Kalshi Criminally Indicted

0:00 A legal loophole worth billions is about to be tested in court.

0:03 On March 17th, the state of Arizona filed criminal charges against

0:06 the online prediction market Kalshi for allegedly selling bets on sports games,

0:10 upcoming elections, [music] and other exciting contests of skill and chance

0:13 like will Elon Musk make it to the Super Bowl?

0:16 We allege that Kalshi, which is a prediction market operator,

0:21 is violating Arizona gaming law.

0:23 Meanwhile, insider trading on these platforms is spiraling out of control.

0:27 An editor for Mr.

0:27 Beast traded about $4,000 worth of perfectly timed

0:31 bets on Kalshi related to an unreleased Beast video.

0:34 He got caught and referred to the feds for criminal insider trading.

0:37 And then there's this anonymous person on Kalshi's main competitor, Polymarket,

0:41 who somehow knew that Trump was going

0:43 to invade Venezuela hours before Trump ordered the strike.

0:46 They walked away with over $400,000 in profit from a $32,000 long shot bet.

0:52 There's a paradox here.

0:53 Insider trading applies to securities, but these are bets, which is gambling.

0:57 So, what are prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket selling?

1:00 Bets or securities?

1:02 Gambling or investing?

1:03 The answer is yes.

1:06 That's the loophole that's making Kalshi billions.

1:08 One that challenges the bedrock tension in the US

1:10 Constitution between state's rights and federal supremacy.

1:14 And it's heading for a big showdown in court.

1:16 Picture this.

1:17 You're a farmer and you're about to spend every spare dollar

1:20 you have to plant 1,000 bushels of corn in the spring.

1:23 The current market price of corn is $5 a bushel,

1:25 and if that price holds, you'll make a humble profit.

1:28 But a lot can happen between now and harvest season.

1:30 So, you write up a contract with your usual buyer.

1:33 Hey, let's agree that come this fall,

1:34 whoever holds this contract will buy 1,000 bushels from me at $5 a bushel.

1:39 I'll also pay you a little fee up front for your troubles.

1:42 Done deal.

1:43 Cool.

1:44 You've just protected yourself from market swings ruining your life

1:47 at the cost of not getting a windfall if prices skyrocket.

1:51 It's not a bad deal.

1:52 And if your buyer wants to speculate,

1:54 he can now sell that contract to someone else

1:56 who can sell it to someone else and so on.

1:58 When harvest season finally comes,

2:00 somebody is obligated to buy that corn for $5 a bushel,

2:03 and if current market prices are above $5, they're thrilled.

2:06 If under, not so much.

2:08 This is the fundamental principle of a futures contract,

2:11 and they're essential securities for the market

2:13 health of mass-produced commodities like corn, wheat, oil, and orange juice.

2:17 The cold weather has apparently not affected the orange harvest.

2:22 But they're also kind of a zero-sum game.

2:24 Whenever one side of the contract wins, the other side kind of loses.

2:27 And it's worth noting that futures have a funny way

2:29 of making traders insanely rich or insanely poor very quickly.

2:34 The trading of futures contracts is regulated at the federal

2:36 level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or CFTC.

2:40 This ensures that only registered brokers who

2:42 know what they're doing, at least on paper,

2:44 can trade on the future markets, and that everyone plays by the same rules,

2:48 no matter what state they live in.

2:50 Enter Kalshi.

2:51 Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Loura,

2:55 Kalshi purports to be a marketplace for a specific type of a future called

2:59 an event contract that simplifies things

3:02 into a binary choice about a future event.

3:04 So, if you're a farmer, there's no need to negotiate a future

3:06 purchase price with the guy buying your goods.

3:09 Instead, you just hedge your risk with a contract

3:11 against the price of corn falling below $5 a bushel.

3:14 Okay, for the three of you out there that passed their Series 7 exam,

3:17 event contracts are technically swaps,

3:19 not futures, but it's more straightforward to explain

3:22 them in the context of commodities futures.

3:24 For the rest of you, if you want the CliffNotes on swaps and how

3:27 credit default swaps screwed over the world in 2008,

3:29 consult your local Margot Robbie in a bathtub.

3:32 Think So, with this network,

3:35 Kalshi is a place where traders of all sizes can go and take out

3:38 contracts from other traders on stuff that may or may not happen in the future.

3:41 Like, will Kamala Harris attend Trump's inauguration?

3:44 Or will an announcer at the Super Bowl utter the delicate words tush push?

3:48 Kind of feels like gambling, though.

3:50 Well, Kalshi and their lawyers argue that their event contracts

3:52 are bonafide securities just like any common commodities futures contracts.

3:56 The fact that the contracts may look like a fun way

3:59 to gamble at home for the whole

4:00 family is irrelevant to statutory classification.

4:03 In other words, betting that Taylor Swift will take a spill

4:06 on stage may seem like the silly randomness you find in gambling halls,

4:09 but it could be a relevant hedge for anyone invested in her record label.

4:13 And so in November 2020,

4:15 Kalshi broke through the regulatory guardrails and got a federal

4:18 designation from the CFTC as a designated contract market or DCM.

4:22 This was huge for Kalshi because DCMs are retail operations.

4:26 You don't have to be a registered broker to access them and Kalshi

4:30 can self-certify their contracts under 7

4:32 USC 7A tact 2 without regulatory approval.

4:36 Their competitor Polymarket didn't get the same DCM designation from the CFTC.

4:41 We're going to come back to them later.

4:42 So for several years,

4:43 Kalshi was a niche product for financial enthusiasts and political obsessives.

4:47 Then the 2024 election happened.

4:49 One of the most popular event contracts of all time for the site

4:53 was who is going to win the 2024 election, Trump or Harris?

4:56 Kalshi's crowdsource prediction was spot-on.

4:59 Legacy pollsters were way off.

5:00 People who bet on Trump made money and Kalshi exploded in popularity.

5:05 By December 2025, more than 12 billion had

5:07 been traded on Kalshi and its main competitor Polymarket.

5:10 Kalshi became the official prediction market partner of CNN and CNBC.

5:14 The AP is now licensing its election data to Kalshi and more

5:18 than 1 billion dollars was wagered on the Super Bowl alone.

5:22 And fascinatingly, the company now markets itself as the first

5:25 app for legal sports betting in the United States.

5:27 By some estimates, sports-related markets now count

5:30 for roughly 80% of Kalshi's trading volume.

5:33 But you're never going to find the words like betting, wager,

5:36 gambling, or sports book in their literature

5:38 because according to Kalshi's lawyers,

5:40 they are nothing like their other major competitor,

5:42 the sinful sports gambling app FanDuel.

5:45 Your favorite edge-cutting journalist at Good Work explains why.

5:49 On FanDuel, you can gamble on who will win

5:52 a game between the New York Knicks and the Toronto Raptors.

5:55 Whereas on Kalshi, you can mark yes or no [laughter]

6:01 on who will win a game between Toronto and New York K.

6:07 Do we see what I'm talking about?

6:08 This one is gambling and this one is buying or selling futures contracts

6:13 that give us a better perspective on who is more likely to win,

6:16 either Toronto or New York K.

6:19 Those are different things.

6:20 Case closed.

6:21 Comedy aside, this is Kalshi's actual position.

6:25 They're not a sports book, they're an exchange.

6:27 Users don't make wagers, they place trades.

6:30 It's not betting, you guys.

6:31 Just ask the 18-year-old college students who won or lost

6:33 hundreds of millions on March Madness outcomes last weekend.

6:36 I'm sure they'll all refer to Kalshi as the regulated marketplace

6:40 where I place trades on the outcome of the big game.

6:42 This game of newspeak wordplay seems silly,

6:44 but Kalshi's future to legally operate in the United States depends on it.

6:48 Because if they truly are a securities marketplace,

6:50 they're regulated by federal law.

6:52 The guys at the top have already given Kalshi their royal blessing.

6:55 Trump appointed his guy to run the CFTC and he withdrew a Biden-era rules

6:59 change that would have prohibited sports

7:01 and political event contract trades on prediction markets.

7:04 Oh, and last year, after Daddy took office, Don Jr.

7:07 was conveniently appointed as a strategic advisor to Kalshi

7:10 and a few months later invested an eight-figure sum into Polymarket.

7:13 And he closed the year out

7:14 by announcing truth prediction markets on Truth Social.

7:17 Do with that what you will.

7:19 But if Kalshi is truly just a sports book wearing a securities

7:22 market skin suit and all this is just gambling by a different name,

7:25 then states have the right to regulate it, not the federal government.

7:28 And if Kalshi is not following state statutes, that could be a criminal offense.

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9:03 The state of Arizona sees Kalshi like this: If

9:06 a person puts money on the outcome of a basketball game,

9:08 they either win or lose depending on which team wins the game.

9:11 And then the platform takes a fee.

9:13 Arizona's top cop said, "Yeah, no.

9:15 This is just gambling with extra steps.

9:18 And since any company taking sports bets has to have a state license,

9:21 Kalshi broke state law." This legal action didn't come out of nowhere.

9:24 For the past few years, Kalshi has been on a litigation warpath,

9:28 filing preemptive lawsuits against states like Arizona,

9:30 Utah, and Iowa, demanding that federal judges

9:33 block these states from enforcing their gambling laws.

9:35 Even though nothing was blocking Kalshi from selling

9:38 their event contracts in these states at the time.

9:40 We went through all the filings we could find, but there are likely more.

9:44 Pause now if you want to read them.

9:45 This is a Cobra Kai litigation strategy.

9:47 Strike first, strike hard, no mercy.

9:50 Or you could just call it a dick move.

9:51 Arizona's criminal charges were essentially a counter escalation.

9:54 Arizona's criminal filing looks simple at first.

9:57 Kalshi allegedly took bets from Arizona users between December 2025 and March

10:01 2026 without a state license and without registering as a foreign LLC.

10:05 The actual transactions are tiny.

10:07 A $30 NFL wager, a series of $1 college basketball bets,

10:11 a $1 prop bet on whether Elon Musk would attend the Super Bowl,

10:14 small parlays, and a handful of political wagers.

10:16 But the important thing is not the dollar amounts.

10:18 It's that Arizona is charging two legally distinct categories of conduct.

10:22 First, there are the ordinary betting and wagering counts.

10:25 These are the sports and other non-election markets.

10:27 Arizona's theory is straightforward.

10:29 Kalshi was taking wagers in Arizona without

10:31 the kind of state authorization Arizona gambling laws require.

10:34 That makes these 16 counts at their core a regulatory dispute.

10:38 Kalshi's response is exactly what you'd expect.

10:40 These are not wagers, they're federally regulated event contracts traded

10:44 on a federally designated contract market or DCM.

10:47 This sets up a classic preemption fight.

10:49 Under the supremacy clause of the Constitution,

10:51 federal law overrules or preempts state law in three main ways.

10:55 When Congress expressly says so,

10:57 when federal regulation is so comprehensive that it is said to occupy the field,

11:01 or when state law conflicts with federal law.

11:03 The Supreme Court has articulated these principles in cases like Arizona v.

11:06 United States and Hines v.

11:08 Davidowitz.

11:09 We also may have fought a Civil War over it when people who

11:11 wanted to keep owning people took issue with just a fear of federal preemption.

11:16 But the courts have also emphasized that courts should be

11:18 cautious about finding preemption in areas

11:20 traditionally regulated by the states.

11:23 The tension between the need for a uniform federal system and the presumption

11:26 that states retain their historic police powers

11:28 is exactly what this case is about.

11:30 But that entire preemption framework assumes

11:33 we're dealing with ordinary gambling regulation.

11:35 Arizona's complaint goes further.

11:36 It includes election wagering counts tied to bets in the 2028 presidential race,

11:41 Arizona's 2026 gubernatorial election,

11:43 and the Republican primary and the Secretary of State race.

11:46 And these counts operate differently.

11:48 Here, Arizona isn't arguing Kalshi failed to get licensed,

11:51 it's arguing licensing is irrelevant.

11:53 Under Arizona law, election wagering isn't regulated, it's banned.

11:57 And that distinction matters because Kalshi's best defense is preemption.

12:01 They've tried this numerous times on their Cobra

12:03 Kai courtroom tour to varying degrees of success.

12:06 Again, pause if you want to read it.

12:07 But election wagering is a little harder to fit into that frame.

12:11 Arizona's election betting prohibition is not a licensing rule,

12:14 it's written like a substantive ban

12:16 tied to the integrity of elections themselves.

12:18 So, even if Kalshi can plausibly argue that Arizona

12:21 cannot treat federally regulated sports event contracts as illegal gambling,

12:25 that does not automatically answer whether Arizona

12:27 can ban wagers on its own elections.

12:30 So, the charging document is not just one big is Kalshi gambling case,

12:33 it's really two cases nested together.

12:35 One about who regulates sports-style event contracts,

12:38 and the other about whether a state can

12:40 forbid election betting even on a federally regulated platform.

12:44 To see why, you have to look more closely at Arizona's election wagering law.

12:48 It states, quote, "A person who knowingly makes, offers,

12:51 or accepts a bet or wager upon any contingency whatever arising out

12:54 of such election is guilty of a class two misdemeanor." In substance,

12:58 it makes it unlawful for any person to knowingly engage in, accept,

13:01 or facilitate bets on the outcome of any elections, federal, state, or local.

13:06 There is no licensing pathway, no exception for registered operators,

13:09 and no carve-out for financial instruments or prediction markets.

13:12 This isn't some Johnny-come-lately statute meant to hurt Trump and his allies.

13:16 Arizona's had laws along these lines since statehood.

13:18 Laws banning betting on elections have deep roots in American

13:21 legal history dating back to the 19th and early 20th centuries,

13:24 when states moved to curb practices that were

13:26 seen as corrupting or distorting democratic processes.

13:29 Arizona's version was part of a broader

13:31 effort to insulate elections from outside influence.

13:33 Where the statute lives reinforces that point.

13:36 It sits in title 16, which is Arizona's election code.

13:39 That signals that the state does not view election wagering

13:42 as just another form of gambling subject to licensing and oversight.

13:45 Instead, it treats it as conduct

13:47 that threatens the legitimacy of elections themselves.

13:49 In other words, Arizona says,

13:51 you cannot turn elections into a betting market at all.

13:54 And Arizona's argument has strong constitutional support.

13:56 Constitution gives states the power to regulate the time,

13:59 place, and manner of elections.

14:00 Courts have traditionally treated election law

14:02 as a core area of state sovereignty.

14:05 As of this recording,

14:05 the Supreme Court is hearing oral arguments for the case Watson v.

14:08 Republican National Committee.

14:09 It seems likely that the conservative majority will rule

14:12 that mail-in ballots are invalid unless received by election day.

14:15 Meanwhile, Donald Trump is pounding the bully

14:17 pulpit for Congress to pass the SAVE Act,

14:19 which would effectively federalize elections.

14:22 It'll guarantee the midterms.

14:24 It'll guarantee the midterms.

14:26 If you don't get it, big trouble.

14:29 The consequences of federal preemption of state

14:31 law to ban gambling on elections is unclear,

14:33 but it demonstrates a willingness of the judiciary and legislative branch

14:36 to encroach on what has traditionally been seen as state sovereignty.

14:40 This is all music to Kalshi's ears.

14:42 Arizona law defines gambling as risking anything of value on a future

14:45 uncertain event for the opportunity to benefit from games of chance or skill,

14:49 but it also carves out an exception

14:50 for legitimate financial transactions like commodities trading.

14:53 Kalshi has built to live inside that exception.

14:56 Their defense is straightforward.

14:58 Arizona is mistaking this as a classification

15:00 problem when it's actually a characterization problem.

15:03 Without the carve out, the statute gobbles up futures trading.

15:06 The statute's bonafide transactions aren't unique from wagers.

15:10 Arizona thus runs into the supremacy clause

15:12 because they're calling what Kalshi does porn, and Kalshi is calling it art.

15:16 Currently, there's no categorical difference between wager and event contracts.

15:20 So, it doesn't matter if Arizona thinks betting on horses

15:23 and college hoops is different from betting on local and national elections.

15:26 Kalshi is going to argue that allowing states

15:28 to regulate event contracts would fracture a nationally regulated market,

15:31 creating exactly the kind of patchwork markets the Commodity

15:34 Exchange Act and the CFTC are meant to prevent.

15:37 Big Daddy federalism says you can't, and even if you could, you shouldn't.

15:40 The election wagering counts are a harder nut to crack,

15:43 but Kalshi's argument does not just disappear.

15:45 Here, Kalshi would still argue preemption, but with a different emphasis.

15:49 Arizona can't criminalize transactions that happen on a federally regulated

15:52 exchange simply because of the subject matter of the contract.

15:56 Under the Trump administration,

15:57 the CFTC permits markets tied to political outcomes,

16:00 and so a state cannot override that determination

16:03 by declaring those same contracts illegal within its borders.

16:06 This is the third part of the supremacy clause preempting state law.

16:10 The Constitution says that Washington automatically wins every game of rock,

16:14 paper, federalism with the states.

16:16 Good old rock.

16:17 At the same time, Kalshi would likely try to reframe

16:19 the state's election integrity rationale

16:21 as functionally indistinguishable from ordinary gambling regulation.

16:24 The state may call this an election law, but from Kalshi's perspective,

16:28 it's still an attempt to prohibit a class

16:30 of financial contracts based on their underlying event.

16:33 And if that's true, then the same preemption principles should apply.

16:36 And it's easy to see the underlying moral argument.

16:39 Elections have big consequences.

16:41 Kalshi is offering a product that allows users to effectively take

16:44 out financial insurance policies if any given election doesn't go their way.

16:48 But the challenge for Kalshi is that this argument asks the court to treat

16:51 a state's regulation of its own elections

16:53 as no different from its regulation of sportsbooks.

16:56 That's legally plausible, especially now that the Supreme Court appears

16:59 to be open to rewriting state election laws, but it's much harder to pull off.

17:03 So, will it go in Kalshi's favor?

17:05 Well, Kalshi would be the first to say,

17:08 "Want to bet on it?" And so would their biggest rival, Polymarket.

17:11 Both Polymarket and Kalshi are New York-based CFTC-designated contract markets.

17:16 But Polymarket's regulatory compliance came late.

17:18 In 2022, the CFTC ordered Polymarket to pay $1.4 million in civil

17:22 penalties to resolve charges that it ran an unregistered trading facility.

17:26 As a result, Polymarket moved its operations offshore and blocked US users,

17:31 which was a trivial barrier for anyone with a VPN.

17:33 But, when Trump appointed Michael Selig as chair of the CFTC in 2025,

17:37 he directed the agency to withdraw

17:39 the rule change on sports and political wagers,

17:41 stating that he supports responsible development of event contract markets

17:45 and the important role they play in the broader financial system.

17:48 Polymarket received a no-action letter from the CFTC,

17:51 came steaming back into the US prediction market game,

17:53 all while securing an undisclosed eight-figure investment from Don Jr.

17:57 Because corruption is just a game.

17:59 If you find all this alarming for reasons beyond the corruption on display,

18:02 but can't quite put your finger on why, I can help.

18:05 Anonymous betting on political outcomes

18:06 creates tremendous potential for wrongdoing.

18:09 The day before the United States launched military strikes on Iran,

18:12 more than 150 accounts on Polymarket placed

18:14 $855,000 in bets correctly predicting the attack.

18:18 At least 16 of those accounts made over $100,000.

18:21 While this doesn't rule out dumb blind luck,

18:24 the timing and volume of trades is extraordinarily suspicious.

18:27 In a less geopolitically consequential example, one of Mr.

18:30 Beast's editors was recently caught trading on Kalshi with information

18:33 not available to the public regarding some of Jimmy's un-aired videos.

18:37 He was fired, outed by Kalshi,

18:38 and Kalshi ultimately turned over the data they had

18:40 on his trades to the DOJ for criminal investigation.

18:43 Kalshi did this voluntarily because they can,

18:46 and presumably it makes them look good on the gram.

18:48 But, Polymarket can't, at least not if the trades were made in Bitcoin.

18:52 This is the competitive edge that Polymarket has over Kalshi,

18:55 and why both are valued around $20 billion.

18:57 Polymarket allows transactions in cryptocurrencies.

19:00 This added layer of pseudo-anonymity further incentivizes

19:03 no-holds-barred insider trading because it protects it.

19:06 We may never know who made those bets about

19:08 the time and place of the strikes against Iran.

19:10 Given the current administration's open love for all things crypto,

19:13 it's doubtful that any meaningful safeguards will be put in place.

19:16 And over on Twitter, Trump's new CFTC chair Michael Selig made the government's

19:20 attitudes about the Arizona case against Kelsi clear.

19:23 Quote, "This is a jurisdictional dispute

19:25 and entirely inappropriate as a criminal prosecution.

19:28 The CFTC is watching this closely and evaluating its

19:30 options." Selig is currently the only sitting CFTC commissioner,

19:34 also unlikely to change anytime soon.

19:36 Polymarket's somewhat clumsy yet ostentatious entry into the US

19:39 market doesn't mean it's avoided state scrutiny altogether.

19:42 In January, the Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a civil enforcement

19:45 action against Polymarket asking for an injunction

19:48 to cease this unlicensed wagering.

19:50 More state suits are likely,

19:51 but key to these disputes is the fact that the federal government's hands-off

19:54 approach leaves states with the task

19:56 of mitigating harms related to gambling and corruption,

19:59 which brings us full circle,

20:00 the problem of what happens when the federal government doesn't just ignore

20:03 a loophole that allows for loosely regulated markets like Kelsi and Polymarket,

20:07 but actively champions their exclusive power to set

20:10 the rules to whatever they want regardless of state law.

20:13 The federal government almost always wins the game of rock, paper,

20:16 federalism, no matter how much damage it does to the states.

20:19 You can bet on that.

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22:11 Let's have a conversation about how we can help you find not just a lawyer,

22:14 but the right lawyer for your situation.

22:16 Because at the end of the day, that's what this is all about.

22:18 Making sure that when life gets complicated, you don't have to face it alone.

22:21 Which is why when you need a lawyer,

22:23 you don't just need a legal team, you need the Eagle team.