UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates - Bets, Underdogs, and Parlays!

0:12 A very happy Friday, everyone,

0:15 and welcome to the early edge here on CBS Sports Network.

0:17 We are brought to you by BetMGM.

0:20 My name is Cien Aja and we've got a great show for you today.

0:23 We're going to talk UFC.

0:24 We're going to talk some live betting

0:26 action at the Cadillac Championship for golf,

0:29 and we're going to talk NBA playoff storylines and best bets.

0:32 But, let's start with the following storyline.

0:34 We've got a great UFC card coming up,

0:38 and we've got two guys that are going to talk to you about their best bets.

0:41 Of course, I'm talking UFC Perth.

0:44 Of course, it'll be on Paramount Plus,

0:46 and it's early in the morning, Danny Brasch and Hayden Iverson.

0:49 I'm just I'm wondering, Hayden, I'll start with you.

0:52 This thing on the East Coast starts at 4:00 in the morning.

0:54 The prelims start at 4:00 in the morning for you,

0:56 and Central Time starts at 3:00 in the morning.

0:57 Are we pulling an all-nighter, Hayden?

1:00 Probably get a couple night or a couple hours of sleep and then wake up,

1:03 and then we get fights right away.

1:05 Some of the worst times to go through

1:07 on a Saturday is waiting for the fights to start.

1:10 So, right when you wake up, it'll be right there.

1:12 So, I'm actually quite excited that I don't have to wait

1:15 all day Saturday before I get to watch some fights.

1:18 I like that attitude.

1:19 Danny Brasch, we just saw the the main

1:22 card there between Prates and Jack Della Maddalena.

1:25 Talk to me about your storyline with that main fight.

1:30 I mean, Cien, I'm wondering,

1:31 is Carlos Prates the most lethal striker in the UFC?

1:35 I tried to debate it, and I came up with two names, Alex Pereira Ilia Topuria.

1:39 After that, I mean, those are two of the goats right now.

1:42 There's not really anyone else on that shortlist,

1:44 and it's the lethal weapons that Prates possesses.

1:47 He owns knockout wins with so many different diverse strikes on his record.

1:51 We know about the straight left hand that's a missile down the middle,

1:54 the rib cracking knees, the looping hooks through the guard,

1:57 the spinning attacks, and those head kicks, too, Cien.

2:00 He is dangerous, a sniper from outside,

2:03 and he's pairing that style against Jack Della Maddalena's crisp boxing.

2:06 So, I'm extremely excited to see how he matches up.

2:08 We'll see if JDM can take a punch from Prates because

2:11 even guys that have never gotten knocked out in their UFC career,

2:13 like Leon Edwards, were not able to do so.

2:16 What a fight we have.

2:17 Hayden, what's your main card storyline between JDM and Prates here?

2:22 I think this is one of the best striking matchups we have

2:25 had in a very long time because you have two elite strikers,

2:28 but they both do it in a very different way.

2:31 Jack Della Maddalena is very boxing heavy, and he's going to, you know,

2:34 throw a couple leg kicks here and there,

2:36 but he wants to get to his combinations where he can let off three,

2:39 four, five punches in a row.

2:41 And then, on the Prates side, this guy doesn't want to hang out in the pocket.

2:44 He wants to use that long, lengthy style and his Muay Thai,

2:48 which he has tatted across his chest,

2:50 to ultimately put an end to your your consciousness.

2:53 I mean, this guy knocks out everybody.

2:55 He's got elbows, kicks, knees, punches, and this is just such a great matchup.

3:01 When you think about great matchups,

3:02 a lot of times you think of striker versus grappler, striker versus striker,

3:06 but these are just two guys that will not accept the back foot.

3:09 They always want to come forward.

3:11 So, we're going to see a car crash,

3:13 and it's going to be very interesting to see does boxing beat Muay Thai,

3:16 or does Muay Thai get the W on this this early morning on Saturday?

3:21 Well, we're going to get to your picks on that fight in just a few minutes,

3:24 but let's go to the co-main.

3:25 Obviously, we've got a lot of compelling fights.

3:27 The co-main is certainly one of them, Hayden Iverson.

3:30 Talk to me about this fight in your main storyline.

3:33 Well, we got we got to see if Quillian Sal Kehl is is the real deal,

3:37 and the rise of Quillian has been quite fast.

3:40 I mean, this guy made his UFC debut last year in February,

3:43 and now he's fighting a ranked guy,

3:45 and not only a ranked guy, but Beneil Dariush,

3:48 who's been in the rankings for a very long time.

3:50 So, I mean, he he took that short notice fight against Nazrat Haqparast,

3:55 and he knocked him out with probably the best KO of 2025,

3:58 and that ultimately catapulted him to where he can be fighting a Beneil Dariush,

4:03 and he's a big favorite in this spot.

4:05 So, we're going to find out, can he knock out Beneil Dariush [snorts]

4:09 very quickly in this one?

4:10 And if he doesn't, how does his skillset

4:13 stack up against a guy like Beneil Dariush,

4:15 who many say is one of the most skilled guys in the division,

4:18 and has been for a very long time?

4:20 Brasch, your thoughts on the co-main?

4:23 Hayden took the words from my mouth cuz let me first say, skill for skill,

4:26 Beneil Dariush, forget the division,

4:28 he's one of the best MMA players in all of the UFC.

4:30 He's good everywhere.

4:32 But, I'm wondering, can he still take

4:33 a clean punch because you look at his losses,

4:36 six of the seven pro losses on his career come by knockout.

4:39 Yes, it's been against elite competition,

4:41 but I'm wondering, is the chin still there?

4:43 We know about the power of Quillian Sal Kehl.

4:45 Yes, Beneil Dariush has a massive experience advantage

4:48 losing to guys like Charles Oliveira, Arman Tsarukyan.

4:52 But, after that left hand to the ear from Benoit Saint Denis in the last fight,

4:55 and he just crumbled inside 15 seconds, you know,

4:58 I'm wondering where Beneil Dariush is because

5:00 he also missed weight for that fight,

5:02 and made some hints about wanting to move up to welterweight.

5:05 That ain't happening, Cien.

5:05 This fight's at 155.

5:07 So, if there's a compromised weight cut,

5:09 a guy that's getting knocked out frequently,

5:11 I just fear that straight right hand

5:12 or another big head kick from Quillian Sal Kehl.

5:14 Let's see if Beneil Dariush can still take a punch because if he can,

5:17 this is going to be a very competitive fight.

5:20 Danny, we we talk about the main, the co-main, but there's a lot of prelims,

5:24 there's a lot of fights on this card again, which will be on Paramount Plus.

5:28 Give me maybe some other storylines some other fights we

5:30 need to be paying a little bit more attention to.

5:33 Tai Bam Bam Tuivasa is on a six-fight losing streak,

5:37 and he's the betting favorite, Cien.

5:40 This looks like a redemption spot for Bam Bam.

5:43 I mean, the guy has faced elite competition.

5:45 You're not going to scoff at the names on his losing streak,

5:47 like Ciryl Gane, Alexander Volkov, Sergei Pavlovich.

5:50 These are title contenders.

5:52 But, it's just been the form of late.

5:53 He's taken a ton of damage.

5:54 He's gassed out in some of these fights.

5:56 But, Hayden, in his last fight,

5:57 he showed a ton of heart almost finishing a skyscraper

6:00 of a human being in Talison Teixeira in the third round.

6:02 That showed me that there's something still there.

6:04 He's getting Luis Sutherland on short notice,

6:06 who's a guy that's going to bring a brawling

6:08 style that might play right into Tuivasa's wheelhouse.

6:11 I'm hoping for a big bounce-back knockout, Cien.

6:14 All right, Hayden, talk to me about Steve Erceg because I think

6:16 one of the more compelling things here is this is his hometown.

6:20 Certainly a hometown fight for him.

6:23 Yeah, we got to talk about the hometown guy.

6:24 I mean, this guy, Steve, was one of the best-kept secrets in Australian MMA.

6:29 And then, when he came to the UFC,

6:31 he went on a nice run, and the run was so good,

6:33 he ultimately got a title shot against Alexandre Pantoja,

6:37 and was probably one mistake away

6:39 from beating Alexandre Pantoja and becoming the champion.

6:43 But, since then, he lost to Kai Kara-France,

6:46 where he got knocked out, and then he lost to Brandon Moreno.

6:48 So, he was on a three-fight losing streak.

6:50 Then, he picked up a win in a very

6:52 close fight against Ode Osbourne his last time out.

6:55 So, this is a guy that clearly has the skills

6:57 to compete at the highest level in a championship fight,

7:00 but he's fallen on hard times.

7:01 He's coming off a win.

7:03 So, my question here can he have a resurgence back to that title?

7:06 He's taking on an older guy in Tim Elliott,

7:08 who's 39, who's also a very solid veteran.

7:11 So, this is a good test to see if

7:13 he can get himself back on a winning streak here, and get back to that title.

7:17 All right, gentlemen,

7:17 sit tight cuz we got to get to your best bets for UFC Perth.

7:20 But, I do want to remind everybody that if

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7:44 We got UFC as well.

7:45 We've got our UFC Fight Night Best Bets with Hayden Iverson, Danny Brasch next.

8:06 It's time to talk UFC Fight Night

8:08 Best Bets with Danny Brasch and Hayden Iverson.

8:11 And gentlemen, let's get started with our favorite prelim bet.

8:15 Brasch, let's start with you.

8:17 All right, Cien, I'm going to go with the plus or excuse me,

8:19 I'm going to go with a knockout prop that I really like,

8:22 and it's either a total trap, and I'm a fool for walking into it,

8:25 or this is going to be free money.

8:27 I'm taking Junior Tafa to get a knockout here.

8:29 Look, Tafa's Achilles' heel has been his grappling defense.

8:32 That's how you beat him.

8:32 You take him to the floor, you beat him up, you submit him.

8:35 He's just not improved in that area.

8:37 But, he's facing a guy in Kevin Christian now

8:39 that I just don't quite see as UFC caliber.

8:42 Yeah, he's a really long, lanky striker.

8:44 He's using those long limbs off his back to throw up a triangle chokes.

8:47 He's got a jiu-jitsu game.

8:48 But, as long as Tafa avoids the ground, I think he's knocking this dude out.

8:51 Tafa looked good in his last fight until he hit the floor.

8:54 The floor is lava, Cien.

8:55 Just stay away from it, and he wins this fight easily.

8:57 I don't see Christian on his level as long as it stays standing.

9:01 Hayden Iverson, favorite prelim bet.

9:04 I'm going to look towards a total,

9:05 and it's a total that I can understand why they priced it this way,

9:09 but I just don't really agree with it.

9:10 We're going to go with the over two and a half

9:12 rounds in the Jacob Malkoun versus Jared Cannonier fight.

9:15 Malkoun is a massive favorite here, and I think that's why the the under is

9:20 that juicy because they think Jared Cannonier is completely cooked.

9:23 And he could be.

9:24 He could be washed.

9:24 He's coming off back-to-back round one finish losses.

9:27 But, Malkoun's just not really a finisher.

9:30 He only has one finish in the UFC, and it was by kind of a fluke KO hip bone.

9:35 Don't even ask me.

9:36 If you haven't seen it, don't ask how that actually happened, but it happened.

9:39 The guy got knocked out because he hit

9:41 his he hit his head on Jacob Malkoun's hip.

9:43 So, other than that, he's been going to decisions,

9:46 and he couldn't even finish Torres Finney,

9:48 who blew out his knee in round one his last fight.

9:50 So, over two and a half rounds at plus 150,

9:54 I think is a pretty solid bet here against the a veteran Gerald Meerschaert.

9:59 It definitely seems like value.

10:00 There are also some value in underdogs.

10:03 Hayden, I'm going to ask for your two favorite underdogs and I

10:06 will note that you and Danny have some agreement on Garimba.

10:09 Start there.

10:11 Yeah, we're aligned on that one.

10:12 We both like Themba Gorimbo and real reason that I like it

10:16 is because I think the line is just filled with recency bias.

10:19 Jonathan Meckaliff was an underdog in his UFC debut.

10:22 He was a pick him his last fight and now he's a huge favorite against

10:26 Gorimbo who was a favorite in both of his last two fights where he did lose.

10:30 But I don't really think Gorimbo is

10:32 outmatched anywhere here outside of maybe pure jiu-jitsu.

10:36 I think Gorimbo is arguably the better striker.

10:38 He's the better wrestler and the much better minute winner.

10:41 So I think if he can can avoid getting subbed against Meckaliff,

10:44 he's going to win the minutes and he also is live to get a knockout on the feet.

10:48 So Gorimbo at plus 200, I love.

10:50 And then Vince Morales as well at plus 115.

10:53 Morales is a all around very solid fighter who's on a three-fight losing streak,

10:58 but he's been fighting at a much higher level of competition.

11:00 This is a big step down for Morales taking on Colby Covington

11:04 who to me just isn't really all that great of a fighter.

11:07 I think he's solid overall, but I think Morales is probably the better striker.

11:11 I think he can hang in the grappling, maybe even get the better of it.

11:14 So at plus money, I think he should be a slight favorite.

11:17 All right, Brasco, you've got two dogs and one of them is Gorimbo.

11:21 Yeah, let me talk about how I'm aligned

11:22 with Hayden there because I see it very similarly stylistically,

11:25 the way Hayden broke it down.

11:26 But let me give you a personal angle, too.

11:28 Gorimbo just seems totally dedicated and willing

11:30 to do anything to further his MMA career.

11:33 This is a guy that went to go

11:34 train in the North Caucus Mountains with the Russians, some Olympic wrestlers,

11:37 so he's upping his game and I think he can grind out

11:40 a win on the back of that wrestling against the guy in Meckaliff who,

11:44 like Hayden mentioned, outside of a submission,

11:46 I don't think he's going to be able to out-grapple or out-grind Gorimbo.

11:49 He also cut his entire family off saying that he

11:51 felt they were dragging him down and not really supporting him,

11:54 but rather criticizing and celebrating his losses.

11:56 I mean, if that isn't dedication,

11:58 willing to do anything at all to further yourself, uh then I don't know what is.

12:01 So, that makes me want to take Gorimbo.

12:03 He seems like he's locked in.

12:04 And the other underdog I like see is some Polish power.

12:07 Give me Robert Bryczek at plus 155.

12:09 I'm just feeling like Cam Rowston is another

12:11 soft hometown favorite fighting in the, you know, out of uh Australia here.

12:15 He's a or excuse me, New Zealand.

12:16 He's a city kickboxing guy.

12:17 He's shown a lot of skill, rangy fighter.

12:19 He's got jiu-jitsu and grappling skills on the mat.

12:22 Can hit you with some ground and pound.

12:23 But he he fights a little bit upright for my liking

12:26 and I feel like if Bryczek puts on that pressure and that power,

12:29 he could make the first round really damaging.

12:31 Just make it rough for Rowston.

12:32 And I'm not so sure how he'll respond to that.

12:34 So, I like the momentum of Bryczek who disappointed in his UFC

12:37 debut against a uh uh kind of a low-tier caliber opponent,

12:41 but now is reminding people that he's got something here.

12:43 I think he continues his run.

12:45 All right, let's talk about the main event.

12:46 Let's get to the main event.

12:47 We've got more bets after that, but we got to get those bets out of the way.

12:50 Protus, JDM, Danny Brasco, you get the honors.

12:53 This is an excellent fight, Sia.

12:55 I mean, striker's paradise.

12:56 I'm going to go with Protus just because I

12:58 think the threat level is always at a level 10.

13:01 You know, threat level mid- midnight to quote Michael Scott.

13:04 Any shot can compromise you.

13:05 Li Jingliang had never been knocked out.

13:07 Left hook dropped him, put him to sleep.

13:09 You know, Leon Edwards had never been knocked out.

13:12 Straight left hand.

13:13 Good night.

13:13 Fight's over.

13:14 Geoff Neal hadn't been knocked out in eight years.

13:16 Spinning backfist at the buzzer of the first round.

13:18 Good night.

13:19 JDM's boxing style in the pocket could make

13:21 it problematic for Protus because if he closes distance,

13:24 keeps it dirty, maybe clinches up,

13:26 dirty boxes a little bit, I can see JDM having a lot of success,

13:29 especially early if Protus isn't managing range the way he wants to.

13:33 But just like I mentioned, one shot can compromise and change the fight and I've

13:37 seen JDM take damage against lesser strikers like Gilbert Burns,

13:41 like Belal Muhammad.

13:42 I feel like Protus is just too dangerous.

13:44 We saw the durability and the cardio is there

13:46 as well despite losing to Ian Garry in a five-rounder.

13:49 Kind of felt like Israel Adesanya versus Alex Pereira when Adesanya

13:53 won 24 of 25 minutes and then it just didn't matter.

13:56 Protus almost did that to Ian Garry and that's just

13:58 what how I feel the sentiment of that threat level there.

14:00 I think he wins this fight on damage, Sia.

14:03 All right.

14:04 Well, you think this fight, Hayden, goes the distance.

14:08 Yeah, all I've been hearing all week is this fight is

14:10 not going the distance and when I hear that from many people,

14:13 I think the the red alarm should sound and say, "Okay,

14:16 we might have to take a look

14:17 at this fight going the distance." And it's plus 175.

14:21 Obviously, the danger from Protus is very scary,

14:23 but Jack Della Maddalena, I mean, look at the guy's face.

14:26 His nose is crooked.

14:27 This guy can take a punch.

14:28 And then we just think about these guys as strikers.

14:31 They're both elite of the elite.

14:33 I don't know that either one is going

14:34 to get the better of of the other very consistently.

14:38 I think it could be a back-and-forth type of thing.

14:40 JDM gets his volume going, Protus lands some big shots,

14:43 and they go back and forth.

14:44 So, I like the fight to go the distance at plus 175.

14:48 If when I look at the sides, I do think it is kind of a true pick 'em fight.

14:51 So, I don't think there's any value taking either guy on the money line.

14:55 So, we're going to go try to take some

14:56 plus money on the fight to go the distance.

14:58 And if you want to get real cheeky with it,

15:00 you can go ends by split or majority decision at plus 650 cuz I

15:04 do think it'll be a very competitive fight if it does go all five rounds.

15:08 All right, we can win all of these main event main event picks, can we not?

15:12 Let's go to our best bets.

15:13 Give me two best bets for you can pick anything on the entire card.

15:17 Hayden Iverson, I'll start with you.

15:19 Yeah, I'm going to go with Brando Parisic for my first one at minus 130.

15:24 This guy just seems like he could be a real player at the heavyweight division

15:28 and Shamil Gaziev to me just is going

15:30 to be at a very significant speed disadvantage.

15:32 Brando is a very good athlete.

15:34 He's got a long reach at 80 inches.

15:36 Seems like he's got some serious power.

15:39 So, I like that speed, power, and athleticism to take over.

15:42 Probably gets an early knockout, but his KO line is like even money.

15:46 So, we're not really getting much difference there on the money line.

15:49 If it does go the distance, I think Parisic can handle himself against Gaziev.

15:52 And then my second one,

15:53 I'm going to go Steve Erceg to win by round three or decision at minus 120.

15:58 We're going to get his money line down a little bit.

16:00 I think most of his win equity does come in a decision manner,

16:03 but Tim Elliott has been submitted a few times in round three

16:06 and and Steve is going to be dangerous on the ground with Tim Elliott.

16:09 So, I like Steve Erceg to bounce back here against the 39-year-old Elliott.

16:14 Those are my two best bets.

16:15 I think we go two and 0.

16:17 I think we go two and 0 as well.

16:18 Let's try four and 0, Danny.

16:20 Yeah, I like those very much.

16:21 Let's go for it, Sia.

16:22 First of all, I like the Tai Tuivasa redemption arc right here.

16:26 We're doing a shoey.

16:26 Someone's throwing their shoe into the octagon.

16:28 We're putting a beer in it and celebrating Tai Tuivasa bam bam style because

16:32 he's getting this finish over Louis Sutherland

16:34 who's flying in on short notice here.

16:36 Tuivasa was supposed to fight Sean Sharaf,

16:37 but he was forced to pull out due to broken nose in training and now he

16:40 gets a brawling style opponent that is just

16:43 not prepared for a the power of Tuivasa.

16:45 I know the six-fight losing streak is really ugly,

16:48 but I'll have you remember he dropped Cyril

16:50 Gane in that first loss on this ugly streak.

16:52 He's still got insane power in those hands and those low kicks.

16:55 I can see him slapping a calf kick, Sutherland falling,

16:58 and Tai just finishing up with brutal ground and pound.

17:00 Give me the Tai Tuivasa knockout here and Sia,

17:03 I also like a long plus money shot.

17:05 Hayden talked about Vince Morales as an underdog

17:07 fighting a guy in Colby Covington.

17:09 Covington was pretty competitive in his last

17:11 fight against a pretty raw and unrefined prospect.

17:13 Morales, the experience, the crafty unorthodox submissions.

17:17 Watch out for the Peruvian necktie, the Anaconda chokes.

17:21 Morales had those deep in on much better opponents like

17:24 Raul Rosas and Elijah Smith in his last two fights.

17:27 If he locks one of those up, I think he can finish it against Covington.

17:30 Give me the Morales sub plus 750 here.

17:33 Absolutely love it.

17:34 I cannot wait to watch this.

17:35 I am going to sleep for a few hours.

17:37 I'm going to do the Hayden Iverson thing

17:38 where I probably go to bed around 10:30, 11:00 or at least I'll try.

17:41 Wake up around 3:00, 3:30 and catch all of these fights on Paramount Plus.

17:45 Danny Brasco, Hayden Iverson,

17:46 thank you very much for all the analysis and the best bets.