Can the USA and Israel Win?

0:11 Since October 7, 2023,

0:12 the Middle East has been in the midst of another cycle of violence.

0:16 But what is happening now in the region-

0:19 a major escalation as a result of the joint American

0:21 and Israeli attack on Iran- seems like something

0:24 that has the potential to have truly earth-shattering geopolitical consequences.

0:28 That is, if America and Israel do not win the war.

0:32 But what exactly would qualify as a victory for the sides?

0:35 And is it feasible to achieve this victory?

0:38 Watch this video to find our take on these matters.

1:04 BACKGROUND Turns out that the June 2025 war

1:27 between Israel and Iran was merely a prelude.

1:30 After practically destroying Iran’s air defense,

1:33 significantly damaging its military industrial complex and nuclear

1:36 infrastructure with the help of the United States,

1:39 Israel and America declared victory and opted not to prolong the war.

1:43 The feeling was that the damage inflicted on Iran

1:46 may be sufficient to bring down the regime, which appeared very vulnerable.

1:50 And when the people of Iran rose up once again in massive

1:53 numbers in early 2026 to protest

1:56 a horrible economic situation and political repression,

1:59 it felt like the writing was on the wall.

2:02 But the regime managed to defeat the protest

2:04 movement by cracking down with full force.

2:07 Thousands have been killed during the protests,

2:09 and even the Iranian government admitted to a death toll of more than 3k people,

2:14 while some estimate the casualties to have been higher than 30k people.

2:19 But while the crackdown was still going on, the US president Donald Trump made

2:23 a promise to the Iranian people fighting the regime- “Help is on the way”.

2:28 The American Carrier Strike Group 3,

2:30 with the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln

2:33 as the flagship and other US military assets, started moving to the Middle East.

2:38 Israel was also signalling its intention to renew hostilities against Iran.

2:42 Peace talks focused on the American demands for Iran

2:45 to give up its enriched uranium and nuclear program,

2:48 along with its ballistic missiles program and support

2:50 to its proxies in the Middle East,

2:53 were destined to fail, as the United States continued its military buildup.

2:57 Everything pointed to another round of war between the sides,

3:00 perhaps this time a decisive one.

3:02 THE START OF THE WAR On February 28,

3:04 the United States of America and Israel launched their air strike

3:08 campaigns with the respective codenames Operation

3:10 Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion.

3:12 A mass number of missiles and drones were fired on Iran,

3:17 the remaining air defense capacity of which, after the June 2025 war,

3:21 has been utterly incapable of dealing with this onslaught.

3:23 On the first day of the war, the attacking side made approximately 900

3:28 airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile sites,

3:31 its remaining air defenses and its military and political leadership.

3:35 Particularly, the impact on the latter has been devastating.

3:39 On February 28, the airstrikes killed

3:41 the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei,

3:44 the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,

3:47 Mohammad Pakpour, the Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh,

3:49 the Chief of the Military Office of the Supreme Leader,

3:52 Mohammad Shirazi and many other senior political and military leaders of Iran,

3:57 with Donald Trump claiming the number of 40 killed.

4:00 Iran was practically decapitated on the first day of the war.

4:04 One of the American strikes hit the Minab Girls’ School,

4:07 which killed more than 170 schoolgirls.

4:09 Local sources reported that the school was

4:12 previously the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Facility,

4:16 which probably means that the Americans

4:18 made this strike based on outdated intelligence.

4:21 Still, this does not excuse the killing of so many children.

4:25 Within hours of the initial American and Israeli strikes,

4:28 Iran responded by launching Operation True Promise IV.

4:31 Iran fired rockets and drones at Israel, at American bases in the Middle East,

4:36 but also at the crucial infrastructure of the American Gulf allies.

4:40 Bahrain’s capital, Manama; the Saudi capital, Riyadh; the UAE capital,

4:44 Abu Dhabi; the Kuwait International Airport, and so on.

4:47 Iran's response indicated a couple of things.

4:50 Iran has been able to achieve at least some

4:53 degree of decentralization in decision-making, and as a result,

4:56 even the death of the Supreme Leader and most

4:59 military commanders did not prevent it from answering strongly.

5:02 Along with that, Iran chose the “if we burn,

5:05 then everyone around us burns too” strategy.

5:08 The logic behind this strategy is to increase the cost

5:11 of this war not only on the US and Israel

5:13 but also on the Gulf monarchies in order to force

5:16 them to persuade the United States to stop the war.

5:19 In early March, the United States and Israel

5:22 continued striking Iran with the Islamic Republic’s missile infrastructure,

5:25 from manufacturing plants to missile launchers, recognizing that at this point,

5:30 the most important weapons in the Iranian arsenal are its missiles,

5:33 along with its slow-moving, but cheap and disposable drones.

5:36 After firing missiles in three-digit numbers on the first 3 days of the war,

5:41 according to different independent reports,

5:43 since then their numbers have been decreasing,

5:46 with Iran firing around 20-30 ballistic and cruise missiles in the ensuing days.

5:51 The American and Israeli strikes on Iran’s missile

5:54 infrastructure have arguably played a key role here,

5:57 while Iran has also depleted its missile numbers to a certain extent

6:01 and is probably conserving its resources in preparation for a long war.

6:04 Along with responding with missile and drone strikes in the Middle East,

6:08 Iran also took steps to expand the geography of the conflict in early March.

6:13 Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, started shelling the Israeli territory,

6:16 to which Israel responded by moving its

6:19 army into South Lebanon and conducting airstrikes.

6:21 Iran has also launched several ballistic missiles on Turkish territory,

6:25 presumably targeting the Incirlik base of the United States,

6:29 along with launching several drones on Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan.

6:33 HORMUZ BLOCKADE But Iran’s biggest escalatory response was

6:35 declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping.

6:38 Why is it so important?

6:40 Because roughly 20% of all seaborne oil trade,

6:43 the oil of the Gulf countries passes through this narrow chokehold.

6:46 Following Iran’s decision, several ships, mostly oil tankers,

6:50 had been hit in the first days of March.

6:53 Iran has used its coastal missile systems, drones, missiles,

6:57 fast attack boats and naval mines to disrupt shipments through the Hormuz.

7:02 Major shipping companies like Maersk,

7:04 CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd suspended transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

7:08 The price of oil jumped from around 65 dollars

7:11 per barrel to over 120 dollars at its peak.

7:14 The price of energy has increased significantly in many European countries,

7:18 the US, and elsewhere.

7:19 As a result of this blockade,

7:22 60% decrease in oil exports from this region was reported by mid-March.

7:28 To mitigate the situation,

7:29 the Trump administration temporarily suspended its embargo on Russian

7:33 oil and allowed countries like India to purchase Russian oil.

7:37 Trump has taken several steps, such as attacking Iran’s coastal batteries,

7:41 bombing the IRGC naval bases and attack boats,

7:44 its underground missile depots and drone launch sites.

7:47 They have also been considering the mine-clearing operations

7:52 to mitigate this crisis and providing protective convoys for tankers,

7:56 which can have only a limited impact

7:57 on shipments as long as the Iranian threat persists.

8:00 The mine-clearing operations will take weeks, if not months,

8:03 before the United States can truly secure

8:05 at least corridors for limited shipping through the Strait.

8:08 So far, the United States has been on its own in trying to de-blockade Hormuz,

8:13 as all its attempts to involve other countries,

8:16 including NATO allies, in these operations have received a similar response:

8:19 “This is not our war”.

8:21 Much like what Trump has been saying about Ukraine.

8:24 Thus, the United States appears on its own in this matter,

8:28 and there are no easy solutions here.

8:30 THE ESCALATION OF THE WAR So, while in the first days of the war,

8:32 while the shock and awe bombardment conducted by the US

8:35 and Israel decapitated Iran and greatly

8:37 damaged its military and civilian infrastructure,

8:39 created a perception that Iran was practically defeated,

8:42 its ensuing strategy of expanding the geography of its

8:45 operations and raising the cost of the war

8:47 for the United States indicates that the assessment

8:50 of the early days has been an overreaction.

8:52 Throughout March, the US-Israeli coalition continued destroying targets in Iran,

8:57 and at one point started flying at very low-altitudes,

8:59 confident that they could operate freely over the Iranian skies.

9:03 There has been an increased focus on Iran’s missile launchers

9:06 and drone launch sites to degrade Iran’s main deterrent in this war.

9:10 More strikes have also been reported on the IRGC infrastructure,

9:13 since this organization now appears in charge of Iran’s war effort.

9:18 So, in a conventional military sense, the United States and Israel continue

9:22 holding an overwhelming advantage in this war.

9:24 Whatever and whoever they can find and deem worthy of striking, they strike.

9:29 But Iran is still standing and wreaking havoc in the Middle East.

9:32 They continue targeting the Gulf states, Israel and American bases.

9:36 They have destroyed or heavily damaged some very expensive equipment,

9:39 like AN-TPY-2 radar systems,

9:41 which support the THAAD air defense system and an AN-FPS-132 Radar.

9:45 Most recently, on March 19,

9:48 Iran somehow managed to hit the American F35 fighter fighter jet.

9:52 The US command has confirmed damage to its F-35,

9:55 marking the first recorded instance of an F-35 being hit.

9:59 Cheap Iranian drones continue being a major nuisance for the Gulf countries.

10:03 The drone attacks sometimes occur in large packages of 50-100 drones,

10:08 and in the absence of other means, their air defenses have to use very

10:13 expensive missiles to down very cheap drones.

10:15 Even in the short term, this is financially infeasible.

10:18 This is where Ukraine enters the equation,

10:21 as arguably the best-equipped and most experienced

10:23 country in dealing with cheap drone swarms,

10:26 since it produces many cheap drone interceptors.

10:29 Ukraine has already sent its military specialists to the Gulf countries

10:33 and will most likely start selling its interceptors in the near future.

10:37 This will likely significantly mitigate the drone threat posed by Iran.

10:41 We also need to discuss the potential for further escalation of the war.

10:45 And here the oil and gas infrastructure

10:47 and water desalination capacity come to the forefront.

10:50 The conventional logic is that since the United States and Israel can destroy

10:55 Iran’s aforementioned facilities and since Iran can

10:58 respond in kind against the Gulf countries,

11:00 both sides would refrain from taking this escalatory step.

11:03 The US desperately wants to avoid an energy crisis in the Middle East,

11:07 since it would be very difficult to contain,

11:10 especially with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.

11:12 Since the start of the war,

11:14 Iran has been targeting the Gulf countries’ oil and gas storage and refineries.

11:18 But these strikes were limited,

11:19 as if trying to convey the message that we can do

11:23 more damage if we need to, don’t dare strike our energy facilities.

11:27 But on March 9-10, Iran started escalating

11:30 by striking the Shah gas field of the Emirates, which meant that the red line

11:35 of not targeting production facilities was now crossed.

11:38 Whatever remained of that red line was shattered when

11:40 Israel hit Iran’s South Pars gas field on March 18.

11:43 Even Donald Trump tweeted about this, claiming

11:46 that the United States had no prior knowledge of the attack and promised no

11:50 more attacks on oil and gas production facilities.

11:53 Even so, Iran responded by striking and damaging

11:56 Qatar’s major Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facility.

12:00 WHAT IS THE ENDGAME AND WHERE WE ARE But where exactly does it leave us now?

12:02 In a nutshell, without a doubt, the United States and Israel have

12:06 significantly degraded Iran’s military and governance capacity.

12:08 But Iran still maintains the capacity to make sensitive strikes

12:12 in Israel and the Gulf despite the American help with air defense.

12:16 On top of that, Iran has so

12:18 far been successfully blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

12:21 Communication from the United States and Israel coming before

12:24 the war makes three goals of this campaign clear: 1.

12:27 Neutralizing Iran as a military threat.

12:30 2.

12:30 Eliminating Iran’s capacity to develop nuclear weapons, and 3.

12:35 Regime change.

12:36 Let’s start with the end goal,

12:37 since regime change would help achieve the first two objectives.

12:40 Khamenei is dead, and Ali Larijani,

12:42 a senior clerical-regime figure and possible de facto leader,

12:46 was killed in an Israeli strike.

12:48 But that does not mean the regime is collapsing.

12:51 President Pezeshkian appears marginal, many IRGC and Basij leaders are dead,

12:56 and it remains unclear how much control the new Supreme Leader,

13:00 Mojtaba Khamenei, actually has.

13:02 Many analysts argue that Iranian

13:04 military decision-making is now highly decentralized,

13:07 with regional IRGC commanders acting with broad autonomy.

13:10 That helps explain the gap between the more conciliatory tone of Foreign

13:15 Minister Aragchi and the IRGC’s continued threats and attacks across the region.

13:19 For now, the IRGC still appears to be the most powerful institution in Iran.

13:24 If the United States and Israel suddenly stopped the war,

13:27 the most likely outcome would be the IRGC

13:30 and the new Supreme Leader reasserting control.

13:32 Many leaders have been killed, but the ideology and governing system,

13:37 backed by millions of supporters, including armed ones, remain intact.

13:41 Many Iranians despise the regime,

13:43 but many others are tied to it ideologically and materially.

13:47 That makes spontaneous regime collapse unlikely without

13:50 either a true mass uprising or foreign intervention.

13:53 So far, there is little sign of such an uprising:

13:57 no major protests have emerged since the war began,

14:00 and the IRGC has already threatened a harsh

14:02 crackdown on anyone who takes to the streets.

14:05 Can we expect a foreign intervention then?

14:07 For all the degradation of Iran’s military,

14:10 its ground forces and the IRGC are still formidable.

14:14 Moreover, Iran’s geography makes it extremely difficult.

14:17 Zagros Mountains to the west,

14:19 and countries that are extremely unlikely to allow a foreign force to use

14:22 them as a base for a ground offensive to the North and East,

14:26 such as Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

14:29 To the South, Iran is on the shore of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman,

14:34 which will require an amphibious landing- not impossible,

14:37 but potentially very costly.

14:38 And even if you manage to enter the country,

14:41 the mountainous terrain of the country and several large deserts,

14:44 make Iran very challenging to operate in.

14:46 A limited operation, such as the occupation of the Kharg or Qeshm islands,

14:51 or even the mainland shore of the Strait of Hormuz to de-blockade it,

14:54 is a possibility, but it would also be extremely costly.

14:57 Even if a foreign force manages to land and capture these areas,

15:01 they would be constantly attacked by Iranian missiles and drones.

15:05 So far, the signals coming from America

15:07 indicate that a limited ground operation like

15:09 the one described above would be the furthest they would be prepared to go.

15:13 Such a limited operation would be another

15:16 major challenge for the embattled regime in Iran,

15:18 but it is unlikely that the capture of small islands

15:21 or even a small mainland territory would lead to its collapse.

15:25 Could an internal armed insurgency by one

15:27 of Iran’s ethnic minorities bring down the regime?

15:30 That seems unlikely.

15:32 Kurdish, Ahwazi Arab,

15:33 and Balochi groups have long fought low-level insurgencies,

15:37 but none has ever posed an existential threat to the state.

15:40 Since the war began, some opposition groups have signaled greater coordination,

15:45 yet Iraqi Kurdish authorities have already said their territory

15:48 will not be used as a base for attacks.

15:50 More importantly, no insurgent force is likely to launch a major

15:55 offensive unless the regime is already

15:57 crumbling through defections and internal collapse.

15:59 But, as discussed, it is hard to see

16:02 that happening without a major foreign ground campaign,

16:05 which also appears unlikely.

16:07 What is our verdict here?

16:08 The clerical regime has so far proven

16:10 itself to be more resilient than many expected.

16:13 Surely, it has been weakened, but it is still in power.

16:17 Barring a major ground offensive or some unforeseen internal collapse,

16:21 the likelihood of a regime change appears low.

16:24 Is a Venezuela-style behind the closed doors

16:27 deal with a high-ranking regime official a possibility?

16:30 Well, it is not completely impossible and Americans can

16:33 presumably find somebody to talk to find a middle ground,

16:36 but since it is completely within the realm

16:38 of speculation in absence of any relevant information,

16:41 we are not going to delve any further on this possibility.

16:45 What about the elimination of Iran’s nuclear potential?

16:47 Despite being one of the key talking points prior to the start of the war,

16:52 Iran’s nuclear facilities have not been the primary target in this war.

16:56 During the June 2025 war, Israel and the US did much more to weaken it

17:01 by severely damaging or destroying nuclear

17:03 facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.

17:05 But this was not enough to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear program,

17:10 as Iran still likely possesses about 440 kg of enriched uranium,

17:14 which is sufficient to produce 10 nuclear bombs.

17:17 At the same time, they still possess the industrial

17:21 and technological capacity to rebuild whatever has been destroyed.

17:24 In the currently ongoing war, the US and Israel have been targeting

17:28 the entrance points of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

17:31 This was the case in Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities.

17:35 The most likely goal here is to deny

17:37 the access of Iranians into these facilities,

17:39 perhaps to prevent them from recovering

17:41 the enriched uranium or other buried material.

17:44 Thus, the condition of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is

17:47 more or less the same as before the war.

17:50 Significantly battered, but not completely dismantled.

17:52 And it is difficult to see how, without a ground invasion,

17:56 the US and Israel can verify the current

17:59 state of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and destroy it.

18:02 What about Iran’s conventional military capacity?

18:04 This is where the United States and Israel have been the most successful.

18:09 Iran’s air defense is practically destroyed.

18:12 Israeli officials claim that 350 to 400

18:15 missile launchers have been either destroyed or disabled,

18:19 with only 150 still active.

18:21 Many Iranian aircraft and naval assets, and bases have been destroyed.

18:24 The same is true for command-and-control centers,

18:27 military bases, and missile and drone production facilities.

18:31 At this point in the war,

18:33 it is difficult to claim numbers because of the fog of war,

18:36 but all available data and analysis point

18:38 to a drastic damage to Iran’s conventional military capacity.

18:42 In a conventional military conflict,

18:44 this is the point when Iran is ripe for a ground invasion.

18:48 So, in a conventional sense,

18:49 the United States and Israel can claim that they have achieved this goal.

18:54 But since Iran is fighting an asymmetric war,

18:56 in the absence of any other options,

18:58 the current level of destruction does not constitute

19:00 a victory for the United States and Israel,

19:03 if we understand war as the continuation of politics by other means.

19:07 In itself, the degradation of Iran’s military capacity will likely constrain its

19:11 ability to project power in the Middle East to a certain extent,

19:15 but if Iran remains capable of producing and launching

19:18 drones and missiles at Israel and the Gulf countries,

19:21 it will continue to remain a threat.

19:23 CONCLUSION Here too, the conclusion remains the same.

19:25 Iran has been utterly devastated,

19:27 and it will take perhaps decades to recover from this war.

19:31 Its leaders are at the mercy of the American or Israeli decision-makers.

19:35 But without a ground operation or an unexpected

19:38 mass movement that will topple the regime,

19:40 the incumbent system will likely survive.

19:43 And with it, Iran’s remaining nuclear infrastructure,

19:46 military-industrial complex and armed forces, however battered, will too.

19:50 Trump can claim victory and exit the war whenever he pleases,

19:54 but as things stand, only a few will buy into it as a victory.

19:58 Because they have failed to bring the regime down.

20:01 They have failed to effectively protect their Gulf allies.

20:04 They have failed to prevent the blockade of the crucial Strait of Hormuz,

20:08 and failing to properly enforce the inviolability of trade

20:10 routes is less than ideal for a superpower.

20:13 They are also losing the aura of invincibility

20:15 at a time when the world order is crumbling.

20:18 At least, so far, as of March 21.

20:21 We will talk more about this war in the coming weeks,

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