Trump and Hegseth Spout LIES and CONTRADICTIONS on Iran

0:04 Welcome, Raging Moderates.

0:05 I'm Scott Galloway

0:06 and I'm Jessica Tarla.

0:07 Uh, the easiest way to support us or the most kind

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0:18 All right, let's get into it.

0:20 With mixed messages coming out of Washington and Tran,

0:23 it's still unclear whether the ceasefire between the US

0:25 and Iran is actually holding or just simply unraveling.

0:29 The Trump administration privately warned Iran ahead of the new

0:32 operation to escort ships through the Strait of Homos,

0:35 urging them not to interfere.

0:37 But despite that warning, Iran launched attacks on US Navy ships,

0:41 commercial vessels, and even targets in the UAE.

0:44 US officials are now downplaying those strikes

0:46 as below the threshold of restarting the war with Defense Secretary Pete Hexath

0:52 insisting the ceasefire is still intact for now.

0:56 Let's listen to Pete Hexath's press conference this morning.

0:58 On the first day of this conflict,

1:00 President Trump addressed the Iranian people directly and said,

1:04 "When we're finished, take over your government.

1:07 It'll be yours to take." And then on the seventh day of the conflict,

1:12 in a truth social post, the president said,

1:14 quote, "There will be no deal with Iran except all caps

1:18 exclamation mark unconditional surrender." What happens

1:23 to that pledge to the Iranians?

1:25 And when did the president decide

1:27 to capitulate on his demand for unconditional surrender?

1:31 Well, James, I wouldn't uh I wouldn't.

1:34 You started out nicely, but you ended exactly where we knew you would end.

1:38 Uh the president hasn't capitulated on anything.

1:40 Uh he holds the cards.

1:42 We remain the we maintain the upper hand,

1:44 and project freedom only strengthens that hand.

1:46 And so he will ensure that whatever deal is made or whatever end state is

1:50 reached uh creates uh ensuring that Iran never

1:54 has a nuclear weapon which is a number

1:55 one and he's been focused on that and the deal and discussions are centered

1:58 on that and what the Iranian people take

2:00 advantage of after the fact is up to them.

2:03 All the cards I mean I'm late to this because everyone's been making

2:05 fun of the UNO post uh for a couple of days now but I'll

2:09 throw my hat in the ring and say you don't want all the cards

2:11 when you're playing Uno and the White House shouldn't have posted that meme.

2:16 I'd laugh if it wasn't so serious and it

2:19 feels like this is happening in suspended reality, right?

2:23 And like we're just all going about

2:25 our lives here and dealing with the dayto-day,

2:27 what the guys what the gas prices are, what's going on with our families, etc.

2:32 But there's still a war going on no matter what they say.

2:35 I don't know the rules as well as other people, I'm sure.

2:39 But I don't think that the ceasefire timeout situation is working

2:44 in so far as what even Republican representatives think about the conflict.

2:48 They still think we're on the clock and that maybe

2:50 they should get asked um if we are to continue.

2:54 And I understand that ceasefires are messy things.

2:57 And also, you know, you can have rogue actors who are continuing,

3:01 let's say, when even the folks at the top are saying a pause.

3:04 But this isn't one or two missiles that have been fired.

3:07 Um what's happening to the UAE is really serious.

3:11 Uh Modi has said something.

3:12 The prime minister of India,

3:14 Israel has said something and Israel would be thrilled, right,

3:17 if we could get back into this at the same

3:20 level that we were before the ceasefire went into place.

3:24 Give press conferences.

3:25 I guess more transparency in quotes is better than not.

3:29 But you're not getting any good information out of any of this.

3:31 And I know it is an impossible ask,

3:35 but I feel like reporters should stop calling Trump.

3:38 And I get it.

3:39 It feels like this incredible access and it

3:41 is amazing that he actually just picks

3:44 up the phone no matter the hour and we'll kind of shoot the breeze with you.

3:47 But he's just feeding propaganda to these reporters and then they're reporting

3:51 it as news which affects markets certainly affects all of our algorithms.

3:57 you know, they're getting a huge amount of hits off off of it,

4:00 which is what they want, and how they stay employed, etc.

4:03 But he's just lying to everybody about the ceasefire,

4:07 about how many cards we have,

4:10 who's in control, what's going on with negotiations.

4:13 Um, so probably falling on deaf ears,

4:15 but every time that I see a report or another tweet like,

4:18 "I just got off the phone with President Trump

4:20 and he told me a big bunch of bullshit." Yeah,

4:23 that's all he's got right now is a big bunch of[ __]

4:27 And you have to use some degree of judgment about it, right?

4:31 You report the news,

4:32 but then also say the facts on the ground indicate that this is not the case.

4:36 In my high school, because of the timing,

4:39 they thought it would be really interesting.

4:40 Everyone was reading the book 1984 because it was uh almost 1984.

4:45 and you read it and you know I

4:48 wasn't exactly a mindful thoughtful person back then

4:52 but I do remember reading 1984 and thinking just

4:56 the way the teachers were so serious about it

5:00 and that there's something here there's something meaningful here

5:05 that we need to be mindful of and there's

5:07 a couple passages in there that I think are

5:10 relevant to today's um situation specifically uh the Republican party.

5:16 And there's a quote in there,

5:18 the party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.

5:21 It was their final most essential command.

5:24 And another related passage,

5:26 if all others accepted the lie which the party imposed,

5:29 if all records told the same tale,

5:32 then the lie passed into history and became truth.

5:36 And there is some, you know,

5:37 there a lot of people say the the victors get to write history, right?

5:41 Uh actually what's interesting I actually

5:43 think that Americans dislike themselves so

5:45 much that we actually heir on the side sometimes of of the enemy.

5:50 you know, 70 million people died in World War II,

5:52 40 million were killed by Germans and Japanese,

5:55 but we focus on the atomic bomb or anyways,

5:58 but it's as if we have decided that the truth

6:02 or the Republican party has decided these people are such acolytes,

6:05 we have such cultists that if we adopt this Roy Con

6:10 of just repeating a lie over and over, never backing down,

6:13 never acknowledging a problem that eventually if you repeat a lie long enough,

6:17 it becomes less uh of a lie.

6:21 And I saw that again with Tucker Carlson when

6:24 he's interviewed by the New York Times and says,

6:26 "Those words never came out of my mouth." And she

6:28 plays it and rather than saying getting angry or embarrassed,

6:32 she just pretends it didn't happen.

6:33 Yeah.

6:34 Like like as if we have absolutely we we have decided

6:39 uh to reject the evidence of our eyes and ears.

6:42 And uh you know for this individual

6:45 to say okay he demanded he demanded unconditional surrender.

6:51 First of that that just shows how stupid these people are.

6:54 There hasn't been unconditional surrender since they

6:57 were on that aircraft carrier in 1945.

7:00 That's not how war is engaged now.

7:01 No one ever actually declares unconditional unconditional surrender.

7:07 Uh I am more empathetic to the notion that all right what is a truce what isn't.

7:12 Unfortunately we have a situation now where it looks

7:15 as if even if there is quote unquote the definition

7:18 of war is in fact met or the standards

7:22 of the semantic division or definition actual definition of war is

7:26 met that they're going to say it doesn't because they

7:28 don't want to trigger the wars power the war powers

7:30 act that after 60 days they're supposed to go

7:31 to Congress and the notion that they hold all the cards.

7:36 I mean, I I don't I understand the president

7:40 trying to be responsive to his party and say,

7:42 "We need to get out of there." But quite frankly,

7:44 right now, he should be saying in a very resolute way,

7:47 I'm going to do whatever the[ __] it takes to open the straight of Hormos.

7:50 And by him saying, we hold all the cards, but we're going to get out soon.

7:55 What are the IRGC's incentives to do anything uh to to open

8:02 the straight when it's clear that he just wants the hell?

8:06 I want out of dodge, but you better do what I'm telling you to do because

8:10 maybe I'll maybe I'll leave 48 hours later than I'm planning,

8:13 but I want to leave, but we're winning.

8:15 We have all the leverage, but we're out of here.

8:18 It's just it's as if none of these folks uh understand basic strategy,

8:24 basic negotiation, basic human behavior.

8:28 And uh at some point I don't

8:33 these things these press conferences have become so comical.

8:36 I think he he's he's become farcical.

8:38 It's just never acknowledge a problem.

8:41 And our military leaders are usually very good

8:44 at giving a sober analysis of what's happened.

8:47 And I think one of the kind of one of the core

8:52 principles of evaluating a situation from the military that I've tried

8:55 to adopt in business is you don't it's very easy to talk

8:59 about the outcome and this is what happened and it dictates the decisions.

9:03 The military says when we reevaluate

9:05 an operation we're and they reevaluate officers decisions.

9:10 Was it the right decision at the time given the information?

9:14 I think it would be entirely reasonable for the administration to say

9:18 at at the time when we started this mil military operation,

9:21 there was a real decent probability that we were going to provide cloud

9:25 cover and encourage the Iranian people

9:26 to rise up and potentially topple this government.

9:30 That did not happen.

9:31 Uh whether you want to call that a mistake

9:33 or an intelligence failure or bad luck,

9:35 but the the atmospherics supported military action here.

9:39 I think they could say that and also acknowledge that it hasn't turned

9:42 out the way they'd hoped and they would have a lot more credibility.

9:46 We have found additional our intelligence group found

9:49 additional nuclear material after we thought we'd eradicated it.

9:51 So, we felt like we needed to go in.

9:53 Instead, it's just like,

9:55 ignore your powers of observation and we're just going to change

9:58 the script based on what we feel would be the right reality

10:02 to justify the current situation and we're in to justify our actions

10:07 and not in any way acknowledge what's actually uh happening here.

10:12 It is it is if we are literally living uh it's not even Orwellian.

10:17 It's basically, and Tucker Carlson is doing that now with that Times interview,

10:21 that the leaders of the Republican party

10:22 are basically saying to Republicans and the cultists,

10:25 "We think you are such[ __] idiots and such cultists that anything we say goes,

10:33 as long as we repeat it and we say it

10:35 with conviction and look you in the eye, it means it's true.

10:39 You can trust.

10:40 You can trust, dear leader." And at what point and and again

10:44 I don't know how does the press I'm curious what your thoughts are.

10:47 Do you have any ideas for how the press should handle Secretary Hegsth?

10:52 I think that you just have to keep

10:53 getting on the record and asking your questions.

10:55 I mean HGth comes off like you said it's

10:59 so comical and like such a caricature where you

11:01 really can't tell if it's him or Colin Jo

11:04 responding to these questions that you're doing your part essentially.

11:10 and you know, you have to continue showing up to the briefings.

11:13 I do think, like I just mentioned, that you don't need that 3:00 a.m.

11:17 phone call to him unless you know that something is actually happening,

11:21 you know, not just to shoot the proverbial breeze.

11:25 Um, but I think that you need to continue to conduct yourself professionally

11:29 to ask the questions that matter and then

11:31 other reporters have to support one another,

11:34 especially the women because he picks on the women more.

11:37 So, if he's going after Caitlyn Collins, you have to defend her, right?

11:41 And you have to knock the question back

11:43 to her to make sure that she can continue, etc.

11:45 But, you know, you you do your part and you do it professionally.

11:49 That's what, you know, I always say if I'm, you know,

11:53 having a conversation that's turning into a fight

11:55 or someone else is acting how I view unprofessionally,

11:58 keep your side of the street as clean as possible and continue

12:02 to hue to the truth because the truth is out there.

12:05 And sometimes the truth also involves saying that you don't know at that moment.

12:09 But these are what we can verify for you.

12:12 Um and that's also the difference between, you know,

12:14 opinion folks and reporters and those lines have gotten massively blurred.

12:19 Um but I want to pick up on what you were saying about,

12:22 you know, if they came to us and said, you know,

12:25 we went in because we thought that this was a moment where, you know,

12:28 it was feasible that the Iranian people would be able to rise up and, you know,

12:31 take over the government.

12:32 That time was back in January.

12:35 Yeah, right.

12:36 That before they went and killed another 30,000 people.

12:39 Arguably, when we did go in and I understand

12:41 that the intelligence was very good on the Israeli side.

12:44 They were able to take out essentially, you know,

12:46 the entire top rung of the IRGC because they

12:49 all went for brunch together or whatever was going on.

12:52 But that wasn't the moment for the Iranian people.

12:55 That was months prior.

12:57 And we missed that boat.

13:00 And it leads to this larger question about how we could

13:05 have misread so many levels of Iran and the Iranian regime.

13:10 Like where are the Iran experts in any of this?

13:13 How did no one think that they would have

13:15 gotten more dug in right as a result of this?

13:19 How come it was not on the front page of every major paper

13:23 or in all of the articles about this that it was going to be obvious

13:27 that the Street of Hormuz was going to be the critical choke point

13:31 in this and that Iran would look at the cards that they were left with and say,

13:34 you know what, we got we've got

13:36 a really important waterway and we're going to close

13:39 it and we're going to charge people for it or just not let anyone get through.

13:43 How was that not a discussion that was happening?

13:46 Because as you see this unfold, you see that that's more and more the case

13:50 that it's quite obvious that they were not discussing

13:52 it as a contingency and certainly you know maybe

13:55 it was the the best kept secret in the world

13:57 but it was a huge mistake to make and then

14:00 a Middle Eastern officials very senior one comes out

14:03 yesterday and says that Iran can economically survive another

14:07 8 to n weeks that's before e total economic collapse.

14:11 So, you know, total economic collapse, that's obviously,

14:14 you know, way down on the scale there.

14:16 But like another eight to nine weeks,

14:18 this was supposed to be everything from two

14:20 days to two weeks to four to 6 weeks.

14:22 The initial projection from the Trump administration

14:24 was that they would break after 13 days.

14:28 And I think also it's just completely misguided

14:30 that all of our focus is on okay,

14:32 what happens to Iran in terms of their economics?

14:36 Our economics are in complete disaster mode.

14:41 So certainly if you're in Europe, but Gas Buddy is now saying that we're missing

14:44 18 million barrels of oil on a daily basis.

14:47 It'll take 65 weeks to get back to gas under $3 a gallon.

14:51 The Chevron CEO comes out and says that physical

14:54 shortages in oil supply are beginning to appear.

14:57 Worldwide energy crisis will go into 2027.

15:00 S&P Global Energy said that.

15:01 And the administration is still getting up there and acting like it's like,

15:05 you know, flipping a switch, right?

15:06 Oh, are the lights on or the lights off?

15:08 Are we in a war with Iran or are we not?

15:10 And it just feels like no one has

15:13 any actual understanding of the mechanics of this war

15:18 on any level from the theology of it down to the brass tax of how oil flows.

15:25 And it feels like no one is thinking about the obvious stuff.

15:29 And I get that I am, you know,

15:30 collecting this from various primary sources and people who know more than me,

15:34 but that's what you're supposed to do when you don't know.

15:37 you're supposed to go to the people who have more information than you.

15:40 And it feels like no one did that.

15:42 No one asked an Iran expert about any of these things because they're all,

15:46 you know, they're online now tweeting away saying like,

15:48 "I could have told you that.

15:50 Obviously, they were going to do that." What you're seeing is a manifestation.

15:54 I I really do think the American public has

15:56 taken so much for granted that's now coming to fruition,

16:00 whether it's freedom of navigation or TSA or air traffic control, what have you.

16:06 There's been so many components of the government that we take for granted.

16:09 And one of the things we've taken for granted

16:11 is our intelligence service and our diplomatic corps.

16:13 There are no more diplomats or all the only litmus tests for whether

16:19 or not you're in this government or survive

16:21 in this government is loyalty, not expertise.

16:24 So that's doubly dangerous because not only do you

16:27 lose the expertise of people who actually understand the situation,

16:31 but you just have a bunch of yesmen telling you what you want to hear.

16:33 And that is effectively kind of the strategy

16:35 or the the playbook for always the down and fall

16:37 of these autocrats is they end up surrounding

16:40 themselves with yesmen and they never get good information.

16:42 And the most recent example of that is uh yeah we'll be in Kev in 3

16:47 to 5 days right and Trump believed that I'm

16:50 sorry and Putin believed that for slip there.

16:53 So, we're seeing all this incompetence uh bubble up.

16:56 To your point, uh I had Admiral Stvitus on the prop

17:00 GP pod and he said that the shock troops,

17:02 the 30,000 younger people who are willing to risk their lives

17:05 and gave their lives to try and overthrow the government,

17:08 those people are dead and there wasn't a reserve of additional

17:11 shock troops once we went in and started started bombing.

17:16 But this is just a total lack a total lack of confidence.

17:22 um a a sense that we don't know what is going on.

17:26 And the only thing I would add to this is that Americans

17:31 in addition I think I I think there needs to be a reckoning

17:35 here and all of it can't be just blaming one party

17:38 or the other or an individual Americans want to spend want to outsource war.

17:45 Uh when George Bush went into Iraq, he told the American public,

17:49 "Oh, we can go to war and cut taxes.

17:51 You don't have to eat dinner and you can eat candy

17:53 and not go to school tomorrow." And the American public believed him.

17:57 And as a result, we now have George Washington,

18:00 George Bush, 7 trillion in deficits.

18:02 Uh George Bush to currently another $33 trillion in deficits.

18:09 And quite frankly, we're very soft.

18:12 I mean, when economic collapse in Iran is

18:15 food shortages and potentially riots in the street,

18:19 we're nowhere near economic collapse.

18:21 I I understand that it's that it's tough on Americans.

18:24 I don't mean to sound like, you know, a lack of empathy,

18:27 but the reality is if people's internet goes down for an hour or AWS goes down,

18:32 the whole nation freaks out.

18:34 We believe that if we just been go from 1 trillion to 1.4 4 trillion

18:38 that that will in that will give

18:40 us limitless ability to throw our weight around.

18:42 No, we need to have the operating system

18:45 and control and cooperation of twothirds of the world economy,

18:48 not one third, by treating the other third, our western allies,

18:50 like[ __] Two, we need to understand asymmetric warfare.

18:54 The battlefield has changed dramatically.

18:56 And three, and this is the hard part, we kind of have to show when we take

19:00 these military actions that we're in it to win it.

19:04 because it doesn't matter if you're a superior army.

19:06 If you have what I've referred to before as a glass jaw,

19:10 it's kind of just hold them out.

19:12 I don't see any incentives at this point unless they can ensure

19:16 that no oil is flowing out or being transported out of Iran.

19:19 And even if it is, do you think the IRGC can is

19:22 is really worried if their general populace goes hungry for a few weeks?

19:27 I I they're claiming eight or nine weeks.

19:31 I don't think there's any[ __] way these people give in in eight or nine weeks.

19:34 But again, I'm not an expert and it's hard to find an expert

19:37 because they were fired because they weren't all sick of fans um to Trump.

19:43 What do you think about the um

19:44 the Iranian foreign minister going to China tomorrow?

19:47 Cuz that seems like a big deal.

19:49 Like we're going next week, right?

19:51 Trump goes the 15th or the 16th.

19:53 So it that feels like in the midst of war or ceasefire

19:57 or whatever we're in like a pretty big deal that they're having,

20:01 you know, a a high-end public meeting.

20:04 It's a giant[ __] you to the US because those two easily

20:06 could have got on a secure phone line and not let it out.

20:09 But him publicly going over there is

20:10 China basically saying that we are empathetic,

20:14 want to have relationships with the IRGC in the midst of a war

20:16 with who used to be a strong trading partner, the United States.

20:21 It's absolutely a it's it's China coing up or at least um

20:26 distancing itself or quite frankly um waving the middle finger at Trump.

20:32 Um that's how I see it.

20:33 How do you see it?

20:34 I do as well.

20:35 And it just also, you know,

20:36 if this is the same person who's

20:38 supposed to be helping with nuclear negotiations,

20:42 it feels like I would feel a lot better, you know,

20:45 if you were in Islamabad having conversations

20:47 with our top real estate developer team, uh, than going and, you know,

20:52 sharing a podium with the Chinese and talking about all

20:56 the various ways in which they cooperate because the that's the IRGC.

21:00 if they have 8 to nine weeks left, maybe that's the case, maybe it isn't.

21:04 But if you have China behind you and they can find

21:06 a way over the course of the next couple of months to be

21:10 able to get that oil out and get more capital in, which

21:13 I imagine the Chinese aren't inviting them over there to say,

21:16 "Hey, we actually don't want to be friends with you

21:18 anymore and we're not going to help you out here." Like,

21:21 seems like a pretty big deal and will lead to them being further dug in.

21:26 Frankly, you know, maybe China has some message of we we

21:29 want this to end and and find a a route out,

21:33 but I imagine that they'll be further emboldened

21:35 as a result of having a public Chinese backing like that.

21:39 Okay, let's take a quick break.

21:40 Stay with us.

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23:00 Welcome back.

23:01 Meanwhile, back at home, there's a different kind of political tugof-war.

23:04 This time inside the Senate, a handful of Republican senators are

23:07 reportedly trying to persuade Pennsylvania Senator

23:09 John Federman to switch parties

23:10 or become an independent caucusing with Republicans.

23:13 Wow.

23:13 This I did.

23:14 I mean, I guess I should have seen this coming.

23:16 I didn't.

23:16 What do you make of this, Jess?

23:18 Well, I don't think it's going to happen.

23:20 Um, I think it's a bit of a pipe dream.

23:22 You know, if Joe Mansion didn't become a Republican,

23:25 I don't think John Federman is going to.

23:27 John Federman is way to the left of even where Mansion was.

23:30 He still votes with the party 91 to 93% of the time.

23:33 The big areas of policy disagreement with the party are definitely on Israel.

23:39 Um, it's the only thing that he puts a suit on for is

23:41 when Netanyahu came um and spoke to a joint session of Congress.

23:45 and he doesn't really have patience for what

23:47 he sees are kind of partisan silly fights.

23:50 Like he thinks, you know, keep the government open,

23:52 you should be able to do your job without shutting down the government, etc.

23:56 Um, but there's a real fissure there.

23:59 He doesn't have friends on the Democratic side.

24:01 His closest friends are Dave McCormack, who's, you know,

24:04 the moderate Republican senator,

24:06 other senator from Pennsylvania, and Katie Britt.

24:08 Um, he hangs out with them and their spouses all the time.

24:13 And Donald Trump has apparently offered him

24:15 a financial incentive to switch parties cuz of course,

24:18 you know, money is all that matters.

24:20 Yeah.

24:21 Well, it's so funny.

24:22 I'm like, the guy's wearing, you know,

24:24 an outfit fully from Modell's or something like that and you think

24:28 that he's going to be sued because you gave him a lot of money.

24:31 Um, I also think like John Federman could not go

24:34 home and face his wife if he did something like this.

24:39 You know, she was an undocumented immigrant.

24:42 super progressive.

24:44 Um, that was always his brand in the primary

24:47 for him to become the nominee for that seat.

24:50 He was up against Connor Lamb,

24:52 who was a congressman and was the more conservative one in the primary.

24:56 You know, John Ferman was to the left of everything.

24:59 So, I don't see it really happening,

25:01 but it makes for some good cloak room drama, I guess.

25:06 Um, and it would have, if it did,

25:08 something like that did happen, it would have an enormous impact.

25:11 I mean, the numbers are so thin and Democrats are

25:14 hopeful to pick up a few seats in the Senate, even in the midterms.

25:18 So, it would be a huge shock.

25:20 Uh, and speaking of fractures inside political coalitions,

25:23 things keep getting a little uncomfortable inside of MAGA.

25:26 Marjorie Taylor Green now says Donald Trump privately warned her that releasing

25:30 the Epstein files could hurt people in his own orbit, specifically at Mara Lago.

25:35 She says she pushed back, arguing the focus should be on the victims.

25:38 Let's take a listen.

25:39 I was in my office in the Rayburn building and I got

25:43 a phone call from the president and he was at the White

25:46 House and he wanted to talk to me about the dis

25:49 discharge petition that I'd signed my name on and he said,

25:52 "Marjorie, you're going to have to take your name off that discharge petition.

25:57 The these we can't let this is a hoax.

26:00 We can't carry this.

26:01 This is a hoax.

26:02 It's a Democrat hoax and we've got to just put this away and stop

26:06 doing this." this and he said my friends are going to get hurt.

26:11 He said his friends would get hurt if we release the Epstein files.

26:16 I just I'm still just not there on her.

26:19 I get it that she's saying all the right stuff.

26:22 Not the crazy alien stuff that she says,

26:24 but like you know this and she had a good

26:26 line about how her TDS is in Trump derangement syndrome.

26:29 It's Trump disillusionment syndrome, I think.

26:32 But

26:35 disappointment disappointment.

26:35 Um, but I don't know.

26:37 I I'm all for a big tent.

26:39 My tent feels a little smaller than Marjorie Taylor Green.

26:43 How are you?

26:44 How What do you What do you think she's after?

26:48 Big 10.

26:48 I hope she's mauled and eaten by a lion.

26:51 Oh, there we go.

26:55 Kidding.

26:55 No calls for violence.

26:56 My response is the same response I have

26:59 whenever I get a call from a Democratic senator

27:02 or a billionaire business person who says they want

27:05 to talk to me about my ideas about young men.

27:07 I say the same thing and then there's an awkward

27:09 silence and then we laugh and I say the following.

27:11 Oh, you're running for president.

27:14 I'm like, I I'm I'm an interesting guy.

27:16 I've got some interesting ideas, but the reason you're on the phone

27:18 with me right now is you're running for president.

27:20 You want to come on the pod?

27:22 She's running for president and and she's

27:26 not her and Tucker Carlson have have identified

27:30 the mother of all if the straight of horos as wide as the Pacific Ocean.

27:35 This is the lane that these people see and they're smart politically.

27:39 Supposedly the odds on favorites are Trump and Vance.

27:42 Except here's the problem.

27:44 Trump is[ __] Chernobyl right after the reactor exploded.

27:49 And anyone around that reactor for any extended period

27:52 of time is going to die a death of political leukemia.

27:57 Nobody gets out of his orbit alive.

27:59 He doesn't give a[ __] about the party.

28:02 He doesn't give a[ __] about Vance or Rubio.

28:04 He's such a narcissist.

28:06 I'm fairly certain that he probably doesn't want a Republican to win.

28:09 So he can blame it on he can say

28:11 I'm the only guy that could win for the Republicans.

28:14 who who coming out of the previous administration has done really well

28:18 politically like who's I got was great to be near the president.

28:22 He is radioactive.

28:25 Vance and Rubio do not get out of this alive.

28:28 They die a painful they die they die a painful death.

28:33 What the lane is is someone who

28:36 has conservative values supported Trump disillusioned anti-war anti-Israel.

28:42 That is a huge lane and I think she and Tucker Carlson both see that lane.

28:49 All of a sudden she's found, you know,

28:52 conservative values and she wants to be she's trying to stay on the stage

28:56 and I believe she's planning a run for president as is Tucker Carlson who

29:00 all of a sudden is embracing and defending Nick Fuentes because he realizes

29:04 that the manosphere is really important to whoever

29:07 eventually is going to be the Republican nomination.

29:10 But they have all identified this lane of I am

29:13 for the values that Trump initially adhered to in his first term.

29:18 I am against these forever wars.

29:20 I am in favor of releasing the full Epstein files.

29:24 I am anti-Israel, anti-Netanyahu, but you can trust me.

29:28 I'm a hardcore conservative family values Republican.

29:33 Uh and Donald Trump has strayed.

29:36 There is an enormous lane for that right now.

29:39 and the majority of people in elected office

29:41 that he has not already alienated or pissed off are

29:44 afraid that he will go after them and contaminate

29:48 them or just shut them down or what have you.

29:51 Um so yeah, she's she's thirsty.

29:53 She wants to stay in the news.

29:55 She wants to stay present.

29:57 Uh but my sense is someone has talked her into believing

29:59 that she's a viable candidate for the Republican nomination.

30:03 Your thoughts?

30:04 I wouldn't doubt that that you know she's thinking about it

30:07 or at least having you know some sort of life after Congress.

30:12 But I do think that Trump will still wield more power

30:16 in the 2028 landscape than somebody who's coming out and saying things

30:20 like if I revealed my text messages with Donald Trump I'd

30:24 probably be in jail or this guy totally sold us all out.

30:29 It's one thing to have a couple of gripes with him,

30:32 but to generally still be in the tent.

30:34 I don't know about someone who's in like

30:37 a complete warfare mode because he will still,

30:41 even if the base gets a bit smaller, it's usually what 25 to 30%,

30:46 let's say it's down to even 18 to 25% or something like that.

30:51 That's still a lot of people that he'd

30:53 be able to command essentially to say like,

30:57 you know, I understand you you want change.

31:00 Maybe you don't want my number, too, cuz you know, he's not as good as me.

31:03 And I think that's a very valid argument to make.

31:06 You know, Trump is the genuine article and JD Vance is a shape shifter who's

31:10 done everything from call him Hitler to say

31:12 he's the greatest thing in the entire world.

31:15 But I feel like he's going to stop at nothing to destroy

31:18 people who have gone who are going so hard against him.

31:21 I think it's a decent bet.

31:22 It's very hard for people to imagine themselves

31:26 because of survival instinct that they'll ever actually die.

31:29 There's a couple things I just never thought would happen.

31:32 My dog Zoe, I could never imagine her dying for some reason.

31:35 I couldn't even envision it.

31:36 Even when she got sick, I just couldn't actually wrap my head around the notion

31:38 that this dog might actually die at some point.

31:40 When we had our first child,

31:42 I could never actually imagine my partner's bot breaking.

31:46 I just I just thought her stomach was going to continue

31:48 to grow and we were never actually going to have a baby.

31:50 I couldn't even I couldn't envision it.

31:52 I think the American

31:53 I can guarantee you that all she thought about was not being pregnant though.

31:58 Getting that thing out of me.

32:00 Actually, I'm not exaggerating.

32:02 She was the most beautiful pregnant woman in the world.

32:05 She loved being pregnant.

32:06 She would walk into a restaurant.

32:08 I'm not exaggerating.

32:09 people would stop eating dinner and come over

32:12 to her and tell her how beautiful she was.

32:13 And she loved the attention.

32:15 Anyways, I think the American public doesn't recognize the actuarial

32:20 chance that Donald Trump doesn't make it through office.

32:23 He is an obese 79y old man, which according to actuarial tables means

32:28 there's about a 12% annual mortality rate.

32:31 So in the next 2 and 1/2 years, there's about a one in three chance he dies.

32:36 So the overunder on carving out that lane

32:39 and the fact that he gets even more and more unpopular.

32:43 I don't know.

32:43 I think I let it this way.

32:45 There's much there's much bigger long shots.

32:47 It's absolutely clear to me Tucker Carlson is running for president

32:50 and I think that uh Marjorie Taylor Green is lining up and thinking,

32:54 well, I'll I'll stay visible.

32:56 Maybe I'll be someone's VP pick.

32:59 But she's she is oh my gosh, are these people are these people thirsty?

33:04 It's just so clear they're lining up for something.

33:07 Okay, let's take a quick break.

33:08 Stay with us.

33:12 Welcome back.

33:13 Let's zoom out from political drama to policy.

33:15 There's a pretty notable shift happening on AI.

33:18 After years of pushing against regulation of artificial intelligence,

33:20 the White House is now considering introducing

33:22 a government oversight process around new AI models.

33:26 Jess, the administration has long held

33:27 the stance that AI shouldn't be regulated,

33:29 that it would just hold progress back.

33:31 Uh what do you think has changed?

33:34 Nothing.

33:34 I think it I think they just know that they're supposed

33:36 to say that and then they're not going to do anything.

33:39 I mean, if you look at any White House event,

33:41 it's all tech titans who all have a vested interest in not ever being regulated.

33:48 I do think it is the most amazing opportunity

33:51 for Democrats especially um because they're not in power right

33:57 now but even sensible Republicans because if you look

34:00 at people's level of concern with AI massive I mean

34:04 these town halls about data centers are I mean

34:08 you would think that people were saying I'm I'm going

34:11 to come I'm going to burn down your house like

34:12 that's how extreme uh the the reaction to what's coming,

34:18 whatever the future looks like is for these folks.

34:21 And um I saw a poll, it was about 50% of people didn't know who they thought was

34:27 better to regulate AI or to deal with whatever AI is going

34:30 to bring for workingclass people up to white collar folks where it

34:34 seems like some of the effects could actually felt um the strongest.

34:38 But I want you to talk about this because you're way better on AI than I am.

34:42 No, I thought I think you're exactly right.

34:43 I think that delay and obuscation is kind of the go-to strategy.

34:49 Uh it's an enormous opportunity for Democrats

34:52 to outline fairly basic regulation, right?

34:54 Age gating on character AI,

34:57 60-day hold period for testing amongst a group of uh AI academics,

35:03 economists, technologists to beta test the[ __] out

35:06 of something as opposed to Dario Elmade saying,

35:08 "I'm only going out to 40 customers because

35:10 I'm worried about it." any new product release,

35:12 any new LLM has to be I mean, if it takes if it takes the FDA 10 years,

35:17 if the FDA can delay a drug's introduction to the market

35:20 by a decade to make sure that it's safe,

35:22 there's no reason why the government can't ask uh every technology

35:26 company in AI to let them play with the model and test

35:29 the[ __] out of it and bang it every which way but loose

35:33 for 60 to 90 days and then have regulations around um weapons,

35:39 self-healing weapons,

35:40 invasion of private privacy having it being used for surveillance.

35:44 There's a really interesting argument that someone made that kind

35:47 of struck me as being very salient and that is

35:50 according to these guys AI is more powerful

35:55 and a greater existential threat than any technology including nuclear weapons.

36:02 And so the question is all right well

36:04 we don't let private ventureback companies build nuclear weapons.

36:08 Why at all are we letting private companies build AI?

36:13 Now, I don't believe we should make it make all of these things

36:16 government companies because I do think there's a lot of economic value here.

36:19 We want to stay competitive.

36:20 The private sector is more innovative than the public sector.

36:24 But there is if there were in my view there is a dramatic need

36:30 and a sensible need for pretty serious

36:33 formation of an agency of very intelligent people.

36:37 someone, you know, that someone reminiscent of the EPA or the FDA.

36:40 And everybody doesn't like regulation until they realize we have no[

36:44 __] experts to tell us what to do and planes start

36:47 getting backed up and our food supply goes bad or no

36:50 one can tell us what the[ __] is going on in Iran.

36:52 Folks, our government operates on the whole really well.

36:56 There needs to be an agency that uh regulates these things and some

37:00 common sense laws around um how AI is used and how we

37:06 can how we can kind of quite frankly just beta test the[ __]

37:09 out of it and make sure that it doesn't get turned against us.

37:14 Uh and just politically a Democrat who was interested

37:18 in me Gavin News should be all over this and they

37:21 have proposed some legislation but he should be he's

37:24 gone from the all caps great social media guy.

37:27 he should pivot to becoming and there's an opportunity here for Basher Shapiro

37:31 to say you know what I actually understand this technology or at least

37:35 my staff does and I've come out with a 20 or 30 page

37:40 you know AI regulation manifesto that's summarized in one page such that I

37:45 can go on CNN and say the you know Jake these are

37:47 the three top points you know Brett Bayer these are these are the basic

37:51 three points around some sort of regulation

37:53 because the first person that demonstrates

37:56 that they sort understand AI gets the attribute that never goes out of style.

38:00 Youth, they will look young.

38:02 They will look like, "Oh,

38:03 that person understands these scary technologies that I don't understand,

38:08 but I believe somebody needs to understand because clearly in Washington,

38:13 they've gotten a reputation for like, okay, you know, I understand fax machines.

38:17 I have my assistant print out my emails, right?

38:20 I don't know how to clean my CPAP.

38:22 I know technology for me is the wheels my oxygen tank rolls on.

38:27 That was probably a little much.

38:28 Anyways, I like rhetorical flourish like that.

38:31 I think it really hit home.

38:33 This is a lane for a Democrat to come out and say I really I'm I understand AI.

38:39 I don't understand this is for example this would be

38:43 a great lane and a great talk track for Mayor Pete.

38:46 He's young.

38:47 He's smart.

38:48 He he has incredible ability to distill very complicated

38:51 issues down to a series of very digestible talking points.

38:55 He should he should absolutely I don't What

38:57 the[ __] is Mayor Pete doing right now?

38:59 What is He's doing these Well,

39:00 he's he's like the number one requested surrogate for all of these Democrats.

39:05 He's all over the country holding these amazing events and town halls.

39:10 Um I mean I Okay, but does he have an actual job?

39:13 What's his title?

39:14 How does how does he make money?

39:15 What's he doing right now?

39:15 Do you have any idea?

39:16 Substack maybe.

39:18 No, I mean he is on sub.

39:19 I mean he's he should be the head of he should be

39:22 the head of a tank or a political center somewhere.

39:25 Anyway, my point is probably has a job I don't know about.

39:27 My point is a really big opportunity for him would be to be

39:31 the politician who really understands technology

39:33 and specifically AI who could say

39:35 all right this is a tension around data centers and this kind

39:39 of leads into our next story around incremente quality and and the met

39:42 ball but data centers have become the flash point for AI because

39:47 people are saying okay they're building this building over there I know it's

39:51 going to make someone rich who I don't know I don't even

39:54 get to participate if I had the money because these stocks aren't public.

39:57 All I've heard is that my electric electricity prices are going to go

40:00 up 12% and supposedly this[ __] is really bad for the environment.

40:04 And it's not even that that has them angry.

40:07 It's it's a symbol.

40:08 It's it's something they can throw a tomato around around income inequality.

40:13 And speaking of income inequality,

40:14 this is going to be our segue to ending on something a little lighter,

40:18 but it's still political in its own way.

40:20 This year's MetGala didn't just belong to fashion in Hollywood.

40:24 It belonged to Silicon Valley.

40:25 The event raised a record 42 million powered in large part by tech

40:29 money with Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez

40:31 Bezos leading the charge as top sponsors.

40:34 What did you make of the Met Ball?

40:37 I have to say I'm not like a total

40:40 dieard that you know is waiting for the red carpet.

40:43 I do I perused through I liked a lot of the outfits.

40:46 It was interesting to see Blake Lively out there

40:49 because the Justin Baldoni lawsuit it got settled yesterday.

40:52 I don't know who was not there because of the Amazon influence.

40:57 There's swirl that that's why Zenia didn't go this year um you know

41:02 as a kind of push back especially

41:04 because of ICE detention centers and things like

41:06 that um visav Amazon but it feels like a metaphor for what's going

41:11 on in every part of our society

41:15 that the tech overlords are now controlling everything.

41:19 And I have nothing against Lauren Sanchez Bezos.

41:23 It seems like she's a pretty nice person and nice woman.

41:27 Yeah.

41:28 And you know, she also ridiculous.

41:30 Also also ridiculously[ __] tonedeaf writing writing gabbing an article

41:35 in New York Times talking about how amazing her life is.

41:38 I would not have done that personally.

41:40 Uh what Albert Brooks said,

41:42 "Keep it." You remember that great line with William Hurt where he says,

41:45 "What happens when your reality exceeds

41:46 your wildest dreams?" And Albert Brooks responds, "Keep it to yourself." Yeah.

41:50 Some quiet.

41:51 She seems like I met her.

41:52 She seems very nice.

41:53 All of her friends, everyone that knows her says she's lovely.

41:56 Just have a[ __] amazing life.

41:57 Kind of, you know, a little bit below the radar.

42:00 People need don't need to understand how you've married.

42:03 Anyways, uh I'm not No, no, no.

42:06 Um it's a conversation.

42:08 We're not interrupting.

42:09 Um, but I don't have that gene in me

42:14 where I crave being around celebrities like that.

42:19 Like I just I don't get I mean I haven't been invited to the Met Gala,

42:23 so maybe it would change if I were,

42:24 but I thought Mom Donnie had the perfect response where he was like, "I'm good.

42:28 I'm going to focus on workingclass people, and I love the Met.

42:31 I'm glad that they're going to raise a lot of money.

42:33 It's important, etc.,

42:34 but like that's not where the working-class mayor is needed.

42:39 Um, that seems like a good response to it and obviously, you know,

42:42 setting a difference with Mayor Adams,

42:45 but I I would feel like such a loser, right,

42:48 if I was just the person that was footing

42:50 the bill for the thing and just staring at Beyonce

42:55 and trying to figure out what her outfit signifies

42:57 about her next album that's to come and, you know,

43:00 trying to, you know, pick the meaning out of Lady Gaga's outfit, etc.

43:04 But like you should when you have that much money should have

43:08 a little bit more self-awareness for who you are in all of this.

43:11 And standing next to Nicole Kidman on the red carpet

43:15 is just not it's not the best look to me personally.

43:19 Yeah.

43:19 It feels like when you're by votes to be homecoming queen or king.

43:24 Yeah.

43:24 Uh, I said on Pivot,

43:25 I thought it was the perfect marriage because Vogue and, you know,

43:30 these magazines have just too much RZ and not enough

43:34 money and Bezos has too much money and not enough RZ.

43:39 But it was really interesting.

43:40 It became a politicized event.

43:42 I don't know how to say this without sounding like a douchebag,

43:44 so I'm just going to say it.

43:45 I got invited and it fell on the same I was in, by the I

43:48 don't know if you know this, I was in Germany today in Hamburg, Germany.

43:51 And I thought, "Okay, I can go to Germany, eat sausage, drink[ __] amazing beer,

43:58 and hang out." I I spoke at Online Marketing Rockstars, and I love the event.

44:03 It was This was such an easy call.

44:07 I mean, it doesn't seem like that much fun to me.

44:10 It seems like Instagram, but even more self-absorbed.

44:14 And also I do think and it comes back to data centers.

44:18 I do think these folks don't realize that kind of a let them eat cake party.

44:27 It's just sort of in bad taste right now.

44:29 You know, it's one thing to celebrate fashion and young designers.

44:32 I get it.

44:33 But to have it sponsored by Bezos at this moment is just not a good idea.

44:38 I think Anna Winter, quite frankly, I think she[ __] up here.

44:41 I think they should have figured out a way to keep it more authentic

44:45 as opposed to having whatever the fourth

44:47 richest man in the world basically sponsor it.

44:49 The other thing I don't like just to piss off progressives the, you know,

44:54 I'm seeing all these Tik Toks and Instagrams of how genius it

44:57 was to have all these Amazon workers beaming things saying, "I'm a worker.

45:00 You should be throwing this party for me." I don't like that either.

45:04 I I think you I think fine, don't go write an op-ed,

45:08 but don't try and[ __] up their event.

45:10 Let them have their let them have their party.

45:14 Um I don't The whole thing if there's a year

45:18 where this thing jumped the shark, it was this year.

45:22 It wasn't about the fashion.

45:24 It wasn't about people.

45:25 It wasn't about looking fabulous.

45:26 It wasn't about New York.

45:27 In New York, this is a great event for New York.

45:30 It's a great event for the fashion industry.

45:33 And quite frankly, it just came across as tonedeaf.

45:37 and the Bezos family.

45:39 You know, Jeff and Lauren's involvement in it just uh quite frankly,

45:46 that was a that was a whiff.

45:48 It's one thing for him to be invited.

45:50 He's a successful guy.

45:51 She's a beautiful woman.

45:53 They're in the midst of a midlife crisis that they'll

45:55 grow out of in about 40 or 50 years.

45:57 I say they lean into it.

45:58 I'm kind of here for it.

45:59 But to have them sponsoring this thing, it felt like a miss.

46:04 It felt like it felt like someone close to the Bezos need to say, you know,

46:09 it's like when my father my father said to me something,

46:12 a couple things stuck with me.

46:13 He said, "The key to happiness in America is to be

46:15 rich but anonymous." They need to be a little bit more anonymous.

46:19 They need to fly under the radar.

46:21 And there is opportunity for you to give to things without

46:25 your name and certainly your physical presence plastered all over everything.

46:30 It happens all the time.

46:31 They could have just given the money.

46:32 Yeah.

46:32 They could have just said,

46:33 "How much money do we need to give to make sure we get invited?" I mean,

46:35 I, you know, I wouldn't be above that.

46:37 It's like, okay, you want to get invited to something cool,

46:40 you got to give money.

46:41 That's no different than buying tickets to World Cup,

46:43 which by the way are ridiculously[ __] expensive.

46:47 Yeah.

46:47 Can't even like, you know, Fox has it and it is everyone wants to go.

46:53 It is like the most requested set of tickets um that we've ever had.

46:58 I want to go to a Mexico City game.

47:00 That's Oh, that would be amazing.

47:02 That would absolutely be amazing.

47:03 But it's not not in the cards for me.

47:05 On the cards or in the cards?

47:06 I never know.

47:07 Not in the cards.

47:08 Yeah.

47:09 In the cards.

47:09 Yeah.

47:10 All right.

47:10 Well, let's leave it there, Jess.

47:11 If anybody wants to take us, we we we don't want to go to the Met Ball,

47:15 but we will absolutely uh do whatever you want.

47:19 Uh and we're we're both fun.

47:21 We both like to drink.

47:22 Actually, I don't know if you like to drink.

47:24 One of us likes to drink.

47:25 One drink.

47:26 That's all I can handle.

47:27 But I'm a great time after that one drink for like an hour.

47:31 You'll look much better on someone's arm than me.

47:34 But let's any anyone wants to take us to to World Cup, we're in.

47:40 Yeah.

47:39 Yeah.

47:39 There you go.

47:40 We're absolutely in.

47:41 Before we go,

47:43 a reminder, the Raging Moderates is on Substack as part of ProfG Plus.

47:46 If you sign up for ProfG Plus,

47:48 not only will you get access to adree episodes and exclusive live streams,

47:51 you'll also get a way to connect with me, Jess, and the community.

47:54 Plus, you can get the Raging Moderates newsletter,

47:56 the Monday Rage in your inbox every week.

47:59 So, come join us.

48:00 Sign up at raging moderates.propgmedia.com.

48:03 Also, we're making a few changes to the show.

48:05 You'll be getting more of the two

48:07 of us with longer episodes dropping Monday, Tuesday,

48:09 and Thursday afternoons in addition to all

48:11 the fun and rage that's happening on Substack.

48:14 That's all for this episode.

48:16 Uh, thanks so much for joining us today, Jess.

48:18 I will see you on Thursday.

48:20 On Thursday.