Can Labour win over voters — with or without Keir Starmer? | Global News Podcast

0:00 Welcome to the global news podcast from the BBC.

0:02 I'm Valerie Sanderson and I'm joined

0:04 by our UK political correspondent Rob Watson.

0:07 And Rob, we've heard from the British Prime Minister Kier Starmer

0:12 making an address to the country fighting for his political life.

0:16 Has he done enough?

0:18 Well, he certainly is fighting for his political life.

0:20 I I would say that the reaction so far from Labor MPs,

0:24 and that's the most important constituency because they're the ones who,

0:27 you know, who either keep him or or get rid of him, are sort of underwhelmed.

0:32 But I think what he may well have succeeded in doing is

0:35 at least avoiding a challenge in the next few hours or or days.

0:39 But I think what his speech won't change is

0:43 the sort of fundamental view inside the the Labour Party.

0:46 And you could take a view on whether this is fair or not.

0:48 That his position is unreoverable.

0:51 That he is just too unpopular in the party,

0:54 too unpopular in the country to come back from this.

0:57 And that therefore he is a prime minister on borrowed

1:01 time and and a speech was never going to, you know,

1:04 under undermine or or change that sort

1:07 of fundamental basic problem that he faces.

1:10 Because we should say things are pretty dire, aren't they,

1:13 for the Labor Party regarding the results

1:16 of the elections that have just been held.

1:20 Absolutely.

1:20 Perhaps the best way to think of it is percentages.

1:22 They won this loveless landslide,

1:24 the general election in 2024 on just under 35% of the vote.

1:31 Well, last Thursday in elections across England and in Scotland and Wales,

1:36 they were averaging about 17%.

1:40 Um, I mean, that is a massive massive fall.

1:43 And even that 35% they got at the general election

1:46 was was sort of low by the standards of winning parties.

1:49 So, yes, Labor is in deep, deep trouble.

1:52 Not just the prime minister, but the party as a whole.

1:55 And if you think about it,

1:56 to be the governing party and you've only managed to get 17% of the voters,

2:02 uh, that's not good.

2:03 So, what are their options going forward?

2:06 Is the key one to change the person at the top?

2:09 Well, there are some in the party who think that.

2:10 I mean, essentially,

2:11 most people inside the Labor Party understand they've got a problem.

2:15 They divide it up into two.

2:17 So, some think in the first camp, they think, well,

2:19 we don't probably need to change that much about policy,

2:21 but it's about our leader.

2:23 that Kier Sarmmer is one of those politicians and you know it's happened all all

2:27 over the world Valerie in history in every

2:29 country one of those politicians where people

2:31 just stop listening to him they don't they

2:33 don't like him they don't relate to him

2:35 and so you need to to change a leader now the second school of thought

2:39 is that it's it's not just enough about the leader that you need a change

2:42 in policy and and and I and I would say that there are a majority

2:46 of those in the Labour party would probably like it to be more leftwing to have

2:50 more uh government spending to have more government

2:53 borrowing to have higher taxes on the wealthy.

2:55 But but I just inject this briefly and I think some in Labor are fully aware

2:59 of this that you know even if they got

3:01 a leader who was more popular you know whoever it is

3:05 would have a very difficult inheritance and would probably

3:08 struggle and that's because you know Britain is forecast

3:11 to have very low growth for pretty much

3:13 the rest of this decade and that is hugely important.

3:16 Uh secondly, it it already has high

3:18 levels of government tax spending and borrowing.

3:22 So there's not that much maneuver in economic policy.

3:24 And then thirdly, it's just this what

3:26 you might call the sort of societal grievances.

3:29 Britain is an unhappy country

3:31 with people disagreeing over things like multiculturalism,

3:35 diversity, immigration, how we all get on.

3:38 So change the leader, maybe change policy, but my goodness,

3:41 whoever would be in the hot seat has got a mountain to climb.

3:45 Valerie and there is this rise of newer parties

3:50 to the left and right of the political spectrum.

3:52 Why is reform and the Greens why are they doing so well?

3:56 I think a couple of main reasons.

3:58 So the first one is that they are the beneficiaries

4:00 of people just being so angry with the status quo.

4:04 Valerie, and I'm going to give you a a a polling a polling

4:07 figure that really leapt out at me just before these local elections,

4:11 and it was from a company called Ipsos,

4:13 and it suggested that 67% of people think

4:17 the country is heading in the wrong direction.

4:19 I mean, that makes Britain a pretty unhappy and angry country,

4:22 and you feel that out on the doorstep.

4:24 So, the Greens and reform have benefited

4:27 from this idea that the status quo isn't working.

4:30 And that's really a reference back to the last 20 years when things have really

4:35 been struggling in Britain in terms of making

4:37 your making ends meet since the financial crisis.

4:40 The second element is that I think the reform

4:42 and the Greens have been quick to identify

4:45 and you know whether this is a good thing or a bad thing people watching will

4:48 have to to decide that instead of a politics based on sort of left right uh

4:54 economics class uh they're having a politics which

4:57 is much more based on identity and and values.

5:00 So if you like reform is championing the idea that you know

5:04 Britain has had too much immigration we should be prouder of our past.

5:07 we should stop apologizing for empire.

5:11 And and then those more on the sort of progressive

5:13 green side who are very keen to be anti-American,

5:17 anti-Israel, to be sort of anti- capitalist,

5:20 anti- anti- the rich and focusing on social justice and thinking

5:24 that diversity and immigration is by and large a thoroughly good thing.

5:28 So I think the Greens and Reform were able to to latch on to this idea

5:33 of politics based on values and identity

5:36 much quicker than the the two main parties.

5:39 And Britain isn't unique in this, is it?

5:41 These are challenges being faced in countries around the world.

5:44 Yeah.

5:44 The reason why it's so interesting, this is this is not an isolated phenomenon.

5:48 It's happened in all of what you might call the advanced

5:51 developed democracies where they're having a debate about their economic models.

5:56 They're having debates about their social models.

5:58 They're worried about things like income inequality and absolutely,

6:03 you know, worried about things like immigration and social cohesion.

6:07 So, absolutely Britain is is not some kind of outlier.

6:10 Uh this is happening in countries all over Europe,

6:13 particularly countries over Europe where you have multithnic,

6:17 multinational populations.

6:19 I mean Britain is a absolutely I think

6:21 you would describe it as a a post-racial country

6:25 almost a sort of post postnational country but I

6:28 I guess in Britain as in so many

6:30 other countries you know everybody is trying to figure

6:32 out still how to make this work and you

6:35 might say that we're in one of those angry

6:38 phases of of that process at the moment.

6:41 So Rob, the next general election is in 2029.

6:44 So some would argue that there is still time

6:48 for the governing Labor Party to turn things round.

6:52 Uh they'd like to think so,

6:53 but I mean all of the polling evidence and the anecdotal evidence

6:57 so far suggests that they're going to be really really up against it.

7:01 The voters are very angry.

7:03 Uh they seem to have stopped listening to to the two main parties.

7:06 So the Conservatives are are similarly struggling.

7:10 I mean, just about the only thing that they've got going for them,

7:13 Labor and and the Conservatives,

7:15 is that all this sort of polling that I often talk about

7:17 and the sort of deeper research and focus group suggests that the voters,

7:21 they don't actually have very much faith in the alternatives.

7:25 They're not going to reform and green saying, "Aha, yes, brilliant.

7:28 This is going to solve all of our problems." Not at all.

7:31 They're just taking the view that there's nothing to lose.

7:33 But to get back to the root of your question,

7:36 I mean the real problem facing uh the government, facing the Labour parties,

7:40 the party in power is is really just

7:42 that I don't know the the statistics really and particularly

7:45 this idea that Britain is not forecast to grow

7:48 very much uh for the rest of this decade.

7:51 And you without economic growth it's really difficult to sort out

7:55 things like improving public services uh

7:58 lessening inequality and basically the government

8:01 having the sort of revenues to to do all the things

8:03 to spend money on all the things uh that people like.

8:06 So it's I think that is in way its biggest obstacle just

8:10 that lack of growth and again that is not unique to Britain.

8:14 an awful lot of countries in in Europe in particular,

8:17 much less so the United States, but in Europe are facing that.

8:20 And you know, without growth, it's growth, if you think about it,

8:23 that has driven so much of what has happened

8:26 in in European countries like Britain over the last 100 years,

8:29 you could always say, "Aha, things will be better for my kids.

8:32 Things will be better for my grandkids.

8:34 They'll have a home.

8:35 They will have more opportunities.

8:36 They'll have better chance for better education than I had." And there is

8:40 that sense in Britain and in other countries that that that dream is gone.

8:44 The idea that the next generation will be better than than you are.

8:48 And that is such a massive problem for established parties.

8:53 Rob, you've covered politics for can I say decades.

8:56 I mean, do you think this really is a fork in the road?

9:00 It it feels like that.

9:01 I I I mean, it does feel as though there's been

9:04 a fragmentation in British politics like I I have never seen.

9:08 And I'm just going to throw another figure out there.

9:10 It's one that I particularly like.

9:12 So in in 1951, even before my time, Valerie,

9:16 when the Conservatives were led by Winston Churchill and the Labour

9:20 Party was led by a man called Clement Atley,

9:22 when they fought the election in 1951, between them,

9:25 the two parties got 97% of all the votes cast.

9:30 Well, last week in the local elections, Conservative and Labor struggled to get,

9:36 you know, 35% of all the votes put together.

9:40 So, I I think that tells you we are in a very different world.

9:45 And I think any hope that the main parties

9:47 have of things somehow returning to the good old days.

9:50 I mean, it just seems unlikely because of these of these forces

9:54 that are that are driving people to alternatives.

9:58 That, you know, that sort of sense that the the state doesn't work.

10:01 Public services aren't much good.

10:03 You're struggling to get a job.

10:04 You're struggling to make ends meet.

10:06 And this other notion which is also

10:08 incredibly popular among social scientists at the moment,

10:11 not just in this country and others, but that voters lack agency.

10:15 And what they mean by that is you don't have much control over your life.

10:18 You feel as though stuff happens to you.

10:20 You're not in control economically.

10:22 You look out at the world.

10:23 You look at the Middle East and you're you're scared and you feel powerless.

10:27 And I think all of those things, you know,

10:30 are driving voters to to more sort of radical fringes,

10:33 more popular fringes and away from the tried and tested.

10:37 Now, you know, we have some smart politicians in this country and elsewhere.

10:41 You know, they can see what the problem is.

10:43 You know, maybe they'll figure out a way to crack it.

10:45 Maybe they'll figure out a way to bring

10:47 people back together again and to build broad coalitions.

10:50 But it it sort of feels to me we're we're

10:53 at a we're at a moment in in British political history and just

10:55 in British British life more generally where where the Brits who

10:59 are by and large a pretty reasonable and easygoing bunch of people,

11:03 you know, who apologize and wave when they're when

11:05 they're in their cars are just at a really angry, bitter, and sour mood.

11:11 And and that's just the way things are.

11:13 Thanks, Rob.

11:14 That was Rob Watson, our political correspondent.

11:17 If you'd like to hear more, you can listen to the Global News podcast.

11:21 Just click on the link below.

11:23 But that's it from us for now.

11:25 Thanks for watching and thanks for listening.