Political journalist Astead Herndon on the fight for America’s future

0:00 Who do you see anyone taking over the magga mantle?

0:02 It starts with JD Vance and others.

0:04 And so I think he's going to have first right of refusal.

0:09 And if that flop happens, then floodgates open.

0:12 But I think it's a real a big chance that flop happens.

0:15 So

0:16 So let's talk about where MAGA movement is and whether or not it's splintering.

0:19 I think for people who haven't lived in the turning points world, you know,

0:24 like I I used I follow Charlie Kirk on some

0:26 of his tour and leading up to the 24 election.

0:29 I don't think you can fully appreciate how much

0:33 of a fundamental promise Donald Trump broke with the Iran war.

0:37 Talk about looking past the midterms,

0:39 how you assess the medium and long-term prospects for Democrats.

0:43 It feels like Democratic base has recognized that um the the normal

0:48 shell game of kind of electability

0:50 is not something they're inherently differential to.

0:53 Now, does that mean that there's can be no moderate candidate that wins?

0:55 Absolutely not.

0:56 Like I think that that means you need to be

0:59 someone who has your own version of a vision.

1:02 It is.

1:08 Hi everyone.

1:08 Today my guest is journalist and fellow Vox podcast host ED H.

1:12 turned in.

1:13 We're talking about Donald Trump and what a postTrump America could look like.

1:18 Yes, people, it is coming.

1:19 This is a great conversation.

1:21 So, stick around.

1:23 Aad, thanks for coming on on.

1:25 Thank you for having me.

1:26 I appreciate it.

1:27 I'd love to know what was the thinking behind

1:29 what you wanted to do and where where you're going.

1:31 Your new Vox podcast's called America Actually with a dead Hearnden.

1:36 Um, you said when you started developing it,

1:38 your first thought was I want to be Trump free.

1:40 So, you're trying to figure out what American politics

1:42 will look like without Trump as the driving force.

1:45 Uh, I'd love to know why you decided to do it this way,

1:48 leave the Times, obviously, and and what you've found so far.

1:52 Yeah.

1:52 Yeah.

1:52 I mean, for me, it was really about kind of embracing our new media space.

1:57 I wanted to do and be somewhere where I could embrace all mediums, right?

2:03 Text, video.

2:04 I wanted to do that based on the premise of like my own

2:08 kind of journalistic lens and kind of free myself of time subscriber.

2:13 Uh, and I also just think that like

2:15 in this kind of moment of politics specifically,

2:19 people um trust individuals.

2:21 They trust people who kind of can put themselves out there transparently,

2:25 can put their process out there transparently.

2:28 And so I kind of wanted to just do that in its

2:30 clearest form and felt like box was the best opportunity to do that.

2:35 Um and to the point about Trump freess, you know,

2:38 as we were thinking about what's going to make this, you know,

2:40 what's what's going to define this show and and kind

2:42 of what do we want our lane to be?

2:44 Obviously, my work has been around elections,

2:46 national elections, midterms, and presidential.

2:49 And this one is unique in that um you know it's the first time since

2:53 2016 we've had these two open primaries

2:55 or at least are building to open primaries.

2:59 They made me think you know we are on this journey

3:01 of theoretical Trump replacement but it seems kind of uh implausible right now.

3:08 I think he takes up so much of this it takes so

3:11 much of up of our ecosystem it's can hard to see past him.

3:14 And so I thought that you know it can

3:17 we can use these elections and we can use kind

3:19 of this runway as an opportunity to start telling that story

3:23 because I think that will be the deeply defining stories.

3:26 What parts of this do we take with us?

3:27 What parts are we leaving behind?

3:29 like what parts of this are defining to a change country

3:34 like I don't I'm making a new word here but is

3:36 it possible to leave behind because certain presidents and certain political

3:40 figures have left either a stain or or a lasting impression right

3:45 yeah and I also think that his um the way

3:48 he has exploited political systems a lasting impact the way

3:53 that he has broken down norms or just increased some levels

3:56 of shamelessness of elected officials I think it's a lasting impact.

4:00 But I still think there are some things uh uh

4:03 whether on the on the Democratic side that's defined themselves around

4:07 opposition to him or on a Republican side that's kind

4:10 of just deferred to him personally that we just simply don't know

4:13 cuz when you say Trump Free when I read that I was like

4:15 can we be is it possible like even dead he'll be interesting right?

4:20 Yeah.

4:20 Yeah.

4:20 So I don't really I mean it more beyond him.

4:22 I just mean non-Trump centric more so and I just think that takes the issues

4:27 that we think about all the time and puts a different lens on them.

4:30 Yeah.

4:30 And so instead of asking simply like uh uh

4:34 you know what the impact is from the top down or or what kind of the last person

4:39 in the room was to push him for decision making.

4:41 We're looking for the impact of that.

4:43 We're looking for how that's going to play

4:44 out in terms of other elected officials.

4:46 And mostly we're looking to how people have tried to live,

4:50 how have people have largely been

4:52 dissatisfied with the solutions that he's proposed.

4:55 And so I think that's really come through in the second term universally.

4:59 And so it makes our framing in my opinion a little easier.

5:02 Yeah.

5:02 It's interesting because one of the things I I

5:04 keep thinking about is like how do you move on?

5:06 There was a brief moment where you forgot about

5:08 Trump after he lost when he was in, you know,

5:11 Igny and he went down to Mara Lago and the insurrection

5:14 and everything else until Kevin McCarthy showed up essentially.

5:18 He was on his way

5:19 to the trash heap as

5:21 I think that's a underrated moment people forget about like uh

5:24 in that post2022 midterms uh there was a big space of Republicans.

5:29 I was at that Republican winter convention where they were talking

5:32 about kind of how he was electoral drag on the party.

5:35 They had also assumed like many others did that his looming

5:39 legal problems would be kind of the nail in his political coffin.

5:42 And so sometimes when Republicans act as if they've seen

5:45 this and they've been on the train the whole time.

5:47 I'm like that's not true.

5:48 Like I I remember those moments when they were

5:51 trying to create space for other people to come in.

5:54 It's simply that the base rejected it when and and we saw this, you know,

5:58 when I was making the runup my times

5:59 podcast when those when those criminal indictments came,

6:03 it for a lot of that that Republican electorate,

6:06 it felt like a need to rally around the guy and that completely

6:10 changed the tenor of what was going to be a more open race.

6:14 You know, it's not just a personality block or things like that.

6:18 it is that there was a moment in time

6:20 in which that kind of window for Republicans to see

6:24 the ability to move past them collapse and so

6:26 their self-interest started aligning with where their base increasingly

6:30 was post those indictments and so I just think

6:32 that some of those seeds uh we've seen in individual

6:36 moments but this election and the our our our march

6:39 to 2028 will bring them more clearly out

6:42 right well interestingly it still has this as you say lasting impact according

6:47 to a new Ipsos poll which I am in apparently and I'm quite purple.

6:50 I have I have purple fans.

6:52 Hey, that's great.

6:53 I know.

6:53 I was sort of surprised.

6:54 I'm like, "Hey, San Francisco lesbian here." But sure, why not?

6:58 Um, online platforms and personalities, especially those on the right,

7:01 have overtaken television and print outlets as regular news

7:04 sources among people who voted in previous presidential election.

7:07 That's very obvious.

7:08 Talk about um that because you know Trump

7:11 2.8 does had a lot of influencers, broers.

7:15 I think they're sort of on the Wayne a little bit too,

7:17 but uh as they But are they the new political journalists?

7:21 How do you look at like as you made your decisions because

7:24 you you literally went out and talked to people which is called reporting.

7:28 I know kids it's this really cool thing.

7:29 You actually find out what people think and then you come to a conclusion

7:33 based on that and you can have your own insights and everything else.

7:36 But talk a little bit about that.

7:38 I mean, it definitely is a change in in in in news ecosystem,

7:41 and we've seen it as we've been on campaign trail.

7:43 When we ask people where they get

7:45 their news or where they're getting information from first,

7:47 you hear people increasingly who don't want that information at all.

7:51 Like, I think that's the number one change I I I feel like I picked up.

7:55 People kind of openly saying, "Well, I keep clear of that.

7:58 I don't try to I don't try to hear that.

8:01 I try to insulate myself from that 100%." And then

8:04 the second thing I think is leaning on individual voices who

8:07 people trust who are increasingly and I think in that um

8:11 Biden years especially were more right-wing were more of those brocasters.

8:15 I think we're sign starting to see that change

8:16 a little bit as that uh uh uh ecosystem changes.

8:20 But it it was true that I think it did displace your kind of shared

8:24 political reality of the times A1 or the kind

8:28 of shared political reality of cable news

8:30 even if they're arguing about things electorate doesn't

8:33 care about it mostly did keep a kind of guard rail of discourse on establishment

8:38 that I don't think is necessarily there anymore.

8:41 And so I think another thing that's hugely

8:43 changed too is not just the news sources

8:45 but the fundraising mechanisms too from you know

8:48 from small donors uh uh you really have

8:51 a a a specific activist class or people who are like most interested and you can

8:56 raise a lot of money by just speaking

8:58 in that uh just speaking to those people too.

9:00 And so there's a lot of incentive for the influencer age of politics right now.

9:05 It's almost impossible to imagine a Trump

9:07 presidency without the rise of social media.

9:09 change what Americans expect from their politicians.

9:11 We even see Democrats copying aspects of the cell Gavin Newsome for example.

9:15 Can a normie candidate win the presidency again?

9:18 Will successful candidates have to be that way?

9:22 Troll and meme their way to virality because I

9:24 wrote a column a couple of years ago, 2018,

9:26 when I was writing for the Times and I said

9:28 he's the world's greatest internet troll and this is important,

9:31 you know, this is an important aspect.

9:33 Um, which everyone was like, no,

9:35 it's the it's the political, you know, press class.

9:38 I was like, he's he's bypassing.

9:40 And so is by the way, AOC.

9:42 I compared, you know,

9:43 these genuine whether you like them or not is a different thing,

9:46 but they're certainly genuine voices.

9:48 Mom Donnie certainly uh you're watching it in real time.

9:51 He's really quite good at it.

9:52 The way

9:53 people who can go directly to their audience and people who have kind of cut out

9:57 that gatekeeper to create a sense of trust

9:59 and they're they deliver their own news to their audience.

10:02 The biggest thing that McDumi has is that kind of credibility as kind of direct

10:07 to camera uh uh direct to Instagram

10:10 audience organizing ability that he's cultivated over time.

10:13 So I definitely think you're right that um uh

10:15 the new type of politician I think led by Trump uh

10:19 has played assignment editor for media bypassing us but also

10:23 I think can um talk to their voter more directly.

10:26 to the point about norm normie candidate.

10:28 Uh I still do think that you can be a sort quote

10:31 unquote normal candidate and maybe not an open troll and still win.

10:35 But I do think you have to command attention

10:37 or have the ability to command attention in this economy.

10:41 And so in this in this decentralized landscape,

10:44 I don't think uh uh you can simply rely

10:48 on the press release or the X statement or or or whatever.

10:53 I think you have to have the ability to do the 30 second video,

10:56 to do the threehour sit down and to be able have a message that cuts

11:00 through on both fronts because sometimes I think

11:03 that we only think about um uh you

11:05 know the the delivery of message but what the biggest thing I think that helps

11:09 Zoron or AOC is a consistency of message too that they can kind of bring Yeah.

11:15 that they can bring to every platform and they're very comfortable in that.

11:19 You know, I make the example of there was so much

11:21 back and forth obviously about Harris going on Joe Rogan 24.

11:26 She did do big podcast and such, but I was like the content of what she

11:31 brought to that platform was pretty much a stump speech.

11:35 That's right.

11:35 And so if you're going to go to new mediums and behave in an old way,

11:39 I don't think it does the same type of work.

11:42 You need to bring

11:43 that new message to that new medium and that's where the magic happens.

11:46 Yeah.

11:46 We had talked about it and I was like,

11:48 "You don't understand." And I didn't mean it this way.

11:50 I was like, "Everything is promiscuous now." Like I I

11:53 and I don't mean to be in a sexual way.

11:55 It's like you have to be on all the time.

11:57 You have to be very genuine and you and people can sense that very quickly.

12:02 Even if they don't like you,

12:04 they like you like because you're there and communicating the person you are.

12:08 I wanted her to do a show called uh recently unemployed with Kamla Harris.

12:12 Um which I thought would have been very funny.

12:15 And she goes around and talks to unemployed people like

12:17 honestly that's like that's a great idea.

12:20 Guys who wear the sneakers, t-shirt, jeans,

12:22 like that's the look everybody likes about you.

12:24 And so and that's what you're actually like that.

12:28 Yeah.

12:28 And I think that to your point that gets

12:30 you closer that gets you closer to the person, you know, we've seen her be.

12:34 I think particularly as folks who have got to see her privately or covered her

12:37 rather than I think um prosecutor mode which the[ __] thing I call the[ __]

12:42 Yeah.

12:42 Sometimes I think when the lights come on was the switch that flipped

12:46 and so I kind of empathize sometimes

12:48 with politicians about like the risk of authenticity,

12:52 the risk of being genuine in that many settings.

12:54 I think particularly like in a gendered way

12:56 like we have not supported women candidates coming

12:59 to the coming to media and electorate as full

13:03 self like so I get the trepidation there.

13:05 I just also get that it's required in this landscape

13:09 and I don't think you can get around that.

13:12 That's the risk of that sort of genuiness or authenticity.

13:15 The the clip the you know the clip farming

13:18 can make one moment into a larger definitional space.

13:22 And I think that's if you're playing from a place of risk,

13:25 particularly as a politician, that's been why they've been so distant from it.

13:28 Right?

13:28 It's the question is, does it really hurt?

13:30 Because look, Trump just keeps barreling[ __] through, right?

13:33 But he's obviously radically uh radically reshaped

13:36 American politics and he's not just the communications.

13:39 He tried to overturn the election in 2020.

13:41 He's been an authoritarian bender since he

13:43 was reelected with some with mixed success,

13:46 I think you'd have to say, but mostly Republicans have gone along with it.

13:49 So, we touched on this earlier.

13:51 How do you look at what happens after he leaves office?

13:54 How do we fix the ir irreconcilable differences between Maga's authoritarian

13:58 tendencies and those who believe in democracy and the rule of law?

14:01 I do believe without the person there,

14:03 there is some there's not JD Vance is isn't

14:06 likable nor is he does he have the same power,

14:09 charisma, whatever, however you want to use it.

14:12 So what happens in this post Trump

14:15 from your as you're starting to do this podcast?

14:18 You know, one of the things I remember um uh from my time in Trump

14:22 land is how many of their voters would clarify how we're not a democracy.

14:26 We're representative, you know, we're a representative democracy.

14:28 We don't have we don't have a direct democracy.

14:30 And they would use that as kind of an insulation from their fear that a more

14:35 direct democracy as the country was changing was

14:38 going to displace them in terms of power.

14:40 And I think it's been a really motivating factor for Republicans even as Donald

14:45 Trump has made this authoritarian bin is that a lot of them have come

14:49 to hear that democracy term as a u uh and Fox News is telling

14:56 as a way for secretly voting illegals

14:59 and George Sorosbacked groups to steal elections.

15:04 And so it allowed fertile ground for Trump's authoritarian push.

15:09 It was fertile ground for an electorate that was primed to say, "Hey,

15:14 this system as is actually moving away from us." And so that's the question

15:19 I kind of start with when we think about after him is like,

15:23 can there be a renewal of uh of democracy or are

15:28 we kind of changing our floor into this kind of inevitable slide?

15:32 A and I think one of the things that you know like you

15:35 know obviously animates that question is I think it was a real mistake

15:38 for Democrats in 2024 to pitch democracy as a as as a thing

15:45 that just Donald Trump broke and not a thing that needed fixing overall

15:50 renewal.

15:50 Yeah.

15:51 And that

15:52 there was an opportunity to say hey you know let's make this better and that's

15:57 the way that we recommmit to this because I think what I hear from Dr.

16:01 independent is an understanding of a broken Congress, right?

16:05 A desire for things like term limits,

16:08 particularly with the stuff like the Supreme Court.

16:10 Like there is a understanding among people who

16:13 are distant from politics right now that things

16:16 aren't necessarily working or that system seems seems

16:19 at least outdated from responding to people's concerns.

16:23 And so I think that that is an opportunity for anybody,

16:26 particularly as we move toward this next election,

16:29 to say that's part of my vision of a postTrump America is

16:33 to renew a commitment to some baseline principles that he's blown up.

16:37 I just think that for Washington,

16:39 they have a little bit of their self-interest is at odds here, too.

16:42 And so that's where these outsider candidates are kind of interesting to me.

16:46 like because that's ground that they can take

16:48 up more clearly and they can say things like,

16:51 you know, removing money from this stuff or super PACs or or term limits.

16:56 And I think Washington gets uncomfortable with that.

16:58 Yeah.

16:58 But I don't think they're necessarily doing the old fighting Washington thing.

17:01 It's a very different thing.

17:03 It's, you know, usually it was like I'm

17:04 here because I'm not a creature of Washington.

17:06 I think they've moved past that some

17:08 of these candidates and they're all different stripes politically,

17:11 which is interesting.

17:12 And I think the ones that go,

17:13 "I'm here to fight Washington." I'm like, "Well, that's not really what I want.

17:16 I want some new fresh ideas, right?" And so they sort of dismiss it,

17:21 you know, like, "Well, yes, of course.

17:23 We we know how we feel about that." Like, they're past it in some way.

17:27 Yeah.

17:27 I think solutions are the key point.

17:28 Correct.

17:29 I think there is a diagnosis of problems that's kind of agreed

17:32 right now partially because I think Trump era has laid them bare.

17:36 And so I don't think you're going to win on just saying, "Hey,

17:39 this is an issue." Like I think that that was

17:42 a a a something that even I think back

17:44 to the 2020 Democratic primary like it was a policy paper

17:49 contest and I think that'll be a little different now too

17:52 but I do think the burden will be on um a party that

17:58 uh even democratic base wants ideas once wants wants a feeling of fight.

18:04 Yeah.

18:04 But I think that mostly is it is

18:07 um expressed and your level of political creativity.

18:10 You know, how how are you showing me that you're going to do

18:13 this really well that you're going

18:16 to go beyond the rhetoric we've already heard?

18:18 Yeah, he just did this really well when they were asking about president.

18:20 He's like, I'm really not concerned about that.

18:22 I'm concerned with the potholes and I'm concerned with this and of course I'm

18:25 thinking about that which I think is sort of like a dismissive like this thing

18:30 which is interesting because the other day I think I said on pivot I'm

18:33 like you know we can go on and on about the history of Donald Trump

18:36 there'll be a million like thumb sucking

18:38 essays about wither Donald Trump what does

18:41 he mean what now post whatever you I'm just waiting for all those uh which

18:45 I will none of which I will read and um and but what what's interesting

18:50 is I said it's actually an opportunity to say he's broken a lot of things.

18:53 Well,

18:54 okay, what are we going to build now?

18:56 We don't have to build it back, right?

18:58 Like what what didn't work?

19:00 What what did And everyone's like, "Oh, how could you say that?" I'm like,

19:03 "Cuz a lot of things were broken." Like I think everyone has a sense of that.

19:07 I mean, he's broken them, but what do we want now?

19:09 It gives you an opportunity to for renewal,

19:12 which is I think what you're aiming at with this podcast.

19:14 Yeah, I 100% think that's where a lot of folks are.

19:16 And so, our our goal is to see the the seeds of that.

19:19 like what are the groups who are going to define our postTrump future.

19:22 We're thinking about the growing parts of the electorate,

19:24 first generation Americans, uh people of faith, uh uh people

19:28 who have necessarily been marginalized or people,

19:31 young people, people under 30, um I think are a big one for us

19:34 in terms of who's going to drive some of that future.

19:37 People's anxiety about changing work economy.

19:39 And I think the place that tech plays in that is a huge thing for us.

19:43 Like we want to track some of that.

19:46 You know, I'm in so many places

19:47 that are talking about the inevitability of, you know,

19:50 job displacement and things and then you're in an electorate that feels kind

19:54 of resentful that everyone's talking about this from a from a certain place,

19:58 you know, and I'm like, what's the impact of that gap?

20:01 How does that gap manifest itself in our elections and things like that?

20:04 And so, taking the issues and then taking the buckets of people, I think,

20:08 help us find some of the seeds along the way

20:11 because by the time we get to an open 27 primary,

20:13 I think that's when they're going to be expressed.

20:15 But the candidates will be vessels for those things.

20:18 So let's talk about where MAGA movement is and whether or not it's splintering.

20:21 I I think it is.

20:22 It seems like it.

20:23 It doesn't seem like just a TV show, reality show.

20:25 Certainly could be that.

20:26 And Trump's shows have done that.

20:28 Um but he's attacked Tucker Carlson, Megan Kelly, Alex Jones, Candace Owen,

20:32 all of them been critical of Trump over the war in Iran specifically.

20:36 Um comedians Joe Rogan, Andrew Schultz,

20:38 and Theo Vaughn have been publicly reconsidering their support,

20:40 although Joe Rogan all it takes is to give him a psychedelic and then he's back.

20:44 Uh, what a thirsty[ __] that guy is.

20:47 Anyway, um, are is that really happening?

20:51 Talk a little bit about that.

20:53 And and explain for people.

20:55 I mean, obviously there several of them are doing it for show.

20:58 They make content out of everything.

21:00 There's not one feeling that doesn't go unexpressed by any of them essentially.

21:05 Yeah.

21:05 I mean, I think for people who haven't

21:07 lived in the Turning Points world, you know,

21:11 like I I used I follow Charlie Kirk on some

21:13 of his tour and leading up to the 24 election,

21:16 uh, you know, I used to go to Turning Point events a bunch and Trump won.

21:20 If you haven't lived in those kind of podcast world,

21:22 I don't think you can fully appreciate how much

21:25 of a fundamental promise Donald Trump broke with the Iran war.

21:30 like they motivated that group for a long time that they have talked

21:34 about as the defining factor of why Donald Trump was not traditional Republican.

21:39 And so even as he flagrantly broke every other promise,

21:42 even as he tariffed his way to inflation,

21:45 even as he did things that were clearly

21:47 violation of campaign promises that that they just accepted,

21:50 they kind of held on to this piece as a reason of why he was still distinct.

21:54 So when now that has blown up,

21:55 I think that's why you're seeing some of this spill out.

21:58 And it is, I think, uh, an early indicator.

22:01 We're starting to see some of this in numbers.

22:03 Uh, in the recent NBC poll that was released this week,

22:05 I was looking at Trump's strongest level of approval

22:08 rating among Republicans is at its lowest level yet.

22:11 Yes, that's still like 79 80%.

22:13 But he's usually in the '9s, right?

22:15 He's usually in a kind of universal agreement among Republicans.

22:19 The other thing I would say here is this is where it matters that Donald

22:22 Trump's coalition was built off of more

22:25 than just traditional Republicans because the people

22:27 who are the most likely to break from him from the Iran war uh

22:32 um debacle are people who came to him for that kind of non-traditional reason.

22:37 And when you look at like the Tuckers and all that world,

22:40 their audience is mostly younger folks and people

22:43 who would not define themselves as traditional Republican party, right?

22:46 He's tormented.

22:47 And so yeah, at least it so in those I

22:52 think there has been a legitimate backlash against and so

22:56 combined with Epstein presumably

22:57 combined with Epstein which I think was a big factor in that too

23:00 and so I think that you get you start to see some of those flavors.

23:03 I was talking to you know we have this Trump MAGA radio

23:06 host on his name is John Frederick's and he was even he

23:09 was admitting that you know if I could change he was like

23:11 if I could change two things it would be tariffs and epste.

23:14 I'm like those are big things sometimes um because the for the us of who have

23:19 known Donald Trump to be a liar or be a manipulator or whatever the whole time.

23:25 I think there can sometimes be um a oh here they go again just on um you know

23:31 just just making content or they just say

23:33 this and they make kids and make up and certainly

23:35 that might happen but I think this is

23:37 a little different because of just how fundamental um no

23:41 forever wars and specifically no regime change war

23:44 with Iran was to Donald Trump's relationship to this world

23:48 right there's also anti-semitism and a couple of other Israel anti-Israel

23:52 and there's certainly much to criticize Israel especially Netanyahu about it,

23:56 but they're they're like died in the wool.

23:58 Like they absolutely I mean what Tucker Carlson's doing

24:01 is beyond just some like you know principal.

24:03 I don't like the other day Marjorie Taylor Green who's

24:07 so reasonable these days for some reason like on certain issues.

24:10 I'm like, "Ask her about trans." You know, she'll go right back to shape.

24:13 Right.

24:13 Right.

24:14 Like that's I was like, "I'm sorry." She's But one of the things she did,

24:18 she was talking about the war.

24:19 And I do believe she's quite sincere, right?

24:22 It's sinc It's a sincere belief.

24:23 The two things that are sincere to me are Epsteina and America first, no wars.

24:27 That is Yeah.

24:28 I mean, for that crowd,

24:29 it is

24:30 they believe those things from him

24:33 100%.

24:33 And I think Epste is for for folks even more

24:35 shocking because we knew the facts about his relationship with them.

24:38 We knew that Donald Trump is not but he had presented himself

24:42 as you know the poor man's rich man.

24:45 Yeah.

24:45 And so that was core to his relationship with that base.

24:49 And I think in that even that like Qanani conspiratorial

24:52 universe that has gotten wrapped into a lot of this.

24:55 They thought he was going to come back

24:57 and open the floodgates for for for the Clinton crimes.

25:01 And I think the reality of that has swallowed

25:04 up a lot closer to home than they thought.

25:05 Oh yeah.

25:05 When Epstein first happened,

25:06 I was in those groups and I and I think Scott was like,

25:09 "Oh, it's going to blow." I'm like, "This is not going to blow over.

25:11 You don't know.

25:11 You don't understand.

25:12 They're This is core." Now, a group of people that were maybe not core,

25:16 but certainly convinced that Trump could help them were

25:19 Latino v voters who helped propel him to victory.

25:22 Uh but a recent poll by a third way in uh Unidos

25:25 US found that Trump's unfavorability number is now 66% with Latino voters.

25:30 Talk about this coalition.

25:32 Yeah, we've seen it in the special elections.

25:34 We've seen it in places like New Jersey.

25:36 It's been big shifts in kind of Latino voting communities.

25:39 Uh uh we just did uh an episode talking about

25:43 um uh immigration changes and even people uh you know,

25:47 we were talking reporters from Arizona who were talking

25:49 about the 180 they've seen specific to Donald Trump's actions.

25:52 I mean, I think when we talk about Latinos, you know,

25:55 you have to talk about from a first place

25:57 a diverse group who doesn't always see themselves in a community.

26:02 They always seem like I'm like,

26:04 you think I have anything in common with Richard Grenell?

26:07 I don't think so.

26:08 At firstand, you know, if you've ever been in some of these places

26:11 and you're looking at them as if they uh are are

26:14 have any feeling of connectivity with someone crossing the border

26:17 in El Paso or the Cubans are different than the Venezuelans,

26:20 you know, like some of that's not always true and we should acknowledge that.

26:23 That's hard for us to understand.

26:25 But I think that I think Trump who says like reeffried beans from whatever

26:30 is Donald, you know,

26:31 Trump did have a diagnosis of a couple

26:33 problems particularly border security that I

26:36 think sometimes people um uh conflated

26:39 with his mass deportations push which is unpopular, right?

26:43 Like but like the less people coming across

26:45 southern border is largely popular and uh true

26:49 among even some Democrats uh who felt

26:51 that that was something that was ignored under Biden.

26:54 I think you also have to acknowledge like you know particular to um

26:58 you know when we talk to kind of folks who are in Latino communities

27:02 the faith-based community that um you know the some of the pushes that was

27:07 some of the pushes that were seen

27:08 about like democratic liberalism I'm thinking about

27:11 abortion rights I'm think about LGBT rights

27:13 had a backlash in certain areas particularly

27:15 a lot of faith-based areas that we saw on uh alongside border but I

27:20 think the most important thing that's happened in the last two years It's

27:24 simply he just taking all of the accurate

27:26 diagnosis and not focusing on solutions.

27:29 Right.

27:30 And so it is not hard to follow who's to blame for rising prices right now.

27:36 Right.

27:36 Exactly.

27:36 Because he made it quite clear by uh by an obnoxious tariff

27:40 announcement nobody wanted and by a war to raise energy prices nobody wanted.

27:45 And so I'm like everyone gets that.

27:49 And I think that is the number that's the number one driver.

27:52 So the brutality of the of the the brutality of the immigration push too.

27:56 I think it's a is a I had a lot of people who are conservative who

27:59 like well I believe in strong borders but not this way.

28:02 Like it was a lot of but not this.

28:04 And so I believe China is[ __] us but not this.

28:07 I would ask people you know they had mass deportations now signs at the RNC.

28:11 Like some of this he did not was not a surprise right.

28:14 No, but

28:14 but I think people's assumption of who right always falls to um

28:20 you know the bad guy you know they will they will they will

28:23 follow through on their promise of targeting

28:26 violent criminals or people who have

28:28 been convicted of a Lisa crime and that's not what we saw right

28:32 not my babysitter not exactly exactly Renee good like you know like not

28:38 a mom dropping her kid off

28:39 exactly all the things we saw was a was a was a disconnect and I just think

28:42 in general like they embraced a showy uh you

28:48 know you know Steven Miller wanted 3,000 arrests per day.

28:52 He did not say he that was not about who was being targeted.

28:57 That was not about clean it up.

28:58 Yeah.

28:59 That was about a projection of a type

29:01 of person they don't they want to make feel uncomfortable.

29:05 So, I think those numbers are a reaction to a message

29:09 they intentionally tried to send about who is welcome here and not.

29:13 And I don't think that was the that was

29:15 the issue that they were sent there to do.

29:17 Even if you know, I would say discriminatory language

29:20 or or or that type of rhetoric has been there the whole time.

29:22 Yeah.

29:22 Cuz then he's talking about you, just so you know.

29:24 Now, another group that has been very tight with him are Christians obviously,

29:28 but bickering with the pope and posting a Jesus-like image of himself.

29:32 Marjorie Taylor Green called it more than blasphemy.

29:35 It's antichrist spirit.

29:37 Everyone's trying to do this doctor thing,

29:39 but I think pretty hard to like it's hard

29:41 to imagine evangelical voters pulling the lever for Democrats,

29:44 not withstanding the appeal of James Telerico, who I like to call baby Jesus.

29:49 But, um, talk about this evangelical support.

29:53 Has it splintered?

29:54 Is there is there an opening for someone like Telerico who's quite progressive?

29:58 I would say if you listen to him.

30:00 I personally I think that um I think they'll stick with him or Yeah.

30:04 I think that I've I I have come to the kind of Pavlovian

30:08 response with evangelicals that that they

30:11 stick with him and partially that's because

30:14 of my in my own reporting they have the bar that they've set

30:18 for the to break with Trump is so

30:21 high because there it's not about his personal actions.

30:24 No, it's barely about his policies.

30:26 Right.

30:26 Right.

30:27 You know, you know, when I talked to Al Mohler,

30:30 conservative theological seminary a couple years ago for the show,

30:33 he was saying that he was willing to back

30:35 um people who had stormed the capital in that midterm,

30:38 even though he found that to be an anti-democratic move because he was

30:42 so scared of the rise of gay and trans people on the other side.

30:46 And so I'm like, if it's always that motivating factor, I think that folks,

30:50 a lot of those folks always return back to conservative or Republican politics.

30:54 Um, I find the Catholic stuff really interesting though.

30:57 Like I think that more than um evangelicals are my question there.

31:02 Like I find um I find Trump's fight with the pope to be

31:06 like indicative of like his lack of his you know I think he

31:12 chose better targets or at least that he was a he was

31:15 a big enough figure that the ch targets he chose feel kind of small.

31:19 I think this pope is a losing battle.

31:21 I think that's why you feel see uh Van stepping away from it.

31:24 And honestly, I think you know even the growth among cath

31:27 Catholicism among among um American young people and things like that.

31:31 Welcome to my world my son.

31:33 I'm like those type of things to me have

31:35 an interesting question of like it does evangelicalism does

31:39 that wave of Christian nationalism reser like retain its

31:42 kind of primacy and Republican politics as we move forward?

31:46 I think that's the question I have.

31:47 My son was we were talking about Protestants and how the German princes

31:51 wanted to Martin Luther to do it because they wanted power over the pope.

31:53 there was a lot more political stuff happening at the time

31:57 and one of the and so each Protestant denomination have

32:00 to have different you can find a very conservative Protestant group

32:03 of evangelicals and you can find a very li a very liberal

32:06 one and one of the points he was making he said

32:09 the reason I like going to church is that there's all

32:12 different people of on all the you have opus day

32:15 and you have the Jesuits and you have this all under one doctrine consistency

32:20 and it is one doctrine it really even if there's there's It is.

32:24 And so, you know, that's what he is attractive to him about it like,

32:28 and which was I hadn't thought about.

32:30 I was like, "Oh, you're right.

32:31 It's it's a there's not 10 different flavors of it.

32:35 There's there's different people in it,

32:37 but they live within the pope organization essentially."

32:41 I have heard people make this argument about the power

32:43 of it be that kind of consistency and monoculture.

32:46 You know, I come from a, you know,

32:47 the most Protestant background ever and my father's a Pentecostal pastor.

32:51 And so like all of us sometimes like Catholicism,

32:54 I feel like I went to a Catholic college.

32:56 I went to Marquette and so I was sometimes like learning the like

32:59 kind of rituals and other things like later than other other people.

33:02 And I remember someone making this point to me and I finding it quite powerful.

33:05 They're like you could be in any part of the world and be any type of person.

33:09 There's all these different disciplines and they are all

33:11 based in the kind of same construction and you

33:14 know that that kind of wavering of personality

33:17 or theology that you could sometimes find among product

33:20 disagreements right about women

33:21 that that that you know in a world of difference that kind

33:25 of sameness and pointing to something actually what felt more powerful.

33:28 So I can see why he made that argument.

33:30 Well it was interesting he's like I like that and I like disagreeing

33:34 but it's also one doctrine and the pope is at the top of it.

33:38 I'm like don't the pope you don't know you don't

33:40 break the pope you don't you don't like it's really

33:43 even among people who don't mess with don't mess

33:47 with the south side of Chicago like pick different fights Trump

33:50 this guy is very speaking of communication skills this guy's got him

33:53 in space so last thing about the Republicans and we'll talk about

33:56 the Democrats speaking of the next GOP uh nominee who do you

34:00 see anyone taking over the MAGA mantle as you're starting this exploration

34:04 yeah I mean obviously we it starts with JD Katy Vance and others,

34:08 but I definitely think that he is showing the difficulty

34:11 of how to maintain the Trump coalition without Donald Trump, right?

34:15 And so whether that is from a personality lens

34:17 or I think from a from a principles lens,

34:19 like I I I I think JD Vance has tried to give MAGASM

34:24 a set of principles and to pretend as if it's a kind of consistent thing.

34:28 But then he finds himself on the wrong side of stuff like Iran Moore, stuff like

34:33 I said he has the charm of a cyber truck, but go ahead.

34:36 Yeah, I mean he's he's changed who he

34:37 is so many times for the purposes of ambition.

34:40 I feel like we have to also say who

34:41 will the version of JD Vance in 2028 even be?

34:44 We don't even know that.

34:45 He'll call himself they them if he needs to.

34:47 I'm like the man has been 10 versions of himself for that.

34:51 Is there someone emerging?

34:53 Because one of the things I was thinking of is

34:54 benches and I felt like the Democrats have a better bet.

34:56 like there's a lot of people coming up younger

34:59 like I don't I don't know who they are

35:00 in the Republican party cuz it's so on Trump's

35:03 on top and then you have all these other

35:05 He also has has in the particularly in the midterms he's been president in

35:10 pretty much chosen the worst candidates possible for the purposes

35:14 of building a bench but I think Trump's lasting impact honestly is

35:18 their primeness for an outsider right so I don't think when

35:23 even Republicans think about bench they're looking back to, you know,

35:27 uh, House members or someone on the rise in Congress.

35:30 I think that like, you know, um, uh, uh,

35:33 even someone like, you know, I would put the RFK Juniors.

35:37 I would put Marco Rubio, of course, but like I think even but I do think someone

35:42 can make a argument for kind of principled version of MAGAM.

35:46 I don't know if that's a Marjorie Taylor.

35:48 Is there any figure you see that you're intrigued by?

35:51 I guess not.

35:52 The first thing I the first thing I

35:54 felt about Republicans like six eight months ago was

35:57 that Vance was putting himself in a pickle

35:59 and I think that's everyone can see that now.

36:02 I don't know but he has a lot

36:04 of interpersonal clout in that world like and so more

36:09 than even his more than a question of like

36:13 will the public want someone to run against him.

36:16 I wonder if someone with credibility in Republican circles runs against

36:19 him simply because they seem to like have liked the guy privately,

36:24 you know, more than even publicly, right?

36:27 And so I guess I don't have any other

36:29 options yet or any folks who are catching my yet

36:31 because I think Republicans have been very differential to him

36:34 um in terms of laying that path for him.

36:37 And so I think he's going to have first right of refusal.

36:42 And when that and if that flop happens, then the floodgates open.

36:46 But I think it's a real a big chance that flop happens.

36:49 Yeah, I think he Well, maybe if he has a baby, shows the baby off.

36:52 I don't know.

36:53 But I think he makes Mike Pence look exciting.

36:55 Um, every episode we get a question from an outside expert.

36:58 We actually have two for you to answer.

37:00 Here's the first from Lulu Garcia Navaro,

37:02 host of the New York Times podcast, The Interview.

37:06 Hi Estad.

37:07 Hi Carara.

37:09 Uh, I'm here in Maine.

37:11 um which brought to mind a question.

37:14 It seems like the upcoming midterm elections are going

37:18 to tell us something about where the respective parties are

37:21 at and it seems like a lot of the fights

37:25 are about what a postTrump world is going to look like.

37:29 So, I'd love to get your view on where

37:33 you think those fault lines are and if there's going

37:36 to be a place in the Republican party for people

37:39 like Susan Collins who will be running uh again in Maine

37:43 as senator and where you think someone like a Graham

37:47 Platner um who is seeking the nomination for the Democrats

37:51 to run against Susan Collins where he fits in in all

37:55 that um and you know where the bases are at respectively.

38:00 Uh it seems like there's just like a lot of insurgent energy.

38:03 See you soon.

38:04 I one I think she's totally right.

38:05 Like there is insurgent energy and Graham Platin is writing that.

38:08 A lot of those scandals that you know came out um a lot of folks thought would

38:12 be kind of fatal for him and every poll

38:14 has a bigger and bigger margin from Janet Mills.

38:17 I think that because he explained it.

38:20 He explained it.

38:20 He was clear about it.

38:21 But I think also there is a growing

38:23 acceptance that real people or real candidates have

38:27 passed that they uh they have lived on the internet like the rest of us and they

38:31 have said and done stuff on the internet

38:33 that they may have regretted and if I think

38:35 you know folks feel that kind of authentic

38:38 uh explanation from you they're willing to hear it.

38:40 I think the Susan Collins example is

38:42 an important one because Republicans have kind

38:43 of given her a little bit of space to just run her own race, right?

38:47 Like she's had her tiffs with Donald Trump.

38:50 he's, you know, necessarily talked about it,

38:51 but they'll find a way to obviously financially and kind of rally around.

38:55 What I think is just shows though is that the excitement,

38:58 the energy, the new ideas are coming from the Democratic side right now.

39:02 You're not seeing kind of Republican midterm candidates who

39:05 have really who have really gotten their bases on fire.

39:09 They're still kind of living in the Donald Trump personality shadow.

39:13 And so people like Graham Latner have are bigger,

39:15 I think, than the individual brand of their party.

39:18 And I think that's a change right now

39:21 because of how um invested the Democratic base is.

39:24 I think a big shift that's happening on them

39:26 is that the most interested parts of the Democratic base,

39:28 the most who are most politically news savvy have become so much more activisty,

39:33 so much more invested.

39:34 They want a fight and that kind of no kingsish shift.

39:38 I'm like it hasn't been necessarily has

39:40 maybe it's become a little more progressive,

39:42 but it's certainly become more um activist.

39:45 it's certainly become more um uh less

39:47 passive for I think the traditional Democratic playbook.

39:51 And so I think those shifts are some of what we're

39:53 seeing in Maine and I think what we're seeing across the country.

39:55 And here's the second expert question from Ben Collins, the CEO of The Onion.

40:00 Cara Aet.

40:01 Hello.

40:02 Uh great to see you from the wonderful city of Chicago.

40:04 This is Ben Collins, the owner of The Onion and also operator of Infowars.

40:10 So uh there's a war on your mind, you know.

40:13 Anyways, uh, first time long time.

40:15 I just wanted to ask you a quick question.

40:18 Um, don't give me a[ __] answer like Amy Clolobashar or something.

40:23 Who is your real secret dark horse for 28?

40:26 Like mine is like George Clooney.

40:30 I think you can do much better than that.

40:34 But I want like a name.

40:35 Do not like if you say Alyssa Slotkin, Cara, just turn the podcast off.

40:40 Like end the podcast.

40:42 I want to hear like a real left field D that you

40:44 legitimately think could win both the nomination and the presidency in 2028.

40:50 So thank you.

40:52 The only I love the question.

40:54 The only unfair part here is he stole the good answer which with George Clooney.

40:58 I'm definitely team um outsider as underrated.

41:02 I'm definitely think that there is appetite

41:05 for someone who represents a clean break.

41:07 I think things like experience have actually decreased in importance around

41:11 the electorate and c creativity and ideas like we talked about matter more.

41:16 Um so I think that name ID plus

41:20 um plus legitimacy on like some liberal credentials.

41:25 Uh so he took Clooney, I'll take Mccane.

41:28 Um or maybe like a Brown version of people

41:32 are kind of down on the rock these days.

41:34 Um, I'll go back to like uh, no,

41:39 I I'll stick with I'll stick with I'll just plus one his Clooney.

41:42 I think that's a good I think that's a good call

41:44 and I think that's the exact type of lane I'm talking about.

41:47 All right, let's get to the Democrats.

41:48 Uh, we only got a little time.

41:50 Um, the current state, according to a poll by Civics, uh, non uh,

41:54 white non-ol graduates currently have 70%

41:57 unfavorable opinion of the Democratic party.

41:59 That's actually good.

42:00 It seems like being anti-Trump isn't enough for the Democrats,

42:03 even when Trump is unpopular.

42:04 As you said, it's neverending internal debate over whether the party

42:07 should moderate its social positions or to broaden his appeal,

42:10 double down on progressive economic policies.

42:13 Talk a little bit about this.

42:15 Would either one work with workingclass white voters?

42:18 Bernie is still enormously popular and it

42:21 seems like AOC is headed that direction,

42:23 too, but I don't maybe she's a lady, so they can't stomach that.

42:26 I remember being in Iowa in 2019 and meeting

42:29 this guy who was so torn between Bernie and Mike Bloomberg

42:34 and I remember thinking like what you

42:36 know what's the consistency here you know like

42:39 and you talk to people for long enough time and the consistency is not

42:43 in that ideological spectrum right he's not pro-

42:46 billillionaire one day and anti-billionaire the next day

42:49 he basically liked a guy with strongish beliefs who he

42:54 felt he knew what they want what they cared about,

42:57 no matter if what they cared about seemed to be um at odds with one another.

43:03 And I say that to say when we talk about this kind of ideological fight,

43:07 I think the Democrats biggest problem is um

43:10 clarity of beliefs no matter what those beliefs are.

43:14 So I think you can be I think you can own

43:17 a kind of moderate lane in a Mikey Sher way and show

43:20 that you know I'm going to cry a national emergency

43:23 to lower your electricity prices and that makes a lot of sense

43:26 but I think you can also have clarity in the Zoron way

43:29 and that makes a lot of sense in that place but I

43:33 what I think you can't do is is waffle on naming

43:39 the villains of an affordability crisis of inflation of things like Yeah.

43:43 And I think there are issues that have such root among electorate

43:47 they become litmus test for authenticity

43:50 on will you speak truthfully about villains.

43:53 You know I think Epstein's part of that.

43:55 I think Apac money is part of that now.

43:57 Like I think there's ways that the the the you have to show

44:01 yourself as being trustworthy to follow

44:04 through on said ideas around electability.

44:07 But ma more than anything, I think that the conversation about where to fall

44:12 on this ideological spectrum inherently leads them in bad directions.

44:18 Because if you're putting your finger to the wind and saying

44:22 that's where you're starting from, right?

44:24 And how do I calibrate that correctly to where people are?

44:27 That's the wrong process.

44:29 Yeah.

44:29 So basically what you're saying is this we have to all agree.

44:32 I'm like no you don't.

44:33 Why do you have to agree?

44:34 You don't.

44:34 And cuz I I I think Mani's single-minded focus on affordability is working,

44:39 but even though it's hard to imagine

44:40 a Democratic socialist winning in another state necessarily.

44:44 Um, but either are there talk about the practical lessons

44:48 here because obviously he's charismatic and he's just a really

44:51 wonderful communicator in so many ways and I have

44:54 yet to see him stumble in something and I you

44:57 know it's easy to stumble but talk about what

45:00 that what that does because uh as you said Mickey

45:04 Cheryl or Abby Spamber or you know Taler Rico couldn't

45:08 be more different from each other and from him right?

45:12 Yeah.

45:12 I mean, I think they're coming to things though

45:15 with uh uh with a desire for political creativity.

45:18 I think they're not seeing the the the system as is.

45:22 And I think you have to pitch from the premise of that sort of change.

45:25 And what I would also say though is

45:27 like like I feels like Democratic base has recognized

45:31 that um the the normal shell game of kind

45:35 of electability is not something they're inherently differential to.

45:38 So, I don't think you can just say, you know, as they're finding out in Maine,

45:42 as they may find out in Michigan,

45:44 that this person's supposed to win and this person

45:46 went and and the electorate just follows.

45:48 I feel like they they, you know,

45:50 a lot of people feel like they have been told the right thing

45:53 to do for too long and that walked them into a Donald Trump,

45:56 you know, and so that kind of that kind of a thumb on scale,

46:01 particularly from the DSCC's of the world, is not what's working.

46:04 Now, does that mean that there's can be no moderate candidate that wins?

46:07 Absolutely not.

46:08 Like I think that that means you need to be someone who has your own

46:12 version of a vision that isn't someone who is like you know so I

46:16 you know I think about the Michigan Senator Alyssa Lock as someone even you

46:20 know she was having that back and forth with Assam[ __] about whether to come

46:23 to Michigan or not and I remember her response being like you know I

46:26 don't want to go on the stream because of how this person's talked about me

46:28 for a long time and I'm thinking like that gets that's like a clearer

46:32 way to articulate what I think is someone who is you know trying to show

46:36 themselves as fighter and all those things wants to stay distant from far left

46:40 but does not want it to be because she can't handle those questions or she

46:43 tries to like but it's you know so I'm saying like there's a way

46:46 that I think you can show your values show clarity in those values and also

46:52 um not make um question you know not make the far left or the growing

46:57 progressive lane inherently offputting to you right

47:00 like I think that the true um

47:03 you know I think that this will next year will be an effort to build

47:06 that coalition But it's going to be difficult because we see these litmus tests,

47:11 you know, popping up already.

47:13 And I think you see an electorate that is sick of litmus test is sick of sick.

47:19 It's so interesting.

47:20 I, you know, it's like doesn't fall on that same litmus

47:24 test barometer as kind of political elites do.

47:26 So they're imposing these tests that I don't think is where voters are.

47:31 You know, purity tests on both sides.

47:33 And by the way, Republicans are abusing them more at this point,

47:35 even though some on the left and progressive areas can be really irritating.

47:39 So can some of the centrist people be really irritating.

47:42 But but it but the purity test thing is really

47:45 sha chafes people's asses as far as I can tell.

47:48 Like can't I be, you know, can't I have different opinions?

47:51 Um now that said, Virginia voters just paved

47:54 way for a Democraticleaning new map to help

47:56 counter Republican gerrymanders in states like Texas

47:58 and Ohio and and AOC had the right point.

48:01 we're playing their game if they want to play this.

48:03 She she was excellent messaging that, I have to say.

48:06 But according to population trends,

48:08 the 2030 census will lead to Democratic states losing six to 12 House seats.

48:12 Republican states gain the seats in corresponding electoral college votes.

48:15 And Supreme Court is poised to overturn section two of the Voting

48:18 Rights Act and potentially hand at least another 19 seats to Republicans.

48:22 talk about looking past the midterms,

48:25 how you assess the medium and long-term prospects for Democrats or what are you

48:29 seeing out there that might be helpful if they want to convince those voters,

48:35 you know, go with us because

48:37 yeah, I mean, you're right that the it was an impressive

48:40 kind of short-term push for things like Virginia to happen.

48:42 I think they fought Democrats to semi-neutral or even close

48:46 to leading for when it comes to this year's midterms.

48:48 But the long-term population shifts, the trends towards Republican areas will be

48:52 bad for Democrats in the electoral college.

48:54 The gap between um you know the Senate kind of um uh proportion gap will

48:58 be harder and harder for them to find their way to things like 60 votes.

49:02 And I think you know even we think about the court packing that Donald

49:06 Trump is engaged in that obviously is

49:07 difficult to wind back with lifetime appointments.

49:11 And so I, you know, obviously the kind

49:12 of structures of government have given Republicans, I think,

49:16 a a clear advantage in this in the sort of long-term power sustainability,

49:21 but Democrats have known some of these challenges.

49:23 There was the reason why um uh uh you know,

49:26 the John Lewis Act was supposed to be a top

49:29 priority for the Biden administration um um in terms

49:33 of like trying to have a national bullwalk against

49:35 gerrymandering and trying to make Congress at least more equitable.

49:39 they weren't able to pass those things.

49:40 I think what makes if you're I think if you're a Democrat,

49:43 what I do think is more true now though is

49:46 a willingness to use power and a willingness to pull the levers

49:50 in ways that I think traditionally I think it took them

49:53 a long time of seeing Donald Trump do that to embrace that themselves.

49:57 And so I think if there is a Democratic president in 2028,

50:00 there will be a much more concerted push for more muscular activity.

50:05 Yeah.

50:05 for a more muscular uh rethink of how of some

50:09 of these structures for a for a project 2028ish,

50:14 you know, 2029 sort of thing where

50:17 they're thinking about how they even use things

50:21 like uh the federal workforce or how they restore

50:24 those type and so like that type of kind

50:26 of 360 rethink I think allows there to be

50:29 more solutions on the real structural things you're identifying.

50:33 But without that, that is where Republicans know they have permanent root.

50:38 They're not as worried about their waning

50:41 electoral advantages because one, you know,

50:45 they eight years ago thought they couldn't

50:47 win any working class people of color votes.

50:50 They now learned that that's not

50:52 something that's like inherently offputting to them.

50:54 And then the second thing I think they know is they have they know

50:58 that there are some of these structures that have baked in their power, right?

51:01 And so I think if you're a Democrat that has to be amongst the priorities,

51:05 but if there is some more willingness for the party to at least exercise,

51:09 you're seeing the governors do it.

51:10 The governors, the Democrat, that's a big push, too.

51:13 Pritsker is one of those.

51:14 Newsome obviously in different ways.

51:16 There's very few of them that aren't quite good at what they're doing.

51:19 Like, and you could see their popularity, too.

51:21 Like, you can I think that's still what we're talking about.

51:23 Yeah, you're in Michigan.

51:24 We love Gretch even Republic, you know, not maybe as much, but still

51:29 that type of willingness to use do what you

51:31 came there to do and show that proof proof point,

51:34 I think is a lasting um uh impact of the of the post2024 era for Democrats.

51:39 So, so wrapping up, we only have just a few more minutes.

51:41 Um, you know, there's lots of issues, the war in Iran,

51:44 obviously with twothirds of Americans disapproving how he's handling it.

51:47 Obviously, the Epstein thing still uh still sticks over everything.

51:52 he's there in the room every moment of the time.

51:54 Um that will eventually Wayne probably.

51:57 Um but you know the war for sure is one of these moments.

52:00 Gas prices, affordability.

52:03 Um there's so many things and of course Trump says

52:06 gas prices will drop as soon as the war ends,

52:08 but the Pentagon says it could take he's not telling the truth.

52:11 But um talk a little that that said,

52:14 how do you look at what the most important issues are moving

52:18 into the midterms as you're looking because the midterms is about postTrump.

52:22 It really is.

52:22 It's about what what now?

52:25 What do you what do you think the key um the key things are?

52:31 like the e easiest thing for the midterms is the popularity of the president

52:35 and I would say what kind of gas prices are, you know,

52:38 and I think in the trade direction that we're in, in the in the in the tariff

52:42 to inflation direction that we're in and um that's all bad signs.

52:46 Uh I think the second thing you think about

52:48 with the midterms is like the candidate quality in those individual

52:50 races and Democrats have basically gotten the candidates they mostly

52:54 want that also helps them in these sort of things.

52:58 And so I think that when um we're looking at the seeds here,

53:02 all the signs do add up to something that would be a better night or at least

53:07 the conditions are right for Democrats to do

53:10 what they hope to do in the midterms.

53:12 I guess to me we still go back to that structure question because

53:16 the only you know it can be a blue wave or a blue

53:20 trickle or whatever but the way that we have drawn these maps means

53:24 that if that doesn't happen in a concerted area for for for like

53:29 of you know if that doesn't happen in these three Arizona house districts

53:32 you might still be thinking about only a one or two seat majority

53:36 and so that's the hard part about these midterms is that the pure

53:40 expression of people's displeasure does not inherently

53:44 mean some national wave reflected in Congress.

53:47 Right.

53:48 Very good point.

53:49 And so I think people should temper some of the expectations with that.

53:53 But to answer the core question are the conditions there

53:56 and and what are the first things we should look at?

53:58 We should look at this president's massive unpopularity

54:01 and particularly the pain he's driving in people's pockets.

54:03 That's the that will be the most important.

54:06 Yeah.

54:06 So let's last very quick question.

54:08 Um, on a hopeful note,

54:09 America actually has a partnership with Report for America,

54:11 an organization that puts emerging journalists in local newsrooms nationwide.

54:16 I'd love you just to end on what are some unreported

54:19 positive stories you're getting from these young boots on the ground reporters.

54:23 Yeah, we just talked to one in Arizona who was telling

54:25 us about the like um how uh the mass organization among

54:30 uh young people who have done a lot of the um

54:32 a lot of the grassroots pushing back against Trump's deportation policies.

54:36 We're hearing stories from we're collecting stories

54:38 from them about the World Cup and about like the ways that uh that that you

54:43 know is kind of logistically changing their some

54:45 of their communities but also bringing a sense of like optimism and and a sense

54:50 of representation to parts of their states

54:52 that they like you know that felt unseen.

54:55 Um and so I really like them as like a touchstone to the ground.

54:58 I really like them as a way um that we

55:01 get a sense of original reporting outside the bubble.

55:04 But I'm excited to get even more things from them.

55:07 But um you know, but we expect them to be

55:09 at gas stations this summer and talking to people at you know,

55:12 the pumps, what they're talking and what they're feeling too.

55:15 And so their ability to feed that back to us,

55:18 I think um will really help us out.

55:20 Have grocery store I I who don't look at prices I don't I just never do.

55:24 I never have.

55:24 I'm like what?

55:26 Like I I've never done that in my life.

55:28 I Yeah.

55:28 No, it's it's wild out here.

55:30 I feel like when I was outside, when I was doing a lot of that reporting,

55:33 Walmart parking lots, my favorite and so, uh, we'll have them there, too.

55:37 Yeah.

55:38 Yeah.

55:38 Which would be great.

55:38 Like a lot of places because I think there's inc I think voters

55:41 are much more I always trust voters to be more articulate even though,

55:45 you know, you can make fun of MAGA people or whoever doesn't know stuff,

55:47 that's easy picking.

55:49 Yeah.

55:49 But when it comes to prices,

55:50 when it comes to how they're feeling and and and the clarity

55:53 of how much that matters more than other things, I love hearing that firsthand.

55:58 Rightstead, thank you for your time.

55:59 And you can find America Actually on YouTube and wherever you get your podcast.

56:03 I'm thrilled you're here.

56:05 Today's show was produced by Christian Casterell,

56:08 Michelle Aloy, Katherine Milsop, Megan Bernie, and Kaitlin Lynch.

56:11 Nishad Kerwa is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts.

56:15 Special thanks to Sam Lee, Katherine Barner, and Julia Sharp Lavine.

56:19 And our theme music is by Trackademics.

56:22 If you're already following this show, may James Telerico,

56:24 also known as Baby Jesus, bless you.

56:27 If not, you've got the Antichrist spirit.

56:31 Thanks for watching.

56:32 See you on Thursday.