Global Forecaster: The Brutal 2026 Shift (And The Crisis They Can’t Stop)

0:00 These conversations aren't always easy, but nonetheless, they are important.

0:04 So, every single year, Professor Ian Bremer,

0:07 who's one of the world's leading political scientists,

0:10 produces this risk report, and it highlights the top 10 biggest

0:14 risks that everybody should be thinking about.

0:16 And today, he's going to talk to me about the three that matter the most.

0:21 So, he predicts that a US political revolution is on its way.

0:25 the US has become the biggest driver of geopolitical uncertainty

0:30 in the world and in my view Trump will fail.

0:34 And he also says that the other thing everybody needs to be talking

0:36 about and aware of is what's really playing out with AI behind the scenes.

0:40 They created a model which is so powerful

0:43 that they couldn't release it because it would have been

0:46 an immediate systemic risk to the global economy

0:49 and our security and artificial intelligence is eating its users.

0:54 and we can talk about that.

0:56 And lastly, I want to end on a point of optimism.

0:59 Can we take this craziness and turn it into a utopia with realistic solutions?

1:05 This is super interesting to me.

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1:54 Let's get on with the show.

2:03 Ian Bremer, what is this document that I have in front of me here?

2:09 This is our top risk report.

2:10 We put it out at the beginning of every year.

2:14 try to help people around the world understand the risk environment globally.

2:20 So for the last 30 years your firm has been trying to understand the world

2:25 to help make better decisions based

2:27 on the big picture of what's happening geopolitically.

2:32 Yeah.

2:31 And every year your firm releases this top risk report.

2:35 The 2026 one appears to be pretty prophetic because a lot of things

2:38 that you list as the top risks are playing out before our eyes.

2:42 For anyone that hasn't read this report, what are the most important subjects?

2:46 You wrote this in January.

2:47 We're now sat here in April, I believe.

2:50 What are the most important subjects of the top

2:52 10 risks that you think we should talk about today?

2:54 I think that there are three that are really big.

2:58 Um, the first is that the United States has become the biggest driver of risk,

3:06 the biggest driver of geopolitical uncertainty in the world.

3:11 And we see that with the tariffs.

3:13 We see that with Venezuela.

3:15 We see it with Greenland.

3:17 We see it with Iran.

3:20 I mean, if there was that level of uncertainty in a smaller political system,

3:23 and that happens all the time,

3:25 we wouldn't care as much because the global impact would not matter.

3:28 But everyone out there is affected by even small changes in the United States.

3:31 Suddenly, big changes in the United States.

3:34 The Americans are saying,

3:34 "We no longer want to play by the rules that we set up historically.

3:39 We don't want the free trade system that we put together.

3:43 We don't want to be the global

3:45 policeman that is paying for the collective security.

3:50 We don't want the open borders that used

3:52 to welcome so many people from around the world.

3:55 We want a very different set of rules.

3:58 It's the American system is not being challenged

4:00 by the Chinese saying we don't want the Americans

4:02 themselves and the leadership are saying we refuse

4:05 to be the leader that we used to be.

4:07 So that's number one.

4:08 Yeah, that is number one.

4:09 And this is a critical risk.

4:10 That is a critical risk.

4:11 That's but it's the most important without any question.

4:14 And again, I say critical in terms of it is happening right now.

4:19 It is overwhelmingly likely.

4:21 It's overdetermined.

4:22 Um and the impact is massive.

4:24 So there's no way you could look at the geopolitical

4:27 order today and not say this is the most

4:29 important thing that is not just driving headlines but that's

4:33 creating real movement in how the global economy works,

4:37 how global politics works, global security, everything is driven by this change.

4:43 And what's the second one?

4:44 The second one is the big question of how the second

4:49 most powerful country in the world is responding to all of that.

4:53 Now we in the top risks piece talked about overpowered.

4:58 Overpowered being the global energy dynamic.

5:02 How China has been working to build the most

5:08 effective electric vehicles all over the world at scale

5:12 and the batteries all over the world at scale

5:15 and the critical minerals in rare earths for decades now.

5:18 not just having access so they can exploit them,

5:21 but also so that they can reprocess them.

5:24 For anyone that doesn't know what critical minerals are, Yeah.

5:27 and how important they are to our everyday lives,

5:29 could you give us some color there?

5:31 Sure.

5:31 We're talking about all of these things that you take out of the ground,

5:36 whether it's lithium, antimony, which is in all these devices,

5:41 in every device, in your car battery,

5:44 it's in your missile systems and your advanced weaponry that keeps you

5:50 safe at home or allows you to go to war against somebody.

5:54 I mean, you can't have an advanced

5:56 economy without critical minerals and rare earths.

6:00 and and the Chinese have been investing at scale

6:03 globally in that capability for decades now, thinking long term.

6:09 And a lot of the rest of us have not been thinking long term.

6:12 We're like just in time, globalization.

6:14 How do we make the most money now for our next quarterly return?

6:18 And that reality is making China not a better economy today,

6:24 but it's setting them up for a much stronger long-term trajectory.

6:29 So, as a risk, you're going to ask me to do this.

6:31 It is not as critical as the US political revolution because this is

6:36 focusing on 2026 and China is playing out over a longer period of time.

6:41 But it is absolutely severe because the Chinese

6:46 understand that long-term as countries are saying

6:51 the Americans are less predictable and we're

6:54 more vulnerable to their sudden changes in decisions.

6:57 Many more countries are saying well we want to hedge

6:59 and do more with the Chinese and those decisions really matter.

7:04 If this continues, if this direction of travel continues,

7:06 what happens next in terms of global order,

7:08 in terms of the Middle East, in terms of all of these things we've talked about,

7:11 Trump will fail.

7:12 Um, and and I think that the level of policy incompetence

7:17 and unwillingness to take on expertise is ensuring that it will fail.

7:22 He's quite unpopular on so many issues right now.

7:25 He's going to lose in a big way in the midterms coming up in November.

7:28 And that will make him look like a lame duck.

7:30 and Republicans will start to think about their own

7:33 futures as opposed to holding on to this 80-year-old guy.

7:37 Having said that, we will not have

7:39 resolved these underlying challenges for average Americans.

7:42 So, there will still be a demand

7:44 for a political revolution in the United States.

7:47 The question will be will the next person that comes and captures

7:51 that are they going to be focused on themselves or focused on the country?

7:55 Right?

7:56 that Trump actually identified the symptoms and was able to benefit

8:02 as a political entrepreneur twice from getting

8:05 elected in free and fair elections.

8:07 Right.

8:07 Mostly the reality is a future person.

8:12 We we're in New York right now.

8:13 Zoran Mdani, a democratic socialist, is the mayor of New York City,

8:20 which is like the capital of global capitalism and finance in the world.

8:24 What does that tell you?

8:25 That tells you that there's still a demand for something very different.

8:30 And we don't know is it going to come from the left or the right,

8:33 but we know that that level of uncertainty is growing.

8:36 And it's not just growing in the United States.

8:39 It's growing in the global order.

8:41 Because if the Americans are no longer willing to act as the global leader,

8:44 but no one else is capable of filling those shoes,

8:48 you don't have a G7 or a G20 where governments

8:52 come together and agree on the rules of the road.

8:54 You have a G0, an absence of global leadership, where people, the powerful,

9:00 make the rules that are useful to them and the weak have

9:04 to accept that, have to find a way to live under that.

9:08 That that's where we're heading.

9:10 There was a Yale poll in April 2026

9:13 that said Camala Harris is leading the overall Democratic field

9:16 with 20% narrowly edging out Gavin Newsome at 19%

9:20 and Pete Bhajed at 14% with AOC at 13%.

9:24 Means literally nothing to me.

9:26 You know, I think it was Jim Carville,

9:28 the great um Democratic political strategist that was talking about November.

9:31 He said, "You know what the Democrats need to do?

9:33 They need to all get on a plane

9:35 and go to Turks and Caos until after the election.

9:38 Say nothing.

9:39 be absent.

9:40 Just do not be and allow it's it's like um you know the SunSu

9:45 it's like when your when your opponent is making mistakes stay out of their way.

9:49 When you say the election, do you mean the midterm election?

9:51 Midterm election.

9:52 Yeah.

9:52 Yeah.

9:52 So for now there there's nothing happening

9:56 except Trump and the reaction to Trump.

9:58 Then after that we have a two-year long god

10:01 god help us uh election in the United States.

10:04 billions of dollars will be spent and people will have

10:07 far too much information about far too many of these people.

10:10 Then we can have a conversation.

10:11 It is too early to talk about 2028 right now.

10:13 I have to ask you then what on earth is going on?

10:17 I wonder when we're going to get there.

10:18 We got this big map in front of us here.

10:20 We haven't even touched the Middle East.

10:22 We literally haven't touched it.

10:23 What is going on?

10:25 Like really take me back to the beginning.

10:27 What did Trump think was going to happen?

10:29 How is this linked to Venezuela?

10:31 Why would he do this after saying that he was

10:33 the president that was going to stop all the wars?

10:35 What is the big picture here?

10:36 And literally one of the eight wars that he

10:38 said that he had stopped was with Iran.

10:41 This was not what he was voted in on.

10:45 He was voted in, he ended the war in Afghanistan.

10:47 I mean, he cut the deal with the Taliban.

10:50 Was it a great deal?

10:51 Yeah, for the Taliban it was pretty good.

10:53 But it got the Americans out.

10:55 20 years, a trillion dollars fought on the backs

11:00 of the Afghan people and of Americans, not wealthy Americans,

11:04 not people like Trump that could find a way out of service, but poor Americans

11:10 and Europeans.

11:11 Yeah.

11:11 And Europeans who fought side by side

11:14 with the Americans when the Americans asked them to.

11:16 almost all of them sending troops and many

11:18 of them wounded and dying in the same numbers,

11:21 the same percentages, just as courageous as the Americans were, right?

11:25 So, Americans wanted an end to that.

11:28 Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, what the hell are you guys doing?

11:32 We're not benefiting that.

11:33 Stop it.

11:34 Trump stopped it.

11:35 So, why did he do this?

11:36 Why did he do this?

11:37 Why did he do this?

11:38 I think there are three reasons why he did it.

11:40 I'll take you through.

11:42 First reason you said Venezuela, not on this map.

11:45 Shouldn't be relevant to this map.

11:47 Turns out it's relevant to this map.

11:49 Trump had plans to take out Maduro.

11:53 He's got a lot of people inside his administration

11:56 that see this guy as a real problem.

11:57 And by the way, a problem for the region.

12:00 8 million Venezuelan refugees destabilizing the region.

12:04 Lots of drug export destabilizing the region.

12:07 So he had been planning to do something.

12:09 Was it also linked to oil?

12:11 it was relevant.

12:12 They have the world's largest oil reserves.

12:15 It is going to take far more years than

12:17 Trump will be in office to make that meaningful.

12:20 So, it sounds good from a branding perspective and you're

12:23 going to see a few hundred thousand more barrels a day,

12:26 but it's it's going to be years.

12:28 If you saw that um testimony by the CEO of Exxon Mobile who said, you know,

12:34 Venezuela is not investable today and Trump was angry

12:37 at him and all the other energy CEOs like, "Thank you for saying that.

12:39 We're not saying anything like him.

12:41 Look at him.

12:42 Look at him.

12:42 Not much courage among those CEOs publicly.

12:44 So the oil is a great headline for Trump.

12:47 It doesn't matter much for Trump's presidency as we know.

12:51 Just to get some color on that.

12:52 Is that because they just can't they have to build

12:54 up lots of infrastructure to be able to extract it?

12:55 Oh yeah.

12:56 And and because all their engineers are gone,

12:58 most of them in the oil patch up in Canada, which has similar uh geology to it

13:03 because they've destroyed so much of their infrastructure.

13:06 It's broken down because the governance structure isn't there yet.

13:09 They don't have people that are capable of actually

13:11 ensuring that there will be contracts that you

13:14 would follow through on engage in people that still

13:17 have huge lawsuits that need to be resolved.

13:18 Right?

13:19 So all of this stuff but to get to your I don't

13:21 want to lose sight of your why did Trump do this in Iran.

13:25 So the first point is beginning of the year Trump goes in to Venezuela, right?

13:33 It is the most successful military operation you can possibly imagine.

13:38 Not a single American serviceman or woman is killed.

13:42 They go in, they take Maduro out.

13:45 They don't kill him.

13:46 They don't injure him.

13:47 They bring him to a jail in Brooklyn, right here in New York.

13:51 Out of burrow, but still counts.

13:52 New York City, right?

13:54 Extraordinary.

13:55 And he's facing justice.

13:58 And meanwhile, Deli Rodriguez, right?

14:01 Suddenly, vice president becomes acting president.

14:05 It's like, "Sir, we want to work with you guys.

14:08 We don't want any of that." Right?

14:09 And so, you've got a new government that is has a different trajectory,

14:13 but it's basically the same regime.

14:15 And they say, "Whatever you want, we will work on.

14:17 You want we'll open our oil sector.

14:19 We'll open our mining sector.

14:21 We'll have better rags.

14:22 We'll we'll we'll try to improve the economy for the average Venezuelan.

14:25 I mean, they're starting to become popular.

14:27 In another year, if they had elections in Venezuela,

14:30 it is not inconceivable that she would win in a democratic election,

14:35 which is like blows your mind, right?

14:37 Whole bunch, hundreds of political prisoners, they've released.

14:41 I talked to leaders all over South America.

14:44 They all think this was a success.

14:47 This is enormously popular among the populations

14:49 in those countries because they care about security.

14:53 That's what they've been voting on.

14:54 Their elections have been about the economy and local

14:57 security and Venezuela has been a problem for them, right?

15:00 I mean, they're exporting people causing crime.

15:03 Colombia, Peru, Brazil, this Chile, right?

15:06 This has been a serious issue.

15:08 Trump Trump is hugely feeling great, successful,

15:11 and now he's like, I can do that in Iran.

15:14 I can do it even bigger.

15:15 That's the first reason.

15:16 That's the I said three reasons.

15:17 That's the first reason.

15:18 Second reason, this is not Trump's first rodeo with the Iranians.

15:24 In his first presidency, the Iranians were engaging in strikes against

15:29 the Americans directly and with proxies, uh,

15:32 bases in Iraq, other places also were taking on strikes

15:37 against the biggest refinery in the world in Saudi Arabia.

15:40 Those drone strikes, you may remember,

15:43 the Saudis and the Amiradis were telling the Americans,

15:45 when are you going to do something?

15:46 we need to take some action.

15:48 Trump didn't want to do anything.

15:49 They're getting angry, right?

15:51 Finally, the end of his presidency, he orders,

15:54 pretty bold move, the assassination

15:57 of this incredibly charismatic military leader,

16:00 Kasamsulammani, the head of the Kuds force as it was called in Iran.

16:03 And Iran was so angry and they were going to destroy the United States.

16:07 Death to America.

16:08 What do they actually do?

16:10 Nothing.

16:10 And then last June, Iranians are developing their ballistic missiles.

16:16 They're developing their nuclear enrichment in radian enrichment.

16:20 They're like stockpiling at higher levels 60% and the Israelis want to go in.

16:26 Trump's providing intelligence.

16:27 He doesn't want to go.

16:29 Kind of dangerous.

16:29 The Israelis go in.

16:30 It's enormously popular.

16:32 It's going well.

16:33 Succeeding.

16:33 Trump's like, I want a part of that.

16:35 That's successful.

16:36 So, he joins in.

16:37 Second time Israel took casualties about 100 killed

16:41 I think in the course of that 12-day war.

16:43 The United States Iran talked big did not hit the Americans.

16:47 They threw some missiles at that Alade base in Qatar, the biggest US base.

16:52 They warned the Americans through Iraq before the missiles were launched.

16:56 So it was very clear the Iranians didn't want any part of that fight.

16:59 So Trump is thinking to himself,

17:02 "This is going to be awesome cuz I'm going to go in.

17:05 I'm going to pull Venezuela in Iran.

17:06 And I know they don't want to fight me.

17:08 I kill the Supreme Leader, 86 years old.

17:10 He's going to die anyway.

17:10 He's not that popular among the Iranian, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps,

17:14 the IRGC, because they're the ones that really run the country.

17:18 I'm going to have this huge military force that shows what I'm capable of doing.

17:22 Then the rest of the Iranian leadership,

17:24 they're going to want to work with me just like they did in Venezuela.

17:26 That was reason number two.

17:28 And then the most important reason,

17:31 the most important reason is that unlike Trump's

17:34 first term where he had people around him

17:37 that were patriotic first and foremost to the country

17:40 and when they had disagreements with Trump,

17:42 they let him know and they leaked and they also um were willing occasionally

17:49 to do what they could to undermine

17:51 an incompetent decision that would hurt the country.

17:53 And we saw that whether it was with Mike Pompeo or or or Mad Dog Mattis, right?

18:00 All of these people who were much more independent, strong actors.

18:05 This time around, Trump has some really good adviserss,

18:08 people like Marco Rubio and uh Scott Besson.

18:12 He also has some staggeringly incompetent

18:14 adviserss like Pete Hegath for example.

18:17 But what they all share is that they are first

18:20 and foremost loyal to the president and they will not tell him.

18:25 They won't push back.

18:26 And what he hears from them is shaded towards how brilliant he is.

18:32 And that makes him think that he will be more

18:34 successful even when the military thinks this is a horrible idea.

18:39 And we just saw this with the reporting

18:41 from the head of the joint chiefs, Dan Kaine,

18:43 who clearly thinks that this is a really

18:46 bad idea and understands that the military um

18:49 scenarios are super dangerous and that the Iranians

18:52 will be able to shut down the straight.

18:54 And every military in the US for the last 20,

18:57 30 years has gamed out how the Iranians

19:00 could shut down the straight in a major conflict.

19:03 And Trump hears very little of that and he's taking away.

19:07 I'm incredible.

19:08 I'm confident I'm going to make this happen.

19:10 Those are the reasons he went in.

19:12 And so he thought it would be take out the Supreme Leader,

19:14 then they'll negotiate.

19:15 We'll get a better deal.

19:16 We'll have a political system there or political

19:19 leader there that is obedient to us.

19:21 Yep.

19:21 It'll be and it'll be maybe it won't be a day, but it's not going to be a month.

19:26 And what actually happened?

19:28 That did not happen.

19:29 What actually happened is um the Americans took

19:32 out well the Israelis took out the supreme leader and also took out a lot

19:37 of the military leadership that the Americans had been

19:39 speaking to which is why Trump came out and he said well a lot of the guys

19:43 were talking to are dead now so we don't really know who to work with.

19:47 He said that in the not even if it's true and it

19:50 was you don't want the president saying that right he has no filter.

19:53 Um so which is which is one

19:55 of the more interesting things about this presidency.

19:57 What happened is the Iranian leadership was taken out.

20:01 The response was immediately what they call this mosaic

20:04 situation uh where they decentralized the um military decision-m

20:10 to local commanders because they were worried that the high

20:13 level commanders if they were on cell phones,

20:15 if they were engaging with other commanders,

20:17 the Israelis would know where they were and they'd be able to assassinate them.

20:21 So then suddenly the Iranians were taking shots at other

20:26 at Gulf states at critical infrastructure

20:28 and stopping transit from the straight.

20:32 This is one of the questions I had is in several interviews that Trump has

20:34 done he alludes to the fact that he thinks he's talking to the right people.

20:38 Do you really believe I know there was a meeting recently

20:40 in Pakistan where they sent JD Vance in to negotiate with Iran.

20:45 Do you think anyone is running Iran at the moment?

20:48 Is there leadership in Iran?

20:49 Is it possible to negotiate and control all

20:51 of these dispersed forces um at the moment?

20:57 First, the honest answer is it's impossible to know because this is

21:02 right now the the the internal decision-m of Iran is extremely buttoned up.

21:07 Um and it they ain't talking to anyone uh about that.

21:13 But it's very easy to assess two things.

21:17 first um that their ability to make

21:21 centralized decision plans and implement them is real.

21:26 So when their biggest gas field is hit and they

21:30 say we're going to hit you back in return,

21:32 they are able to implement on that in short order.

21:35 So we've seen a number of occasions in the last five

21:38 weeks where Iran has gone from statement made by the foreign

21:42 ministry and by spokespeople to action taken by local commander

21:47 in Iran which implies that there is a centralized structure.

21:51 We also see toll taking on the strait by individuals

21:56 that are being ordered by the central Iranian government to do that.

22:00 They're not operating by themselves.

22:01 So in that regard, the fact that the Iranians showed up

22:05 in Islamabad in Pakistan with significant leadership with the foreign minister,

22:11 also the speaker of the parliament,

22:13 but also a team of experts who had briefs on negotiating

22:18 on a number of different points on the street and on ballistic

22:23 missiles and on support of proxy actors and on the nuclear

22:28 issue which proved the most divisive in those 21 hours of talks.

22:32 shows that this regime is still very much functioning despite all

22:36 of the Israeli and the American efforts to say that, you know,

22:39 they've done all this incredible damage.

22:41 This regime is still very much in place and they couldn't get a deal.

22:44 So Trump announced that he's going to block the strait of Humuz himself

22:49 just hours ago.

22:49 I think that that is also overstated.

22:52 You have 21 hours of talks led by the vice president of the United States.

22:57 I assure you if these talks were a disaster, they don't last 24 hours.

23:03 Two or three and then they're out.

23:05 21 hours means very substantive conversations on the entire range

23:10 of topics that were of importance to the Americans and the Iranians.

23:15 Trump did not get the outcome he wanted.

23:17 Ultimately, I'm not super surprised because the Iranians feel like they

23:22 have more leverage right now than the United States thinks they do.

23:25 And this frustrates Trump immensely.

23:27 And so at the end, remember he's he's calling and talking

23:30 with Vance more than 10 times over the course of this entire conversation.

23:35 It's a they're they're in regular contact.

23:37 At that point, Trump says, "Okay,

23:40 I'm blockading the street." But just before markets open on Monday,

23:45 you also see reporting that, well, these talks that were a disaster,

23:49 we're we're going to engage in further talks.

23:52 So maybe it wasn't such a disaster.

23:54 Maybe what's really going on here is Trump wants to show that he still has

23:59 more leverage to use against the Iranians

24:01 because he's lost a lot of his leverage.

24:03 He gave a speech to the American people, one speech so far about Iran.

24:06 Prime time speech.

24:08 In that speech, he said, "War's almost over.

24:10 Two to three weeks, Max.

24:11 We're done.

24:12 If I'm the Iranians and I hear that, I'm like, great.

24:15 The Americans can't take this pain anymore.

24:17 They can't take it." He keeps saying, "Straits, not my problem.

24:20 Straits, let them take care of it." I hear that I'm the Iranians.

24:24 Great.

24:25 He can't take this economic pain.

24:26 He knows he doesn't have a military solution.

24:28 So, it's not that the Iranians are only hearing for Trump,

24:32 I'm going to destroy your civilization.

24:33 They're seeing what he's actually doing.

24:35 And he seems to change his mind a lot or not

24:37 follow through on some of the threats that he makes.

24:39 Right.

24:39 Of course.

24:40 And then they also will be aware that he's becoming increasingly unpopular

24:44 on this issue specifically.

24:45 on this issue on this issue specifically.

24:47 He is underwater just like he was

24:48 on Greenland where he eventually completely did a 180.

24:53 He was going to put tariffs on all the Europeans that supported Denmark.

24:56 He had to take Greenland.

24:58 Those things went away.

24:59 So you're sat there.

25:00 You're going Trump's own people are pressurizing

25:02 him to get the hell out of here.

25:04 He's unpopular day by day.

25:06 It's hurting his economy.

25:08 Correct.

25:08 His midterms elections that are coming up.

25:10 He's going to be severely hurt and he's going to lose power in that regard.

25:14 So actually the Iranian leaders,

25:17 I mean they might be incentivized just to wait it out.

25:20 That's right.

25:21 Because they don't think they have to wait it out for months.

25:24 It's a democracy.

25:24 So he's going to be unelected at some point in a couple years.

25:26 They saw China.

25:27 China did this right last year,

25:30 Liberation Day as Trump called it where he puts tariffs on all these countries.

25:34 He puts these high tariffs on China.

25:35 They hit back.

25:36 He does it again.

25:37 They hit back again.

25:38 He's like, "I'm going to do export controls." I said, "Well,

25:40 we're going to shut down your critical

25:41 minerals." Suddenly CEOs are going to Mara Lago.

25:44 They say you got to deal with the Iranians

25:45 or or we're going to shut down our factory lines.

25:47 In red states, Trump has to back down.

25:50 Right?

25:51 So they've we've already seen that when a country

25:54 has leverage over Trump and they can hit him,

25:57 he has the most strong military in the world, but he also has a glass jaw.

26:00 He can't take a hit the way that unelected non-democracies can.

26:05 The Chinese and now the Iranians over the Strait.

26:08 So what Trump is doing with announcing the blockade,

26:12 and by the way, he hasn't broken the ceasefire.

26:13 So even though a blockade is an act of war, he still hasn't said, "Okay,

26:16 you guys have to start hitting the Iranians again right now."

26:19 So he this is still deescalated compared to a week ago.

26:23 A week ago, this looked much more dangerous than it looks today.

26:26 He's saying to the Iranians, hey, I'm willing to cut off your source of funds.

26:31 I'm willing to stop you from exporting oil and making money off of it.

26:35 same Trump that suspended those sanctions on Iran

26:39 because he wanted to keep the prices down.

26:41 So that's that's what's happening right here.

26:44 Iran also, again, I'm trying to put myself in the the mind of, you know,

26:49 the incentive structure of the Iranian leaders.

26:51 They can't let it be seen or known

26:54 that dropping bombs on us made us pander to you.

26:58 Because if they set that precedence, then for the next couple of decades,

27:02 every American leader is going to know, okay, if you want Iran to play ball,

27:05 all you do is take out their leadership,

27:06 you drop loads of bombs on everything they have,

27:08 and then they come and negotiate with you

27:09 and give up their nuclear weapons and everything else.

27:13 So, I imagine there's an element of an Iranians now going, if we buckle here,

27:18 then for the rest of time, America are going to repeat this playbook.

27:22 I I hear what you're saying.

27:23 I I would put it slightly differently.

27:25 I I think that after the 12-day war last June,

27:29 the Iranians understood that their deterrent capacity had failed.

27:34 They were incapable of preventing the Americans and the Israelis

27:39 from hitting them and their proxies whenever they wanted.

27:42 We've talked a lot about Iran.

27:44 We haven't talked at all about Lebanon.

27:47 There's another war going on in Lebanon right now.

27:49 The Israelis are hitting the Lebanese very hard.

27:52 There's over a million displaced people in the last several weeks.

27:55 Why?

27:56 Why?

27:56 What?

27:56 What is this war?

27:57 Well, Hezbollah, which is um a terrorist organization

28:01 uh as recognized by Israel and the United States,

28:04 though not everybody,

28:05 continues to have the ability to engage in strikes against Israel.

28:09 Nowhere close to the strength of the Israeli military.

28:12 But le the Lebanese government promised to disarm them.

28:15 They have not done that.

28:16 And so Hezbollah has been able to continue to engage in missile strikes,

28:20 relatively small numbers of missile strikes

28:23 into the north of Israel where Israeli citizens live.

28:26 There was a period of time after the October 7th

28:29 um attacks by Hamas where over a 100,000 Israelis had

28:34 to evacuate from their homes and their schools and the rest

28:37 for like a year because Hezbollah was making their lives hell.

28:42 Right?

28:43 So what Israel is now doing is they're going

28:45 to take territory about 5 to 7 kilometers of Lebanese land.

28:50 They're going to occupy it as a buffer zone to protect

28:54 those Israeli civilians from Hezbollah being

28:58 able to hit them with their weapons.

29:00 That is the intention here.

29:02 And so what Iran understands is

29:05 that their ability to deter Israel from hitting Hezbollah,

29:09 Hezbollah at the beginning in October 7th,

29:11 Hezbollah was the most powerful non-state military in the world.

29:16 No one else was close.

29:18 And today, Hezbollah has shown

29:20 that their leadership gets targeted and destroyed,

29:23 assassinated across the board by the Israelis, that their military is incapable,

29:29 their critical infrastructure can be disrupted,

29:31 and that Israel can also hit Beirut,

29:33 the capital of Lebanon, and no one can do anything and return to Israel.

29:36 There's lots of chaos going on in the world right now.

29:39 Yes.

29:40 Was there a way to have avoided all of this?

29:43 Was there something that someone could have done further upstream to avoid

29:48 all this chaos that we're seeing now in the Middle East?

29:50 Like what was the first domino that fell

29:52 in Iran?

29:54 You do have an enormously repressive regime

29:57 that has the ability um to take action against

30:02 their own people in a in in a incredibly

30:05 brutal way as we saw play out in January.

30:08 And it's also a regime that does not respect the right of Israel to exist.

30:11 It's also a regime that has been sending weapons and money

30:17 and military advice to other revolutionary actors around the region,

30:22 undermining security in Yemen,

30:26 undermining security um in Iraq, undermining security in Syria.

30:32 So, I mean, the fact that at the core of the Middle East,

30:34 you have a revolutionary regime that was

30:36 exporting instability and violence is a serious problem.

30:40 That's number one.

30:41 Number two, Israel.

30:43 America's top ally in the region.

30:45 America first.

30:46 But Trump still gives billions of dollars every year to Israel,

30:49 even as he's cut off military aid and support for almost everyone,

30:51 including for Ukraine.

30:53 Right.

30:54 This country is very capable of now attacking all of its enemies and creating

31:01 outcomes that it wants whether or not it creates instability in those countries.

31:06 We've seen that in Gaza and the West Bank, right?

31:09 I mean reality is Israel is continuing to take more and more

31:13 territory in the West Bank and no one can do anything about it.

31:16 They hit Lebanon really hard.

31:17 No one can respond to that.

31:19 So that is creating a reality where Israel is able

31:22 to determine outcomes and even attack Iran directly with the United States.

31:27 They felt very confident about taking that on and that there

31:31 would not be backlash that would undermine Israel's own political survival.

31:36 It wasn't an existential risk to Israel and even if Iran developed nukes which

31:41 is everyone wants to prevent from happening but Israel has their own nukes right

31:45 I mean they have like a 100 plus so those are two fundamental drivers

31:50 of of conflict and instability in the region one aligned with the United States

31:56 one a revolutionary theocracy there have been

31:59 very positive developments in this region very

32:01 positive developments first of all Syria Assad

32:06 was a brutal dictator that was overthrown

32:09 by his own people and his own military would not support and fight

32:13 for him and the Russians proved that they

32:14 couldn't support him in a significant way.

32:17 And so now you have an opportunity for Syria to become a representative

32:21 government that can engage with others around the region and more broadly.

32:26 That's a positive.

32:27 You've got Saudi Arabia and the UAE

32:30 and Qatar that are engaging in transformative domestic

32:36 policies to attract investment from all over

32:40 the world to build experiences that everyone would want

32:44 to travel and engage in to create work

32:47 opportunities that are far better remunerated than anything

32:50 that foreign labor could get in their own

32:52 home countries allowing them to bring money home.

32:55 And in the case of Saudi Arabia specifically, they're taking 35 million people.

32:59 Half of that economy used to be closed

33:01 to women and now they're bringing women into the economy.

33:04 They're actually not just educating them,

33:06 but they're giving them opportunities in every area of employment.

33:10 That is one of the most extraordinary stories in the world

33:13 today in terms of change and governance and that continues.

33:16 Then final point here is that in the context of this Iran

33:21 war we do and in the context of a United States which

33:25 is doing less global leadership there are questions of how these countries

33:30 that are aligned with the US want to ensure their own futures.

33:35 And so we see increasingly two different blocks that are starting to form.

33:41 You've got the United Arab Emirates together with Israel.

33:45 You remember the Abraham Accords which was Trump's big foreign policy

33:49 success in his first term where he got these countries the UAE

33:52 and others to recognize Israel and and start doing a lot

33:57 more tourism and you know business and technology transfers and the rest.

34:01 So UAE, Israel, the United States

34:04 and India are increasingly aligning on national security

34:08 and technology and they're becoming more

34:11 of a international block based on this region.

34:16 At the same time, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan long worked

34:20 together on defense are now much more public about an alliance.

34:23 Pakistan is nuclear, Saudi Arabia is not,

34:26 but Pakistan would provide them nuclear weapons if they really wanted it.

34:29 That's absolutely something to think about.

34:31 They are increasingly becoming a regional defense quad.

34:35 Four countries together with Turkey and Egypt.

34:39 Big countries, big populations aligning more diplomatically and on defense

34:45 calling for a regional security architecture in the region,

34:49 but that would not be easily aligned with the UAE,

34:53 America, Israel, and with India.

34:57 So that is also a significant tension.

35:01 And in the context of all of that, 95

35:04 million people in Iran whose military has been substantially degraded,

35:10 whose economy and industry have been substantially degraded and who were

35:14 already running their economy into the ground before the war happened.

35:18 These guys aren't winners.

35:19 They're survivors, right?

35:22 They have influence over the strait, but they're not winning.

35:25 And this is dangerous long term.

35:27 Your firm makes a lot of predictions.

35:29 So I I wanted to ask you to help me

35:33 try and look forward as to how this conflict might end.

35:37 Um we're in a position now where it seems that the US aren't going

35:40 to give up the demand to Iran

35:42 that they cease to develop and pursue nuclear enrichment.

35:46 It appears that Iran have said that they want

35:49 the right and they believe they have the right,

35:50 they said this before this conflict started to enrich uranium

35:54 and to have nuclear power plants and all these kinds of things.

35:56 So how does this end?

35:57 Like Trump's now he's blockaded the straight off news.

36:00 Um we're in another standoff.

36:02 Cease fires in place.

36:03 The ceasefires in place which I think he said was 14 days

36:07 and we're now probably what got 9 10 days left of that.

36:11 Yeah.

36:10 He's thinking a lot about his legacy.

36:12 He can't be reelected.

36:13 He talks sometimes about, you know,

36:15 winning the peace prize and want wanting to be

36:17 on a Mount Rushmore of presidents and all this.

36:20 So he he can't just leave.

36:23 If he just leaves, then Iran carry on with their enrichment program.

36:27 It goes down in history almost like a Bush failure, geopolitical failure.

36:32 He can't just leave.

36:32 He has to be seen to win.

36:35 But also Iran can't let him be seen to win.

36:38 So So how what happens?

36:40 I think unlike almost anybody else you can imagine,

36:44 if he decided that he wanted to end this, he could end this.

36:48 He could just leave and he would say,

36:50 "I won." He's already said this in different ways.

36:52 I don't even care about the nukes because we've already intumeded them.

36:56 They're under all this rubble.

36:58 We've got satellite coverage.

36:59 If the Iranians try to get at them, we can hit them back.

37:02 He's already said that there's already a regime change.

37:04 It's already new people.

37:05 We can work.

37:06 We can talk with these people.

37:07 He already said the strait isn't his problem, right?

37:10 But of course, he's also said different things sometimes in the same tweet.

37:12 Right.

37:13 So he he's picking and choosing.

37:15 But what I'm suggesting to you is

37:17 that Trump has already moved towards deescalation.

37:20 You're spot on when you say he's set the stage to back out.

37:24 To back out.

37:24 We won.

37:25 Regime change.

37:26 Straight is not my problem.

37:26 We have our own oil.

37:27 Blah blah blah blah blah.

37:28 But then if you don't open that straight, I'm going to end civilization.

37:32 Yeah.

37:32 So which was which didn't seem to fit.

37:34 It seemed like he was setting the stage to back out.

37:36 And then suddenly the civilization tweet,

37:37 I'm going to bum bomb your bridges and your nuclear power plants.

37:40 Which suddenly made me think, okay, so maybe he does really care.

37:42 And wasn't plausible, by the way.

37:44 I mean, there was no chance that he

37:45 was actually going to do all that that evening.

37:47 So why didn't he just back out?

37:48 Well, I do not want to be Trump's psychologist, right?

37:51 It is very clear that he is impulsive

37:56 and that he does not have much impulse control.

38:00 Nor does he create around him mechanisms

38:03 that create impulse control that enforce impulse control.

38:06 He's on his phone all the time.

38:08 He watches the media relentlessly.

38:10 People engage with him from all over the world

38:12 on his cell phone and he has recency bias.

38:15 The thing he heard and saw last, he frequently focuses on.

38:18 But he also watches the markets.

38:20 He seems obsessed with the stock stock market.

38:22 That's why so many of the announcements he makes

38:24 are right before or right after the market opens.

38:26 And obviously there's been a lot of insider trading concerns around that too.

38:29 And people there's he's concerned about personal enrichment

38:32 and people around him making billions of dollars.

38:35 That plays in too.

38:36 I I wish it didn't.

38:37 It's it's horrible to talk about.

38:38 But you can't avoid that topic.

38:41 What happens?

38:42 You want to know what happens?

38:43 I don't have a crystal ball.

38:44 No one does.

38:45 But where I think this could be going on the basis

38:48 of that, the most likely outcome is that the ceasefire is eventually extended.

38:53 That we have those talks that were 21 hours that were substantive.

38:57 There'll be more talks.

38:58 Maybe not with the vice president, but there'll be more talks.

39:00 They'll become more substantive.

39:02 and that eventually I expect that the Iranians are more likely

39:07 to give on the nuclear issue and on enrichment if they're

39:12 able to maintain a privileged position on transit through the straight

39:17 because that will help provide them with money and with security.

39:21 They get a level of deterrence if everybody knows

39:24 these guys could shut down the straight in the future.

39:26 That helps them.

39:27 They never had nukes.

39:28 They weren't going to get nukes.

39:29 If they got nukes, they were going to get blown up.

39:31 Like everyone knew that they were two weeks

39:33 away if they had access to the material

39:35 and they reprocessed the nuclear grade and they

39:38 weren't stopped by the Americans and the Israelis.

39:40 That's a lot of ifands, right?

39:42 So, but here they've got influence over the strait.

39:45 They have it.

39:47 They've used it.

39:48 They're using it.

39:49 They're making money.

39:50 Trump does not have a military plan to hit them back.

39:52 So, I think that is the most likely outcome.

39:55 If that is the case, then over time the Iranians will cut more

40:00 deals with more countries to get more oil out.

40:04 And meanwhile, there will be after the ceasefire is in place and strong,

40:09 then the Europeans and other countries, the Indians,

40:11 other countries will come in and they will start escorting

40:14 ships to create a more secure environment in the strait itself.

40:19 That is the good scenario or it's the less

40:22 bad scenario because all of this should have been avoided.

40:24 I want to make sure I'm clear on this scenario.

40:26 You're saying that they'll concede on the nuclear point Iran potentially

40:29 at least somewhat.

40:30 I think they will compromise on the nuclear point,

40:32 but in turn they'll get more control over the straight.

40:35 Yes.

40:36 And what does that mean?

40:36 That they'll be able to decide who goes through there.

40:38 They'll get a toll.

40:39 Oh, they'll get they'll be able to charge.

40:41 And by the way, you could define them charging the toll as part

40:46 of the reconstruction money that they're going

40:48 to need for the war that they just

40:50 reparations for.

40:50 I mean, they'll call it reparations.

40:52 No one else will call it reparations, but that's fine.

40:54 I think that is the good scenario again, the less bad scenario,

40:58 and I would say it is more likely than not.

41:01 There is another scenario, right?

41:03 And the other scenario is that everything that Trump has

41:06 been saying is because he doesn't yet have a military plan.

41:10 Over the last days with all this ceasefire,

41:13 there's still this new aircraft strike group

41:17 that is motoring its way over to the Gulf.

41:21 You got thousands more American troops that are heading into position,

41:26 ground troops, right?

41:27 They're going to have almost 15,000 total that will

41:30 be deployed by Trump since this war started.

41:33 They're going to be there in the next 2 weeks.

41:35 Once Trump has them there, he can use them.

41:40 And there are lots of things he might use them on.

41:42 He keeps saying, I keep seeing him go back.

41:44 Before I was talking about all the ways he was saying,

41:46 we don't need to defend the strait.

41:49 We don't need the nuclear.

41:50 we can hit them.

41:51 But he also has been saying we should take the oil.

41:55 I've heard him say this on a number of occasions.

41:57 I've also seen him say if just the American people were a little more patient,

42:01 we can take the oil.

42:02 What does he mean by taking the oil?

42:04 That's not a block.

42:04 B blockade isn't taking the oil.

42:06 Blockade is stopping the Iranians from getting the oil out.

42:09 Take the oil is control the export facility on Car Island.

42:15 Right.

42:16 And and explain this for for anyone that doesn't know what

42:18 Car Island is and the significance of it in the oil situation.

42:21 This is this is a comparatively small island.

42:23 It's about half the size of Manhattan.

42:27 It's not incredibly fortified or defended.

42:30 Um and it's very close to the Iranian shore and it

42:34 is uh responsible for 90% of the export of Iranian oil.

42:39 sentcom the central command say that you can take

42:43 Car Island with 12 to 15,000 men relatively comfortably.

42:49 So where is Car Island on here?

42:51 Yeah.

42:51 So Car Island is right about here.

42:53 It's not in the straight itself,

42:55 but it is this is it's right off of the Iranian coast

42:58 and and we're talking about 90% of Iranian oil export comes out through there.

43:04 So if the Americans take it,

43:05 obviously very easy for the Iranians to be engaged in strikes against them,

43:09 but the Iranians will not be able to get any oil out.

43:12 So suddenly the Americans have far

43:14 more leverage over the Iranian economy, right?

43:17 In a very direct way, in a very targeted way.

43:20 And that is the way that you take the oil.

43:24 Could Trump take the actually take it out of this region somehow?

43:28 Is there like another passage through that doesn't involve Okay,

43:31 so he could just stop the oil.

43:32 He could stop the oil.

43:33 Okay.

43:33 But again, if he has control of Carg, the oil coming out of CarG,

43:37 if you want to have bring it to market,

43:40 the only ones that could do it would then be the Americans.

43:42 Now, the Iranians at that point could still disrupt the strait.

43:45 And there are other conversations,

43:47 there other military plans about how you might be able to take coastal regions,

43:52 raids on the territory that would take out more ballistic missile sites,

43:57 go after their drones.

43:59 All of this takes more troops.

44:01 All this takes more casualties, but would also give you more capacity

44:05 to eventually enforce a navigable straight with escorts,

44:10 which right now you can't do.

44:11 Right now, the Iranians can prevent you

44:14 from getting any ships out if they wish to.

44:16 I I think that the likelihood that Trump is

44:19 ultimately going to make that order is well below 50%.

44:23 I think that the worst scenario is not the more

44:25 likely one because he understands how unpopular it will be.

44:28 But it does mean that he's going to have

44:31 to sell a pretty ugly pig with lipstick on it.

44:36 Mhm.

44:36 It means that because this was the problem Trump

44:38 has is he can't blame anyone else for this.

44:43 Yeah.

44:42 He's the decider.

44:43 Like he did it.

44:44 I mean, he's got his secretaries in the cabinet.

44:46 They're all saying, "Well, the war, it's up to Trump.

44:48 He's got the war goals.

44:49 It'll be over when he says it.

44:50 It's all about Trump.

44:51 He can blame NATO for not want to join him.

44:53 They're joining him.

44:54 It was his war of choice.

44:55 and he's never been responsible directly for an economic downturn.

44:59 I mean, the the pandemic wasn't his fault, right?

45:02 This is an economic downturn with oil prices shooting up,

45:06 gas is over four bucks a gallon, diesel's over five,

45:10 inflation's ticking up, food prices are going up,

45:13 he's wildly underwater on affordability,

45:16 and he is completely responsible for it.

45:19 No one else is responsible.

45:20 And zooming out even further,

45:22 when we think about this on a global scale, you've got Russia,

45:24 who are at war with the Ukraine,

45:26 that seems to have just completely vanished from the news cycle, by the way.

45:29 It has not in in Europe, I promise you,

45:31 but in the United States, they're talking a lot less about it.

45:33 It's true.

45:34 In Poland, this is a very big issue.

45:36 In the Baltics, it is a very big issue.

45:38 And then you've got China who must be laughing because it

45:42 looks like the United States are just sort of selfharming themselves.

45:46 Yep.

45:46 And then you've got Europe, which is the last power,

45:49 who seem to now just be sort of colluding

45:50 with themselves and getting together and saying, "Listen, you know,

45:52 we're not going to help the US anymore." I mean,

45:54 we I grew up through all these little conflicts and wars,

45:57 and the UK always seemed to come to the US.

46:01 Yeah.

46:02 And for the first time ever,

46:03 I'm watching the UK go, "Actually, no, you do this yourself.

46:06 I'm going to meet with Macron in France,

46:07 and we're going to we're going to uh huddle and um go it alone."

46:12 What is that big picture?

46:13 And which part of that big picture is most pertinent to talk about?

46:15 Yeah, China is the most pertinent because it's the most powerful.

46:19 Russia is the easiest to deal with.

46:21 Um, which is that for the Russians,

46:24 they don't have um much that they produce that's manufactured.

46:28 They don't have very good technology, right?

46:31 They're they're relying more on the Chinese.

46:33 They've got oil there, haven't they?

46:35 That they manufacture.

46:36 They've got oil, they've got gas, they've got fertilizer, right?

46:40 All the things with the prices have just spiked through the roof.

46:43 That's what the Russians have.

46:44 That's where their power is.

46:46 And so they are making so much more money.

46:49 Their economy was really getting squeezed with all the sanctions.

46:52 Now they're getting so much more for everything that they actually sell.

46:55 And the Americans have reduced sanctions like they did on Iran

46:58 against Russia because Trump cares about the markets as you say.

47:01 So Russia's in a better position for that reason.

47:04 And they're in a better position because all the weapons

47:06 the Americans have been selling to the Europeans to get to Ukraine,

47:10 America now needs to get to the Middle East.

47:12 So the the Ukrainians are going to have

47:15 a harder time defending their cities against Russian ballistic missiles,

47:19 against Russian drones.

47:20 So this clearly means that Putin will

47:23 be much much less interested in a ceasefire,

47:27 which let's face it, he wasn't really very interested in to begin with.

47:31 Trump at the beginning of this term promised he would end this war.

47:34 He was hugely frustrated.

47:36 He goes to Israel to announce the Gaza ceasefire.

47:39 It's a big win.

47:40 the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, their standing ovation.

47:44 He's like, you know,

47:45 I thought I was going to get the Russia war done and I failed it.

47:48 They haven't been able to do that.

47:49 I got this one instead.

47:50 Like Trump never brings up his own failures.

47:53 But this really bothers him.

47:55 So here you've got yet more ability for the Russians to say,

47:59 "We're going to persist." And it makes it more likely that Trump will

48:03 eventually do a deal with the Russians over the heads of the Europeans.

48:07 So that's that's the Russia issue kind of in a little box.

48:11 Now Europe, we already talked about

48:13 how Europe is having its problems economically.

48:17 It doesn't have the productivity.

48:18 It doesn't have the growth.

48:19 What What did Europe do wrong in your view?

48:22 Like how did I'm a European, I guess.

48:24 I was born in Botswana in Africa,

48:26 but I moved to the UK when I was young, so I guess I'm I'm British.

48:30 Um, what did the country do wrong?

48:33 because the country was so strong and powerful

48:35 and respected when I was younger and I love Britain.

48:39 But it appears on a global stage that that perception has changed.

48:44 The US are talking to us like a lap dog.

48:47 Yeah.

48:46 At Davos, I saw the talks.

48:47 They're like, "You need to get your together and be

48:50 stronger and stop being so woke blah blah blah blah." Yeah.

48:52 Well, first, the the Americans talking to the Europeans that way

48:56 has a lot more to do with the change in administration.

48:58 Okay.

48:59 I don't think any other Democratic or Republican president

49:02 would do what Trump is doing to his closest allies.

49:05 I think that's more unique.

49:07 But but it is certainly true that over the last 30 years,

49:11 there have been two really big geopolitical shifts.

49:15 Right?

49:15 The United States has shifted its orientation, but not geopolitical power.

49:20 But in terms of power shift, you've got the rise of China and the global south,

49:25 India in particular after China, but China is the biggest piece of that.

49:28 And then you have the decline of American allies.

49:32 Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea.

49:36 These are countries most of which are contracting demographically, right?

49:41 They're countries most of which that have much flatter

49:44 growth and much more reduced productivity than the United States.

49:50 They've not been investing in their own defense.

49:52 They've not been investing in their own technology.

49:54 So what you see is an asymmetry.

49:58 At the same time that the Americans are saying

49:59 we're not interested in the rest of the world.

50:01 We don't want to do all this stuff.

50:02 Want don't want to fight the wars.

50:03 Don't want free trade.

50:04 You're also seeing a reality where those countries don't bring

50:08 as much to the table in a conversation with the United States.

50:12 So the the so-called draggy plan,

50:15 the 800page plan by the former central bank head in Europe,

50:19 the ECB, Mario Draghy, they called him Super Mario.

50:22 He had this competitiveness report that all of these things that the Europeans

50:26 needed to do and he would say the Brits as well to to address

50:30 that to build entrepreneurship to spend in ways that would actually bring

50:35 a return long-term to like invest in new technologies to reduce red tape.

50:41 The plan is there.

50:43 But unlike the United States, unlike China, Europe is not a country.

50:49 Europe is 27 countries in the EU

50:53 and the United Kingdom which decided for Brexit.

50:56 It's a lot harder when you don't have scale.

50:58 It's just harder.

50:59 And when you have elections every, you know,

51:02 sort of couple every few years, it's just more challenging.

51:05 You can't do the sort of stuff that the UAE or the Saudis

51:08 or the Singaporeans or the Chinese can do at scale long term.

51:12 So, as a consequence, what did Europe do wrong?

51:15 Europe focused, Europe believed that the world after the wall came down in 1989,

51:21 after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991,

51:23 they believed that the world was just going to be peaceful,

51:25 that everyone was going to have a system like the Europeans did.

51:28 So, they didn't need to invest in invest in defense.

51:30 And it was okay if they didn't invest in lots of technology because they

51:33 had friends that they could work with and maybe their growth wouldn't be as big,

51:36 but their quality of life would be so high.

51:39 And they were completely wrong.

51:42 China did not.

51:44 They got wealthier, but they didn't suddenly

51:46 align with the United States and Europe.

51:48 China didn't become a free market economy.

51:50 China didn't become a democracy.

51:52 China is a consolidated dictatorship under Xihinping with no

51:57 term limits and with control of the economy, state control of the economy.

52:01 And that that's a not an easy environment

52:04 for the Europeans to be comfortable being non-competitive.

52:08 A lot of this come down to energy and productivity.

52:11 The cost of energy, the cost of energy.

52:13 So a lot of these countries decided to carry on drilling

52:15 oil and pursuing nuclear and a lot of the European

52:18 countries decided to go for net zero where they

52:21 tried to focus more on sort of sustainable energy sources

52:25 whereas China didn't seem to give a quite

52:26 frankly the US didn't really seem to care much um and then also on this point

52:30 of entrepreneurship and innovation these the US

52:34 and China have both really aggressively pursued entrepreneurship

52:36 and innovation and new technologies whereas one could

52:39 make the case that the European environment has

52:41 been less friendly ly to new technologies and innovation.

52:45 So the the Chinese, you said the Chinese didn't really give a Not true.

52:49 The Chinese have invested in everything.

52:52 So the Chinese know that they still need lots

52:54 of dirty coal in order to power um their industry,

52:58 but they also have invested like nobody else in green technologies at scale,

53:03 solar and things like that.

53:05 Solar and wind and their their car companies

53:08 are the electric vehicle leaders in the world.

53:10 and batteries that are the best batteries,

53:12 the most efficient batteries at scale in the world

53:15 and all of the the the materials,

53:18 the raw materials that go into producing those.

53:20 The Chinese have invested in this for decades now.

53:22 And nuclear, right?

53:24 While the while the Europeans have, with the exception of France, France is,

53:27 you know, has heavy nuclear and that's helped them in this crisis,

53:30 most of the Europeans have turned away from nuclear,

53:32 the Europeans have not done an allforall approach.

53:37 The Europeans have done a let's lean into green but let's make other

53:41 technologies more challenging including nuclear which

53:44 should be seen as a green technology.

53:45 So yeah there's no question that that has inhibited growth in Europe.

53:50 The United States has been on again off again.

53:53 You've got one administration that's leaning into green,

53:56 the next one that's not when America should be

53:58 doing America today is the world's leading oil producer

54:02 by a long margin and fracking natural gas

54:06 as well by a long margin doing incredible work there.

54:08 Yet the United States is actively undermining

54:11 the ability to also produce clean technologies for energy.

54:16 Texas produces more sustainable energy than

54:19 any other state in the United States.

54:21 Red Texas.

54:22 So I mean it's not like this is

54:24 these energy technologies are not Republican or Democrat.

54:27 They are at scale becoming cheaper.

54:30 You need all of them.

54:32 And so the Europeans made a mistake in not recognizing that you need everything.

54:38 Everybody says that the United States is the world's

54:40 leading superpower and that has been the case.

54:43 You know hard to argue against that for a long time.

54:46 Is that set to change?

54:48 Is China set to become the world's leading superpower?

54:52 not soon.

54:54 Um but the trae the present trajectory if

54:57 it continues clearly would challenge America's dominant position clearly.

55:03 I mean the US has the dollar is the global reserve currency right now.

55:07 Nothing else is close.

55:08 And transacting in the dollar is a huge

55:11 advantage for the Americans who can continue to print

55:14 money with reckless abandon and run massive deficits

55:18 and have lower interest rates as a consequence.

55:21 China does not have a convertible currency.

55:24 They don't have rule of law.

55:25 If they opened their currency to become convertible,

55:28 there'd be massive capital flight and political instability.

55:31 That's what they worry about.

55:32 So, they don't compete with the US there.

55:34 China's military is still a fraction of the capabilities of the US.

55:38 They're watching what's happening in Venezuela, in Iran.

55:41 They don't have that capacity.

55:43 They're not close.

55:43 They're building their nuclear weapons out.

55:45 They're building their conventional weapons out.

55:47 They have never fought a naval war.

55:49 They have It's decades since they fought a ground war.

55:52 U they're not capable of doing these things.

55:54 So, is there any concern with China?

55:58 Yes.

55:57 What is that concern?

55:58 The concern with China is that the most

56:00 the world changing new technologies out there,

56:03 the Chinese are investing at scale and the Chinese

56:06 are now either at parody or ahead of the Americans

56:09 and everyone else by a long margin in many

56:12 of the core technologies that matter most in the world.

56:15 And what does that potentially mean that is worth paying attention to?

56:18 Why does that matter?

56:20 It means that they can set the rules.

56:21 They can set the standards.

56:23 They can sell the products that you need them.

56:25 that if they determine that they're going to shut you off, you're dead, right?

56:28 I mean, think about what happened.

56:30 The Europeans were so dependent on Russia for gas and for oil.

56:35 And the Russians invade Ukraine, they want to shut it down,

56:38 and it destroys the European economy.

56:40 The Americans are doing just fine.

56:42 The Americans are building and get so

56:45 many of their semiconductors from TSMC in Taiwan.

56:48 I'm sure you've talked about that before in your show.

56:50 Well, what happens if China decides that they want to cut that off?

56:53 If they have that capacity, the Americans are really screwed.

56:56 So you don't want to be in a position where one country,

57:00 an adversarial country that you don't trust,

57:02 have a good relationship with suddenly produces all this stuff

57:06 that you desperately need or your economy will fall apart.

57:09 And yet that is the the the the trajectory where

57:12 president if China if China had elections coming up in November,

57:16 I'd be worried, right?

57:18 Because, you know, you can just imagine a situation

57:21 where the Chinese being more short-term would say,

57:23 "Well, look, the Americans are distracted with Iran

57:26 and the Europeans are distracted with Ukraine.

57:28 Now is our time for Taiwan because we really want to get like all that support.

57:31 So, let's jin it up." Chinese aren't doing short- term at all.

57:34 They're doing long-term.

57:36 The Chinese are thinking for 10 years down the road,

57:38 20 years down the road, and they're investing that way.

57:41 They're taking very little risk.

57:43 They're making no regret moves to set themselves up long

57:46 term while the Americans are doing all this short-term stuff,

57:49 all this electoral cycle stuff.

57:51 That's the worry.

57:52 If the the Americans the biggest danger to the United States,

57:55 not China, it's America.

57:57 It's America getting in its own way

57:59 and not investing in having the best products,

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1:00:13 you um did a TED talk two years ago in June.

1:00:18 It was published in June 14th,

1:00:19 2023 and it's done tens of millions of views on YouTube.

1:00:23 It is titled the next global superpower is not who you think.

1:00:28 Yeah.

1:00:28 And I was looking at the comment section earlier and the some of the top

1:00:31 comments are you called it a year ago and you were 100% right.

1:00:36 There's another one here saying hello writing to you from a year in the future.

1:00:39 I have some bad news about 2025.

1:00:42 You were right.

1:00:44 What were you right about?

1:00:46 I was I guess what they're saying I this you and I

1:00:50 have been talking about the US and China and traditional geopolitics.

1:00:54 What I was saying is that increasingly the world is moving

1:00:57 beyond geopolitics and that the most

1:00:59 important new global leaders aren't countries,

1:01:02 they're technology companies that are writing their own rules.

1:01:06 I was looking how the Russian invasion of Ukraine that that war

1:01:11 started not on the 24th of February but the 23rd of February when

1:01:15 Microsoft found out about all of the cyber strikes that were hitting

1:01:20 Ukraine and made the US government and the Ukrainian government aware of it.

1:01:23 I look at Elon Musk and providing Starlink.

1:01:26 If it wasn't for that, I'm not sure that the Ukrainian government

1:01:28 was going to be able to fight these guys on the ground.

1:01:31 They wouldn't have been able to communicate.

1:01:32 Silinski might be gone.

1:01:34 These are companies.

1:01:35 The US government at that point was

1:01:37 scared about sending all the military support,

1:01:39 but the companies were making a big difference.

1:01:41 Now I see that these new AI tools like we saw with Anthropic and Mythos.

1:01:48 For anyone that doesn't know, Anthropic released a new AI model,

1:01:52 which they say is so capable that it presents the world

1:01:56 with a really fundamental security risk to all of our technology.

1:02:00 They say in their report that in testing this new model,

1:02:05 this new um type of AI could find security vulnerabilities

1:02:09 in lots of different applications and software applications that we use.

1:02:13 So essentially it posed a cyber security risk.

1:02:16 It could hack a lot of banks and

1:02:19 critical infrastructure, your power grid, water systems, anything with software.

1:02:25 and and not just like the things that a hacker

1:02:28 could get to, but every bug that could be exploited.

1:02:32 So, it's so powerful that they couldn't release it because it would

1:02:36 have been an immediate systemic risk to the global economy and our security.

1:02:42 And do you believe them?

1:02:43 I say this because I heard some people debating whether

1:02:45 this was marketing talk for them as a company to say, "Look,

1:02:49 look how powerful we are that we're not going to release this model because it's

1:02:52 it's going to cause that much harm." or do you think they are being responsible?

1:02:57 It is inconceivable to me that a company

1:02:59 that is this capable of raising money and this capable

1:03:03 of talking to the markets is not going to have

1:03:06 a communication strategy that is fully aligned with that.

1:03:09 So of course there's marketing here, but this was a real risk.

1:03:13 When you have Jerome Powell, the chief of the Fed,

1:03:18 and Scott Bessent, the Secretary of Treasury,

1:03:20 looking at this and immediately calling an urgent

1:03:23 meeting of all the CEOs of the banks, saying,

1:03:27 "We have to deploy this internally." And you have JP Morgan, Jamie Diamond,

1:03:31 is by far the best at cyber security in terms of the big

1:03:36 banks and the big US institutions and considers this a five alarm fire.

1:03:41 I I take this very seriously.

1:03:42 Mhm.

1:03:43 I think this is actually a big deal

1:03:45 that also happens to be useful for anthropics marketing,

1:03:48 not least because Anthropic had just been in a big

1:03:51 fight with the defense department and the US

1:03:54 defense department saying we don't want these anthropic

1:03:56 guys because like they're not they're woke, right?

1:03:59 I mean, they don't they refuse to let us use

1:04:02 and deploy their AI in our targeting or our surveillance.

1:04:06 So, we're going to take them out of our system.

1:04:07 Well, turns out you can't afford to take these guys completely out

1:04:11 of your system because what they're doing

1:04:12 is too important for American national security.

1:04:15 So, the timing is convenient from that perspective.

1:04:17 But this risk is real and it's real because

1:04:20 it needs to be deployed immediately to find these bugs

1:04:24 and to patch them before other people have those tools

1:04:28 because other people will have these tools in very short order.

1:04:31 And so on the scale of risks that we have in front of us here, critical, severe,

1:04:36 yep, also severe.

1:04:37 Okay, again would be critical if we were talking about two years

1:04:40 out because we're talking about this year and it's already April.

1:04:42 It just happened.

1:04:43 I would say severe, but my god,

1:04:45 underappreciated because the amount of attention this gets on headlines

1:04:50 compared to Iran or Venezuela compared to China is still tiny.

1:04:55 And is that because of unemployment because AI is

1:04:57 going to take our jobs or is it something else?

1:04:59 Is it the nuclear?

1:05:00 What is it?

1:05:01 No, I mean if if what I just mentioned with anthropic,

1:05:05 like if suddenly your systems are hackable

1:05:09 by anyone that has access to this tool, your markets are going to go down.

1:05:13 Your banks aren't going to work.

1:05:15 Your data is going to be stolen.

1:05:17 You know, your your imagine if the Russians have that capacity,

1:05:20 what they would do with it.

1:05:21 If the Iranians today had that capacity, what they would do with it, they will.

1:05:25 the these AI tools are are becoming available

1:05:29 to anyone with a laptop or a cell phone.

1:05:32 So I mean suddenly in the same way that the war in Russia Ukraine,

1:05:36 Russia is much bigger than Ukraine and yet in the last

1:05:39 3 months Ukraine has actually taken territory back from Russia.

1:05:42 How is that possible?

1:05:43 Technology drones, right?

1:05:46 They have become the most capable drone producer in the world at scale.

1:05:50 so much that when the Iranians were attacked

1:05:53 by the United States and they counter hit, what did the Americans do?

1:05:56 They called Zalinski,

1:05:57 remember the guy that didn't say thank you in the White House, and they said,

1:06:00 "Could we have your help with your drone technologies in figuring out how we

1:06:05 combat Iran for our Gulf allies?" So technology is changing the world so fast,

1:06:11 and it turns out that the biggest way

1:06:13 it's changing our security and the economy is AI.

1:06:16 on this point of AI.

1:06:17 I actually was watching a video this morning before you arrived,

1:06:20 which I I thought I'd show you because um it's quite it's quite dystopian,

1:06:24 but what you'll see in this video is true and it's

1:06:27 happening around the world and I don't think anybody has any ideas.

1:06:30 This is the video.

1:06:32 I'll play it for those of you that are looking at the screen at the moment.

1:06:35 Can you tell what's going on in this video from watching it?

1:06:41 It looks to me um like uh they're uh the work

1:06:46 that they are doing is being uh monitored real time.

1:06:51 Um presumably by some external source.

1:06:54 Um you're going to suggest to me that the external source

1:06:57 that's monitoring them is not a human being but is artificial intelligence.

1:07:01 Yes.

1:07:01 Kind of.

1:07:02 What's happening is a company has paid

1:07:05 these Indian workers to wear cameras on their heads to watch their hands.

1:07:11 Yeah.

1:07:10 To train the AI so that the AI can do that job in the future

1:07:15 to remove the workers from those jobs.

1:07:18 Yes.

1:07:19 Yeah.

1:07:19 So it's kind of like sitting on the branch of a tree

1:07:21 and you yourself cutting the There's this meme I'll throw up on the screen.

1:07:25 It's of a guy sat on the branch of a tree and he's cutting the branch himself.

1:07:28 And what you're seeing here is because the AI companies

1:07:32 and the robotics companies need real world data of these jobs being done,

1:07:36 they're now asking the workers in the factories to record

1:07:39 themselves doing it so that they can replace them.

1:07:43 Yeah.

1:07:43 It's um I laugh because it's slightly terrifying.

1:07:46 It's slightly terrifying and yet it's

1:07:47 also slightly empowering depending on what we

1:07:50 decide to do with the wealth that comes from this because let's face it,

1:07:56 most human beings do not want that work to be what self-actualizes them.

1:08:03 What kind of political system do you need or social

1:08:04 system do you need in such a world where a lot

1:08:07 of the work that we do today is being done

1:08:09 by these intelligent machines and a huge amount of people don't have work?

1:08:13 I was saying to you before we started recording,

1:08:15 a friend of mine called me the other day and he had had

1:08:17 a conversation with one of the most

1:08:18 successful technologists in the world that everybody

1:08:20 knows and he said next year is the year where the unemployment because

1:08:25 of AI really will take hold and people are going to get increasingly annoyed.

1:08:31 They also said that they think the Democrats,

1:08:33 even though I think this person might be Republican,

1:08:35 they think the Democrats are going to win the election

1:08:37 because the impact of AI is going to be so severe

1:08:39 next year in terms of employ unemployment that people are

1:08:42 going to associate the Republicans with being the pro AAI party.

1:08:45 And I saw another report last week saying that AI

1:08:48 is now less popular than ICE in the United States.

1:08:51 And just as a podcaster who has conversations

1:08:53 about this, I know people are are not happy.

1:08:57 I know they're not happy.

1:08:58 I see it in the comment section in part because

1:09:00 we don't see it flowing down and making people's lives better.

1:09:03 We see major corporations getting richer.

1:09:06 And so the funny thing that video you showed me,

1:09:08 most people in the global south are very excited,

1:09:13 enthusiastic about AI because they think it's going

1:09:15 to give them tools to improve their human capital,

1:09:18 to improve their opportunities.

1:09:20 China, the Chinese are very excited about AI because

1:09:24 they think that it's going to make their lives better.

1:09:26 Mhm.

1:09:27 The Americans, the Europeans are not.

1:09:31 They worry that this is actually going to undermine their jobs,

1:09:35 particularly their white collar jobs, uh their knowledge worker jobs.

1:09:39 And and what I think is going to happen politically,

1:09:41 I I I don't agree that we're going

1:09:43 to see massive unemployment in the US next year.

1:09:46 I think there's going to be much more friction.

1:09:47 And most CEOs don't want to get rid

1:09:51 of a lot of their workers unless they have to.

1:09:53 So unless there's a major economic downturn that gives them that excuse,

1:09:57 I think it's going to take a lot longer.

1:09:59 And I also think that social mobilization long

1:10:01 shoreman in the United States like said no AI, you're going to protect our jobs.

1:10:04 And they were willing to actually demonstrate.

1:10:06 They mobilized and it kept AI out.

1:10:08 There'll be a lot of like, you know,

1:10:10 resistance that will slow this process down.

1:10:14 But what I do think is going to happen, I think you'll see it politically.

1:10:18 I was talking to uh someone I know um reasonably well uh a senator,

1:10:23 US senator who was saying uh can't talk right now and prochecknology

1:10:28 person pro business person centrist right someone you and I would recognize

1:10:31 as such say I can't talk about data centers I've never seen people

1:10:37 my constituents so upset about an issue as they do about data centers

1:10:41 AI data centers

1:10:42 AI they said that no jobs energy prices going up water prices going up.

1:10:48 Zoning looks horrible in their neighborhoods.

1:10:50 They're growing like topsy.

1:10:51 Huge amount of investment.

1:10:52 Everyone hates these things.

1:10:54 I I mean Trump in the United States won on the back of a lot

1:10:59 of men who many of whom had good jobs and were making good money,

1:11:04 but they didn't necessarily have advanced degrees.

1:11:07 And they felt like the world was moving away from them.

1:11:09 They saw robotics and automation on their factory lines.

1:11:12 They saw free trade and jobs going to much poorer, much, you know,

1:11:16 less expensive labor around the world,

1:11:18 China especially, but India, other countries.

1:11:20 They said they saw immigrants coming in, but you're

1:11:22 not taking care of me and my family, so why am I letting that happen?

1:11:25 You see this in Europe, too.

1:11:26 This is the Nigel Farage movement.

1:11:28 Like lots of stuff, right?

1:11:29 They voted Trump in not once, but twice.

1:11:33 Despite everything he is, everything he stands for, they voted for.

1:11:36 We haven't seen women with advanced degrees, urban and suburban,

1:11:42 worried about their jobs and worried about their kids.

1:11:46 And that wave of populism is coming absolutely in 2028.

1:11:52 And that is AI is a very big piece of that.

1:11:54 AI, data centers, and the rest.

1:11:56 So in that regard, I agree that there's going to be a real political wave here.

1:12:00 And I don't yet know who the political

1:12:02 figures are that are going to respond to that.

1:12:05 I I don't think that person today exists in the political spectrum.

1:12:09 I haven't seen that person.

1:12:10 It appears that the least popular job or least

1:12:14 popular people in society at the moment are AI CEOs.

1:12:17 I mean, you're probably seeing what um what's going on.

1:12:20 We saw what Sam Alman just had a you know,

1:12:22 the the Molotov cocktail that was actually thrown at his uh

1:12:25 and then yesterday again they said someone shot at his house yesterday.

1:12:29 Yeah.

1:12:29 Yesterday night again.

1:12:32 Yeah.

1:12:31 Which obviously nobody should support violence of this type.

1:12:34 My god, no.

1:12:35 No, but it's not surprising.

1:12:37 And we also had the CEO of United Healthcare gunned down, you know, a year ago,

1:12:41 just uh a few blocks from where you

1:12:43 and I are having this conversation right now.

1:12:45 There is general anger at the elite.

1:12:48 And it's true that the wealthiest people in the United

1:12:50 States right now happen to be those tech owners.

1:12:53 Is there a solution here where the technology which presents

1:12:57 us with tremendous potential upsides can be be thrive and be

1:13:01 successful and make our lives better but also the average person

1:13:04 the working-class people can also capitalize and benefit from this technology?

1:13:09 Of course there is.

1:13:10 What does that look like?

1:13:11 Well, I mean first of all these technologies are already

1:13:14 doing extraordinary things in improving productivity and in reducing waste.

1:13:19 I mean, recycling doesn't work very well, but with AI,

1:13:23 you can recycle in a way that would allow you

1:13:25 to actually get that trash product back into a productive format.

1:13:32 Who wouldn't want the ability to make micro adjustments in um the way

1:13:38 that an airplane is navigating real time because

1:13:42 of AI that reduces fuel consumption by 10%.

1:13:46 Or improve agricultural use.

1:13:48 In Ethiopia, you've got over a hundred million people

1:13:50 and they don't know what to plant and where and when.

1:13:54 Suddenly, you optimize for that.

1:13:55 They have cheaper food.

1:13:56 Like the these are amazing things.

1:13:59 Every day I see uses for these technologies

1:14:02 in companies around the world that blow my mind.

1:14:06 But I also see and again I focus on politics.

1:14:09 And if we blow ourselves up, it's not going to be because of technology.

1:14:13 If we blow ourselves up, it's going to be because of people and politics.

1:14:17 What do you mean by that?

1:14:18 That the system is deploying these technologies in inhumane ways.

1:14:23 It's allowing the benefits of the opportunities

1:14:27 to be captured by a small number of individuals,

1:14:31 a small number of companies that write their own

1:14:33 rules and don't care about people that are getting angry.

1:14:36 So when you ask, violence is the wrong thing.

1:14:39 But if you're seeing that people are getting so

1:14:42 angry that they're starting to do things that they

1:14:45 see the only way that they think that they

1:14:46 can respond is outside of the legal framework.

1:14:50 It's not by voting for somebody new,

1:14:52 but it's by mass action or even violent action.

1:14:55 Then the politics are really broken.

1:14:57 So, do we need like universal basic income or something?

1:14:59 or does there need to be an AI tax or

1:15:01 I don't think that you go from everybody has a full-time job

1:15:05 or aspires to a full-time job to universal basic income in a year.

1:15:10 I I I don't think that happens.

1:15:12 But I could easily see pilot programs that say instead of a five-day

1:15:17 work week in the following areas that we think are going to be disrupted,

1:15:21 it's going to be a 4-day work week or 3-day work week.

1:15:24 And we're going to pay you the same amount of money,

1:15:26 but that additional day every week is going to be

1:15:29 on AI training that will allow you to have a job.

1:15:34 either be more effective in your existing job because

1:15:37 the only the people that know how to deploy

1:15:38 these tools are going to have a job another

1:15:40 three or five years or will allow you to transition.

1:15:43 But you've got to start spending the money on that now.

1:15:46 And this that that guy that you had

1:15:48 that conversation with, I've been watching him publicly.

1:15:52 He's not part of the solution.

1:15:54 He's saying I think the Democrats are going to win.

1:15:56 Oh well, I'll be fine.

1:15:57 I'm still worth a lot of money,

1:15:59 but I'm not going to do anything to actually help facilitate this.

1:16:02 Like if you if the people that are most capable of being aware

1:16:08 of these challenges and of addressing them

1:16:12 are instead all in winner take all mode,

1:16:15 then obviously we're going to have a breakdown in society.

1:16:22 It's a tricky situation, isn't it?

1:16:23 Because we've seen what happens when

1:16:25 governments get involved in technology sometimes,

1:16:28 you know, even in the UK for and the European Union.

1:16:31 Bloody hell.

1:16:32 I remember speaking to I don't know if I have permission to say his name either,

1:16:36 but he is the CTO of one of the biggest technology companies

1:16:38 in the world and he was explaining to me that they can't release their features.

1:16:42 This particular piece of hardware, we can't even release it in Europe

1:16:45 because the European Union have so much regulation.

1:16:49 Yeah.

1:16:49 That they've actually created a bunch of issues for us as companies.

1:16:52 One of them was that in this particular device,

1:16:55 the European Union demand that the battery can

1:16:58 be taken out and put back in again.

1:17:00 And what this actually means, he was explaining to me,

1:17:03 is that we're going to have to buy loads of batteries and keep them on the shelf

1:17:06 and then they're going to go bad and actually

1:17:08 it's going to be worse for the environment,

1:17:10 but also it means that the devices are no longer waterproof.

1:17:12 So more devices are going to break, which is even worse for the environment.

1:17:15 And this overregulation that's

1:17:18 which means that the Europeans are nowhere in terms of competitive.

1:17:21 They know they're not competitive.

1:17:22 So he and you know what he said to me?

1:17:23 He goes, um, and I don't think what the Europeans

1:17:25 don't realize is we just don't need their market anymore.

1:17:27 He said Brazil's coming online and all

1:17:29 these other big markets are coming online as buyers.

1:17:31 So we just can decide just to not sell to to Europe.

1:17:34 So there are three systems out there, right?

1:17:36 Broadly speaking, one system, the United States system,

1:17:40 most power in the hands of the private sector so

1:17:43 much so that they're able to capture the regulatory process,

1:17:46 write their own regulations.

1:17:48 That turns out that system drives an enormous amount of growth and wealth.

1:17:52 The problem is that lots of average Americans do not benefit from it.

1:17:56 Mhm.

1:17:57 Because nobody is looking out for them.

1:17:59 Then they get angry and then they lash out, right?

1:18:02 The Chinese system where the state actually captures the private sector

1:18:06 and they say what the private sector can and can't do.

1:18:09 And frequently they own the private sector, state-owned enterprises, right?

1:18:13 And that system drives an enormous amount of growth over the long term,

1:18:18 but the people have no say over what is and what is not allowed.

1:18:22 And that creates a lot of dissent and this lying flat.

1:18:25 we're not a part of the system and the solution.

1:18:27 Then you have the Europeans and the European system is very oriented towards

1:18:33 we want to make sure that the social contract works for the citizens.

1:18:36 We're very interested in like having all of the benefits that people need,

1:18:40 but we can't afford them because our system

1:18:43 is so heavily regulated and so anti- entrepreneurial

1:18:45 that we don't drive the growth that would

1:18:47 be necessary to keep paying for the people.

1:18:50 Right?

1:18:50 So obviously each of these systems have challenges but the problem comes

1:18:55 not in the nature of the system but in when they become extreme.

1:19:00 Americans today want a new deal whatever that new deal looks like.

1:19:05 And Trump won because of that.

1:19:07 He won because he positioned himself as the outsider

1:19:11 that would make sure those things happen.

1:19:13 Right?

1:19:14 He was the guy that was going to end the wars.

1:19:16 He was the guy that was going to invest in the United States.

1:19:19 America first, not these other countries first.

1:19:21 People like that.

1:19:22 Take care of your people.

1:19:24 That's what they want.

1:19:25 People are voting for very simple things.

1:19:27 They want to be taken care of.

1:19:29 They want to have opportunities for themselves

1:19:31 and their families and their communities.

1:19:32 They don't want to feel despair.

1:19:34 That's what the American dream was all about.

1:19:35 That's why my grandparents came here.

1:19:38 My grandma, Armenian, you know, fled her family fled the genocide.

1:19:42 She came on Ellis Island.

1:19:43 That's why I'm here.

1:19:45 I came and I started a company in a land that had great opportunity.

1:19:47 But most Americans don't believe that applies to them anymore.

1:19:51 And you asking me all these questions about AI.

1:19:54 The answer is very simple.

1:19:56 Give these people the opportunity to create a dream

1:19:59 for themselves and their families in their own countries.

1:20:02 If they don't have that, they will eventually revolt against you.

1:20:06 Is that what history tells us happens next in such a situation where the people

1:20:09 feel more and more powerless and they

1:20:11 feel like they have less and less opportunity?

1:20:14 It doesn't happen everywhere.

1:20:15 I mean, let's face it.

1:20:16 We've got 25 million people in North Korea that have been, you know,

1:20:20 ruled by, you know, a cult figure who they essentially worship for decades now.

1:20:26 So, history doesn't necessarily tell us that it the story always goes well.

1:20:30 But in a democracy, in a democracy, sometimes democracies go bad.

1:20:36 But what we see frequently is push back against people that are kleptocratic,

1:20:42 but it's people that put themselves above the system.

1:20:45 And we've seen that in many cases in many democracies all over the world.

1:20:50 70% of people who add something to their online cart never actually buy it.

1:20:54 And that number is based on over 10 years of research.

1:20:57 But what I think is even more

1:20:58 interesting is what the Bayard Institute discovered.

1:21:00 They're a private research company that ran

1:21:02 a study which found the average e-commerce

1:21:05 store can increase its conversion rate

1:21:06 by 35% just by making its checkout easier.

1:21:10 Not better marketing or better products,

1:21:12 but by delivering a smoother checkout experience.

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1:21:18 I want you to think about moving your business onto Shopify.

1:21:20 It's the platform we use to sell the 1% diaries

1:21:23 and the conversation cards because it's so simple and smart to use.

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1:21:32 tools to help us get up and running straight away.

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1:21:46 That's shopify.com/bartlet.

1:21:48 And don't tell anybody.

1:21:50 We have finally caved in.

1:21:52 So many of you have asked us if we

1:21:54 could bundle the conversation cards with the 1% diary.

1:21:57 For those of you that don't know,

1:21:59 every single time a guest sits here with me in the chair,

1:22:01 they leave a question in the diary of a CEO

1:22:03 and then I ask that question to the next guest.

1:22:05 We don't release those questions in any

1:22:07 environment other than on these incredible conversation cards.

1:22:10 These have become a fantastic tool for people in relationships, people in teams,

1:22:15 in big corporations, and also family members to connect with each other.

1:22:18 With that, we also have the 1% diary,

1:22:20 which is this incredible tool to change habits in your life.

1:22:23 So many of you have asked if it was possible to buy both at the same time,

1:22:27 especially people in big companies.

1:22:29 So, what we've done is we've bundled them together

1:22:32 and you can buy both at the same time.

1:22:34 And if you want to drive connection and instill habit change in your company,

1:22:37 head to the diary.com to inquire and our team will be in touch.

1:22:42 I think the part that I still have this big question

1:22:44 mark in my head about is what you do about that.

1:22:47 I was reading this morning that Jeff Bezos

1:22:49 is investing or raising money raising a hundred

1:22:51 billion dollars for I think it's called

1:22:54 Project Prometheus which is his own AI company.

1:22:56 Um you've got Elon with XAI, you've got Anthropic,

1:23:00 you got Dermis at Google and Sundar, you've got OpenAI, Sam Alman,

1:23:04 you've got all these big tech CEOs that are trying

1:23:07 to sort of raise super intelligence like like it's a child.

1:23:12 Yeah.

1:23:12 And if they are to be successful,

1:23:13 one would one would assert that intelligence itself is the most

1:23:16 powerful commod like currency or commodity that there isn't on planet earth.

1:23:19 So those that you wield it

1:23:21 and commodity is right because Alman talks about you're going

1:23:24 to need to pay for intelligence the way you pay for water.

1:23:28 Yeah.

1:23:27 Or pay for G and that that average American hears

1:23:30 that and goes what what I'm going to have to pay for intelligence.

1:23:34 Yeah.

1:23:34 That that feels like something we have free will over.

1:23:36 Suddenly you don't.

1:23:36 Suddenly a company has control over that.

1:23:38 You know, if you had a wand and you

1:23:40 could wave the wand and solve this techno oligarchy.

1:23:44 Yeah.

1:23:44 What would you do?

1:23:45 I want three things.

1:23:46 I want three types of governance.

1:23:50 First, I I want to make sure um that the United

1:23:54 States and China start to have AI arms control conversations.

1:23:59 When we were fighting the Soviets,

1:24:01 there were no arms control discussions until after 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

1:24:06 We almost blew up the entire world.

1:24:09 That was super dangerous with much much lower levels of technology.

1:24:13 And then after that we said, "Oh,

1:24:14 maybe we should like have a have a hotline between the two leaders.

1:24:18 Oh, maybe we should have deconliction.

1:24:19 Maybe we should not invest in certain areas.

1:24:21 Maybe we shouldn't try to develop Star Wars defense, for example.

1:24:24 Maybe we should have some arms control agreements that limit, you know,

1:24:27 what we do so that it's safer." We

1:24:29 desperately need that between the Americans and the Chinese.

1:24:32 That's number one.

1:24:33 Number one.

1:24:34 Second thing we need the financial markets.

1:24:38 We all need the financial markets, right?

1:24:40 We we need we need them systemically.

1:24:42 When there's a financial crisis,

1:24:43 the whole world comes together to get out of the financial crisis.

1:24:47 And it doesn't matter if you're capitalist or communist,

1:24:49 the People's Bank of China, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England,

1:24:52 the Fed, they all work together because they are first

1:24:55 and foremost technocrats who understand that we need the markets to function.

1:25:01 You need something like that for AI.

1:25:03 in an AI stability board so that whenever there is

1:25:06 a model that creates a danger to us globally like Anthropic just

1:25:13 did last week that model is dangerous to all of us

1:25:16 globally because any software with a potential bug in it is findable

1:25:20 by that model and it can be exploited that's incredibly dangerous

1:25:23 weapon so we don't want everyone to have that so you need

1:25:27 at scale because everyone's going to develop this stuff you need an AI

1:25:30 stability board like the financial stability

1:25:32 board that is governed by technocrats,

1:25:35 by people that have an independent capacity

1:25:38 to identify threats to the systemic environment,

1:25:41 the AI environment that we need to work that can communicate

1:25:45 that to the people that have power

1:25:47 and that can immediately attack and address it.

1:25:50 Right?

1:25:51 That's the second thing we need.

1:25:52 We don't have that yet.

1:25:53 The third thing we need is we have to have an ability to fund

1:25:59 AI for people that otherwise would not be able to take advantage of it.

1:26:04 We've got half of Africa that doesn't have electricity.

1:26:08 The the gap between people with electricity

1:26:11 and people that don't have electricity

1:26:12 is going to be a hell of a lot worse when it's AI.

1:26:16 It's going to be a gap between people that act like empowered human beings,

1:26:20 hybrid individuals that have AI as a principal relationship and can deploy

1:26:24 that knowledge and people that we won't even treat as human beings

1:26:27 like a different species almost like a different species.

1:26:29 That's unacceptable.

1:26:30 We can't allow humanity to develop that way.

1:26:33 So, we have to spend the money to ensure that everyone has access.

1:26:38 We aren't close to that.

1:26:39 What about the domestic economy here in the United States or in I

1:26:42 know the UK or any of these countries that are developing the technology.

1:26:45 Same as the last point.

1:26:46 It's the exact same.

1:26:47 Okay.

1:26:47 So, you've got to also fund.

1:26:49 Yeah.

1:26:49 It can't just be global.

1:26:50 I mean, the Americans will not care about

1:26:51 this if this is like for subsaharan Africa.

1:26:53 They'll whatever, right?

1:26:54 It's them.

1:26:55 I'm saying this is something that is necessary for humanity.

1:26:58 But when I looked at our our teas going around the moon, we're looking down.

1:27:03 I don't see borders.

1:27:04 I see 8 billion people.

1:27:06 I mean, if anyone that that came down that wasn't

1:27:09 being shot up from the earth and came down,

1:27:10 anyone that came down to the earth would look

1:27:12 at us and they say, "Oh, look at this.

1:27:14 8 billion people, they don't see borders,

1:27:16 right?" And and the first thing they would learn if they

1:27:18 learned how we actually operate with our 8 billion people is,

1:27:22 "Wow, you guys, given the technology you're developing,

1:27:24 you have nowhere near adequate governance for your 8 billion people.

1:27:27 you guys are all divided into and all of these short-term decisions you're

1:27:32 making that are so inefficient and you are you're going to destroy yourselves.

1:27:36 That's what they'd say.

1:27:38 That's what they say.

1:27:38 And and and I say that as a person who is a citizen of the country that created

1:27:43 the United Nations because we understood the last

1:27:45 time we almost destroyed ourselves in a world war.

1:27:48 We can't do that anymore.

1:27:49 So we need more global governance.

1:27:53 We need more forums that bring everyone together, not that divide us apart.

1:27:56 We're not heading in that direction right now.

1:27:57 We are not heading in that direction right now.

1:28:00 Yes.

1:28:01 I mean, we're certainly heading in the opposite

1:28:02 direction in every sense of the word.

1:28:03 In the opposite direction in most senses of the word, but technologically,

1:28:08 one could imagine that we're developing the tools that will

1:28:11 help us move in that direction if we wish to.

1:28:14 There is another version of the future, isn't there?

1:28:16 Uh sometimes I question whether it's possible

1:28:19 because the human condition is so you

1:28:22 know contaminated with all of these um these sort of darker parts of ourselves.

1:28:28 But sometimes I wonder if there is like a version of the future which is utopia.

1:28:33 I don't see how there isn't.

1:28:34 I mean I don't I don't see how you allow human beings to create the kind

1:28:38 of tools that we have and not have the ability to use them for good.

1:28:42 The big stories of the world over the past 50 years,

1:28:45 my lifetime, those big stories have been about growth.

1:28:49 Those big stories have been about how human beings are living for longer

1:28:53 with better education and better healthcare and more

1:28:57 wealth and less starvation and less poverty.

1:29:00 Those have been the big stories of the last 50 years.

1:29:02 Now, you can say maybe it's a blip,

1:29:04 but actually when you look at humans history on the planet,

1:29:08 it's generally moved towards more capacity.

1:29:11 We've just had a couple of really bad episodes

1:29:15 and information spreads so quickly that we hear about

1:29:17 these bad episodes in a way that we wouldn't have otherwise.

1:29:19 It feels the algorithm serving me up what's going on 10,000 miles that way.

1:29:23 And I worry the most about that.

1:29:25 I worry the most about people getting programmed.

1:29:29 I'm not worried about artificial general intelligence.

1:29:33 I'm worried about human beings becoming more computer-like.

1:29:36 When you spend all of your time on your smartphone,

1:29:39 that is a computer programming a human being.

1:29:42 And we're acting more like the computer when we know that we're not like that.

1:29:46 We we know that we're more like who we are over the last few hours.

1:29:50 We're sitting here.

1:29:51 We're having a conversation with each other.

1:29:52 I've never met you before.

1:29:54 We know a bit about each other, but we're having a real conversation.

1:29:57 That's a humane conversation.

1:29:58 As soon as it gets intermediated by algorithms,

1:30:01 as soon as you get programmed into a lane,

1:30:03 we become much more much more inhuman.

1:30:06 And I I worry that's why I hate prediction markets.

1:30:09 The idea that we're going to instead of looking

1:30:10 at our political institutions as things that we built that serve us,

1:30:15 instead we create a casino out of them,

1:30:17 and we only care about whether we're in or out of the money.

1:30:19 That that human beings don't operate that way.

1:30:22 Companies that want to line their pockets make us work that way.

1:30:26 We're we're being forced away from being our better selves.

1:30:29 We need regulations and governance models and companies

1:30:33 that help us be more of our better selves.

1:30:35 What's interesting is as a podcaster,

1:30:36 you sit in this really interesting position where I don't have like a boss

1:30:39 or an overlord telling me who I can interview and who I can't.

1:30:41 And my team know me so well now that they would

1:30:45 never even mention the implications of me interviewing someone to me.

1:30:52 And when I say that is like they would never come to me and say,

1:30:55 "Stephen, you should you should interview Ian, but just so you know,

1:30:58 this is his politics and if you if you interview him,

1:31:00 these people might scream at you." They know me

1:31:02 so well that they would never even mention it.

1:31:04 So I say this to say that I have the opportunity to be like truly

1:31:07 independent and that means that you know last week we had Ivanka Trump on had

1:31:10 Michelle Obama Michelle Obama on then Kamala

1:31:12 Harris and Gavin Newsome and I've interviewed Men

1:31:15 Dani and it's funny when you sit in this position and you have you look

1:31:20 at your you know the list of people that want to come on the show

1:31:22 and that you've asked you know can we reach out to these people and you see

1:31:25 every name and yet you know

1:31:29 that this having a conversation because of the algorithms

1:31:34 with someone that half my audience don't agree

1:31:37 with is going to cause like real anger.

1:31:40 Real anger.

1:31:41 But like it's what what I also find to be really funny is

1:31:43 like when I meet these people in real life that half my audience hates

1:31:47 for some reason you connect with them.

1:31:49 I can see like a lot of the time they have

1:31:52 a disagreement about the path but they all agree on the destination.

1:31:55 Well, no one's a villain of their own story.

1:31:57 The one thing I would tweak of what you just said,

1:31:59 you said um because you're independent, you have the opportunity,

1:32:03 right, to to do what you want and to say

1:32:05 what you want and to interview whoever you want, handle you.

1:32:07 I think you have the obligation.

1:32:11 Yeah.

1:32:10 In this environment,

1:32:11 independence is a responsibility because there are so many people

1:32:16 that are not in your position or my position that aren't independent

1:32:19 that can be fired and they do not have the same

1:32:22 opportunity and and instead we can't be angry at those people.

1:32:26 But we have to recognize no no we we are fortunate

1:32:28 enough to be independent and if you can't be fired we

1:32:32 have an obligation to be out there and above the 50%

1:32:36 of people that are going to hate you for whatever it is.

1:32:38 Can I ask you a question then?

1:32:39 Do you think I need to say something

1:32:41 to the audience on why this is so important?

1:32:45 Of course you do.

1:32:46 I think I think you do that through your conversations

1:32:48 but I think being mindful of it is important.

1:32:51 I mean it's it's about being authentic to who you are.

1:32:54 I mean, you and I may not have exactly the same values.

1:32:56 We may not have the same priorities,

1:32:58 but but if you're being honest about yourself,

1:33:01 with your audience, about what matters,

1:33:04 you're doing that through your podcast, your conversation.

1:33:06 It's about never selling out when you do that.

1:33:08 It's about never pulling back and saying,

1:33:11 "Oh, no, that that might irritate someone,

1:33:12 so I'm not going to say it." That's not who you are.

1:33:14 You can't do that.

1:33:16 Yeah.

1:33:16 Right.

1:33:16 Because again, that's that's what mainstream media does,

1:33:18 and that's why they're in trouble.

1:33:20 I I I completely agree.

1:33:22 And I think it's funny because sometimes I

1:33:24 think that the audience might not understand that.

1:33:26 But the reality is in the real world when I go outside and I speak to people,

1:33:31 they understand that and they appreciate that.

1:33:33 It's just sometimes I think vocal minorities that that really don't

1:33:37 want to hear from someone that disagrees with them at all.

1:33:39 But I I just are they really vocal minorities or are they bots?

1:33:43 Are they algorithmically created?

1:33:46 When you and I are on the street and people come up to us,

1:33:49 it's over and it's random.

1:33:50 It's overwhelmingly friendly.

1:33:53 Maybe, you know, I I think the digital world is not really a human world.

1:33:59 And that's why it's so much more important to do more live, just get out there.

1:34:02 Also, do more long form.

1:34:03 The more that we can do to resist the algorithm,

1:34:06 the better we'll be as a planet, the better we'll be as a species.

1:34:09 I'm so in love with the idea of like talking to people

1:34:12 you disagree with or just have a difference of opinion with.

1:34:14 I'm so in love by their I remember reading a quote once that said if you have

1:34:19 the same opinion if you have the same

1:34:21 complete set of opinions as one group of people

1:34:24 those are not your opinions and I find

1:34:26 that to be really really true because I can

1:34:28 steal and take ideas and opinions that I

1:34:30 agree with from almost everybody that I speak to.

1:34:33 And this is such a strange position

1:34:34 to take in an algorithmically driven world where

1:34:36 the echo chamber will un unbelievably reinforce

1:34:40 and protect me if I just choose a side.

1:34:42 That's right.

1:34:43 And the part of my life that that resists this is that my view is

1:34:46 that if you hold the same opinions as the world is changing, you will be wrong.

1:34:51 True.

1:34:51 Yeah.

1:34:52 And but the algorithm doesn't want you to change your views.

1:34:55 Is there any closing remarks that you have

1:34:57 for for the listeners based on the journey we've been on?

1:34:59 I mean, again, I know you're based um you're Brit.

1:35:03 I live in Los Angeles as well.

1:35:04 Yeah, I know.

1:35:05 But but still, I mean, you know,

1:35:06 you got an accent and I mean, you know, you're global.

1:35:08 You four years old.

1:35:10 You bought Batswana, right?

1:35:12 that whole story.

1:35:12 Um, I mean, the fact is that you've managed to build

1:35:16 something global without promoting irresponsible lies and hatred and dislike.

1:35:24 And I don't I don't think you're bad for people, right?

1:35:26 And we need more of that.

1:35:27 Look, I mean, I I I think about when I think

1:35:30 about where power is coming from, it's not just tech companies.

1:35:34 It's also people outside of established political force.

1:35:38 When I was a kid, I was here's what we're talking about.

1:35:41 I was in second grade, I think.

1:35:43 Uh my my teacher's name was uh Miss Criticico.

1:35:45 She was she was Greek.

1:35:47 And she was asking us,

1:35:49 we were talking about um the elections and she was asking us who wanted

1:35:53 to be president and and she was talking about what it meant to be president.

1:35:57 I remember raising my hand of course and everyone's

1:36:00 talking about think how cool it would be.

1:36:01 And then all of a sudden, Ian, why why why do would you want to be president?

1:36:04 And I looked around and I realized that I

1:36:06 was the only person that had my hand up,

1:36:07 which did not make any sense to me at the time.

1:36:10 I would not have my hand up today.

1:36:11 I thought when I grew up, I really believed that like public service was

1:36:16 the ultimate expression of how you make a difference.

1:36:19 That is no longer true.

1:36:21 But it's not because our system is so broken, it's so bad.

1:36:24 It's rather that we have created all sorts of opportunities

1:36:29 for people to really make

1:36:30 a difference globally outside of political institutions.

1:36:34 And I've devoted my life to that uh professionally.

1:36:39 And I think it's incredibly important, right?

1:36:41 And maybe people don't agree with me uh all the time.

1:36:44 Obviously, that's fine.

1:36:46 But they do know that I really care about what

1:36:49 I'm doing and I'm trying to get better over time.

1:36:52 That's all we can do.

1:36:53 Um and I don't think that has to be

1:36:54 It turns out I'll go through my life and hopefully

1:36:56 I'll have a long and healthy life and I

1:36:58 don't think I'll ever have served in public office,

1:37:01 but hopefully continue to have more and more impact in a good way over time.

1:37:05 Yeah.

1:37:05 I remember I remember hearing um Neil

1:37:07 Degrass Tyson say something very similar where

1:37:09 he said the most powerful people on planet earth are no longer the elected.

1:37:13 They are those that influence the electorate because they end up going

1:37:16 to the polls and making that decision and and so it is

1:37:19 a huge amount of responsibility in such a world for people like yourself

1:37:21 who I do think do a public service and educating all of us.

1:37:24 I mean look at all these books in front of me.

1:37:26 Um unbelievable how many books you've written and how incredible they all are.

1:37:29 I don't know how you found them all but they are out there.

1:37:30 Yeah.

1:37:31 Yeah.

1:37:31 I'm going to link all of them below and I would ask my audience to take

1:37:34 a look at the variety of different I think this is the most recent one.

1:37:37 The power of the most another one coming out next year too.

1:37:40 Yeah.

1:37:40 What's the new book coming?

1:37:41 Don't have a title yet.

1:37:42 Oh, you don't have no um The power of crisis,

1:37:45 how three threats and our response will change the world.

1:37:48 And in this book, you talk more about AI as one of those threats as well,

1:37:53 but I'm going to link them all below.

1:37:54 And I highly recommend people go and follow you both on your YouTube

1:37:56 channel where you make content frequently

1:37:59 about these issues as they're evolving.

1:38:00 If you want to keep in touch with Ian's

1:38:02 perspective and also over on your ex page,

1:38:04 you've got over a million followers over on X.

1:38:06 Big audience over there.

1:38:07 We have a closing tradition on this podcast when

1:38:09 the last guest leaves a question for the next guest,

1:38:10 not knowing who they're leaving it for.

1:38:12 Okay.

1:38:11 And the question left for you is I cannot read this.

1:38:14 Okay, here we go.

1:38:16 When you are on your deathbed, how will you describe your life?

1:38:23 Unanticipated.

1:38:25 Sounds like a a good life.

1:38:27 Definitely.

1:38:28 I mean, you know, let's face it, the my optimism comes from the fact that we

1:38:33 have no idea what we did to deserve being here.

1:38:36 So, every day is kind of like it's a bit of a gift, right?

1:38:39 The more you can remember that, the more I think the better off we are.

1:38:44 Ian, thank you.

1:38:45 I really appreciate all the nice you and you.

1:38:47 Um, I've been watching you for many, many, many, many years.

1:38:49 and uh whenever the world descends into turmoil and I'm

1:38:51 looking for someone who can turn the lights on for me.

1:38:53 You're the person that I come to typically on YouTube.

1:38:55 I watch most of your stuff on there, but I also follow you on X and find

1:38:58 your takes um incredibly accessible and um demystifying,

1:39:01 which is I think exactly what we need more of at this time.

1:39:03 So, you are doing a public service even though you're not running a country.

1:39:06 Um you're helping people like me understand all of this craziness

1:39:10 and therefore um hopefully live better lives and make

1:39:13 better decisions as to who we elect and and how

1:39:15 we think about the world and how we treat one another.

1:39:17 So, thank you for doing that.

1:39:18 It's it's a great service to humanity.

1:39:19 Well, it's very motivating to hear that, frankly,

1:39:21 and uh I promise you I'll keep doing my best side.

1:39:24 Thank you.

1:39:24 YouTube have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly what video you

1:39:28 would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior.

1:39:32 And the algorithm says that this video is the perfect video for you.

1:39:36 It's different for everybody looking right now.

1:39:38 Check this video out and I bet you you might love