Hormuz showdown: What will Iran do next? | DW News

0:00 The truce in the straight of Hormuz is looking ever more

0:03 fragile as the United States and Iran edge closer to direct confrontation.

0:08 The US and Iran are again trading strikes

0:11 as they v for control over the strategic waterway.

0:15 Washington says two of its warships have now passed through the strait

0:19 which carries a large share of the world's fossil fuels and fertilizer.

0:24 It says it sank several Iranian speedboats, the type of fastm moving vessels

0:29 that Iran's Republican Guard have used to swarm, harass, and attack shipping.

0:34 But Iran says that the US struck two civilian boats,

0:38 killing five people and seemingly retaliated by striking

0:42 oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates.

0:45 US President Donald Trump has since repeated his threat to blow

0:49 Iran off the face of the earth if it attacks US vessels.

0:55 So let's talk about how this might develop.

0:58 Megan Suckliffe is principal analyst for Middle East and Africa at Cibiline.

1:02 That's a private consultancy for geopolitical

1:05 risk intelligence and strategic insights.

1:08 Uh really great to speak to you Megan.

1:10 Let's start with Iran's latest moves.

1:14 What do you see Thran's strategy as being here?

1:18 Well, over the past few days,

1:19 we've certainly seen many developments in the Middle East and particularly

1:23 in the straight of Hormuz after we saw US President Donald Trump

1:27 announcing Project Freedom and their intention of the US to provide

1:32 naval convoys to commercial vessels in order to reopen this critical waterway.

1:38 We've seen Iran effectively double down on many of its diplomatic positions,

1:43 stating that this is effectively a violation

1:46 of the ceasefire that exists between the US and Iran,

1:49 engaging in missile and drone attacks targeting the United Arab Emirates,

1:54 and also engaging in attacks targeting

1:56 commercial vessels in the Straight of Hormuz.

1:59 most prolifically a Panama flagged South Korean operated vessel

2:03 that was empty at the time that it was targeted,

2:05 but at the time that we're recording is currently

2:08 still experiencing a fire as a result of these hostilities.

2:12 In response to this, we have seen the United States

2:15 indicate that it has engaged in attacks targeting Iranian small craft,

2:19 attempting to enforce the de facto closure of the Straight of Hormuz.

2:23 And effectively what we're seeing now is both the US

2:26 and Iran digging in and trying to enforce their respective blockades

2:30 of the straight of hormuz to maximize economic pressure on the other

2:34 in order to gain a diplomatic concessions in potential ceasefire negotiations.

2:39 So Megan, let's let's talk about let's focus

2:42 on Iran and the messages it's sending here.

2:45 Is it essentially trying to demonstrate how strong it is?

2:50 Exactly.

2:50 Essentially what we're looking at when it comes to Iran

2:53 is that when we saw the US announcing so-called

2:56 project freedom and the intention to reopen the straight

2:59 of form this potentially presented a major blow to Iran's strategic

3:04 leverage over this conflict indeed restricting the movement of vessels

3:08 through the straight of moose has been one of the primary

3:10 ways that Iran has been able to influence the global

3:14 economy and to influence the trajectory of this conflict.

3:17 So it doesn't want to lose that.

3:19 Therefore, its reaction is in keeping with that.

3:22 Essentially, it's attempting to demonstrate that it

3:25 has the capacity and the willingness to restrict vessels from moving through

3:29 the straight of Hormuz by directly attacking them,

3:32 whether or not they are accompanied by US naval vessels.

3:35 It's notable that one of the first hostilities that Iran reported that it

3:39 engaged in after Trump's announcement was

3:41 a missile attack targeting a US naval destroyer.

3:45 Iran is attempting to demonstrate its capacity and its willingness to continue

3:49 engaging in hostilities and to show that it will not back down.

3:53 And and behind that, I mean,

3:55 is this about deterrence, about leverage for for negotiations,

4:00 or do you see this potentially as preparation for something bigger?

4:04 Lit's likely primarily geared towards reestablishing leverage for negotiations,

4:10 but it also forms part of Iran's efforts

4:12 to demonstrate that it is able and willing to re-engage

4:16 in conflict with the United States if there is

4:18 not a diplomatic breakthrough that is provided on Iran's terms.

4:23 Something similar can be observed in the White House.

4:25 The US is also demonstrating that it is capable and willing

4:29 to re-engage in hostilities if Iran is not effectively willing to play ball.

4:35 It's very clear as well that both sides retain

4:37 the capability to engage in that type of hostility.

4:40 Iran is able to credibly threaten vessels from the air,

4:44 from the surface and from the subsurface in the straight of Hormuz.

4:47 And so the acute risks that commercial vessel operators

4:51 and crew are facing at the moment cannot be overstated.

4:54 And the risk of this conflict rapidly reescalating is

4:58 unfortunately becoming more and more likely as time goes on.

5:02 Let's take a quick look at uh something the Iranian

5:04 parliamentary speaker Muhammad Bagar Galibaf um posted on on X.

5:09 He issued a warning over the strait of Hormuz framing

5:13 the crisis as a a new power dynamic taking shape.

5:18 So he wrote the new equation of the straight

5:19 of Hormuz is in the process of being solidified.

5:23 The security of shipping and energy transit has been jeopardized by the US

5:28 and its allies through the violation

5:30 of the ceasefire and the imposition of a blockade.

5:34 He goes on to write, "Of course, their evil will diminish.

5:37 We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is

5:40 intolerable for America while we have not even begun yet." So Megan,

5:47 remind us just how significant Iran's control over the the Strait of Hormuz is.

5:55 How effective is it as a bargaining trip?

5:58 Well, it is extremely effective.

6:00 The Straight of Hormuz is one of the global economy's trade arteries.

6:05 Before the conflict began, it was the point at which over a fifth of global

6:09 energy supplies transited out of the Gulf and to global markets.

6:13 It's also effectively a maritime highway

6:16 for the export of critical goods like helium,

6:20 prochemicals that are used in the production

6:22 of plastics and fertilizer components like nitrates and ura.

6:26 All of these are jigsaw pieces that fit into the global economy.

6:31 And when they are taken out, when they are effectively sealed up,

6:34 it's not just that we see price volatility on global markets

6:37 as we have with say the cost of oil and liqufied natural gas.

6:41 It's also the risk of shortages that emerge from this.

6:44 If we look specifically at fertilizer, for example,

6:47 the Gulf monarchies are producers of approximately

6:50 50% of the globe's ura supply.

6:53 And without ura, you cannot produce fertilizer.

6:56 If you do not have fertilizer, then of course agricultural yields will decrease,

7:00 particularly for countries that are currently engaged in their planting

7:05 season where the temperature is right for that.

7:07 And so when we're looking at the straight of horses, of course,

7:09 our primary concern is usually going to be oil

7:12 and gas because that's where price pressure is felt most quickly.

7:15 But when we're looking at the broader picture,

7:17 it's very clear that the straightfor is effectively a global trade artery.

7:22 And the fact that Iran has been able to essentially

7:25 close this waterway is a major bargaining chip for them.

7:29 Not only in terms of the economic pressure

7:31 that it exacts exacts on the United States

7:34 and on the United States's allies both in the Gulf

7:37 who currently can't export their goods to global markets,

7:40 but also in Europe and Latin America, subsaharan Africa, and in Asia,

7:45 where of course those products can't be

7:46 bought because they're simply not being exported.

7:49 There is another way in which Iran is leveraging this control though and that is

7:53 through exacting tolls on vessels that would hope

7:55 to move through the straight of four moves.

7:57 Now it's not exactly clear how many vessels Iran is

8:00 allowing to move through approved shipping channels on a daily basis

8:05 but industry experts indicate that there are approximately a dozen

8:08 vessels on a daily basis that are potentially granted safe passage.

8:12 This is almost always in exchange for the payment

8:15 of multi-million dollar tolls either in the form

8:18 of flat fees or in the form of essentially a toll per barrel of liquid,

8:23 usually gas and oil that is being exported via a vessel.

8:27 This is a very lucrative loophole that Iran has established

8:31 and something it's likely going to hope to hold on to.

8:34 And so when we're talking about just

8:36 how important the straight of form moves is,

8:38 we're not just looking at a waterway that is vital to the global economy.

8:41 It's also one that is becoming increasingly vital to Iran's economic

8:45 stability based on the major pressure that it is currently facing.

8:48 Yeah.

8:49 Which brings us on to Project Freedom,

8:50 which you which you you talked about earlier.

8:53 Uh President Trump announced it on Monday,

8:55 saying the US will help guide ships um that have

8:58 been stranded by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

9:02 Iran's um response was immediate.

9:04 It said that it would attack any foreign armed

9:07 force that tried to approach or enter the straight.

9:09 Um, and then it said safe passage

9:12 through the straight must be coordinated with Iran.

9:16 I mean, is that realistic for Iran to demand something like that?

9:21 Well, the question is not so much whether

9:22 or not it's realistic for Iran to demand it.

9:25 The question is whether or not it's realistic

9:27 for Iran to be able to implement it.

9:29 And it's very clear that Iran is demonstrating that it is ready,

9:32 willing, and able to do so.

9:34 It continues to levy tolls on vessels

9:36 that are moving through the straight of Hormuz.

9:38 and it has demonstrated that it is capable of engaging in attacks that can

9:43 critically damage vessels that do not receive

9:45 permission from the Iranian authorities to do so.

9:48 As we saw with the incident of the South Korean operated tanker last night,

9:53 vessel operators will be extremely aware of those capabilities

9:56 and of the threats that their vessels, crew, and cargo will face if they attempt

10:01 to move through the straight of Hormuz without

10:03 explicit permission from the Iranian authorities or without

10:07 a substantial naval guard from the United States.

10:11 But even if we did see the United States being able to provide a naval escort

10:16 to every vessel that hoped to move through

10:18 the straight of form on a daily basis,

10:21 of course that would be extremely expensive for the United States.

10:24 It would be a very slow process and so the congestion that we're seeing

10:27 for global supply chains would be unlikely to abate in the very short term.

10:32 But it's also not a guarantee of safe passage.

10:35 Essentially, when we're looking at the threats that Iran can pose,

10:38 it can attack from the air with missile or drones.

10:40 It can attack from the surface

10:42 with unmanned surface vehicles or small attack craft.

10:45 And it can uh attack from under the water using submarines or indeed sea mines.

10:50 That's an extremely complex situation for any vessel to move through,

10:54 let alone a commercial one that maybe doesn't have advanced defense systems.

10:58 And so, while it may not necessarily be realistic for Iran to claim that it

11:03 could critically destabilize and damage any vessel

11:07 that moved through the waterway without explicit permission,

11:10 the fact that that threat is there, that it has been demonstrated,

11:13 and it would almost certainly impact vessels if they were targeted,

11:17 that's likely enough to destabilize global markets

11:19 and to deter a broad resumption of shipping activity,

11:22 even with US naval escorts.

11:24 Yeah, President Trump is describing Project Freedom as humanitarian,

11:28 but um also as you've been saying, you know, critics are saying it's risky.

11:31 It's escalatory.

11:33 Um and at best it would be a temporary relief.

11:36 I just wanted to take a listen to what

11:37 a a captain of one of the ships in the strait said.

11:41 He's been stuck there uh since the start of this conflict.

11:44 Let's take a listen.

11:47 Well, we are total 24 crew member on board and we

11:50 are stuck here ever since the war started on 28th February.

11:54 uh and the situation has been uh you know various

11:57 ups and downs uh are there ever since the war started.

12:02 So uh but uh ever since there

12:05 was a ceasefire announced situation was pretty normal.

12:08 No attacks were uh there but past few days it's been choppy again you know

12:14 it is quite disturbing and my crew morale is again you know uh going down.

12:20 We are not uh certain about this news you know we haven't received

12:25 any concrete news so far regarding

12:28 this transit through straight of hormos because

12:31 we are still awaiting uh confirmation

12:34 from various maritime authorities and our company

12:36 office and there are hundreds of ships around me most of them are

12:40 oil tanker and there are containers as well but yes earlier we have

12:46 passed this straight 100th time you know and it was it was pretty

12:49 normal you know and it's my my I have around 28 years of sailing

12:55 experience so we have uh we have transited through these areas several times

13:01 so he talked about their morale uh going down I have to say he sounded quite

13:06 calm didn't he after being stuck for so long but if we can we can talk

13:10 about uh sort of the idea of of of project freedom and and what it might

13:15 lead to I mean is there a a risk

13:18 of triggering direct confrontation here if this continues.

13:24 There absolutely is.

13:25 Iran has been very clear that it sees US efforts to reopen the Strait of Hummus

13:30 as a violation of the ceasefire that exists

13:33 currently between the United States and Iran.

13:36 And it's also notable that essentially Iran not only views

13:40 this as a violation in the context of the ceasefire itself,

13:44 but also in the context of the ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports.

13:49 It was Iran's foreign minister Abbas Aragi

13:52 who characterized essentially project freedom as a military

13:56 solution to a political problem and therefore one that would not be effective.

14:01 Iran views the incidents that we're seeing at the moment

14:04 in the Persian Gulf and in the straight of four moods as well as in the Gulf

14:07 of Oman as effectively the result of diplomatic

14:11 tensions and as something that cannot be resolved

14:13 by US force and that if the US attempts

14:16 to do that, attempts to physically reopen the Strait

14:20 of Hormuz without engaging in negotiations with Iran,

14:23 that that will constitute a resumption of conflict.

14:26 If we see that occurring, we can expect Iran to respond with a resumption

14:30 of attacks targeting Israel, targeting the Gulf,

14:33 and targeting US military installations in the region,

14:37 as well as commercial and naval vessels

14:39 that are operating in proximity to Iranian waters.

14:42 Essentially, the ceasefire that exists between the US

14:45 and Iran at the moment is under unprecedented pressure,

14:49 and I'm not particularly optimistic when it comes

14:51 to the ability of this agreement to survive,

14:55 particularly when we're not seeing continued engagement between the US and Iran,

14:59 either directly or indirectly through regional mediators.

15:03 So, do you see any realistic diplomatic offramps at the moment?

15:08 Well, I think that there is always the chance

15:10 for diplomacy to provide an off-ramp to escalating tensions,

15:14 particularly before those tensions have turned into a resumption

15:18 of the conflict that we saw before the ceasefire began.

15:22 But that's not to say that those diplomatic offroads are the guaranteed outcome

15:27 of this dynamic or that they will magically appear out of thin air.

15:30 No, rather both parties would have to demonstrate

15:33 that they are interested in diplomacy and that they're

15:36 willing to soften some of their negotiating positions

15:39 in order to bridge the gap between them.

15:41 We haven't seen that approach from the United States

15:44 and we haven't seen that approach from Iran just yet.

15:46 And so in the coming days,

15:48 if there is any indication of further talks of Pakistan attempting to revive

15:53 this diplomatic file and build bridges

15:55 between the US and Iran's negotiating positions,

15:58 then it's possible there will be offramps there.

16:00 But unfortunately, without productive and meaningful engagement,

16:03 it's unlikely that they're going to come about and resolve the situation

16:06 that we're seeing evolve so rapidly in the straight of Hormuz.

16:10 A quick question, Megan, about the United Arab Emirates.

16:12 Again, you'd mentioned this earlier.

16:14 It's accused Iran of attacking it with a barrage

16:16 of missiles and drones which set an oil refinery um ablaze.

16:20 Now these attacks marked the first on the UAE

16:22 since the ceasefire was announced on the 8th of April.

16:26 Just again given that this is sort of you

16:28 know a major regional uh uh uh situation.

16:31 How significant is that escalation?

16:36 It's very significant because of course this is the first

16:39 incident of missile and drone fire that we've seen since

16:42 the ceasefire came into force between the United States

16:45 and Iran and brought a degree of calm to the region.

16:49 It is particularly significant because not only did it target the UAE,

16:52 arguably one of the United States's closest allies in the region,

16:56 but it also targeted an oil depot in Fujara.

16:59 Now, this is very significant because

17:03 for those of you not aware of the UAE's geography,

17:06 most of the UAE is located before the Straight of Hormuz.

17:09 It's located on the Persian Gulf.

17:11 But Fujara is significant because it's located

17:14 on the other side of the straight of Hormuz.

17:16 And as an oil depot,

17:18 it could potentially allow the UAE to a certain degree to bypass the blockade

17:23 of the Straight of Hormuz by shipping oil out directly into the Gulf of Oman.

17:29 This is likely part of why we've seen Iran engaging in these hostilities.

17:33 Not only is it attempting to destabilize the operational environment

17:37 in the UAE and to exacerbate economic pressure on the Emiratis,

17:41 but it's also attempting to disrupt the operationality of facilities

17:46 that potentially would allow the UAE and its Gulf

17:49 allies from exporting oil beyond the straight of moose

17:52 to bypass the essential blockade that Iran has put in place.

17:56 It's showing that Iran is not only

17:58 engaging in hostilities that address current tensions,

18:01 but it's also Iran attempting to futureproof its blockade of the straightforward

18:06 moves to maximize its leverage in the medium to long term.

18:09 Megan Suckler, a for Middle East and Africa expert at Cibiline.

18:13 Megan, it's been a pleasure to speak to you today.

18:16 Thank you so much.

18:18 Thank you very much.

18:21 So, what comes next?

18:22 Can the ceasefire hold despite the bombs and bluster on both sides?

18:26 Or is the leadership on either side really in control of events?

18:30 Let us know what you think in the comments.

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18:34 And remember, you can find more news on our website.

18:37 That'sdw.com.

18:38 I'm Anna Cooper McKinnon.

18:40 Thanks for being here.