Vance or Rubio? GOP eyeing both options for 2028 candidate

0:01 Let's bring in staff writer for The Atlantic

0:02 and MSW a political analyst, Ashley Parker.

0:05 Ashley, Vance has a 48% disapproval rating in that new poll.

0:10 Why do you think some Republicans are souring on Vance?

0:16 Vance was never particularly popular,

0:20 even when he was Donald Trump's vice presidential running mate.

0:25 I was told in my reporting around

0:26 that time that basically almost immediately after Vance━or Trump,

0:32 rather━chose Vance as his number two that he regretted the decision.

0:38 Vance was not sort of as skilled on the campaign trail at retail politics,

0:44 as Trump had been hoping for.

0:46 Although it's worth noting that Vance had an incredibly good vice

0:50 presidential debate that sort of earned him back into Trump's good graces.

0:55 So we're starting at a point where Vance has never been Trump.

0:59 He's always sort of been a lesser Trump.

1:02 And then, to be fair to Vance as vice president,

1:05 it's a tough role and you often end up

1:08 with sort sort of the detritus of the president.

1:11 So when Trump is not doing well and his approval

1:15 numbers are not high and they're not right now,

1:18 it is sort of that for this president's number two, but on steroids.

1:23 As this MAGA landscape stands right now,

1:27 who appears to be the stronger candidate?

1:30 VP Vance or Secretary Rubio, who again at one point was nothing like Trump,

1:37 but has suddenly warmed up to Trump and his inner circle?

1:41 Well, it's a complicated question because Vance is the vice president right now,

1:46 and that makes him the presumptive nominee if

1:49 Trump chooses to throw his support behind him.

1:52 And frankly, whoever Trump chooses to throw

1:55 his support behind will be the presumptive nominee.

1:58 But in focus groups that I've had the privilege of listening to, a lot

2:03 of up-for-grabs voters━these are voters who voted

2:05 for Biden and then Trump━don't particularly like Vance.

2:11 There's something about him they just find off putting.

2:14 And of course, they also blame him the way they blame

2:17 President Trump for the policies that━that they don't like, for high prices.

2:21 He sort of owns all of that along with the president.

2:24 And they do talk incredibly positively about Marco Rubio.

2:28 And you also see this among Republican operatives and the donor class.

2:32 And one thing someone pointed out to me that seems sort of funny and trivial,

2:36 but I think might have some truth to it is,

2:38 you know, that meme of Marco Rubio sitting on the couch in the Oval Office,

2:42 where he just keeps on taking on new jobs.

2:45 Right.

2:46 He's leading Venezuela and he is having to single

2:48 handedly run the war with Iran and, you know,

2:52 taking over Cinco de Mayo Day, if someone falls down on the job.

2:55 This has led to this perception that Marco Rubio

2:59 is highly competent and can kind of do anything.

3:02 And Trump really likes him.

3:04 A lot of people in Trump's orbit really like him.

3:06 But again, Rubio has said publicly that if Vance runs, he will not.

3:10 So as long as that remains the case, Vance,

3:13 I guess, has the edge on Rubio in practical terms,

3:16 but not in terms of who voters and operatives

3:19 in the donor class and the politerati are most excited about.

3:22 Former Trump administration official Matthew Bartlett writes for MS Now,

3:27 when Trump chose Vance as his running mate, he was distinctly MAGA,

3:32 a gift from the base to the base

3:34 and the next standard bearer of the president's new coalition.

3:37 But while he may now be better known, his core political identity is not.

3:42 In 2016, he questioned if Trump could be America's Hitler.

3:46 And then in 2022, he had a road to Damascus political conversion to MAGA.

3:51 As a political journeyman, no one truly knows what he believes or what

3:57 beliefs he genuinely holds absent Trump telling him.

4:00 Ashley, how important is it for Vance to define what he's really about?

4:06 And what does that look like right now?

4:09 Well, again, you're right that there's many iterations of Vance.

4:13 There's Hillbilly Elegy Vance.

4:15 There's law school Vance.

4:17 There's Vance, who was very opposed to President Trump.

4:21 I will say his MAGA conversion feels pretty complete at this point,

4:26 but that's not to say he couldn't do another

4:28 total 180 if he believes that will serve him.

4:31 But the problem is, for better or worse,

4:34 he owns the Trump-Vance administration and their record.

4:39 And you see some tension between them on the war in Iran.

4:43 Vance is truly ideologically opposed to foreign interventions.

4:47 He gets this, he comes to it earnestly and honestly by his time in the military.

4:52 But at the same time,

4:53 he's not speaking out publicly against this administration, his concerns.

4:58 He's voicing in a fairly diplomatic way privately.

5:01 But he understands that he owns the results of that war.

5:05 And so, that's a tough spot to be in for a vice president,

5:08 because you either own the downside and you can't really say,

5:11 well, I was privately opposed to that.

5:14 That will, A, make Trump upset, and he needs Trump's support to succeed him.

5:19 And that also makes him look fairly ineffective.

5:21 Well, you were arguing privately against this, and yet,

5:25 ineffectually, it had no result.

5:26 We still went to war with Iran.

5:28 Gas prices still skyrocketed.

5:30 So that's a challenge for him, and that's one of the ways he will

5:33 have to position himself and define himself going forward.

5:36 Just quickly, if you will, some have described MAGA as a cult of personality.

5:41 What's Rubio's appeal to MAGA?

5:44 That we don't know yet, right?

5:47 I mean, I'm old enough to remember 2016 where not only was Rubio not MAGA,

5:52 he was very forcefully anti-Trump.

5:56 And he was sort of the great charismatic hope of establishment Republicans,

6:01 or as Trump would say, rhino Republicans.

6:03 Now, Marco Rubio has served Trump loyally in this term.

6:07 And by all accounts, Trump is very pleased with him.

6:10 But we'll have to see how much Rubio can make that link with the president,

6:16 make that MAGA a connection,

6:19 although people do find him very personally likable and charismatic

6:23 in a way that they do not for Vance.

6:27 Ashley Parker, thank you for your insight.