 of those chalky guys that we talked about again,
27:43 as long as your lineup construction is different.
27:45 All right, well, we got to we got to close shop there,
27:47 at least for now, on the PGA