Iran STRIKES UAE CRITICAL Oil Site As Ceasefire COLLAPSES
Breaking Points
0:03 Good morning everybody.
0:04 Happy Tuesday.
0:05 Have an amazing show for everybody today.
0:06 What do we have Crystal?
0:07 Indeed we do.
0:08 So yesterday right after our show concluded Iran struck the UAE.
0:13 Are we headed back to full-on war?
0:16 We will take a look at the indications.
0:17 Also Professor Pape is going to join us.
0:19 There's a press conference that's expected this morning.
0:21 So hopefully we'll have some clips for him
0:23 to react to and get his thoughts as well.
0:26 Republicans are trying to woo John
0:28 Fetterman to switch parties complicating Democratic math.
0:31 This comes in the wake of this Supreme Court decision which you know
0:35 changes the nature of the Voting Rights
0:37 Act and opens the ability for Republicans
0:40 to eliminate a lot of majority black districts in the South also making
0:44 it much more difficult for Democrats to achieve a major majority in the house.
0:48 New numbers about how almost everyone loses money on Polymarket and Kalshi.
0:53 Do not delude yourself otherwise.
0:55 A comprehensive look at Trump corruption something
0:58 that has been sorely lacking because there's
1:00 just so overwhelming the number of schemes
1:03 and crimes being committed by this administration.
1:06 And we also going to take a look at a pretty
1:07 stunning speech that MTG gave at the Ron Ron Paul
1:11 Institute in Texas that is getting a lot of attention
1:13 where she spills some tea about her breakup with President Trump.
1:17 Yes, that's right.
1:18 Shout out to MTG.
1:19 Also I'm really excited for Isaac.
1:21 Old you know recently met him at a conference.
1:23 He's such an such an interesting guy.
1:25 Really good to good job on this story.
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1:41 But let's go ahead and start with what happened in the UAE.
1:44 Let's go ahead and start with this video.
1:45 We'll put it up here on the screen so you can all see.
1:48 This is in Fujairah.
1:50 This is part of the UAE an oil terminal where actually
1:55 they're able to export oil by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
1:59 It is the only oil terminal.
2:01 Now we do not know well which is able to do that within the UAE.
2:05 We do not know the full extent of the damage.
2:08 However, you could see that fires were raging
2:10 and that there was smoke visible across the country.
2:13 We also know let's put A2 up there on the screen.
2:16 This was from Dropsite News.
2:18 This has footage of the alleged warning shots.
2:21 This was released by the Iranian state media so you can all see that.
2:24 Couple of interesting and noteworthy parts whenever we start to break it down.
2:29 Let's move on to A3 just so we can see this.
2:32 The UAE air defenses engaged 12 ballistic missiles,
2:36 three cruise missiles, and four drones.
2:39 So this was not a small attack.
2:42 This was a serious attack by Iran on the UAE.
2:45 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and four drones.
2:48 Obviously, I do think that it was a dual purpose attack by Iran.
2:52 Number one, they're showing that not only
2:53 do they still have ballistic and cruise
2:55 missile capacity mobile launchers that are
2:57 able to evade US detection UAE detection, but also they have the drone threat.
3:02 Now some of those were able to collide obviously with the Fujairah
3:06 plant and take at least some of that production that was offline.
3:10 This was done in retaliation for the blockade by the United States
3:16 that's currently happening and the announcement
3:18 that we covered yesterday of Project Freedom.
3:21 Project Freedom as you will all recall basically Crystal is
3:25 a map to tankers saying here's where all the mines are.
3:30 Just go through this way.
3:31 We're not going to escort you.
3:33 Just please just go ahead and go that way.
3:34 And they're like, yeah no I think we're good actually.
3:37 Just in case that we might get shot up by oh
3:40 I don't know a drone or an IRGC fast boat.
3:43 So things went hot very very quick.
3:46 Trump is downplaying it for right now, but the attack nonetheless is very very
3:49 significant for proving their capacity and willingness
3:52 to engage and to obviously now ceasefire it's always kind of been fake,
3:56 but now it's definitely fake.
3:57 Yeah, well Trump downplaying it is a significant development.
4:00 And he got asked you know do you think
4:01 the ceasefire is violated and he tried to you know
4:03 get get out of saying directly that Iran had violated
4:06 the ceasefire and that they were headed back to war.
4:09 What does that mean?
4:10 Who knows?
4:10 Time will tell I suppose.
4:12 But these strikes obviously incredibly significant.
4:15 And I think from [clears throat] the Iranian
4:17 perspective they were trying to achieve a few things.
4:19 First of all, they wanted to send a message to the US
4:21 of no we're not just going to sit here and take it and allow
4:24 you to try to create some phony impression of what's going on in the Strait
4:27 of Hormuz or to violate our control of the Strait of Hormuz.
4:32 It does appear that the US was able to help
4:34 assist two commercial vessels to get through the Strait.
4:37 Now those are commercial vessels so that have
4:39 sort of direct links to the US government.
4:42 Outside of those we're going to play for Professor Pape
4:46 an Indian ship captain who's in the region who's like,
4:48 no we're not going to just try our luck with the Strait of Hormuz.
4:51 Our companies will not allow us to take on that level of risk.
4:54 That is not happening.
4:55 So in any case, number one they wanted to send a message to the US.
5:00 Number two in terms of their choice of target,
5:02 they increasingly view the UAE as an extension of Israel.
5:07 We previously brought you the reporting that there
5:09 are IDF soldiers which are stationed in the UAE.
5:12 In an addition, Israel has provided them with Iron Dome defenses.
5:17 And in fact, reporting is and Israel
5:20 is claiming that it was those defenses provided
5:23 by Israel that engaged these missiles and these drones
5:27 as they were heading towards the UAE.
5:30 So UAE is effectively seen as like a you know a mini
5:33 Israel and it's a closer target easier target for Iran to hit.
5:38 More you know it's very weak.
5:39 There are some obviously strategic targets there
5:43 as Fujairah being a case in point.
5:45 And then another goal here is to continue to divide the Gulf Arab states.
5:51 Saudi from UAE in particular.
5:53 But you know the fact that UAE has
5:55 got all in on this greater Israel project effectively
5:57 with Israel is not something that is looked too
5:59 kindly upon by some other states in the region.
6:03 So this serves that purpose as well.
6:05 But the big picture here is Iran saying,
6:08 no we're not going to sit by and let you make some big announcement to the world
6:13 and try to change the reality of our control of the over the Strait of Hormuz.
6:16 If we need to engage militarily, we are not afraid to do that.
6:20 And your allies in the region continue to have severe vulnerabilities.
6:24 Yes, that's right.
6:25 Let's put A5 up there on the screen.
6:27 There's a lot of stuff that smells fishy I think here in the United States.
6:31 So the commander of CENTCOM Admiral Brad Cooper did a briefing with reporters
6:36 yesterday where he said more commercial ships are on route to travel,
6:41 but was not able to give any information on what they were.
6:44 As you said, two US flags were successfully did travel out of the Strait.
6:48 Quote, when I asked how many ships have been hit by Iran,
6:51 he declined to give a number.
6:53 Don't tell the enemy you know what they've been able to achieve.
6:57 So okay.
6:58 Um What Anyway, [laughter] there's that.
7:01 We do know at least one of them was a South Korean ship.
7:03 Let's put A6 up here So ridiculous.
7:06 Here is from the president.
7:07 This was immediately after the shots were
7:10 fired on the South Korean ship specifically.
7:12 Trump is not really fully addressed the UAE attack now so far.
7:16 He says Iran has taken some shots
7:18 at unrelated nations with respect to ship movement.
7:20 Project Freedom including a South Korean cargo ship.
7:23 Perhaps it's time for South Korea to come and join the mission.
7:26 We've shot down several small seven small boats
7:29 or as they like to call them fast boats.
7:31 It's all they have left.
7:33 Other than the South Korean ship,
7:34 there has been at this moment no damage going through the Strait.
7:37 Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and chairman of the chiefs well
7:40 joint chiefs Dan Cain will have a news conference tomorrow morning.
7:42 That's right now and it's actually happening.
7:44 I'm monitoring currently.
7:46 We will have clips which we will play later on for Professor Pape.
7:49 I will just give you this gem.
7:52 Pete Hegseth as a direct gift from the US to the world,
7:54 we have established a powerful red, white, and blue dome over the Strait.
7:58 The Okay.
8:00 Yeah, I love I love Trump's truth there too.
8:02 That's like other than the damage that was
8:03 done there was no damage that was done.
8:05 Oh I'm sure that'll make people feel very confident at you
8:08 know transiting through These are not These are not soldiers.
8:10 We're talking about regular you know working class
8:14 people of the world truly like from all over
8:16 the world and you know and backed by large
8:19 conglomerates and having to deal with insurance prices etc.
8:24 I don't think they're going to be too eager to to risk their lives in a hot
8:27 war zone when the US is not committing
8:29 any military assets to assisting with this project.
8:32 can't really.
8:32 Let's put A7 up there on the screen.
8:34 By the way, the number was actually six not seven.
8:36 In terms See what I did there?
8:38 Of the small Iranian boats as Trump warns regime
8:42 could be blown off the face of the earth.
8:45 This just want to add to the Iranians are claiming these were civilian boats.
8:48 I don't know the veracity of what is the case,
8:50 but in any case that's the claim that's being made.
8:52 No one knows.
8:53 I'm not sure I believe I I think
8:54 in this case I actually don't believe the Iranians just because
8:57 that the fast boat is the primary reason that they
9:00 exist in the first place in the Straits of Hormuz.
9:03 Those fast boats built by the IRGC.
9:05 They have videos that they released before the war.
9:07 It's honestly stunning.
9:08 Like it's like huge tunnels and areas where they're able to go
9:13 directly from the tunnel into the Strait and they're extremely cheap.
9:18 You know basically just a motor, a couple of guys.
9:20 They could even have mines.
9:21 They would have shoulder fired missiles like
9:23 all kinds of different munitions or you
9:25 know even small arms in in some cases where they're just able to go out.
9:28 I mean it's very very you know difficult to detect.
9:30 They're obviously moving rapidly.
9:32 They can just go do a strike and then they can come back.
9:34 Also, it's only like two people two people per
9:37 ship or per boat in each of these cases.
9:40 And so it's not a lot of risk whenever you're
9:43 sending out let's say six you know seven if you will
9:46 of many of these boats that are out there and then
9:49 they have literally hundreds if not thousands that are in reserve.
9:52 The US remember while the war was uh,
9:55 the hot part of the war initially was going on was pounding
9:58 the coastline to trying to take out a lot of these bunkers,
10:02 but a lot of them were concrete.
10:04 Uh, they were said to have been fortified.
10:07 Obviously, they've also had a few weeks now,
10:09 if they need to, to try and dug dig some of these out of the rubble.
10:12 It just demonstrates the asymmetric problem that we're dealing with here.
10:15 We did have Trump on the phone yesterday with Fox News' Trey Yingst.
10:18 Let's take a listen to that.
10:20 And I spoke with President Trump for 20 minutes about the situation with Iran.
10:24 He talked about Project Freedom and the US efforts to guide vessels through
10:28 the Strait of Hormuz issuing a new warning to the Iranian regime saying,
10:32 "If the Iranians try to target US ships in this area,
10:36 they will be, {quote}, blown off the face of the earth." Remember,
10:39 this was a project implemented by the Americans overnight to assist
10:43 the hundreds of vessels that are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf.
10:47 We're talking about more than 20,000 sailors.
10:49 And the president told Fox he's doing this for humanity.
10:52 Some of these sailors were running out of food and supplies
10:55 on these vessels due to the Iranian threats that are ongoing in this area.
10:59 And again, the president saying that if US ships in the region are targeted,
11:03 the Iranians will be blown off the face of the earth.
11:05 Now, I also asked President Trump about
11:07 the possibility of negotiations with Iran succeeding.
11:11 He said the Iranians are being far more
11:13 malleable than they were being in the past,
11:15 showing flexibility given the US pressure that continues
11:18 as part of the American blockade of Iranian ports.
11:21 President Trump called that blockade the greatest military maneuver in history.
11:25 As it relates to the combat preparations that continue across the region,
11:29 President Trump understands there are two paths here.
11:31 The Iranians either make a good faith
11:33 deal or ultimately combat operations could resume.
11:36 And President Trump told Fox News that right
11:39 now they have have bases all over the world.
11:41 There are American preparations underway.
11:43 He said they're all stocked with equipment and we can use all of that stuff.
11:47 And if he needs it, he will use it.
11:50 So, there you go.
11:50 I will blow them off the face of the earth.
11:52 I mean, I don't know how credible all of that to take it,
11:54 but it is important nonetheless.
11:56 I will say that people, you know,
11:58 the war drums are beating hard again here in Washington.
12:01 Let's put Lindsey Graham's tweet up here on the screen.
12:04 Spot on, Mr.
12:05 President.
12:06 The combination of Iran's attacks against
12:08 UAE's vital infrastructure and the continued attacks
12:11 on international shipping including a South Korean
12:13 cargo ship more than justifies a big,
12:16 strong, and short response to inflict further damage on Iran's war machine.
12:21 UAE has been a champion ally in this fight
12:24 doing everything that's being asked of them.
12:26 Like what, by the way?
12:27 You know?
12:28 Uh, by buying our weapons or shooting the weapons that we gave them already?
12:32 I guess.
12:33 Uh, Iran's recent brazen attack against the UAE tells me a lot about who's
12:37 in charge in Iran and the chance of a diplomatic solution at any time.
12:40 A forceful response on behalf of our ally UAE
12:43 will reinforce that America is back as a reliable
12:46 ally helping to further wash away the damage
12:49 caused by the Biden administration on this front.
12:51 I will say I couple this with a with a late night appearance by Lindsey
12:55 last night on Fox News where he actually seems to be backing away from this.
13:01 By the way, this would be a humiliation for the US.
13:03 It's like, "Oh, well, we can't respond." I'm saying in their framework.
13:07 Uh, the General General Keane this morning just revealed the US has
13:10 been attacked six to 10 times by the Iranians since the ceasefire.
13:13 Like directly by Iran.
13:15 And then And then he said,
13:15 "But that's below the threshold to resume major combat operations." So,
13:19 you know that these hawks when they hear
13:21 something like that are going to go crazy.
13:22 Cuz they go like, "Oh,
13:23 we got to establish deterrence." Which is what the Iranians are doing, too.
13:27 But last night on Sean Hannity's show, he said,
13:29 "There's no need for boots on the ground in Iran.
13:31 Instead, a Second Amendment solution stands a real chance of giving
13:35 the Iranian people a genuine path back to freedom." So,
13:38 he's advocating for the Libya-Syria model where he's like He said,
13:42 "We already have thousands of boots on the ground.
13:43 It's called the Iranian people.
13:45 They just need guns." So, he's like,
13:47 "Let's flood the country with a bunch of guns." I actually do wonder how
13:51 much of a talking point this will become as it's clear that the direct
13:54 engagement has totally failed is that they
13:57 will just adopt a maximum pressure sanctions
14:00 blockade strategy and try to flood the country with as much weapons as possible.
14:04 Now, obviously, because the Iranian regime still has some power and firepower,
14:09 they not just going to sit that take, you know, and take it lightly.
14:11 Yeah.
14:11 Like like Gaddafi or Assad did basically did
14:15 or they just didn't have the capacity to.
14:16 They're much stronger than they were.
14:18 But I I saw that and I was like, "Huh,
14:20 maybe that's the direction that things are going to go." Very much in the Libya
14:24 and the Syria vein where they know that Trump doesn't have the appetite.
14:28 You know, the Wall Street Journal has this report.
14:30 Every day Trump is oscillating.
14:32 Should I attack?
14:33 Should I not attack?
14:33 I don't want to engage, but I also want to open the strait.
14:36 He can see the gas coverage like anybody else.
14:39 And, you know, it's like Look, it's a problem of his own creation.
14:43 He should have never done it in the first place.
14:44 But seeing this, I could see it going down that road,
14:47 but of course, it still has tremendous risk.
14:49 Well, and what they would do then is, you know,
14:51 allow more pressure to build, some other precipitating event,
14:54 the next protest that, you know,
14:56 Mossad-backed protest with our weapons that is brutally repressed,
15:01 then it's going to be, "Oh, the regime is weak again." And we'll be back here,
15:04 um, you know, back here down the road.
15:06 I think that's entirely possible also because, I mean,
15:09 the math in terms of interceptors and terms
15:11 of our own stockpiles continues to be reality.
15:14 There's been nothing in this brief, {quote unquote},
15:16 ceasefire time that has changed those dynamics.
15:19 And so, uh, it's hard to see any military
15:22 solution that is going to fundamentally change the, um,
15:26 you know, the what both sides would bring to the bargaining table.
15:29 And, uh, so it's it's kind of a matter of time.
15:32 Now, the the thing on the other side
15:34 of that is whether the Iranians would accept that because,
15:37 uh, you know, they they may find that unacceptable.
15:40 They're anxious to secure the gains that they
15:43 have made through the war, you know,
15:45 through some sort of an actual peace deal so
15:47 that they're not continually threatened with war in the future.
15:50 So, um, you know, I don't know that they
15:52 would accept that new status quo that, you know,
15:55 the Lindsey Grahams of the world, etc., may want to push.
15:58 And, you know, it is we talked a little bit to Trita Parsi yesterday about, uh,
16:03 FDD's involvement and how much their reasoning and {quote
16:08 unquote} analysis is apparently influential in the White House.
16:11 They are the ones that produced this analysis that was like,
16:14 "Oh, their oil wells are going to explode.
16:15 And all you need is, you know,
16:17 14 days of blockade to stop the spread or whatever." And, uh,
16:20 apparently this was bought by Trump because he's desperate.
16:24 So, anything that he sees that even purports to give him a way out,
16:29 uh, he's going to grab onto whether that is pure fantasy,
16:32 which in this case it's already clear that that was
16:35 utter and pure fantasy that he's grabbing onto.
16:38 But it's, uh, been a very dangerous situation when it's Lindsey Graham,
16:42 Mark Thiessen, who's a George W.
16:44 Bush, like died-in-the-wool neocon,
16:47 exactly the kind of guy that Trump would have
16:49 claimed he'd have nothing to do with in the past.
16:52 Um, him, Lindsey Graham, and the FDD.
16:55 And now you've got an FDD guy who's on the negotiating team, which is insane.
16:59 I mean, that's an incredibly dire development that not only do you have Witcoff,
17:03 who's an idiot, Kushner, who's an Israeli asset,
17:05 and then you've got this FDD guy who
17:07 also would be almost definitionally an, you know,
17:09 at least a neocon if not also an Israeli asset.
17:11 So, uh, not looking good in terms of where things are heading right now.
17:16 No.
17:16 Uh, yeah, I mean, it's not just Well,
17:19 even when we talk about negotiating team, negotiation team for what?
17:22 There's no negotiation that's currently Well, I mean,
17:24 in that part, too, I always am Look,
17:27 the Iranians keep trying to make clear that they are trying to negotiate.
17:31 So, Araqchi put out a statement yesterday.
17:33 He said, "As negotiations are progressing."
17:35 But he said negotiations with Pakistan.
17:38 And so, I think this mediation continues, but there's been formal response,
17:42 you know, they deliver to Pakistan, Pakistan sends it to us.
17:45 Uh, both sides are still very, very far apart now.
17:48 I don't know.
17:48 I mean, maybe things will just try and continue in this direction.
17:50 But the war drums, as I said, they continue.
17:53 Let's put A10, uh, on the screen.
17:55 Naftali Bennett, the United Arab Emirates This is the former
17:58 Israeli prime minister also running now in the current election.
18:01 "The United Arab Emirates, our strategic ally, has just been attacked by Iran.
18:05 This is, in effect, a declaration of the renewal of Iran's war
18:09 against the allies of the United States and Israel across the region.
18:12 This regional alliance is vital to our security and to the security
18:15 of moderate partners in the Gulf and the Middle East.
18:18 Iran continues to try and intimidate the region
18:19 and poses a threat to global security.
18:21 We stand with our ally." Trita Parsi also made the joke that many
18:25 Iranian monarchists are now adding UAE flags
18:28 to their bios along with Israeli So,
18:31 it's Israel, America, the monarchist flag, and now the UAE flag.
18:35 I don't know.
18:36 You know, you see this, uh, I did initially think that immediately
18:39 that Trump would have to respond just because, uh, it's such a public thing.
18:45 Like this is It's not just an attack on the UAE.
18:48 It is a attack on their most vital oil infrastructure.
18:51 Like the thing that is keeping them afloat at all in the country.
18:55 And you're setting it on fire and you're not just sending one drone,
18:58 you're sending all these ballistic cruise missiles, drones.
19:01 It's a serious thing.
19:02 Multiple, uh, I think,
19:05 South Asian laborers were actually injured as a result of the attack.
19:10 You even had some crazy drone attack that hit,
19:13 uh, a compartment complex in Oman yesterday.
19:16 So, at first you're like, "Wow, like how could they possibly just sit there
19:20 and take it?" But I think Trump's response,
19:22 where he basically said, "It's not a violation of the ceasefire." Effectively,
19:26 in one of these phone interviews.
19:27 And this morning appears to have directed
19:30 the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to say directly that this does not
19:33 rise to the threshold of major combat operations.
19:36 They're afraid of having to go back to war.
19:38 They're They're honestly desperate to try to avoid it,
19:41 but they're not desperate enough to actually cut a deal.
19:43 So, that's where things stand right now.
19:45 Really does vindicate, I think, Professor Pape's framework about how,
19:49 uh, Iran has turned itself into a regional power.
19:51 So, with that, uh, let's get to it.
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