Pakistan's Big Plan to Trigger War in Kashmir for Global Attention! | StudyIQ IAS English
StudyIQ IAS: English
0:00 Hi everyone, Jai Hind and welcome to the platform of StudyIQ IAS in English.
0:03 Now, when it comes to Pakistan,
0:05 in Pakistan we have seen that there is two dimension to the governance.
0:09 One is military and the another one is the political or the political
0:13 parties which govern the you know complete
0:15 politics that is there or the country.
0:18 Now, when it comes to Pakistan, there is one more important thing that we
0:22 have to understand and that is the dynamics
0:24 that both the political parties and the military
0:27 have in their mind to survive in the country.
0:30 Now, as we know that this is the thing or this is
0:34 the time period where we are witnessing the West Asian crisis.
0:37 So, West Asian crisis has its implication not only on India
0:41 but overall the globe and the Pakistan had been hit very high.
0:46 When it comes to the oil prices, they have risen and Pakistan do not
0:49 have any strategic petroleum reserve as well.
0:52 At the same time, when it comes to Pakistan, so Pakistan had to pay,
0:56 it has to pay the loan that it has taken from UAE as well.
1:00 So, its foreign reserve is also dying and at the same time
1:03 we are seeing that Pakistan is asserting itself geopolitically as a mediator.
1:08 But, when it comes to the talks between the US and Iran, they have collapsed.
1:12 All right, the talks they are the Iran have
1:15 said that they are not attending the talks anymore.
1:19 All right, so ultimately when it comes to all these things,
1:21 so we see that Pakistan is desperate
1:23 to control its internal situation that is there.
1:27 And there is an intelligence report that I'm talking to you
1:30 about that says that right now there are 1,500 or 1,500
1:35 Pakistani based terror outfits agents which are planning to a major
1:39 strike in Jammu and Kashmir to trigger the international intervention.
1:44 So, this is what the Pakistan always do and that is to you know
1:48 shift the complete focus to from somewhere to the another field or the area.
1:53 Now, over here at the same time, when it comes to General Asim Munir,
1:56 he is reportedly orchestrating a double
1:59 game to distract from the internal political
2:02 as well as economic failures that Pakistan
2:05 is you know Pakistan is facing right now.
2:09 There is also failure of the Pakistan led mediation in Iran-US
2:13 talks that has pushed the military to rekindle the Kashmir issue again.
2:18 And that is that is what the Pakistan always do and that is
2:21 why this intelligence report that focuses on how the Kashmir could be again
2:27 at the agenda and you know Pakistan could use this for you know
2:32 for internationalizing the complete issue or the you
2:35 know Kashmir issue on the international phase.
2:39 All right, there is also the use of the western borders that had been used
2:43 by the Pakistan as a diversionary escape
2:45 route following the botched regional diplomacy as well.
2:50 And these are the things that I'll
2:51 be discussing in today's session along with you.
2:55 Now, there is the shadow of a big strike and when it comes to Pakistan,
2:58 so Pakistan is eyeing over the you know
3:00 a big strike in the Kashmir that has been
3:02 there in the intelligence report and over here we
3:05 know that when it comes to Jammu and Kashmir,
3:07 so Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir
3:11 is where the Pakistan has its presence.
3:13 At the same time, we have Aksai Chin here and we
3:16 have the Siachen Glacier also that is located over here.
3:22 Now, what is over here that is the strategic objective that Pakistan has?
3:27 It is the internationalization and Pakistan has time and again, you know,
3:31 put forward the Kashmir over the world map or in front
3:35 of the world and tried to gain sympathy out of it.
3:39 Now, over here in the report it is
3:41 a high casualty event that is designed to force
3:44 a UN-led or western diplomatic intervention that the Pakistan
3:48 may try that is there in this intelligence report.
3:51 And it aims to project the Kashmir as the nuclear flashpoint to bypass
3:56 the post-370 or the Article 370 that had been removed domestic normalcy.
4:03 This will sabotage the success of the tourism peak and infrastructure
4:06 projects in the valley and also it will lead to military's attempt
4:09 to justify its massive budget amid the Pakistan's economic meltdown in front
4:15 of the IMF in the case of IMF bail bailout as well.
4:20 So, Pakistan is going through the IMF
4:21 bailout packages and its economy is fragile,
4:25 its economy is failing and still Pakistan is playing or it is
4:29 showing that it is still a strong nation in front of the globe.
4:33 Now, over here what is happening or what
4:34 happens what is the module that Pakistan uses?
4:38 It is that it keeps a localized modules active in the region in the Pakistan
4:43 occupied region and there is the probability
4:46 that there could be a larger attack.
4:48 Now, this larger attack is so that that the India
4:51 it will retaliate just in the case like we
4:53 have seen in the case of Operation Sindoor and then
4:56 it will present the complete crisis as a regional crisis.
5:01 It will invite Pakistan will invite the third
5:03 party attention to the complete conflict and again
5:07 it will sustain the possible deniability in the complete
5:12 you know theater that it will have.
5:14 So, this also there is a complete report that also shows about
5:17 or it talks about the double game that Asim Munir is playing right now.
5:21 Pakistan had attempted to act as a bridge between
5:24 Iran and US and this attempt has been failed miserably.
5:29 All right, this has exposed its lack of diplomatic heft as well.
5:33 The green Pakistan initiative, all right, the green Pakistan or even the SIFC
5:38 that is the investment facilitation corporation in Pakistan,
5:43 these initiatives have failed to provide any kind of immediate relief.
5:47 And ultimately right now the security threat is
5:49 the only remaining unifying tool that Pakistan has.
5:53 All right, invite or you know be there in a kind of war or any kind of you know
6:00 activity with India and ignite the nationalism and that is
6:04 the only unifying tool that is left with Pakistan.
6:07 All right, it will also over here there will be tightening the grip
6:11 on the political dissent through
6:12 this by manufacturing an external crisis and ultimately
6:17 they will seek the new leverage via tactical movements in Afghanistan as well
6:21 and that is what the Asim Munir's new double game is all about.
6:26 There is western diversion where the Afghanistan is being used as a buffer.
6:30 Following this failed mediation efforts,
6:32 the Pakistani over here the establishment is reportedly
6:37 using the Afghan border as a tactical escape route.
6:41 Now, what they are doing is that they are shifting the attention
6:44 towards TTP or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan
6:48 and the border skirmishes with Taliban as well.
6:52 All right, they are also moving the terror launchpads
6:54 to the more rugged and less monitored western corridors and they are
6:58 using the terrorism in Afghanistan narrative to seek the financial aid
7:03 from the US or even from the western countries as well.
7:08 Now, when it comes to India, so India have taken proactive deterrence and we
7:12 have set up the integrated command as well.
7:15 There is increased coordination that you will see now between Jammu
7:18 Kashmir police as well as CRPF and the Indian army as well.
7:21 We have shifted our position or posture from strategic restraint
7:25 to proactive response as we have seen during the surgical strikes,
7:29 Operation Balakot as well.
7:31 And there had been implementation of the CIBMS that is
7:35 comprehensive integrated border management system in India as well.
7:40 All right, at the same time when it comes to diplomatic offensive,
7:43 we have highlighted the Pakistan state complicity when it comes to the terrorism
7:49 at FTF FATF as well as at the SCO forum recently by Union Minister sorry,
7:56 Defense Minister Mr.
7:57 Rajnath Singh and even at the G20 forum as well.
8:03 [clears throat] Now, when it comes to after the 370 was abrogated,
8:06 so the complete dynamics of the development have changed in Pakistan.
8:10 There were infrastructure boom when it comes
8:11 to Zojila tunnel about the AIMS which are constructed
8:15 and also the railway connectivity to Sri Srinagar
8:18 that is a counter narrative that is there.
8:22 All right, they have built or the boom it
8:24 acts as a counter narrative to the Pakistan's narrative.
8:28 There is also decentralization of the power and that have eroded the influence
8:32 of the separatist leaders in the valley
8:35 and even record breaking footfalls were there.
8:38 All right, in 2023 there were 2.1 crore
8:41 of the tourists they have visited the Kashmir valley.
8:45 Then also when it comes to Indian government,
8:48 so there is the Operation All Out that is the systematic neutralization
8:51 of the local terror leadership that we have seen in the valley.
8:55 But, at the same time there are gray zone challenges that remains.
8:59 Now, what are the gray zone warfare or gray zone challenges?
9:02 The gray zone challenges are where there is hybrid warfare warfare.
9:06 That is use of lone lone wolf to attack and magnetic bombs
9:11 that is sticky bombs so that it will minimize the organizational footprints.
9:15 At the same time, there is also information warfare.
9:19 The same kind of information warfare that we have seen during US and Iran war.
9:23 So, there is the use of deep fakes on social media as well to fuel the local
9:27 discontent content and international condemnation as well.
9:31 There is also narco terror issue or the nexus
9:34 that is there that is over here the Pakistan is using
9:37 the golden crescent drug trade so that it can fund
9:41 the terrorism across the LOC and the Punjab border as well.
9:45 There could be even the targeted killings
9:47 and attacks on Kashmiri Pandits and the migrant
9:50 laborers that will stall the rehabilitation process
9:53 that we are making in the Kashmir.
9:55 So, there are certain gray zone challenges that we should be aware about.
9:59 So when it comes to the Pakistan goal so on the western front that is
10:03 between US and Iran it aims to broker
10:06 a global peace for the international cloud.
10:08 All right in Afghanistan it wants to create a controlled
10:12 manageable distraction and when it comes to the eastern
10:15 front that is towards India it want to internationalize
10:18 the Kashmir issue and secure the US intervention as well.
10:22 The action that Pakistan had it was that it
10:24 hosted talks and made false promises on US blockade.
10:28 All right in Afghanistan it has launched more than
10:32 245 unprovoked border operations in January 2026 and when it
10:37 comes to India it has reactivated ISI launch pads
10:40 and deployed nearly about 1500 agents for India as well.
10:44 The result is that when it comes to western
10:46 front there had been collapse of the talks and there
10:49 is deep Iranian mistrust now that we have seen
10:52 towards towards the mediation that was brokered by Pakistan.
10:57 When it comes to Afghanistan so there had been humiliating Taliban
11:01 counter attacks or counter strikes on Pakistan military headquarters and when it
11:05 comes to India or eastern front so when it comes
11:08 to this so you know ultimately you know what happened in operation Sindoor.
11:12 So if it happens that Pakistan targets India or Kashmir so it
11:16 will invite a massive potentially uncontrollable
11:21 Indian retaliation that will be there.
11:23 All right not just militarily we have seen also
11:25 that what he had done with the Indus Water Treaty.
11:28 So this is all in this complete session now
11:30 that you know all about the dynamics that we have.
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12:00 So that would be all in today's session.
12:02 Thank you very much guys for joining me over here on the platform of StudyIQ.
12:06 Thank you very much guys and bye-bye take care and Jai Hind.
12:10 But before moving ahead do not forget
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12:14 Thank you and Jai Hind.