The REAL Reason The Iran War Leads To World War 3

0:00 So let me explain to you why ground troops has to be sent.

0:04 Okay.

0:03 All right.

0:03 Okay.

0:05 So in phase one of this war which started February 28th which

0:10 lasted for about 6 weeks the intention was to decapitate the regime.

0:15 And you do that by striking tan and you do

0:19 that by striking the military bases in installations throughout Iran.

0:24 It's it's what the Americans call sharp and all.

0:27 And the point is to force the Iranians to call uncle.

0:31 But that's not what happened.

0:33 To give up to give up basically because what the Iranians did

0:36 was they responded by attacking US bases throughout the GCC.

0:44 They closed off a straight of Humus and they rallied their people.

0:53 Okay.

0:54 So rather than surrender, the Iranians basically double down.

0:58 Okay, that's phase two of the war.

1:01 Now we've gone to phase three of the war

1:03 where Trump has basically decided that decapation does not work.

1:09 And so what Trump's going to do is he's

1:12 going to impose a naval blockade on Iran's naval blockade.

1:18 Right?

1:20 And so the question then is if Trump understands

1:24 that decapitation does not work then using game theory.

1:28 What's game theory?

1:29 Game theory is the belief that all

1:34 the world is governed by rules and incentives.

1:38 And once you understand the rules and incentives,

1:41 you can predict how people behave because people

1:45 will always behave according to their best interest.

1:50 So in geopolitics, the nation states are individual

1:54 players and each nation state is trying to use

1:59 its resources and um its advantages in order

2:04 to pressure other nation states to obey it.

2:08 Okay, so Trump recognizes that the Iranians have closed off the circle of moves,

2:14 but not only that, but the Iranians have also

2:17 used the circle of moves to finance the war,

2:20 meaning that now they're forcing ships to pay

2:23 a toll of $2 million in order to cross it.

2:27 And so this is a huge advantage for the Iranians.

2:30 And so Trump has said, "No, I'm going to blockade your blockade,

2:35 negating Iran's advantage over the certical moves." So

2:39 we think about it again using game theory.

2:41 I want to discuss what the Americans will do

2:44 in order to force uh the Iranians to capitulate.

2:49 Okay.

2:49 So I would say there's a three point strategy.

2:53 The first strategy is economic strangulation.

2:58 you basically destroy the state's capacity to finance the war.

3:02 And there are two ways that Iran is financing the war so far.

3:06 The first is using oil exports, right?

3:09 90% of Iran's oil goes to China and um this is Car Island.

3:18 Okay, this this little spot here is Car Island.

3:20 And this is where Iran will export 90% of its oil overseas.

3:25 That's the first mechanism.

3:27 Second mechanis mechanism is a who moves

3:30 where the RA now can collect tolls right.

3:34 So what you have to do is you

3:36 have to eliminate both of these finance mechanisms.

3:41 You can close off both with the name of locket.

3:44 Okay.

3:44 So that's strategy one.

3:46 strategy two is you need to create as much chaos within Iran as possible.

3:58 You want to turn this fortress into a prison.

4:01 And the way you do that is by stirring up ethnic tensions in the country.

4:07 So if you look at a map, ethnic map of Iran,

4:12 what you'll discover is that the Persian people are

4:17 primarily in this area in the middle of the country.

4:20 But if you go to the borderlands,

4:22 okay, the border areas, it's primarily ethnic minorities.

4:27 And there are two ethnic minorities in the country

4:31 that have always been problematic for the government.

4:34 The first problematic people are of color bullocks here

4:40 uh in south east uh Iran by the Pakistani border.

4:48 They have a history of insurgency against the government.

4:52 Okay.

4:53 Second people that have been problematic are the Kurds

4:56 who are primarily in the uh northwest of the country.

5:04 So if you are the US government, if you are the military,

5:08 your strategy is to establish foreign operating bases in these areas.

5:16 A foreign operating base is uh a spearhead of the military

5:22 where you insert ground troops to hold an area.

5:25 Okay.

5:26 So in order to resupply in in order to push further into the territory.

5:31 Okay.

5:31 So a forward operating base would be

5:33 the US putting troops into the the northwest

5:37 and the southeast and then using that as a way to move forward into Iran.

5:44 No, you don't want to move forward into Iran because it's too large.

5:48 You don't have enough forces to move into Iran.

5:51 What you want to do is this.

5:53 You want to establish port operating bases in these areas

5:56 in order to arm and train ethnic insurgents.

6:04 Okay,

6:02 that you can also finance as well.

6:06 And you do this because you want to turn them into cannon fodder.

6:10 You for you have to force a response from the Iranian military, right?

6:14 So if they come in with the army in order to quell these rebellions,

6:21 that's great because now you can use

6:23 your air power to decimate the Iranian military.

6:26 Your problem right now is Iranian military is hiding inside mountains.

6:32 And so you want to force them out in the open.

6:34 And so you want to create as many points of tension

6:37 in the country as possible to force the Iranian military to respond.

6:42 Right?

6:43 Does that make sense?

6:44 Okay.

6:45 And now your third strategy is to strangle the capital Tran because that's

6:53 the that's where the political elite are a city of 10 million people.

6:58 And the way you strangle Tran is you deny them three things.

7:02 You deny them water, electricity, and food.

7:09 So you attack power plants.

7:11 you attack reservoirs, you attack railways that bring um food into the capital.

7:20 And when you do that, these n these 10 million people in Iran

7:24 will now oppose the government and demand

7:27 a political settlement because they need food,

7:31 uh water, electricity to survive, right?

7:34 Is there a government?

7:36 Right now, there's a debate as to the true extent of leadership in Iran.

7:43 Because Trump's recent interviews, he's saying he's he's claiming

7:47 that the the leadership in Iran are fighting themselves,

7:49 but then he's also saying in other interviews

7:51 that there's they don't even know who they're dealing with.

7:54 Exactly.

7:55 Iran has a very unusual political system in that um it's a theocracy.

8:01 It's a religious government.

8:02 It's run by clerics call them moolas.

8:04 in theory and then there's a parallel system the state

8:09 apparatus that actually takes care of day-to-day bureaucracy and that's secular.

8:15 Uh the mas control the morality

8:17 of the country they also control foreign affairs.

8:20 So basically um this is important

8:22 because Iran has two parallel military structures.

8:27 You have the military but you also have the IRGC.

8:33 The IRGC are only loyal to the mullas which is the religious part.

8:39 Exactly.

8:39 All right.

8:40 So you have this divide in the in the country

8:43 where the IRGC see this as a religious

8:47 war as a crusade to kill the great Satan and they want to fight to the death

8:51 and the great Satan is

8:52 the great Satan is the American Empire.

8:56 Okay.

8:55 Uh which is a source of the misery

8:57 that I has been suffering for the past few decades.

9:01 And they already see not only do they see America as great Satan,

9:06 but they also see this as a global

9:08 conflict because they have proxies that support their beliefs,

9:12 including here in Lebanon, Hezbollah, including here in Yemen,

9:18 the Huies, and of course in Palestine, Hamas.

9:21 Okay.

9:22 and and before Syria was also part of their axis of resistance

9:27 but Syria has been toppled by the Americans and and Israelis.

9:31 So the IRGC see this as a religious crusade that is global in nature.

9:36 The political leadership in Tran sees it completely different.

9:40 They see this as a conflict primarily between America and Iran

9:45 and they want to reach a political settlement as soon as possible.

9:48 And so in other words, these ceasefire negotiations,

9:53 it's really all for show because at the end of the day,

9:58 even if the Americans gave the Iranians everything they wanted,

10:01 the RTC still controls um the battlefield and they

10:07 would not um surrender or or seek peace terms lightly.

10:13 Another problem in this situation is

10:15 the RTC practice something called the Mosiaak strategy.

10:18 Mosiaak.

10:21 The idea of the Moak strategy is okay you know

10:25 the Americans the most effective military ever in human history.

10:29 You know that they practice shock and all decapitation.

10:32 So how do you respond to that?

10:33 You respond to that using decentralization.

10:37 31 provinces in the country with their own

10:41 command and control that is localized.

10:43 So basically they have 31 different armies that have their own leadership.

10:47 That's correct.

10:48 Okay.

10:48 And when you do this it's a fight to the finish.

10:50 Why did they do that?

10:52 They did it because the Americans possess

10:55 the most sophisticated surveillance technology in the world.

10:58 meaning they can easily identify the leadership and they

11:04 can easily track you down and kill you.

11:06 So the only way around that is to decentralize the leadership

11:10 and spread around the country so that the Americans cannot kill the everyone.

11:15 How does the central government orchestrate 31 different armies in Iran?

11:19 How does it get a message out to them?

11:21 I heard Peter Hexf make a a comment in one of the interviews saying

11:24 that it takes some time for the pigeons to get out to the armies.

11:30 And what he was saying basically is that um when

11:32 the ceasefire was called and there was still some um missiles flying,

11:36 he was basically saying that's just because it takes

11:37 a long time to tell the 31 different armies to stop.

11:40 The reality is that given a MOS strategy,

11:43 there's actually no way to coordinate these 31 different military operations.

11:51 Because the MOSA strategy was meant to was meant to fight to the bird of ant.

11:57 You do not stop until you completely control the Middle East and the Americans

12:02 have been forced out of the Middle East and Israel has been humbled.

12:09 Okay,

12:09 so let's go into the specifics of what the Mosak strategy is.

12:12 The idea is that they have an esquetology.

12:17 Okay.

12:17 So, esquetology is an understanding of how the world

12:21 should be and how we move towards this world.

12:27 And for the Iranians, their esquetology is that Iran in order to reach its

12:34 true potential needs to be master of the Muslim world.

12:39 It needs to displace Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia is

12:43 too aligned with the United States which is the great Satan.

12:47 Mecca and Medina are under the influence of the great

12:50 Satan because why are there US military bases in Saudi Arabia?

12:58 So this war from their perspective,

13:01 it's a great opportunity to overthrow the corrupt leadership of Saudi Arabia,

13:05 but not only Saudi Arabia, but the entire GCC.

13:08 Overthrow the corrupt governments of the entire Muslim

13:11 world and install governments that put God Allah first.

13:20 So they're they're not going to quit Iran.

13:23 This war once it starts can only lead to World War II.

13:29 That's a strong statement to make.

13:31 As a probability, okay, what probability would you assign to that claim?

13:35 I would put it pretty high.

13:37 Anywhere between 80 to 90% probability.

13:40 So that's certainty.

13:42 Basically certainty.

13:42 Yes.

13:43 Explain to me how that happens.

13:45 Okay.

13:45 So we need to step back and appreciate

13:49 um that there's a global dynamic going on.

13:54 Okay?

13:54 And we need to appreciate the grand strategy of the different players involved.

14:00 Right?

14:00 So what what I'm going to do is this.

14:03 I'm going to explain to you how each nation sees itself in the world.

14:13 Okay?

14:13 And to do that, I'm going to use a chess set.

14:16 Okay.

14:18 Okay.

14:17 All right.

14:17 This is the king.

14:19 This is the political system of the United States, which is democracy.

14:24 And there are certain strengths and weaknesses to a democracy.

14:28 Democracy is vibrant.

14:30 It's creative.

14:31 It's flexible.

14:32 But its ultimate weakness is polarization where today

14:38 um the different political factions refuse to get along.

14:41 And this may break out the civil war.

14:42 Okay.

14:44 Mhm.

14:43 So, the way you defeat the United States is not to conquer it.

14:48 You can never call the United States.

14:49 The way to defeat the United States is to force it into a civil war,

14:54 which then kills the king to get its people to rise up against the leadership.

14:59 No, you want the Democrats and the Republicans

15:01 to form different factions and fight a civil war.

15:05 Okay?

15:05 You you want to create so much political polarization

15:07 the different elite factions take up arms against each other.

15:10 Okay?

15:11 So, this is the political system.

15:12 Okay, the democracy.

15:15 Now, let's look at the queen.

15:16 What is the queen?

15:17 The queen is what I refer to as the grand strategy of the United States.

15:23 How the United States can maintain its control over the entire world.

15:27 And the grand strategy, it's already outlined in the national defense strategy,

15:31 right?

15:31 Let's create Fortress America and then create chaos throughout the entire

15:36 world so that we can sell everyone weapons and resources.

15:41 Okay, that's a grand strategy.

15:42 All right.

15:43 All right.

15:44 Now, once you have a grand strategy,

15:46 you need you need to implement this grand strategy.

15:48 So, you need attack vectors.

15:50 All right.

15:50 The attack vectors are the rook, the bishop, and the knight.

15:56 All right.

15:56 So, let's go over the three major attack vectors of the United States.

16:00 They are first of all, America's technological supremacy.

16:05 So, these are the basically the tools that they use to attack others.

16:08 Exactly.

16:08 In order to achieve their grand strategy, right?

16:10 All right.

16:10 So, aeros supremacy, right?

16:12 Which is the planes and the stuff like that.

16:15 Then you have the US dollar, right?

16:20 Because the US dollar allows you to finance

16:24 everything and everyone wants the um uh US dollar.

16:28 Okay.

16:30 Mhm.

16:29 So, that is the second attack vector.

16:32 The third attack vector is propaganda.

16:34 mean United States controls the world's

16:37 most powerful media including New York Times,

16:39 CNN and as such they can control the narrative of the world.

16:43 Okay, so these are the three major attack vectors.

16:46 Now they use the pawns.

16:49 The pawns are weapons that they can

16:52 sacrifice in order to achieve the grand strategy.

16:55 And in the case of United States, the pawn are the allies.

17:02 meaning I had to say this but the UK um Europe, South Korea and Japan.

17:15 Okay.

17:15 And also the entire Western Hemisphere.

17:20 This is the the Americans.

17:23 Okay.

17:23 The people who are most opposed

17:26 to this grand strategy of Americans are the Russians.

17:29 So let's go over the the Russian system.

17:32 In the Russian system, the king, the political system is an autocracy.

17:38 And an autocracy, it's good because it allows for coronation.

17:42 It allows for decisiveness.

17:44 It allows for um resolve, long-term thinking.

17:49 Exactly.

17:49 Right.

17:50 That's Putin.

17:51 What's bad is if this guy dies, there's a secession crisis, right?

17:59 So basically once you topple the autocrat, then the system itself breaks down.

18:06 Okay?

18:06 So that's the Russian system, right?

18:09 For the Russians, a great strategy is something called the third Rome strategy.

18:14 The third Rome strategy.

18:15 Yes.

18:15 Okay.

18:16 So the people in Russia believe that they are the true

18:20 successors to the Roman Empire and previously there are two Romes.

18:24 It was the first Rome then it moved to Kalanapole

18:29 and Moscow is destined to the to be the third Rome.

18:32 And what makes Moscow interesting is that it wants

18:37 to unite the entire Christian world under its leadership.

18:44 Um the main philosopher for the third Rome strategy is Aernard Dugan who in 1997

18:49 wrote a wrote a book called foundation of geopolitics and what he said was this.

18:52 What he said that if Russia is to defeat the Americans it needs

18:56 to build alliances throughout Eurasia in order

18:59 to negate American sea power and aerosy.

19:03 All right.

19:04 So what are the attack vectors for Russia?

19:09 Okay.

19:10 The first attack that door, the size of the country makes it almost invincible.

19:15 So think about World War II, Operation Bar Rosa.

19:17 The Germans went into Russia with 67 million men and it didn't get very far.

19:23 Okay, so the terrain is very important.

19:26 The geography is very important.

19:28 Then you have the Orthodox religion which

19:31 is meant to galvanize believers into supporting Russia.

19:38 The third attack vector is artillery.

19:41 So Russia has the best land army in the world and we we're seeing that play out

19:46 in Ukraine where um a combination of Russian

19:50 artillery and drones it's devastating Ukrainian military in Ukraine.

19:54 The pause for Russia are are its soldiers.

19:59 So Russia is able to sustain many many casualties in its military.

20:07 If you actually go and interview Russian soldiers,

20:11 they are probably the bravest soldiers in the world.

20:13 They are literally not afraid to die for what they believe in.

20:17 Okay.

20:17 So, this is the um Russian third Rome strategy.

20:21 You can see how it conflicts with the Americans.

20:25 Mhm.

20:25 Okay.

20:26 Now, we go to the Israelis.

20:28 Jerusalem, the capital, it's a mixed system,

20:32 meaning it's both democracy as well as a theocracy.

20:36 And it's good in that the Israelis are very creative.

20:41 But the fundamental weakness is the division within

20:44 the society where Tel Aviv and Jerusalem don't get along.

20:48 Okay.

20:49 So that is the belief system of Israel.

20:53 The grand strategy of Israel is called the greater Israel project.

20:58 So the Israelis believe that the entire Middle East belongs to them

21:02 from the Nile to the Euphrates because that's what it says in the Bible.

21:07 This is what God Yahweh promised Abraham.

21:11 So their intention is to conquer the entire Middle East including Egypt,

21:17 Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, even parts of Turkey.

21:22 Okay.

21:24 Now let's look at the attack vectors for the the the the um Israelis.

21:30 The first attack vector is Mossad.

21:35 Mossad is the most powerful intelligence agency in the world

21:40 in that it is able to infiltrate and undermine different political systems.

21:47 And for anyone that doesn't know is their secret service basically.

21:50 Yes.

21:51 Their spy system.

21:52 Second attack vector for the Israelis is the Jewish diaspora

21:59 because the Jews do business everywhere around the world and Jewish

22:03 businessmen work very closely with Mossad and as such they

22:09 have influence in a lot of places that they shouldn't have.

22:13 And the um third um attack vector is the Bible.

22:19 Why?

22:20 Because if you're a Christian,

22:21 and there are many Christians who believe this, you

22:23 believe that the Jews are God's chosen people.

22:27 So if you look at what's happening in uh the Middle East,

22:31 um all this conflict between Israel and Palestine,

22:34 a lot of this conflict is being supported politically

22:38 in the United States by a group of people called Christian Zionists.

22:42 And these are Christians.

22:43 They're not Jews.

22:43 Christians who believe that Israel should treat

22:48 achieve the greater Israel project because this is

22:51 part of God's plan and the pawns for the Israelis are basically everyone else.

22:58 Okay.

23:01 So, a lot of the hardware underpinning the global

23:05 IT infrastructure um is being controlled by the Israelis.

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