What A Year...

0:00 Hello everyone.

0:00 Welcome to the annual finance rewind here on the plane bagel.

0:04 I'm your host Richard Coffin.

0:05 We have made it to the end of yet

0:07 another eventful 12 months mostly in one piece.

0:10 And as is tradition here on the plane bagel,

0:13 we'll take the opportunity as we adorn our festive sweaters to reflect and take

0:17 a walk down memory lane on the key happenings and events that help define 2025.

0:22 I always quite enjoy doing these videos.

0:24 to give me a good chance to reflect on everything and just

0:27 remember the stuff that maybe we uh forgot really happened this year.

0:31 As we summarize some of the key events of the year,

0:33 we'll also take the opportunity to discuss key trends going into 2026.

0:37 So, settle in, grab yourself a cozy drink and sweater like myself.

0:40 Uh we are here to unwind after all with this rewind.

0:44 I know that might be difficult given the past year we've had,

0:47 but we'll do our best to keep things light-hearted as we

0:50 uh take the opportunity to discuss the year we've had.

0:53 A quick thank you to Brilliant for sponsoring this finance rewind.

0:55 Stick to the end for an exclusive offer on their platform.

0:58 And without further ado, let's hop into it.

1:01 January 17th, Donald Trump launches Salana based memecoin, Trumpcoin.

1:07 All right, bad start.

1:08 I agree.

1:08 But but stick with me.

1:09 We we can make it through this.

1:11 The cryptocurrency, which comes just 3 days before

1:13 Trump's inauguration as president of the United States,

1:16 surges over a few days from just over

1:17 a dollar to nearly $75 a coin before correcting downwards.

1:22 The move foreshadows a year of crypto friendly policies

1:24 from the White House and draws some criticism from those who believe

1:26 that pumping a memecoin that you own 80% of presents

1:29 a conflict of interest for the president of the United States.

1:33 Trump puts concerns to rest by offering

1:35 an exclusive dinner to top holders of the memecoin.

1:38 January 18th in briefly the most important news in the finance world.

1:41 Tik Tok goes dark as a ban takes effect in the United States.

1:45 The app, of course, comes back online

1:47 the following day as the government gives Bite Dance,

1:49 the Chinese parent company of Tik Tok,

1:51 75 days to find a US owner for its US operations.

1:55 The ban goes on to be delayed a number

1:56 of times throughout the year with the US government balancing

1:59 the need to protect user data from Chinese snooping

2:02 with American dependence on influencer

2:04 advisers and poorly researched stock picks.

2:06 In December, news comes out that the app has finally entered a deal

2:09 with an investor group backed by the likes of Oracle and Abu Dhabi based MGX.

2:14 January 20th, Donald Trump is inaugurated as the president

2:17 of the United States and hits the ground running,

2:20 issuing a record number of executive orders on his first day in office,

2:24 and keeping up the blistering pace throughout his first year.

2:27 A number of the president's orders prove quite controversial,

2:30 including an attempt to end birthright citizenship,

2:32 the weakening of regulatory agencies like the SEC and FTC,

2:36 the ending of DEI programs within the government,

2:38 a move that's mirrored by many corporations in the country,

2:41 the detention and deportation of immigrants, both illegal and legal,

2:44 the gutting and shuttering of US institutions

2:46 like US Aid and Department of Education,

2:49 the sending of the National Guard to quell dangerous protesters in quote,

2:52 "war ravaged Portland, and of course, making showers great again

2:56 by ending the left's war on water pressure,

2:58 one of the eight such wars the president would help end in his first year.

3:02 January 20th is also the day Donald Trump establishes

3:04 Doge or the Department of Government Efficiency to cut back

3:07 on government excess headed by penny pincher extraordinaire Elon

3:11 Musk who promptly asks workers what they did last week.

3:14 The initiative follows a pledge by Elon

3:15 Musk to cut $2 trillion from government spending

3:19 and comes with a website where the group

3:20 transparently posts really big numbers that they've potentially saved.

3:24 Shockingly, reports soon follow that hiring

3:26 a group of inexperienced college students

3:28 and recent grads to override billions of dollars of government contracts may

3:32 not have been a good idea with analyses pointing to grossly exaggerated

3:36 figures and government spending actually going

3:38 on to increase slightly for the year.

3:40 The group dispands in November with 8 months left in its charter.

3:43 February 1st, in the first of the many

3:45 exhausting tariff updates to come in the year,

3:47 Donald Trump signs an executive order slapping 10% tariffs

3:50 on Chinese goods and 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods.

3:54 Tariffs that, while initially delayed for the latter two countries,

3:57 ultimately go into effect in March.

3:59 The president cites fentanyl and illegal immigration as the main reasons behind

4:03 these tariffs despite Canada in particular

4:05 representing a small fraction of both issues.

4:08 The levies are followed by additional

4:09 sector specific tariffs targeting auto parts,

4:11 steel and aluminum, copper parts, lumber and furniture,

4:15 key industries for the three trade partners.

4:17 Canada and China retaliate with tariffs of their own.

4:20 April 2nd, we of course have the very fateful liberation day where Donald Trump

4:24 shows off some very fancy bristle board

4:25 posters and liberates the world from free trade,

4:28 introducing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports

4:31 into the country and a slew of higher

4:33 country specific tariffs calculated entirely off of each

4:36 country's trade balance with the United States.

4:38 Markets dropped 12% over just a week before the punitive tariffs are postponed

4:43 to allow time for negotiation with the US

4:45 ultimately entering arrangements with the UK,

4:47 Japan, and the entirety of the EU among other countries throughout the year.

4:51 Higher tariffs come back into effect for most other nations.

4:54 August 1st, April 4th, just 2 days after Liberation Day,

4:57 China slaps a 34% tariff on US goods in response

5:00 to the now 54% tariff faced by Chinese goods.

5:04 With the country also introducing export restrictions on key rare

5:07 earth metals required for the production of certain high-tech products.

5:11 And like an UNO pickup 4chain gone terribly wrong, things escalate quickly.

5:15 The US hikes its own tariffs by 50%.

5:17 China calls and goes up 50% as well.

5:19 The US jumps right to 145% at the same

5:22 time it postpones liberation day tariffs for all other countries.

5:25 China hikes its total to 125%.

5:27 And then on May 12th,

5:29 everything's walked back as both countries settle on a 10% baseline tariff.

5:33 Tensions cool further on November 4th as the countries announce

5:36 an agreement to ease trade restrictions further for a year.

5:39 April 28th, we return to Canada where Mark Carney is elected the next prime

5:43 minister of the country in a surprising turn of fortune for the Liberal Party.

5:47 The former Bank of Canada and Bank of England

5:49 governor goes on to take a fairly centrist position,

5:51 opting to invest heavily in promoting so-called nation

5:54 building projects while axing the country's consumer carbon tax,

5:57 reducing the public employee headcount, and tightening immigration.

6:00 While the PM loses contact with Trump over offensive claims

6:02 made in an ad by Ronald Reagan that tariffs don't work,

6:06 Canada strangely finds itself in an advantage position with its flat 35% tariff.

6:11 With 85% of its goods sent to the US still being tariff-free due to an exemption

6:15 for goods compliant with its free trade

6:17 agreement that's still being honored by the US.

6:20 With the agreement coming due for review in 2026,

6:22 however, challenges remain for the Canadian PM.

6:25 May 3rd, after over 60 years as CEO,

6:28 Warren Buffett announces his retirement at the annual

6:30 Bergkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska.

6:34 I attend the meeting but missed the announcement by a couple minutes,

6:37 waiting in line for some peanut brittle.

6:39 Buffett helped grow Bergkshire Hathway

6:40 from a failing textile manufacturer into one

6:43 of the largest conglomerates in the world worth over $1 trillion,

6:47 being viewed by many as one of the greatest investors of our time.

6:50 While Bergkshire stock falls on the announcement over

6:52 concerns of whether anyone can match Buffett's leadership,

6:54 Warren hands the reigns over to someone he believes is able.

6:58 Greg Ael, that is.

6:59 July 4th, Donald Trump signs the one big beautiful bill into law,

7:02 initiating trillions of dollars in tax breaks and spending cuts,

7:05 most notably to social aid programs like SNAP, food benefits, and Medicaid.

7:09 Despite the government expected to save $1.1 trillion from direct spending cuts

7:14 and GDP growth expected to be 2 percentage points higher thanks to the budget,

7:17 the government deficit is ultimately expected to increase by 3 to4 trillion

7:21 over the next decade due to the lower revenue and higher spending

7:25 in certain categories with the bill sending funds to enhance ICE operations

7:28 and to construct a Golden Dome missile defense system over the United States.

7:33 The budget also includes a tax advantaged

7:35 account for American children and initially included

7:37 a so-called revenge tax imposing a levy

7:40 on investment income earned by foreign investors,

7:42 though that section was later removed.

7:44 July 18th, during the so-called crypto week,

7:46 we see lawmakers pass the Genius Act,

7:48 the first major national piece of legislation

7:51 targeting cryptocurrencies in the United States.

7:54 The law sets up a regulatory regime for stable coins

7:56 or cryptocurrencies that peg their value to that of the US dollar,

7:59 imposing disclosure, redemption,

8:01 and registration requirements onto stable coin issuers,

8:04 and moving oversight of the industry away from the SEC and CFTC,

8:08 defining stable coins as neither a security nor a commodity.

8:12 The other two pieces of cryptoeek legislation,

8:14 the Clarity Act and AntiCBDC Act, failed to pass the finish line.

8:18 August 22nd, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers

8:21 his Jackson Hole remarks at the Fed's annual symposium,

8:24 where as part of a five-year review, he announces a return of the central

8:27 bank to a flexible inflation targeting regime

8:30 and a balanced approach regarding its dual

8:32 mandate of maximum employment and stable prices.

8:36 The speech follows months of criticism and even an attempted firing

8:39 of Powell by the president over the bank's high interest rates,

8:43 but signals the bank's willingness to loosen

8:45 restrictive policy amid a weakening labor market.

8:47 The central bank ultimately cuts rates three times after

8:50 the speech and ends its quantitative tightening program December 1st.

8:54 September 22nd, Nvidia announces that it will

8:56 invest $100 billion into OpenAI to support its

8:59 buildout of data centers in return for OpenAI

9:01 filling those data centers with Nvidia chips,

9:04 a deal that some come to label as circular.

9:07 The move raises concerns over the propping up

9:09 of the supposed AI bubble characterized by blistering infrastructure buildout,

9:13 high stock valuations,

9:14 and absurdly large partnerships from unprofitable companies with OpenAI,

9:17 the company behind Sora and ChachiBT

9:19 itself entering deals to spend $1.4 trillion

9:23 over the next 8 years despite earning less than 2% of that as revenue.

9:28 While the technology continues to advance,

9:30 offering exceedingly impressive output,

9:32 concerns remain over whether enduser demand will justify

9:35 the billions of dollars of investment and investor hype.

9:38 With even the government getting in on the action

9:40 with an investment in Intel, Nvidia,

9:42 the chipmaker at the center of most of these incestuous AI partnerships,

9:46 becomes the first company to reach a $5 trillion valuation in October.

9:50 October 1st, we enter the longest government shutdown in US

9:53 history as the Senate fails to pass appropriations legislation

9:57 with Democratic lawmakers pushing to extend affordable care act

9:59 subsidies left to expire under the one big beautiful bill.

10:03 The shutdown lasts 43 days, disrupting the collection of CPI and labor

10:07 data for the month of October and ultimately

10:09 ends November 12th when Republicans agree to put

10:11 the matter to a vote in December.

10:12 As of recording, the issue remains outstanding,

10:14 but with no government shutdown to threaten,

10:16 it appears that the subsidies will expire by year end.

10:19 October 6th, Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high of over $126,000 per coin,

10:24 up 30% for the year before correcting downwards and ultimately

10:28 ending the year down in the mid-s singledigit range.

10:31 While 2025 would be a year full of catalysts for the cryptocurrency,

10:34 including political endorsements,

10:36 the establishment of US Bitcoin strategic reserve in March,

10:38 the pardoning of crypto Silk Road founder Ross Albrech,

10:41 and the rise of Bitcoin Treasury companies who

10:43 raise capital solely for the purpose of buying Bitcoin,

10:46 and funding Michael Sailor's midjourney subscriptions.

10:48 The correction ultimately reflects lower liquidity in the financial

10:51 system and heightened investor concerns over the asset,

10:53 which has come to act more like a volatile tech

10:55 stock than the promised safe haven that many purported to be.

10:59 October 7th, we see ICE Inc., the owner of the New York Stock Exchange,

11:02 invest $2 billion in Poly Market, a crypto-based betting platform.

11:06 The move reflects the growing integration of so-called prediction markets like

11:09 Poly Market and Kalshi where users bet on the outcome of literally

11:13 anything into the financial system with apps like Robin Hood and Coinbase

11:17 even announcing moves to integrate

11:18 prediction markets right alongside investor portfolios,

11:21 enabling users to lose their money gambling in addition

11:24 to losing it on call options and crypto.

11:26 Despite sports betting being banned in a number of states,

11:29 the apps have so far managed to circumvent gambling laws by successfully arguing

11:32 that betting on the existence of aliens

11:34 in 2025 is actually a prudent investment strategy,

11:38 I guess, and should be regulated at the federal level.

11:41 It remains to be seen whether the argument holds up to challenges

11:43 and whether we in fact see aliens confirmed by year end.

11:47 October 28th, Startup 1X launches pre-orders for its humanoid helper robot, Neo,

11:52 the first consumerready robot in the race to build machines

11:54 capable of replacing humans in the performance of broad menial tasks.

11:58 While intended to eventually run autonomously,

12:00 Neo robots will for now be controlled by a dedicated

12:02 operator until they eventually figure out the whole AI part.

12:05 The development is a blow to Elon Musk, who's already duking things out with Sam

12:08 Alman over Chachib being too woke and now

12:11 has to deal with Optimus being dethroned

12:13 as the leading autonomous human operated robot.

12:16 But hey, at least he finally got his robo taxis this year.

12:19 December 19th, the Bank of Japan hikes its central bank target rate to 75%,

12:24 the highest level since 1995.

12:26 A move that comes at a time where

12:27 the country faces all-time high yields for its government bonds.

12:31 The country, one of the only developed nations currently hiking interest rates,

12:34 faces rising inflation and aggressive stimulus

12:37 measures from its newly elected prime minister,

12:38 Sai Dai, aimed at improving the country's lagging GDP growth.

12:42 The higher rates come at the same time as jitters in the US bond market,

12:45 which has likewise seen its bond yields rise

12:47 on weak demand despite the country seeing falling interest rates,

12:50 and has overall raised concerns over another Japanese carry trade unwinding,

12:54 an event that in 2024 led traders to sell

12:56 off US assets to pay back borrowed yen.

12:59 And then finally on December 21st,

13:01 after previously reaching a new all-time high in October,

13:03 gold hits another record price and continues pushing upward,

13:06 reaching as of Friday a price of over $4,500 per troy ounce.

13:11 With the precious metal jumping over 70%

13:13 year-to date amid accumulation by central banks, institutions,

13:17 and a mania of buying activity from retail

13:19 investors in both physical and ETF markets.

13:22 Silver likewise sees its own price reach a new all-time high,

13:25 rising over 100% over the course of 2025.

13:29 While some dubbed the rally as the great debasement trade,

13:31 reflecting market concerns over the US dollar,

13:34 other analysts instead described the move as investor FOMO,

13:36 marking a strange change of characteristic for the asset,

13:39 which historically has been treated more as a safe haven rather

13:42 than something investors plow into when

13:43 markets themselves are at all-time highs.

13:45 And that concludes our rewind of 2025.

13:48 Before hopping into the trends of 2026,

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14:53 And as we look into 2026 and the trends

14:56 that we're experiencing moving into that year,

14:58 much like how many people have described

14:59 the economy as having this sort of K-shaped

15:01 growth with the top percent experiencing a very

15:03 different set of outcomes from the bottom percent,

15:06 we have a very bifurcated outlook.

15:08 On the one hand, there is some optimism in the space.

15:10 The US economy has continued to see strong growth in spite of tariffs.

15:14 The stock market has had a stellar year thanks to big tech.

15:16 And with AI developing at breakneck speed,

15:18 some hold the view that the technology will revolutionize

15:22 and improve everything we do from the emails we write,

15:24 the programs we code, even the content we create.

15:28 On the other hand, there's a whole lot of uncertainty.

15:31 There's the concern that the AI bubble is propping up

15:34 the economy with 40% of GDP growth in the US

15:37 coming from the tech buildout and 10 companies in the S&P

15:40 500 now making up roughly 40% of the index.

15:44 There's a concern that inflation currently

15:46 above target will continue to increase unabated

15:49 with a new Trump appointed Federal Reserve

15:51 chair set to take the position in 2026.

15:54 There's the concern that the K-shaped economy is much weaker than the general

15:58 print figures would lead you to believe

16:00 with tariffs continuing to disrupt certain sectors,

16:02 manufacturing contracting, and the labor market showing signs of weakness.

16:06 And of course, there's a concern

16:07 that heightened geopolitical tensions will continue to intensify

16:11 with 2025 marking a stark increase in direct

16:14 military interventions from the US in Yemen, Iran, and of course, Venezuela,

16:18 where the US has been bombing civilian boats accused of smuggling

16:21 drugs and intercepting oil tankers in a major escalation for the country.

16:25 And while we did see a ceasefire announced

16:27 in Gaza and ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine,

16:30 there's little confidence we'll actually see

16:32 peace hold out with strikes continuing

16:34 in Gaza and Ukraine and Russia still far apart regarding ceasefire terms.

16:38 In addition to the actual war,

16:40 we'll of course continue to see the trade war develop in the new year as global

16:43 economies continue to negotiate and adapt to US

16:45 tariffs and legal challenges play out in the courts.

16:48 We can also expect further deregulation in 2026 under the Trump administration.

16:52 And we'll have to see how prediction

16:53 markets fare given the scrambling of companies to enter and build out the space

16:57 and stakeholders preparing for the legal challenges to come.

17:00 Of course, likely the biggest investment theme going

17:02 into 2026 is none other than the AI bubble,

17:05 which will likely continue to remain top

17:06 of mind as the massive buildout continues.

17:09 But with Trump's track record of giving markets whiplash

17:11 with his unprecedented and questionable policies

17:14 and lastminute changes to said policies,

17:17 it's anyone's guess what themes will dominate

17:19 the markets and how 2026 will ultimately shake out.

17:23 Here's hoping it ends up being a bit more plain.

17:25 But that is our finance rewind for 2025.

17:28 There were of course many other

17:28 notable events that happened throughout the year.

17:30 the wildfires in LA, the new pope from Chicago,

17:33 the election to Mum Donnie in New York, the murder of Charlie Kirk,

17:36 and the transparent release of some Epstein files by accident.

17:40 But hopefully this video offered a helpful review

17:42 and summary of the key headlines and events of 2025,

17:44 and hopefully more engaging than if you had just asked Chad to do it for you.

17:49 And one final point before I sign off for the rest of 2025,

17:52 I want to once again thank you all for watching,

17:54 subscribing, and overall supporting the plane bagel this past 12 months.

17:58 Uh 2025 was the year that we passed

18:00 1 million subscribers here on the plane dagel.

18:02 I got the shiny gold play button.

18:04 So, thank you so much for for affording me

18:07 that and the other opportunities that have come with this.

18:10 I've gotten to launch a new podcast with my co-orker Derek Deadman,

18:13 the dead on the money personal finance podcast.

18:15 I've gotten to sit on panels and talk about topics I'm passionate about,

18:18 to meet and collaborate with other creators.

18:20 I recently got to interview with YouTube OG Philip DeFranco.

18:24 I even got impersonated by an AI scammer this year, which you know,

18:27 I'm not thankful for that, but it does feel like a milestone.

18:30 So, you know, still weirdly proud of it.

18:32 But genuinely, it's been an incredible time in spite

18:35 of the ridiculous nature of some of the stories we cover.

18:37 And 2026 is shaping up to be another great year for the channel.

18:41 So, thank you.

18:42 I hope in these crazy times you find the time to relax,

18:45 unwind, and look forward to the new year.

18:48 I'll be here posting about the finance stuff in 2026,

18:51 and I look forward to seeing you there.

18:53 So, happy holidays, merry Christmas, happy new year.