How are political parties really feeling ahead of May elections? | BBC News

0:00 Laura is clutching some books that look like old photo albums.

0:04 They are old photo albums from the 1990s.

0:06 We have to find them on eBay.

0:08 What's in them?

0:09 Do you really want to know?

0:10 You look like you just raided the stationery cupboard at school.

0:14 I'm so excited.

0:15 So, these are my election flippers.

0:18 Right.

0:17 And I have an amazing producer who very, very,

0:19 very kindly compiles all these for me so I can look

0:22 like I know what I'm talking about on Thursday and Friday night.

0:25 Inside, da da da da da da,

0:28 are all my notes about all

0:29 the different constituencies and councils in the country.

0:32 So, what's what's the color coding?

0:33 There's two blue, two red.

0:34 So, because the elections are mega maze, we've been saying for months,

0:37 which marvelously other people are now calling it.

0:39 There are going to be a set of elections

0:42 which will have the results coming in on Thursday night Really?

0:45 from English councils.

0:47 This is the English council flipper.

0:50 Right.

0:50 And you'll see it's not completely chock-full

0:53 because there's the smallest number of results.

0:56 This is good.

0:56 This isn't.

0:58 Then, we've got the Friday English results.

1:02 Da da da da absolutely chock-a-block.

1:04 Friday English councils coming up.

1:06 Thousands and thousands of seats up for grabs.

1:09 This is also for Friday.

1:10 This is all the Welsh names, which you've got to get good at saying.

1:13 And young Pike has arrived.

1:14 Do come in and you can also see my flippers.

1:16 I don't show everyone my flippers.

1:18 And then, these are all the Scottish

1:20 constituencies which will also be on Friday.

1:22 So, I'm very excited and this is a a very

1:24 laborious way of saying that we're doing all our election homework.

1:28 Because the elections are nearly here.

1:30 Yes.

1:30 So, look, this is meant to be the introduction to the podcast.

1:33 Joe, you're not here yet.

1:34 We're just saying

1:35 I'll keep quiet.

1:36 Yes, so journalism is about looking out the window and saying what you can see.

1:39 So, we're getting underway by saying welcome to this Sunday newscast.

1:42 Laura's got some political thing.

1:45 Uh Joe Pike will talk to us about the Sunday

1:47 shows and we'll get underway with the newscast edition of Sunday.

1:51 Hello, it's Paddy in the studio.

1:53 And it's Laura in the studio and I

1:54 want to just say that the wonderful production team

1:55 who are the glass are already laughing at us

1:57 and it's only we're not even 2 minutes in.

1:59 And it's also Joe Pike in the studio.

2:00 Hi guys.

2:01 Ah, hello.

2:02 Nice to have you to join us.

2:03 My pleasure as ever.

2:05 What are we talking about today?

2:07 Uh, well, I think we're talking about one thing which is the huge political

2:10 unfolding complicated picture in front of our eyes

2:13 with enormous elections coming on Thursday.

2:17 Um, which of course will be the outcomes will be

2:20 the product of millions of people's decisions across the country.

2:22 Do you know that more than 20 million people have got a chance of a vote?

2:26 I did not actually and some 16-year-olds.

2:28 Yes, 16-year-olds in Wales and Scotland.

2:30 Although the rate of registration I was told last

2:32 week in Wales for 16-year-olds has been less than 50%.

2:36 So all that kind of excitement that there might have been about young

2:38 people voting doesn't seem to be translating necessarily into a rush to vote.

2:42 How are the parties feeling?

2:44 I think it depends which party you're talking about Paddy.

2:46 I think the real art or maybe it's

2:48 the science in political campaigning is being able

2:51 to land your message or or frame the race

2:55 in your perfect way in those final days.

2:58 So people are going into the polling booth ringing in their ears your message.

3:05 Now, it is very difficult.

3:07 Some are doing it with a sort of classic political change message.

3:10 Some are doing it by focusing on policy local or national

3:14 or I suppose international is is this sort of uh,

3:17 debate on your show um, today Laura.

3:20 Uh, some some of course would have been very

3:22 focused on what message was in people's minds when um,

3:26 uh, postal votes landed sort of 10 days to 2 weeks ago.

3:30 Uh, but I suppose different different parties

3:33 are feeling feeling very differently about their chances.

3:36 Should we just quickly then whiz through them cuz

3:37 we had six of them in the studio this morning.

3:40 Um, but in terms of the parties,

3:41 okay, Labour I would say nervous, worried, restless,

3:46 possibly anticipating a real kicking and then

3:49 potentially this time next week absolute

3:51 chaos if people have the bottles to try and get rid of Keir Starmer.

3:54 Tories, Joe?

3:56 Uh I think they are also nervous that they could

3:59 see some challenges in places that have previously been their heartlands.

4:04 And yet there is an optimism that uh Kemi Badenoch's

4:08 leadership seems stronger than it was perhaps six months ago,

4:12 partly because the most prominent of her challengers is no longer in her party.

4:17 Robert Jenrick.

4:17 But also that the the question that's discussed here often with the general

4:21 journalists like me and the specialists like you is Westminster bounce.

4:25 She's got the mo, hasn't she?

4:26 in Westminster.

4:27 Does that Does that go to the doors?

4:30 No, not if the polls are correct, which is still at this stage a big if.

4:33 So, if you talk to people who've been around the country for the Tories,

4:35 they say that the conversations on the doorstep aren't

4:38 as bad as aren't as bad as they were last year,

4:41 but they don't expect that to be showing up in any sort of ah, hurrah,

4:44 we can put our faith back in the Conservatives

4:46 once again and the English counties will turn true blue.

4:50 So, we are still in a situation where it looks like

4:51 the Tories are going to be going backwards in this election.

4:56 And you know, there might come a point where actually you might want to ask,

4:59 well, hang on a minute, are the Westminster Tories kidding themselves?

5:04 Because people around the country maybe feel less patriotic towards them,

5:08 but they're not actually moving their votes across yet.

5:10 Anyway, we will see, as Joe says, no question about it,

5:14 Kemi Badenoch's leadership is is secure unless something really weird happens.

5:19 And this time last year, people might have said,

5:22 "Oh, well, if there's another set of difficult local elections,

5:25 she might be shown the door." We're not in that circumstance now.

5:28 Liberal Democrat.

5:29 Well, as Sir John Curtice said on Laura's show, they seem to be flatlining.

5:34 They are seen historically as good local campaigners and therefore we have

5:38 seen them focusing on their south of England and a south western heartland,

5:45 you could call it that, Often seats

5:48 and areas that have been conservative in the past,

5:52 often wealthier parts of the country.

5:56 But in Scotland Wales, they certainly face challenges partly because

6:00 it's such a sort of multi-party strimash.

6:04 They like to their critics and their foes like

6:06 to portray them as the Gail's party, don't they?

6:09 Gail's bakery party.

6:10 Well, it was a strategy.

6:11 I mean, it was a strategy that Liberal Democrats were quite

6:13 happy to talk about privately at the general election where Gail's bakeries,

6:16 if you're not a fan or a or even not a fan, but if you've never heard of them,

6:21 Gail's bakery is a chain of very expensive, quite fancy bakeries.

6:25 And where Gail's open in town centers, Lib Dems went, "Ah, right,

6:30 we'll have a bit of that." Because it matched the sort of demographic

6:33 of the kinds of voters who they would be able to go after.

6:37 And I think that's really it's a it's a it's a light-hearted but a example

6:41 of what the Lib Dem strategy has

6:43 been since their terrible general election of 2019.

6:47 If you go I was talking to a Lib Dem strategist about this week.

6:49 Go back to that.

6:51 Jo Swinson was going around the leader of the time saying,

6:53 "I can be the Prime Minister." And then the country went,

6:55 "No, you really really can't." You can't get MP they they said it right.

6:58 Exactly.

6:59 And she lost her seat.

7:00 And they were trying then to run

7:01 a sort of big giant national big style campaign.

7:05 After that, they went, "All right,

7:06 that's not really going to work for us." And since then,

7:08 they've run what the strategist was saying to me basically is tortoise and hare.

7:13 So, Ed Davey is a tortoise.

7:15 Might he dress up as a tortoise?

7:17 I don't know.

7:18 Don't give him any ideas, said a Lib Dem on our program this morning.

7:21 What they're doing is this very very localized campaigning.

7:24 They looked Interesting.

7:25 very carefully, very deliberately at where they think they might win.

7:30 Try and pile in on the council, build up in that way,

7:33 and then hope to get MPs in that area.

7:35 So, they're playing a different game to the other political parties,

7:38 which we should bear in mind when we look at their numbers.

7:41 Their numbers of councilors,

7:43 get this, they might end up Did I say this yesterday?

7:47 Being the biggest party in English local government this time next week.

7:51 Right.

7:51 So, that's cuz I was going to say we still must talk about Reform Plaid SNP.

7:56 Oh, we're only just getting started.

7:57 I was but I just wanted to say that in the coverage that I've heard,

8:00 it's almost like the chattering classes have forgotten that this is

8:03 kind of about education in Scotland, health in Wales.

8:07 It's about my bins.

8:08 It's about homelessness on the streets where I live.

8:11 It's about me voting for the people who

8:14 deliver the services closest to my front door.

8:16 And we keep talking about Keir Starmer and Keir Starmer is in trouble.

8:19 Yeah.

8:19 Keir Starmer.

8:20 And actually, why can't it be about the the issues

8:23 that my council run in England and all the devolved powers of Scotland?

8:28 Do you think we've forgotten the whole point of these elections?

8:30 I think it's about both.

8:31 I think that what happens is

8:32 my wonderful colleagues in the Westminster press pack,

8:35 of which I'm still just about a proud member,

8:38 um obviously, we tend to see things through the lens of the national

8:43 leader because that is also what MPs are really talking about.

8:47 Look, Keir Starmer is in deep trouble.

8:48 Many MPs see this might be the moment he'll be shoved out.

8:51 It would be completely wrong therefore if we said, "No, no,

8:54 we will only talk about your bins." However, it's well worth making the point.

8:57 This is not just about whether or not Keir Starmer is going to get his P45.

9:01 It's about real decisions being made by councilors,

9:04 being made by members of the Scottish government,

9:06 the Welsh Senate, decisions that will affect how people's lives are.

9:10 And Keir Starmer himself in today's Observer has

9:12 this piece where he is is focusing on policy, talking about a defense spending,

9:18 talking about a closer economic relationship with the EU.

9:22 A very very interestingly placed article in a newspaper read by, I imagine,

9:26 a lot of Labour MPs and Labour members.

9:28 Seemingly, if you're trying to read between the lines in that piece,

9:31 saying, "It's not worth the the risk of internal wrangling.

9:37 Let's keep uh focusing on the end goal.

9:41 Keep Keep your eyes on the goal.

9:42 And he's not saying it, but he's implying uh you know, stick with me.

9:46 Let's see what's in the King's speech.

9:48 And let's carry on a bit further.

9:50 It's unusual to mention the King's speech, I feel.

9:53 very good film.

9:56 And the King did do a good speech.

9:57 did do a very good speech,

9:58 which is still absolutely ramping up lots of press commentary and coverage,

10:03 you know, some days after it.

10:05 But the King's speech for the uninitiated is

10:07 also when the government stands up and says,

10:09 through the voice of the monarch, these are the plans and the new laws that they

10:14 want to pass during the next session of government.

10:16 And one of the things that Keir Starmer's

10:19 um apparatchiks uh did a few months ago,

10:22 and which they decided quite some time ago,

10:24 which was quite cunning, is they put a date in notionally for the King's speech,

10:28 which was only a few days after they expected kicking at the elections.

10:34 Therefore, it was one of the tactics that might

10:37 make it harder for people to organize plots against him,

10:41 because they'd say, "Oh, but just a couple of days later,

10:43 you're going to get all these fancy goods." Might that, you know,

10:45 get MPs just to hold off.

10:47 And it allows Keir Starmer, Laura, in this article today to say,

10:51 "This government will reshape our nation over

10:53 the coming weeks through the King's speech and beyond.

10:56 We will set out our agenda of radical reform with activist,

11:00 interventionist government, building a stronger, uh fairer country."

11:05 Muscular liberalism.

11:06 He's he's basically sort of ramping up, I think, the significance.

11:09 It's no time for changing.

11:10 We need We need a strong, competent leader.

11:13 But of course, there are people within his own

11:14 party who are not sure that that is him.

11:16 Well, that's the problem.

11:17 And if the results suggest that the country is very firmly

11:19 of the view that he is not a strong or competent leader,

11:22 then for how long, say some people in the Labour party, do they ignore that?

11:26 But that's the point here.

11:28 Where is the evidence that Keir Starmer is able to turn things around.

11:34 Flip side, where's the evidence that anyone else would

11:36 be able to do a better job and be popular?

11:39 We don't know the answers to either of those questions,

11:41 but many Labour MPs look at the evidence and think,

11:44 is is there proof that Kier Starmer can turn this around?

11:47 Huh, don't know.

11:48 And I think those are going to be

11:49 the big questions looming over everything next weekend.

11:51 So, it should go to the other parties though, too, shouldn't it?

11:53 Yes, we must.

11:54 Yes, so let's turn to Reform.

11:56 So, I wonder if it's fair to say that if

11:58 you were looking at this podcast 6 months ago,

12:02 you would have said Reform are soaring away in the polls.

12:06 Their amazing disruptor status secured.

12:09 They're the biggest party in the polls.

12:12 And then somehow it looks like they've lost

12:14 a little bit of that patina as the disruptor.

12:17 I mean, I'm not saying they're not going to perform Reform.

12:21 I'm just going to rhyme throughout the whole podcast.

12:24 What what kind of um momentum are they are they seeing?

12:28 I sort of described it the other day, which I think is fair,

12:32 is is that they are they you know,

12:34 they are enjoying an incredible period of success.

12:36 They have been ahead in the polls for many many many months.

12:39 You would absolutely expect them to be gaining

12:41 at least 1,000 seats in England next week,

12:44 maybe as many as 2,000 at the top end of expectation.

12:47 You would not be surprised if they ended up being the biggest party in Wales.

12:53 They're vying with Plaid Cymru for the top spot.

12:56 They it would not be surprising if they were second in Scotland, too.

12:59 Really?

12:59 Ahead of Labour, that wouldn't be surprising either.

13:01 They're fighting for their, you know,

13:02 Reform sources tell me this week when you say,

13:04 "What are you looking at privately?

13:05 What's your expectation?" They said,

13:07 "Four figures and one or two in two." In other words,

13:11 at least 1,000 seats in England and then either

13:14 first or second place in both Wales and Scotland.

13:18 But to your point, Paddy, I think they've been incredibly successful,

13:23 but the fizz has gone flat.

13:24 So, they've basically stabilized in the polls.

13:27 So, from time to time in the last year they've been hitting 30%

13:31 with a big distance between them and Labour and the Tories and everyone else.

13:35 Now, they've stabilized in the sort of 25 kind of high 20s,

13:39 so the gap between them and the other parties is narrower than it was,

13:43 which means when you talk to Labour strategists, they say,

13:45 "Well, actually mid-term, look at the gap between us and Reform.

13:48 That's not insurmountable.

13:49 That's not the kind of Oh my god, they're a clear 10% ahead of everyone else."

13:53 The personal project and success of Nigel Farage in from nowhere coming

13:59 to first place and sustaining it for 13 months is is significant,

14:03 but it has brought with it scrutiny

14:05 including just this week questions over this gift,

14:09 this 5 million pound gift from a crypto billionaire Christopher

14:11 Harborne that none of us knew about until this week.

14:15 Now, Mr.

14:16 Farage makes it clear that that was an unconditional gift before he'd

14:20 even considered running for Parliament and really it was about his security.

14:25 But, there are some of these issues that pose a bit of a challenge to Reform.

14:30 Certainly in the Mail on Sunday today, there's a big piece from Mr.

14:34 Farage on page seven.

14:36 He is framing this election in the final days talking about that sort

14:38 of campaign strategy as being vote for us to get rid of of Keir Starmer.

14:45 And he seems to be very optimistic saying, "Let's be clear,

14:48 the damage Reform UK is preparing to inflict on Labour in the so-called

14:52 red wall areas at this election has simply never been done before." So,

14:56 there's a real optimism in the Reform camp.

15:00 And yet, they didn't turn up at 9:00 this morning to talk to you.

15:04 Correct.

15:04 So, Nigel Farage was, if in case people are wondering,

15:06 Nigel Farage had been arranged and confirmed

15:10 to come on the program this morning.

15:11 This during the election campaign,

15:12 we've been talking to the the party leaders over a period of weeks.

15:16 And then we were told that he'd changed

15:17 his mind and he's going campaigning in Essex instead.

15:21 Which of course all politicians are you know, there's no expectation,

15:25 there's no law that says they have to come and do things, but it is unusual,

15:28 I think it's fair to say, it's unusual that at the last minute uh that a major

15:32 politician would change their mind about doing an interview.

15:36 And as you say, there has been a big story this week, Joe,

15:38 about 5 million quid coming from a very wealthy donor,

15:42 um which Nigel Farage is accused of breaking the rules by not declaring.

15:47 It's worth noting that he did actually declare other

15:49 gifts during that same period when they're saying, "Oh, well,

15:53 he wasn't an MP then, and he didn't have to do it." He

15:55 did declare some other things during that same period.

15:58 He denies any wrongdoing,

15:59 but the voters will think if I was given 5 million pounds, I might remember.

16:04 That's kind of how this is a sniff test.

16:05 I mean, and we haven't got time to go on about Reform endlessly,

16:09 but nonetheless, the prediction of second in Scotland is still massive.

16:13 Oh, yeah.

16:13 I mean, undoubtedly, and and there's a I think we said it last week,

16:17 but there's been a real kind of reckoning in Scotland

16:21 among the political class in Scotland who for years thought, "Oh,

16:23 there's no space for a Nigel Farage's brand of English politics here,

16:28 that Euroscepticism, and then his sort of brand of what they

16:32 would accuse him of being an English nationalist." So,

16:34 there's no no place for that in Scotland.

16:36 Reform stands to do well, very well potentially,

16:39 from a base of, you know, kind of more or less zero.

16:42 Mhm.

16:42 Joe Pike wrote the book about Scottish politics.

16:44 So, we I won't I won't parley with on with him on this.

16:48 Let's talk about the SNP then.

16:50 They the leader predicted, "We will win." Which is, you know,

16:56 we we felt was quite early early out of the

16:59 Yeah, not just that they would win,

17:00 but they would actually get a majority, cuz newscasters are a smart bunch,

17:03 don't need to be reminded that it's hard to get

17:05 majorities in the devolved parliaments that were set up.

17:09 Why is that?

17:10 Uh because it's a proportional system, and it was designed for different parties

17:14 to come together and uh form governments.

17:16 Yet, 2011 was is the sort of significant

17:19 historical point where when Alex Salmond was First Minister,

17:22 there was an SNP majority.

17:24 That led to the Edinburgh Agreement,

17:25 which led to the Scottish Independence Referendum.

17:29 So, the significance now uh in Scottish politics

17:32 and in especially in the SNP over getting

17:33 majority is they argue this would uh mean

17:37 they have a mandate for a second Independence Referendum,

17:40 something which the UK government uh would uh like to stop.

17:44 And if they don't get a majority, then they won't make that argument, you see.

17:47 So, that's why the majority is not just important

17:49 because it tells you about how popular the parties are

17:52 and the SNP would be able to govern

17:53 on their own without having to get other parties on board.

17:57 But, it also is the determinant of whether or not there's another kind

18:00 of tussle between Westminster and Holyrood about

18:02 whether or not there should be another referendum.

18:04 I insert a Scottish-splaining into two Excellent.

18:08 Just don't do the accent.

18:09 No, I won't do the accent.

18:09 No, not No,

18:11 It's obviously all the accents in Scotland are the same as well.

18:13 Yes, there's At least you're a good portion portion of your life in Scotland.

18:16 You should be Yes, yes, yes.

18:17 We shouldn't We shouldn't discount that.

18:18 Here's I'm going to say a thing and you're going to you're going to rate it.

18:23 Okay.

18:22 A vote for Reform Yes.

18:24 is a vote for the Union.

18:27 Yes.

18:27 they are the second party, Yes.

18:29 then it's it once again puts this issue into a marginal issue

18:33 again and it was 55-45 when the when the referendum was held.

18:37 So, if Reform's second,

18:40 you could make the case in Westminster

18:42 that that even though you don't like them,

18:43 you could say that's clearly there are

18:45 still plenty of unionist voters in Scotland.

18:48 And if you listen carefully, I'll try and explain this cuz there might be

18:52 an absolute head spinner and this is an outside possibility.

18:55 I'm not suggesting this is going to happen,

18:58 but there is an outside chance where there might

19:01 be a situation where there's a unionist majority in Holyrood.

19:06 So, if the SNP falls short of John Swinney's

19:08 very confident prediction that they would get an outright majority.

19:12 It's not impossible that the combined seats of Labour, of the Lib Dems,

19:19 of the Tories, and of Reform and up

19:23 to a unionist majority in the Scottish Parliament.

19:28 What on earth happens in that situation?

19:31 Does Anas Sarwar think, "Well, hang on a minute,

19:33 I could have a crack here at being First Minister and actually lead

19:38 the country?" But Labour said that they wouldn't touch Reform with a barge pole.

19:42 So, all sorts of really interesting dilemmas might be thrown up in this contest.

19:50 It's not impossible there could be a unionist majority in Holyrood.

19:53 It's Most of the polling suggests the SNP

19:55 are going to be the biggest party by far, but being the biggest party does not

19:59 automatically give you a majority in Holyrood.

20:01 I think there's an outside chance of that, but if

20:03 you talk to people in Scottish Labour, and I'm sure Joe,

20:05 you've had conversations with people Labour MPs

20:07 in Scotland or Scottish Labour this week,

20:09 there's a kind of Hmm, our internal data isn't as bad as the polls are.

20:14 Maybe there's an outside chance that we might end up with more,

20:18 you know, more lead in our pencil than we thought.

20:20 Um I bumped into a prominent SNP figure the other day,

20:24 just on the street rather randomly, who This person said, "Yes, ah,

20:27 but for the SNP and better for Labour than the polls

20:32 are suggesting." I was in Edinburgh last weekend as well,

20:34 and I was rifling Sounds strange.

20:36 I was rifling through the bin of the stairwell

20:39 of the place I stayed at a friend's house.

20:40 I was staying That does sound strange.

20:41 Cuz it's full of full of sort of takeaway leaflets,

20:43 but also, of course, this time of year, election leaflets, all those.

20:47 And what was fascinating was the uh sort of the squeeze messages,

20:52 the tactical voting messages on all of these leaflets.

20:55 One of them saying, uh "This seat," which I won't mention the name

20:59 of, "This seat is a toss-up between

21:00 the Greens and Labour." Another party was saying,

21:04 I think the SNP saying,

21:05 "This is a toss-up between the SNP and the Conservatives.

21:08 Now actually

21:09 Same seat.

21:09 The same seat.

21:11 Yeah.

21:10 The same bin as the spinning.

21:12 Same bin.

21:14 Yeah.

21:14 And I think that gives you an idea of I mean

21:16 this this there are of course

21:18 constituencies which could be four-way, five-way battles.

21:22 But you have two votes.

21:23 You have your constituency and your list vote.

21:25 In Scotland, there are so many parties

21:28 that the whole system is a sort of confusing formula.

21:31 That's the proportional system and therefore it could

21:33 as Laura said and to some unexpected results.

21:37 changed it again this year.

21:38 They've changed it so it's different.

21:39 So it is a It's always been a proportional system.

21:42 But they've changed how it works this time.

21:45 And that renders the polling much

21:48 that potentially renders the polling much less reliable.

21:51 It's the De Hondt variable.

21:53 That's what we're really saying.

21:54 The This is what podcasts were invented for.

21:57 Talking about the De Hondt system.

22:00 class.

21:59 So Greens Plaid.

22:02 Yes.

22:02 So let's go Plaid.

22:04 Yes.

22:05 So I spoke to a Welsh veteran Yes.

22:08 who said currently it's Labour Plaid.

22:12 Yes.

22:11 It could go Plaid Labour.

22:14 Yes.

22:14 What do you In terms of the mix of government?

22:17 Yeah.

22:17 Or in terms of the government?

22:19 Yeah.

22:18 Yeah, possibly.

22:19 So the So So what's happened this race or the race

22:23 for the one and two spot is between Plaid and Reform.

22:27 If Plaid are the biggest party but are

22:29 they're incredibly unlikely to have a majority.

22:31 So either the most likely scenarios are Plaid's

22:34 the biggest party but they get a bit

22:36 help from Labour the Lib Dems and the Greens

22:40 so that we know can become First Minister.

22:43 Or this is a scenario where Reform's the biggest

22:45 party and then it's not quite clear what would happen.

22:49 So the Tories have said they'd work with Reform if they gave them some of what

22:51 they wanted like they want to cut to income tax in Wales as does Reform.

22:54 You can see they might possibly work together there.

22:57 But it does look like Plaid will have for with Lib Dems, Labour, and the Greens.

23:04 So, you what you might call, if you're that way inclined,

23:07 it's very likely to be a progressive majority in Wales.

23:10 But, if Reform has more seats by some distance than Plaid,

23:13 then you get into potentially quite a complicated argument about uh legitimacy.

23:18 And So, Plaid at the moment are feeling pretty bouncy,

23:21 but I think a bit more trepidatious than a couple

23:24 a bit more trepidatious than a couple of weeks ago.

23:26 I think it Plaid Plaid thought they were very much

23:28 on course for to be the biggest party very clearly,

23:32 but now you can sense there's a few nerves around

23:34 the edges about whether or not Reform will actually pip them.

23:37 And this is where I introduce turnout.

23:41 Yeah.

23:40 Because all the boffins I speak to, like Joe Pike,

23:43 predict low turnout in these elections, Joe Pike.

23:47 Yeah, I mean, that that that is very possible.

23:49 And and that means that uh the sort

23:51 of get out the vote operation will be central.

23:55 So, if parties understand where their most loyal voters are

23:59 and can get them out of the houses to a polling station,

24:02 that could potentially make a big difference in the final result.

24:06 And for parties whose voters may be skeptical or may

24:12 be tempted to stay at home because they are,

24:15 you know, demotivated or fed up, that operation could be quite central.

24:18 And that's often where the squeeze message uh comes in, which is you know,

24:22 if you are scared of Paddy and his party,

24:26 well, you better get out and vote for Laura.

24:27 I'm scared of that.

24:28 I'm I'm scared of that right.

24:30 The only way to stop Paddy is Laura,

24:32 you've got to come out and vote for for Laura.

24:34 Do you know what I mean?

24:34 But, that that This is where we're going with that.

24:36 But, that's often the message that you hear from parties

24:38 and newscasters will have in leaflets through their letterboxes.

24:41 Yeah, I mean, also, in another podcast world,

24:43 we talk about you rifling through bins for the whole half hour.

24:47 Oh, it's a crime in the bin.

24:48 I'll just put that out there.

24:49 Well, it was just it was just uh takeaway leaflets and uh and election leaflets.

24:53 Yeah, no, no, don't be shy.

24:55 mean, to see them.

24:56 I think it's fascinating.

24:58 Yeah, should put them in my bag and appeal for them.

24:59 Niche is cool.

25:00 That's what people like.

25:01 They like people with strange hobbies.

25:04 Uh so, now we do greens.

25:06 So, the thing about the greens is that a few years ago,

25:09 they were windmills and moccasins.

25:12 And basically speaking, they were quite well-behaved.

25:15 And they didn't really want to uh trouble you very much.

25:18 Had a couple of MPs here, one one peer there.

25:22 And now, Zac is the leftist populist.

25:25 That's kind of everyone accepts, including me.

25:28 himself.

25:28 He says he's an eco-populist.

25:30 Eco-populist.

25:32 Yep.

25:31 And uh he's outflanking the left wing of the Labour Party

25:35 in the way that Reform is outflanking the right wing of the Conservative Party.

25:40 But just heading into the election,

25:41 he's had this unusual storm, which we've addressed here,

25:45 where it's very unusual for the police to call out the politicians.

25:48 It happens about once every 3 years, I think.

25:52 And he this business of what he reposted on social media, which again,

25:56 I go back to what I said earlier, is this about health in Scotland?

26:00 Is this about the schooling of my child in Wales?

26:02 Is this about the homeless problem I've got in my street in X Council?

26:07 Or is it about my hopes for better bin collections?

26:10 No, it's about a post a repost on social media.

26:14 Yeah, because Zac Goldsmith's judgment was brought into question.

26:17 So, he reshared the post that was criticizing the way in which the police

26:22 apprehended the suspects who had been trying

26:24 to stab Jewish people in Golders Green.

26:26 And Zac Goldsmith, by resharing that, put himself

26:30 in a place where as a public political figure,

26:33 he was questioning the police just at the moment when they had been

26:36 trying to stop a serious attack um on Jewish life becoming much worse.

26:41 So, his credibility was then attacked, and he had made the police very upset,

26:46 which is why Sir Mark Rowley made a very unusual

26:48 step of criticizing him in a letter that he published.

26:51 But it was interesting this morning, we asked that Plaskitt if he basically

26:54 still thought the police had gone too far, and I'm paraphrasing,

26:57 but yeah, I mean he basically said yes,

26:58 he does still think that they've got answers

27:01 questions to answer about how they handled it.

27:04 But, he did acknowledge that doing so online had not

27:07 been the right place for him to make that case.

27:10 But, I think it's interesting.

27:11 I think we're into kind of, you know, new Greens 2.0, right?

27:14 So, new Greens 1.0 was that Plaskitt.

27:16 It was all kind of, "Oh, super way surge in the polls, amazing fun.

27:20 Oh, look, here he is raving around, having a great time,

27:22 adding on members, having incredible success at by-election,

27:27 piling on members by the tens of thousands."

27:30 A couple of months then into that, of course what

27:33 happens is journalists start looking more carefully at a party's

27:37 record when somebody turns up, you know, newly.

27:39 Um and there have been more questions asked about his, you know,

27:44 old job as a hypnotist.

27:46 There've been more questions asked about Green candidates

27:48 specifically posting really vile and offensive anti-Semitic views online.

27:54 So, Zack Plaskitt is in a sort of I I think it's a different phase,

27:58 you know, new Greens 2.0, where Zack Plaskitt is facing scrutiny which he

28:01 of the kind that he wasn't aware of a while ago.

28:03 What what do we say is the upside uh for these elections?

28:06 What Where what do we say about seats now, seats then?

28:10 Well, well, I think in terms of English local government,

28:14 you're looking at what have previously been uh

28:17 Labour sort of strongholds in in central London.

28:21 Yeah.

28:21 They could do well in some of those seats.

28:22 Yeah, they might even take some of those councils.

28:24 So, they might take Hackney Council, for example.

28:26 They've also been working hard in Lewisham, Southwark, Newham.

28:29 They've been working hard in and maybe in total some

28:31 of the projections would say sort of 500 seats or so,

28:35 and perhaps not a bit north of that would be decent for the Greens.

28:38 But, I think inside the party there are also actually nerves,

28:41 because how do they translate this massive surge of excitement,

28:46 particularly online, around them as a party,

28:49 how do they translate that into bumps on seats?

28:53 It might not happen,

28:54 and how do they actually sort of manage their own internal expectation?

28:56 And you you've got to think also about

28:58 how people consume their own news and information now.

29:01 If you're someone who's a kind of new convert to the Green Party,

29:03 and you get most of your news off this this thing,

29:06 and you see a lot of it on social media,

29:07 so what you're seeing on social media is all

29:09 these amazing videos of Zack Polanski and Hannah Spencer,

29:11 and it's all woo woo, cheer, all amazing.

29:15 And then actually they go, "Yes, so we've got 400 extra council seats after

29:18 the election that you've been so excited about."

29:21 That might the next day feel like a bit of a kind of clunk, you know?

29:25 And how do you then as a national leader maintain momentum around that?

29:29 I mean, I'm going off into the realms of, you know,

29:31 party management, but it's quite it's quite an interesting thing.

29:35 Cuz they're basically a vibes party.

29:37 The vibes have become a bit more testy for various

29:40 reasons in the last few weeks since Polanski first,

29:43 you know, sprung onto the stage.

29:46 If the council results sort of feel like they fell a bit short,

29:49 well, what do the vibes feel like then?

29:51 So, it's multi-party Britain.

29:53 Did John Curtice buy into that?

29:54 Cuz he famously John is the sort of barometer.

29:57 Every time someone says, "Ah, we've entered the new multi-party world." John

30:03 adds everything up and reminds you that actually

30:05 we've all we've we've had multi-party in Scotland

30:08 since before the English started waking up.

30:12 But also we've had English party before, and then it snaps back.

30:14 So, that's the question is there's multi-party, but it's never forever.

30:17 So, I always kind of roll my eyes about when he would say, "Ah,

30:20 we are definitely into the into the era

30:21 of multi-party politics." A, as if it's something new.

30:24 Well, now there was a coalition for 5 years between 2010 and 2015.

30:27 The SNP have been in charge for donkeys in Scotland.

30:31 Wales has had coalitions, and you know, go back to the '80s with the SNP,

30:35 and then the the SDP, and then the Alliance.

30:38 So, yes, we are absolutely at the moment in a world

30:43 where there are multiple political parties vying for your attention.

30:48 There is an argument that we've talked about

30:50 before that politics is basically about two big blocks,

30:53 the sort of progressive block and the block on the right

30:56 and there are lots of different parties fighting each other in that.

31:00 Some people believe and would argue that means

31:02 we're going heading into a general election where

31:04 you might have four parties or even five

31:06 parties all knocking around sort of 15 20%.

31:09 It's also perfectly possible that things will

31:11 have snapped back to the big red team

31:13 and the big blue team and we just do not have the answer to those questions.

31:18 I just one more thing I'd add Paddy to what Laura just said

31:20 is that what Reform seem to have done and what the Greens you

31:24 could argue have done with the Gorton by-election too is get past the concern

31:30 of some voters that voting for them might be a a wasted vote.

31:33 There's no point voting for one of these parties

31:36 because it won't actually change the course of the election.

31:40 Certainly, the Greens have proof in Gorton

31:43 and may add to further proof in these elections

31:46 and certainly Reform have proof from various previous

31:49 contests that actually if you vote for them,

31:52 it can make a difference and that is a real

31:53 problem for some of the more traditional established parties.

31:57 Yeah, it's a really good point because they've passed that hurdle now.

32:00 Yeah, that's a better way of putting it.

32:01 Passed the hurdle.

32:02 They've passed the hurdle or bolted over a hurdle

32:04 or whatever and it used to be oh well, it's no it's no point voting for you.

32:07 And if Reform ends up somehow in in Wales,

32:12 if they were in power for the first time in a national administration,

32:14 that would be a huge moment and they're likely to take control of more councils.

32:18 You know, remember this time last year how huge it felt

32:20 that Reform had won control of some town halls for the first time.

32:25 The established parties all hoped oh well, now they're running things,

32:28 they'll find it really hard so people will think that they're dreadful.

32:31 That hasn't happened.

32:32 Well, it has a bit, hasn't it?

32:32 There's been a There's been some embarrassments.

32:35 Oh, there've been embarrassments.

32:36 We put up the council tax.

32:37 But the sort of established parties,

32:38 I remember during the many hours of election coverage,

32:42 they were all sort of saying, "Oh, well, they'll see how they like it now.

32:44 They'll see how hard it is, and they'll have scrutiny,

32:47 and voters will decide that they're terrible." Yes,

32:51 there have been challenges, and things have gone wrong,

32:53 and they have had to put council tax up, but there hasn't been this sort of oh,

32:57 terrible fall away dramatically in their support.

33:00 No, there hasn't been a collapse.

33:02 Um we're going to get They're just telling me

33:03 to move everything on, um not because he's not interested,

33:06 but he wants to get to newscasters who

33:08 are actually the point of the whole thing.

33:11 Correct.

33:11 Um Have we mentioned all the parties yet?

33:13 We haven't mentioned Restore UK, which are huge online,

33:17 founded by a disgruntled MP, Rupert Lowe, who used to be in Reform.

33:23 They're only running in a tiny handful of places, including Great Yarmouth,

33:27 which is his seat, but there might

33:29 just be a tiny little interesting thing there.

33:31 I'll just put a note down.

33:32 It's I'm not saying it's a big deal, and they're obviously not in any way,

33:35 shape, or form competing in this in nationally, but just as a little sidebar.

33:41 Paddy, time for a gimmick.

33:43 Remote a voter.

33:54 So, in case you have forgotten, how could you have forgotten?

33:56 Remote a voter is when we encourage newscasters to write in and tell us

33:59 how far-flung their destination is from where

34:02 they are either filling in their postal vote,

34:05 or maybe you're a casting a ballot in the somewhere very,

34:08 very, very remote and far away.

34:10 Maybe you're in John O'Groats.

34:12 Maybe you are up a hill in a tiny remote place in a beautiful part of England,

34:19 and your ballot station is a shepherd's bothy.

34:24 Who knows?

34:24 Anyway, I'm getting lost in my own flights of fancy.

34:26 I thought Yeah, I think I was at it briefly.

34:28 a script for this program, and it says Laura to read, and she did that.

34:32 but we had to tell people remind people what it was.

34:34 Well, I just say no remote a voter.

34:36 more confused now.

34:37 Okay, okay, what he said sounds tempting.

34:39 Can we just It may have a been.

34:42 Laura to read.

34:44 Okay, Keith has emailed in.

34:45 Hello Keith, you want to be the remote a voter.

34:48 I'm looking to subvert your usual remote a voter

34:51 entries by asking you to consider not just geographic distance,

34:54 but also temporal distance.

34:57 I just voted at 9:00 on Saturday at my polling station in Cranbrook in Kent.

35:02 We are one of the areas that are trialing early

35:05 voting on the weekend before the Thursday of the main vote.

35:08 So, on the basis of the distance

35:10 of time I consider myself a temporarily remote voter.

35:15 Great, fascinating.

35:16 Thank you, Keith.

35:16 It's like Dr.

35:17 Who, isn't it?

35:18 This is an email about Sue Francis's son in the Falklands.

35:20 Hello, my name is Sue.

35:22 I'm a fan of the podcast since Brexit cast, Laura.

35:25 I think I found a remote a voter for you.

35:26 My son, who will be voting in the upcoming Senedd election in Wales,

35:29 is currently in the military in the Falkland Islands

35:31 and will cast his vote by proxy from there.

35:34 Please, could you give a shout out to all the serving personnel in the Mount

35:37 Pleasant complex who are doing a great job

35:39 in this beautiful remote part of the world.

35:41 Many thanks for keeping us all so well informed in these turbulent times.

35:44 It really makes such a difference.

35:46 That's a very nice email.

35:47 Hello to Sue's son and anybody listening to Newscast in the Falklands.

35:51 I hope HMS Dragon wasn't bringing their postal votes back.

35:55 No, Paddy, you very cleverly last week said that there would be gifts

35:59 between the King and Donald Trump and you said that Scotland would come up.

36:03 Yes, and this is one of the occasions when I was right.

36:06 Hooray!

36:06 And this is compared to all the occasions when I was wrong and also cat gate,

36:09 which we can't go into again.

36:12 So, this did.

36:14 So, I ashamed of your preference for dogs.

36:16 It's okay.

36:17 Don't bring it up again.

36:18 Well, I just did.

36:19 You did.

36:20 these tariffs on whiskey were lifted.

36:23 Yeah, very significant for that um key Scottish industry.

36:26 And and sort of battle between various politicians over who should claim credit.

36:32 Well, we're claiming credit because we predicted on this podcast

36:35 that be Scotland would feature in the in the visit.

36:37 That's what we said.

36:38 We did, but John Swinney is sort of claiming

36:40 that actually it was his persuading of Donald Trump This podcast

36:44 who lifted raised tariffs and the king and then

36:46 was it the king or was it whoever?

36:48 trade minister Yeah, everyone take the win.

36:51 It was You have to take the wins.

36:53 When you think how criticized the BBC is and then lo and behold

36:56 we predicted Scotland would feature in the visit

36:59 and then the tariffs are lifted.

37:01 So, Paddy McConnell is the one This This cask, whiskey cask.

37:06 Well, many congratulations.

37:07 I'm sure the people of Islay will be uh cask whiskey cask news cask All right.

37:14 He asked me if I was dreaming a few minutes ago.

37:15 I think that you've now got completely bananas.

37:18 Um anyway, so yes, that was a big story out

37:20 of the visit and people said thank you very much to the king.

37:23 I would just observe that it's quite a strange thing if in the era

37:26 of 2026 that you've got one man in his 70s who's very,

37:29 very powerful able to persuade another man in his 70s who's very,

37:32 very powerful that they just had a little chat and here's a present

37:35 to an industry that affects thousands

37:36 of people on hundreds of millions of pounds.

37:38 It's an unusual way of doing business if I'm allowed to say.

37:42 Other gifts, um a framed replica of the 1879 design

37:46 plans for the Resolute Desk as discussed on News Cask.

37:49 And the Resolute Desk is what?

37:50 It's the tra- traditionally the desk in the Oval Office.

37:55 Um a bell was given by the king

37:57 from the World War II submarine namesake HMS Trump.

38:00 Now, I was interested in that.

38:01 I wondered why it was called HMS Trump.

38:04 Was it cuz it was a stern anyway, I was going to I know it was an old submarine,

38:07 but why was it called HMS Trump back in the day?

38:10 President Trump, however,

38:11 gave King Charles a custom replica of a letter from 1785 from President John

38:17 Adams to diplomat John Jay detailing Adams'

38:20 historic meeting with King George III at St.

38:23 James's Palace.

38:25 And Adams' historic meeting was not Adam Fleming's historic meeting,

38:28 although Adam Fleming did discuss it on News Cast last week.

38:32 Fine.

38:32 So, we've reached the end of News Cast.

38:34 And I Can I just say that one thing you said to me earlier struck a note,

38:39 which is you said you used the word feel.

38:43 Mhm.

38:42 And I'm guessing we These are We

38:45 will really feel these election results, won't we?

38:47 That's the point.

38:48 I think that's right.

38:49 And I think particularly for the Labour Party,

38:53 knowing that you might get a kicking in the polls is one thing.

38:58 Feeling that you have is quite another.

39:01 And if you are a Labour MP who doesn't know whether or not it's

39:06 the right thing or the wrong thing to be part of a move against Keir Starmer,

39:10 if on Thursday night and Friday afternoon,

39:15 your phone is filling up with messages from colleagues,

39:19 activists who you've worked with for years,

39:21 people who you've walked along pavements with with clipboards in the rain

39:25 trying to persuade them to come out and vote for Labour,

39:29 if all you're seeing on your phone

39:30 and in your conversations people saying this is absolutely horrendous.

39:36 Bob's lost, Jane's lost, so-and-so's lost.

39:39 All of If your political world suddenly becomes

39:41 absolutely full of people going this is unbearable, we can't go on like this.

39:47 That is a very different sentiment

39:49 to this time 7 days before where they're going,

39:51 "Oh God, it's all very difficult, isn't it?

39:52 But oh, who knows?

39:53 We've got no certainty about whether or not anybody would be any better than

39:57 Keir." And the psychology is very important

39:58 in politics as well as the raw numbers.

40:00 And another part of that psychology, Laura,

40:02 I'd argue is that these uh counselors,

40:04 if we're talking about the English local government,

40:06 are not just uh people who decide on issues about recycling and potholes.

40:11 They are also the sort of key level of effectively

40:16 paid campaigners in the campaigning infrastructure for an MP.

40:21 And if you have lots of counselors in your constituency,

40:25 because they are engaged, because they have a a small salary,

40:28 and they're they're part of the decision in the area,

40:31 they are more likely to be out there keeping you in your job.

40:36 And there will be MPs of different parties

40:39 who lose counselors on Friday morning or Saturday,

40:43 for whom that may may be is a sign of of things

40:47 to come and a sign of how challenging future elections could be.

40:51 Right.

40:52 This is definitely the end.

40:52 We'll put those predictions to the test in 7 days time.

40:56 We say thank you very much indeed for listening.

40:59 Goodbye.

41:00 Goodbye.

41:00 Goodbye.