'Get inspectors back': 4-star General reacts after Trump says ceasefire on 'massive life support'

0:00 House correspondent and MSNOW contributor Peter Baker,

0:03 MSNOW contributor Inzamam Rashid in Dubai and retired four-star general,

0:08 and MSNOW military analyst, General Barry McCaffrey.

0:12 The president keeps saying, Peter,

0:13 that they're never going to be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.

0:17 And, you know, David Rhodes has been on the show a lot of times,

0:20 other analysts have been saying the same thing.

0:22 If you don't want them to have a nuclear weapon, you've got to do regime change.

0:26 This regime is never going to give up a nuclear weapon.

0:30 Yeah.

0:31 And when the president says that they keep changing their mind,

0:33 there's no indication that they ever changed their mind.

0:35 It's the only indication the president has

0:37 changed how he characterizes what they are saying.

0:40 Remember, the president said multiple times, oh,

0:42 Iran has agreed to give up its nuclear program.

0:45 There's no evidence that he ever agreed to that.

0:46 Only he has said that, and they've made

0:48 very clear that they're not willing to do that.

0:50 And I think you're right to point out this is without regime change.

0:53 It's hard to imagine that they would.

0:55 This is not a different regime.

0:56 It's the same regime, just different players in there, right?

0:58 It's not Ayatollah obviously he's been killed.

1:01 A number of others have been killed,

1:02 but literally it's Khamenei's son is now the supreme leader

1:06 and others in the IRGC are clearly still in force.

1:08 And they are very committed to the nuclear project because

1:11 this is an extension as they see it of their sovereignty.

1:14 So they have been willing in the past

1:15 to accept some limits on the nuclear program.

1:19 That was the Obama deal in 2015, but not to say that they're going to get rid

1:23 of it all together and there's no evidence that they ever will.

1:24 So what kind of deal can the president strike if they're not willing

1:28 to give it up and he's not

1:30 willing to accept something short of complete abandonment?

1:33 That's the real rub here.

1:34 And that leaves the president in a box.

1:36 Does that mean he wants to go back to full-scale WAIL MILITARY OPERATIONS AND IF

1:41 THAT'S THE CASE IS THERE ANY EVIDENCE

1:42 THAT THAT'S GOING TO CHANGE ANYBODY'S MIND?

1:44 IRANIANS THINK THEY THEY ARE WILLING TO HOLD OUT

1:48 FOR THE BEST DEAL THEY THINK THEY CAN GET.

1:52 GENERAL, LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT THE NUCLEAR

1:55 OR THE ENREACHED GERANIUM THAT REMAINS UNDER THE RUBBLE.

1:58 AGAIN, IF DONALD Trump wants no nuclear missiles,

2:01 no nuclear capability by the Iranians.

2:03 What about all that stuff that still remains?

2:06 The Iranians apparently say they can't get to it.

2:08 Does that mean that Donald Trump would send in troops?

2:10 And how how risky is that?

2:15 Well, we're in a terrible box on this entire nuclear issue.

2:19 The only way to delay an Iranian

2:21 nuclear program is to get international inspectors packing

2:25 on the ground with robust rules of engagement and to get out of the country,

2:31 not just 1 ,000 pounds of 60 percent H-E-U,

2:34 but also all the 20 percent enrichment,

2:38 which is only a fairly short industrial process to get it to nuclear capability.

2:45 So, it's really a problem.

2:47 think going in with U .S.

2:49 military forces on the ground, is not possible.

2:53 I think it would be a division-sized operation or more,

2:57 massive commitment of air power,

3:00 an isolated airhead deep in the Iranian country.

3:05 There may be three locations where new physical material is stored,

3:11 not just the Isfahan facility.

3:14 So I don't think it's doable.

3:16 At the end of the day, the Iranians,

3:20 despite their massive military loss to 13 ,000 airstrikes,

3:26 know we cannot change the regime,

3:29 open the Gulf or end the nuclear program with airpower.

3:33 So, Mr.

3:34 Trump's got to connect diplomacy to the military equation.

3:41 Yeah, and if the deal on the table

3:44 is suspending uranium enrichment for 10, 15, 20 years,

3:48 there is a question of whether that is much better, if it is better at all,

3:53 from where we were before, especially Enzimam, you're on the strait.

3:57 If Iran maintains control of the strait and all analysis has said that there's

4:03 no way that Iran is not going to use that leverage going forward.

4:09 Well, Iran's goal is to try and get out of this.

4:13 And some I'm going to sorry again.

4:15 Iran's goal is to try and get out of this conflict a lot in a better

4:20 position than it was when it started it two months ago, or when the U .S.

4:24 and Israel started it.

4:26 Now, what the IRGC have actually said this evening in response

4:30 to particularly the nuclear point and what

4:32 they've said in that Iranian response.

4:36 They've actually said that contrary to claims by some Western media outlets,

4:40 the Iranian text contains no provision for accepting

4:43 the removal of enriched nuclear materials from the country.

4:47 In its proposed plan to receive its blocked funds,

4:51 Iran has specified a set time frame.

4:54 The United States had written in its

4:56 plan that it would release Iran's blocked funds,

4:59 but Iran has emphasized that these funds

5:01 must be released within a specific period.

5:04 I think what is interesting is that this whole talk of the nuclear situation,

5:10 if I may just on that point, is that in this pre-proposal,

5:13 that's what the US has put in order.

5:16 It needs to have the nuclear discussions on the table in order for the two

5:20 sides to meet in person and to have these negotiations over this 30 day period.

5:24 And I think the gentlemen on our panel

5:25 are probably more experienced in negotiating than I am.

5:29 The most I've done is probably in a bazaar in Istanbul somewhere.

5:32 But you've got to have negotiations face-to-face.

5:36 And I think that's what Iran and the U .S.

5:39 want to try and do.

5:41 And then they can thrash out the details around Iran's nuclear program.

5:46 They've said all along that they don't want

5:49 to create a nuclear whether you believe them or not.

5:52 They do not want their nuclear infrastructure touched,

5:56 but they may come to the negotiation table

5:58 and discuss whether it is offset to a third party,

6:02 to another country, whether they stop enriching

6:05 uranium for a certain period of time.

6:08 But in order to have those discussions, the two sides need to meet.

6:11 But you're right, Katie.

6:12 Look, the Straits of Hormuz wasn't an issue before this conflict started.

6:15 It's a huge issue now.

6:16 It's a massive sticking point.

6:18 Iran can effectively take control of that waterway whenever they want

6:22 to, even long after a deal has been signed and agreed upon.

6:27 And right now with the U .S.

6:28 blockade in force, yes, we're not seeing as many ships pass through.

6:32 And yes, effectively that blockade is working to some point.

6:36 But the U .S.

6:37 can't be here forever and they won't be here forever.

6:40 And Iran can essentially take back control of that waterway if they want to.

6:43 Are there negotiations happening or ongoing, Peter?

6:48 Is there something happening behind the scenes?

6:51 Well, that's the thing you never know for sure, right?

6:53 I mean, obviously the Obama administration

6:54 negotiated in secret with But, you know,

7:10 there are other intermediaries the Trump

7:12 administration could use if it's choosing to.

7:16 The issue seems to be, you know, one of expectations.

7:20 Trump is acting as if he's won Iran is acting as if he hasn't won.

7:25 And as long as they're starting off from two different sets of expectations,

7:29 it's awfully hard to meet in the middle here.

7:31 And there is no middle on the issue

7:32 of whether or not they have a nuclear program.

7:34 If the goal is as President Trump has said, is they have none.

7:37 And Iran is insistent that it has the sovereign right to have one.

7:41 Now, the Obama deal in 2015 said they could not do enrichment of anything

7:46 other than low-enrichment uranium for 15 IF TRUMP IS TALKING ABOUT 20 YEARS,

7:50 IT'S OF A PIECE, RIGHT?

7:52 SLIGHTLY BETTER OBVIOUSLY THAN AN OBAMA DEAL BUT IT'S OF A PIECE.

7:55 IT'S NOT ACTUALLY BEING RID OF THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM FOREVER.

7:57 IT'S SIMPLY SAYING WE'RE GOING TO HOLD OFF FOR A WHILE AND TRY TO BUY TIME.

8:00 WHAT ABOUT THE SUBJECT OF MUNITIONS?

8:03 WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS A LOT, GENERAL.

8:04 LET ME PLAY SENATOR MARK KELLY TALKING ABOUT

8:07 A BRIEFING HE GOT FROM THE PENTAGON ON WHAT WE'VE USED AND WHAT WE HAVE WE HAVE

8:15 BEEN BRIEFED BY THE PENTAGON ON SPECIFIC MUNITIONS.

8:19 IT HAS BEEN PRETTY DETAILED ON TOMAHAWKS, ATTACKEMPS, SM3s,

8:24 THAT ROUNDS, Patriot rounds, so those interceptor rounds to defend ourselves.

8:29 And the numbers are I think it's fair to say it's shocking.

8:33 The how deep we have gone into these magazines.

8:37 MUNITIONS ARE DEPLETED, YOU MAY HAVE SEEN ME ASK THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

8:41 THIS QUESTION ABOUT HOW LONG IT'S GOING TO TAKE TO REPLENISH.

8:44 WE'RE TALKING ABOUT YEARS.

8:47 EXPLAIN THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THAT FOR ME, TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF THE GENERAL?

8:49 WELL, I THINK TRYING TO DETER CHINESE AGGRESSION AGAINST TAIWAN

8:53 AND INDEED in the South China Sea requires a credible U .S.

8:59 Navy and airpower, in particular, presence in the Pacific Rim.

9:03 A lot of that's built around these smart munitions,

9:06 not just the offensive munitions like

9:09 Tomahawk and the Army's new long-range rocket,

9:12 but also defensive missiles to allow the Navy to get in from 200,

9:16 300 miles out and actually affect a potential Chinese military operation.

9:21 It's a problem.

9:22 It's not just our dependence on those missiles,

9:24 because we're also rapidly fielding directed energy

9:29 weapons that are already deployed in the Gulf.

9:33 So I don't think it's a game changer necessarily,

9:37 but we've had a 20-year underinvestment

9:42 in defense industry and in particular munition STOCKPILING.