Trump announces 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, prisoner swap ahead of Victory Day Parade | DW News

0:00 Now, Russia and Ukraine have agreed a 3-day ceasefire from tomorrow,

0:04 Saturday, until Monday, the 11th of May.

0:07 The ceasefire and prisoner swap were announced by US

0:10 President Donald Trump and later confirmed by both sides.

0:14 Ukraine says President Zelenskyy said his country would not target Russia's

0:19 May 9th Victory Day celebrations marking the end of World War II.

0:24 Russia had already planned to slim down

0:26 its usual parade following several Ukrainian drone strikes.

0:31 Putin's main patriotic event is under threat and being scaled down as a result.

0:37 The Kyiv regime, which is losing ground on the battlefield,

0:41 has now fully turned to terrorist activity.

0:46 Look at how Russia usually celebrates its annual military parade.

0:51 Happy great Victory Day.

0:58 Military hardware on display, the pride of Russia's army,

1:02 foreign leaders in the stands like China's Xi Jinping last year.

1:06 The guest list itself was always a way

1:08 for Russia to show off its foreign policy reach, but this year is different.

1:13 No heavy military equipment, a shorter list of foreign leaders,

1:17 no huge crowds on the streets.

1:20 Against the backdrop of the terrorist threats,

1:23 measures are being taken to minimize the danger.

1:29 The reason an unprecedented scale of Ukrainian drone attacks.

1:33 This graph shows how sharply the number has risen inside Russia.

1:38 Drones now reach thousands of kilometers from the front line,

1:41 potentially threatening the parade and the president himself.

1:45 According to a report by a European

1:47 intelligence agency cited by several media outlets,

1:50 Vladimir Putin fears not only Ukrainian drones,

1:54 but that members of his own circle could target him.

1:57 In these satellite images,

1:58 you can see the 27 air defense

2:01 systems installed around Putin's residence in the countryside.

2:05 That's twice as many as last year.

2:09 Putin's desire to distance himself from society is not only connected to fear.

2:14 He's also no longer the president of hope.

2:17 He's no longer everyone's favorite.

2:19 But, ditching this year's Victory Parade wasn't an option.

2:24 The Kremlin couldn't cancel the parade because

2:26 that would look like a sign of weakness.

2:29 So, instead, they're holding it in a shortened format.

2:33 Because even if there is no actual strike,

2:35 just an alert that forces Putin to leave his stand,

2:39 it would still be a blow to his personal image.

2:43 The war is also becoming harder for ordinary Russians to ignore.

2:46 Many are unhappy the parade is going ahead at all and question

2:50 the Kremlin's move to shut down mobile internet for security reasons.

2:55 Name me one objective reason why the internet isn't working.

2:59 How does blocking it help protect the city and the country?

3:04 Why hold the parade at all?

3:06 You shut down the internet across the entire city, the country's capital,

3:10 cut off millions of people, paralyze businesses,

3:12 and still the parade has to go ahead.

3:18 Polls show Russia's war itself is becoming more unpopular, too,

3:22 with almost seven out of 10 people saying they want peace talks with Ukraine.

3:28 It's unlikely Putin will listen to them,

3:30 but the Kremlin's increased focus on security suggests

3:33 [music] the president isn't feeling as confident as before.

3:39 Let's explore this with Leon Aron.

3:40 He's a writer and expert on Russian domestic and foreign politics.

3:44 His most recent book is Riding the Tiger:

3:47 Vladimir Putin's Russia and the Uses of War.

3:50 A welcome to DW.

3:52 Let's start with that announcement and confirmation of a ceasefire.

3:57 Was a prisoner swap originally on the cards or was

4:00 that Russia trying to sweeten the the pot as it were?

4:05 Well, it's it's for both Ukraine and Russia the the 9th

4:11 of May or the Victory Day has a potential symbolic

4:15 meaning and I think it's it's only normal that the prisoner

4:21 exchange is is going to take place on on that day.

4:25 What's interesting of course is that you know,

4:29 while the parade is being pretty much scaled down,

4:34 there are both countries are going to go ahead with the prisoner exchange.

4:38 Okay, and where are you on this discussion of whether or not Vladimir Putin

4:42 is running scared or is that just wishful thinking on lots of people's parts?

4:48 Yes, I think it's mostly wishful thinking.

4:50 I think one of the one of the reasons for this pretty

4:55 pitiful format of the parade for the first time no tanks.

5:02 The guests are all from essentially all from Russian protectorates

5:06 or other dependencies three countries are not even recognized by anybody.

5:13 Very pitiful.

5:14 Is to convey to the Russian people that the situation is tough.

5:21 That he is making even if symbolic sacrifices

5:26 and they should tighten their belts as well.

5:30 I think that is the message of this parade.

5:34 I don't think he's running scared,

5:37 but I think with the sagging economy

5:40 and the endless seemingly endless war for the first

5:43 time we saw his numbers going down and that is with all the biases Right.

5:49 that uh polling in a authoritarian society uh have.

5:54 I mean that I think you you tell me,

5:56 but that doesn't that tell us quite a lot if if if Vladimir Putin,

6:01 who isn't who's Russia is not officially at war with anyone,

6:05 if he has to signal to his people,

6:06 well, actually things are pretty bad at the moment.

6:10 That sounds like a shift in in tone if not in substance.

6:17 Well, I agree completely.

6:19 Um so, there were rumors that Putin doesn't know,

6:23 that he is so isolated either biologically

6:26 because of his age and mental capacity,

6:29 or because his advisers are not telling him.

6:31 I think with this parade he felt that I let he he had a dilemma.

6:35 Either he conveys this uh the severity of the situation

6:41 to the people symbolically by scaling down the parade,

6:44 or he goes ahead with the parade as if nothing is going on.

6:48 And I think frankly, politically he made the right decision.

6:52 What do you make of this and so far unverified report supposedly from a European

6:57 intelligence agency that the Russian president is also

7:00 fearful of attacks from within his own circle?

7:05 Look, this is a part for the course for any dictator.

7:09 They are they wake up every day trying to figure

7:13 out who and how could do something to them.

7:16 The problem is, certainly in the Russian experience or the Soviet experience,

7:21 that they never get it right.

7:22 Uh Stalin never would have thought of of Nikita Khrushchev as dismantling,

7:27 at least in part, his legacy.

7:30 And of course, Khrushchev appointed Leonid Brezhnev as his, you know,

7:34 symbolic top adviser or symbolic uh head of the Supreme Soviet,

7:39 thinking that he's a nonentity and and nothing

7:41 there's no danger coming from him.

7:43 Well, both of them were pretty active in dismantling their predecessors legacy.

7:51 So, so yes, he's thinking about it, but no,

7:54 I don't think we could ever identify the actual

7:58 plotter or the actual head of a potential plot.

8:02 Okay.

8:02 So, just to just to explore this notion of business as usual,

8:05 you don't give any particular credence then

8:08 to these reports of this this Western intelligence report that all this is going

8:13 on because as far as you're concerned, this is always going on.

8:18 Yes, and and I I've I've been I've been with following Russia for quite a while,

8:23 and I still remember that those rumors

8:26 accompanied virtually every Russian leader,

8:28 every Soviet leader, Brezhnev, Andropov, Gorbachev.

8:32 There's always a rumor in the background of a potential plot.

8:36 They they take care of themselves pretty well.

8:39 The only problem is whether those around them

8:44 at some point begin to doubt their ability to lead.

8:49 Whether it leads to an actual plot or whether they're they're simply going

8:53 to wait for that person to succumb to natural causes is a big question.

9:00 Good talking to you.

9:00 Fascinating analysis, and we thank you for it, Leon Aron.

9:07 I'm now joined by former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov.

9:10 He held office from 2000 to 2004 while

9:13 Vladimir Putin was in his first term as president.

9:16 He also worked in Boris Yeltsin's administration.

9:19 Mr.

9:20 Kasyanov lives in exile.

9:21 He is on the list of designated extremists and terrorists in Russia.

9:25 Welcome to DW News, Mr.

9:27 Kasyanov.

9:28 So, there have been reports in Western media

9:31 that Vladimir Putin has grown increasingly paranoid about his security,

9:35 that he fears being targeted by members of his own inner circle.

9:40 Just how real from from your perspective is

9:43 the threat of an assassination or a coup against him?

9:48 Well, there is no actual real threat, but of course,

9:52 it is absolutely evident that Putin increases his security security system

9:59 so that to be absolutely sure that no one nothing could happen.

10:04 That is that is because of overall overall problems growing problems.

10:08 He has problems in the society.

10:10 Finally, finally just the whole attitude to to to the war

10:15 and to Putin's regime started to to to change.

10:19 And we have sociological poll of Levada Center which is difficult of course

10:26 to have sociological poll in such atmosphere in Russia what Putin created,

10:31 but still that that's the sociological poll shows that already 62%

10:37 of Russians would like to stop the war and switch to negotiations.

10:41 That is that is absolutely the the important

10:45 signal that society already fed up of all

10:47 this this of the war and all the this squeezing

10:51 of whole environment political environment public environment in Russia.

10:57 That's why that's the the changes already started

10:59 and I think this is the the the victory day.

11:02 It is that always was a great date for for Mr.

11:05 Putin and he played a lot on this.

11:09 And now just the parade that was important

11:13 signal for the whole world and his speech.

11:16 And we will have to listen tomorrow what Mr.

11:19 Putin will say.

11:20 I think there would be some kind of couple of notes which we I

11:25 believe will hear that that he will be dreaming about the ending the war soon.

11:31 But of course, he wants on his conditions.

11:33 But, in any case, the situation moves and and changes.

11:40 And I'm interested to hear what what you would be

11:42 listening out for when he gives that Victory Day Parade speech.

11:47 What would be the telling sign to you that perhaps

11:50 he he is really considering ways to end the war quickly.

11:53 As you say, it's a very unpopular war with the Russian public.

11:58 He will continue saying the same thing,

12:00 that we wanted to to to bring freedom to Russian-speaking population.

12:07 We promised to to them to to liberate them, and we achieved this.

12:11 All goals of of the so-called special military operation achieved,

12:17 and just that would be we would like to end,

12:20 and the whole world is listening and watching

12:23 on this, and this Ukrainian regime is always awful.

12:28 That's what will be continued to think.

12:30 But, in fact, the problem is that the internal internal growing,

12:35 I would say I wouldn't say dissent, but disagreement with the with the this war.

12:41 And growing economic problems, that's what move Putin to to some

12:46 sort of some sort of consideration, definitely.

12:49 And And on that point then, on that point then,

12:52 how much longer can he sustain this war from your intel inside Russia?

12:58 Just how much longer can they continue with this aggression given

13:01 the Ukrainians are also being very effective with these drone attacks?

13:06 That's absolutely.

13:07 Ukraine's Ukraine's just developed absolutely great system,

13:12 and they already have an advantage in in a drone attacks and on all ranges.

13:17 But, the the answering your question, we have to understand the main point right

13:23 now it should be that is transatlantic unity.

13:27 There should be equal understanding what this war

13:31 is about because in Europe European leaders

13:34 all European leaders understand that there is

13:36 an aggressor and and there is a victim.

13:39 But while we see just President Trump and his administration,

13:42 they believe that is two sides two sides just they they both guilty.

13:46 They just have a dispute.

13:48 They hate each other and they should

13:49 should step step down just with the concessions.

13:52 Why Ukraine should give a concession?

13:54 That's the problem.

13:55 There is no equal understanding.

13:57 There should be unity coordinated efforts to pressing of Putin regime.

14:02 And right now when we have oil price again

14:05 up more than $100 per barrel and over average

14:09 on the first quarter and for Russian euros that's

14:12 already was 95 while just the budget expected 59.

14:17 That's already double.

14:18 That's already increase of foreign exchange inflow

14:21 into the country which helps Putin to finance the war.

14:25 That's the problem and that's was prolonged prolonged

14:28 just expectation of the end of the war.

14:31 Well, thank you very much for for those insights.

14:34 That's our Russia's former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov.

14:37 We appreciate your time on DW.

14:39 Thank you.