"Heading For A Global DEPRESSION!" Professor Jiang Debates Iran War, Trump And China Ties

0:00 Are we heading for a global recession, do you think?

0:03 I think that we are heading towards a global depression.

0:05 I'm terrified.

0:06 People are not going to starve to death.

0:08 They're going to die of thirst.

0:09 Where is Russia?

0:10 Where are the Brits?

0:11 Where are the Chinese?

0:12 Where are the Europeans?

0:13 I think that's been a big problem for Trump is nobody seems to be helping.

0:17 If you want to get people to help you,

0:18 probably don't call them a bunch of morons

0:20 all the time would be my starting point.

0:22 It seems like you all can't determine who's

0:24 the good guy here and here who's the evil.

0:26 You're the bad guy for God's sake.

0:28 Yeah, exactly.

0:29 I mean, that's my point.

0:30 Okay.

0:30 If you can't realize that America is the evil empire here,

0:34 we're saying the the United States is the evil empire.

0:37 Yes.

0:37 Stop reading Hollywood scripts and realize which planet you're on.

0:40 Okay.

0:40 But if we're the evil empire,

0:41 why is it every immigrant in the world wants to come to the United States?

0:45 Nobody wants to go there now, mate.

0:49 This is a serious warning, announced the IRGC after firing at a US warship.

0:53 Australia Hormuse remains closed.

0:56 to the 100mile choke point along Iran's southern

0:58 border has become the regime's most powerful weapon.

1:01 Clearly, the United States has no military solution for opening it.

1:04 And while President Trump may boast that the US

1:06 doesn't need the straight rocketing gas prices,

1:09 the spiking inflation say otherwise.

1:11 Recent polls show that voters now trust Democrats more than

1:14 Republicans on the economy for the first time in 16 years.

1:17 The fact is that oil trades in a global market.

1:20 That means Americans will pay the price just like the rest of us.

1:23 And while the White House has promised

1:25 immediate relief as soon as the straight reopens,

1:28 most experts say the economic chaos will reign for months or worse.

1:32 So, how bad could it all get?

1:34 Well, one of my guests today is warning of everything from recession to famine.

1:38 Joining me to debate is the economics professor and commentator Steve Keem,

1:42 former economics adviser to President Trump, Steven Moore,

1:45 and returning to Uncensored, the game theorist, Professor Jiang.

1:48 Well, welcome to all three of you.

1:50 Uh, Steve King, welcome to Uncensored.

1:53 Um, thank you.

1:55 What is going on here economically?

1:56 We we keep being told this is the worst stress

2:00 on the global economy through energy that we've ever seen.

2:05 Is that right?

2:06 And how much worse could it get?

2:09 Well, it's it's right.

2:11 And every measure I've seen said it's larger than 1973 with the Omipa war,

2:16 larger than the price rise in uh the 1979

2:20 when prices increased by a factor of four.

2:22 uh and it's basically destruction of a large part of the planet's infrastructure

2:27 for dragging oil out of the ground and everything else we get along with oil.

2:31 So it's not just oil that's being destroyed.

2:33 It's something like about 30% of the world's helium supply.

2:36 It's something of the 30 to 50% of fertilizer.

2:39 Sulfuric acid is half of the sulfuric

2:42 acid we use for industrial processes is gone.

2:45 This is going to cause a monumental shock

2:47 to the production system of the entire planet.

2:50 the the markets so far have been remarkably

2:54 resilient given how stressed this has all been.

2:57 Why is that?

2:58 And are we going to wake up as some predict?

3:00 I think you've been one of them.

3:01 Is there going to be a massive backlash to all

3:04 this in terms of a potential recession, do you think?

3:08 Yes, I do.

3:08 And like I'm just smiling because I remember listening to George Soros

3:11 once explain his approach to how he made money out of the markets.

3:15 And he says, "Forget the efficient markets hypothesis.

3:18 That's a load of nonsense.

3:19 What actually the markets actually do is they

3:21 underreact in the first place and then overreact later.

3:24 So he'd pick something where there was going to be

3:26 an underreaction like for example what's going to happen

3:28 to the British pound where back in the days

3:30 of fixed exchange rates and he'd say he'd buy

3:33 them at that stage and know that they you know up or down you know take a put

3:37 or a call position know that the market's going

3:39 to come up to his position later and make a killing.

3:43 Now that's what's happening right now.

3:44 I spoke with five people who are financial

3:47 markets experts in a Twitter uh forum some couple

3:50 of weeks back and I finally got bored and left

3:52 the damn thing because not one of them talked

3:54 anything about the physical manufacturing processes behind what's happening

4:00 in the straight and when you destroy helium production

4:04 when you destroy fertilizer throughput when you lock all

4:07 those resources up the production system has to fall over.

4:10 So, this is going to be a financial

4:12 crisis caused by a damage to the production system,

4:14 which is the opposite of the usual situation.

4:16 The financial system screws the manufacturing system.

4:20 Steven Moore, welcome to Uncensored to You.

4:23 Um, you've been very supportive of Trump economics,

4:27 Trump uh, Trumponomics as some people call it.

4:31 It it struck me that this was always a massive gamble by President

4:35 Trump and that the potential downside was was big and it's turned out

4:41 to be very big so far with very little at the moment I

4:45 would say very little tangible upside in terms of concessions from the Iranians

4:50 because they've realized that by strangling

4:53 and controlling the straight of Hormuse coupled with their strategy of attacking

4:57 their their neighbors the Gulf state neighbors

4:59 that that twoprong wronged strategy can be

5:02 very effective in in damaging the economy

5:06 both for the Gulf States and for the global economy with the strait.

5:09 You know, how bullish are you about what is going

5:11 on here if this carries on for a few weeks or months?

5:16 Well, I certainly agree that uh look, energy is the master resource.

5:21 Everything that we have is derivative of energy.

5:24 And so when you see the price of oil go up

5:28 to as high as $110 a barrel from it was at, you know,

5:33 almost half that level uh at the beginning of the year.

5:36 Remember at the beginning of the year,

5:38 thanks in part to Trump's drill baby drill strategy,

5:40 we had the lowest gas prices in 50 years adjusted for inflation.

5:45 So everything was going swimmingly with respect to energy.

5:49 And then all of a sudden you have the straits closed down.

5:52 You have the bombing.

5:53 Uh and that has certainly disrupted things in a very negative way.

5:56 And look a higher higher price of oil

5:59 is just a basically attacks on the world economy.

6:02 It affects everyone.

6:03 I agree that uh you know so many

6:06 industries from our technology industry to our transportation

6:09 industry uh to our manufacturing is all very

6:13 uh dramatically affected by a higher price of oil.

6:16 And the real question is how long will this last?

6:19 Now none of us know that answer.

6:21 Uh I would say that the best way of gauging how

6:24 long this will last is to look at the futures market.

6:27 In other words, you can buy a barrel of oil 3

6:29 months from now and you can pay a price for that.

6:32 And so the futures markets are telling us that the price of oil

6:36 will migrate back down to, you know, 70 or $80 a barrel.

6:41 And let's hope that they're right.

6:43 uh because if it doesn't happen,

6:44 it's going to be really bad news for the Republicans

6:47 come midterm elections because the one thing one

6:50 thing that we all know is uh that that Americans

6:53 hate paying high gas prices at the pump.

6:56 Yeah.

6:56 But the person that knew that better than anybody was President Trump.

6:59 You know, I've known him a long time.

7:00 You have.

7:01 Um you know, yes, it was a massive gamble.

7:03 I understand he wants to stop Iran developing a nuclear weapon.

7:07 I understand the the arguments.

7:09 I just felt like going going to war with Iran

7:12 in the way that's happened had so many potential negatives

7:15 to it that it was an enormous political risk never mind

7:18 anything else and a huge as it's turned out economic risk.

7:22 Um and the the truth is about the future markets for example with this I

7:26 don't think anybody knows July Steven I

7:28 mean the truth is I don't think President

7:30 Trump knows what we do know is that the IRGC the Iranian regime remains pretty

7:36 well in charge that seems clear because the people are not rising up at all we

7:41 know that the straight of remains pretty well

7:43 closed they have control of that and you

7:46 know it if they think they can hold America to economic ransom it is

7:52 highly likely given the history of this 47-year

7:55 regime that that's exactly what they'll do

7:57 that they will affect maximum leverage economically knowing

8:01 that that is actually their most effective weapon.

8:07 So I would simply say to that that uh

8:09 you know Trump has has said short-term pain

8:11 for long-term gain and the big question of course

8:14 is how long is that short-term pain going to last?

8:17 Uh and so I don't have an answer to that.

8:18 I am not a foreign policy expert.

8:20 I'm an economist.

8:21 I'm here to tell you if the if the price remains high it will have

8:25 a very negative effect on the economy especially

8:27 given the fact that we are now moving into this incredible new age of uh AI

8:32 robotics where the data centers where our energy

8:35 demands are going to double over the next 10 years so we're going to use

8:39 a lot more energy and I'll just say one other final point the world is

8:43 not running out of oil and gas the world is you know wash in oil

8:46 and gas this is this is a uh supply chain main problem because the straight

8:52 is being shut down and the world has to come together to get those straits open.

8:57 Where is Russia?

8:58 Where are the Brits?

8:58 Where are the Chinese?

8:59 Where where are the uh uh you know

9:02 where are the Europeans and helping get that done.

9:05 I think that's been a big problem for Trump is nobody seems to be helping.

9:09 Well, one of the problems is he keeps trashing them all publicly,

9:11 which is if you want to get people to help you,

9:14 probably don't call them a bunch of morons

9:15 all the time would be my starting point.

9:17 Uh, let me bring Yeah, but we've helped Well, look,

9:19 we've helped them for 40 We spent

9:21 hundred billion dollars on the defense of Europe.

9:23 So, I mean, for them to sit on their hands,

9:26 I think Trump is right to say maybe we're going

9:27 to have to reinvestigate this uh this relationship with Europe.

9:31 Well, it could just be that that a lot of European countries

9:34 were not persuaded that Iran was about to imminently have a nuclear weapon.

9:39 And the reason [clears throat] for that, I can speak for my country, the UK.

9:42 Although if I'd been prime minister,

9:44 I would have absolutely allowed America to use

9:47 our bases for any military action they wanted.

9:50 Um, I do think that we have quite long memories here of what happened with Iraq

9:55 where we were assured that Saddam Hussein had

9:57 weapons of mass destruction and we went to war.

10:00 It cost enormous amount of money,

10:02 enormous amount of lives lost, led to the rise of ISIS.

10:05 It was pretty well a catastrophe.

10:07 So, I think people in Britain and others in Europe that went

10:10 to war in Iraq over the issue of WMD are like,

10:14 you know what, we're not persuaded.

10:15 And they should be allowed to be not

10:17 persuaded in my opinion without the president, you know,

10:20 going completely berserk as he's done because I don't think

10:22 that helps persuade anybody to to help in the way

10:26 that I think you you reasonably [snorts] put put

10:30 out a a sort of narrative here that yes,

10:32 of course, all the countries have a vested interest in the street

10:35 being reopened ought to be working together to do it.

10:38 But it is quite hard when the guy that started the war that led

10:42 to it being struck uh shut is just trashing you all the time.

10:46 Um, Professor Jen, let me bring you back into uh the debate here.

10:50 Welcome back to Uncensored.

10:51 We always get a great reaction when you come on.

10:53 So, um, so thank you for sparing me some of your valuable time.

10:57 Um, you know, Stephen mentioned there China

11:00 and why China isn't doing more to help.

11:02 It is interesting because China really gets more energy through the straight

11:07 than anybody else in the world and therefore has a bigger vested interest,

11:11 you would think, in getting it reopened as soon as possible.

11:15 Why is China kind of sitting this out?

11:19 Well, China is not sitting this out.

11:21 Um, we have the ceasefire in place because China did a lot

11:25 of backdoor negot diplomacy in order

11:28 to pressure the Iranians to attempt a ceasefire.

11:32 Um, this is out of character for China.

11:35 China does not like to involve itself in um other nations affairs and so I think

11:42 without Chinese pressure we would not have the RGC

11:44 agreeing to the CSR in the first place.

11:46 Um the issue is that the United States

11:49 continues to be unreasonable in negotiations with the Iranians.

11:54 The Iranians have done a lot in order to try to accommodate the Americans.

11:59 But you know when JD Vance went to Pakistan for for the first

12:02 time to negotiate with the Iranians basically uh it was a very heavy-handed

12:07 um ultimatum to the Iranians and after that I think that the uh

12:12 Iranians recognize that there really is

12:14 no hope in negotiating with the Americans.

12:16 The Americans want to escalate.

12:18 Why the Americans want to escalate um we don't know but we

12:22 can expect that um over the next few weeks the escalation will increase.

12:26 You know, Trump has talked about using uh US naval

12:31 ships to escort oil tankers through the ship of Homus.

12:34 This is clearly a provocation and we might have a golf and to gulf

12:38 of token incident uh which will allow Trump to justify a ground invasion, right?

12:45 And and a ground invasion, Steve Keane, would be to me [clears throat]

12:49 just pouring fuel onto what is already a burning fire of mayhem over there,

12:56 which I think could be horrendous for the United States.

13:00 Absolutely.

13:00 Absolutely.

13:01 And I think this the soldiers on the ships are having much the same reactions.

13:04 We don't know whether the new nuclear aircraft

13:08 carriers taken out by Iranian attacks or by sailors

13:12 stuffing their own clothing into the sewage system

13:14 to block it and force it out of the conflict.

13:16 Those are our two choices.

13:18 You have probably the least willing

13:19 American military in the history of America's

13:22 military incursions supposed to go up against a country of, you know,

13:26 90 million people who know they f face an existential risk.

13:31 It's absolutely ludicrous to be talking about ground

13:33 troops going into that part of the world.

13:36 And I've had, you know, I'm not an expert in military matters either.

13:38 We've all acknowledged that.

13:40 But but from what I've got from reports

13:42 of people who I know are experts in that area,

13:44 unless the Americans have Star Wars style weapons to use against the Iranians,

13:50 and this is going to be a slaughter of those American troops.

13:53 And then again, I completely agree.

13:55 This has probably been set up as another false flag,

13:57 which America should be famous for.

13:59 The Gulf of Tonkin, which dragged them

14:01 into the Vietnam conflict in the first place,

14:04 was put across as an attacker by American ships in international waters,

14:09 was actually an American attack within Vietnamese waters.

14:12 Uh, all this stuff, America sets up these wars and then loses them.

14:17 You've described Donald Trump as an anarchist who behaves

14:20 like a mafia boss uh with no idea of consequences.

14:24 And you've sent this message to world leaders, get rid of Trump, stop this.

14:28 America has to concede defeat and step back to give us

14:31 a chance to rebuild the world's

14:33 physical infrastructure before global famine sets in.

14:37 You added it's a cluster coming out of America.

14:40 If you're going to see regime change to stop this war,

14:42 forget about seeing it in Iran.

14:44 You need to see it in America.

14:45 I mean, that's that's strong rhetorical stuff there.

14:49 Um, just just explain what you what you're getting at.

14:54 Well, look, first of all, I mean,

14:55 my perspective on Trump comes from having a personal

14:58 relationship with somebody with narcissistic

15:00 personality disorder and everything.

15:03 I think the one advantage of that relationship

15:04 on the long term was I understood Donald Trump,

15:07 I think, and that is that he simply

15:09 wants to make himself the center of attention.

15:11 And it doesn't matter how you do it.

15:13 you make a center of attention by giving

15:14 a nice dance or by invading another country.

15:17 He just wants to be the center of attention.

15:19 I think that's why he fell for Netanyahu's provocation which

15:23 40 years of previous American uh presidents have resisted and went

15:27 in in the belief that over in a in you

15:29 know a couple of days I mean the all the talk

15:32 about you know we've got to get Iran to be

15:34 reasonable Iran Iranian regime yada yada yada the very first

15:37 thing the Americans did was assassinate the top leadership

15:40 of the country including the father and and I believe the wife

15:44 of the new leader uh [laughter] you want to be

15:47 taken seriously as somebody to negot negotiate with that just tells

15:50 you don't negotiate defeat them on the ground and just

15:53 like Vietnam was a war where they brought in enormous firepower

15:56 and lost to a guerilla or army this is bringing

15:58 in enormous power power and taking against a a a political

16:04 system which has devote broken itself into 31 like heads

16:08 of a hydra so that you can't take it out collectively.

16:11 So all America's tactics have backfired so far.

16:14 They'll continue backfiring.

16:15 The only way out is for Donald Trump to declare victory while conceding defeat.

16:21 Steven Moore, I mean,

16:22 I can't imagine a scenario where Donald Trump uh tries to get

16:27 out of this without at least presenting a case for for total victory.

16:31 That's his nature.

16:32 Um, but in terms of this war and the impact it's had on his legacy,

16:39 how was the tariff war doing before all this?

16:42 In other words, the the the the Trumponomics

16:46 which he launched with a huge gusto, you know,

16:48 a kind of year ago, how is how was that playing out,

16:52 do you think, globally before this?

16:54 In other words, you know, was was his economic strategy, do you think, working?

16:59 And is has this put everything back or was it not really working?

17:03 And this has added to the general sense of of chaos.

17:08 Well, first of all, I just have to say, I mean, come on.

17:11 Yeah.

17:11 It seems like you all can't determine who's

17:14 the good guy here and here who's the evil.

17:15 And by the way, I'm not even a big fan.

17:18 For God's sake.

17:19 Yeah.

17:19 Exactly.

17:20 I mean, that's my point.

17:20 If you actually think that we're the bad guys and the arenas,

17:23 the good guys, you have a personal personality disorder, my friend.

17:27 Sorry.

17:28 And and it really is amazing that you think that we're

17:31 the villains here and that the this is a regime.

17:34 And by the way, again, I'm not even I wasn't even necessarily in favor

17:37 of this incursion in the first place, but come on.

17:40 This is a regime that was killing thousands thousands,

17:43 murdering their own people.

17:44 This was a regime that was holding a nuclear weapon.

17:47 So, how are we the bad guys by trying to save lives?

17:50 And I do think, look, I think to Trump's credit,

17:52 he really did he did view this as a humanitarian

17:55 mission to save lives that were being slaughtered.

17:58 Now, in terms of our economy, look, you know,

18:01 we've had now five and a half years

18:02 of Trump's presidency with an incredibly strong economy.

18:06 Trump economics has worked.

18:07 If it hadn't been for COVID,

18:08 Trump would have been reelected with a 40 state re-election landslide.

18:12 The the economy was very strong going into 2026.

18:16 And it's true that the Iran

18:18 situation has really changed that picture dramatically,

18:21 which is why Trump really needs to bring

18:23 this to an end uh as quickly as possible.

18:25 But by the way, I'm not I'm not just attacking Steve.

18:27 I think there are a lot of foreign leaders, too,

18:30 who can't seem to figure out who's the good guy and who's the bad guy here.

18:35 That's American.

18:37 I I was facing being conscripted to fight for freedom in Vietnam.

18:41 And the one thing that threw me is

18:42 why am I being conscripted to fight for freedom?

18:44 Okay.

18:45 You go into Vietnam, you attack it.

18:46 Your whole thing is about going

18:47 to stop the communist invasion of Southeast Asia.

18:50 Who was the first country?

18:51 Vietnam has a war with China.

18:53 The first and last war that Turk are

18:56 completely against what you thought was going to happen.

18:58 Afghanistan, Iraq.

19:02 You should well you should be against this one as well.

19:04 Grow up.

19:05 Okay.

19:05 If you can't realize that Americ is the empire.

19:14 Yes.

19:14 The United States began this what what country has invaded America?

19:20 How many countries has America invaded?

19:22 Please stop reading Hollywood scripts and realize planet.

19:26 I I I I seem to think that 9/11 was an attack on America.

19:30 Maybe you don't agree with that, but yes.

19:33 Okay, that's one.

19:34 Which country?

19:35 I said before.

19:36 You forgot about that one, right?

19:38 No, I did.

19:38 I didn't forget.

19:39 I said country.

19:40 And no country did that.

19:42 That was a rogue.

19:43 And the the rogues came from Saudi Arabia,

19:45 not from the bloody country you raided in the results of it.

19:48 You guys have got a Hollywood version of your own history.

19:50 It's a joke from the outside.

19:52 Nobody takes you seriously anymore.

19:55 Before the evil empire,

19:56 why is it every immigrant in the world wants to come to the United States?

19:59 [laughter] Nobody wants to go there now, mate.

20:02 You right.

20:03 You should be at the border.

20:04 You can see

20:06 we have we have millions of people who are signing

20:08 up to get visas to come to the United States.

20:10 They don't want to go to any other country.

20:11 They want to come to the US.

20:13 I mean, look, from my from my point of view, I I let me be crystal clear.

20:17 I do [clears throat] think Iran is an evil regime.

20:20 Uh for 47 years, it's been oppressive to its own people in a despicable way.

20:25 And also it's been the the key sponsor of terrorism through the Houthis,

20:29 Tesba and Hamas uh through the la the last few decades and we've all

20:32 seen where that has led and that's been part of of the big picture problem.

20:36 President Jang, let me bring you you back in here.

20:39 People are looking at manufacturing resilience as one of the reasons why China

20:44 ultimately will prevail here in the economic aspect of of what is going on.

20:50 that China's moved beyond cheap labor to advanced automation.

20:54 Um Steve Keane has note has noted uh that if global trade stops,

21:00 China has the internal infrastructure to survive

21:03 whereas the west has outsourced its survival.

21:06 Is that do do you agree with that?

21:09 Yeah, I mean if you just look at the past couple months,

21:12 China has been much more resilient and much more able to adapt

21:15 to the new economic circumstance than other uh countries in Southeast Asia,

21:20 especially the Philippines and Thailand.

21:22 And Japan's also a lot of stress stress as well.

21:24 So it seems like the Chinese government has been

21:27 preparing for this eventuality for a long long time.

21:30 They've been very strategic.

21:31 They've been very uh um very long-term in their thinking.

21:35 The issue is that the long-term strategic scenario does not favor

21:39 China because China is still an economy that depends on exports.

21:45 And if there are these wars raging around the world,

21:47 then it's going to be very hard for China

21:49 to export its manufactured goods to the rest of the world.

21:52 The second issue is that China consumes a lot of resources.

21:55 Yes, I do understand that China has renew renewables and I

21:58 do know that China has a lot of inventory and stockpiles,

22:01 but eventually all this is going to run out.

22:03 So from a long-term strategic perspective, China is not as um as well adapted

22:11 to a change as say maybe Russia or the United States.

22:15 Will what's happened here with Iran and actually

22:18 to a lesser degree the Russian invasion of Ukraine,

22:21 which has also been now, you know,

22:23 we're four years in now and it's it's becoming a real quagmire.

22:28 Um, will what's happened deter China from uh invading Taiwan, for example?

22:36 I I think that given the current geopolitical

22:39 outlook and given the fact that this situation in Iran is only going to escalate

22:44 and this may have ripple effects throughout the world,

22:47 um I think that China is going to be much more cautious in its um approach.

22:54 In fact, we may see that China begins

22:57 to u become much more isolationist over over the years.

23:01 Yeah, I mean that's what I would certainly be tempted to if I were them.

23:04 Um Steve King, what is your prediction?

23:08 We've talked about what is happening and what we feel about it,

23:10 but what is your prediction for how this plays out?

23:15 I'm terrified about what the consequences could be here.

23:19 uh because the Iranians have done

23:20 a very clever tactic of basically guerrilla warfare

23:24 on at a national level far beyond what

23:27 the Vietnamese were ready for in the very first instance.

23:30 Uh and they are doing tit for tat anybody who's been

23:33 a supporter of America of course that includes the Arab principalities

23:37 and kingdoms and the Israelis as well will be retaliated

23:41 for any attack done on specific similar uh resources inside Iran itself.

23:47 Now Trump's there's already been one attack on a desolination plant in Iran

23:51 and I think I've seen figures to say that 96% of Iran's water is natural.

23:56 Uh you look at the other side the Arabian

23:58 state some of them have 96% dependence upon desalination.

24:02 If it goes that far then we will and you have

24:06 no idea how this stupid attack is going to turn out.

24:10 Then that could mean that those areas have to be

24:11 evacuated because people are not going to starve to death.

24:14 They're going to die of thirst.

24:15 Now this this is the horrific possibilities here are just ludicrous and it's

24:20 absolutely monumental failure of judgment to begin

24:24 this conflict in the first place.

24:26 Yeah.

24:26 I mean Stephen Moore that is the problem it seems to me

24:30 is that no one can say with any real confidence what

24:33 is going to happen and the one thing that global economy

24:36 needs is confidence and no one I don't think can say that.

24:40 We've also got this kind of geopolitical turmoil now

24:43 with the Gulf States where they've all been attacked.

24:47 They're seeing their business model to replace oil,

24:50 which was going to be tourism and come here, it's safe, it's sunny.

24:54 Uh we're going to have entertainment and sport and so on.

24:56 You know, we're seeing a dramatic dialing

24:58 down of investment in things like golf.

25:01 The live golf um investment is ending and so on.

25:04 you're seeing lots of immediate reactive signs that this has been very damaging

25:09 to the to the ongoing future business model of countries like Saudi Arabia,

25:15 states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Qatar and so on.

25:19 So there's a lot going on here, isn't there?

25:23 There is.

25:24 I mean, I I don't know kind of where to start.

25:26 I would simply say that I mean one really really positive thing that's

25:30 happened the last couple of weeks is the UAE dropping out of OPEC.

25:34 I mean as long as I've been alive since I was a teenager

25:37 I go back to the 1970s you know we've had OPEC with a blade

25:40 at our neck where they could just by turning on and off the spigotss

25:44 they could really uh throw the American

25:47 economy into recession and glo causing global recession.

25:50 And the fact that OPEC is falling apart

25:52 or at least appears so is a very good thing.

25:54 And and by the way, the reason OPEC the real reason OPEC is falling apart is

25:58 that the the country that has the most oil

26:01 and gas in the world is the United States.

26:03 We're the number one producer now, which is amazing.

26:06 And how do you have a cartel when

26:07 the number one producer isn't isn't part of your cow.

26:10 So what you whether you like Donald Trump or not,

26:13 you everybody has to agree that his drill baby

26:15 drill strategy has been amazing for the US economy.

26:18 that it's made us less reliant,

26:20 although we're still relying on Middle East oil, made us much less so.

26:24 So, I think the approach going forward for the US should

26:26 be produce as much energy as we possibly can at home,

26:30 our oil, our gas, our coal, our nuclear power,

26:32 and when when uh when it's appropriate,

26:35 we could maybe get some uh oil energy from wind and solar,

26:39 use it all so that we don't have to be captive to the Middle East any longer.

26:43 But is it naive?

26:44 Is it naive, Stephen, for President Trump to take a view of, you know,

26:48 this is not our problem, right?

26:49 The energy part of this.

26:51 We produce our own energy almost pretending there [clears throat] isn't

26:54 a global energy economy that's true

26:56 that America inevitably will be dependent on.

27:00 Of course, and and there's a global oil

27:02 supply and a global oil uh, you know, demand.

27:05 And what I'm saying is that we

27:07 can somewhat inoculate ourselves from that by because

27:10 the more and more we produce the more valuable the oil is.

27:15 Professor Jang, um the inevitable consequence of all

27:21 this I guess is that many countries as Steven Moore just indicated will become

27:27 as you said earlier about China more isolationist.

27:31 What impact will that have do you think on geopolitics globally?

27:36 I think that um we are reaching we are coming

27:39 to a point where the world's going to be very similar to 1930s

27:42 when the world became much more isolationist when the global economy

27:46 collapsed and when wars start to flare up around the world.

27:50 I mean uh even though America is the wealthiest country in the world even

27:54 even though it is energy uh independent

27:57 its economy is still um globally reliant.

28:00 So if the GCC collapses then it loses its petro

28:03 dollar and loses like trillions of dollars in investment and we

28:07 could see a financial crisis in America over the next

28:09 few months which would lead to a catastrophic global depression.

28:14 Um so the outlook for the world is is very very grim.

28:18 Uh Steve Keane, you've been very apocalyptic about the future of Bitcoin.

28:24 Explain why.

28:26 Oh, mainly because I people have talked

28:27 about Bitcoin as being an alternative to money.

28:30 And this is to me just naive about the nature of money itself.

28:34 And this is common across

28:35 the entire economics profession economists, weirdly enough,

28:38 in their mathematical models do not include banks or debt or money.

28:43 and they they try to treat money as if it's a commodity when money is

28:46 fundamentally a promise of a bank to you to to honor your liabilities to them.

28:51 Uh that's the actual nature of it.

28:53 So when Bitcoin was formed,

28:55 it was based on the same idea as a a similar similarum to gold.

29:00 The trouble is that gold actually does have

29:02 a value outside its use in the monetary system.

29:05 The production cost of gold is about $500 an ounce, I believe, at the moment.

29:10 And that's pretty it's pretty much its floor.

29:12 If you don't use it for money,

29:13 then this price will or or a a hedge against economic danger.

29:18 Then its value will fall back to its cost of production plus a margin.

29:22 It's used in, you know, all sorts of from jewelry to uh to to computer devices.

29:27 Bitcoin can only be used as either a store of value or a means of payment.

29:31 Now, we've had almost 20 years of Bitcoin now,

29:34 and it's still not used by any scale as a means of of of payment.

29:38 And the main thing is it's been treated as a store of value.

29:41 That's where the term hodddle comes from.

29:43 Hold on for dear life.

29:44 So the idea is you got a a a uh a a device which is supposed to be

29:50 replacing money but it's focusing upon the store of value

29:53 side of money rather than the use for exchanges.

29:56 Now if you focus upon the store of value you don't spend.

29:59 So on my feeling it's actually wrongly set up in the first place.

30:03 So it's only got value why people think it price is going to rise.

30:07 Now we're reaching the point where maybe you've got

30:09 as as much as its penetration will ever go.

30:12 And when it stops rising, then the only way to go is down.

30:16 Where I see the bottom isn't zero quite,

30:18 but it's at the stage where there are transactions you don't

30:20 want to put through the swift system or through the monetary system.

30:24 You know, illegal drug sales come to mind

30:26 and weapon sales and that sort of thing.

30:28 That's its flaw.

30:29 Way way below its currently what $60,000 price roughly.

30:33 And is the particular issue with Bitcoin

30:35 also that it it uses up enormous amounts

30:39 of energy and therefore there becomes a global

30:43 energy shortage that puts even more pressure on Bitcoin.

30:48 Yeah, absolutely.

30:49 Like I'm I'm I'm totally in the other side of the fence

30:51 on glo on global warming by the way to Stephen.

30:54 He probably knows that.

30:55 Um, but in that case,

30:56 if we are forced to say we've got to cut back on energy consumption,

31:00 then the two easiest things to end are international tourism and Bitcoin.

31:05 Stephen, oddly, I found I saw you nodding

31:09 pretty much throughout everything Steve Keane just said.

31:11 So, [laughter] have we reached a point of agreement here?

31:15 Well, maybe I'm not a Look,

31:17 I'm I'm glad that we have alternative private currencies out there,

31:21 which is exactly what Bitcoin is.

31:24 I I gotta tell you, I'm not an investor in I don't own bitcoins because I

31:27 don't understand it and I and it makes me nervous and I think it could crash.

31:32 But who knows?

31:32 I know people who invested in early who for now uh you know set a millionaire.

31:36 So uh what I would say though the reason I

31:39 favor these kind of alternative private currencies is for for too

31:44 long we've let central bankers control our money supply and they

31:47 haven't done a very good job of it with herkyjerky inflation.

31:51 And so I think this is a good way to keep By the way,

31:54 the central bankers hate cryptocurrencies

31:56 because they don't want the competition.

31:57 I'm kind of a libertarian,

31:58 so I like the idea that there that cryptos are out there,

32:01 but I'm not investing them myself.

32:04 Professor Jang, just finally, are we heading for a global recession?

32:08 Do you think?

32:10 I think that we are heading towards a global

32:11 depression and this is a process that could take decades.

32:15 We are in a new normal.

32:16 Uh we are un we are in the undiscovered country.

32:19 We are we are the level of destruction the level

32:23 of pain and suffering that we are moving towards is unimaginable.

32:28 So buckle up.

32:30 Can I can I answer that question?

32:34 Yes.

32:34 Look, we are entering the greatest period of um

32:38 productiv the greatest productivity revolution in the history of civilization.

32:42 nothing we'll over the next 10 years we'll never see anything like

32:46 what is coming with respect to um the this incredible robotics revolution.

32:52 So that's going to raise living standards.

32:55 This is like the the

32:57 Stephen because the big surely the big question with that is if the future

33:01 is robotic then aren't humans just going to get screwed in the process?

33:06 No, it's like saying, well, gee, isn't isn't, you know,

33:09 a uh a machine gonna gonna, you know, make people poor.

33:14 No, economic progress and productivity makes people richer, not poor.

33:18 And so, we're going to see um amazing and by the way,

33:22 not just in the area of production because,

33:24 you know, literally in the next 10 years,

33:25 we'll have technology uh through the blind people will be able to see,

33:29 people in wheelchairs,

33:30 we'll be able to rise up and walk, we'll be able to cure cancer.

33:33 I mean, this is an incredible future we're facing.

33:36 Uh, and it's going to not just be good for our health, but our wealth as well.

33:39 Okay.

33:40 So, we have two options.

33:41 Steve Keane, finally,

33:42 one is a global a global depression over the next few decades.

33:46 The other one is a global explosion of euphoric joy and success and

33:53 so where do you [laughter] remember the old movies?

33:57 Remember the old moving sliding doors?

33:58 Okay.

33:59 You make it through the train, you don't make it through the train.

34:01 I think we're at the sliding doors.

34:03 moment.

34:03 Uh I'm completely disagree with Stephen and we haven't talked

34:07 global warming and I think he's completely wrong on that front.

34:10 Global warming will end.

34:11 You don't think that?

34:13 Let me just say you not think

34:15 that the technology will requires energy requires energy.

34:20 One of my little short hands label that energy is a corpse.

34:23 Capital of that energy is a sculpture.

34:25 If you don't have the energy, the economy collapses.

34:28 We're seeing that right now with what the Iran war is doing.

34:31 we're going to see a 10 or 20% fall in energy levels.

34:34 Quite literally, when you look at the data,

34:35 a 10% fall in energy means a 10% fall in GDP.

34:39 That's as big a downturn as the Great Depression.

34:42 So, that alone is coming our way right now out

34:44 of this stupid war that should never have been commenced.

34:47 Then the long term, I would love us to get to that future.

34:49 I'm a technology designer myself.

34:51 I understand this area.

34:53 I would love to see it happen,

34:54 but it means we have to avoid catastrophe from global warming.

34:58 I know you believe that is it's a myth.

34:59 your side is onely into the public debate over that.

35:02 We're going to find out the hard way

35:04 in the next five years whether you're right or not.

35:06 That's the sliding door.

35:07 We could make it to the other side.

35:09 We have the future of plenty.

35:10 If we don't make the other side, we go back to cave.

35:13 Yeah.

35:14 Technology is the solution to climate change.

35:17 In other words, the only if it's really happening, the only way to divert it is

35:21 the only country that's getting there is China.

35:23 China is the one country that seems

35:25 to be pushing itself heavily in towards alternative energy,

35:28 both renewables and nuclear,

35:30 and it's even got the world's first relatively successful thorium reactor.

35:35 So, America's wasted its time invading other countries,

35:38 blowing up the rest of the planet,

35:39 trying to control the oil system rather than building its own infrastructure.

35:43 China is the winner.

35:44 You're saying China's going to use energy that's twice as expensive as oil,

35:48 gas, and coal, and somehow they're going to get rich on that.

35:51 I I would bet against that.

35:52 Yeah.

35:52 You know, people used to say the sun

35:54 doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow.

35:56 Now we're saying the straight up hormones

35:58 doesn't always flow and that's far more significant.

36:01 We're going to see a huge desire desire by people

36:04 the rest of the world to liberate themselves from reliance upon oil.

36:07 Whether you think that's economic or not is no point about being economic.

36:10 You know who you know who tried to do that?

36:12 Germany tried it.

36:13 Look at Germany today.

36:15 They're Germany also turned off it nuclear power.

36:18 Germany turned off its own nuclear power stations.

36:20 That was monumentally stupid.

36:21 Okay.

36:22 China is the one that's been developing the nuclear technology.

36:25 I think China remembers good.

36:27 Okay.

36:27 China remembers the opium wars far better than the rest of the world does.

36:30 They know they can't trust the West.

36:32 They're building self-sufficiency and technological leadership.

36:35 If you want to see technological leadership

36:37 and where robotics might lead to people benefiting,

36:40 it's going to be China and not America.

36:42 Okay, we got to leave it there.

36:43 Fascinating debate, gentlemen.

36:44 Thank you all very much.

36:45 I really enjoyed that.

36:48 Thank you.

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