Ukraine Is Winning the Drone War - Russia’s 2026 Offensive Is Failing

0:11 As we enter May, we can confidently say that 2026

0:14 has not been going according to the Kremlin’s plan.

0:17 They have yet to make any meaningful progress towards their goals this year.

0:21 They are starting to lose the drone game to Ukraine once again.

0:25 They are experiencing increasing problems with recruiting new soldiers.

0:28 For the first time in a while,

0:30 it feels like the time is not working in Russia’s favor.

0:34 Let’s discuss this and other things related to the war in Ukraine,

0:38 which occurred in April, in this video.

0:46 BATTLEFIELD Russia made slow, costly,

1:25 but steady progress on the battlefield in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025.

1:30 There were points when the Russian army had actually

1:33 made a quick advance in a short period of time,

1:35 triggering fears of the collapse of Ukrainian defenses.

1:38 In addition, Russia’s regular missile and drone attacks

1:41 on Ukraine’s energy grid looked more and more threatening,

1:44 with the energy collapse of Ukraine seeming like a realistic possibility.

1:48 So, it appeared as though in 2026,

1:51 Russia will do more of the same against Ukraine’s constantly

1:55 pressured defenses to attempt the capture of their next goals,

1:58 which presumably are: the city of Zaporizhzhia,

2:01 Orikhiv, Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk, Lyman and Kupiansk.

2:04 Instead, the third of the year is gone and territorial

2:08 changes in Russia’s favor in 2026 have been negligible.

2:12 Moreover, the Ukrainian army is not merely sitting back;

2:16 they are conducting localized counter-attacks to deny Russia

2:18 momentum and force it to alter its plans.

2:21 For instance, it is reported that following Ukraine’s recent

2:24 successful counter-attacks at the Oleksandrivka sector have forced the Russian

2:28 command to divert several brigades from the Dobropillya sector

2:31 to the Oleksandrivka sector Regarding May 2026 and battlefield changes,

2:36 there is not much to report.

2:38 On the Zaporizhzhia front, Russians have not made any progress at all,

2:42 whether towards the city of Zaporizhzhia or Orikihiv.

2:45 Russia’s three naval infantry divisions have gained

2:48 a little ground in the Huliapole sector towards Myrne,

2:50 Zaliznychne and Sviatopetrivka.

2:52 Heavy battles are also reported around Hirke and Zelene.

2:57 This sector of the battlefield remains one of the most problematic for Ukraine,

3:01 however they are not allowing quick and easy victories to the Russian army.

3:04 In the Pokrovsk sector, the Russian army is busy consolidating its previous

3:09 gains with small advances reported around Hryshyne and Rodynske.

3:13 In the Kostiantynivka sector,

3:14 Russia’s 25th Motorized Division has been banging its head

3:18 against the Fortress Belt of Donbas for months now.

3:21 Both sides have made minimal gains

3:23 in this area without really changing the status quo.

3:25 We can expect the Russians to ramp

3:28 up pressure around Kostiantynivka in the upcoming months.

3:30 The same is true for the Sloviansk sector.

3:33 And this is where the Ukrainian situation is getting worse.

3:36 In May, the Russian army made progress towards

3:39 Rai-Oleksandrivka and in the area around the M03 highway.

3:42 They have also captured heights around Pryvillia and Holubivka,

3:46 which has enabled them to better surveil

3:48 the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk area and has complicated Ukraine’s logistics.

3:52 Around Lyman, the Russian offensive has not only stopped but has

3:56 actually surrendered some ground to the Ukrainian army in April,

3:59 with the pincers of their attack closing.

4:01 Russians have also captured portions of the border areas,

4:04 but it is hard to see any military utility in these attacks.

4:08 The most likely explanation is that the Russian army is trying

4:11 to fulfil Putin’s political goal of creating a buffer zone on the border.

4:15 And it is simply impossible for the Ukrainian

4:18 army to man all the vast border area.

4:20 Of course, there is also the shared border with Belarus,

4:23 which served as a staging ground for the offensive

4:25 on Kyiv at the beginning of the war.

4:27 It has been quiet since the Ukrainian victory in the battle of Kyiv.

4:31 But this may change.

4:32 According to Zelensky, Russia is actively building roads leading to Ukraine

4:37 and artillery positions on the border in Belarus.

4:40 This may be a preparation for another attack on Kyiv,

4:43 possibly involving the Belarusian army.

4:45 But currently, no other indicators of this, including

4:48 large military deployments to the border, are being reported.

4:52 You may remember that in 2023-2024,

4:55 rumors about the impending Russian attack on Kyiv

4:57 from Belarus swirled on a regular occasion, but no such thing transpired.

5:01 It is unlikely that Russia would attempt another offensive on Kyiv at the time,

5:06 when it is struggling to gain anything meaningful in Donbas and elsewhere.

5:10 So, the Russian rate of advance has slowed down considerably.

5:14 But why, after a relatively successful 2025,

5:16 when it seemed like Russia would continue making progress on the battlefield,

5:21 have they suddenly stalled in 2026?

5:23 One of the obvious causes is that Starlink

5:26 is no longer available to the Russian army.

5:28 It has created major problems for Russian communication on the ground.

5:33 Moreover, it has created challenges for Russian drone operators.

5:36 Now, a drone operator sees the enemy, but the lack of a connection prevents

5:41 him from sending the image to the decision-makers.

5:43 Another big reason for Russia’s problems is

5:45 Ukraine reestablishing its advantage in the drone game.

5:48 Part of it is due to the change in tactics.

5:51 Previously, the main focus of Ukraine’s drone operators

5:54 was to target Russian troops assaulting Ukrainian positions.

5:58 Now, Ukrainian strike drones primarily attack deeper targets.

6:01 Russian frontline logistics.

6:03 Concentration of forces preparing to go on the attack.

6:06 According to a Russian military blogger, at this point,

6:09 8 or 9 out of every 10 Russian

6:12 losses occur before they even reach the frontline.

6:14 This has been made possible by the expanded range of Ukrainian drones.

6:19 It is reported that they can fly 2.5-3

6:22 times farther than the most common Russian fibre-optic drones.

6:25 As a result, Ukraine now has more capacity to strike mid-range targets.

6:30 Ukraine’s commander in chief, Syrskyi, stated that in March 2026,

6:35 Ukraine conducted more than 350 mid-range strikes targeting Russia’s logistics,

6:39 command posts and fuel depots.

6:41 Hence, now the Russian unit, which was supposed to assault Ukrainian positions,

6:46 is unable to do so because it has lost its supplies.

6:49 Stop the attacks before they even happen.

6:52 Ukraine now also has more strike drones than Russia.

6:55 This is reported by both Russian and Ukrainian sources,

6:58 including Zelensky’s aide, Pavlo Palisa.

7:00 He claims that Ukraine now has 1.3 strike drones to every Russian strike drone.

7:06 Another difference is the mass production of AI-operated drones,

7:09 which have the advantage of being resistant to jamming.

7:13 A crucial underlying cause here is the difference

7:15 in the nature of drone production in these two countries.

7:19 Ukrainian drone production is very decentralized.

7:21 Different companies, big and small,

7:23 innovate and produce new drones based on battlefield feedback,

7:27 enabling quicker adaptation.

7:29 Once these new drones prove their worth, mass production ensues.

7:33 In Russia, by contrast, military production,

7:36 including drone production, is extremely centralized,

7:39 which slows down the innovation and adoption of new or upgraded drones.

7:43 As a result of this newly re-established advantage,

7:46 drones are once again the deadliest weapon

7:49 in the hands of Ukraine, even more so now.

7:52 According to Zelensky, in March,

7:54 drone strikes killed or wounded close to 40k Russian soldiers,

7:58 while artillery and other strikes were responsible for 1363 casualties.

8:02 You can take statements about enemy casualties with a grain of salt;

8:07 the interesting part here is the ratio.

8:10 Drones are 30 times more likely to kill than artillery right now in this war.

8:15 Previously, there were many concerns about Ukraine’s artillery shell shortages.

8:19 But now it is clear that Ukraine has successfully

8:22 substituted artillery with drones in its defense and offence.

8:25 For instance, a Russian military blogger

8:28 has claimed that Ukraine deployed 300-400 drones

8:30 to a depth of 20 kilometres against

8:33 the Russian army in the Oleksandrivka sector,

8:35 which greatly helped the success of Ukraine’s counter-attack.

8:38 Another curious development is a more prominent use

8:42 of unmanned ground vehicles by the Ukrainian army.

8:44 They are increasingly used for functions such as logistics,

8:48 mine laying and assault.

8:49 According to a Ukrainian officer speaking to the Guardian,

8:52 90% of Ukrainian logistics are carried out by these land drones now,

8:57 which undoubtedly saves a lot of lives.

8:59 We have already seen videos of Russian

9:01 soldiers surrendering to these land drones,

9:03 and now Zelensky claims that for the first time in this war,

9:07 Ukraine captured a Russian position through the work

9:09 of ground and aerial drones without any infantry involvement.

9:13 If Ukraine manages to scale up their production,

9:15 and it is difficult to see why they wouldn’t be able to do so,

9:19 it is going to be a massive development.

9:21 These drones will save many Ukrainian lives

9:23 and significantly ease Ukraine’s logistics to the frontlines.

9:27 It all looks very futuristic, but here we are in the year 2026,

9:32 witnessing remotely operated robots fighting a war.

9:35 LONG-RANGE STRIKES.

9:35 RUSSIA’S RECRUITMENT AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS.

9:35 FOREIGN SUPPORT TO UKRAINE.

9:35 Of course, Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes continue being a story too.

9:39 In April, they struck oil facilities in Ufa, Nizhni Novgorod,

9:43 Primorsk, Novorossiysk, Volgograd, Yaroslavl,

9:46 Syzran, Novokuibyshevsk, Perm and Tuapse.

9:47 This has forced Russia to cut its oil output

9:51 by 500k to 600k barrels in April compared with previous months,

9:55 the sharpest decline in Russian oil output since 2020, according to Reuters.

10:00 Obviously, this harms Russia’s ability to profit from a hike

10:03 in oil prices due to the war in Iran.

10:07 Ukraine has also targeted production facilities in Tolyatti, Taganrog,

10:10 Kazan, Gukovo and military assets on the occupied territories.

10:14 We have discussed Ukraine’s air defense struggles many times in our videos,

10:18 but evidently, Russia has its own challenges too.

10:21 Russia is a vast country with not nearly enough air defense

10:25 systems to respond to Ukraine’s expansion of its geography of strikes.

10:28 Russia simply does not produce air defense systems

10:31 at a scale to shoot down everything Ukraine sends its way,

10:34 and this problem will only grow,

10:37 also because Ukraine is purposefully targeting Russia’s air defense systems.

10:41 Russia may also be experiencing recruitment troubles after a steady

10:44 influx of new contract soldiers in 2024 and 2025.

10:48 According to calculations by Janis Kluge,

10:51 an economist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs,

10:55 based on the budgets of Russian federal subjects,

10:58 the Russian army has been recruiting 800 to 1000

11:01 soldiers per day since the start of 2026.

11:03 This is a 20% decrease compared with the same period in 2025,

11:08 despite the Russian government now paying more

11:10 for recruitment and suffering a higher rate of losses,

11:13 according to both Russian and Ukrainian sources.

11:15 If the rate of casualties exceeding the rate

11:18 of recruitment in the Russian army continues for months,

11:21 Putin may have no other choice but to carry out another round of mobilization.

11:25 An unpopular decision,

11:26 particularly at a time when Putin’s approval ratings are slowly dropping,

11:31 even according to the Kremlin-linked polling institutions.

11:34 A state-owned polling institution reported that in mid-April,

11:38 Putin’s approval rating stood at 65.6%,

11:41 marking a seventh consecutive week of decline.

11:43 Troubles in Ukraine and, more recently,

11:46 the ban on Telegram have caused discontent even among Russian

11:49 opinion leaders who may be considered loyal to the Kremlin.

11:52 This is happening amidst worsening economic conditions in Russia.

11:56 Inflation is rising, there is a labor shortage,

11:59 and many enterprises have gone out of business,

12:01 while others are unable to pay wages.

12:03 As a result, according to Vedomosti, the number of planned layoffs in Russia has

12:08 increased to more than 100,000 as of April 1.

12:11 On top of that, Russia’s federal deficit reached

12:14 61 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2026,

12:17 while the intended deficit for the whole of 2026 was roughly 50 billion.

12:22 It will be interesting to see how Putin attempts to balance

12:26 recruitment problems with domestic economic

12:28 troubles and declining approval ratings.

12:31 Of course, the war has devastated Ukraine’s economy too,

12:33 which has to rely on European support to survive.

12:37 For months, Russia’s ally, Victor Orban,

12:39 had been blocking a 90 billion euro loan of the EU to Ukraine.

12:43 But in April, he decisively lost the general elections to the opposition,

12:48 which immediately removed Orban’s veto.

12:50 On April 23, the president of the European Council

12:53 announced that the loan was now available to Ukraine.

12:56 Approximately 60 billion euros will be

12:59 allocated to Ukraine’s domestic military-industrial complex,

13:02 while the remainder will be spent to keep the Ukrainian economy afloat.

13:06 Ukraine would have to repay this loan,

13:08 only if Russia pays reparations for the war.

13:10 The EU also transferred 1.4 billion euros

13:13 from interest on frozen Russian assets held in Europe.

13:17 Furthermore, there were many announcements of purely

13:20 military aid to Ukraine from Europe.

13:22 The EU will allocate 200 million euros

13:24 to joint drone production between Ukraine and Romania.

13:27 On April 6, it was announced that Sweden will send Tridon Mk2 air defense

13:32 systems worth 400 million euros to help fight the threat posed by Shahed drones.

13:37 A series of announcements was made on April 14.

13:40 Germany will allocate 3.2 billion euros to supply

13:43 several hundred GEM-T missiles for Patriot air defense systems,

13:47 while also committing to send 36 IRIS-T air defense systems,

13:51 invest 300 million euros for long-range weapon production

13:54 in Ukraine and jointly produce around 5000 AI-based drones.

13:58 Furthermore, Lithuania, Belgium, Norway,

14:00 Bulgaria and Estonia made new contributions to the PURL

14:05 initiative to procure weapons from the US.

14:07 Additionally, the Netherlands and Norway pledged to fund Ukraine’s

14:11 drone production for a total of almost 800 million euros.

14:15 Lastly, on April 15,

14:16 Britain announced the largest-ever drone package for Ukraine,

14:19 promising to deliver at least 120,000 long-range,

14:23 reconnaissance, and logistics drones in 2026.

14:25 CONCLUSION Not bad at all for Kyiv.

14:28 The United States is busy in Iran,

14:30 and even without that, there has not been much

14:32 interest from the Trump administration to continue supporting Ukraine.

14:35 But Europe is finally stepping up

14:37 in a larger way with crucial financial support,

14:40 air defence, and drone deliveries to its ally fighting for its survival.

14:44 Ukraine may start feeling better about its chances

14:47 in this war after weathering non-stop Russian attacks

14:49 in the past 2 years and not backing

14:51 down in the face of demands to surrender territories.

14:54 Make no mistake, it is still a war

14:57 of attrition with a large degree of unpredictability,

14:59 but it seems like Russia has finally started to feel the impact

15:03 of this attrition on its capacity to wage war in Ukraine.

15:06 Let’s conclude this video by looking at visually confirmed

15:09 equipment losses by both sides as of April 30, reported by Oryx blog.

15:15 Russia has lost at least 4389 tanks,

15:19 10765 vehicles, 319 command posts and communication stations,

15:24 2326 artillery systems and vehicles, 184 aircraft and 172 helicopters.

15:31 Ukraine has lost at least 1419 tanks,

15:35 6413 vehicles, 90 command posts and communication stations,

15:41 1267 artillery systems and vehicles, 116 aircraft and 56 helicopters.

15:48 Further updates on the Russian invasion of Ukraine are on the way.

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