This Won't Be Enough, Valve

0:00 Between April 30th and May 1st, Bra Lynch, who was uh correct about the Steam

0:05 Controller import documents a couple weeks ago,

0:08 posted that the United States received a total

0:10 of 50 tons of game consoles from Valve.

0:13 It is unclear if this is the new Steam Machine, which is would be the console,

0:18 or the Steam Frame, which is Valve's new VR headset,

0:22 or possibly even just a bunch of Steam Decks.

0:25 Though unlikely, uh but they were also game consoles when imported before.

0:30 So, it wouldn't it wouldn't be too weird.

0:33 Uh it's worth noting 50 tons is not maybe actually as much as you might think.

0:37 The Steam Machine was confirmed to weigh around 6 lb,

0:40 which would be about 20,000 units,

0:43 which is probably not enough, even if you think it's not hyper compelling,

0:49 because if we look at like the Steam Controller,

0:52 which basically every review that I saw was like,

0:55 "It's a little expensive for what it is." And then it just instantly sold out.

0:58 Like, it's Steam hardware.

0:59 It's just going to fly.

1:01 Um So, yeah.

1:02 I I I mean, if this is the entirety of the initial wave of the Steam Machines,

1:08 I think they're just going to fly out immediately.

1:11 Uh yeah.

1:11 Yeah.

1:12 I um I Is it our discussion question on this one,

1:15 or is it our discussion question on a different one?

1:18 Uh Yeah, I don't remember.

1:21 But I'm going to move our discussion question

1:23 Sorry.

1:24 Elijah included that the math to figure out that it was 20,000 units

1:27 is accounting for shipping weight and sea can weight and things like that.

1:31 Yeah, okay.

1:33 Um I guess my my question here is Ah, yes.

1:37 This is actually our discussion question

1:39 for the Steam Controller selling out in 30 minutes.

1:43 Um and it was, you know, given Valve's history with, you know, the Steam Deck,

1:48 was the day one sellout just unavoidable,

1:52 or should a company of Valve scale have been better prepared?

1:56 And I guess I have the same question when we come to the Steam Machine.

2:01 If, and this is a big if because we don't know for sure,

2:04 but if this is just 20,000 units of Steam Machines for the US market,

2:11 is Valve being kind of irresponsible

2:15 in launching it with such limited inventory,

2:17 or is it possible that this is just, you know,

2:20 the the first shipment and, you know, the next,

2:23 five sea cans coming in are going to mean that we're

2:26 actually going to have a reasonable amount of of launch inventory?

2:29 Like, if they launch this with just 20,000 units,

2:31 is that just kind of asking for trouble from scalpers

2:35 because Steam Controllers are going for like hundreds of dollars.

2:38 this is the Steam Machine, basically everyone on the internet has been saying,

2:43 "Ah, I'm not that interested." for a long time.

2:46 [laughter] So, like, if you're if you're choosing,

2:48 yes, I still think it's low, personally,

2:50 but if you're choosing the stock for this, I can

2:52 understand being a little bit concerned compared to the Steam Deck,

2:55 even compared to the Steam Controller.

2:57 People were very interested in the Steam Controller,

2:59 they just said it was expensive.

3:00 And then Steam hardware is going to just be like, "Whatever,

3:02 people are going to pay for it anyways." Uh but the Steam Machine,

3:05 like, most the press I saw on it was saying,

3:08 "Mm, it's not super compelling." Um which But if you're Valve,

3:12 don't you have Like, if you're Valve,

3:14 don't you have kind of a don't you have kind of a responsibility to to make

3:20 your products available when you say they're

3:22 available and stop acting like a small company?

3:24 I think that the Steam Deck, if I remember correctly,

3:28 sold out pretty much immediately, but then had fairly rapid waves of restocks.

3:32 Did it not?

3:34 Sorry.

3:34 Uh oh, yeah.

3:35 Um Yes.

3:37 Yes, it it was restocked pretty rapidly,

3:40 so it was clear that they were kind of they kind of had staged shipments

3:45 that were sort of in various stages

3:48 of being transported across the ocean at the time.

3:51 Um it's also possible,

3:52 though I'm just speculating on this, but it is a pretty common strategy,

3:56 that they would have,

3:57 if they had like one shipment in their warehouse, and like one at the dock,

4:02 and one at the midpoint of the ocean, and one that was just wrapping production,

4:06 sometimes what will happen is if things go way better than expected,

4:10 they'll actually take that one that is just wrapping production,

4:14 throw it on a plane,

4:15 and it'll actually beat any of those other ones to the warehouse,

4:18 so you can kind of you can kind of massage the availability of things that way.

4:23 Like we've we've had to do that with some of the cables.

4:25 We've had to air freight them rather than sea freight them,

4:27 just because the demand is so ridiculous.

4:30 Um, but I just I don't know, man.

4:32 I'm seeing what they did with the controller is not really giving

4:35 me a ton of faith that Valve is adequately stocking this thing,

4:39 and at a certain point, I've actually had a Valve employee say to me,

4:44 like, unironically, you know, something something something,

4:50 but like, you know, we're a small company, so blah blah blah, and I go, listen.

4:59 [laughter] Revenue revenue and profit-wise, you're not a small company at all.

5:02 As as a hardware company, they don't ship that much hardware.

5:08 Um, and I I think that side of their business is is is relatively small,

5:14 but still they they they could not be, as you're saying.

5:18 Um, I think as well, it's it's it's like scalper bait.

5:22 Um, there's there's tons of these controllers on like eBay and elsewhere.

5:27 Uh, I it's it's tough,

5:29 because I I I wish that they did more to fight

5:31 against that, but I don't necessarily know what they do.

5:35 That doesn't make it

5:37 [sighs and gasps] One of the things they could have done was they could have

5:40 just not called it the exact same name as the original Steam Controller,

5:44 which is causing a lot of OG Steam Controllers

5:47 to be sold at scalper prices by, you know,

5:51 two confused relatives or gift givers right now.

5:54 That's um That's true.

5:55 That's a really frustrating situation that was completely avoidable

5:59 that I raised with Valve when they did the unveiling.

6:02 And I was like, "Hey,

6:03 this is a really bad idea." I raised it again in the review.

6:07 And then, I just I don't know.

6:08 I was feeling kind of sassy and I sent them an I told you so as well.

6:12 I was like, I basically linked them like a bunch of scalper eBay listings.

6:17 And I was like, "Hey, so just a, you know,

6:21 third time this was super avoidable and you guys didn't have to do this.

6:26 You could have just named it in a way that wasn't confusing."

6:28 Yeah, people are now calling it the Valve Steam Controller 2026 model.

6:35 And if Valve had called it that, I wouldn't have even been that mad.

6:40 a little bit better.

6:42 But they just called it Steam Controller.

6:44 Like guys so avoidable.

6:48 And so, I guess I'm just I guess I'm just kind

6:50 of this is just kind of a run of avoidable issues from them.

6:55 And I And I hope that like, A, I hope we give Nintendo enough appreciation

7:01 for what they did with the Switch 2 launch.

7:03 They took the time.

7:05 They delayed the launch.

7:07 They built up inventory to make sure that if

7:09 you wanted a Switch 2 pretty much at launch, you could go and get one.

7:14 And that's that's something that is not necessarily

7:17 good for their cash flow and to your point, can be a risky thing to do.

7:22 But it's good for your customers.

7:24 And I I I want Valve to stop behaving like a scrappy startup

7:30 and act like a real company when it comes to their product launches.

7:34 And I realize this is kind of rich coming from the guy who

7:36 can't keep his cables in stock for more than flipping 20 minutes, right?

7:41 I get that.

7:43 but come on, man.

7:44 I definitely operate with constraints that Valve does not have.

7:50 It just doesn't have.

7:55 Yeah.

7:57 Um with all of that said, hey, where are you at for Steam Machine?

8:02 Like, I feel like in the initial launch window, people were super excited.

8:08 The uh excitement kind of waned as we

8:11 made our way into the RAM pocalypse apocalypse

8:13 and and a lot of the pricing estimates for the Steam Machine started to go up.

8:18 Um Valve clearly has gotten their hands on enough RAM to manufacture

8:22 the thing cuz they haven't actually delayed the launch outside of Q2,

8:25 which means it's coming in the next 7 to 8 weeks,

8:29 where's your bullishness right now?

8:31 I still think it's super cool.

8:32 I I I don't think the lack of interest due

8:37 to RAM apocalypse has anything to do with Steam Machine.

8:39 I think a very very significant amount of people are just not interested

8:43 in computers right now because they are in a lot of ways kind of boring.

8:49 Like, the most interesting news in computer land

8:52 right now is people running away from Windows.

8:55 It's not It's not hardware.

8:56 And then hardware is super super super expensive.

9:00 Uh and it's it's just a terrible time to be into computers, unfortunately.

9:04 So, I think that is what reduced the interest in the Steam Machine,

9:08 nothing to do with the actual Steam Machine itself.

9:11 Uh really?

9:12 I I think so.

9:13 When when you look at handhelds,

9:15 people prefer the Steam Deck mostly over pretty much all the alternatives,

9:20 even though the Steam Deck is pretty old

9:22 and under performant compared to alternatives at this point.

9:26 Um and I I think there will be a market

9:28 of people that will really like a Steam Machine.

9:30 People like Steam hardware.

9:31 It's another push forward for for Linux, for Steam OS.

9:35 I think both of these things are good.

9:37 I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Steam Machine is at least part of the kick

9:41 in the pants that that pushed AMD to try again to push for the HDMI 2.1 thing.

9:48 Um I I think it it just keeps progressing this same

9:52 thing that we've been trying to push for for a while now,

9:54 which is which is Linux for more people.

9:57 Um and that's great.

9:58 I think people will buy it.

10:00 I suspect if it's 20,000 units, it's going to disappear immediately.

10:05 I I don't suspect it's going to be like oh my god,

10:10 this like incredible value option that a bunch of people

10:12 seem to think that it was going to be.

10:15 Um [sighs] I wish it was.

10:18 I don't think so.

10:19 it was, too.

10:20 I don't think it needs to be.

10:21 to be in the grand scheme of things?

10:23 If what the Steam Machine can accomplish is it can

10:27 is it can make PC gaming a more console-like experience,

10:31 something that's easier to to get into, even if

10:34 it even if the money barrier is still there,

10:37 something that requires less sort of technical know-how,

10:41 if it takes people out of their comfort zone and puts them into Linux,

10:46 if it creates an install base for Linux

10:48 that incentivizes developers to target this hardware platform,

10:52 like can we then can we then forgive Valve

10:55 if the Steam Machine ultimately is not that affordable?

10:59 I like there there's some people in full plane chat.

11:02 McBain said that the Steam Machine will need to be cheap.

11:05 Um Deck Hawk said the Deck hit a value proposition.

11:09 I hear what you guys are saying.

11:10 That's very true.

11:11 The controller sure as heck didn't sold out in 30 minutes.

11:16 Um I I don't think the machine is as compelling as the controller.

11:21 I don't think the machine is as compelling as the Deck.

11:24 I think Valve knows both of these things.

11:27 I think for the people who kind of want a home theater machine,

11:30 and it would be pretty cool to have a SteamOS powered home theater machine.

11:35 Yeah.

11:37 [clears throat] Paired with the knowledge that is kind

11:40 of weird and a little bit uncomfortable for me,

11:41 but the knowledge that an incredible amount of people just buy pre-builds.

11:45 This is a cool Steam powered pre-build that is trendy because it's Linux

11:50 and SteamOS and it can play all your freaking Steam games and it's

11:53 on your TV and your cool new Steam controller works with it

11:56 and your Steam Deck and your Steam Machine are kind of in the same ecosystem.

12:01 Neat.

12:01 I still think it has all of those things.

12:03 I don't think it's going to be super price competitive.

12:06 I think for a lot of people it's going to price them out because

12:09 any computer right now is basically going

12:12 to price out a massive amount of people.

12:13 It just is a fact at the moment.

12:16 Um but especially if they're bringing in low volume,

12:19 I think it's going to do well for them

12:21 and I welcome anything that uh is honestly going to keep

12:26 spicing up the competition in the operating system space right

12:28 now because even if Microsoft is waking up a little bit,

12:33 I need them to wake up a lot.