NFL Trends Deep Dive with Next Gen Stats Research Analyst James Reber

0:10 Hey everybody, it's Tuesday, March 19th, 2026.

0:14 Welcome to the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast,

0:16 where we're happy to help in pass protection.

0:18 It's me, your Randy MG, Marcus Gr, joined by Michael F.

0:20 Florio and Laquan Jones.

0:21 Happy start of the tournament, guys.

0:23 I know it's not fantasy football,

0:24 but happy March Madness to those who who observe.

0:29 I enjoy it.

0:30 I I won't act like I've watched a lot of college basketball this year.

0:34 I used to be huge into college basketball, but it doesn't matter, right?

0:38 Like I I I don't need to know any of the players

0:41 on the TV for me to enjoy today and tomorrow.

0:43 Like, do not care.

0:46 Great time.

0:46 Uh, I would say the next two weekends,

0:49 this weekend and next weekend are maybe two of the greatest weekends

0:52 in sports just because there's wall to-all basketball on from like 9:00 a.m.

0:57 Pacific time until you know, late in the evening.

1:00 And uh, you know, I feel bad for the poor

1:02 folks who get their prices right preempted or like,

1:05 you know, I know my you know,

1:06 my grandmother didn't particularly care for her because

1:08 her soap operas got pushed uh because of basketball,

1:11 but for the rest of us, for the rest of us, it is a great time.

1:14 an absolutely great.

1:16 We are supposed to to watch together this weekend.

1:18 I don't know if you guys are are still coming through, but we're supposed to

1:22 Oh, I'm pulling up.

1:23 I'm pulling up.

1:24 Working on it for sure.

1:25 Yeah, for sure.

1:26 So, that'll be fun.

1:28 It'll be fun.

1:29 It's going to be a good time.

1:30 Be a good time.

1:31 So, uh, today on the show going to have a kind of a different time.

1:34 Should be a good time nonetheless.

1:36 We're going to talk to James Reber who does

1:38 research for the NextGen Stats team here at the NFL.

1:40 wrote a couple of articles that maybe on the surface

1:44 you wouldn't think about as fantasy related articles,

1:46 but we are trying to find a fantasy spin.

1:49 He talked about the increase in chip blocks across NFL offenses.

1:54 Also talked about the rise of split safeties, two high coverages across the NFL.

1:59 Uh, and so we're going to kind of pick

2:00 his brain a little bit on how those things could help

2:03 you when you are sort of picking between players

2:06 and putting together your fantasy draft lists and what have you.

2:09 But do want to start with a little bit of news and I

2:12 I emphasize a little bit because there's not a lot happening in the NFL.

2:16 But uh a story that popped up uh

2:19 that uh Laquan you texted us about uh yesterday.

2:23 Fourtime Pro Bowl wide receiver Ty Hilton has announced

2:26 his retirement uh which I'm sure comes as news

2:29 to a lot of people because we haven't seen Ty Hilton in the NFL in a few years.

2:34 The last time he played was back in 2022

2:38 when he appeared in three games with the Dallas Cowboys.

2:42 Wow.

2:42 Either way, Eugene Marque Hilton is officially wrapping it up,

2:48 calling it a career.

2:49 Why you put my man government out there like that?

2:51 I mean, you know, I bet, you know, I don't know what his mom calls him.

2:55 I don't know if she calls him Eugene or T.

2:57 She calls him Eugene probably when he's in trouble.

2:59 Probably just calls him T the rest of the time.

3:01 Um, so I will I will ask the question that I always ask in these situations.

3:06 Florio, I will start with you and Laquan, you could follow.

3:08 Is T Y Hilton a fantasy hall of famer?

3:13 I'm more so wondering where he got this Ty name from because the only

3:17 T in his entire government name is in Hilton and there's no Y.

3:21 So like where did this come from?

3:24 I have no idea.

3:25 I have questions.

3:26 Um, no, he's not a fantasy hall of famer.

3:29 He's a uh he he's a hall of very good I would say like I

3:34 I think when we talk about the 2010s and like the top wide receivers he's

3:39 not going to be the first name or one of the first names that get

3:41 thrown out but he'll he will get thrown out there right like he was really good

3:46 for for a big stretch and in fact if you outside of his rookie year

3:52 where he put up 861 yards every other season that he got to play with Andrew

3:57 Luck he topped 1,000 yards and most of them he topped 1,200 cuz there's the one

4:02 year in 2017 where he failed to get 1,000 but Andrew Luck didn't play that year.

4:07 So I think you could point for two reasons why he's not a fantasy hall of famer.

4:11 One was it the age cliff cuz he happened to be

4:14 turning 30 when Andrew Luck just surprised everyone and retired.

4:18 But once Luck retired, it was kind of a wrap for Hilton.

4:21 And it's not his fault, but like it was early career Jacobe Brassette

4:25 and Philip Rivers and uh Carson W like

4:28 right like the quarterbacks they were throwing out

4:29 there were they left a lot to be desired.

4:32 So uh yeah, I I think that really does hamper his career numbers a bit.

4:38 Also, he was a player that once that cliff came, it came very fast.

4:41 But there was a six, sevenyear stretch where he was a top two

4:45 round pick in fantasy and was just electric.

4:48 So, Hall of Very good in my opinion.

4:51 All right.

4:52 Uh, Laquin, you agree with that?

4:54 I second that.

4:56 The Hall of Very good is filled right now with a bunch of players,

4:58 but like I feel like if Andrew Luck didn't retire,

5:03 like he could have been in that Hall of Fame fantasy, you know, room.

5:06 But cuz at the end of the day, those two seasons he had that were magnificent.

5:10 1,400 yards.

5:11 I mean, he didn't really find the end zone much,

5:14 but the ceiling was going to keep rising if Andrew Lux stayed.

5:18 And honestly, the surprise, you know, retirement,

5:21 I think that's what kind of knocked him off

5:23 his track to have that ceiling to keep, you know, rising.

5:26 So, the Hall of Very good is filled right now.

5:28 And that's not a bad thing,

5:30 but we got some Hall of Famers in there that I can't

5:32 honestly see Ty Hilton sitting next to any of those guys really.

5:37 For real.

5:37 For real.

5:38 Yeah.

5:38 No, I I think I think you guys are right cuz it is it you remember the highs,

5:43 but and so you go back and look,

5:45 you realize that those that peak was a really short period of time.

5:48 He was a top five fantasy wide receiver that year.

5:51 He put up 1400 yards and that's with little touchdowns.

5:54 So all that production was through yards and catches and stuff.

5:57 But again, the cliff, it came very fast.

5:59 It was like wild coyote just standing in midair

6:03 and all of a sudden just falls down.

6:06 By the way, to answer your question, Florio, uh he says

6:11 that even though his name is Eugene, his my daddy's name is Tyrone.

6:14 So, ever since I was little,

6:16 everyone has just used the first two letters of that.

6:19 And that is how he became Ty Hilton.

6:22 So, there it is.

6:22 So, then instead of being Ty, he made it Ty.

6:25 Ty.

6:26 Okay.

6:27 Okay.

6:29 He does have a son.

6:31 He does have a son named Ty.

6:33 So, you know, I guess it's coming from Tai.

6:38 Yeah.

6:38 Uh, he has two sons, Eugene Hilton Jr.

6:42 and Ty Hilton.

6:43 So, he sort of combined all of those things.

6:46 Uh,

6:47 but again, he named him Ty, not Ty.

6:51 Like, it it's a long I I don't know.

6:54 But one fun fact about him real quick is every year for his first seven seasons

6:59 he had a catch of 60 plus yard over 60 yards every year.

7:03 And to me that is always what I'll remember with Ty Hilton.

7:07 He was one of the very best field stretchers of his era.

7:10 He had deficiencies like we said the red zone not really a high

7:13 touchdown guy but one of the just the very best field stretchers.

7:17 Well that and that he used to absolutely torture the Houston Texans.

7:22 That was just a thing he did.

7:24 Uh 11 touchdown catches against the Texans in his career.

7:29 Uh he didn't have more than six against any other team.

7:33 So he just absolutely just destroyed the Texans when

7:36 I remember him too throwing Seph Rollins

7:38 over the barricade at a Bears game also.

7:41 So that that was pretty awesome to see as well.

7:43 That's pretty random.

7:44 That's super random.

7:45 Uh other piece of news,

7:47 Carson Wentz is returning to the Minnesota Vikings on a one-year deal.

7:51 So, Laquan, does that mean that nine

7:53 has officially been 86th from the Vikings offense?

7:59 Stop calling this man nine.

8:01 Stop.

8:01 There's only one nine.

8:03 Yes, it's 86.

8:05 Get him out.

8:06 But he doesn't call He doesn't call himself nine.

8:08 Matthew Stafford doesn't call himself nine.

8:10 Calls himself nine.

8:11 Yes, we do.

8:12 I I can't say what we I I can't say here what we call him,

8:17 but the Rams community have a name for nine and it's not JJ McCarthy.

8:22 And honestly,

8:23 it's obviously not It's obviously not nine either if you can't say it here.

8:29 Hey, it is.

8:30 It's a rand.

8:31 It's not nine.

8:32 I think if you pulled football fans who is nine,

8:37 you're going to get more JJ McCarthy votes than than Matthew Stafford.

8:40 You just are like it's just it's just what's

8:42 out there in the in the zeitgeist now, man.

8:44 Just live with it.

8:45 Didn't we have this conversation here

8:46 that these guys need to earn the cool nickname?

8:49 Like how I stopped calling Trevor Midn now he is T Law.

8:54 People don't call JJ McCarthy.

8:56 They think it's cool.

8:57 They call him N sort of mock him a little bit.

8:59 Like it's just like the needle him because he thinks he's nine.

9:02 Yeah.

9:03 Don't use it as a troll.

9:04 When I think of nine, it is Matthew Stafford.

9:07 Anyway, answer the question.

9:08 Is he done?

9:08 Is he done?

9:09 Anyway, he is it is cooked.

9:11 Well done in the crockpot.

9:13 This has been a slow cooking, but he is done.

9:15 Looking at Carson Wentz back in there backing up Kyler Murray.

9:19 He now falls to QB3.

9:20 I could sense probably a trade is coming.

9:23 Or maybe he just sits behind two veteran quarterbacks

9:26 and learn and absorb as much as he can.

9:28 But at the end of the day, I don't think we see JJ McCarthy hit

9:31 the field unless both of these guys get injured.

9:33 But again, I I feel like we need to stop giving cool nicknames to guys,

9:38 even though you're trolling.

9:40 Stop giving nicknames to people who haven't earned these things, man.

9:43 Please.

9:43 Yeah, we didn't give it to him.

9:44 He gave it to himself.

9:45 That's why he's getting trolled by it.

9:47 Like, he gave it to himself and now we're using it and using

9:51 it back at throwing it back at him as a way to troll.

9:54 Like, stop.

9:55 It's not a shot at your Pro Football.

9:57 Everything is an attack on the Rams, man.

9:59 Like, you got to get out of your field.

10:01 It's a shot or attack.

10:02 It's just we need to stop doing this.

10:06 No.

10:06 If if you go to Pro Football Reference,

10:07 which legitimately if someone on the street one time called a person a nickname,

10:13 it appears on their page.

10:15 Uh JJ McCarthy's nickname is nine.

10:17 Matthew Stafford does not have a nickname.

10:20 Well, does that mean that somebody

10:21 on the street once called Tom Brady the pharaoh?

10:23 Cuz that's someone had to.

10:25 It's on there, right?

10:26 Like the prince who was promised Trevor Lawrence.

10:31 play.

10:31 Who who said that?

10:32 Yeah, I don't know.

10:33 That's uh that's a certain Fox Sports

10:35 analyst who uh actually gave him that nickname.

10:38 Kyle Brandt said that.

10:40 He's actually the one who created that actually.

10:42 I've texted him about it.

10:43 He was Yeah.

10:44 The prince.

10:45 I I've heard uh another analyst call him that for a while now as well.

10:50 Sure.

10:50 Um who does work in our building?

10:53 Well, uh again, that's a thing that you know,

10:55 instead of calling him Trevor Mid Lawrence,

10:56 you can call him the prince who was promised.

10:58 If he starts playing back, you can just use that.

11:00 He's right back at it.

11:01 So, there it is.

11:02 Uh, all right.

11:03 Very happy to be joined by a special guest doing something that, you know,

11:06 we don't necessarily get too much into sort of the I

11:10 guess off thebeaten path version of the NextG stats.

11:13 And, uh, to help us with that, James Reber,

11:16 a researcher for NGS here at the NFL,

11:18 and wrote an article recently about chip blocks.

11:22 Not that they're a new thing across the NFL,

11:25 but they're starting to be deployed more often and in a more

11:28 strategic way to sort of help offenses passing game.

11:31 So, we're glad to get James in here to sort of talk about the article he wrote

11:34 and try to put a fantasy context to it

11:36 cuz we're all looking for whatever edge we can find.

11:39 So, James, appreciate you taking the time, man.

11:40 How you feeling today?

11:42 Hey, I'm doing well, man.

11:43 Thank you so much for having me on.

11:44 Uh, really excited to be here.

11:46 Uh, I'm glad that you've all, you know,

11:48 looked through my work, uh, and you had, you know,

11:51 the good sense to figure out that this was

11:55 relevant and we could get something out of it.

11:58 Uh, I didn't even really expect that, uh,

12:00 tight ends would be doing so much extra work off of their blocks.

12:05 And that's something that I found just, you know,

12:09 working through the research for this and then even working

12:11 with Ki the last few weeks that this is a massive trend,

12:16 something that is going under the radar, but can really help us out.

12:21 Yeah.

12:21 And like you said, we had we didn't have the good sense.

12:24 Kyrie had the good sense to find the article,

12:26 to bring it to our attention, uh, and help organize this whole thing.

12:30 So, we're we're just the dopes who get to sit

12:31 on on camera on the microphone and talk about it.

12:34 Right.

12:34 Uh just for the for the base level, right, for the entry level folks,

12:38 explain what chip blocks are and and how they benefit an offense.

12:43 No doubt.

12:43 Let's do it.

12:44 So chip blocks are a trend that has come about.

12:49 Uh it like you were saying Marcus,

12:51 it's something that has been going

12:52 on throughout the entire history of the league,

12:54 just uh happening a lot more recently where a skilled position player,

12:59 usually a tight end, occasionally a running back or a wide receiver,

13:03 will give a little bit of extra blocking help,

13:06 will engage a pass rusher quickly and then kind

13:10 of roll off that and go out into a route.

13:12 And so it kind of lets the offense have their cake and eat

13:16 it too where you're getting an extra guy in your pass protection.

13:20 Uh you know, a lot of teams like spread offenses at this point in time.

13:24 And so if you have a fiveman protection,

13:26 you can turn that into kind of five and a half.

13:29 Uh and so that has given quarterbacks extra time to throw.

13:36 Uh we've actually seen that since NextG started tracking chip

13:40 blocks uh which was 7 seasons ago uh the time

13:45 to pressure is about 6/10 of a second longer uh

13:49 3.4 seconds versus 2.8 when a chip block is used.

13:53 And I mean 6/10 is not a huge amount of time in the grand

13:58 scheme of things but for a quarterback it can mean absolutely everything.

14:02 It allows them to go through their progressions,

14:04 get their deep ball off, avoid the sack.

14:07 Uh, so, you know, the the best offensive innovators out there, uh, you know,

14:13 we talk about the the Rams and Niners a lot on this show and they

14:17 heavily feature chip locks in their offense

14:20 and it's kind of picking up leaguewide as well.

14:23 So, in the article, you talk about how these quarterbacks,

14:26 like you just said, they get extra time.

14:27 We've seen their air yards go up,

14:29 more more opportunity to take the deep ball, the deep shot, stuff like that.

14:33 But what surprised me was the teams that chipped

14:36 at a higher rate don't always put up better offensive numbers.

14:40 In fact, in some cases, you point out it's the opposite and and they struggle.

14:45 So, what what did you find when you were

14:47 looking at that cuz that was surprising to me.

14:50 Yeah.

14:50 So, I'm not going to go out and tell you that uh,

14:54 you know, chip blocks are exclusively an advantage creator.

14:59 Sometimes it's more the case that a team is forced

15:02 to do it because their pass protection isn't really holding up.

15:05 Uh, the Vikings and Browns were two teams that come to mind

15:09 that had a little bit of a weaker offensive line this season.

15:13 They had a lot of, you know, injuries and turnover on their fronts.

15:17 Uh they also had, you know,

15:20 young quarterbacks who weren't quite as good as evading

15:23 pressure on their own and so they had to get extra guys in the protection uh

15:30 just in order to kind of stay above water.

15:33 So you will see that sometimes and I'm not going to tell you, you know,

15:36 we get these offenses that are shipping more,

15:38 you want to draft everyone from those offenses.

15:40 That's not really the case.

15:42 Uh, but we're gonna, you know,

15:43 go into how we can make it helpful for fantasy on a case- by case basis.

15:48 So, you talk about how this has been

15:50 something that's been tracked for several years now,

15:52 but it seems to be trending upward from 21%

15:55 in 2023 to nearly 27% this past season.

15:59 I mean, what's driving this usage upward?

16:02 And is there a ceiling or do you think this keeps climbing?

16:07 So, there's actually a lot of different contributors to this.

16:10 Um, I do think there is eventually a ceiling,

16:14 but I don't think we're at it or even super close to it yet.

16:18 Uh, as so, so we discussed that uh,

16:22 the Shawn McVey, Kyle Hannah, Kyle Shanahan, and their proteges,

16:27 the Kevin Oonnell's, the Liam Cohens, uh, the Clint Kubios,

16:31 these are the guys who were leading this charge.

16:33 And what happens with guys like that is when they start doing something,

16:38 the rest of the league kind of takes it over over time.

16:41 What we saw 5 or 10 years ago was everyone started using motion.

16:45 And uh you know, everyone had always used motion,

16:48 but started doing it much more often,

16:50 especially starting with that coaching tree.

16:52 And now that's kind of reached an equilibrium.

16:57 Everyone's doing it all over the league whether you're part of that tree or not.

17:01 And so as those other coaches pick the chip block up, it'll keep increasing.

17:07 And uh I think, you know, it's going to be really interesting to monitor

17:11 where it goes in the next few years.

17:12 I know some of the data showed kind of a split amongst tight ends.

17:15 You kind of talked about it a little bit, but guys like Trey McBride,

17:18 Kyle Pittz, uh they sort of thrived when working with Chip Blocks.

17:23 Guys like Travis Kelce, George KD, Mark Andrews saw their numbers dip.

17:27 I mean, the first thing that comes to mind is maybe I don't know if it's age.

17:30 Is it offense?

17:31 Have you have you been able to pinpoint kind

17:32 of why that is or is it still a mystery?

17:35 Uh I think both of those are contributors.

17:37 Yeah.

17:38 I think in the case of I mean there were

17:41 three guys I found who were not really like thriving

17:44 on it using it as much of an advantage as some

17:46 of the other tight ends and those were Travis Kelce, George KD, Mark Andrews.

17:51 In the case of those guys, you know,

17:53 they've been in the league for a long time and they probably didn't come up

17:57 with the concept in mind that this was going to be part of their repertoire.

18:03 Um, so KD KD is a little bit of a a special case and I think

18:09 it's just because KD loves blocking compared

18:11 to most other passcatching tight ends in the league.

18:14 So, he's going to set a really good block and then not uh,

18:17 you know, go as smoothly necessarily into the route.

18:21 Uh, in KD's case, he just didn't get quite

18:26 as many targets as the other guys is what it was.

18:28 Kelsey was not running quite as sharp of a route in those cases

18:34 and wasn't catching as many passes when he did get targeted.

18:38 And then with some of the younger guys.

18:40 So the the interesting I one I guess is is Hunter Henry because Hunter Henry,

18:45 if you saw on that graphic, he actually had a 100% catch rate off of his chips.

18:48 He caught every single one of his 21 targets after a chip block.

18:51 And he's a veteran guy, too.

18:53 So I think that's a schematic thing.

18:54 I think uh he was just given a blueprint by Josh McDaniels, you know,

19:01 new offensive coordinator the past year and uh he was able to adjust

19:06 to that really quickly and uh you

19:09 know improve his performance in those situations.

19:12 Only a 59.1% catch rate when he's not chipping, 100 when he is.

19:16 That's something that I think you're going to see

19:18 a lot in their offense next year with uh

19:22 you know if if they're recognizing that his success

19:26 is coming from that which I'm sure they are.

19:29 And to take this and spin it kind of specifically into uh

19:34 like a specific player for fantasy aspects on that graphic there.

19:37 We saw AJ Bardner chipped at the highest rate last

19:41 year and he had the second highest target rate when chipping.

19:45 Well, now Clint Kubak,

19:46 who designed that offense and was using AJ Barner in that way,

19:50 he gets to design an offense with Brock Bowers.

19:53 Yeah.

19:53 So, do you think we see Brock Bowowers chipping at a high rate?

19:58 And if so, do you think there is still another level that Brock Bowers,

20:02 cuz we know he's elite, he's the second tight end in ADP,

20:06 all of that, but do you think there's even

20:07 more there that we haven't seen yet with Brock Bowers?

20:10 Yeah, I I love that you went there and I

20:13 honestly really do think that he could reach a new level.

20:16 Uh so first off, unrelated to chip blocks,

20:20 we saw Kubak focus a lot on one guy in the passing game.

20:24 And if anyone is going to get, you know,

20:26 anywhere near JSN type of volume, it would be Brock Powers in that offense.

20:30 So that's pretty cool in itself.

20:31 Brock Bowers set 24 chip blocks all of last season,

20:35 which among like starting tight ends.

20:38 That was probably the single lowest mark in the league.

20:42 Uh 6.2% rate, that's just tiny.

20:45 He caught every single one of his passes off of a chip.

20:48 Uh seven of seven for 73 yards.

20:51 Uh and so I think a lot of the reason for that is

20:53 that Chip Kelly was mostly using him as an outside receiver, a slot receiver.

20:58 Glen Kubak loves to put his guys in line with the line of scrimmage

21:03 and so that's going to give him an easy opportunity to chip a lot more

21:08 and then you know he can run a flat route a fade route and be

21:12 you know the first read for if we're going to guess probably for Nina Mendoza.

21:17 So I think it should go great for him as in terms of his fantasy context.

21:21 Go ahead.

21:22 So I want to talk about an underrated Rams tight end.

21:25 I want to take you to LA.

21:26 Kobe Parkinson had seven targets on 14 red zone chips,

21:31 which is really interesting being that the Rams

21:33 have the best wide receiver room in the NFL.

21:36 But how much of the red zone chip usage translates to touchdown opportunity?

21:40 And is Parkinson somebody fantasy managers should be watching out for?

21:46 Uh yeah, I think there's a a really good possibility of that.

21:49 The the one way that we would throw that out

21:52 is if Kenyan Sadi gets drafted by the Rams.

21:54 Uh but right now they boy no we don't want that.

21:58 It would uh well I mean Sadi is going to be

22:00 great wherever he goes but uh I I do think you

22:03 know the room that the Rams have right now as far

22:05 as tight ends is one of the strongest in the league.

22:07 They would often put three of them out on the field at the same time.

22:10 That's something again that not a lot of people are doing.

22:13 And so you know Parkinson had these certain specific weeks

22:18 where he was really popping off in the fantasy sense.

22:21 and it's because he was really trustworthy as a red zone

22:25 guy and that was kind of their plan to get him loose.

22:28 We see it with Parkinson and the other guy we really see it

22:32 with is Jake Ferguson where they would set the chip in the red zone.

22:37 They would kind of lose their coverage defender

22:40 as a result of that and they, you know,

22:42 these are big body targets who are a great

22:47 outlet for their quarterbacks to hit in that spot.

22:50 So yeah, I think um Parkinson and then the other guy worth considering,

22:54 you know, for a year two breakout would be Terrence Ferguson,

22:56 but he's not really the chip block type and he's

22:59 not really the same caliber or red zone weapon.

23:02 So we really could uh be in a spot to watch out for Parkinson, you know,

23:06 kind of taking over some of the the Tyler

23:08 Higgby workload and uh keeping these good vibes going.

23:13 Uh you mentioned that a lot of times the coaches

23:16 that used it were were teams that didn't have maybe great uh

23:19 great upfront protection for their quarterbacks

23:21 or teams with younger quarterbacks

23:24 or guys who just needed extra time to get the ball out.

23:26 It brings me to Kevin Stfansky coming to Atlanta which is

23:29 sort of a mixed bag of things because you know in terms

23:32 of their rating the the offensive line was a pretty good pass

23:35 blocking unit for the Falcons but now you're dealing with a quarterback

23:39 most likely into a tongue of Aloa who you know sort

23:42 of has been kind of a get the ball out of his hands

23:44 quickly maybe try to give him some extra time especially to to give

23:48 you know to protect him maybe from himself in some cases.

23:51 I where where do you anticipate the Falcons sort of landing here?

23:55 Does the fans do he go more with the chip?

23:57 Does he does he do less with it?

23:58 Because we already know Kyle Pitts sort of thrived in that situation.

24:01 And every year we keep pretzling our logic to try and make Kyle Pitts a thing.

24:06 Um I guess I guess I'm asking you to give me

24:08 one more reason to to not give up on Kyle Pitts.

24:13 Um so I if you want me to, you know, kind of gas up Kyle Pitts,

24:20 I think I would not use chip locks to do that.

24:25 Um I you know Kyle Pittz is a is a total like move tight end.

24:30 He's he's going to be in the slot a lot of the time

24:32 and uh so with Tua you know throwing the ball quickly.

24:37 Uh I think it's very possible that Stfansky changes up

24:41 his strategy especially you know he's handing off play calling.

24:44 He's given it to I don't remember the guy's name.

24:46 I think it's Tommy Reese or something like that.

24:49 Uh but Tommy Reese.

24:50 Yeah.

24:51 Nice.

24:51 Uh, so it's the guy who was his OC last year,

24:55 but is actually now going to be the play caller in Atlanta.

24:57 And so, so for Pitts, I mean, I think we could see those guys use

25:03 him the same way that they used Harold Fannon,

25:04 which was really exciting, but that's going to be in a move situation.

25:08 It's going to be kind of more outside.

25:10 Uh, and then if they also have a blocking tight end on the field,

25:13 that guy could potentially be the chip or probably wouldn't get the targets.

25:17 But uh it also means you know there will

25:21 be not as many uh guys taking the target share

25:25 in that case it'll be you know basically London pits

25:29 bejon and they're getting the entire bulk of the workload.

25:34 So I mean if you need if you need faith in pits it would be more of a a target

25:38 share and also uh just the fact that they they

25:42 love heavy personnel in that you know former Cleveland coaching room.

25:47 Got it.

25:48 All right.

25:48 Good enough for me.

25:49 Want to kind of pivot to talking about defenses because, you know,

25:54 you wrote that defenses that got chipped more in a lot of cases got more sacks,

25:59 forced more turnovers.

26:01 You and I were talking before the show that somehow

26:03 Miles Garrett actually got better when he was chipped.

26:07 Um, have you been able to figure out the logic for that so far?

26:10 Yeah, absolutely.

26:11 So, I I was confused by that at first.

26:14 It seems counterintuitive,

26:16 but you know what's really happening is uh when you have

26:19 an incredible pass rusher like Miles Garrett, uh like you know,

26:24 Houston has with Denil Anderson and Will Hunter

26:26 on or uh Denil Hunter and Will Anderson on both sides,

26:30 uh like Pittsburgh has with TJ Watt.

26:32 All five of these teams that you're going to see in the top five of uh

26:36 chiplock rate are going to have incredible pass

26:40 rushers and those guys are going to get theirs.

26:43 Offenses are kind of, you know,

26:46 scrambling to really help out on these guys a little

26:50 bit extra just so they don't get completely gamebroken.

26:54 And so they're going to end up getting a lot of sacks as it is.

26:59 Uh Miles Garrett, really do want to focus

27:01 on him for a second because as everyone knows,

27:04 he's a freak of nature, but uh somehow he is even better against chip blocks.

27:10 Uh that one, don't know if I found a specific explanation.

27:15 Uh he just, you know, plays like he's possessed.

27:17 He goes full god mode uh when, you know,

27:21 someone disrespects him by throwing extra help or I guess respects him really.

27:24 But uh yeah, so he he got 29 pressures against chip blocks this season.

27:29 That's 10 more than anyone ever had in another uh season that we've tracked.

27:34 And he's in second place, too.

27:37 He had 19 in a different season.

27:39 So, uh yeah, definitely just an incredible thing that we're seeing out of him.

27:43 Specifically, Browns were a solid fantasy defense this year.

27:46 I figure they're going to continue to be a very solid option.

27:52 and to try to take this information and spin it into a a fantasy sense.

27:57 In your opinion, like you've done more studying on this than any of us have,

28:02 do you like if you were targeting a defense for fantasy purposes,

28:06 are you thinking that having an elite pass rusher is top?

28:10 Is it a team that creates a lot of pressure as a whole?

28:13 Are you targeting a weak offensive line?

28:16 Like I'm sure it's probably a combination of the three,

28:19 but what do you think the most important

28:21 ingredients is when looking to to stream a defense?

28:24 Yeah, I can go into all of that a little bit.

28:25 And I mean, you guys are the authorities when it comes

28:29 to do you pick one early or do you decide to stream?

28:32 So that's, you know, up to the player themselves.

28:35 That's everyone's choice.

28:36 But if you do decide to pick early,

28:38 I love a defense with a good pass rusher or ideally with two.

28:42 I would love to pick the Texans as my fantasy defense because, you know,

28:47 you're going to be lining up those two

28:48 guys on the edge uh pretty much every play

28:51 and that is going to make life really hard

28:54 on everybody on the other side of the ball.

28:57 Like, you know, that's what creates sacks obviously,

29:00 but it's also what creates interceptions.

29:03 Like, you know, when you when you get pressure,

29:05 that's where a lot of the turnovers are coming from.

29:08 And so, yeah, I think you definitely definitely want

29:11 to look for an elite pass rusher from a fantasy

29:14 fantasy perspective a little more than you would like

29:17 an elite linebacker or elite corner or something like that.

29:21 Uh, and then, you know, as far as streaming, yeah, if you have,

29:27 let's say, Hutchinson against the Vikings,

29:31 that's a great time to stream the Lions.

29:33 They were a little bit more streaming tier last year.

29:36 I think they could bounce back because there is a lot of talent just across

29:40 that entire room if they if they stay

29:42 healthy like the Lions are a great defensive option.

29:45 Uh but if they're facing an offense that is going

29:50 to be forced to chip or forced to provide extra help,

29:54 then that offense could have a really rough day.

29:58 So, James, even though I'm trying to vote out defenses out

30:01 of my fantasy leagues amongst my friends that just keep voting for it,

30:05 but uh is there a defense that might be poised for a breakout

30:08 in 2026 based on how often their edge rushers are being chipped in 2025?

30:14 Yeah.

30:14 Yeah, I I did find a few different options for that.

30:19 Uh the one that kind of stood out, this was a little bit surprising,

30:22 it's not one that a lot of people would think about, was the Indianapolis Colts.

30:26 Uh so they have young edge rushers led by Leatu Latu.

30:31 Uh he faced almost as many chips as Jared Verse and that was you

30:38 know the second most by any player that was a first or second year player.

30:43 So he's getting chipped a lot.

30:44 People respect him and we see you know year three breakouts for a lot

30:50 of these guys as they get accustomed to how to pass rush.

30:55 And then another thing is the Colts have a defensive

30:58 coordinator that first of all is regarded as a really,

31:02 you know, special coach, Louis Anarumo,

31:04 and then also in his second year implementing the system.

31:08 Uh could really get a little more like

31:13 creative with his pass rush and uh you know,

31:16 start stunning guys a little bit more or start dropping guys into coverage,

31:21 you know, disguising his blitzes.

31:23 So yeah, between all of that and the fact that Lu

31:28 could be in line for a breakout based on his chip rate.

31:31 Uh that's one I would look at like a little more than we have in previous years.

31:37 Uh so sort of along with that, right,

31:40 with the you know chip blocks and pressure and all that sort of thing,

31:44 one of the big changes we've seen in recent years

31:46 in defenses has been the increased use of two high safeties.

31:50 Right?

31:50 This was supposedly the thing that helped

31:52 everybody figure out the Kansas City Chiefs.

31:55 We can debate that at another time,

31:57 but you know, for people who maybe are uninitiated,

32:00 explain sort of what that is and and you know,

32:02 how we've seen this change into teams doing that a little more defensively.

32:07 Yep.

32:07 The concept of two high coverage, uh,

32:10 it's it's three different types of coverage.

32:13 It's cover two, cover four, cover six.

32:15 And it basically just means that both of your safeties

32:19 are starting a little closer to the rest of your defense.

32:23 And then they are both dropping back in opposite directions into coverage.

32:29 Uh and so this is very very truly a leaguewide trend.

32:36 It's happening everywhere.

32:38 Uh we see on this image right here that everyone uh in the NFL,

32:44 every single defense played split safety coverage

32:48 at least 30% of the time this season.

32:50 Too high and split safety mean the same thing by the way.

32:52 Exact same.

32:53 And so uh that is pretty cool because it had not been happening before.

32:59 We had, you know, 2018 to 2020, there were eight or so defenses a season

33:05 who would be under that 30% mark and then

33:08 it just started moving up and up and up

33:10 and now everyone has caught on to this thing.

33:13 So offenses are seeing it all the time

33:17 and some of the best defenses out there are really,

33:22 you know, making this an efficient strategy.

33:25 Uh the Seahawks were a team that did it very frequently this year.

33:28 They used a lot of uh cover six which didn't used to be

33:31 a popular thing in the past but it drove them to a Super Bowl.

33:35 Chiefs were the pioneers like you said and uh you know that worked really well

33:38 for them for a little while and then uh you know people did catch on.

33:43 You start seeing it more.

33:44 You uh develop a little bit of a counter

33:49 and again just trying to put a a fantasy spin on all you were touching

33:52 on the Colts and Lu Anoramo and I kind

33:53 of credit him with being the mastermind behind this.

33:56 uh he did it two years in a row to to Josh Mahomes in the playoffs,

34:00 shut those guys down and then I feel like the rest of the league uh copied him.

34:04 But how does this apply?

34:07 How can we apply this into a fantasy sense, right?

34:10 Like is it less big plays,

34:12 more like slot and possession receivers now are going to get targets?

34:16 Like h how can we take this and kind of apply it to what we do?

34:21 Yeah.

34:21 So, I mean, what I would do is I would look

34:25 at the specific offensive players who

34:28 have already performed the best against this.

34:31 And uh we found some really cool stuff off of that.

34:36 Uh so, first off, JSN was just way above

34:44 everybody else in terms of the production against Too High.

34:48 uh he ended up with uh 841 receiving yards against

34:52 too high last season and uh nobody else had 700.

34:56 So he was nearly 200 yards out in front of the rest of the field.

35:00 Uh so people are like okay JSN had this enormous year.

35:04 Is it really sustainable especially with No Kubak there?

35:07 We don't know.

35:08 But like he is doing something uh that you know the rest of the NFL needs

35:16 to start doing which is figuring out how

35:18 to beat this kind of coverage both underneath and deep.

35:23 uh like you know too high is designed as a thing that will take away

35:28 that deep portion of the field but if you go to the middle against cover two if

35:34 you get a one-on-one outside go route against

35:38 cover four like there is a possibility if

35:41 you're a really talented receiver that uh you

35:44 can make that work and produce off of that.

35:47 Some other guys that we saw doing really well

35:50 against this who could be in line for breakouts

35:54 uh or you know continued progression after solid

35:56 rookie years would be a Ibuka and Tedro McMillan.

36:01 Uh both of them were in the top 15 in receiving yards against

36:07 this coverage and were also top or near the top of the list in targets.

36:13 So like they clearly have a lot of trust and you know they th

36:18 those two teams are going to be trying to make those guys number ones.

36:21 I think that's pretty clear from their you know team building strategy.

36:25 So I'm really excited to see how it progresses

36:30 with the entire league playing a lot of too high every game.

36:34 It gets more valuable.

36:36 So let's go to Pittsburgh.

36:37 Man, you talking about number ones.

36:39 Now we have two number ones in Pittsburgh with DK Metaf and Michael Pitman.

36:43 In your article, you spoke about how too high data suggests

36:47 both of these guys could really be effective in PPR leagues.

36:50 What is it about their profile that makes

36:52 them a fit for what McCarthy wants to run?

36:55 And is there a case that one or maybe both

36:57 of them ends up being undervalued heading into 2026 drafts?

37:02 Yeah.

37:02 Yeah, potentially.

37:03 I mean, I think especially uh Pitman could end up undervalued.

37:08 Like he he has been a strong PPR guy for a while and, you know,

37:14 doesn't necessarily get the shine that he deserves.

37:16 He was more the kind of underneath outlet option, I would say, against Too High.

37:23 Uh like if he if he would get

37:24 a a one-on-one underneath or like find a soft zone underneath,

37:29 I guess would be more the idea.

37:31 uh he was getting, you know, these these easy, you know,

37:36 slant routes just over and over, uh fade routes, whatever you wanted to do.

37:40 And so, you know, he caught 40 balls against that coverage last year.

37:45 Uh DK did not have quite the same volume,

37:48 but he was actually highly efficient when he was targeted.

37:53 He caught just over 80% of his targets when facing too high.

37:58 So like he could be more the intermediate option on the other side of the field.

38:04 If it is Aaron Rogers back like that's going to be read

38:08 one and read two in some order when he gets this coverage.

38:12 And so you know I I think both of them

38:15 could be really really productive just off of that.

38:19 Another guy we saw be really efficient was Pat Farmouth.

38:22 You know Rogers is a veteran.

38:24 he knows how to how to use his guys

38:26 and uh you know break down whatever he is seeing uh

38:30 with the defense opposite him and you know he's been

38:34 he he has worked with McCarthy for a long long time.

38:38 So if that's the the quarterback they elect to go

38:41 with then it could produce you know really impressive fantasy results.

38:46 It warms my heart to hear you say that Michael Pitman

38:49 may be a little bit undervalued because I've been I've been trying

38:51 to tell my esteemed co-hosts this for weeks and it's like getting

38:55 them to eat broccoli uh to get them to admit to this.

38:59 So, uh I I appreciate that, but but I guess

39:01 it does sort of lend to the fact that the Colts

39:05 felt like Michael Pitman was expendable because they went out

39:08 and and resigned Alec Pierce to a pretty sizable deal.

39:12 So, do we see, you know, maybe greater use?

39:16 Obviously, we'll see greater usage for for Alec Pierce,

39:18 but is there a way that he can be

39:20 a guy who helps beat some of these split safety coverages?

39:23 Can they find a way to kind of make him that lightning rod in the offense?

39:28 Yes, absolutely.

39:29 Uh so, so with Pitman, you know, he talked about him as uh broccoli,

39:35 like he uh I I did think that was funny.

39:40 uh but he you know he's not going to get you the deep balls,

39:44 he's not going to get you the touchdowns.

39:45 Alec Pierce has that splash play capability.

39:49 And then he is also like a big body quick twitch, you know,

39:54 I think he's 6'3 and runs a 44 sub 44 or something like that.

39:58 And so, you know, he is really a do-it-all receiver and he

40:02 has some of the same capabilities as a Jackson Smith and Jigba.

40:09 Um, Alec Pierce was the number one receiver

40:14 in yards per target against two high coverage last season.

40:19 So, the Colts were like, "Okay, we have this guy in the building and like, sure,

40:24 we've been doing a good job uh executing the shorter routes to Pitman,

40:29 but like Alec Pierce is is dynamic.

40:33 He's tearing it up.

40:34 like if we if we give him more of that work,

40:39 I don't see why he shouldn't thrive.

40:41 Um he he showed a really complete type of game last year compared

40:45 to like the deep ball only thing he had been doing in previous seasons.

40:48 So I see no re reason why that couldn't continue to expand

40:53 and he could become like a really top flight type of guy.

40:56 And I know in your article you

40:58 are excited about the Arizona Cardinals pass catchers.

41:01 So, I I want you to talk on that, but I'm

41:03 going to throw two a two-part at you, right?

41:06 Who do you like more between Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr.?

41:09 And you touched on Brock Bowers earlier.

41:12 Is Trey McBride your tight end one or can

41:14 Brock give him a run for his money this year?

41:16 Oh man, that is a tough question.

41:18 Um, yeah, I'm going to I'm going to think about

41:20 that for a second while I talk about the receivers.

41:23 Uh, so I really liked what we saw out of Wilson late in the year last year.

41:27 And one of the craziest things really that I

41:30 came across when I was going through this research

41:33 was Jacobe Brassette was tied for the NFL

41:36 lead in touchdowns against split safety coverage last year.

41:39 Like who would have thought that?

41:42 I not me personally.

41:44 He he threw 10ies and uh five of them were to Wilson.

41:47 Wilson was the only guy with five

41:49 touchdowns against split safety, which is really,

41:51 really interesting because this is usually a thing

41:53 that's played kind of in the field, you know, between the 20s, uh,

41:57 rather than in the red zone where you're going to play man.

42:00 So, like the fact that he was able

42:02 to get five touchdowns on mostly like deeper throws,

42:08 um, that's really promising, especially with a guy in uh,

42:15 Mike Laflur who has been working with Shawn McVey who is well known to uh,

42:20 shred this coverage to pieces uh, just with whoever he has on his offense.

42:25 You know, it's it's been Stafford Nua recently, even with uh,

42:29 golf and Cup, you know, back in, you know, years ago.

42:32 Yeah, there you go.

42:34 MVP.

42:34 Absolutely right.

42:36 Uh yeah, so I I think, you know,

42:37 you could take kind of that blueprint and uh these are not

42:41 guys who are going to go super high up in the draft,

42:45 but maybe at the very end if you're playing two quarterbacks,

42:49 uh and you want to go for Brousette,

42:51 he's probably going to get numbers even if that team doesn't get wins.

42:56 And that also means he's going to be throwing more.

42:58 So, a guy who is near the top of the board in McBride.

43:03 Personally, I think I would lean McBride because he was

43:09 so far out in front of the field this year.

43:12 Um, over over Bowers, but, you know, don't hold me to that.

43:16 We could we could change up on that.

43:18 They're they're they're a perfect number one.

43:19 March 19th.

43:21 That take is written in ink now.

43:24 All right.

43:24 I guess I guess it in every league.

43:27 I got to, you know, put it put my money where my mouth is.

43:29 Uh, okay.

43:30 No.

43:31 Uh, but no, I I am really excited about Trey McBride.

43:34 Uh, if you go back to the chip locks, this is not going to surprise anyone,

43:37 but he had the most uh targets, receptions,

43:40 and yards against or when uh throwing a chip lock.

43:44 And then, you know, it was the same idea against uh too high coverage.

43:49 He was the only tight end in the top 10 for uh which stat is this?

43:57 Oh, yards overexpected, which is a cool one.

43:59 That's a that's a NextGen stat that all of you should check out.

44:02 It's uh indicative of uh a lot of things about a guy's talent.

44:06 But, uh but you know, also led again in targets, receptions, and yards.

44:11 And you know, when you when you have a guy like that, you just kind

44:15 of send it like it it's it's really

44:17 showing that he's doing it better than everyone else.

44:23 We we we didn't get Is it Michael Wilson?

44:25 Marvin Harrison.

44:26 No.

44:26 Yeah.

44:26 Sorry.

44:27 I I did say Wilson.

44:28 We got to know.

44:29 No, for sure.

44:30 I I I'm definitely on uh on Wilson pretty strong this year.

44:35 You know, Harrison's been super up and down.

44:37 I was really in on him last year.

44:39 I thought he was going to figure it out and that's not what we saw.

44:42 So, especially with this uh too high data in mind,

44:45 but also just uh with how the second half of last year went like yeah,

44:50 I would I would say Wilson has kind of taken it over there.

44:54 Nice.

44:55 Well, let's pivot to the Patriots.

44:56 I mean, who will be taking over their production against Too High?

44:59 I mean, could it be Booty?

45:00 Could it be Dos?

45:01 I mean, both were highly efficient on low volume in 2025.

45:05 Mhm.

45:05 That's that's a really good question.

45:08 So I think the idea is kind of that we need to think about

45:12 who is taking over the workload of Stefon Dixs and that could be both

45:18 of them but I think the reason they went out and gave a really big

45:22 chunk of money to Romeo Dobs is because they kind of see him that way.

45:26 So I could easily foresee this being a career year for him.

45:31 Um you know we saw we saw Drake May being super super accurate last year.

45:37 uh just you know high p high completion percentage guy and Dobs

45:43 has generally been really really good at getting himself open in zone.

45:50 So you know that that lends itself to an accurate quarterback

45:54 who can just hit him in stride and get him going.

45:58 And so, you know, Stfan Diggs, older guy who had a little bit of a fantasy

46:03 renaissance in the early part of last year.

46:06 Dos seems to fit right into that space.

46:09 Um, I do love Booty as well.

46:11 Like, if if you're going to um, you know,

46:14 be looking at either one of them in a draft, maybe you just go for both.

46:18 Because if you're talking about what I was saying

46:21 earlier with who is going to run that outside

46:25 go and uh beat cover four or something like that, that is Kan Booty to a tea.

46:32 We saw it as far as the touchdown

46:34 production more than just about anyone else last season.

46:38 And uh you know, so with more volume and more opportunities,

46:45 uh that should only continue to rise.

46:47 Hey, well James, we appreciate the the time.

46:49 A lot of great work.

46:50 For everybody who's out there looking for it, you can go find it at NFL.com.

46:53 Look for stuff by the next gen stats team.

46:56 Uh James with a few articles up there about the chip blocks.

46:59 It's called the secret weapon NFL offenses are

47:01 using to buy QBs and extra half second.

47:04 Also, uh some of the two high safety work,

47:06 the coverage that turned uh the Seahawks into Super

47:09 Bowl winners and is taking the NFL by storm.

47:11 Uh James, we appreciate it.

47:12 Any uh anything uh you got working on?

47:15 Anything in the pipeline?

47:15 maybe folks should keep an eye out for.

47:18 Yeah.

47:18 Yeah, for sure.

47:18 So, uh, within the last week or so, we did get another one up on the site.

47:25 Uh, so if you are looking for what NextGen Stats believes are

47:30 the best free agency fits of this recent crop of signings, uh,

47:35 someone that's going to go really well with the new Cultra coordinator

47:40 that they're working with or fill a gap that existed for that team,

47:45 then uh, yeah, definitely check that article out.

47:47 It is live.

47:49 Uh, these are all on NFL.com.

47:51 You can find them under my name or under the NextGen stats analytics team.

47:55 Uh we're also going to be putting one out on uh the kind of a draft primer,

48:00 what we think are ideal fits from a NextG

48:03 perspective uh as we get close to the draft,

48:06 what could work out in the first round.

48:09 I'm not going to say it's like a a hardline mock.

48:12 It's just like some speculation on the subject.

48:15 Uh and then I would definitely say to follow our Twitter, NextGen Stats.

48:20 We have uh new stuff coming out on there all all the time.

48:24 uh some really good insights that you know you can't get elsewhere.

48:28 So awesome.

48:30 Sounds great.

48:30 Uh be sure to check that out.

48:32 NFL.com/ NGS, one of the easy ways to find it.

48:34 And as you mentioned, uh follow the NextGen Stats Twitter account as well.

48:38 But uh that'll do it for this edition of the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast.

48:42 Stay happy, safe, and healthy.

48:44 Do good and live well.

48:45 Enjoy the tournament, everybody.

48:46 It's that time of year.

48:47 Uh and we will talk to you all again on Tuesday.

48:52 Wow.

48:53 Wow.

49:00 Wow.