Trump and Hegseth Spout LIES and CONTRADICTIONS on Iran

0:01 [music]

0:04 Welcome raging waters.

0:05 I'm Scott Galloway.

0:06 And I'm Jessica Tarlov.

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0:18 All right, let's get into it.

0:20 With mixed messages coming out of Washington and Tehran,

0:23 it's still unclear whether the ceasefire between the US

0:25 and Iran is actually holding or just simply unraveling.

0:29 The Trump administration probably warned Iran ahead of the new operation

0:32 to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz urging them not to interfere.

0:37 But despite that warning, Iran launched attacks on US Navy ships,

0:40 commercial vessels, and even targets in the UAE.

0:44 US officials are now downplaying those strikes

0:46 as below the threshold of restarting the war with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

0:52 insisting the ceasefire is still intact for now.

0:56 Let's listen to Pete Hegseth's press conference this morning.

0:58 On the first day of this conflict,

1:00 President Trump addressed the Iranian people directly and said,

1:04 "When we're finished, take over your government.

1:07 It'll be yours to take." And then on the seventh day of the conflict,

1:12 in a Truth Social post, the president said,

1:14 "Quote, there will be no deal with Iran except all caps

1:18 {exclamation mark} unconditional surrender." What happens

1:23 to that pledge to the Iranians?

1:25 And when did the president decide

1:27 to capitulate on his demand for unconditional surrender?

1:31 Well, James, I wouldn't uh I wouldn't you [clears throat] started out nicely,

1:35 but you ended exactly where we knew you would end.

1:38 Uh the president hasn't capitulated on anything.

1:40 Uh he holds the cards.

1:42 We remain the we maintain the upper

1:43 hand and Project Freedom only strengthens that hand.

1:46 And so, he will ensure that whatever deal is made or whatever end

1:49 state is reached uh creates uh ensuring that Iran never has a nuclear weapon,

1:54 which is A number one, and he's been focused on that, and the deal

1:57 and discussions are centered on that.

1:59 And what the Iranian people take advantage of after the fact is up to them.

2:02 All the cards I mean, I'm late to this cuz everyone's been making fun

2:05 of the Uno post uh for a couple of days now,

2:08 but I'll throw my hat in the ring and say

2:10 you don't want all the cards when you're playing Uno,

2:12 and the White House shouldn't have posted that meme.

2:15 I'd laugh if it wasn't so serious,

2:19 and it feels like this is happening in suspended reality, right?

2:23 And like we're just all going about

2:25 our lives here and dealing with the day-to-day,

2:27 what the gas what the gas prices are, what's going on with our families, etc.

2:31 But there's still a war going on, no matter what they say.

2:35 I don't know the rules as well as other people, I'm sure,

2:39 but I don't think that the ceasefire timeout situation is

2:43 working insofar as what even

2:45 Republican representatives think about the conflict.

2:48 They still think we're on the clock and that maybe

2:50 they should get asked um if we are to continue.

2:53 And I understand that ceasefires are messy things, and also,

2:58 you know, you can have rogue actors who are continuing, let's say,

3:01 when even the folks at the top are saying a pause,

3:04 but this isn't one or two missiles that have been fired.

3:07 Um what's happening to the UAE is really serious.

3:11 Uh Modi has said something, the Prime Minister of India,

3:14 Israel has said something, and Israel would be thrilled, right,

3:17 if we could get back into this at the same

3:20 level that we were before the ceasefire went into place.

3:23 Give press conferences, I guess more transparency in quotes is better than not,

3:29 but you're not getting any good information out of any of this.

3:31 And I know it is an impossible ask,

3:34 but I feel like reporters should stop calling Trump.

3:38 And I get it, it feels like this incredible access,

3:41 and it is amazing that he actually just picks up the phone

3:44 no matter the hour and will kind of shoot the breeze with you.

3:47 But he's just feeding propaganda to these reporters,

3:50 and then they're reporting it as news,

3:53 which affects markets, certainly affects all of our algorithms.

3:57 You know, they're getting a huge amount of hits off off of it,

4:00 which is what they want and how they stay employed, etc.

4:03 But he's just lying to everybody about the ceasefire,

4:07 about how many cards we have,

4:09 who's in control, what's going on with negotiations.

4:13 Um so, probably falling on deaf ears,

4:15 but every time that I see a report or another tweet like,

4:18 "I just got off the phone with President Trump,

4:20 and he told me a a big bunch of bullshit." Yeah,

4:23 that's all he's got right now is a big bunch of[ __]

4:27 And you have to use some degree of judgment about it, right?

4:31 You report the news,

4:32 but then also say the facts on the ground indicate that this is not the case.

4:36 In my high school, because of the timing,

4:39 they thought it would be really interesting.

4:40 Everyone was reading the book 1984 cuz it was uh almost 1984.

4:45 And you read it, and you know,

4:48 I wasn't exactly a a mindful, thoughtful person back then,

4:52 but I do remember reading 1984 and thinking just the way

4:57 the teachers were so serious about it and and that there's something here,

5:02 there's something meaningful here that we need to be mindful of.

5:06 And there's a couple passages in there

5:09 that I think are relevant to today's um situation,

5:13 specifically uh the Republican Party.

5:16 And there's a quote in there,

5:18 "The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.

5:21 It was their final, most essential command." And another related passage,

5:26 "If all others accepted the lie which the party imposed,

5:29 if all records told the same tale,

5:32 then the lie passed into history and became truth." And there is some, you know,

5:37 there a lot of people say the the victors get to write history, right?

5:41 Uh actually, what's interesting,

5:42 I actually think that Americans dislike themselves so much that we

5:46 actually err on the side sometimes of of the enemy.

5:50 You know, 70 million people died in World War II.

5:52 40 million were killed by Germans and Japanese.

5:55 Uh but we focus on the atomic bomb or anyways,

5:58 but it's as if we have decided that the truth

6:02 or the Republican Party has decided these people are such acolytes,

6:05 we have such cultists that if we adopt this Roy

6:08 Cohn Trump of just repeating a lie over and over,

6:11 never backing down, never acknowledging a problem, that eventually,

6:16 if you repeat a lie long enough, it becomes less uh of a lie.

6:21 And I saw that again with Tucker Carlson when he's interviewed by the New York

6:25 Times and says those words never came out of my mouth, and she plays it.

6:29 And rather than saying getting angry or embarrassed,

6:31 she just pretends it didn't happen.

6:33 Yeah, like like as if we have absolutely we are we

6:37 have decided uh to reject the evidence of our eyes and ears.

6:41 And uh it you know, for this individual to say okay,

6:47 he demanded he demanded unconditional surrender.

6:50 First of all, that that just shows how stupid these people are.

6:54 There hasn't been unconditional surrender since they

6:57 were on that aircraft carrier in 1945.

6:59 That's not how war is engaged now.

7:01 No one ever actually declares unconditional unconditional surrender.

7:07 Uh I am more empathetic to the notion that, all right,

7:11 what is a truce, what isn't?

7:12 Unfortunately, we have a situation now where it

7:14 looks as if even if there is, quote unquote,

7:17 uh the definition of war is in fact met or the standards

7:21 of the semantic division or uh definition actual definition of war is met,

7:26 that they're going to say it doesn't because they don't want to trigger

7:28 the War the War Powers Act after 60 days they're supposed to go to Congress.

7:33 And the notion that they hold all the cards, I mean,

7:36 I I don't I understand the president trying to be responsive

7:41 to his party and say we need to get out of there,

7:43 but quite frankly, right now, he should be saying in a very resolute way,

7:47 "I'm going to do whatever the[ __] it takes

7:48 to open the Strait of Hormuz." And by him saying, "We hold all the cards,

7:53 but we're going to get out soon." What are

7:55 the IRGC's incentives to do anything uh to to open

8:02 the strait when it's clear that he just wants the hell out I want out of dodge,

8:07 but you better do what I'm telling you to do uh

8:10 because maybe I'll maybe I'll leave 48 hours later than I'm planning,

8:13 but I want to leave, but we're winning.

8:15 We have all the leverage, but we're out of here.

8:17 It's just it it it's as if none of these folks uh understand basic strategy,

8:24 basic negotiation, basic human behavior.

8:28 And uh uh at some point,

8:32 I don't know these things these press conferences have become so comical.

8:36 I think he he he's become farcical.

8:38 It's just never acknowledge a problem.

8:41 And our military leaders are usually very good

8:44 at giving a sober analysis of what's happened.

8:46 And I think uh one of the kind

8:50 of one of the core principles of evaluating a situation

8:54 for the military that I've tried to adopt in business

8:56 is you don't It's very easy to talk about the outcome,

9:00 and this is what happened, and it dictates the decisions.

9:03 The military says, "When we reevaluate an operation,

9:06 we're in a reevaluate officer's decisions,

9:10 was it the right decision at the time given the information?"

9:14 I think it would be entirely reasonable for the administration to say,

9:18 "At at the time when we started this military operation,

9:21 there was a real decent probability that we

9:24 were going to provide cloud cover and encourage

9:26 the Iranian people to rise up and potentially

9:28 topple this government." That did not happen.

9:31 Uh whether you want to call that a mistake

9:32 or an intelligence failure or bad luck,

9:35 but the the atmospherics supported military action here.

9:39 I think they could say that and also acknowledge

9:41 that it hasn't turned out the way they'd hoped,

9:44 and they would have a lot more credibility.

9:46 We have found additional our intelligence group found

9:49 additional nuclear material after we thought we'd eradicated it,

9:51 so we felt like we needed to go in.

9:53 Instead, it's just like ignore your powers of observation,

9:57 and we're just going to change the script based

9:59 on what we feel would be the right reality to justify

10:03 the current situation we're in to just justify our actions

10:07 and not in any way acknowledge what's actually uh happening here.

10:11 It is this It is if we are literally living uh It's not even Orwellian.

10:17 It's basically and Tucker Carlson is doing that now with that Times

10:20 interview that the leaders of the Republican Party are basically

10:23 saying to Republicans in the cult of We think you are

10:26 such[ __] idiots and such cultists that anything we say goes.

10:33 As long as we repeat it and we say it

10:35 with conviction and look you in the eye, it means it's true.

10:39 You can trust You can trust dear leader.

10:42 And at what point And And again,

10:44 I don't know how does the press I'm curious what your thoughts are.

10:47 Do you have any ideas for how the press should handle Secretary Hassett?

10:51 I think that you just have to keep

10:53 getting on the record and asking your questions.

10:55 I mean, Hassett comes off like you said it's

10:59 so comical and like such a caricature where you

11:01 really can't tell if it's him or Colin Jost

11:04 responding to these questions that you're doing your part essentially.

11:10 And you know, you have to continue showing up to the briefings.

11:13 I do think like I just mentioned that you don't need that 3:00 a.m.

11:17 phone call to him unless you know

11:19 that something is actually happening and you know,

11:22 not just to shoot the proverbial breeze.

11:25 Um but I think that you need to continue to conduct yourself professionally

11:29 to ask the questions that matter and then

11:31 other reporters have to support one another,

11:34 especially the women because he picks on the women more.

11:37 So, if he's going after Caitlin Collins you have to defend her, right?

11:41 And you have to knock the question back

11:43 to her to make sure that she can continue etc.

11:45 But, you know, you you do your part and you do it professionally.

11:49 That's what you know, I always say if I'm you know,

11:52 having a conversation that's turning into a fight

11:55 or someone else is acting how I view as unprofessionally,

11:58 keep your side of the street as clean

12:00 as possible and continue to hue to the truth because

12:04 the truth is out there and sometimes the truth

12:06 also involves saying that you don't know at that moment.

12:09 But, these are what we can verify for you.

12:12 Um and that's also the difference between you know,

12:14 opinion folks and reporters and those lines have gotten massively blurred.

12:19 Um but I want to pick up on what you were saying about you know,

12:22 if they came to us and said, you know,

12:25 we went in because we thought that this was a moment where you know,

12:28 it was feasible that the Iranian people would be able to rise up and you know,

12:31 take over the government.

12:32 That time was back in January.

12:35 Yeah.

12:35 Right?

12:35 That before they went and killed another 30,000 people.

12:38 Arguably when we did go in and I understand that the intelligence was

12:42 very good on the Israeli side that they were able to take out essentially,

12:46 you know, the entire top rung of the IRGC because

12:49 they all went for brunch together or whatever was going on.

12:52 But, that wasn't the moment for the Iranian people.

12:55 That was months prior.

12:57 And we missed that boat and it leads to this larger question about

13:04 how we could have misread so many levels of Iran and the Iranian regime.

13:10 Like where are the Iran experts in any of this?

13:13 How did no one think that they would have gotten more dug in, right,

13:17 as a result of this?

13:19 How come it was not on the front page of every major paper

13:23 or in all of the articles about this that it was going to be obvious

13:27 that the Strait of Hormuz was going to be the critical choke point

13:31 in this and that Iran would look at the cards that they were left with and say,

13:34 you know what we've got?

13:35 We've got a really important waterway.

13:38 And we're going to close it and we're going to charge

13:40 people for it or just not let anyone get through.

13:43 How was that not a discussion that was happening?

13:46 Because as you see this unfold,

13:48 you see that that's more and more the case that it's quite obvious

13:51 that they were not discussing it as a contingency and certainly you know,

13:55 maybe it was the the best kept secret in the world,

13:57 but it was a huge mistake to make.

13:59 And then a Middle Eastern official, very senior one,

14:03 comes out yesterday and says that Iran

14:04 can economically survive another eight to nine weeks.

14:09 That's before a total economic collapse.

14:11 So, you know, total economic collapse, that's obviously,

14:14 you know, way down on the scale there.

14:16 But, like another eight to nine weeks?

14:18 This was supposed to be everything from two

14:20 days to two weeks to four to six weeks.

14:22 The initial projection from the Trump administration

14:24 was that they would break after 13 days.

14:28 And I think also it's just completely misguided

14:30 that all of our focus is on, okay,

14:32 what happens to Iran in terms of their economics.

14:36 Our economics are in complete disaster mode.

14:41 So, I certainly if you're in Europe,

14:42 but GasBuddy is now saying that we're missing

14:44 18 million barrels of oil on a daily basis.

14:46 It'll take 65 weeks to get back to gas under $3 a gallon.

14:51 The Chevron CEO comes out and says that physical

14:54 shortages in oil supply are beginning to appear.

14:57 Worldwide energy crisis will go into 2027.

15:00 S&P Global Energy said that.

15:01 And the administration is still getting up

15:03 there and acting like it's like you know, flipping a switch, right?

15:06 Oh, are the lights on or are the lights off?

15:08 Are we in a war with Iran or are we not?

15:10 And it just feels like no one has any actual

15:14 understanding of the mechanics of this war on any level

15:18 from the theology of it down to the brass tax

15:24 of and it feels like no one is thinking about the obvious stuff.

15:29 And I get that I'm you know,

15:30 collecting this from various primary sources and people who know more than me,

15:34 but that's what you're supposed to do.

15:36 When you don't know, you're supposed to go to the people who have more

15:39 information than you and it feels like no one did that.

15:41 No one asked an Iran expert about any of these things cuz they're all you know,

15:46 they're online now tweeting away saying like I could have told you that.

15:50 Obviously they were going to do that.

15:51 What you're saying is a manifestation I really do

15:55 think the American public has taken so much for granted

15:58 and that it's now coming to fruition whether it's freedom

16:00 of navigation or TSA or air traffic control, what have you.

16:06 There's been so many components to the government that we take for granted.

16:09 And one of the things we've taken for granted

16:11 is our intelligence service and our diplomatic corps.

16:13 There are no more diplomats or all the only litmus test for whether

16:19 or not you're in this government

16:20 or surviving this government is loyalty, not expertise.

16:24 So, that's doubly dangerous cuz not only do

16:26 you lose the expertise of people who actually understand

16:29 the situation but you just have a bunch

16:32 of yes-men telling you what you want to hear.

16:33 And that is effectively kind of the strategy

16:35 or the the playbook for always the downfall

16:37 of these autocrats is they end up surrounding

16:39 themselves with yes-men and they never get good information.

16:42 And the most recent example of that is uh yeah,

16:45 we'll be in Kyiv in three to five days.

16:48 Right?

16:49 And Trump believed that.

16:50 I'm sorry.

16:50 And Putin believed that.

16:52 Oh, I didn't slip there.

16:53 So, we're seeing all this incompetence uh bubble up.

16:56 To your point uh I had Admiral Stavridis on the Prof

16:59 G pod and he said that the shock troops,

17:01 the 30,000 younger people who are willing to risk their lives

17:05 and gave their lives to try and overthrow the government

17:08 those people are dead and there wasn't a reserve of additional

17:11 shock troops once we went in and started started bombing.

17:16 But, this is just a total lack a total

17:19 lack of confidence um a sense that we don't

17:23 know what is going on and the only thing

17:27 I would add to this is that Americans in addition,

17:32 I think I I think there needs to be a reckoning here.

17:35 And all of it can't be just blaming one party or the other or an individual.

17:40 Americans want to spend want to outsource war.

17:44 Uh when George Bush went into Iraq, he told the American public,

17:49 oh, we can go to war and cut taxes.

17:51 You don't have to eat dinner and you

17:53 can eat candy and not go to school tomorrow.

17:54 And the American public believed him and as a result,

17:58 we now have George Washington, George Bush, 7 trillion in deficits.

18:02 Uh George Bush to currently another 33 trillion dollars in deficits.

18:09 And quite frankly, we're very soft.

18:13 I mean, economic collapse in Iran is

18:15 food shortages and potentially riots in the street.

18:19 We're nowhere near economic collapse.

18:21 I I understand that it's that it's tough on Americans.

18:24 I don't mean to sound like you know, a lack of empathy,

18:27 but the reality is if people's internet goes down for an hour or AWS goes down,

18:32 the whole nation freaks out.

18:34 We believe that if we just spend go from 1 trillion to 1.4 trillion

18:38 that that will in that will give

18:40 us limitless ability to throw our weight around.

18:42 No.

18:43 We need to have the operating system and control

18:45 and cooperation of 2/3 of the world economy,

18:48 not 1/3 by treating the other third, our Western allies,

18:50 like[ __] Two, we need to understand asymmetric warfare.

18:54 The battlefield has changed dramatically.

18:56 And three, and this is the hard part we kind of have to show

18:59 when we take these military actions that we're in it to win it.

19:03 Because it doesn't matter if you're a superior army,

19:06 if you have what I referred to before

19:08 as a glass jaw it's kind of just hold them out.

19:12 I don't see any incentives at this point unless they can ensure

19:16 that no oil is flowing out or being transported out of Iran

19:19 and even if it is Do you think the IRGC can is

19:22 is really worried if their general populace goes hungry for a few weeks?

19:27 I I They're claiming eight or nine weeks.

19:31 I don't think there's any[ __] way these people give in in eight or nine weeks.

19:33 But again, I'm not an expert and it's hard to find an expert

19:37 cuz they were fired because they weren't all sycophants um to Trump.

19:43 What do you think about the um

19:44 the Iranian foreign minister going to China tomorrow?

19:47 Cuz that seems like a big deal.

19:49 Like we're going next week, right?

19:51 Trump goes the 15th or the 16th.

19:53 So, it that feels like in the midst of war or ceasefire

19:57 or whatever we're in, like a pretty big deal that they're having,

20:01 you know, a high-end public meeting.

20:04 It's a giant[ __] you to the US because those two easily

20:06 could have got on a secure phone line and not let it out.

20:08 But him publicly going over there is

20:10 China basically saying that we are empathetic,

20:14 want to have relationships with the IRGC in the midst

20:16 of a war with who used to be a strong trading partner,

20:20 uh the United United States.

20:21 It's absolutely a it's it's China cosying up or at least um

20:26 distancing itself or quite frankly um waving the middle finger at Trump.

20:32 Um that's how I see it.

20:33 How do you see it?

20:34 I do as well.

20:34 And it just also, you know, if this is the same person who's

20:37 supposed to be helping with nuclear negotiations,

20:42 it feels like I would feel a lot better, you know,

20:45 if you were in Islamabad having conversations with our top

20:48 real estate developer Tyan uh then going and you know,

20:52 sharing a podium with the Chinese and talking about all

20:56 the various ways in which they cooperate because that that's the IRGC.

21:00 If they have 8 to 9 weeks left, maybe that's the case, maybe it isn't.

21:04 But if you have China behind you and they can find

21:06 a way over the course of the next couple of months to be

21:09 able to get that oil out and get more capital in, which

21:13 I imagine the Chinese aren't inviting them over there to say,

21:16 "Hey, we actually don't want to be friends

21:18 with you anymore and we're not going to help you

21:19 out here." Like seems like a pretty big deal

21:23 and will lead to them being further dug in frankly.

21:27 You know, maybe China has some message of we we

21:29 want this to end and and find a a route out,

21:33 but I imagine that they'll be further emboldened

21:35 as a result of having uh public Chinese backing like that.

21:39 Okay, let's take a quick break.

21:40 Stay with us.

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23:00 [music] Welcome back.

23:01 Meanwhile, back at home, there's a different kind of political tug-of-war,

23:04 this time inside the Senate.

23:05 A handful of Republican senators are

23:07 reportedly trying to persuade Pennsylvania Senator

23:09 John Fetterman to switch parties

23:10 or become an independent caucusing with Republicans.

23:13 Wow, this I did I mean, I guess I should have seen this coming.

23:16 I didn't.

23:16 What do you make of this, Jess?

23:18 Well, I don't think it's going to happen.

23:20 Um I think it's a bit of a pipe dream.

23:22 You know, if Joe Manchin didn't become a Republican,

23:25 I don't think John Fetterman is going to.

23:27 John Fetterman is way to the left of even where Manchin was.

23:30 He still votes with the party 91 to 93% of the time.

23:33 The big areas of policy disagreement with the party are definitely on Israel.

23:39 Um it's the only thing that he puts a suit on for is

23:41 when Netanyahu came um and spoke to a joint session of Congress.

23:45 And he doesn't really have patience for what

23:47 he sees are kind of partisan silly fights.

23:50 Like he thinks, you know, keep the government open.

23:52 You should be able to do your job without shutting down the government, etc.

23:56 Um but there's a real fissure there.

23:59 He doesn't have friends on the Democratic side.

24:01 His closest friends are Dave McCormick, who's, you know,

24:04 the moderate Republican Senator other

24:06 Senator from Pennsylvania, and Katie Britt.

24:09 Um he hangs out with them and their spouses all the time.

24:12 And Donald Trump has apparently offered him

24:15 a financial incentive to switch parties cuz of course,

24:18 you know, money is all that matters.

24:20 Yeah.

24:21 Well, it's so funny.

24:22 I'm like, the guy is wearing, you know,

24:24 an outfit fully from Modell's or something like that.

24:27 And you think that he's going to be swayed because you gave him a lot of money.

24:31 Um I also think like John Fetterman could not go

24:34 home and face his wife if he did something like this.

24:38 You know, she was an undocumented immigrant, super progressive.

24:44 Um that was always his brand in the primary

24:47 for him to become the nominee for that seat.

24:50 He was up against Conor Lamb,

24:51 who was a congressman and was the more conservative one in the primary.

24:56 You know, John Fetterman was to the left of everything.

24:59 So, I don't see it really happening,

25:01 but it makes for some good cloakroom drama, I guess.

25:06 Um and it would have if it did something like that did happen,

25:09 it would have an enormous impact.

25:11 I mean, the numbers are so thin and Democrats are hopeful

25:15 to pick up a few seats in the Senate even in the midterms.

25:18 So, it would be a huge shock.

25:20 Uh and speaking of fractures inside political coalitions,

25:23 things keep getting a little uncomfortable inside of um MAGA.

25:26 Marjorie Taylor Greene now says Donald Trump privately warned her that releasing

25:30 the Epstein files could hurt people in his own orbit,

25:32 specifically at Mar-a-Lago.

25:35 She says she pushed back, arguing the focus should be on the victims.

25:38 Let's take a listen.

25:39 I was in my office in the Rayburn building,

25:42 and I got a phone call from the president.

25:45 And he was at the White House, and he wanted to talk to me about the dish

25:49 part discharge petition that I'd signed my name on.

25:52 And he said, "Marjorie,

25:54 you're going to have to take your name off that discharge petition.

25:57 The these we can't let This is a hoax.

26:00 We can't carry this This is a hoax.

26:01 It's a Democrat hoax.

26:03 And we've got to just put this away and stop doing this." And he said,

26:07 "My friends are going to get hurt." He said

26:11 his friends would get hurt if we release the Epstein files.

26:16 I did I'm still just not there on her.

26:19 I get it that she's saying all the right stuff,

26:21 not the crazy alien stuff that she says.

26:24 But like, you know, this.

26:25 And she had a good line about how her TDS's and Trump derangement syndrome it's

26:29 Trump dis- disillusionment syndrome, I think.

26:32 But disappointment.

26:34 Disappointment.

26:34 Um but I don't know.

26:37 I I'm all for a big tent.

26:39 My tent feels a little smaller than Marjorie Taylor Greene.

26:43 Uh how are you How What do you What do you think she's after?

26:47 Big tent.

26:48 I hope she's mauled and eaten by a lion.

26:50 Oh, then There we go.

26:53 [laughter] Uh I kidding.

26:55 No calls for violence.

26:56 My response is the same response I have

26:59 whenever I get a call from a Democratic senator

27:02 or a billionaire businessperson who says they want

27:05 to talk to me about my ideas about young men.

27:07 I say the same thing, and then there's an awkward silence, and then we laugh.

27:10 And I say the following, "Oh,

27:11 you're running for president." I'm like, I I'm I'm an interesting guy.

27:16 I've got some interesting ideas.

27:17 But the reason you're on the phone

27:18 with me right now is you're running for president.

27:20 You want to come on the pod.

27:22 She's running for president.

27:24 And and she's not her and Tucker Carlson have all have identified the mother

27:30 of all If the Strait of Hormuz is wide as the Pacific Ocean,

27:35 this is the lane that these people see, and they're smart politically.

27:39 And supposedly, the odds-on favorites are Trump and Vance.

27:42 Except here's the problem.

27:44 Trump is[ __] Chernobyl right after the reactor exploded.

27:49 And anyone around that reactor for any extended period

27:52 of time is going to die a death of political leukemia.

27:57 Nobody gets out of his orbit alive.

27:59 He doesn't give a[ __] about the party.

28:01 He doesn't give a[ __] about Vance or Rubio.

28:04 He's such a narcissist.

28:06 I'm fairly certain that he probably doesn't want a Republican

28:09 to win so he can blame it on He can say,

28:11 "I'm the only guy that could win for the Republicans." Who

28:14 Who coming out of the previous administration has done really well politically?

28:20 Like who's that guy was great to be near the president?

28:22 He is radioactive.

28:25 Vance and Rubio do not get out of this alive.

28:28 They die a painful They die They die a painful death.

28:32 What the blane is is someone who has conservative values,

28:37 supported Trump, disillusioned, anti-war, anti-Israel.

28:42 That is a huge lane.

28:45 And I think she and Tucker Carlson both see that lane.

28:49 All of a sudden she's found, you know, conservative values,

28:53 and she wants to be She's trying to stay on the stage,

28:55 and I believe she's planning a run for president, as is Tucker Carlson,

29:00 who all of a sudden is embracing and defending Nick Fuentes cuz he realizes

29:03 that the manosphere is really important to whoever

29:07 eventually is going to be the Republican nomination.

29:10 But they have all identified this lane of I am

29:13 for the values that Trump initially adhered to in his first term.

29:18 I am against these forever wars.

29:20 I am in favor of releasing the full Epstein files.

29:24 I am anti-Israel, anti-Netanyahu.

29:27 But you can trust me, I'm a hardcore conservative family values Republican.

29:33 Uh and Donald Trump has strayed.

29:36 There is an enormous lane for that right now.

29:39 And the majority of people in elected office

29:41 that he has not already alienated or pissed off are

29:44 afraid that he will go after them and contaminate

29:47 them or just shut them down or what have you.

29:51 Um so yeah, she's she's thirsty.

29:53 She wants to stay in the news.

29:55 She wants to stay present.

29:57 Uh but my sense is someone has talked her into believing

29:59 that she's a viable candidate for the Republican nomination.

30:03 Your thoughts?

30:05 I wouldn't doubt that that, you know,

30:06 she's thinking about it or at least having,

30:09 you know, some sort of life after Congress.

30:11 But I do think that Trump will still wield more power in the 2028 landscape than

30:18 somebody who's coming out and saying things like

30:21 "If I revealed my text messages with Donald Trump,

30:24 I'd probably be in jail." Or this guy totally sold us all out.

30:28 It's one thing to have a couple of gripes with him,

30:31 but to generally still be in the tent.

30:34 I don't know about someone who's in like a complete warfare mode.

30:40 Because he will still, even if the base gets a bit smaller,

30:44 it's usually what, 25 to 30%.

30:46 Let's say it's down to even 18 to 25% or something like that.

30:51 There's still a lot of people that he'd

30:53 be able to command essentially to say like,

30:56 "You know, I understand you you want change.

31:00 Maybe you don't want my number two cuz, you know,

31:02 he's not as good as me." And I think that's a very valid argument to make.

31:06 You know, Trump is the genuine article and J.D.

31:08 Vance is a shapeshifter who's done everything from call him

31:11 Hitler to say he's the greatest thing in the entire world.

31:14 But I feel like he's going to stop at nothing to destroy

31:17 people who have gone who are going so hard against him.

31:21 I think it's a decent bet.

31:22 It's very hard for people to imagine themselves because

31:26 of sur- survival instinct that they'll ever actually die.

31:29 There's a couple things I just never thought would happen.

31:32 My dog Zoe, I could never imagine her dying for some reason.

31:35 I couldn't even envision it.

31:35 Even when she got sick, I just couldn't actually wrap my head around the notion

31:38 that this is a dog might actually die at some point.

31:40 When we had our first child,

31:42 I could never actually imagine my partner's water breaking.

31:46 I just I just thought her stomach was going to continue

31:48 to grow and we were never actually going to have a baby.

31:50 I couldn't even I couldn't envision it.

31:52 I think the American public

31:54 you that all she thought about was not being pregnant, though.

31:57 Was yeah, getting that thing Actually, you know what?

32:00 Actually, I'm not exaggerating.

32:02 She was the most beautiful pregnant woman in the world.

32:05 She loved being pregnant.

32:06 She would walk into a restaurant, I'm not exaggerating,

32:09 people would stop eating dinner and come over

32:11 to her and tell her how beautiful she was.

32:13 And she loved the attention.

32:15 Anyways, I think the American public doesn't recognize the actuarial

32:20 chance that Donald Trump doesn't make it through office.

32:23 He is an obese 79-year-old man, which according to actuarial tables means

32:28 there's about a 12% annual mortality rate.

32:30 So, in the next 2 and 1/2 years, there's about a one in three chance he dies.

32:36 So, the over/under on carving out that lane and the fact

32:40 that he gets even more and more unpopular, I don't know.

32:43 I think I think let me put it this way,

32:44 there's much there's much bigger long shots.

32:47 It's absolutely clear to me Tucker Carlson is running for president.

32:50 And I think that Marjorie Taylor Greene is lining up and taking,

32:54 "Well, I'll I'll stay visible.

32:56 Maybe I'll be someone's VP pick." But she's she is Oh my gosh,

33:01 are these people are these people thirsty?

33:04 It's just so clear they're lining up for something.

33:07 Okay, let's take a quick break.

33:08 Stay with us.

33:12 Welcome back.

33:13 Let's zoom out from political drama to policy.

33:15 There's a pretty notable shift happening on AI.

33:17 After years of pushing against regulation of artificial intelligence,

33:20 the White House is now considering introducing

33:22 a government oversight process around new AI models.

33:26 Just the administration has long held the stance that AI shouldn't be regulated,

33:29 that it would just hold progress back.

33:31 Uh what do you think has changed?

33:33 Nothing.

33:34 I think it I think they just know that they're supposed

33:36 to say that and then they're not going to do anything.

33:39 I mean, if you look at any White House event,

33:41 it's all tech titans who all have a vested interest in not ever being regulated.

33:48 I do think it is the most amazing opportunity for Democrats especially,

33:55 um because they're not in power right now, but even sensible Republicans.

33:59 Cuz if you look at people's level of concern with AI, massive.

34:04 I mean, these town halls about data centers are I mean,

34:08 you would think that people are saying, "I'm I'm going to come.

34:10 I'm going to burn down your house." Like that's

34:12 how extreme uh the the reaction to what's coming,

34:18 whatever the future looks like, is for these folks.

34:20 And um I saw a poll, it was about 50% of people didn't know

34:25 who they thought was better to regulate AI or to deal with whatever AI is going

34:30 to bring for working-class people up to white-collar folks,

34:34 where it seems like some of the effects could actually felt um the strongest.

34:37 But I want you talk about this because you're way better on AI than I am.

34:42 No, I thought I think you're exactly right.

34:43 I think that delay and obfuscation is kind of the go-to strategy.

34:49 Uh it's an enormous opportunity for Democrats

34:52 to outline fairly basic regulation, right?

34:54 Age gating on character AI.

34:56 60-day hold period for testing amongst a group of uh AI academics, economists,

35:03 technologists to beta test the[ __] out

35:06 of something as opposed to Dario Amodei saying,

35:08 "I'm only going out to 40 customers cuz

35:10 I'm worried about it." Any new product release,

35:12 any new LLM has to be I mean, if it takes if it takes the FDA 10 years,

35:17 if the FDA can delay a drug's uh introduction

35:19 to the market by a decade to make sure that it's safe,

35:22 there's no reason why the government can't ask uh every technology

35:26 company in AI to let them play with the model and test

35:29 the[ __] out of it and bang it every which way but loose

35:33 for 60 to 90 days and then have regulations around um weapons,

35:39 self-healing weapons, invasion of privacy,

35:41 having it being used for surveillance.

35:44 There's a really interesting argument that someone made

35:47 that kind of struck me as being very salient.

35:49 And that is, according to these guys, AI is more powerful and a greater

35:56 existential threat than any technology including nuclear weapons.

36:02 And so the question is, all right, well,

36:04 we don't let private venture-backed companies build nuclear weapons.

36:08 Why at all are we letting private companies build AI?

36:13 Now, I don't believe we should make make all of these things

36:16 government companies because I do think there's a lot of economic value here.

36:19 We want to stay competitive.

36:20 The private sector is more innovative than the public sector.

36:24 But there is if there were in my view,

36:27 there is a dramatic need and a sensible need

36:31 for pretty serious formation of an agency of very intelligent people,

36:36 someone you know, that someone reminiscent of the EPA or the FDA.

36:40 And everybody doesn't like regulation until they realize we have no[

36:44 __] experts to tell us what to do and planes start

36:47 getting backed up and our food supply goes bad or no

36:50 one can tell us what the[ __] is going on in Iran.

36:52 Folks, our government operates on the whole really well.

36:55 There needs to be an agency that uh regulates these things and some

37:00 common sense laws around um how AI is used and how we

37:05 can how we can kind of quite frankly just beta test the[ __]

37:09 out of it and make sure that it doesn't get turned against us.

37:14 Uh and just politically, a Democrat who was interested in me,

37:18 Gavin Newsom should should be all over this.

37:20 And they have proposed some legislation,

37:23 but he should be He's gone from the all-caps great social media guy.

37:27 He should pivot to becoming and there's an opportunity here for Bashir,

37:31 Shapiro to say, "You know what?

37:33 I actually understand this technology or at least my staff does.

37:36 And I've come out with a 20- or 30-page, you know,

37:40 AI regulation manifesto that's summarized in one page

37:44 such that I can go on CNN and say,

37:46 "You know, Jake, these are the three top points.

37:49 You know, Bret Baier, these are these are the basic three points

37:51 around some sort of regulation." Because the first person

37:55 that demonstrates that they sort of understand AI gets

37:58 the attribute that never goes out of style, youth.

38:01 They will look young.

38:03 They will look like, "Oh,

38:03 that person understands these scary technologies that I don't understand,

38:08 but I believe somebody needs to understand because clearly in Washington,

38:13 they've gotten a reputation for like,

38:14 "Okay, you know, I understand fax machines.

38:17 I have my assistant print out my emails, right?

38:20 I don't know how to clean my CPAP.

38:22 I know um technology for me is the wheels

38:25 my oxygen tank rolls on." That was probably a little much.

38:28 Anyways, this is an opportunity flourish like that.

38:31 I think it really hit home.

38:33 This is a lane for a Democrat to come out and say,

38:36 "I really I'm I understand AI.

38:39 I don't understand This is for example,

38:42 this would be a great lane and a great talk track for Mayor Pete.

38:46 He's young.

38:47 He's smart.

38:48 He he has incredible ability to distill very complicated

38:51 issues down to a series of very digestible talking points.

38:55 He should He should absolutely I don't What

38:57 the[ __] is Mayor Pete doing right now?

38:59 What is he doing?

39:00 Well, he's he's like the number one

39:02 requested surrogate for all of these Democrats.

39:05 He's all over the country holding these amazing events and town halls.

39:10 Um I mean, I I mean Okay, but does he have an actual job?

39:13 What's his title?

39:13 How does How does he make money?

39:14 What's he doing right now?

39:15 Do you have any idea?

39:17 Substack?

39:17 Maybe?

39:18 No, I mean, he is on Substack.

39:19 I mean, he's But we know he's he's he's he's he's

39:22 he's the head of a think tank or a political center somewhere.

39:25 Anyway, my point is

39:27 but My point is a really big opportunity for him would be to be

39:31 the politician who really understands technology

39:33 and specifically AI who could say, "All right,

39:36 this is attention around data centers." And this kind of leads

39:39 into our next story around income inequality and and the Met Ball,

39:42 but data centers have become the flash point for AI because people are saying,

39:48 "Okay, they're building this building over there.

39:51 I know it's going to make someone rich who I don't know.

39:53 I don't even get to participate if I

39:55 had the money cuz these stocks aren't public.

39:57 All I've heard is my electric electricity prices

40:00 are going to go up 12% and supposedly

40:01 this[ __] is really bad for the environment."

40:04 And it's not even that that has them angry.

40:06 It's it's a symbol.

40:08 It's it's something they can throw a tomato around around income inequality.

40:13 And speaking of income inequality,

40:14 this is going to be our segue to ending on something a little lighter,

40:18 but it's still political in its own way.

40:20 This year's Met Gala didn't just belong to fashion and Hollywood.

40:24 It belonged to Silicon Valley.

40:25 The event raised a record 42 million powered in large part by tech

40:29 money with Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez

40:31 Bezos leading the charge as top sponsors.

40:34 What did you make of the Met Ball?

40:37 I have to say I'm not like a total die hard that, you know,

40:41 is waiting for the red carpet.

40:43 I do I peruse through.

40:45 I liked a lot of the outfits.

40:46 It was interesting to see Blake Lively out there

40:49 cuz the Justin Baldoni lawsuit it got settled yesterday.

40:52 I don't know who was not there because of the Amazon influence.

40:57 There's swirl that that's why Zendaya didn't go this year.

41:01 Um, you know, it's a kind of pushback especially because

41:04 of ICE detention centers and things like that um vis-à-vis Amazon,

41:08 but it feels like a metaphor for what's going on in every

41:14 part of our society that the tech overlords are now controlling everything.

41:19 And I have nothing against Lauren Sanchez Bezos.

41:22 It It seems like she's a pretty nice person and Nice woman.

41:27 Yeah, and you know, she looks beautiful.

41:30 Also also ridiculously[ __] tone deaf.

41:33 Writing a writing a giving an article in the New

41:35 York Times talking about how amazing her life is.

41:38 I would not have done that personally.

41:40 I thought of what Brooke said.

41:41 Keep it Do you remember that great line with William Hurt

41:44 where he says what happens when your reality exceeds your wildest dreams?

41:47 Now what Brooke's response keep it to yourself.

41:49 Yeah.

41:50 Some quiet She seems like I met her.

41:52 She seems very nice.

41:53 All of her friends everyone that knows her says she's lovely.

41:56 Just have a[ __] amazing life kind of you know, a little bit below the radar.

42:00 People needed to don't need to understand how you married.

42:03 Anyways, No, but to that point I I'm not No, no, no.

42:07 It's a conversation.

42:08 We're not interrupting.

42:09 Um, but I don't have that gene in me

42:13 where I crave being around celebrities like that.

42:19 Like I just I don't get it.

42:20 I mean, I haven't been invited to the Met Gala,

42:22 so maybe it would change if I were,

42:24 but I thought Mom Donny had the perfect response where he was like, "I'm good.

42:28 I'm going to focus on working class people and I love the Met.

42:31 I'm glad that they're going to raise a lot of money.

42:33 It's important etc.,

42:34 but like that's not where the working class mayor is needed." Um,

42:39 that seems like a good response to it and obviously,

42:42 you know, setting a difference with Mayor Adams,

42:45 but I I would feel like such a loser, right?

42:48 If I was just the person that was footing

42:50 the bill for the thing at and just staring at Beyoncé

42:55 and trying to figure out what her outfit signifies

42:57 about her next album that's to come and, you know,

43:00 trying to, you know, pick the meaning out of Lady Gaga's outfit etc.

43:03 Like you should when you have that much money should have

43:08 a little bit more self-awareness for who you are in all

43:10 of this and standing next to Nicole Kidman on the red

43:14 carpet is just not It's not the best look to me personally.

43:19 Yeah, it feels like when you're buy votes to be homecoming queen or king.

43:23 Yeah.

43:24 Uh I said on Pivot I thought it

43:25 was the perfect marriage because Vogue and, you know,

43:30 these magazines have I just too much rizz and not enough

43:34 money and Bezos has too much money and not enough rizz,

43:39 but it was really interesting it became a politicized event.

43:42 I don't know how to say this without sounding like a douchebag,

43:44 so I'm just going to say it.

43:45 I got invited and it fell on the same I was in By the way,

43:48 I don't know if you know this I was in Germany today in Hamburg,

43:50 Germany and I thought, "Okay, I can go to Germany, eat sausage,

43:55 drink[ __] amazing beer and hang out I I

44:00 spoke at Online Marketing Rockstars and I loved the event.

44:03 It was This was such an easy call.

44:07 I mean, it doesn't seem like that much fun to me.

44:10 It seems like Instagram, but even more self-absorbed.

44:14 And also, I do think and it comes back to data centers.

44:18 I do think these folks don't realize that kind of a let

44:25 them eat cake party it's just sort of in bad taste right now.

44:29 You know, it's one thing to celebrate fashion and young designers.

44:32 I get it, but to have it sponsored by Bezos

44:35 at this moment is just not a good idea.

44:38 I think Anna Wintour quite frankly I think she[ __] up here.

44:41 I think they should have figured out a way to keep it more authentic

44:45 as opposed to having whatever the fourth

44:47 richest man in the world basically sponsor it.

44:49 The other thing I don't like just to piss off progressives the, you know,

44:54 I'm seeing all these TikToks and Instagrams of how genius it was

44:57 to have all these Amazon workers beaming things saying, "I'm a worker.

45:00 You should be throwing this party for me." I don't like that either.

45:04 I I think you I think fine.

45:06 Don't go, write an op-ed, but don't try and[ __] up their event.

45:10 Let them have their Let them have their party.

45:13 Um I don't the whole thing if there's a year

45:18 where this thing jumped the shark, it was this year.

45:22 It wasn't about the fashion.

45:24 It wasn't about people.

45:25 It wasn't about looking fabulous.

45:26 It wasn't about New York and New York this is a great event for New York.

45:30 It's a great event for the fashion industry and quite frankly,

45:34 it just came across as tone deaf.

45:37 And the Bezos family you know,

45:40 Jeff and Lauren's involvement in it just uh quite frankly,

45:46 that was a that was a whiff.

45:48 It's one thing for him to be invited.

45:49 He's a successful guy.

45:51 She's a beautiful woman.

45:53 They're in the midst of a midlife crisis that they'll

45:55 grow out of in about 40 or 50 years.

45:57 I say they lean into it.

45:57 I'm kind of here for it.

45:59 But to have them sponsoring this thing, it felt like a miss.

46:04 It felt like it felt like someone close to the Bezos needed to say, "You know,

46:09 it's like when my father My father said

46:11 to me something a couple things stuck with me.

46:13 He said the key to happiness in America is to be rich,

46:15 but anonymous." They need to be a little bit more anonymous.

46:19 They need to fly under the radar.

46:21 And there is opportunity for you to give to things without

46:25 your name and certainly your physical presence plastered all over everything.

46:30 It happens all the time.

46:30 They could have just given the money.

46:32 Yeah, they could have just said,

46:33 "How much money do we need to give to make sure we get invited?" I mean,

46:35 I you know, I wouldn't be above that.

46:37 It's like, "Okay, you want to get invited to something cool,

46:40 you got to give money." That's no different than buying tickets

46:42 to World Cup which by the way are ridiculously[ __] expensive.

46:46 Yeah.

46:47 Can you even like you know, Fox has it and it is everyone wants to go.

46:53 It is like the most requested set of tickets um that we've ever had.

46:58 I want to go to a Mexico City game.

47:00 Oh, that would be amazing.

47:02 That would absolutely be amazing.

47:04 not on the cards for me.

47:05 On the cards or in the cards?

47:06 I never know.

47:07 Not in the cards.

47:08 Yeah.

47:09 Yeah.

47:10 All right.

47:10 Well, let's leave it there, Jess.

47:11 If anybody wants to take us we we we don't want to go to the Met Ball,

47:15 but we will absolutely uh do whatever you want uh and we're we're both fun.

47:21 We both like to drink.

47:22 Actually, I don't know if you like to drink.

47:24 Uh one of us likes to drink.

47:26 That's all I can handle,

47:27 but I'm a great time after that one drink for like an hour.

47:31 You'll look much better on someone's arm than me,

47:34 but let's any anyone wants to take us to to World Cup we're in.

47:38 Yeah.

47:39 Yeah, there you go.

47:40 We're absolutely in.

47:41 Before we go, a reminder the Raging Moderates

47:44 is on Substack as part of Prof G Plus.

47:46 If you sign up for Prof G Plus,

47:48 not only will you get access to ad-free episodes and exclusive live streams,

47:51 you'll also get a way to connect with me, Jess, and the community.

47:54 Plus, you can get the Raging Moderates newsletter,

47:56 the Monday Rage, in your inbox every week.

47:59 So, come join us.

48:00 Sign up at ragingmoderates.profgmedia.com.

48:03 Also, we're making a few changes to the show.

48:05 You'll be getting more of the two

48:07 of us with longer episodes dropping Monday, Tuesday,

48:09 and Thursday afternoons in addition to all

48:11 the fun and rage that's happening on Substack.

48:14 That's all for this episode.

48:16 Uh thanks so much for joining us today.

48:17 Jess, I will see you on Thursday.

48:20 On Thursday.

48:25 [music] [music]