My 2024 Election Night Map Prediction (2 Months 'Till The Election)
Election Time
0:00 the 2024 presidential election will be
0:02 the 2024 presidential election will be
0:02 the 2024 presidential election will be held in exactly 2 months on November 5th
0:06 held in exactly 2 months on November 5th
0:06 held in exactly 2 months on November 5th and today I'll be updating my electoral
0:08 and today I'll be updating my electoral
0:08 and today I'll be updating my electoral map prediction between kamla Harris and
0:11 map prediction between kamla Harris and
0:11 map prediction between kamla Harris and Donald Trump but we're going to do it a
0:13 Donald Trump but we're going to do it a
0:13 Donald Trump but we're going to do it a little bit differently I'm going to fill
0:15 little bit differently I'm going to fill
0:15 little bit differently I'm going to fill in the states based on when polls close
0:18 in the states based on when polls close
0:18 in the states based on when polls close so we're going to start off on the east
0:20 so we're going to start off on the east
0:20 so we're going to start off on the east coast and slowly move our way west to
0:22 coast and slowly move our way west to
0:22 coast and slowly move our way west to mimic how the states will actually fill
0:24 mimic how the states will actually fill
0:24 mimic how the states will actually fill in on Election night and so in case you
0:27 in on Election night and so in case you
0:27 in on Election night and so in case you didn't know voting doesn't end in each
0:29 didn't know voting doesn't end in each
0:29 didn't know voting doesn't end in each state at the same same time they end at
0:31 state at the same same time they end at
0:31 state at the same same time they end at various different hours and so we're
0:32 various different hours and so we're
0:32 various different hours and so we're going to begin with the states whose
0:34 going to begin with the states whose
0:34 going to begin with the states whose polls will close first at 700 p.m.
0:37 polls will close first at 700 p.m.
0:37 polls will close first at 700 p.m. eastern time so we have these Six States
0:41 eastern time so we have these Six States
0:41 eastern time so we have these Six States and I'm going to start off with Vermont
0:43 and I'm going to start off with Vermont
0:43 and I'm going to start off with Vermont which is going to be safe for kamla
0:45 which is going to be safe for kamla
0:45 which is going to be safe for kamla Harris while Donald Trump is easily
0:47 Harris while Donald Trump is easily
0:47 Harris while Donald Trump is easily going to win Indiana Kentucky and South
0:50 going to win Indiana Kentucky and South
0:50 going to win Indiana Kentucky and South Carolina but we do have two slightly
0:53 Carolina but we do have two slightly
0:53 Carolina but we do have two slightly more competitive races the first one in
0:56 more competitive races the first one in
0:56 more competitive races the first one in Virginia now this is a state that Joe
0:58 Virginia now this is a state that Joe
0:58 Virginia now this is a state that Joe Biden won by a 10 Point margin in the
1:01 Biden won by a 10 Point margin in the
1:01 Biden won by a 10 Point margin in the 2020 election but today Virginia is
1:04 2020 election but today Virginia is
1:04 2020 election but today Virginia is significantly more competitive than it
1:06 significantly more competitive than it
1:06 significantly more competitive than it was before from 2010 until 2021 not a
1:10 was before from 2010 until 2021 not a
1:10 was before from 2010 until 2021 not a single Republican was elected in a
1:11 single Republican was elected in a
1:12 single Republican was elected in a Statewide election in Virginia however
1:14 Statewide election in Virginia however
1:14 Statewide election in Virginia however in 2021 Glenn Yun a republican won the
1:17 in 2021 Glenn Yun a republican won the
1:17 in 2021 Glenn Yun a republican won the governorship and today Virginia has
1:19 governorship and today Virginia has
1:19 governorship and today Virginia has taken a significant shift to the right
1:22 taken a significant shift to the right
1:22 taken a significant shift to the right in fact before Joe Biden dropped out of
1:24 in fact before Joe Biden dropped out of
1:24 in fact before Joe Biden dropped out of the election he was losing in the
1:26 the election he was losing in the
1:26 the election he was losing in the polling average in Virginia to Donald
1:28 polling average in Virginia to Donald
1:28 polling average in Virginia to Donald Trump and now that that Harris has
1:30 Trump and now that that Harris has
1:30 Trump and now that that Harris has replaced the incoming president at the
1:32 replaced the incoming president at the
1:32 replaced the incoming president at the top of the democratic ticket she is
1:34 top of the democratic ticket she is
1:34 top of the democratic ticket she is barely doing better she leads by just
1:36 barely doing better she leads by just
1:36 barely doing better she leads by just three points in the two most recent
1:39 three points in the two most recent
1:39 three points in the two most recent polls so Virginia is going to be a tilt
1:41 polls so Virginia is going to be a tilt
1:42 polls so Virginia is going to be a tilt Democratic state it can definitely get
1:43 Democratic state it can definitely get
1:43 Democratic state it can definitely get competitive especially with major
1:45 competitive especially with major
1:45 competitive especially with major Republican victories in just the last
1:48 Republican victories in just the last
1:48 Republican victories in just the last few years moving down to Georgia The
1:50 few years moving down to Georgia The
1:50 few years moving down to Georgia The Peach State actually went to Biden in
1:52 Peach State actually went to Biden in
1:52 Peach State actually went to Biden in the last election this was the first
1:53 the last election this was the first
1:53 the last election this was the first time a Democrat won Georgia since 1992
1:56 time a Democrat won Georgia since 1992
1:56 time a Democrat won Georgia since 1992 is a pretty big deal but considering
1:58 is a pretty big deal but considering
1:58 is a pretty big deal but considering just how small Biden's margin victory
2:01 just how small Biden's margin victory
2:01 just how small Biden's margin victory was it won't take too much for Trump to
2:03 was it won't take too much for Trump to
2:03 was it won't take too much for Trump to win the state back Georgia is still
2:05 win the state back Georgia is still
2:05 win the state back Georgia is still fundamentally a conservative State Trump
2:07 fundamentally a conservative State Trump
2:07 fundamentally a conservative State Trump carried it by Five Points in 2016 and
2:10 carried it by Five Points in 2016 and
2:10 carried it by Five Points in 2016 and Brian Kemp won his reelection in the
2:12 Brian Kemp won his reelection in the
2:12 Brian Kemp won his reelection in the peach state by a likely margin in 2022
2:15 peach state by a likely margin in 2022
2:15 peach state by a likely margin in 2022 so Georgia on the presidential level
2:16 so Georgia on the presidential level
2:16 so Georgia on the presidential level it's going to be slightly more
2:18 it's going to be slightly more
2:18 it's going to be slightly more competitive it will be a lean GOP state
2:21 competitive it will be a lean GOP state
2:21 competitive it will be a lean GOP state for right now next up at 7:30 voting
2:23 for right now next up at 7:30 voting
2:23 for right now next up at 7:30 voting will end in Ohio West Virginia and North
2:26 will end in Ohio West Virginia and North
2:26 will end in Ohio West Virginia and North Carolina to get West Virginia out of the
2:28 Carolina to get West Virginia out of the
2:28 Carolina to get West Virginia out of the way it's one of the un states in the
2:30 way it's one of the un states in the
2:30 way it's one of the un states in the country Trump won it by 40 points in the
2:32 country Trump won it by 40 points in the
2:32 country Trump won it by 40 points in the last two elections he's going to carry
2:34 last two elections he's going to carry
2:34 last two elections he's going to carry it for a third time while in Ohio this
2:36 it for a third time while in Ohio this
2:37 it for a third time while in Ohio this state used to be very competitive it was
2:38 state used to be very competitive it was
2:38 state used to be very competitive it was a bellweather state which means that it
2:40 a bellweather state which means that it
2:40 a bellweather state which means that it voted with the eventual presidential
2:42 voted with the eventual presidential
2:42 voted with the eventual presidential election winner and that was the case
2:44 election winner and that was the case
2:44 election winner and that was the case for nearly 60 years until its streak was
2:46 for nearly 60 years until its streak was
2:47 for nearly 60 years until its streak was broken in 2020 when Joe Biden won the
2:49 broken in 2020 when Joe Biden won the
2:49 broken in 2020 when Joe Biden won the election but lost the Buckeye state by
2:52 election but lost the Buckeye state by
2:52 election but lost the Buckeye state by an eight-point margin today Ohio is
2:54 an eight-point margin today Ohio is
2:54 an eight-point margin today Ohio is among the most conservative in the
2:55 among the most conservative in the
2:56 among the most conservative in the country it reelected its Republican
2:57 country it reelected its Republican
2:57 country it reelected its Republican Governor by a 20o margin just two years
3:00 Governor by a 20o margin just two years
3:00 Governor by a 20o margin just two years ago on the presidential level it's going
3:02 ago on the presidential level it's going
3:02 ago on the presidential level it's going to be slightly more competitive Trump
3:04 to be slightly more competitive Trump
3:04 to be slightly more competitive Trump can win by double digit margin but
3:06 can win by double digit margin but
3:06 can win by double digit margin but Crossing 15 points is going to be
3:08 Crossing 15 points is going to be
3:08 Crossing 15 points is going to be difficult so Ohio is going to be likely
3:10 difficult so Ohio is going to be likely
3:10 difficult so Ohio is going to be likely Republican for now while down in North
3:13 Republican for now while down in North
3:13 Republican for now while down in North Carolina it's going to be competitive
3:15 Carolina it's going to be competitive
3:15 Carolina it's going to be competitive just like Georgia but this time Trump
3:17 just like Georgia but this time Trump
3:17 just like Georgia but this time Trump actually won the state in 2020 in fact
3:20 actually won the state in 2020 in fact
3:20 actually won the state in 2020 in fact only one Democrat has won the taril
3:22 only one Democrat has won the taril
3:22 only one Democrat has won the taril state since 1976 and that was Barack
3:25 state since 1976 and that was Barack
3:25 state since 1976 and that was Barack Obama in 2008 by the smallest margin
3:28 Obama in 2008 by the smallest margin
3:28 Obama in 2008 by the smallest margin possible KLA Harris is not going to be
3:30 possible KLA Harris is not going to be
3:30 possible KLA Harris is not going to be the second Democrat to win this state in
3:33 the second Democrat to win this state in
3:33 the second Democrat to win this state in 50 years Bing couldn't do it four years
3:34 50 years Bing couldn't do it four years
3:35 50 years Bing couldn't do it four years ago and honestly the incoming president
3:37 ago and honestly the incoming president
3:37 ago and honestly the incoming president was a much better candidate than the
3:38 was a much better candidate than the
3:38 was a much better candidate than the vice president is right now so North
3:40 vice president is right now so North
3:40 vice president is right now so North Carolina is also going to be leaned red
3:42 Carolina is also going to be leaned red
3:42 Carolina is also going to be leaned red yes it's going to be competitive but
3:44 yes it's going to be competitive but
3:44 yes it's going to be competitive but Donald Trump has a clear Edge before we
3:47 Donald Trump has a clear Edge before we
3:47 Donald Trump has a clear Edge before we continue only 16% of you guys are
3:49 continue only 16% of you guys are
3:49 continue only 16% of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the
3:51 actually subscribed so please take the
3:51 actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more
3:53 time to subscribe right now for more
3:53 time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the
3:55 content like this leading up to the
3:55 content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on
3:57 election in November and follow me on
3:57 election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates Link
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3:59 Twitter for daily political updates Link in the descript description below we're
4:00 in the descript description below we're
4:00 in the descript description below we're now going to move on to the 800 p.m.
4:02 now going to move on to the 800 p.m.
4:02 now going to move on to the 800 p.m. poll closing this is the largest poll
4:04 poll closing this is the largest poll
4:04 poll closing this is the largest poll closing of the night the states where
4:07 closing of the night the states where
4:07 closing of the night the states where voting ends here are worth 21 electoral
4:11 voting ends here are worth 21 electoral
4:11 voting ends here are worth 21 electoral votes nearly half of the Electoral
4:13 votes nearly half of the Electoral
4:13 votes nearly half of the Electoral College itself we have big States like
4:16 College itself we have big States like
4:16 College itself we have big States like Texas Florida and Pennsylvania which is
4:18 Texas Florida and Pennsylvania which is
4:18 Texas Florida and Pennsylvania which is arguably the most important state on the
4:21 arguably the most important state on the
4:21 arguably the most important state on the map and so we're going to begin by
4:23 map and so we're going to begin by
4:23 map and so we're going to begin by filling in the solid states that we find
4:25 filling in the solid states that we find
4:25 filling in the solid states that we find here of course Cal Harris is going to
4:28 here of course Cal Harris is going to
4:28 here of course Cal Harris is going to win in the first district of Maine
4:29 win in the first district of Maine
4:29 win in the first district of Maine she'll also come out on top in
4:31 she'll also come out on top in
4:31 she'll also come out on top in Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island
4:33 Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island
4:33 Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island the District of Columbia and Maryland
4:36 the District of Columbia and Maryland
4:36 the District of Columbia and Maryland while Trump is going to easily clinch
4:38 while Trump is going to easily clinch
4:38 while Trump is going to easily clinch Oklahoma Missouri Tennessee Mississippi
4:41 Oklahoma Missouri Tennessee Mississippi
4:41 Oklahoma Missouri Tennessee Mississippi and Alabama many of the remaining States
4:44 and Alabama many of the remaining States
4:44 and Alabama many of the remaining States here though are going to be likely for
4:45 here though are going to be likely for
4:45 here though are going to be likely for either one candidate and just to clarify
4:47 either one candidate and just to clarify
4:47 either one candidate and just to clarify solid is 15 plus anything between 7 to
4:49 solid is 15 plus anything between 7 to
4:49 solid is 15 plus anything between 7 to 15 is likely 2 to 7 is lean and less
4:52 15 is likely 2 to 7 is lean and less
4:52 15 is likely 2 to 7 is lean and less than two is going to be categorized as
4:54 than two is going to be categorized as
4:54 than two is going to be categorized as tilt so we're going to fill in some of
4:57 tilt so we're going to fill in some of
4:57 tilt so we're going to fill in some of these likely blue States now they're
4:58 these likely blue States now they're
4:58 these likely blue States now they're still going to go to Comm Harris
5:00 still going to go to Comm Harris
5:00 still going to go to Comm Harris basically for sure she's just not going
5:01 basically for sure she's just not going
5:02 basically for sure she's just not going to win them by 15 points first off we
5:04 to win them by 15 points first off we
5:04 to win them by 15 points first off we have New Jersey and Delaware they're
5:06 have New Jersey and Delaware they're
5:06 have New Jersey and Delaware they're just going to be slightly more
5:07 just going to be slightly more
5:07 just going to be slightly more competitive Illinois will be as well
5:10 competitive Illinois will be as well
5:10 competitive Illinois will be as well while for Donald Trump he is of course
5:12 while for Donald Trump he is of course
5:12 while for Donald Trump he is of course going to win both Texas and Florida in
5:15 going to win both Texas and Florida in
5:15 going to win both Texas and Florida in 2020 both of these states were
5:16 2020 both of these states were
5:16 2020 both of these states were relatively competitive in fact in the
5:18 relatively competitive in fact in the
5:18 relatively competitive in fact in the polling Joe Baden LED at multiple points
5:21 polling Joe Baden LED at multiple points
5:21 polling Joe Baden LED at multiple points in the polling average in the lonar
5:23 in the polling average in the lonar
5:23 in the polling average in the lonar state in the end he lost it by six
5:25 state in the end he lost it by six
5:25 state in the end he lost it by six points but he was only supposed to lose
5:26 points but he was only supposed to lose
5:26 points but he was only supposed to lose it by one according to the polls Texas
5:29 it by one according to the polls Texas
5:29 it by one according to the polls Texas was state that was well within the
5:31 was state that was well within the
5:31 was state that was well within the margin of error Donald Trump did much
5:33 margin of error Donald Trump did much
5:33 margin of error Donald Trump did much better than what the polls said just
5:34 better than what the polls said just
5:35 better than what the polls said just like he did basically everywhere else
5:36 like he did basically everywhere else
5:37 like he did basically everywhere else 2020 was supposed to be a near Landslide
5:39 2020 was supposed to be a near Landslide
5:39 2020 was supposed to be a near Landslide victory for Joe Biden but in the end he
5:42 victory for Joe Biden but in the end he
5:42 victory for Joe Biden but in the end he barely won if he had lost Wisconsin
5:44 barely won if he had lost Wisconsin
5:44 barely won if he had lost Wisconsin Georgia and Arizona three states he won
5:47 Georgia and Arizona three states he won
5:47 Georgia and Arizona three states he won by less than 1% he would have lost the
5:49 by less than 1% he would have lost the
5:49 by less than 1% he would have lost the election entirely and so Texas it's
5:52 election entirely and so Texas it's
5:52 election entirely and so Texas it's going to go to Trump by a double digit
5:53 going to go to Trump by a double digit
5:53 going to go to Trump by a double digit margin this time around it will be a
5:55 margin this time around it will be a
5:55 margin this time around it will be a likely Red State winning it by 15 though
5:58 likely Red State winning it by 15 though
5:58 likely Red State winning it by 15 though is going to be difficult Republicans
5:59 is going to be difficult Republicans
5:59 is going to be difficult Republicans haven't done that since Mitt Romney in
6:01 haven't done that since Mitt Romney in
6:01 haven't done that since Mitt Romney in 2012 Florida the Republicans should be
6:04 2012 Florida the Republicans should be
6:04 2012 Florida the Republicans should be very happy about winning by a likely
6:06 very happy about winning by a likely
6:06 very happy about winning by a likely margin the state hasn't been this solid
6:08 margin the state hasn't been this solid
6:08 margin the state hasn't been this solid for either one party in nearly four
6:11 for either one party in nearly four
6:11 for either one party in nearly four decades you'd have to go all the way
6:12 decades you'd have to go all the way
6:12 decades you'd have to go all the way back to the bush era when Florida wasn't
6:15 back to the bush era when Florida wasn't
6:15 back to the bush era when Florida wasn't a lean or tilt State the sunshine state
6:17 a lean or tilt State the sunshine state
6:18 a lean or tilt State the sunshine state has taken a dramatic shift to the right
6:20 has taken a dramatic shift to the right
6:20 has taken a dramatic shift to the right over the last few years Ronda Sanchez
6:22 over the last few years Ronda Sanchez
6:22 over the last few years Ronda Sanchez was reelected by a 20o margin in 2020d
6:25 was reelected by a 20o margin in 2020d
6:25 was reelected by a 20o margin in 2020d and Trump actually won Florida by a
6:26 and Trump actually won Florida by a
6:26 and Trump actually won Florida by a larger margin against Biden than he did
6:29 larger margin against Biden than he did
6:29 larger margin against Biden than he did against against Clinton and so today
6:31 against against Clinton and so today
6:31 against against Clinton and so today Trum is on track to winning Florida for
6:32 Trum is on track to winning Florida for
6:32 Trum is on track to winning Florida for a third time in a row probably by 7 to
6:35 a third time in a row probably by 7 to
6:35 a third time in a row probably by 7 to 10 points moving up to the Northeast we
6:38 10 points moving up to the Northeast we
6:38 10 points moving up to the Northeast we have New Hampshire which is going to be
6:39 have New Hampshire which is going to be
6:39 have New Hampshire which is going to be tilt in favor of KLA Harris this state
6:42 tilt in favor of KLA Harris this state
6:42 tilt in favor of KLA Harris this state can get very competitive I mean just
6:43 can get very competitive I mean just
6:43 can get very competitive I mean just look at 2016 Donald Trump almost won it
6:46 look at 2016 Donald Trump almost won it
6:46 look at 2016 Donald Trump almost won it Hillary Clinton clinched the granite
6:48 Hillary Clinton clinched the granite
6:48 Hillary Clinton clinched the granite state by less than half a percentage
6:50 state by less than half a percentage
6:50 state by less than half a percentage point no state was more competitive
6:52 point no state was more competitive
6:52 point no state was more competitive except Michigan it was closer than
6:54 except Michigan it was closer than
6:54 except Michigan it was closer than Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and so today
6:57 Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and so today
6:57 Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and so today KL Harris leads by around 3 to 4 points
6:59 KL Harris leads by around 3 to 4 points
6:59 KL Harris leads by around 3 to 4 points on the polling in New Hampshire which
7:01 on the polling in New Hampshire which
7:01 on the polling in New Hampshire which honestly isn't that great Joe Biden did
7:03 honestly isn't that great Joe Biden did
7:03 honestly isn't that great Joe Biden did much better in the polling and he only
7:04 much better in the polling and he only
7:04 much better in the polling and he only won state by 7% in the very end in fact
7:08 won state by 7% in the very end in fact
7:08 won state by 7% in the very end in fact KLA Harris is wasting time right now in
7:11 KLA Harris is wasting time right now in
7:11 KLA Harris is wasting time right now in New Hampshire because she is afraid that
7:13 New Hampshire because she is afraid that
7:13 New Hampshire because she is afraid that she could lose it and that is very much
7:15 she could lose it and that is very much
7:15 she could lose it and that is very much a possibility up in Maine we have a lean
7:18 a possibility up in Maine we have a lean
7:18 a possibility up in Maine we have a lean Democratic State the state as a whole
7:20 Democratic State the state as a whole
7:20 Democratic State the state as a whole still favors Democrats ever so slightly
7:22 still favors Democrats ever so slightly
7:22 still favors Democrats ever so slightly KLA Harris is going to perform similarly
7:24 KLA Harris is going to perform similarly
7:24 KLA Harris is going to perform similarly to Clinton when she won the state by
7:26 to Clinton when she won the state by
7:27 to Clinton when she won the state by just under three points in 2016 while
7:29 just under three points in 2016 while
7:29 just under three points in 2016 while the second district is easily going to
7:31 the second district is easily going to
7:31 the second district is easily going to go to trump it is probably going to fall
7:33 go to trump it is probably going to fall
7:33 go to trump it is probably going to fall in that likely Republican range and the
7:36 in that likely Republican range and the
7:36 in that likely Republican range and the final state from the 8m poll closing is
7:39 final state from the 8m poll closing is
7:39 final state from the 8m poll closing is the most important state on the map
7:40 the most important state on the map
7:40 the most important state on the map Pennsylvania 19 electoral votes
7:42 Pennsylvania 19 electoral votes
7:43 Pennsylvania 19 electoral votes Democrats no longer have the advantage
7:44 Democrats no longer have the advantage
7:44 Democrats no longer have the advantage with Joe Biden who was actually born in
7:47 with Joe Biden who was actually born in
7:47 with Joe Biden who was actually born in Scranton Pennsylvania and that was one
7:48 Scranton Pennsylvania and that was one
7:48 Scranton Pennsylvania and that was one of the big reasons why he was able to
7:50 of the big reasons why he was able to
7:50 of the big reasons why he was able to win the state back in 2020 he carried it
7:53 win the state back in 2020 he carried it
7:53 win the state back in 2020 he carried it by onepoint margin but Trump actually
7:55 by onepoint margin but Trump actually
7:55 by onepoint margin but Trump actually did also win the Keystone State he won
7:57 did also win the Keystone State he won
7:57 did also win the Keystone State he won it in 2016 and he's on track to win it
7:59 it in 2016 and he's on track to win it
7:59 it in 2016 and he's on track to win it back in fact Pennsylvania is expected to
8:02 back in fact Pennsylvania is expected to
8:02 back in fact Pennsylvania is expected to be the most conservative out of all four
8:04 be the most conservative out of all four
8:04 be the most conservative out of all four of the upper rust Bel States and to
8:06 of the upper rust Bel States and to
8:06 of the upper rust Bel States and to honor map it is going to be lean in
8:08 honor map it is going to be lean in
8:08 honor map it is going to be lean in favor of the GOP before we continue we
8:11 favor of the GOP before we continue we
8:11 favor of the GOP before we continue we have a word from our sponsor getting
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8:17 with the mainstream media more biased
8:17 with the mainstream media more biased than it's ever been luckily there's a
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8:31 blind spot page you can find stories that are being ignored by the left or by
8:34 that are being ignored by the left or by
8:34 that are being ignored by the left or by the right let's take a look at this
8:35 the right let's take a look at this
8:35 the right let's take a look at this story for example about Tim wells's
8:37 story for example about Tim wells's
8:37 story for example about Tim wells's family showing support for Donald Trump
8:40 family showing support for Donald Trump
8:40 family showing support for Donald Trump we can see that this is completely being
8:42 we can see that this is completely being
8:42 we can see that this is completely being dismissed by sources on the left while
8:44 dismissed by sources on the left while
8:44 dismissed by sources on the left while only those on the right are Shining
8:46 only those on the right are Shining
8:46 only those on the right are Shining Light on this topic I especially love
8:48 Light on this topic I especially love
8:49 Light on this topic I especially love groud news's dedicated 2024 election
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9:10 use to get unlimited access to all
9:10 use to get unlimited access to all features I think Brown news is doing
9:12 features I think Brown news is doing
9:12 features I think Brown news is doing important work and I hope you'll check
9:14 important work and I hope you'll check
9:14 important work and I hope you'll check them out continuing on to the next poll
9:16 them out continuing on to the next poll
9:16 them out continuing on to the next poll closing time at 8:30 we have just one
9:18 closing time at 8:30 we have just one
9:18 closing time at 8:30 we have just one state and that will be Arkansas it is
9:20 state and that will be Arkansas it is
9:20 state and that will be Arkansas it is going to be safe for Donald Trump 30
9:22 going to be safe for Donald Trump 30
9:22 going to be safe for Donald Trump 30 minutes later though we have another big
9:24 minutes later though we have another big
9:24 minutes later though we have another big poll closing at 9900 p.m. basically
9:27 poll closing at 9900 p.m. basically
9:27 poll closing at 9900 p.m. basically we're filling in all the remaining
9:28 we're filling in all the remaining
9:28 we're filling in all the remaining states that have lagging behind States
9:30 states that have lagging behind States
9:30 states that have lagging behind States like New York Michigan and Louisiana a
9:33 like New York Michigan and Louisiana a
9:33 like New York Michigan and Louisiana a lot of them are going to be safe red
9:34 lot of them are going to be safe red
9:34 lot of them are going to be safe red though I'm going to fill those in very
9:36 though I'm going to fill those in very
9:36 though I'm going to fill those in very quickly first Louisiana Kansas all of
9:38 quickly first Louisiana Kansas all of
9:38 quickly first Louisiana Kansas all of Nebraska except the Second District
9:41 Nebraska except the Second District
9:41 Nebraska except the Second District South Dakota North Dakota and Wyoming
9:43 South Dakota North Dakota and Wyoming
9:43 South Dakota North Dakota and Wyoming they're all going to go to Trump by at
9:44 they're all going to go to Trump by at
9:44 they're all going to go to Trump by at least 15 points and honestly in these
9:46 least 15 points and honestly in these
9:46 least 15 points and honestly in these states Trump's going to win them by 2030
9:48 states Trump's going to win them by 2030
9:48 states Trump's going to win them by 2030 points and it wouldn't even be
9:50 points and it wouldn't even be
9:50 points and it wouldn't even be surprising at all now we're going to
9:52 surprising at all now we're going to
9:52 surprising at all now we're going to start off with New York in terms of the
9:54 start off with New York in terms of the
9:54 start off with New York in terms of the haris states at this hour 28 electoral
9:57 haris states at this hour 28 electoral
9:57 haris states at this hour 28 electoral votes from the Empire State this is a
9:59 votes from the Empire State this is a
9:59 votes from the Empire State this is a state she has to win and she is probably
10:00 state she has to win and she is probably
10:00 state she has to win and she is probably going to win it just not nearly by the
10:03 going to win it just not nearly by the
10:03 going to win it just not nearly by the margin that Biden carried it by four
10:05 margin that Biden carried it by four
10:05 margin that Biden carried it by four years ago New York went to the incom
10:07 years ago New York went to the incom
10:07 years ago New York went to the incom president by 23 points in 2020 but due
10:10 president by 23 points in 2020 but due
10:10 president by 23 points in 2020 but due to poor Democratic Leadership in the
10:11 to poor Democratic Leadership in the
10:11 to poor Democratic Leadership in the state in recent years it simply isn't as
10:14 state in recent years it simply isn't as
10:14 state in recent years it simply isn't as liberal as it used to of course with
10:15 liberal as it used to of course with
10:15 liberal as it used to of course with Eric Adams Kathy hokel Andrew CUO all
10:18 Eric Adams Kathy hokel Andrew CUO all
10:18 Eric Adams Kathy hokel Andrew CUO all very unpopular and that is why New York
10:20 very unpopular and that is why New York
10:20 very unpopular and that is why New York is likely blue today this will be the
10:22 is likely blue today this will be the
10:22 is likely blue today this will be the first time a Democrat doesn't win the
10:25 first time a Democrat doesn't win the
10:25 first time a Democrat doesn't win the state by at least 15 points since
10:27 state by at least 15 points since
10:27 state by at least 15 points since Michael duckus in 19 1988 we also have
10:31 Michael duckus in 19 1988 we also have
10:31 Michael duckus in 19 1988 we also have Colorado 10 electoral votes this is
10:33 Colorado 10 electoral votes this is
10:33 Colorado 10 electoral votes this is going to be the second likely State at
10:36 going to be the second likely State at
10:36 going to be the second likely State at this hour Bing carried it by nearly 14
10:38 this hour Bing carried it by nearly 14
10:38 this hour Bing carried it by nearly 14 points in the last selection Harris can
10:40 points in the last selection Harris can
10:40 points in the last selection Harris can probably win it by somewhere around 7 to
10:42 probably win it by somewhere around 7 to
10:42 probably win it by somewhere around 7 to 10 she is still definitely the favorite
10:44 10 she is still definitely the favorite
10:44 10 she is still definitely the favorite but Bing's margin is basically going to
10:46 but Bing's margin is basically going to
10:46 but Bing's margin is basically going to be cut in half this time around moving
10:48 be cut in half this time around moving
10:48 be cut in half this time around moving on to our lean blue States we have
10:50 on to our lean blue States we have
10:50 on to our lean blue States we have neighboring New Mexico five electoral
10:53 neighboring New Mexico five electoral
10:53 neighboring New Mexico five electoral votes KLA Harris is going to do a lot
10:55 votes KLA Harris is going to do a lot
10:55 votes KLA Harris is going to do a lot worse than Joe Biden here Biden carried
10:57 worse than Joe Biden here Biden carried
10:57 worse than Joe Biden here Biden carried it by 11 points Harris can probably win
10:59 it by 11 points Harris can probably win
10:59 it by 11 points Harris can probably win by five to 7 as Hispanic voters continue
11:01 by five to 7 as Hispanic voters continue
11:01 by five to 7 as Hispanic voters continue to shift to the right and with New
11:04 to shift to the right and with New
11:04 to shift to the right and with New Mexico being the only state in the
11:05 Mexico being the only state in the
11:05 Mexico being the only state in the country with a Hispanic majority
11:07 country with a Hispanic majority
11:07 country with a Hispanic majority electorate the Republicans are only
11:09 electorate the Republicans are only
11:09 electorate the Republicans are only going to be doing better and better in
11:11 going to be doing better and better in
11:11 going to be doing better and better in this state it's a state that shifted a
11:13 this state it's a state that shifted a
11:13 this state it's a state that shifted a lot to the left from 2004 until today
11:16 lot to the left from 2004 until today
11:16 lot to the left from 2004 until today but it's going to reverse that Trend and
11:18 but it's going to reverse that Trend and
11:18 but it's going to reverse that Trend and move in favor of the GOP in the next few
11:21 move in favor of the GOP in the next few
11:21 move in favor of the GOP in the next few decades moving up to the Midwest we have
11:23 decades moving up to the Midwest we have
11:23 decades moving up to the Midwest we have Tim wales's home state of Minnesota
11:26 Tim wales's home state of Minnesota
11:26 Tim wales's home state of Minnesota there's been a lot of controversy about
11:27 there's been a lot of controversy about
11:27 there's been a lot of controversy about his family not supporting him obviously
11:30 his family not supporting him obviously
11:30 his family not supporting him obviously Tim Walls is still a popular governor in
11:32 Tim Walls is still a popular governor in
11:32 Tim Walls is still a popular governor in his home state and KLA Harris did avoid
11:35 his home state and KLA Harris did avoid
11:35 his home state and KLA Harris did avoid Disaster by choosing him because if Joe
11:36 Disaster by choosing him because if Joe
11:36 Disaster by choosing him because if Joe Biden had stayed on the ticket Trump
11:38 Biden had stayed on the ticket Trump
11:39 Biden had stayed on the ticket Trump probably would have carried this state a
11:40 probably would have carried this state a
11:40 probably would have carried this state a state that no Republican has won since
11:42 state that no Republican has won since
11:42 state that no Republican has won since 1972 symbolically it would have been a
11:45 1972 symbolically it would have been a
11:45 1972 symbolically it would have been a huge loss for the Democratic party and
11:47 huge loss for the Democratic party and
11:47 huge loss for the Democratic party and even if Harris didn't choose walls and
11:49 even if Harris didn't choose walls and
11:49 even if Harris didn't choose walls and stayed in the race and replace Joe Biden
11:51 stayed in the race and replace Joe Biden
11:51 stayed in the race and replace Joe Biden it is still much more likely that Trump
11:53 it is still much more likely that Trump
11:53 it is still much more likely that Trump could have actually won Minnesota
11:56 could have actually won Minnesota
11:56 could have actually won Minnesota because looking at the polling average
11:58 because looking at the polling average
11:58 because looking at the polling average Harris is barely ahead right now she
11:59 Harris is barely ahead right now she
11:59 Harris is barely ahead right now she leads by 3 to Five Points when the
12:01 leads by 3 to Five Points when the
12:01 leads by 3 to Five Points when the literal governor of the state is on the
12:03 literal governor of the state is on the
12:03 literal governor of the state is on the ticket when Joe Biden was still running
12:05 ticket when Joe Biden was still running
12:05 ticket when Joe Biden was still running he was losing in the final polls
12:07 he was losing in the final polls
12:07 he was losing in the final polls released between him and the former
12:09 released between him and the former
12:09 released between him and the former president and so right now Harris does
12:11 president and so right now Harris does
12:11 president and so right now Harris does have a slight lead in Minnesota but
12:13 have a slight lead in Minnesota but
12:13 have a slight lead in Minnesota but honestly it's a state that shouldn't
12:14 honestly it's a state that shouldn't
12:14 honestly it's a state that shouldn't even be this competitive she has to win
12:16 even be this competitive she has to win
12:16 even be this competitive she has to win it if Minnesota is close you can
12:18 it if Minnesota is close you can
12:18 it if Minnesota is close you can basically tell at that point that this
12:19 basically tell at that point that this
12:19 basically tell at that point that this election is going to go in favor of
12:21 election is going to go in favor of
12:21 election is going to go in favor of Donald Trump the second district of
12:23 Donald Trump the second district of
12:23 Donald Trump the second district of Nebraska is also going to be lean blue
12:25 Nebraska is also going to be lean blue
12:25 Nebraska is also going to be lean blue Joe Biden won it by a seven-point margin
12:28 Joe Biden won it by a seven-point margin
12:28 Joe Biden won it by a seven-point margin in 201 Harris is going to win it by a
12:30 in 201 Harris is going to win it by a
12:30 in 201 Harris is going to win it by a lesser margin but as of right now
12:32 lesser margin but as of right now
12:32 lesser margin but as of right now Democrats are favored in the district
12:34 Democrats are favored in the district
12:34 Democrats are favored in the district we're left with three states all of them
12:36 we're left with three states all of them
12:36 we're left with three states all of them very important all of them are among the
12:38 very important all of them are among the
12:38 very important all of them are among the seven most competitive states on the
12:40 seven most competitive states on the
12:40 seven most competitive states on the country which include Wisconsin Michigan
12:42 country which include Wisconsin Michigan
12:42 country which include Wisconsin Michigan and Arizona but also Pennsylvania North
12:44 and Arizona but also Pennsylvania North
12:44 and Arizona but also Pennsylvania North Carolina Georgia and Nevada it's really
12:46 Carolina Georgia and Nevada it's really
12:46 Carolina Georgia and Nevada it's really those seven states that are going to
12:47 those seven states that are going to
12:47 those seven states that are going to matter the most Arizona is going to go
12:49 matter the most Arizona is going to go
12:49 matter the most Arizona is going to go red just like Georgia Joe Biden barely
12:51 red just like Georgia Joe Biden barely
12:51 red just like Georgia Joe Biden barely won it in 2020 it was the first time a
12:53 won it in 2020 it was the first time a
12:53 won it in 2020 it was the first time a Democrat won it in over 20 years same
12:56 Democrat won it in over 20 years same
12:56 Democrat won it in over 20 years same thing in Georgia except Arizona last one
12:58 thing in Georgia except Arizona last one
12:58 thing in Georgia except Arizona last one blue in 19 96 not 1992 now again Trump
13:02 blue in 19 96 not 1992 now again Trump
13:02 blue in 19 96 not 1992 now again Trump doesn't need to do that much to win this
13:03 doesn't need to do that much to win this
13:04 doesn't need to do that much to win this state back KL Harris is not very popular
13:06 state back KL Harris is not very popular
13:06 state back KL Harris is not very popular in Arizona and she is simply not going
13:09 in Arizona and she is simply not going
13:09 in Arizona and she is simply not going to win it as of right now Donald Trump
13:11 to win it as of right now Donald Trump
13:11 to win it as of right now Donald Trump is the clear favorite he's doing very
13:12 is the clear favorite he's doing very
13:12 is the clear favorite he's doing very well in the polls in fact Trump is doing
13:14 well in the polls in fact Trump is doing
13:14 well in the polls in fact Trump is doing better in the polling in Arizona than in
13:16 better in the polling in Arizona than in
13:16 better in the polling in Arizona than in States like Pennsylvania North Carolina
13:18 States like Pennsylvania North Carolina
13:18 States like Pennsylvania North Carolina and even Georgia moving up to the
13:20 and even Georgia moving up to the
13:20 and even Georgia moving up to the Midwest though Wisconsin and Michigan
13:23 Midwest though Wisconsin and Michigan
13:23 Midwest though Wisconsin and Michigan these are both going to be very very
13:24 these are both going to be very very
13:24 these are both going to be very very close I would say at this point these
13:26 close I would say at this point these
13:26 close I would say at this point these are the two closest states on the map
13:29 are the two closest states on the map
13:29 are the two closest states on the map and so KLA Harris is going to benefit in
13:31 and so KLA Harris is going to benefit in
13:31 and so KLA Harris is going to benefit in Wisconsin with Tim Walls being the
13:33 Wisconsin with Tim Walls being the
13:33 Wisconsin with Tim Walls being the governor of Minnesota and Wisconsin
13:35 governor of Minnesota and Wisconsin
13:35 governor of Minnesota and Wisconsin being its neighboring state and so that
13:37 being its neighboring state and so that
13:37 being its neighboring state and so that is why it's probably going to vote to
13:38 is why it's probably going to vote to
13:39 is why it's probably going to vote to the left of Pennsylvania even though
13:40 the left of Pennsylvania even though
13:40 the left of Pennsylvania even though typically Wisconsin is the most
13:42 typically Wisconsin is the most
13:42 typically Wisconsin is the most conservative out of the three blue wall
13:44 conservative out of the three blue wall
13:44 conservative out of the three blue wall States and Wisconsin is going to be tilt
13:46 States and Wisconsin is going to be tilt
13:46 States and Wisconsin is going to be tilt red and so will Michigan Michigan will
13:49 red and so will Michigan Michigan will
13:49 red and so will Michigan Michigan will get that same rating both of these
13:51 get that same rating both of these
13:51 get that same rating both of these states can go to Donald Trump he won
13:52 states can go to Donald Trump he won
13:52 states can go to Donald Trump he won them in 2016 by narrow margins he's
13:55 them in 2016 by narrow margins he's
13:55 them in 2016 by narrow margins he's probably going to do it again in 2024
13:57 probably going to do it again in 2024
13:57 probably going to do it again in 2024 Joe Biden when he ran under very good
13:59 Joe Biden when he ran under very good
13:59 Joe Biden when he ran under very good circumstances for Democrats the economy
14:01 circumstances for Democrats the economy
14:01 circumstances for Democrats the economy wasn't doing great we were in lockdown
14:03 wasn't doing great we were in lockdown
14:03 wasn't doing great we were in lockdown due to covid Biden barely won Wisconsin
14:05 due to covid Biden barely won Wisconsin
14:05 due to covid Biden barely won Wisconsin in fact Biden did worse in Wisconsin
14:07 in fact Biden did worse in Wisconsin
14:07 in fact Biden did worse in Wisconsin then Trump did four years prior and in
14:10 then Trump did four years prior and in
14:10 then Trump did four years prior and in Michigan yes Biden did well but as of
14:12 Michigan yes Biden did well but as of
14:12 Michigan yes Biden did well but as of right now it doesn't seem like Harris is
14:14 right now it doesn't seem like Harris is
14:14 right now it doesn't seem like Harris is going to do better in Michigan than she
14:16 going to do better in Michigan than she
14:16 going to do better in Michigan than she is in Wisconsin so both of these states
14:18 is in Wisconsin so both of these states
14:18 is in Wisconsin so both of these states are going to very narrowly go to the
14:20 are going to very narrowly go to the
14:20 are going to very narrowly go to the former president at 10 p.m. we have
14:22 former president at 10 p.m. we have
14:22 former president at 10 p.m. we have polls closing in four states two of them
14:24 polls closing in four states two of them
14:24 polls closing in four states two of them are going to be safe red obviously
14:26 are going to be safe red obviously
14:26 are going to be safe red obviously they're Montana in Utah while Iowa is
14:28 they're Montana in Utah while Iowa is
14:28 they're Montana in Utah while Iowa is going to be likely in favor of the
14:30 going to be likely in favor of the
14:30 going to be likely in favor of the former president it's voted very similar
14:32 former president it's voted very similar
14:32 former president it's voted very similar to Ohio in the last few elections I mean
14:34 to Ohio in the last few elections I mean
14:34 to Ohio in the last few elections I mean 2012 it goes to Obama by a close margin
14:37 2012 it goes to Obama by a close margin
14:37 2012 it goes to Obama by a close margin 2016 Trump flips it wins it by nearly
14:40 2016 Trump flips it wins it by nearly
14:40 2016 Trump flips it wins it by nearly double digits shift the state over 10
14:42 double digits shift the state over 10
14:42 double digits shift the state over 10 points to the right and then in 2020
14:44 points to the right and then in 2020
14:44 points to the right and then in 2020 Iowa votes for Trump Again by a very
14:46 Iowa votes for Trump Again by a very
14:46 Iowa votes for Trump Again by a very similar margin almost the exact same
14:48 similar margin almost the exact same
14:48 similar margin almost the exact same thing that happened in Ohio so it's
14:50 thing that happened in Ohio so it's
14:50 thing that happened in Ohio so it's going to be likely red while Nevada is
14:52 going to be likely red while Nevada is
14:52 going to be likely red while Nevada is also going to go slightly in favor of
14:54 also going to go slightly in favor of
14:54 also going to go slightly in favor of Donald Trump although this time this is
14:56 Donald Trump although this time this is
14:56 Donald Trump although this time this is the state Trump has never won before he
14:58 the state Trump has never won before he
14:58 the state Trump has never won before he lost it in 201 20 but he also lost in
15:00 lost it in 201 20 but he also lost in
15:00 lost it in 201 20 but he also lost in 2016 when he was able to win the three
15:03 2016 when he was able to win the three
15:03 2016 when he was able to win the three blue wall States as well as Arizona and
15:04 blue wall States as well as Arizona and
15:04 blue wall States as well as Arizona and Georgia he did not win Nevada Nevada
15:07 Georgia he did not win Nevada Nevada
15:07 Georgia he did not win Nevada Nevada went to Clinton and Biden by the exact
15:09 went to Clinton and Biden by the exact
15:09 went to Clinton and Biden by the exact same 2.4% margin but today Nevada is
15:12 same 2.4% margin but today Nevada is
15:12 same 2.4% margin but today Nevada is Shifting to the right Republicans have a
15:14 Shifting to the right Republicans have a
15:14 Shifting to the right Republicans have a better chance than ever at taking back a
15:16 better chance than ever at taking back a
15:16 better chance than ever at taking back a state they haven't won since 2004 and of
15:19 state they haven't won since 2004 and of
15:19 state they haven't won since 2004 and of course the state recently elected a
15:20 course the state recently elected a
15:20 course the state recently elected a republican governor in 2022 when it
15:23 republican governor in 2022 when it
15:23 republican governor in 2022 when it chose Joe Lombardo over the incoming
15:25 chose Joe Lombardo over the incoming
15:25 chose Joe Lombardo over the incoming Democrat Steve cisac and so the silver
15:27 Democrat Steve cisac and so the silver
15:27 Democrat Steve cisac and so the silver state is going to be Le red on our map
15:30 state is going to be Le red on our map
15:30 state is going to be Le red on our map and this will be the last lead state but
15:32 and this will be the last lead state but
15:32 and this will be the last lead state but it will go in favor of the former
15:34 it will go in favor of the former
15:34 it will go in favor of the former president nonetheless an hour later at
15:36 president nonetheless an hour later at
15:36 president nonetheless an hour later at 11 KLA Harris is going to be called the
15:38 11 KLA Harris is going to be called the
15:38 11 KLA Harris is going to be called the winner in California Washington and
15:41 winner in California Washington and
15:41 winner in California Washington and Oregon these two states fundamentally
15:43 Oregon these two states fundamentally
15:43 Oregon these two states fundamentally are not as liberal as the Golden State
15:45 are not as liberal as the Golden State
15:45 are not as liberal as the Golden State so it's going to be a little bit closer
15:46 so it's going to be a little bit closer
15:46 so it's going to be a little bit closer while Idaho is obviously going to go to
15:48 while Idaho is obviously going to go to
15:48 while Idaho is obviously going to go to Donald Trump and finally at 1:00 a.m.
15:51 Donald Trump and finally at 1:00 a.m.
15:51 Donald Trump and finally at 1:00 a.m. eastern time Alaska is going to go to
15:53 eastern time Alaska is going to go to
15:53 eastern time Alaska is going to go to the former president and Hawaii to the
15:55 the former president and Hawaii to the
15:55 the former president and Hawaii to the vice president and so this will give
15:57 vice president and so this will give
15:57 vice president and so this will give Donald Trump 312 electoral votes to KLA
16:00 Donald Trump 312 electoral votes to KLA
16:00 Donald Trump 312 electoral votes to KLA Harris's 226 2 months to go until the
16:03 Harris's 226 2 months to go until the
16:03 Harris's 226 2 months to go until the election in November and right now I
16:05 election in November and right now I
16:05 election in November and right now I have the former president winning by a
16:07 have the former president winning by a
16:07 have the former president winning by a larger margin than he won by eight years
16:09 larger margin than he won by eight years
16:10 larger margin than he won by eight years ago Trump is the favorite but we'll see
16:12 ago Trump is the favorite but we'll see
16:12 ago Trump is the favorite but we'll see what happens in the coming months thank
16:14 what happens in the coming months thank
16:14 what happens in the coming months thank you guys so much for watching make sure
16:15 you guys so much for watching make sure
16:16 you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe right now
16:18 you like comment and subscribe right now
16:18 you like comment and subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to
16:19 for more content like this leading up to
16:19 for more content like this leading up to the election in November and join my
16:21 the election in November and join my
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