The Iran War Has No Exit — ft. Ian Bremmer | Prof G Conversations

0:00 I believe that Trump understands that the midterms are lost.

0:04 I think he knows that he can't turn the economy around.

0:08 That's why he's suddenly [music] pivoting towards patience on Iran.

0:11 That's why he said, "I'm surprised oil prices are so low.

0:14 I thought [music] they could be $250, $300.

0:17 They're under 100." Um, I think he knows that that he's in too deep.

0:22 [music] And so the midterms are lost.

0:30 Ian, where does this podcast find you?

0:31 Hey, Scott, I am back in my office in [music] New York City.

0:34 Sunny, springike New York City.

0:38 Thank God we need something.

0:39 Oh, that's nice.

0:39 [music] Um, so let's bust right into it.

0:42 Uh, abroad, the the war in Iran drags on with no end in sight.

0:47 Blockades were exchanged.

0:48 Uh, the state of Hormuz is still effectively closed and talks keep collapsing.

0:53 At home, we had another incident of political violence earlier this week,

0:57 the attempted assassination of the president

0:58 at the White House Correspondents Center.

1:00 [snorts] Ian, in your in your view,

1:02 what's the state of play in geopolitics right now, particularly in Iran?

1:07 Uh, well, I the biggest thing that happened today is the Emiratis,

1:11 ally of the United States, unilaterally withdrew from OPEC,

1:15 an organization the Americans don't like, uh,

1:18 and is now going to be weaker, more fragmented, more led by Saudi Arabia.

1:22 uh uh that is part of what is a growing divide

1:26 uh between an Emirati block and a Saudi block on security,

1:30 on economics and technology uh in the Gulf

1:33 and definitely the Iran war has accelerated that pretty dramatically.

1:39 But take a quick step back.

1:42 The other big news this week out of Iran is

1:47 that the German chancellor publicly said the United States is being humiliated.

1:53 The French president publicly said

1:56 that the US president um the Russian president,

1:59 the Chinese uh president are all directly

2:03 against Europe uh acting together against Europe.

2:07 Those are those are things that at best you usually hear with inside voices.

2:10 you don't hear them saying publicly.

2:12 So I mean this this unwinding um of US alliances uh this anger and fragmentation

2:20 geopolitically both in the region and more

2:23 broadly is clearly becoming more front and center.

2:28 Um and you know there's there are questions over how how [snorts] much

2:32 this is in America's advantage over the short the medium um and the long term.

2:38 But but the anger the the feelings are raw and and the view

2:42 that these institutions these alliances are not serving um the purpose

2:47 of the US or the allies those things are growing and becoming

2:50 much much more direct and and the pain that comes from an Iran

2:55 war that we're now in the third month of no end

2:57 in sight as you said the economic consequences are massive uh as well

3:02 as the geopolitical uh is is really leading to a lot of uh

3:07 a lot of anger and hostility and mistrust on the global stage.

3:11 So maybe that's the way I would frame it just to start.

3:14 So I want to bifurcate it into what I think is a really

3:17 interesting story and I'm I'm interested to get your take and that is

3:20 the UAE deciding to divest or leave OPEC and then obviously US

3:24 allies be adding more stride in terms of their criticism of the US.

3:29 Why?

3:30 Why would the UAE see it to their advantage

3:34 to alienate other Gulf partners in OPEC?

3:38 Weaken OPEC?

3:40 What what is the mechanization and the sort of the industrial logic

3:44 behind the UAE coming to the decision that they're going to leave OPEC?

3:48 So, Scott, there are lots of reasons.

3:50 It's hard for me to tell you which ones are the most important,

3:54 but they all move in this direction.

3:57 one is that um Dubai uh which has been

4:02 like so much of the model of of future growth

4:05 like we're the Switzerland of the Middle East and we're

4:08 attracting all these expats and everything is safe and stable

4:10 and you've been there I've been there many times right

4:13 um that that looks a lot more vulnerable uh when

4:17 suddenly uh the Iranians are able to shut down the straight

4:22 and use their missiles to strike directly your five-star hotels,

4:26 your airport and the rest.

4:27 And so, you know, suddenly you see Abu Dhabi um the the uh capital of the UAE

4:35 uh willing to focus much more on what

4:38 they see as in their national interests right now.

4:42 Um and and that is we're aligned with Israel.

4:46 We're aligned with the United States.

4:49 Those are the countries that are coming to our aid, not the Saudis.

4:53 um we are uh going to sell as much oil as humanly possible

4:58 in the near term as soon as the straight is opened at higher rates.

5:02 We're not going to align with voluntary restrictions on oil

5:07 export because we can make money on that now.

5:10 But long-term we've got to diversify away from oil.

5:13 We've got to focus on tech investments.

5:15 We've got to focus on postcarbon energy.

5:18 That's the win for us.

5:21 Then then you have the fact that their view

5:24 on Iran and this war is completely different from Saudi Arabia.

5:29 The Emiratis really want the war to continue.

5:33 Uh they certainly don't want to see this Islamic Republic stay

5:37 in place and they don't want this regime to have the military,

5:42 the ballistic missile capabilities,

5:45 the proxy support um or uh potentially the nuclear capabilities.

5:50 In that regard, if the war were over today, in 6 months, in 12 months,

5:56 I could see the UAE joining with Israel in so-called mowing the grass,

6:02 which you and I and Dan Senior talked about

6:04 a few weeks ago when we last had a public conversation.

6:08 Um, the Saudis on the other hand,

6:12 their principal alliance outside of the US is with Pakistan, a nuclear power.

6:18 Um, and they are increasingly aligned with Egypt, with Turkey,

6:23 uh, but also are thinking long term about how to, uh,

6:28 make a deal with a postwar Iran to ensure their own security.

6:36 They don't need to use the strait.

6:38 They don't have to worry as much about

6:39 Iran disrupting it or tolling it because they

6:44 can get 7 million barrels a day through

6:46 the Red Sea from their export terminal in Yanboo,

6:49 the East West pipeline that they have.

6:52 They're focused much more on a 35 million strong population that they are

6:57 they want to make sure has the ability and the money to develop,

7:01 not an expat heavy 90% population that the UAE has.

7:07 Um and so um this war again there have

7:09 been fights between NBS and MBZ that predate this war.

7:14 We saw that play out in Yemen.

7:16 We saw that play out in Sudan.

7:18 Uh we've seen that play out in financial decisionmaking.

7:21 Um but it has been accelerated and intensified by the war

7:26 and the very divergent responses to the war geopolitically,

7:32 militarily and economically by these two

7:35 very successful countries with very different models.

7:38 And I think that's what has led to the UAE to make this announcement.

7:42 An announcement that's made when the straight is closed.

7:45 So it doesn't have any approximate economic impact tomorrow, but it will.

7:50 Uh it would not surprise me if the Emiratis

7:54 uh leave the Organization of Islamic Countries, the OIC.

7:58 Um I have heard from both the Emiratis and the Saudis and others in the Gulf,

8:03 that they think the Gulf Cooperation Council,

8:05 the GCC, which is the overarching regional framework,

8:09 however loose, is not fit for purpose uh anymore.

8:14 So that could also fall apart.

8:16 It's a it's a it's becoming a Gzero Middle East.

8:20 um in that regard.

8:22 Yeah.

8:23 One of the stats that just blew me away is that more

8:26 projectiles have been shot at the UAE from Iran than Israel.

8:32 I mean, it appears that Iran has decided that the UAE is,

8:35 you know, absolutely not their ally.

8:37 And it's a lot it's a lot closer.

8:39 It's a lot easier to hit if you're Iran, right?

8:40 You need longer range missiles to hit Israel, which they don't have many of.

8:44 And and Israel much hardened targets.

8:47 Do you think this brings one or the other?

8:49 or the UAE or Saudi closer to Israel and the US and alienates the other.

8:54 I mean, I see this as a pretty big deal.

8:56 One, I hate cartels,

8:57 so I'd like to think over time this lowers the price of oil for everybody,

9:01 but this does feel geopolitically like a pretty big shift in the chessboard.

9:06 I don't like cartels.

9:07 I don't like monopolies, uh, whether they're US platforms,

9:11 uh, or they're global commodity unions.

9:14 Um uh and and in that regard uh the break up

9:17 of OPEC will uh lead to more competition and lower prices over time.

9:21 I believe that is true

9:22 and that certainly redounds to America's overall interests.

9:26 Um now the UAE and Saudi Arabia are both allies of the United States.

9:33 Um militarily they both rely on the US for intelligence to a very great degree.

9:39 Now, Saudi Arabia, their missile program is provided by China,

9:44 and that is important.

9:46 Uh, it's also because the Americans weren't

9:49 about to sell tomahawks to the Saudis.

9:52 Uh longer term, I see Saudi Arabia uh becoming more aligned

9:58 with China in terms of who's going to buy their oil export.

10:02 And Saudi sees themselves as the the big producer

10:06 of the last inexpensive barrels over decades that will still

10:10 be needed in a global economy that's transitioning but still

10:15 very much reliant in part on oil and gas.

10:19 Um, I also think that the Saudis will be more enticed to buy Chinese technology,

10:26 including AI, because it will be less expensive for their own population,

10:31 than the Emiratis, uh, who will want to be more aligned

10:35 with the US military industrial technological complex.

10:38 So, for now, both of these countries are still

10:41 aligned pretty strongly with the United States overall militarily.

10:47 Over time, I expect that that will become more true

10:52 for the Amiradis uh and it will become less true for the Saudis.

10:57 There's also the kleptocracy piece,

10:59 the fact that so many billions of dollars um are trading hands uh

11:05 from the Gulf uh to the Trump family and the Trump inner circle.

11:10 There's also massive investments made into the United States.

11:13 I think that the Saudis,

11:16 even though they've promised a trillion dollars and Trump

11:19 went there at the beginning of the term

11:21 and he made that huge announcement of how

11:23 much the Saudis were going to give them,

11:25 I think the Saudis are much more likely to downgrade how much money they'll put

11:29 in the US and they will they will

11:32 repprioritize domestic investment for their own sovereign wealth funds.

11:38 Um while the Emiratis uh I I think are

11:42 going to be doing uh much more globally um

11:46 and in that regard they will be seen as deeper

11:49 pockets and more attractive partners for a lot of western multinationals.

11:55 That's uh so these things are again I I think geopolitically there are lots

12:00 of consequences that will be playing out for a very long time on the back

12:04 of this war but the most immediate and consequential is probably this dynamic

12:11 which we are seeing play out with the headline of the Amiradis leaving OPEC.

12:16 So Iran has offered to reopen Hormuz the straight of Hormuz

12:20 if the US lifts its naval blockade and ends the war.

12:23 um setting aside or kicking the can down the road for nuclear talks.

12:27 Rubio, Secretary Rubio called it unacceptable.

12:31 Uh Trump canled the Islamabad follow-up talks.

12:34 Um a ceasefire technically technically is doing a lot of work here.

12:39 Holds, but both sides keep probing.

12:42 Qatar is warning of a frozen conflict.

12:45 Who do you think has more leverage right now?

12:47 Uh Washington or Thrron?

12:49 Uh the Americans say they have more leverage.

12:53 Um the fact that um the Germans uh spoke the way they

12:57 did implies they think the Iranians have more leverage which is not helpful.

13:02 Uh I I will say the Iranians have an information advantage.

13:07 Uh they have an asymmetry here, right?

13:09 Trump for a very long time has talked about the fact that you

13:12 you never know what Trump is going to do is an advantage, right?

13:15 Like he could do crazy and so people have to be careful with him.

13:19 Well, uh, we actually know less about the Iranian leadership,

13:24 who is willing and capable of ultimately implementing a decision,

13:28 how decentralized the decision-making process is,

13:31 and we don't have good information on who's saying what to whom,

13:34 where in the United States, we've got polls,

13:37 we've got impact in the markets, uh, we've got all sorts of people inside

13:40 the Trump administration that are talking to the media.

13:43 So, it is easier for the Iranians to assess that Trump wants a ceasefire,

13:50 that he's not he's looking for an offramp, that that, you know,

13:53 he's promising the American people that this war will be over soon.

13:56 I mean, all these things,

13:57 it's very hard for the Americans to make that assessment of the Iranians today.

14:03 Now, America, of course, is vastly more powerful than Iran.

14:08 And so in principle that should give the Americans a lot more leverage.

14:14 And yet the Iranians are showing that they are

14:17 willing and capable of taking a lot more pain.

14:19 150 of their leaders have been assassinated.

14:22 No American leaders have been assassinated.

14:24 No Israeli leaders have been assassinated.

14:26 So the Iranians are taking a lot more damage.

14:29 They've got, you know, over a million people displaced.

14:32 They've got well over a thousand dead.

14:34 Americans 13.

14:36 So I mean the Iranians are clearly showing that they are

14:40 capable of tolerating a lot more pain than the Americans had expected.

14:46 They're also showing that their military capacity at this point

14:49 is much greater than the military planners in the US believed.

14:52 And here here Scott, I'm not talking about what Trump thought having ignored

14:56 what a lot of his military planners were telling him.

14:59 I'm actually talking about the military planners.

15:01 They are very surprised.

15:02 Sentcom is very surprised that in the third month of this war

15:06 that the Iranians still have over

15:08 50% of their ballistic missile capacity intact.

15:13 They're very surprised that after strikes um

15:17 on uh la on uh launchpads that in some

15:21 cases the Iranians were able to dig them out and relaunch within 24 hours.

15:25 They're very surprised by that.

15:27 They're surprised by the hypersonics um that were able to get through American

15:32 defenses um in the Sultan air base

15:35 in Riad and destroy American advanced aircraft.

15:39 They're surprised um by the range that the Iranian missiles were able

15:45 to show um to launch a small attack on the base of Diego Garcia.

15:51 So there there has been more capability shown militarily

15:55 on the part of the Iranians despite all this damage.

15:58 The the long and the short of it, Scott,

16:01 is that it's hard to say who has more leverage here,

16:07 but it is clear that President Trump is looking for an offramp.

16:14 It is clear that President Trump is not

16:17 um in any way interested in a shortterm return

16:24 to war fighting and it's not as clear

16:28 uh what the Iranian incentives are in this environment.

16:31 So I'll put forward a thesis and way to respond to it.

16:34 It feels like the president has really backed

16:37 himself into a corner that they can't just leave.

16:40 They could be accused.

16:41 I love I think it was you use this term of having a glass jaw.

16:45 It doesn't matter how big and scary you are.

16:46 If you get punched once and you're down and you're out.

16:50 I don't think they can politically leave if the straight of Hormuz is not open.

16:55 I I I don't think it can be we broke it.

16:57 It's up to the rest of the world to fix it.

16:59 At the same time, it feels like every day that the war goes

17:02 on, Iran can claim credit for surviving and that whether it's the Taliban,

17:10 the Vietkong or now the IRGC, they win by just surviving it.

17:15 It feels as if one, do you agree with that?

17:19 And two, what is the likelihood that the US is able to enforce

17:23 free passage of the Strait of Hormuz and then leave, you know,

17:27 kind of declare victory and leave with what is

17:29 arguably a weakened Iran in terms of its military capacity,

17:32 but then do they just leave the Gulf States more vulnerable?

17:35 It it it definitely feels as if he's painted himself into a corner here.

17:39 Your thoughts?

17:40 Yeah, I I think you've framed it extremely appropriately.

17:44 right on the money.

17:45 Uh Scott, this is the question I'm exercising myself

17:49 with and my analysts at our firm every day.

17:52 Um I I think you're right that Trump feels like he cannot just cut and run here,

18:00 even though that is clearly the right thing for America's national interests.

18:05 The longer this war goes on, the more damage, the more costly.

18:09 But Trump is unprepared to declare victory even though he has tried to.

18:15 I mean he how many times has he said ah the strait is the European problem.

18:19 It's the Asian problem.

18:20 They're got they have to deal with it.

18:22 He has said this.

18:23 He has set himself up to declare victory and leave.

18:27 But he's not willing to do it because he knows it just looks horrible.

18:32 It knows it feels like too much of a loss even for Trump

18:36 who is one of the most incredibly shameless uh at at saying things

18:43 that just aren't so and willing them to be the truth for himself

18:47 and his supporters even he does not believe that this is plausible and credible.

18:53 And and yet we're in an environment where the baseline outcome,

18:59 even if he were to declare victory and leave today,

19:02 the baseline outcome is worse than the deal that was on offer

19:06 to Jared and Witkoff by the Iranians at the before the war started.

19:13 It is um it is a a worse outcome

19:17 than if Trump had not left the Iranian nuclear deal,

19:21 the JCPOA at the beginning of his administration.

19:24 And it becomes a worse outcome for every

19:26 day that he chooses to continue with this blockade.

19:30 The costs are so much greater than the benefits of continuing with this fight.

19:38 And he's chasing he's chasing the dragon, right?

19:42 I mean, he needs a bigger hit and a bigger hit every moment.

19:46 Um, and and he's becoming Tupot committed,

19:49 and you and I both know, we've seen, you know,

19:51 people uh with gambling addiction problems, um,

19:55 they they end up getting themselves in bigger and bigger holes.

19:59 So, this I I think that he should declare victory and leave.

20:04 what he seems to believe right now and what I've been hearing from the White

20:07 House is um and this this reflects him saying to the public you need to be

20:12 more patient after he told the public that we're going to be done in two

20:15 to three weeks max the war will be over that has proven not to be

20:18 the case he told the G7 allies a few days just a couple more days

20:21 and at the beginning of the war and the Iranians are going to uh surrender

20:26 um you know unconditionally that that turned out obviously to be very very far

20:30 from the case he's now saying if we just give it another month or two privately,

20:37 um then the Iranians will be under

20:39 such economic pressure because of the blockade,

20:42 which isn't biting yet and isn't biting

20:44 in part because he suspended the sanctions

20:47 on Iran at the beginning of the war so he could keep the oil prices low.

20:52 Turned out not to be such a foresightful move.

20:56 um that then they will be forced to come to the table and negotiate more

21:01 seriously uh with the Americans and give him the nuclear win that he is seeking.

21:07 Um and that that is a theory of the case that is plausible.

21:12 It will cause a far far greater economic damage

21:15 to the US and globally to the American consumers, American voters.

21:19 But that also relies on the idea that the Iranians

21:23 are negotiating in part in good faith and on the basis

21:28 of a cleareyed view of their national interest and not

21:33 out of revenge or vindictiveness or ideology and theocracy.

21:38 Um and and that there are a suitably unitary actor to implement what

21:44 the negotiators agree with and and all of those things are open to question.

21:47 So, for all of those reasons,

21:49 I I think that Trump is only getting himself in deeper and deeper trouble here.

21:53 So, you're right.

21:54 He painted himself into a corner, but like that doesn't mean digging yourself

21:58 into a hole after you're painted in the corner, right?

22:01 I mean, it's lo at some point logic tells you,

22:04 okay, you're going to get some paint on your shoes.

22:07 Walk out of there.

22:08 Walk out of there.

22:09 Do you think they can do you think America can feasibly leave

22:13 without ensuring free flow or free navigation to the straight of Hormuse?

22:18 Of course.

22:19 Of course they can.

22:20 Um the question is what are the implications of that?

22:24 Now, um I think that were the Americans to do that, um the Iranians,

22:31 um if they were to charge prohibitive tolls and no one signs up to it,

22:37 only very small numbers of countries, then oil prices are still high,

22:41 the Americans could easily turn back to a blockade at any moment.

22:45 So, that option remains there for the United States.

22:49 Number one, turn the money off for the Iranians.

22:52 Um, number two, you've got the option of what Trump intimated by saying it's

22:57 the problem of the other countries that they

22:58 end up doing deals with the Iranians.

23:01 Um, and you can call it a toll or you can call it reconstruction money.

23:07 um you can have, you know,

23:08 sanctions uh suspended again off of Iran and then a whole

23:13 bunch of the oils actually getting out and then the Europeans may

23:18 send some destroyers and other ships to help ensure the navigation

23:23 and the insurance comes back online and the the the ships become crude.

23:28 Um and and then prices come down again.

23:32 Um, and the US economy has taken comparatively less

23:35 of a hit than most of the other economies in the world.

23:40 Now, is this embarrassing for Trump because you

23:43 still have the same Iranian regime in place?

23:45 Well, yes, but I I don't see any

23:48 strategy to remove the Iranian regime at this point.

23:50 It's not like Trump is still talking about rescuing the Iranian people.

23:53 the Iranians would still have their nuclear capabilities,

23:56 but Trump has said now on a few occasions

23:59 that if they try to get those at those nuclear capabilities,

24:02 we've got satellites on them.

24:04 We can blow them up at that point.

24:05 You and I looking at this, Scott, it's it should be plainly obvious to everyone,

24:10 irrespective of what Trump admits to that there's no win here for the Americans.

24:16 Um, so the question is,

24:19 how are you going to reduce your losses

24:23 in ways that allow everyone to move forward?

24:25 And and I I do think the best the least worst scenario at this point

24:31 is to conclude the war and and open the straight as soon as humanly possible.

24:37 And I I would have argued that 6 weeks ago easily.

24:41 It would have been much better than now.

24:43 I I mean I I I don't see what's been gained

24:45 in the last 6 weeks other than far far more economic damage.

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26:24 So let's keep moving around the globe.

26:26 Um, I get mixed reporting, mixed messages about the war in Ukraine.

26:34 I see that the oil infrastructure in Russia

26:38 is being damaged and that Ukrainian drones and technology

26:43 are increasing or ramping up uh their attacks

26:46 on Russian oil infrastructure and registering a lot of success.

26:49 At the same time, I see I other reports that Russia's

26:53 industrial machine is just overwhelming Ukraine with more and more drones.

26:58 What?

26:59 Give me what you think the state of play is in that conflict.

27:02 For the last 3 months, uh Ukraine has taken back a small amount of territory.

27:08 Uh and that is because the drone capabilities and the unmanned ground

27:15 vehicle capabilities are are increasingly changing

27:22 um the advantage on the front line, if not in favor of Ukraine,

27:27 at least no longer in favor of the more highly manned Russia.

27:32 Uh Russia benefits from the war.

27:36 uh they're selling a lot more oil,

27:39 gas, fertilizer, commodities at higher prices.

27:43 Uh some sanctions have been suspended by the US.

27:47 Furthermore, the Ukrainians are having a harder time getting

27:50 access to some of the weapons that the Europeans want

27:54 to buy for them because they are in short

27:56 supply and necessary now for the Iran war, American weapons.

28:03 So um there is a uh tactical advantage

28:06 to the Russians that come from the Iran war,

28:09 but the war itself between Russia and Ukraine

28:12 has at best for Russia shifted to a stalemate.

28:17 Where the Russians are showing more advantage is

28:21 that they now are manufacturing more ballistic missiles.

28:25 Their drone capabilities are not what the Ukrainians are, but they're high.

28:30 And they're now launching a lot more

28:33 of those record level rates and some days more

28:35 than we've seen at any point in the four

28:37 years of the war against Ukrainian cities.

28:40 And the Ukrainians are running low on interceptors.

28:44 Um, not not on the lower tech uh drone responses,

28:49 but interceptors for ballistic missiles,

28:51 having a harder time defending their cities.

28:54 So you could imagine a situation where

28:56 the Ukrainians end up taking more land back,

28:59 but the Ukrainians also take more casualties, civilian casualties in cities,

29:04 and their own critical infrastructure becomes more damaged,

29:07 their economy gets more hurt.

29:10 still um I I guess your big takeaways here and this shouldn't surprise you.

29:16 Uh number one, zero incentive of Putin

29:21 to negotiate a ceasefire in the near future.

29:25 And number two, um zero slowdown at this point of the Ukrainians to continue

29:32 to defend themselves because they no longer need

29:35 quite as many troops on the front line.

29:37 And that's been the biggest vulnerability is that they've had harder

29:40 time raising reserves in a Ukrainian democracy um than the Russians are.

29:47 They can send North Koreans, they can send, you know, mercenaries,

29:51 they can they can send convicts, all this kind of thing.

29:54 The Ukrainians have a disadvantage there with a smaller population.

29:58 That's becoming more balanced.

30:00 And I mean what do you see any resol do you see any resolution here?

30:06 Do what do you think looking 12 months in?

30:09 I mean we're now several years into this war.

30:12 Does either side have an incentive to figure this out

30:15 right now or to come to some sort of resolution?

30:18 Doesn't look that way.

30:19 Uh you know you know that Trump uh his his top

30:21 priority foreign policy when he became president was to end the war.

30:25 His repeated quote of 24 hours it'll be over.

30:28 Um he's failed at that and he's admitted that he's failed at that.

30:32 He's frustrated about it.

30:33 He blames the Ukrainians at least as much as the Russians,

30:35 which is not analytically sound.

30:38 Uh but it does express his frustration that he doesn't have the leverage

30:42 to muscle around Putin in the way that he does with Zalinski.

30:46 So that irritates him.

30:48 Um the Europeans are all in supporting Ukraine and they're

30:53 spending a lot more money uh on their own defense.

30:56 Certainly the Germans are, the Poles are, the frontline states are,

31:00 they're also now spending all the money for Ukrainian defense.

31:05 American taxpayers are no longer spending anything on Ukraine.

31:08 So this is 100% the Europeans and that that's what really

31:13 I think you know has has so antagonized when the Europeans are

31:19 are doing all of the burden on for Ukraine in defending

31:24 a democracy uh that the Americans wanted to invite to join NATO.

31:29 It was Condandy Rice and Bush that pushed that.

31:31 It wasn't the Europeans first and foremost.

31:34 So the Americans are the ones doing the Europeans are

31:36 now the ones doing all of the lifting for Ukraine

31:40 to help the Ukrainians and then the Americans decide to engage

31:43 in a war in Iran that is going very badly.

31:46 They didn't tell the Europeans about it in advance

31:49 and then the Europeans take more economic damage

31:52 from the war and then Trump calls them

31:54 cowards when they don't stand up and join him.

31:58 I I mean the the level of anger among European leaders

32:03 right now towards the United States is unprecedented in my lifetime.

32:08 I have never seen anything like it.

32:11 And and it it and that's even before we talk about the trade hostilities.

32:15 It's before we talk about Greenland.

32:17 Uh it's before we talk about Trump's

32:20 recent flirtation with Argentina and the Faullands.

32:23 I mean all of that stuff.

32:25 I can give you so many more, you know, sort of uh c count so many more uh data

32:31 points on this, but the the Russia and the Iran

32:34 wars and the American response to that as the Europeans

32:37 do feel like they're they're absolutely stepping up.

32:41 They're spending money like they never have before

32:43 on defense and they they should have for decades,

32:46 but they're also doing all of the lifting on Ukraine.

32:49 And Trump's like, "Okay,

32:50 but what are you doing for me on Iran?" Um it's it's extraordinary.

32:55 So trying to find a brief moment of sunlight here.

32:57 Uh thoughts on Victor Orban's defeat.

33:00 Great one.

33:01 Absolutely.

33:02 Um and here's one that Trump should have been in favor of.

33:06 I mean, here's you've got a a new leader who wants to drain the swamp.

33:10 He's from the populist right.

33:13 Um he believes in strong borders.

33:16 He really opposes all the migration coming in.

33:20 Um he wants um a a strong transatlantic alliance uh

33:28 that's capable of defending itself against Russia and against the Chinese,

33:32 principal adversaries of the United States.

33:35 He defeats Orban who has wildly redistricted um their political system

33:43 and controls the media and has

33:46 you know enormous amounts offormational advantage.

33:49 Despite all of that, he was able to secure a constitutional majority.

33:54 This should have been a win for a conservative,

33:59 nationalist, America first president.

34:03 And yet Trump wanted Orban.

34:08 Orban supporting the Chinese,

34:10 supporting the Russians, wildly kleptocratic, deeply anti-democratic.

34:16 the the swamp incarnate,

34:20 but liked Trump and came to CPAC and said all the right things and flattered

34:27 him and ultimately what matters what MAGA

34:31 is unfortunately is what Trump says it is

34:34 and what appeals to him before it helps the country and that that's that's

34:38 the part that's going to lead him

34:40 to lose the midterms in such a spectacular way.

34:44 Um, and and it really plays out most clearly in Hungary.

34:48 Most clearly in Hungary.

34:50 And it's why Georgia Maloney, who was the only European leader that came

34:56 to be there with Trump for his second inauguration,

34:59 has now broken decisively from Trump on the Iran war and on other issues.

35:06 It's why he's losing support from the far right

35:09 in France um and Le Pen um and Bardella and others.

35:16 I mean, it's kind of extraordinary that the populist right

35:20 in Europe um would not be proTrump and pro MAGA.

35:25 And it's because Trump and MAGA are no longer reflecting the populist right.

35:30 They're they're starting wars.

35:32 They're expanding the swamp.

35:34 um they're not doing precisely what the people

35:37 that voted for them really wanted them to do.

35:40 So let's keep heading east.

35:41 Uh thoughts on the Trump she summit?

35:43 What's your read on China US relations right now especially given the war?

35:50 Xihinping should in the near term he's taking it pretty hard um from this war.

35:56 Uh his economy is I mean they say it's 5% growth.

35:59 In reality economic experts believe it's more like two to three.

36:03 There's high unemployment uh particularly among the youth.

36:07 There's enormous amounts of bad corporate debt.

36:10 And the Chinese response has been very cautious and incremental.

36:14 So this is not a time when the Chinese

36:16 want to see reduced demand for their manufactured exports.

36:20 The one part of their economy that has been outperforming.

36:24 Um but now you've got people around the world that won't be able to buy as much,

36:27 can't afford as much from the Chinese.

36:31 Uh China has big stock piles of oil and of commodities,

36:36 but still uh all of this disruption from the strait is costing them.

36:40 They need the plastics, they need the polymers.

36:42 Um and they're not getting them.

36:44 And when they are, it's at very expensive prices.

36:46 So they really want this war to be over.

36:48 But but Scott, the Chinese are also the one country in the world that has

36:54 made the long-term strategic investments at scale

36:58 in moving past oil and gas and in electrifying

37:03 their economy uh and in having the solar and nuclear and wind at scale getting

37:10 cheaper and the batteries and the rare earths

37:14 and the critical minerals that are powering them.

37:16 So long-term, the more this war goes on and tells

37:20 everybody the future is not oil and gas,

37:23 which the Amiradis clearly understand today,

37:26 but the big beneficiaries are not the Amiradis.

37:28 The big long-term beneficiaries are the Chinese.

37:31 So they are extremely well positioned despite all

37:35 their domestic challenges on the back of this Iran war.

37:39 And the worse the war gets,

37:40 the longer the war goes on, the the more the long-term

37:45 Chinese bet looks like the most intelligent bet they could make.

37:50 Now, in the context of all of that, China has said, "We want peace.

37:55 We want this over." They've engaged with Pakistan,

37:58 but they're not taking the lead um in negotiations.

38:01 They don't want responsibility for that.

38:03 They don't expect it will go well and they don't want to be

38:06 responsible for it not going well or perceived to be attached to a failure.

38:10 Having said that, um they are proceeding allin

38:15 with this um now delayed summit in uh just

38:19 a few weeks um in Beijing which Trump appears

38:22 to be willing to continue with despite the ongoing blockade.

38:27 And I do think that even if um the blockade is in place,

38:31 as long as the ceasefire holds, I think Trump still wants to go.

38:34 Now, I think what Xiinping is going to do,

38:38 he's going to welcome Trump like no American president has ever been welcomed.

38:42 There'll be extraordinary military parade and robotic display and drone

38:48 display and a huge group of American CEOs and all

38:52 the corporates and all the top leadership from China will show

38:55 up and they'll say what an amazing president that Trump is.

38:59 Um, and then when Xiinping meets Trump directly, he's like,

39:02 I know you want to be the best dealmaker and you've ended all these wars

39:05 and the biggest deal you could possibly do is we can create peace in Taiwan.

39:11 And if you were just to say, sir, that um you know,

39:15 you do not support Taiwanese independence,

39:18 here are all the things that we can do for you.

39:21 Here's the money that we can spend.

39:23 And this time it won't just be

39:24 Ivanka's handbags that we're giving you licenses for.

39:27 It's going to be big big purchases of American goods

39:30 and a whole bunch of stuff for the family, too.

39:32 I I think that Xihinping um would be der

39:37 derelict in his duty as head of the communist party

39:40 as chairman if he did not try that with Trump

39:43 because we know that Trump does not care much about Taiwan.

39:46 He does not care about a territory thousands of miles away from America.

39:50 He wants to be seen as a dealmaker and his own

39:52 advisers who are much much more hawkish on China will will readily

39:58 admit that they have no idea what Trump would do

40:01 in a room alone with Chi if he's given an offer like that.

40:05 Now, will Trump accept it?

40:07 What will he say?

40:08 How?

40:08 I don't know.

40:09 But I do know that Trump understands that China has leverage.

40:12 They're willing to use it.

40:14 He shows a lot of respect, even difference to Xihinping.

40:17 talks about a G2 between the Americans and the Chinese.

40:20 He would never afford any American ally ally that kind of positioning

40:25 and brand power and uh and he really wants this summit to happen.

40:31 So um I certainly don't think there's going to be a fight.

40:34 I I think the question is whether or not uh Trump is

40:37 inclined to give away the store

40:39 for things that he considers personally important.

40:42 So let's keep uh going on our world uh world tour right now.

40:45 Another topic that has fallen somewhat behind the news cycle is Cuba.

40:50 [gasps] Do you think what do you think is going on there?

40:55 What do you think is the likelihood that we try and pull

40:57 a Venezuela on uh you know that's the best case scenario?

41:02 Pull a Venezuela or worse an Iran on Cuba.

41:04 What do you think is going on there?

41:05 And what do you think is the likelihood we take military action against Cuba?

41:08 It's not an Iranian type scenario.

41:10 Uh I mean the Cubans don't have that capacity.

41:13 They don't have the resources, right?

41:15 I mean, so I and Marco Rubio, I think, has who who is really running point

41:20 on this uh decision-making process as opposed to Iran,

41:24 which has been where Trump has been the decider.

41:27 Um I think readily admits that there is no military solution here.

41:32 So the question is how really the question is not

41:36 whether whether or not Cuba is going to be Venezuela,

41:39 but rather how small of a deal uh is acceptable um that can

41:46 be announced as a breakthrough because

41:48 the Cubans are getting hit hard economically.

41:52 The the blockade really matters.

41:55 They're not getting the energy from Venezuela or from Mexico.

41:59 um rolling blackouts, you know, I mean, sanitation's not getting picked up,

42:04 the buses aren't running,

42:05 and people don't know when they're going to have electricity.

42:08 I mean, it's it's it's really this is incredibly hard for the Cuban population.

42:14 Uh and they're getting angry and uh they're

42:17 getting angry in part with the Cuban government.

42:19 So, I think that the Cuban government is highly incented

42:22 to see if they can do something with and for Trump.

42:26 And so the question is if it's basically the same government,

42:29 if it's still the Castros,

42:31 because there there really ain't nobody else right now,

42:34 at least no one in the country.

42:36 Um, and and they're willing to open the Cuban economy to American investment

42:43 big time in terms of tourism and real estate development and the rest.

42:49 They don't have much in terms of commodities.

42:51 Some a, but nothing that really moves the needle.

42:54 If they were willing to do that with a similar government,

42:58 does Trump announce that as a huge win?

43:01 I because it's kind of it's it's you can call that Venezuela light

43:04 or you can call it Obama plus because Obama essentially was trying that.

43:09 He just didn't get he didn't get much from the Cuban government.

43:12 Ultimately, they were slow rolling it.

43:14 They weren't sure it was real and they thought they had time

43:17 and they thought the opportunity would always be there and they they failed.

43:20 They botched it.

43:21 Um, here it's very clear that the urgency is there for the Cubans.

43:26 Um, I don't think there's that much

43:28 at stake other than for Cubans living in Cuba,

43:32 Cubans living in Miami, Marco Rubio.

43:34 This is not going to have the same

43:36 national impact um that Venezuela has or Iran has,

43:41 but it it is set up to be at least

43:43 a significant foreign policy win at some point for Trump.

43:48 I just don't think it's going to be massive.

43:50 Yeah, there's no I don't know.

43:52 There's no minerals, no economic prize.

43:55 13 presidents have tried to thaw relations or do something and have it failed.

44:00 I this is a an unusual analogy, but about 20 years ago,

44:07 I raised a bunch of money uh

44:09 to go become the largest shareholder in Gateway Computer,

44:12 which I realize is a really Gateway.

44:14 Yeah.

44:14 And I I just want to acknowledge that's a pretty weak flex.

44:17 And I met with the board and said,"I want this.

44:19 I want this.

44:19 I want this many board seats or I'm going hostile." And I I can't

44:23 remember if it was Ted waiter or one of the guys on the board said,

44:25 "Scott, why don't you just start buying stock and we'd

44:27 love to have you on the board." It was like, "What?

44:29 You don't you don't need to come in guns blazing.

44:31 Wouldn't wouldn't the right strategy with Cuba be

44:34 to show up with energy and humanitarian aid

44:38 and do a deal to open McDonald's and Chipotles and just sort of, in other words,

44:43 go the other way to use the carrot, not the stick here?" Well,

44:47 I I think that that is I mean the stick is presently being

44:50 used to get to the carrot because the Cuban government has historically shown

44:55 that they are very reluctant to allow

44:57 the Americans to make those investments because

44:59 they worry that's a slippery slope to eventually the end of the Communist Party,

45:03 the end of their control.

45:04 Right?

45:05 So the I do think that there is a utility in in having some coercive

45:13 diplomacy if the intention is to open

45:16 an economy that otherwise they refused to open.

45:19 There has to be more of a stick than

45:21 what the Obama administration was itself trying to accomplish.

45:26 Um because the Obama administration had sticks too.

45:28 They had like, you know, the the continued sanctions on the Cubans,

45:32 but that by itself was inadequate because Cuba

45:34 could deal with that hardship over many decades.

45:37 The hardship is so much worse now.

45:39 Now, has Trump overdone it in terms of the damage

45:41 that the Cuban uh population is living with and under?

45:46 You could make that argument.

45:47 You could also argue if ultimately this leads to allowing

45:51 lots of investment in and sure that's going to include,

45:55 you know, a whole bunch of stuff that will touch the average Cuban people.

45:58 What you don't want it to be is a small number of deals

46:03 that um Americans that are connected to Trump make money in their investments

46:07 and it's all picked up by the Cuban military and the Cuban

46:10 people don't get any of it because then then Cuba's not opening, right?

46:14 That that's not what you want.

46:16 What you want is the opportunity for Cuban,

46:18 the Cuban people to develop a real economy,

46:21 to like have small and medium enterprises that they can be

46:25 a part of, to have employment opportunities that [music] they can be proud

46:28 of, to to actually themselves be able to participate in a global economy

46:33 that their own country has cut them off from for 60 years now.

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49:02 [music] And finally, let's return home.

49:10 Uh, you know, I don't even want unless you want to talk about I

49:13 don't even want to talk about the shooting of the white or the ballroom.

49:16 I think it's such a distraction at this point.

49:18 Um,

49:19 I'd be very surprised that people are talking about it in a week to be honest.

49:22 It feels again, I think the Secret Service did a pretty good job.

49:25 violence assassination attempt,

49:29 but ultimately the guy didn't get into the ballroom.

49:32 So, it's not close to Charlie

49:36 or or the assassination attempt that that came this close.

49:39 Right.

49:40 Agreed.

49:41 Uh any thoughts on the state of um the parties right now

49:45 headed into what will at some point be election season for the midterms?

49:49 Well, I so I'm interested in your views on this too, Scott.

49:52 I mean, I at this point I believe

49:55 that Trump understands that the midterms are lost.

49:58 I think he knows that he can't turn the economy around.

50:01 That's why he's suddenly pivoting towards patience on Iran.

50:05 That's why he said, "I'm surprised oil prices are so low.

50:08 I thought they could be $250, $300.

50:11 They're under a hundred." Um, I think he knows that that he's in too deep.

50:16 And so the midterms are lost.

50:19 And so then the question is, does that make him more risk acceptant?

50:25 Does it make him more willing to allow this war to go

50:27 on and roll the dice and maybe even use ground troops?

50:31 Because, you know, one of the things so far,

50:33 one of the that has been a a limitation of how badly this war

50:37 is perceived as going by the Americans is 13 Americans have been killed,

50:42 but but no ground troops have been inserted.

50:45 That could change very easily, and there are plans for that.

50:48 and there are troops that are in the region for that, but Trump recognizes

50:52 that they're they're extremely risky and they're

50:54 they're not being recommended by his adviserss.

50:58 So, if he knows he's going to lose no matter what and and he knows

51:01 that in the following two years he's going to become more of a lame duck,

51:06 does that make him more risk acceptant in trying to end

51:11 checks and balances against him and just throw everything at the wall?

51:15 Um, or does he give up on that and start focusing more on monetization?

51:22 He's worth 5 billion that he's made through the presidency in the last year.

51:26 How about 50?

51:27 You know, what how does he how can he potentially use the the the remainder

51:31 of his period in time to make as much

51:35 money for himself and his family as humanly possible.

51:39 And I'm not saying he can't do both,

51:41 but I do suspect that there will be a prioritization of one or the other.

51:46 And it is not clear to me that uh

51:50 the closer he gets to the end of the administration

51:53 whether he really is trying to go all

51:55 out like Bolsinaro in Brazil and I must find

51:59 a way to ensure that my political opponents are

52:02 defeated and they're investigated and they're arrested and I control

52:07 the elections and I select the next person or he

52:10 just gives up on that because it ain't happening.

52:13 um and and he focuses on the stuff that he can do,

52:16 which is make a[ __] ton of money um as president.

52:20 And I don't I don't know the answer to that.

52:23 Yeah.

52:23 I I always learned from you and the thing that um

52:27 take away from this conversation that's literally sent chills down my spine.

52:30 It just makes so much sense and I think the media or most of the media

52:34 has missed it and it just if you just look at the fact patterns here,

52:38 it's such an obvious insight.

52:41 Um, and I but I had I had missed it.

52:43 I think you're right.

52:44 I think there's a non-zero probability he trades

52:46 Taiwan for billions of dollars of personal enrichment.

52:50 If you're absolutely right, she can say to the guy,

52:53 figure out a way we'll work with you

52:54 to kind of slow step a creeping takeover of Taiwan.

52:58 You start making noises about we need peace in China and Taiwan.

53:03 You withdraw the military umbrella coverage of Taiwan and and wink wink.

53:09 Once you're out of the presidency, I'll figure out ways,

53:13 whether it's buying billions of Trumpcoin or or doing hotel deals

53:18 in in China that are guaranteed to to work, so to speak.

53:23 Yeah.

53:24 I I it seems to me that seems to me like the most obvious path here.

53:29 And I love what you said that she would

53:30 be derelict in his duty not to offer that.

53:32 That's the cheapest way to invade China

53:34 right now is to bribe a corrupt president.

53:36 I mean I how far you could actually go in implementing something like that uh

53:42 because uh Congress exists and there would be

53:46 uh strong resistance from inside Trump's administration himself.

53:51 Um but but that's very different from an announcement by Trump that I

53:57 do not want an independent Taiwan which creates facts on the ground.

54:00 So, I mean, a a a withdrawal of American military

54:06 uh engagement that that seems really hard to actually implement.

54:10 Um willingness to talk with the Chinese

54:13 about what defense the US sells to Taiwan.

54:18 Trump is already willing to at least engage with Xihinping on that.

54:23 Trump has already shown after the Japanese

54:26 prime minister got herself in trouble in responding

54:30 in a slightly inmperate way to a journalist

54:32 question on whether you defend Taiwan or not.

54:34 And the Chinese cut off their tourism to China to Japan,

54:38 cut off their seafood imports from Japan.

54:42 And Trump's response was not to defend her position,

54:45 which is aligned with the historic American position, right?

54:48 It's it's rather well calling her and said why don't you calm it down on Taiwan.

54:53 So Trump has already shown his bonafites

54:56 to the Chinese as someone that wants peace and security

55:00 and stability in Taiwan even over the historic

55:06 position of some of his predecessors Democrat and Republican.

55:10 The question is how much farther can Xiinping push that?

55:14 and and I'm suggesting that that proposition is going to be tested um when

55:19 they meet one on-one and and and the best time to do that is

55:23 not when it's a big formal meeting with both sides arrayed but rather when

55:29 it is the smallest possible venue between she Trump and a couple of translators.

55:36 But at the end of the day, can he just say to him in a private meeting,

55:40 "Yeah, we have Ohio class submarines

55:42 that have nuclear launch capability of France,

55:46 each of them." And that's I would imagine that's one of the biggest deterrents

55:49 to taking any sort of military action

55:50 or a blockade against Taiwan by the Chinese.

55:53 Can he just say wink wink, I'll tell him to stand down?

55:57 Uh, no.

55:57 Well, I don't think he can do that because that implies that what

56:00 the Chinese are into here is a a surprise military attack against Taiwan,

56:06 which would be incredibly risky for them to do.

56:09 And and and actually um you know,

56:13 cuts against everything that China's been showing us.

56:16 Uh China's the biggest move China's made on Taiwan um

56:19 since the war in Iran started was they invited the head

56:22 of the quamang the opposition party which is more in favor

56:25 of um of peaceful crossstrait relations softer towards Beijing invited her um

56:32 to Beijing to meet with Xiinping and on the back

56:35 of that they made a bunch of unilateral offers to improve cultural

56:39 and diplomatic engagement as well as economic engagement with Taiwan much

56:44 of which was rejected by the more nationalist president of Taiwan.

56:48 But this was Xihinping showing that the future is not about the military.

56:52 The future is about we're so much bigger

56:55 and and and we're not trying to engage in hostilities.

56:59 It's this rebel troublemaker president that you have who you should

57:04 not be voting for in the next elections by the way.

57:07 And you know, he's trying to show that Trump is part of the solution.

57:13 So, it's not it's not a wink wink we're

57:16 going to attack and you're not going to do anything.

57:19 It's more about how can you nudge shift the the the table in our favor

57:28 in a long-term trajectory so that there

57:31 is a peaceful unification of Taiwan with China,

57:34 which is what Xiinping sees as an ultimate

57:38 legacy issue of his of his leadership.

57:41 So, you don't even think the Chinese would consider a naval blockade.

57:44 You think it's going to be a quote unquote they're

57:46 going to attempt a softer reunification or a soft take?

57:48 I don't think they believe it's remotely necessary in the near term.

57:52 I think if things went badly in the upcoming elections

57:55 and it proved to be a a landslide for the DPP,

57:59 I could imagine the Chinese starting to do things like um boarding

58:05 uh some suspicious vessels with the Coast Guard as opposed to the military.

58:10 So, it didn't require an American military response.

58:14 I could see that.

58:15 Um so, again, even in the worst case scenario,

58:18 it's longer term and it's more incremental.

58:21 I don't think there's anything this year that the Chinese

58:24 are going to try on the military front.

58:26 I think it's much more we've got a shot to really improve our lie by engaging

58:32 with this guy that doesn't care about Taiwan

58:34 and and that he can be bought off individually.

58:36 And so many leaders, the Pakistanis, um you know,

58:39 Honduras, others around the world, leaders, former leaders,

58:42 they're showing us that they can they can buy indulgences,

58:45 they can buy pardons, they can buy policies.

58:48 You know, this is the one thing we really want.

58:50 By the way, we already gave him Tik Tok,

58:52 which was the thing he most wanted to have control over algorithmically

58:55 with his friends so that they could

58:57 have more control over the media environment.

58:59 Hey, we in China, we respect that.

59:01 We've got complete control of our media environment.

59:04 So, we understand why Trump wants that.

59:06 So, they gave it to him.

59:07 They let him buy it, right?

59:08 So, I mean, they have built credibility with Trump already that shows

59:13 that we are willing to give on the things that matter to you.

59:17 So you need to give on the things

59:19 that matter to us and Taiwan may matter to America,

59:23 but does Taiwan really matter to Trump?

59:26 I mean, it's it's hard to make that call.

59:29 So, last question here.

59:30 uh in I'm trying to be and I don't know if I'm

59:34 talking my own book here or trying to manifest something but it fills

59:36 with or bond's defeat with what looks like to be a pretty

59:41 significant um pickup for Democrats in the House and possibly in the Senate.

59:48 When you look at Trump's popularity,

59:50 when you look at the fact that the world feels

59:52 more insecure and full of wars and conflict right now,

59:56 might there not just be a blue wave in America,

59:59 but a blue wave that absolutely sweeps the West?

1:00:03 I mean, there are countries where you don't

1:00:04 see that happening uh right now in the UK,

1:00:07 you certainly don't see that happening.

1:00:09 You see reform UK is doing far better and labor's imploding.

1:00:12 You don't see it in Germany where the AFD is picking up

1:00:16 um and the the center left the social democrats are in complete disarray.

1:00:21 Um so I can give you counter examples but what I what we are seeing I

1:00:25 think that reflects um the broader point you're

1:00:28 making is that in democracies where leaders are

1:00:32 showing themselves to be wildly corrupt andor wildly

1:00:37 incompetent um there is a real reaction function

1:00:43 from the publics that thought that they represented

1:00:45 them to to knock them out of power.

1:00:49 And uh I do think that that is a a throughput

1:00:53 line of Hungary and the United States right now.

1:00:57 I think that Trump had a whole bunch of things

1:00:59 that he stood for when he ran for office.

1:01:01 Ending the wars that you're fighting on the backs

1:01:04 of a lot of people that don't have money and connections.

1:01:07 Yeah.

1:01:07 End those wars.

1:01:08 Securing the borders when you're taking care.

1:01:11 inviting all these illegals in and you're providing them with benefits

1:01:15 and and you're not taking care of me and my family.

1:01:19 Noms don't want any of that.

1:01:22 Um and drain the swamp because you got

1:01:24 all these powerful people and you've got a two-tier

1:01:26 system injustice and and I'm done with that and and that's

1:01:30 why we want the Epstein files out.

1:01:32 And now he has gone against his populist

1:01:35 impulses and instincts on all of these things.

1:01:39 Um, I mean, the border is still secure.

1:01:42 That's gone well, but the affordability crisis is real,

1:01:45 and it's on him because of the Iran war.

1:01:48 He's fighting an unnecessary war that Israel certainly cares about,

1:01:51 but the Americans don't.

1:01:53 Um, and he's doing it at the price of the pump and of of of groceries

1:01:59 and these things that like this is why people voted for him.

1:02:02 Said, "We're going to stop doing this crazy

1:02:03 international stuff because you're going to take care

1:02:05 of Americans." He even he was the guy that cut a horrible deal with the Taliban,

1:02:09 allowing them to basically take over the country, right?

1:02:14 But he got to end a trillion dollar

1:02:17 unnecessary bleeding war on the back of not well-connected,

1:02:22 not wealthy Americans.

1:02:24 And people supported that.

1:02:26 and and now whether it's Epstein or whether it's Iran

1:02:31 or whether it's the economy or whether it's it's the extraordinary corruption,

1:02:35 Trump has gone against all of the things that got him elected.

1:02:41 And and I I don't I I certainly think, okay,

1:02:44 there are some MAGA supporters that act like it's a cult

1:02:48 and they'll support him literally no matter what he does.

1:02:51 But that's not even all MAGA supporters.

1:02:54 Not at all.

1:02:54 This is not a These people are not brainwashed automatons.

1:02:57 They're not idiots.

1:02:58 They they ultimately see when their leader

1:03:02 is screwing them and it matters to them.

1:03:04 And some of those people, they may not vote for Dems,

1:03:07 but they'll stay home and that matters.

1:03:10 And the independents, absolutely not.

1:03:12 And the Bernie swing voters, absolutely not.

1:03:15 So, I I think that happened in Hungary.

1:03:18 It was a lot harder in Hungary.

1:03:19 Hungary, this guy had power for 16 years.

1:03:22 Hungary.

1:03:23 This guy made it so hard for any opposition

1:03:26 candidate to actually come in and take out a seat.

1:03:32 So much harder to actually win.

1:03:34 And he didn't just win a little.

1:03:35 He won a constitutional majority.

1:03:37 And now Orban is giving up his seat and he's

1:03:40 going to spend the summer in the United States.

1:03:42 Good riddance to bad rubbish.

1:03:45 Um, and uh, I think it's fantastic that the people of Hungary were capable

1:03:51 of voting this bastard out in favor

1:03:54 of someone that actually represented their national interests.

1:03:58 And I feel quite confident that's going

1:03:59 to happen in November here in the United States.

1:04:02 Ian Bremer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group,

1:04:05 the world's leading political risk and research and consulting firm.

1:04:09 Uh, and GZero Media, a company dedicated to providing intelligent

1:04:12 and engaging coverage of international affairs.

1:04:14 He joins us from his office in New York.

1:04:16 Uh Ian, uh always appreciate your time and always learn from you.

1:04:20 Thanks very [music] much.

1:04:21 Thanks.

1:04:22 Great to see you, Scott.

1:04:22 Thanks a lot.

1:04:26 [music] [music]