How Iran Changed the war in Ukraine - Russia’s Offensive Is Failing

0:11 Without a doubt, global instability is on the rise.

0:13 And if you think about it,

0:15 it all started with Russia annexing Crimea practically with impunity.

0:20 Fast forward 12 years,

0:21 and we now have the biggest war in Europe since World War II,

0:25 the biggest escalation in the Middle East in decades,

0:28 another war in Iran, key trading routes being blockaded,

0:31 NATO facing an existential crisis and many

0:33 other conflicts and crises occurring around the world.

0:37 Today, we continue to describe the war in Ukraine

0:56 and discuss the impact of the war in Iran on it.

1:21 BATTLEFIELD As usual,

1:25 let’s start by looking at what happened on the battlefield in the past month.

1:29 And to be frank, not much has changed in March.

1:32 Ukrainians claim that Russia has started another grand offensive,

1:36 which will make sure that the boys are

1:38 home by Easter or Christmas at the latest.

1:39 But as with many previous attempts,

1:41 this campaign has also started with many losses and barely any progress.

1:46 The chief of Ukraine’s unmanned forces, Robert Brovdy,

1:49 aka Madyar, claimed that on March 17,

1:52 Russians launched their Spring-Summer offensive of 2026

1:55 by attempting a breakthrough on the Rodynske-Huliapole front,

1:58 trying to take advantage of the fog.

2:01 According to Madyar, the initial assault was a disaster with Russians

2:05 failing to gain any ground despite major personnel losses,

2:09 and there is some video footage confirming heavy equipment losses.

2:12 Since then, they have captured Hryshyne,

2:14 advanced on Zalyznuchne and made some progress

2:17 in gray areas along the whole front, but this is hardly a breakthrough.

2:21 There have also been reports of Russian

2:23 attempts to attack Orikhiv from the South,

2:25 but they have been repelled there as well.

2:28 Meanwhile, Ukraine continued its successful counterattacks north of Huliapole.

2:32 In March, the 1st Separate Assault Regiment, the 95th Air Assault Brigade

2:38 and other Ukrainian forces liberated Novohryhorivka,

2:40 Kalynivske, Stepove, Ternove and Berezove.

2:43 There have already been numerous reports claiming

2:46 that the Ukrainian army's success in this sector has forced

2:49 the Russian command to redeploy units from the Pokrovsk

2:52 sector and the Kherson front to stabilize the situation.

2:56 The Donbas Fortress Belt remains the other key target for the Russian army.

3:00 And they have failed to achieve any meaningful progress here either.

3:03 Russians have managed to expand the grey zone south of Kostiantynivka,

3:07 but the battles are largely confined to the H20 and T0504 highways.

3:11 So far, Kostiantynivka proper is under solid Ukrainian control.

3:16 A similar dynamic is observed on the northern tip of the Fortress Belt.

3:20 The Russian army needs to capture

3:22 Lyman to move further southwest toward Sloviansk,

3:24 but the Russian pincer movement's advance has

3:27 been slowed by the Ukrainians in recent months.

3:29 On March 19, the elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 20th

3:34 Guards Combined Arms Army launched a relatively major assault in this sector,

3:38 sending armored vehicles into attack, a rare sight these days.

3:42 But this assault was defeated.

3:44 However, Russians continued advancing on Sloviansk from the Southeast.

3:48 After capturing the heavily fortified town of Siversk,

3:51 the Russians have achieved a relatively steady

3:53 westward advance towards Sloviansk in the past weeks,

3:56 which continued in March as well.

3:58 THE WAR IN IRAN.

3:59 ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS Meanwhile, the peace negotiations,

4:00 which were not looking promising anyway because

4:03 of the gulf in Russia’s and Ukraine’s positions,

4:05 have taken a further step back due to the war in Iran.

4:09 The most realistic scenario is that the war

4:11 in Ukraine will continue for the foreseeable future.

4:14 And as always, the ability to maintain the capacity

4:17 to fight long wars depends on the economy,

4:20 force generation, military production,

4:22 strong alliances and steady morale at home.

4:24 Russia has been able to maintain stable manpower generation since

4:28 2023 by recruiting 30k to 45k contract soldiers every month,

4:34 which is possible because, well, Russia is a wealthy country and still earns

4:37 a lot of money from selling oil and gas.

4:41 Sure, Russia has been experiencing economic difficulties, but thus far,

4:44 they are not at a level that would

4:46 prevent Russia from continuing to recruit men en masse.

4:49 They have also got enough money to steadily produce missiles,

4:52 drones and other deadly weapons.

4:54 But Ukraine has also enhanced its

4:57 capacity to hurt Russia with long-range strikes,

4:59 specifically its military production sites and oil and gas infrastructure.

5:03 According to Russia’s former defense minister Shoigu,

5:06 Ukraine launched 23,000 drones and missiles on Russian targets in 2025,

5:12 a massive increase from 6,200 launches in 2024.

5:15 In March, they made several successful missile strikes to destroy a Shahed

5:20 storage depot at Donetsk airport and severely

5:22 damage a microchip factory in Bryansk.

5:25 The latter is particularly important,

5:27 since microchips are used for a variety of military purposes,

5:31 including for precision-guided weaponry, air defense,

5:34 secure communication, surveillance and so on.

5:36 But arguably, the crown jewel of Ukrainian long-range strikes in March

5:41 was the attack on Russia’s oil export ports in Primorsk and Ust-Luga.

5:45 In combination with the earlier damage to the Druzhba

5:48 pipeline running through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia,

5:50 along with damage to the port of Novorossiysk

5:52 and the regular seizure of Russian oil tankers,

5:55 Ukraine has done a very good job of limiting Russia’s oil revenues.

5:59 According to Reuters calculations, this strategy has temporarily shut down

6:03 40% of Russia’s crude oil export capabilities.

6:06 At the time, when oil prices skyrocketed due to the war in Iran.

6:11 Another very curious political development in Russia is the story

6:15 reported by the independent Russian media outlet The Bell,

6:18 which claimed that during his March 26

6:20 meeting with top Russian businessmen and oligarchs,

6:23 Putin asked them to chip in for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.

6:27 The story, corroborated by Financial Times sources,

6:30 reports that Rosneft chief Igor Sechin came up with this idea.

6:35 Apparently, one of the wealthiest Russian oligarchs,

6:37 Suleiman Kerimo,v immediately offered to donate

6:40 100 billion rubles- 1.22 billion dollars.

6:42 Just to give you an idea of how much money we are talking about.

6:47 If true, this is an important development because of the peculiarity

6:50 of a social contract between Putin and Russian oligarchs.

6:53 To give you context, following the fall of the USSR, Soviet industry bosses,

6:59 enterprise directors, bureaucrats, late-Soviet-era entrepreneurs,

7:01 and people from a few other general groups

7:04 took advantage of the painful transition from a state-run

7:07 economy to capitalism to enrich themselves beyond

7:10 their wildest dreams in Russia in the 1990s.

7:14 With extreme wealth came considerable political power,

7:17 which many oligarchs readily used to expand their influence.

7:20 But the new Russian president, Vladimir Putin,

7:22 has never been one to like sharing political power,

7:25 and early in his reign, he met with a large group of oligarchs.

7:29 There, he offered them a deal:

7:31 keep out of politics, do not challenge my authority,

7:33 and I will allow you to keep what

7:36 you have earned or stolen during the wild 1990s.

7:39 Very few, like Boris Berezovsky, Viktor Gusinsky, and Mikhail Khodorkovsky,

7:44 dared to defy Putin and suffered the consequences in the form of arrest,

7:49 asset forfeiture, or exile.

7:50 The vast majority of oligarchs, though,

7:52 agreed and continued to thrive under Putin.

7:55 They were occasionally asked to invest in major projects

7:58 like the Sochi Olympics or the construction in Crimea,

8:01 but this one feels totally different.

8:03 Oleg Deripaska may be the only oligarch who

8:06 has publicly spoken out against the war in Ukraine, but without a doubt,

8:10 he is not the only one who opposes the war, resents being sanctioned,

8:14 and is now being asked to give money for Putin’s personal imperial project.

8:18 As things stand, this may not mean much,

8:21 since Putin remains in total control of Russia.

8:24 But if such voluntary-compulsory donations are demanded frequently,

8:28 the richest class in Russia may actually question

8:31 whether the existing social contract still suits them.

8:34 In any case, it is something worth monitoring.

8:36 For now, the war in Iran has added a whole new dimension to the war in Ukraine.

8:41 First of all, it is a notable positive

8:43 for Putin and Russia from a public relations standpoint.

8:46 The attack of the United States and Israel

8:49 on Iran is illegal under international law,

8:51 and it gives the Kremlin propaganda a lot of ammunition

8:54 when the next time somebody condemns their invasion of Ukraine.

8:58 Second, the United States getting bogged down in Iran

9:01 without a clear endgame is also a plus for Russia.

9:04 Even though the US military is performing much

9:06 better than Russia through a purely conventional military lens,

9:10 this has not been enough to bring the Americans

9:12 to the assumed strategic finish line of the war.

9:15 The Kremlin can now more comfortably claim that it is not

9:18 the only superpower getting in trouble after attacking a smaller nation.

9:22 But along with such intangible considerations,

9:25 there are also very real and tangible consequences

9:27 of the war in Iran on the war in Ukraine.

9:30 In terms of military-political impact,

9:31 we can mention the excessive reliance of the US and Gulf

9:35 countries on Patriot air defense to counter the Iranian drone threat.

9:39 Zelensky claimed that the US and Gulf countries have used 800

9:43 Patriot missiles in merely three days to shoot down Iranian Shahed drones,

9:48 more than Ukraine has used throughout its war.

9:51 Using Patriot missiles, which have a reported cost of 4 to 7 million dollars,

9:56 to destroy drones, which cost around 50,000 dollars,

9:59 is not feasible in the long term.

10:01 Not just from the financial standpoint, but also because the United States

10:05 produces only 600-700 Patriot missiles per year.

10:08 At the current rate of use,

10:10 the existing stockpile of Patriot missiles may be depleted

10:13 to the point where they are no longer sold to Ukraine.

10:16 And Russia recognizes this.

10:18 In March, they launched more ballistic missiles in packages to force

10:22 the Ukrainian air defense to exhaust their Patriot missiles faster.

10:26 If the war in Iran continues for a few more months,

10:29 this may turn into a problem for Ukraine.

10:32 There are conflicting reports on whether the United

10:34 States will continue providing Patriot missiles to Ukraine.

10:38 Several media reports have claimed that the US will put the delivery of at least

10:41 some of the weapons purchased by European countries

10:44 from America for Ukraine within the PURL framework,

10:47 including Patriot missiles, on hold.

10:49 But Zelensky refuted these claims and expressed

10:52 gratitude to Trump for continuing military supplies.

10:55 However, the war in Iran, specifically the threat caused by Iranian drones,

11:00 has created a great opportunity for Ukraine as well.

11:03 Ukraine has a unique experience of countering

11:06 more advanced versions of Shaheds almost every day,

11:08 most recently in packages of hundreds.

11:11 They have developed drone interceptors that are cheaper

11:14 than the Shaheds they need to shoot down.

11:16 One of Ukraine’s premier drone manufacturers, SkyFall,

11:19 has estimated that they could scale up their production of drone interceptors

11:23 to 50k per month to cover Ukraine’s needs and then to export the surplus.

11:27 Trump may think that they know “more about drones than anybody”

11:31 and that “the last person” they “need help from is Zelensky”,

11:35 but the Gulf countries quite clearly disagree.

11:38 Ukraine has already sent more than 200 military specialists to the Gulf

11:42 countries to discuss cooperation and ways of countering Iranian drones.

11:46 Then at the end of March, Zelensky toured the Gulf countries and signed 10-year

11:51 defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE,

11:54 which he hailed as “historic.” According to Ukraine’s president,

11:58 they will provide drone interceptors and related technology,

12:01 naval drones, electronic warfare systems and related military equipment.

12:05 What Ukraine will get in return has not been made official,

12:09 but there are reports and speculations that Kyiv will receive

12:12 Patriot missiles or perhaps even Qatar’s Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets.

12:16 This is a savvy bit of business by Ukraine.

12:19 They have recognized the opportunity created by their unique military expertise

12:23 and another crisis in the Middle East to strike an impressive deal,

12:27 which will expand their foreign influence and international standing.

12:31 Meanwhile, Russia continues military cooperation with its ally in Iran.

12:35 They have apparently been providing intelligence to Iran to help

12:38 them with targeting America’s military assets in the region.

12:41 They are also supplying Tehran with unspecified drones,

12:44 according to the Financial Times.

12:46 In terms of the economic impact of the war in Iran so far,

12:50 Russia is obviously benefiting from the hike in oil prices.

12:53 A few weeks before Ukraine’s strikes on Ust-Luga and Primorsk oil ports,

12:57 the Financial Times estimated that Russia had been earning

13:00 an extra 150 million dollars per day from oil sales.

13:04 Of course, the American decision to temporarily ease

13:07 sanctions against Russian oil has also been helpful.

13:11 DIPLOMACY.

13:11 CONCLUSION It is clear that Ukraine is not a priority for Trump right now.

13:14 Thus, as we mentioned earlier, there has not been much movement

13:18 in the United States-mediated negotiations to end the war.

13:21 Instead, we heard more unfriendly tirades from Trump about Zelensky and Ukraine.

13:26 By now, it should not be a secret that the US

13:29 president is not especially fond of his Ukrainian colleague,

13:32 as Trump blames Zelensky for not

13:34 accepting Putin’s demand to withdraw from Donbas.

13:37 In his interview, Zelensky publicly confirmed that the US

13:40 is ready to provide unspecified security guarantees,

13:43 only if Ukraine agrees to leave Donbas.

13:46 Clearly, for Trump, it is easier to pressure Ukraine,

13:49 which still depends on the United States in terms of some military supplies,

13:53 than Putin, who could just end the war

13:55 by agreeing to a ceasefire along the current frontline.

13:58 For Trump, just ending the war, no matter how,

14:01 is more important than ending the war in a just manner.

14:04 At this point, the EU has become Ukraine's main ally.

14:08 They pay for the American weapons to supply

14:10 Ukraine and provide their own military aid.

14:13 For instance, in March, Germany provided Patriot missiles,

14:16 an additional 200 million euros for air defense and drone funding,

14:20 while Spain signed a defense agreement with Kyiv,

14:23 which envisages joint military production.

14:25 But it is not all rosy in Kyiv’s relations with the EU.

14:30 Despite earlier pledging a 90 billion-euro

14:32 loan to ensure proper financing for Ukraine,

14:35 Hungary is still preventing the funds from being sent to Kyiv.

14:38 The prime minister, Orban, who has used the war in Ukraine as one

14:42 of the central campaign topics for the upcoming pivotal elections,

14:45 continues blocking the loan,

14:46 blaming Ukraine for the refusal to repair the Druzhba pipeline.

14:50 This pipeline, delivering the Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia,

14:53 was damaged by Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory in 2025

14:57 and Russian strikes on the Ukrainian side of the pipeline in 2026.

15:02 Zelensky has acknowledged that he is not keen on repairing the Druzhba pipeline,

15:06 instead offering delivery via the Odesa-Brody pipeline.

15:08 But he may have taken a step back

15:11 to ensure the vital 90 billion-euro loan is delivered.

15:14 On March 16, the president of the European Council, Von der Leyen,

15:18 stated that Ukraine has accepted the EU’s offer

15:21 to provide technical support and funding for repairs,

15:24 but as of March 31, the payment of the EU loan has still not been resolved.

15:29 As always, let’s conclude our video by reviewing visually

15:32 confirmed equipment losses for both sides as of March 31,

15:37 according to the Oryx blog.

15:39 Russia has lost at least 4371 tanks,

15:43 10742 vehicles, 318 command posts and communication stations,

15:48 2315 artillery systems and vehicles, 181 aircraft and 172 helicopters.

15:55 Ukraine has lost at least 1405 tanks,

15:59 6233 vehicles, 88 command posts and communication stations,

16:04 1232 artillery systems and vehicles, 114 aircraft and 56 helicopters.

16:12 Further updates on the Russian invasion of Ukraine are on the way.

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