Preseason Top 25 Rankings - Josh Pate's College Football Show

0:00 Spring is over.

0:01 I did a pre-pring top 25.

0:03 It sounds only right that we do a postspring top 25.

0:06 We had some injuries.

0:07 We learned some things.

0:09 Then we got plenty more questions thrown in our face.

0:12 So the commissioner's poll is not a power rating.

0:14 That's the JP poll.

0:15 We do it way more towards the season.

0:17 The commissioner poll is just straight up rankings.

0:20 If I were an AP voter, this is how I would vote these teams right now.

0:24 Uh given time over the summer, things could change, but probably not.

0:28 So, I wanted to go 25 to one as I see

0:31 the country exiting spring and I'll go from 25 to one

0:36 and I'm going to start with the fact that I will

0:38 never leave Louisville and Jeff Braum out of a top 25.

0:40 So, Louisville and Jeff Braum sitting there

0:42 at 25 Lincoln Kinholtz and Jeff Braum.

0:45 That's really what I'm banking on there.

0:47 Quarterback, if you believe in in Jesse's words,

0:49 if you believe the scuttlebutt from a couple of years ago,

0:52 he took Julian Seyan to the wire.

0:54 He was fighting tooth and nail for that quarterback job at Ohio State.

0:58 So, Jeff Braum, QB Whisperer, noted QB Whisperer, Jeff Braum has him there.

1:02 I have got Washington at 24.

1:06 Uh, some roster churn is bad.

1:08 I think the churn for the roster up there

1:10 has ended up in a net positive situation for Washington.

1:14 Jed Fish in year three.

1:15 Demon Williams tried to escape, couldn't, and now he's going to make the most

1:18 of Washington and sort of a second life type situation.

1:22 Hey, whatever.

1:23 I believe in him enough to have him preseason top 25.

1:26 I got Missouri at 23.

1:28 And this is where we call on friend of the program,

1:31 Eli Drinkwitz, to just prove me right.

1:34 He got Austin Simmons a year ago.

1:36 Austin Simmons was good enough for Lane Keifin

1:39 to name him his starter at Old Miss.

1:40 We remember how that season went.

1:42 He is now transferred to Missouri.

1:44 Having him up there and having Ahmad Hardy

1:46 up there means you could have explicity offensively.

1:49 They have had a fair amount of attrition though,

1:52 so that's where you're kind of walking a tight rope here with Missouri.

1:56 I feel properly slotted in the 20 to 25 range, but maybe with a little bit more

2:02 variance in potential outcome this year than normal.

2:05 Speaking of variance in outcome, there's virtually none at 22.

2:09 Iowa just stays parked here.

2:11 I wrote down it's Iowa.

2:13 That's all I had to write down.

2:15 It's Iowa.

2:16 They're they're not they're not ever going

2:18 to bottom out until something drastic happens offensively there.

2:22 They're never going to peak at anywhere higher

2:25 than having a ceiling in the teens range,

2:29 but as has been noted on this show recently,

2:33 that's not the worst thing in the world.

2:34 The worst thing in the world would be to be

2:36 in that position and then try and reinvent yourself.

2:39 And you know what?

2:40 You end up being Wisconsin.

2:42 So 22 for Iowa.

2:44 Good starting point.

2:45 Florida at 21 is an offensive coordinator quarterback bet a little bit here.

2:51 Buster Faulner and I think Aaron Pho is going to win

2:53 the job down there and I don't expect Heisman contention there.

2:56 What I do expect is good solid QB play on an otherwise really underrated roster.

3:01 They are nasty at wide receiver.

3:03 Have the potential to be one of the best wide receiver rooms in the country.

3:06 It's a really good running back situation.

3:09 Just the overall talent roster that Summerall is inheriting there.

3:11 It's really good.

3:12 Now they had good talent and couldn't get it done under Billy Napier.

3:15 So this is also kind of a bet on John Summerall

3:18 to walk in with an abnormally high floor for a firstear inherited situation.

3:25 Top 20, number 20, Southern Methodist

3:29 University right there in beautiful Dallas, Texas.

3:33 That's a top 25 returning production roster.

3:36 Kevin Jennings is there.

3:37 Rhett Lashley's there.

3:38 They're just a really good team.

3:39 I mean, I if anything, I may be a little low on them at 20,

3:43 but I had to make room for Utah at 19.

3:46 Now, we've got coaching transition there.

3:49 Again, sometimes that's bad.

3:51 And it's really one of two ways you can look at this.

3:55 You could say, "Boy, Utah lost Kyle Whittingham.

3:58 He left him for Michigan." But that's not what happened.

4:01 Utah got coaching transition by choice.

4:05 And so, look, Michigan thought Kyle Whittingham was

4:08 plenty good enough to be the head coach there,

4:09 but that's beside the point as it relates to Utah.

4:12 Utah's in the position that they want to be in.

4:15 Well, at least from a coaching perspective.

4:17 Last year, they were number two in the country rushing.

4:21 They were 82nd in the country passing.

4:23 And so, I've got to I've got to think and I've

4:26 got to kind of bank on Devin Dampier growth this year.

4:30 I've got to bank on a little bit more balanced offensive approach this year.

4:35 Lost some big-time offensive line pieces to the draft,

4:38 but I trust Utah to at least be in that 15

4:41 to 20 range of serviceable there to start the season.

4:45 I'm putting Houston at 18.

4:47 Jesse, do you think the AP will have Houston ranked?

4:49 I don't think they will either.

4:50 So, we're higher on Houston going into the season, I think,

4:53 than our friends down the road at the AP will be, but there are reasons.

4:58 So, Willie Fritz has got a really good foundation here.

5:00 Also, side note, Willie Fritz is real good.

5:03 Period.

5:03 Top 20 returning production that has a top 10 portal class baked into it.

5:09 And this is not a projection of what your record's going to be.

5:12 But if you did want to take the added step of thinking about

5:14 what they're capable of, which we're going to do later in this very show,

5:18 big Houston show tonight,

5:20 I will also remind you they don't have the um I don't know,

5:26 most arduous murderers row of a schedule this year,

5:29 but this is not a strength of schedule thing.

5:31 We just think Houston's going to be a pretty good team.

5:33 Penn State's at 17.

5:35 You'll notice if you're a Penn State fan that that is

5:38 a couple of notches lower than we had them going into spring.

5:41 Well, what what could have happened in spring?

5:43 Well, we may have heard some things about some

5:45 other teams that bumped them ahead of Penn State.

5:47 Or half the team may have been hurt in spring,

5:50 which leaves me with questions as it relates

5:53 to how you would fare entering the season right now.

5:56 Again, this is not predicting what you'll be in December.

5:59 It's where I'd slot you right now.

6:01 And I'd put Penn State in the 17 range because of so many spring injuries.

6:05 Now, eventually those guys will return.

6:08 We're not talking about a bunch of true freshmen who were out.

6:10 So, it's experienced guys.

6:12 We're not asking a quarterback to learn a new system.

6:14 We're just asking him to acclimate to a new campus basically because Rockco Beck

6:18 looks to his left and right and he recognizes a lot of the people,

6:22 both players and staff there.

6:24 Again, this is not a strength of schedule thing.

6:25 I'm not taking that into account at all.

6:27 But the same thing can be said about number 17 there,

6:30 Penn State, as could be said about Houston at 18.

6:34 And that is if we're right and this is the quality

6:37 of team that either one of them are going to be,

6:40 either one of them could win 10 plus

6:41 games because that's how the schedule shakes out.

6:44 Now, I had a lot of trouble at 16.

6:46 This is where I'm putting Texas Tech.

6:48 So, I'm going to assume no Brendan Sorsby until someone tells me otherwise.

6:52 Until Jeffrey Kesler and associates tell me otherwise,

6:56 I'm going to put Texas Tech at 16.

6:59 It It may be too low.

7:01 Will Hammond plug him in and they may still have the best team in the Big 12?

7:07 That's an eventually thing.

7:10 In the immediate future, I can't help but slot them down at 16.

7:15 It's a number two portal class in the country,

7:17 so they're not going to be hurting for talent.

7:19 It's not that.

7:20 It's just understand now Brennan Sorsby is the real deal.

7:24 There's a reason why plan A is somehow someway beat the NCAA

7:29 legally and wind up back on the field for Texas Tech,

7:32 but plan B is supplemental draft because he would warrant

7:36 what would be the equivalent of first round QB consideration.

7:39 It's a really, really good player.

7:41 Significant upgrade, all due respect, to what they had last year.

7:45 So, if we're losing him, I've talked to a lot of Texas Tech folks about,

7:49 all right, what's the best case scenario with him and without him?

7:52 It's a world's difference.

7:54 Now, that may only be the difference in maybe one game in the regular season.

7:59 The difference as it relates to your playoff hopes is like a Grand Canyon to me.

8:03 So, I'll put Texas Tech at 16 and I'll put

8:06 Michigan at 15 as we get into the top 15.

8:09 They're kind of a tough team to slot.

8:10 Michigan's one of those teams if you're if you're banking on potential,

8:14 if you're banking on roster talent, which is a lot of what we go

8:17 on in the spring because no football games have happened yet,

8:20 then it's tough to knock Michigan way lower than this.

8:24 Then come the questions with the new staff in uh this is

8:29 this is not one of those instances of bad staff churn.

8:32 This is good staff churn.

8:34 This is going to be a a pretty significant

8:36 net upgrade over what the situation was last year.

8:39 Now, what does that mean for Bryce Underwood?

8:42 What does that mean for his production?

8:44 And then I could say that, you know, downstream for the rest of the roster.

8:47 But I feel okay having Michigan at 15.

8:50 If you had him at 12th or 20th, I wouldn't probably argue either way.

8:54 May argue a little bit more against 12 than 20, but I've got them there.

8:59 I put Brigham Young at 14.

9:01 Like, I think a lot of folks probably are going to sleep on Brigham Young.

9:03 Young a little bit.

9:04 everyone's just going to kind of throw this this blanket feeling

9:08 that the Big 12 is Texas Tech's with or without Brendan Sorsby.

9:11 Well, I don't automatically feel that way.

9:14 I do feel it if they have him.

9:16 I don't automatically feel that.

9:17 And it ain't even because I think Texas Tech's going to suck.

9:20 It's just because Brigham Young's a really good team

9:22 and they got a lot of returning production off

9:25 of a group from last year that has been

9:28 told you didn't really win anything cuz they didn't.

9:30 They ran up against Texas Tech twice.

9:33 They lost to him twice and that's it.

9:35 Just no one remembers anything.

9:37 Well, here's what I remember.

9:39 Otherwise, that was a really good team that won a lot of games.

9:43 Those are dependable players.

9:44 That's a head coach that had a shot at the Penn State job and turned it down.

9:48 And that's a place that's extremely hungry.

9:50 And because they don't have a ton of newness all over the place,

9:54 I expect them to enter the season playing at a pretty high level.

9:58 So, I put Brigham Young in the top 15.

10:00 I put him at number 14.

10:01 I put Alabama at number 13.

10:04 Quarterback's going to be talked about a whole lot.

10:06 It should be talked about a whole lot.

10:07 Like I said the other day,

10:08 I expect quarterback to end up being a strength of this team.

10:12 I don't know that I can say that for offensive line.

10:15 I don't know that I can say that for the ground game.

10:18 What I do know is I expect them to be

10:21 upgraded at least in terms of running the ball.

10:25 Uh only because it can't get worse.

10:27 So I'm not really saying a whole lot there.

10:28 It's how much do they upgrade?

10:30 Do they go from the 100s to like 81st or do they do what Georgia

10:35 did two years ago and go from the hundreds back up into the top 30?

10:39 Those are two different worlds because I don't know which is which.

10:43 That's why I've got him down at 13.

10:44 Uh I will say this though, the defensive personnel along the defensive front

10:50 is really upgraded in terms of size.

10:52 Said that when I watched him scrimmage a few weeks ago and you're starting

10:55 to hear a lot more people talk about that as spring is wrapped up.

10:59 That's a real thing.

11:00 They made some moves and got some guys

11:02 that can really really help against the run,

11:04 which is where they probably were a little looser

11:07 than they wanted to be at times last year.

11:08 I got LSU at 12.

11:10 LSU needs a real big asterisk next to their name

11:14 to remind everyone this is a postspring top 25.

11:18 In other words, this is kind of how

11:20 I would think the season would start right now.

11:23 LSU's ceiling is that of a Final Four team,

11:28 but there are a ton of injury concerns, not the least of which was quarterback.

11:32 So, they couldn't really practice fully the way they wanted to.

11:34 In spring, you had injuries at corner and you just got a whole bunch of newness.

11:39 So, it's your starting point, which is what I'm trying to figure out right now,

11:44 and then your ending point being two different stories.

11:46 If I'm doing a playoff projection or maybe just an end of the season projection,

11:51 I may have LSU a lot different than number 12,

11:53 but I got them at number 12 right now because

11:54 that's where I feel like they would enter the season.

11:56 I got Southern Cal at number 11.

11:59 This has got to be the year for USC.

12:02 And I think for the first time under Lincoln Riley,

12:05 I do agree with him when he says,

12:07 "Hey, we're entering a window here." Should it have taken that long?

12:10 Of course not.

12:10 But nevertheless, we're entering a window here.

12:13 There is more to like about this USC team entering

12:16 a season than I think any team Lincoln has had there.

12:19 I feel like at the line of scrimmage,

12:21 we can finally look at them as at least a break even team in the Big 10.

12:26 Now, I'm speaking cautiously here because I

12:28 understand the weight of what I'm saying.

12:30 A Lincoln Riley team being at a break even position

12:34 on the line of scrimmage in the Big 10 is no small sentence.

12:37 So, we're going to find out if we're right about that.

12:40 But outside of that, they I think should expect to win some big games this year,

12:45 and I think they should expect to be a playoff team this year.

12:48 I expect them to be in the hunt for a playoff spot.

12:51 So, I got them at number 11.

12:52 Lincoln Riley has never let me down with any prediction my entire life, Jesse.

12:56 Quick 5-second timeout.

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13:01 All right, back to the show.

13:03 We move on.

13:04 Number 10, Texas A&M.

13:06 I've got questions, but I don't automatically

13:10 assume my questions equal weaknesses.&M's is one

13:13 of those teams that because they recruit and portal

13:15 inside the top 10 every year on average, they can enter a season with questions,

13:20 meaning we lost some guys to the draft or graduation or transferring.

13:24 There's a guy or guys in their places that are questions.

13:28 You've never heard of them.

13:29 Well, sometimes that equals weakness in college football.

13:33 That's not necessarily the case there.

13:35 It's just what will end up being a bunch

13:37 of really good players that you don't know.

13:39 And I think it'll be a lot of that for&m this year.

13:41 Now, what we do have to ask ourselves and what I'm trying

13:45 to figure out is what's the floor for Marcel Reed this year?

13:48 His ceiling notwithstanding.

13:50 I don't really even so much care about his ceiling.

13:52 I want to know what's the worst it could be.

13:55 Are there any like crash and burn moments this year or is it a lot more steady?

13:59 because I could go without the spikes in production, frankly,

14:02 if I don't have the massive dips every now and then.

14:05 That's what I would love to see.

14:06 They're really strong at the skill spots.

14:08 I think the offensive line, while everyone looks at replacing four or five,

14:14 needs to also be understood that they got a really good depth situation there.

14:19 So, I don't think it's nearly as drastic or dire as people

14:21 who don't know that team are going to make it out to be.

14:24 I put Oklahoma at nine.

14:26 I get a healthy John Matier,

14:28 the rightful 2025 Heisman Trophy winner who was robbed.

14:32 Yes, robbed.

14:33 You're Well, Jesse, when he got hurt, who led the overall Heismanods?

14:38 Jonathan Germetrius Matier led the Heismanods and I was holding the ticket.

14:42 I should know.

14:43 So, the rightful 2025 Heisman Trophy winner is back and healthy.

14:49 The ground game again will improve this year.

14:51 How do I know that?

14:52 Cuz it can't get worse.

14:54 I said the same thing about Alabama that I'd say about Oklahoma.

14:57 And so, uh, offensive line, I need some upgrade there.

15:00 I need some upgrade in the ground game.

15:02 Defense is going to be really good.

15:04 It's a really good team.

15:05 They're in a good position.

15:06 I'll tell you, the one that's being overlooked

15:08 that I put at number eight is Old Miss.

15:11 People are badly overlooking Old Miss.

15:13 People looked at Old Miss and said, "Oh,

15:15 Trinidad Shamblas, his status is up in the air.

15:18 We're going to put him in the 15 to 20 range." I did that.

15:22 But I also said if Chamblas is eligible,

15:25 this is a a bonafide slam dunk top 10 team.

15:29 And then Trinidad Chamblas was ruled eligible.

15:32 Miss is a top 10 team.

15:34 It's not a one-man show over here.

15:36 Kiwan Lacy is still there.

15:37 Uh people were thinking this defense is going to fall off a cliff.

15:40 It's not.

15:41 Miss is a really, really dangerous team.

15:44 Really good team.

15:46 This is a team that's a play or two away from going to the national

15:49 title last year and a team with a breakout star at quarterback in the playoffs.

15:54 And I don't know if America has awoken to the fact that that guy's playing

15:58 again this year or maybe they have but they don't know how to value it properly.

16:03 So I'm really high on miss right now.

16:05 If you expect them to fall off, even if you do,

16:08 you may want to delay that expectation at least a year.

16:11 Sounds a little disrespectful.

16:14 Maybe they won't fall off.

16:15 I'm just saying I don't think the fall-off's coming this year.

16:17 I have a hard time forecasting falloff

16:20 with that guy playing quarterback for you.

16:24 Georgia at number seven.

16:26 All right.

16:27 Excellent overall team.

16:28 This is where you start to get into that range of teams where just the overall

16:32 structure of organization and roster makes it

16:34 such that their floor is is top 10.

16:38 Georgia has been that for a long time.

16:40 Only questions there would be, you know, pass rush,

16:44 lost one of those guys in the spring.

16:46 Wide receiver at its top end, is it dynamic enough?

16:50 What kind of progression do we get from Gunner Stockton?

16:53 But all in all, I mean, Georgia, I don't have to vouch for them.

16:56 They vouch for themselves with their play on the field every year.

16:58 I'm putting Indiana at six, which is probably their floor right now,

17:04 although they don't have as long a track record as some of these other schools.

17:08 But then again, when you, you know,

17:10 blowtorrch your way to a national championship doing it your way,

17:13 I'm kind of going to trust your way.

17:14 So, do they lose a lot?

17:16 Yeah.

17:16 Do they have a lot also?

17:18 Yeah.

17:19 Their ceiling is number one.

17:21 The only reason I'm putting them at number six is this is a preseason thing.

17:25 And I I got to find out for myself what the Indiana Josh Hoover consists of.

17:32 I found out who Fernando Mendoza was at Indiana.

17:35 I need to find out what Josh Hoover is at Indiana.

17:38 I I just want to make sure that these wide receiver back fills pan out.

17:43 But all in all, the defensive replacements, if those pan out, I mean,

17:48 if you're anywhere remotely close to what they were able to do last year,

17:52 then yeah, they're probably even low at six.

17:55 Top five, Miami is my number five team right now.

17:59 I expect them to be an equal or better version of last

18:02 year's team mainly because I think they are upgraded at quarterback,

18:05 especially relative to the system that they run down there.

18:09 Love Darien Mensah being able to work under Shannon Dawson.

18:13 Love the receiver room.

18:14 Love the tailbacks.

18:15 Love the eventual potential of the offensive line even

18:18 if it takes a little while to round into form.

18:22 Truthfully, that's the only reason I got Miami as low

18:25 as five because this is a really, really loaded team.

18:28 really loaded.

18:29 People can pay attention to what they lost all you want to.

18:32 I would pay much more attention to what they still have.

18:35 Ohio State at number four, same thing.

18:38 I basically look at them every year as being a floor top five team.

18:44 Draft attrition for the second year in a row.

18:46 Yes, I just blindly trust them.

18:50 I blindly trust Ryan Day and having

18:52 a pair of NFL coordinators under him right now.

18:56 So, the staff's loaded, the roster's loaded.

18:59 Are they capable of starting hot?

19:02 And unlike some years,

19:03 you kind of need to because they play a really tough schedule this year.

19:07 Oregon at number three.

19:09 Love the quarterback wide receiver combos here.

19:12 We got Evan Stewart back.

19:14 Dory and Moore is still up there.

19:15 And you can go down the list, man.

19:17 Like even if I were to take those two away,

19:20 the guys under them will probably be mentioned

19:23 a whole lot less because they play at Oregon.

19:25 Those would be standout players at some of these other places.

19:28 But also the defensive line depth there is the envy of the rest of the country.

19:34 And I also think that Oregon kind of as a as a program,

19:37 they've sort of built to this year.

19:39 That doesn't mean that they were incapable of winning before,

19:42 but it's like you put yourself in range

19:45 of playoff and title contention every year,

19:48 but some years you'll be closer than other years.

19:50 Like Ohio State in 2024, that was their year.

19:54 They're still going to be close enough every other year.

19:56 Texas, this is their year.

19:58 Well, Oregon, this is one of those years.

20:00 Speaking of Texas, got them at number two.

20:03 This is the year.

20:04 This is the year they have the best chance of it happening.

20:07 They crushed the portal.

20:09 With that in mind, Cam Coleman at Texas is going to be insane.

20:13 Ryan Wingo should also be insane.

20:16 Don't forget with all the talk about the offense there,

20:20 they brought in Will Muschamp at defensive coordinator.

20:24 Now, the working theory is when you go up against the Georgees of the world,

20:28 there aren't many, and you're second best physically,

20:33 you got to find a way to inject a little

20:35 more of what they have into what you do.

20:38 And I don't think it's any accident that they

20:40 targeted some of the staff additions that they did.

20:43 And so, Texas elsewhere is they're just loaded.

20:46 It's a loaded roster.

20:48 But yet I didn't put him at number one because I remain convinced

20:53 that Notre Dame needs to be my number one team to start the year.

20:57 They've got everything I want to from a roster perspective.

21:00 They've got CJ car at quarterback.

21:01 I don't care what Dimrock says about him driving stuff in a ditch.

21:04 He's not going to during the season.

21:05 That's not going to happen.

21:06 Mike Dimrock does not know his quarterback like I do.

21:09 So he'll be fine.

21:10 He'll be fine.

21:11 Defense will be fine.

21:12 In fact, they'll be loaded.

21:13 There's an urgency there because of what happened last year.

21:17 So, I don't expect them to ease into the season.

21:20 I actually expect them to annihilate people.

21:22 You know, they play rice early, Jesse, fried rice early this year.

21:27 And for all the talk about them losing a couple of first round running backs,

21:31 and there should be talk about that, I still

21:33 expect that position to be very good for them.

21:35 So, that as of this moment is my postspring preseason top 25.

21:42 Subject to change.

21:44 It is after all early May.