Trump and Hegseth Spout LIES and CONTRADICTIONS on Iran
Raging Moderates
0:04 Welcome, Raging Moderates.
0:05 I'm Scott Galloway
0:06 and I'm Jessica Tarla.
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0:18 All right, let's get into it.
0:20 With mixed messages coming out of Washington and Tran,
0:23 it's still unclear whether the ceasefire between the US
0:25 and Iran is actually holding or just simply unraveling.
0:29 The Trump administration privately warned Iran ahead of the new
0:32 operation to escort ships through the Strait of Homos,
0:35 urging them not to interfere.
0:37 But despite that warning, Iran launched attacks on US Navy ships,
0:41 commercial vessels, and even targets in the UAE.
0:44 US officials are now downplaying those strikes
0:46 as below the threshold of restarting the war with Defense Secretary Pete Hexath
0:52 insisting the ceasefire is still intact for now.
0:56 Let's listen to Pete Hexath's press conference this morning.
0:58 On the first day of this conflict,
1:00 President Trump addressed the Iranian people directly and said,
1:04 "When we're finished, take over your government.
1:07 It'll be yours to take." And then on the seventh day of the conflict,
1:12 in a truth social post, the president said,
1:14 quote, "There will be no deal with Iran except all caps
1:18 exclamation mark unconditional surrender." What happens
1:23 to that pledge to the Iranians?
1:25 And when did the president decide
1:27 to capitulate on his demand for unconditional surrender?
1:31 Well, James, I wouldn't uh I wouldn't.
1:34 You started out nicely, but you ended exactly where we knew you would end.
1:38 Uh the president hasn't capitulated on anything.
1:40 Uh he holds the cards.
1:42 We remain the we maintain the upper hand,
1:44 and project freedom only strengthens that hand.
1:46 And so he will ensure that whatever deal is made or whatever end state is
1:50 reached uh creates uh ensuring that Iran never
1:54 has a nuclear weapon which is a number
1:55 one and he's been focused on that and the deal and discussions are centered
1:58 on that and what the Iranian people take
2:00 advantage of after the fact is up to them.
2:03 All the cards I mean I'm late to this because everyone's been making
2:05 fun of the UNO post uh for a couple of days now but I'll
2:09 throw my hat in the ring and say you don't want all the cards
2:11 when you're playing Uno and the White House shouldn't have posted that meme.
2:16 I'd laugh if it wasn't so serious and it
2:19 feels like this is happening in suspended reality, right?
2:23 And like we're just all going about
2:25 our lives here and dealing with the dayto-day,
2:27 what the guys what the gas prices are, what's going on with our families, etc.
2:32 But there's still a war going on no matter what they say.
2:35 I don't know the rules as well as other people, I'm sure.
2:39 But I don't think that the ceasefire timeout situation is working
2:44 in so far as what even Republican representatives think about the conflict.
2:48 They still think we're on the clock and that maybe
2:50 they should get asked um if we are to continue.
2:54 And I understand that ceasefires are messy things.
2:57 And also, you know, you can have rogue actors who are continuing,
3:01 let's say, when even the folks at the top are saying a pause.
3:04 But this isn't one or two missiles that have been fired.
3:07 Um what's happening to the UAE is really serious.
3:11 Uh Modi has said something.
3:12 The prime minister of India,
3:14 Israel has said something and Israel would be thrilled, right,
3:17 if we could get back into this at the same
3:20 level that we were before the ceasefire went into place.
3:24 Give press conferences.
3:25 I guess more transparency in quotes is better than not.
3:29 But you're not getting any good information out of any of this.
3:31 And I know it is an impossible ask,
3:35 but I feel like reporters should stop calling Trump.
3:38 And I get it.
3:39 It feels like this incredible access and it
3:41 is amazing that he actually just picks
3:44 up the phone no matter the hour and we'll kind of shoot the breeze with you.
3:47 But he's just feeding propaganda to these reporters and then they're reporting
3:51 it as news which affects markets certainly affects all of our algorithms.
3:57 you know, they're getting a huge amount of hits off off of it,
4:00 which is what they want, and how they stay employed, etc.
4:03 But he's just lying to everybody about the ceasefire,
4:07 about how many cards we have,
4:10 who's in control, what's going on with negotiations.
4:13 Um, so probably falling on deaf ears,
4:15 but every time that I see a report or another tweet like,
4:18 "I just got off the phone with President Trump
4:20 and he told me a big bunch of bullshit." Yeah,
4:23 that's all he's got right now is a big bunch of[ __]
4:27 And you have to use some degree of judgment about it, right?
4:31 You report the news,
4:32 but then also say the facts on the ground indicate that this is not the case.
4:36 In my high school, because of the timing,
4:39 they thought it would be really interesting.
4:40 Everyone was reading the book 1984 because it was uh almost 1984.
4:45 and you read it and you know I
4:48 wasn't exactly a mindful thoughtful person back then
4:52 but I do remember reading 1984 and thinking just
4:56 the way the teachers were so serious about it
5:00 and that there's something here there's something meaningful here
5:05 that we need to be mindful of and there's
5:07 a couple passages in there that I think are
5:10 relevant to today's um situation specifically uh the Republican party.
5:16 And there's a quote in there,
5:18 the party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.
5:21 It was their final most essential command.
5:24 And another related passage,
5:26 if all others accepted the lie which the party imposed,
5:29 if all records told the same tale,
5:32 then the lie passed into history and became truth.
5:36 And there is some, you know,
5:37 there a lot of people say the the victors get to write history, right?
5:41 Uh actually what's interesting I actually
5:43 think that Americans dislike themselves so
5:45 much that we actually heir on the side sometimes of of the enemy.
5:50 you know, 70 million people died in World War II,
5:52 40 million were killed by Germans and Japanese,
5:55 but we focus on the atomic bomb or anyways,
5:58 but it's as if we have decided that the truth
6:02 or the Republican party has decided these people are such acolytes,
6:05 we have such cultists that if we adopt this Roy Con
6:10 of just repeating a lie over and over, never backing down,
6:13 never acknowledging a problem that eventually if you repeat a lie long enough,
6:17 it becomes less uh of a lie.
6:21 And I saw that again with Tucker Carlson when
6:24 he's interviewed by the New York Times and says,
6:26 "Those words never came out of my mouth." And she
6:28 plays it and rather than saying getting angry or embarrassed,
6:32 she just pretends it didn't happen.
6:33 Yeah.
6:34 Like like as if we have absolutely we we have decided
6:39 uh to reject the evidence of our eyes and ears.
6:42 And uh you know for this individual
6:45 to say okay he demanded he demanded unconditional surrender.
6:51 First of that that just shows how stupid these people are.
6:54 There hasn't been unconditional surrender since they
6:57 were on that aircraft carrier in 1945.
7:00 That's not how war is engaged now.
7:01 No one ever actually declares unconditional unconditional surrender.
7:07 Uh I am more empathetic to the notion that all right what is a truce what isn't.
7:12 Unfortunately we have a situation now where it looks
7:15 as if even if there is quote unquote the definition
7:18 of war is in fact met or the standards
7:22 of the semantic division or definition actual definition of war is
7:26 met that they're going to say it doesn't because they
7:28 don't want to trigger the wars power the war powers
7:30 act that after 60 days they're supposed to go
7:31 to Congress and the notion that they hold all the cards.
7:36 I mean, I I don't I understand the president
7:40 trying to be responsive to his party and say,
7:42 "We need to get out of there." But quite frankly,
7:44 right now, he should be saying in a very resolute way,
7:47 I'm going to do whatever the[ __] it takes to open the straight of Hormos.
7:50 And by him saying, we hold all the cards, but we're going to get out soon.
7:55 What are the IRGC's incentives to do anything uh to to open
8:02 the straight when it's clear that he just wants the hell?
8:06 I want out of dodge, but you better do what I'm telling you to do because
8:10 maybe I'll maybe I'll leave 48 hours later than I'm planning,
8:13 but I want to leave, but we're winning.
8:15 We have all the leverage, but we're out of here.
8:18 It's just it's as if none of these folks uh understand basic strategy,
8:24 basic negotiation, basic human behavior.
8:28 And uh at some point I don't
8:33 these things these press conferences have become so comical.
8:36 I think he he's he's become farcical.
8:38 It's just never acknowledge a problem.
8:41 And our military leaders are usually very good
8:44 at giving a sober analysis of what's happened.
8:47 And I think one of the kind of one of the core
8:52 principles of evaluating a situation from the military that I've tried
8:55 to adopt in business is you don't it's very easy to talk
8:59 about the outcome and this is what happened and it dictates the decisions.
9:03 The military says when we reevaluate
9:05 an operation we're and they reevaluate officers decisions.
9:10 Was it the right decision at the time given the information?
9:14 I think it would be entirely reasonable for the administration to say
9:18 at at the time when we started this mil military operation,
9:21 there was a real decent probability that we were going to provide cloud
9:25 cover and encourage the Iranian people
9:26 to rise up and potentially topple this government.
9:30 That did not happen.
9:31 Uh whether you want to call that a mistake
9:33 or an intelligence failure or bad luck,
9:35 but the the atmospherics supported military action here.
9:39 I think they could say that and also acknowledge that it hasn't turned
9:42 out the way they'd hoped and they would have a lot more credibility.
9:46 We have found additional our intelligence group found
9:49 additional nuclear material after we thought we'd eradicated it.
9:51 So, we felt like we needed to go in.
9:53 Instead, it's just like,
9:55 ignore your powers of observation and we're just going to change
9:58 the script based on what we feel would be the right reality
10:02 to justify the current situation and we're in to justify our actions
10:07 and not in any way acknowledge what's actually uh happening here.
10:12 It is it is if we are literally living uh it's not even Orwellian.
10:17 It's basically, and Tucker Carlson is doing that now with that Times interview,
10:21 that the leaders of the Republican party
10:22 are basically saying to Republicans and the cultists,
10:25 "We think you are such[ __] idiots and such cultists that anything we say goes,
10:33 as long as we repeat it and we say it
10:35 with conviction and look you in the eye, it means it's true.
10:39 You can trust.
10:40 You can trust, dear leader." And at what point and and again
10:44 I don't know how does the press I'm curious what your thoughts are.
10:47 Do you have any ideas for how the press should handle Secretary Hegsth?
10:52 I think that you just have to keep
10:53 getting on the record and asking your questions.
10:55 I mean HGth comes off like you said it's
10:59 so comical and like such a caricature where you
11:01 really can't tell if it's him or Colin Jo
11:04 responding to these questions that you're doing your part essentially.
11:10 and you know, you have to continue showing up to the briefings.
11:13 I do think, like I just mentioned, that you don't need that 3:00 a.m.
11:17 phone call to him unless you know that something is actually happening,
11:21 you know, not just to shoot the proverbial breeze.
11:25 Um, but I think that you need to continue to conduct yourself professionally
11:29 to ask the questions that matter and then
11:31 other reporters have to support one another,
11:34 especially the women because he picks on the women more.
11:37 So, if he's going after Caitlyn Collins, you have to defend her, right?
11:41 And you have to knock the question back
11:43 to her to make sure that she can continue, etc.
11:45 But, you know, you you do your part and you do it professionally.
11:49 That's what, you know, I always say if I'm, you know,
11:53 having a conversation that's turning into a fight
11:55 or someone else is acting how I view unprofessionally,
11:58 keep your side of the street as clean as possible and continue
12:02 to hue to the truth because the truth is out there.
12:05 And sometimes the truth also involves saying that you don't know at that moment.
12:09 But these are what we can verify for you.
12:12 Um and that's also the difference between, you know,
12:14 opinion folks and reporters and those lines have gotten massively blurred.
12:19 Um but I want to pick up on what you were saying about,
12:22 you know, if they came to us and said, you know,
12:25 we went in because we thought that this was a moment where, you know,
12:28 it was feasible that the Iranian people would be able to rise up and, you know,
12:31 take over the government.
12:32 That time was back in January.
12:35 Yeah, right.
12:36 That before they went and killed another 30,000 people.
12:39 Arguably, when we did go in and I understand
12:41 that the intelligence was very good on the Israeli side.
12:44 They were able to take out essentially, you know,
12:46 the entire top rung of the IRGC because they
12:49 all went for brunch together or whatever was going on.
12:52 But that wasn't the moment for the Iranian people.
12:55 That was months prior.
12:57 And we missed that boat.
13:00 And it leads to this larger question about how we could
13:05 have misread so many levels of Iran and the Iranian regime.
13:10 Like where are the Iran experts in any of this?
13:13 How did no one think that they would have
13:15 gotten more dug in right as a result of this?
13:19 How come it was not on the front page of every major paper
13:23 or in all of the articles about this that it was going to be obvious
13:27 that the Street of Hormuz was going to be the critical choke point
13:31 in this and that Iran would look at the cards that they were left with and say,
13:34 you know what, we got we've got
13:36 a really important waterway and we're going to close
13:39 it and we're going to charge people for it or just not let anyone get through.
13:43 How was that not a discussion that was happening?
13:46 Because as you see this unfold, you see that that's more and more the case
13:50 that it's quite obvious that they were not discussing
13:52 it as a contingency and certainly you know maybe
13:55 it was the the best kept secret in the world
13:57 but it was a huge mistake to make and then
14:00 a Middle Eastern officials very senior one comes out
14:03 yesterday and says that Iran can economically survive another
14:07 8 to n weeks that's before e total economic collapse.
14:11 So, you know, total economic collapse, that's obviously,
14:14 you know, way down on the scale there.
14:16 But like another eight to nine weeks,
14:18 this was supposed to be everything from two
14:20 days to two weeks to four to 6 weeks.
14:22 The initial projection from the Trump administration
14:24 was that they would break after 13 days.
14:28 And I think also it's just completely misguided
14:30 that all of our focus is on okay,
14:32 what happens to Iran in terms of their economics?
14:36 Our economics are in complete disaster mode.
14:41 So certainly if you're in Europe, but Gas Buddy is now saying that we're missing
14:44 18 million barrels of oil on a daily basis.
14:47 It'll take 65 weeks to get back to gas under $3 a gallon.
14:51 The Chevron CEO comes out and says that physical
14:54 shortages in oil supply are beginning to appear.
14:57 Worldwide energy crisis will go into 2027.
15:00 S&P Global Energy said that.
15:01 And the administration is still getting up there and acting like it's like,
15:05 you know, flipping a switch, right?
15:06 Oh, are the lights on or the lights off?
15:08 Are we in a war with Iran or are we not?
15:10 And it just feels like no one has
15:13 any actual understanding of the mechanics of this war
15:18 on any level from the theology of it down to the brass tax of how oil flows.
15:25 And it feels like no one is thinking about the obvious stuff.
15:29 And I get that I am, you know,
15:30 collecting this from various primary sources and people who know more than me,
15:34 but that's what you're supposed to do when you don't know.
15:37 you're supposed to go to the people who have more information than you.
15:40 And it feels like no one did that.
15:42 No one asked an Iran expert about any of these things because they're all,
15:46 you know, they're online now tweeting away saying like,
15:48 "I could have told you that.
15:50 Obviously, they were going to do that." What you're seeing is a manifestation.
15:54 I I really do think the American public has
15:56 taken so much for granted that's now coming to fruition,
16:00 whether it's freedom of navigation or TSA or air traffic control, what have you.
16:06 There's been so many components of the government that we take for granted.
16:09 And one of the things we've taken for granted
16:11 is our intelligence service and our diplomatic corps.
16:13 There are no more diplomats or all the only litmus tests for whether
16:19 or not you're in this government or survive
16:21 in this government is loyalty, not expertise.
16:24 So that's doubly dangerous because not only do you
16:27 lose the expertise of people who actually understand the situation,
16:31 but you just have a bunch of yesmen telling you what you want to hear.
16:33 And that is effectively kind of the strategy
16:35 or the the playbook for always the down and fall
16:37 of these autocrats is they end up surrounding
16:40 themselves with yesmen and they never get good information.
16:42 And the most recent example of that is uh yeah we'll be in Kev in 3
16:47 to 5 days right and Trump believed that I'm
16:50 sorry and Putin believed that for slip there.
16:53 So, we're seeing all this incompetence uh bubble up.
16:56 To your point, uh I had Admiral Stvitus on the prop
17:00 GP pod and he said that the shock troops,
17:02 the 30,000 younger people who are willing to risk their lives
17:05 and gave their lives to try and overthrow the government,
17:08 those people are dead and there wasn't a reserve of additional
17:11 shock troops once we went in and started started bombing.
17:16 But this is just a total lack a total lack of confidence.
17:22 um a a sense that we don't know what is going on.
17:26 And the only thing I would add to this is that Americans
17:31 in addition I think I I think there needs to be a reckoning
17:35 here and all of it can't be just blaming one party
17:38 or the other or an individual Americans want to spend want to outsource war.
17:45 Uh when George Bush went into Iraq, he told the American public,
17:49 "Oh, we can go to war and cut taxes.
17:51 You don't have to eat dinner and you can eat candy
17:53 and not go to school tomorrow." And the American public believed him.
17:57 And as a result, we now have George Washington,
18:00 George Bush, 7 trillion in deficits.
18:02 Uh George Bush to currently another $33 trillion in deficits.
18:09 And quite frankly, we're very soft.
18:12 I mean, when economic collapse in Iran is
18:15 food shortages and potentially riots in the street,
18:19 we're nowhere near economic collapse.
18:21 I I understand that it's that it's tough on Americans.
18:24 I don't mean to sound like, you know, a lack of empathy,
18:27 but the reality is if people's internet goes down for an hour or AWS goes down,
18:32 the whole nation freaks out.
18:34 We believe that if we just been go from 1 trillion to 1.4 4 trillion
18:38 that that will in that will give
18:40 us limitless ability to throw our weight around.
18:42 No, we need to have the operating system
18:45 and control and cooperation of twothirds of the world economy,
18:48 not one third, by treating the other third, our western allies,
18:50 like[ __] Two, we need to understand asymmetric warfare.
18:54 The battlefield has changed dramatically.
18:56 And three, and this is the hard part, we kind of have to show when we take
19:00 these military actions that we're in it to win it.
19:04 because it doesn't matter if you're a superior army.
19:06 If you have what I've referred to before as a glass jaw,
19:10 it's kind of just hold them out.
19:12 I don't see any incentives at this point unless they can ensure
19:16 that no oil is flowing out or being transported out of Iran.
19:19 And even if it is, do you think the IRGC can is
19:22 is really worried if their general populace goes hungry for a few weeks?
19:27 I I they're claiming eight or nine weeks.
19:31 I don't think there's any[ __] way these people give in in eight or nine weeks.
19:34 But again, I'm not an expert and it's hard to find an expert
19:37 because they were fired because they weren't all sick of fans um to Trump.
19:43 What do you think about the um
19:44 the Iranian foreign minister going to China tomorrow?
19:47 Cuz that seems like a big deal.
19:49 Like we're going next week, right?
19:51 Trump goes the 15th or the 16th.
19:53 So it that feels like in the midst of war or ceasefire
19:57 or whatever we're in like a pretty big deal that they're having,
20:01 you know, a a high-end public meeting.
20:04 It's a giant[ __] you to the US because those two easily
20:06 could have got on a secure phone line and not let it out.
20:09 But him publicly going over there is
20:10 China basically saying that we are empathetic,
20:14 want to have relationships with the IRGC in the midst of a war
20:16 with who used to be a strong trading partner, the United States.
20:21 It's absolutely a it's it's China coing up or at least um
20:26 distancing itself or quite frankly um waving the middle finger at Trump.
20:32 Um that's how I see it.
20:33 How do you see it?
20:34 I do as well.
20:35 And it just also, you know,
20:36 if this is the same person who's
20:38 supposed to be helping with nuclear negotiations,
20:42 it feels like I would feel a lot better, you know,
20:45 if you were in Islamabad having conversations
20:47 with our top real estate developer team, uh, than going and, you know,
20:52 sharing a podium with the Chinese and talking about all
20:56 the various ways in which they cooperate because the that's the IRGC.
21:00 if they have 8 to nine weeks left, maybe that's the case, maybe it isn't.
21:04 But if you have China behind you and they can find
21:06 a way over the course of the next couple of months to be
21:10 able to get that oil out and get more capital in, which
21:13 I imagine the Chinese aren't inviting them over there to say,
21:16 "Hey, we actually don't want to be friends with you
21:18 anymore and we're not going to help you out here." Like,
21:21 seems like a pretty big deal and will lead to them being further dug in.
21:26 Frankly, you know, maybe China has some message of we we
21:29 want this to end and and find a a route out,
21:33 but I imagine that they'll be further emboldened
21:35 as a result of having a public Chinese backing like that.
21:39 Okay, let's take a quick break.
21:40 Stay with us.
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23:00 Welcome back.
23:01 Meanwhile, back at home, there's a different kind of political tugof-war.
23:04 This time inside the Senate, a handful of Republican senators are
23:07 reportedly trying to persuade Pennsylvania Senator
23:09 John Federman to switch parties
23:10 or become an independent caucusing with Republicans.
23:13 Wow.
23:13 This I did.
23:14 I mean, I guess I should have seen this coming.
23:16 I didn't.
23:16 What do you make of this, Jess?
23:18 Well, I don't think it's going to happen.
23:20 Um, I think it's a bit of a pipe dream.
23:22 You know, if Joe Mansion didn't become a Republican,
23:25 I don't think John Federman is going to.
23:27 John Federman is way to the left of even where Mansion was.
23:30 He still votes with the party 91 to 93% of the time.
23:33 The big areas of policy disagreement with the party are definitely on Israel.
23:39 Um, it's the only thing that he puts a suit on for is
23:41 when Netanyahu came um and spoke to a joint session of Congress.
23:45 and he doesn't really have patience for what
23:47 he sees are kind of partisan silly fights.
23:50 Like he thinks, you know, keep the government open,
23:52 you should be able to do your job without shutting down the government, etc.
23:56 Um, but there's a real fissure there.
23:59 He doesn't have friends on the Democratic side.
24:01 His closest friends are Dave McCormack, who's, you know,
24:04 the moderate Republican senator,
24:06 other senator from Pennsylvania, and Katie Britt.
24:08 Um, he hangs out with them and their spouses all the time.
24:13 And Donald Trump has apparently offered him
24:15 a financial incentive to switch parties cuz of course,
24:18 you know, money is all that matters.
24:20 Yeah.
24:21 Well, it's so funny.
24:22 I'm like, the guy's wearing, you know,
24:24 an outfit fully from Modell's or something like that and you think
24:28 that he's going to be sued because you gave him a lot of money.
24:31 Um, I also think like John Federman could not go
24:34 home and face his wife if he did something like this.
24:39 You know, she was an undocumented immigrant.
24:42 super progressive.
24:44 Um, that was always his brand in the primary
24:47 for him to become the nominee for that seat.
24:50 He was up against Connor Lamb,
24:52 who was a congressman and was the more conservative one in the primary.
24:56 You know, John Ferman was to the left of everything.
24:59 So, I don't see it really happening,
25:01 but it makes for some good cloak room drama, I guess.
25:06 Um, and it would have, if it did,
25:08 something like that did happen, it would have an enormous impact.
25:11 I mean, the numbers are so thin and Democrats are
25:14 hopeful to pick up a few seats in the Senate, even in the midterms.
25:18 So, it would be a huge shock.
25:20 Uh, and speaking of fractures inside political coalitions,
25:23 things keep getting a little uncomfortable inside of MAGA.
25:26 Marjorie Taylor Green now says Donald Trump privately warned her that releasing
25:30 the Epstein files could hurt people in his own orbit, specifically at Mara Lago.
25:35 She says she pushed back, arguing the focus should be on the victims.
25:38 Let's take a listen.
25:39 I was in my office in the Rayburn building and I got
25:43 a phone call from the president and he was at the White
25:46 House and he wanted to talk to me about the dis
25:49 discharge petition that I'd signed my name on and he said,
25:52 "Marjorie, you're going to have to take your name off that discharge petition.
25:57 The these we can't let this is a hoax.
26:00 We can't carry this.
26:01 This is a hoax.
26:02 It's a Democrat hoax and we've got to just put this away and stop
26:06 doing this." this and he said my friends are going to get hurt.
26:11 He said his friends would get hurt if we release the Epstein files.
26:16 I just I'm still just not there on her.
26:19 I get it that she's saying all the right stuff.
26:22 Not the crazy alien stuff that she says,
26:24 but like you know this and she had a good
26:26 line about how her TDS is in Trump derangement syndrome.
26:29 It's Trump disillusionment syndrome, I think.
26:32 But
26:35 disappointment disappointment.
26:35 Um, but I don't know.
26:37 I I'm all for a big tent.
26:39 My tent feels a little smaller than Marjorie Taylor Green.
26:43 How are you?
26:44 How What do you What do you think she's after?
26:48 Big 10.
26:48 I hope she's mauled and eaten by a lion.
26:51 Oh, there we go.
26:55 Kidding.
26:55 No calls for violence.
26:56 My response is the same response I have
26:59 whenever I get a call from a Democratic senator
27:02 or a billionaire business person who says they want
27:05 to talk to me about my ideas about young men.
27:07 I say the same thing and then there's an awkward
27:09 silence and then we laugh and I say the following.
27:11 Oh, you're running for president.
27:14 I'm like, I I'm I'm an interesting guy.
27:16 I've got some interesting ideas, but the reason you're on the phone
27:18 with me right now is you're running for president.
27:20 You want to come on the pod?
27:22 She's running for president and and she's
27:26 not her and Tucker Carlson have have identified
27:30 the mother of all if the straight of horos as wide as the Pacific Ocean.
27:35 This is the lane that these people see and they're smart politically.
27:39 Supposedly the odds on favorites are Trump and Vance.
27:42 Except here's the problem.
27:44 Trump is[ __] Chernobyl right after the reactor exploded.
27:49 And anyone around that reactor for any extended period
27:52 of time is going to die a death of political leukemia.
27:57 Nobody gets out of his orbit alive.
27:59 He doesn't give a[ __] about the party.
28:02 He doesn't give a[ __] about Vance or Rubio.
28:04 He's such a narcissist.
28:06 I'm fairly certain that he probably doesn't want a Republican to win.
28:09 So he can blame it on he can say
28:11 I'm the only guy that could win for the Republicans.
28:14 who who coming out of the previous administration has done really well
28:18 politically like who's I got was great to be near the president.
28:22 He is radioactive.
28:25 Vance and Rubio do not get out of this alive.
28:28 They die a painful they die they die a painful death.
28:33 What the lane is is someone who
28:36 has conservative values supported Trump disillusioned anti-war anti-Israel.
28:42 That is a huge lane and I think she and Tucker Carlson both see that lane.
28:49 All of a sudden she's found, you know,
28:52 conservative values and she wants to be she's trying to stay on the stage
28:56 and I believe she's planning a run for president as is Tucker Carlson who
29:00 all of a sudden is embracing and defending Nick Fuentes because he realizes
29:04 that the manosphere is really important to whoever
29:07 eventually is going to be the Republican nomination.
29:10 But they have all identified this lane of I am
29:13 for the values that Trump initially adhered to in his first term.
29:18 I am against these forever wars.
29:20 I am in favor of releasing the full Epstein files.
29:24 I am anti-Israel, anti-Netanyahu, but you can trust me.
29:28 I'm a hardcore conservative family values Republican.
29:33 Uh and Donald Trump has strayed.
29:36 There is an enormous lane for that right now.
29:39 and the majority of people in elected office
29:41 that he has not already alienated or pissed off are
29:44 afraid that he will go after them and contaminate
29:48 them or just shut them down or what have you.
29:51 Um so yeah, she's she's thirsty.
29:53 She wants to stay in the news.
29:55 She wants to stay present.
29:57 Uh but my sense is someone has talked her into believing
29:59 that she's a viable candidate for the Republican nomination.
30:03 Your thoughts?
30:04 I wouldn't doubt that that you know she's thinking about it
30:07 or at least having you know some sort of life after Congress.
30:12 But I do think that Trump will still wield more power
30:16 in the 2028 landscape than somebody who's coming out and saying things
30:20 like if I revealed my text messages with Donald Trump I'd
30:24 probably be in jail or this guy totally sold us all out.
30:29 It's one thing to have a couple of gripes with him,
30:32 but to generally still be in the tent.
30:34 I don't know about someone who's in like
30:37 a complete warfare mode because he will still,
30:41 even if the base gets a bit smaller, it's usually what 25 to 30%,
30:46 let's say it's down to even 18 to 25% or something like that.
30:51 That's still a lot of people that he'd
30:53 be able to command essentially to say like,
30:57 you know, I understand you you want change.
31:00 Maybe you don't want my number, too, cuz you know, he's not as good as me.
31:03 And I think that's a very valid argument to make.
31:06 You know, Trump is the genuine article and JD Vance is a shape shifter who's
31:10 done everything from call him Hitler to say
31:12 he's the greatest thing in the entire world.
31:15 But I feel like he's going to stop at nothing to destroy
31:18 people who have gone who are going so hard against him.
31:21 I think it's a decent bet.
31:22 It's very hard for people to imagine themselves
31:26 because of survival instinct that they'll ever actually die.
31:29 There's a couple things I just never thought would happen.
31:32 My dog Zoe, I could never imagine her dying for some reason.
31:35 I couldn't even envision it.
31:36 Even when she got sick, I just couldn't actually wrap my head around the notion
31:38 that this dog might actually die at some point.
31:40 When we had our first child,
31:42 I could never actually imagine my partner's bot breaking.
31:46 I just I just thought her stomach was going to continue
31:48 to grow and we were never actually going to have a baby.
31:50 I couldn't even I couldn't envision it.
31:52 I think the American
31:53 I can guarantee you that all she thought about was not being pregnant though.
31:58 Getting that thing out of me.
32:00 Actually, I'm not exaggerating.
32:02 She was the most beautiful pregnant woman in the world.
32:05 She loved being pregnant.
32:06 She would walk into a restaurant.
32:08 I'm not exaggerating.
32:09 people would stop eating dinner and come over
32:12 to her and tell her how beautiful she was.
32:13 And she loved the attention.
32:15 Anyways, I think the American public doesn't recognize the actuarial
32:20 chance that Donald Trump doesn't make it through office.
32:23 He is an obese 79y old man, which according to actuarial tables means
32:28 there's about a 12% annual mortality rate.
32:31 So in the next 2 and 1/2 years, there's about a one in three chance he dies.
32:36 So the overunder on carving out that lane
32:39 and the fact that he gets even more and more unpopular.
32:43 I don't know.
32:43 I think I let it this way.
32:45 There's much there's much bigger long shots.
32:47 It's absolutely clear to me Tucker Carlson is running for president
32:50 and I think that uh Marjorie Taylor Green is lining up and thinking,
32:54 well, I'll I'll stay visible.
32:56 Maybe I'll be someone's VP pick.
32:59 But she's she is oh my gosh, are these people are these people thirsty?
33:04 It's just so clear they're lining up for something.
33:07 Okay, let's take a quick break.
33:08 Stay with us.
33:12 Welcome back.
33:13 Let's zoom out from political drama to policy.
33:15 There's a pretty notable shift happening on AI.
33:18 After years of pushing against regulation of artificial intelligence,
33:20 the White House is now considering introducing
33:22 a government oversight process around new AI models.
33:26 Jess, the administration has long held
33:27 the stance that AI shouldn't be regulated,
33:29 that it would just hold progress back.
33:31 Uh what do you think has changed?
33:34 Nothing.
33:34 I think it I think they just know that they're supposed
33:36 to say that and then they're not going to do anything.
33:39 I mean, if you look at any White House event,
33:41 it's all tech titans who all have a vested interest in not ever being regulated.
33:48 I do think it is the most amazing opportunity
33:51 for Democrats especially um because they're not in power right
33:57 now but even sensible Republicans because if you look
34:00 at people's level of concern with AI massive I mean
34:04 these town halls about data centers are I mean
34:08 you would think that people were saying I'm I'm going
34:11 to come I'm going to burn down your house like
34:12 that's how extreme uh the the reaction to what's coming,
34:18 whatever the future looks like is for these folks.
34:21 And um I saw a poll, it was about 50% of people didn't know who they thought was
34:27 better to regulate AI or to deal with whatever AI is going
34:30 to bring for workingclass people up to white collar folks where it
34:34 seems like some of the effects could actually felt um the strongest.
34:38 But I want you to talk about this because you're way better on AI than I am.
34:42 No, I thought I think you're exactly right.
34:43 I think that delay and obuscation is kind of the go-to strategy.
34:49 Uh it's an enormous opportunity for Democrats
34:52 to outline fairly basic regulation, right?
34:54 Age gating on character AI,
34:57 60-day hold period for testing amongst a group of uh AI academics,
35:03 economists, technologists to beta test the[ __] out
35:06 of something as opposed to Dario Elmade saying,
35:08 "I'm only going out to 40 customers because
35:10 I'm worried about it." any new product release,
35:12 any new LLM has to be I mean, if it takes if it takes the FDA 10 years,
35:17 if the FDA can delay a drug's introduction to the market
35:20 by a decade to make sure that it's safe,
35:22 there's no reason why the government can't ask uh every technology
35:26 company in AI to let them play with the model and test
35:29 the[ __] out of it and bang it every which way but loose
35:33 for 60 to 90 days and then have regulations around um weapons,
35:39 self-healing weapons,
35:40 invasion of private privacy having it being used for surveillance.
35:44 There's a really interesting argument that someone made that kind
35:47 of struck me as being very salient and that is
35:50 according to these guys AI is more powerful
35:55 and a greater existential threat than any technology including nuclear weapons.
36:02 And so the question is all right well
36:04 we don't let private ventureback companies build nuclear weapons.
36:08 Why at all are we letting private companies build AI?
36:13 Now, I don't believe we should make it make all of these things
36:16 government companies because I do think there's a lot of economic value here.
36:19 We want to stay competitive.
36:20 The private sector is more innovative than the public sector.
36:24 But there is if there were in my view there is a dramatic need
36:30 and a sensible need for pretty serious
36:33 formation of an agency of very intelligent people.
36:37 someone, you know, that someone reminiscent of the EPA or the FDA.
36:40 And everybody doesn't like regulation until they realize we have no[
36:44 __] experts to tell us what to do and planes start
36:47 getting backed up and our food supply goes bad or no
36:50 one can tell us what the[ __] is going on in Iran.
36:52 Folks, our government operates on the whole really well.
36:56 There needs to be an agency that uh regulates these things and some
37:00 common sense laws around um how AI is used and how we
37:06 can how we can kind of quite frankly just beta test the[ __]
37:09 out of it and make sure that it doesn't get turned against us.
37:14 Uh and just politically a Democrat who was interested
37:18 in me Gavin News should be all over this and they
37:21 have proposed some legislation but he should be he's
37:24 gone from the all caps great social media guy.
37:27 he should pivot to becoming and there's an opportunity here for Basher Shapiro
37:31 to say you know what I actually understand this technology or at least
37:35 my staff does and I've come out with a 20 or 30 page
37:40 you know AI regulation manifesto that's summarized in one page such that I
37:45 can go on CNN and say the you know Jake these are
37:47 the three top points you know Brett Bayer these are these are the basic
37:51 three points around some sort of regulation
37:53 because the first person that demonstrates
37:56 that they sort understand AI gets the attribute that never goes out of style.
38:00 Youth, they will look young.
38:02 They will look like, "Oh,
38:03 that person understands these scary technologies that I don't understand,
38:08 but I believe somebody needs to understand because clearly in Washington,
38:13 they've gotten a reputation for like, okay, you know, I understand fax machines.
38:17 I have my assistant print out my emails, right?
38:20 I don't know how to clean my CPAP.
38:22 I know technology for me is the wheels my oxygen tank rolls on.
38:27 That was probably a little much.
38:28 Anyways, I like rhetorical flourish like that.
38:31 I think it really hit home.
38:33 This is a lane for a Democrat to come out and say I really I'm I understand AI.
38:39 I don't understand this is for example this would be
38:43 a great lane and a great talk track for Mayor Pete.
38:46 He's young.
38:47 He's smart.
38:48 He he has incredible ability to distill very complicated
38:51 issues down to a series of very digestible talking points.
38:55 He should he should absolutely I don't What
38:57 the[ __] is Mayor Pete doing right now?
38:59 What is He's doing these Well,
39:00 he's he's like the number one requested surrogate for all of these Democrats.
39:05 He's all over the country holding these amazing events and town halls.
39:10 Um I mean I Okay, but does he have an actual job?
39:13 What's his title?
39:14 How does how does he make money?
39:15 What's he doing right now?
39:15 Do you have any idea?
39:16 Substack maybe.
39:18 No, I mean he is on sub.
39:19 I mean he's he should be the head of he should be
39:22 the head of a tank or a political center somewhere.
39:25 Anyway, my point is probably has a job I don't know about.
39:27 My point is a really big opportunity for him would be to be
39:31 the politician who really understands technology
39:33 and specifically AI who could say
39:35 all right this is a tension around data centers and this kind
39:39 of leads into our next story around incremente quality and and the met
39:42 ball but data centers have become the flash point for AI because
39:47 people are saying okay they're building this building over there I know it's
39:51 going to make someone rich who I don't know I don't even
39:54 get to participate if I had the money because these stocks aren't public.
39:57 All I've heard is that my electric electricity prices are going to go
40:00 up 12% and supposedly this[ __] is really bad for the environment.
40:04 And it's not even that that has them angry.
40:07 It's it's a symbol.
40:08 It's it's something they can throw a tomato around around income inequality.
40:13 And speaking of income inequality,
40:14 this is going to be our segue to ending on something a little lighter,
40:18 but it's still political in its own way.
40:20 This year's MetGala didn't just belong to fashion in Hollywood.
40:24 It belonged to Silicon Valley.
40:25 The event raised a record 42 million powered in large part by tech
40:29 money with Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez
40:31 Bezos leading the charge as top sponsors.
40:34 What did you make of the Met Ball?
40:37 I have to say I'm not like a total
40:40 dieard that you know is waiting for the red carpet.
40:43 I do I perused through I liked a lot of the outfits.
40:46 It was interesting to see Blake Lively out there
40:49 because the Justin Baldoni lawsuit it got settled yesterday.
40:52 I don't know who was not there because of the Amazon influence.
40:57 There's swirl that that's why Zenia didn't go this year um you know
41:02 as a kind of push back especially
41:04 because of ICE detention centers and things like
41:06 that um visav Amazon but it feels like a metaphor for what's going
41:11 on in every part of our society
41:15 that the tech overlords are now controlling everything.
41:19 And I have nothing against Lauren Sanchez Bezos.
41:23 It seems like she's a pretty nice person and nice woman.
41:27 Yeah.
41:28 And you know, she also ridiculous.
41:30 Also also ridiculously[ __] tonedeaf writing writing gabbing an article
41:35 in New York Times talking about how amazing her life is.
41:38 I would not have done that personally.
41:40 Uh what Albert Brooks said,
41:42 "Keep it." You remember that great line with William Hurt where he says,
41:45 "What happens when your reality exceeds
41:46 your wildest dreams?" And Albert Brooks responds, "Keep it to yourself." Yeah.
41:50 Some quiet.
41:51 She seems like I met her.
41:52 She seems very nice.
41:53 All of her friends, everyone that knows her says she's lovely.
41:56 Just have a[ __] amazing life.
41:57 Kind of, you know, a little bit below the radar.
42:00 People need don't need to understand how you've married.
42:03 Anyways, uh I'm not No, no, no.
42:06 Um it's a conversation.
42:08 We're not interrupting.
42:09 Um, but I don't have that gene in me
42:14 where I crave being around celebrities like that.
42:19 Like I just I don't get I mean I haven't been invited to the Met Gala,
42:23 so maybe it would change if I were,
42:24 but I thought Mom Donnie had the perfect response where he was like, "I'm good.
42:28 I'm going to focus on workingclass people, and I love the Met.
42:31 I'm glad that they're going to raise a lot of money.
42:33 It's important, etc.,
42:34 but like that's not where the working-class mayor is needed.
42:39 Um, that seems like a good response to it and obviously, you know,
42:42 setting a difference with Mayor Adams,
42:45 but I I would feel like such a loser, right,
42:48 if I was just the person that was footing
42:50 the bill for the thing and just staring at Beyonce
42:55 and trying to figure out what her outfit signifies
42:57 about her next album that's to come and, you know,
43:00 trying to, you know, pick the meaning out of Lady Gaga's outfit, etc.
43:04 But like you should when you have that much money should have
43:08 a little bit more self-awareness for who you are in all of this.
43:11 And standing next to Nicole Kidman on the red carpet
43:15 is just not it's not the best look to me personally.
43:19 Yeah.
43:19 It feels like when you're by votes to be homecoming queen or king.
43:24 Yeah.
43:24 Uh, I said on Pivot,
43:25 I thought it was the perfect marriage because Vogue and, you know,
43:30 these magazines have just too much RZ and not enough
43:34 money and Bezos has too much money and not enough RZ.
43:39 But it was really interesting.
43:40 It became a politicized event.
43:42 I don't know how to say this without sounding like a douchebag,
43:44 so I'm just going to say it.
43:45 I got invited and it fell on the same I was in, by the I
43:48 don't know if you know this, I was in Germany today in Hamburg, Germany.
43:51 And I thought, "Okay, I can go to Germany, eat sausage, drink[ __] amazing beer,
43:58 and hang out." I I spoke at Online Marketing Rockstars, and I love the event.
44:03 It was This was such an easy call.
44:07 I mean, it doesn't seem like that much fun to me.
44:10 It seems like Instagram, but even more self-absorbed.
44:14 And also I do think and it comes back to data centers.
44:18 I do think these folks don't realize that kind of a let them eat cake party.
44:27 It's just sort of in bad taste right now.
44:29 You know, it's one thing to celebrate fashion and young designers.
44:32 I get it.
44:33 But to have it sponsored by Bezos at this moment is just not a good idea.
44:38 I think Anna Winter, quite frankly, I think she[ __] up here.
44:41 I think they should have figured out a way to keep it more authentic
44:45 as opposed to having whatever the fourth
44:47 richest man in the world basically sponsor it.
44:49 The other thing I don't like just to piss off progressives the, you know,
44:54 I'm seeing all these Tik Toks and Instagrams of how genius it
44:57 was to have all these Amazon workers beaming things saying, "I'm a worker.
45:00 You should be throwing this party for me." I don't like that either.
45:04 I I think you I think fine, don't go write an op-ed,
45:08 but don't try and[ __] up their event.
45:10 Let them have their let them have their party.
45:14 Um I don't The whole thing if there's a year
45:18 where this thing jumped the shark, it was this year.
45:22 It wasn't about the fashion.
45:24 It wasn't about people.
45:25 It wasn't about looking fabulous.
45:26 It wasn't about New York.
45:27 In New York, this is a great event for New York.
45:30 It's a great event for the fashion industry.
45:33 And quite frankly, it just came across as tonedeaf.
45:37 and the Bezos family.
45:39 You know, Jeff and Lauren's involvement in it just uh quite frankly,
45:46 that was a that was a whiff.
45:48 It's one thing for him to be invited.
45:50 He's a successful guy.
45:51 She's a beautiful woman.
45:53 They're in the midst of a midlife crisis that they'll
45:55 grow out of in about 40 or 50 years.
45:57 I say they lean into it.
45:58 I'm kind of here for it.
45:59 But to have them sponsoring this thing, it felt like a miss.
46:04 It felt like it felt like someone close to the Bezos need to say, you know,
46:09 it's like when my father my father said to me something,
46:12 a couple things stuck with me.
46:13 He said, "The key to happiness in America is to be
46:15 rich but anonymous." They need to be a little bit more anonymous.
46:19 They need to fly under the radar.
46:21 And there is opportunity for you to give to things without
46:25 your name and certainly your physical presence plastered all over everything.
46:30 It happens all the time.
46:31 They could have just given the money.
46:32 Yeah.
46:32 They could have just said,
46:33 "How much money do we need to give to make sure we get invited?" I mean,
46:35 I, you know, I wouldn't be above that.
46:37 It's like, okay, you want to get invited to something cool,
46:40 you got to give money.
46:41 That's no different than buying tickets to World Cup,
46:43 which by the way are ridiculously[ __] expensive.
46:47 Yeah.
46:47 Can't even like, you know, Fox has it and it is everyone wants to go.
46:53 It is like the most requested set of tickets um that we've ever had.
46:58 I want to go to a Mexico City game.
47:00 That's Oh, that would be amazing.
47:02 That would absolutely be amazing.
47:03 But it's not not in the cards for me.
47:05 On the cards or in the cards?
47:06 I never know.
47:07 Not in the cards.
47:08 Yeah.
47:09 In the cards.
47:09 Yeah.
47:10 All right.
47:10 Well, let's leave it there, Jess.
47:11 If anybody wants to take us, we we we don't want to go to the Met Ball,
47:15 but we will absolutely uh do whatever you want.
47:19 Uh and we're we're both fun.
47:21 We both like to drink.
47:22 Actually, I don't know if you like to drink.
47:24 One of us likes to drink.
47:25 One drink.
47:26 That's all I can handle.
47:27 But I'm a great time after that one drink for like an hour.
47:31 You'll look much better on someone's arm than me.
47:34 But let's any anyone wants to take us to to World Cup, we're in.
47:40 Yeah.
47:39 Yeah.
47:39 There you go.
47:40 We're absolutely in.
47:41 Before we go,
47:43 a reminder, the Raging Moderates is on Substack as part of ProfG Plus.
47:46 If you sign up for ProfG Plus,
47:48 not only will you get access to adree episodes and exclusive live streams,
47:51 you'll also get a way to connect with me, Jess, and the community.
47:54 Plus, you can get the Raging Moderates newsletter,
47:56 the Monday Rage in your inbox every week.
47:59 So, come join us.
48:00 Sign up at raging moderates.propgmedia.com.
48:03 Also, we're making a few changes to the show.
48:05 You'll be getting more of the two
48:07 of us with longer episodes dropping Monday, Tuesday,
48:09 and Thursday afternoons in addition to all
48:11 the fun and rage that's happening on Substack.
48:14 That's all for this episode.
48:16 Uh, thanks so much for joining us today, Jess.
48:18 I will see you on Thursday.
48:20 On Thursday.