MS NOW Highlights - May 8

0:00 We have major breaking news on the redistricting

0:03 fight between Republicans and Democrats nationwide.

0:05 The Virginia Supreme Court just struck

0:08 down the new Democrat-friendly redistricting plan

0:11 that voters just approved at the ballot box a few weeks ago.

0:15 Let's bring in MS Now's legal affairs reporter Fallon Gallagher.

0:18 And this ruling just came out.

0:19 I know you're still reading in Fallon.

0:21 What are you learning?

0:22 Yeah, this is one of there were a few cases pending before the Virginia

0:25 Supreme Court and this is the first one that happened to reach it.

0:29 So, the Virginia State Supreme Court has struck down the new congressional

0:32 map that was approved by voters on the basis that the special session,

0:36 the special legislative session that was called to create

0:39 this map was a violation of the state's constitution.

0:41 And I want to read from a key graph in this ruling.

0:44 It says, "On March 6th, 2026,

0:46 the General Assembly of Virginia submitted to Virginia voters a proposed

0:51 constitutional amendment that authorizes partisan gerrymandering

0:54 of congressional districts in the Commonwealth.

0:56 We hold that the legislative process employed to advance this proposal

1:00 violated article 7 section 1 of the constitution of Virginia.

1:04 This constitutional violation incurably taints the resulting

1:08 referendum vote and nullifies its legal efficacy.

1:11 Now of course uh they are taking issue here

1:13 with the way that this legislative session was called.

1:16 I need to double check,

1:17 but I believe it was because state legislators called that session

1:20 and they don't actually have the authority to do so.

1:23 Um, but this was this is basically they're overturning

1:26 the map on the basis of which it was created,

1:29 not based on any sort of way the lines were drawn,

1:32 but on the procedural grounds in which this map came to be.

1:35 So, could the legislature try again?

1:37 What's next?

1:37 This is a final ruling because it is from the state supreme court.

1:41 They might be able to try a different way if they

1:44 call the legislative session in a different way and try redistricting again.

1:47 But it appears at this point as again we are still reading

1:50 this decision that this map will not be in play for 2026.

1:53 And that being said,

1:54 what does that mean for the voters and what maps they're actually using?

1:58 If if this map, this new map is blocked,

2:01 theoretically they will be using the maps

2:03 that have been on the books before this.

2:04 So the map that they would have used in 2024 should be

2:07 the map that will hold now for the midterm elections this year.

2:10 And so politically, this is bad news for Democrats, good news for Republicans.

2:15 Fallon, I'll let you get back to reading in so

2:17 you can bring us more details as you get them.

2:19 Thank you.

2:21 Hi there everyone.

2:22 It's 4:00 in New York on a Friday.

2:25 Donald Trump's chaos, incompetence,

2:26 and governing at a time of war by true social post has come back

2:30 to bite him in the you know what when it comes to the war with Iran.

2:34 An abrupt decision to launch an operation led to push back from stalwart allies

2:39 of the United States in the region

2:42 and a humiliating public climbdown by Donald Trump.

2:45 Multiple outlets including NBC News, the Wall Street Journal,

2:48 and the New York Times are today able to report that Donald Trump

2:52 was forced to stop what the administration

2:55 had dubbed Project Freedom and announced

2:57 it was a plan to help ships cross the straight of Hormuz after

3:01 Saudi Arabia refused to let the US military use its bases and airspace.

3:05 Here's how NBC News describes it.

3:08 Quote, Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing

3:10 Project Freedom on social media Sunday afternoon.

3:13 the official said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia.

3:17 The call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince

3:20 Muhammad bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two US officials said,

3:25 forcing the president to pause project freedom in order

3:28 to restore US military access to the critical airspace.

3:32 Donald Trump angered other allies in the region as well.

3:36 A Middle Eastern diplomat with knowledge of the matter told

3:39 our colleague David RH that Donald Trump failed to tell Oman,

3:43 the country that sits on the other side of the straight of Hormuz from Iran.

3:47 Other outlets report that Kuwait and Qatar were not informed either.

3:51 The Trump administration insists that allies were notified in advance.

3:55 Donald Trump claimed on True Social that the operation

3:59 was paused because of progress in negotiations,

4:02 but there is no known reporting to suggest that that is actually the case.

4:07 Regardless, the operation was not going particularly well for the United States.

4:11 Just two ships made it through the straight of Hormuz in 36 hours.

4:15 Here's how the Wall Street Journal describes

4:17 the journey of one of those two ships.

4:20 from that reporting.

4:21 Quote, "The Alliance Fairfax,

4:23 a towering black and white car carrier ship that had

4:26 been stranded in the Persian Gulf for over two months,

4:29 was finally making a break for it." Quote,

4:32 "You are all set to go." US military officer radioed as the ship glided through

4:36 the Straight of Hormuz on Monday and swung

4:39 around the peninsula at the northern end of Oman.

4:43 Safe travels.

4:43 Soon after, Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones at commercial

4:47 ships at the US Navy and at one of America's allies,

4:52 the United Arab Emirates, where an oil transit hub was set ablaze.

4:56 US helicopters sank Iranian speedboes and Iranian drones hit a civilian ship.

5:02 The intervening hours included the most serious escalation in the conflict

5:06 since President Trump declared a ceasefire in the war in April.

5:10 That's where we That's where things stand right now.

5:13 That's where we are.

5:15 A ceasefire in which both the US military and Iran are attacking each other,

5:20 but also claiming that the ceasefire remains in effect.

5:23 US Central Command announced this morning that US forces attacked

5:27 two ships that were violating the blockade on Iranian imports.

5:31 Donald Trump set back on his heels after backlash from close

5:35 allies over a hastily arranged plan to break Iran's control

5:39 over one of the world's most important waterways is unfortunately where

5:43 we begin today with some of our favorite reporters and friends.

5:47 Former deputy national security adviser to President Obama Ben Rhodess is back.

5:51 Also joining us, PAC News senior political columnist

5:53 and national affairs analyst John Halman is here.

5:56 And with me at the table,

5:57 our national security reporter, the affformentioned David Ro.

6:01 Um, everyone wants America to win.

6:04 Everyone wants American um military assets and any commercial assets to be safe.

6:13 Um, no one is rooting against America or in this capacity Donald Trump.

6:18 Um, but there is an unavoidable reality to the fact I mean it is really hard

6:25 to piss off Saudi Arabia and we have

6:28 done that in in 50 years this hasn't happened.

6:31 That's what's so extraordinary and the fact that the fact that the president

6:35 launched this incredibly important operation and and it might have succeeded.

6:39 It's it's it was to reopen the straight of horm by force.

6:43 It would have taken Iran's big leverage point away from them.

6:46 It would have brought down energy prices eventually and it was

6:50 very well planned and it was only America could do it.

6:53 They complain about other countries, but there was a 100 aircraft providing

6:56 24/7 sort of air cover for this operation.

6:59 And it is astounding that the president and his aids did

7:03 not inform any of our allies in the country from Saudi Arabia,

7:08 the stalwart you talked about, to Aman,

7:10 which actually borders the waterway and should have known.

7:13 And it's incredible.

7:14 And then the Wall Street Journal's reporting,

7:16 great reporting by our former colleagues at NBC breaking it.

7:20 And then Kuwait closed its air sport airspace also.

7:23 It's it's astonishing again how many unforced errors are happening.

7:27 And then lastly, the president lies about why he ends the operation.

7:33 He claims it's because there's progress in the negotiations with Iran when

7:37 in fact it's because Saudi Arabia

7:39 and Kuwait closed their airspace to US aircraft.

7:42 Donald Trump has it's like a signature

7:45 of his rule to um alienate our NATO allies,

7:49 but it's a new feature to alienate um our M East allies.

7:54 Just talk about the risks for him having

7:57 ostracized all of our NATO allies and now um put America in a place of frankly

8:03 unprecedented tensions with these allies in the Middle East.

8:06 Um the risk will be clear next week when he goes to China.

8:09 And he's not going as a weak leader with plenty of allies around him.

8:13 Instead, he's systematically alienating people

8:16 with off-the- cuff ideas or insulting them.

8:20 I mean, if you just go back to Canada being the 51st state,

8:24 Greenland was, you know, then the focus and then this, you know,

8:28 war of choice in Iran and and just

8:30 belittling the Europeans who have lots of mind sweepers,

8:32 lots of ships that could have been part of this.

8:34 And even if he wanted to go to war with Iran,

8:37 he could have done it in the Bush way.

8:40 George HW and George W.

8:42 Getting a coalition together, going to the UN Security Council,

8:45 saying Iran is violating these things.

8:47 Ben and can say more about this, but instead

8:50 it's a go it alone and insult your allies.

8:53 And then again to to launch this operation without telling, you know,

8:56 Saudi Arabia and all these countries was just a huge mistake

8:59 that I think will haunt this this country and his presidency.

9:04 Ben Rhodess to be a fly on the wall when NBS um for whom

9:08 Donald Trump towed the line on Kosigible

9:11 better than than literally some Saudis did.

9:13 Um for NBS to say I've seen enough, I'm out is just an extraordinary point to be

9:20 pushed to when it comes to Donald Trump's conduct.

9:24 Yeah.

9:25 And I think there are a couple things to it.

9:26 I mean to can return to your opening, Nicole,

9:28 I think the problem is nobody knows what America is trying to win.

9:31 Um, you know, it started with regime change and then,

9:34 you know, the destruction of the nuclear program.

9:37 Those things, you know, did not come to fruition.

9:39 Now, now winning just seems to be opening

9:41 a straight of water that was open before the war.

9:44 I mean, and and and so the fact that Trump

9:47 doesn't even really know why he's doing what he's doing,

9:50 uh, I think is a reason why these allies

9:53 just don't trust him because they they're not consulted.

9:55 They've not been brought in at any juncture of this war.

9:59 And then to focus specifically on the Saudis,

10:02 the cost to these countries is much much

10:05 higher than the cost to the United States.

10:07 And so already, you know,

10:09 Qatar has had the largest liqufied natural gas field in the world taken offline.

10:13 Huge hit to their revenue.

10:15 Kuwait, all these Gulf states have suffered dramatic economic

10:17 consequences that are going to be lasting for years.

10:20 Never mind the fact that our European Asian allies are suffering

10:24 far more shortages than just high gas prices than Americans are suffering.

10:27 And look, if he did this Project Freedom,

10:29 what the Saudis knew is that the Iranians would start attacking

10:32 again and they'd start attacking Saudi

10:34 oil facilities and Saudi energy infrastructure.

10:35 And so if you're Saudi Arabia,

10:37 if you're NBS and you're sitting there and thinking,

10:39 "This guy has not made me a partner from day one.

10:43 Uh he's bungled this whole war.

10:45 I don't even frankly know why he's doing it.

10:47 even if the Saudis don't like the Iranians.

10:50 Now, why should I allow my airspace used and recognize

10:53 that I'm going to be attacked by Iranian drones

10:56 and missiles and potentially suffer huge economic consequences

10:59 for a war that I don't even understand at this point?

11:02 Uh that's where we are.

11:04 And it is a huge geopolitical shift because as David points out, the Saudis,

11:09 the Qataris, the Amiradis,

11:11 people with enormous resources have options and those options include Beijing.

11:15 uh they can start to realign themselves

11:18 geopolitically and I think that's going to happen

11:20 frankly I mean not totally but they're certainly going to hedge um and what

11:24 we're going to see is the consequences of this war can be felt

11:27 for many years because if you have

11:29 Gulf states and Europeans and others moving away

11:31 from the United States making their own

11:33 arrangements with the Chinese and others you

11:34 know that's a a totally new world that we're going to be in because

11:38 of this war um and let me just press you not just a new world

11:41 but a more dangerous world I mean

11:44 the the only country you haven't mentioned is Russia.

11:47 Um but Russia's alliance with Iran in an operational

11:50 manner seems to be strengthened as well.

11:54 Not just that, I mean there a couple things to that.

11:56 First of all, the the the Pentagon has not been transparent

11:59 at all about the damage that's been done to US facilities

12:03 across the region and the reporting which is not surprising to me

12:06 is that that damage is far more extensive than we knew.

12:09 Uh very pinpoint strikes have been

12:11 launched by the Iranians against US facilities.

12:14 Uh that's probably uh and again I don't have intelligence.

12:18 I would assume because the Russians are

12:20 providing intelligence and information to the Iranians

12:23 to help them do literal damage to the United

12:26 States military presence in the Middle East.

12:28 Never mind the fact that driving up the price of oil as this war is

12:32 done that pads uh Putin's war machine because

12:35 that's how Putin gets revenue from selling oil.

12:37 Never mind the fact that the United States

12:40 has literally had waiverss on sanctions that prevented

12:42 the sale of Russian oil to countries like India

12:46 because we're so worried about the price of gas.

12:49 So this this is just a geopolitical gift from the heavens to Russia and China.

12:53 And it's just been devastating to US allies in Europe,

12:57 in Asia, and in the Middle East.

12:59 And it just means that the United States, you know, can't be trusted.

13:03 These countries, I think, are exasperated.

13:05 The Gulf countries tried to flatter Trump.

13:07 In many cases, they contributed to enriching Trump's family.

13:10 Um, and now they see that at the end of the day,

13:13 I one more thing that I hear from people in the Gulf,

13:15 too, is that we provided a lot of missile defense

13:17 support to Israel that we did not provide to the Gulf.

13:21 Um, so they felt a bit like left out in the cold after this war began

13:25 that that that many of them opposed and didn't

13:27 support because they knew what the Iranian response would be.

13:29 So I I think it it's hard for people to understand just how much this has

13:34 shaken the Gulf Arabs who literally have

13:36 an entire security paradigm that is based on stability,

13:39 predictability, and reliance on the United States.

13:43 By now, you've probably seen the news that Virginia's

13:45 Supreme Court struck down that state's voter approved congressional maps.

13:48 Maps that were meant to counter Republican redistricting elsewhere.

13:52 Maps that voters voted on themselves recently.

13:57 If you saw that news and screamed into your pillow

13:59 or maybe screamed into this street this morning or at your neighbor,

14:03 your office mate, you are not alone.

14:05 It is absolutely infuriating that Republicans have

14:08 engineered this election for their own advantage.

14:11 That they are eliminating congressional seats

14:13 that have long represented majority black communities,

14:15 that they are erasing representation for majority black communities.

14:19 It is maddening that Democrats attempts

14:21 to counter that scheme have faced such challenges.

14:24 While the Supreme Court has paved the way for Republicans to go further,

14:28 but it's also important to remember that none

14:30 of this means Republicans will hold on to power this November.

14:33 The Republican party still has to run on their disastrous record.

14:36 Everything I just mentioned and so much more.

14:39 Remember the big ugly bill?

14:41 And voter enthusiasm is still on the side of Democrats who have

14:45 won a slew of off-year and special elections since Trump took office.

14:48 If all of their efforts are successful,

14:51 Republicans could pick up as many as 19 House seats from redistricting.

14:54 While Democrats are still expected to pick up as many as six,

14:57 that means if everything goes their way, Republicans could give themselves a 13

15:01 seat advantage heading into this November.

15:04 In 2018, the last time there was a midterm referendum on Donald Trump,

15:08 Democrats picked up 41 seats,

15:10 and Donald Trump is more unpopular now than he was then.

15:13 Democrats can still win back the House this November.

15:16 That is clear.

15:17 What's also clear is that Democrats cannot just focus on winning

15:20 back the House because in order to counter Republican redistricting,

15:23 Democrats are going to have to keep

15:25 fighting to redraw congressional maps after this November.

15:27 And in order to do that, they're going to need to win

15:30 control of state legislatores this November and protect the ones they have.

15:34 The fight for a fair democracy is just the beginning.

15:36 And it's going to run through state governments across the country and it's

15:40 going to take a lot of energy and organizing in this election and beyond.

15:44 So, where does it start and what happens next?

15:46 Joining me now are two of the smartest political minds I know.

15:50 They have won elections.

15:51 They have been in every room there is about

15:53 strategy and communications and ads and all of it.

15:56 Dan Feifer was a senior adviser to President Barack Obama.

15:59 He's now of course a co-host of Pod Save America.

16:02 And Quinton Folks was the deputy

16:03 campaign manager for Kla Harris's presidential campaign,

16:06 former campaign manager for Raphael Waro successful Senate campaign in Georgia.

16:10 Politico recently described him as the strategist who beat the money

16:14 machine after his work on Juliana Stratton's Senate campaign in Illinois.

16:19 Uh so that's a lot of campaigns between the two of you.

16:22 Uh I think you know I just said this and I know you wrote

16:25 something this morning too Dan when I saw the news this morning I did

16:28 want to punch the wall and I think that probably is how a lot

16:32 of people out there felt or or worse or scream or all those things.

16:35 Um, and there's clearly a lot that has happened

16:37 over the last eight days that is maddening, infuriating,

16:40 and it's reshaping, of course, the political dynamics,

16:44 and there are long a lot of questions about the longerterm impact.

16:46 We'll talk about that, but let me just start with the more immediate one,

16:49 which is where do you stand on Democrats

16:51 chances of retaking the House this November,

16:53 the challenges, and and what what the path looks like.

16:58 Yeah, I think Democrats were prior to today

17:00 and certainly prior to the Supreme Court decision last week,

17:03 overwhelming favorites to take the house.

17:05 Right now, I think they are still favorites to take the house.

17:08 It is a we are have a larger hurdle to overcome it,

17:11 but we still are well positioned.

17:13 Donald Trump's still incredibly unpopular.

17:15 The political environment cannot be better for Democrats.

17:18 As you mentioned, there's a massive enthusiasm advantage for Democrats

17:21 and the Republicans like their best case scenario is unlikely to happen, right?

17:25 Even if with the old maps in Virginia,

17:27 Democrats will almost certainly pick up one seat

17:29 in the second district and have a very good shot

17:31 at pick picking up another seat in the first district

17:34 in Florida where they try to add these four seats.

17:36 It's not a guarantee Republicans win all four of those seats.

17:39 You know, Alabama has is under a wants to change their map,

17:43 but they are under a court order preventing them from doing so.

17:46 So, they have to go to court.

17:47 You know, Mississippi wants to they already had their primaries.

17:50 That's going to cause legal challenges.

17:51 South Carolina has it.

17:52 So, I think it's going to end up somewhere not the worst case scenario,

17:54 but Democrats are still well positioned and we certainly should

17:56 double down and keep fighting because we can do this.

18:00 What do you think, Quinn?

18:01 What does this change?

18:02 How does this change the forecast much?

18:04 Um, and and where do you think uh is the best opportunity here as we look ahead?

18:11 Look, I mean, I echo everything that that Dan said.

18:14 I I also believe that, you know, we should look at this as an opportunity.

18:17 I mean, inherently when you break up

18:19 these Democratic districts that Republicans are trying to do,

18:22 clearly we would love to have uh our districts

18:24 and not have Republicans try to change the rules.

18:26 Uh but we also have to look at the momentum that Democrats had before

18:29 all this started because of the unpopularity

18:31 of Donald Trump and the Republican party.

18:33 Uh and we should invest in those districts.

18:35 Inherently, when you break up these districts,

18:37 you make the surrounding districts that are Republican

18:40 held now a little bit more uh Democratic.

18:43 Uh and we should look at those areas to invest.

18:46 Uh, I think that we shouldn't sort of take

18:49 our eye off the ball in regards to, you know, the gerrymandering efforts.

18:52 And I I really think that there's probably only one place left

18:55 in the country that uh could really do something in regards to the map,

18:58 and that's Maryland.

18:59 I think the Democratic Party should really look

19:01 deep uh inwards and make sure uh that we

19:04 all recognize that this is much bigger than

19:06 one state uh and do everything we can,

19:08 and so if there is a shot in Maryland, we should take it.

19:11 I'm not into namechecking people,

19:13 but uh there is a pathway to maybe do something there.

19:16 Uh but we have to continue to invest.

19:18 I mean, right now Americans are seeing a president that's more interested

19:21 in being a geologist than being the president of the United States.

19:24 Uh and I think that's an advantage for us.

19:26 And so I think our path, as Dan said,

19:29 remains clear as it is, even with the original maps.

19:32 In Virginia, we have seats one, two, and five that are still in play for us.

19:36 And then around the country uh by taking

19:38 advantage of the gains that Democrats have made.

19:40 And so we have to continue that work

19:41 and make sure uh we're on track come this November.

19:45 Let me ask you Quinton.

19:46 I mean you know one of the things

19:47 about say Senator Warox's campaign which you ran so

19:50 you know this better than I do is

19:52 he showed up in places people that surprised people.

19:54 Um and he turned out voters in places that I think surprise strategists.

19:59 Right.

20:00 I'm I'm curious about what you think.

20:02 I mean, people see this, it feels demoralizing, but there is also anger,

20:06 I think, that is going on in voters souls right now.

20:09 As you think about voter turnout and in getting people inspired and engaged,

20:13 what is the right strategy and the best

20:15 strategy if you're running a campaign that's

20:18 impacted by what we're seeing happen in states

20:20 uh that are being gerrymandered right now?

20:25 Yeah.

20:26 Look, I think that uh I've always been a believer that you

20:28 have to go places where people don't think that you can win.

20:31 And especially uh in certain races, particularly statewide races,

20:34 it's easier to do that because even if you lose an area,

20:38 you know, 8020 uh instead of 9010 uh just because you go there,

20:42 it actually plays into the overall scheme.

20:43 But I right now I don't believe that there's a place that Democrats can't go uh

20:47 in the country and talk to voters because no

20:49 matter how they draw these maps in any state, the underlying fact remains clear,

20:53 which is that Americans are dissatisfied with Donald Trump

20:56 and the Republican party uh because of the lack

21:00 of doing anything that they promised that they were

21:02 going to do uh when they sent them there.

21:04 And I also think that, you know,

21:06 we have to make sure that we're continuing to speak

21:09 uh about the things that actually matter and understand

21:12 that we're moving from special elections and primary elections that are

21:15 upcoming this summer to a more general election uh electorate.

21:20 Uh and that is going to change the calculus of people.

21:22 It would be a disservice for the Democratic party to go out and just think

21:27 that gerrymandering and this conversation around democracy

21:29 is going to be the argument that wins.

21:31 If you knock on a hundred doors in this country,

21:33 maybe five or six people might say democracy or gerrymandering.

21:36 The majority of them are going to say, "I'm worried about paying my light bill.

21:39 I'm worried about uh how much money I'm making at my job.

21:42 I'm worried about child care, healthcare." Uh and so,

21:44 as long as we stay focused on the message uh at hand and the advantage

21:48 that the Republicans and Donald Trump are giving us

21:50 for their lack of accomplishments uh under his leadership,

21:53 I think the Democrats are going to be just fine.

21:56 And we should be saying that uh in districts that are R plus 5,

21:59 R plus7 all the way up to the districts that we

22:02 feel safe in because that is the underlying issue at hand.

22:05 And that is why Democrats have

22:06 these advantages going into uh the midterm elections.

22:09 Dan, one of the things this shines a light

22:11 on for me is just the importance of state legislators.

22:14 Um I think we've we know that, we've learned that.

22:17 Um that's something you've talked about.

22:19 You you all inform people on Pod Save America about that all the time.

22:23 talk a little bit about the importance of those races

22:25 for people out there who want to tune in.

22:27 They're trying to get informed themselves.

22:28 Where should they be focused?

22:30 What should they be paying attention to?

22:31 And why does that matter so much moving forward?

22:35 Sure.

22:35 Because of the Supreme Court decision,

22:37 we are now in a world of perpetual redistricting.

22:39 This is not something we do once every 10 years.

22:42 Every single cycle, there is the opportunity to redraw the maps in a way that is

22:47 more favorable and and the risk that the other

22:49 side will take power and do the same.

22:51 And the people who draw the maps are state legislators and governors.

22:55 And we must elect them.

22:57 We must give Democratic governors majorities to draw that.

23:01 We must put pressure on Democratic governors

23:04 and Democratic legislators to fight fire with fire.

23:07 There is a bunch of states, New York, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado,

23:12 and others that in 2028 we can redraw the maps and net as many

23:16 seats as we could potentially lose from the Supreme Court decision last week.

23:20 But what's only going to happen is if we if people elect Democrats

23:23 who commit to doing that and then once the Democrats are in office,

23:27 we put real grassroots pressure on them that anything

23:29 short of doing fighting fire with fire is unacceptable.

23:33 Turning to the censorship and free speech wars under Trump, ABC,

23:37 which under Disney had initially wavered but then stood by Jimmy Kimmel,

23:42 is now going farther, perhaps boyed by public support.

23:45 They're fighting back against the Trump

23:47 FCC and saying they're violating First Amendment

23:49 rights and abusing their position as regulators

23:52 to punish political content they disagree with.

23:54 This is from a brand new filing.

23:56 This builds on, of course,

23:57 what was the past Kimmel skirmish, where the FCC, they say,

24:00 has created this harmful ambiguity in an area where none previously

24:04 existed that there's a chilling effect on First Amendment protected speech.

24:07 That's because the FCC is trying to go

24:10 after the view for its anti-Trump criticism and pushing

24:14 some sort of theory that there are old

24:15 rules where they have to grant equal time.

24:18 Now, talk shows have long been exempt from that.

24:20 And very few people think this is on the level like that it's about equal time.

24:24 Most think that it's another way that while they've often failed,

24:27 the Trump FCC folks have tried to dial up pressure on Kimmel,

24:31 on comics, now on talk shows for using

24:33 their First Amendment rights to criticize Trump.

24:36 And we know that does happen on The View.

24:41 When you look at the lineup of guests that have typically been on The View,

24:45 I think it's an uphill climb for Disney to make

24:48 the case that they're just a straight news program.

24:50 If you're fake news,

24:51 you're not going to qualify for the bonafide news exception.

24:53 And again, the FCC walked away from this from for years.

24:59 That's just the viewpiece.

25:01 There's also Trump's attacks on comedians.

25:03 He's revived that online.

25:05 He wants to sort of decide who's on TV, which has proven unpopular.

25:08 There's that huge backlash when he tried and failed to get Jimmy Kimmel canled.

25:12 He's also, of course,

25:14 celebrated that the Steven Colbear show once it came under the ownership

25:17 of a company much friendlier to Trump's politics canled the show.

25:21 As we've noted, they've said publicly that it was a financial decision,

25:25 not bowing to government pressure.

25:26 But this is the environment we're in.

25:28 I want to bring in former federal prosecutor Joyce Vance.

25:32 Good to have you.

25:34 Um, I noticed the the contrast when Disney

25:38 and ABC initially faced the Trump attack on Kimmel.

25:40 There were days where they had suspended

25:43 him and people thought they might fold completely.

25:46 Now, having won that fight over time, do you see a bit of a different

25:51 legal strategy and how they're defending the view?

25:55 Yeah, absolutely.

25:55 here because one of the lessons of Trump's

25:58 second term in office has been that it does no good to prematurely bend the knee

26:04 when your first amendment rights are on the line.

26:06 And that doesn't matter if it's a university, if it's a law firm,

26:10 or even more recently this criminal

26:12 prosecution against the Southern Poverty Law Center.

26:15 You know, the the through line in all of those events, Ari,

26:19 is this effort to suppress any sort of criticism of this administration.

26:25 So, I think it's interesting to see ABC pushing back here.

26:27 You know, this is this issue just involves one station

26:31 in Houston that was sort of being challenged for the the view,

26:36 which has had this long-term exemption, I think, since the early 2000s, um,

26:41 which recognizes that the equal time doctrine doesn't cover straightup news,

26:46 but it also doesn't cover news interview shows.

26:49 A and so they have brought in Paul Clement,

26:51 a former solicitor general during the Bush administration,

26:55 which signifies how serious they are about joining those that have stood up,

27:00 pushed back in court.

27:01 This is a petition in front of the FCC for now, but they are,

27:05 I think, trying to demand that their First Amendment rights be honored.

27:10 Yeah.

27:10 and and the Kimmel standoff was so fascinating

27:13 uh because unlike Cole Bayer where there was

27:16 some contested reality and he did stay on air

27:19 for many months to fill out the contract.

27:21 So it just didn't feel quite as a core live event with Kimmel.

27:26 You had the country weighing in and you had Disney going people

27:30 are really mad if we just turn and cave like you said.

27:33 And although for a few days I remind everyone he was off the air.

27:36 Um you know this is a guy who's hosted the Oscars

27:38 and everybody pretty much knows him if you follow media at all.

27:42 So he had that real voice.

27:43 I want to play some of what we heard from him.

27:46 Uh this was April 27th here after the recent firing call.

27:50 It was a pretend roast.

27:52 I said our first lady Melania is here.

27:54 Look at her.

27:55 So beautiful.

27:55 Mrs.

27:55 Trump, you have a glow like an expectant widow.

27:58 He's almost 80 and she's younger than I am.

28:00 It was not by any stretch of the definition a call to assassination.

28:05 And they know that Donald Trump is allowed to say whatever

28:08 he wants to say as are you and as am I.

28:11 As are all of us because under the first

28:13 amendment we have as Americans a right to free speech.

28:17 But with that said, [cheering] do you think

28:23 if this does wind it way through the courts,

28:26 uh, that it helps when you have someone who's actually known in theory?

28:29 We all, as he said, have our first amendment rights.

28:32 Uh, but does it help that Jimmy Kimmel is obviously an American who tells jokes,

28:36 so it's very hard to make him out to be something else in court?

28:41 Yeah, I mean I think that's a very important point, Ari,

28:45 because when you're talking about the First Amendment

28:48 and you're talking about these sorts of issues,

28:51 there are fine line distinctions that are

28:53 drawn between different kinds of speech.

28:55 And of course, joking, making fun of our politicians,

28:59 even in a very abrasive fashion, that's a hardcore part of the American

29:04 consensus about speech that the First Amendment protects.

29:07 And so Kimmel's stature, the fact that people understand what his shtick is,

29:12 the fact that he himself came out and explained

29:15 what he was doing and postured it precisely as he did will make this a much

29:20 more attractive case as it goes through the courts.

29:23 Uh, and with with Paul Clement, they're saying what they have a heavy

29:27 hitter who also has some conservative cred.

29:32 I think that that's right.

29:33 And you know the reality here and of course in in Kimmel he is still on the air.

29:38 He has not been fired.

29:39 If he is fired I would expect he would have

29:42 a similar sort of a heavy hitter sort of a situation.

29:45 You know, this is a situation that's very serious where

29:49 the the view is not only under investigation by the FCC,

29:53 but there have been calls for early renewal of licenses as well,

29:57 which is a relatively serious step and a challenge to whether

30:01 or not the view is entitled to maintain its exemption.

30:05 And so, bringing in a former solicitor general always signifies to the courts

30:09 and to the the government that you're very serious about a case.

30:13 I think it's a way of saying to the FCC,

30:16 we all know that what you're doing here is wrong.

30:19 Don't mess with us.

30:20 We intend to come out with guns blazing.

30:23 Yeah.

30:24 Uh Joyce Vance, thank you.

30:26 MS Now Scandalian helped break this story.

30:28 He joins me now.

30:30 Also with us, Rob Demo,

30:31 a former FBI supervisor and MS Now national security and intelligence analyst.

30:35 And Eddie Glowy is a Princeton

30:37 University professor and MS Now political analyst.

30:39 Ken, starting with you, your latest reporting sort of fits into this larger

30:44 picture of Patel's time as FBI director.

30:46 Let's put it into context here.

30:49 Well, Ariel Cash Patel came in as a disruptor, right?

30:53 Saying that the FBI was a corrupt institution and almost immediately he began

30:57 firing civil servants in what the FBI

31:00 agents association views as illegal firings.

31:03 and he's been doing things that have angered and disqued the large

31:08 portions of the workforce almost since the moment he took office.

31:11 And all during that time,

31:13 people inside the FBI have been leaking embarrassing stories about him,

31:16 whether it's his conduct in meetings or his uh uh you know,

31:20 his habits of giving away challenge coins

31:23 with uh the Punisher cartoon character on them.

31:25 All kinds of stories.

31:26 And and just as long as that's been happening,

31:29 Cash Patel has been trying to far it out who these leakers are.

31:32 And then our latest reporting is that he's subjecting

31:34 members of his security detail and others to polygraphs.

31:38 And that's important because you know

31:40 this Atlantic magazine story that he's suing over

31:42 uh one of the most explosive allegations in that was that there have been times

31:47 when Cash Patel was drinking so heavily

31:49 uh the night before that his security detail

31:51 had to wake him up uh or had trouble waking him up in the morning.

31:54 That's that only could have come from them and so

31:56 now he's trying to put them uh under the microscope here.

32:00 Um, and then we're also reporting that he's really in panic mode,

32:03 that he's afraid for his job.

32:05 It's no secret that Donald Trump has contemplated firing him,

32:08 and that he's walled himself off from his senior leadership.

32:12 Now, his spokesman Ben Williamson had a colorful quote.

32:15 He said, "The only people panicking are the panicons,

32:17 that's a word that Donald Trump coined

32:19 in the news media and among Democratic politicians who are

32:22 neglecting to cover the great work that the FBI

32:25 is doing." Cash Patel believes he's doing great work.

32:28 A lot of people in the workforce

32:30 believe that he's essentially disrupted, if not ruined,

32:32 the nation's foremost uh law enforcement agency that's going

32:34 to take years to recover from what Cash Patel has done.

32:37 And now we wait and see whether Cash Patel can keep his job.

32:40 Ariel.

32:41 All right.

32:42 So, Rob, we're living in some abnormal times, it seems.

32:44 Is it common practice for an FBI director to polygraph

32:47 his own staff and security detail over possible leaks?

32:51 Absolutely not.

32:52 If the case was a criminal leak investigation of classified material,

32:57 then you can see something like that.

32:59 But, you know, they put this policy in that you can't re

33:02 reveal information [clears throat] that's counter

33:04 to the administration's viewpoints or, you know,

33:07 on on Patel himself because it's not a crime uh to do this.

33:10 It's a policy the bureau put in place.

33:13 So, the fact that he's wasting these resources

33:15 and and that's what he's done from the beginning,

33:17 uh, you know, new jets and all these other things and BMWs for, you know,

33:22 his travel and such, um, he is like a kid and you see that in his behavior,

33:27 walling himself off and not doing this and pouting.

33:29 Um, I I think the only reason he's still there is I think the administration

33:33 doesn't want to fire uh him because because

33:36 the so many people are objecting to it.

33:39 I think that that no firing policy is still holding him in place.

33:43 Um, but like the the names going around the bureau for him,

33:47 you know, make a wish director because every time he sees something cool,

33:50 he uses his position as a director of the FBI to do

33:53 that to to sit in jets in Myiramar to go to hockey game,

33:57 you know, Olympic hockey games.

33:59 Um, and and then have an excuse for it on business-wise.

34:02 Um, so it it's really getting starting to getting out.

34:05 And he doesn't he's not a part of the FBI culture.

34:08 He doesn't know agents.

34:09 Even though tons of agents wanted change with this administration,

34:13 they did want to see change in FBI, they they gave him a chance and he's

34:18 proving them wrong in that he's not serious.

34:21 He doesn't know what he's doing.

34:22 It's all selfish.

34:23 So, he he's he's now hibernating and and paranoid.

34:26 And the problem is it's affecting national security.

34:29 If the FBI wasn't such a strong organization run by serious people,

34:33 we'd be in problems.

34:35 They're still doing their job.

34:37 but he's taking resources away to do that.

34:39 And there you saw the split screen

34:41 of him with the USA hockey team chugging beers.

34:43 Uh Eddie, so I do want to circle back

34:45 to this question that many people have been asking.

34:47 Should the American people be concerned that this is all

34:50 a distraction from the real job that Cash Patel has,

34:53 which is keeping Americans safe?

34:56 Of course.

34:56 It's great to see you, Ariel.

34:58 Of course, they should be concerned.

34:59 Um what we see here is the the effect,

35:02 the consequence of in some ways the death of expertise and competence.

35:06 Cash Patel is only in this position because

35:08 he demonstrated feelalty I suppose to Donald Trump.

35:11 He did not bring any serious assets or skill sets.

35:14 He wasn't a part of the culture as was just said.

35:16 And I think in this moment the country is at war.

35:19 It's at war with not not within not with just another.

35:22 It's with Iran who has an extensive reach

35:24 that could impact uh our domestic situation here.

35:27 So, uh, I think the American people

35:29 should be not only concerned about terroristic threats,

35:32 but we should be concerned about the deconstruction of the DOJ and the FBI.

35:38 Yeah, Eddie mentions filty to President Trump.

35:40 Rob, even with all that's going on here,

35:42 Patel appears to be trying to give the president what

35:45 he's been asking for, which is to punish someone uh, for his 2020 election loss.

35:50 In recent days, the FBI has sent an agent to talk

35:53 to the top election official in Wisconsin about the 2020 election.

35:57 And just this week, Patel made the case that he's laser focused still

36:01 on the so-called grand conspiracy against Trump that he says is still going on.

36:05 Let's listen.

36:08 They ran it back just now.

36:10 Explain.

36:10 In the last election, in the one that just put Trump back in office,

36:15 they ran the same playbook of getting regurgitated bogus

36:19 information funded by political operatives

36:21 seated into the intelligence community.

36:23 And that's what we figured out and unlocked.

36:26 And that is what I spend most of my time when it

36:30 comes to the dewaponization of government

36:32 focused on collecting those bad actors,

36:35 getting grand juries, getting prosecutors,

36:36 and building teams around the country,

36:39 not just in one location to look at that because these people haven't stopped.

36:43 You heard in his own words there, Rob,

36:45 that he's spending a lot of his time on this.

36:48 What's your reading on that?

36:50 He's gaslighting the the entire country.

36:52 Um he's trying he knows what will keep

36:55 him in the job and and he everyone understands

36:58 like if you can give the administration

37:00 and and President Trump what he wants especially the election.

37:03 So he he comes out with a piece every time

37:06 he gets in trouble he fires somebody or he gets

37:09 on a a podcast like he just did with with Sean

37:12 Hannity to preach what he's doing to support you know Mr.

37:15 Trump's uh initiatives and he knows that that's that's

37:18 favored and and unfortunately uh everyone can read into it.

37:22 He's gaslighting the entire country, though.

37:24 He has taken what he said the bureau was and he's turned

37:27 it into that exact same thing because they never did this before.

37:31 They didn't investigate journalists for for noncriminal leaks.

37:34 Um they didn't investigate uh politicians for things

37:36 that they're not going to be able to prove.

37:39 But if he can start it and then, you know,

37:40 if the courts get in the way or whatever, he can just blame it on uh you know,

37:44 liberal judges or, you know, whatever term they're using for him.

37:47 Now, he just is trying to hang on to his job.

37:50 And unfortunately him hanging on to his job like you said he's

37:54 spending all his time on that and we are at war with Iran

37:57 which has very very much uh the ability to come back

38:00 into this country and then other things all the the the espionage things.

38:04 He fired a bunch of CIA agents who work on uh counter intelligence for Iran.

38:09 He fired him because uh he was upset with what they were doing.

38:13 So again he's making the country more unsafe.

38:16 The bureau is trying as hard as they can uh to keep this country safe,

38:19 but it's tough when you have a director like that.

38:22 Eddie Lawfair published Fulton County grand jury

38:25 transcripts that showed people like Senator Lindsey Graham,

38:28 clearly an ally of Trump,

38:30 repeatedly mentioning to him that he lost the 2020 election,

38:33 that it was not stolen.

38:35 But apparently Trump just won't listen to this.

38:37 At one point, Graham said, quote,

38:39 "If you told the president Martians came and stole the votes,

38:41 he'd be inclined to believe it." And yet here we are years later,

38:46 the FBI is still investigating 2020.

38:48 Is this just a situation where as long as Patel,

38:51 kind of as Rob was alluding to, as long as he drags this out,

38:54 as long as he keeps telling Trump what he wants to hear,

38:56 as long as he gets this to be fired up in courts,

38:58 even if nothing comes of it, he's got a shot at keeping his job.

39:03 Well, on a certain level, Ariel, yes.

39:05 I mean, if we want to pay attention to the useful idiot here,

39:08 that's true that Patel is trying to keep his job.

39:10 But I think what we need to be paying attention to is

39:13 that he's also because he's trying

39:15 to keep his job participating in jeopardizing,

39:18 undermining our democratic process.

39:19 So I can we could focus on Patel.

39:23 We could, but we need to focus on these folks.

39:25 What they're doing in Fulton County, what they did in Arizona,

39:28 what they're trying to do in Wisconsin, what we just saw in Virginia,

39:31 how we're seeing the redistricting going on in the South right now.

39:35 We're seeing an allout assault on our democratic process.

39:38 And we can focus on Cash Patel trying to keep his damn job.

39:42 But I think we need to be focused on these folk trying to steal our democracy

39:46 and I think he's just one of the pawns in that effort to do just that.

39:51 And we are about to discuss redistricting in just a moment.

39:54 Preciient of you, Rob Demo, Eddie Gloud, thank you both so much.

39:58 Appreciate it.

40:00 Let's bring in MS Now senior national security reporter David Rhde

40:03 Rick Stangle former under secretary of state for public diplomacy and public

40:07 affairs and an MS now political analysts and founder of the and president

40:12 of the Marx collaborative retired major general James Spider Marx.

40:15 David, the president had described some of the attacks

40:19 the US launched on Iran last night as love taps.

40:23 What is Sentcom describing them as?

40:25 They are describing them as sort of deadly fire

40:28 that was in response to a deadly attack on American ships.

40:32 It was three American destroyers.

40:33 They were making their way through the straight of Hormuz.

40:36 It was an American show of force.

40:37 Iranian forces attacked them.

40:39 Either the missiles from Iranian forces missed or drones

40:42 missed or the US was able to shoot them down.

40:44 These destroyers are amazing.

40:45 They have incredible radar systems that can

40:47 literally see a bird flying in the distance.

40:49 So, that's a successful military operation.

40:51 and then the US retaliated and hit some some bases on land

40:55 and other locations where the Iranians were firing at the Americans from.

40:59 That's a significant exchange of fire.

41:01 To me, that is a violation of the ceasefire.

41:04 But I think the president is so eager, critics say,

41:07 desperate for a deal here that he keeps playing

41:10 down these potentially deadly clashes between US and Iranian forces.

41:14 David RH, thank you so much for laying out the very latest for us.

41:19 Rick, the president did acknowledge that Iran fired on three US

41:22 warships transiting through the straight and he wrote on social media right

41:26 after we'll knock them out a lot harder and a lot more

41:29 violently in the future if they don't get their deal signed fast.

41:32 What does fast even mean?

41:34 How long is the US willing to wait?

41:39 Well, Anna, it's just another example

41:41 of Trump's usual luster and rhetoric thinking

41:44 that he's going to get a deal because uh he's using such exaggerated talk.

41:50 Um you know, David's point uh that uh that our our retaliation there there's

41:57 kind of been an understanding I hope between the two sides that you know what,

42:02 we're going to retaliate,

42:03 but not to such an extent that it will blow up the talks.

42:06 We've seen that with Iran before, but you know,

42:09 both sides are kind of desperate for a deal.

42:13 Um, and and I and I do think that the negotiations

42:16 in a way what what we have seen is when you're negotiating,

42:19 you can't come to an agreement.

42:21 You either make it bigger, you either make it smaller,

42:23 or you kick the can down the road.

42:25 And basically, that's the third option is what they're doing.

42:28 They're kicking the can down the road.

42:29 They're going to say, "Look,

42:30 we haven't come to an agreement yet about the Iran's nuclear capacity.

42:34 We're going to negotiate on that for the next few months.

42:37 Both sides, it's in the interest of both sides to make a deal

42:40 and that's why they're going to postpone deciding on some aspects of it.

42:44 General, according to the Washington Post,

42:47 a confidential CIA analysis finds Iran can survive the US naval blockade

42:53 for at least three to four months before facing more economic hardship,

42:57 citing four people familiar with the document.

43:00 And this assessment also finds Iran

43:02 retains a substantial missile and drone arsenal.

43:05 Does that surprise you?

43:09 Well, it doesn't at all.

43:11 The fact that Iran um has continued to be incredibly resilient,

43:15 demonstrated this level of resilience over the course

43:18 of the last two months should not be surprising.

43:20 Again, I think the United States established an expectation of what would occur

43:24 as a result of epic fury that really

43:26 extended our abilities to achieve that objective.

43:29 On the military side, we've achieved some significant objectives.

43:31 Um, but I think we've learned the lesson

43:33 at this point that additional firepower against Iran, in other words,

43:37 a resumption of Epic Fury phase two now is not going to move the move

43:43 the negotiations any place closer or get us

43:46 together to some type of a of an offramp.

43:48 Clearly, I think to answer your previous question,

43:51 I think what Trump would love to do is walk

43:53 into the room and see she next week shake his hand and say,

43:56 "Oh, just FYI, I've got a deal with Iran." Whether that deal is enforcable,

44:01 almost irrespective of what it looks like,

44:03 but if Iran and the United States have a deal and we

44:06 can walk down the path and start to address the significant issue,

44:10 which is highly enriched uranium, that has to take place.

44:13 and then the reopening.

44:15 And again, let's be frank,

44:16 the straits are open for vessels that have insurance and and they

44:20 have a captain and an owner who's prepared to take that risk.

44:24 It will happen, but it needs to get back opened again.

44:27 So, it doesn't surprise me that this analysis from the CIA is saying,

44:31 look, we and the CIA who have looked at this thing for decades,

44:35 you know, the the regime in Tran,

44:37 these guys are going to shoot us the bird as long as they can.

44:40 they are going to remain in power until the last man standing.

44:44 The United States cannot do that if we're

44:46 where we are today in a number of months, let's say into August or September,

44:51 and we're on the brink of a global recession.

44:53 We have to be and I think we're very mindful of that.

44:56 So Rick, given this CIA assessment suggesting Iran can withstand a lot

45:00 more pain and they can hold off if the US has a blockade

45:04 for more months in fact and given other reporting that US military assets

45:08 were more sever severely damaged by Iran than the administration has led on.

45:13 What does that mean for the kind of leverage Iran might have in any negotiation?

45:20 Well, they do have leverage, Anna.

45:22 I mean, Iran's calculation from the start was we can withstand more

45:26 military pain and more economic pain than the US can withstand economic pain.

45:32 Um, that they're witnessing that all the time.

45:35 They've been they've been had sanctions against

45:36 them for 20 years and have suffered.

45:38 I would always count on a people who have

45:41 an existential threat against them who have uh had to live,

45:44 you know, with very little to to outlast it.

45:47 Plus, it's an authoritarian regime.

45:49 they're willing to sacrifice the the livelihoods and the well-being

45:53 of their people uh in order to get what they want.

45:56 So, um and again, you know,

45:58 I just also want to bring in uh I mean to your last question,

46:03 I mean, the intelligence community basically

46:05 has been pretty accurate about Iran's capabilities.

46:08 And it doesn't surprise people like the general,

46:12 doesn't surprise uh you know, people in international policy.

46:15 You know who it did surprise?

46:16 It surprised the White House.

46:18 The White House didn't think that Iran was that resilient.

46:21 They didn't understand why Iran attacked the other

46:23 Gulf countries to kind of try to separate them.

46:26 So, it's coming as a surprise to President Trump and his close advisers.

46:30 And that's not a good sign.

46:33 And General, the UAE says it intercepted

46:35 more missiles and more drone attacks today.

46:37 And it comes after Iranian officials blamed

46:39 the UAE for reported strikes in southern Iran.

46:43 What could strain relations between these neighboring

46:45 countries mean for the war going forward?

46:49 Well, the GCC nations um really re have realized at this point

46:54 that their security is based on what the GCC sees as existential.

46:58 Clearly, the United States will remain a part

47:01 of the Gulf Cooperation Council and those relationships.

47:04 But I think what we might be seeing is a bifurcation within the GCC.

47:09 Maybe the UAE and Israel might create one block and they've

47:14 got a pretty tough view toward their relationship with Iran.

47:18 And again, let let's be frank, all of those GCC nations,

47:22 irrespective of some of their now additional motives,

47:25 have always been isolating Thran for the longest time.

47:28 But with the UAE and Israel,

47:29 then you have another block which really includes Qatar

47:33 and Saudi and maybe Pakistan outside of the GCC

47:37 and Turkey NATO partner and that alliance may

47:40 and they have a good relationship with Tyrron historically.

47:44 So that alliance of nations within the GCC

47:47 might be a moderating influence to Iran.

47:49 And I think Iran would really like to be

47:53 a part of the region and not be viewed exclusively antagonistically.

47:58 But that's going to require a heck of a lot

48:01 of behavioral changes on their part because that's been

48:03 their their bulletin board from day one is we want

48:06 to eliminate Israel and we want to eliminate the great Satan.

48:09 And guess what?

48:10 We're we're the Shia state and we're probably not

48:12 going to be very good friends with everybody else.

48:15 I think moving forward with that potential moderating block.

48:18 We could see some changes.

48:19 Again, it's going to take some time and they've got time and we simply don't.

48:23 General Spider Marks, Rick Stangle, thank you both and happy Friday.