Is This The Biggest CEO Revenge In Aviation History?!

0:00 How far could an airline CEO go in order to get back at his old airline?

0:06 Or more specifically,

0:07 could United Airlines merge with or even take over American

0:11 Airlines in order to create a single superersized American flag carrier?

0:16 Not too long ago, an idea like that would have been considered well insane.

0:22 And many still see it that way today.

0:24 But does that mean that it can't happen?

0:28 With everything else that's going on in world politics today,

0:31 would such a merger still be outrageous?

0:34 Well, to understand the background on this and how

0:37 tense things really are between United and American Airlines,

0:40 it's worth taking a look at the story that has

0:43 been brewing in Chicago's O'Hare International Airport for several months now.

0:49 You see, many big busy airports in the United States

0:52 and elsewhere have limits on what's known as slot pairs.

0:56 A slot is an airport movement, either a takeoff or a landing.

1:00 So, a slot pair is one landing and one takeoff.

1:04 Basically, a flight in and out.

1:06 Airport with really high demand allocate these slot pairs very carefully.

1:10 And depending on things like the time of day,

1:13 the amount of time that the plane will spend on the ground,

1:15 and the size and type of gate needed,

1:18 these slots can then become really valuable.

1:22 So that means that if airlines doesn't use these slots,

1:24 or a good percentage of them at least, well,

1:26 then they stand to lose them because obviously airports don't want

1:30 to lose the revenue that they would get from flights that aren't happening.

1:35 Now, Chicago O'Hare is a little bit different because it doesn't have

1:39 slot pair limits set by the FAA like other US airports do.

1:43 Instead, the city of Chicago is

1:45 allocating specific gates to individual airlines.

1:48 And then those airlines need to schedule enough flights for each one

1:51 of those gates in order to be allowed to keep using them.

1:55 With that, you might ask,

1:57 isn't that basically doing the same thing as slot allocations do,

2:00 except with some different paperwork?

2:03 Well, no, because there is one really big difference.

2:08 With this system, there are no upper limits in the scheduling of flights.

2:11 Instead, the city of Chicago only sets minimum limits on the gate usage,

2:16 at least at the moment.

2:17 Now, I know I am oversimplifying these rules a little bit,

2:20 but the point is that this unusual agreement has set

2:24 the stage for a really tense fight between American and United.

2:29 United are actually based in Chicago with plans to reach 750

2:34 departures per day for more hair during this year's busy summer season.

2:37 And if they do, well then that would be a record for the airport.

2:42 By comparison, in 2025, United averaged 521 daily departures,

2:47 although that's for the whole year, not just the summer months.

2:51 Meanwhile, American Airlines have been trying

2:53 to reassert themselves at O'Hare because they never

2:56 managed to restore their operations there after

2:58 scaling back massively during the pandemic years.

3:01 So, their goal is to reach 500

3:04 daily departures from O'Hare in the summer months, which creates a problem.

3:10 Obviously, even if there are no limits officially,

3:13 the airport layout and other conditions still means that it isn't

3:16 really possible for both of these airlines to hit those daily targets.

3:20 And of course, American and United aren't alone in operating at O'Hare.

3:26 So, the FAA has now decided to step in.

3:29 Until now, the waiting stood or would average 3,080 daily flights in the summer

3:35 of 2026 instead of the 2,680 daily flights that they averaged in 2025.

3:42 Now, O'Hare might be a monster airport,

3:44 but adding 400 flights every single day without any major

3:49 changes in infrastructure is a big ask to put it mildly.

3:54 So, in April of 2026,

3:56 the FAA therefore set a cap of 2,78 daily flights since American

4:01 and United weren't able to agree on some kind of limits on their own.

4:06 And that's where the fingerpointing began.

4:09 Even before the FAA stepped in, American was saying that United

4:12 scheduling is reckless and welcomed the intervention from the FAA.

4:18 And in response, United states that actually American

4:22 already expanded their Chicago operations massively in 2025,

4:26 which has cost United 100 million in lost revenue.

4:31 Now, it should also be said that American disputes those numbers, but even so,

4:37 United maintains that Chicago is their home base

4:41 as well as their biggest hub in the country.

4:44 And that their planned 750 daily departures in the summer are way less than

4:49 the 950 daily departures that American have

4:51 at their own home base in Dallas, Texas.

4:54 Not to mention that American also performs 650

4:58 daily summer departures at Charlotte in North Carolina.

5:02 Similarly, Delta also plans around 950 daily departures

5:06 in the summer from their home base at Atlanta.

5:09 United, American, and Delta are the big three airlines in the United States.

5:13 So, United is bullish that they shouldn't have to give

5:15 ground to the other two at their Chicago home.

5:19 Now, there is more to this story.

5:21 United generally have a less top-down network,

5:24 which is why they don't rely as much on their main hub as the others do.

5:28 But the point is that this is just

5:29 the latest spat between American Airlines and United.

5:33 And to understand why that is,

5:34 we need to take a closer look at United's CEO, Scott Kirby.

5:39 Kirby is a Texan who grew up not far from Dallas, the home of American Airlines,

5:45 which is just as well because his connection with AA goes all

5:48 the way back to 1995 when he started working with America West Airlines.

5:54 That airline was then absorbed by US Airways in 2005 and Kirby oversaw

5:59 much of that process after which he became the US Airways president in 2006.

6:05 Now 911 meant that the 2000s became a difficult time

6:09 for the airline industry in the United States with many

6:12 mergers and consolidations as a result and US Airways

6:16 themselves merged with American Airlines after lengthy negotiations in 2013.

6:21 Now Kirby apparently expected to become American CEO

6:25 after that merger but in the end he didn't.

6:29 Instead, he became America's president, which might not sound so bad except

6:34 for the fact that the person who became American CEO,

6:38 Doug Parker, also came from US Airways and America West,

6:43 and he had been less senior than Kirby at those airlines.

6:47 So, maybe you see where this is going.

6:50 Kirby then jumped ship in 2016 to become president

6:54 of United Airlines and then become the airline CEO in 2020.

6:59 And ever since that move, he has often criticized American Airlines, suggesting,

7:03 for example, that they aren't a premium carrier like United and Delta.

7:09 Now, the question of who is and isn't a premium

7:11 airline and what this really means is another discussion,

7:15 but we'll come back to that.

7:17 In any case, in midappril of 2026 came this video's main story.

7:23 In a meeting with the US president,

7:25 Scott Kirby suggested that his airline could join forces with American airlines.

7:30 And with that, aviation analysts around the world started checking

7:33 their carers to make sure that it wasn't April the 1st,

7:37 because surely this must be a joke.

7:41 According to Bloomberg, who were the first to break this story,

7:44 that meeting actually took place weeks ago on the 25th of February when

7:48 Kirby was in Washington during talks on plans to revamp the Washington Dport.

7:53 And I will explain how and why this crazy story came to be in a second.

7:58 But first, if you're watching this, chances are that you've

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9:44 Now, let's get back to the story.

9:46 Now, those of you who have been keeping an eye on the aviation

9:48 industry might remember JetBlue's failed attempt

9:51 to buy Spirit Airlines back in 2022.

9:55 Spirit originally wanted to merge with Frontier.

9:57 But JetBlue then basically elbowed Frontier out of the way with a better offer,

10:03 but that better offer also came with more

10:05 risk since JetBlue is bigger than Frontier is.

10:09 And the US Justice Department therefore intervened,

10:11 arguing that such a merger would reduce competition.

10:15 Now, at the time, some analysts argued

10:17 that even a deal between Frontier and Spirit wouldn't

10:20 go through despite Frontier being smaller than JetBlue

10:22 because of the overlap between Frontier and Spirit's networks.

10:27 But uh either way, since these failed merger attempts, Spirit has been in limbo,

10:33 entering Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection twice in 2024 and 25,

10:38 and they are actually on the verge of another

10:41 bankruptcy or even worse right now as we record this.

10:44 Uh this morning at 3:00 a.m., Spirit Airlines ceased operations.

10:50 Like I said earlier, the difficult years after 911 had brought

10:53 a lot of consolidation for the US airline industry.

10:56 But the last merger of that era was

10:58 Alaska Airlines acquisition of Virgin America back in 2016.

11:03 Since then, US administrations became much more skeptical towards

11:08 that type of consolidation and not just for complete mergers.

11:12 Even limited airline partnerships like

11:14 the Northeast Alliance that American Airlines

11:17 and JetBlue announced back in 2020 was met with a lot of resistance.

11:22 That partnership was essentially an extended code share between JetBlue

11:26 and American which also readjusted flight times out of Boston,

11:30 JFK, LaGuardia and other airports in order to allow

11:34 passengers to combine flights and routes and also rewards.

11:38 and it was then shut down and cancelled for good in 2023.

11:44 But more recently, other attempts by airlines to join

11:46 forces have actually been met with less resistance.

11:50 So, it's possible that the odyssey of Spirit

11:53 Airlines and even the difficulties of JetBlue

11:56 might have now shown regulators that actually

11:58 the industry still needs some more consolidation.

12:01 After all, this has therefore meant that, for example,

12:04 Alaska Airlines could complete the acquisition

12:07 of Hawaiian Airlines in September of 2024.

12:10 And that date is important because it means

12:13 that this process was completed under the previous US administration,

12:18 which is worth pointing out since different

12:20 administrations can feel very differently around mergers.

12:24 Still, even more recently,

12:25 Allegant bought Sun Country Airlines without any objections

12:28 from the Department of Justice and the Department

12:31 of Transport even worked with those two airlines

12:33 to help them move the process along faster.

12:36 In other words, we now have some

12:38 recent examples of airline mergers going through.

12:41 So, with that in mind,

12:42 would a merger between United and American actually be possible?

12:47 Well, no, not really.

12:50 I'm sure that wherever you are in the world,

12:52 you know that United and American Airlines are much bigger

12:55 than all of the other airlines that I've mentioned so far.

12:58 But they're not just bigger.

13:00 Airline sizes are measured in a few different ways,

13:02 depending on what you want to compare, but in two of those ways.

13:06 United and American Airlines aren't just

13:08 the biggest airlines in the United States.

13:10 They're actually the two biggest airlines in the world.

13:15 For example, they are the biggest in available seat miles,

13:18 and they're also the two biggest in terms of aircraft fleet sizes.

13:22 Put together, they would operate well over 2,000 aircraft.

13:27 And that's even before we add their regional fleets.

13:30 In some other metrics, Delta and one or two other airlines enters the top two,

13:34 but I'm sure you get the point here.

13:38 If these airlines are already the biggest two in the world,

13:41 then how on earth could anyone think that it would be a good idea to merge them?

13:46 If they were combined right now,

13:49 that new airline would control 40% of airline seats in the United States.

13:53 So, it's not just industry analysts who find this move hard to take seriously.

13:58 Pilots and other labor unions have some quite harsh thoughts about it as well.

14:04 And that also goes for various consumer groups as well as regulators

14:07 and consumer watchd dogs in Europe and other parts of the world.

14:11 And their reasons are pretty simple.

14:14 Remember those airport slots for example?

14:17 Well, many big airports worldwide might object to a single

14:20 big foreign carrier suddenly handing a large portion of their slots.

14:25 And that's before we look at other possible issues

14:28 regarding market share both within the United States and internationally.

14:33 So those are some of the downsides.

14:35 But what about the upsides then?

14:37 What advantages would there be in merging them?

14:41 Well, first of all, bear in mind here that the reason that we even know

14:44 about this discussion is that Scott Kirby brought

14:46 it up in a meeting with President Trump.

14:50 Initially, we didn't know if the two airlines

14:52 had actually discussed this seriously in the first place.

14:55 And to be very clear here, just before we started recording this video,

15:00 American Airlines publicly referred to the story for the first

15:03 time ever and tried to shut it down.

15:07 They said that they are not interested in such a murder at all

15:11 and that they have not held any talks with United about such a prospect.

15:15 Instead, American could deepen their relationship with Alaska Airlines who

15:20 they already have cold share agreements with for certain international routes.

15:25 So, is that then the end of the story?

15:29 Well, not quite.

15:32 First, let's look at what Kirby's argument about the merger actually

15:35 was and why he decided to discuss it with the US president.

15:40 He reasoned that the enormous airline

15:42 that would emerge from this merger would be

15:44 a stronger competitor in key international market

15:47 where currently the US airlines are relatively fragmented.

15:52 In the past, Kirby has also made a trade deficit argument related to this, which

15:56 is the kind of argument the current US president seems to really appreciate.

16:02 Kirby has said that 2/3s of longhaul seats

16:05 on flights to and from the United States are

16:07 on foreign airlines despite the fact that 60%

16:10 of the passengers on those routes are US citizens.

16:14 So maybe you see where all of this is going.

16:17 A combined airline would theoretically have more reach and a better market share

16:22 in international markets where other airlines

16:24 now have a much more dominant presence.

16:27 And also there's the obvious question of prestige here.

16:31 And this is where we come back to the matter

16:33 of premium airlines and what it means to be a flag carrier.

16:38 Now, me or Ben will probably do a separate video on flag carriers eventually,

16:43 but the point here is that in many parts of the world,

16:45 a flag carrier is a single airline that is seen to represent

16:49 that country both to its own people and to everyone else.

16:53 So, it could be argued that the United States haven't really had a flag carrier,

16:58 at least since the pre-eregulation days

17:00 when Panama essentially carried that rule.

17:03 So on that front, a 2,000 aircraft strong airline,

17:07 the biggest in the world using any imaginable metric,

17:10 would certainly qualify as a flag carrier.

17:14 But like I said earlier,

17:16 all that assumes that the current international network of those two

17:19 airlines would then be carried over as to this new combined carrier,

17:24 which of course wouldn't be possible.

17:27 And going back to the idea of improving market share worldwide,

17:31 if this combined airline would have

17:32 to shed airport slots at key international airports,

17:36 well then inevitably the total US airline market share would go down,

17:41 which would have the opposite effect to what Kirby was pitching.

17:45 Even in the domestic market and even though

17:47 United and American have organized their networks differently,

17:51 there would be so much overlap in routes

17:53 that a reorganization and consolidation would be inevitable.

17:58 And that would happen even if the regulators

18:01 wouldn't pressure this new airline to shed roots,

18:04 which they absolutely would assuming that they

18:06 approve the merger at all, which is doubtful.

18:12 Now, at this point, some of you are

18:13 probably just shaking your heads and asking, "Peta,

18:17 what's the point of all of this, especially if American Airlines

18:20 has publicly said that this is not going to happen?" Well,

18:24 there might actually be two reasons.

18:27 Firstly, and I know I'm really speculating here,

18:31 United could pull off this deal as a takeover,

18:34 going against United's management if they managed to convince Americans

18:38 shareholders that this would be a good idea and would work.

18:42 Just think about this.

18:44 If such a merger was somehow approved, who would it actually be good for?

18:50 Well, a clue there comes from looking at how

18:52 the markets reacted when this story first broke.

18:56 And this is actually the first sign

18:57 that the CEO's revenge argument doesn't make a lot

19:01 of sense because probably the biggest benefactor

19:05 here would be American Airlines and their shareholders.

19:09 United's own shares only rose briefly when Bloomberg broke these news

19:14 about 1 and a half% and then it quickly stabilized again.

19:18 But by contrast, American shares quickly rose 7.6% 6% and then

19:23 remained around 8% up by the end of the day.

19:26 So why was that?

19:29 Well, American are facing some financial pressures right now.

19:33 Their long-term debt is quite high at $25 billion and they are also

19:39 much smaller than United or Delta or even Southwest in terms of market value,

19:44 around $7 billion to United's 31 billion.

19:49 Now, in theory, the airlines smaller size

19:52 therefore makes it more vulnerable to crisis,

19:54 like for example, the high fuel prices

19:56 that a prolonged crisis in the Middle East can cause.

20:01 And sure enough, American stock has lost almost twice as much

20:04 in value as United has since the beginning of this year.

20:08 And while we are on the topic of the Middle East,

20:11 Scott Kirby had that discussion with Trump before the war with Iran started.

20:17 And in some more recent statements,

20:19 Kirby has suggested that the crisis and the high fuel prices

20:22 that was brought by it could

20:25 actually provide United with some purchase opportunities.

20:30 Now, when he was pushed about that and asked

20:32 specifically if that could mean buying whole airlines, he said, "We'll see.

20:37 There's a lot of rumors about that." So,

20:39 here actually comes the second reason why we're talking about this.

20:42 despite Americans rejection of the story.

20:45 You see, we can't really be sure that Kirby

20:48 meant American Airlines with that statement because in the months

20:52 leading up to this, there is another airline that could

20:55 be the candidate for a United takeover, and that's JetBlue.

21:01 Officially, United has denied this, but in the months that followed,

21:05 other statements and actions told a bit of a different story.

21:11 When asked later, Kirby said that such a merger would

21:14 be up to JetBlue without offering more details than that.

21:18 And even more recently,

21:19 United and JetBlue has entered a code share partnership called Blue Sky,

21:24 which seems to have quite a few similarities with that Northeast alliance

21:28 that JetBlue and American Airlines were forced to abandon a few years ago.

21:33 And all of this begs the question,

21:35 is it possible that Scott Kirby was just bluffing all along?

21:39 Because let's be honest here, even at a time when the United States has

21:43 a government that's very warm towards businesses and corporations affairs,

21:48 United and American Airlines joining forces either amically

21:51 or through a hostile takeover would be practically unthinkable.

21:57 To put it bluntly, if these two giants would be allowed to join forces,

22:02 then how would any other corporate merger ever be refused in any industry?

22:08 But what if Kirby is pitching a merger or takeover of American Airlines,

22:12 counting on the stories of bad blood between himself and American

22:16 Airlines when what he really wants is a merger with JetBlue.

22:21 Maybe there's a little bit of three-dimensional chess being played here.

22:25 But the thing is though that even that wouldn't be as straightforward as it

22:29 might sound because JetBlue have a lot of the same issues as American

22:34 including a sizable amount of debt which

22:37 also make them vulnerable to the current

22:39 Middle East crisis and high fuel costs as David Nieleman recently explained.

22:45 Now Neilman is the CEO of Breeze Airways and a guy

22:48 who has launched at least five airlines successfully including JetBlue.

22:52 So his take on these issues is always worth paying attention to.

22:57 United are probably eyeing JetBlue's network and their fleet,

23:00 but the current crisis means that they likely won't want to make a move

23:04 like that because it will cause them to take on a lot of debt.

23:09 Obviously, like many other industries right now,

23:11 aviation is already deeply in crisis mode.

23:14 So the actions of the likes of United, American,

23:17 and JetBlue will depend heavily on what

23:19 happens over the next few weeks and months.

23:22 But what do you think about this?

23:24 Do you think we will see other mergers soon,

23:27 either inside or outside of the United States?

23:29 And in that case, who?

23:31 Let me know in the comments here below.

23:33 And also, I hope that you've checked out my new channel, Mentors Blackbox,

23:38 where my team and I create documentaries

23:41 about accidents and incidents outside of aviation,

23:43 but in the same style as Mentor Pilot.

23:46 Here comes a quick taste.

23:49 It's the 10th of May, 1993.

23:52 Thousands of workers are moving through their shifts

23:55 at the Kader toy factory on the outskirts of Bangkok,

23:57 just like they would on every single day.

24:00 But this time, things will soon become different in a truly tragic way.

24:06 What's about to happen will eventually have international ramifications and also

24:10 highlight just how important proper building

24:13 planning and fire training really is.

24:25 The Cathery factory comprised of several

24:27 different buildings inside of a large industrial

24:30 complex located in the Sran district of the Nakun Pon Province in Thailand.

24:36 It was built as part of a wave of similar

24:38 buildings in the 1980s and '90s in order to fill

24:41 the demand for relatively cheap labor and high production

24:44 rates posed by international organizations on Thailand at the time.

24:49 The factory was therefore built to optimize for efficiency

24:52 and output rather than for great working conditions and safety.

24:56 And this in turn meant large floor plates with loads of people filling them,

25:02 minimal interruptions to workflow,

25:04 and a smooth transition from raw materials over to the finished products.

25:10 But the fire security at this site

25:12 had been questionable from the very beginning.

25:15 And the reason we know that is because the Cader Industrial Company,

25:18 who owned the factory, had actually had its license suspended back in 1989 after

25:23 another fire had destroyed its original factory on that same site.

25:28 The facility had then been rebuilt,

25:30 and the Thai authorities allowed the restarting of production in July of 1990,

25:35 less than a year after that initial blaze.

25:38 But even after that, several other smaller fires had again been reported,

25:43 of which one had actually led to substantial damages in building three,

25:47 which was still being repaired when this story took place.

25:51 After that incident, though,

25:52 Thai labor inspectors had visited the factory and issued stern warnings

25:57 to the company and had outlined the need for safety officers,

26:01 more safety equipment, and an emergency plan.

26:05 But work was still allowed to continue.

26:08 Which brings us to the 10th of May 1993.

26:14 This was by all accounts a completely normal day with workers

26:17 carrying out their duties in the various parts of the factory.

26:21 The weather was good with a relatively

26:24 strong suddenly wind and high temperatures.

26:27 Now the building we will concentrate on here

26:29 is building one of the Kader complex which

26:32 was also the largest one and connected to building two and three in an E shape.

26:37 In there the workers and their stations were distributed over four floors

26:41 with each level handling a different stage of the production or storage.

26:46 Now, according to reports, there were 1,146 workers in building 1 during

26:51 this afternoon with 36 on the first floor,

26:54 10 on the second, 500 on the third, and 600 on the fourth.

27:00 This meant that the majority of people were concentrated on the upper floors,

27:03 which is important to remember.

27:06 Now, the building itself was constructed using a steel frame,

27:09 which was then supporting the massive concrete floor slabs.

27:13 It also had internal stairwells

27:15 and freight elevators connecting the different levels

27:18 just like thousands of other similar buildings from all around the world.

27:21 So for the workers on the site,

27:23 it wouldn't have felt unsafe or dangerous in any way.

27:27 But this is actually going to be a theme in this video.

27:30 Just because something looks and feels safe,

27:33 it doesn't mean that it actually is.

27:35 And to understand why, we have to look at several different

27:38 theories around industrial design than fire protection.

27:45 You see, all buildings out there really only have one job in the case of a fire,

27:50 and that is to buy time for the people inside.

27:53 But that can be done in many different ways.

27:57 Now, most people think that time is only needed for people to get out.

28:01 And while that is true,

28:03 what's really important to understand here is just how that time is used.

28:08 And the details matter here because how things are done will affect

28:12 how a building needs to be constructed in order to maximize that time.

28:17 For example, if a fire were to break out,

28:20 all of the people inside will need time for the following things.

28:25 Detection, which is actually finding out that there is a fire.

28:29 Decision making, that's when everyone decides if and how they

28:34 need to act on the warning that they have received.

28:36 And after that comes movement, which kind of speaks for itself.

28:40 You need to actually move to get out of the building.

28:44 But that comes with its own specific challenges that I will soon get to.

28:48 But then most important of all,

28:50 the building needs to facilitate the survival of the people who are inside

28:54 for at least as long as it takes for them to get out.

28:59 Now, on the face of it,

29:00 all of those things might sound obvious, but if you think about it,

29:04 each of those points contain quite large

29:06 potential challenges who all needs to be

29:09 handled correctly one by one in order for a building to be safe.

29:14 If only one of those steps actually fails,

29:16 well, then the other ones quickly becomes useless.

29:21 I hope you like that.

29:23 My name is Peter Hornfeld and you're watching Mentor Now.

29:26 Have an absolutely fantastic day and I'll see you next time.

29:29 Bye-bye.