‘Send a Warrant To TRUMP!’ US REJECTS Iran Plan | With Former Israeli PM Naftali Bennett

0:00 I can't point and tell you it'll take 3 months or 3 years,

0:04 but it's such a rotten uh corrupt, incompetent regime.

0:09 This whole structure is going to collapse.

0:11 He lied to his base.

0:12 And what the American public doesn't want is 10 years,

0:15 20 years of a prolonged war being advocated

0:18 for by chicken hawks in Washington and around the world.

0:20 This was a major international war crime.

0:23 This was a violation of article 2 of the UN charter.

0:26 You can't just attack a country which is not a threat to you.

0:29 The prime minister of Israel already has an arrest out from the ICC.

0:33 Another one should go out to Donald Trump.

0:35 I strongly believe that President Trump wants a deal.

0:38 I strongly believe the Iranians want a deal.

0:41 You could argue that there is probably only one

0:43 country in the world that doesn't want a deal.

0:45 And I think you you probably know better than me who that country is.

0:51 Many US presidents have discovered at great cost

0:53 that it's very difficult to end a war you started.

0:56 Reports this weekend indicate that President Trump

0:58 is quote bored of the Iran excursion.

1:01 Iran, meanwhile, seems bent on humiliating him.

1:03 The White House waited almost a week for response to his memorandum,

1:07 which is basically a proposal to start talking about a proposal to end the war.

1:12 Tran then watered down most of US demands and added several of his own,

1:16 including formal dominion of the Humo Strait and reparations.

1:20 I just read the response from Iran's so-cal representatives,

1:23 Trump said last night.

1:24 I don't like it.

1:24 totally unacceptable.

1:26 And so here we go again.

1:28 The US must also grapple with the fact that Israel is

1:30 partner in this war is in no mood to end it.

1:33 Israel is fighting a separate front against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

1:36 You may remember that Trump brokered a ceasefire there last month.

1:39 Despite that, 39 were killed in Israeli strikes yesterday.

1:43 Israel is bombing Lebanon every day.

1:45 Both wars are popular inside Israel.

1:47 A complete reversal of the public mood just about everywhere else.

1:51 and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared on US

1:54 TV yesterday to make the case for fighting on.

1:57 Is the war with Iran over?

1:59 And if it isn't, who will decide when it is?

2:03 I think it accomplished a great deal,

2:04 but it's not over because there's still nuclear material,

2:08 enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran.

2:11 Uh there is still uh enrichment sites that have to be dismantled.

2:16 There are still proxies that Iran supports.

2:20 their ballistic missiles that they still uh want to produce.

2:23 Now, we've degraded a lot of it,

2:26 but all of that is still there and there's work to be done.

2:29 How do you envision the highlyenriched uranium will be removed from Iran?

2:34 You go in and you take it out

2:37 with what?

2:37 Special forces from Israel, special forces of the United States

2:40 working in tandem under international supervision.

2:43 How?

2:43 Well, I'm not going to talk about military means,

2:45 but the pres what President Trump has said to me.

2:48 I want to go in there.

2:49 Uh I mean, he said that publicly.

2:51 He said it uh and I think he's right.

2:52 He's very committed to this.

2:55 It's not over, says Netanyahu.

2:56 Clear as day, and it's been a bumper weekend

2:58 for comments by Israelis which seemed designed to infuriate Americans.

3:02 Jonathan Pollard is a hugely controversial figure in the US.

3:05 He's the Navy intelligence analyst turned spy who sold secrets to Israel.

3:09 Some of Trump's top donors lobby

3:11 for his freedom and he's now an Israeli citizen,

3:13 but he's apparently no fan of the US president.

3:17 He's loved in this country.

3:20 He's loved in this country.

3:22 Well, that just shows you how stupid a lot of people in this country really are.

3:28 You have a guy like Trump who doesn't really know much about anything that's

3:33 going on in this region except maybe the price of real estate and he's

3:37 dependent on people like Jared Kushner or Steve Whit who I call Tweedle Dumb

3:45 and Tweedle D that are only interested

3:48 in one thing and that's their bank account.

3:50 It's as simple as that.

3:51 This is not a man that you can trust.

3:54 Well, trust is becoming a major barrier to ending the war.

3:57 Can Trump trust the Iranians?

3:59 Can the Iranians trust Trump?

4:00 And can either side trust Israel to end the war even if they do?

4:04 Well, joining me now is the former Israeli

4:06 prime minister and opposition coalition leader Nafali Bennett.

4:09 Nafali Bennett, welcome back to Uncensored.

4:11 Great to be here, viewers.

4:12 So, last week on the show,

4:14 um I tweeted and then read it out that it was interesting.

4:18 I said in relation to a poly market prediction market putting you

4:23 marginally ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu to be the next prime minister of Israel.

4:26 I said, "Interesting.

4:27 The only candidate with the balls to come on uncensored,

4:30 which you are now proving once more because Benjamin Netanyahu has,

4:35 having done three interviews with me before October the 7th, not come on since.

4:39 So I appreciate you having the balls to come on Uncensored.

4:45 That's what we do."

4:47 And in relation to that poly market, it it's now got Netanyahu just above you.

4:52 You're on 38% chance.

4:54 He's around 41%.

4:57 What do you feel about that?

4:58 I mean, there's there's a lot of people think you

5:00 are going to be the next prime minister of Israel.

5:03 What What's your response?

5:06 We're going to win in October.

5:08 We have elections.

5:09 We're going to win.

5:09 We're going to win big.

5:11 Uh and Israel will open a whole new chapter, a new page.

5:15 We've gone through several years of really difficult years of uh on the brink

5:21 of a civil war and then October 7th and then the prolonged war.

5:26 Israel wants a new start.

5:28 Um it'll be a wonderful government of uh people from the right,

5:33 people from the left, religious, secular, bipartisan government.

5:36 And it's going to be a renaissance for Israel.

5:38 A renaissance for Israel inward.

5:40 A renaissance for Israel in the region

5:43 and with our relationship with the whole world itself.

5:47 How would you be different to Netanyahu?

5:52 I would unite.

5:53 I would unite Israel from within.

5:56 Uh I would respect all citizens whether they voted for me or didn't vote for me,

6:01 whether they're Jewish or Arab.

6:03 uh and I would uh you know be open to to the world obviously on security

6:08 matters it's uh no big secret I'm tougher

6:11 than Netanyahu himself on security but uh in terms

6:15 of running a country you'll see a competent

6:18 leadership a clean leadership one that focuses on just

6:22 building better lives for its people and not

6:24 on the rest of the politics that's going on there

6:28 many people think that this Iran war is turning into a fiasco go that it

6:34 was illconceived at the start that there was

6:36 no proper game plan that had been established,

6:41 no real mission stated with any clarity.

6:45 uh that the goalpost have repeatedly changed and that all

6:48 the pressure came from Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli

6:52 government on Donald Trump to join this war

6:55 and that they laid out according to the New York

6:57 Times a plan of taking out the Ayatollah

6:59 and his top people and then the IRGC would collapse

7:02 from within the people would rise up they'd all be

7:05 too distracted to concern themselves with the straight of Hormuse.

7:08 Now only the first part of that has happened.

7:12 Given where we are with this war near nearly 10 weeks in.

7:16 Um I mean are you optimistic about the way it's going?

7:19 Do you feel good about this?

7:23 Well I think uh it was necessary and I

7:25 want to explain why the alternative was to not

7:29 act and Iran was in the process of creating

7:32 a shield which would prevent any future attack.

7:35 The shield was by moving uh nuclear material underground and by producing such

7:41 a big amount of ballistic missiles that it would deem Iran Iran unattackable.

7:47 And once it would reach that immune zone of immunity,

7:51 then it would race forward towards a nuclear weapon.

7:55 We had to act before we'd lose the ability to act.

7:58 And that's what we did.

8:00 Right.

8:00 But as as I'm looking at this and I'm I was saying this from day one,

8:04 if the objective is to make sure that Iran can't have a nuclear weapon,

8:11 then at some stage you have to get the enriched uranium.

8:14 Benjamin Netanyahu in this CBS interview overnight said

8:19 we've got to go in and take it out.

8:21 But he hasn't explained how that's going to happen.

8:23 No military expert thinks that's possible without boots on the ground.

8:27 That would be a dramatic escalation of an already bogged

8:31 down war which President Trump may have no appetite for politically,

8:36 never mind anything else.

8:38 How are you going to get the enriched uranium?

8:42 Well, I think there's a few things that need to be done.

8:44 The enriched uranium is one of them

8:46 and dismantling the nuclear program is another.

8:48 And the third is putting a cap on on the uh ballistic missile production.

8:54 And what I would urge you and your uh

8:57 viewers to imagine what the Middle East would look like.

9:00 Now we've seen what Iran can do and wants to do,

9:03 but it's an Iran that doesn't have a nuclear umbrella.

9:07 Imagine the same Iran with a nuclear umbrella.

9:10 So my point is it's not easy.

9:12 U it's not easy first and foremost for us.

9:15 I we're the ones who have been

9:17 on the recipient end of all these ballistic missiles.

9:21 not only also UAE and other uh friends in in the Middle East,

9:25 but the alternative is much worse.

9:27 So, we're not in a choice between great and terrible.

9:30 We're in a choice between u very difficult and worse.

9:34 And we chose the very difficult path.

9:37 Right.

9:37 But some would say that this is going, if you're from in the Iranian regime,

9:43 this is going quite well for them in the sense that yes,

9:45 they've taken a pounding on their military capability.

9:48 That is undeniable.

9:50 But that actually by controlling the straight

9:52 of Hmoose they've now established a asymmetric war

9:57 in which they have all the cards

9:59 and by also attacking their Gulf state neighbors

10:02 in the way that they have uh they have show there that there is a different

10:07 war they can be waging that doesn't involve

10:09 direct engagement with the Americans or the Israelis.

10:13 So if you're the Iranians, why would you do any kind of deal that means

10:17 you surrender any control of the straight of moose?

10:20 And why would you why would you give

10:22 up voluntarily your enriched uranium or nuclear program?

10:26 That that's the bit I can't work out how you're going

10:29 to make that happen if they conclude we don't need to do it.

10:35 Well, I uh my analysis is different.

10:37 I think uh Iran exposed its true colors.

10:40 Uh now everyone knows what it wants to do, what it uh would do,

10:46 and certainly can imagine what it would do if it had

10:49 the whole nuclear umbrella and the massive amounts of ballistic missiles,

10:53 which it didn't have.

10:54 Now it had several thousand.

10:55 Imagine it had 30,000 ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ones.

11:00 So now we all see Iran for what it is.

11:04 And to be fair, Iran has taken a huge uh hit.

11:07 its economy is is really gone.

11:10 Uh infrastructure, the regime,

11:13 this regime appears I believe will not survive in the long haul.

11:17 Now I I can't point and tell you it'll take 3 months or 3 years but it's such

11:22 a rotten uh corrupt incompetent regime despised by its own

11:27 people old and this whole structure is going to collapse.

11:32 uh and what we can do even if it doesn't happen right now uh throughout

11:35 the next few years not unlike the Soviet Union of of the late 80s uh we can

11:40 encourage that collapse so uh a new better uh um sort of regime comes there uh

11:48 hopefully a free one that doesn't uh uh

11:50 kill 30,000 of its own people just for demonstrating

11:54 but we had you know guarantees from President Trump

11:56 this would be all over in two to three

11:58 weeks then it was 6 weeks now you're talking

12:00 a few years to affect any kind of regime change.

12:04 Um the goalpost like I say have been I'm not suggesting I I I I didn't suggest

12:11 that we uh continue the war for a few years.

12:14 I suggested that in in many dimensions economic diplomatic uh industrial cyber

12:21 covert overt many different vectors to encourage

12:25 the ultimate collapse that will happen.

12:28 This regime is just like the Soviet Union.

12:30 Just I don't know if the year right now is 1986 or 1956,

12:34 but we uh there's a lot that we can do to help accelerate that collapse.

12:39 Not through war.

12:40 Not only not only through kinetic means, there's many other means.

12:44 What if this wars had the opposite effect?

12:46 What if it's hardened Iranian public opinion so that more of them now

12:50 support the regime because they've seen bombing

12:53 raids that have killed their loved ones,

12:55 for example, which is inevitable in war.

12:57 Uh and what if the IRGC have looked at what's happened

13:00 with the straight of moose and realized that at any moment they choose they

13:04 can strangle the global uh energy market uh and at any moment they

13:08 can also attack their Gulf state

13:09 neighbors and cause them enormous economic damage.

13:12 I mean you talk about the economic damage for Iran,

13:15 but what about the economic damage to the Gulf States around Iran?

13:18 And what about the the economic damage to the US economy which

13:23 is now causing Donald Trump in the run-up to the midterm elections?

13:26 Enormous political damage.

13:28 You know, the damage is not just being done to Iran here.

13:32 And as someone I heard yesterday, I think on Freed Zakari was saying,

13:36 if you're the Iranian regime, just surviving is victory.

13:40 And actually, they'd be quite happy stringing

13:42 this out as long as possible because they know Donald Trump's on a ticking clock

13:47 here because otherwise politically it could be disastrous,

13:50 whereas Israel is not.

13:52 So, could you see a situation where the Americans pull

13:56 out of this war and leave you guys to it?

14:02 Well, you you asked a bunch of questions there.

14:05 Uh first of all I I I would say that uh Iran uh cannot sustain this forever.

14:10 It's taken a huge hit.

14:12 It can't pay its own salaries to to its

14:14 whole uh uh apparatus of terror and corruption.

14:18 There there is they also have tremendous pressure on them.

14:22 Secondly, wars are bad.

14:24 Uh by by no means do do I want to uh

14:27 give an impression that this is great and we love it.

14:31 No, wars are bad and it's best to to end wars,

14:34 but there's just one thing worse is having a nuclear Iran

14:39 uh conducting the same actions and then we lose all leverage.

14:41 So, it's between alternatives over here.

14:45 I can say that this war will also create new alliances

14:51 in the Middle East now that everyone has seen Iran for what it is.

14:54 Uh and and Israel will be a major factor here.

14:58 Now, regarding American policy,

15:00 that's really up for America to to decide what's right for it.

15:04 Uh, in many cases, we have shared interests, but in some cases, it's different.

15:09 For example, from Israel's perspective, Iran is an existential threat.

15:14 From America's perspective, it's a strategic threat.

15:18 And that's different, and we respect that.

15:20 So, we're we're going to work together with our friends in America and and see

15:25 what we can do to bring a good end to all of this.

15:28 But are you of the view uh and are most Israelis of the view

15:34 that this can only be a victory if you do remove the enriched uranium?

15:41 That's a necessary condition.

15:42 It's not sufficient.

15:44 Uh removing the enriched uranium is vital, but it's not enough.

15:48 If they continue producing new uh uranium, it's it's worthless.

15:53 Uh if they go out and build 30,000 ballistic

15:57 missiles and then 5 years from now they're unattackable,

16:00 unassailable, that's also very bad.

16:03 So, uh taking out the rich uranium is important,

16:06 but it's not the only important thing.

16:08 But presumably then you're going to have

16:10 to restart military offensive against the Iranians

16:14 if they won't voluntarily give up

16:16 their nuclear aspirations and their enriched uranium.

16:20 The only alternative if victory is that they have

16:23 no longer got them is to recommence a military offensive.

16:27 Right.

16:29 Well, there there's a bunch of u methods here.

16:32 And when you want to achieve uh ultimately a diplomatic goal,

16:36 the goal of dismantling Iran's nuclear program, I it's not only military,

16:41 it's a mix of military, diplomatic, economic,

16:44 and I think by uh navigating this uh this mix

16:48 in in the right way uh we can achieve it.

16:51 It's not all just about bombing.

16:55 Final question, Natali Bennett.

16:57 The war against Iran and the war against

17:00 Hezbollah in Lebanon are both very popular within Israel.

17:04 But what's been going on in the last three years since October the 7th,

17:08 since the uh massive strike back by Israel uh against Hamas

17:14 in Gaza and what's been going on in Lebanon and Iran,

17:18 there's been a massive shift in public support for Israel,

17:22 particularly in America, but it's global as well as you know.

17:25 But you know, a recent Pew Research Center survey

17:28 found last month that 60% of American adults now

17:32 have an unfavorable opinion of Israel compared with 53%

17:36 a year earlier and a 20 point shift since 2022.

17:40 Just 37% of respondents had a favorable view of Israel.

17:45 Benjamin Netanyahu told 60 Minutes last night that the deteriorated support was

17:49 down to social media and several

17:51 countries manipulating social media to hurt Israel.

17:54 But could it be simpler?

17:56 Could it just be that many people outside of Israel do not share

18:01 the view inside Israel that what you've been doing is a good thing?

18:08 Absolutely.

18:08 I mean, that's a reality.

18:11 Uh I'm I'm acutely cognizant of of our uh international standing and yes,

18:16 we've taken a huge hit.

18:18 That that's just a fact.

18:19 I wish that were not the case.

18:20 took a huge hit all across the world,

18:23 including and especially in America on both sides of the aisle.

18:27 I will say that I prefer to be alive and unpopular than dead and beloved.

18:33 But uh that that aside, we have to do a lot of work and my new

18:38 administration hopefully uh when when we win the elections,

18:41 we're going to tell a new story of Israel, of what Israel ought to be.

18:45 Now, it doesn't mean we're going to be soft.

18:46 We're going to be tough and in some cases tougher,

18:49 but tougher can also be decent.

18:52 For example, inward within Israel,

18:55 the way we uh I at least respect the rights of all

18:58 Israelis and and uh whether they voted for me or not,

19:02 whether right, left, Jewish, Arab, whatever.

19:06 And I think the way that we handle ourselves will

19:09 will tell a whole new story of vision of growth,

19:12 of prosperity without forgetting the fact that we have to defend ourselves.

19:16 But there's ways to do it.

19:18 And I'm optimistic that we'll be able to repair at least

19:22 some of the uh damage and public opinion that we've taken.

19:26 But as I said, um at the end of the day,

19:29 my kids here that I've got four kids in Israel,

19:32 their lives matter for to me more than

19:35 uh our ratings right now in some latest poll.

19:40 Natalie Bennett, as I said at the start,

19:41 I do appreciate you having the balls to come on censored

19:44 and you do regularly and I thank you for that.

19:46 Thank you very much.

19:48 I'm I'm never afraid to speak the the truth.

19:50 And if I may say, uh, whenever I'm here, while you're, uh, very, uh,

19:56 vehement about your positions,

19:57 you ask fair questions and you actually listen to the answers.

20:00 So, I I always like being here.

20:03 I appreciate that very much.

20:04 Thank you very much.

20:07 Thanks.

20:07 Well, joining me on the panel now is Paul Reichoff.

20:09 He's the founder of Independent Veterans of America.

20:12 Colonel Richard Kemp, the former British Army commander.

20:14 Benjamin Rod who's the senior fellow

20:16 at the UCLA International Institute and Matt Kennard.

20:20 He's the journalist and author of Irregular Army.

20:22 So, welcome to all of you.

20:24 Uh, Colonel Kemp, uh, good to see you again.

20:26 Um, this this war in Iran, um, you know, Donald Trump said at the start, uh,

20:33 all sorts of things actually,

20:34 but it was all going to be over in two to three weeks.

20:36 It was going to be a repreeze effectively of what happened last summer,

20:41 short sharp shock, and it was going to decimate Iran, uh,

20:45 destroy the nuclear capability that we'd already

20:47 assumed had been destroyed a year ago,

20:50 and it was all going to be easy and done quickly.

20:52 Obviously, that hasn't happened, and the goalposts have been changing a lot.

20:57 And they're now very, very focused on one goalpost,

21:01 which is the nuclear capability encompassing the enriched uranium.

21:06 We've just heard the man who may be the next prime

21:07 minister of Israel according to the polls say that rather like Benjamin

21:12 Netanyahu did last night on CBS that they have to get

21:16 the enriched uranium and they have to go in and take it.

21:19 You're an army man.

21:21 How are they going to do that without

21:23 a large commitment of troops on the ground?

21:27 Well, I think first of all I'd say

21:29 that um while President Trump and his military planners may

21:33 have thought that this operation would be relatively short

21:36 and not going on as long as it has,

21:38 of course, you can never it predict how long a war is going to last.

21:43 When you when you engage in military operations,

21:46 the enemy obviously has a major say

21:48 in what you're doing and things do change unexpectedly.

21:51 And I'm sure that the American military planners would

21:54 have allowed for that and potentially even expected that.

21:57 As far as removal of Iran's nuclear highlyenriched uranium is concerned, yeah,

22:04 I think I I I think I mean there's two there's probably two options.

22:07 One is by agreement with Iran

22:10 to remove that highlyenriched uranium and the other

22:13 is going in without Iran's agreement by military force and pulling it out.

22:18 I think the second option is extremely unlikely.

22:22 I don't think President Trump nor indeed Prime Minister Netanyahu would uh

22:27 would countenance either of those two things or certainly the military option.

22:31 I think if if um the Iranians do agree

22:35 and it doesn't look too likely at the moment to have

22:38 the to give up basically their highlyenriched uranium then

22:41 of course it would require ground presence of some sort.

22:45 would require experts to actually collect the material

22:48 and move it safely out of the country

22:50 and it would of course require some form of security forces to do that.

22:54 So either way, yes, it does require people going in on the ground.

23:00 Benjamin Rab, welcome to Uncensored.

23:02 Um, I mean, I have to say the longer this has dragged

23:06 on, the more uh I'm baffled about why this was ever started because yes,

23:13 they've smashed up the uh Iranian military.

23:17 There's no doubt about that.

23:19 Um, but they haven't decimated it in the way Donald Trump talks about.

23:22 The IRGC is still clearly firmly in charge.

23:25 the son of the Ayatollah, the new supreme leader,

23:28 appears to now be running the show again after uh sustaining serious injury.

23:33 Um they've got complete control of the straight of Hormuse.

23:36 We've tried a blockade.

23:37 We pulled the blockade.

23:39 Um every time anyone tries anything with them,

23:42 they immediately attack one of the Gulf States.

23:45 It seems to me that strategically Iran has

23:47 proved to be a much more effective opponent

23:50 than perhaps Donald Trump uh suspected when he

23:54 was persuaded to join Israel on this mission.

23:57 Thank you for having uh thank you for having me on.

23:59 I'm glad to be here.

24:00 It's as a a refugee from the 79 revolution and someone who studied it in depth.

24:05 What's fascinating is that that revolution took two years to unfold.

24:10 For the first 6, seven, 8 months, for the first year,

24:12 everyone thought that the sha was in complete control,

24:15 that the military, that the country was completely unified under his command,

24:19 that the people were behind him.

24:21 There was a gross misreading of intelligence of the domestic situation.

24:25 All of this to say two things can be true at once.

24:27 Number one, that the American objectives

24:29 strategic have been vague and, you know,

24:31 at best, and that's being generous, and have not been met.

24:34 And two, we don't know exactly what is going on within the Iranian hierarchy.

24:39 Uh the Supreme Leader I would maintain is you know incapacitated.

24:42 Again we haven't seen him.

24:43 We haven't heard from him.

24:44 Um is he alive?

24:45 Is he barely alive?

24:46 I mean we assume he is based on intelligence reports.

24:49 Is he in charge?

24:50 I don't think so.

24:50 I think it's more of a military haunt led by three

24:53 or four of the top IRGC commanders who are speaking

24:56 on behalf of the Supreme Leader very much sort of in line

24:59 with Shia belief about the hidden Makti, the hidden uh imam.

25:04 And basically it's the clerics who speak on his behalf.

25:07 It's very sort of similar to that uh setup.

25:09 And then secondly, um Iran has a domestic problem.

25:13 It had one before this war started.

25:14 It had one going back years.

25:16 It is incredibly unpopular.

25:18 And that unpopularity and the pressure,

25:20 domestic pressure will only increase as the conditions in the country

25:23 worsen as hyperinflation um increases and as the ability

25:27 of the people to lead their lives

25:28 in the way they want becomes more and more challenged.

25:30 The question is can Iran hide that from the world

25:33 which they have tried to do by shutting off the internet.

25:36 So yes, you can have a a critical assessment of the US operation.

25:40 That does not mean that internally and domestically

25:43 the country is where its leadership wants it to be.

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26:26 And remember to tell them that I sent you, Paul Reichoff.

26:30 I mean it seems to me that what is most interesting

26:34 to observe is the failure so far of any kind of uprising

26:39 by the Iranian people which suggests that the IRGC still maintain

26:44 a tight control and there's a fear of that and obviously

26:47 they also don't want to be uh hit by flying

26:50 bombs and so on going over the cities but there has

26:54 been no uprising at the moment so the idea

26:56 of a regime change seems a long way way if not impossible.

27:02 But the straight of Hormuse issue has become a global emergency.

27:07 I mean, I I was reading today one of the Saudi

27:10 executives I think from the from one of the oil

27:12 companies saying that every week that goes by now

27:16 is ever more catastrophic for the flow of global oil,

27:21 gas, and general energy and fertilizer and so on.

27:24 And although some ships are getting let through,

27:27 that's only with Iran's control and agreement.

27:31 U so where do you think we are with this?

27:36 We are in uh what I would call a sucking chess wound for America's

27:40 military and economy that is now overflowing

27:43 and impacting the rest of the world.

27:44 And I think your question of the Iranian people is is

27:47 the right one to focus on because they're a very important barometer here.

27:50 No matter what Donald Trump says,

27:52 they will tell us when the regime if the regime is gone, we will know.

27:55 And right now, they're smartly keeping their heads down because

27:58 they can't trust the regime who is spent on killing them.

28:00 And frankly, they can't trust Donald Trump who's killed a lot of them as well.

28:04 So, they're in a very, very difficult position.

28:06 But back home, I think,

28:07 is where you're seeing more and more people calling for a regime change

28:10 because Donald Trump has entered us into a war that is overwhelmingly unpopular.

28:14 He's done something very, very special.

28:16 He's actually united all Americans against him and this war.

28:20 You've got the far magma right, you've got the far liberal left,

28:23 and you've got the middle that twothirds of Americans

28:25 think this war was a mistake and don't support it.

28:27 So Donald Trump got way ahead of his skis here

28:30 committing the military first and not committing the American public.

28:33 And so far, he's been all gas, no breaks.

28:36 There have been no guard rails in Congress.

28:37 I think they failed.

28:38 So he's got another unauthorized um unpopular war.

28:42 And now he's coming back to the table with Pete Hegath to ask for more money.

28:45 He spent already $25 billion.

28:48 He wants a new defense budget that's $1.5 trillion,

28:51 which is an additional $500 billion for Iran.

28:54 And America doesn't want it.

28:55 What they see is the straight of Harm is not open.

28:57 They see the enriched uranium unsecured.

28:59 They see the regime still in place.

29:00 They see them still having military capacity.

29:02 And maybe most importantly, back here in America,

29:04 they see gas prices at $4.30 a gallon.

29:08 And you've got 13 Americans dead, hundreds wounded.

29:10 So most Americans don't think this was worth it.

29:13 And American wars don't get more popular over time, they get less.

29:16 And that's the trajectory of the popularity of this war.

29:18 And Donald Trump's got a real political problem, but the rest of the world,

29:21 as you smartly noted, has a serious and growing economic problem.

29:25 Yeah.

29:26 I And I think this has been my concern from the start of this.

29:28 It wasn't out of any great love for the Iranian regime,

29:31 which I think has been a disgusting and oppressive

29:34 regime from the the day it took over in 79.

29:38 Matt Kennard, let's look at the there's a kind of asymmetric war

29:43 going on involving the straight of moves and we've discussed that earlier.

29:47 There's also an asymmetric war going on in terms

29:49 of the aspirations and interests of America and Israel.

29:53 It seems to me where all the mood music coming out of Netanyahu

29:57 and we saw a bit of it with Natali Bennett earlier is that they believe

30:02 this is nowhere near finished this mission that there cannot be any kind

30:06 of victory until Iran's nuclear capability is

30:09 destroyed and the enriched uranium has been removed.

30:14 Now, I don't see that they're anywhere near doing either of those things,

30:18 and nor is there any incentive right

30:19 now for Iran to surrender those things voluntarily.

30:24 Um, so where are we?

30:25 Because the pressure, as Paul Reichov rightly observed just then,

30:29 is piling on Donald Trump.

30:31 I I'm sure from the softening of his own rhetoric in the last few days,

30:35 he's desperate to get out of this thing, but he doesn't quite know how to.

30:39 Um and he's got the Israelis saying we cannot just walk away.

30:44 This job is only half finished.

30:47 Yeah, I agree.

30:48 And uh look, the whole um enrich uh uranium

30:53 um nuclear program is a is a smokeokc screen.

30:56 The reality of it is is Israel has wanted uh the regime change in Iran since 79.

31:02 So is parts of the US government as well.

31:05 and they're using the nuclear program as a way

31:08 of trying to uh uh basically distract from the real purpose.

31:12 And that's why, you know,

31:13 they they went in last year uh and there was a 12-day war and that was

31:18 called a success by the Israelis and the Americans

31:20 and we're back to where we were.

31:22 And and the other massive point is look,

31:23 we're talking about the the strategy and who might win and who might lose.

31:27 This was a major international war crime.

31:29 This was a violation of article 2 of the UN charter.

31:33 You can't just attack a country which is not

31:35 a threat to you and it's not a threat to them.

31:37 Uh and they should be indicted for it.

31:39 You know, we've already got the the prime minister

31:41 of Israel already has a restaurant out from the ICC.

31:44 Another one should go out to Donald Trump.

31:46 And I actually think it's a bit uh uh disgusting to talk about the war

31:50 in these kind in these terms of how

31:52 how can we open the straightfor blah blah blah.

31:54 We're talking about a a a major international crime where

31:57 the Americans and the Israelis killed nearly 200 school girls.

32:01 It's one of the first acts of the war.

32:02 And they claimed that it was a mistake.

32:05 But it might not have even been a mistake.

32:06 We've seen how the Israelis act.

32:08 Um we've seen how the Americans act and we've seen what they've done in Gaza,

32:11 what they've done in Lebanon.

32:12 They target civilians.

32:13 They target kids.

32:15 They want to send the impression that they will tolerate no resistance.

32:18 So we're dealing with outlaw rogue states that need to be held in check.

32:22 and the legal institutions can't do it.

32:24 The ICC and West France have done nothing.

32:26 In fact, European partners of Israel have not enforced it at all.

32:30 Even members of the ICC.

32:32 So, where do we go from there?

32:33 Do we we live in the law of the jungle now?

32:35 And I think that you're going to the reason that this will carry on.

32:38 The reason there's this breach is because they don't even know uh

32:42 what to do now because they they obviously believed going in hard

32:46 as you said that Netanyahu uh gave this PowerPoint presentation to Trump

32:50 and said look the IRGC will collapse if we kill the Ayatollah.

32:55 It didn't happen.

32:55 So where do they go now?

32:57 where this the uprising which they've been trying to ferment by the way

33:00 for for years and there was a good article in the Israeli

33:02 press which came out in recent days about how Mossad has been

33:05 fermenting unrest in Iran and was even involved in the December protests.

33:09 Um it's not working and as you said they

33:13 this this uh this criminal attack has actually had the opposite impact.

33:16 It's got people behind the government in Iran, people who previously weren't,

33:20 because they see that they're being attacked by hostile,

33:23 violent powers that want to take control

33:25 of their country because why is Iran a threat?

33:27 Iran's a threat because it's not under

33:29 the control of the United States and Israel.

33:31 The Gulf dictatorships,

33:32 many of them are worse than uh the the political situation in Iran.

33:37 Look at Saudi Arabia.

33:38 You get put to death for a tweet there.

33:40 Uh who's the biggest supporters of Saudi Arabia?

33:42 UK and US.

33:44 So the whole human rights stuff is rubbish.

33:47 The the uranium is uh uh nuclear uh program is rubbish.

33:50 And look, I'll end with this.

33:52 You led the uh charge against the war

33:54 in Iraq which was based around supposedly based around WMDs.

33:58 That was completely false.

34:00 So the nuclear deal is the same is part of the same dynamic.

34:03 And look, Tulsi Gabbard Gabbard,

34:05 who is who was who is the uh director of national intelligence for Trump,

34:09 she made uh uh um uh testimony in Congress

34:12 in March 2025 where she said the intelligence

34:16 community has come to the conclusion that Iran

34:19 has no nuclear program uh nuclear weapons program.

34:22 That's Tulsi Gabard saying that.

34:23 And then Trump obviously rubbished it a couple of months later.

34:26 But we we we're we're we live swimming

34:28 in propaganda and so much of this war is propaganda.

34:31 the the real reason they are bombing Iran is they want

34:34 to get rid of a government that does not do what they're told.

34:37 Okay, Colonel Kemp, I mean there's a lot of people

34:39 that share a lot of those views about this.

34:43 You know, my view is slightly more nuanced in that I can understand,

34:46 you know, for example, when the the Iranian nuclear capability was attacked

34:51 from the air last summer in that 12-day war,

34:54 it seemed a very clean, surgical,

34:57 effective military action with a specific purpose

35:01 that we were told had been incredibly successful.

35:03 Part of the failure of trust now is that we

35:06 were told after that 12-day war their nuclear capabilities been destroyed.

35:12 And yet here we were back within just eight,

35:14 nine months launching a full war against Iran to get rid

35:19 of their nuclear capability which they were about to imminently deploy.

35:22 And this reminded me of what happened with the Iraq

35:25 war in 2003 which as editor of a Daily Mirror newspaper

35:29 in the UK I very loudly opposed even though I had

35:33 my own brother fighting in it uh when it when it started.

35:36 Um, but the reason was I wasn't convinced

35:39 by the evidence that said that Saddam Hussein had

35:42 weapons of mass destruction and was about to use

35:45 them and could hit London in 45 minutes.

35:48 None of which turned out to be true.

35:50 So those with long memories, you know, are very cynical about this.

35:54 What would you say to try and reassure people

35:57 who are cynical that Iran did have the nuclear capability, was about to use it,

36:04 and how do you explain if that is the case

36:07 that what happened last summer clearly wasn't a success after all?

36:12 Well, I'm not I don't suggest that Iran was about to use a nuclear weapon.

36:17 I don't think Iran had a nuclear weapon,

36:19 but it was clearly and I think you know even there are plenty of conspiracy

36:24 theorists around who say that there is

36:27 no such thing as an Iranian nuclear program.

36:29 Well, I think the International Atomic Energy Agency would um

36:33 disagree with that and has disagreed with that in its reports.

36:36 Um I don't to my mind all the studying I've done I have no doubt

36:40 that Iran was working on a nuclear program

36:43 and and it's not just me who thinks that.

36:46 It's not just the West who thinks

36:47 that, but it's many countries in the Middle East

36:50 who saw that program in progress and were

36:54 themselves taking steps to arm themselves against it.

36:57 For example, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UEE,

37:00 all of them have been looking at the potential

37:03 for their own nuclear weapons program in light of what Iran's got.

37:07 And those people who say, "Oh, yeah,

37:09 well, Israel's also got nuclear weapons." Well,

37:12 it's it it's it says it it doesn't except that it has,

37:15 but I think most people agree it has.

37:18 But none of these countries ever started it embarked on their own

37:22 nuclear weapons program in defense against an Israeli nuclear system.

37:26 So, it's Iran that's the the threat and that's understood

37:29 I think by it's certainly understood by the United States administration.

37:33 It's understood by most of the Gulf

37:34 states and it's understood of course by Israel.

37:37 So I think that the reality is that there was a nuclear uh program.

37:42 It it it was potentially going to become

37:44 a nuclear weapon that's capable of being delivered certainly

37:47 around the region and potentially even further a field

37:50 and it had to be put a stop to.

37:52 As far as the um as far as the damage done in the 12-day war,

37:58 I don't think anybody as not no one

38:00 that I read or heard uh in positions of authority

38:04 around the US or elsewhere said that uh

38:07 the 12- day war had completely destroyed Iran's new Donald Trump did.

38:12 I I maybe he did.

38:13 I I I didn't see that.

38:15 He's he said he had been set back decades.

38:17 He's the president of the United States.

38:19 He was the one who basically ordered the strike.

38:21 So the very most powerful and important

38:24 person imaginable was the one who publicly declared,

38:27 "We have set back Iran's nuclear capability decades."

38:31 It turns out we hadn't even set it back.

38:33 But here's my point though, Colonel Kemp.

38:35 We hadn't, it turned out, even set it back eight months.

38:38 And in fact, the threat seems to have worsened,

38:40 according to those who support this war,

38:42 to the degree there had to be an immediate massive strike and a war launched.

38:48 And I and I find this those two positions extremely inconsistent.

38:52 How can we go from it's been set back

38:54 decades with this triumphant series of air strikes last summer

38:58 and now suddenly it's so so perilous and imminent

39:02 that we have to launch a massive war right now.

39:06 Well, set setting it back decades is not the same as destroying it.

39:09 And the reality is that whatever President Trump may have said,

39:12 until you actually remove the capability of creating

39:16 a nuclear program, you can't end it.

39:19 And and that what that means in reality, Iran Iran, you know,

39:23 even if you do remove all Iran's nuclear uh sorry,

39:26 enriched uranium, that doesn't end their program.

39:30 The only thing that I in my view will end

39:32 an offensive nuclear program by Iran is the removal of this regime.

39:37 And that of course is what most people desire.

39:40 Most people who are fighting this war anyway desire.

39:42 It's what Middle Eastern countries desire.

39:45 It's what Israel, right?

39:46 But that has ceased to be that cease to be one

39:48 of the aims of the war because they all know it's not happening.

39:52 And and so so they so they very they

39:55 have very quickly moved away from talking about regime change.

39:59 You don't hear anyone talking about regime change.

40:01 certainly not on the American side because President Trump

40:04 knows from his own intelligence people there is no chance

40:07 of this happening um unless there's a massive commitment

40:10 of troops on the ground which is politically impossible for him.

40:14 So I I do think I mean we bring uh Benjamin Rad in here.

40:17 I mean I just say yeah

40:20 I don't think the regime change was a specified objective of the war.

40:25 was the desired

40:26 but it was being talked about on day one again by President Trump

40:30 and you and I say there's no chance

40:32 of a regime change hap change happening I don't believe it's

40:35 going to happen as a result as a direct

40:37 result of military action but I do believe that within

40:40 the Iranian regime now both within the political echelon

40:44 and within the IRGC there is severe fracturing now

40:47 that in turn and Naftali Bennett said he can't

40:50 predict how long it's going to take for the reg you said years

40:53 well it could take years But it but it but certainly I think this action

40:57 will facilitate potential regime change by weakening

41:01 the regime and causing internal division in the regime.

41:04 The trouble is I okay let me bring in uh Benjamin Rad.

41:07 I mean the the problem is I just don't

41:10 see the hard evidence this regime has been weakened.

41:13 I can see they've lost their supreme leader a lot

41:16 of their top people but they seem to have been replaced very quickly.

41:20 Um the new lot appear to be pretty intrangent,

41:24 unwilling to do any kind of easy deal that Donald Trump would like them to do.

41:29 And the straight of Hormuse, which is the only really discernable thing we can

41:32 look at as to whether they have control or not,

41:37 they are controlling the straight of Hormoose in a way

41:39 that is causing enormous economic damage the longer it goes on.

41:44 And that is unsustainable for the Gulf States, for the United States,

41:48 for everybody apart from probably Israel who don't care

41:52 that much about straightfor but but they can afford not to.

41:55 But everybody else who who does care is seeing just massive economic hardship.

42:00 Yeah.

42:00 Let me let me touch on several points that have come up.

42:02 Number one, on the nuclear program,

42:05 Iran was through last summer a nuclear threshold state, a breakout state.

42:10 If we divide, if we separate the nuclear

42:12 program into the weapon side and the enrichment side,

42:15 uh you want to prevent Iran from enriching Iranian beyond the 20 19% threshold,

42:21 which is basically beyond that you're now passing civilian use,

42:24 medical grade use, energy use, right?

42:25 You're going into weapons grade territory, 90% being nuclear bomb level.

42:29 Iran had it's been proven,

42:31 it's been shown both by the both by IAEA and uh intelligence sources

42:35 had exceeded that 20% threshold in violation of the JCPOA or excuse me,

42:41 in violation of the NPT going back to uh the 1970s when it was first drafted.

42:46 So then what the United States would target would be Iran's ability

42:49 to construct a warhead because it's not

42:51 enough to actually enrich uranium to 90%.

42:53 You need to then make it small enough and workable

42:56 so that you can fit it onto a warhead.

42:58 It's possible the United States set

43:00 back its warhead production facility capabilities.

43:03 That we don't know.

43:04 We haven't received a lot of clarity on that.

43:06 We need to separate that from its enrichment capability.

43:08 It can still enrich if it has centrifuges.

43:10 Centrifuges buried under mountains.

43:12 That is the concern.

43:13 If your concern is that this is a country

43:14 that should not go beyond that 20% threshold,

43:17 no country under the NPT should, then that is a legitimate cause for concern.

43:21 Is it enough to go to war?

43:23 I'm not saying it is.

43:24 But I want to separate the two elements here.

43:26 Number two be yeah the second part of this becomes again revolutions which

43:31 is what we're talking about here when we say regime change we're talking about

43:34 a revolution they happen slowly until they

43:36 happen quickly you cannot predict the timetable

43:39 nobody can there's a whole host of factors number one there is an imbalance

43:43 of arms you have the Iranian people are not armed it wasn't until

43:48 the sha's army started defecting we started

43:50 seeing weapons pouring into the hands of civilians

43:53 we started to see a hesitation on the part of the sha's army

43:55 and police to shoot the protesters in 1979 that the tide began to turn.

44:00 We haven't seen that yet.

44:02 We might not see it, but to say sort of, okay,

44:04 why hasn't this population risen up?

44:06 Why haven't they done this?

44:07 They are genuinely afraid of being mowed down like they

44:09 were January 7th and 8th earlier of of this year.

44:12 So, there's all of those concerns at play.

44:14 Now, the straight of Hormuz,

44:16 that is a card that this regime gets to only play one time.

44:19 By that I mean it will be a matter of time before the Gulf States,

44:23 uh, regional allies, the international community,

44:26 trade, all of this figures out a way to circumn

44:29 or bypass the chokeold that Iran has on the street.

44:34 And it is a chokeold that goes both ways,

44:36 by the way, because if there is a blockade,

44:37 if there is a if there is a hesitation

44:39 of of of maritime traffic and trade to come through,

44:42 it impacts Iran as much as it impacts the um international community.

44:46 So if we're looking at a war of attrition based on who will capitulate first,

44:50 I don't think anyone can confidently predict how that will turn

44:52 out except that I think the international community will develop the means,

44:56 methods, and resources to eventually figure out a way

44:59 out of the straight whether it's bypassing through land routes,

45:02 other routes, and then what does Iran have left?

45:05 That's why I said it's a card it can play one time and one time only.

45:08 Then what will it do going forward?

45:10 So and then your question about the status of the regime,

45:12 again, there is a lot that we do not know.

45:15 We know that there's an internal division.

45:16 We know that the president for example

45:18 has been bypassed in the power structure completely.

45:21 We know that you know Khalibah who is a prominent figure

45:23 the the speaker of parliament has now been marginalized as well.

45:27 Where is power currently residing?

45:29 There is disarray.

45:30 There is a a I think a degree of dysfunction that we simply don't hear about.

45:34 But if you read the Persian press or Persian social media,

45:38 you catch glimpses of this.

45:39 You see the infighting, the inconsistent messaging that comes out.

45:43 That to me signals there's more beneath the surface than we can see.

45:47 Okay.

45:47 But can I just add one thing on on the enrichment?

45:50 So there was a the joint coordinated plan of action was signed in in 2015

45:55 by the Obama administration and P5+1 which is a security council and Germany.

46:00 Now the IAEA said that Iran was abiding by that which

46:04 said enrichment couldn't go ahead up to uh over 3.67%.

46:08 and and they were even taking out

46:11 the enriched uranium and being made into fuel rods

46:13 in France and taking it back which is

46:15 actually one of the demands that Trump's now making.

46:17 What happened in 2018?

46:20 Trump pulled out and then two years later assassinated

46:24 the most senior general in Iranian in the Iranian military,

46:27 Kasamsulammani, who had lured to Iraq with a drone.

46:30 So if you're Iran, you're looking at this thinking

46:33 we're not dealing with good faith actors here.

46:36 We're dealing with people that will assassinate

46:37 now our leader or assassinate our top generals.

46:40 There's been a war on Iran since 1979.

46:43 It's taken different uh guises,

46:45 but effectively it's been it's involved assassinations, murders.

46:50 Yeah.

46:50 No, I I think that's I think that's a perfectly valid point.

46:52 But that's important though.

46:53 Is that No, I agree.

46:54 I don't disagree.

46:55 It goes both ways.

46:57 Both ways.

46:57 Yeah, I don't disagree.

46:58 What right do we What right does Israel

47:00 have to say that Iran can't have nuclear weapons?

47:02 Iran's got nuclear weapons and didn't sign up for the MPT

47:05 which was referenced in from 19 Israel you mean?

47:07 So Iran's going around Sorry.

47:09 Israel, sorry.

47:10 Israel.

47:10 Yeah, Israel didn't sign up.

47:11 Okay, let me bring in I want to bring in Yeah,

47:13 this I've been asking that very question.

47:15 I I don't understand why Israel gets a pass

47:17 to not be transparent about it nuclear uh weaponry.

47:20 It should it should have to like everybody else does.

47:22 Uh Paul Reichov.

47:24 Okay, there's a lot of interesting views have been expressed here.

47:28 Do you see an offramp for Trump that could work?

47:31 I mean, do you see anything right now looking

47:33 at the whole state of play where you could

47:36 point to something the Iranians may give on which

47:40 Trump could claim as victory and get out of this?

47:45 That's what Trump's scrambling to find right now.

47:46 And I think here's the larger problem for the world.

47:49 The Iranian regime is a threat to huge parts of the world and can't be trusted.

47:54 Donald Trump is a threat to huge parts of the world and can't be trusted.

47:57 And most of us are somewhere in between.

47:59 And neither one of those groups really speak on behalf

48:01 of of their people in Iran or in America.

48:04 The biggest story in the world, in my view,

48:05 is that Donald Trump can do anything he wants

48:07 with the most powerful military the world has ever seen.

48:10 And nothing is stopping him.

48:11 The American Congress has failed to stop him.

48:12 His own party has failed to stop him.

48:14 The American people have failed to stop him.

48:16 Everyone from NATO to the UN to EU, they've all failed to stop him.

48:20 And this is bigger than Iran because Donald Trump,

48:22 I've said, is all gas, no breaks.

48:24 And this is the, I think,

48:25 ninth country he's conducted military operations in since he's become president.

48:28 and he's already talking about Cuba as the next stop.

48:31 He's always threatening Greenland.

48:33 He's talked about hitting Mexico.

48:34 So the real question is for the American public and especially for the Congress,

48:38 will you stop Donald Trump from doing anything?

48:40 They've been totally feckless.

48:42 They failed to exercise their constitutional authority.

48:44 And maybe now we have a circuit breaker on the funding.

48:46 This might be the place where Donald Trump

48:48 can be slowed down by members of his own

48:50 party and by the opposition party when they

48:52 ask for an additional $1.5 trillion for more war.

48:56 Most Americans don't want it.

48:57 So, he's trying to find that off-ramp because he knows the midterms

49:00 are coming if there are free and fair elections in the United States.

49:03 He knows Republicans are hemorrhaging,

49:05 especially his base is hemorrhaging because

49:07 there's another important part of this.

49:08 He lied to his base.

49:10 He told his base, "No new wars, no regime change wars,

49:13 no forevering wars." And that's what we've got now is a new forever war.

49:17 I fought in Iraq and I've seen this play before.

49:19 We've all seen this play before.

49:20 And what the American public doesn't want is 10 years,

49:23 20 years of a prolonged war being advocated for by chicken hawks

49:27 in Washington and around the world who want to send American boys

49:30 and girls to die in a land where we waste billions and trillions

49:33 of dollars and get nothing outcome

49:35 in return both economically and strategically.

49:37 So my biggest concern as an American is that this makes American weaker.

49:42 This makes us more vulnerable.

49:43 He's going to try to negotiate with China this week who's standing there just

49:46 licking their chops because 41% of our navy is in the Gulf right now.

49:51 So Iran has become a sucking chest wound for our military

49:54 and for our economy and has our enemies celebrating.

49:56 Iran is actually in a better position in my view strategically long term.

49:59 China is in the best position of all because they

50:02 can just sit there and watch us punch ourselves out.

50:04 So to answer your question, Pierce, yes, he's looking for an off-ramp,

50:07 but it doesn't look like there is one

50:08 because the Iranians refused to accept his terms,

50:11 and now he's got us over a barrel and what

50:13 could be a quagmire that could go on for years.

50:15 And I think most importantly,

50:16 I think this will be the number one issue in the 2028 election.

50:19 I mean, this is this is will become the seminal issue here in America.

50:22 And it's either the Democrats or Republicans within

50:24 his own party who are going to have to run

50:26 against the Iran war and creating that offramp because

50:28 it doesn't look like Donald Trump can find it.

50:30 Yeah.

50:31 And you're not hearing a lot from JD

50:32 Vance or Marco Rubio right now about this war.

50:35 And I suspect that's not a coincidence.

50:37 Um, thank you to my panel.

50:39 Uh, really interesting debate.

50:40 I appreciate it.

50:43 Well, two weeks ago, President Trump accused Kurdish groups of stealing

50:46 US weapons sent to support Iranian dissident.

50:48 The Kurds have also poured cold water on repeated suggestions.

50:52 They could be used as a proxy ground force in the Iran war.

50:55 US Kurdish relations though appear convivial.

50:58 Last night, the president shared to millions of his view

51:00 followers an interview praising him as a master dealmaker.

51:04 Well, Kubad Talibani, deputy prime minister of the Kurdistan region,

51:07 was the man with the warm words and he joins me now.

51:10 Welcome to Uncensored.

51:13 Thank you, Pier.

51:14 What should I say, Mr.

51:14 Morgan?

51:16 Pier is fine.

51:17 Um, what did you feel about President Trump reposting your interview last night?

51:21 Were you flattered or slightly appalled?

51:24 Obviously, I was I was flattered.

51:26 I was surprised.

51:27 Um, I I was getting a lot of messages from a lot of people

51:29 saying that the the president of the United

51:31 States has reposted your your article.

51:34 So, I I must say I I was a bit takenback um by the fact that he tweeted it,

51:39 but um you know, not not disappointed that he did.

51:43 the the thrust of your of your uh interview was that you declared that Trump

51:48 is master of the deal and can land a major deal to end the Iran war.

51:52 But as my panel had just been deliberating,

51:55 we can't work out how he does a deal that allows him to get

51:59 out of this anytime soon with any kind of legitimate claim to victory, can you?

52:06 I I think if he's left to his own devices and if

52:09 this is really a negotiation between the United States and Iran,

52:13 I think there's a deal to be had.

52:15 And I think if the deal is is broader than just

52:19 looking at the nuclear file or looking at the ballistics file,

52:23 but you're looking at a whole package that includes the economy,

52:27 that includes investment, that includes opening Iran up to the global economy.

52:32 I think there is definitely a deal to be

52:34 had because this is this is something that Iran wants.

52:37 I think they're tired of this uh isolation.

52:41 They have suffered obviously as a result of the war

52:43 but as a result of sanctions over many many years.

52:46 So they have fallen behind in terms of global development.

52:51 But at the same time the the opportunity

52:53 for growth for economic growth for Iran,

52:56 for the region, for US investment, for European investment,

52:59 for other investment in Iran is is huge.

53:02 So yes, I think if there is a deal,

53:05 if there is a negotiation that is between the US

53:07 and Iran and America is allowed to um execute this deal

53:13 um by by being allowed to meaning other countries do

53:16 not interfere and try to guide this in a different direction,

53:21 then I think yes, we can see a deal and and there could be a win-win here.

53:25 But to to do a deal, you've got to know who you're dealing with and got to know

53:29 that they are actually in a position to call the shots.

53:33 You're in a good position to answer this question, but I mean,

53:36 do we know who is currently running the Iranian regime?

53:40 Absolutely.

53:40 Um, absolutely.

53:41 I think there's too much talk of there being divisions

53:44 between the diplomats and the IRGC and the religious establishment.

53:49 Iran is more unified today than it has ever been.

53:53 So this notion of there's um these guys we

53:56 can work with and those guys we can't work with.

53:58 I think this has been overplayed um possibly by those that thought

54:02 that this war is going to end in 48 hours.

54:07 Um the reality is Iran is a unified nation

54:10 right now and people in Iran have rallied behind

54:14 their government whether they've liked them or not um

54:17 whether they were happy with their performance or not.

54:20 This war has done a lot to unify

54:23 Iran so that people who are negotiating on behalf

54:25 of Iran are representing Iran and I think

54:29 that makes it easier for the US to deal with.

54:32 Do we believe that the new supreme leader is even conscious?

54:36 Do we know anything about his his current condition?

54:40 I I have no information um on that.

54:43 But I think that is beside the point.

54:45 The reality is Iran is standing on its feet.

54:48 it has withtood a battering from from two of the world's most potent militaries.

54:54 Um, and you know, again,

54:57 go back to President Trump's initial statement at the outset of the war.

55:03 You could argue that he's achieved his military objectives.

55:06 Um, so, okay, fine, move on.

55:09 Let's talk about what are the the non-military objectives.

55:12 Now I say again if you look at this through the tiny

55:16 window of the nuclear portfolio and the ballistics missiles portfolio I don't

55:21 expect a deal but if you broaden this out to include

55:25 a whole host of economic packages and reintegration of Iran into the global

55:28 community you know coupled with with you know more incentives loans investments

55:35 world bank engagements IMF engagements I think there is a great deal

55:38 to be had um one that would suit Iran one that does

55:42 not look like one country is is twisting the arm of the other.

55:47 Again, for a deal to stick, it's got to be good for both sides.

55:50 And I think there's enough room to maneuver

55:53 within both countries direct objectives for there to be

55:57 a deal and for there to be uh a positive outcome out of all of this tragedy.

56:03 Fascinating uh take.

56:03 I want to just talk about something

56:05 that Scott Horton raised on my show last week.

56:09 He claimed it's a hoax that the Iranian

56:11 regime killed 40,000 protesters in January.

56:14 Let's take a look at what he said.

56:17 The media and in the government continue to push this lie,

56:19 this completely preposterous hoax,

56:22 Pierce that the Iranian government massacred 40,000

56:25 people in January to put down that insurrection.

56:28 First of all, we already know Donald Trump

56:30 admitted now that we're living in the future here.

56:32 Donald Trump admitted last week or two

56:33 weeks ago that Israel armed those Kurdish groups.

56:36 Those weren't peaceful protesters.

56:38 There were peaceful protests,

56:39 but the fighting was not the massacre of peaceful protests.

56:43 The fighting was fighting against Kurdish communists who were sacking police

56:47 stations and burning mosques and trying to overthrow the government there.

56:50 And then just think about that casualty count.

56:53 40,000.

56:54 That's like the Battle of Gettysburg.

56:56 We're to believe that the Ayatollah pulled that off,

56:59 something like that, maybe 10,000 more than

57:02 that, in January without carpet bombing his own city,

57:06 without committing some kind of Dresden,

57:08 without leaving tens of thousands of body bags everywhere.

57:13 And what do we see in the propaganda?

57:16 12 body bags.

57:17 And then they go, "Oh, how can you deny the massacre?" What what what do

57:21 you know about that uh reality of what happened in January?

57:27 We can just speculate.

57:28 Pers I really cannot argue to the number

57:31 of whether it was one person killed or 40,000 killed.

57:34 There were demonstrations.

57:35 Demonstrations were put down.

57:37 Um the impact of those demonstrations

57:39 and the and the violence in terms of putting

57:42 those demonstrations down can be speculated and and has

57:45 been speculated from small numbers to large numbers.

57:48 The reality that we deal with today is during

57:52 this war and in the aftermath of this war, we've not seen uprisings.

57:56 We've not seen people taking to the streets.

57:58 We've not seen what um the so-called experts that said there's

58:03 going to be um people taking matters into their own hands.

58:06 They haven't taken m matters into their own hands.

58:09 That's not to say they won't in the future,

58:11 but they haven't done so now and they're not doing so now.

58:14 Um, there is a regime in place

58:16 in in in in power which unlike what we saw in Syria,

58:22 unlike what we saw in Iraq in 2003, is not tied to one person.

58:28 Iran is a country that has institutions, political institutions, uh,

58:32 government institutions, religious institutions,

58:35 and yes, military and paramilitary institutions.

58:37 those institutions have been able to withstand

58:40 a battering um for almost two months now.

58:45 You know, we're dealing with a dynamic

58:48 in a post-war ceasefire environment where the world

58:52 needs the Straits of Hormuz to open up so the global economy can improve.

58:58 I strongly believe that President Trump wants a deal.

59:02 I strongly believe the Iranians want a deal.

59:05 So, I think the the the climate is conducive.

59:08 You could argue that there is probably only one

59:10 country in the world that doesn't want to deal,

59:13 and I think you you probably know better than me who that country is.

59:16 Yeah.

59:17 I mean, Israel's made it pretty clear that they

59:19 think the job is only finished if they physically

59:22 take the enriched uranium and have a guarantee

59:25 that there is no ongoing nuclear capability left in Iran,

59:29 which implies to me that they that they are planning more military action.

59:34 How can they guarantee that?

59:35 Pier, how can let's say they take away the enriched uranium.

59:38 Now the technology is there, the the knowledge is there, the intent is there.

59:44 All that will be missing is the financing.

59:46 So maybe it'll just start up again the the the next year.

59:50 So it's it's it's wrong to look

59:53 at this solely through the eyes of the nuclear portfolio.

59:57 It is Iran has much more to offer the world

59:59 than the threat of of of a nuclear Iran.

1:00:02 And I think we're missing we're missing the point here.

1:00:05 The world is missing the point here.

1:00:08 World powers, European countries are missing the point here.

1:00:12 Iran is a massive country, geographically massive.

1:00:15 It is a massive country in terms of a very civilized population.

1:00:20 And it's a country that has a very sophisticated governing institutions

1:00:25 and governing structures who may not be liked by the West,

1:00:29 may not be liked by the US,

1:00:30 but they've proven to be very resilient and very strategic.

1:00:34 Um, and again, I I keep going back to this.

1:00:38 The US wants a deal and they're looking for a deal

1:00:43 and I think if they're left to their own devices,

1:00:45 they'll they'll get a good deal out of this.

1:00:47 Kubani, I appreciate you coming on.

1:00:49 Thank you very much.

1:00:50 Thank you.

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