2026 WNBA Best Bets: MVP Picks + Fever, Aces, Liberty Win Totals

0:00 Let's go ahead and start with the WNBA.

0:03 We're going to bring in our guy Calvin Wetzel,

0:06 who oh by the way is like the WNBA extraordinary.

0:10 And I want to get to win totals.

0:11 I want to get to futures.

0:12 I want to get to opening night games tomorrow, Calvin.

0:15 But I also want to get your excitement level on this season.

0:18 We're in the 30th WNBA season.

0:20 We got two new expansion teams.

0:22 We've got We've got player movement in the off-season,

0:25 which I thought was really interesting.

0:27 Gauge your level I want to gauge your level

0:29 of excitement before we get into some picks.

0:32 Yeah, I I could not be more hyped for this season, Sea.

0:35 And you know, we had the CBA negotiations over the off-season.

0:37 So, there were some question marks for a while about would the season happen?

0:40 Would it be delayed?

0:42 What's going to go happen there?

0:43 And of course, they signed the CBA and and it it took them a few months.

0:47 So, what usually is is a three, four,

0:50 five-month process of free agency, trades, uh different things like that.

0:55 Everything was crammed into basically the last month or so in April.

0:59 You had the expansion draft for the two new expansion teams you mentioned.

1:02 You had the rookie draft.

1:03 You had all the free agency movement that you talked about.

1:06 All of that was really compressed into about a month.

1:08 So, it really got us ready and and going for the season.

1:12 All right.

1:13 Well, speaking of the season, we've got some of the some of the teams at the top

1:17 of the odds board that I want to break down some win totals for.

1:20 So, we're looking at the top of the board when you look at the odds board.

1:23 You got the New York Liberty.

1:24 On most odds boards, the New York Liberty then followed by the Aces.

1:27 And we'll get to some of the other teams.

1:28 But from a win total standpoint, we've got the Liberty at 32 and 1/2 wins.

1:33 The over is even money.

1:35 The under minus 130.

1:36 Calvin, what are we what are we looking at here?

1:39 I'm taking that over at even money.

1:41 And and there are some 31 and 1/2 south

1:43 there as well if you want to lay some juice, more like a minus 130.

1:46 Either way, I think that's a good bet.

1:48 This Liberty team is clearly the best team in the league.

1:52 Obviously, they've been a contender the last

1:54 few seasons and they won a championship a couple years ago and now you bring

1:57 in three-time All-Star Satou Sabally over the off-season,

2:01 one of the biggest free agent acquisitions across the league.

2:04 Benaja Laney Hamilton is back.

2:06 You have a new coach, Chris DeMarco.

2:08 So, a lot of hype around this team and if they're healthy,

2:12 I don't see anyone competing with them.

2:14 Now, health obviously can be a concern.

2:16 We know Sabrina Ionescu got hurt during the preseason.

2:19 She's going to miss a couple weeks still question

2:21 marks with Sabally as well to start the season,

2:24 but all of that should be pretty short-term.

2:26 Maybe miss two or three games, but for the most part,

2:30 this team is going to be just far and away better

2:34 than everyone else and and when you look at Breanna Stewart,

2:37 Jonquel Jones, Satou Sabally, the length that this team has,

2:41 I don't I don't think anyone can match up with that.

2:43 So, I like the over.

2:45 Calvin, I know Aces fans are out there watching this show

2:47 and they're taking it exception to the idea that some

2:50 team is far and away better than the Aces who

2:52 have been pretty dominant over the last handful of years here.

2:55 Their win total is 30 and a half.

2:57 Now, the over for the Aces is minus 120, under minus 110.

3:02 No plus numbers here.

3:04 What do we like?

3:05 Well, I'm I don't want to disrespect those Aces fans at all

3:08 and and I do think the Aces Aces are good playoff team,

3:11 but I am taking the under on 30 and a half.

3:14 I think this is one of those teams.

3:16 They've won three of the last four championships.

3:19 They they've gone under in three

3:22 of those four seasons including the last two seasons.

3:24 This win total This is one of those teams that turns it on in the playoffs.

3:28 Now that they have all these championships under their belt,

3:30 they kind of know what it takes in terms of resting up,

3:34 keeping your players healthy,

3:36 especially a team that doesn't have very much depth

3:38 and hasn't had very much depth for several years now.

3:40 They typically rely on their starters.

3:42 So, so this is one of those teams

3:44 that they're content entering the the playoffs as two seed,

3:48 three seed, four seed.

3:50 They they don't necessarily push it all in in the regular season,

3:54 but when it gets to the playoffs, they are at as good as it gets

3:57 in and definitely right up there with the contenders.

4:00 So, it it's hard to fade a a player like A'ja Wilson in the playoffs,

4:03 but when it comes to the regular season,

4:05 I do think that this team stays under 30 and a half.

4:09 We are going to talk some player awards later in the show,

4:11 and I know A'ja Wilson is very much featured in that portion.

4:15 So, stay tuned for more Aces talk.

4:17 Let's go to the Indiana Fever.

4:19 Um this is one of the teams that a lot of eyeballs are on, Calvin.

4:21 Obviously, everybody's hoping Caitlin Clark is going

4:24 to be healthy for most of the season.

4:27 Their win total is 29 and a half, minus 110 minus 110 each way over at BetMGM.

4:32 What are your thoughts here?

4:33 Over or under?

4:35 Now, I do like this team, but this is another one that I'm taking the under on.

4:39 The The thing about the Fever is anytime

4:41 you bet the Fever in a positive direction,

4:43 you're you're paying a Caitlin Clark tax.

4:45 She's obviously the most popular player to bet on in the league,

4:50 and and whether it's individual props for her or or team success,

4:54 these lines are going to be a little bit inflated just because

4:56 of how much action books take on Caitlin Clark and on her team.

5:00 And and so, I do think the under is a sharp move here.

5:03 Obviously, they have her back, like you said, hopefully healthy.

5:06 She looked healthy in the preseason.

5:08 Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell back as well.

5:10 But after that, the depth really drops off a cliff, similar to the Aces.

5:15 They already didn't have very much depth last year.

5:17 They only played six players last year, 600 plus minutes across the season.

5:21 That was tied for the fewest in the league.

5:24 And and then they lost Natasha Howard

5:25 to the Lynx over the offseason in free agency.

5:28 Didn't really bring in anyone notable to replace her.

5:30 So, I think this is another team

5:32 that's that's really going to struggle with depth.

5:34 And if you see anyone miss any time at all,

5:37 even if someone misses a week or two weeks in that starting lineup,

5:40 then things that start to drop off pretty fast.

5:42 So, this is another team that is probably going to be better in the playoffs

5:47 if they can keep their players healthy and and fresh ready for the playoffs,

5:51 but in the regular season I'm taking the under at 29 and a half.

5:55 All right, those are the top three teams on the odds board,

5:57 but I'm going to give you cart blanche to pick

5:59 your favorite win total of any of the teams

6:02 on the odds board and Calvin you just

6:04 mentioned Natasha Howard going over to the Minnesota Lynx.

6:06 That's not enough of an improvement for you

6:09 to not fade the Minnesota Lynx win total.

6:13 It's not because despite bringing her in when you look

6:16 at the for rest of the front court they they lost quite a bit.

6:19 Of course Napheesa Collier who was the MVP frontrunner

6:22 for most of last year before ended up finishing second.

6:25 She is out for probably two months or so.

6:28 She's resuming basketball activities in early June.

6:31 She might come back mid-June, late June, early July.

6:34 We don't know, but obviously losing an MVP candidate for a couple months

6:38 is a big deal and the rest of your front court as well.

6:40 Alanna Smith went to Dallas, Jessica Shepard went to Dallas.

6:44 They lost them and they brought in Natasha Howard,

6:48 but they also Dorka Juhász isn't healthy yet either.

6:50 She's going to start the season injured as well.

6:53 So outside of Natasha Howard this front court has just about no

6:57 one in terms of what they had last year and and in terms

7:00 of talent I I don't think it's a very deep front court at all

7:03 and when Napheesa Collier does come back this is clearly a solid team,

7:07 but I don't think this is even a 500 team without her.

7:11 So if you if you're spending the first couple months without

7:13 her this line is going to drop into the low 20s

7:16 and and then maybe when she comes back is when you

7:18 you can hit that over in in the middle of the season,

7:20 but for now I think this line is too high.

7:23 All right, the line is too high.

7:24 We're taking the under on the Lynx 26 and a half wins.

7:28 Calvin don't go anywhere.

7:29 We've got a lot more to cover when it comes to the WNBA,

7:32 but I do want to mention we've got sportsline.com/join

7:36 where you can get all of our expert picks, all of our articles, simulations,

7:40 WNBA talk and otherwise you can find it at sportsline.com/join.

7:44 And once you're there, you get the SportsLine Discord for free.

7:47 discord.gg/sportsline is where you find that only if you're a SportsLine member.

7:53 Well, Calvin has some material over on SportsLine,

7:55 and he's going to be talking next on the Early Edge,

7:58 season-long bets, including player awards.

8:01 That's coming up on the Early Edge.

8:19 We're back on the Early Edge, and it's time to talk some WNBA season-long bets.

8:24 We're going to kick it off with player awards with our MVP, Calvin Wetzel,

8:28 and let's talk MVP, Calvin, because you'll look at the top of the board here.

8:32 We're going to see names like A'ja Wilson,

8:33 Breanna Stewart, Caitlin Clark, maybe Alyssa Thomas.

8:37 Which one of that group are we taking, or are we going down the board?

8:41 Uh to me, this is kind of a don't overthink it award.

8:45 It happens, so I'm going with the favorite, A'ja Wilson,

8:47 or at least the co-favorite, depends on what book you look at.

8:50 Caitlin Clark's the favorite at some books.

8:52 Plus 265 is about the best you can get on A'ja Wilson out there.

8:55 And you know, my instinct at first was to look at long shots.

8:58 That's usually pretty fun when you look at awards.

9:00 And I do have a long shot later on in this segment.

9:02 But with this award, like I said, I think you can't overthink it.

9:06 A'ja Wilson has won four of the last six.

9:08 One of the ones she didn't was one of the closest votes we've ever seen,

9:11 almost five of the last six.

9:13 Best player in the world at age 29.

9:15 Napheesa Collier, like we said in the last segment,

9:18 out for a couple months, she's out of the picture.

9:20 Breanna Stewart, one of the perennial contenders you mentioned,

9:23 is on a loaded New York team, and I think they have too many mouths

9:25 to feed for her to really put up the stats.

9:28 Alyssa Thomas kind of the opposite problem.

9:29 She's going to put up stats,

9:30 but I don't think her team is going to crack the top three,

9:33 and you really got to be in the top three to win this award.

9:35 So then you're down to A'ja and Caitlin and and again, Caitlin Clark tax.

9:39 uh I think Caitlin Clark could win

9:41 this, but in terms of the odds that we're getting,

9:43 I just think she's overvalued right now.

9:45 So I'm going with Asia Wilson at plus 265.

9:48 All right, and I want to go to Defensive Player of the Year now.

9:50 We know Asia Wilson does it on both ends of the floor.

9:54 Are we going to Asia there as well?

9:56 I am.

9:57 I'm going with her as well about the same odds

9:59 upper 200s might even be able to find a plus 300

10:02 out there and and what I'm really betting on here

10:04 with with these two is for Asia Wilson to win an award.

10:08 I'm I'm sort of treating it as her to win over 0.5 awards because

10:12 she's done this in four straight years won one or the other of these.

10:15 She's won three of the last four Defensive Player

10:18 of the Years and if she doesn't win MVP, she tends to win this award.

10:21 She's led the league in blocks four straight years.

10:24 She's averaged around one and a half steals each of those years.

10:27 Cameron Brink it is another contender for this, but she looks like she's

10:31 going to be coming off the bench now with with the Los Angeles Sparks

10:34 signing Nneka Ogwumike over the off season and and so I think this is

10:39 Asia's award to lose as well and she might not win both of them,

10:42 but it it basically works out to even money for her to win

10:46 one or the other if you take both of these.

10:48 I I think it's way over a coin flip that she gets at least one.

10:51 Yeah, it sounds like there are some numbers out there where

10:54 you can actually make money with the over a half certainly,

10:58 but you can hit both.

10:59 I absolutely love that line of logic especially with somebody like Asia Wilson.

11:02 Let's go to a Coach of the Year winner.

11:06 Well, this is the one where I am taking a long shot.

11:08 In fact, the longest shot on the board

11:10 Rashid Meziane of the Connecticut Sun plus 8,000

11:14 at some books that the longest odds out there

11:17 and this is all about the number for me.

11:18 I I I don't think anyone in this market should be as high as plus 8,000.

11:24 There's always a team that surprises and and that's

11:26 the team who wins this and so generally a team that surprises you is a team

11:30 that had low expectations to start the season.

11:33 And then they ended up being being fairly good.

11:35 Now, this is always a team that's 500 plus.

11:38 No one's ever won this from a team below 500,

11:40 so they will have to get to 500 to have a shot, which would be 22 and 22.

11:44 Their their win total is at 12 and 1/2,

11:46 so they'd have to exceed it by about 10 wins.

11:49 But, if they do exceed their win total by 10 wins,

11:52 he's easily the frontrunner, almost doubling the preseason expectations.

11:56 And they're priced right now at plus 1,300 to win 22 plus games.

12:03 I think he should be more like that, plus 1,300, plus 1,500, maybe plus 2,000.

12:07 So, the fact that we're getting plus 8,000 on Coach of the Year,

12:10 I I think it's worth a little sprinkle.

12:12 Calvin, you mentioned attacks when it comes to like the Caitlin

12:15 Clarks of the world and some of these top-tier teams.

12:18 This is the opposite, right, with the Connecticut Sun?

12:20 Isn't it true that the sentiment kind of down

12:22 on the Sun with them moving to Houston next year and just,

12:25 you know, not not necessarily being at the top of the the the food chain here?

12:31 It it is.

12:31 The the sentiment is really low on them.

12:33 They have the second lowest win total in the league.

12:35 One of the expansion teams is higher than them,

12:37 and and the only team lower is the other expansion team, the Portland Fire.

12:41 But, I think this Sun team has a lot of young talent

12:44 and and a lot of potential to to really raise some eyebrows,

12:49 especially in in this first game that we'll talk about in the next segment,

12:53 to leave that dangling.

12:54 But, I really am high on this Connecticut Sun team this year.

12:57 All right.

12:57 Well, let's talk about one of the players you like.

12:59 How about an under the radar player that you like to shine this year in the W?

13:04 Yeah, I mentioned a lot of that young talent on the Sun,

13:06 and one of those names is Aliyah Edwards, one of the reasons why I like the Sun.

13:10 She's entering year three.

13:11 I think she is a candidate for most improved player.

13:14 A a lot of the the favorites in that market are year two players,

13:19 but it's been almost a decade since a year two player won that award.

13:22 That was in 2017, so I think year three

13:24 and year four players are better bets for that award.

13:27 And in Washington, Aliyah Edwards had had good rates.

13:31 She just kind of got stuck in a log jam in the front court.

13:33 Stefanie Dolson was there, Shakira Austin.

13:35 Last year they drafted Kiki Iriafen who kind of jumped around the depth chart,

13:39 so she never really got the minutes that that she was looking for.

13:43 I think a fresh start on the Connecticut

13:45 Sun will be great for her in year three.

13:46 Now, they do have Alyssa Thomas and Brittney Griner,

13:48 but this is one of those teams I think Brittney Griner

13:51 kind of comes in and starts the season as the starting center,

13:55 but she's an aging veteran and and everyone else

13:58 on this team is young and they're kind of rebuilding,

14:00 so I think it's one of those situations where

14:02 as the season goes on, you see them move

14:04 away from players like Brittney Griner and more towards

14:07 passing the baton off to younger players like Aliyah Edwards.

14:10 So, I really like her this year.

14:12 Calvin, in a few minutes we're going to talk opening night bets,

14:15 which I'm very excited about.

14:17 Of course, opening night tomorrow.

14:19 With all of that said, I want to fast forward to the end of the season.

14:23 Let's get a final smash up and I'm looking at it and I'm cheating a little bit.

14:27 It looks like you're not trying to overthink this.

14:30 I'm not overthinking it at all.

14:32 I'm going with the Liberty for all the reasons I talked about

14:34 at the top of the first segment and then the Aces as well.

14:38 I think we're going to get another Liberty Aces epic playoff battle

14:42 in the finals and when you look at the Aces adding Kennedy Carter,

14:47 I think I think it's only going to help and like I said earlier, playoff team,

14:52 even if they get a two seed or a three seed,

14:55 they are going to be ready to go for the playoffs.

14:57 Now, if they drop to a four seed and and you

14:59 could potentially see this as a semi-final match up,

15:02 which is what we saw a couple of years ago in in the one

15:04 versus four because I do think the Liberty are going to get the one seed,

15:08 but I I don't think that's going to happen.

15:09 I think the Aces are going to be in that two versus three match up.

15:12 So, I think this is going to be the finals

15:14 match up that we're going to get this season.

15:17 All right.

15:17 Well, I'm going to make you pick a winner, Calvin.

15:19 Who you got?

15:19 Is it the Liberty or is it the Aces?

15:22 I do have the Liberty.

15:23 I think that roster is just too good and just too big.

15:27 Like I said off the top, so much length when you talk about Satou Sabally,

15:31 Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones.

15:33 You really have two power forwards and one of them playing

15:37 the three and then you have players like Leoni Fiebich, 6'4,

15:42 maybe at the two position with Sabrina Ionescu,

15:45 your point guard and then you bring like a 6'10 Han Xu off the bench.

15:49 There's so much length on this team and most of that length

15:52 outside of maybe Han Xu is very switchable as well.

15:55 So, I I think this defense is going to be excellent.

15:57 Haven't even mentioned Bec Allen yet,

15:59 another really lengthy player off the bench

16:01 who can switch and guard one through five.

16:03 I think this defense is absolutely stacked and going to give

16:06 teams nightmares with the length and switchability that they have.

16:10 So, ultimately I'm in on this Liberty team

16:12 this season and I think they bring home the hardware.