The future of work: navigating the AI shift | On Second Thought

0:00 We're not in the business of predictions,

0:01 but there was a time when you used to write on resumes,

0:04 proficient in Microsoft Word, proficient in email.

0:08 When do you think we're going to reach the era where

0:10 you don't even include proficient in AI because it's an expectation?

0:14 I think we're already at that point today.

0:16 You know, I think we're at that point today.

0:18 I think there is still a lot of fear, of course, around AI and jobs.

0:22 But what I will say is,

0:23 I think there's much greater recognition today that AI may not take your job,

0:28 but someone who's really skilled in AI might.

0:34 I spend a lot of time researching the future of work,

0:37 and AI is changing this landscape fast.

0:40 And with that change, naturally comes a lot of uncertainty.

0:43 How should I expect my job to evolve?

0:45 What skills should I be building?

0:47 So today I'm chatting with Colette Stallbaumer

0:50 who leads the future of work at Microsoft,

0:52 and I want to get clarity on some of these questions.

0:54 How might the org chart evolve?

0:57 What can I expect my role to look like in the coming years?

1:00 And what should I wake up and do tomorrow as a result of what I'm learning?

1:13 Colette so the future of work this is one of my favorite areas to research,

1:17 so I've been really looking forward to this conversation.

1:19 I want to start by asking how AI is actually being used in the workforce today.

1:24 What change are employees already seeing?

1:27 Yeah, that's a great question Sinead.

1:29 So, you know, we published something called the Work Trend Index as you know.

1:33 The data shows that there's been a pretty big change this year.

1:36 Last year, employees were kind of experimenting with AI

1:41 and leaders were actually kind of lagging a little bit,

1:43 and now we see a big flip in that.

1:45 One thing that we see is this dynamic of what we talk about in my team

1:50 and describe as more keep moving from the org chart to the work chart, okay.

1:54 Because AI democratizes expertise,

1:56 it opens up all these opportunities for people

1:59 to actually work in what we call the Hollywood model.

2:02 So, you know, when you make a blockbuster film, right,

2:04 a group of people come together from all

2:06 different disciplines to work on a Hollywood film,

2:08 and then when that film is over, they disperse,

2:11 and they go on to the next project that's happening at work with AI.

2:15 Teams are fluid, more agile.

2:17 They can come together because AI democratizes expertise,

2:22 they can come together on a project and then disband and go on to the next one.

2:27 So this idea that work is getting much more fluid and agile.

2:31 We see that people who have domain expertise in one area,

2:35 take marketing, you know, you can use AI in adjacent areas like PR.

2:39 And so now I can be an expert in many, many more things.

2:49 If we're to narrow down on the future of the org chart right now,

2:53 we view org charts as this static framework,

2:56 and an employee basically slots into a defined role.

2:59 In the future, that chart is probably going

3:01 to collapse or be something that continues to evolve.

3:04 Right.

3:04 It's kind of getting imploded, right?

3:06 Like, you know, really that's why I think one of the most

3:10 important mindsets for employees today is

3:12 to basically be a lifelong learner, right?

3:15 And have this mindset that the most important thing you

3:18 can be doing is skilling yourself up on AI, right?

3:22 How are you using AI in your daily flow of work?

3:25 How are you delegating to AI?

3:27 How are you taking parts of your job and outsourcing those tasks to AI?

3:32 I totally agree, and I think it's such a fascinating time

3:35 that an employee and the CEO are in the same learning paradigm right now.

3:40 Everybody is starting from scratch and trying to figure this out,

3:44 so nobody is actually behind.

3:45 Everybody is trying to figure it out.

3:47 That's exactly right.

3:48 It levels the playing field.

3:49 It totally levels the playing field.

3:50 So now is the time to really dive in.

3:52 But leadership does play a really big role right.

3:53 There are some employees that feel empowered.

3:56 They're given the training, they're given the tools.

3:58 There are other employees who hear nothing from leadership about it.

4:01 And then there's a third camp that feel, is my job safe?

4:04 I don't even really know where I stand.

4:06 Where we talk about AI at the company, but nobody tells me where I stand.

4:10 So how do you think leaders should be approaching this?

4:13 It can't be an afterthought.

4:14 The skilling piece for individuals, super important,

4:17 but really it takes leadership at the top right to say, hey, this is a mandate.

4:22 It's a business imperative.

4:24 We need to have a shift here.

4:25 Because really, you're either going to disrupt

4:28 yourself or be disrupted in this environment.

4:31 And so doesn't this also mean I mean, there's the technical change,

4:35 and so employers are gonna have to learn different skills.

4:36 But then there's also the cultural one,

4:38 because when we talk about the future of the org chart,

4:40 that also means not only does somebody in marketing need to know how to use AI,

4:44 but that HR is going to have to grapple

4:46 with their departments going to look very different as well,

4:49 because how they think about talent

4:50 coming into these defined roles and functions, that also has to evolve.

4:55 It does.

4:56 You know, I think we're just thinking about hiring completely differently.

4:59 You know, maybe in the past you needed to have ten years

5:02 of experience in a specific area to kind of, come in with that.

5:07 And now I think people are looking for, hunger,

5:11 and being really super tech curious, right?

5:15 How many different AI tools have you listed on your LinkedIn profile?

5:18 All right, that you actually know how to use?

5:21 Can you demonstrate that aptitude for learning?

5:24 And that's the that is the skill today.

5:27 And so this would speak then directly to new grads

5:29 or younger people into the work that are stepping into the workforce,

5:32 that we're actually moving into an era where

5:34 it's not going to be defined by experience,

5:36 but by your ability to learn skills in real time.

5:40 So doesn't this mean we could also see young people

5:43 leapfrog over people with experience if they're learning more quickly,

5:46 if they're diving into these AI tools?

5:48 I'm a mother of two teenagers, and I tell my kids all the time,

5:52 right, like school is obviously really important.

5:55 Don't shortchange education.

5:56 But also, how are you experimenting and learning with these new tools?

6:01 Like the world is sort of their oyster in terms of the opportunity,

6:05 because if you're a young person today,

6:07 you can start the next multi-million dollar business, right?

6:11 Just you and your friends.

6:12 So it's a pretty exciting time.

6:15 So then is the future of work much more about skill.

6:18 So we need to maybe move away from defining our identities with a job title,

6:23 and it's much more about what skills do

6:24 you have and what is your propensity to learn?

6:26 I absolutely believe that's true.

6:34 So what is the vision for the future of work?

6:38 So knowing where AI agents are, AI systems in general, where they're going.

6:42 So 5, 10 years, are we co-creating with these AI systems?

6:46 Are they tools or are they teammates?

6:48 Yeah, I love that question.

6:50 I think it's a little of both.

6:52 But let me just start with saying that I think what's really important

6:57 for everyone to know is you just have to start using these tools at work.

7:00 If you're not using them daily

7:02 and you're not actually building that daily habit,

7:04 you're never going to get to be what we call an agent boss.

7:07 So let me tell you about an agent boss and what that is.

7:09 So take Alex on my team.

7:11 Alex is a data analyst, and Alex has, at any given time,

7:16 three agents he's created that he's outsourced different parts of his job to.

7:20 So one agent is scanning the web for new

7:23 research that might be interesting to us and our team.

7:26 Another agent is analyzing the data and pulling out insights.

7:30 And then a third agent is writing up the reports and the recaps.

7:34 I believe that every company has Alexes right,

7:37 there are Alexes is in every organization.

7:39 You just have to find them and kind of tap into those people

7:43 who are the early adopters because they will light the path for others.

7:47 And is that the future of work for all of us,

7:50 where we all become Alex and we're directing teams of AI agents.

7:53 So right now you basically direct a computer to do things,

7:56 and in the future you're going to direct a computer that can talk back.

7:59 That's exactly right.

8:00 That's exactly right.

8:01 Very interesting.

8:02 So does that mean we also all have to have leadership skills

8:05 and communication skills because we're going to be in a leadership role,

8:09 even if they're AI systems we're going to be directing systems.

8:11 And the better instructions you can give to them

8:14 and decisions you can make with their answers, the better equipped you are?

8:16 You know, you kind of need to think about your job

8:19 now is like you are the CEO of your of your role.

8:22 Right?

8:23 And so how are you- or outsourcing parts of it to AI,

8:26 it's building that habit to actually stop and think,

8:29 do I need to do this, or can I delegate it to Copilot?

8:32 And it's also really building that muscle to work with AI,

8:36 work with Copilot like a thought partner and a collaborator.

8:39 Right.

8:39 So we move from the doing to the directing in a way.

8:43 Exactly, exactly.

8:44 And then so what about cognitive atrophy and outsourcing thinking?

8:48 Because that's a real concern.

8:50 So even as a boss, how do you evaluate

8:53 whether employees are delegating the thinking or the directing?

8:58 This is why I think we talk about the human part of this being so important,

9:02 and the human in the loop, you know,

9:03 at the end of the day, copilot or any AI, it's a tool, right?

9:08 And we have more amazing tools at our fingertips today than we've ever had.

9:13 But if you think about, you know,

9:15 the typewriter or the internet, right, these things are tools.

9:18 The human piece of that is so important.

9:21 Copilot is not creative on its own.

9:24 It needs it needs me.

9:25 It needs a person to tell it what to do, to direct it.

9:28 And so I do think at the same time,

9:30 like skills that we're looking for, talking about hiring,

9:32 critical thinking, you know, judgment becomes really important.

9:36 Communication, right?

9:38 To your point, you have to be able to articulate your goal

9:41 and what it is you're looking for and give good instruction.

9:45 And when do you think.

9:46 and this can be a long shot, and it's totally going to be a prediction.

9:48 I know we're not in the business of predictions,

9:51 but there was a time when you used to write on resumes,

9:54 proficient in Microsoft Word, proficient in email.

9:57 When do you think we're going to reach

9:58 that era where you don't even include proficient in AI,

10:02 because it's an expectation?

10:04 I think we're already at that point today.

10:06 You know, I think we're at that point today.

10:07 I think there is still a lot of fear, of course, around AI and jobs.

10:11 But what I will say is I think there's much

10:14 greater recognition today that AI may not take your job,

10:17 but someone who's really skilled in AI might.

10:21 And so it's really just not a time to sit on the sidelines, right?

10:24 Like I tell every team member, employee and my own kids,

10:28 now is the time to lean in and learn and really get comfortable.

10:32 Experiment with these tools.

10:34 You know, another piece of this is about

10:36 raising your hand for the messy work, right?

10:39 The uncharted territory.

10:41 Because no organization has really figured out, right,

10:44 how to totally make the most of AI and these tools.

10:48 We're in a we're in a transformational phase.

10:51 And so now is the time, you know,

10:53 at any level, raise your hand for that project where,

10:56 you're trying to figure out how do I use AI to to make this better.

11:01 And when you hear about AI and work,

11:03 the reality is there is a lot of tension and uncertainty because job

11:08 loss can accompany that conversation and it

11:11 is a realistic part of transformation.

11:13 So how should people who are fearful of this moment

11:17 be thinking about AI with respect to their job,

11:19 their career, and what comes next?

11:26 Well, here's the thing.

11:27 I think you kind of have to take a long view, right?

11:29 I mean, as with other, technology inflection points,

11:32 whether it was the internet or things prior to that, you know,

11:36 in the long run, technology creates and we

11:39 believe creates more jobs than it actually eliminates.

11:42 But in the short term, that's scary, right?

11:44 And so again, I think some of the things that each individual

11:48 can do is just lean into learning these tools and getting skilled up.

11:54 Right.

11:54 And I think it's also, some of it comes down to leadership,

11:58 because if a company is only thinking about

12:00 AI from the perspective of who can I automate?

12:03 Not what new opportunities can I go after on the top line?

12:07 Like that's a growth opportunity.

12:09 So I think that it's also it's from the leadership too,

12:12 how are they thinking about this technology?

12:13 I mean, the most forward thinking customers that we talked to and I

12:17 talk to every day are not thinking about it like that.

12:19 Right?

12:20 They're really thinking about the opportunity upside,

12:23 not just to amplify every single individual and what they can

12:27 do and their ambition and 10X-ing themselves at work, if you will.

12:32 But also, what's the opportunity, you know, for the company and the business.

12:37 What about skills?

12:38 So if somebody was to apply to a job at Microsoft today,

12:42 what are the non-negotiable skills for the future of work?

12:45 I think the non-negotiables are really back to this learning piece, right?

12:49 In addition to things like, you know, you need to be agile, right?

12:53 You need to be adaptable.

12:54 The world's moving really fast.

12:57 Are you someone who can who can go with that, right?

13:00 Who can, who has an appetite to learn and doesn't

13:04 think about your job as being in a box, right?

13:07 So critical thinking, judgment, adaptability, being very tech forward, right?

13:14 Very tech curious.

13:15 I want to talk to people who are coming in and saying

13:18 that they they know how to use these skills already.

13:20 They know how to build an agent.

13:22 You know, those are, I think, highly marketable skills today.

13:26 Right, I think the learning piece is real, and in some ways,

13:29 how are we responding to AI in this moment?

13:32 How are you able- do you even know how you learn?

13:34 That's an opportunity to learn because a lot of us,

13:36 we don't even think about it.

13:37 Maybe we read, but how do you learn best?

13:39 And that's actually a critical skill for for the future.

13:42 It is.

13:43 And I think a lot of times people learn best by doing.

13:45 Right now it's the breakthrough technology,

13:47 but it because it's so general purpose, eventually it's like electricity.

13:50 And so if you're a company that doesn't understand how

13:53 to adopt that, it's not an if it's going to work,

13:56 it's a it definitely will work.

13:57 That's right.

13:58 If you're not using the electricity, you're probably going to be, not around.

14:02 Right?

14:02 Right.

14:03 Unless you're a campsite, it's not going to work out.

14:05 That's right.

14:05 And so if there's one thing that you want people

14:07 to know about the future of work, what would it be?

14:10 I think if there's one thing I'd want people to know,

14:12 it's that really now is a time to be optimistic.

14:15 It's honestly an incredible time.

14:18 It's an incredible time in history,

14:20 for people to lean in and learn and be optimistic, and you know,

14:25 really think of yourself as, hey,

14:28 I can actually start the next big thing if I skill myself up with AI.

14:33 I love that.

14:34 It's been a pleasure.

14:35 Thanks so much.

14:36 Thank you, Sinead.