US President Donald Trump says Iran ceasefire is on 'massive life support' | BBC News

0:05 Hello, I'm Helen Humphrey and this is the Iran War today.

0:08 Our daily briefing bringing you up to date with all you need

0:10 to know on day 73 of the USI Israel war with Iran.

0:15 Well, in the next 15 minutes or so,

0:17 we will be live with our correspondents in the newsroom and around the world.

0:23 Well, let's start with some of today's key developments.

0:27 President Trump says the Iran ceasefire is on life support

0:30 and brands Iran's response to US peace proposals totally unacceptable.

0:37 Oil prices jump once again as diplomatic deadlock means

0:40 the crucial straight of horm remains at an effective standstill.

0:45 A stark warning from the United Nations that the world only has a few

0:50 weeks to avert a humanitarian crisis as disruption

0:54 to fertilizer shipments threatens global food supplies.

0:59 Iran executes a man accused of spying for the US and Israel.

1:03 Human rights groups say that he was

1:04 tortured and forced to give false confessions.

1:10 Well, we start with the focus on the diplomatic stalemate

1:14 as Iran and the US fail once again to find common ground.

1:18 Well, President Trump warned that the ceasefire is on quote life support

1:22 and has rejected Iranian counterposals to a US plan for potential peace talks,

1:27 describing them as totally unacceptable.

1:30 The counter proposal reportedly included an immediate

1:33 end to the war on all fronts, a halt to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports,

1:38 and guarantees of no further attacks on Iran.

1:41 Well, here are some of President Trump's latest comments.

1:45 It's unbelievably weak.

1:47 I would say I would call it the weakest right now.

1:52 After reading the piece of garbage they sent us,

1:54 I didn't even finish reading it.

1:56 I said, I'm not going to waste my time reading it.

1:59 I would say it's one of the weakest right now.

2:02 It's on life support.

2:04 Well, let's cross then to Washington DC and speak to Burn Debusman.

2:07 Uh Bern, good to see you.

2:08 President Trump there making fresh comments in the Oval Office.

2:11 They're not optimistic.

2:13 What more can you tell us?

2:17 They weren't optimistic and I think much more so than in the previous few days.

2:20 He's increasingly pessimistic, at least publicly,

2:23 about the prospect of a negotiated settlement to this war.

2:27 uh it he he didn't say what the the next steps would be,

2:30 but he did say he rejected the Iranian proposal out of hand.

2:34 Uh he didn't give many specific reasons why.

2:36 Uh but he certainly now seems to think

2:39 that a return to perhaps full-scale combat operations is much more

2:44 likely than than it was at the end

2:46 of of last week now that he's seen that Iranian proposal,

2:49 which he said he he rejected to the point

2:51 where he didn't read the full document.

2:53 So, President Trump certainly doesn't think that the negotiations

2:56 seem to be going anywhere at the moment.

2:59 Bern, thank you very much indeed.

3:00 While the stuttering peace negotiations mean that the straight of moose,

3:04 that vital passageway sandwiched between Iran and Deman effectively

3:09 remains closed with profound economic and potentially humanitarian consequences.

3:14 Oil prices have risen following President Trump's rejection of Iran's demands.

3:19 And now a UN official is warning that disruption to global fertilizer

3:22 shipments could push tens of millions of people towards hunger and starvation.

3:28 We can speak to our business reporter now, Esla Car.

3:30 EA, welcome to you.

3:32 Oil prices up once again and a serious warning

3:34 as well from the UN about the fertilizer market.

3:38 Bring us up to date with the latest.

3:41 Yes, Helena.

3:41 Well, we've seen uh oil prices fluctuate in response

3:44 to the various uh twists and turns um of this conflict,

3:48 and today was no exception.

3:50 So, in response to that latest back and forth between the US and Iran,

3:54 oil prices jumped and earlier reached more than 105 uh dollars a barrel.

3:59 Now, it has since fallen back slightly,

4:01 but it comes on a day where there've been

4:03 even further warnings about the economic fallout of this conflict.

4:07 Firstly, we heard from the CEO of the world's largest oil company,

4:11 Saudi Aramco, Amin NASA, uh, who said that the conflict in Iran has

4:15 created the largest ever shock to global energy supplies.

4:19 Now, he echoed uh, warnings about what he's called critically low levels

4:23 of refined products like petrol and jet fuel ahead of the summer.

4:28 and he has said that if it does take

4:30 a few more weeks for the straits of Hormuz to reopen,

4:32 well then that could mean it's 2027 before the oil markets uh normalize.

4:38 Now he was speaking to investors after Saudi Aramco announced its profits

4:42 for the first uh quarter and they were up more than 25%

4:46 of course fueled by that higher uh price global oil prices and uh

4:52 it uh follows the similar uh pattern from oil giants like BP,

4:57 Shell and Ecu who have all reported bumper profits in the last few weeks.

5:02 But as you say Helena uh uh some ominous

5:04 predictions coming from the UN today this time around fertilizer.

5:07 Then we know that around a third of global fertilizer supplies usually

5:11 travel through the straight of Hormuz and that's essential for food production.

5:16 And today uh the director of a UN task force UN ops

5:20 told the AFP news agency uh that there was only a few

5:24 weeks to prevent uh what he'd said was likely to be a massive

5:28 humanitarian crisis which could force

5:30 an additional 45 million people into hunger.

5:34 So, some very stark warnings there and clearly concern mounting about

5:38 what could be coming down the track the longer this conflict continues.

5:42 Now, in some countries, they've already been trying to take action

5:45 to mitigate the uh economic impact of the conflict.

5:48 That happened in places like the Philippines and Sri

5:50 Lanka just in the days after um the conflict began.

5:54 But India is the latest country to suggest its citizens modify their behavior.

5:59 And over the weekend,

6:00 the prime minister um appealed to people to work from home,

6:04 to use public transport, and to farmers to use less fertilizer.

6:09 Isl car, our business reporter.

6:11 Well, we can turn now to what life is like inside Iran,

6:15 where the authorities have imposed a total internet shutdown

6:19 for months and the regime continues to crack down on disscent.

6:22 Over the weekend, the Iranian Nobel

6:24 Peace Prize winner Nagis Muhammadi was transferred

6:27 from prison to a hospital in Tehran amid concern over her deteriorating health.

6:32 The activist is believed to have lost about 20 kg grams while in prison.

6:38 And on Monday, Iran reportedly executed a man

6:40 accused of spying for the US and Israel.

6:43 Human rights groups say that he was subjected

6:46 to torture and forced to give false confessions.

6:50 We can bring in now BBC Persian senior reporter Gonhabibized.

6:55 Gonch, what more do we know about these cases and what does it say

6:59 about how the Iranian regime is treating

7:02 its citizens at this point in the conflict?

7:06 Iran so far has executed 29 individuals since the war started on 28 Feb.

7:13 And the accusations vary from allegedly having ties with an exiled

7:18 opposition group to spying for Israel and the US.

7:22 But a large portion and report 12 of these executions are

7:27 related to the protests that happened recently in January in Iran

7:32 that those deadly protests and Donald Trump had said during that time

7:37 that the US is locked and loaded to help the protesters.

7:42 And also when he attacked Iran, some were speculating that the attack was

7:46 related to the help that he was promising.

7:48 But right now, Iran is left in a position way worse than it was before the war.

7:55 2 million have lost their jobs inside Iran

7:59 as a result of attacks on petrochemical companies,

8:03 steel companies, and the situation inside Iran.

8:06 The UN has said that more than 4,000 have been

8:10 arrested so far inside the country and checkpoints are still there

8:15 from what I'm hearing from those inside and the main squares

8:20 of the cities that we saw massive protests happening in January.

8:24 Now they're filled every night with those who support establishment

8:28 with rallies by them and they're continuing every night on state TV.

8:32 And I've been monitoring it.

8:34 I've been seeing these rallies and it doesn't

8:36 seem like ever since the war started it has

8:39 led to a regime change or the protesters

8:41 coming out and also they fear for their lives.

8:44 When I have been talking to some of them,

8:46 they're saying we will be risking our lives

8:48 if we come out and protest against establishment.

8:52 Ge many thanks for that reporting.

8:56 Let's return now to the big picture

8:57 and the faltering negotiations over securing long-term peace in Iran.

9:02 The Trump administration has repeatedly signaled that the war is ending soon,

9:06 but diplomatic efforts appear to be making little headway

9:09 with each side accusing the other of making unreasonable demands.

9:14 With me now is our diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams.

9:17 Diplomatically speaking, Paul,

9:19 how large is the gap between both sides right now?

9:22 It's a little hard to tell because we're never getting

9:26 a an official readout from either side of what is exactly being proposed.

9:31 We we know the the general contours.

9:34 Uh I think essentially you can boil it down to Iran wants an end

9:39 to the war upfront and a pledge that you know the war is over,

9:42 no more return to fighting.

9:45 Whereas the Trump administration wants some kind of nuclear commitment

9:49 to uh suspend enrichment for a protracted period of time,

9:53 a pledge never to develop a nuclear weapon.

9:56 Now, from what we understand and what

9:58 Iran's state broadcaster was reporting today,

10:01 the latest Iranian demands include US war reparations,

10:05 something the Trump administration is most unlikely to offer,

10:08 recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

10:11 Now, of course, that that's being the big achievement, if you like,

10:14 of Iranian achievement of the war to establish

10:17 this sort of strangle hold over the strait.

10:19 Again, that is a complete non-starter, not just for the Trump administration,

10:22 but for much of the world, and an end to US sanctions.

10:26 Now, that's something that certainly could be part of a of a deal.

10:29 Uh, no mention there of anything to do with the nuclear file.

10:33 I think the Iranians want to bring the war to an end,

10:37 address those issues and then at some point in the near

10:40 future come on to the question of uh its nuclear program.

10:45 That is an an unacceptable uh formula for the Americans.

10:49 And Paul, if you've got then these two very different

10:52 proposals essentially on paper from both sides from what we

10:55 know uh at least you've got this tough rhetoric from President

10:58 Trump that we've been hearing in the past few hours.

11:00 I guess the question is what gets them back at the table again.

11:05 I think it is the pain, the economic pain that's being felt.

11:08 You know, it is pretty clear that neither side wants to resume a shooting match.

11:13 Uh Trump, Donald Trump, for all his rhetoric.

11:16 It seems very reluctant to go back there.

11:19 You know, he's got a big trip to China coming up in a couple of days.

11:21 He certainly doesn't want this to explode in his face while he's in Beijing.

11:27 uh because that's you know the war is causing uh the Chinese

11:30 enough difficulties as it is but it is the economic pain.

11:34 You've heard some references to it there you

11:35 know that this is the worst oil shock uh

11:38 of of recent times that it's going to be

11:41 well into next year before oil markets fully recover.

11:44 The same head of Aramco said in his briefing every week

11:48 100 million barrels of oil are lost to the global economy.

11:51 That is a colossal uh impact.

11:54 You've had the prime minister of India, Narendra Modi,

11:57 urging the people of India yesterday to save energy,

12:00 to to spend less on fuel and fertilizer and travel.

12:04 You know, to to to a country of 1.4 billion people, that is a huge uh message.

12:09 So, the impact is is colossal.

12:12 Uh the global impact we we're seeing it, you know, in all sorts of ways.

12:16 The impact in Iran is a little bit harder to discern.

12:19 We are seeing some evidence of of cracks.

12:22 You know, the Iranians are trying very hard to to to deal

12:25 with the oil that's building up and they they can't get rid of it.

12:28 You can't shut down oil wells.

12:30 So that that causes pressure in the system.

12:32 They're trying to export some of it by train to China.

12:35 Uh they're doing more business uh across the Caspian Sea with Russia.

12:39 So you but they're having to improvise.

12:41 Everyone is having to improvise.

12:43 The question is who is feeling most pain.

12:46 Iran has shown over 46 years or so

12:48 that it's capable of withstanding enormous pressure,

12:51 economic pressure, and it's also shown, as we saw at the beginning of the year,

12:55 a a distinct lack of regard for the welfare of its own citizens.

12:59 And so perhaps Iran is is willing to tough

13:03 this out longer than Donald Trump even now recognizes.

13:07 Our diplomatic correspondent there, Paul Adams, with that analysis.

13:10 Paul, thank you very much.

13:13 Well, whether you are joining us on YouTube,

13:15 Tik Tok, Sounds, Radio or TV, thanks for your time.

13:17 We will be back at the same time tomorrow with the Iran war today.