Trump claims Iran won't have nuclear weapons and deal is coming, Israel strikes in Lebanon resume

0:00 Let's begin this morning with Iran.

0:01 President Trump once again appears optimistic that a deal can be reached.

0:05 Yesterday, he said the US had quote very good talks with Thrron, adding quote,

0:09 "It's very possible they'll make a deal." However,

0:12 President has indicated that a deal was close before.

0:15 He's done that several times, and nothing has come of it yet.

0:18 Trump also threatened Iran with more strikes if

0:20 the US doesn't get what it has to get.

0:23 Tyrron is reviewing the latest US proposal to end the war.

0:26 main point of contention has been Iran's nuclear capabilities.

0:31 Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon because as tough as they are,

0:36 we want to keep them alive.

0:37 We want to keep all of you alive.

0:39 Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and they

0:42 won't and they've agreed to that among other things.

0:47 CBS News White House reporter Aaron Navaro joins us now.

0:50 Aaron, have the Iranians agreed to no longer enrich

0:53 uranium and to vow never to have a nuclear weapon?

0:58 Vlad, we have no confirmation of that.

1:00 And as you laid out, it's a pretty familiar story,

1:03 a familiar position that the White House finds itself in, which

1:06 is waiting for a response from Iran to its proposal.

1:09 There was a reported onepage 14point memorandum of understanding

1:13 that the US sent through Pakistan to Iran earlier this weekend.

1:17 And this expect the expectation is that Iran

1:20 will respond to that at some point today.

1:22 And that term sheet from the US declares an end to the war

1:26 and sets a 30-day window for more negotiations on Iran's nuclear capabilities,

1:31 the straight of Hormuz, and the lifting of economic sanctions that have

1:34 crippled Iran in the past decade or so.

1:36 Uh as you mentioned, the president claimed progress was made yesterday uh

1:40 and also seemed dismissive again of what we

1:42 saw from Iran this past Monday where its

1:44 military retali retaliated uh to uh Project Freedom,

1:49 that effort to escort ships that have been stranded in the strait.

1:52 Uh but the president also acknowledged that Iran has done

1:55 a 180 before and quote forgets uh what has happened.

1:59 Uh he did add that it is uh too soon to plan for direct talks or some sort

2:04 of meeting in Pakistan with Iran uh and said

2:07 that there is quote never a deadline for negotiations.

2:11 But as he has done in the past while talking about diplomacy,

2:14 he has kept the option for military action against Iran still on the table.

2:18 And we saw a little bit

2:19 of that with the US blockade yesterday where US Central Command

2:22 says that they shot at and uh seized uh

2:26 Iranian flagged oil vessel coming to an Iranian port.

2:30 So Erin, I think an angle that doesn't get talked

2:32 about enough in all of this is the China factor, right?

2:36 A close ally traditionally with Iran.

2:38 The president is heading to China next week for a very high stakes

2:43 meeting that we've all been anticipating going back to the trade war with China.

2:47 Now you have the Iran factor in all of this.

2:50 Um you do you think that he might be

2:52 trying to get a deal done before that visit?

2:54 How does Beijing factor into all this?

2:57 Yeah.

2:57 And that meeting was postponed twice in part because of this war.

3:00 I'm sure the preference is for President Trump

3:02 to reach a deal as soon as possible though he

3:05 even acknowledged it might be too soon to plan

3:07 for any sort of peace deal signing ceremony next week.

3:10 Uh that being said, in recent days, China has really played a role in uh

3:15 talking to Iran directly uh getting them to deescalate

3:18 and encourage encouraging them to reach a deal

3:21 uh with the United States a diplomatic solution.

3:24 We saw in Beijing this week uh the Chinese

3:26 foreign minister meet with his Iranian counterpart and pressing

3:30 for the reopening of the street of Vermuse uh

3:32 noting not only the impact it's happened it's uh

3:35 the impact it's having on China's oil and export

3:38 markets but the impact it's having around the globe

3:41 and as you mentioned in readouts the two leaders said

3:44 that the each other's respective countries are trustworthy strategic partners.

3:48 Uh we also know that China was especially

3:50 concerned after this past Monday where you saw Iran

3:53 launch attacks at the United Arab Emirates as over

3:56 300,000 Chinese residents uh live in the UAE.

3:59 So uh in potentially next week in uh

4:03 the meeting with President Trump and President Xiinping,

4:06 you could see President Trump try and get China to continue

4:09 to play a role in kind of brokering a peace deal.

4:12 Uh though publicly the president believes that he's close on his own.

4:16 All right, Aaron Navaro reporting from the White House for us.

4:18 Aaron, thank you.

4:21 For more on the situation in the Middle East,

4:23 we're joined by CBS News senior foreign

4:25 correspondent Holly Williams, who's in Tel Aviv.

4:27 So, Holly, what are we hearing from Iran about the prospects of a deal?

4:34 Hey there, Kelly and Vlad.

4:35 Well, a spokesman for Iran's foreign ministry said

4:37 that Iran is reviewing uh a US proposal,

4:40 but yesterday another senior Iranian official dismissed the proposed

4:44 peace deal reported by Axios as an American wish list.

4:49 That proposal uh includes reportedly includes

4:52 a moratorum on Iranian nuclear enrichment

4:55 as well as an end to restrictions in the street of Hormuz.

4:58 The problem I think for the US is that uh the war

5:02 with Iran has at least arguably

5:05 actually strengthened Iran's negotiating position because while

5:08 the US is obviously militarily dominant

5:11 by paralyzing traffic uh through the straight

5:14 of Hormuz sending gas prices soaring uh and damaging the global economy,

5:18 Iran has actually piled pressure a deal to end the conflict and quickly.

5:25 Iran obviously knows that and it will likely use it in any negotiations.

5:31 So, Israel yesterday, Holly, launched its first strike on the Lebanese

5:35 capital since last month's ceasefire with Hezbollah.

5:38 What can you tell us about the situation in Beirut

5:40 and could it impact the prospects of a deal with Iran?

5:45 Well, Vlad, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement

5:48 that he had personally approved the strike

5:51 in Beirut targeting a Hisbala commander.

5:54 Uh, Israel's military named him as Akhmed Ali Balut.

5:58 They said he's been killed and they described

6:00 him as the commander of Hisba's elite Radwan force,

6:03 which Israel says is responsible for dozens of attacks

6:06 on Israeli soldiers in recent months and is directed by Iran.

6:09 Hisba, as you know, is an Iranbacked

6:12 militant group and political party in Lebanon.

6:14 It's also designated a terrorist organization by the US.

6:18 Now, despite a ceasefire agreed on April 16th,

6:21 Hisba and Israel have continued to exchange fire.

6:24 Israel's repeatedly hit southern Lebanon with air strikes,

6:28 saying it's targeting Hisbala infrastructure.

6:30 According to Lebanon's health ministry,

6:32 those strikes have killed over 120 people in the last week alone.

6:37 Meanwhile, Hisbala has targeted northern Israel with rockets and drones,

6:41 killing an Israeli defense contractor with a drone strike last week.

6:44 Israel is also occupying a strip of land in southern Lebanon uh

6:48 where its military has been carrying

6:50 out large-scale demolitions in towns and villages.

6:53 The big picture, I think,

6:54 is that an ongoing conflict with one of Iran's proxy groups here in the Middle

6:59 East almost certainly makes it much more

7:01 difficult to negotiate a peace deal with Iran.

7:05 All right, Holly Williams for us in Tel Aviv.

7:07 Thank you so much.

7:09 All right, let's bring in Jason H.

7:11 Campbell.

7:11 He's a senior fellow at the Middle

7:13 East Institute and a former Pentagon official.

7:15 Thanks so much for joining us.

7:17 Uh so the US Navy is still enforcing a blockade on the Straight of Hormuz,

7:22 but the White House is giving mixed

7:23 signals about whether this war is actually over.

7:27 Uh so for the thousands of troops that are in the region,

7:31 what is happening there?

7:32 Are they just essentially on standby?

7:36 Well, partially.

7:36 I think for the most part the assets right now

7:39 are devoted to uh maintaining this naval blockade which is ongoing.

7:44 Uh you have now uh two marine expeditionary units uh in the region.

7:49 Uh at least one we've heard reports have been used to board uh

7:53 ships that are suspected of being uh under the Iranian flag thus far.

7:57 Um but but otherwise, you know, used in very limited uh uh ways right now,

8:03 but are are certainly on on call for uh any new orders.

8:08 You've got an element of the 82nd uh airborne

8:11 uh division that has arrived in in uh the region.

8:14 I believe is in Kuwait.

8:16 So there's a couple of thousand ground forces,

8:18 paratroopers there that again are on call should they be needed.

8:22 Uh but right now it's it's you know largely uh maintaining

8:26 the the naval blockade and for the the two carrier groups

8:29 in the region just again uh maintaining some level of deterrence

8:34 and for the ships around them you know ensuring that that they are protected.

8:38 Well Jason I want to draw on your experience at the Pentagon

8:42 uh helping to negotiate some semblance of peace with the Taliban.

8:47 What does the end of this all look like?

8:49 You know this war?

8:50 How much can the US withdraw from the region?

8:53 Would they withdraw from the region and still keep it protected?

8:58 I think that very much remains to be seen.

9:00 I mean, what we're seeing now is, I think,

9:02 this slow recognition that ultimately there's going

9:05 to have to be some political accommodation here

9:08 to uh get back to to some level of whatever the new normal will be postconlict.

9:14 Uh so the US right now is uh maintaining

9:18 its its threat to use military force if needed.

9:21 It's got some significant uh certainly air power

9:24 remaining in the region should it be called on.

9:26 Um, but ultimately we're seeing uh what's been a thus far

9:30 a fairly slow drip of of at least uh open source statements

9:36 between the the uh Iranian regime and now the White House which

9:41 uh again with this reported one-page uh document um you know might

9:46 be a step back from the 15 points it had proposed

9:49 a couple of months ago that really maintained I think some

9:53 of the more maximalist uh demands that that the administ administration has

9:57 been uh calling for now for for months if not over a year.

10:02 So you you you manage the NATO portfolio in support

10:05 of resolute support mission uh that mission in Afghanistan.

10:09 Uh how do you see this now just based on your experiences?

10:13 I mean the president has been angrily pushing back

10:16 on NATO allies uh now suggesting that he's going

10:19 to remove American troops that have been stationed

10:22 in Germany essentially since the end of World War II.

10:24 Um would NATO have made a difference in the outcome of this conflict, this war,

10:31 or are they rightfully looking at this and saying this was a war that was

10:35 launched without are consulting us so why are we now being asked to support it?

10:40 Yeah, look, relationship management is a huge uh part of the NATO alliance

10:45 and I think in this case uh the sequencing was quite frankly done all wrong.

10:51 if the United States was uh seriously contemplating uh

10:55 the war it ended up launching with Israel uh

10:58 and and had designs on on doing this uh

11:02 with the alliance or at least with the support of the alliance,

11:04 it it should have and would have consulted uh Brussels uh I think much earlier.

11:11 Um now we've seen again the the war did not

11:13 go as well as the uh the White House thought.

11:16 the the quick victory was was obviously uh not going to to happen.

11:21 And now they're backtracking and trying to uh

11:24 get the NATO countries to participate in a war

11:28 that quite frankly still hasn't uh uh clarified

11:31 a a feasible and and clear strategic ending.

11:35 So uh never mind in some cases the NATO countries don't

11:38 have the capabilities uh to to exercise some of these you know

11:44 again uh uh open-ended missions such as straight opening the straight

11:47 of fort which is a very

11:49 complicated and timeconuming and resource inensive endeavor.

11:53 Can I that's such an excellent point Jason before we

11:55 go to sort of make a fine point of it which

11:58 is I think back to uh President Bush uh

12:01 in the first Gulf War uh and how uh President HW Bush

12:06 um how he assembled this grand coalition of allies even

12:10 uh countries that we normally did not uh at least

12:13 on the face of it back then um do a lot

12:17 of uh geopolitical strategy with um countries in the Middle East,

12:21 countries all across Europe of NATO before they launched

12:25 the attack uh uh in that first Gulf War.

12:28 It was done similarly again in the wake of 9/11.

12:31 Uh why was that never on the table to go

12:34 to our allies and partners uh in the region?

12:36 Because it's not just the United States and Israel

12:38 that have had problems with with uh Iran.

12:41 Other countries, including countries that are

12:43 surrounding that uh Iran, have had issues.

12:46 Why not go to them and say, "Here, we're doing this.

12:47 We'd love your support." Well, I look,

12:50 I don't want to be overly speculative, but you know,

12:53 it seems we've learned enough now that the expectation

12:56 was that this was going to be a quick victory,

12:58 perhaps even akin to the success uh we saw

13:02 in Venezuela in terms of removing the leader and finding,

13:05 you know, a more compliant uh number two or other

13:09 senior official willing to work with the United States.

13:12 Um, so I I think I would just chalk

13:14 this up to to really poor assumptions going into this.

13:18 uh not only in terms of of uh how complicated

13:22 it would be to to to tear down a regime

13:24 which is really you know now interwoven in the fabric

13:27 of Iranian society but in understanding how the Iranians would

13:31 likely respond uh to these attacks and and what we've

13:36 got now is is this uh again um ongoing you

13:40 know level of tension if not outright conflict that doesn't

13:43 have a an easy end in in the near term.

13:47 Jason H.

13:48 Campbell with some analysis for us this morning.

13:50 Jason, thank you very much.