Could Trump's redistricting push backfire on the GOP?

0:01 Semaphore Dave Weigel,

0:03 former senior advisor and spokesman for the Harris-Waltz campaign,

0:06 Adrian Elrod and former Ohio governor John Kasich,

0:08 now an MSNOW political analyst.

0:11 So Dave, I'm going to start with you.

0:13 Lots of redistricting all over the country.

0:15 What does that do DUE TO INDIVIDUAL RACES WHEN

0:19 YOU DILUTE EITHER THE DISTRICTS WITH A LOT MORE DEMOCRATS

0:24 OR DILUTE THEM WITH A LOT YOU HAVE TAKEN AWAY

0:28 THAT ONE SAFE DISTRICT THAT USED TO HOUSE THEM ALL.

0:32 THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MYSTERY IN WHAT'S

0:34 GOING TO HAPPEN IN THOSE RACES BECAUSE AT THIS MOMENT

0:37 OF POLITICAL polarization with the vote for every

0:40 office tracking pretty closely to the vote for president,

0:42 there is a science about how you can draw in people, split up a city,

0:47 draw in rural voters, et cetera, and predict how it's going to vote.

0:51 This is in I imagine we'll talk about Ohio.

0:53 Republicans had a chance to change the map constitutionally for this cycle.

0:59 They added some Republican voters to Marcy captor seats.

1:02 It's going to be hard to win.

1:03 They added some Republican voters to a seat in Cincinnati.

1:05 So it's harder for the Democrat to win that.

1:07 And so some of the subtext I think here is can Democrats run more

1:12 moderate candidates and take advantage of not

1:14 take advantage at least ameliorate what is

1:16 being done to the CERTAINLY THEY CAN'T RUN SAFE SEAT PROGRESSIVE CANDIDATES LIKE

1:21 THE ONES WHO ARE USED TO RUNNING IN SOME OF THE DISTRICTS BEING BLOWN UP.

1:24 IN THE LONGER RUN, IN 2028 POSSIBLY,

1:27 BUT BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF THE CALLET DECISION,

1:31 THESE DISTRICTS ARE BEING DRAWN WITHOUT MUCH TIME FOR ANYONE

1:34 TO GET INTO THESE RACES AND BUILD A NEW MESSAGE.

1:37 THERE ARE PEOPLE IN JIM CLIBRON'S EXAMPLE,

1:38 IF SOUTH CAROLINA SUCCEEDS IN DRAWING NEW SEATS FOR THIS CYCLE,

1:41 JIM CLIBRON WILL HAVE TO RUN IN A DISTRICT THAT HE WAS NOT

1:45 EXPECTING TO RUN IN AGAINST A REPUBLICAN WHO WILL JUMP IN WITH ADVANTAGE,

1:47 WITH KNOWLEDGE, BECAUSE REPUBLICANS ARE CIRCULATING THIS MAP WITH KNOWLEDGE

1:51 THAT THEY MIGHT GET RUN IN A SAFE SEAT.

1:52 THERE'S JUST NOT A LOT OF SURPRISE THAT PEOPLE CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF.

1:56 THEY KNOW WHO THEY KNOW WHO THESE VOTERS ARE

1:58 AND THEY KNOW WHO WANTS TO VOTE FOR A TRUMP CANDIDATE,

2:00 WHO WANTS TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT.

2:01 WHAT DO YOU DO, ADRIAN, IN A SITUATION LIKE THIS?

2:05 YEAH, IT'S A GREAT QUESTION.

2:06 I MEAN, A COUPLE OF THINGS.

2:07 NUMBER ONE, I THINK DAVE I THINK THEY JUST HIT IT ON THE MARK WHERE IF YOU CAN

2:10 RECRUIT MODERATE CANDIDATES THAT REALLY FIT THE PROFILE

2:12 OF SOME OF THESE DISTRICTS THAT ARE BECOMING MORE RED,

2:15 that's incredibly important.

2:17 And I think Democrats have done a good job across the board of doing that.

2:20 But, Katie, going forward, I mean,

2:21 this is what's so crazy about this whole situation.

2:24 I mean, number one, I think Democrats━I'm not going to speak for Republicans,

2:27 but I think Democrats are going to have to start, you know,

2:29 maybe creating a committee that is just

2:32 as equal to the Democratic congressional campaign committee

2:35 that will raise money and that will fight

2:37 tooth and nail in these states where Republicans,

2:40 especially the states that they control

2:43 when they are continuously going to gerrymand.

2:45 This is something that will likely start happening every single cycle, Katie,

2:49 not every 10 years, not even every four years, every two years.

2:52 So we're really in for a battle.

2:53 And number two, it really,

2:54 reinforces the fact that Democrats are going to have to focus

2:57 a lot more on winning some of these very close,

3:00 very narrow state legislatures where we're maybe one or two seats under.

3:03 We need to win back control of those state legislatures

3:04 so that we can control the redistricting process in those states.

3:08 But, you know, it was a blow to Democrats

3:10 last week losing the Virginia map that voters, by the way, voted for.

3:15 Three million voters voted to ratify that map.

3:17 Court overturned it.

3:19 That's something the court could have done before

3:20 voters actually went to the polls and voted.

3:22 That was a setback.

3:24 And secondly, you know,

3:25 the Supreme Court essentially undoing a major part of the Voting Rights Act.

3:30 It's just an effort that Democrats are going to have

3:32 to really ramp up and pay attention to going forward.

3:35 Do you buy the argument, Governor,

3:37 that this motivates voters against Republicans,

3:40 the voters maybe the ones that turned out

3:42 in Virginia or the ones that feel like they're

3:44 being duped in other states or the ones

3:46 that might be angry about the Voting Rights Act,

3:48 that instead of staying home, they might say, you know what?

3:51 I don't want to.

3:51 I don't.

3:52 I don't want to ignore this process.

3:54 This is motivating me to get out and WELL,

3:57 I THINK THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO GET PEOPLE MOTIVATED.

4:02 BY THE WAY, I THINK IT'S REALLY A TRAGEDY IF THE MINORITY

4:07 COMMUNITY IS NOT THEIR VOICE NEEDS TO BE HEARD AND IT WILL CREATE,

4:12 AND I THINK THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MOTIVATING.

4:16 BUT WHAT DID MARK TWEYNE USED TO SAY, HIS DEATH IS GREATLY EXAGGERATED?

4:21 I I hear the Democrats wringing their hands over what happened in Virginia.

4:24 I'm going to say it here,

4:25 as I say things way out sometimes that before they actually happen,

4:32 Democrats are going to win the House.

4:34 Frankly, the change in Virginia's, I think it's on the margin.

4:37 The voters are fired up in the Democratic ranks.

4:42 The Republicans are not excited.

4:45 Yeah, I think that the VIRGINIA BUSINESS MEANS THAT, YOU KNOW,

4:48 THERE'S THREE OR FOUR SEATS THAT...

4:50 AND BY THE WAY, EVEN IF THEY'RE GERRYMANDERED,

4:52 YOU STILL HAVE TO HAVE AN ELECTION IN THEM.

4:55 AND IF THEY'RE CLOSE, THAT'S NOT A BAD THING TO SEE POLITICS

4:58 IN AMERICA where voters have a choice, you know,

5:01 where it's not like a slam dunk,

5:03 like big-time wrestling where we know what the outcome is going to be.

5:06 We really don't.

5:07 But bottom line is, the economy is not performing as it should.

5:11 Gas prices are sky I DON'T THINK IT'S HIGH-HIGH.

5:12 PEOPLE DON'T THINK TRUMP IS FOCUSING AND DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO WIN THE HOUSE.

5:17 IT'S REALLY ABOUT HOW MUCH THEY GAIN RATHER THAN

5:20 DO THEY GAIN AND DO THEY WIN THE HOUSE?

5:23 YEAH, I MEAN, I GUESS, IS THIS A CHANCE FOR DEMOCRATS?

5:25 I MEAN, WE TOUCHED ON THIS.

5:27 IS THIS A CHANCE FOR DEMOCRATS TO RETHINK THE PARTY AND WHO THEY

5:31 SPEAK TO IN THE PARTY AND WHO THEY'RE GOING FOR IN the party?

5:35 Is it an opportunity for them, Adrian, to reach into the southern states?

5:40 The way that Donald Trump reached into the northeastern states to say,

5:44 these people aren't representing you.

5:45 I'm going to do a better job of it.

5:47 Can the Democrats go down into Mississippi, into Alabama, Tennessee,

5:50 Texas and say you've been misled for years and look what you've gotten.

5:56 Gas is $4 .50 a gallon.

5:58 We're in another war in Iran, et cetera, et etc.

6:02 Look, I think Katie, you just answered the question.

6:04 I am from the South and I think that the Democratic Party,

6:07 the National Democratic Party has long ignored the South for too long.

6:10 And so we are now seeing this play out

6:12 in real time when you THE SUPREME COURT HAS DONE IS

6:18 ENABLE REPUBLICANS TO REALLY GO IN AS WE'RE TALKING ABOUT

6:21 GERRYMANDER THESE AREAS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN STRONG MINORITY SUPPORT.

6:25 AND WE HAVE WE'LL HAVE TO GO BACK IN THERE PRETTY QUICKLY,

6:30 KATIE, AND REALLY DO SOME MAJOR, MAJOR WORK.

6:33 AND, YES, YOU'RE EXACTLY RIGHT.

6:35 I MEAN, SO MANY VOTERS IN THE SOUTH, ESPECIALLY IN THE RULE PARTS,

6:38 HAVE BEEN VOTING against their interests for a long time.

6:40 We could spend a long time, Katie,

6:42 which we don't have right now, talking about why that's the case.

6:45 But a lot of people just want to be talked to.

6:47 You've got to go into these areas.

6:48 Democrats have got to go into these deep red, rural parts of the South.

6:52 and have these conversations with the voters.

6:54 It's something that I will actually say Trump did well in 2015, 2016.

6:58 He actually went to areas where no one from any party

7:01 had gone to for a long time because they were solidly red.

7:04 So Democrats have I WANT TO SAY SOMETHING THE GOVERNOR SAID, HE'S EXACTLY RIGHT.

7:10 ALL OF THE ISSUES FROM AFFORDABILITY TO THE WAR

7:12 IN IRAN ARE ON THE SIDE OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS.

7:15 WE'VE ALSO OUTPERFORMED IN ALMOST EVERY SPECIAL ELECTION,

7:18 EITHER FLIP SEATS OR WE HAVE NARROWED THE MARGIN

7:22 IN EVERY SPECIAL ELECTION THAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE NOVEMBER 2024.

7:25 SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE'RE JUST GOING TO HAVE TO WIN AT THE BALLOT BOX.

7:28 WHAT ABOUT THE BACKLASH IN THE FUTURE?