Joe Rogan Experience #2501 - Marc Andreessen

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0:13 All right.

0:13 Mr.

0:14 Andre.

0:14 Good to see you, sir.

0:15 Great to be back.

0:16 Thank you.

0:16 So, we were just talking about this wild

0:18 crime spree that happened this weekend in Austin.

0:21 So, it seems like it was was it teenagers that were doing this?

0:25 Yeah.

0:26 Yeah.

0:26 15 and 17.

0:27 You're not on the microphone there, fellow.

0:29 15 and 17 years old.

0:30 15 and 17 years old.

0:31 And

0:33 terrible.

0:32 What was the purpose?

0:33 Just going crazy, I think.

0:34 So, yeah, they stole cars and stole guns and switched cars and

0:38 and they shot they shot at like 10 different locations.

0:41 One person's at least one person's in critical condition.

0:44 They shot multiple people.

0:46 Yeah.

0:46 So, you were saying that the reason why they had a hard

0:49 time catching them is because of they had flock cameras in Austin,

0:53 but then they shut those cameras off for political reasons.

0:56 Correct.

0:57 Yes.

0:57 Yeah.

0:57 So, please explain that.

0:59 Yeah.

0:59 So, these guys are driving around in cars and yeah,

1:00 they're switching cars, whatever.

1:02 Yeah.

1:02 And they're and they they went to like

1:03 a dozen locations and like fight, you know,

1:04 and tried shooting shooting at buildings and people

1:06 and houses and and all kinds of stuff.

1:08 And so, okay, so these guys running around.

1:10 So, they there's this system called Flock, which is one of our companies,

1:12 and and what they do kind of like in the movies,

1:14 you you take all the municipal cameras and traffic cameras and everything,

1:16 and you feed them into an AI,

1:18 and the AI is able to first find a license plate in in real time.

1:22 So, you can you can find that, but but second,

1:24 you can actually find a car even if you don't have the license plate.

1:26 you can find like distinct markings of the car.

1:28 It'll on the car.

1:28 It'll track the car.

1:29 And so this thing is deployed.

1:30 It's this it's sold to city governments.

1:32 It's used all over the country.

1:33 Um it solves crimes every every day.

1:35 We get reports on, you know,

1:36 carjackings with kids in the back seat and their lives get saved because,

1:38 you know, they they track them down.

1:40 So a lot of a lot of lot of towns cities have this and and they love it.

1:43 In cities like Austin with the intense politics, you know,

1:46 they they run into backlash on on privacy and and um and surveillance concerns.

1:50 And so Austin had flock and then turned it off.

1:53 And as a consequence,

1:54 they were not able to find these guys for I don't know whatever several days.

1:58 Um and then what happened that the late

2:00 breaking news today is these guys drove into some

2:02 adjacent town um uh you know up against Austin

2:06 and and Flock is was live in that town.

2:08 And so Flock tagged them the minute they drove

2:10 into that that town and then they they caught the guys.

2:12 Subsequent to that, the mayor your your mayor uh in Austin

2:15 of your mayor and your chief of police gave a press conference and said,

2:18 "We really need to rethink this." Um because it's it's it's crazy to have

2:23 the ability to solve crimes and stop crimes and not be able to use it.

2:26 Yeah.

2:26 So the concern is mass surveillance, right?

2:29 And the concern is that someone's going to abuse

2:31 this and use AI for nefarious purposes, right?

2:36 Like what nefarious purposes would that be?

2:39 Yeah.

2:39 So this is a system.

2:40 This is a system that could be used in bad ways, right?

2:42 So bad people could use it in bad ways.

2:44 And so if you had a corrupt, you know, chief of police and, you know,

2:47 he had some personal entanglement thing and he

2:49 wanted to track a, you know, ex whatever,

2:51 or if the mayor wanted to, you know,

2:53 do this to terrorize her political opponents or whatever,

2:55 like if you had, you know, corrupt city officials,

2:58 then they could use it for bad things.

2:59 But

3:00 wouldn't that be traceable though?

3:01 Like wouldn't that like isn't there like a blockchain?

3:04 Put that sucker so it's not on your chin.

3:06 Push it forward a little bit.

3:07 Yeah.

3:08 Is is there a blockchain for flock so you could know

3:11 who's doing what and how it's happening so someone couldn't abuse it?

3:15 Is it possible to have circumvent that?

3:17 Yeah, it could.

3:17 But well, this is like the standard.

3:19 Yes.

3:19 And this, you know, they log everything and you know,

3:21 I'm sure there's records of everything,

3:22 but but you know, look, it's like anything else.

3:24 It's, you know, it's why it's why cops have

3:25 to get a warrant before they search somebody's house, right?

3:27 You there's always the question of like what is the legal

3:29 authority and what are the safeguards that protect this kind of thing.

3:33 But but to take so I think there's a completely

3:35 legitimate question which is how how should that all be designed?

3:38 What should be the controls?

3:39 What should be the penalties if somebody abuses it?

3:42 Um you know but there's all that but then on the other side

3:45 of it is like are you really going to give up the entire thing right

3:48 and and disarm disarm yourself in the face in face

3:50 of what's been a big national crime wave for a long time.

3:52 So the other thing is so the city

3:53 of Chicago is the one that's pushed this even further.

3:56 Um so there's an older system that's

3:58 deployed in many cities called Shot Spotter.

4:00 Um uh what's it called?

4:02 It's called shot spotter.

4:03 Shot spotter.

4:04 Shot spotter.

4:06 Shot spotter.

4:07 Oh, shot spotter.

4:08 Like spot someone shooting.

4:10 Spot somebody shooting.

4:11 Um, sounds very German.

4:14 Shot spotter.

4:15 It sounds very like several

4:18 very Nazi several lots.

4:22 Yeah.

4:22 On top.

4:22 So, shot spotter is an older system that works very well.

4:24 It's deployed in many cities.

4:26 And what it is, totally different system.

4:27 What it is is they put these these precision microphones

4:30 on top of rooftops all over the city and then when

4:32 a gunshot goes off they're able to instantly triangulate that a gunshot

4:35 has gone off and specifically where the gunshot went off.

4:38 This has two two big benefits.

4:40 Uh benefit number one is um you have a better chance

4:43 of catching the perpetrator because you can instantly respond to the gunshot.

4:45 You don't have to wait for somebody to call it in or if if somebody calls it in.

4:49 Number two, if somebody's been shot and they're bleeding in the street,

4:52 you can immediately roll the ambulance to location

4:54 and you can you can you can save lives.

4:56 And so it's historically it's considered a double win.

4:59 Chicago got so wrapped up on these political issues that they also not only

5:02 did they not have flock they also

5:03 turned off their shot spotter system voluntarily.

5:07 Um and so people now get shot in Chicago and they

5:09 bleed out on the street and nobody knows and nobody cares.

5:12 And what is the argument that they make uh that that that it is um the so

5:18 the so I would say there there's maybe two argument.

5:21 is the civil libertarian argument um which is all around surveillance and abuse

5:25 and control and you know all these things and like I say I think that's

5:28 a very legitimate argument and then I would say there's like the woke the woke

5:30 argument right which is that the the argument

5:33 goes the American criminal justice system is clearly biased in favor of some

5:37 demographic groups and against other demographic groups

5:39 and if you have automated systems like Shot Spotter or Flock or by the same

5:44 thing comes up with like traffic cameras

5:45 that automatically give out uh speeding tickets

5:48 um that that those will disproportionately affect

5:50 disadvantaged people in society and disadvantaged groups.

5:52 Um and so therefore they are racist.

5:55 Uh they they are racist technologies enforcing a racist system.

5:58 Um boy, the problem with that the problem with that argument is the victims um

6:03 of violent crime are disproportionately also likely

6:05 to be from those same disadvantaged groups.

6:08 Um and so woke politics are really fun.

6:12 Yes.

6:12 The the the other problem with a lot of this is

6:15 there's a a large chunk of people that are going to immediately

6:20 think that even this mass shooting was organized by Flock so

6:25 that Flock could get reinstated in Austin to bring in the surveillance state.

6:31 Like this I guarantee you 100% there's a group

6:34 of people listening to this right now saying,

6:36 "Oh, Andre's a shill.

6:38 Rogan's shilling for flock.

6:40 This is what they're doing.

6:41 They're trying to get the mass surveillance.

6:43 You know, this is automatically when um there's

6:48 a situation like this, any kind of a mass shooting,

6:50 people think it's a false flag.

6:52 This is uh this is where we're at.

6:54 How Chicago organizers managed to rid the city of Shot Spotter.

6:58 Controversial police surveillance tech is often inaccurate,

7:01 according to research that allowed activists to launch a fact-based

7:04 campaign and a political model for organizers in other cities.

7:08 Aha.

7:09 So, they're saying it's inaccurate.

7:10 So what it is and be fair to what

7:12 it is what it is it's directional microphones, right?

7:14 And so it shot goes off, it triangulates on a on a location.

7:17 It's you know and look it's going to I

7:19 it's also bouncing off buildings, right?

7:20 So there's a lot of echo and

7:22 I'm Yeah, I'm sure you get Yeah, I'm sure I'm sure you get that effect.

7:25 Nevertheless, but at least you know when a shot went off a shot went off.

7:28 It went off in this general area.

7:29 I would assume we're not involved in the shot spotter.

7:31 I don't know for sure.

7:32 I would assume at this point it's probably down to like it's probably pretty

7:34 accurate at the at the at the level of a block at a street.

7:36 Um it's probably generally quite accurate beyond that.

7:40 But right.

7:40 So exactly right.

7:41 I mean I think exactly what you said which is like okay

7:43 at least you know a shot went off and if

7:45 you had both of those things flock and shot

7:48 spotter uh over 88.72% of incidents flagged by shot

7:53 spotter ended with police finding no incidents of gun crime.

7:57 Okay.

7:57 But think right.

7:59 But that doesn't mean the gunshots didn't go off.

8:01 Exactly.

8:01 That doesn't mean anything.

8:02 The rarely produce evidence of a gun related crime.

8:06 That also doesn't mean anything cuz it just shows that a gun went off.

8:09 If you have, first of all, Chicago is one of the absolute worst places

8:15 in the country in terms of gun violence.

8:17 Correct.

8:18 I mean, there's constant shootings going on in Chicago

8:21 and an enormous death death every weekend.

8:22 An enormous death toll

8:24 and people are very accustomed to guns going off.

8:27 Not only that, people are very accustomed to shooting guns.

8:30 If if people are accustomed to guns going off,

8:32 that must mean that people are shooting those guns

8:34 and they're getting very custom accustomed to doing that.

8:37 So then you've got people that shoot people and then get

8:40 in a car and drive away and then the cops come, there's no evidence.

8:44 That means nothing.

8:46 One of the things that we've learned uh

8:48 when you deal with uh politicians in particular

8:51 that want to talk about crime statistics like

8:54 crime is down incorrect crime reporting is down.

9:00 We have this

9:01 and especially in Los Angeles,

9:02 my friends in Los Angeles who still live there who

9:06 deal with breakins and home invasions and cars being robbed.

9:11 They read those statistics or they hear a politician saying that crime is down.

9:15 They're like, "What the are you talking about?" No,

9:18 no one calls 911 because if you do, you just get put on hold.

9:23 It lasts forever.

9:24 No one comes.

9:25 They do come.

9:26 It's hours late.

9:27 No one's coming to save you.

9:28 No one calls.

9:29 They just accept it.

9:32 Y San Francisco is the worst.

9:33 People leave their car doors open.

9:35 They leave the hatch open on their cars

9:38 to let you know there's nothing in there.

9:40 Please don't break my windows.

9:43 My car is here.

9:44 Oh, crime is down.

9:45 Yep.

9:45 No, it's not down.

9:46 Yep.

9:47 No.

9:47 Crime is more prevalent than ever before.

9:50 It's just crime reporting is useless.

9:53 Yeah.

9:53 Well, yeah.

9:54 Look, if you if you know that you're not going

9:56 to get you you back up from what happens in the system.

9:58 If you know the criminals aren't going to get convicted,

10:00 then you know they're not going to get prosecuted.

10:01 If they're not going to get prosecuted, they're not going to get arrested.

10:03 If they're not getting arrested, they're not going to get investigated.

10:05 Yeah.

10:05 And this this I mean I I live I

10:07 live halftime near San Francisco and halftime in LA.

10:10 Oh boy.

10:10 I I I I I'm is 100% true.

10:15 But the other scandal, by the way, just as uh kind of also came out,

10:18 I think last week was um Washington DC has been

10:21 they got caught the police got caught faking the crime statistics.

10:23 Yes.

10:24 Just like this is very important.

10:25 Yeah.

10:25 Just like overtly up to senior levels of the of the Washington

10:28 DC police department and a whole bunch of people got, you know, fired, indicted.

10:31 Right.

10:31 This is very recent.

10:32 And just Yeah.

10:33 And just like flat out fake faking the numbers and and it's like anything.

10:35 It's like it's like anything else which is if if you

10:38 there's an old thing which is if if if you measure it,

10:40 it's no longer a good incentive.

10:41 It's no longer good motivation because it's just

10:43 the the it's like grade inflation in school.

10:44 It's just the temptation is so high to monkey with the numbers.

10:48 Yeah.

10:48 Um and so in Washington at least

10:49 they were criminally monkeying with the numbers.

10:52 It raises the question of whether that's happening in these other cities.

10:55 Well, also Washington,

10:56 didn't the mayor actually thank Trump for bringing

10:59 in the National Guard, which is crazy.

11:01 You have a Democrat mayor who said thank

11:04 you to Donald Trump for bringing in the National,

11:06 which everybody thought was an outrage.

11:08 Oh my god, you're bringing the National Guard into the cities.

11:10 You're going to militarize the police force.

11:11 Yeah,

11:12 she said thank you because crime dropped off a cliff.

11:15 So I've also been spending a lot of time in DC.

11:16 So what was happening in DC?

11:17 So my friends in DC basically say they

11:19 turned the city from a place where you couldn't

11:20 be outside at night to all of a sudden you can just walk around and it's fine.

11:23 And then what happened is like the violence basically went

11:25 to zero like in in most of the neighborhoods like extremely quickly.

11:27 And so what happened was you have all

11:28 these people walking around at night for the first

11:30 time in years and you know they're just

11:32 like oh there's a couple guys the National Guard.

11:33 This is great.

11:34 Go over take a picture with them.

11:35 This is fantastic.

11:36 Okay.

11:36 Okay.

11:36 So then it gets reported as it gets reported

11:39 in the press as the National Guard is not doing anything.

11:41 All they're doing is sitting around taking,

11:42 you know, selfies selfies with tourists.

11:45 You know, God, I hate the press.

11:47 You know, they they don't need to be here.

11:48 They're not doing anything, right?

11:49 Um why would someone report that?

11:51 But can't we just come to an agreement that crime is bad?

11:54 Yes.

11:55 Regardless of political party, can't we agree that we all want to be safe?

11:59 One more thing.

11:59 Well, let me give you one more.

12:00 I'll give you one more thing and we we move off this.

12:02 So the the other thing you know you mentioned is yeah drive

12:05 by shootings the guy drives away you there's no evidence of the crime.

12:07 The other thing if you talk to cops if you talk to cops who work in high

12:10 crime areas or people who live in high crime areas which I have in both cases

12:13 um a lot of people in high crime areas do not want to ever talk

12:15 to the cops about things that have happened because

12:17 if it's gang violence there's the very active threat

12:20 100%.

12:20 Snitches don't get stitches they get morgs

12:24 100%.

12:24 And so if if you if you can't if

12:26 if you're relying on eyewitness reports you don't solve crimes right?

12:30 And so you need objective data.

12:31 So, if you're a criminal, it's pretty awesome environment.

12:34 It's great.

12:34 And and by the way, LA, I was say again,

12:36 not to not like LA has been absolute ground zero for this kind of behavior.

12:40 I mean, the gangs in LA have been going wild for the last 5 years,

12:42 just like completely unconstrained.

12:44 I mean, it's been it's been crazy.

12:45 I just don't understand why anybody would want that.

12:48 Y I Do you ever put your tinfoil hat on and going,

12:52 what what are they trying to do here?

12:54 So, the the the the Cuz I know you wear a tin foil hat every now and then.

12:57 We talked about nuclear bombs.

12:59 We did.

12:59 We did.

13:00 We did.

13:00 Faking.

13:00 Faking.

13:01 Yes, exactly.

13:01 The the the now well-known fact that all

13:03 the the nuclear test sites got got faked.

13:05 Um,

13:06 so I mean, look, I don't think they got faked.

13:08 I I know you're Well, you're you're a believer in the official story.

13:10 Uh, you know, a little bit.

13:12 Yeah.

13:12 Yeah.

13:12 Yeah.

13:12 Yeah.

13:13 You believe what Wikipedia says.

13:14 So, um, you know, you're famous for.

13:18 So, um, so, uh, I look,

13:21 the one wonders if there's a political motivation, right,

13:24 which is basically to get the responsible people out of the city,

13:27 uh, to be able to change the voting patterns, right?

13:29 Um and so if God that's so insidious.

13:32 Yeah.

13:32 And so you you wonder you know Yeah.

13:35 You look at these programs over time and kind of as as the you

13:38 know the populations of the major cities have shifted like

13:40 radically over the last 50 years like they they they have very

13:42 little in common with the population distributions they had 50 years ago.

13:45 And so you wonder how much of it is massaging the voter base.

13:48 God, that's so crazy to think that people

13:50 would be willing to sacrifice the safety

13:52 of their residents that are bringing in the majority

13:55 of the tax revenue, by the way, so that they could somehow or another make

14:00 it so that they could stay in power forever.

14:02 I mean, and then get money out presumably from the state, right?

14:05 Like which is how New York City got bailed out.

14:08 Yeah.

14:08 Which is a hilarious story.

14:10 They balanced the budget, right?

14:12 Oh, congratulations.

14:13 Mom Donniey's a genius.

14:14 He figured it out.

14:15 Socialism works.

14:16 So you balance the budget and then you realize they got

14:18 $4 billion from the state so they could balance that budget.

14:22 So all these folks that are living in small towns with no crime

14:26 and living in rural like West New York and like they had to pay.

14:31 Yep.

14:31 100%.

14:31 And then by the way the states get bailed out right by the feds federally.

14:36 Right.

14:36 So fun.

14:37 It is very fun.

14:38 So, so I just came from New York and so New

14:40 York has their own version of this now with their new mayor.

14:42 And the big controversy there last week was their mayor did a video

14:46 standing in front of somebody's home.

14:48 Yes.

14:48 Calling him out by name.

14:49 Ken Griffin.

14:49 Ken Griffin, who's uh a very wealthy guy who brings a lot of jobs

14:54 to New York City and was in the middle of a huge project.

14:57 It's a $6 billion project and now he's considering tanking it.

15:01 Yeah, he's yeah, he's he's he's I think he

15:03 spoke last week at a conference and you know,

15:04 all but said he's he's he's going to he

15:06 didn't say he's going to pull entirely out,

15:07 but he said he's going to move much more of the of the business to Florida.

15:10 But the other significance Ken Ken who I know Ken is a major philanthropist.

15:13 Ken has donated hundreds of millions of dollars

15:15 particularly to healthcare in New York City on top

15:17 of being a major taxpayer and source of tax

15:19 revenue on top of being a major employer.

15:21 And so the new mayor has deliberately targeted

15:23 him personally um to try to force him out.

15:28 Why?

15:29 Yeah.

15:29 Do you think that's the ca that that's why he's doing it or do you think

15:32 he's doing it because that appeals to his base

15:34 because there's these eat the rich people?

15:37 But it's kind of the same.

15:38 It's it's what I'm saying like I would I give people the benefit of the doubt.

15:42 I I would assume they believe everything they say

15:44 and they feel very strongly about it.

15:45 I would believe that they also have a political incentive.

15:47 Um because it right if you get if you get if you

15:50 get somebody who's going to oppose you out of the city that's good.

15:53 Um the top 1% of New York aren't they responsible for 50% of the tax base?

15:58 Yeah.

15:59 on that on that order.

15:59 Yeah, something also roughly also roughly the case in in Cal in in California

16:03 in the year 2000 1,000 individuals were 50% of the tax revenue.

16:08 Um was was the all-time peak,

16:09 but I think it's roughly 1% of the taxpayers are 50% of the tax receipts.

16:13 And so one could imagine a position that says,

16:15 "Wow, we want these businesses to work.

16:17 We want to generate all the tax revenue and we

16:18 want to pay for all the all the programs."

16:21 Yeah.

16:21 One could also imagine a somewhat more let's say yolo

16:23 approach um which is to drive out the revenue and Yeah.

16:26 and then and then you know presumably accounted bailouts.

16:29 I just don't understand.

16:31 Well, I guess people that are not playing a long game.

16:35 They're only thinking of their own political careers

16:38 and staying in power that they wouldn't care.

16:42 Yeah, I think there's that.

16:42 And then I think you just I mean obviously there's a lot of opportunism.

16:45 And then the other thing is I think you just you have a lot of people you

16:47 have a lot of people you know a lot

16:48 of people in politics have not run a business.

16:50 They haven't made a payroll.

16:51 They haven't right

16:52 they don't have any

16:54 what we would consider to be real world experience and so

16:57 the the idea of business is somewhat alien to a lot of these people.

17:00 I I mean I I'm not a businessman although I kind of am.

17:04 I kind of am in some weird way.

17:06 I become a businessman.

17:07 Um, but this idea that it's easy

17:12 to become a billionaire and that these billionaires somehow

17:14 or another are the problem because they're not paying

17:17 their fair share is so weird that that is

17:21 that that's a narrative that actually gets pushed

17:23 through when you look at the actual numbers of the tax base and how much they

17:26 contribute and how many jobs they provide and yeah,

17:29 they make more money than everybody else, right?

17:32 You could do that too.

17:33 It's like this is one of the things that America is really good at.

17:38 You can come from nothing and become incredibly

17:41 wealthy if you figure something out and go

17:44 and we just assume that everybody who

17:46 makes an incredible amount of money stole it, right?

17:49 That they robbed someone that someone the only like this is

17:52 a narrative that gets pushed along

17:54 democratic socialists that no one achieves that.

17:58 I think I literally heard AOC say this recently that no

18:01 one achieves substantial wealth without

18:05 somehow or another victimizing other people.

18:07 Yeah.

18:08 And then Jeff Jeff Bezos is the obvious

18:09 counter example which is like every time you do

18:11 the one click and the thing gets delivered

18:12 to you two hours later at the cheapest possible price

18:15 saving saving you and your family a lot of time and money

18:18 but at the expense of small mom and pop stores allegedly

18:22 although although a lot of them sell on sell on Amazon.

18:24 A lot of small businesses sell on Amazon.

18:26 Um, no look 100%.

18:27 The the other thing you can do is

18:28 you can compare and contrast to other countries

18:30 that have more draconian policies in the direction

18:32 that those folks are are are are suggesting.

18:34 And so Europe in particular, you know,

18:36 many European countries have a much more draconian, you know,

18:40 much even more hostile uh to to to business

18:42 and the result is they are much poorer.

18:45 You know, their their slower growth are actually shrinking.

18:47 Um, the people there are much less welloff.

18:49 There's much less funding for social programs.

18:50 And so you can also do the cross, you know,

18:52 the cross country comparison and which I think kind of gives up the game.

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20:18 Well, that's the weird thing about the whole socialism thing

20:21 is that it's never worked ever and they just go,

20:24 "Well, it hasn't been done right." Yes, maybe it will work for us.

20:27 But it's it's crazy that that works.

20:29 And I I get Is that a failing of our education system?

20:32 Is that a failing of the media explaining

20:35 things to people in a way that makes sense?

20:39 Or is it just that people feel so helpless that they're making, you know,

20:44 uh just enough barely to get by and they're living check to check and they

20:47 see these people in yachts and they see

20:49 these people in private jets and they say,

20:51 "They must have stolen this.

20:52 this is impossible to achieve this kind of wealth.

20:55 Somehow or another, the system is wrong.

20:57 Wealth inequality.

21:00 Yeah.

21:00 So, I think there's two there's two moral definitions of fairness.

21:04 Um there's a definition of fairness,

21:06 which is you get out of something what you put into it, right?

21:10 Proportional.

21:10 If I work twice as hard as you do, I get twice as much.

21:13 And by the way, that could be, you know,

21:14 if we're in a race together and, you know,

21:16 I run twice as far, I get to eat twice as much,

21:18 you know, pie at the end of the race.

21:19 Like, anything like that.

21:20 I put in more effort, I get more results.

21:21 The other version of fairness is uh everybody gets an equal slice.

21:25 Yeah.

21:26 The equality of outcome.

21:27 And those both feel right those both feel correct

21:31 like there's something I think in our wiring right

21:33 in our brain wiring where those both feel like they're

21:35 morally correct but they are in direct conflict with each other.

21:38 Um, and it's like and you so when

21:41 I when I really have this conversation, you know,

21:43 it's got to kind of lay those two ideas out on the table and kind of say,

21:45 okay, you know, pick one, right?

21:47 And again, it's not like it's not like, you know, then the caricature is, well,

21:50 somebody's arguing then for like under strain libertarianism, whatever.

21:53 And it's like, no, like we we're these are all social democracies.

21:55 Like we're going to live in social democracies forever.

21:57 There's always going to be a progressive tax system.

21:59 There's always you have to have you have to have

22:01 business success in order to fund all the social programs.

22:03 That then that makes sense.

22:04 And really, very few people argue against that anymore, right?

22:07 It does make sense, right?

22:08 It does make sense.

22:09 But but there is this fundamental question

22:10 underneath that which is the the level

22:12 of degree to which you buy into that first definition of fairness.

22:14 What you put in is what you get out versus

22:16 that second definition which is everybody gets the same amount.

22:18 Well, the problem with the equality of outcome

22:20 is it's not an equality of effort.

22:22 Right.

22:23 That's right.

22:23 And this is the beautiful thing about America is that you really can just work

22:28 20 hours a day and achieve something spectacular.

22:32 And the idea that you working 20 hours a day like a maniac,

22:36 literally wasting your health away,

22:39 right?

22:39 That you should get the exact same amount of money as someone who barely works,

22:44 right?

22:43 Just kind of shows up, does the bare minimum, leaves 5 minutes early,

22:47 and that this person should achieve the same result as you.

22:50 That's crazy.

22:51 Yeah.

22:51 Well, I mean, it's it's it's sort of like

22:52 anybody who's ever the teachers say one thing.

22:54 Anybody's ever been in a class project with other students.

22:58 Yes.

22:58 You immediately observe Yes.

23:00 There are certain people who stand up and like lead the way.

23:02 And there are certain people that like sit back and free ride, right?

23:04 There's no there's no uh there's no old old

23:06 story when after after the Soviet Union collapsed, you know,

23:08 reporters went in and try to, you know,

23:10 figure out what what it happened and they interviewed somebody,

23:11 you know, about like what it was like to work at a socialist, you know,

23:13 socialist factory and the line that the guy the guy said was,

23:16 "Oh, well, we pretended to work and they pretended to pay us." Right.

23:21 Right.

23:21 If if you're getting the thing

23:23 regardless of because everybody's guaranteed equal outcomes.

23:25 If you're getting the thing regardless, then you kill motivation.

23:27 And motivation is everything for people achieving things.

23:32 No one achieves anything spectacular without

23:35 some sort of motivation that's going

23:37 to get them a result that's a reward for all their hard effort.

23:41 If you really thought you were just working for the sake of the people,

23:44 like no one's doing that.

23:46 That's not that's not human nature.

23:48 And this is the problem with the concept of socialism

23:50 is that it punishes high achievers and it rewards laziness.

23:55 And that's not to say that everyone who's poor is lazy.

23:58 That's right.

23:59 And there's a lot of people that are

24:02 poor because of circumstances beyond their control.

24:05 They're poor because of all sorts of conditions that they really had no say in.

24:11 It's like bunch of things happened to them.

24:13 But the the game is there's an opportunity if you figure

24:18 it out to get out of that situation in this world.

24:21 And you can get out of that situation.

24:22 There's so many stories, these rags to riches stories,

24:26 which is you don't get that in a cast system, right?

24:29 You don't get that in socialism.

24:30 You don't get that.

24:31 There's a lot of places where that doesn't happen.

24:33 In America, that that is still a possibility.

24:37 Yeah.

24:37 That's right.

24:37 That's right.

24:38 And the more you punish that, you're actually

24:40 punishing the the real concept of the American dream.

24:43 Now, I'm not saying that you should work 20 hours a day and become

24:47 a so sociopath and get on Aderall and just only try to achieve financial wealth.

24:53 And there are people like that.

24:54 You know them, right?

24:55 Of course, I'm sure you travel in those circles.

24:58 But you get lumped into those people even though

25:00 you're not that person at all because you're extremely wealthy.

25:03 I I cap it at 18 hours a day.

25:05 Yeah.

25:06 Cap at 18.

25:06 18.

25:07 Yeah.

25:07 Is that really what you work?

25:08 Do you really work 18 hours a day?

25:09 No, I don't.

25:10 I don't.

25:10 I don't.

25:10 That's not That's not Yes.

25:11 No, not quite.

25:12 But But you have to work a lot.

25:13 You work a lot.

25:14 You work a lot.

25:14 You work a lot.

25:15 How many businesses are you involved in?

25:17 A lot.

25:17 At any given time.

25:18 I mean, the fir our firm, you know, it's over a thousand.

25:21 Um, so yes.

25:25 God, something tells me you you would not enjoy that as much.

25:27 Um.

25:28 Uh, no.

25:29 I I I wake up every day going, should I be doing less?

25:35 Yes, that's what I do.

25:36 Yeah.

25:36 Yeah.

25:36 But I I have a lot of recreational things that

25:40 that I'm obsessed with that don't pay me any money that I really enjoy.

25:44 Yes.

25:43 So, I'm always like, maybe I should just do that.

25:47 Yeah.

25:46 You know, but the point is choice, freedom.

25:50 You should be able to do whatever you want.

25:51 And if you want to be some psycho that works

25:53 18 hours a day and makes an insane amount of money.

25:58 Yeah.

25:58 The benefit of that to the tax base is massive.

26:01 Yeah.

26:01 Yeah.

26:01 Yeah.

26:01 The societies that don't have that are much poorer.

26:04 Everybody's poorer.

26:05 There are entire European I probably shouldn't name.

26:07 There are entire European countries where they rank below our 50th ranked state.

26:12 Yes.

26:13 That we consider to be fully developed.

26:14 I was going to bring that up.

26:15 Modern countries.

26:16 Yeah.

26:16 Like Mississippi.

26:17 Yeah.

26:17 And their per capita income is lower than all 50 of our states.

26:21 Right.

26:22 And it's hard even it's like congratulations.

26:25 Like is is that going is that going well?

26:28 Are you happy with the outcome?

26:29 And you know, you have that convers I had those conversations

26:31 with the folks over there and they they literally the conclusion generally is,

26:34 well, we need to do more of the things that resulted in that outcome.

26:36 My buddy Ari Maddie, hilarious comedian, he's from Estonia and he has friends

26:41 in Estonia that have university degrees that choose

26:45 to work in shoe sales because if you make more than $60,000 a year,

26:50 your taxes are so high,

26:52 it actually benefits you to make less money.

26:55 Yeah.

26:55 And so they just give up.

26:56 Yeah.

26:56 They nail you and they just exist.

26:58 and that's why he fled and why he came to America.

27:02 So those are the type of people that are the least

27:06 accepting of any kind of socialism.

27:08 They're they're the least charitable when people start talking about socialism.

27:11 Talk talk to socialism about someone who fled Venezuela.

27:14 That's right.

27:14 You know, or Cuba, they they'll stab you, you know,

27:17 they get they get angry and crazy because they know what the consequences are,

27:20 the real world consequences are.

27:22 And it's also one of the beautiful things about America.

27:24 You can have these utopian ideas of the world and you could

27:28 get on college campuses and rant and rave and no one arrests you.

27:31 Yeah.

27:31 Yep.

27:31 100%.

27:34 Yeah.

27:33 Um yeah, I would say look I we are in a time

27:35 in which this kind of what you might call radical socialist politics is back.

27:39 Like so this is going to be a big thing.

27:40 It's I say it's be a big thing in the 28 election.

27:42 It's going to be a big thing in the midterms.

27:43 It's going to be a big thing.

27:44 You know a lot of these cities and states, you know,

27:46 some of these new you know this new mayor of Seattle is very radical.

27:49 New mayor of New York City very radical.

27:51 The new mayor of Seattle's hilarious.

27:52 He's very radical.

27:53 It's kind of hilarious.

27:54 She lived with her parents.

27:56 Yes.

27:56 Her parents supported her.

27:57 She's in her 40s.

27:58 Never had a real job.

27:59 And uh now she's running what how many what

28:01 how many billions of dollars is the economy of Seattle?

28:05 Yes.

28:05 A lot.

28:05 A lot.

28:06 It's it's a huge and her response Yes.

28:08 to rich people leaving.

28:10 Well, bye

28:12 bye.

28:11 Like okay.

28:13 Now, having said that, I have enormous faith in the American people.

28:16 And I think that the American people do not ultimately want this.

28:19 Um and historically, when the American people have been given this choice,

28:22 they haven't they haven't taken it.

28:23 I think they have to see the results, right?

28:25 They have to see it fall apart.

28:26 But the problem is once things fall apart,

28:28 it takes so much longer to bring them back than it does for them to fall apart.

28:33 Like Los Angeles, for instance, Los Angeles,

28:35 like you said, fell apart in like 5 years.

28:37 Yeah.

28:37 I mean, for me, it was leaving in 2020.

28:41 I was like, I saw the writing on the wall.

28:43 I'm like, I see where this is going

28:45 and I know that things don't get better quick, if they get better at all.

28:49 This is not going to get better.

28:50 This is going to get worse.

28:52 And uh that's it's headed in that direction.

28:54 And if someone came in with sweeping change and pulled

28:58 up all the encampments and cleaned up all the streets

29:01 and made things safe again and actually started prosecuting

29:03 crime and it would take so long to fix it.

29:08 Yeah.

29:08 Yeah.

29:08 But you know, you get we'll see what happens

29:10 with So the new I will say this, the new DA,

29:12 the new district attorney in LA is much better prosecuting crimes.

29:15 Um and then Mr.

29:17 Spencer Pratt.

29:18 Is that how you go you have your tips on?

29:20 H I would just say like his sudden rise um is has to be considered a miracle.

29:26 Um it's kind of fun.

29:28 It's incredible to watch.

29:30 He is doing such a great job

29:32 and he's got really good ideas and people

29:33 are saying what who is this reality star?

29:36 Why should he like what about the other people?

29:40 What about them?

29:40 What is so great about their ability to lead that makes you think that they're

29:44 going to be extraordinary choices above

29:45 and beyond what Spencer Pratt's capable of doing?

29:48 What are you talking about?

29:49 I I live, you know, we have a home down

29:50 there and we we we fortunately didn't lose our home,

29:52 but we, you know, we were we were it was it was nerve-wracking for a while.

29:54 And I, you know, I think everybody knows this now,

29:56 but the city response was abysmal to non-existent.

29:59 The state response was terrible.

30:01 Um, and by the way, none of that has been fixed as far as I know.

30:04 Like it's we're we're set up for that fire, you know.

30:06 So, the the the fire, what is it year ago?

30:09 A little more than a year ago,

30:10 took out uh twice the square mileage of the Nagasaki bomb.

30:13 um obliterated.

30:16 If you've seen like photos, it it destroyed Pacific Palisades.

30:19 It looks like a bomb hit like the cars were melted into the pavement.

30:23 Yeah.

30:23 It was gone.

30:24 Um and then Altadena,

30:25 which is like a working-class neighborhood and and and then it,

30:28 you know, took out like half of Malibu.

30:29 And so, uh like it was like and it almost took out all of West LA.

30:33 Like it came very close to jumping the freeways

30:34 and just taking out like Beverly Hills, Bair, Santa Monica.

30:38 Like it was all in the line of fire.

30:39 I don't think any of that's been fixed.

30:40 I don't think there's any plan to fix any of it.

30:42 Um, and so yeah, Spencer, you know, Spencer has been through this the hard way

30:45 along with a lot of people in the city,

30:46 which is his, you know, they burned his house down.

30:49 Um, and

30:50 what is the response when Karen Bass is questioned about what

30:53 are you going to do if this happens in the future?

30:55 You know, everything is everything is remember the Lego movie?

30:58 Remember the song Everything is Wonderful.

31:01 Yeah.

31:00 Yeah.

31:00 Everything is wonderful.

31:01 Everything is amazing.

31:03 Um, there's a viral AI video which is Spencer Fr,

31:06 one of his fans made, which is it's everything is awful.

31:09 Um, and it's LA.

31:10 It's it's a it's like the Lego movie set in LA.

31:12 It's with like Lego junkies bleeding out of the street.

31:15 Oh, his AI videos have been amazing.

31:17 The Lego cities on fire.

31:18 And so I I I think there's just there's just an advanced level of denial.

31:22 Um I mean it just I think I don't know if it came out today.

31:24 I just saw the report today, but apparently the head of the LA water department,

31:27 you know, is a super high paid, you know, person.

31:29 And apparently she apparently according to the information

31:31 was unaware that the key reservoir was not full.

31:34 Didn't have water in it.

31:36 Do you know that?

31:36 So the fire hydrants didn't have water in them,

31:40 right?

31:40 So the the police the the the fire trucks would pull up

31:43 and they would plug in and there would be no water coming out.

31:45 I mean so it's it's a level of dereliction that is cosmic and to your point

31:50 Spencer is articulating that in a way

31:52 that shockingly no nobody else has been able to.

31:55 There's also talk about the Palisades about them selling

32:00 the land about acquiring the land selling the land.

32:03 Like what is going on with that?

32:04 It's nuts.

32:05 So I I don't know all the details.

32:06 I do know right out of the gate uh there was a state ban on quote unquote

32:11 predatory uh land sales uh so predatory offers um

32:14 and so there was a ban the state put

32:16 in place a ban on anybody making an offer on the land at less than the last

32:18 appraised value uh which included the value of the house

32:21 on the land and so they they chilled

32:24 the because a lot a lot of property owners so you lose your house in LA okay

32:27 so you lose your house in LA by the way it's been almost impossible and I think

32:30 for a lot of people actually impossible to get

32:31 fire insurance in LA for years because of because

32:33 of all these issues because the insurance companies aren't

32:35 stupid they don't want to left holding the bag,

32:37 right?

32:37 Um and so there's a lot of people whose

32:38 houses burned down and their first thought was screw it.

32:40 I'm out of here, right?

32:41 I'm just going to like sell I'm going to sell the land.

32:43 I'm going to go some someplace sane.

32:45 Um and and then all of a sudden the state moved in and basically

32:48 said you can't you can't they didn't say you can't sell your house.

32:50 They said people can't bid on your house

32:52 at your now destroyed house below it its previous value.

32:54 So the previous value,

32:56 so if you had a $10 million mansion on a lot in the Palisades

33:00 and it's worth $15 million while it was there and you say,

33:05 "I'll sell it to you for five." You can't do that.

33:07 Uh you can sell it.

33:08 You the prohibition was on offers.

33:13 What the prohibition was I don't know the exact I remember the exact details.

33:15 the prohibition was.

33:16 So because all immediately immediately there were people,

33:19 you know, say speculators, right,

33:22 investors, right, who immediately came in and they're like,

33:23 "Oh, this is this is, you know, prime land." And, you know,

33:26 surely at some point the city will be governed rationally.

33:28 So we're we're going to we're going to buy up all these lots.

33:30 We're going to build new houses and we'll make money.

33:31 And so the state immediately stepped in to make sure

33:33 that that didn't happen by by by by preventing the the the offers.

33:37 Um, that's one.

33:38 Step two is it was almost impossible

33:40 to get a permit to build anything before this.

33:42 It's certainly harder now.

33:44 How many houses have been rebuilt?

33:46 Oh, I I mean it rounds to zero effectively.

33:48 None.

33:49 I mean it this is we're talking I don't know up to 15 years.

33:54 Um maybe for the rebuild maybe.

33:58 U and and by the way maybe never in a lot of places.

34:00 15 years for individual homes or 15 years for all the homes?

34:03 Oh 15 years.

34:04 15 years all in.

34:06 Um like I I haven't seen any prediction that's less than 15 years to re

34:09 to to to rebuild everything because any individual

34:11 home could be I don't know 5 years, eight years, 10 years.

34:14 Um why so long?

34:16 Because it was almost it's almost impossible these these cities almost never

34:20 it's almost impossible to get permits to do anything in these cities,

34:22 you know, on a good day.

34:24 They don't they don't let you do they don't let you build things.

34:28 Why?

34:27 Because of the the the local pol

34:29 the local politics of not ever changing anything.

34:32 um and not I mean everything's you know

34:34 everything's historic or everything is this or that um

34:36 or to rebuild the other thing they do is if you want to rebuild something

34:39 you have to do some other trade and so this is the other thing's kicked

34:41 in is now the politics of what they

34:42 call affordable housing which means you know government housing

34:45 so now there's demands that you know a certain

34:47 percentage of the land be devoted to you

34:48 know government housing projects you know

34:50 in in the middle of what had been a residential

34:52 neighborhood and so that that's a whole snarl um and then on top of that there's

34:56 all the logistics of actually building anything which

34:58 is there's only so many general contractors right around to be able to do it.

35:02 And how many thousand homes were

35:05 many?

35:05 I don't know the exact number.

35:06 Many thousands.

35:06 I mean, for people who haven't, by the way,

35:08 experienced this, there's this great this really good movie on Amazon

35:11 called Crime 101 that just came out with Chris Hemsworth.

35:14 Um, and it's a great LA crime caper.

35:15 It was filmed in Pacific Palisades right before the fire.

35:18 And so, you watch this, it's gorgeous.

35:20 It's a gorgeous movie.

35:21 And you watch this movie and if you're in LA, you're just, you know,

35:24 it's hard to not literally tear up seeing because it that's just gone.

35:29 Yeah.

35:28 It's all totally gone.

35:29 So, you can get a sense of the devastation.

35:31 Just imagine everything in that movie got destroyed.

35:33 Um, and so yeah, so it's it's it's completely Yeah,

35:36 it's it's completely snarled up.

35:37 Um, you know, and I I don't know.

35:39 Look, we'll, you know, it's you're back to the age-old thing.

35:41 It's a single party state.

35:43 Spencer Grass running as Republican.

35:47 You know, the voters have a choice.

35:50 A lot of people whose houses burned down are not coming back.

35:52 Like, you know, this and again,

35:54 this goes back to the thing and like I don't I don't think the, you know,

35:56 we now know who the the fire was set

35:58 by this crazy guy who had his own political agenda, right?

36:00 But like who was a fan of Luigi?

36:03 It was Luigi terrorism.

36:04 Like we now we now believe that based

36:06 on based on the reporting and the indictments.

36:07 Um and so like I you know I think that that was likely the real cause.

36:10 But like you you do wonder if a you do wonder politically if a side effect

36:14 of this is to get responsible homeowners out

36:17 of the city permanently to change the voting composition.

36:19 So God, you know, like you can probably

36:23 explain the dysfunction without that, but you

36:24 do wonder if that's a if that's a motivation somewhere in there.

36:28 Yes.

36:28 So, we'll see.

36:29 You know, look, I maybe I should also say, look,

36:31 I because I can sit and I can I can do this for hours beat up on California.

36:35 California is also the most, you know, spectacular place on earth.

36:38 Like, it is like it's amazing.

36:39 I mean, it's it's it's a natural wonderland.

36:41 And then on top of that, you know,

36:42 we have two of the great global industries um in, you know,

36:45 culture in LA and tech and Silicon Valley.

36:48 We have a, you know, but apparently infinite gusher of money uh coming

36:51 out of these these two industries that can fund,

36:53 you know, both amazing things and horrible things.

36:55 But aren't both of those industries kind of leaking out of LA right now?

37:00 So, so, so LA, so my understanding is there's less film

37:02 and television production happening in LA

37:04 than there was during the last strikes.

37:06 Um, and so it's become related.

37:08 It's become almost impossible to shoot anything in LA.

37:11 Um, and you know, many many of the great movies

37:12 and TV shows in history of course were shot in LA.

37:14 That's where all the big studios built their lots.

37:16 It's the whole point of of being there.

37:17 And that that's almost all gone.

37:19 So the the the local economyy's just

37:21 been destroyed completely independent of the fire.

37:24 right?

37:24 It's been destroyed by the basically the crushing

37:26 of the um of of the production side of it.

37:29 Um and so so yeah, so LA was already reeling uh

37:32 from that and that that continues to be a big problem.

37:34 And then you know, look, the the there's this state, you know,

37:36 there's this new tax this new ballot proposition for an asset tax.

37:39 Um and the number of people in Silicon

37:41 Valley who are leaving the state is quite large.

37:44 And I would say we're it was a trickle and now

37:46 it's a stream and it's on it's it's becoming a flood.

37:48 And I know a lot of people um who are leaving the state

37:51 uh because they they feel like their assets are going to get seized if

37:53 let's explain this asset tax because it's

37:56 people are thinking it's just as simple

37:59 as you get an additional x amount of percentage of your income but it's not.

38:03 It's unrealized income as well.

38:06 So yeah.

38:06 So there's there's so there's lots unrealized gains.

38:09 Yeah.

38:09 So there's lots of different kinds of taxes that one can have and there's

38:12 you know the obvious ones sales tax when you buy or sell something.

38:14 There's property tax based on you know

38:16 paying property tax on on property you own.

38:18 There's you know all all these theories in this.

38:19 There's tar tariffs which are taxes on international transactions.

38:22 So you have to get tax revenue somewhere

38:24 and you can decide from among these taxes.

38:26 Historically the US didn't in the old days the the US didn't have

38:29 an income tax and then the income tax was introduced about 100 years ago.

38:32 Uh and and it was a big deal at the time.

38:34 It was a big deal.

38:35 It was like oh wait a minute I'm I'm getting a salary.

38:36 I'm getting paid at the time whatever it was $100

38:38 a month and you're going to take you know whatever ex

38:41 you're going to take a percentage of my income of money

38:44 that I earned and so that was like very controversial.

38:46 It started out I if I'm remembering properly it started

38:48 out it was like a 3% tax only on rich people.

38:50 You know this is a but what happens is

38:52 they they got the mechanism in place and then before

38:54 you know it you know 30 years later it's you

38:56 know you 50% tax rates and then by the 1950s

38:59 the marginal tax rates on on high- income people were

39:01 up in the 90s right and so so it was

39:04 a very big deal to get to be able

39:05 to get the ability to seize a percentage of somebody's income.

39:08 But we're all used to that now.

39:09 And so you know we all pay we all

39:10 pay we all pay federal income tax in California.

39:13 We pay a lot of state income tax.

39:14 We pay local income tax.

39:16 I mean, my income tax rates some, you know,

39:18 something like 60%, maybe at this point, 62 or 63% all in.

39:22 You're not paying your fair share.

39:23 Exactly.

39:23 Exactly.

39:25 ought to be ought to be ought to be ought

39:26 to be ought to be 99 clearly if not 100.

39:28 But we're all used to income tax.

39:30 Okay.

39:30 So, park that for a moment.

39:31 Then there's this concept of an asset tax.

39:34 And so, in various terms, asset tax, wealth tax, um or you might think of it

39:38 as a property tax that applies to everything you own,

39:42 right?

39:42 So, not just the land that your house is on, but everything.

39:44 Car collection, art collection,

39:46 art collection, all the stuff on the walls,

39:48 all your clothes, all your jewelry, all your everything.

39:50 Your house pets, like the whole thing.

39:52 It's also stocks, right?

39:54 Stocks, bonds, yes.

39:56 Everything, crypto.

39:58 How did this get proposed?

39:59 How is it possible that someone proposed something this insane?

40:02 So, this has been running, this idea has been running around for a while.

40:05 Um, by the way, there are other countries that have done this with disastrous

40:07 results because all of the people with any level of assets flee the country.

40:11 Um, and so Europe has been through this multiple times and you know we we

40:14 don't we don't pay attention to that, but you

40:15 know there's there's case studies from that.

40:17 It's worked out poorly every time.

40:19 Um, it's been kicking around for a while.

40:20 It it almost passed.

40:21 There was almost a federal wealth tax uh asset

40:23 tax in u 2022 that almost passed that didn't pass.

40:27 Um, and then the Biden administration uh said in their 2024 fiscal plan for 25,

40:32 they said they were going to come back and do a federal

40:34 wealth tax asset tax in 25 if they had gotten reelected.

40:37 Um, and then now in California,

40:39 there's a ballot proposition that a specific union

40:41 has put on the ballot specifically for itself.

40:44 Uh, um, um, the comp politics are weird because it's it's it's a bad ballot

40:49 proposition because it's one union where all

40:50 the money just goes to it and its causes.

40:52 And so it it's it's a weird one,

40:54 but this is the first of what's going to be a flood of these.

40:58 And and so the and and again, you can imagine the story.

41:00 The ballot proposition is it's a one-time tax,

41:02 5% of assets for people with a net worth above some level.

41:06 Um, and then that level, you know,

41:07 kind of moves around depending on who's talking about it.

41:09 And by the way, depending on what's included and what's not included.

41:12 And so I think in the current proposition,

41:13 for example, they exclude property, they exclude like real estate.

41:17 And I think they did that.

41:18 But stocks and bonds,

41:19 but stocks and bonds would be included.

41:21 Um, and so um yeah, if you so if you if you

41:23 were above a if you were above a certain and you know,

41:25 it's starting out with a with a high threshold on on on wealth.

41:28 And so today, just like the original income tax on day one,

41:31 it doesn't hit anybody.

41:32 Um, and then it's a 5% and of course the argument is these people make 5%

41:36 a year anyway and so more than that and so they'll they'll make up for it

41:38 and then and then they say it's a onetime tax but we know from the history

41:42 of the income tax that this is how it

41:44 starts and then we know where it goes right

41:45 and then you know you smash cut in the movie you smash cut

41:48 you know 10 years later and everybody's getting hit with it and people

41:50 are losing their houses because they can't it's just you know you can't

41:53 okay so let me give you the the twist on this in California

41:55 the twist on this is it's a specific punitive strike aimed

41:58 at tech founders and tech companies um and so they have the calculation

42:02 of the value that you owe is based on the greater

42:06 of your economic interest in your company

42:07 or your voting interest in your company.

42:10 Um, and so if you are the Google founders as an example,

42:13 um, you have what's called super voting stock, right?

42:16 Um, and because you want the company to have a long-term

42:18 outlook and you want the founders to to stay in charge.

42:20 Um, and so let's say I'm making numbers up.

42:22 Let's say the Google founders own 3% of the economic value of their company,

42:26 but they own 15% of the control value of their company

42:28 or say 55% of the control value of their company.

42:31 the tax gets calculated based on the higher of those two numbers.

42:34 Um, and so for founders in the valley, particularly private companies,

42:38 but also public companies where they have controlled stock,

42:40 if this tax passes, they go they instantly go bankrupt.

42:44 Jesus Christ.

42:45 But they can't possibly pay the tax because their their tax

42:47 bill by definition is is a multiple on top of their assets.

42:50 Um, and so this is on the ballot proposition.

42:52 We just filled out our ballot at home.

42:54 Um, you know, this is happening right now.

42:57 This is the first of these.

42:58 Um there will be I am positive a dozen

43:01 more of these the next time in California.

43:03 Um I am positive that this will arrive in every you know blue state that has any

43:07 sort of ballot proposition you know uh thing

43:09 where you can put things directly on the ballot.

43:11 I'm positive this is going to get proposed in every

43:13 other blue state over over the next few years.

43:15 It it's the obvious thing to do.

43:16 And then I am virtually positive that this is going to be a big

43:20 uh campaign uh platform issue for the 2028 election at the federal level.

43:24 And isn't it also set up that they can completely move

43:27 the goalpost for what is the threshold that you would get taxed at?

43:32 So if it's a billion dollars now, it could be $500,000 in six months.

43:37 Yeah.

43:37 Once it's once it's in, they just patch it.

43:38 They just patch the law

43:39 and they don't no one votes on that.

43:40 Yeah.

43:41 They just Well, it's a it's a Democrat.

43:42 So it's a so California is a Democratic supermajority in both

43:45 houses of of both the the the House and the Senate

43:47 in California and a Democratic governor and of course the judges are

43:50 all Democrats and so the the Democrats can pass anything they want.

43:54 Um and so they they get yeah they get they they get in with the force

43:56 of the of law from the ballot proposition

43:58 and then they then they modify as they see fit.

44:01 So it's a Trojan horse for a lot of these people

44:03 that are like yeah the billionaires like what about the thousanda buddy?

44:06 100%.

44:07 Well, you know, this is the classic thing where

44:09 Bernie Bernie stump speech used to be I'm against

44:11 the billionaires and the millionaires until he became a millionaire

44:13 and all of a sudden the stump speech is right.

44:15 This is that.

44:16 Okay.

44:19 So, a lot of people have gone to, you know, our governor um and said,

44:23 you know, this is going to be very bad news for the state.

44:25 Um and so, you know, Gavin, to his credit, says, yes,

44:28 I agree this is very bad news for the state

44:29 because if you you can if you're in California,

44:31 you can easily go to Nevada or Texas or Florida.

44:33 Can he veto it?

44:34 Uh no, he can't veto it because it's a proposition, not a law.

44:37 Um so there there's no veto power.

44:39 Um however, what he's doing is he's sort of signaling indicating

44:42 in his statements that that basically that the the the b his position b

44:45 you know running for president we all believe what his position is

44:48 going to be is obviously you shouldn't do this at the state level,

44:50 you should do this at the federal level because the problem

44:53 with this tax at the state level is you can flee the state.

44:56 You can't flee the country.

44:57 Um holy

44:59 Practically speaking, you can't free the country.

45:00 And so my my expectation is that this is going to be a very

45:03 big uh u sort of you know leftist populist uh campaign measure um

45:07 on the part of you know basically all the Democratic candidates in in in 28

45:11 and so a a yeah so an asset tax I think is coming federally

45:15 unrealized gains asset tax

45:18 important important to understand yes this is unrealized gains

45:20 um and so this is in the fullness of time

45:23 as this expands you own a small business you're a business

45:26 you own your business you own your business sitting here

45:28 by the way what's your business Who knows, right?

45:32 You know, unless you have like, I don't know,

45:34 active secondary transactions in your stock or you take your company public,

45:37 who knows what your business is worth.

45:38 And so, a government, this is go down the rabbit hole.

45:40 A government appraiser is going to show

45:41 up and decide what your business is worth.

45:43 Oh boy.

45:44 Yes.

45:45 Guess what their incentive is, right?

45:47 To have it be as high as possible, right?

45:49 Right.

45:49 Um, and so, and then they're going to and they're going to do this.

45:51 And then, by the way,

45:52 they're going to look around and they're going to say, "Whatever,

45:53 what other assets does he have?" And they're going to go through

45:55 your brokerage accounts and they're going to go through your art collection.

45:57 And then next thing, then they're going to want to know what's in your safe.

46:00 Do you have

46:02 jewelry in your safe?

46:03 Does your wife have jewelry in her safe?

46:05 Um, you know what?

46:07 You go right down the rabbit hole.

46:08 You know, oh, nice nice guns you have are any of them antiques.

46:11 We need to get those appraised.

46:13 Straight up communism.

46:14 Yeah.

46:14 And so, and that and and and that's actually

46:16 a whole separate argument against this is the level

46:17 of invasiveness on the part of the government to be

46:19 able to actually figure out what your assets are.

46:21 And and of course, what's going to happen is every person with any level

46:23 of assets is going to do anything they can to h to hide, right?

46:26 And so you're going to try to like do whatever level of shuffling

46:28 and then you're going to be looked

46:29 at as a criminal trying to evade paying your fair share,

46:33 especially by the proletariat.

46:35 100%.

46:36 Right.

46:36 Exactly.

46:36 And and you can never It's you know,

46:37 it's a little bit It's a funny thing in the current

46:39 tax system that you you have this thing where you estimate what

46:41 you owe in taxes and you send it into the IRS

46:43 and then they tell you whether they think you're right or wrong.

46:45 They they don't tell you what you owe, right?

46:47 They leave it to you to quote fill out your tax return

46:49 to estimate what you think you owe and then they judge you on it.

46:52 But at least with income,

46:53 it's like relatively straightforward because it's like

46:55 I have a salary or I have, you know, whatever interest payments or whatever

46:58 for a wealth tax, asset tax,

47:00 like you're trying to judge the value of your assets.

47:04 They're trying to judge the value of your assets.

47:06 Third parties are trying to value the value of your assets.

47:08 Like who knows what these things are worth.

47:12 Yeah.

47:12 Like who knows?

47:12 And so and so as a consequence like I it slides towards a very

47:16 totalitarian outcome which is you know how

47:18 how do you prove that you're not guilty?

47:20 How do you prove that the thing on the wall

47:21 is not worth twice what you say it is?

47:25 Right.

47:25 You can't.

47:26 Right.

47:26 Well, or the only way you could is you could liquidate it, right?

47:27 You could you which you probably have to do anyway to be able to pay

47:30 the tax but people say it's worth not even what you paid for it.

47:34 Exactly.

47:33 Right.

47:34 Because sometimes you buy something and then 10 years later it's worth way more.

47:39 Yeah.

47:38 So now you have to pay taxes on something that you paid a fraction of.

47:45 Yeah.

47:45 Well, and then and then think about this compounding over time, right?

47:47 So let's say it starts out as 5% one

47:49 time and then let's say it goes to 5% annually.

47:50 Okay.

47:51 So now you own a small business.

47:52 So now they're coming and taking 5% every year.

47:55 The one time thing is Everybody knows it's Of course.

47:58 Right.

47:58 Because of course they got they immediately come back

48:00 once they get addicted to getting that money

48:01 and then they have to balance that budget again.

48:03 Yeah.

48:03 That's right.

48:04 That's right.

48:04 And so and then just do the math on the compounding.

48:06 Let's say it stays at 5%.

48:07 It's 5% every year for 10 years.

48:09 What percentage of your business is gone after 10 years?

48:12 They just they just chew it apart.

48:14 Where are you moving?

48:15 So, where are you moving to?

48:17 So, my partner Ben uh and his family have moved to Las Vegas.

48:20 They are extremely happy.

48:21 Vegas is a good spot.

48:22 They are extraordinarily happy.

48:23 Um I have a lot of friends coming to Texas.

48:25 Good restaurants in Vegas.

48:27 They're very good restaurants in Vegas.

48:28 Very wonderful place.

48:29 Um good gun laws.

48:30 Yes.

48:30 Also that um a lot of outdoor You can buy weed.

48:33 You can buy a lot.

48:34 You can buy You can buy a lot of things in Vegas.

48:36 Um it's a very very entertaining place.

48:39 Um a lot of people going to Florida.

48:41 Um a lot of people going going to Nashville.

48:44 um a lot of people going, you know, all kinds of places.

48:47 Um in the in Europe,

48:48 what they do is they just go to another European country, right?

48:50 So they just and they have all these tax they have like Malta and these

48:54 crazy places that you can you can escape to.

48:56 In the US, there's nothing like that.

48:57 And if you try to if you try to leave

48:59 the I only have one friend who's ever left the US

49:01 and you have to pay an exit tax of like

49:02 45 you have to pay an asset exit tax already today.

49:06 You have to pay like 45% of all of your assets to to to uh

49:09 to no longer be an American taxpayer and to leave the country.

49:12 Um, and so that that's why

49:13 I'm not leaving.

49:14 That's why they think the well and then you get to this.

49:16 And so my answer is I'm not leaving

49:17 the US and furthermore I'm not leaving California.

49:19 Having said that, you know, I

49:21 So you're not leaving California.

49:22 I am not leaving California.

49:24 Having said that, you know, you do start to wonder, okay,

49:27 if like half the tax base leaves, you know, what happens to the other half?

49:32 And then if these other taxes pass, what happens?

49:34 And so like the situation is the situation is fraught.

49:38 Like this is the this is the this is the single most activating

49:42 thing I've seen happen in politics that has people in the valley cranked up.

49:45 And again literally it's it's not even so much the money.

49:47 It's they see their ability to actually have a company destroyed.

49:52 Can you start a tech company,

49:53 work on it for 10 years and still own any of it at the end of the process?

49:56 And and why would you do that?

49:57 And so that that's the thing in the valley uh that's really harsh.

50:01 Um, and then the other side of it is like how many if everybody else is leaving,

50:04 do you want to be the last man standing

50:05 and do you want to be the last remaining target,

50:08 right?

50:08 And so the game theory on that is getting tricky.

50:10 Um, and so like I said,

50:11 I think we're we're definitely from trickle

50:13 to stream and we're entering flood territory.

50:15 And what do you think is going to happen with this?

50:18 It's on the ballot.

50:19 Um,

50:20 what is your assumption?

50:22 The the professionals the professional telling us it's basically a 50/50.

50:26 Um, so that what the professionals tell us is that California,

50:30 California is naturally prone to be in favor of this kind

50:32 of thing because of the composition of the voter base.

50:34 It's the same reason we have a Democratic supermajority

50:36 in the in the in the legislature and so forth.

50:38 Uh, having said that, the American people,

50:40 including Californians, don't like socialism.

50:41 They don't like assets asset seizures.

50:43 And so, this thing started out life polling at like 45 or 50%.

50:48 What the pros say is for a proposition to pass,

50:50 it needs to start up polling at like 60%,

50:52 because the initial poll is before there's been a counter campaign

50:55 and the counter campaign can almost always knock the, you know,

50:58 the support down at least, you know, 10 or 15 points.

51:00 And so the the pros say there's a chance

51:02 that this doesn't pass because the 50% goes to 40%.

51:06 And then doesn't pass.

51:07 The counterargument to that is this is be part of the national mood, right?

51:11 Um, and this is a rolling thing and you know all the all the all

51:14 the all the narratives and all the all

51:15 the issues that you're that you're well aware of.

51:17 Um, so I think it's 50-50 and then by the way there will be like the mother

51:20 of all court challenges following this you know because

51:22 this is going to get litigated and then there's

51:24 going to be all the specific you know I mean the number of people I know who are

51:27 like figuring out all kinds of advanced maneuvers

51:29 to try to figure out how to shield their assets.

51:30 It's amazing.

51:31 So there's going to be like all kinds of crazy stuff that happens from that.

51:35 I I don't know what happens, but I kind of think this kind kind of goes like I

51:39 kind of think it's not even this this one is not the issue.

51:42 The the issue is what follows this one.

51:43 Um and and so the issue is what all the other states and cities do.

51:48 What else happens in California?

51:49 And then I think the big issue is what happens federally,

51:51 which is where I think this is headed.

51:52 By the way, Elizabeth Warren has already come out uh advocating

51:54 for a 6% annual wealth tax at the asset tax at the national level.

51:59 Unrealized gains.

52:00 Unrealized gains.

52:00 Unrealized% 6%

52:02 national level.

52:03 National level.

52:03 Uh, and I I believe Angel.

52:05 Um, and so that

52:07 she's such a cook.

52:08 So that's the that's the opening gambit.

52:10 A lot of a fair number of people in Washington have already signed up for that.

52:13 Like I said, the Biden administration wanted to do this.

52:15 Like they they they tried twice.

52:16 Um, so this this is not crazy.

52:18 Like this this is

52:19 the Biden administration tried this.

52:21 They tried in 22 to do a federal asset tax.

52:23 Um, and for some reason it was it was during

52:25 CO and all the craziness and people weren't paying attention,

52:26 but they tried and they got close.

52:28 Um, and then they they said in 24 in their official plan for 25,

52:32 they said they were going to do it in 25 if they had won re-election.

52:34 And so,

52:35 well, what would that do to businesses if they did it on a federal level?

52:40 It's everything we've been Yeah.

52:41 I just Yeah.

52:42 You know, nice farm you have here.

52:45 We're going to take 6% a year until it's all gone.

52:48 Nice house you own.

52:53 But what's the endgame, though?

52:55 This is what doesn't make any sense.

52:57 Fairness.

52:58 Fairness.

53:00 Fairness.

53:00 A complete dissolving of massive businesses is fairness.

53:05 Yeah.

53:06 I mean that.

53:06 And then what happens?

53:07 How where do you get your iPhone?

53:08 Well, what actually happens is everybody gets poor.

53:10 I mean, what what actually happens is everybody gets poor,

53:12 but that of course that's not the sales pitch.

53:14 So, good lord.

53:16 I know things are getting sporty.

53:21 Sorry.

53:21 I did not mean to come in here and be a little black raincloud.

53:23 That wasn't my Well, then also there's a problem that We people

53:28 look at what's going on right now with the Republicans,

53:31 the the the Iran war, which is extremely unpopular, very unpopular.

53:37 I mean I mean what is it polling at now?

53:39 It's something like low 30% of people that think it's a good idea.

53:44 So the Democrats come along, you know, and they win in 2028.

53:50 And then you have these ideas pushed forward because

53:55 people want something different than what you have now.

53:58 Y

53:58 and then it just opens the door to this stuff.

54:00 Yeah.

54:00 Yeah.

54:00 I mean look this is playing out in the UK right now.

54:02 Um so you know the the UK government just blew up.

54:05 Um so the K carrier Starmer is the prime minister a very very

54:10 so in this direction like he's got AOC Mumani sort of style politics.

54:14 Um he just he just blew up under

54:16 because actually because an Epstein because an Epste

54:18 scandal catalyzed it but he just blew up and so he said he's stepping down.

54:20 There are four candidates for UK prime minister to replace him.

54:23 All of them are to the left of him.

54:26 Oh boy.

54:27 And so um there and you know same thing is happening in France,

54:29 same thing is happening in Germany.

54:31 Um you know so there's a yeah there's something in the water um

54:34 that's pushing uh in this direction and then yeah and then you have to

54:39 so what what could be done to counter this?

54:41 I mean you have obviously the narrative has to change.

54:44 people have to understand what the ramifications of these things are,

54:47 what the repercussions are.

54:49 Yeah.

54:49 And then look, I I think you have to and and again,

54:52 this is where I have I have a lot

54:53 like I I'm still I'm still I'm still extremely optimistic

54:55 about the US specifically and and and here's the reason

54:57 is because I I would imagine anybody who's listening

55:00 to this is like you know there's two two ways

55:02 to listen to everything we've been saying which is oh

55:03 this these guys are out of touch and d the other

55:05 way to think about it is I own a home.

55:08 I own a small business.

55:09 I own a store.

55:10 I own a farm.

55:12 I want to you know I want to leave something

55:14 to my kids and they're going to come and take it.

55:16 And so I I think that like inherently that's a bad that's a bad sales pitch.

55:21 And so I I think as that becomes

55:23 clear like this just isn't this isn't because right

55:26 because specifically right now it's only in California

55:28 and everybody just kind of thinks California's crazy anyway.

55:30 But I think as this becomes a national issue I

55:32 mean my expectation would be people take a look at it.

55:34 They're like oh that clearly is leading in a direction I don't want to see it.

55:38 And then like I said and then as they think through the implications of like

55:40 okay guess what like they're going to be

55:42 coming and looking at my wife's jewelry.

55:43 Like do you think that things like this that they have to get

55:48 this bad before people get rational that sometimes you need uh an enemy

55:53 that's so obvious that people sort of unite and realize like oh

55:57 this is not the direction we want things to be headed in.

56:00 Let's figure this out in a better way.

56:02 I mean that has happened a lot.

56:03 I mean you know that that you know that is that is a sustained pattern.

56:05 I mean Eastern Europe you mentioned that is you know a lot of people

56:07 there don't do not hold any

56:09 of these ideas because they've they've been through it.

56:10 They have the direct experience.

56:11 Um, you know, yeah, these things are easier to, you know,

56:14 these things are easier to kind of not think

56:16 about hard if they're not right in your face.

56:17 Um, yeah, there's that.

56:18 But again, like I said, it's just, you know,

56:20 look, the US has had multiple Oh, okay.

56:22 1948, 1948.

56:23 Uh, so, um, 1944, uh, the, uh,

56:26 vice president of the United States almost became a guy named Henry Wallace,

56:29 who was an actual communist.

56:31 Um, who was an actual actual actual communist,

56:34 like an actually like in league with the Soviet Union, like for real.

56:38 And he almost became VP instead of Truman.

56:40 he almost became president in 45 and then he ran in 48.

56:43 Um and um and didn't win.

56:46 Um and so it was that was like a great example of like America had a choice.

56:50 And by the way that was that was after

56:51 the Soviets were our allies during World War II.

56:53 So they they were not you know they were actually quite popular.

56:55 There there had been a ticker tape parade

56:56 with Joseph Stalin I think in New York City.

56:58 Not not shortly before that.

56:59 Not not long before that.

57:01 Um and so you know like at least in 1948 they took a hard

57:05 you know American people took a hard look at it and said no not here.

57:09 So the amount of propaganda that people are

57:12 subject to in 2026 though is very different

57:16 and the social media propaganda is wild because people live in these echo

57:20 chambers and they you know especially like go to blue sky.

57:24 You want to think the world's falling apart?

57:25 Go read what people's opinions are on blue sky.

57:28 Like Jesus Christ they're advocating murder for people

57:31 that don't agree with what they believe.

57:34 I mean, I saw after Charlie Kirk got killed,

57:37 there was all these people that were like, "Do him next.

57:39 Do this next.

57:39 Do not this is horrific.

57:42 Someone just got murdered." It's like, "Yeah, do someone next.

57:45 Do this person next." And no punishment, no no banning, no taking it down.

57:50 It's like you've got these social media echo

57:54 chambers that get people thinking that these are

57:56 good ideas and then there's no one

57:57 around them that gives them a counternarrative.

58:00 And anybody who does is a fascist.

58:02 Yeah.

58:02 Now the good again I'll be I'll try to be the bright spot.

58:04 The good news of Blue Sky is they've selfisolated to Blue Sky.

58:08 How many people are on Blue Sky?

58:10 Do you know the concept it's probably I'm gonna guess a couple million.

58:13 Even Jack who created Blue Sky is like yeah it's a dumpster.

58:16 Yeah, he's he's disowned it.

58:18 Um so do you know the term you know the term heaven banning?

58:21 Have you heard of this?

58:22 No.

58:22 This is an old term Okay.

58:23 This is an old term for people who run

58:24 like chat groups and forums online which is okay.

58:27 You've got somebody in a you've got somebody in a chat

58:28 group and they're being a pain in the butt.

58:30 There's two things you can do.

58:31 One is you can ban them from it and that'll make them mad.

58:33 Uh and it'll, you know, be everybody will be miserable.

58:35 The other thing you can do is you can promote them to heaven,

58:37 which is you just let them interact

58:39 with bots that just agree with everything they say.

58:41 Oh boy.

58:42 Yeah.

58:42 And so you just let them like every day they have the best

58:45 experience of their life because they're

58:47 right because they're they're in heaven.

58:48 They're just they're saying every crazy thing and they've got 30 people

58:51 right there with them are like

58:52 absolutely they are absolutely correct on everything.

58:55 Wow.

58:54 And so in the industry the joke is

58:56 that blue sky is real it's real life heaven banning.

58:58 Um, it's it's it's all these people have ascended into their own private Idaho.

59:02 That's a good question about like how many

59:03 people are on Blue Sky that that's a bot.

59:06 Yeah, Jamie and I were just having this conversation about how many

59:08 of these conversations that we deal with with political issues are bots.

59:12 Yeah, that's also true.

59:13 There's tremendous amounts of bots and then there's also,

59:15 by the way, just pola is running crazy right now.

59:18 Piola how?

59:19 Um, so influencers getting paid.

59:20 Um Oh, yeah.

59:22 Yeah, that's weird.

59:23 And there's a there's a there I've been this is something we look at recently.

59:26 Um the there's a legal there's a legal loophole um which is uh you have

59:30 to disclo political uh uh uh campaign

59:33 finance laws you have to disclose political contributions.

59:36 Um if you're advertising a product you FDC

59:39 you have to disclose that for consumer fraud reasons.

59:42 Um but if it's just an idea you don't have to disclose it

59:45 even if you're getting paid to promote ideas.

59:47 If you're getting paid to political ideas social ideas

59:50 yeah because you know what I'm saying it doesn't fall it's

59:52 not a candidate and it's not a product it's something else.

59:54 Um, and so it's actually legal today to pay

59:56 an influencer to say whatever you want as long as it's

59:58 not an explicit endorsement of a of a candidate

1:00:00 or of a product and then there is no disclosure requirement.

1:00:05 Whoa.

1:00:04 And I and so I mean I think this is right.

1:00:06 I think a lot of social media now unfortunately I think it's it's paid

1:00:09 in it's paid influencers in the one hand

1:00:10 and then it's bot campaigns uh behind that.

1:00:12 And I think the environment has gotten

1:00:14 very and obviously you know Elon's, you know,

1:00:15 doing everything he can to fight that on X

1:00:17 but in at Facebook they're doing the same thing.

1:00:18 But yeah, but how can you fight that on X with with people that are being paid?

1:00:23 That's why it's so effective, right?

1:00:25 Because it looks organic, right?

1:00:27 And by the way, every every once in a while, people will see this.

1:00:29 Every once in a while,

1:00:29 a campaign will roll out and there will

1:00:31 be 30 influencers of particular kind and they'll

1:00:32 all kind of say the same thing and somebody

1:00:34 will do the screenshot and they'll show combine.

1:00:36 So, some sometimes they give or sometimes people

1:00:38 will accidentally cut and paste the the solicitation.

1:00:41 Uh they'll cut and paste the text

1:00:42 message in without removing the part that says,

1:00:44 you know, if you tweet this, I'll give you $5,000.

1:00:46 And so, every once in a while it pops out like that.

1:00:48 But you but the answer is generally you don't know.

1:00:52 Um, and if the if your influencers are creative, you're not going to find out.

1:00:55 And so, and if you're one of those influencers,

1:00:57 all of a sudden that becomes your living.

1:00:59 Yeah, that's right.

1:01:00 And a really good one.

1:01:01 100%.

1:01:02 Yeah, totally.

1:01:02 If you're getting paid $5,000 to post something

1:01:05 and you could post 20 things a day.

1:01:07 Yeah.

1:01:08 Well, 100%.

1:01:10 Yeah.

1:01:10 That's crazy.

1:01:11 Now, again, it's like, look, I mean, there have been,

1:01:13 you know, you know, there have been sponsorships forever.

1:01:14 There have been, you know, campaigns forever.

1:01:16 There's always been guerilla marketing is the term that used to get

1:01:18 used um you know for kind of these underground marketing campaigns.

1:01:21 You know, for example,

1:01:22 lots of brands hire college kids to go try to get their friends to use products.

1:01:25 So there there's always been vers I use the term pioli.

1:01:28 Remember poliola used in the old days was record labels paying uh radio stations

1:01:33 uh to air new music because you would try to fab you

1:01:35 know try to fabricate a new successful pop star by paying the DJs.

1:01:38 That was called Poliola.

1:01:39 That was actually banned um decades ago.

1:01:42 Um but um yeah there have been lots this so

1:01:45 in one sense this is just the new version

1:01:46 of that on the other hand this is a very difficult

1:01:49 version of that because the assumption is you're dealing with real people

1:01:53 but if you made that a law where you have to disclose

1:01:57 whether or not you're being paid

1:01:58 to espouse opinions that would change everything I I think so now again it's one

1:02:03 of these things you'd have to catch people um right um

1:02:05 right but if you made it a law and then you you could catch people yeah

1:02:11 then people would go to You have to put some scalps up.

1:02:12 Also, I believe on X, I think according to X's policies,

1:02:15 I think you have to disclose if you're paid.

1:02:17 I think there's a tag you have to really even for an idea, I believe.

1:02:20 So, again though, it's not it's not a law.

1:02:23 And then and again, there's a big enforcement problem, right?

1:02:26 Um and and then by the way, again,

1:02:27 it's I would say it's it's it's the influencer

1:02:29 thing and then it's but it's also the bots.

1:02:30 So, the influencers and the bots go together,

1:02:32 I think, is is the full picture because the the bots show up

1:02:35 and make the influencers look like

1:02:36 they're more successful than they actually are, right?

1:02:38 And and and there a tip off there.

1:02:41 you may have seen is you you'll see these tweets or or posts on whatever

1:02:45 whatever platform and they'll have like 22,000

1:02:46 likes and they'll have like 15 replies, right?

1:02:49 It's like Yeah.

1:02:52 Okay.

1:02:53 Yeah.

1:02:53 Like that's not right.

1:02:55 Yeah.

1:02:54 But and then but then again the the it's evolving and so now you're now

1:02:58 of course you're going to get a lot

1:02:59 of you know fabricated replies you know as people

1:03:01 Absolutely.

1:03:02 Yeah.

1:03:02 We were just talking about that too.

1:03:03 these crowdsourced campaigns that you can do where

1:03:07 you can hire a company and that company can promote an idea and they have all

1:03:12 these accounts that just start pushing this idea

1:03:15 you and it's uh very easy to do.

1:03:17 You could attack a political candidate.

1:03:19 You could go after this, go after

1:03:21 that, promote this, promote that and it's legal.

1:03:24 Yeah.

1:03:24 Now, let me give you positive side of this, which is go back to Spencer Pratt,

1:03:28 who by the way I've not met,

1:03:30 haven't donated to, but like he's using this, I think,

1:03:33 in exactly the right way, right?

1:03:34 He his entire campaign exists because he's able to go viral on social media,

1:03:39 right?

1:03:38 Because he didn't start out.

1:03:39 I mean, he's he's literally a guy whose

1:03:41 house burned down like that that that's the guy, right?

1:03:44 Um and he's able to um you know,

1:03:45 he's been able to go out with his message and he can go out, you know,

1:03:47 he goes out minute to minute and then he does his official videos and then he's

1:03:50 got all of his fans doing their videos and the whole it's all that's all free.

1:03:53 like to him that's all free.

1:03:54 It's all zero.

1:03:55 Um and and out he goes.

1:03:57 And so the fact that it's an unconstrained environment also

1:03:59 lets you know people do it do it the right way.

1:04:02 Um and so I I think there is that side of it.

1:04:04 And I think you know there's some balance here that has to be struck um

1:04:06 to contain the bad behavior but also make

1:04:08 sure the good behavior is is still possible.

1:04:09 Right?

1:04:10 Because right now it's almost impossible to find

1:04:12 out who's a bot or what's who's being paid.

1:04:15 And there you often times see people

1:04:17 commenting on different political issues in the United

1:04:21 States and you go look at their page it says they're from Taiwan, correct?

1:04:25 You're like, "Oh, this is that's interesting."

1:04:26 And that that's a good thing that Elon did,

1:04:29 but can't that be cir around with that and get around that somehow

1:04:33 or another and make it look like you're in America with a VPN or something?

1:04:37 Yeah, that's right.

1:04:37 You can use a VPN for that.

1:04:38 So, it's it's a cat and mouse thing.

1:04:40 By by the way, a lot of this this happens frequently.

1:04:42 Um uh both both scams and these kind of bot campaigns,

1:04:44 it'll be some other country and and it may not even be an organized thing.

1:04:47 It's just a it's just a you know, it's it's somebody who's getting paid.

1:04:51 It's just a it's just pure financial self-interest.

1:04:53 Um and so yeah, and then there yeah there are certain there

1:04:56 are certain countries where that that there's a lot of that activity

1:04:58 because you know it's a I mean country with a low you

1:05:01 know per capita GDP this is could be a very good job

1:05:04 for have right.

1:05:05 So

1:05:05 Right.

1:05:06 All right.

1:05:06 And so that's a challenge.

1:05:09 Yeah.

1:05:09 Yeah.

1:05:10 Yeah.

1:05:10 So, this is what you know, the folks at these at the internet companies,

1:05:12 you know, obviously spend a lot of time on this.

1:05:14 Um, do you go online?

1:05:15 Do you around and go on Twitter and read things?

1:05:20 Do you all the time?

1:05:21 Do you really?

1:05:22 Half man, half laptop.

1:05:23 How do you have the time to do that?

1:05:24 I mean, it's just it's just I mean,

1:05:26 so it's it's what's it's an incredible information source.

1:05:29 Like, if you if like for what you know,

1:05:31 everything we're doing is trying to keep up on every new trend,

1:05:33 every new development, right?

1:05:34 Trying to track you know,

1:05:35 all these all these smart people and everything that they're working on.

1:05:37 And it's just

1:05:37 so how do you separate the wheat from the chaff?

1:05:40 So there's two.

1:05:40 So I go back and forth.

1:05:41 So I I use I use I I use X and Substack.

1:05:43 I use Instagram.

1:05:44 I use a bunch of these things,

1:05:45 but I spend a lot of time on X and Substack in particular.

1:05:47 Um on X, both of which were involved in um on X.

1:05:51 Um I use both.

1:05:52 I so I let the algorithm do its work.

1:05:54 Um but then I also keep it curated lists um and uh you know

1:05:57 that that are clean where you know where I hand hand curate every every person.

1:06:01 Um and then I I'm sort of I'm sort of seminatorious on Twitter.

1:06:04 I have a I have a um I have a I have a one tweet policy.

1:06:07 Um I I follow you based on one tweet and I block you based on one tweet.

1:06:11 Um and so I'm like I for me it's like a real life video

1:06:14 game or an online video game and I'm just like on a hair trigger.

1:06:17 Interesting.

1:06:17 And there are people, by the way,

1:06:18 there are people where I will follow them based on a tweet and then

1:06:20 block them based on a tweet and then refollow them based on another tweet.

1:06:24 So I saw one yesterday that says there's a there's an Andre

1:06:26 Samsara Circle of Life uh on Twitter of how often you get blocked,

1:06:30 unblocked, followed, unfollowed.

1:06:32 And what do you block people for?

1:06:33 Uh just being an Yeah.

1:06:35 Yeah.

1:06:35 Just I don't want to Yeah.

1:06:36 I just don't want to see it.

1:06:37 Which which covers a lot of bad behavior.

1:06:40 Um uh Yeah.

1:06:41 But I mean it's it's an incredible cross-section of of of of information.

1:06:45 I mean we we it's amazing.

1:06:46 We have this like incredible resource with social media fees.

1:06:48 We have this incredible resource now with talking to AIS

1:06:51 to get information and and you know and there you know

1:06:53 and I'm not a utopian and there's there's downsides to both of those.

1:06:56 Um and and you can use them you know

1:06:58 that you can use them in in dysfunctional ways.

1:06:59 But what percentage of it for me they're great.

1:07:03 What what percentage of what you're interacting

1:07:05 with online do you think are bots?

1:07:08 I think I think all most of the people I f at this point I think most

1:07:11 of the people I like actively follow like

1:07:13 the on my curated lists I think they're real people.

1:07:16 So how do you do this curated list?

1:07:17 Do you have a you use different software by hand?

1:07:19 No, it's all just in the Twitter UI.

1:07:20 It's all just the just the standard just a standard thing.

1:07:22 So you have like a list.

1:07:24 Yeah.

1:07:24 Yeah.

1:07:24 I've got three on different topics.

1:07:26 Okay.

1:07:26 Yeah.

1:07:26 And so you just like go and check that and see what's going on with this list.

1:07:30 Try to read the whole thing.

1:07:30 That's smart.

1:07:31 I don't do that.

1:07:32 Yeah.

1:07:32 Yeah, that works.

1:07:32 But I don't really I don't go on it anymore.

1:07:36 Yeah.

1:07:35 It's just to me it just got too much of a bummer.

1:07:38 Well, you have a different way of satisfying your curiosity.

1:07:40 You get to

1:07:40 Yeah.

1:07:41 I mean, but it's also when I go on it's like I read so many things about me.

1:07:45 I'm like, I don't want to read anything about me.

1:07:46 So, I don't go into my mentions,

1:07:47 but then things about me are not even in my mentions, just in the regular feed.

1:07:51 I'm like, I don't want to read that.

1:07:52 So, I get that.

1:07:53 I get that, too.

1:07:54 Um, uh, what I finally figured out,

1:07:56 and it used to bother me, what I finally figured out is you,

1:07:57 you have to think of it like it's a Call of Duty, uh, lobby.

1:08:00 Um, so when Call of Duty first came out,

1:08:03 it was one of the first games that had the had the lob,

1:08:05 so the multiplayer games,

1:08:06 and everybody was on their headsets with the live audio for the first time.

1:08:09 So you go in, this is like 20 years ago,

1:08:10 you go in the Call of Duty lobby,

1:08:11 and there'd be like 12-year-olds just cursing you out,

1:08:14 right?

1:08:14 Just like every calling you every horrible thing they could think of, right?

1:08:17 Um, and just it's part of the art.

1:08:18 It's part of the art is just, you know,

1:08:19 they're trying to psych out their opponents, right?

1:08:21 And just be general Um, and so, um,

1:08:24 if you if you view it of I'm entering

1:08:26 the Call of Duty lobby and it's like, bring it.

1:08:29 Um, you know, in theory, you can moderate your emotional response.

1:08:33 Oh, you could definitely moderate your emotional response,

1:08:35 but I just choose to get my world view from other places.

1:08:41 Understandable.

1:08:42 Yes.

1:08:41 I just don't I don't think it's healthy for you.

1:08:44 And uh I just see way too many comedians in particular,

1:08:47 but I think other public figures as well who get

1:08:51 become very mentally unwell by engaging it all the time.

1:08:55 Okay.

1:08:56 So my friends and I have a theory on this.

1:08:57 We have a theory that there's two ways to live life right now.

1:09:00 It's either you're either too online or you're too offline.

1:09:04 Interesting.

1:09:03 And those are the two choices, right?

1:09:04 You have to find a comfortable medium,

1:09:06 but nobody ever does the other part of there's only the two.

1:09:10 And so two online is exactly what you're describing.

1:09:12 and you get too wrapped up in the fads

1:09:14 and this and that and you know Twitter's not real life

1:09:15 and and you know you get completely disconnected

1:09:17 and by the way I think that's happening to lots of politicians.

1:09:20 I think it's as you said it's happening to a lot of media figures.

1:09:21 It's happening to a lot of people in my industry.

1:09:23 But the other I also think there's two offline.

1:09:25 Um somebody once said the definition of a baby

1:09:28 boomer is somebody who believes what's on the television set.

1:09:31 That's a problem.

1:09:32 Yeah.

1:09:32 The baby boomer problem is real, right?

1:09:34 And so if you're not online enough, then you tend to believe, you know,

1:09:38 you literally if you literally believe what's

1:09:40 on the TV and what's in the newspaper, that's another kind of problem.

1:09:43 Yeah, it is.

1:09:44 If you're only getting mainstream media narratives, Yeah.

1:09:48 that's a giant issue.

1:09:49 That's right.

1:09:49 And so I but I think the problem is

1:09:51 at least everybody I know they're they're one or the other, right?

1:09:54 And and and they by the way and as a consequence,

1:09:55 they like live in two totally different worlds, right?

1:09:57 It's almost impossible for somebody who's too online

1:09:59 to talk to somebody who's too offline and have

1:10:01 a productive conversation because the two the two

1:10:03 offline person has no idea what they're talking about

1:10:05 because they lack all the context.

1:10:06 The two online person is too wrapped around the axle

1:10:08 on things that are like these crazy online dramas.

1:10:11 Right.

1:10:10 Right.

1:10:11 And so I I think that's actually a big part of what's happening

1:10:13 in the um in the culture independent

1:10:15 of like left versus right or independent of whatever.

1:10:17 It's just simply it's two different completely different mediated realities.

1:10:21 I always wonder like what is it going to look like in 20 years?

1:10:25 like what is this going to be like?

1:10:26 And 20 years seems like a long time,

1:10:28 but it doesn't if you realize that 2006 was 20 years ago,

1:10:32 which doesn't seem like that long ago.

1:10:33 2006 is like modern times.

1:10:36 It is.

1:10:36 I think the next 20 years is going to change a lot more than the last 20 years.

1:10:39 And I think AI is the reason why.

1:10:40 I think so as well.

1:10:41 And so I think I think all of this I think

1:10:43 if we're I think if we're back here in three years,

1:10:44 we're going to have a very different conversation.

1:10:46 And certainly if we're back here in 20,

1:10:47 it's going to be a very different conversation.

1:10:48 And by the way, I think very exciting in many ways, but but very different.

1:10:51 I'm reading a book right now on the yugas, the cycles of civilization.

1:10:55 Ah, yes.

1:10:56 Yes.

1:10:56 The caluga.

1:10:57 Yes.

1:10:58 Yeah.

1:10:58 We I thought we were in Caluga, but according to this book, we're not.

1:11:01 We're in the that Caluga ended in the 1900s and that we're in the next stage.

1:11:06 And so, it's got me very optimistic.

1:11:08 The rebuild, the rebuilding, the rebuilding,

1:11:10 the rebuilding after the after the end of the

1:11:12 rebuilding and like that we're entering into an age of enlightenment.

1:11:16 Yeah.

1:11:16 and that there's going to be some significant

1:11:20 breakthroughs with uh technology in particular that allow people

1:11:24 to have uh a much more balanced life

1:11:28 and perspective and a more much more balanced civilization.

1:11:31 Like this is there's the doom or gloom, right?

1:11:33 When it comes to AI,

1:11:35 there's a lot of people that think this is going to be the end.

1:11:36 We're going to be enslaved.

1:11:37 It's going to be over.

1:11:38 And then Elon's like, "No, universal high income,

1:11:42 you know, no longer there's no more poverty.

1:11:45 There's no more.

1:11:46 Everyone's going to be there's massive resources.

1:11:50 You're not going to have any problems with all

1:11:53 the things that people are hung up with in today's world, right?

1:11:58 In particular with communication.

1:12:00 You know if we do develop some sort of technologybased telepathy you think

1:12:06 that the internet is a gamecher technology

1:12:09 based telepathy is the ultimate game changer because

1:12:13 there will be no more frauds.

1:12:16 There's going to be I mean you you're not going to be

1:12:18 able to exist as a fraud if everybody could read your mind.

1:12:22 You're not going to be able to exist as a grifter.

1:12:24 Everyone's going to know your motivations.

1:12:25 Everyone's going to know everything.

1:12:26 It's going to be very strange.

1:12:29 But that could that literally could call in the next

1:12:33 cycle of humanity if you really think about it.

1:12:38 Yep.

1:12:37 I mean if you wanted to be completely optimistic of course

1:12:40 what do you think though?

1:12:41 Yeah look I mean so obviously that's a very there' be very very big change.

1:12:46 um the technology path for that is this you know so-called

1:12:49 neural mesh you know neural link is a step in that direction

1:12:51 right so Elon is serious about I mean not specifically about what

1:12:54 you said but he's he's serious about integrating so so-called brain interfaces

1:12:59 and they're working right and it's and it's and it's amazing

1:13:01 right because it's it's you know it's like he's accomplishing miracles

1:13:03 along the way like the lame can walk the blind can

1:13:06 see the deaf can hear like you know it's freaking amazing

1:13:10 what what that company and the other companies in the space are

1:13:12 doing and so that that that's headed in the direction of you

1:13:15 know you you've probably seen this is you know you can

1:13:16 you have people now you know quadriplegics who can play video games

1:13:19 with their with their brain and if they can play video games

1:13:21 they can write messages and and then you know people are also working

1:13:24 on the on the input side of it um so you know so

1:13:26 that's coming but I would even say look a lot of this is going

1:13:28 to change even without that technology right and so the um I

1:13:31 don't know if you've seen so the the the meta glasses uh they

1:13:34 just added the heads-up display um in the meta glasses and so

1:13:36 now you can have a heads-up display if you remember Google glass way

1:13:39 back when that kind of had that and but it was too

1:13:41 expensive it didn't quite work right so they now have in the meta

1:13:43 ray bands they have the ability to have a a heads-up display

1:13:46 and so you can be sitting talking to somebody and be getting messages

1:13:48 and then and then they have this thing a if

1:13:50 you seen the neural they have a neural wristband

1:13:52 um so they have a wristband um that can

1:13:54 pick up um the nerve uh transmissions uh from finger

1:13:57 movements um and so you can type um

1:14:00 in in one mode you can just like they can pick

1:14:02 up your finger motions and then there's another mode

1:14:04 where they can actually pick up your intention to move

1:14:06 your finger even if you don't move your finger

1:14:08 by picking up your nerve impulses off of your wrist.

1:14:10 Um and so at least in theory you could

1:14:12 be sitting completely still and you could be receiving

1:14:14 messages in the glasses and then you could be

1:14:16 responding u with basically you know sort of um

1:14:19 so using your mind to pretend to type effectively.

1:14:22 Yes.

1:14:22 Yeah.

1:14:23 So yeah triggering the it's like a small apparently it's

1:14:25 like a small training thing you have to go through

1:14:26 and then you can and then basically you can you can

1:14:29 start to do it and so you'll start to have that.

1:14:32 Um

1:14:33 here's where you just played Doom.

1:14:35 Yeah this is the new this is the new So they just added the screen recording.

1:14:37 They just added this Doom.

1:14:39 videos have have started to go crazy.

1:14:40 So you just played doom white talking to people.

1:14:42 Oh and then yeah.

1:14:42 So he's wearing the neural wristband.

1:14:44 So that's the neural wristband and then he's

1:14:45 moving he's moving and that's that's his hand

1:14:47 there and then he's moving and playing

1:14:49 the game with his thumb and with his fingers.

1:14:52 Ridiculous if you watch.

1:14:53 Looks like he kind of sucks.

1:14:55 Well, it also doesn't work.

1:14:56 I mean to just control it with just your thumb is pretty crazy,

1:15:00 right?

1:15:00 It's not that accurate.

1:15:01 So he's like scrolling forward to move.

1:15:03 Doom is a very old game.

1:15:04 He's out of practice.

1:15:06 Yes.

1:15:06 Yeah.

1:15:06 The fact that it works is kind of nuts.

1:15:07 There's another one.

1:15:08 Um, there's another one that's really funny, um, that got people all fired up,

1:15:11 which is, uh, somebody, uh, doing one of those.

1:15:13 It's like a, it's like a Mario jumping game.

1:15:15 Um, and they're playing it as they're jogging in real life.

1:15:18 Um, and the joke was, "Yeah,

1:15:20 I love this because I can finally like pay attention to the great outdoors."

1:15:23 Um, because you're actually running outside,

1:15:24 but you're playing the game at the same time.

1:15:26 So, um,

1:15:28 God.

1:15:28 Yeah.

1:15:28 So, that's Yeah.

1:15:28 So, that that that's all starting to work.

1:15:30 Um, my favorite um uh I'll give you

1:15:33 my favorite dystopian I'll give you I'll give Okay,

1:15:35 I'll give you live detectors.

1:15:37 Uh so I don't think you need telepathy to do lie detection.

1:15:40 Um I think you need very high resolution cameras um and uh that might be you

1:15:44 know that could be mounted um on your face or um from uh uh on headphones.

1:15:50 Really?

1:15:50 Yeah.

1:15:50 Yeah.

1:15:50 And then I think if you could get like infrared

1:15:52 if you could get high enough resolution cameras and if you could get

1:15:55 like infrared sensing you could pick

1:15:56 up somebody's um you know physiological change.

1:15:59 What if they're a sociopath?

1:16:00 Well then then they have a huge edge.

1:16:03 That's a problem in the world.

1:16:05 Isn't that a problem?

1:16:06 that could definitely be a problem.

1:16:08 And and then look, AI is going to Yeah,

1:16:10 AI is going to going to over overlay on all of this, right?

1:16:12 Um and so, you know, a big use for things like the metagasses is talking to AI.

1:16:16 The metagasses serve as input for AI because they the the the AI is

1:16:19 able to see what you see through the cameras and then it's able and then

1:16:22 you can talk to the AI through the microphone and the frames and then

1:16:25 you can the AI can talk to you through the speakers and the frames.

1:16:28 Yeah.

1:16:28 Right.

1:16:28 And so the all all of these devices

1:16:30 are going to start to become very magical because

1:16:32 they're all going to light up with intelligence

1:16:33 like like right that's basically what's happening right now.

1:16:38 So what's the dystopian perspective of the introduction

1:16:42 like the wholesale adoption of AI through everything?

1:16:48 I mean so I would say the doomers have an excellent marketing campaign.

1:16:52 So so I think you've you've probably heard all the dystopian scenarios, right?

1:16:54 So, it's it's the end of it.

1:16:57 It's sort of they're all going to kill us,

1:16:59 but at some point before or after they take all the jobs, flat cameras,

1:17:02 flat cameras, surveillance, surveillance, new forms of surveillance, right?

1:17:06 Um Um all the jobs, take all the jobs.

1:17:09 Um and then, uh you know,

1:17:10 now apparent apparently we're destroying all the water,

1:17:12 which is actually news to us in the industry because What do you mean?

1:17:14 Uh so this is the big the there's a big anti-data center push.

1:17:17 There's a big uh populist kind of revolt

1:17:20 in the country against building new AI data centers.

1:17:21 Yeah, I watched Kevin Olirri argue with Tucker Carlson about that.

1:17:25 Yeah.

1:17:25 So Kevin Kevin has this huge project in Utah and he's bought I don't

1:17:29 know the exact I think he's bought like 40,000 acres of land and the vast

1:17:32 majority of it's going to be just pristine land but he he needed

1:17:35 for the water rights and then he's um uh and then he's building the data center.

1:17:38 Um and it's a it's a weird it's taken my it's taken my industry by by surprise

1:17:43 because it's it's it's a bit of a weird

1:17:45 issue because if you're ever going to build anything,

1:17:46 a data center is like the most benign thing

1:17:48 you could ever build because it doesn't do anything.

1:17:51 Like, well, what is it for?

1:17:52 It just sits there.

1:17:53 Uh, it's to it's you just like rack

1:17:55 up thousands and thousands of computers in racks, right?

1:17:58 For what?

1:17:58 To well, to to run to run anything that run in computers,

1:18:01 but specifically to run AI.

1:18:02 The thing that has people freaked out is to run AI.

1:18:04 I mean, everything else, you know,

1:18:05 every other every other kind of in software runs in these things also.

1:18:08 But AI is the thing that's activated the

1:18:10 But this data center is the size of 2,000 Walmarts.

1:18:13 Yeah, that's right.

1:18:13 It's going to be very, you know,

1:18:15 it's going to be in the middle of no it's in the middle of nowhere.

1:18:17 It's going to be surrounded by natural beauty.

1:18:19 you know, it's going to be in 39,000 whatever 900

1:18:21 of the acres are going to be preserved natural beauty, right?

1:18:24 And so it's and you're never going to see

1:18:25 it um out in the middle of nowhere, right?

1:18:27 In the Utah desert somewhere.

1:18:28 Sounds like you're selling it.

1:18:29 I'm not I'm not I'm not involved in it.

1:18:31 I'm not involved in it.

1:18:32 I was just going to say Did you see Marty Supreme?

1:18:36 Did you see the movie Marty Supreme?

1:18:37 No, I did.

1:18:37 Oh, so Kevin Olirri from Shark Tank plays the bad guy in Marty Supreme.

1:18:41 Oh, does he?

1:18:41 And kills it.

1:18:43 It's a It's a legitimately great performance.

1:18:44 It's It's absolutely He plays a mid-century American businessman.

1:18:47 He absolutely nails it.

1:18:48 I I'll spoil it.

1:18:49 At one point he literally spanks Marty.

1:18:51 Like he literally like he literally because Marty's

1:18:53 like needs him for funding for his his crazy

1:18:55 all his crazy dreams and Kevin Ol turns

1:18:58 out his character turns out to be a total

1:18:59 I don't even know what the movie is about.

1:19:00 Do you know it?

1:19:01 Marty Supreme.

1:19:02 Yeah, sort of.

1:19:03 It's a great movie.

1:19:04 Yeah.

1:19:04 Watch it yet.

1:19:05 It's actually based on a true story.

1:19:06 It's about a hustler.

1:19:07 It's a movie about movie about hustlers making it in America.

1:19:10 Oh, okay.

1:19:10 And so it's like right after World War II and there's

1:19:12 this young immigrant uh you know immigrant family uh Marty um

1:19:15 Marty Marty Mouser uh in New York from the outer buroughs

1:19:18 and he decides that his path to fame he has many

1:19:20 many like plans and scams for how he's going to make

1:19:22 it in America but his big plan is to be

1:19:24 the world's uh champion ping pong player um and he's going

1:19:27 to make ping pong into a giant sport like basketball or football.

1:19:30 Um and he and by the way like

1:19:32 the the actor actually like apparently trained to play

1:19:34 ping pong for like six months uh heading

1:19:36 into this movie and is just like amazing.

1:19:38 It's incredible.

1:19:39 Most incredible ping- pong matches you've ever seen.

1:19:41 Oh, wow.

1:19:41 So, it's it's like it's like it's the American dream.

1:19:43 It's it's the uh Okay.

1:19:44 And then he he gets to um he gets he

1:19:46 gets to make it with Gwyneth Paltro along the way.

1:19:48 So, it's like a

1:19:50 Uhhuh.

1:19:50 It's her return to movies after after after a long break.

1:19:52 And when is this movie out?

1:19:54 This is out last year.

1:19:55 Um

1:19:56 this is it got cheated at the Oscars.

1:19:57 Um it got cheated.

1:19:58 It got cheated in Yeah.

1:20:00 fans believe it got cheated because the um the two other movies uh won all

1:20:03 the awards and it got uh one battle

1:20:05 after another and um what was the other movie?

1:20:08 Oh, Sinners won all the awards and uh Marty Supreme

1:20:11 got got boxed up but it's a it's a it's

1:20:13 I've never even heard about it.

1:20:13 It's a legitimately great movie.

1:20:14 The Uncut Gem Guys made it.

1:20:16 The Safty Brothers Josh Safy.

1:20:18 Yeah.

1:20:19 Oh, yeah.

1:20:19 Yeah.

1:20:19 Yeah.

1:20:19 Yeah.

1:20:19 So, it's got that So, it's got that Uncut Gems.

1:20:22 I love it.

1:20:22 It's It's got that energy.

1:20:24 Oh.

1:20:24 Um, but with this kid who is just like an absolute ball of fire,

1:20:28 determined determined to succeed.

1:20:30 Uncut Gems freak me out.

1:20:31 I love it.

1:20:32 Such a good movie.

1:20:33 It's one of the best movies I've ever seen.

1:20:34 It's fantastic.

1:20:35 It's it's in terms of a movie that like

1:20:38 gets your emotions going and gets you involved and gets your anxiety ramped up.

1:20:42 Yeah, there's nothing like it.

1:20:43 It's amazing.

1:20:43 And Adam Sandler was

1:20:44 And if you know anybody like that, I bet you do.

1:20:46 I bet you know a few gambling addicts.

1:20:49 100%.

1:20:49 And risk risk addicts.

1:20:51 Boy, gambling addicts are fun.

1:20:52 And hustlers.

1:20:53 Fun to watch.

1:20:54 crazy people in the make.

1:20:55 Anyway, so Kev, the great Kevin Olirri,

1:20:57 was already a great investor and he's a great actor,

1:20:59 it turns out, and he's building this giant data center.

1:21:03 Did you see Tucker's uh discussion with him?

1:21:05 I don't know.

1:21:06 I haven't seen it.

1:21:06 It's kind of interesting.

1:21:07 Might might be good to watch.

1:21:08 Let's watch it.

1:21:09 We'll see if you can uh pull a clip

1:21:11 of it because Tucker was essentially saying like,

1:21:16 "How did you get this passed?" and they said they voted

1:21:19 on it and it turns out it's like three representatives in Utah.

1:21:23 And Tucker's argument is like how difficult

1:21:25 would it be to subvert the, you know,

1:21:28 get a hold of three of these representatives and get

1:21:32 them to vote on this thing that's not good

1:21:34 for the people that he's saying you're going to be taking

1:21:36 American jobs with this thing and this is like Tucker's position, right?

1:21:41 You find any clips on it?

1:21:42 Well, I found the whole thing first.

1:21:44 This is 10 minutes long, but let's just play a little of it.

1:21:47 if you want to give you a quick while we're looking for it or Yeah.

1:21:50 No, let's slap on some headphones.

1:21:52 Yeah.

1:21:52 Listen to this.

1:21:53 There's a state.

1:21:54 That's no problem.

1:21:55 I'll That's no problem.

1:21:56 I can build it in Texas.

1:21:57 I can build it in Jacksonville, Mississippi.

1:21:59 But why, if it's such a good business,

1:22:01 would you be asking taxpayers to help pay

1:22:03 for it without giving them equity in the company?

1:22:05 Are you giving taxpayers shares?

1:22:08 No.

1:22:08 The investors get the shares.

1:22:10 But here's why they would do it.

1:22:11 But why would the taxpayers have I mean, if you want to start a business,

1:22:14 why why am I as a taxpayer forced to pay for your business?

1:22:19 I don't I don't get it.

1:22:20 Well, let's forget about data centers.

1:22:22 Let's go any manufacturing.

1:22:23 Let's say you're going to build um an aluminum sheet manufacturing facility.

1:22:30 You go to the government there and say, "Look,

1:22:31 this is a huge capex expect, you know, uh huge capex expenditure.

1:22:36 I'm going to hire 2,000 people.

1:22:38 I'm going to build a community center.

1:22:41 I'm going to pay a lot of tax

1:22:42 on the profits in your state when I sell the aluminum

1:22:46 and I'm going to hire all these people

1:22:47 and they will also pay tax and we will build

1:22:50 a school because our workers need a need a school

1:22:53 and and and and and what can you give

1:22:55 me to incentivize me versus the the state right beside

1:22:58 you which is willing to give me an incentive package.

1:23:01 No, no, I understand I understand that you're you're gaming a system in place.

1:23:05 You didn't come up with this, but I'm just trying to understand.

1:23:09 So the trade typically is jobs.

1:23:11 Okay.

1:23:12 But these projects don't actually Well, no.

1:23:14 No.

1:23:14 It's also jobs and taxes because you're going to

1:23:16 and taxes.

1:23:19 Yeah.

1:23:18 But but then you're getting a tax break.

1:23:20 So that doesn't really make any sense.

1:23:22 Only up front.

1:23:23 You're Tucker.

1:23:24 Welcome to America, buddy.

1:23:25 This is how it's gone on for 200 years.

1:23:28 Well, I don't know.

1:23:29 Lots of bad things go on for a while.

1:23:31 I'm just But I think at some point

1:23:32 it's worth assessing like why are we doing this?

1:23:34 So on the job that you're doing it because there's a competition.

1:23:39 Well, I run I run a couple businesses and we're not getting any tax breaks.

1:23:43 I think they're every bit as virtuous as data centers,

1:23:45 but I'm not availing myself of that and no one's offered and I wouldn't

1:23:49 take it anyway because it's not the job

1:23:51 of taxpayers to subsidize a private business.

1:23:53 That's a it's a fair it's a fair comment, but my job is to create a data center,

1:23:59 create 2,000 jobs for long-term and 10,000

1:24:02 manufacturing at the beginning or construction and I'm

1:24:06 obviously looking at at multiple sites and this won't be the last one I build.

1:24:11 I have

1:24:12 May I May I ask 2,000 jobs?

1:24:13 Okay.

1:24:14 So, relative to the size, the physical size of the project,

1:24:18 which as you noted is multiple times the size

1:24:20 of Manhattan and the power draw at peak,

1:24:25 this data center, your projections,

1:24:28 will consume about as much energy as New York City does,

1:24:31 but New York City provides almost 5 million jobs.

1:24:35 And this project, by your own description, would provide about 2,000 jobs.

1:24:41 I I don't see the trade.

1:24:43 You definitely got that calculation wrong.

1:24:45 By building a data center that trains

1:24:47 AI that provides productivity to the entire nation, we create millions of jobs.

1:24:53 Highpaying jobs.

1:24:56 AI is going to create jobs.

1:24:58 I thought it was going to eliminate jobs.

1:25:00 Just think about the new technologies we don't

1:25:03 even know yet that are going to be.

1:25:06 Should we keep going there or I think we get it.

1:25:09 That was a good cross-section of the of the of the debate.

1:25:11 Yeah, I think we get A lot of it was in there.

1:25:14 So, what is your take on that?

1:25:15 I have many takes on that.

1:25:16 Okay.

1:25:17 I know.

1:25:17 I saw you writing things down, so that's what I'm asking you.

1:25:19 I'm ready to go.

1:25:20 So, a couple things.

1:25:21 So, they started out talking about tax breaks for businesses.

1:25:23 I think that's a completely legitimate debate topic.

1:25:25 I think he's talking that one.

1:25:27 Tucker's right in the sense of some

1:25:28 kinds of businesses get tax breaks, others don't.

1:25:30 Right.

1:25:30 That's a completely fair thing.

1:25:31 I I I could argue both sides of that of that one.

1:25:34 I would say that that number one.

1:25:36 Number two, the energy thing I think is a little bit

1:25:38 of a of a of a red herring at this point.

1:25:40 Um because the the sort of claim, you know,

1:25:41 the claim is these data centers are going to pull they're going

1:25:43 to use so much energy and then they're going to cause local energy bills,

1:25:46 you know, to skyrocket.

1:25:46 And I think it it's very bad by the way when that happens.

1:25:48 I think if a data center comes in, it should bring its

1:25:50 own energy with it um or pay pay for the energy separately.

1:25:53 Um there is a new federal policy now exactly along

1:25:56 those lines that I think everybody's doing um in practice,

1:25:58 which is to to pair um to if if you do a data center,

1:26:01 you you bring your own energy.

1:26:03 Um so I think that can be dealt with.

1:26:05 Um and then um uh and then both of those connect

1:26:08 to what I think is the big underlying issue which they were kind

1:26:10 of dancing around which is what we talked about earlier with the rebuilding

1:26:13 of LA which is can you build anything in America anymore?

1:26:18 Can you can you build a factory?

1:26:20 Can you build a chip plant?

1:26:21 Um can you build a power plant?

1:26:24 Um can you build a refinery?

1:26:25 Can you build a pipeline?

1:26:27 Can you build housing?

1:26:28 Um and you know one of the common themes in American life

1:26:30 for the last 30 years is the answer to those questions is generally no.

1:26:34 You can't do any of those things, right?

1:26:35 So, take as an example, Silicon Valley, right?

1:26:38 So, all the chips are made in Taiwan.

1:26:40 Well, 40 years ago, all the chips are made in California.

1:26:43 Why are all the chips made in Taiwan?

1:26:44 Because in California,

1:26:45 the regulations got set so that you couldn't make chips in California anymore.

1:26:48 So, now they're all made in Taiwan.

1:26:49 And now we have to figure out what to do if China invades Taiwan, right?

1:26:52 That's really all it is.

1:26:53 It's just regulations.

1:26:54 Oh, yeah.

1:26:54 Yeah.

1:26:54 Yeah.

1:26:54 Yeah.

1:26:55 Yeah.

1:26:55 All the all the all the chip plants used to be in California.

1:26:57 And what what regulations specifically stop them from being able to manufacture?

1:27:01 Environmental.

1:27:02 Environmental.

1:27:02 Environmental.

1:27:02 Yes.

1:27:02 So you you have these you and you have these you

1:27:04 have specific issues on on environmental impact on things and then

1:27:06 you have these umbrella things with names like NEPA um

1:27:09 that basically essentially ban everything um in much of the country.

1:27:11 What was the negative consequences of them in terms of the environment?

1:27:15 I mean there there it's it's like any of these things.

1:27:17 There's tons of there there's always some there's always some substance to it.

1:27:20 There's always some risk of you know probably it's probably something chemical

1:27:22 leakage or something like that if it's if the chemicals aren't properly managed.

1:27:25 Um and then there's whatever are

1:27:26 the kind of superheated claims that surround that.

1:27:28 Let me give you the the ultimate story

1:27:30 on that which goes goes to the power thing.

1:27:31 Um, okay.

1:27:32 So, for the last, you know, 50 years, you know,

1:27:34 we've we we've been worried about global warming, climate change.

1:27:37 We've and specifically with that, we've been worried about carbon emissions.

1:27:39 It turns out there is a form of energy

1:27:41 which basically is unlimited energy that's that's carbon free,

1:27:44 that generates no carbon at all, and it's nuclear power.

1:27:47 Um, the the nuclear power was considered

1:27:50 such an attractive way to generate energy

1:27:51 in the in the in the 50s and 60s that a whole bunch of, you know,

1:27:54 big nuclear plants got built.

1:27:55 By the way, France ran for a long time almost entirely on nuclear power.

1:27:58 Japan ran for a long time almost entirely nuclear power but we used we used

1:28:02 to have nuclear plants you know getting getting

1:28:03 built in the US um the environmental movement

1:28:05 started they said they don't you know they

1:28:07 don't want you know oil and gas fossil

1:28:08 fuels um and so the Nixon administration around the time you and I were born uh

1:28:14 created something called project independence and project

1:28:16 independence was to build a thousand new civilian

1:28:18 nuclear power plants in the US by the year 2000 and the idea was a thousand

1:28:22 nuclear power plants will power the entire United

1:28:24 States with totally clean energy by the way

1:28:26 that's also the energy electricity you need

1:28:28 to be able to cut over to electric vehicles,

1:28:30 which could have happened a lot sooner.

1:28:32 Um, and then and then it's called

1:28:33 project independence because it means the US won't

1:28:36 have to be involved in the Middle East

1:28:37 anymore because we won't need the oil, right?

1:28:39 U and this was a response to the the growing

1:28:41 energy crisis in the 1970s at the time.

1:28:43 Um, how many nuclear power plants were built out of the thousand?

1:28:47 Rounds to zero.

1:28:49 uh they never got built because the Nixon administration also created

1:28:52 the nuclear regulatory commission which made it its purpose in life is

1:28:55 to stop nuclear power plants from getting built and the nuclear regulatory

1:28:59 commission did not approve a new nuclear plant design for 40 years.

1:29:03 No.

1:29:03 Is this because of Three Mile Island?

1:29:05 So then three Mile this is a great example.

1:29:06 So then three Mile Island hits and Three-Mile

1:29:07 Island in the for if you don't know

1:29:09 but it's it's a it was a meltdown

1:29:11 of a nuclear plant civilian nuclear plant on the east

1:29:13 coast and it becomes a mega story and this is like this is in the middle

1:29:16 of the this is in the 70s when

1:29:17 people are freaking out about you know Vietnam and

1:29:20 the oil shock and like all these issues and recession depression

1:29:23 and then on top of that this nuclear power plant melts down.

1:29:25 Everybody freaks out complete panic.

1:29:27 Um how many people died from three mile island melting down?

1:29:32 one zero zero zero zero deaths zero deaths and the total

1:29:36 how many people got ill though I don't I I I don't residual cancer deaths

1:29:40 I don't know that there's any evidence of any uh any

1:29:42 resulting illness because it just like it just melts down it just

1:29:45 stays there so like if you walk into an abandoned nuclear power

1:29:48 plant that's melted down that hasn't been contained you're going to be

1:29:51 in trouble but like if you're just like if you're just like

1:29:53 if you're like fuk another example is Fukushima I think they literally

1:29:56 have an argument of like whether it's zero or one uh people

1:29:59 who have been affected by Fukushima in Japan which is you affected

1:30:02 affected affected affected.

1:30:03 Yeah.

1:30:03 Yeah.

1:30:03 Yeah.

1:30:04 Well, this is people have uh I forget who did it,

1:30:06 but somebody went uh shortly after Fukushima and just

1:30:08 made a point one of somebody one of the Americans

1:30:11 who works and stuff went over there and he

1:30:12 just like went around and started eating everything,

1:30:14 you know, all the edible plants and drinking the ground water like it it's

1:30:17 these are these are in fact

1:30:20 but the consequences of radiation poisoning aren't instantaneous, right?

1:30:24 Like

1:30:24 Yeah.

1:30:24 Yeah.

1:30:24 But this is my point.

1:30:25 Three Mile Island has we now have 50 years of data.

1:30:28 And so if there was going to be some crisis based on that, we would know.

1:30:30 And there's no like excess cancer.

1:30:32 To my knowledge, there's no excess cancer.

1:30:33 There's no nothing.

1:30:34 I don't think anybody's ever ever shown any anything like that.

1:30:36 Let's find out.

1:30:37 Yeah, let's let's throw that into perplexity.

1:30:38 Look it up.

1:30:39 Which one?

1:30:40 Um are there any excess cancer rates that are linked to three island?

1:30:46 And then this the second question would be um are there any um

1:30:50 no acute radiation deaths or clearly proven

1:30:53 radiation-caused illnesses have been documented from three-mile island

1:30:57 but epidemiological studies disagree about possible small longerterm cancer

1:31:03 effects in nearby populations but that's from 50 years ago.

1:31:06 Look at that next bullet.

1:31:08 Uh immediate injuries or deaths.

1:31:09 Official investigations by Nuclear Regulatory Commission and other

1:31:12 agencies conclude that the radioactive releases were low

1:31:15 and that there were no detectable health effects

1:31:18 on plant workers or the public in the immediate aftermath.

1:31:21 And again, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

1:31:23 is against building new nuclear power plants, right?

1:31:25 Like these are not So the problem is the narrative, right?

1:31:27 The problem is that everybody freaked out and nuclear we're going to die.

1:31:31 It's new technology.

1:31:32 It's it's voodoo witchcraft.

1:31:34 It glows green.

1:31:35 It's green.

1:31:37 It's the same stuff that makes the bombs

1:31:39 makes the bombs.

1:31:40 Yeah.

1:31:41 Bad.

1:31:41 The ick factor.

1:31:43 Factor.

1:31:44 It feels bad.

1:31:44 Also, they're going to lie to you.

1:31:45 The government will lie.

1:31:46 You'll die.

1:31:47 And they'll they'll sweep it under the rug.

1:31:49 Skin.

1:31:49 Exactly.

1:31:50 It makes it makes it Yeah.

1:31:51 You have this.

1:31:51 And by the way, like that's it's understandable like you have you

1:31:54 have this like visceral response and I mean that's a real thing.

1:31:56 People something people experience.

1:31:57 It's a real thing, right?

1:31:58 But the result of that like let's just put yourself you're an environmentalist.

1:32:01 The result of that is for 50 years

1:32:02 we've generated all of this completely unnecessary carbon.

1:32:06 like the entire time like we like

1:32:08 that's that's that's that's the alternative, right?

1:32:10 And by the way, it's even worse in the rest

1:32:12 of the world where they don't they don't

1:32:13 even you know many many developing countries they don't

1:32:15 even have centralized oil and gas the way we do.

1:32:17 They they literally do wood burning inside their homes and that is extremely

1:32:20 Yeah, wood burning is terrible.

1:32:21 Extremely bad unfortunately because it smells awesome.

1:32:24 And here's another uh argument about this.

1:32:26 The problem is also that the technology

1:32:29 around nuclear power plants has evolved significantly.

1:32:33 Yet people are still locked into this idea of like

1:32:36 Fukushima which like they had a backup generator that went down.

1:32:40 That whole place is for 100,000 years.

1:32:42 Yeah.

1:32:42 Yeah.

1:32:42 But again, it's a cont It's a place.

1:32:44 It's a contained place.

1:32:44 And so what you

1:32:45 But isn't it leaking into the ocean?

1:32:47 I

1:32:47 I don't Yeah.

1:32:48 I don't know.

1:32:49 I think it's leaking into the ocean.

1:32:50 And I think um like Brett Weinstein told me not to eat tuna.

1:32:56 No, that's mercury.

1:32:57 I I think that's a No,

1:32:58 he's saying like radioactive tuna.

1:33:01 Go get sushi.

1:33:02 I think the mercury will get you before the uh before the

1:33:04 There's definitely that

1:33:05 before before the radio chest.

1:33:06 But here's my point.

1:33:07 So, we decided we decided to just not build nuclear power plants.

1:33:09 And in fact, we've been shutting them down and and by the way,

1:33:11 Germany has been shutting them down.

1:33:12 Germany shut them all down, right?

1:33:14 They've been shutting them down.

1:33:14 The the result of that, it's actually there's tons of ironies in this.

1:33:18 And so, first of all, you don't get you don't you don't get the energy.

1:33:20 You don't get like the safest form of energy known to man.

1:33:22 Like, you just simply don't get that.

1:33:23 most effective

1:33:24 most effective and cleanest and everything else and and least

1:33:26 and and by the way this is the other

1:33:27 thing is rank orderering all of this like rank order

1:33:29 any of this against oil and gas the downstream implications

1:33:32 of oil and gas or any other form like it's

1:33:34 just it's just it's super clear like and by the way

1:33:36 the environmental movement itself is turning and they're they're

1:33:38 actually rediscovering nuclear power and becoming in favor of it right

1:33:41 Steuart Brand who's one of the original

1:33:42 environmentalists wrote a whole book talking about how

1:33:44 this this was this whole thing was a huge

1:33:45 mistake so this is starting to happen but there's

1:33:47 all kinds of just amazing kind of downstream

1:33:49 things from that and so one is if you turn off this is what Europe is doing

1:33:52 if you turn off the reliable sources of energy,

1:33:54 then the theory is you're going to cut over

1:33:56 you're going to cut over to to to to renewables, which is wind and solar.

1:33:59 The problem is wind and solar are not 24/7, right?

1:34:02 Um and so you're you're you this is what Germany's

1:34:05 has done is you turn off your nuclear power plant.